Soaring? Give it time for the price to set in. Nobody can judge the success of the price drop in 1 day.




Anecdotal evidence that means nothing. The magical price point for HD media players is either 199 or lower. HD DVD had prices at $299 for a while and it took the $100 promo to really get things moving. Most likely the same thing for Blu Ray.

Until I see some sales data, nobody can say they are "flying off the shelves."

Seriously, I'm more than welcome to discuss any of this with you, but leave the fanboy FUD at the door (in reference to the bold above.)


http://www.computerandvideogames.com/article.php?id=167543

http://www.itwire.com.au/content/view/13411/532/

http://www.psxextreme.com/ps3-news/1467.html

Ya, I responded to you when it was theforce who had made more than one reference to the movie sucking. I guess I lumped you two together. It happens.

...I will delete my response since it's apparently gotten you blu boys all riled up.
Gee thanks, you're such a class act. :rolleyes:

Ya, I responded to you when it was theforce who had made more than one reference to the movie sucking. I guess I lumped you two together. It happens.

For the record, this thread is about sales ratios and not how much a given movie "sucks". I will delete my response since it's apparently gotten you blu boys all riled up.

Thank you. I only brought it up in the context of sales ratios for bad movies.

We’ll see. 300 will sell well on BD because it fits right into the BD demographic. Still we should consider the fact that the HD DVD version is going to be the superior version so most format neutral buyers will get that version. Then there is the fact that there are fewer “mindless romps” available on HD DVD.

Don't forget that for the superior version people will have to pay the combo tax.

The "mutual survivability with 30% sales" argument isn't what happened in the last war. BetaMax both had an an installed base in the neighborhood of 5-10M decks when VHS pulled ahead, and Beta ended the 80s with an installed base ~25 million. But of course, the number of Betamax-only users by the early 90s was negligible - once one format "wins", the users on the other side (early adopters) revert or just become a niche. There's many reasons for this happening - most CE manufacturers only want to deal with one format, consumers only want to deal with one format, and in the end even the studios really only want one format.

Don't forget the retailers. ;)

I'm more interested in seeing if HD can maintain 65/35 next week or even narrow the gap further.

I'm more interested in seeing if HD can maintain 65/35 next week or even narrow the gap further.

Blood Diamond is a major release, and it did get some press with the new features. So it could happen.

Well, unless you ask someone who thinks it would reflect in the following week. If that is the case then this round of numbers will reflect the catalog flood from Universal.

PS. It isn't narrowing the gap until it is greater than 50%.

This is a fallacious debate.

As of March 18:

- Mutiny on the Bounty had sold 643 copies on HD DVD.

- None of the pre-1970 HD DVD titles had sold 3,000 copies.

Thanks for the figures.

Kind of proves the point.

Additionally, look at those recently announced titles. Bergman's 'The Seventh Seal' on BD in the UK only? If it had to sell much over 1,000 to break even, Tartan UK would be risking going bust! I doubt they sold too many more than 1,000 with the last SD DVD release.

Steve W

The "mutual survivability with 30% sales" argument isn't what happened in the last war. BetaMax both had an an installed base in the neighborhood of 5-10M decks when VHS pulled ahead, and Beta ended the 80s with an installed base ~25 million. But of course, the number of Betamax-only users by the early 90s was negligible - once one format "wins", the users on the other side (early adopters) revert or just become a niche. There's many reasons for this happening - most CE manufacturers only want to deal with one format, consumers only want to deal with one format, and in the end even the studios really only want one format.

Of course, there's a major difference here.

VHS tapes wouldn't play in a BETAMAX deck, and vice versa.

Everyone take a break for 5 minutes and check out the price of players.

HD DVD from $499 at launch to $200 now - in less than a year.

BD players from $1,000 at launch to $400 now - in less than a year.

For this war not to be a draw, we need a winner before the dual-format player prices hit $200. Because at that price no-one interested in high def will buy a single-format deck - not if you got one free with a sack of potatoes.

Steve W

Great job!!!
But why do more HD-DVD people like the Ant Bully, and more BR people like Norbit?
Don't know about Norbit, but Ant Bully sold 499 disks for HD in 2006, and 245 for BD in 2006. 2007 numbers were 214 HD and 201 BD. Numbers this small is not meaningful, and IMO the movie itself was terrible, content-wise certainly the worst animation movie I've seen for a long time. That explains why people stayed away from this disk.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/564
Sony's april release of nielsen numbers up to mar18 : http://www.thedigitalbits.com/files/sonyhdreport031807.zip

Don't know about Norbit, but Ant Bully sold 499 disks for HD in 2006, and 245 for BD in 2006. 2007 numbers were 214 HD and 201 BD. Numbers this small is not meaningful, and IMO the movie itself was terrible, content-wise certainly the worst animation movie I've seen for a long time. That explains why people stayed away from this disk.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/564
Sony's april release of nielsen numbers up to mar18 : http://www.thedigitalbits.com/files/sonyhdreport031807.zip

I purchased Open Season, Ice Age the Meltdown, and Chicken Little. Even I couldn't justify Ant Bully (or The Wild for that matter).

IMHO both were very weak movies and barely worth a rental.

HD DVD from $499 at launch to $200 now - in less than a year.

Let's make sure all our facts are right here. HD DVD players launched from 499 to 999. The XA1 had a higher price tag attached to it.

Your missing my point. I never said catalog stuff sold like crazy, I am saying high sales does not mean it was a fantastic award winning movie.

But your point is obvious or else Ozu or Satyajit-Ray would be names known beyond the pages of Film Comment. So there is no debate.

What is debatable, is that HD DVD purchasers en masse somehow have more refined aesthetic sensibilities. I guess if it makes you feel better, feel free to be sanctimonious.

ted

For this war not to be a draw, we need a winner before the dual-format player prices hit $200. Because at that price no-one interested in high def will buy a single-format deck - not if you got one free with a sack of potatoes.

Steve W
And if everyone has a dual format player, then there's no need for two formats. Anyway you slice it, only one format is going to come out of this war alive... there's no room or need for two formats. At this point it very much looks like BR will be the one left standing.

And if everyone has a dual format player, then there's no need for two formats. Anyway you slice it, only one format is going to come out of this war alive... there's no room or need for two formats. At this point it very much looks like BR will be the one left standing.

If everyone has a dual format player, disk cost and disk cost alone will determine which format is produced. Just look at all the people who jump at saving just $1 in this forum. They will flock to whatever site or B&M store offers the slightest savings. Everyone, besides the first 100,000 buyers, are most likely interested in price alone.

But your point is obvious or else Ozu or Satyajit-Ray would be names known beyond the pages of Film Comment. So there is no debate.

What is debatable, is that HD DVD purchasers en masse somehow have more refined aesthetic sensibilities. I guess if it makes you feel better, feel free to be sanctimonious.

ted

My readings of the Videoscan numbers do indicate a slight bias toward what I would call "quality" on the part of HD DVD owners.

It is however slight and not enough to get a studio interested. We will not see much from Bergman on HDM, no, not even David Lean for that matter. The overall superior numbers for Blu-ray overwhelm this bias for the most part. Universal is not going to be shipping the Preston Sturgess comedies on HD DVD (although they recently did on DVD) because they know there is no market.

I suspect the "quality bias" reflects the adoption paths of both formats so far, with the earliest adopters embracing Blu-ray after Sony's disatrous launch, followed by larger numbers for the PS3.

The critical point is that nobody is going to be seeing classics, art house entries, or cult favorites on HDM until the format war has closed and adoption increases.

Anyway you slice it, only one format is going to come out of this war alive... there's no room or need for two formats.

So does that include SD? When you go to the store they won't have an SD, HD-DVD, and BR section? If a studio can release a movie in SD, a bunch of different VOD, ipod, and other formats, why can't they release them in two more?

I think that when studios quit releasing movies for a certain format, some studios over seas will get increased sales and some guy in his garage with a PC and a burner will make a bundle.

So does that include SD? When you go to the store they won't have an SD, HD-DVD, and BR section? If a studio can release a movie in SD, a bunch of different VOD, ipod, and other formats, why can't they release them in two more?

I think that when studios quit releasing movies for a certain format, some studios over seas will get increased sales and some guy in his garage with a PC and a burner will make a bundle.

The formats you mention have somewhat different "use cases" For example, VOD and IPOD are fundmentally different from DVD because of how people use them.

In the case of Blu-ray and HD DVD, the use cases are indistinguishable to the average consumer. In fact, most of the possible differences were deliberately engineered out of these formats before launch.

The general observation over the last 100 years of AV formats is that formats that have different use cases can survive, but formats with the same use cases get narrowed down to a single choice.

My contention is that there is only room for one of Blu-ray/HD DVD, that customers are very clear on this, and they are now circling waiting for one to emerge victorious. [At least my friends are "circiling". :)]

So does that include SD? When you go to the store they won't have an SD, HD-DVD, and BR section? If a studio can release a movie in SD, a bunch of different VOD, ipod, and other formats, why can't they release them in two more?

I think that when studios quit releasing movies for a certain format, some studios over seas will get increased sales and some guy in his garage with a PC and a burner will make a bundle.

Why would a person buy two high definition DVD players?

That is the alternative to one format.

Being able to buy one player that will play all the high def movies will increase consumer confidence and increase adoption.

Why would a person buy two high definition DVD players?

That is the alternative to one format.

Being able to buy one player that will play all the high def movies will increase consumer confidence and increase adoption.

Why are there Macs and Windows PCs? Why on earth would someone use Linux?
Why are there memory sticks, compact flash, SD, microSD and other types of memory cards? Why won't that Xbox version of SSX play on a PS2? Camcorders that use DV tapes, C-VHS, miniDVD, hard drives, why can't they just use the same format!

I do not have all the answers. I just believe that both formats along with about a dozen more will survive.

Why are there Macs and Windows PCs? Why on earth would someone use Linux?
Why are there memory sticks, compact flash, SD, microSD and other types of memory cards? Camcorders that use DV tapes, C-VHS, miniDVD, hard drives, why can't they just use the same format!

I do not have all the answers. I just believe that both formats along with about a dozen more will survive.

We are talking about movie players. All they do is play movies, if you can't get a movie then what is the point?

If you buy a mac or a pc you can surf the internet and check your email, if some app doesn't work you can get an alternative to it that works on your system. If a movie isn't released on one format it is unavailable on that format, do you see how that is different?

We are talking about movie players. All they do is play movies, if you can't get a movie then what is the point?

If you buy a mac or a pc you can surf the internet and check your email, if some app doesn't work you can get an alternative to it that works on your system. If a movie isn't released on one format it is unavailable on that format, do you see how that is different?
So, you think all programs, functions, uses on a mac are also available on PCs?
I don't think so. The anaogy is quite goos really.
J

So, you think all programs, functions, uses on a mac are also available on PCs?
I don't think so. The anaogy is quite goos really.
J

No its not, because I can install vista on a mac and run anything that will run on a pc.

What are you going to install on your HD DVD player to make high def movies from Disney play?

Nothing.

No its not, because I can install vista on a mac and run anything that will run on a pc.

What are you going to install on your HD DVD player to make high def movies from Disney play?

Nothing.
You still don't get it, or are pretending not to...
You cannot load a PC with programs that will run certain lab equipement. You must use a Mac to operate this equipement. Our Low Cytometer and Sequence Detector are perfect example. Hook a PC up to it, nothing-the programs don't exist for PCs, you must use a Mac.
J

You still don't get it, or are pretending not to...
You cannot load a PC with programs that will run certain lab equipement. You must use a Mac to operate this equipement. Our Low Cytometer and Sequence Detector are perfect example. Hook a PC up to it, nothing-the programs don't exist for PCs, you must use a Mac.
J

Whoa, and I thought we were using an analogy about general use and un-needed adoption of two players.

For someone who doesn't understand that a movie player plays movies and a computer has many many uses you sure do use some fancy words.

But your point is obvious or else Ozu or Satyajit-Ray would be names known beyond the pages of Film Comment. So there is no debate.

What is debatable, is that HD DVD purchasers en masse somehow have more refined aesthetic sensibilities. I guess if it makes you feel better, feel free to be sanctimonious.

ted

Ted, you need to read more buddy, I own all the check your bain at the door movies, they just happen to all be on BD :D

It's pretty much a fact what the target demographic is of the PS3, to deny otherwise is ignorant at best. It is what it is, it sells and makes tons of $, and studios know who buys product of this nature, seems I hit a nerve?

Let's make sure all our facts are right here. HD DVD players launched from 499 to 999. The XA1 had a higher price tag attached to it.
Let me bask in the irony for a moment.......












Ok done. If you want to criticize someone for not getting the facts right, it helps if your own facts are actually correct. MSRP on the HD-XA1 was $799. :D

I will buy the 5000-10000 numbers as a breakeven since these comport with what I have heard.

Now look at the Videoscan numbers and see how many titles actually make this. Many titles and especially catalog titles do not.

Isn't a catalog title, by definition, an older movie that is in the catalog and will be available for the long term? If so, why would anyone expect a catalog title to sell en masse when there are only a few hundred thousand players out there?

Rather than their sales during release week, I see the catalog as being more valuable as player sales increase. There just is not a large percentage of the population that NEEDS to see The Sting in HD today. Maybe come Christmas, it will be under the tree, but the excitement on release day for a title like that just won't be widespread.

It remains to be seen if catalog titles will ever be big in HD, but there's no doubt that their existance is of importance to many potential buyers.

Also, as was mentioned here earlier, day-and-date HD sales are really just replacing SD DVD sales. I'd imagine studios have a hard time getting excited about 10,000 HD media titles that are sold in place of their SD releases.

This is why I don't see the "war" ending any time soon. There's not even much incentive for studios UNLESS they can resell their catalogs, since new movie sales are chugging along in SD just fine.

