There is no reason to believe that they would be counted anywhere. Not that it matters but it's even debatable whether the studios will actually have sold them, at shipping time, since blockbuster will likely have a return deal. They will be counted by Nielsen as Blockbuster sell them.

As far as I remember the only time a studio have used shipped (to stores) as opposed to sold (to customers) was the initial announcement of Casino Royale reaching 100.000 shipped which Sony tried to make look as sold.

The rental chains typically don't buy their movies but have rental sharing agreements: they get the movies (virtually) for free but pay studios part of the rental revenue. So these revenues would not be counted as sales anywhere.

(Given that BD is more rental-oriented with the PS3 crowd, this mechanism probably leads to an under-estimation of BD's performance.)

Here we go again.

A buy day (and I've never participated in one) generates noticeable ranks. It's changes in RANKS that you see on the sites and changes in RANKS that are being discussed and changes in RANKS that are the goal. The fact that the sales of a thousand (or so) disks spread out over several release dates means that a couple of hundred sales for each release date is the result. Yes HD media sales are slow but a couple of hundred disks, that mostly would have been ordered anyway, will not be noticeable.

It's seems to be a fixed idea about cancellations for some. Maybe you've tried it yourself since you're so fixated with the idea?

Furthermore. It' pretty clear that a huge amount of Amazons sales be it HD or SD is from pre-orders. That and deep catalogue titles that together add up.

I've never participated in a buy day, myself. I think they are a pretty stupid way to waste money (for the sales that are real), and in the long run they make a format have a lot of peaks and valleys instead of stable sales.

You have as much proof that the pre-orders aren't canceled as I do that they are. Just relax.

Anybody like to guess this Friday's percentage and top 3?

Blu-ray
Black Snake Moan
Hustle & Flow

HD DVD
American Me
Being John Malkovich
Big Lebowski, The
Black Snake Moan
Bulletproof
Dead Silence
Freedom Vol. 1
Hustle & Flow
Mallrats
Meet Joe Black
Mystery Men
Watcher, The

New theatrical releases are underlined.

How can a 43% market share be "outstanding" for HD DVD in a week where they had 12 or 13 exclusives to no BD exclusives, and only two neutral titles, especially when they've had a $100+ price drop on players for over a month?
Do you think a dozen catalog exclusives are suddenly going to completely neutralize Blu-ray's user base advantage?

Catalog titles have never had a significant impact on the weekly sales numbers. Even The Matrix didn't pull crazy big numbers.

The rental chains typically don't buy their movies but have rental sharing agreements: they get the movies (virtually) for free but pay studios part of the rental revenue. So these revenues would not be counted as sales anywhere.

(Given that BD is more rental-oriented with the PS3 crowd, this mechanism probably leads to an under-estimation of BD's performance.)

You are right, sorry my mistake. I haven't been in a Blockbuster for probably 5 years. Seemed to remember that they sold as well as rented. The original question was obviously if copies meant to be rented would count as sold. As you point out they will not.

I've never heard of oppo till I visited this board.

Me neither.

I've also never heard of Blockbuster going BR except on this board.

Let's face it, the 'war' isn't taking place for the majority of consumers.

Holidays will be telling with lots of in-store promoting taking place and sales.

Do you think a dozen catalog exclusives are suddenly going to completely neutralize Blu-ray's user base advantage?Some people certainly thought so. But it means Uni spent a bunch more money just to throw crap out there that's not even sticking.
Catalog titles have never had a significant impact on the weekly sales numbers. Even The Matrix didn't pull crazy big numbers.That didn't stop almost the whole HD DVD fanbase from treating it like the messiah. Some of them still consider it HD DVD's ace in the hole.

Anyway, my prediction for the week is 64/36 BD.

My guess:

59/41 BD.

Top 3
1. Bridge to Terabithia BD
2. Ghost Rider BD
3. Planet Earth HD

59/41 BD.

Top 3
1. Bridge to Terabithia BD
2. Ghost Rider BD
3. Planet Earth HD
This is your estimate rather than actuals, right?

This is your estimate rather than actuals, right?

Of course - I'm not prescient (yet!). ;)

I've edited the post to clarify it.

The stuff universal sent out may not make the top 5 of each list, but at the same time, there's only 2 new BD releases that are also available on HD. This should lower the sales volume for BD, at the same time, because there's a lot of new red titles (even though catalog releases), there will be some buying interest and even at lower volumes, added to the (my guess) low BD buying volume, this will sort of settle around 55:45.

Lets not forget that the red camp did sell some $199 HD-A2s, and that factors in as well.

Me neither.

I've also never heard of Blockbuster going BR except on this board.

Let's face it, the 'war' isn't taking place for the majority of consumers.

Holidays will be telling with lots of in-store promoting taking place and sales.
Ha, you don't read a lot of newspapers. if you subscribe to any major newspaper, or read USA Today, IBD, WSJ, Forbes, TV-Guide, Fortune, Barrons, you would have a good chance of reading this.

Ha, you don't read a lot of newspapers. if you subscribe to any major newspaper, or read USA Today, IBD, WSJ, Forbes, TV-Guide, Fortune, Barrons, you would have a good chance of reading this.

I know! The only time these formats were covered by mainstream media is when both were released and when Blockbuster dropped a death kick on HD-DVD.

I know! The only time these formats were covered by mainstream media is when both were released and when Blockbuster dropped a death kick on HD-DVD.

Seems your opinoin is not shared by all:

"Based on his work in the report, "The Future of High-Definition TV -2007 Edition," Erickson states that the announcement will ultimately have limited impact: "The retail video rental business remains in a steady decline. Though this announcement appears to be a PR coup for Blu-ray Disc, it is doubtful that it will actually drive increased hardware penetration. Actual sales indicate that mainstream consumers are generally happy with DVD, and still find both blue formats' standalone players too expensive for mass adoption, regardless of content availability."

http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/blues-for-high-def/hd-dvd-walking-tightrope-but-still-moving-forward-274895.php

Seems your opinoin is not shared by all:

"Based on his work in the report, "The Future of High-Definition TV -2007 Edition," Erickson states that the announcement will ultimately have limited impact: "The retail video rental business remains in a steady decline. Though this announcement appears to be a PR coup for Blu-ray Disc, it is doubtful that it will actually drive increased hardware penetration. Actual sales indicate that mainstream consumers are generally happy with DVD, and still find both blue formats' standalone players too expensive for mass adoption, regardless of content availability."

http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/blues-for-high-def/hd-dvd-walking-tightrope-but-still-moving-forward-274895.php
I guess we'll find out Friday.

Seems your opinoin is not shared by all:

Well of course not everyone will agree on how damaging the blockbuster annoucement was to hd dvd. But for every article you can find dismissing the announcement as being trivial, there are probably 4-5 that say the announcement was a serious setback for hd dvd.

The :war: is going to go on for quite a while, with each side putting points on the board.

We see the blockbuster announcement, a plus for BD, but then The ceo gets fired, they close more stores and say that it will not effect online rentals,

We see Amazon with the HD announcement, plus for HD

We see the EU investigation could be a negative for BD

The Studio's don't see it as black and white as the fanboys on both sides do

We have PS3 sales creating an installed base of BD capable players putting the ration aprox 5:1 yet sales, and rentals don't show that, more like 2:1 and no matter how you spin that, that is a concern, if Sony has to continue to beat HD by a 5:1 inorder to maintain a 2:1 lead that is a very different model than what the studios were sold. To put it another way if Sony has a total of 10 million players including ps3 of say9.5 million, HD if it achieved a total of 4 million units would be at 1:1

In addition since Hot products compete for discretionary spending, as we saw eith the Wii, the games market this year is going to indirectly compete for the holiday must have the latest greatest coolest with the Iphone.

Sony and BD's fundamental problem is that the PS3 did not live up to expectations, it never became the coolest hottest must have, so the original model of a runaway success with 10s of millions of units sold very quickly simply has not happened, and the original estimates to the studios that 80 percent of the PS3 buyers would be active BD buyers simply has not happened at this point.

At this point if the BD strategy was working as planned, PS3 sales would be much higher, and the bd:hd ration should be 5 or 7:1 vs HD.

So the idea of a "quick war be home for Christmas" simply is not going to happen.

On this very point I think we have a fundamental factual disagreement.

Among the people I know, many would have bought a player last year and had no problem with the pricing. People with HT systems who just would have walked out last summer and paid $500 or $1000 without much of a worry, just like they are spending $2000-3000 for a new display.

A friend called me last night. He had seen the BDP-S301 at Costco and was asking me about it. He also saw the HD-D2 for $279. He doesn't really mind either price he said. While he believes Blu-ray will win the format war and is inclined to Blu-ray, he is still waiting for the resolution of the format war. "I'll wait until it's over." were his exact words. (This friend has two systems, one plasma, the other front projection, and a huge video collection. He teaches film.)

I have many more such anecdotes.

People have no great urgency to decide, they have plenty of sources for video (HD and otherwise), and they don't want to be made foolish by the CE companies and studios. Decades of obsolete formats and broken promises have had their effect on a lot of us.

The only way we can test this point definitively is to look at the adoption uptake when the format war ends. I don't think we disagree as much as you think.

Enthusiasts and involved people either have jumped in or are disgusted by the format war and are waiting until prices and risks go down. If you are in no hurry as you are satisfied with your setup now, it makes sense to make a decision to wait it out.

But most people have either no idea of the format war, or see prices as soo high that it doesn't matter at this stage. Prices are so high with that they won't get involved until prices drop some more.

I think prices matter more to the mass market than the enthusiasts. Prices are so high for most people that the format war is not the issue, is the price.

Well of course not everyone will agree on how damaging the blockbuster annoucement was to hd dvd. But for every article you can find dismissing the announcement as being trivial, there are probably 4-5 that say the announcement was a serious setback for hd dvd. But those articles are momentary in consumer minds.

They will be forgotten in a week by most people.

But those articles are momentary in consumer minds.

They will be forgotten in a week by most people.

Just as most consumers have forgotten HD DVD :D

My guess:

59/41 BD.

Top 3
1. Bridge to Terabithia BD
2. Ghost Rider BD
3. Planet Earth HD


I'll go BD 61/39 HDDVD

Same top 3.

I am going to take a chance here and say that Blu-ray increases its lead this week over last week and finishes 71/29.

~Josh

But those articles are momentary in consumer minds.

They will be forgotten in a week by most people.

The fact that HD DVD apologists are still trying to minimize this event underscores its importance.

I would say that in the public consciousness, it is the most important thing that has happened in the format war.


Josh,

I don't see how the percentage can possibly go up from last week. I would say 65:35, and SI going to 60:40.

I am going to take a chance here and say that Blu-ray increases its lead this week over last week and finishes 71/29.

~Josh
Thats very bold Josh!
I'll go 64/36... in BD's favor of course.

The fact that HD DVD apologists are still trying to minimize this event underscores its importance.

I would say that in the public consciousness, it is the most important thing that has happened in the format war.



But but.... what about PORNO?!!! I still laugh at the people who were so adamant that "whoever the porno industry sides with will win". Time to pull out the flux capacitor from the butt as it's not 1985 anymore.

But those articles are momentary in consumer minds.

They will be forgotten in a week by most people.

I think you are forgetting that in about 6 days anyone who read the article and goes into one of 1400 Blockbuster locations will have their memory jolted. This isn't the kind of news that comes and goes with no real impact.

Josh,

I don't see how the percentage can possibly go up from last week. I would say 65:35, and SI going to 60:40.

Blu-ray did improve their lead for the week of June 26th on DVD Empire and also just from what I saw late last week at 2 Bestbuys and one Circuit City I went to I saw quite a few people buying/browsing the Blu-ray racks. I know it's nonscientific, but I just have a gut feeling that Blu-ray may shock us all and increase its lead from the previous week.

~Josh

Josh, you have been saying for a long time how BD standalone hardware was outselling HD DVD based on your conversations with your regional Director....and you said this a while back. Data I have seen at the corporate level show a completely different story (less than 2 weeks ago). OK, your ancedotal evidence may be fine, but they are just not what is going on in the set top box sales....as for movies, I have not seen data specifically from BB. but a greater than 2:1 ratio at BB for BD is posible, although the primary reason for that is that BB does not carry most HD DVD catalog titles....so that skews numbers.

The Blockbuster announcement was HUGE for BD IMO. It certainly gave it great momentum....It was good for BD, but bad for BB. We'll see if I am right there and BB ends up with a change in heart (after their contract with Sony is over)...

They will be forgotten in a week by most people.

I think the reinforcement is out there right now; I've been to the theater twice over the past week, and both times large pre-show ads for both HD DVD and Blu-ray played on the screen. IMO, the Blu-ray commercial was better, if only because the HD DVD ad lacked obvious branding. Things like this will slowly cement in peoples minds the associations between that Blu-ray format they keep hearing about and high definition video.

HD DVD has reinforcement out in the public space as well mind, but I just don't think it's coming from as strong a place right now. People may forget the Blockbuster news as time goes on, but they remember things like that when the names of the format are triggered in their minds.

my numbers

67/33 BD.

Top 3

1. Bridge to Terabithia BD
2. Ghost Rider BD
3. Planet Earth HD

Marek

Do you think a dozen catalog exclusives are suddenly going to completely neutralize Blu-ray's user base advantage?

Catalog titles have never had a significant impact on the weekly sales numbers. Even The Matrix didn't pull crazy big numbers.


Shmack created a list of exclusives and corresponding Nielsen numbers. Check it out.
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=856401

Blu-ray did improve their lead for the week of June 26th on DVD Empire and also just from what I saw late last week at 2 Bestbuys and one Circuit City I went to I saw quite a few people buying/browsing the Blu-ray racks. I know it's nonscientific, but I just have a gut feeling that Blu-ray may shock us all and increase its lead from the previous week.

I went to Circuit City and watched for awhile. No one went down the aisle with HD media, which was stocked with equal space and approximately an equal number of titles.

When I went to browse, a sales associate came up and asked how those Blu-Ray movies were. I told him I didn't have a player and was still undecided about formats. He said there's no reason to go HD now because there are so few titles. His actual quote was, "Why spend $500 to see one movie?"

The next day I purchased the HD-A2 (finally decided the "war" is not ending soon and that I'd probably go dual format by Christmas). I went to Target, and they had the same space available for HD-DVD and BD and the same number of approximate titles. The stock was significantly lower on the HD-DVD side (Not saying it was due to more sales...I have no idea why). I purchased their last copy of Happy Feet, which was on sale.

Week-to-week monitoring and anecdotal reporting of such low levels of sales in the middle of the summer are not really giving us and indication of who is winning or will win the "war" IMO. From reading all the news I can on this subject, I'm beginning to believe that HD-DVD will increase studio support once they reach a high level of hardware penetration. If that happens, we may have all studios supporting both, and if there's a viable market in both formats, this could go on for the foreseeable future.

As for this week's numbers with the new releases available, it's just a small drop in a very large bucket.

Josh, you have been saying for a long time how BD standalone hardware was outselling HD DVD based on your conversations with your regional Director....and you said this a while back. Data I have seen at the corporate level show a completely different story (less than 2 weeks ago). OK, your ancedotal evidence may be fine, but they are just not what is going on in the set top box sales....as for movies, I have not seen data specifically from BB. but a greater than 2:1 ratio at BB for BD is posible, although the primary reason for that is that BB does not carry most HD DVD catalog titles....so that skews numbers.

I actually was able to speak with the Regional GM of my area on Tuesday and we briefly discussed hardware sales. He said without a doubt the Sony BDP-S300 has been selling like hotcakes. They have now soldout of their initial 3 shipments of them and are waiting for more. He mentioned they sold 5 HD-A2's in his stores for the month of June. We did not get a chance to speak about software as I was there to buy a new Samsung LCD.

~Josh

^^

If you dont mind me asking, who is your employer?

^^

If you dont mind me asking, who is your employer?

My full-time job is with a regional Cable/Internet/Phone company who has a policy not allowing me to mention their name on Internet discussion boards.

I founded Apex Home Theater, but recently sold the business to a local competitor. I am now a consultant for them.

I also recently founded a new HD review site called Hi-Def Preview. We are still in the infancy stages but it is launched.

In addition I work for UpcomingDiscs.com as a staff Blu-ray and HD-DVD reviewer.

