When he can somehow prove how 66% for Blu-ray is a "much higher" ratio for HD DVD than 65% for Blu-ray.

For posterity:

No, next week not this week, sort of like 'Free Beer Tomorrow'

Here's the requisite weekly pie-chart pic:

http://i175.photobucket.com/albums/w145/columbine420/nielsen070806.jpg

Hey, don't let 'em get to you. Sure upconversion is good enough for them. The last couple months worth of HD-DVD releases are pretty much upconversion themselves. They're used to it. Why do you think Universal got rid of combos on their catalog titles? They don't need to put the same thing on the other side :D

ho ho ho, crap now it makes sense. After all I keep hearing from HD DVD fans how upconverted DVD's look almost as good as HD DVD's. :eek:

Ok well, we have the figures for this week so, onto next week!
HD DVD
Billy Madison (Universal)
Dante's Peak (Universal)
The War (Universal)
The Wedding Date (Universal)

BD
Zip
Zero
Nada

My prediction...
64/36
The week after next
74/26

- None of those 4 catalogs will crack the top 10 for HD-DVD, like Blood Diamond did this week. In other words, despite the 4 vs 0 appearance, don't automatically assume that HD-DVD's release slate for next week is stronger than this week. I predict Blood Diamond falls out of the top 10 (PE stays) and BD ends with 9 of the top 10 next week.

- Bigger issue: The PS3 price cut and associated Blu-ray promotions. This isn't totally reflected in the just-relesed numbers, which are through 7/8. Some places sortof had the price cut out there last week, but this past Monday Sony went official and the full promo and advertising hit everywhere (e.g. the AVS front page story 'Sony Denies PS3 Price Cut Rumors - Then Recants'). Logically, one would assume this has had a big effect, somewhat supported by the anecdotal evidence of Amazon's strong Blu-ray ranks this week due to its PS3/BD promos.

I haven't decided what to predict yet for next week, but it'll be over 70/30.

I haven't decided what to predict yet for next week, but it'll be over 70/30.

That is a bold prediction, I hadn't really considered the price break in my prediction...

I like it!

Looking at the likely release schedule, I am guessing that Blu-ray will be hitting 80-20 in November.
-- do you agree with this?
-- what effect will this have on the format war?

I read some folks saying that HD DVD can continue indefinitely with a minority percentage, and I am wondering how true that really is. I think this is a critical issue.

I agree that 80:20 looks possible for Q3, though probably not every week. While I'm sure that HD DVD's backers would be happy to continue on even with a minority percent of marketshare, I don't think retailers and studios will allow them to. We are already seeing this with the Blockbuster announcement, and Walmart and other B&M retailers have made it clear they have little interst in stocking both formats over the long haul. I honestly would not be suprised if we see more announcements prior to the holiday season, which could effectively end the war long before some are ready to give up.

Not saying it's a sure thing, just that I wouldn't be surpised. Anyways, at some point I expect studio and retailer moves to put an end to this, even if manufacturers were willing to keep fighting the good fight.

Recent weeks really represent a lull in both formats but especially Blu-ray, since Universal continues its catalog blitz (whatever it is worth).

I don't think the industry is watching very carefully in July, they know it is a slow home video month. They will be watching in the fall.

So the question is: what does this tell us about the fall?

Looking at the likely release schedule, I am guessing that Blu-ray will be hitting 80-20 in November.
-- do you agree with this?
-- what effect will this have on the format war?

I read some folks saying that HD DVD can continue indefinitely with a minority percentage, and I am wondering how true that really is. I think this is a critical issue.

Any thoughts?

I think that by sometime in September, Blu-ray will consistently be hitting 80/20 leads. When it gets close to that, the trend will reach "critical mass" & will start feeding on itself with more B&M retail locations making the decision to go Blu-ray only as far as which format movies they'll carry. And that will affect consumer decisions on which way to go.

In other words, pretty much more of the same. A big circle jerk over nothing.
Whoopee.
J

Look, the in-fighting between HD DVD supporters is getting ridiculous, you should not be calling out rdjam like that, imho it is uncalled for.


edit: I should change my name to Quickquote, or The Undeleter! :D

ho ho ho, crap now it makes sense. After all I keep hearing from HD DVD fans how upconverted DVD's look almost as good as HD DVD's. :eek:

Microsoft is conditioning its customer base to accept that 720 lines of resolution is plenty. And some folks are falling into line and that's the true mystery to me.

I think that by sometime in September, Blu-ray will consistently be hitting 80/20 leads. When it gets close to that, the trend will reach "critical mass" & will start feeding on itself with more B&M retail locations making the decision to go Blu-ray only as far as which format movies they'll carry. And that will affect consumer decisions on which way to go.

That's assuming that PS3 owners will continue buying titles AND that HD DVD hardware sales will remain static.

While I think it's possible that we will see 80/20 by year's end I don't think it's a likely scenario.

With no announced $399 or cheaper BD standalone how long do you think retailers are going to pin their hopes and dreams on an overpriced underselling game console to carry the next generation?

Microsoft is conditioning its customer base to accept that 720 lines of resolution is plenty. And some folks are falling into line and that's the true mystery to me.

Don't forget that bandwidth and disc space above what HD DVD can offer is completely unnecessary.

Look, the in-fighting between HD DVD supporters is getting ridiculous, you should not be calling out rdjam like that, imho it is uncalled for.


edit: I should change my name to Quickquote, or The Undeleter! :D

Actually, I own both formats.
J

Actually, I own both formats.
J

So do I. That doesn't mean I'm neutral.

That's assuming that PS3 owners will continue buying titles AND that HD DVD hardware sales will remain static.

While I think it's possible that we will see 80/20 by year's end I don't think it's a likely scenario.

With no announced $399 or cheaper BD standalone how long do you think retailers are going to pin their hopes and dreams on an overpriced underselling game console to carry the next generation?


standalones bd's are selling well, too. neither side has announced xmas pricing but i am pretty sure that there will be lower for both.

- None of those 4 catalogs will crack the top 10 for HD-DVD, like Blood Diamond did this week. In other words, despite the 4 vs 0 appearance, don't automatically assume that HD-DVD's release slate for next week is stronger than this week. I predict Blood Diamond falls out of the top 10 (PE stays) and BD ends with 9 of the top 10 next week.

- Bigger issue: The PS3 price cut and associated Blu-ray promotions. This isn't totally reflected in the just-relesed numbers, which are through 7/8. Some places sortof had the price cut out there last week, but this past Monday Sony went official and the full promo and advertising hit everywhere (e.g. the AVS front page story 'Sony Denies PS3 Price Cut Rumors - Then Recants'). Logically, one would assume this has had a big effect, somewhat supported by the anecdotal evidence of Amazon's strong Blu-ray ranks this week due to its PS3/BD promos.

I haven't decided what to predict yet for next week, but it'll be over 70/30.

Agreed.... plus on July 10th the Blockbuster news became reality for many people. Blu-ray player sales may have spiked this week a little now that people can officially rent Blu-ray movies in-store at Blockbuster and therefore some additional titles being bought as well.

That's assuming that PS3 owners will continue buying titles AND that HD DVD hardware sales will remain static.


I think the first assumption is a safe one. I would assume that the second assumption is wrong if by "static" you mean absolute number of discs sold. I think that the number of HD DVD disc units selling will continue to increase for some time. But what is MOST important is the RELATIVE percentage increase compared to the Blu-ray disc sales increase. If Blu-ray sales increase at a higher RATE then HD DVD sales, then the ratio will move toward 80/20. The question is how quick will that milestone be reached. I think sooner rather than later.

Actually, I own both formats.
J

So you support HD DVD?

So do I. That doesn't mean I'm neutral.
Well said!

That's assuming that PS3 owners will continue buying titles AND that HD DVD hardware sales will remain static.