The "mutual survivability with 30% sales" argument isn't what happened in the last war. BetaMax both had an an installed base in the neighborhood of 5-10M decks when VHS pulled ahead, and Beta ended the 80s with an installed base ~25 million. But of course, the number of Betamax-only users by the early 90s was negligible - once one format "wins", the users on the other side (early adopters) revert or just become a niche. There's many reasons for this happening - most CE manufacturers only want to deal with one format, consumers only want to deal with one format, and in the end even the studios really only want one format.

During the last war, recording was a bigger deal than prerecorded movies. The longer tapes were a major selling point for VHS. And how much were prerecorded tapes for purchase during the early years of the war? Owning and/or renting movies was just not something that people were used to or generations grew up with. As I see it, the VHS/Betamax war has little to no relevance in analyzing the current situation between BD and HD-DVD.

Link? How do you know this? Not being a wise guy but would very much like to read this info.

No problem. The numbers came from Ken Graffeo, executive vice president of High Definition Strategic Marketing for Universal Studios and co-president of the HD DVD Promotional Group, "Graffeo claimed that only 30 percent of PS3s in the US are connected to an HDTV. "


Link (http://www.bit-tech.net/news/2007/06/21/hd_dvd_shrugs_off_blockbuster_move/1)


Now obviously he has a bias, but if the statement were totally incorrect I’d imagine that Sony would’ve let us all know by now.

fist of south.

the only way 300 on hd-dvd will outsell 300 on bluray is if warner only made 20.000 copies on bluray and around 50.000 copies for hd-dvd. besides people who bought the hd-dvd player arent intrested in games. so i dont think the game included in 300, would do much good. because a lot of people on this forum are saying, that people who bought the ps3 only, buy it for games only, so why would warner have included a game on the hd-dvd version???? is it maybe those people are talking out of their.............. :)



Or is it maybe those people, unlike some on these boards, do a little research before they open their mouth :

Link (http://dvd.monstersandcritics.com/news/article_1314413.php)

“With the HD DVD Combo, experience the entire film with “blue screen” picture-in-picture running throughout the feature and special commentary by Zack Snyder, plus an exclusive strategy game “Vengeance and Valor.”

This is a fallacious debate.

As of March 18:

- Mutiny on the Bounty had sold 643 copies on HD DVD.

- None of the pre-1970 HD DVD titles had sold 3,000 copies.Thanks for the info. I didn't realize I was in such a small group. I bought MotB and really enjoyed it.

Here is what I think happened. Warner supported HD DVD more early on and released some classic titles. Warner realized that they didn't sell well and hasn't continued releasing classics on HD DVD at the pace they were and also haven't released most of them on Blu-ray. Some people have taken this to mean that HD DVD as a format is the format of classics like they got early on and will get more classics in the future. Which I think ignores what happened when these classics were released and that if Warner really does catch up to neutrality, both formats will have the currently released classics from them. Universal has been digging deeper in their catalog, but doesn't seem like they are releasing a lot of classics either. I don't have the numbers for Spartacus, but would be surprised if it sold many.

--Darin

One MotB is worth 6 PotC

Thanks for the info. I didn't realize I was in such a small group. I bought MotB and really enjoyed it.

Here is what I think happened. Warner supported HD DVD more early on and released some classic titles. Warner realized that they didn't sell well and hasn't continued releasing classics on HD DVD at the pace they were and also haven't released most of them on Blu-ray. Some people have taken this to mean that HD DVD as a format is the format of classics like they got early on and will get more classics in the future. Which I think ignores what happened when these classics were released and that if Warner really does catch up to neutrality, both formats will have the currently released classics from them. Universal has been digging deeper in their catalog, but doesn't seem like they are releasing a lot of classics either. I don't have the numbers for Spartacus, but would be surprised if it sold many.

--Darin

Spartacus sold 2862 on HD DVD through the middle of March. It is supposedly a very poor disk (I haven't seen it) but the sales number is still well below any acceptable definition of reasonable. I doubt that a superb disk of the title would have done much better.

I think you are partly right but I also think that the HD DVD crowd is a bit more atuned to the classics than Blu-ray owners, but only a bit and not enough to influence a programmer.

Warners is very proud of the work it does on restoring and releasing classic films. They also have fully 1/3 of the films on the AFI Best 100 list.

George Feltenstein and his team are excellent. Listening to them, they are also very pro-HD DVD, but I suspect that the numbers are erasing that bias. But they know film. They also know that they cannot release many classics right now.

This is killing me. Fox just released The Sand Pebbles in a gorgeous new DVD, but no Blu-ray. Universal released Flower Drum Song in a terrific DVD last year. I might have bought HD DVD just to get it on HD DVD (but it isn't there of course) together with a great Spartacus.

Right now, if you want to see classic films in hd, try cable, especially HDNet Movies. HDM is for action flicks. Or hope for the end of the format war.

One MotB is worth 6 PotC

I wouldnt want or watch mutiny on the bounty unless the made me. So that is your opinion and this is mine. Now back to the topic at hand.

One MotB is worth 6 PotCThat might be the kind of math that has gotten Universal to think that they can determine the format winner here. :)

Sorry, that was too easy. Universal knows that they would like to have more titles like PotC to sell. Obviously, for the business side sales are what matter and if one format got all the titles that would sell like PotC and one got all the titles that would sell like MotB, the one with the MotB type titles wouldn't sell nearly as many players (although they would have some happy customers, there wouldn't be a lot of them by comparison).

--Darin

That 643 number for Mutiny is pathetic. And sad.

That 643 number for Mutiny is pathetic. And sad.

And now we see why Sony is in no hurry to release Lawrence.

Imagine: you have to do a new transfer from best possible elements, do an encode without EE/DNR etc. etc., have Robert Harris fly in to look at it, put in all of the special features, multiple BD50, TrueHD and PCM sound, and for what: something in the 643 range!

Spartacus sold 2862 on HD DVD through the middle of March. It is supposedly a very poor disk (I haven't seen it) but the sales number is still well below any acceptable definition of reasonable. I doubt that a superb disk of the title would have done much better.

I think you are partly right but I also think that the HD DVD crowd is a bit more atuned to the classics than Blu-ray owners, but only a bit and not enough to influence a programmer.

Warners is very proud of the work it does on restoring and releasing classic films. They also have fully 1/3 of the films on the AFI Best 100 list.

George Feltenstein and his team are excellent. Listening to them, they are also very pro-HD DVD, but I suspect that the numbers are erasing that bias. But they know film. They also know that they cannot release many classics right now.

This is killing me. Fox just released The Sand Pebbles in a gorgeous new DVD, but no Blu-ray. Universal released Flower Drum Song in a terrific DVD last year. I might have bought HD DVD just to get it on HD DVD (but it isn't there of course) together with a great Spartacus.

Right now, if you want to see classic films in hd, try cable, especially HDNet Movies. HDM is for action flicks. Or hope for the end of the format war.

Maybe the problem is that the format currently in the lead in disc sales has releases aimed squarely at the video game buying crowd.

Ted, you need to read more buddy, I own all the check your bain at the door movies, they just happen to all be on BD :D

It's pretty much a fact what the target demographic is of the PS3, to deny otherwise is ignorant at best. It is what it is, it sells and makes tons of $, and studios know who buys product of this nature, seems I hit a nerve?


Urza, I've read your stuff - you've your biases but generally speaking you adopt a sane stance. I just never thought a reasoning fellow such as you would adopt such a framework. Yes there is a PS3 demographic but to assume that somehow HD-DVD has a lock on taste is an assumption of what kind of superiority? Better consumers, better aesthetic judgement? Better hardware smarts? You tell me, you're passing these opinions. Perhaps there *is* something in the idea that HD-DVD buyers bought in because of the price - does that make them cheap, or astute shoppers?

ted

Maybe the problem is that the format currently in the lead in disc sales has releases aimed squarely at the video game buying crowd.

As I said, HD DVD only does VERY MARGINALLY better with classics than Blu-ray, considering the base-line averages of the two formats. It is not good for either format.

There have been very few classic films released on both formats in 2007 as a comparison point. One that may count is Bullitt, which did 430 copies on Blu-ray and 508 on HD DVD, both released on 2/27/2007. As you see, slightly better for HD DVD (especially considering the 60:40 split in favor of Blu-ray we see on new titles like The Departed and Babel), but still nothing to write home about. No one will get excited about 508 copies of anything!

It is also very clear why we have not seen the release of The Thomas Crown Affair, which Warners also has prepared for HDM. With 430+508 copies for Bullitt, Crown will be held up a very long time. [Catch them both on HDNet Movies.]

Yes, I do attribute the slight HD DVD bias toward the classics to the "PS3 effect", of course.

However, the "video game" orientation of Blu-ray is not the "problem", as you say. The problem is overall adoption of HDM which is being held up because of the format war. We need to move beyond the early adopters who supported HD DVD and also the gamer early adopters who supported the PS3.

This may not happen until there is a single format to present to the customer.

Urza, I've read your stuff - you've your biases but generally speaking you adopt a sane stance. I just never thought a reasoning fellow such as you would adopt such a framework. Yes there is a PS3 demographic but to assume that somehow HD-DVD has a lock on taste is an assumption of what kind of superiority? Better consumers, better aesthetic judgement? Better hardware smarts? You tell me, you're passing these opinions. Perhaps there *is* something in the idea that HD-DVD buyers bought in because of the price - does that make them cheap, or astute shoppers?

ted

Nobody has a lock on taste, I am just saying look at what is being pushed by the Studios. Are they wrong? They know who they are catering to. Saw,Ghost Rider, Into the Blue, Click, who do you think watches those movies? Again, its business sense, young adults and teens spend the most money on movies, catalogs dont make as much.

And now we see why Sony is in no hurry to release Lawrence.

Imagine: you have to do a new transfer from best possible elements, do an encode without EE/DNR etc. etc., have Robert Harris fly in to look at it, put in all of the special features, multiple BD50, TrueHD and PCM sound, and for what: something in the 643 range!

I would really prefer not to imagine that scenario if you don't mind! :(

That would obviously not encourage additional work and expense to bring us other classics. I really don't own too many titles on either of the new formats (I am mostly renting this time around as I learned that I rarely re-watch the nearly 500 DVD's that I own) but several that I do own are classics: Casablanca, Grand Prix, The Searchers and I will probably buy Rio Bravo. I have seen Mutiny on the Bounty via Netlix and enjoyed it as well. I will be greatly disappointed if the studios do not put effort in to giving us some more classics like these in HD. Very sad to know that they apparently do not sell well. At least so far. Hopefully this will change.

http://www.computerandvideogames.com/article.php?id=167543

http://www.itwire.com.au/content/view/13411/532/

http://www.psxextreme.com/ps3-news/1467.html
Just because you have 3, solid anecdotes doesn't mean your evidence is non-anecdotal. Maybe if you could provide the receipts for every, single register that rang up a PS3 in the recent months, you might have something. Until then...

:D

Nice work!

The "mutual survivability with 30% sales" argument isn't what happened in the last war. BetaMax both had an an installed base in the neighborhood of 5-10M decks when VHS pulled ahead, and Beta ended the 80s with an installed base ~25 million. But of course, the number of Betamax-only users by the early 90s was negligible - once one format "wins", the users on the other side (early adopters) revert or just become a niche. There's many reasons for this happening - most CE manufacturers only want to deal with one format, consumers only want to deal with one format, and in the end even the studios really only want one format.
I like your logic, but as I've said before, one, solid difference I see is that the medium has almost exactly the same physical dimensions. Making a combo, Beta/VHS player back then would have taken some serious doing. If manufacturers can come up with reasonable priced combo units AND Universal refuses to go neutral out of spite...

Of course, there's a major difference here.

VHS tapes wouldn't play in a BETAMAX deck, and vice versa.

Everyone take a break for 5 minutes and check out the price of players.

HD DVD from $499 at launch to $200 now - in less than a year.

BD players from $1,000 at launch to $400 now - in less than a year.

For this war not to be a draw, we need a winner before the dual-format player prices hit $200. Because at that price no-one interested in high def will buy a single-format deck - not if you got one free with a sack of potatoes.

Steve W
Should've read down further to this post.

Agreed. Look how many formats a standard DVD player can handle these days.

And if everyone has a dual format player, then there's no need for two formats. Anyway you slice it, only one format is going to come out of this war alive... there's no room or need for two formats. At this point it very much looks like BR will be the one left standing.
Again, we'll still need two formats if Universal remains stubborn and it doesn't hurt them much to do so.

And now we see why Sony is in no hurry to release Lawrence.

Imagine: you have to do a new transfer from best possible elements, do an encode without EE/DNR etc. etc., have Robert Harris fly in to look at it, put in all of the special features, multiple BD50, TrueHD and PCM sound, and for what: something in the 643 range!

There is a flaw or two in this argument.

Firstly, it doesn't really matter if the BD sells just 700 copies. Sooner or later, one high definition format will taker off - be it BD, HD DVD, downloads, or whatever. A digital HD master created today will look just as good in 100 years - those '0's and '1's don't deteriorate. Only selling 700 BDs won't mean the money has been wasted - just invested for the future.

Two, TOO LATE! A high def version of 'Lawrence...' has already been shown on satellite TV in the UK. This brings in the added point, that you only need a few dozen TV companies across the world to pay for a copy, and you've soon got your money back, irrespective of how many copies it sells on disc.

Steve W

Remind me again how many Disney/Pixar movies are available on Blu-Ray? Cars? Nope. Toy Story? Nope. Lady and the Tramp? Nope. Lion King? Nope. Any other Disney/Pixar classics? Nope. The only thing painfully obvious is that "traditional" Disney and Pixar films are not available in Hi Def, period. Pick whatever format you like, you STILL can't get any of these movies. Except for that ONE lone title that's announced for sometime in the middle of 2008 maybe.

Disney movies are coming to XBOX live in HD

Disney movies are coming to XBOX live in HD

Space aliens are landing in Anaheim next Tuesday.

Disney movies are coming to XBOX live in HD

Disney movies are available via VOD in HD on my local cable system.

Disney movies are available in HD via pay cable channels as well.