Finally I have also begun working in the Real Estate Business. I am currently going to classes for my Associate Brokers License :)

~Josh

I actually was able to speak with the Regional GM of my area on Tuesday and we briefly discussed hardware sales. He said without a doubt the Sony BDP-S300 has been selling like hotcakes. They have now soldout of their initial 3 shipments of them and are waiting for more. He mentioned they sold 5 HD-A2's in his stores for the month of June. We did not get a chance to speak about software as I was there to buy a new Samsung LCD.

~Josh

ancedotal evidence...
At my local best by there is an open box Sony BDP-S300 selling for 399, and its been there for over 2 weeks (I asked after I saw it there a few times). The unit it fine but was returned. I am not sure how the A2 are selling but I did see one guy grab one. My bet is that if someplace is sold out of the Sony's then Sony isn't shipping very many.

I do know on Amazon the Sony is ranked 531 and the Toshiba is 116.

The Blockbuster announcement was HUGE for BD IMO. It certainly gave it great momentum....It was good for BD, but bad for BB. We'll see if I am right there and BB ends up with a change in heart (after their contract with Sony is over)...

I believe the 1000 indie films on Amazon is a bigger announcement that the blockbuster announcement. It will open a nice niche market in terms of movie selection and could open significantly the outside of US markets. Meanwhile, barely anybody is mentioning this anywhere. It just shows how pro BD the press is in general.

I believe the 1000 indie films on Amazon is a bigger announcement that the blockbuster announcement. It will open a nice niche market in terms of movie selection and could open significantly the outside of US markets. Meanwhile, barely anybody is mentioning this anywhere. It just shows how pro BD the press is in general.

So which of those 1000 films are you hotly anticipating?

I am not sure what % of worldwide movie revenues come from major hollywood studio blobkbusters....but in my books one of the things that a next gen format must be able to do is make it cost effective to bring in non major titles.

I guess tastes vary, but Spiderman 1,2, and 3 aren't the be all and end all of movies....

I am not sure what % of worldwide movie revenues come from major hollywood studio blobkbusters92.5%, according to the latest numbers.

I do know on Amazon the Sony is ranked 531 and the Toshiba is 116.

Sony is backordered "1 or 2 months" on shipping the Sony so your comparison is rather meaningless. I did see the Sony briefly jump into the 100's before they ran out.

I suggest waiting until both have been in stock for a period of time and then comparing them.

Sony is backordered "1 or 2 months" on shipping the Sony so your comparison is rather meaningless. I did see the Sony briefly jump into the 100's before they ran out.

I suggest waiting until both have been in stock for a period of time and then comparing them.

You are correct in this statement, but it's hard to sell them if enough aren't made available. Sales are sales, and Sony is (possibly) missing out on sales by not having enough units at retail. And it doesn't seem to be due to overwhelming demand such as is the case with the Wii.

EDIT: The Wii is the NUMBER 1 seller in Video Games on Amazon sales rankings and the XBox 360 Elite is number 12, but they aren't even available from Amazon. Since the Sony S300 is available through Amazon from Vann's, it should show up better in the rankings if sales are brisk.

plazman.

i agree that is why it is heartwarming to see that a catalog title like the patriot is doing pretty well at amazon. the movie is from the year 2000 and wasn't a major box office succes, although it made over 100 million dollars. still it went into the top 100 at amazon. so maybe there is still hope for catalog titles after all. fifth element from 1997 ain't doing bad either.

I believe the 1000 indie films on Amazon is a bigger announcement that the blockbuster announcement. It will open a nice niche market in terms of movie selection and could open significantly the outside of US markets. Meanwhile, barely anybody is mentioning this anywhere. It just shows how pro BD the press is in general.

I know little about the process, but if major studios often have less than stellar PQ, wouldn't that be even more of an issue for indies? Or is the 'gain' going to be like porn: you see the warts and wrinkles better?

I believe the 1000 indie films on Amazon is a bigger announcement that the blockbuster announcement. It will open a nice niche market in terms of movie selection and could open significantly the outside of US markets. Meanwhile, barely anybody is mentioning this anywhere. It just shows how pro BD the press is in general.

We are going to see a lot of custom publishing of low-volume titles, this is a great thing for the future.

HOWEVER, at the present this has no bearing whatever on the format war, the volumes are just going to be too small to make a difference, even in aggregate over 1000 titles.

When you look at the Videoscan stats for well-known classics like Forbidden Planet, it really says a lot about how hit-driven the business is.

As to your comment about the mainstream press and the suggestion of a Blu-ray bias: this kind of publishing has been going on with books, CD's, DVD's for some time. How many mainstream articles have you read about the practice?

I believe the 1000 indie films on Amazon is a bigger announcement that the blockbuster announcement. It will open a nice niche market in terms of movie selection and could open significantly the outside of US markets. Meanwhile, barely anybody is mentioning this anywhere. It just shows how pro BD the press is in general.A niche market within a niche market?

I guess tastes vary, but Spiderman 1,2, and 3 aren't the be all and end all of movies....


They are 3 of the highest grossing movies of all time. It doesn't matter whether or not you like it, millions out there do. And it sells discs.

I believe the 1000 indie films on Amazon is a bigger announcement that the blockbuster announcement. It will open a nice niche market in terms of movie selection and could open significantly the outside of US markets. Meanwhile, barely anybody is mentioning this anywhere. It just shows how pro BD the press is in general.

The 1000 indie films announcement is about as relevant as the porn exclusive announencement a few months back.

The 1000 indie films announcement is about as relevant as the porn exclusive announencement a few months back.

Indeed.

I think it has to do to the fact that Blu-ray burning is readily available, from a wide variety of manufacturers. HD DVD burners are not.

92.5%, according to the latest numbers.

But that is a misleading number, That is the % from SUCCESSFUL blockbusters. Many movies that were supposed to be blockbusters - failed.

Like what is happening right now - only 3 blockbusters out of about 20 movies.

http://www.variety.com/index.asp?layout=b_o_weekend&dept=Film

But that is a misleading number, That is the % from SUCCESSFUL blockbusters. Many movies that were supposed to be blockbusters - failed.Before calling numbers misleading, it might save you some embarassement by doing a minimum of research, and/or know what you're talking about.

A) I'm not talking about profit, but revenue. Big difference.

B) My number is from TOTAL studio revenue, official stats from Video Business.

C) I have no idea what your link is supposed to prove, since success of a movie is relative to the money spent on it. "Evan Almighty" may have earned $60m (domestic), but that's over several weeks, and it cost $175-200m just to produce. At this point, it's a huge flop. "Knocked Up" has made $122m, but it only cost $30m to make, so it's very successful.

Regarding HD DVD's announcement of their relationship with Customflix.com, here is a partial quote from the CustomFlix.com web site:

"CustomFlix has also announced plans to support both the HD-DVD and Blu-ray formats. "

This is not a program that is unique to Blu-ray, Microsoft is just pushing it forward a bit.

Top HD DVD Sales

WEEK ENDED 7/1/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
2 BLACK SNAKE MOAN (PAR, $39.99)
3 THE BIG LEBOWSKI (UNI, $29.98)
4 BREACH (UNI, $39.98)
5 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
6 MALLRATS (UNI, $29.98)
7 DEAD SILENCE (UNI, $39.98)
8 THE ULTIMATE MATRIX COLLECTION (WB, $119.99)
9 THE COMPLETE MATRIX TRILOGY (WB, $99.99)
10 ARMY OF DARKNESS (UNI, $29.98)


Top Blu-ray Sales

WEEK ENDED 7/1/2007


RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
2 GHOST RIDER (SONY, $38.96)
3 BLACK SNAKE MOAN (PAR, $39.99)
4 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST (DIS, $34.99)
5 BLOOD DIAMOND (WB, $28.99)
6 BRIDGE TO TERABITHIA (DIS, $34.99)
7 CASINO ROYALE (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
8 APOCALYPTO (DIS, $34.99)
9 HELLBOY (SONY, $28.95)
10 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: BLACK PEARL (DIS, $34.99)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

Hello, folks. I missed last week, and I'm late to the game this week, but here's my guess for the sales ratio.

55:45 -- in favor of Blu-ray (my optimism remains virtually unchanged! :))

Who is buying Planet Earth? What the Hell!!! :eek:

Damn those Tree Huggers!

^

Lmao no kidding! Planet Earth by itself is going push HD DVD and Blu-Ray more than any other title.

Is Rentrak value or units?
(I kind of remember someone posting that Amazon rankings were based on value rather than units?)

^

Lmao no kidding! Planet Earth by itself is going push HD DVD and Blu-Ray more than any other title.

Wasn't it well under 40k or so total sold for both formats combined while Casino Royale BD is nearly twice that?

Top HD DVD Sales

WEEK ENDED 7/1/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
2 BLACK SNAKE MOAN (PAR, $39.99)
3 THE BIG LEBOWSKI (UNI, $29.98)
4 BREACH (UNI, $39.98)
5 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
6 MALLRATS (UNI, $29.98)
7 DEAD SILENCE (UNI, $39.98)
8 THE ULTIMATE MATRIX COLLECTION (WB, $119.99)
9 THE COMPLETE MATRIX TRILOGY (WB, $99.99)
10 ARMY OF DARKNESS (UNI, $29.98)


Three catalogue titles from the Universal wave of 6/26 HD-DVD releases made the Top 10? "Matrix" Box Sets rebounding upwards along with perennial Top 10 resident "Batman Begins"? Stuff that shouldn't have happened happening? I smell a good week for HD-DVD! :)

I smell a good week for HD-DVD! :)

Well, now's your chance to make a prediction. ;)

Three catalogue titles from the Universal wave of 6/26 HD-DVD releases made the Top 10? "Matrix" Box Sets rebounding upwards along with perennial Top 10 resident "Batman Begins"? Stuff that shouldn't have happened happening? I smell a good week for HD-DVD! :)

This week represents the optimal opportunity for HD DVD under Universal's catalog blitz. No week has ever been so favorable, and none may be again, given the titles that are coming up this fall.

BTW here is the quote from the story in homemediamagazine.com:

"On the high-definition disc charts, Black Snake Moan came in at No. 1, thanks in large part to its availability on both the Blu-ray Disc and the HD DVD formats. Ghost Rider was the week’s top Blu-ray seller, while Planet Earth continued its long reign at the top of the HD DVD chart."

This shows a somewhat different distribution than what was just posted here.

We will see.

I am going to predict 61-39 blu-ray. I think I am being too conservative but I think this will mark one of the lower if not the lowest volume weeks this year.

Planet Earth HD will lead all but 7 or 8 of the top ten combined will be Blu

This week represents the optimal opportunity for HD DVD under Universal's catalog blitz. No week has ever been so favorable, and none may be again, given the titles that are coming up this fall.

BTW here is the quote from the story in homemediamagazine.com:

"On the high-definition disc charts, Black Snake Moan came in at No. 1, thanks in large part to its availability on both the Blu-ray Disc and the HD DVD formats. Ghost Rider was the week’s top Blu-ray seller, while Planet Earth continued its long reign at the top of the HD DVD chart."

This shows a somewhat different distribution than what was just posted here.

We will see.

I'll go with HMM. Rentrak hasn't mirrored Nielson very well.

And while many people are talking about how this is HD-DVD's best chance this week, I really think they got a better shot next week. This week's release slate looks appealing initially, but they're mostly old catalog stuff. Next week there's a couple smallish dual-format releases that probably won't mean much, and then HD's got Blood Diamond. You know the hd-camp people are going to be hawkin the fancy-but-overrated web access piece.

Really, with the exception of week 3, BD's release slate doesn't stack up well to HD's for pretty much this whole month. But I'd still wager HD won't win a week.

I'll go with HMM. Rentrak hasn't mirrored Nielson very well.

And while many people are talking about how this is HD-DVD's best chance this week, I really think they got a better shot next week. This week's release slate looks appealing initially, but they're mostly old catalog stuff. Next week there's a couple smallish dual-format releases that probably won't mean much, and then HD's got Blood Diamond. You know the hd-camp people are going to be hawkin the fancy-but-overrated web access piece.

Really, with the exception of week 3, BD's release slate doesn't stack up well to HD's for pretty much this whole month. But I'd still wager HD won't win a week.

You're right that this most recent week will be interesting as well. Blood Diamond in HD DVD doesn't seem to be drawing that much interest. Studios need to learn to do these releases day-and-date. On the Blu-ray side, Patriot is doing very well it seems. [I have seen it on HBO and it was a revelation there so I am interested in the Blu-ray disk.]

Blood Diamond in HD DVD doesn't seem to be drawing that much interest.Just an interesting tidbit about this one. I went to a Best Buy and this one was marked $34.99. Then I went to Fry's and it was marked $19.99. I don't believe I've seen such a big gap for any disc and that price at Best Buy will probably hurt sales quiet a bit, if that is the price at all Best Buys.

--Darin

You're right that this most recent week will be interesting as well. Blood Diamond in HD DVD doesn't seem to be drawing that much interest. Studios need to learn to do these releases day-and-date. On the Blu-ray side, Patriot is doing very well it seems. [I have seen it on HBO and it was a revelation there so I am interested in the Blu-ray disk.]
It's July 4th. The timing helped.

Regarding HD DVD's announcement of their relationship with Customflix.com, here is a partial quote from the CustomFlix.com web site:

"CustomFlix has also announced plans to support both the HD-DVD and Blu-ray formats. "

This is not a program that is unique to Blu-ray, Microsoft is just pushing it forward a bit.
By all accounts, they WANT to do Blu-Ray, but can't at the moment. BD-R is too expensive and not compatible with all players, so they'd have to use BD-ROM. However BD-ROM REQUIRES an AACS license, which turns the $499 authoring cost into a $2999 cost, and additionally they'd have to press a minimum of 500 copies at a time, so it's not exactly "manufacture on demand".

I'm sure Blu-Ray will be added at some point, once there's a write-once format that's both economically feasible and compatible with everybody's player.

Blood Diamond in HD DVD doesn't seem to be drawing that much interest. Studios need to learn to do these releases day-and-date.

I guess that Warner was trying to get a better idea how much people value the extra online features by releasing the 'regular' BD earlier and the 'extra feature' HD DVD later. (Note that neither was day-and-date. So it was a earlier vs feature trade-off for dual format people. Note also that this was the first movie to actually do this, so anyone curious would want to try it.)

This experiment suggests that the online features really aren't valued that much, at least in this form. (And honestly, if I really want to get more information, then I will just go online with my PC ... Then I can at least get different perspectives.)

I guess that Warner was trying to get a better idea how much people value the extra online features by releasing the 'regular' BD earlier and the 'extra feature' HD DVD later. (Note that neither was day-and-date. So it was a earlier vs feature trade-off for dual format people. Note also that this was the first movie to actually do this, so anyone curious would want to try it.)
I think you're right, but I also think it was only half of the test. 300 is the other half. Both HD DVD and Blu-Ray are day and date with the DVD, but there are more special features on the HD DVD. They can contrast 300 sales with Blood Diamond sales and see how much people value these extras vs. how much they value an earlier release date.

Is Rentrak value or units?
(I kind of remember someone posting that Amazon rankings were based on value rather than units?)

It's not true just because someone posts it.

If you had bothered to check the in stock numbers you would have easily seen that it's all based on units. And boxes are counted as one so no use to go there either.

Edit: Amazon that is. Rentrak noone seems to know for sure.

I keep getting told that Amazon charts are not pure sales figures.

Can anyone confirm this, or tell me how they're counted?

Or is it a 'black art'?

Anyone have a link to verify it?

Steve W

Amazon charts are relative sales rankings only. There's no way to tell how many units they push, and it's a sliding scale. The difference between a disc at #5 and #105 may be 5000 units, or it may be 50, all depending on how much total stock Amazon sold. They explictly warn people not to use their numbers as sales indicators, but rather to stick to sources like Nielsen.

I keep getting told that Amazon charts are not pure sales figures.

Can anyone confirm this, or tell me how they're counted?

Or is it a 'black art'?

Anyone have a link to verify it?

Steve W

I don't have a link to verify it (but that's not really needed for this specifically) but they do count pre-orders as sales. Look at the current rankings with 300 listed as the top "selling" HD discs in both Blu-ray & HD-DVD.

Nobody seems to know how they handle cancellations of pre-orders.

Amazon charts are relative sales rankings only. There's no way to tell how many units they push, and it's a sliding scale. The difference between a disc at #5 and #105 may be 5000 units, or it may be 50, all depending on how much total stock Amazon sold. They explictly warn people not to use their numbers as sales indicators, but rather to stick to sources like Nielsen.