While I think it's possible that we will see 80/20 by year's end I don't think it's a likely scenario.

With no announced $399 or cheaper BD standalone how long do you think retailers are going to pin their hopes and dreams on an overpriced underselling game console to carry the next generation?

How long do we have to wait to see the effect of the cheaper players?

HD DVD has these cut price players and there is not a single blip on the graph to show for it.

The price of the and availability media is more important than the price of the players.

Titles sell hardware. By titles I mean desirable titles. Lack of desirable titles means that a $250 HD DVD player is still too expensive.

I think we will see this play out at year's end, regardless of player pricing.

But for now it seems that we have gone from 60:40 to 65:35 for slow weeks. Getting close to 2:1. I wonder if HD DVD will ever win a week in 2007...

http://i175.photobucket.com/albums/w145/columbine420/nielsen070806.jpg

65:35

unchanged from the previous #s. Next week's prediction will move in BD's favor though.

Damn. I was off by 1% point again. Think that was the 3rd time in a row. Anyways, next weeks one will undoubtably swing in BD's favor. How much? Anyone's guess. :cool:

Microsoft is conditioning its customer base to accept that 720 lines of resolution is plenty. And some folks are falling into line and that's the true mystery to me.

Some people like HD Lite, for some SD DVD's are enough. I just don't fall into those categories which is why I buy/rent blu-ray whenever possible as I want the best I can get in my home.

How long do we have to wait to see the effect of the cheaper players?

HD DVD has these cut price players and there is not a single blip on the graph to show for it.

The price of the and availability media is more important than the price of the players.

Titles sell hardware. By titles I mean desirable titles. Lack of desirable titles means that a $250 HD DVD player is still too expensive.

I think we will see this play out at year's end, regardless of player pricing.

But for now it seems that we have gone from 60:40 to 65:35 for slow weeks. Getting close to 2:1. I wonder if HD DVD will ever win a week in 2007...

Well I think as soon as they start the buy 1 HD-DVD movie get 5 HD-DVD players free promo we might see software sales pick up. ;)

How long do we have to wait to see the effect of the cheaper players?

HD DVD has these cut price players and there is not a single blip on the graph to show for it.

The price of the and availability media is more important than the price of the players.

Titles sell hardware. By titles I mean desirable titles. Lack of desirable titles means that a $250 HD DVD player is still too expensive.

I think we will see this play out at year's end, regardless of player pricing.

But for now it seems that we have gone from 60:40 to 65:35 for slow weeks. Getting close to 2:1. I wonder if HD DVD will ever win a week in 2007...

Actually the HD DVD percentage has INCREASED compared to a month or two ago, so I'd say that we are seeing the effect of the hardware base increasing in HD DVD land.

Actually the HD DVD percentage has INCREASED compared to a month or two ago, so I'd say that we are seeing the effect of the hardware base increasing in HD DVD land.

If you look at the first post in the thread I am not sure that what you are saying actually shows up.

The weeklies have been pretty varied, but imho don't show a positive trend for HD DVD.

The SI numbers did slide one percentage point to HD DVD and then come back, are you referring to YTD only or something?

Microsoft is conditioning its customer base to accept that 720 lines of resolution is plenty. And some folks are falling into line and that's the true mystery to me.

For a downloaded rental 720p is fine, especially since many of us have 720p displays. In addition to that 1080p downloads would be way too big.

Braveheart 720p was 7.9 GB and it took two days to download. Interesting... I've seen Braveheart in HD and the Blu-Boys haven't :cool:

For a downloaded rental 720p is fine, especially since many of us have 720p displays. In addition to that 1080p downloads would be way too big.

Braveheart 720p was 7.9 GB and it took two days to download. Interesting... I've seen Braveheart in HD and the Blu-Boys haven't :cool:


2 days :confused:

Cant you do a partial download for a few hours & start streaming it?

Braveheart 720p was 7.9 GB and it took two days to download.

And Microsoft tells us downloads are the way to go.

2 days :confused:

Cant you do a partial download for a few hours & start streaming it?

Bravehart is long but it isn't that long ;)

For a downloaded rental 720p is fine, especially since many of us have 720p displays. In addition to that 1080p downloads would be way too big.

Braveheart 720p was 7.9 GB and it took two days to download. Interesting... I've seen Braveheart in HD and the Blu-Boys haven't :cool:

Two days! I can get a copy delivered from Amazon quicker than that!

This is even worse than my experiments with downloading, which have so far made me conclude that I want no part of it.

For a downloaded rental 720p is fine, especially since many of us have 720p displays. In addition to that 1080p downloads would be way too big.

Braveheart 720p was 7.9 GB and it took two days to download. Interesting... I've seen Braveheart in HD and the Blu-Boys haven't :cool:

720p 7.9GB (any clue as to what that might translate to in bitrate?) 2 days to dl and get to watch only once? What is it that you're bragging about?

I'm surprised the numbers were so close to last weeks.

...

When does Rdjam show up to tell us how this is good for HD DVD?

ROFL :)

Actually the HD DVD percentage has INCREASED compared to a month or two ago, so I'd say that we are seeing the effect of the hardware base increasing in HD DVD land.I think you're drinking the same pre-flavored dehydrated fruit drinks rdjam was earlier, because that's just not happening. Let's go to the numbahs!

Day Week YTD SI
04/08 62.4/37.6 69.4/30.6 56.4/43.6
04/15 61/39 69/31 57/43
04/22 52/48 68/32 57/43
04/29 71/29 68/32 58/42
05/06 60/40 68/32 57/43
05/13 62/38 68/32 57/43
05/20 58/42 67/33 57/43
05/27 69/31 67/33 58/42<--week player promotion started
06/03 61/39 67/33 59/41
06/10 66/34 67/33 59/41
06/17 64/36 67/33 59/41
06/24 70/30 67/33 59/41
07/01 65/35 67/33 60/40
07/08 66/34 67/33 60/40

Averaging out the months, we get the following percentages for BD:

April: 61.60
May: 62.25
June: 65.25
July (so far): 65.50

Looks to me like HD DVD had some of it's better numbers before the promotion started, and in the seven weeks that the deal has been going on, nothing has really happened, so little if any hardware effect. Not only that, the one time that HD DVD dominated in titles and had no exclusive competition, it was still outsold by almost 2:1, so no software effect. I see no evidence of your "INCREASE in percentages".

I think the first assumption is a safe one. I would assume that the second assumption is wrong if by "static" you mean absolute number of discs sold. I think that the number of HD DVD disc units selling will continue to increase for some time. But what is MOST important is the RELATIVE percentage increase compared to the Blu-ray disc sales increase. If Blu-ray sales increase at a higher RATE then HD DVD sales, then the ratio will move toward 80/20. The question is how quick will that milestone be reached. I think sooner rather than later.


Yup.

XBL downloads sapping off some of it's prospects for 720p HD-Lite for the sake of convenience can't be hurting. ;)

Averaging out the months, we get the following percentages for BD:

April: 61.60
May: 62.25
June: 65.25
July (so far): 65.50


Wow, it has seemed like things increasingly favor BD. At that rate, it will be regular 70/30s, if not 80/20s by the time Q4 starts...

I think you're drinking the same pre-flavored dehydrated fruit drinks rdjam was earlier, because that's just not happening. Let's go the numbahs!