Nothing really new here and hardly a surprise. Disney movies are available (not in HD) on iTunes.

Just like when Lionsgate titles showed up on XBL, it didn't actually herald a change for this particular media issue.

We are talking about movie players. All they do is play movies, if you can't get a movie then what is the point?

If you buy a mac or a pc you can surf the internet and check your email, if some app doesn't work you can get an alternative to it that works on your system. If a movie isn't released on one format it is unavailable on that format, do you see how that is different?

They don't jsut play movies...tv shows..music etc.. the point is the all do the same thing

Yep both mac and pc can access internet..both can run a word processor..both can display a picture..... some will argue 1 does something better and vise versa but they do the same thing and have different software companys support them and some that support both.

You still don't get it, or are pretending not to...
You cannot load a PC with programs that will run certain lab equipement. You must use a Mac to operate this equipement. Our Low Cytometer and Sequence Detector are perfect example. Hook a PC up to it, nothing-the programs don't exist for PCs, you must use a Mac.
J


Just because a pc doesn't hook to your low cytrometer...doesn't mean it can't be programed to..but there has to be a market big enought to support another user or whats the point.

During the last war, recording was a bigger deal than prerecorded movies. The longer tapes were a major selling point for VHS. And how much were prerecorded tapes for purchase during the early years of the war? Owning and/or renting movies was just not something that people were used to or generations grew up with. As I see it, the VHS/Betamax war has little to no relevance in analyzing the current situation between BD and HD-DVD.

I remeber what a big deal is was to be able to afford Beverly Hills Cop and Top Gun when they came out and I think it was at $29.99 and Top Gun had a Diet Pepsi comercial at the start to pay for part of it...otherwise VHS movies were $70-$90 durring that time span.

Spartacus sold 2862 on HD DVD through the middle of March.
Just out of curiousity, anyone know what "Grand Prix" sold on HD? This truly was an amazing conversion.

Just out of curiousity, anyone know what "Grand Prix" sold on HD? This truly was an amazing conversion.

2177 through mid-March.

2177 through mid-March.
More people need to know how great this disc is... :) It should be a standard addition to every HD/BD deck.

There is a flaw or two in this argument.

Two, TOO LATE! A high def version of 'Lawrence...' has already been shown on satellite TV in the UK. This brings in the added point, that you only need a few dozen TV companies across the world to pay for a copy, and you've soon got your money back, irrespective of how many copies it sells on disc.

Steve W

People who have seen existing HD of Lawrence say that it is unacceptable. I haven't seen it.

The studios (Sony in particular) made a lot of masters for several years in anticipation of HDM, only to find that the masters are not good enough for market standards.

We are very demanding customers. :)

People who have seen existing HD of Lawrence say that it is unacceptable. I haven't seen it.

I've seen the HD version that was available on Comcast On Demand... probably not the ideal viewing experience since it is compressed because of bandwidth issues and also cropped to 16x9.

Still, from what I saw (and the cropping was so bad I only sampled it), it wasn't great. That's a title I'd definitely want to see them get perfect right out of the gate. I think it needs some work still.

I have read that DVD Empire updates their sales ratio on Tuesdays. Looks like I am the first to post on this sales ratio. Wonder if Nielsen will show the same ratios. And this 2 weeks after the HD DVD release advantage .... so much for the "Look at the release advantage and HD DVD did nothing" we have heard for 2 weeks. Looks like there is a delay from release to reporting ... probably also true of Nielsen data.

Percentage of total
Hi-Def sales:

Format: Blu-Ray HD-DVD
Week: 53.87% 46.13%
Month: 57.25% 42.75%
Year: 61.90% 38.10%

And this 2 weeks after the HD DVD release advantage .... there is a delay.There might be a delay on DVD Empire, but HD DVD had 4 new releases this week and Blu-ray had none. If there was a delay by Nielsen count like rdjam was pushing, then why do the numbers for things like The Matrix indicate their best showing being the first week they are out? Other than Planet Earth around the time that Discovery showed it again, can you name any titles where the first week wasn't their best week by Nielsen?

--Darin

I have read that DVD Empire updates their sales ratio on Tuesdays. Looks like I am the first to post on this sales ratio. Wonder if Nielsen will show the same ratios. And this 2 weeks after the HD DVD release advantage .... so much for the "Look at the release advantage and HD DVD did nothing" we have heard for 2 weeks. Looks like there is a delay from release to reporting ... probably also true of Nielsen data.

Percentage of total
Hi-Def sales:

Format: Blu-Ray HD-DVD
Week: 53.87% 46.13%
Month: 57.25% 42.75%
Year: 61.90% 38.10%

DVD Empire's stats tend to lean towards HD DVD a lot more than Neilsen's data. The recent 70/30 Nielsen week showed a 55/45 or something like that on DVD Empire.

There might be a delay on DVD Empire, but HD DVD had 4 new releases this week and Blu-ray had none. If there was a delay by Nielsen count like rdjam was pushing, then why do the numbers for things like The Matrix indicate their best showing being the first week they are out? Other than Planet Earth around the time that Discovery showed it again, can you name any titles where the first week wasn't their best week by Nielsen?

--Darin

I don't know about Nielsen but if your conjecture is true, that there is no lag in Nielsen, then perhaps Nielsen will not show a switch from 65/35 to 54/46. If (or when) DVD Empire and Nielsen track in similar ratios, then the conjecture may be false.

I have read that DVD Empire updates their sales ratio on Tuesdays. Looks like I am the first to post on this sales ratio. Wonder if Nielsen will show the same ratios. And this 2 weeks after the HD DVD release advantage .... so much for the "Look at the release advantage and HD DVD did nothing" we have heard for 2 weeks. Looks like there is a delay from release to reporting ... probably also true of Nielsen data.

Percentage of total
Hi-Def sales:

Format: Blu-Ray HD-DVD
Week: 53.87% 46.13%
Month: 57.25% 42.75%
Year: 61.90% 38.10%

Since they only track their own sales I wouldn't say that this information is all that telling. While I think that it is possible that there is a chance that the % gap will narrow a bit I don't know that we can necessarily attribute it to a lag in sales reporting unless you have actual information that says sales from certain sources are beeing regularly reported late.

DVD Empire's stats tend to lean towards HD DVD a lot more than Neilsen's data. The recent 70/30 Nielsen week showed a 55/45 or something like that on DVD Empire.

That makes no sense. Who does Nielsen poll? Who provides data to Nielsen and who does not?

That makes no sense. Who does Nielsen poll? Who provides data to Nielsen and who does not?

The Nieslen rankings include Amazon and other retailers...it does not include Walmart though...

you need to compare the Nielsen percentages on the first page of this thread against the DVD empire numbers to see the differences...

the numbers are fairly close, but the percentage often favor HD DVD by several points...

The Nieslen rankings include Amazon and other retailers...it does not include Walmart though...

you need to compare the Nielsen percentages on the first page of this thread against the DVD empire numbers to see the differences...

the numbers are fairly close, but the percentage often favor HD DVD by several points...

Wallmart is J6P ... good grief. Nielsen is missing most of the market. (DVD, BR, HD DVD ... players and disks)

That makes no sense. Who does Nielsen poll? Who provides data to Nielsen and who does not?

Nielson gets most of their data from B&M stores if I am not mistaken. Wal-Mart being teh big hold out there (they don't provide info). They also dont get data from Amazon or most other online retailers either (although as I said I may be incorrect). Since most of us with larger collections tend to buy online I take the Nielson #s as a whole with a grain of salt although I do think that BD is ahead in the game (and they should be with 5x (at least) the player options out there and more exclusive studios). They also poll random people as well if I recall correctly

They also dont get data from Amazon or most other online retailers either (although as I said I may be incorrect).


If true the Nielsen ratings are worthless. I have purchased 33 movies online from 3 sources (actually none from DVD Empire either) and only 2 from B&M stores. With so weak information, Nielsen data can be easily skewed, just like Amazon on buy days when the charts flip around like crazy.

Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon.

Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon.

Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon.

Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon.

Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon.

Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon.

Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon.

Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon.

Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon.

Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon.

Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon.

Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon.

Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon.

Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon.

Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon.

Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon.

Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon.

Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon. Nielsen includes amazon.

Was that really necessary when just one person doesn't "get it"? :rolleyes:

Was that really necessary when just one person doesn't "get it"? :rolleyes:

Considering I've clarified this a dozen times in the past, I think it was. ;)

do neilsen numbers include sales made on Amazon? :D

Are you saying that Nielsen includes amazon?

More seriously, though, it is absolutely ridiculous to see people questioning nielsen/videoscan. They are THE current standard for sales data. Especially when they could have seen this same point of debate quite a few times in the last couple hundred pages. :)

Are you saying that Nielsen includes amazon?

More seriously, though, it is absolutely ridiculous to see people questioning nielsen/videoscan. They are THE current standard for sales data. Especially when they could have seen this same point of debate quite a few times in the last couple hundred pages. :)


Nielsen data is flawed without WalMart in my opinion. If they also do not include some sources of cheap online sales then it is flawed even further. Look at this forum and how people flock to $0.50 savings on a disk. People will absolutely buy the cheapest price and some will go so far as to open a credit card to save a few more dollars.

WalMart has been the KING of low prices and when their data is excluded, the whole polling of VideoScan is flawed.

DVD Empire, Buy.com, WarnerHome and I am sure others ....

Oh buy the way, the only 3 disks I have purchased from B&M to date. 1 from BestBuy and 2 from WalMart.

This has been debated countless times within this thread, please feel free to reread this entire thread for more info. Until then, Nielen/VideoScan sales numbers are the best available and they are the numbers the big players use.

Nielsen data is flawed without WalMart in my opinion. If they also do not include some sources of cheap online sales then it is flawed even further. Look at this forum and how people flock to $0.50 savings on a disk. People will absolutely buy the cheapest price and some will go so far as to open a credit card to save a few more dollars.

WalMart has been the KING of low prices and when their data is excluded, the whole polling of VideoScan is flawed.

DVD Empire, Buy.com, WarnerHome and I am sure others ....

Oh buy the way, the only 3 disks I have purchased from B&M to date. 1 from BestBuy and 2 from WalMart.

Nielson's not 100% inclusive - But it's by far the most extensive, largest sample we have available.

Wallmart is J6P ... good grief. Nielsen is missing most of the market. (DVD, BR, HD DVD ... players and disks)

Walmart hasn't had any HDM discs for sale until recently, but yeah, Walmart is going to play a huge role the rest of the year in disc sales (let alone player sales). Combo discs @ walmart are a bit cheaper than the $10 premiums they command at Circuit Best USA.

I don't know about Nielsen but if your conjecture is true, that there is no lag in Nielsen, then perhaps Nielsen will not show a switch from 65/35 to 54/46. If (or when) DVD Empire and Nielsen track in similar ratios, then the conjecture may be false.Even if it went to 54/46 it could be because HD DVD had 4 new releases this week and Blu-ray had none, or for last week that HD DVD had Blood Diamond. We need to look at the numbers for the individual titles when we can get them.

--Darin

Nielsen data is flawed without WalMart in my opinion. If they also do not include some sources of cheap online sales then it is flawed even further. Look at this forum and how people flock to $0.50 savings on a disk. People will absolutely buy the cheapest price and some will go so far as to open a credit card to save a few more dollars.

WalMart has been the KING of low prices and when their data is excluded, the whole polling of VideoScan is flawed.

DVD Empire, Buy.com, WarnerHome and I am sure others ....

Oh buy the way, the only 3 disks I have purchased from B&M to date. 1 from BestBuy and 2 from WalMart.

That money adds up over time. I get a $25 Amazon gift certificate for around every $840 spent withthe Amazon credit card. I've received several of those for the over 300 titles I've purchased. A few dollars adds up to alot over time. Plus no taxes and free 2 day shipping for me. It all adds up to hundreds of dollars in savings for me during the past 15 months.

Even if it went to 54/46 it could be because HD DVD had 4 new releases this week and Blu-ray had none, or for last week that HD DVD had Blood Diamond. We need to look at the numbers for the individual titles when we can get them.

--Darin

All we've been hearing for months is that it doesn't matter how individual titles are doing on the different formats, all that matters is total sales of each and the corresponding sales ratios.

Now with the possibility that HD DVD could close the gap we are being told to blame it on a poor release week for BD and we should be looking at cross platform titles.

:rolleyes:

Considering I've clarified this a dozen times in the past, I think it was. ;)

I was incorrect (and stated as that I may be). You really didn't have to be an ass about it. That being said, do they include DVD Empire, DeepDiscountDVD, Warner's store, Buy.com or any of the other bazillion places online you can purchase HDM? I was simply stating that IMO the nielson data (while it is the best we have available) has some flaws and that to go by the nielson data alone as the "end all be all" is just silly.

All we've been hearing for months is that it doesn't matter how individual titles are doing on the different formats, all that matters is total sales of each and the corresponding sales ratios.

Now with the possibility that HD DVD could close the gap we are being told to blame it on a poor release week for BD and we should be looking at cross platform titles.

:rolleyes:This is one of your more ridiculous posts I've read. The subject was whether titles have bigger effects in week 2 than in week 1 (whether there is a lag as rdjam was claiming). Did you understand that and if so, why did you write the above?

--Darin

This is one of your more ridiculous posts I've read. The subject was whether titles have bigger effects in week 2 than in week 1 (whether there is a lag as rdjam was claiming). Did you understand that and if so, why did you write the above?

--Darin

What I read was your response to the idea that there could be a potential lag in HD DVD sales and the corresponding data that showed that HD DVD had improved from a 70/30 weekly position to a 65/35 weekly position. You seemed to be blaming this on a potentially weak release schedule for BD that week as well as other factors.

My response is that every time BD has a good sales week HD DVD is "dead" and if HD DVD has a good sales week there are a million excuses for why it is insignificant.

What is "ridiculous" about this is beyond me, but you seem quick to lash out at other members that don't share your opinions lately.