Right, but the disc at number 1 is their best selling disc, and the disc at number 2 is their second best selling, etc, right?

Steve W

Right, but the disc at number 1 is their best selling disc, and the disc at number 2 is their second best selling, etc, right?

Steve W

Correct, we just don't know how many it is, and it really doesn't translate into Nielsen rankings.

I think you're right, but I also think it was only half of the test. 300 is the other half. Both HD DVD and Blu-Ray are day and date with the DVD, but there are more special features on the HD DVD. They can contrast 300 sales with Blood Diamond sales and see how much people value these extras vs. how much they value an earlier release date.

I don't think it will matter, I believe it will still be at best 60/40 because there aren't that many dual format owners in the wider (still tiny) market. A true test would be to release two versions on one format and charge extra for the extras.

Right, but the disc at number 1 is their best selling disc, and the disc at number 2 is their second best selling, etc, right?Well, sure, from a certain point of view. It just reflects how many orders they get in, not any actual sales. That's why there's so many pre-orders up. For all we know, everybody could cancel their pre-orders for "300" on July 30. But up until then, it'll be counted in sales ranks.

They are 3 of the highest grossing movies of all time. It doesn't matter whether or not you like it, millions out there do. And it sells discs.


The Spidermans? What is your source on that? I thought Titanic was the highest grossing movie. The first Spiderman was #7 on the list. Certainly not the highest grossing.

Spiderman 2 # 10 on the list
Spiderman 3 # 15 on the list

POTC - Dead man's chest beats out any of the Spidermans at # 6.

The Spidermans? What is your source on that? I thought Titanic was the highest grossing movie. The first Spiderman was #7 on the list. Certainly not the highest grossing.

Spiderman 2 # 10 on the list
Spiderman 3 # 15 on the list

POTC - Dead man's chest beats out any of the Spidermans at # 6.

For the record, what you're saying and what he's saying aren't mutually exclusive statements. A move can be the 10th highest grossing, but out of hundreds and thousands, still be considered one of the "highest grossing," can it not?

The point is, these are movies that are popular with the general public.

I don't think it will matter, I believe it will still be at best 60/40 because there aren't that many dual format owners in the wider (still tiny) market. A true test would be to release two versions on one format and charge extra for the extras.
They can correct any results they get against sales figures for all their other titles, to see if there's any variance between their regular releases (which are generally identical) and this one.

Again, this is all still speculation, but I think it's logical. If Blood Diamond on BD outsells the HD DVD version by a larger margin than a typical title AND 300 on HD DVD doesn't outsell their typical HD/BR ratio for "normal" releases, I think you'll see some of the currently HD-exclusive WB titles appearing on BR sooner rather than later, sans the special features on the HD releases. Because the (admittedly small) buying pool will have spoken, and said that they don't care about special features. If, on the other hand, 300 on HD DVD makes a better ratio than usual or outsells the BR version, then their tactic of holding releases until the special features are available will be confirmed.

For the record, what you're saying and what he's saying aren't mutually exclusive statements. A move can be the 10th highest grossing, but out of hundreds and thousands, still be considered one of the "highest grossing," can it not?

The point is, these are movies that are popular with the general public.

Gotcha. I read it as 3 of the highest grossing.

I don't know what is with me this week. Maybe I shouldn't post at all. I need a vacation.

I guess that Warner was trying to get a better idea how much people value the extra online features by releasing the 'regular' BD earlier and the 'extra feature' HD DVD later. (Note that neither was day-and-date. So it was a earlier vs feature trade-off for dual format people. Note also that this was the first movie to actually do this, so anyone curious would want to try it.)

This experiment suggests that the online features really aren't valued that much, at least in this form. (And honestly, if I really want to get more information, then I will just go online with my PC ... Then I can at least get different perspectives.)
Or just that the many users with both players didn't want to wait an extra month.

If both versions had been released at the same time, it would have been a better comparison. No doubt there will be more titles with these differences that are released at the same time.

Blood Diamond was only released later for HD DVD because Warner had to wait for a firmware update to the players which was required, so future titles should be released at the same time.

If Blood Diamond on BD outsells the HD DVD version by a larger margin than a typical title AND 300 on HD DVD doesn't outsell their typical HD/BR ratio for "normal" releases, I think you'll see some of the currently HD-exclusive WB titles appearing on BR sooner rather than later, sans the special features on the HD releases. Because the (admittedly small) buying pool will have spoken, and said that they don't care about special features. If, on the other hand, 300 on HD DVD makes a better ratio than usual or outsells the BR version, then their tactic of holding releases until the special features are available will be confirmed. The delay to Blood Diamond's release was a one-off situation due to the firmware update required. Future titles with extra features will be released at the same time as the BR.

For what it's worth, the release date is very important, so I wouldn't be surprised if the one month delay hurt the HD ratio for this title, but it will not be a factor in the future.

As opposed to BD, where it seems that the BDJ issues are still holding back some BD titles.

Or just that the many users with both players didn't want to wait an extra month.

If users didn't want to wait an extra month then, to me, that "suggests that the online features really aren't valued that much".

Wasn't it well under 40k or so total sold for both formats combined while Casino Royale BD is nearly twice that?

In early June it was reported to have sold ~42,000 (http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/686) which isn't bad for a $60-$100 box set.

If Blood Diamond on BD outsells the HD DVD version by a larger margin than a typical title AND 300 on HD DVD doesn't outsell their typical HD/BR ratio for "normal" releases, I think you'll see some of the currently HD-exclusive WB titles appearing on BR sooner rather than later, sans the special features on the HD releases. Because the (admittedly small) buying pool will have spoken, and said that they don't care about special features. If, on the other hand, 300 on HD DVD makes a better ratio than usual or outsells the BR version, then their tactic of holding releases until the special features are available will be confirmed.

I disagree. Only price matters so the BR version will sell more than the HD DVD version. Looks like people are willing to pay $600 for a player but not $3 more for a disk with features such as combo and IME. 200 disks needed to offset the player cost. I am just now passing 200 SD-DVD's with 34 HD disks in 1 year.

If both versions had been released at the same time, it would have been a better comparison. No doubt there will be more titles with these differences that are released at the same time.


From a marketing perspective that provides very little data. If you release under identical conditions, all you learn is that people value the extra feature. Duh!

Conjoint analysis is much more informative: by having the extra feature being released at a later time, you get information as to how much they value the extra feature relative to - in this case - getting the movie earlier.

I am going to predict 61-39 blu-ray. I think I am being too conservative but I think this will mark one of the lower if not the lowest volume weeks this year.

Planet Earth HD will lead all but 7 or 8 of the top ten combined will be Blu
Planet Earth showed that there is a big difference in the demographics of HD DVD owners and BR owners. The HD DVD version significantly outsold the BR version.

I would expect the same thing with Blue Planet - this is a fantastic program which will appeal to the same audience as Planet Earth.

Planet Earth showed that there is a big difference in the demographics of HD DVD owners and BR owners. The HD DVD version significantly outsold the BR version.

I would expect the same thing with Blue Planet - this is a fantastic program which will appeal to the same audience as Planet Earth.

Blue Planet may sell better on HD DVD but I don't think it will be anywhere near as successful as PE due to the Discovery broadcast of it.

Now, if DHD was going to run and advertise Blue Planet, that would be a different story.

It's not true just because someone posts it.

If you had bothered to check the in stock numbers you would have easily seen that it's all based on units. And boxes are counted as one so no use to go there either.

Edit: Amazon that is. Rentrak noone seems to know for sure.

Forgive me, forgive me. I was just asking a question that I thought someone might easily answer. I will try never ever to bother you again with such dumb questions! I will rather spend all my time reinventing the wheel.

If users didn't want to wait an extra month then, to me, that "suggests that the online features really aren't valued that much". I don't agree. It just means that many folks would like to get the movie sooner, if it is available, and the release date issue occluded their feelings on extras.

To see the value of the extra features, one should compare the shift in the BD to HD DVD sales ratio for a title like 300, where the BD and HD versions are released at the same time.

From a marketing perspective that provides very little data. If you release under identical conditions, all you learn is that people value the extra feature. Duh!

Conjoint analysis is much more informative: by having the extra feature being released at a later time, you get information as to how much they value the extra feature relative to - in this case - getting the movie earlier.

Agreed. They will be able to compare sales ratios of Blood Diamond with 300 - if they want to.

I say if they want to because I believe that they already realize that the release date is probably more important - this is why they have chosen to go ahead and release non-interactive versions of the Bluray movies, rather than wait for BDJ to be fixed.

My main point was that the Blood Diamond release was a one-off event and was later because they had to wait for the firmware update - not because it took longer to develop. The same is not true of BDJ issues.

The real question is: How many dual-format people will buy 300 HD DVD instead of the Bluray version, because the idea of the extra features and web content excites them and they want to check out the future of home entertainment?

Planet Earth showed that there is a big difference in the demographics of HD DVD owners and BR owners. The HD DVD version significantly outsold the BR version.

I would expect the same thing with Blue Planet - this is a fantastic program which will appeal to the same audience as Planet Earth.

I wouldn't say "significantly". We are only talking about a few thousand copies more. The Departed, for example, sold 63k on Blu-ray and 38k on HD DVD (as of 5/27), a difference of 25k copies. Planet Earth sold 19k on Blu-ray and 25k on HD DVD (as of 5/27) a difference of 6k copies. Clearly, if 6k copies difference is "significant" than 4 times that amount can only be described as "insurmountable".

Blue Planet and Rover will both do well, capturing on the same audience as Planet Earth.

I wouldn't say "significantly". We are only talking about a few thousand copies more. The Departed, for example, sold 63k on Blu-ray and 38k on HD DVD (as of 5/27), a difference of 25k copies. Planet Earth sold 19k on Blu-ray and 25k on HD DVD (as of 5/27) a difference of 6k copies. Clearly, if 6k copies difference is "significant" than 4 times that amount can only be described as "insurmountable".

Blue Planet and Rover will both do well, capturing on the same audience as Planet Earth.

Any HD DVD title that outsells its BD counterpart is signifigant, a BD nearly doubling the sales of an HD DVD is basically expected at this point.

FWIW I think the 'PS3 Effect' will obliviate any advantage due to extras on the HD DVD version of 300.

edit: the hd dvd version did not outsell it signifigantly, but it signifigant that it outsold it at all ;)

Blue Planet may sell better on HD DVD but I don't think it will be anywhere near as successful as PE due to the Discovery broadcast of it.

Now, if DHD was going to run and advertise Blue Planet, that would be a different story.
Planet Earth was broadcast all over the place on Discovery and Discovery HD also. Didn't seem to hurt the sales at all.

It was also airing in the UK over a year ago. I had most of the series recorded on my Sky HD box, in AVC.

However, having the Planet Earth series on BD or HD may in and of itself affect whether the owners also purchases the Blue Planet programme as well. This effect is likely larger than whether it aired on Discovery.

my guess is that 300 will be the first title that will cross the 100.000 units sold on a single system, so more then 100.000 units sold on bluray and more then 100.000 units sold on hd-dvd. although i think bluray release will get their first.

Planet Earth was broadcast all over the place on Discovery and Discovery HD also. Didn't seem to hurt the sales one bit.

Also, it was airing in the UK over a year ago also. I had most of the series recorded on my Sky HD box, in AVC.

However, having the Planet Earth series on BD or HD may in and of itself affect whether the owners also purchases the Blue Planet programme as well. This effect is likely larger than whether it aired on Discovery.

I think the DHD broadcast and advertising of Planet Earth greatly helped the sales of the title, because people were exposed to it before the purchase.

If DHD were to show Blue Planet and advertise it like they did PE I believe it would also greatly improve sales of the title.

My main point was that the Blood Diamond release was a one-off event and was later because they had to wait for the firmware update - not because it took longer to develop. I've seen nothing saying this. Other than saying "because it came out later" is just because you feel like it, for all we know Warner could just have wanted to release later to see how sales would go.
The real question is: How many dual-format people will buy 300 HD DVD instead of the Bluray version, because the idea of the extra features and web content excites them and they want to check out the future of home entertainment?BS. That's the HD DVD fanatic's question. I could just as easily say the "real question" is: How many dual-format people will buy 300 Blu-ray instead of the HD DVD version, because it's cheaper and the idea of the extra features and web content fails to excites them?

I wouldn't say "significantly". We are only talking about a few thousand copies more. 5% higher sales on the HD DVD version is very significant when one takes into account other BD titles sell 45% more than HD.

It speaks volumes about the demographics of the user bases.

It speaks volumes about the demographics of the user bases.No, it speaks volumes about 1 title. "The Departed" wasn't an action flick, and Scorsese films are not known to be big sellers amongst the kiddies you constantly think fit the PS3 demographic. Outside of "Casino Royale" the best-selling BD titles we know of are "The Prestige", "Happy Feet", "Babel", and "Night at the Museum", all of which fall outside of your so-called "Blu-ray demographic" .

5% higher sales on the HD DVD version is very significant when one takes into account other BD titles sell 45% more than HD.

It speaks volumes about the demographics of the user bases.

Not necessarily ... another plausible explanation is to examine what other titles were available for purchase in the two formats. Perhaps the HD DVD demographic didn't like all the catalog content?

I disagree. Only price matters so the BR version will sell more than the HD DVD version. Looks like people are willing to pay $600 for a player but not $3 more for a disk with features such as combo and IME. 200 disks needed to offset the player cost. I am just now passing 200 SD-DVD's with 34 HD disks in 1 year.
This is a good test for if people are willing to pay $5 or $4 extra for IME and those interactive extras. We already know most people won't pay $5 for combos or for TrueHD (if we consider the warner releases), so this is a good time to test the studio's belief.

I have a laptop with wireless internet access and HDD, I have a few NAS with over 2TB of shared storage in the home lan, not counting the dozens of USB enclosures, I have pdf, JPGs, GIFs, htms of everything I could get my hands on the Thermopylae and Leonidas and the whole sordid 300+athenians vs the persians story from all angles (including not so flaterring and apparent spartan tactical mistakes viewpoints). I even know Xerxes eventual fate as well as the apparent reasons for launching the war (the true instigator was not Xerxes). I doubt there's any historical context that warner can format to provide on that disk that is anywhere as complete or varied as the information I already have.

If I want to know about historical facts of thermopylae, I have a laptop that I can pull up during any part of the movie and fact-check anything I want.

I'd be willing to bet a penny that some studio luminaries might be quite surprised that even the early adopter people won't pay even $4 for their precious interactive holy grail, even when they cap the video bitrate to the lowest common denominator. They might be surprised instead that there are people who might be willing to pay $4 for a higher bitrate encode of the same movie, meaning this might actually settle the importance of higher bitrates vs interactive stuff/IME on a relative scale.

Of course, the ultimate affront would be if people will pay $4 more for a metal case or a case shaped like a spartan shield, when they won't do the same for the IME. That would put things in perspective would it not? ;) [Heck, I'd pay $10 more for a spartan shield model that matches the movie]

I've seen nothing saying this. Other than saying "because it came out later" is just because you feel like it, for all we know Warner could just have wanted to release later to see how sales would go.I sent emails to Warner at the time the news of the delayed release came out, because I was concerned about the reasons for the decision.

Among the information that came back, was "not all of the Toshiba players will be able to handle the inter-connectivity until Toshiba issues a firmware upgrade at the end of June..."

I kept silent on this info, as it was confidential at the time, but hinted at it in quite a few posts :)

BS. That's the HD DVD fanatic's question. I could just as easily say the "real question" is: How many dual-format people will buy 300 Blu-ray instead of the HD DVD version, because it's cheaper and the idea of the extra features and web content fails to excites them?Wow - same old responses? You may feel that it is BS, but these studios invest a lot in market research. If extras had no value, they would certainly not invest so much time and money into producing them.

I'm sure your opinion will change when BDJ is ready and similar interactive features become an option on BD titles. Fortunately Warner is equally respectful of both formats, having said in one letter: "that we do not run our business based on trying to win a "format war", but based on how we can do the best possible job getting great Hi Def content to consumers, regardless of format".

Data are up!

Week 65/35
YTD 67/33
SI 60/40

No, it speaks volumes about 1 title. "The Departed" wasn't an action flick, and Scorsese films are not known to be big sellers amongst the kiddies you constantly think fit the PS3 demographic. Outside of "Casino Royale" the best-selling BD titles we know of are "The Prestige", "Happy Feet", "Babel", and "Night at the Museum", all of which fall outside of your so-called "Blu-ray demographic" .
I think you incorrectly interpreted this as a statement against the BR demographic, rather than a statement FOR the HD DVD demographic. The Departed had equal appeal to the demo's of both formats.