Day Week YTD SI
04/08 62.4/37.6 69.4/30.6 56.4/43.6
04/15 61/39 69/31 57/43
04/22 52/48 68/32 57/43
04/29 71/29 68/32 58/42
05/06 60/40 68/32 57/43
05/13 62/38 68/32 57/43
05/20 58/42 67/33 57/43
05/27 69/31 67/33 58/42<--week player promotion started
06/03 61/39 67/33 59/41
06/10 66/34 67/33 59/41
06/17 64/36 67/33 59/41
06/24 70/30 67/33 59/41
07/01 65/35 67/33 60/40
07/08 66/34 67/33 60/40

Averaging out the months, we get the following percentages for BD:

April: 61.60
May: 62.25
June: 65.25
July (so far): 65.50

Looks to me like HD DVD had some of it's better numbers before the promotion started, and in the seven weeks that the deal has been going on, nothing has really happened, so little if any hardware effect. Not only that, the one time that HD DVD dominated in titles and had no exclusive competition, it was still outsold by almost 2:1, so no software effect.

Any evidence of your "INCREASE in percentages"?

You are right.

The period in question also had fewer overall Blu-ray titles than previously. HD DVD actually beat Blu-ray in the number of titles in Q2, largely because of the Universal catalog strategy (which we now see to have failed completely).

In a very real sense, the period May-June represents an optimal case for HD DVDm, but the numbers do not show an improvement.

2 days to download a low quality HD lite movie, lol yeah that is something worth bragging about. :eek:

I can just watch the upconverted DVD on my PS3 until a good quality HD version is released.

For a downloaded rental 720p is fine, especially since many of us have 720p displays. In addition to that 1080p downloads would be way too big.

Braveheart 720p was 7.9 GB and it took two days to download. Interesting... I've seen Braveheart in HD and the Blu-Boys haven't :cool:

So I guess I'm not allowed to own my 360 either since I like Blu-ray? :rolleyes:

The Live Video store is pretty cool, but I don't like renting. I prefer to own.

Originally Posted by JBlacklow
I think you're drinking the same pre-flavored dehydrated fruit drinks rdjam was earlier

Maybe MS/Toshiba can partner up with Crystal Light for some kind of promotion :p

720p 7.9GB (any clue as to what that might translate to in bitrate?) 2 days to dl and get to watch only once? What is it that you're bragging about?

8gb=8388608kb

172800 seconds in 2 days.

His transfer rate is 48 kbps, which is pretty slow...

Someone with a faster connection at 400kbps could download the thing in a bit under 6 hours.

Geez. You must be determined as hell to leave your 360 on for 2 days straight just to get a single movie downloaded.

Maybe MS/Toshiba can partner up with Crystal Light for some kind of promotion :p

OHHHHHH YEAAAAAAAH!

8gb=8388608kb

172800 seconds in 2 days.

His transfer rate is 48 kbps, which is pretty slow...

Someone with a faster connection at 400kbps could download the thing in a bit under 6 hours.

Geez. You must be determined as hell to leave your 360 on for 2 days straight just to get a single movie downloaded.

My experiences with the Live store in the past have shown that it never maxes out my 8gb cable connection. I had to wait nearly a full day for Superman returns (6.4gb IIRC). Now they have added tech that allows you to start watching once you've streamed a certain amount, so that my help.

Geez. You must be determined as hell to leave your 360 on for 2 days straight just to get a single movie downloaded.

I guess we now know the real reason for the infamous 360 Red Rings of Death.

I think there are a lot more PS3 owners who can buy '300' than HD DVD owners who can buy '300'.

Your hypothesis would only be viable if there were equal numbers of potential buyers for both formats.
That's a good point. A better test would be on the same format to release three versions :

Version A : With IME and all the extras but peak video bitrate capped at 23Mbps.
Version B : No IME and minimal extras but peak video bitrate capped at > 40Mbps.
Version C : Cheaper by $5 same video bitrate as Version A but no IME.

I think Version C will sell the most, followed by Version B, and then Version A would sell the least. The movie enthusiasts however will buy version B by a large margin. That's what I think.

If IME can be done with minimal effect on video bitrate, that would be great, but if you need to give up 5Mbps to insert a < 1Mbps secondary video stream, then I don't think that tradeoff is worth it.

Just thinking out loud.
----

Btw : 66:34, curious, only a 1% swing from last week --- catalog releases have less effect than I thought. Not only did the universal catalogs the previous week do nothing, the BD catalogs only moved the numbers minimally, Apocalypto has been released a lot longer, and Patriot showed up to make July 4th, with this important date, Patriot still only barely edged out Apocalypto --- that's like have an xmas catalog reelase during xmas not selling much more than a war movie.

What I think : It continues to look bad for catalogs --- these guys have to sell a lot more players to have catalogs sell better.

Also, this is the 1st wk Blu P.E. outsold Red P.E. 82:57, ( about 59:41 ). Curious what drove that large P.E. push. That's the Oprah effect, I guess.

For amazon watchers, note also that Ghost Rider and PoTC-DMC was nowhere on amazon (compared to either P.E.) and they outsold P.E. on the nielsen list. This highlights again that although Nielsen includes amazon, the B&M buying pattern does not match amazon buying pattern, and in fact, I suspect the only way this can happen is if a large fraction of P.E. total sales is happening only on amazon.

----
Disney also continued their heavy handed promotion of BD on HMM. The ad on page 6 reads like a BDA promotion handout.
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom071507/index.php?startpage=6

-----

I figured out what's needed to unlock the logjam of missing unit numbers. If some studio would just say how many disks they sold of a particular title in the release week (in ANY week) , we'd know the other unit sales of all the titles. Someone somewhere in some studio must be about to pound their chest for an important title. Why isn't this number leaked anywhere?

^^

Given the $100 mspr price at B&Ms, I can see that a lot of people would look at the $63 amazon price as a huge incentive to order online.

I've seen some of the other BD titles you mentioned go for $30 or $25 + gift cards & other similar prices at the B&M stores. Less incentive to order online. J6P is picking them up in-store.

----

Disney taking a few notes from sony? lol

Pirates have sold well and both are catalog.

Pirates have sold well and both are catalog.
Pirates are still quite new, DMC was only in the cinemas last year and was top grosser of 2006. I meant older catalogs --- like those Universal ones and Patriot.

Pirates are still quite new, DMC was only in the cinemas last year and was top grosser of 2006. I meant older catalogs --- like those Universal ones and Patriot.

Another point, not contrary just related with old/new catalog.

The Patriot (BD) and Blood Diamond (HD DVD) were both released at the same time. The Patriot sold more even though it was a much older title, and even though there were press releases from the HD DVD group about Blood Diamond and specifically its new next-gen features.

I guess my point is that popularity matters more than age or special features in catalog titles.

Looking at the increase in the Planet Earth BD ranking, I'm guessing a lot of new PS3 owners don't mind spending the console savings on movies. Way to go new Blu!! ;)

I predict 67/33 next week, 72/38 week after.

What, we're using Bush's new "fuzzy math" now with these numbers? :rolleyes: :D :p

What, we're using Bush's new "fuzzy math" now with these numbers? :rolleyes: :D :p

I'd laugh, but I've done the same thing before. :o

What, we're using Bush's new "fuzzy math" now with these numbers? :rolleyes: :D :p

Hell, I think I commented on it and didn't catch it. ;)

I think you're drinking the same pre-flavored dehydrated fruit drinks rdjam was earlier, because that's just not happening. Let's go to the numbahs!

Day Week YTD SI
04/08 62.4/37.6 69.4/30.6 56.4/43.6
04/15 61/39 69/31 57/43
04/22 52/48 68/32 57/43
04/29 71/29 68/32 58/42
05/06 60/40 68/32 57/43
05/13 62/38 68/32 57/43
05/20 58/42 67/33 57/43
05/27 69/31 67/33 58/42<--week player promotion started
06/03 61/39 67/33 59/41
06/10 66/34 67/33 59/41
06/17 64/36 67/33 59/41
06/24 70/30 67/33 59/41
07/01 65/35 67/33 60/40
07/08 66/34 67/33 60/40

Averaging out the months, we get the following percentages for BD:

April: 61.60
May: 62.25
June: 65.25
July (so far): 65.50

Looks to me like HD DVD had some of it's better numbers before the promotion started, and in the seven weeks that the deal has been going on, nothing has really happened, so little if any hardware effect. Not only that, the one time that HD DVD dominated in titles and had no exclusive competition, it was still outsold by almost 2:1, so no software effect. I see no evidence of your "INCREASE in percentages".