My response is that every time BD has a good sales week HD DVD is "dead" and if HD DVD has a good sales week there are a million excuses for why it is insignificant.I'm guessing you are referring to other people's posts, or how about backing up your claim.
What is "ridiculous" about this is beyond me, but you seem quick to lash out at other members that don't share your opinions lately.It was ridiculous because if people want to figure out if there is a lag in sales, people shouldn't confuse sales for one set of titles for sales from a different set of titles, as I pointed out. I'm pretty sure I have pointed out multiple times that sales for individual weeks are affected by the formats new titles that week (including the Casino Royale against no new HD DVD releases period where some thought that the ratio would continue even after new HD DVD releases came out on 3/27/07). And the :rolleyes: was especially ridiculous. What I said is correct.

Also, interesting comment coming from somebody who claimed here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10979903&&#post10979903
If true, however, I'm wondering what the response is from Darin2p as well as other folks who have been tracking the nielsen numbers over the past six months and have informed us all that HD DVD is dead.Were you saying there that I have informed you all that HD DVD is dead and if so, please back it up.

--Darin

Data are up!

Week 65/35
YTD 67/33
SI 60/40
Isn't it time to drop YTD as that tends to showcase BD? After all we're 6 months into the year. We could now do quarterly for 2006 & 2007, weekly and SI. If there is a change trend it can be hidden in YTD.

There's a problem with your logic. You seem to be assuming that as the user base of HD DVD standalones increases that they are going to continue to buy the same title.No I'm not.
The most significant title on HD DVD right now in terms of sales numbers seems to be Planet Earth and that would be a good week to week data point other than the fact that it is a very expensive box set and we don't know if demand for that title is starting to wane.Part of the conversation you jumped into was:
There might be a delay on DVD Empire, but HD DVD had 4 new releases this week and Blu-ray had none. If there was a delay by Nielsen count like rdjam was pushing, then why do the numbers for things like The Matrix indicate their best showing being the first week they are out? Other than Planet Earth around the time that Discovery showed it again, can you name any titles where the first week wasn't their best week by Nielsen?
As far as your previous comments go, you and I both know that you've made numerous "soft statements" that have a pro BD bias to them;I have already said multiple times that if HD DVD doesn't change their spin rate, then I would like to see Blu-ray win. And the question wasn't whether I have any Blu-ray bias (I've told you that before when you made a false accusation), it was your statement:
If true, however, I'm wondering what the response is from Darin2p as well as other folks who have been tracking the nielsen numbers over the past six months and have informed us all that HD DVD is dead.I think you made that up and showing posts that go along with what I have said about prefering that Blu-ray win if HD DVD doesn't change that bandwidth limitation doesn't support your claim. How about showing some class and either backing up your claim or retracting it instead of trying to deflect?
... but for you to constantly make subtle anti HD DVD posts and then insist that you don't have a bias, that bothers me.How about backing up your statement that I've insisted that I don't have a bias? We've been over this before and you wouldn't back up your claim then either. How many times do I have to say that as things stand I would prefer that Blu-ray win for you to quit posting false accusations? I have 2 HD DVD players and I enjoy my HD DVDs a lot, but I think I've made it clear how I feel about HD DVD's bandwidth decision (which I'm guessing they would do differently if they had to do it over again) and that if that doesn't change, I would prefer that Blu-ray win. Doesn't mean that I don't like HD DVD and care about the content there (which I often rent or buy), but as it stands, that is my position.

--Darin

I've never before seen you admit that you would prefer BD win. It sure explains a lot though.

I've never before seen you admit that you would prefer BD win. It sure explains a lot though.Interesting that you claim that given that we had a conversation about this less than 2 weeks ago here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10915377&&#post10915377

where you claimed:
You go on and on about your format neutrality ...I replied:Go ahead, try to back that statement up. I have said that I prefer that Blu-ray win if HD DVD keeps their current bandwidth limitation and that I recommend both Blu-ray and HD DVD depending on the circumstances for a person, along with owning 2 HD DVD players (I just sold my add-on, so down to 2) and one PS3 myself. You made the claim, so please, back it up.You replied to my post without backing up your claim and to this day have not backed it up. Yet you move to this thread and claim that I "... insist that you don't have a bias ... " and claim that you've never seen me claim what I said here (which was the same as there about preferring Blu-ray win if HD DVD doesn't do something about their bandwidth situation).

So far I haven't seen you back that statement up, or the accusation about informing everybody that HD DVD is dead.

Is there anybody else here confused about me liking the bandwidth on Blu-ray and hoping that HD DVD ups their bandwidth, or that Blu-ray win if HD DVD sticks with their ~30Mbps bandwidth limitation for everything that is a result of picking a 1.0x spin rate for their requirement? I wouldn't expect too many people to be confused about that.

--Darin

Darin and jmpage

how about you guys use PM?

enough of this bickering: please take it off the forum

Isn't it time to drop YTD as that tends to showcase BD? After all we're 6 months into the year. We could now do quarterly for 2006 & 2007, weekly and SI. If there is a change trend it can be hidden in YTD.

That's a good idea, divide it up and have ratios for Q1 '07, Q2 '07, etc etc etc

Isn't it time to drop YTD as that tends to showcase BD? After all we're 6 months into the year. We could now do quarterly for 2006 & 2007, weekly and SI. If there is a change trend it can be hidden in YTD.

Without actual volume information, is this possible?

Without actual volume information, is this possible?


You could do average of change in percentage week to week (for the quarter or whatever), but it wouldn't take into consideration volume.

Without actual volume information, is this possible?
I don't think people compare YTD and SI out of choice. Nielsen numbers as reported in HMM only gives weekly, YTD, SI, and rounded to nearest integer, making it difficult to estimate any other number (I don't think subsequent volume numbers have been as easy to obtain as the early days when they gave 2 decimals).

The YTD number also hardly changes, partly because the weekly numbers average out to the YTD every month or so and there's been a lot of weeks in the year adding to a large number. The SI number seems to move every month closer towards thr YTD number, and that's only because the volume this year is larger than last year.

Other than the occasional reports of volumes, the HMM supplement in june and that large sony april pdf, we don't really have actual numbers. The most complete volume data is only to Mar26 from that large pdf. The next one in june in HMM is only for top 20 disks of each format and combined neutrals.

You could do average of change in percentage week to week (for the quarter or whatever), but it wouldn't take into consideration volume.

Without actual volume, it would be impossible to calculate monthly ratios.

A simple example is this :

Week 1 : 5 BDs sold, 5 HD DVD sold. Ratio 50:50
Week 2 : 90 BDs sold, 10 HD DVD sold. Ratio 90:10

The average of the ratios for two weeks is : 70:30. But volume ratio is actually 95:15 which is actually 86:14.

The weekly numbers fluctuate every week even though they seem to be trending up.

Isn't it time to drop YTD as that tends to showcase BD? After all we're 6 months into the year. We could now do quarterly for 2006 & 2007, weekly and SI. If there is a change trend it can be hidden in YTD.

He isn't creating the data, he is just relaying the data from Home Media Magazine.

If you want to do some different trending you can use the first post, or you can just use this handy key that always works.

BD>HD ;)

He isn't creating the data, he is just relaying the data from Home Media Magazine.



Yes, but it just isn't fair! I mean, after all, the YTD stats tends to showcase BD. We can't have that!

:rolleyes:

OK, why don't we have 2006 Year End? That would showcase HD-DVD. BD fanbois love 2007 YTD as it is a distorted stat. It says the HDM world began with the PS3. Makes them feel "really good". Kind of sad to use a meaningless stat to feed their fandom crack.

Let's be honest: weekly stats; monthly or quarterly; SI. If BD is winning it will show up. YTD is a BD artifact. It won't happen next year, as each year is not a zero balance, like YTD is this year for BD.

Maybe you guys can help me, are these numbers through actual cash money sales or based off of stock from the stores, i know there has been some buy one get one free sales on blu-ray and some buy two get one free sales as well, because i know when the stores are carying those deals they also scan the other discs to keep track of stock. So do those report in to nielsen as sales?

Maybe you guys can help me, are these numbers through actual cash money sales or based off of stock from the stores, i know there has been some buy one get one free sales on blu-ray and some buy two get one free sales as well, because i know when the stores are carying those deals they also scan the other discs to keep track of stock. So do those report in to nielsen as sales?My understanding is that the discs in store that are counted as "free" where you have to buy something else do count. That goes for both sides, including the deals Circuit City and Best Buy were running were people would get free discs on the spot if they bought a Toshiba HD DVD player, and the deal recently where buying a player and one of the Matrix box sets would get people 2 "free" movies.

--Darin

OK, why don't we have 2006 Year End? That would showcase HD-DVD. BD fanbois love 2007 YTD as it is a distorted stat. It says the HDM world began with the PS3. Makes them feel "really good". Kind of sad to use a meaningless stat to feed their fandom crack.

Let's be honest: weekly stats; monthly or quarterly; SI. If BD is winning it will show up. YTD is a BD artifact. It won't happen next year, as each year is not a zero balance, like YTD is this year for BD.
Why in the world would you as a HD-DVD fanboy want to showcase that HD-DVD had a demanding lead for 2006? Since it's very obvious BD has walked away with 2007 YTD (as well as invert the balance of power for the SI), it only looks that much worse for HD-DVD if you highlight it's dominate position for last year. I can't for the life of me understand why you'd want to advertise that you once had a demanding lead and have since rapidly lost it. There's no way to really spin the numbers in favor of HD-DVD... the format is in trouble and it certainly doesn't look like software sales will be any better as we near the end of the year. At best, there might be a few 'better' weeks over the next month or two... after that it's going to get ugly. ;)

OK, why don't we have 2006 Year End? That would showcase HD-DVD. BD fanbois love 2007 YTD as it is a distorted stat. It says the HDM world began with the PS3. Makes them feel "really good". Kind of sad to use a meaningless stat to feed their fandom crack.

Let's be honest: weekly stats; monthly or quarterly; SI. If BD is winning it will show up. YTD is a BD artifact. It won't happen next year, as each year is not a zero balance, like YTD is this year for BD.

I have absolutely zero understanding of what this posting means. But if you set up some kind of system to accurately track sales each month and each quarter, post a link here because I'd like to see those counts.

OK, why don't we have 2006 Year End? That would showcase HD-DVD. BD fanbois love 2007 YTD as it is a distorted stat.Actually 2007 makes far more sense as a stat in this format war considering that Blu-ray wasn't even released until 2 months after HD DVD in 2006. That and the fact that 2007 just happens to be the year we are currently in and as such is a more recent stat. WayneL, it is obvious you don't like YTD information but that is a stat that Nielsen VideoScan keeps up with and as such is relevant to this thread.

BD started in June 2006 and HD DVD started in April 2006. BD only started 2 months after HD DVD.

OK, why don't we have 2006 Year End? That would showcase HD-DVD. BD fanbois love 2007 YTD as it is a distorted stat. It says the HDM world began with the PS3. Makes them feel "really good". Kind of sad to use a meaningless stat to feed their fandom crack.

Let's be honest: weekly stats; monthly or quarterly; SI. If BD is winning it will show up. YTD is a BD artifact. It won't happen next year, as each year is not a zero balance, like YTD is this year for BD.

This makes zero sense. A "distorted stat"? WTH? :confused:

OK, why don't we have 2006 Year End? That would showcase HD-DVD.We have 2006 Year End plus a few days (the SI for 1/7/07). That was 41.2/58.8 for HD DVD. Do you really think it showcases HD DVD to show that Since Inception went from being almost 60/40 for HD DVD to 60/40 for Blu-ray in less than 7 months? I think it would be more encouraging for HD DVD if they had gone from being down 80/20 to get it to 60/40 than to lose their lead like that. Earlier in 2006 HD DVD probably had an even bigger than 60/40 lead in SI. I remember something from the HD DVD group around last September that indicated around 3:1 advantage for HD DVD at that time.

--Darin

BD started in June 2006 and HD DVD started in April 2006. BD only started 2 months after HD DVD.True, though I would point out that 2 months isn't exactly a small amount of time when we consider how much it would affect 2006 sales for the two HD formats. That would be 9 months worth of sales compared to 7 months worth of sales.

True, though I would point out that 2 months isn't exactly a small amount of time when we consider how much it would affect 2006 YTD sales for the two HD formats. That would be 9 months worth of sales compared to 7 months worth of sales.On one hand it looks small, but try comparing HD DVD's first 12 months of disc sales to Blu-ray's first 12 months of disc sales and I bet we would get some screams about that being unfair. At this point I'm okay with comparing 15 months for HD DVD to 13 months for Blu-ray, but we should realize that HD DVD got out of the gate sooner and that helped it gain an early lead that has been made up and then some.

--Darin

Isn't it time to drop YTD as that tends to showcase BD? After all we're 6 months into the year. We could now do quarterly for 2006 & 2007, weekly and SI. If there is a change trend it can be hidden in YTD.

yes..let's try and get rid of the numbers that don't showcase our chosen format...

This makes zero sense. A "distorted stat"? WTH? :confused:

:D I can almost here the "It's not fair. Waaaaaaaaaaa!"

YTD is perfectly valid for 2007, just as it was for 2006. Noone stopping any HDDVD partisan from pulling up the 2006 YTD. It's just completely irrelevent cause it's history and the YTD of the current year IS relevent. If he was paying attention to it, he might have a small hope to cling to in that the 2007 YTD advantage for BD has been going very slowly down. Reality might then point out that SI is very slowly going up), though. ;)

Isn't it time to drop YTD as that tends to showcase BD? After all we're 6 months into the year. We could now do quarterly for 2006 & 2007, weekly and SI. If there is a change trend it can be hidden in YTD.

We should probably just delete any Blu-ray exclusive sales from the Nielsen numbers as well. Those tend to showcase BD.

What you are asking for is just so odd to me. Why would we ignore various ways to group and organize the data? I can understand if you want to include additional data groupings, but as far as sales go you don't get much more standard across industries than SI, YTD, and Weekly sales.

We should just forget everything except SI

it shows the currently owned base

...and will always trend toward the eventual sole survivor

.