However, Planet Earth clearly had greater appeal to the HD DVD demographic and lesser appeal to the BD demographic. You contest that?

I think it'll be 64:36 next week. If you look at the hd-dvd/blu-ray amazon comparison graph, hd-dvd shrinks the gap, but doesn't come close to overtaking. Maybe 1 or 2 of hd-dvd's exclusives is doing decently (ranking in the 1xx), but blu-rays older "hit" releases seem to be outselling them for the most part.

6/26 marked the day that the hd-dvd exclusives were released.




I was close! :)

This week they've replaced their weekly charts with YTD charts. Yawn.

If HD DVD can't get closer than 65/35 in a week with 12 exclusives and 2 dual formats then I really don't see how it is going to change anything in the short term.

This week they've replaced their weekly charts with YTD charts. Yawn.

I know, that does suck.

I sent emails to Warner at the time the news of the delayed release came out, because I was concerned about the reasons for the decision.

Among the information that came back, was "not all of the Toshiba players will be able to handle the inter-connectivity until Toshiba issues a firmware upgrade at the end of June..."

What interconectivity does Blood Diamond have that Freedom doesn't have? That worked essentially fine on the HD-A1 without the end of June upgrade.

I've seen nothing saying this. Other than saying "because it came out later" is just because you feel like it, for all we know Warner could just have wanted to release later to see how sales would go.
BS. That's the HD DVD fanatic's question. I could just as easily say the "real question" is: How many dual-format people will buy 300 Blu-ray instead of the HD DVD version, because it's cheaper and the idea of the extra features and web content fails to excites them?
300 is the first release with an interesting new concept in interactivity. I believe most of the neutral owner as I am will go for the HD DVD version this time even if it is a combo or a more expensive. Just to try this out. Meanwhile, 300 is also the perfect match for the PS3 demographic. It will be interesting to see what will be the sale ratio on this title.

Data are up!

Week 65/35
YTD 67/33
SI 60/40

The since inception is a bump up isn't it? I thought that's been at a 59/41 for a bit now though I may be wrong.

The since inception is a bump up isn't it? I thought that's been at a 59/41 for a bit now though I may be wrong.

No, you're right (hint: all past data are on the first post of this thread ;) ).

I wouldn't say "significantly". We are only talking about a few thousand copies more. The Departed, for example, sold 63k on Blu-ray and 38k on HD DVD (as of 5/27), a difference of 25k copies. Planet Earth sold 19k on Blu-ray and 25k on HD DVD (as of 5/27) a difference of 6k copies. Clearly, if 6k copies difference is "significant" than 4 times that amount can only be described as "insurmountable".

Blue Planet and Rover will both do well, capturing on the same audience as Planet Earth.

New numbers (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118341745768555943.html) show that sales are up, but the 25,000 difference has remained. Since the numbers are in context to the EU investigation I wonder if they are worldwide numbers.

"The Departed," which was out in both formats, shipped 85,000 copies in Blu-ray and 60,000 in HD DVD

Warner could have the 150k announcement soon

No, you're right (hint: all past data are on the first post of this thread ;) ).

Hey, clicking a link is hard work! Sorry, I had actually forgotten that.

Data are up!

Week 65/35
YTD 67/33
SI 60/40
Note that this data is for the previous week, since the data is released a few days after the end of each week. The numbers showing the impact of this weeks titles will be out next week.

If Amazon is any forward indicator (and we already know it is), then the numbers next week will be a lot closer.

http://www.CampaignHD.com/images/Top10_60.png

If HD DVD can't get closer than 65/35 in a week with 12 exclusives and 2 dual formats then I really don't see how it is going to change anything in the short term. ...see above...

What interconectivity does Blood Diamond have that Freedom doesn't have? That worked essentially fine on the HD-A1 without the end of June upgrade.
Web interactivity and extra content via the internet - are the key things the firmware enabled.

New numbers (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118341745768555943.html) show that sales are up, but the 25,000 difference has remained. Since the numbers are in context to the EU investigation I wonder if they are worldwide numbers.

"The Departed," which was out in both formats, shipped 85,000 copies in Blu-ray and 60,000 in HD DVD

Warner could have the 150k announcement soon

I think that one refers to how many that was shipped to stores before release. Notice shipped is used instead of sold. It says nothing about how they have sold since. The Departed is nowhere near 150.000. Don't have my estimates here but I don't think it's over 110.000 yet.

Interesting to see how Warner actually shipped more copies of BD initially.

Note that this data is for the previous week, since the data is released a few days after the end of each week. The numbers showing the impact of this weeks titles will be out next week.

If Amazon is any forward indicator (and we already know it is), then the numbers next week will be a lot closer.

But I thought the week with the eleven HD DVD exclusives was going to be the big week where the format had its best chance for gaining a sizeable amount of ground in regards to the weekly numbers? Now things seem to be changing to "another week" or "wait until 300" or something else. All things that if I recall correctly you were saying was poor of Blu-ray fans to talk about last year.

We'll talk about this week, next week.

Now the headline is:

HD DVD had 14 titles out (with two new releases) vs 2 out for BD (one new release), and it still lost 35-65.

Note that this data is for the previous week, since the data is released a few days after the end of each week. The numbers showing the impact of this weeks titles will be out next week.

If Amazon is any forward indicator (and we already know it is), then the numbers next week will be a lot closer.

http://www.CampaignHD.com/images/Top10_60.png

Most of that is future pre-orders, the releases that will be reflected in next weeks numbers are:

BD
The Patriot
The Untouchables
The Warriors
Flatlines

HD DVD
The Untouchables
The Warriors
Blood Diamond

The pre-orders showing up in the top 10 are:

HD DVD:
300
Hot Fuzz
Bourne Identity
Shaun of the Dead
Shooter

BD:
300
Shooter

So while sales may be brisk on future titles, the top 10 movies that are currently released (and will count towards nielsen data next week) are heavily favoring BD.

Both have changed because of the 300 Preorder.. that's all.. HD DVD got a Bigger boost since before 300 it was lagging being with Hot Fuzz being the most popular Preorder

300 sales will be reflected in the first week of August..

If HD DVD can't get closer than 65/35 in a week with 12 exclusives and 2 dual formats then I really don't see how it is going to change anything in the short term.

Agreed. Personally, I thought that BD would win again for the week, but I thought it would be closer when you looked at the release schedule. With a PS3 price cut eminent, and BD player prices dropping faster than most people expected, along with all the huge Blu-Ray-only blockbuster movies that will be coming in Q4, I think it is safe to say that Blu-Ray will win for the year by a large margin, and HD DVD may not even win one single week all year..

Universal keeps talking about a huge 4th quarter, but I really do not see it happening with "Evan Almighty" falling flat on its face and "Knocked Up" being a $28-35 Comedy catalog release (which simply do not sell well). The next "Bourne" movie should sell well (depending on reviews), but there is no way that title can compete with POTC3, Spiderman3, Fantastic Four#2, Live Free Die Hard, etc.

The question I have right now is what will be Universal's stance on the format war if Blu-Ray wins 70:30 for the 4th quarter? I think if this does happen, Universal will most likely go neutral in early 2008... But you never know...

Web interactivity and extra content via the internet - are the key things the firmware enabled.

Yeah, uh, Freedom had that. What different things does Blood Diamond bring though? Freedom was bringing in graphics from the web to change the menus on the disc, downloadable content from the internet and keys to unlock content on the disc. I've got it, I've watched it, I've reviewed it, I've posted pictures about it. What I want to know is, what DIFFERENT things does Blood Diamond bring to the table that requires a firmware update that Freedom did not?

I love how the relation to Amazon either does or does not matter to suit ones argument on that particular day. I also love the "wait til next week" excuse which has been going on since BD took over.

We'll talk about this week, next week.

Now the headline is:

HD DVD had 14 titles out (with two new releases) vs 2 out for BD (one new release), and it still lost 35-65.
Ahh, Grubert. But you know the numbers to compare this week's exclusive releases are the number that are released next week.

So your statement is incorrect and misleading.

Competing Titles:

HD DVD
* American Me (Universal)
* Army of Darkness (Re-issue) (Universal)
* Being John Malkovich (Universal)
* The Big Lebowski (Universal)
* Black Snake Moan (Paramount)
* Bulletproof (Universal)
* Dead Silence (Universal)
* Freedom: 1 (Bandai Visual)
* Hustle & Flow (Paramount)
* Mallrats (Universal)
* Meet Joe Black (Universal)
* Mystery Men (Universal)
* Unleashed (Re-issue) (Universal)
* The Watcher (Universal)

Blu-ray
* Black Snake Moan (Paramount)
* Hustle & Flow (Paramount)

And it still was 65:35.

Note that this data is for the previous week, since the data is released a few days after the end of each week. The numbers showing the impact of this weeks titles will be out next week.Of course we know this. The problem was that HD DVD released something along the lines of 12 exclusive titles and 2 neutral titles to Blu-ray's ZERO exclusives, and they still got outsold almost 2:1.
If Amazon is any forward indicator (and we already know it is), then the numbers next week will be a lot closer.Again, if you'd been reading the thread and actually been paying attention to the numbers, you'd know that Amazon is hardly a reliable forward indicator. If that was the case, the numbers from May 27 would have been HD DVD's best week in recent history instead of one if it's worst.

Ahh, Grubert. But you know the numbers to compare this week's exclusive releases are the number that are released next week.

So your statement is incorrect and misleading.

Sure, sure... *smiles and nods*

:D

Another week, another massacre, another slew of apologists from the hd-dvd camp in full swing. Seriously, i thought for SURE that this would be hd-dvd's comeback. Slew of exclusive catalog titles would for sure do it! But as reality shows, that is not the case. This is great news for Crystal Light!

We'll talk about this week, next week.

Now the headline is:

HD DVD had 14 titles out (with two new releases) vs 2 out for BD (one new release), and it still lost 35-65.

It'll be interesting to see the breakdown on the title placement when that's pasted into here. It does continue to further prove the point that catalog titles will not drive things right now. It is good to continue to release catalog titles however, particularly during the summer when nobody is really looking, as in the fall it will provide a fuller plate of releases that a new consumer can choose from. That added depth will help, though it's unclear yet whether the next wave of consumers (the holiday shoppers) will want to replace older titles or just shop for the new ones. The other thing is that all of the studios across both sides of the aisle will be promoting all their summer flicks heavily for home video release which will leave little ad space for the catalog titles.

We'll talk about this week, next week.

Now the headline is:

HD DVD had 14 titles out (with two new releases) vs 2 out for BD (one new release), and it still lost 35-65.
Thats pretty amazing... BlockBuster realy gave HD-DVD a big kick in the nuts. :eek:

Competing Titles:

HD DVD
* American Me (Universal)
* Army of Darkness (Re-issue) (Universal)
* Being John Malkovich (Universal)
* The Big Lebowski (Universal)
* Black Snake Moan (Paramount)
* Bulletproof (Universal)
* Dead Silence (Universal)
* Freedom: 1 (Bandai Visual)
* Hustle & Flow (Paramount)
* Mallrats (Universal)
* Meet Joe Black (Universal)
* Mystery Men (Universal)
* Unleashed (Re-issue) (Universal)
* The Watcher (Universal)

Blu-ray
* Black Snake Moan (Paramount)
* Hustle & Flow (Paramount)

And it still was 65:35.


All hope is lost for HD DVD. RIP

Competing Titles:

HD DVD
* American Me (Universal)
* Army of Darkness (Re-issue) (Universal)
* Being John Malkovich (Universal)
* The Big Lebowski (Universal)
* Black Snake Moan (Paramount)
* Bulletproof (Universal)
* Dead Silence (Universal)
* Freedom: 1 (Bandai Visual)
* Hustle & Flow (Paramount)
* Mallrats (Universal)
* Meet Joe Black (Universal)
* Mystery Men (Universal)
* Unleashed (Re-issue) (Universal)
* The Watcher (Universal)

Blu-ray
* Black Snake Moan (Paramount)
* Hustle & Flow (Paramount)

And it still was 65:35.

Here's the nice picture to go with that:

http://i175.photobucket.com/albums/w145/columbine420/weekending070107.jpg

It'll be interesting to see the breakdown on the title placement when that's pasted into here. It does continue to further prove the point that catalog titles will not drive things right now. It is good to continue to release catalog titles however, particularly during the summer when nobody is really looking, as in the fall it will provide a fuller plate of releases that a new consumer can choose from. That added depth will help, though it's unclear yet whether the next wave of consumers (the holiday shoppers) will want to replace older titles or just shop for the new ones. The other thing is that all of the studios across both sides of the aisle will be promoting all their summer flicks heavily for home video release which will leave little ad space for the catalog titles.

I don't think we are going to get a breakdown this week unless we have another source.

HMM has YTD sales instead of weekly for some reason.

I don't think we are going to get a breakdown this week unless we have another source.

HMM has YTD sales instead of weekly for some reason.

Yeah, I wonder. I'll ask the HMM staff next Monday. ;)

Yeah, I wonder. I'll ask the HMM staff next Monday. ;)

That'll give us a few days worth of conspiracy theories to claim that they're protecting HD DVD! ;)

...you'd know that Amazon is hardly a reliable forward indicator. If that was the case, the numbers from May 27 would have been HD DVD's best week in recent history instead of one if it's worst.
Again, given that the numbers are reported a week later, you'd see that the numbers for that week were 61/39.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10740586&&#post10740586

We'll talk about this week, next week.

Now the headline is:

HD DVD had 14 titles out (with two new releases) vs 2 out for BD (one new release), and it still lost 35-65.

ouch, so much for this week being the week that HD-DVD would come up top. Time for "next week" :D ;)

Competing Titles:

HD DVD
* American Me (Universal)
* Army of Darkness (Re-issue) (Universal)
* Being John Malkovich (Universal)
* The Big Lebowski (Universal)
* Black Snake Moan (Paramount)
* Bulletproof (Universal)
* Dead Silence (Universal)
* Freedom: 1 (Bandai Visual)
* Hustle & Flow (Paramount)
* Mallrats (Universal)
* Meet Joe Black (Universal)
* Mystery Men (Universal)
* Unleashed (Re-issue) (Universal)
* The Watcher (Universal)

Blu-ray
* Black Snake Moan (Paramount)
* Hustle & Flow (Paramount)

And it still was 65:35.
Yeah, kind of sad for HD DVD. But part of the problem, at least as far as I see it, could be the ready availability of these titles. I don't know about other areas, but here in my town, the local Best buy has not stocked the last few weeks of catalogue releases for HD DVD -- it has only stocked the new releases. :( (I really don't buy many titles from Best Buy, preferring to order from Amazon, but if this is a widespread stocking issue, it could have some effect on total sales. Just a thought.)

But my optimism for HD DVD still persists. :)

Let's see how things work out next week! ;)

...another slew of apologists from the hd-dvd camp in full swing.
Apologies? Who's apologising? :D

And actually, it's more like a Smurf convention here, as I seem to be one of the only HD guys here :) Sorry to interrupt the tea party with an opposing point of view.

Amazon's rankings are based of price. HMM is based on unit. That is why Planet Earth continually remains on the top even though many other titles outsell it at the unit level. Amazon ranking have been continually proven to be not relevant to sales conversations.

We'll talk about this week, next week.

Now the headline is:

HD DVD had 14 titles out (with two new releases) vs 2 out for BD (one new release), and it still lost 35-65.

Are you kidding??? That result is astounding.

Apologies? Who's apologising? :D

And actually, it's more like a Smurf convention here, as I seem to be one of the only HD guys here :) Sorry to interrupt the tea party with an opposing point of view.

Opposing... or wrong?

You're here trying to say that the week with twelve-whatever exclusive HD DVD releases will be accounted for in next week's numbers; but it's this week. That you could even challenge this obvious fact in the face of individuals that have followed this thread on a daily basis is, well... I'm a little embarrassed for how you're coming off here.

Apologies? Who's apologising? :D

And actually, it's more like a Smurf convention here, as I seem to be one of the only HD guys here :) Sorry to interrupt the tea party with an opposing point of view.

Opposing points of view are fine. Points of view with incorrect data that you're bringing to the table may not be quite so welcome.

65/35 is not that surprising... catalog titles have not sold well.