I was talking about the weekly numbers from a few months ago having improved from their low of 70/30 or worse, but yes you are correct, the SI numbers definitely have not showed an up trend since the promotion began.

8gb=8388608kb

172800 seconds in 2 days.

His transfer rate is 48 kbps, which is pretty slow...

Someone with a faster connection at 400kbps could download the thing in a bit under 6 hours.

Geez. You must be determined as hell to leave your 360 on for 2 days straight just to get a single movie downloaded.

Good info on the connection speed, but I was unclear with my question. I am actually interested in knowing what the Mbps of the encode is. I've got an idea since a long movie with a good transfer in 1080p with a high Mbps takes up about 25GB and since 720p should have about 44% the visual information as 1080p. 8GB/25GB= 32% means they probably don't use a high mbps encode, relative to what you get on either disc format. The info above contains some assumptions so if anyone has better numbers I'm interested to know more.

For a downloaded rental 720p is fine, especially since many of us have 720p displays. In addition to that 1080p downloads would be way too big.

Braveheart 720p was 7.9 GB and it took two days to download. Interesting... I've seen Braveheart in HD and the Blu-Boys haven't :cool:

Many of us here have large 1080p displays.

$6 crappy 720P downloads with super low bitrate VC1 that probably show tons of chroma noise, macroblocking, etc, are nothing to be bragging about.

I think you're drinking the same pre-flavored dehydrated fruit drinks rdjam was earlier, because that's just not happening. Let's go to the numbahs!

Day Week YTD SI
04/08 62.4/37.6 69.4/30.6 56.4/43.6
04/15 61/39 69/31 57/43
04/22 52/48 68/32 57/43
04/29 71/29 68/32 58/42
05/06 60/40 68/32 57/43
05/13 62/38 68/32 57/43
05/20 58/42 67/33 57/43
05/27 69/31 67/33 58/42<--week player promotion started
06/03 61/39 67/33 59/41
06/10 66/34 67/33 59/41
06/17 64/36 67/33 59/41
06/24 70/30 67/33 59/41
07/01 65/35 67/33 60/40
07/08 66/34 67/33 60/40

Averaging out the months, we get the following percentages for BD:

April: 61.60
May: 62.25
June: 65.25
July (so far): 65.50

Looks to me like HD DVD had some of it's better numbers before the promotion started, and in the seven weeks that the deal has been going on, nothing has really happened, so little if any hardware effect. Not only that, the one time that HD DVD dominated in titles and had no exclusive competition, it was still outsold by almost 2:1, so no software effect. I see no evidence of your "INCREASE in percentages".
WOW... that was just... the truth. Still painful to read though. Tally Ho. :D :D

Well I think as soon as they start the buy 1 HD-DVD movie get 5 HD-DVD players free promo we might see software sales pick up. ;)
You literally made me pee a little... Bravo man. Nice looking sales... great news for blu ray.

... Now they have added tech that allows you to start watching once you've streamed a certain amount, so that my help.

That only helps if you can finish downloading the movie before you finish watching the movie.

The stats for Braveheart suggest that the encoding averages about 6-7Mbps. How fast are peoples ISP link these days?

not trying to flamebait, but what do HD DVD supporters think after continually see this same 60ish to 30ish ratio pretty much every week?

Is there any realistic hope that these percentages (YTD and SI) will ever swing back in HD DVD's favor? With PS3 price drop and exclusive movies that will hopefully be released by Christmas, I personally do not see what HD DVD can do...

The BR releases have been lousy the past few weeks and it still wins handily...

The only card HD DVD can play is the 'lower the standalone price' and so far it has gotten them nowhere.

Next week's Nielsen numbers that reflect the PS3 price drop should be interesting (to put it mildly)...

Geez. You must be determined as hell to leave your 360 on for 2 days straight just to get a single movie downloaded.

Well, they do have a low power download mode so you can turn the thing off and let it keep downloading.

Though yes, these things are slow. I rarely use it, since HD downloads take so long (though 2 days is way beyond anything I've ever had to wait).

And yes, I'm a Blu-Ray person, not HD-DVD.

2 days :confused:

Cant you do a partial download for a few hours & start streaming it?

Yeah 2 days, it was one of those weird outliers. Usually they are done very quickly, like less than 6 hours but it must of been the first day it was available because Braveheart took forever.

Edit: Fyi all the other HD movies I've downloaded have been completed very quickly and I've downloaded 6.

very quickly, like less than 6 hours
Woaw, so if I decide at 8pm that I want to watch a movie, it will be done by 2am! ;)

Woaw, so if I decide at 8pm that I want to watch a movie, it will be done by 2am! ;)

Yeah, but I also noticed that when a downloaded is started affects the total time. If a download is started early in the morning then it is usually done very quickly, but if they are started in the evening the downloads tend to take longer.

not trying to flamebait, but what do HD DVD supporters think after continually see this same 60ish to 30ish ratio pretty much every week?


These figures are dismaying but this isn't the sort of thing that should generate alarm.

I found hardware sales figures to be more concerning.

When I read that as of... May? that the installed base for HD-DVD was a paltry 150,000 standalone players, I was very surprised. I was under the impression that between this and the 360 add on, there had to be closer to 600k HD-DVD players out there. The numbers were 1/2 that figure.

Until HD-DVD players can exceed ps3+bd standalone sales and do it frequently, they won't make a dent in the # of players sold, which will make it hard for more hd-dvd owners to buy titles.

Woaw, so if I decide at 8pm that I want to watch a movie, it will be done by 2am! ;)

Yeah. Not very useful if you want to catch the impulse viewers.

1. Ghost Rider BD 100.00
2. POTC: DMC BD 90.46
3. Planet Earth BD 82.35
4. The Patriot BD 82.30
5. POTC: COTBP BD 80.00
6. Apocalypto BD 75.26
7. Casino Royale BD 75.05
8. Bridge to Teribithia BD 73.83
9. Blood Diamond HD 70.10
10. Planet Earth HD 56.94

xx Black Snake Moan BD 46.38
xx Batman Begins HD 37.65
xx Untouchables HD 31.63
xx Blood Diamond BD 29.75
xx Black Snake Moan HD 29.74

Yeah. Not very useful if you want to catch the impulse viewers.

It would be if I wanted to download the SD version. Luckily 1080p downloads aren't available. Even if the 360 had a big enough HDD it would take forever to download a 22 GB movie.

I can update the dual release table with Black Snake Moan.

We didn't get the chart last week which was its release week, so second week will have to do.


Date Title BD/HD Source
092606 The Lake House 1.27 NV03
103106 Mission Impossible III 0.99 HMM05
110706 Nacho Libre 1.19 NV03
112806 Ant Bully 0.62 NV03
Superman Returns 1.14 HMM05
121206 World Trade Center 1.12 NV03
121906 Lady in the Water 1.05 NV03
013007 The Wicker Man 1.43 NV03
021307 The Departed 1.64 HMM06
022007 Babel 1.14 HMM05
032707 Happy Feet 1.65 HMM06
042407 Planet Earth 0.72 HMM06
050107 Dreamgirls 1.53 NVRW
051507 The Fountain 1.50 NVRW
052207 Flags of Our Fathers 1.39 NVRW
Letters from Iwo Jima 1.21 NVRW
060507 Norbit 2.04 NVRW
062607 Black Snake Moan 1.56 NVRW+1


HMM05: Data by Home Media Magazine as of May 27, 2007
HMM06: Data by Home Media Magazine as of June 24, 2007
NV03: Data from Nielsen VideoScan as of March 18, 2007
NVRW: Data based on release week Nielsen VideoScan figures
NWRW+1: Data based on week after release, Nielsen VideoScan figures

It would be if I wanted to download the SD version. Luckily 1080p downloads aren't available. Even if the 360 had a big enough HDD it would take forever to download a 22 GB movie.