Yes, but it just isn't fair! I mean, after all, the YTD stats tends to showcase BD. We can't have that!

:rolleyes:
Ya' know... I was thinking this all day long. I have been out of the loop and didn't want to comment, but this is sure what it sounded like to me.

I don't care if YTD is kept or not, but it would be interesting to see the sales ratio for separate quarters; Q1 '07, Q2 '07 etc.

2006 was 39.1/60.9 BD/HD.

Q1 '07 was 70/30.

We don't have exact data about Q2 '07, but it must be about 63-64% for BD.

In other news, from HMM:

Not surprisingly, the high-definition disc of Blood Diamond debuted at No. 1 on the HD DVD sales chart. Sony Pictures Home Entertainment’s Ghost Rider remained the top Blu-ray Disc seller.

My understanding is that the discs in store that are counted as "free" where you have to buy something else do count. That goes for both sides, including the deals Circuit City and Best Buy were running were people would get free discs on the spot if they bought a Toshiba HD DVD player, and the deal recently where buying a player and one of the Matrix box sets would get people 2 "free" movies.

--Darin

Thanks Darin just wanted to see for sure if in fact they were included in the nielsen scan. But doesn't that skew it a little bit? Because after all aren't the sales more important than the freebies that come with it? Either with the player or the buy one get one free's for the blu-ray side of things.

Thanks Darin just wanted to see for sure if in fact they were included in the nielsen scan. But doesn't that skew it a little bit? Because after all aren't the sales more important than the freebies that come with it? Either with the player or the buy one get one free's for the blu-ray side of things.It does skew things, but it is a gray area and I don't see anyway to get it perfect. Should movies on sale count for less? I remember paying $18 for a good HD DVD on sale at Fry's (one of the Weinstein titles I think) and have gotten BDs at low prices also. If one has a half off sale and the other has buy-one-get-one-free, should the disc sales be counted differently? How about 2-for-$25 or buy-one-get-one-for-a-dollar? It would be nice if there was a perfect solution, but I don't see one. Fortunately I don't think it was a big enough seller to make a big difference for Nielsen, but HD DVD even had a title for $5.95. The HD DVD sampler. I remember it was #1 on one site for a little while (not sure if that was dvdempire or another site). The expensive box sets vs individual titles is another tough area to know exactly what to do. Like how should one season of a TV series be counted if it is a $100 box set vs a box set of movies for the same price?

--Darin

Isn't it time to drop YTD as that tends to showcase BD?

Yeah because the better-selling format this year has always been, like, BD. :D



After all we're 6 months into the year. We could now do quarterly for 2006 & 2007, weekly and SI. If there is a change trend it can be hidden in YTD.

If a change trend is hidden in YTD, it will be doubly so in SI, which moves even more slowly, and with HMM not giving us decimals, it stays unchanged for weeks and weeks.

FWIW we have monthly ratios too:

http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/170/neilsonhdmarketsharejunwh9.jpg

If a change trend is hidden in YTD, it will be doubly so in SI, which moves even more slowly, and with HMM not giving us decimals, it stays unchanged for weeks and weeks.
That kind of begs the question, If the trend is so slight, and/or the numbers are so small, that the YTD and SI ratios hardly change over a period of months, then how important or relevant can the weekly ratios be?
J

Just a quick confirmation on those Videscan monthly averages (based on the info on page 1):

Jan 67:33
Feb 68:32
Mar 72:28 (incomplete - 1 week missing)
Apr 62:38 (incomplete - 1 week missing)
May 62:38
Jun 65:35
Jul 65:35 (so far)

So far this year the quarterly averages are:

Q1 69:31
Q2 63:37


The monthly averages are based on all the weekly figures added togather, then divided by the number of weeks for which we have information.

The quarterly figures do the same by adding the monthly figures, then dividing by the number of months (3).

Looking at monthly and quarterly figures is more helpful, as the 'big releases' don't cause the same kind of unnatural blips. It prevents us arguing as to whether or not that figure was due to 'Casino Royale', or 'Universal released a lot that week', etc. I sometimes think you can stand so close that you can't see the wood for the trees.

The monthly and quarterly figures clearly show that the PS3 (launched in late '06) gave BD a big push, which has now partly, but slowly, been clawed back.

Steve W

Yeah because the better-selling format this year has always been, like, BD. :D





If a change trend is hidden in YTD, it will be doubly so in SI, which moves even more slowly, and with HMM not giving us decimals, it stays unchanged for weeks and weeks.

FWIW we have monthly ratios too:

http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/170/neilsonhdmarketsharejunwh9.jpg
I wonder if it is possible to pick a month with more data than usual, take each weekly ratio and use the weekly and monthly ratios to try to find more about the weekly units for that month. It doesn't seem like there's enough equations and theres too many variables, but perhaps we missed some data in there.

Just a quick confirmation on those Videscan monthly averages (based on the info on page 1):

Jan 67:33
Feb 68:32
Mar 72:28 (incomplete - 1 week missing)
Apr 62:38 (incomplete - 1 week missing)
May 62:38
Jun 65:35
Jul 65:35 (so far)

So far this year the quarterly averages are:

Q1 69:31
Q2 63:37


The monthly averages are based on all the weekly figures added togather, then divided by the number of weeks for which we have information.

The quarterly figures do the same by adding the monthly figures, then dividing by the number of months (3).

Looking at monthly and quarterly figures is more helpful, as the 'big releases' don't cause the same kind of unnatural blips. It prevents us arguing as to whether or not that figure was due to 'Casino Royale', or 'Universal released a lot that week', etc. I sometimes think you can stand so close that you can't see the wood for the trees.

The monthly and quarterly figures clearly show that the PS3 (launched in late '06) gave BD a big push, which has now partly, but slowly, been clawed back.

Steve W

This analysis is flawed though, because weeks with a higher volume will offset other weeks with lower volumes. In your method, every week is counted equally without regard to the unit volume. A 70:30 BD week with 100,000 total volume would obviously carry more weighting than a 60:40 BD week with 50,000 volume. (Numbers chosen arbitrarily for sake of example)

This analysis is flawed though, because weeks with a higher volume will offset other weeks with lower volumes. In your method, every week is counted equally without regard to the unit volume. A 70:30 BD week with 100,000 total volume would obviously carry more weighting than a 60:40 BD week with 50,000 volume. (Numbers chosen arbitrarily for sake of example)

Why bother averaging percentages when we have the real monthly ratios:

Jan 67/33
Feb 68/32
Mar 74/26
Apr 62/38
May 64/36

This analysis is flawed though, because weeks with a higher volume will offset other weeks with lower volumes. In your method, every week is counted equally without regard to the unit volume. A 70:30 BD week with 100,000 total volume would obviously carry more weighting than a 60:40 BD week with 50,000 volume. (Numbers chosen arbitrarily for sake of example)

Yes, I agree.

For example, look at June's figures. HD DVD was doing quite well, but the last week jumped to 70:30 to BD. Looking at the top 10 for that week and the previous one, it was clear that overall sales were pretty low, but 'Bridge...' sold well as a one-off. This weighted the monthly figure slightly more to BD.

Whilst agreeing with your point, until we get official monthly & quarterly figures from VideoScan, it's as good as we're likely to get.

Steve W

Why bother averaging percentages when we have the real monthly ratios:

Jan 67/33
Feb 68/32
Mar 74/26
Apr 62/38
May 64/36


AH!

Where did they come from? Not seen them before.

It's amazing how close my averaged figures were!

Steve W

Why bother averaging percentages when we have the real monthly ratios:

Jan 67/33
Feb 68/32
Mar 74/26
Apr 62/38
May 64/36

Well, he's trying to consolidate and point out a trend that sees HD DVD improving in the second quarter relative to the first. I was simply highlighting that the ratios - no matter the time encompassed - cannot be averaged to reach a conclusion, as different months/weeks would *have* to be weighted by volumes during said period. So... it's impossible to create a number for relative quarterly trends as he is doing.


Whilst agreeing with your point, until we get official monthly & quarterly figures from VideoScan, it's as good as we're likely to get.

Steve W

Ok yes, fair enough. :)

AH!

Where did they come from? Not seen them before.

It's amazing how close my averaged figures were!

Steve W

1. Home Media Magazine, June 17-23, 2007

2. Graph in the initial post of the thread

3. Graph six posts above yours

The monthly and quarterly figures clearly show that the PS3 (launched in late '06) gave BD a big push, which has now partly, but slowly, been clawed back.


That is if you assume that number of releases has no effect on sales.

That is if you assume that number of releases has no effect on sales.

...or dropping the MSRP by $100 and then adding a $100 instant rebate on top of that...

The current marketshare calculation that only looks at units sold is flawed since it is easily manipulated by giveaways and discounts and buy one get one etc type deals....I would much prefer to see a $ market share number. Not sure why we don't get that.....

And if everyone has a dual format player, then there's no need for two formats. Anyway you slice it, only one format is going to come out of this war alive... there's no room or need for two formats. At this point it very much looks like BR will be the one left standing. Manufacturing costs.......

HD DVD may be preferable for smaller content providers to produce content on for many years. Their well may be more content available for HD DVD in the next few years.

HD DVD player prices seem to constantly below Blu-ray player prices and they both will be getting to mass adoption levels next year, HD DVD first and Blu-ray second.

There is a very real chance that both formats will survive if they both get over 1.5 to 2 million installed players each.

If HD DVD reaches that point, it may never die. If the PS3 doesn't crash totally this fall and holiday season, its existence will ensure Blu-ray will survive.

Prices are dropping and more content is coming available for both sides. The only thing holding back sales may be retail prices and availability of movie discs, which could change whenever retailers want it to.

Maybe this format war hasn't been bad after all?

Spartacus sold 2862 on HD DVD through the middle of March. It is supposedly a very poor disk (I haven't seen it) but the sales number is still well below any acceptable definition of reasonable. I doubt that a superb disk of the title would have done much better.

I think you are partly right but I also think that the HD DVD crowd is a bit more atuned to the classics than Blu-ray owners, but only a bit and not enough to influence a programmer.

Warners is very proud of the work it does on restoring and releasing classic films. They also have fully 1/3 of the films on the AFI Best 100 list.

George Feltenstein and his team are excellent. Listening to them, they are also very pro-HD DVD, but I suspect that the numbers are erasing that bias. But they know film. They also know that they cannot release many classics right now.

This is killing me. Fox just released The Sand Pebbles in a gorgeous new DVD, but no Blu-ray. Universal released Flower Drum Song in a terrific DVD last year. I might have bought HD DVD just to get it on HD DVD (but it isn't there of course) together with a great Spartacus.

Right now, if you want to see classic films in hd, try cable, especially HDNet Movies. HDM is for action flicks. Or hope for the end of the format war. Just to add.

These new DVD releases look fantastic upconverted on my HD XA2.

They look better than broadcast cable or sat HD.

Now I can tell, that they are are smidgen below HD DVD or Blu-ray, but with a new restored anamorphic DVD release, my HD XA2 does an amazing job.

I'm sure that people with other HD DVD or Blu-ray players that upconvert, they are experiencing tthe same thing.

As a matter of fact, Myself and others I know fully intend to buy a lot more HD discs in the future, but we are being patitent for prices to drop a bit and we have plenty of standard upconverted content to watch again fropm our existing libraries.

EVEn though I have purchased a lot of HD, even I will purchase a lot more as HD movie prices drop.

All told, if a title is available or announced to be coming out in HD DVD I will buy it or wait for it to come out. If it is announced or available in Blu-ray I will not buy it it DVD, I will watch my existing copy or rent it. But if it announced in neither format, then its no biggie, I just watch the upconverted DVD version.

For me, I have reached the point where I do not have time to watch the HD content already released.

I am sure that for most people the available catalog is enough to be a critical mass of content to support a purchase decision.

I just need prices to drop to under $19.99 per title before I buy most titles now.

I think HD sales of both formats are going to skyrocket when retail prices drop later this year.

OK, why don't we have 2006 Year End? That would showcase HD-DVD. BD fanbois love 2007 YTD as it is a distorted stat. It says the HDM world began with the PS3. Makes them feel "really good". Kind of sad to use a meaningless stat to feed their fandom crack.

Let's be honest: weekly stats; monthly or quarterly; SI. If BD is winning it will show up. YTD is a BD artifact. It won't happen next year, as each year is not a zero balance, like YTD is this year for BD.
Sorry for the rant and thanks for the explanations. The ratios obviously aren't as useful as sales numbers, which I guess are being hidden so they can sell them. The monthly ratio chart is more useful than YTD IMO, but if the great provider (VS) would give us quarterly ratios it would help compensate for the lack of hard data, and better show any trends IMO .

Nielsen includes amazon.

Are you sure? Ask Grubert.

Are you sure? Ask Grubert.


http://img101.mytextgraphics.com/photolava/2007/07/12/explode-474dh2rr7.gif

:D

Actually 2007 makes far more sense as a stat in this format war considering that Blu-ray wasn't even released until 2 months after HD DVD in 2006. That and the fact that 2007 just happens to be the year we are currently in and as such is a more recent stat. WayneL, it is obvious you don't like YTD information but that is a stat that Nielsen VideoScan keeps up with and as such is relevant to this thread. For the record, I think we should do exactly what we are doing now, report the data as reflected in HMM.

The weekly first alert data, the YTD and SI numbers are published there. Its just simplier to post them.

if we want to discuss there significance, that 's what the thread is for. But not mentioning SI or YTD is silly.

It favors Blu-ray now, but the consistency of the data set will allow us to see changes and trends over time.

BTW, I personnally feel that the weekly numbers , being first alert data, probably skew at the moment to Blu-ray as they are recordeing the electronic POS data, adn not the survey data of the final numbers. But that blu-ray advantage will lessen and may even flip to HD DVD as more brick and mortar retail locations stock and sell more and more HD DVD and Blu-ray discs at lowere prices.

The Nielson/Videoscan data is indeed the best we have at the moment, but we must remember we have been deliberately limited to the first alert weekly data and have been locked out of the final weekly data since the end of the March 18th data set.