Universal's HD DVD strategy has failed. Ken Graffeo thought by that simply increasing the number of titles, he could turn the format war around.

Graffeo objected to Blockbusters' Blu-ray support by noting that the first quarter had few HD DVD titles (largely because his own Universal only had 6 titles in the first quarter). So, in the second quarter, Universal shipped 33 titles, culminating in 11 on 6/26 alone. If his strategy was going to work, it should have worked last week.

They shipped mediocre VC-1 transfers of played-out titles without lossless soundtracks, and with few reasons to buy them. The fact is that the results of the last 3 months would have been very similar if Universal hadn't shipped anything at all and if Graffeo had not done any of his promotion of the format.

Universal needs a new strategy if they want to be relevant. I see two choices:

A. REALLY SUPPORT HD DVD

Provide really great disks of really great titles. Let's see a Matrix-style boxed set of Back to the Future, Jurassic Park, etc. Special editions of ET, Jaws, the Hitchcock films.

They should be experimenting with AVC, using lossless audio, and doing serious interactive work.

B. BECOME NEUTRAL AND END THE FORMAT WAR

Universal still has the option of ending the format war by supporting Blu-ray. This would open up adoption and increase their sales by a factor of 10 within a few months.

*****

At the moment, all that Universal is managing to do is to prop up the format war, and is doing that in a not very effective manner.

The since inception is a bump up isn't it? I thought that's been at a 59/41 for a bit now though I may be wrong.
59/41 SI might be 59.49/40.51. That wouldn't take much to move to 59.51/40.49 or 60/40 --- just saying....

ouch, so much for this week being the week that HD-DVD would come up top. Time for "next week" :D ;)
That seems to be HD-DVD's "new" motto.... Wait till 51gb, wait till cheap chinese players, wait till Fox goes neutral, and of course.... wait till next week. :D

Again, given that the numbers are reported a week later, you'd see that the numbers for that week were 61/39.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10740586&&#post10740586


Wrong.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom060307/index.php?startpage=5

Read very sssssslowwwwlyyyyy after me


Blu-ray
and
HD DVD
Sales
Comparison
as
of
5/27/07


Week
ended
5/27
69/31

Can we move on now?

HD DVD:
"The Look And Sound Of Next Week"...

65/35 is not that surprising... catalog titles have not sold well.
I think you are right. It will be hard to boost sales with most catalogue titles (though I think LOTR might be able to moves some discs . . .). But, that being said, I think the catalogue releases were somewhat helpful this week. The weekly sales ratio did move in HD DVD's favor this week, considering that the weekly sales ratio last week was 70:30.

Again, given that the numbers are reported a week later, you'd see that the numbers for that week were 61/39.Please do follow along, and I'll put it bold to make it easier.

The date you see for the Nielsen numbers indicate the figures from the week ending on 5/27, which were released 6/2. The sales in your chart show HD DVD sales close to Blu-ray on Amazon on 5/27. Now, put one and one together.

That seems to be HD-DVD's "new" motto.... Wait till 51gb, wait till cheap chinese players, wait till Fox goes neutral, and of course.... wait till next week. :D

Don't forget, all blu-ray players will blow up in October so you can't watch your blu-ray movies. I'd hate to see what would happen to the ego's of the HD DVD owners if my blu-ray movies still work in October :eek:

HD DVD:
"The Look And Sound Of Next Week"...
good one!

Don't forget, all blu-ray players will blow up in October so you can't watch your blu-ray movies. I'd hate to see what would happen to the ego's of the HD DVD owners if my blu-ray movies still work in October :eek:
:D

The slow moving catalog titles are really going to hurt HD DVD in the long run. As the sole exclusive studio, Universal has been having a very tough time in the theaters. Their new releases have come up short of expectation, which exception to a few titles like "Knocked-Up". They really have very little to look forward to for the Q4 release schedule. Looking at the top grossing films thus far, the biggest video sellers by studio should be:

Sony: Spider-man 3
Paramount: Shrek The Third
Disney: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Warner: 300
Universal: Knocked Up
Fox: Fantastic Four

But I even see Fantastic Four selling much better on Blu-ray than Knocked Up on HD DVD.

The slow moving catalog titles are really going to hurt HD DVD in the long run. As the sole exclusive studio, Universal has been having a very tough time in the theaters. Their new releases have come up short of expectation, which exception to a few titles like "Knocked-Up". They really have very little to look forward to for the Q4 release schedule. Looking at the top grossing films thus far, the biggest video sellers by studio should be:

Sony: Spider-man 3
Paramount: Shrek The Third
Disney: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Warner: 300
Universal: Knocked Up
Fox: Fantastic Four

But I even see Fantastic Four selling much better on Blu-ray than Knocked Up on HD DVD.

Fantastic Four 2 will wipe the floor with Knocked Up. And thats not even going to come close to sales of Ratatouille, Die Hard 4, Pirates 3, Spidey 3 and more!!! It reminds me of my old days with 900+RWHP Supras meeting in vegas. We'd have street racing near the strip vs the domestic cars, and one of our guys would ask how fast the fastest domestic car there was. After we'd laugh, the response was usually "we'll let you race one of the slower supras".

Don't forget, all blu-ray players will blow up in October so you can't watch your blu-ray movies. I'd hate to see what would happen to the ego's of the HD DVD owners if my blu-ray movies still work in October :eek:
Well, that's a bit silly. Are there any serious HD DVD proponents who have suggested that your Blu-ray movies won't play after many of the current Blu-ray players become obsolete? I think it's generally understood that the obsolescence will only extend to certain extra features. (And it will only occur in those players that don't have the necessary hardware and ability to be upgraded through firmware -- meaning, probably, that the PS3 will not be obsolete.)

I guess what I'm saying is that I don't think the egos of any HD DVD owners will suffer much when your Blu-ray movies still play. :)

Well, that's a bit silly. Are there any serious HD DVD proponents who have suggested that your Blu-ray movies won't play after many of the current Blu-ray players become obsolete?

Welcome to AVS!

HD DVD:
"The Look And Sound Of Next Week"...

LOL

Honestly, though, I think end of July will be tough for BD: Bourne Identity on the 24th with nothing to match, and Hot Fuzz/Shaun of the Dead on the 31th (though that may be drowned by 300 and Shooter).

This market does not value catalogs (yet). The degree how the catalogs are ignored is surprising to me. Lebowski, Meet Joe Black, Army of Darkness, these are not bad movies.

In a market that does not value catalogs, Universal could continue to release exclusive 12 catalogs every week till end of December, and combined they won't sell as many as 300 or POTC3 or Spidey3 or SHREK3.

The red format's hope lies in Warner somehow deciding to extend them a helping hand and do another matrix boost --- Perhaps release LOTR on red before blu. This seems somewhat counter-intuitive if Warner as an organization can together agree on what their long term goal is : (is it to keep both formats on life supportfor years, or is it to have only one?)

LOL

Honestly, though, I think end of July will be tough for BD: Bourne Identity on the 24th with nothing to match, and Hot Fuzz/Shaun of the Dead on the 31th (though that may be drowned by 300 and Shooter).
My prediction for after July 31st : 300 will outsell shooter by a big margin, half the sales will go to the 300 on both combined. BD300:HD300 will follow the Happy Feet ratio.

Well, that's a bit silly. Are there any serious HD DVD proponents who have suggested that your Blu-ray movies won't play after many of the current Blu-ray players become obsolete? I think it's generally understood that the obsolescence will only extend to certain extra features. (And it will only occur in those players that don't have the necessary hardware and ability to be upgraded through firmware -- meaning, probably, that the PS3 will not be obsolete.)

I guess what I'm saying is that I don't think the egos of any HD DVD owners will suffer much when your Blu-ray movies still play. :)

I can tell you've missed out on a lot of entertaining posts :cool:

Welcome to AVS!
Thanks, I've been waiting since December for someone to extend a kind word. ;)

(Just kidding, folks -- plenty of you have said many nice things!) :)

I can tell you've missed out on a lot of entertaining posts :cool:

As a test I set my family room electronic clock/calendar ahead to November 1, 2007. My Playstation 3 immediately overheated and melted into a molten mass of metal and plastic. ;) ;)

I can tell you've missed out on a lot of entertaining posts :cool:
That's probably true. :)

This place is fun . . . and I probably spend way too much time here!

Well, that's a bit silly. Are there any serious HD DVD proponents who have suggested that your Blu-ray movies won't play after many of the current Blu-ray players become obsolete? I think it's generally understood that the obsolescence will only extend to certain extra features. (And it will only occur in those players that don't have the necessary hardware and ability to be upgraded through firmware -- meaning, probably, that the PS3 will not be obsolete.)

I guess what I'm saying is that I don't think the egos of any HD DVD owners will suffer much when your Blu-ray movies still play. :)

There's a few red player owners who weren't around when DTS was introduced to DVDs, and they think that new disks won't load on old BD players (instead of not having IME as a selectable option) Not everyone is as well informed as you are. :D

LOL

Honestly, though, I think end of July will be tough for BD: Bourne Identity on the 24th with nothing to match, and Hot Fuzz/Shaun of the Dead on the 31th (though that may be drowned by 300 and Shooter).

Agreed. I own both formats and I buy titles on both, but I have been pretty unimpressed with Universal when it comes to the many of their recent releases (PQ/AQ). They need to start putting TrueHD on every single day and date release (especially when the combo movies sell for $28-35 at local stores and online).

I think 300 (I have no plans to buy this on either format) may be the biggest seller of the year when it is all said and done. I think Hot Fuzz and Shuan will be good sellers, but both are comedies and, historically speaking, comedies do not sell as well as some of the other genres (especially with Hot Fuzz being an expensive combo).

We will have to wait and see, but I have pretty much given up on HD DVD winning a week all year now...

Here's a quote of mine from post #8076

I don't think there's a chance in hell of Blu-ray getting 70% next week. I would be SHOCKED if Blu-ray was to do 64:36. I'm expecting the first HD DVD win of the year by 53:47.

I'll leave it at that.

Well, I would also anticipate that since Universal does have some rights to the shrek franchise, and also paramount distributed Dreamgirls on HD-DVD as well. Shrek the Third isn't going to be a blu ray exclusive.

Also, Universal studios also has Bourne Ultimatum, The Kingdom also is coming out sometime around christmas if studios keep with their fast release to DVD 3 months later.

Also they are exclusive with the new adam sandler film.

This is just universal stuff.

I would also say that we are kind of expecting more than people should expect from the public. A lot of people are just finally getting to the point where they think DVD is finally affordable with columbia house releases being around 10-14 dollars.

To expect consumers to rush out and buy a player to see a movie in blu ray is a bit presumptuous

Originally Posted by rdjam
Again, given that the numbers are reported a week later, you'd see that the numbers for that week were 61/39.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/show...&&#post10740586

Wrong.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom060307/index.php?startpage=5

Read very sssssslowwwwlyyyyy after me

Blu-ray
and
HD DVD
Sales
Comparison
as
of
5/27/07

Week
ended
5/27
69/31

Can we move on now?
This only PROVES my point (I'll ignore the stereotypical sarcasm).

Are you saying that a week with STACKS of HD DVD releases in HD DVD's favour only manged 31 to 69, yet the following week, supposedly an ordinary-hum-drum-same-old week for releases on both sides, inexplicably rocketed to 39 to 61???

You are missing the point, here. The numbers are taking an extra week to show the impact of these release strategies.

You all feel that the only business that counts is the pre-orders. Pre-orders are mostly what shows up in the first week of these numbers, as they are fulfilled.

However, counter sales, as well as regular orders made when people realize the titles are available, are what drives the overall numbers after the initial pre-order fulfillment.

THAT is why numbers YOU quote are 31/69, yet the numbers for the following week jump to 39/61. The impact of the new releases was truly reflected in the following week's numbers.

Anyone with common sense can see that this is happening. There would be no other reason at all for the following week to be higher than the week that you focus on.

By not looking at the following week, you are pre-judging the true impact of the new releases.

If you disagree, would you care to explain, then, why the following week was so much higher?

I will challenge you and state flat out here, that next week's numbers will show a much higher HD DVD ratio, reflecting these new titles.

I really want the first two bournes (probably will want the 3rd as well, just haven't watched it yet). Great flicks. I could see a lot of people picking those up for sure.

Let's just put it this way. Evan Almighty was supposed to be the big Summer Hit for Universal, costing $250M to make and advertise. So far, they have seen less than $70M worldwide in ticket revenue.

Universal is going to take a bath on that one, and I'm not sure if they have a flick set up to be the big DVD seller this Christmastime. 2007 is not going to be a good year for Universal.

Ok, looking ahead...

Based on releases for the 3rd, I am going to predict 68/32

I think the Patriot will have a strong showing but I am really bad at the top 3 predictions.

It's an amazing result for Blu-ray, the only way I can explain it is there were too many titles out on HD DVD. Let's take an average HD DVD owner, he probably only buys a few titles every month lets say 2 a week maximum. Last week comes along and he picks up 2 titles because there's a big choice and he finds 2 that he has to have. At the same time, a Blu-ray owner with the same purchasing priorities also buys 2 titles. Given that there seems to be more people buying BD's than HD-DVD's the format with more owners would have more sales.

Or to put it another way, having 14 titles v 2 titles only makes a difference when someone is willing to buy 3 or more titles that week. I doubt many HD DVD owners bought 3 titles, and even fewer bought 4 and so on.

Let's just put it this way. Evan Almighty was supposed to be the big Summer Hit for Universal, costing $250M to make and advertise. So far, they have seen less than $70M worldwide in ticket revenue.

Given that the only major market it's opened in is the US, I wouldn't say that's a fair comment. However I think the indications are that they won't do too well but they'll make their money back eventually, it just won't be the summer smash they need right now.

The red format's hope lies in Warner somehow deciding to extend them a helping hand and do another matrix boost --- Perhaps release LOTR on red before blu. This seems somewhat counter-intuitive if Warner as an organization can together agree on what their long term goal is : (is it to keep both formats on life supportfor years, or is it to have only one?)



[These are my guesses so please do not ask for backup.]

I think that Warners is in a state of flux. Clearly, WHV preferred HD DVD and did everything to try to tilt toward that format despite instructions from TW.

Then, they decided that both formats could co-exist, so they came forward with THD.

But they have put THD on the backburner now. That suggests that they may understand that there will only be one winner and that THD.

The release of Blood Diamond and 300 without the interactive features on Blu-ray is very important. It suggests that they may be realizing that Blu-ray is going to win. Of course it also may mean that they have figured out that the interactive features are not that important right now and getting the title out is more critical.

According to Bill Hunt, there was a lot of angst inside of Warners about Matrix. I doubt that we will see such an effort for HD DVD again.

Prediction: Warners will play it straight for a while and even make up some of the slights they have provided to Blu-ray (Troy, Batman Begins, Matrix for example).

This only PROVES my point

If we go back to that span of time, we can no doubt see what the breakdown was for the HD DVD top ten for both the weeks in question; why don't we do that and see what happens in terms of your theory.

Since you're one for proclamations though rdjam, care to make a guess as to what next weeks numbers will look like?

I would also mention that there are times when movies do better on home DVD than they did in the theatres....

So Evan almighty could have an excellent showing in the home movie/rental market as well. A lot of people I know just write down movies they think they will like and buy them as it is cheaper than going to the movies! And lets not forget the movie is only been out two weeks!

We will have to wait and see, but I have pretty much given up on HD DVD winning a week all year now...
My hope is also fading that HD DVD can win a week. The way I envision events playing out is that BD will really pull away after summer so summer is HD's best chance.

batman begins will be out before xmas; matrix will be out in 2008 and apparently it may be available as separates as well as box-set due to gross failure of hd-dvd release.

Well, that's a bit silly. Are there any serious HD DVD proponents who have suggested that your Blu-ray movies won't play after many of the current Blu-ray players become obsolete? I think it's generally understood that the obsolescence will only extend to certain extra features. (And it will only occur in those players that don't have the necessary hardware and ability to be upgraded through firmware -- meaning, probably, that the PS3 will not be obsolete.)No - click the link below if there is any confusion. All that has been said is that most of the standalone BD players will not EVER be able to play the advanced interactive features that are "promised" for bluray when BD 1.1 and 1.2 are finally finished - features that HD DVD already handles. So these BD players will effectively be obsolete, not that they will "blow up" (although you never know ;) )

I guess what I'm saying is that I don't think the egos of any HD DVD owners will suffer much when your Blu-ray movies still play. :)Not that this statement is all that bad, but when I look at the last 2 pages of this discussion, it is very saddening to see how much of the debating style has been about the "people" and various forms of ridicule.