Downloads are off-topic.

Downloads are off-topic.

The past few pages everyone had been talking about downloads, but back to sales ratios :cool:

I predict 67/33 next week, 72/38 week after.

When does Rdjam show up to tell us how this is good for HD DVD?
72/38 ?? Need I say anything at all? ;)

Well, to admit that you were completely wrong would be a start.

Downloads are off-topic.

please see here

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=11026427&&#post11026427

I think you're drinking the same pre-flavored dehydrated fruit drinks rdjam was earlier, because that's just not happening. Let's go to the numbahs!

Day Week YTD SI
04/08 62.4/37.6 69.4/30.6 56.4/43.6
04/15 61/39 69/31 57/43
04/22 52/48 68/32 57/43
04/29 71/29 68/32 58/42
05/06 60/40 68/32 57/43
05/13 62/38 68/32 57/43
05/20 58/42 67/33 57/43
05/27 69/31 67/33 58/42<--week player promotion started
06/03 61/39 67/33 59/41
06/10 66/34 67/33 59/41
06/17 64/36 67/33 59/41
06/24 70/30 67/33 59/41
07/01 65/35 67/33 60/40
07/08 66/34 67/33 60/40


JM is correct.

One can see that, overall, HD DVD has been steadily improving it's percentage of the sales since the start of the year.

Interestingly - since you want to look at them since only the start of the "Free Movies" promotion - what you are actually drawing attention to is the fact that the free movies have changed the split from a pretty consistent 58/42 or 57/43 split to something less.

But more importantly, this is counting the free movies that may not have been purchased. However, since the 69/31 at the start of the promotion, the trading is now at 66/34, so techinically HD DVD, as JM says, has still gained overall.

Well, to admit that you were completely wrong would be a start.

+1

;)

Version A : With IME and all the extras but peak video bitrate capped at 23Mbps.
Version B : No IME and minimal extras but peak video bitrate capped at > 40Mbps.
Version C : Cheaper by $5 same video bitrate as Version A but no IME.

I think Version C will sell the most, followed by Version B, and then Version A would sell the least. The movie enthusiasts however will buy version B by a large margin. That's what I think.
You really like MPEG2, 'ey? Seriously, we need some controlled A/B's to get rid of this high bitrate BS.

Also, this is the 1st wk Blu P.E. outsold Red P.E. 82:57, ( about 59:41 ). Curious what drove that large P.E. push. That's the Oprah effect, I guess.

For amazon watchers, note also that Ghost Rider and PoTC-DMC was nowhere on amazon (compared to either P.E.) and they outsold P.E. on the nielsen list. This highlights again that although Nielsen includes amazon, the B&M buying pattern does not match amazon buying pattern, and in fact, I suspect the only way this can happen is if a large fraction of P.E. total sales is happening only on amazon.
I suspect that BOTH of those observations are actually the result of them being free titles taken up by some buyers of BD players in the current promo.

I suspect that BOTH of those observations are actually the result of them being free titles taken up by some buyers of BD players in the current promo.

Which promo offers free Ghost Rider and/or PotC?

I suspect that BOTH of those observations are actually the result of them being free titles taken up by some buyers of BD players in the current promo.
Have to kudo BD for arranging to count freebies as sales.

Well, to admit that you were completely wrong would be a start.
Gosh darn it, I admit that I was wrong about it being closer to 61/39 this week :)

However, I note it wasn't 70/30 as some predicted, either. HD DVD pretty much held very close to last week.

My only point last week was that since the releases launch at the end of the week (Friday) and Nielsen's week ends on Sunday, that most of the orders actually paid and shipped in those first 3 days are likely to be mostly the pre-orders that were previously built up. The rest of the counter sales (for those newly released titles) not made in the first three days after release, would show up in the folowing week's sales.

So since the first three days' sales are reported on the following Friday, the rest of the sales would show a full week later. Hopefully I've expressed the concept more clearly this time around...

It'll be interesting to see where the numbers fall back to when the BD disc promo ends...

JM is correct.

One can see that, overall, HD DVD has been steadily improving it's percentage of the sales since the start of the year.Oh. My. Gawd. Is anyone else seeing this? Because I'm seeing him saying that Blu-ray's rising market share somehow translates to HD DVD improving it's percentage.
Interestingly - since you want to look at them since only the start of the "Free Movies" promotion - what you are actually drawing attention to is the fact that the free movies have changed the split from a pretty consistent 58/42 or 57/43 split to something less.Ah, well, I see you haven't lost your failure to grasp the obvious. I specifically referred to the player promotion, so you are essentially flat-out lying about what I said. Not only that, you're claiming now that a 58/42 percentage in Blu-ray's favor is higher (for HD) than Blu-ray's 60-70& market share.
But more importantly, this is counting the free movies that may not have been purchased. However, since the 69/31 at the start of the promotion, the trading is now at 66/34, so techinically HD DVD, as JM says, has still gained overall.Not only were they outsold by more than 69/31 on one of those weeks, the average monthly percentage of HD DVD sales has done nothing but fall.

Seriously: Bizarro Superman speak less opposite phrases than you do.

- weekly Nielsen figures are posted

- rdjam posts some logic-free statements

- other members call BS on rdjam

- rdjam sees an opening and reports all posts

- a mod locks the thread

Do I see a Friday pattern here? :)

Ah, well, I see you haven't lost your failure to grasp the obvious. I specifically referred to the player promotion, so you are essentially flat-out lying about what I said.

Seriously: Bizarro Superman speak less opposite phrases than you do.
With respect, in the first week of the "free disc" player promotion, BD managed a very healthy 69/31 percentage. What I am commenting on is that todays and last weeks numbers (indeed, the average of all weeks since 5/27) have been better than this 69/31.

What I meant in my post is that you (perhaps unintentionally) brought this to my attention with your post...

Gosh darn it, I admit that I was wrong about it being closer to 61/39 this week :)

However, I note it wasn't 70/30 as some predicted, either. HD DVD pretty much held very close to last week.


My only point last week was that since the releases launch at the end of the week (Friday) and Nielsen's week ends on Sunday, that most of the orders actually paid and shipped in those first 3 days are likely to be mostly the pre-orders that were previously built up.Sorry, there's more than enough evidence that this wasn't your claim last week. Why you feel the urgent need to draw this attention to you is beyond me.
The rest of the counter sales (for those newly released titles) not made in the first three days after release, would show up in the folowing week's sales.

So since the first three days' sales are reported on the following Friday, the rest of the sales would show a full week later. Hopefully I've expressed the concept more clearly this time around...Quite, and as this week, and most weeks of the year, have proven, you're still completely wrong with this "week later" theory. Do you really want me to post how wrong you are again? Because the only person that believed you last time was, well, you.

- weekly Nielsen figures are posted

- rdjam posts some logic-free statements

- other members call BS on rdjam

- rdjam sees an opening and reports all posts

- a mod locks the thread

Do I see a Friday pattern here? :)Yes. I suspect it's a desire of his...

- weekly Nielsen figures are posted

- rdjam posts some logic-free statements

- other members call BS on rdjam

- rdjam sees an opening and reports all posts

- a mod locks the thread

Do I see a Friday pattern here? :)
I don't think that that is quite fair Grubert. I'm participating in a perfectly reasonable conversation here. I hardly ever participate in this thread at all, let alone on a Friday, and in fact last Friday is the first time I've participated in this thread at all in months.

I think it should be quite easy for us all to practice some restraint, no? Anyway, I've given my thoughts, so I'll leave the discussion before anyone breaks any rules...