The first alert numbers are not the same as the final weekly numbers.

The current marketshare calculation that only looks at units sold is flawed since it is easily manipulated by giveaways and discounts and buy one get one etc type deals....I would much prefer to see a $ market share number. Not sure why we don't get that.....

I Agree, if 3,000 people buy a buy one get one free movie from fry's that equals 6,000 sold from one store but what about all there stores. It skews nielsen because im pretty sure people take advantage of those sales nicely. Plus the free movies have a affect on it too. I would deffiently rather have the cash money dollar sign figures.

For the record, I think we should do exactly what we are doing now, report the data as reflected in HMM.

The weekly first alert data, the YTD and SI numbers are published there. Its just simplier to post them.

if we want to discuss there significance, that 's what the thread is for. But not mentioning SI or YTD is silly.

It favors Blu-ray now, but the consistency of the data set will allow us to see changes and trends over time.

BTW, I personnally feel that the weekly numbers , being first alert data, probably skew at the moment to Blu-ray as they are recordeing the electronic POS data, adn not the survey data of the final numbers. But that blu-ray advantage will lessen and may even flip to HD DVD as more brick and mortar retail locations stock and sell more and more HD DVD and Blu-ray discs at lowere prices.

The Nielson/Videoscan data is indeed the best we have at the moment, but we must remember we have been deliberately limited to the first alert weekly data and have been locked out of the final weekly data since the end of the March 18th data set.

The first alert numbers are not the same as the final weekly numbers.
So we'll be doing YTD in 2008 too? Better than nothing, but not much. The big bang at the start of the year hides everything else. Should have quarters.

Q2+Q3 2006: 25/75
Q4 2006: 43/57
Q1 2007: 70/30
Q2 2007: 63/37 or 64/36

So we'll be doing YTD in 2008 too? Better than nothing, but not much. The big bang at the start of the year hides everything else. Should have quarters. why not YTD in 2008. We can always add the YTD historical 2006 2007 numbers for completeness.

Its the 4th qtr numbers that I an interested in. Thats when things get serious.

The Nielson/Videoscan data is indeed the best we have at the moment, but we must remember we have been deliberately limited to the first alert weekly data and have been locked out of the final weekly data since the end of the March 18th data set.

The first alert numbers are not the same as the final weekly numbers.

I think you're being slightly melodramatic here.

It is highly improbable that the sales ratio would change. If you get data from 100 stores and it shows 70:30 for Blu-ray then getting data from a further 10 stores is unlikely to make any significant difference.

The final data does make a difference to sales volume calculations but we don't see these until many weeks after the event. For example, all those volume figures you've seen published in HMM including the most recent YTD sales chart were all based on final data.

I think you're being slightly melodramatic here.

It is highly improbable that the sales ratio would change. If you get data from 100 stores and it shows 70:30 for Blu-ray then getting data from a further 10 stores is unlikely to make any significant difference.

The final data does make a difference to sales volume calculations but we don't see these until many weeks after the event. For example, all those volume figures you've seen published in HMM including the most recent YTD sales chart were all based on final data.

It of course depends on the sampling and how you account for the variance. A very small sample will do if it is done well.

Not too surprising really, but with the new PS3 price cut and Blu-ray promotion, BD's kindof kickin butt on the only-somewhat-useful Amazon ranks.

BD
5) Memento (Amazon promotion of buy a PS3, get a copy of Memento)
7) 300 pre-order
13) Resident Evil - Apocalypse
18) PE
82) Fifth Element Remastered pre-order

HD
12) PE
20) 300

Even though it's catalog, I'd expected Bourne Identity pre-orders to crack the top 100 for HD, but hasn't happened. Maybe Ultimatum can drum up some demand for it later this month. Anywho, whenever these Nielson #s come out, it'll be pretty interesting.

Not too surprising really, but with the new PS3 price cut and Blu-ray promotion, BD's kindof kickin butt on the only-somewhat-useful Amazon ranks.

BD
5) Memento (Amazon promotion of buy a PS3, get a copy of Memento)
7) 300 pre-order
13) Resident Evil - Apocalypse
18) PE
82) Fifth Element Remastered pre-order

HD
12) PE
20) 300

Even though it's catalog, I'd expected Bourne Identity pre-orders to crack the top 100 for HD, but hasn't happened. Maybe Ultimatum can drum up some demand for it later this month. Anywho, whenever these Nielson #s come out, it'll be pretty interesting.

Why is Resident Evil - Apocalypse so low? Is it part of a bundle or something like Memento?

Yeah, I think they bumped RE into the promo. They may be running out of "on hand stock" for Memento and switched to another title they have plenty of for the promotion.

I noticed that the eproductwars.com consistently misfiled Resident Evil and it never shows up. They also did something strange and miscounted all HD DVD titles sometime ago.

Nielsen prediction (repost)

68/32

I am going to predict that 'The Patriot' on BD outsells 'Blood Diamond
on HD DVD.

That is assuming we get a Top 10 for the week from HMM.

65:35

unchanged from the previous #s. Next week's prediction will move in BD's favor though.

69:31 BD/HDDVD

Next week I'm thinking will be the one of the best for Blu-ray, I'm thinking 75:25 or so...

69:31 BD/HDDVD

Next week I'm thinking will be the one of the best for Blu-ray, I'm thinking 75:25 or so...

Why?

Price change/releases/bundled movies counting as sales?

edit: No BD releases on the 10th, no HD DVD releases on the 17th, so I think the week after next might be strong.

67-33

It of course depends on the sampling and how you account for the variance. A very small sample will do if it is done well.

Would it be reasonable to say that Nielsen have plenty of experience and can be expected to do a good job? I'm pretty sure they know enough about data gathering and statistical analysis to make sure they report accurate data.

Keep in mind that Nielsen make their money by selling on this data to interested parties, some of whom will make strategic commercial decisions based upon it.

In other words, if Nielsen were crap at their job and the data was innacurate they would not make much money.

I'm not clear on why people are trying to suggest the Nielsen data is not accurate. Is their some benefit to Nielsen in selling dodgy data? I'm interested to know why people think they might do this.

Edit: 68:32 (Blu-ray win)

I'm not clear on why people are trying to suggest the Nielsen data is not accurate.
Sure you are. If the data doesn't support the hypothesis, the data must be wrong. Scientific method, right? ;)

Prediction: 64-36

Bigger Prediction: Last week ever we see under 70/30

I will go for 59-41 this week. I also think things will be light for Blu-ray until the reporting of the last week in July (including 300).

Prediction: 64-36

Bigger Prediction: Last week ever we see under 70/30

I will go for 59-41 this week. I also think things will be light for Blu-ray until the reporting of the last week in July (including 300).

I like the bolder predictions, thanks guys.

My bold prediction is The Patriot on BD outselling Blood Diamond on HD DVD.

Maybe not as bold as your predictions but pretty bold for me.

Sure you are. If the data doesn't support the hypothesis, the data must be wrong. Scientific method, right? ;)
It's called Occam's liquid paper. :D (sorry, couldn't resist).

Just to add.

These new DVD releases look fantastic upconverted on my HD XA2.

They look better than broadcast cable or sat HD.

Now I can tell, that they are are smidgen below HD DVD or Blu-ray, but with a new restored anamorphic DVD release, my HD XA2 does an amazing job.

I'm sure that people with other HD DVD or Blu-ray players that upconvert, they are experiencing tthe same thing.

....

Uh...no.

Even broadcast cable or sat HD look better than upconverted SD DVD, no matter how good you think your XA2 is, unless you have some really bad overly compressed HD. And even if that is the case, to say that HD-DVD or Blu-ray is only a "smidgen" better than upconverted SD DVD from your XA2 is beyond ridiculous.

If you really feel that way, why bother getting into either of the new HD disc formats....especially at this stage of the game?

Bottom line: there is NO COMPARISON between the PQ of Blu-ray or HD-DVD and upconverted SD DVD. A "smidgen"? Come on! :rolleyes:

My prediction . . . hmm . . . 55/45 in favor of Blu-ray. :)

68/32 BD is my guestimate.

69 - 31 Blu-ray

TOP 3

The Patriot
Blood Diamond
??

I wonder how Memento or RE will end up :) maybe as first two :)

Marek

89:11-bd

89:11-bd

Somehow Mr Good Cat got a hold of the late November issue of the Nielsen report after titles like Spider-Man 3, Ratatouille, Pirates 3, The Simpsons Movie, and Live Free or Die Hard came out. :D

I predict the same numbers as last week, give or take 2 percentage points.

Somehow Mr Good Cat got a hold of the late November issue of the Nielsen report after titles like Spider-Man 3, Ratatouille, Pirates 3, The Simpsons Movie, and Live Free or Die Hard came out. :D

I predict the same numbers as last week, give or take 2 percentage points.

pirates coming out in december :) but anyway :) I like very much that RATIO :)

Marek

pirates coming out in December :)


Preorders! :D

OK... substitute Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer ;)

61:39 Blu-ray.

Preorders! :D

OK... substitute Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer ;)

:)

Uh...no.

Even broadcast cable or sat HD look better than upconverted SD DVD, no matter how good you think your XA2 is, unless you have some really bad overly compressed HD. And even if that is the case, to say that HD-DVD or Blu-ray is only a "smidgen" better than upconverted SD DVD from your XA2 is beyond ridiculous.

If you really feel that way, why bother getting into either of the new HD disc formats....especially at this stage of the game?

Bottom line: there is NO COMPARISON between the PQ of Blu-ray or HD-DVD and upconverted SD DVD. A "smidgen"? Come on! :rolleyes:
Bravo! I am surprised with some of the crazy things that get posted on here. It is nice to see someone call a poster out when warrented.

I have seen the oppos, the xa2, and the ps3 upconvert SD DVD. All are much better than the video quality of SD DVD player that I have used in the last several years, but none are even close to HD cable, and it is another step up to Blu-ray quality.

HD video quality is much better than the best of upconverted SD DVD video quality.

Upconversion may be good enough for Kosty, but it is not anywhere good enough for most of us.

Bravo! I am surprised with some of the crazy things that get posted on here. It is nice to see someone call a poster out when warrented.

I have seen the oppos, the xa2, and the ps3 upconvert SD DVD. All are much better than the video quality of SD DVD player that I have used in the last several years, but none are even close to HD cable, and it is another step up to Blu-ray quality.

HD video quality is much better than the best of upconverted SD DVD video quality.

Upconversion may be good enough for Kosty, but it is not anywhere good enough for most of us.

I think a lot of that type of sentiment is related to sour grapes, maybe not Kosty in particular but you do see a lot of odd justifications about stuff that just happens to not be available to certain people, from both sides.

HD video quality is much better than the best of upconverted SD DVD video quality.

Upconversion may be good enough for Kosty, but it is not anywhere good enough for most of us.

Totally agree.

Upconversion may be good enough for Kosty, but it is not anywhere good enough for most of us.

If it's between upconversion on my HD-DVD gear or wasting $500+ for a Blu-ray player just to watch Sony, Fox and Disney movies in HD I'm sooooo going to upconvert. :)

If it's between upconversion on my HD-DVD gear or wasting $500+ for a Blu-ray player just to watch Sony, Fox and Disney movies in HD I'm sooooo going to upconvert. :)

Hey, thanks very much for that, and only two posts after mine.

I really appreciate the example.

Have a good one.

Hey, thanks very much for that, and only two posts after mine.

I really appreciate the example.

Have a good one.

He just couldn't resist. :) :p

If it's between upconversion on my HD-DVD gear or wasting $500+ for a Blu-ray player just to watch Sony, Fox and Disney movies in HD I'm sooooo going to upconvert. :)
To put it another way, Universal has enough great titles to last until there's a cheap, full-featured BD player :)

To put it another way, Universal has enough great titles to last until there's a cheap, full-featured BD player :)

Wow thanks again, you guys are just lining up.

have a good one

edit: in the interest of equal time, it might be good to hear justifications from a non HD DVD supporter

Hey, don't let 'em get to you. Sure upconversion is good enough for them. The last couple months worth of HD-DVD releases are pretty much upconversion themselves. They're used to it. Why do you think Universal got rid of combos on their catalog titles? They don't need to put the same thing on the other side :D

If it's between upconversion on my HD-DVD gear or wasting $500+ for a Blu-ray player just to watch Sony, Fox and Disney movies in HD I'm sooooo going to upconvert. :)

Actually, it's the other way around for me. I ONLY have an HD DVD player to watch Universal. Period. I can/will be able to watch pretty much everything else on Blu-ray including Warner and Paramount.

If/when Universal supports Blu-ray, bye-bye HD-A2. :) (I use my PS3 now for SD DVD).

Reminder: this thread is to discuss Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios, etc. It's not the format battle thread. Thank you.

^^^ Yeah, where are those numbers BTW? By now (mid-morning ET) we'd usually at least have the Top 10 titles for each format from Videoscan and the ratios from Nielsen (or viceversa). Absent the numbers there's got to be something else we have to talk about amongst ourselves, right? ;)

edit: in the interest of equal time, it might be good to hear justifications from a non HD DVD supporter

Sure. I'm staying away from Universal titles until they become avialable on Blu-ray. If that never happens, oh well, I'll most certainly will survive.

I find it interesting how certain people so concerned about image quality so easily will settle for upconverted SD DVDs to watch the content not available to them on their chosen format. Or how easily they will ridicule the library of titles avialable from studios not on their chosen format. It's pretty transparent, me thinks....

Anyways, 68:32.

edit: in the interest of equal time, it might be good to hear justifications from a non HD DVD supporter

How about "nobody watches/likes extras anyway"? That seems to be a popular one. :D

How about "nobody watches/likes extras anyway"? That seems to be a popular one. :D

I agree, that is a very popular one, even in polls by BD insiders.

I will take it in HD any time over up converted SD. That said, currently there is a lot to watch in HD-DVD. Doesn't mean I wouldn't/don't want a some of the BR exclusives like TFE (assuming its bang on this time), Black Hawk Down (audio alone might be worth it for this one), Pirates One, etc.