If someone has a better explanation as to why the numbers the week after are consistently showing the HD increases fom the releases, then please feel free to elaborate. I'm waiting...

batman begins will be out before xmas; matrix will be out in 2008 and apparently it may be available as separates as well as box-set due to gross failure of hd-dvd release.

I am waiting for seperates on BD, If I can't get 'The Matrix' by itself, then I will probably just rent.

Ok, looking ahead...

Based on releases for the 3rd, I am going to predict 68/32

I think the Patriot will have a strong showing but I am really bad at the top 3 predictions.
And I say 60/40...

No - click the link below if there is any confusion. All that has been said is that most of the standalone BD players will not EVER be able to play the advanced interactive features that are "promised" for bluray when BD 1.1 and 1.2 are finally finished - features that HD DVD already handles. So these BD players will effectively be obsolete, not that they will "blow up" (although you never know ;) )

Not that this statement is all that bad, but when I look at the last 2 pages of this discussion, it is very saddening to see how much of the debating style has been about the "people" and various forms of ridicule.

If someone has a better explanation as to why the numbers the week after are consistently showing the HD increases fom the releases, then please feel free to elaborate. I'm waiting...

Maybe BD is selling less after its big releases which makes the percentage of HD DVD go up.

We know that sales are not consistent week to week and we are only comparing percentages, not actual sales figures.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom070807/index.php?startpage=0

ouch, so much for this week being the week that HD-DVD would come up top. Time for "next week" :D ;)
Said who? The only people who kept telling us that HD DVD has to win this week are Blu-ray supporters.

If I may quote myself:
Thoughts? The DVDEmpire numbers are completely different from the Nielsen numbers so they're not worth much. Unfortunately. Because a 43% market share would be outstanding for HD DVD.
(...)
Do you think a dozen catalog exclusives are suddenly going to completely neutralize Blu-ray's user base advantage?

Catalog titles have never had a significant impact on the weekly sales numbers. Even The Matrix didn't pull crazy big numbers.

I went ahead and did what you obviously would not do rdjam, and compared HD DVD's "top 5" for the two weeks in question w/your theory.

For the week ending 5/27, these were the top 5:

Top 5 HD DVD
1 Ultimate Matrix Coll 100.00
2 Complete Matrix Coll 77.99
3 Letters from Iwo Jima 66.30
4 Planet Earth 52.73
5 The 40-Year Old Virgin 26.96

For the following week (the week you say reflects the actual pick-up) these were the relative numbers:

1. Planet Earth 100.00
2. Ultimate Matrix 73.17
3. Complete Matrix 68.37
4. Letters from Iwo Jima 66.59
5. Flags of our Fathers 42.41

The only thing I see there is the return of Planet Earth to #1 after a week.

Are you saying that a week with STACKS of HD DVD releases in HD DVD's favour only manged 31 to 69, yet the following week, supposedly an ordinary-hum-drum-same-old week for releases on both sides, inexplicably rocketed to 39 to 61???Now you're getting it.
You are missing the point, here. The numbers are taking an extra week to show the impact of these release strategies.I don't know where in your ass you're pulling this idea from. Let's take the releases of 5/8:

Blu-ray:
Catch & Release (Sony)
Dirty Dancing (20th Anniversary Edition) (Lionsgate)
Donnie Brasco (Sony)
Revenge (Sony)

HD DVD:
NONE.

In the numbers ending that week (5/13), Blu-ray did 62/38, an improvement over the previous week (5/1 titles tracked through 5/6) where HD DVD had a bunch of exclusives that Blu-ray did not. However, the next week's (5/20) sales numbers actually showed a drop in BD sales. If I was to trust you, they should have seen a significant rise. So, there goes your theory.
You all feel that the only business that counts is the pre-orders. Pre-orders are mostly what shows up in the first week of these numbers, as they are fulfilled.

However, counter sales, as well as regular orders made when people realize the titles are available, are what drives the overall numbers after the initial pre-order fulfillment.Again, you show your ignorance of this thread. No one cares about pre-orders except your vaunted market source, Amazon. However, we care about Nielsen, who only tracks POS and fulfilled (charged and shipped) transactions.
THAT is why numbers YOU quote are 31/69, yet the numbers for the following week jump to 39/61. The impact of the new releases was truly reflected in the following week's numbers.

Anyone with common sense can see that this is happening. There would be no other reason at all for the following week to be higher than the week that you focus on.

By not looking at the following week, you are pre-judging the true impact of the new releases.As I proved above, that theory is poppycock, unless you want to claim it only happens on certain weeks that you choose, in which case you're so far off-base in this thread as to be a laughingstock.
If you disagree, would you care to explain, then, why the following week was so much higher?Maybe people bought a lot of Blu-ray players. Maybe they heard something that stopped them from buying HD DVD. Maybe there just wasn't anything Universal had that they wanted. Pick from one of those.
I will challenge you and state flat out here, that next week's numbers will show a much higher HD DVD ratio, reflecting these new titles.No one believes HD DVD will have higher numbers nextweek. If they couldn't do it this week, then it can only go downhill until a big day-and-date title hits, but even that's not a guarantee.

batman begins will be out before xmas; matrix will be out in 2008 and apparently it may be available as separates as well as box-set due to gross failure of hd-dvd release.

I'm not sure that from Warner's perspective it was such a gross failure: very few people would have bought Reloaded or Revolutions if they didn't have to. Now Warner could charge $75 to those people who absolutely wanted to see the Matrix on HD without looking terribly greedy. Great price discrimination!

Agreed. Personally, I thought that BD would win again for the week, but I thought it would be closer when you looked at the release schedule. With a PS3 price cut eminent, and BD player prices dropping faster than most people expected, along with all the huge Blu-Ray-only blockbuster movies that will be coming in Q4, I think it is safe to say that Blu-Ray will win for the year by a large margin, and HD DVD may not even win one single week all year..


Is anyone in this thread really expecting hd dvd to ever cut appreciably into the blu ray sales ratio lead with only a fraction of the total players in circulation? :confused:

Even with the attach rate difference between the PS3 and standalone hd dvd players the sheer difference in numbers for the players in circulation makes this an incredulous expectation. Monthly PS3 sales compared to high def player sales only add to this trend and at best hd dvd could hold it's ratio unless something changed in hardware numbers 1st.

Unless and until total hd dvd player number sales get much closer to PS3 this would appear to be an exercise in futility, unless some hd dvd supporters just like to get beat up on. :)

Said who? The only people who kept telling us that HD DVD has to win this week are Blu-ray supporters.

If I may quote myself:

When do you expect HD DVD to outsell BD in a week?

It seemed that this week was the best chance given the release schedules.

Are you saying that you don't expect HD DVD to outsell BD even with more releases?

5% higher sales on the HD DVD version is very significant when one takes into account other BD titles sell 45% more than HD.

It speaks volumes about the demographics of the user bases.

Your sample size of ONE certainly "speaks volumes about the demographics of the user bases." :rolleyes:

Said who? The only people who kept telling us that HD DVD has to win this week are Blu-ray supporters.

If I may quote myself:

Ken Graffeo pretty much set this thing up. Several weeks ago, when Blockbuster announces their Blu-ray exclusive expansion, he complained several times in the press that the decision was defective because it was based on Q1 when HD DVD had few titles. He said that they should be looking at Q2 when Universal had sprung into action.

Now that the end of Q2 is here, and Universal has had its best shot week, it can only be a time to reflect on whether Universal has been effective in its support of HD DVD.

The real question is: How many dual-format people will buy 300 HD DVD instead of the Bluray version, because the idea of the extra features and web content excites them and they want to check out the future of home entertainment?

I wouldn't be so hasty to call SD PIP "the future of home entertainment." It is more like a low resolution preview of what will be possible in 6 months, but when both streams are in HD and interchangeable.

Said who? The only people who kept telling us that HD DVD has to win this week are Blu-ray supporters.


You're kidding right? What about all the whining from HD DVD fans in Jan and Feb when Blu-ray had more catalog releases than HD DVD and the excuse was: "Well, Blu-ray had more releases than HD DVD, which is why it outsold it". Even Universal's Ken Graffeo went public stating that.

Now it's completely reversed, with HD DVD having more titles released in the last few weeks, and with HD DVD enjoying a price drop in standalones and the numbers are still 2:1.

Originally Posted by rdjam
The real question is: How many dual-format people will buy 300 HD DVD instead of the Bluray version, because the idea of the extra features and web content excites them and they want to check out the future of home entertainment?

If you are insinuating that 300 on HD DVD is going to outsell the Blu-ray version; this is madness!

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom070807/index.php?startpage=0
Notice the big Disney ad on pages 4 and 5. Includes the quote: "Disney Blu-Ray - Better than Perfect".

Hard to believe they are really considering going neutral anytime soon as many suggest given this ongoing ad campaign.

Notice the big Disney ad on pages 4 and 5. Includes the quote: "Disney Blu-Ray - Better than Perfect".

Hard to believe they are really considering going neutral anytime soon as many suggest given this ongoing ad campaign.

Awesome, Disney has been giving us fantastic transfers as well :D


--------
THE DEFINITION OF A WINNER. DISNEY BLU-RAY. BETTER THAN PERFECT

You're kidding right? What about all the whining from HD DVD fans in Jan and Feb when Blu-ray had more catalog releases than HD DVD and the excuse was: "Well, Blu-ray had more releases than HD DVD, which is why it outsold it". Even Universal's Ken Graffeo went public stating that.

Now it's completely reversed, with HD DVD having more titles released in the last few weeks, and with HD DVD enjoying a price drop in standalones and the numbers are still 2:1.



If you are insinuating that 300 on HD DVD is going to outsell the Blu-ray version; this is madness!


Good to see you didn't have a memory lapse :)

If someone has a better explanation as to why the numbers the week after are consistently showing the HD increases fom the releases, then please feel free to elaborate. I'm waiting...Simple. The numbers from the week after are not consistently showing the increases. Proven wrong several times, but you keep on butting your head against the wall. It's not our fault your logic is completely screwed. Here's some salt and lemon juice for you:

04/15:
3 BD, no exclusives
3 HD, no exclusives
ratio=61/39

04/22:
2 BD, 2 exclusives
5 HD, 5 exclusives
ratio=52/48

04/29
7 BD, 5 exclusives
5 HD, 3 exclusives
ratio=71/29
Using the crazy rdjam logic, HD DVD should have gained market share here, but it actually fell

05/06
3 BD, 1 exclusive
6 HD, 4 exclusive
ratio=60/40
Using the crazy rdjam logic, Blu-ray should have gained market share here, but it actually fell

05/13
4 BD, 4 exclusive
0 HD
ratio=62/38
Using the crazy rdjam logic, HD DVD should have gained market share here, but it actually fell

05/20
4 BD, 1 exclusive
3 HD, 0 exclusive
ratio=58/42

05/27
9 BD, 4 exclusive
11 HD, 6 exclusive
ratio=69/31

06/03
4 BD, 4 exclusive
6 HD, 6 exclusive
ratio=61/39

06/10
10 BD, 5 exclusive
5 HD, 0 exclusive
ratio=66/34
Using the crazy rdjam logic, HD DVD should have gained market share here, but it actually fell

06/17
7 BD, 6 exclusive
11 HD, 10 exclusive
ratio=64/36
Using the crazy rdjam logic, Blu-ray should have gained market share here, but it actually fell

06/24
1 BD, 1 exclusive
0 HD
ratio=70/30
Using the crazy rdjam logic, HD DVD should have gained market share here, but it actually fell

So, rdjam, either you've been misinterpreting the dates from Nielsen (which you have vehemently denied several times now), or your theory is completely worthless. Either way, you're 100% wrong. Choose whichever you feel will make you sleep better.

Is anyone in this thread really expecting hd dvd to ever cut appreciably into the blu ray sales ratio lead with only a fraction of the total players in circulation? :confused:

Even with the attach rate difference between the PS3 and standalone hd dvd players the sheer difference in numbers for the players in circulation makes this an incredulous expectation. Monthly PS3 sales compared to high def player sales only add to this trend and at best hd dvd could hold it's ratio unless something changed in hardware numbers 1st.

Unless and until total hd dvd player number sales get much closer to PS3 this would appear to be an exercise in futility, unless some hd dvd supporters just like to get beat up on. :)

I think there are many HD DVD supporters that think the recent promotions and price cuts on Toshiba players will be the difference maker and at least close the gap much closer to 60:40 than 70:30. I think Universal is counting on it as well. With an eminent PS3 price drop and Blu-Ray player prices getting slashed left and right along with free movie promotions and places like Costco selling the new Sony player, I think Universal going neutral and putting an end to the format war is much closer than people realize... Unless something crazy happens, I suspect Universal will go neutral in early 2008 (CES?)

Simple. The numbers from the week after are not consistently showing the increases. Proven wrong several times, but you keep on butting your head against the wall. It's not our fault your logic is completely screwed. Here's some salt and lemon juice for you:

04/15:
3 BD, no exclusives
3 HD, no exclusives
ratio=61/39

04/22:
2 BD, 2 exclusives
5 HD, 5 exclusives
ratio=52/48

04/29
7 BD, 5 exclusives
5 HD, 3 exclusives
ratio=71/29
Using the crazy rdjam logic, HD should have gained market share here, but it actually fell

05/06
3 BD, 1 exclusive
6 HD, 4 exclusive
ratio=60/40
Using the crazy rdjam logic, Blu-ray should have gained market share here, but it actually fell


Nice work. I think rdjam just got 0wned...
05/13
4 BD, 4 exclusive
0 HD
ratio=62/38
Using the crazy rdjam logic, HD should have gained market share here, but it actually fell

05/20
4 BD, 1 exclusive
3 HD, 0 exclusive
ratio=58/42

05/27
9 BD, 4 exclusive
11 HD, 6 exclusive
ratio=69/31

06/03
4 BD, 4 exclusive
6 HD, 6 exclusive
ratio=61/39
Using the crazy rdjam logic, HD should have gained market share here, but it actually fell

06/10
10 BD, 5 exclusive
5 HD, 0 exclusive
ratio=66/34

06/17
7 BD, 6 exclusive
11 HD, 10 exclusive
ratio=64/36
Using the crazy rdjam logic, Blu-ray should have gained market share here, but it actually fell

06/24
1 BD, 1 exclusive
0 HD
ratio=70/30
Using the crazy rdjam logic, HD should have gained market share here, but it actually fell

Nice work! Rdjam, looks like you just got 0wned....

Nice work! Rdjam, looks like you just got 0wned....

Rdjam: The Look and Sound of Whining... :)

Note that I'd misplaced the 6/10 reference. I re-edited to reflect that.

If you are insinuating that 300 on HD DVD is going to outsell the Blu-ray version; this is madness!

THIS. IS. FANBOYISM.

Simple. The numbers from the week after are not consistently showing the increases. Proven wrong several times, but you keep on butting your head against the wall. It's not our fault your logic is completely screwed. Here's some salt and lemon juice for you:

04/15:
3 BD, no exclusives
3 HD, no exclusives
ratio=61/39

04/22:
2 BD, 2 exclusives
5 HD, 5 exclusives
ratio=52/48

04/29
7 BD, 5 exclusives
5 HD, 3 exclusives
ratio=71/29
Using the crazy rdjam logic, HD DVD should have gained market share here, but it actually fell

05/06
3 BD, 1 exclusive
6 HD, 4 exclusive
ratio=60/40
Using the crazy rdjam logic, Blu-ray should have gained market share here, but it actually fell

05/13
4 BD, 4 exclusive
0 HD
ratio=62/38
Using the crazy rdjam logic, HD DVD should have gained market share here, but it actually fell

05/20
4 BD, 1 exclusive
3 HD, 0 exclusive
ratio=58/42

05/27
9 BD, 4 exclusive
11 HD, 6 exclusive
ratio=69/31

06/03
4 BD, 4 exclusive
6 HD, 6 exclusive
ratio=61/39

06/10
10 BD, 5 exclusive
5 HD, 0 exclusive
ratio=66/34
Using the crazy rdjam logic, HD DVD should have gained market share here, but it actually fell

06/17
7 BD, 6 exclusive
11 HD, 10 exclusive
ratio=64/36
Using the crazy rdjam logic, Blu-ray should have gained market share here, but it actually fell

06/24
1 BD, 1 exclusive
0 HD
ratio=70/30
Using the crazy rdjam logic, HD DVD should have gained market share here, but it actually fell

So, rdjam, either you've been misinterpreting the dates from Nielsen (which you have vehemently denied several times now), or your theory is completely worthless. Either way, you're 100% wrong. Choose whichever you feel will make you sleep better.