With respect, in the first week of the "free disc" player promotion, BD managed a very healthy 69/31 percentage. Uh, earth to rdjam:

THE PROMOTION REFERS TO THE PLAYERS NOT THE DISCS.

*Cough*.

What I am commenting on is that todays and last weeks numbers (indeed, the average of all weeks since 5/27) have been better than this 69/31.You mean, exceept for the week ending 6/24 where the ratio was 70:30?

Really, is anyone else seeing this? Am I the only one reading these statements immediately following the evidence that he's wrong?

not trying to flamebait, but what do HD DVD supporters think after continually see this same 60ish to 30ish ratio pretty much every week?

Is there any realistic hope that these percentages (YTD and SI) will ever swing back in HD DVD's favor? With PS3 price drop and exclusive movies that will hopefully be released by Christmas, I personally do not see what HD DVD can do...

The BR releases have been lousy the past few weeks and it still wins handily...

The only card HD DVD can play is the 'lower the standalone price' and so far it has gotten them nowhere.

Next week's Nielsen numbers that reflect the PS3 price drop should be interesting (to put it mildly)...
It looks like those wanting to get in on that $100 price cut for the 60GB PS3 had better act fast, as it seems that it's going to be a case of once they're gone they're gone. That's according to SCEE President David Reeves, who told GamesIndustry.biz that Sony would no longer be offering the 60GB PS3 in the US once the existing stock runs out -- something he expects to happen "by the end of July." So it looks like there ain't any more cheap PS3's left for christmas, or if there is, well then it would look like serious trouble for $ony.

It looks like those wanting to get in on that $100 price cut for the 60GB PS3 had better act fast, as it seems that it's going to be a case of once they're gone they're gone. That's according to SCEE President David Reeves, who told GamesIndustry.biz that Sony would no longer be offering the 60GB PS3 in the US once the existing stock runs out -- something he expects to happen "by the end of July." So it looks like there ain't any more cheap PS3's left for christmas, or if there is, well then it would look like serious trouble for $ony.

Nothing prevents them from slashing the 80gb model down to $500, which I suspect they will do. They should save some cost on the removal of the EE & using the 65nm chip, which should offset the 20gb increase in hard drive space.

You're my hero rdjam, fighting the good fight against incredible odds and hostile forces. Keep up the good work! :)

- weekly Nielsen figures are posted

- rdjam posts some logic-free statements

- other members call BS on rdjam

- rdjam sees an opening and reports all posts

- a mod locks the thread

Do I see a Friday pattern here? :)

I note that there have been a ton of predictions in this thread over the last couple pages, but this one is probably the most accurate of all! ;)

Uh, earth to rdjam:

Quote:
"What I am commenting on is that todays and last weeks numbers (indeed, the average of all weeks since 5/27) have been better than this 69/31. "

You mean, exceept for the week ending 6/24 where the ratio was 70:30?

Really, is anyone else seeing this? Am I the only one reading these statements immediately following the evidence that he's wrong?

Well just on this statement I believe he is correct. I believe he is saying just for the last two weeks higher that 69/31 and the AVERAGE since 5/27 is higher than 69/31.

As for the rest, it makes my head hurt too much. :D

You're my hero rdjam, fighting the good fight against incredible odds and hostile forces. Keep up the good work! :)

The problem is that we are all fighting the wrong battles.

The issue actually is: will we have an HDM format or not?

The issue is not: which of two virtually identical formats will we have?

When I realize that the exact same byte streams (with inessential tweaks) are getting copied onto two different disk structures, and that the format war is over which kind of disk structure we are going to have, I realize how crazy this whole thing is.

Two years ago I posted here that Sony and Toshiba should just flip a coin and spit the royalties. I wish they had.

could we all get back on topic please?

challenge the info in the post: not the poster...

Thanks :)

Two years ago I posted here that Sony and Toshiba should just flip a coin and spit the royalties. I wish they had.

And if the coin flipped against Sony and the BDA would you expect them to take their BD kite and go home? Of course not, they've invested too much into this to back down. But everyone expects Toshiba and the HD-DVD Forum to just bow down now and let Sony have the potentially lucrative HD market all to itself just because they have a 2:1 sales advantage over LESS THAN ONE PERCENT of HD home video sales? This war is basically two fleas fighting over the tip of a big sleeping dog's hair strain. Until the dog (J6P) is awake and pays attention to the fleas this war hasn't even really begun in earnest! That's bad news for the format that is more expensive to manufacture and is subsidized by a single company to the tune of several hundreds of millions of dollars. And we're not talking about the format that can use existing DVD lines to manufacture its discs. :rolleyes:

Here's the requisite weekly pie-chart pic:

http://i175.photobucket.com/albums/w145/columbine420/nielsen070806.jpg
http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/170/neilsonhdmarketsharejunwh9.jpg
Yes, we have this run away sales lead for BD, growing every week.

And if the coin flipped against Sony and the BDA would you expect them to take their BD kite and go home? Of course not, they've invested too much into this to back down. But everyone expects Toshiba and the HD-DVD Forum to just bow down now and let Sony have the potentially lucrative HD market all to itself just because they have a 2:1 sales advantage over LESS THAN ONE PERCENT of HD home video sales? This war is basically two fleas fighting over the tip of a big sleeping dog's hair strain. Until the dog (J6P) is awake and pays attention to the fleas this war hasn't even really begun in earnest! That's bad news for the format that is more expensive to manufacture and is subsidized by a single company to the tune of several hundreds of millions of dollars. And we're not talking about the format that can use existing DVD lines to manufacture its discs. :rolleyes:

Naturally I meant that all parties would have agreed in advance to follow the coin.

More seriously, you are confusing a few points. We are not ready in the adoption cycle for "J6P" (the middle adopters), we are stuck just after the early adopters.
These are the folks with reasonably expensive investments in gear and collections but who just don't want to get burned by buying the wrong format. That is the problem.

As to your comments about manufacturing etc., these were last year's arguments I think. I have every confidence that whichever format wins the format war will be able to meet the manufacturing, QA, and pricing requirements of the marketplace.

I suspect that BOTH of those observations are actually the result of them being free titles taken up by some buyers of BD players in the current promo.I don't know where you come up with some of this stuff. There is no basis in reality for your claim and looks like you came up with it to try to help HD DVD. It would be better to stick to real things. If you think people were getting either of these 2 titles free, please tell us where and who was offering those specific titles free.
My only point last week was that since the releases launch at the end of the week (Friday) and Nielsen's week ends on Sunday, that most of the orders actually paid and shipped in those first 3 days are likely to be mostly the pre-orders that were previously built up. The rest of the counter sales (for those newly released titles) not made in the first three days after release, would show up in the folowing week's sales.I'm not sure where this came from either given how long you have been around here. I would normally assume you know that movies come out on Tuesdays, so I'm not sure what this claim about Friday is. Even if you were talking about places that ship early that would be the week before a title's official release and so your claim would have been that the biggest effect would come in data for the week a title was released, not the week after that. There is nothing here to support your claim from before about there being a lag until the data that is for a week after their official releases. I can't think of a title other than Planet Earth that has done better in a week later than its release week based on the data I've seen and I'm not even sure about PE (and it might have been when it was shown again on DiscoveryHD).
So since the first three days' sales are reported on the following Friday, the rest of the sales would show a full week later. Hopefully I've expressed the concept more clearly this time around...You've expressed it clearly enough to show that you were confused about this Friday thing and that you seem to think the biggest week for a title is its official release week, which is what other people were saying.