That said, while not ideal I can survive with the current amount of HD-DVD movies and up converted BR exclusives for a while longer.

Either they become available on HD-DVD or I get a fully featured profile 1.1 or better player with advanced audio support and a price well south of $400. I can wait.

So I think some, who are not just waving their preferred formats flags (same exact argument goes for the BR side) are saying that up converted for now is OK for those or similar reasons. While not ideal, the situation with most HD or BD supporters is that some up conversion is manageable and will still be manageable in the near to mid term.

At the current pricing trends and when I expect to see Profile 1.1 players etc I figure to be going neutral in Q1-Q2 2008. That could of course change very quickly with the release of the right player. Heck if the Samsung Combo player does all its seems to be promising then the added insurance of having a Combo player may push my price point up considerable.

Anyway, not trying to start an argument, just saying that while not ideal, up converted SD-DVD can me survived for a while and isn't the end of the world.

Cheers,

Richard

PS. We are all still upconverting the SD-DVD movies that have not yet been released on either format and there are a gazzilion of them and we manage ;-)

That said, while not ideal I can survive with the current amount of HD-DVD movies and up converted BR exclusives for a while longer. Either they become available on HD-DVD or I get a fully featured profile 1.1 or better player with advanced audio support and a price well south of $400. I can wait.

PS. We are all still upconverting the SD-DVD movies that have not yet been released on either format and there are a gazzilion of them and we manage ;-)

DING, DING, DING, DING, DING, DING, DING, DING!!! :D

^^^ Yeah, where are those numbers BTW? By now (mid-morning ET) we'd usually at least have the Top 10 titles for each format from Videoscan and the ratios from Nielsen (or viceversa). Absent the numbers there's got to be something else we have to talk about amongst ourselves, right? ;)usually the numbers come early afternoon, although they've been up anywhere from mid-morning to late evening.

How about "nobody watches/likes extras anyway"? That seems to be a popular one. :D
We're about to find out end of july if people will pay $4 or $5 to get a lot of interactive extras. 300 sales should provide valuable insights on what highdef movie buyers really want.

What do you think? :D

Top HD DVD Sales
WEEK ENDED 7/8/2007

1 BLOOD DIAMOND (WB, $28.99)
2 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
3 THE UNTOUCHABLES (PAR, $29.99)
4 THE BIG LEBOWSKI (UNI, $29.98)
5 THE WARRIORS (PAR, $29.99)
6 BREACH (UNI, $39.98)
7 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
8 FEAR AND LOATHING IN LAS VEGAS (UNI, $29.98)
9 THE COMPLETE MATRIX TRILOGY (WB, $99.99)
10 MALLRATS (UNI, $29.98)


Top Blu-ray Sales
WEEK ENDED 7/8/2007

1 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
2 THE PATRIOT (SONY, $28.95)
3 GHOST RIDER (SONY, $38.96)
4 THE UNTOUCHABLES (PAR, $29.99)
5 CASINO ROYALE (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
6 APOCALYPTO (DIS, $34.99)
7 BLOOD DIAMOND (WB, $28.99)
8 BRIDGE TO TERABITHIA (DIS, $34.99)
9 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST (DIS, $34.99)
10 KING ARTHUR: DIRECTOR'S CUT (DIS, $29.99)



Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

We're about to find out end of july if people will pay $4 or $5 to get a lot of interactive extras. 300 sales should provide valuable insights on what highdef movie buyers really want.

What do you think? :D

I think 300 will appeal to the PS3 crowd so their buying will make it tough to slice out which duel format owners buy one or the other. I expect 300 to sell much better on BR than HD-DVD for this reason.

What you need to know is how may Duel format owners buy one versus the other and I just don't see how you slice off that piece of the pie.

Cheers,

Richard

Top HD DVD Sales
WEEK ENDED 7/8/2007

1 BLOOD DIAMOND (WB, $28.99)
2 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
3 THE UNTOUCHABLES (PAR, $29.99)
4 THE BIG LEBOWSKI (UNI, $29.98)
5 THE WARRIORS (PAR, $29.99)
6 BREACH (UNI, $39.98)
7 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
8 FEAR AND LOATHING IN LAS VEGAS (UNI, $29.98)
9 THE COMPLETE MATRIX TRILOGY (WB, $99.99)
10 MALLRATS (UNI, $29.98)

Is that SEVEN catalogue titles (eight if you include "Blood Diamond" since technically it isn't a Day-and-Date release) I see in the HD-DVD's Top Ten list? :eek:

I think 300 will appeal to the PS3 crowd so their buying will make it tough to slice out which duel format owners buy one or the other. I expect 300 to sell much better on BR than HD-DVD for this reason.

What you need to know is how may Duel format owners buy one versus the other and I just don't see how you slice off that piece of the pie.

Cheers,

Richard

Then we will never know, theres always an excuse for HD DVD, it hasnt had enough time, the PS3 crowd buys crappy movies so HD DVD cant get a fair shake etc. Ya know what, BD is outselling HD DVD, period, theyve been around for roughly the same time and Sony took the strategy of upping the price of the PS3 to help BD and its working better than Tosh selling less expensive standalone players. Its business. And so far Sony's strategy is working. Period. Dual format owners dont matter if there are a plethora of BD only owners gobbling up dual format discs.

We're about to find out end of july if people will pay $4 or $5 to get a lot of interactive extras. 300 sales should provide valuable insights on what highdef movie buyers really want.

What do you think? :D

I think there are a lot more PS3 owners who can buy '300' than HD DVD owners who can buy '300'.

Your hypothesis would only be viable if there were equal numbers of potential buyers for both formats.

DING, DING, DING, DING, DING, DING, DING, DING!!! :D

The only thing you should be dinging about settling for upconverted SD DVD's is the alarm that sounds damage control. Why venture into the HD cinema in your own home if youre willing to settle for SD DVD upconverted for a prolonged period of time.....sounds more like someone trying to justify their initial purchase to me, not having a revelation.

The funny thing is all the people that keep saying these numbers dont matter, every week where BD pulls farther ahead saying its a marathon.....if they dont matter and its a marathon then why even check right now if they dont matter....just wait until later, right?

Then we will never know, theres always an excuse for HD DVD, it hasnt had enough time, the PS3 crowd buys crappy movies so HD DVD cant get a fair shake etc. Ya know what, BD is outselling HD DVD, period, theyve been around for roughly the same time and Sony took the strategy of upping the price of the PS3 to help BD and its working better than Tosh selling less expensive standalone players. Its business. And so far Sony's strategy is working. Period. Dual format owners dont matter if there are a plethora of BD only owners gobbling up dual format discs.

When BD can "marginalize" HD DVD to something like 10-15% of the market and sustain that lead for a quarter and people are still talking about HD DVD making a comeback then you can whine.

Until then, with sales splits week to week of 70/30 or 60/40 you don't have any reason to crow about how great BD is doing.

Is that SEVEN catalogue titles (eight if you include "Blood Diamond" since technically it isn't a Day-and-Date release) I see in the HD-DVD's Top Ten list? :eek:

probably means the volume is insanely small, imo

When BD can "marginalize" HD DVD to something like 10-15% of the market and sustain that lead for a quarter and people are still talking about HD DVD making a comeback then you can whine.

Until then, with sales splits week to week of 70/30 or 60/40 you don't have any reason to crow about how great BD is doing.

I didnt crow, i even qualified my post with "SO FAR" not Sony has won. Thanks.

66/34
67/33
60/40

I think there are a lot more PS3 owners who can buy '300' than HD DVD owners who can buy '300'.

Your hypothesis would only be viable if there were equal numbers of potential buyers for both formats.

Dual format owners are a subset of a subset of a subset, they will make no difference in sales figures until there is a viable dual format player.

When BD can "marginalize" HD DVD to something like 10-15% of the market and sustain that lead for a quarter and people are still talking about HD DVD making a comeback then you can whine.

Is this the new goal post? It's getting hard to keep up with what it is these days.

probably means the volume is insanely small, imo

I agree, don't like the looks of King Arthur reappearing either.

1. Ghost Rider 100
2. PotC: DMC 90.46
3. Planet Earth Blu-ray 82.35
4. The Patriot 82.30
5. PotC: CotBP 80.00
6. Apocolypto 75.26
7. Casino Royale 75.05
8. Bridge to Terabithia 73.83
9. Blood Diamond HD DVD 70.10
10. Planet Earth HD DVD 56.94

Is this the new goal post? It's getting hard to keep up with what it is these days.

In my mind the goal post is Universal going neutral, that way I am able to get all the content on my player.

After that happens HD DVD can exist forever or not, doesn't matter to me.

I agree, don't like the looks of King Arthur reappearing either.

I know, that prolly why HMM wne tot year to date last week as to not embarrass both formats :(

Dual format owners are a subset of a subset of a subset, they will make no difference in sales figures until there is a viable dual format player.

I'm not so sure. I'm dual format! :D

I bet most single-format folk are PS3 gamers who've gotten into a bit of high def viewing because there aren't many decent games to buy.

I bet most people who paid $1,000+ for a BD standalone 6 months ago will have bought a $200 HD DVD player now.

I might be wrong, but I don't see the logic otherwise.

Steve W

PE BD outsold HDDVD one...

Blu-ray
* Flatliners (Sony)
* The Patriot (Extended Cut) (Sony)
* The Untouchables (Paramount)
* The Warriors: Ultimate Director's Cut (Paramount)

HD DVD
* Blood Diamond (Warner)
* The Untouchables (Paramount)
* The Warriors: Ultimate Director's Cut (Paramount)

PE BD outsold HDDVD one...

Yes, and its really quite shocking considering this will be the first time it does. As this is, what many consider to be, a show-off title for the format, I think it signifies the increased sales of Blu-ray players. This title was a hot seller on HD DVD when Toshiba was running their special, and now that BDA has their special, this title has been boosted on Blu-ray. Seems to me this is an excellent title to gauge player sales on a weekly basis (ie, this week it sold better on Blu-ray, so more Blu-ray players were sold than HD DVD players).

I may be reaching a bit, but its a good indicator.

I'm not so sure. I'm dual format! :D

I bet most single-format folk are PS3 gamers who've gotten into a bit of high def viewing because there aren't many decent games to buy.

I bet most people who paid $1,000+ for a BD standalone 6 months ago will have bought a $200 HD DVD player now.

I might be wrong, but I don't see the logic otherwise.

Steve W

There are around 300,000 HD DVD owners and that includes dual format people. The only reason that dual format would make a big difference now is if a bunch of dual format people had been leaning towards BD in their past purchases and are now suddenly going to lean HD DVD. I doubt that is the case since so many dual format releases favor the HD DVD side.

Is this the new goal post? It's getting hard to keep up with what it is these days.

I think that if you are being serious then there are several things that would essentially amount to HD DVD being marginalized in the format war;

1. Universal going neutral
2. rapidly deteroriating sales (we haven't see this despite predictions earlier this year that week volumes of HD DVD would be 20% or less of BD volumes)
3. No other CE involvement in the format into 2008.

That's where I stand on it anyway. As I've repeatedly said, I would be happy if BD won too, as long as they can get their act together with the same feature set that HD DVD has been delivering from day one.

So far, that's not the case.

The two lists we have sop far largely contradict each other.

Example, BD top 10 includes:

1 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
2 THE PATRIOT (SONY, $28.95)
3 GHOST RIDER (SONY, $38.96)
4 THE UNTOUCHABLES (PAR, $29.99)
5 CASINO ROYALE (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
6 APOCALYPTO (DIS, $34.99)
7 BLOOD DIAMOND (WB, $28.99)
8 BRIDGE TO TERABITHIA (DIS, $34.99)
9 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST (DIS, $34.99)
10 KING ARTHUR: DIRECTOR'S CUT (DIS, $29.99)

But the 2nd list has the top 8 BD titles:

1. Ghost Rider 100
2. PotC: DMC 90.46
3. Planet Earth Blu-ray 82.35
4. The Patriot 82.30
5. PotC: CotBP 80.00
6. Apocolypto 75.26
7. Casino Royale 75.05
8. Bridge to Terabithia 73.83


Can anyone explain this?


Steve W

The two lists we have sop far largely contradict each other.

Example, BD top 10 includes:

1 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
2 THE PATRIOT (SONY, $28.95)
3 GHOST RIDER (SONY, $38.96)
4 THE UNTOUCHABLES (PAR, $29.99)
5 CASINO ROYALE (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
6 APOCALYPTO (DIS, $34.99)
7 BLOOD DIAMOND (WB, $28.99)
8 BRIDGE TO TERABITHIA (DIS, $34.99)
9 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST (DIS, $34.99)
10 KING ARTHUR: DIRECTOR'S CUT (DIS, $29.99)

But the 2nd list has the top 8 BD titles:

1. Ghost Rider 100
2. PotC: DMC 90.46
3. Planet Earth Blu-ray 82.35
4. The Patriot 82.30
5. PotC: CotBP 80.00
6. Apocolypto 75.26
7. Casino Royale 75.05
8. Bridge to Terabithia 73.83


Can anyone explain this?


Steve W
Rentrak vs. Nielsen VideoScan

Yes, and its really quite shocking considering this will be the first time it does. As this is, what many consider to be, a show-off title for the format, I think it signifies the increased sales of Blu-ray players. This title was a hot seller on HD DVD when Toshiba was running their special, and now that BDA has their special, this title has been boosted on Blu-ray. Seems to me this is an excellent title to gauge player sales on a weekly basis (ie, this week it sold better on Blu-ray, so more Blu-ray players were sold than HD DVD players).

I may be reaching a bit, but its a good indicator.

And by a fairly substantial margin as well. . . .