Beautiful work, sir. I'd like to shake your e-hand.

I think there are many HD DVD supporters that think the recent promotions and price cuts on Toshiba players will be the difference maker and at least close the gap much closer to 60:40 than 70:30. I think Universal is counting on it as well. With an eminent PS3 price drop and Blu-Ray player prices getting slashed left and right along with free movie promotions and places like Costco selling the new Sony player, I think Universal going neutral and putting an end to the format war is much closer than people realize... Unless something crazy happens, I suspect Universal will go neutral in early 2008 (CES?)

Hmm, and so even if so (which is very doubtful at the current player sales ratios) going from 70:30 to 60:40 would accomplish what? Certainly not major studio alignment changes. Hardware numbers will matter much more than ratios no?

Even if the numbers went to 80:20 BD but the 20 hd dvd represented say 5 million hd dvd players, that would be more significant. At the same time 70:30 only means so much as long as the 70 represents a miniscule amount of buying consumers which is where hd dvd has it's opening if it can change the hardware ratios.

Clearly Toshiba understands this which is why they are making the hd dvd move with their laptops and working with the Chinese. Expecting a few exclusive movie releases (mostly catalog titles at that) to make an appreciable change seems so unreasonable for AVSer's.

[QUOTE=rdjam]No - click the link below if there is any confusion. All that has been said is that most of the standalone BD players will not EVER be able to play the advanced interactive features that are "promised" for bluray when BD 1.1 and 1.2 are finally finished - features that HD DVD already handles. So these BD players will effectively be obsolete, not that they will "blow up" (although you never know ;) )

The problem is with your use of the word obsolete. All current blu-ray players will be able to play the audio and video of 100% of future and current blu-ray movies in a pristine manner. There may be a few features on a few future releases that current players will not recognize. These players will hardly be obsolete.

Your bias and use of the extremely misleading (and false) term obsolete shows your ( and other HD DVD fans) true colors about this issue.

Don't forget, all blu-ray players will blow up in October so you can't watch your blu-ray movies. I'd hate to see what would happen to the ego's of the HD DVD owners if my blu-ray movies still work in October :eek:

:D ;)

Clearly Toshiba understands this which is why they are making the hd dvd move with their laptops and working with the Chinese. Expecting a few exclusive movie releases (mostly catalog titles at that) to make an appreciable change seems so unreasonable for AVSer's.

Toshiba has no other moves to make. If Universal goes neutral, what else can Toshiba do? I will believe Toshiba putting HD DVD players in all of their laptops when I see it (I think higher end laptops will have it as standard, but lower end budget laptops will allow it to be optional). Same with the Chinese. We keep hearing about all these mythical cheap Chinese players, but I have yet to see any valid proof that these will be here in time for the holidays. Perhaps, they will but if Toshiba keeps slashing their prices on their player what it is the point? If a Chinese player costs $199 and a Toshiba player costs $199 which one would you buy? Even if there was a $149 Chinese player, I would not recommend anyone buy it over a $199 Toshiba player based on all the problems and firmware updates we have seen on both formats.

Nice work! Rdjam, looks like you just got 0wned....Rdjam: The Look and Sound of Whining... :)Beautiful work, sir. I'd like to shake your e-hand.Thank you, folks, I'll be here all week. Don't forget to try the fish and tip your waiter.

Competing Titles:

HD DVD
* American Me (Universal)
* Army of Darkness (Re-issue) (Universal)
* Being John Malkovich (Universal)
* The Big Lebowski (Universal)
* Black Snake Moan (Paramount)
* Bulletproof (Universal)
* Dead Silence (Universal)
* Freedom: 1 (Bandai Visual)
* Hustle & Flow (Paramount)
* Mallrats (Universal)
* Meet Joe Black (Universal)
* Mystery Men (Universal)
* Unleashed (Re-issue) (Universal)
* The Watcher (Universal)

Blu-ray
* Black Snake Moan (Paramount)
* Hustle & Flow (Paramount)

And it still was 65:35.

<nelson> Ha Ha!! </nelson>

Originally Posted by joshd2012
Competing Titles:

HD DVD
* American Me (Universal)
* Army of Darkness (Re-issue) (Universal)
* Being John Malkovich (Universal)
* The Big Lebowski (Universal)
* Black Snake Moan (Paramount)
* Bulletproof (Universal)
* Dead Silence (Universal)
* Freedom: 1 (Bandai Visual)
* Hustle & Flow (Paramount)
* Mallrats (Universal)
* Meet Joe Black (Universal)
* Mystery Men (Universal)
* Unleashed (Re-issue) (Universal)
* The Watcher (Universal)

Blu-ray
* Black Snake Moan (Paramount)
* Hustle & Flow (Paramount)

And it still was 65:35.

Welll Hustle & Flow cancel each other out right? lol

Black Snake Moan for total domination.. Who would have thought :eek:


.
.
.
.
wth is Black Snake Moan about anyways.. Preview shows Samual L. with Ricci on a leash or something.

No - click the link below if there is any confusion. All that has been said is that most of the standalone BD players will not EVER be able to play the advanced interactive features that are "promised" for bluray when BD 1.1 and 1.2 are finally finished - features that HD DVD already handles.That was very misleading. I'm sure you know that HD DVD doesn't handle all those features now, since HD PiP is an optional feature for HD DVD (like it is for Blu-ray), while as far as we know HD PiP will never be a mandatory feature for players for HD DVD like it will become for Blu-ray. Yes, HD DVD has SD PiP as mandatory now, but please quit making it look like HD DVD has all the features that BD will be making mandatory or that there isn't the chance that HD PiP will get implemented on HD DVD releases (if it won't ever be used, why was it put in the HD DVD spec?) and many current HD DVD player owners will be in a situation where an extra feature on discs doesn't work for them.

--Darin

I know this question will probably upset some people, but I think it is a valid question. As somebody pointed out, one problem for Universal is that Best Buy doesn't seem to be stocking their catalog titles. They also aren't stocking many other catalog titles, but this question is mostly about Universal and I think Best Buy stocks some catalogs. While Best Buy is officially neutral and seems to be for the most part (other than some BBs having bigger Blu-ray sections), I wonder if Universal going neutral or even switching sides would get BB to start stocking their catalog titles. Given that Best Buy would only need one section and there wouldn't be the issues with the format war, it would not surprise me at all if a move to Blu-ray exclusively by Universal would get Best Buy to start stocking those titles which they seem unwilling to stock now.

I doubt Universal is going to just switch sides like that (it would upset a lot of people) and I don't know if going neutral would be enough to get Best Buy to start carrying the majority of their catalog titles, but I think Universal really should be giving some thought to their current problem of BB not carrying so many of their titles and what they could do to change that.

--Darin

The thinly veiled insults = rofl

I know this question will probably upset some people, but I think it is a valid question. As somebody pointed out, one problem for Universal is that Best Buy doesn't seem to be stocking their catalog titles. They also aren't stocking many other catalog titles, but this question is mostly about Universal and I think Best Buy stocks some catalogs. While Best Buy is officially neutral and seems to be for the most part (other than some BBs having bigger Blu-ray sections), I wonder if Universal going neutral or even switching sides would get BB to start stocking their catalog titles. Given that Best Buy would only need one section and there wouldn't be the issues with the format war, it would not surprise me at all if a move to Blu-ray exclusively by Universal would get Best Buy to start stocking those titles which they seem unwilling to stock now.

I doubt Universal is going to just switch sides like that (it would upset a lot of people) and I don't know if going neutral would be enough to get Best Buy to start carrying the majority of their catalog titles, but I think Universal really should be giving some thought to their current problem of BB not carrying so many of their titles and what they could do to change that.

--Darin

I think that the reason BB isn't stocking the titles is that they don't expect them to sell well, and it may kind of be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

So maybe if Universal released catalog titles that were expected to sell well then BB would carry them and they would sell well.

I personally don't buy movies from Bestbuy, but many may, I really don't know.

I think that the reason BB isn't stocking the titles is that they don't expect them to sell well, and it may kind of be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

So maybe if Universal released catalog titles that were expected to sell well then BB would carry them and they would sell well.

I personally don't buy movies from Bestbuy, but many may, I really don't know.

The fact that BB has one of the worst pricing of the B&M stores (IMO) doesnt help either. It's hard enough swallowing the $30 price tag of new releases. The catalog releases at a similar price point is an even tougher pill to swallow.

The fact that BB has one of the worst pricing of the B&M stores (IMO) doesnt help either. It's hard enough swallowing the $30 price tag of new releases. The catalog releases at a similar price point is an even tougher pill to swallow.

Well, that is why I don't buy movies there, Amazon for me!

I've bought about half my BD and HDDVD from Best Buy (almost always price matched to Frys). :shrug:

Catalog just does not sell as well as day & date. Does anyone dispute that?

I think that the reason BB isn't stocking the titles is that they don't expect them to sell well, and it may kind of be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

So maybe if Universal released catalog titles that were expected to sell well then BB would carry them and they would sell well.I understand, but I still think that if there was only one format BB would be more likely to carry the lower titles. As it is they have to find space for 2 high def versions of many movies, where that space could be used for carrying more titles. Put another way, when Universal releases a movie now, if Best Buy puts it on the shelves then probably half or less of the HD disc buyers have a player that can play it. If there was only one format then everybody with a player could play it. So, the threshold for Best Buy to order the title and make shelf space for it is likely harder to reach for an exclusive studio when there are 2 formats. That goes for both formats to some degree, but is likely more of a problem with the format selling worse in general.

I hadn't really given it that much thought before, but I think stores being less likely to order any copies of lesser exclusive titles is one result of the format war.

--Darin

Amazon's rankings are based of price. HMM is based on unit. That is why Planet Earth continually remains on the top even though many other titles outsell it at the unit level. Amazon ranking have been continually proven to be not relevant to sales conversations.

Feel free to give examples on what titles are selling more units on Amazon than Planet Earth at any given time. Considering that PE costs 3-4 times a regular release they should sell that many times more.

It is very easy to follow the units.

The Amazon ranks given are based on units nothing else.

The reason why PE (and other expensive sets) is selling proportionally more on-line compared to other titles is easily explained if you look at the price difference compared to b&m stores. The difference is often 30 bucks compared to most titles being 0-10 dollars different.

If you can't find any examples close enough in ranks to PE feel free to use the Matrix sets. There are plenty of other titles around the same ranks.

Furthermore, it would be interesting to use your logic on the Amazon hardware ranks.

Is anyone in this thread really expecting hd dvd to ever cut appreciably into the blu ray sales ratio lead with only a fraction of the total players in circulation? :confused:

Even with the attach rate difference between the PS3 and standalone hd dvd players the sheer difference in numbers for the players in circulation makes this an incredulous expectation. Monthly PS3 sales compared to high def player sales only add to this trend and at best hd dvd could hold it's ratio unless something changed in hardware numbers 1st.

Unless and until total hd dvd player number sales get much closer to PS3 this would appear to be an exercise in futility, unless some hd dvd supporters just like to get beat up on. :)

IMO, this is the most reasonable post today. With the current hardware penetration and trends, there is no reason to expect HD-DVD to win a week. And even if they did, what would it matter? The landscape would not change appreciably, and there would be little reason to expect them to repeat.

I'd been on the fence until last week, when the price drop and a CC gift card and coupon allowed me to get the A2 for about $200. At that price, if it ends up being mainly and SD upconverter, that will be fine.

As for disc purchases, I went to Target and bought Happy Feet for the kids, and I was swayed by the fact that it was a combo that could be played on our portable player and on the computers. I activated HD-DVD on my Netflix account and queued up a load of HD titles. Then I ordered Out of Sight from Amazon yesterday.

What I'm trying to illustrate is that I am a new adopter who is not salivating over new releases and who will pick up probably a couple of catalog titles a month. Now, that will not in and of itself make a major impact on the weekly sales, but the low hardware prices will likely get more people like me into HDOM.

If this "war" is won, it won't be because of who is victorious in the weekly battles. As a matter of fact, we'd all be better off if overall volume continued to increase at a rapid rate to the point that two viable markets are created and HD releases became events of interest outside of forums like this one.

Welll Hustle & Flow cancel each other out right? lol

Black Snake Moan for total domination.. Who would have thought :eek:


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wth is Black Snake Moan about anyways.. Preview shows Samual L. with Ricci on a leash or something.

It's about Sam Jackson taming Ricci's nympho of a character.

I went ahead and did what you obviously would not do rdjam, and compared HD DVD's "top 5" for the two weeks in question w/your theory.

For the week ending 5/27, these were the top 5:

For the following week (the week you say reflects the actual pick-up) these were the relative numbers:

The only thing I see there is the return of Planet Earth to #1 after a week.
What you have done here makes no sense at all.

I have stated that the Amazon numbers will show changes earlier than the Nielsen numbers, and that big releases will show their impact over an extra week on Nielsen.

To make your point, you show the 5/27 Amazon title rankings, which I contend would match more closely with the Nielsen numbers of a week later - which would be the June 3rd Nielsen numbers of 61/39.

But then you show the Amazon title rankings for the following week, without including the Nielsen numbers for the following week also, which would be June 10th.

If I'm right, the Amazon rankings that you've included for the following week (June 3rd), showing PE back on top, will more closely match the Nielsen numbers of June 10th, with a drop of HD DVD share down from the 39%.

Anyone have the Nielsen numbers for that following week? They were 66/34... reinforces what I am saying.

Furthermore - the big Bluray week you are talking about would be reflected a week later than you think, and again my point is backed up by the numbers.

What I'm trying to illustrate is that I am a new adopter who is not salivating over new releases and who will pick up probably a couple of catalog titles a month. Now, that will not in and of itself make a major impact on the weekly sales, but the low hardware prices will likely get more people like me into HDOM.

You are the consumer that Toshiba and Sony fear. You buy their subsidized player and then don't buy their overpriced releases to make up for it. Toshiba can only hope that not everyone who took advantage of their deal is like you, but the numbers don't seem to indicate otherwise.

It's about Sam Jackson taming Ricci's nympho of a character.

sounds like a winner to me, lol. I think I'll pass. If he were "taming" Salma Hayek or Shakira I'm in :D

What you have done here makes no sense at all.

I have stated that the Amazon numbers will show changes earlier than the Nielsen numbers, and that big releases will show their impact over an extra week on Nielsen.

To make your point, you show the 5/27 Amazon title rankings, which I contend would match more closely with the Nielsen numbers of a week later - which would be the June 3rd Nielsen numbers of 61/39.

But then you show the Amazon title rankings for the following week, without including the Nielsen numbers for the following week also, which would be June 10th.

If I'm right, the Amazon rankings that you've included for the following week (June 3rd), showing PE back on top, will more closely match the Nielsen numbers of June 10th, with a drop of HD DVD share down from the 39%.

Anyone have the Nielsen numbers for that following week?

but take the AMAZON title rankings for ANOTHER week later, without

The Nielsen data is in the first post of the thread, and since you are the one with the outlandish assumption maybe you should do the legwork.

Now you're getting it.
I don't know where in your ass you're pulling this idea from. Let's take the releases of 5/8:

..snip..Unbelievable that so many people here cannot have a discussion without becoming abusive as a debating style. It's simply a defense mechanism to shut down a discussion they don't like or are ill-equipped to participate in.

You are raising releases now that are 2 weeks after the period we are discussing, and would not even appear in the Amazon and Nielsen numbers I have commented on. Your tone doesn't help make your case any better.

In the numbers ending that week (5/13), Blu-ray did 62/38, an improvement over the previous week Then you go forward another week, further away from what was being discussed.

So, there goes your theory.Hardly...

Again, you show your ignorance of this thread. No one cares about pre-orders except your vaunted market source, Amazon. However, we care about Nielsen, who only tracks POS and fulfilled (charged and shipped) transactions.And the point you have missed is that pre-orders are the first to bill and ship, and make up a bigger portion of what will be tracked by Nielsen in the first week of release.

However, many people will buy they title when they hear it's shipping, or see it on the shelves and much of this will show in the second week of the reporting.