To recap, HD DVD had a lot more releases on June 26th (a Tuesday). The data we got on July 6th was for the week ending July 1st, which was the week those titles were released. Their biggest effect would normally be for that week of July 1st (the data we get on July 6th) even though they aren't released until Tuesday of the week, and not for the week ending July 8th (the data we got today) as you were claiming last week.
Interestingly - since you want to look at them since only the start of the "Free Movies" promotion - what you are actually drawing attention to is the fact that the free movies have changed the split from a pretty consistent 58/42 or 57/43 split to something less.What "Free Movies" promotion are you talking about? The one where when people bought an HD-A2 and one of the Matrix box sets they got 2 free HD DVDs, or some other one?

To be clear in case it wasn't to you, the data we got today was for the week ending July 8th, before the PS3 drop in price and promotion on Amazon.

--Darin

1. Ghost Rider BD 100.00
2. POTC: DMC BD 90.46
3. Planet Earth BD 82.35
4. The Patriot BD 82.30
5. POTC: COTBP BD 80.00
6. Apocalypto BD 75.26
7. Casino Royale BD 75.05
8. Bridge to Teribithia BD 73.83
9. Blood Diamond HD 70.10
10. Planet Earth HD 56.94

xx Black Snake Moan BD 46.38
xx Batman Begins HD 37.65
xx Untouchables HD 31.63
xx Blood Diamond BD 29.75
xx Black Snake Moan HD 29.74Does this indicate that The Untouchables sold better on HD DVD than on Blu-ray, or do we not have enough data to know whether it was at 31.63 or higher for Blu-ray (given that the xx entries are often derived)?

--Darin

Does this indicate that The Untouchables sold better on HD DVD than on Blu-ray, or do we not have enough data to know whether it was at 31.63 or higher for Blu-ray (given that the xx entries are often derived)?

--Darin

I was wondering the same thing...

Do you hear that ? That is the sound of straws being grasped at...

Nothing prevents them from slashing the 80gb model down to $500, which I suspect they will do. They should save some cost on the removal of the EE & using the 65nm chip, which should offset the 20gb increase in hard drive space.

Word on the street is that the 80 gig hard drive is actually cheaper for Sony than the 60 gig one...so there's actually nothing to offset if that holds true (and more support for the notion they'll just drop the 80 gig to 499 once the 60s are cleared out).

That and well, there's no way the only SKU will be a PS3 with Motorstorm packed in.

I would like to point out the gap in understanding between some of us.

rdjam is using YTD numbers to say that HD DVD is improving overall, the rest of us are looking at the weeklies and SI and see that HD DVD isn't improving

Also, the thing we want rdjam to admit to being wrong about is the delayed effect that releases have on the sales ratio, he claimed last week that it was the 2nd week that showed the increase and most everyone disagreed, looks like the numbers do not bear that theory again this week.

FWIW I enjoy the spirited intellectual debate as long as it stays civil and doesn't completely ignore valid points. I also really enjoy the aggressively optimistic predictions from both sides about the next week's numbers.

Here is a repost of my predictions for next week


Ok well, we have the figures for this week so, onto next week!

HD DVD

Billy Madison (Universal)
Dante's Peak (Universal)
The War (Universal)
The Wedding Date (Universal)

BD

Zip
Zero
Nada

My prediction...

64/36

The week after next

74/26

edit: Just because I like overly optimistic predictions doesn't mean I make them myself, at least not next week with a 4/0 release advantage.

You're my hero rdjam, fighting the good fight against incredible odds and hostile forces. Keep up the good work! :)
:D Thanks - Much appreciated! :)

For next week I predict 71:29. 5% swing towards BD. I'm citing the ps3 price cut effect & the amazon bundling effect (pushing memento & RE pretty high in ranking for the entire week, averaging #2 -#5).

Regarding the universal releases, IIRC, "The wedding" was reviewed to have terrible PQ, while the other three movies were decent catalog movies.

You BD cheerleaders make me laugh. BD outsells HD 6x% to 3x% each week, and you are beating your chest. What does that actually say about the format? Nothing.

Standard DVD outsells BD and HD 9x% to 1x% every day. Do you have DVD owners gloating? Does that say anything about whether or not DVD is better than BD or HD?

Heck...there are more BD players out there. Thats ALL these numbers say. OFCOURSE BD will sell more every week. What's with the smack talking?

Although I don't see any perfect way to compare the first week for Blood Diamond on Blu-ray to that for HD DVD, I think we can see some indications from the data for each respective week.

Blood Diamond on Blu-ray was released on June 5th and the data for its first week was posted on June 15th in this thread. Here is a link to that:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10797841&&#post10797841

The data was:
1. Appocolypto 100
2. POTC: DMC 98.55
3. POTC: CBP 84.33
4. Planet Earth HD DVD 82.27
5. Norbit BD 77.78
6. Blood Diamond 74.95
7. Planet Earth BD 62.17
8. The Messengers 51.05
9. Casino Royale 44.44
10. Letters from Iwo Jima BD 38.65
...
Blu-ray

1. Appocolypto 100
2. POTC: DMC 98.55
3. POTC: CBP 84.33
4. Norbit BD 77.78
5. Blood Diamond 74.95

HD DVD

1. Planet Earth 100
2. Norbit 46.41
3. Ultimate Matrix 33.46
4. Letters from Iwo Jima 31.67
5. Complete Matrix 29.30I think Batman Begins is a good one to try as an anchor given how long it has been out and how it continues to sell pretty well, but one thing we may notice from the data is that Batman Begins couldn't have been higher that 29.3 on the HD DVD side. As a starter, let's give it the benefit of the doubt and assume it was right there with the Complete Matrix at the end of that list and sold the same that week as the most recent week. Compared to Blood Diamond on Blu-ray it would have sold:

.8227 * .2930 / .7495 = .322

or looking at the other way, Blood Diamond sold 3.1 times as many as Batman Begins, or higher (since we gave BB the benefit of the doubt that it wasn't lower).

Now we get to the most recent week where the data is:
1. Ghost Rider BD 100.00
2. POTC: DMC BD 90.46
3. Planet Earth BD 82.35
4. The Patriot BD 82.30
5. POTC: COTBP BD 80.00
6. Apocalypto BD 75.26
7. Casino Royale BD 75.05
8. Bridge to Teribithia BD 73.83
9. Blood Diamond HD 70.10
10. Planet Earth HD 56.94

xx Black Snake Moan BD 46.38
xx Batman Begins HD 37.65
xx Untouchables HD 31.63
xx Blood Diamond BD 29.75
xx Black Snake Moan HD 29.74That one is easier since we have the data for both. Blood Diamond on HD DVD sold 1.86 times as many copies as Batman Begins for the first week.

To recap.
BD on BD sold 3.1 times BB on HD DVD or more in the first week out.
BD on HD DVD sold 1.86 times BB on HD DVD in the first week out.

Now maybe the sales for BB were totally different between the two weeks, but my suspicion is that time to market and Blu-ray trumped extras and HD DVD, at least for the first week out there.

I see that I could run the same analysis with Planet Earth on HD DVD and the HD DVD of Blood Diamond would fair better than the Blu-ray version of Blood Diamond, but I think we've seen a drop in sales for PE on HD DVD in the weeks between. If the Blu-ray version of Planet Earth was used as the anchor with assumed consistent sales then the Blu-ray version of Blood Diamond would come out better than the HD DVD version for their first weeks. I think the rankings for Apocalypto also support that the Blu-ray version of Blood Diamond likely sold more copies in its first week than the HD DVD version in its first week, given that the Blu-ray version was competing against Apocalypto in its 3rd week and the HD DVD was competing with it in its 7th week (where sales would normally have fallen off a reasonable amount).

And if I screwed up the math, somebody please tell me. :)

--Darin

Although I don't see any perfect way to compare the first week for Blood Diamond on Blu-ray to that for HD DVD, I think we can see some indications from the data for each respective week.