Edit: so my answer makes more sense:

Then we will never know, theres always an excuse for HD DVD, it hasnt had enough time, the PS3 crowd buys crappy movies so HD DVD cant get a fair shake etc. Ya know what, BD is outselling HD DVD, period, theyve been around for roughly the same time and Sony took the strategy of upping the price of the PS3 to help BD and its working better than Tosh selling less expensive standalone players. Its business. And so far Sony's strategy is working. Period. Dual format owners dont matter if there are a plethora of BD only owners gobbling up dual format discs.

How is pointing out basic statistical analysis issues an excuse for HD-DVD. I can't help it if there is no way to isolate the question that was asked statistically.

I feel no need to justify anything. I said clear out that I figured 300 would sell better on BR than HD-DVD.

Maybe it will be more popular on HD-DVD for duel format users than BR and it is an excuse for BR for cripes sake hahaa.

Seriously, every post is not an attack on your precious format.

Cheers,

Richard

The two lists we have sop far largely contradict each other.

Example, BD top 10 includes:

1 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
2 THE PATRIOT (SONY, $28.95)
3 GHOST RIDER (SONY, $38.96)
4 THE UNTOUCHABLES (PAR, $29.99)
5 CASINO ROYALE (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
6 APOCALYPTO (DIS, $34.99)
7 BLOOD DIAMOND (WB, $28.99)
8 BRIDGE TO TERABITHIA (DIS, $34.99)
9 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST (DIS, $34.99)
10 KING ARTHUR: DIRECTOR'S CUT (DIS, $29.99)

But the 2nd list has the top 8 BD titles:

1. Ghost Rider 100
2. PotC: DMC 90.46
3. Planet Earth Blu-ray 82.35
4. The Patriot 82.30
5. PotC: CotBP 80.00
6. Apocolypto 75.26
7. Casino Royale 75.05
8. Bridge to Terabithia 73.83


Can anyone explain this?


Steve W

I noticed that too, they are from differenct sources but I am not sure if they have tracked closer in the past, anyone want to click back a few pages and check? ;)

Blood Diamond will top the HD DVD list, The Patriot will top the Blu-Ray list. However Planet Earth could come back again and be the number one title on both formats.

Looks like Planet Earth had a strong week on Blu-ray, but Ghost Rider still hit the top spot.

HD DVD stuggled again getting in two titles in the #9 and #10 spots, but at least they are still up at 50 and 70 respectively, not quite the disparity we've seen between #1 and #10 in recent weeks.

http://img182.imageshack.us/img182/9472/blurayrulesya1.png

Rentrak has always been very different than Nielson. Nielson is generally considered a more correct source.

Well, I was off on my percentage (again), but the Patriot on BD outsold Blood Diamond on HD DVD, so that is one thing I got right.

Yes, and its really quite shocking considering this will be the first time it does. As this is, what many consider to be, a show-off title for the format, I think it signifies the increased sales of Blu-ray players. This title was a hot seller on HD DVD when Toshiba was running their special, and now that BDA has their special, this title has been boosted on Blu-ray. Seems to me this is an excellent title to gauge player sales on a weekly basis (ie, this week it sold better on Blu-ray, so more Blu-ray players were sold than HD DVD players).

I may be reaching a bit, but its a good indicator.

It's also a title that costs $100 at retail. I don't know if it's a good indicator of anything. I said the same thing when it was selling well on HD DVD.

As I've repeatedly said, I would be happy if BD won too, as long as they can get their act together with the same feature set that HD DVD has been delivering from day one.

So far, that's not the case.

HD DVD has not been delivering since day one in the audio front anywhere near as well as Blu-ray has.

Well PIP is more important than audio in the HD-DVD realm, apparently.

Ok well, we have the figures for this week so, onto next week!

HD DVD

Billy Madison (Universal)
Dante's Peak (Universal)
The War (Universal)
The Wedding Date (Universal)

BD

Zip
Zero
Nada

My prediction...

64/36

The week after next

74/26

HD DVD has not been delivering since day one in the audio front anywhere near as well as Blu-ray has.

Yes, mandatory TrueHD support in all HD DVD players is certainly "lagging" since they don't waste huge amounts of disc space doing PCM as a band aid. :rolleyes:

Do you really think that 99% of consumers even know or care about uncompressed audio?

Whatever part of me would love to see HD DVD become a 2nd established format or even eventually dominate HD sales is exactly because of the pretentious attitude of console fans like you.

Well PIP is more important that audio apparently.

Since it is clear you aren't basing that on sales data, can I ask what makes that apparent?

I wasn't referring to the sales charts, I was referring to the feature set remarks.

Yes, mandatory TrueHD support in all HD DVD players is certainly "lagging" since they don't waste huge amounts of disc space doing PCM as a band aid. :rolleyes:

Do you really think that 99% of consumers even know or care about uncompressed audio?

Whatever part of me would love to see HD DVD become a 2nd established format or even eventually dominate HD sales is exactly because of the pretentious attitude of console fans like you.

Well, since at least 99% of consumers have yet to buy into the format maybe it doesn't matter ;)

It clearly doesn't matter to at least half of HD DVD consumers, since they cannot access it.

I wasn't referring to the sales charts, I was referring to the feature set remarks.

Ok cool, I thought you might have been referencing Blood Diamond, nm

I bet most single-format folk are PS3 gamers who've gotten into a bit of high def viewing because there aren't many decent games to buy.

Or people who decided they'd rather spend $500-600 on the best BD player rather than $1000 on something not as good.

People over emphasis the amount of gamers who are buying BD's and also pigeon-holing people into "gamer" and "film lover" boxes when most people enjoy a variety of entertainment sources. I'm sure a lot of PS3 gamers will pick up a few films but mainly the big titles like Casino Royale. There's not enough of them to make a difference, it's the film fans buying the discs in the majority of cases.

So what was the actual ratio for the week then, did it hold at 65/35?

Ok cool, I thought you might have been referencing Blood Diamond, nm

No prob :)

Yes, and its really quite shocking considering this will be the first time it does. As this is, what many consider to be, a show-off title for the format, I think it signifies the increased sales of Blu-ray players. This title was a hot seller on HD DVD when Toshiba was running their special, and now that BDA has their special, this title has been boosted on Blu-ray. Seems to me this is an excellent title to gauge player sales on a weekly basis (ie, this week it sold better on Blu-ray, so more Blu-ray players were sold than HD DVD players).

I may be reaching a bit, but its a good indicator.

This follows the typical pattern. When a title is on both formats, it tends to do a bit better (relatively) on HD DVD initially, but then Blu-ray does better on the tail. I have followed this on various titles, e.g., The Departed.

I hypothesize that this is because HD DVD has more early adopters but Blu-ray has a more normal customer base, and of course a larger one.

Or people who decided they'd rather spend $500-600 on the best BD player rather than $1000 on something not as good.

People over emphasis the amount of gamers who are buying BD's and also pigeon-holing people into "gamer" and "film lover" boxes when most people enjoy a variety of entertainment sources. I'm sure a lot of PS3 gamers will pick up a few films but mainly the big titles like Casino Royale. There's not enough of them to make a difference, it's the film fans buying the discs in the majority of cases.

Well with 300 and the future high profile releases I think that is really going to shift with a lot more 'gamers' becoming BD consumers.

That is when the 'Trojans' will come flooding out of the 'horse' so to speak. ;)

Rentrak has always been very different than Nielson. Nielson is generally considered a more correct source.

In the UK we have a chart for best selling singles. Something like 95% of all singles sold go towards the chart, and the others are meausered on a statistically weighted basis.

Clearly these figures disagreeing shows neither can be all that accurate.

I'm told that at least one doesn't include Wal-Mart sales, and that they account for 40% of the US DVD market. Is that correct?

I'm not meaning to rubbish these figures, or say they're not useful. But when we've had only a 1% 'swing', I'm not sure we can read them as that accurate.

If the figures are rounded up or down to the nearest 1%, last week BD could have had 65.49% and this week 65.51% and this is the result we'd get.

You can't measure figures that accurately when you're not counting 40% of the market.

Steve W

I predict 67/33 next week, 72/38 week after.

When does Rdjam show up to tell us how this is good for HD DVD?

In the UK we have a chart for best selling singles. Something like 95% of all singles sold go towards the chart, and the others are meausered on a statistically weighted basis.

Clearly these figures disagreeing shows neither can be all that accurate.

I'm told that at least one doesn't include Wal-Mart sales, and that they account for 40% of the US DVD market. Is that correct?

I'm not meaning to rubbish these figures, or say they're not useful. But when we've had only a 1% 'swing', I'm not sure we can read them as that accurate.

If the figures are rounded up or down to the nearest 1%, last week BD could have had 65.49% and this week 65.51% and this is the result we'd get.

You can't measure figures that accurately when you're not counting 40% of the market.

Steve W

Wal-mart is certainly not 40% of this market (HDM). Not saying your point is wrong, just the bit about wal-mart.

So what was the actual ratio for the week then, did it hold at 65/35?

66/34

Wal-mart is certainly not 40% of this market (HDM). Not saying your point is wrong, just the bit about wal-mart.

Do you offer any proof of this claim?

Well with 300 and the future high profile releases I think that is really going to shift with a lot more 'gamers' becoming BD consumers.

That is when the 'Trojans' will come flooding out of the 'horse' so to speak. ;)

I like your analogy.

'300' will be a better guide, I think. 'Blood Diamond' had a better spec, but the BD came first. Maybe us film watchers are just impatient?

Steve W

I like your analogy.

'300' will be a better guide, I think. 'Blood Diamond' had a better spec, but the BD came first. Maybe us film watchers are just impatient?

Steve W

Blood Diamond was not a good judge because of the delay on the HD DVD side.

IMHO Warner really screwed HD DVD on that aspect (for a change)

300 would be much better indicator but I still don't think it will matter.

Do you offer any proof of this claim?

No, that's why I said "I'm told...".

Read it at a link (either here or UK AV forums). I don't hold it up with any accuracy at all - which is why I was asking the question.

But I'm pretty sure Nielsen don't count Wal-Mart.

Anyone have a reliable link to that?

Anyway, my point is not "Don't read Nielsen".

My point is merely, in a week where there's been a swing so very small, I don't think there's much point reading much into it, other than that things are probably roughly the same as last week.

Steve W

Do you offer any proof of this claim?

Of course not, but since none of us have access to the data about actual sales and I follow this closely I think my guess is as good as anyone else's.

No, that's why I said "I'm told...".

Read it at a link (either here or UK AV forums). I don't hold it up with any accuracy at all - which is why I was asking the question.

But I'm pretty sure Nielsen don't count Wal-Mart.

Anyone have a reliable link to that?

Anyway, my point is not "Don't read Nielsen".

My point is merely, in a week where there's been a swing so very small, I don't think there's much point reading much into it, other than that things are probably roughly the same as last week.

Steve W

Hopefully one day soon we will get volumes and dollar amounts, but until then this is probably as good as we can do.

I predict 67/33 next week, 72/38 week after.

When does Rdjam show up to tell us how this is good for HD DVD?

Yep. All of those new $500 PS3s will most certainly have a large effect on the numbers.

1. Ghost Rider 100
2. PotC: DMC 90.46
3. Planet Earth Blu-ray 82.35
4. The Patriot 82.30
5. PotC: CotBP 80.00
6. Apocolypto 75.26
7. Casino Royale 75.05
8. Bridge to Terabithia 73.83
9. Blood Diamond HD DVD 70.10
10. Planet Earth HD DVD 56.94

Well, Blood Diamond being 8th on the list - the top HD DVD yet behind several BDs that have been on the market for quite a while - I think says it all about the state of the formats at the present.


When does Rdjam show up to tell us how this is good for HD DVD?

In a couple of days when he's crafted a theory about how the positive effects of releases are felt 3.5 weeks after release.

Blood Diamond was not a good judge because of the delay on the HD DVD side.

IMHO Warner really screwed HD DVD on that aspect (for a change)

300 would be much better indicator but I still don't think it will matter.

Blood Diamond was conflicted for several reasons:
-- the DVD was released some time ago, presumably lowering both formats (equally? who knows)
-- the Blu-ray was shipped a month ago
-- the HD DVD contains more of the customary interactive features for the lack of which Blu-ray titles have been delayed.

It is hardly a straight-up comparison.


BTW Warners feels that they are doing HD DVD favors, that appears to be their intent. They felt that the interactive stuff was worth the wait. I think that they are wrong, but that is their opinion.

Almost ironic that we're predicting sales of a certain MTV-style pseudo-historical action flick on the 300th page of this thread... :p

Recent weeks really represent a lull in both formats but especially Blu-ray, since Universal continues its catalog blitz (whatever it is worth).

I don't think the industry is watching very carefully in July, they know it is a slow home video month. They will be watching in the fall.

So the question is: what does this tell us about the fall?

Looking at the likely release schedule, I am guessing that Blu-ray will be hitting 80-20 in November.
-- do you agree with this?
-- what effect will this have on the format war?

I read some folks saying that HD DVD can continue indefinitely with a minority percentage, and I am wondering how true that really is. I think this is a critical issue.

Any thoughts?

I predict 67/33 next week, 72/38 week after.

When does Rdjam show up to tell us how this is good for HD DVD?

This weeks figures were supposed to reflect the 6/26 release wave from Universal according to him, wasn't it?

Hopefully one day soon we will get volumes and dollar amounts, but until then this is probably as good as we can do.

I have the total volumes through mid-March in a PDF.

This weeks figures were supposed to reflect the 6/26 release wave from Universal according to him, wasn't it?

His prediction was 60/40 iirc, he did succeed in getting the thread locked for a little bit, but I don't think anyone was buying the 'sales show up in the 2nd week' theory.

I have the total volumes through mid-March in a PDF.

I think I have seen most of those via bits dropped here and there about catalog title sales.

I hope we get more detailed data like that in the future and on a regular basis.

When does Rdjam show up to tell us how this is good for HD DVD?When he can somehow prove how 66% for Blu-ray is a "much higher" ratio for HD DVD than 65% for Blu-ray.

For posterity:
I will challenge you and state flat out here, that next week's numbers will show a much higher HD DVD ratio, reflecting these new titles.