As I proved above, that theory is poppycock, unless you want to claim it only happens on certain weeks that you choose, in which case you're so far off-base in this thread as to be a laughingstock.You've proved nothing other than you can easily bring the level of a discussion down to a level where no one would like to participate. It's a "shutdown" style where you perhaps hope a parent or moderator jumps in and says "pipe down".


No one believes HD DVD will have higher numbers nextweek. Perhaps you missed my above challenge... I do. And with good reason.

The HD DVD release flood, will show it's impact in next week's Nielsen numbers, both due to Nielsens week delay in reporting, as well as because of the effect of pre-orders being a larger chunk of what ships in the first week.

So rdjam believes that the majority of people buy their releases/get charged for their releases the sunday after the tuesday that they come out.

I'd say let's wait another week and see what the numbers are but I'm sure we'd be back to another "next week!" series of posts. Or that nobody understands what he's trying to say.

HMM has provided weeks and weeks worth of data to work with that a variety of people on all sides have essentially agreed is workable and useful for figuring out the status of things.

rdjam, any chance of you answering my question from a couple of pages back/a few hours ago about what features Blood Diamond has for connectivity that required the firmware upgrade that Freedom did not require?

IMO, this is the most reasonable post today. With the current hardware penetration and trends, there is no reason to expect HD-DVD to win a week. And even if they did, what would it matter? The landscape would not change appreciably, and there would be little reason to expect them to repeat.

I'd been on the fence until last week, when the price drop and a CC gift card and coupon allowed me to get the A2 for about $200. At that price, if it ends up being mainly and SD upconverter, that will be fine.

As for disc purchases, I went to Target and bought Happy Feet for the kids, and I was swayed by the fact that it was a combo that could be played on our portable player and on the computers. I activated HD-DVD on my Netflix account and queued up a load of HD titles. Then I ordered Out of Sight from Amazon yesterday.

What I'm trying to illustrate is that I am a new adopter who is not salivating over new releases and who will pick up probably a couple of catalog titles a month. Now, that will not in and of itself make a major impact on the weekly sales, but the low hardware prices will likely get more people like me into HDOM.

If this "war" is won, it won't be because of who is victorious in the weekly battles. As a matter of fact, we'd all be better off if overall volume continued to increase at a rapid rate to the point that two viable markets are created and HD releases became events of interest outside of forums like this one.

You make a very good point as well. If the end goal for hd movie fans is to hope to get more content pushed to hd optical then couldn't 2 viable markets/formats meet that goal just as well or better than one dominant format?

Sure retailers prefer one format and may or may not try to force it but who is to say that some publishers (eg. Indies etc.) may not find hd dvd's cost advantages a faster incentive get hd content out while some studios like Fox and Disney might night prefer BD's for it's extra DRM and max capacity?

Then again many here are just rooting for their chosen 'team' at this point, regardless of what the outcome means for hd content.

If you are insinuating that 300 on HD DVD is going to outsell the Blu-ray version; this is madness!
Your apparent shock aside, why not? Many dual-format owners will see that the HD DVD release is a better disc to own, both in terms of the content, as well as in the superior and novel extra features.

I'm not saying it will, only that it will have a better BD to HD rsales ratio than the average title.

Based on curiousity alone, I want this disc in HD just to see how it all works.

You are raising releases now that are 2 weeks after the period we are discussing, and would not even appear in the Amazon and Nielsen numbers I have commented on. Your tone doesn't help make your case any better.I can't believe you're still getting this wrong. There's only so many ways we can tell you that the Nielsen numbers posted end on the date provided. As anyone can tell from the figures I posted, it's not two weeks, but one. Again, maybe you got how it all worked mixed up in your head, but you kept on telling us that you weren't.
And the point you have missed is that pre-orders are the first to bill and ship, and make up a bigger portion of what will be tracked by Nielsen in the first week of release.I think you're being confusing with your usage of preordering. Pre-orders as we see them mean titles that can be ordered, but will not be on shelves or shipping centers until sometime in the future. Amazon is worthless for this, since preorders often show up weeks or even months in advance. The top title on Amazon for 5/27 could have been "Ghost Rider" for all we know, but it wasn't available until 6/12, which means it wasn't tracked by Nielsen.
You've proved nothing other than you can easily bring the level of a discussion down to a level where no one would like to participate. It's a "shutdown" style where you perhaps hope a parent or moderator jumps in and says "pipe down".Actually, it was explained to you calmly, but your attitude coming into the thread seemed elitist, antagonistic, and ultimately highly defensive. In addition, you pretty much just jumped into the thread and claimed that everything everyone was saying made no sense, but your method suddenly did.
Perhaps you missed my above challenge... I do. And with good reason.

The HD DVD release flood, will show it's impact in next week's Nielsen numbers, both due to Nielsens week delay in reporting, as well as because of the effect of pre-orders being a larger chunk of what ships in the first week.Do whatever you want. No one can predict how the masses will react, but as we've shown, your "week delay" theory holds no water whatsoever.

Just in case you are perhaps still befuddled by what everyone else grasps, since we've actually been following it, here's a timeline.

Movie(s) released Tuesday
Numbers tracked through Sunday
Numbers released following Friday

In other words, the movies released 6/26 are actually counted by Nielsen through 7/1, and the data from the week ending 7/1 is released 7/6.

Your apparent shock aside, why not? Many dual-format owners will see that the HD DVD release is a better disc to own, both in terms of the content, as well as in the superior and novel extra features.

I'm not saying it will, only that it will have a better BD to HD rsales ratio than the average title.

Based on curiousity alone, I want this disc in HD just to see how it all works.

The Departed was 62:38 favoring Blu-ray. It seems like the sort of title that will do well on Blu-ray, perhaps with a similar demographic to Departed.

It is certainly a test of the interactive features of HD DVD and how important they are. On the other hand. the HD DVD version will be a combo, and HD DVD supporters are always complaining about combos, so that may be another factor.

Many dual-format owners will see that the HD DVD release is a better disc to own

Just curious - any estimates on how many dual format owners there are, or what percentage of total owners that is? (open question, not just to rdjam)

It would be really interesting to know the following percentages:

1) Percentage out of 'HD optical disc households' that have BD only.
2) Percentage out of 'HD optical disc households' that have BD and HD DVD.
3) Percentage out of 'HD optical disc households' that have HD DVD only.

Even more interesting would be to track these since inception... but that is a pipe dream :)

BTW, the #1 people above won't be buying the HD DVD of 300... that is where this is relevant...

The Departed was 62:38 favoring Blu-ray. It seems like the sort of title that will do well on Blu-ray, perhaps with a similar demographic to Departed.

It is certainly a test of the interactive features of HD DVD and how important they are. On the other hand. the HD DVD version will be a combo, and HD DVD supporters are always complaining about combos, so that may be another factor.

Many HD DVD supporters see the combo as a bonus, hell, some see it as the savior of the format.

300 plays well with ps3 demographics. hd-dvd will be more expensive... wipeout!

Many HD DVD supporters see the combo as a bonus, hell, some see it as the savior of the format.


yes. demand increases with price...

From April 14 rdjam said (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10317339&&#post10317339)


Because, quite simply, it HAS caught up.

This is not all about the 1-day "buy" look at the last three weeks - which is what I have been drawing attention to in virtually every post.

...

However, the numbers for *this* week, which will be released on the 25th of April, will show both formats virtually equal (if not HD ahead).

But every week more that passes, HD DVD is pulling closer alongside BD - and I predict quite comfortably that by the end of May, there will be no looking back.

...

I don't ask anyone to agree - just bookmark this post and let's chat in 5 or 6 weeks.

6 weeks later Grubert said:


Okay, it's six weeks later.

Since that post went up, HD DVD has never sold more than BD (though week of April 22 was close). HD DVD has in no way, shape or form caught up, let alone pulled ahead. During the last 5 weeks BD has had between 58% and 71% market share. YTD continues to be 2:1 or more, and since-inception share is at an all-time-high 58%.

So the above prediction has not come true. At all.

Then Kosty said:

Give him a few weeks. Your gloating may seem hollow in a few weeks.

You may have to give him a couple weeks until the HD DVD player sales kick HD DVD movies up a few notches.

The Nielson/Videoscan sales numbers (first alert at that) may be lagging HD DVD player sales by a few weeks.

This weeks numbers are about the same as last weeks around a 60/40 split, which is still better than the average in the 1st quarter.


It will be more telling about 3-4 weeks from now to see if HD DVD player sales are driving HD DVD movie sales.


Now we are into July. HD DVD player prices are rock bottom.

Titles are being released with no competition from the BD studios.

I was just wondering, how much longer we have to wait for HD DVD to make its surge...?

[These are my guesses so please do not ask for backup.]

I think that Warners is in a state of flux. Clearly, WHV preferred HD DVD and did everything to try to tilt toward that format despite instructions from TW.

Then, they decided that both formats could co-exist, so they came forward with THD.

But they have put THD on the backburner now. That suggests that they may understand that there will only be one winner and that THD.

The release of Blood Diamond and 300 without the interactive features on Blu-ray is very important. It suggests that they may be realizing that Blu-ray is going to win. Of course it also may mean that they have figured out that the interactive features are not that important right now and getting the title out is more critical.

According to Bill Hunt, there was a lot of angst inside of Warners about Matrix. I doubt that we will see such an effort for HD DVD again.

Prediction: Warners will play it straight for a while and even make up some of the slights they have provided to Blu-ray (Troy, Batman Begins, Matrix for example).

Often it's the nuts and bolts issues of the business side that people refuse to understand. I suspect even the red supporters in Warner have to face reality at some point. Right now, the only hope left (outside of Warner tilting fully red) is the cheap players, and it is clear to me that the cheapest player will be an SOC+memory+flash+drive+popcorn logic.

HD DVD player prices are rock bottom.



What?? Who said that? I think they will drop below the magic $199 figure by Christmas. Of course the real magic number is either 149 or 99. That's when sales would take off. Right now both format's sales are miniscule!

From April 14 rdjam said (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10317339&&#post10317339)



6 weeks later Grubert said:



Then Kosty said:


Now we are into July. HD DVD player prices are rock bottom.

Titles are being released with no competition from the BD studios.

I was just wondering, how much longer we have to wait for HD DVD to make its surge...?


Just wait for the Holidays











(note I didn't say which year)

No - click the link below if there is any confusion. All that has been said is that most of the standalone BD players will not EVER be able to play the advanced interactive features that are "promised" for bluray when BD 1.1 and 1.2 are finally finished - features that HD DVD already handles. So these BD players will effectively be obsolete, not that they will "blow up" (although you never know ;) )

The problem is with your use of the word obsolete. All current blu-ray players will be able to play the audio and video of 100% of future and current blu-ray movies in a pristine manner. There may be a few features on a few future releases that current players will not recognize. These players will hardly be obsolete. When you say "All current blu-ray players will be able to play the audio and video of 100% of future and current blu-ray movies" you are incorrect, as current standalone BD players mostly cannot even play the TruHD and DTS HD tracks on current discs, let alone the advanced BDJ features that will come later - will they play the standard movie alone, sue they will. But that doesn't mean they are not obsolete.

Your bias and use of the extremely misleading (and false) term obsolete shows your ( and other HD DVD fans) true colors about this issue.I don't think the term "obsolete" is extreme at all, and the word has been used in relation to this issue by very credible publications.

The bias displayed by those on each side is perfectly clear to all. Should you apologise for your obvious BD bias, of course not. So what's wrong with my HD DVD bias?

Peace.

When you say "All current blu-ray players will be able to play the audio and video of 100% of future and current blu-ray movies" you are incorrect, as current standalone BD players mostly cannot even play the TruHD and DTS HD tracks on current discs, let alone the advanced BDJ features that will come later - will they play the standard movie alone, sue they will. But that doesn't mean they are not obsolete.

The bias displayed by those on each side is perfectly clear to all. Should you apologise for your obvious BD bias, of course not. So what's wrong with my HD DVD bias?

Peace.

So you are giving up on your sales show up the week after release?

Or are you still gather data on that?

I haven't seen the unit sales figures in awhile now...do we know how many disks are selling ?

The true meaning of obsolete will be clear if they ever release movies on TL51.

Then we will see HD DVD hardware that is truly obsolete.

ob·so·lete 1 a : no longer in use or no longer useful.

What?? Who said that? I think they will drop below the magic $199 figure by Christmas. Of course the real magic number is either 149 or 99.I love how this number changes every time we get good news about Blu-ray.

PS3 @ $599 giving a huge boost to BD sales? Well, $399 or $349 is the magic number!
Wait, now that a $499 BD player has been announced, we now think $299 is the true magic number!
HD DVD was outsold 2:1 in Q1, and there's a Chinese BD rumor? Well, of course we always believed $249 was the killer price point.
More BD players, and the numbers only get worse? The real magic number is either $149 or $99.

Reopend.

I love how this number changes every time we get good news about Blu-ray.

PS3 @ $599 giving a huge boost to BD sales? Well, $399 or $349 is the magic number!
Wait, now that a $499 BD player has been announced, we now think $299 is the true magic number!
HD DVD was outsold 2:1 in Q1, and there's a Chinese BD rumor? Well, of course we always believed $249 was the killer price point.
More BD players, and the numbers only get worse? The real magic number is either $149 or $99.
I love how everytime the numbers come out they are positive for Blu Ray. The quicker this thing is over the better and if HD DVD couldnt make a dent the last week, well as far as I am concerned its all over but the crying.

Were the top titles posted???? I cant find them. :confused:

I'm a little surprised that anyone would think this week's releases would bring a HD DVD lead.

Look at the Top 10 sellers for BD for this, or any week, and you'll see that big titles, whilst selling big quantities in Week 1, still carry on selling quite well for a number of weeks after that.

Would we have a 65:35 BD lead if it weren't for sales of recent (but not brand new) titles like 'Apocalypto', 'Ghost Rider', 'Bridge...' and ''POTC1&2'? Looking at those titles, clearly not.

If you only look at thie new releases, you're presuming these titles on sell in big quantities for 1 week, and that's very foolish thing to do indeed.

Any sort of HD DVd comeback (if it happens) will be at least a Summer-ling event. Meanwhile, if the lead can be cut on a weekly (or 'most weekly') basis, that'll be the best anyone should be looking for.

BD-supporting cries of "You should have won, look how many titles you had!" ignore the fact that one of the biggest selling 'new' titles was actually a re-release.

Steve W

I'm fairly new to this thread, and I have been trying to find out what the total units are for each of these formats over time (I searched briefly, but turned up nothing). More important to me than the percentage of the pie going to each format is the size of the pie.

If the market continues to grow at a certain percentage rate, and if each format more or less maintains its current percentage of the pie for an extended period of time, doesn't that mean they are both succeeding? In that scenario, if there's a large enough active, installed user base, why would the percentages for each format matter? If the pie gets large enough, each format will have potential customers that the studios would likely not ignore.

Hopefully, someone can enlighten me to what the month-to-month unit sales have been for each format. If they are both growing fairly equally for the past few months, it's hard to say one is dying while the other is thriving.

You can't ignore the fact that titles generally have their highest sales in the first week of release. So HD DVD not doing better last week is not good news. But I think the people here that express some kind of happiness about this are forgetting that the studios are partly looking at HD media as a way of recovering from their flattening DVD sales, and they were hoping to do that at least in part by reselling catalogue titles. If they can't sell catalogue titles, they may not bother with HD at all. After all, they know they'll sell lots of copies of POTC World's End and Spiderman 3 on DVD, so why bother with the time and effort of making a high quality HD release if it won't help sales anyway? That is bad for those of us who want HD. Without it we will be left with, at best, the mid-def 1280x720 downloads from Microsoft and others. So I was actually hoping the catalogue titles would sell a little better.

I know we only have a ratio, and not actual sales figures at this time, but if there was a noticeable jump in HD DVD sales from the release of the catalogue titles, I don't see anything powering an increase in BD sales last week, so I am speculating that these new titles generated rather few sales and volumes on both sides remained at levels similar to the preceeding weeks.

I love how this number changes every time we get good news about Blu-ray.

PS3 @ $599 giving a huge boost to BD sales? Well, $399 or $349 is the magic number!
Wait, now that a $499 BD player has been announced, we now think $299 is the true magic number!
HD DVD was outsold 2:1 in Q1, and there's a Chinese BD rumor? Well, of course we always believed $249 was the killer price point.
More BD players, and the numbers only get worse? The real magic number is either $149 or $99.

So true.