Blood Diamond on Blu-ray was released on June 5th and the data for its first week was posted on June 15th in this thread. Here is a link to that:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10797841&&#post10797841

The data was:
I think Batman Begins is a good one to try as an anchor given how long it has been out and how it continues to sell pretty well, but one thing we may notice from the data is that Batman Begins couldn't have been higher that 29.3 on the HD DVD side. As a starter, let's give it the benefit of the doubt and assume it was right there with the Complete Matrix at the end of that list and sold the same that week as the most recent week. Compared to Blood Diamond on Blu-ray it would have sold:

.8227 * .2930 / .7495 = .322

or looking at the other way, Blood Diamond sold 3.1 times as many as Batman Begins, or higher (since we gave BB the benefit of the doubt that it wasn't lower).

Now we get to the most recent week where the data is:
That one is easier since we have the data for both. Blood Diamond on HD DVD sold 1.86 times as many copies as Batman Begins for the first week.

To recap.
BD on BD sold 3.1 times BB on HD DVD or more in the first week out.
BD on HD DVD sold 1.86 times BB on HD DVD in the first week out.

Now maybe the sales for BB were totally different between the two weeks, but my suspicion is that time to market and Blu-ray trumped extras and HD DVD, at least for the first week out there.

I see that I could run the same analysis with Planet Earth on HD DVD and the HD DVD of Blood Diamond would fair better than the Blu-ray version of Blood Diamond, but I think we've seen a drop in sales for PE on HD DVD in the weeks between. If the Blu-ray version of Planet Earth was used as the anchor with assumed consistent sales then the Blu-ray version of Blood Diamond would come out better than the HD DVD version for their first weeks. I think the rankings for Apocalypto also support that the Blu-ray version of Blood Diamond likely sold more copies in its first week than the HD DVD version in its first week, given that the Blu-ray version was competing against Apocalypto in its 3rd week and the HD DVD was competing with it in its 7th week (where sales would normally have fallen off a reasonable amount).

And if I screwed up the math, somebody please tell me. :)

--Darin

I like your theory, and without actual sales figures I cannot think of a better way to do it.

That being said, we have no idea if BB is selling roughly the same amount of titles each week, it could vary greatly, we just don't know.

So while it is easy for me to assume that BD sold much better on BD due to the larger install base and earlier release, we won't know for sure until we see real sales data later.

That's assuming that PS3 owners will continue buying titles

Why would PS3 owners suddenly stop? Unless every PS3 blows up on the same day it's unlikely it would make a difference what player someone used.

I think this weeks PS3 price drop and 5/6/7 disc promo is going to have a big effect, It might be in next weeks numbers or it could be sometime down the line when we have a big exclusive released, say Spiderman 3

Why would PS3 owners suddenly stop? Unless every PS3 blows up on the same day it's unlikely it would make a difference what player someone used.

I think this weeks PS3 price drop and 5/6/7 disc promo is going to have a big effect, It might be in next weeks numbers or it could be sometime down the line when we have a big exclusive released, say Spiderman 3

I think things are going to heat up at the end of the month with 300 followed by the flood of games and movies into the holidays.

Should be a very active Q4, my wallet is already shaking in fear.

I like your theory, and without actual sales figures I cannot think of a better way to do it. That being said, we have no idea if BB is selling roughly the same amount of titles each week, it could vary greatly, we just don't know.

So while it is easy for me to assume that BD sold much better on BD due to the larger install base and earlier release, we won't know for sure until we see real sales data later.

I doubt Best Buy is moving too many HD-DVD "Blood Diamond" units given its outrageous $34.95 price (for a non-combo disc)! :eek: Seriously, "BD" sells for $20-25 in stores that normally overcharge for HD-DVD discs but BB somehow found a way to overprice Leo's new movie above all logical common sense (with a $29.99 Blu-ray version right next to it). :(

That's assuming that PS3 owners will continue buying titles AND that HD DVD hardware sales will remain static.

While I think it's possible that we will see 80/20 by year's end I don't think it's a likely scenario.

With no announced $399 or cheaper BD standalone how long do you think retailers are going to pin their hopes and dreams on an overpriced underselling game console to carry the next generation?

With no announced Disney, Sony, Fox, MGM, or Lionsgate titles how long do you think retailers are going to in their hopes on a next generation product that can not offer even a majority of Hollywood's content?

72/38 ?? Need I say anything at all? ;)
LORD No!!!

;)

Who loves ya', man.

Which promo offers free Ghost Rider and/or PotC?
:D

Ya' gotta' admire the perseverance in the face of 20 plus weeks of beating. This guy (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9HrinSGOvs) comes to mind.

Standard DVD outsells BD and HD 9x% to 1x% every day. Do you have DVD owners gloating? Does that say anything about whether or not DVD is better than BD or HD?

Heck...there are more BD players out there. Thats ALL these numbers say. OFCOURSE BD will sell more every week. What's with the smack talking?

Of course you are right that there is a lot of smack talk, but it comes from both sides and feeds off of one another. That said, it's silly to compare HD disk sales to DVD. Retailers, studios, and the bulk of average customers do not want two formats, so the "winning" format will emerge while sales are still a fraction of DVD sales, just like DVD beat Divx when both were a small fraction of VHS sales.

HD DVD has been losing in sales for a long time now, and it needs to make a showing to make other customers and companies believe it has a shot to come back and win. The fact that it failed to do so when it had a huge releas advantage (and when several people on both sides of the format war said they would) looks somewhat dire, although things could still change.

Or they could get worse, which is what looks may happen in the coming weeks as the PS3 price cut takes effect. If you think this is meaningless, I don't think you have a good understanding of the relationship between public perception, retail space costs, and how formats are selected.

...
3. Planet Earth BD 82.35
...
10. Planet Earth HD 56.94...
BD is outselling HD now ? HD still leads at Amazon.

Nothing prevents them from slashing the 80gb model down to $500, which I suspect they will do. They should save some cost on the removal of the EE & using the 65nm chip, which should offset the 20gb increase in hard drive space.
As I said in a previous post on the site, the price cut was simply done to clear inventory. Sony shipped out way too many PS3's that didn't sell, and they need to clear them out.

Does anyone really think a 20GB increase in storage is worth another $100? Of course not, which is why they are staying at the $600 price. They're cost remains the same, but they are hoping to get another go at selling the system.

None of these systems are going to move any significant amount until they hit the $200-300 price range.

BD is outselling HD now ? HD still leads at Amazon.

Amazon is a worthless measure.

As I said in a previous post on the site, the price cut was simply done to clear inventory. Sony shipped out way too many PS3's that didn't sell, and they need to clear them out.

Does anyone really think a 20GB increase in storage is worth another $100? Of course not, which is why they are staying at the $600 price. They're cost remains the same, but they are hoping to get another go at selling the system.

None of these systems are going to move any significant amount until they hit the $200-300 price range.

You're simply presenting your opinion, and I presented mine. No one really knows what the cost of the system is & if they're willing to move the 80gb system down to $500 after they clear out the 60gb systems. We know they're implementing cost savings measures into the new systems, and being a hardware manufacturer, reduction of costs is something they should be good at.

If nobody thinks an extra 20gb is worth another $100, why would they keep it at that price after the 60gbs clear out? Are you saying there wont be a holiday season special, and they'll simply leave the price at $600? How long did toshiba let their players' prices sit at a higher price before reducing them again?

Does anyone really think a 20GB increase in storage is worth another $100?

Microsoft.
They charge that for the 20GB HDD price.
That's also the difference in price between the Core (HDD-less) and standard 360 system is, along with a $20 premium controller and a flimsy component cable.

JM is correct.

One can see that, overall, HD DVD has been steadily improving it's percentage of the sales since the start of the year.

Interestingly - since you want to look at them since only the start of the "Free Movies" promotion - what you are actually drawing attention to is the fact that the free movies have changed the split from a pretty consistent 58/42 or 57/43 split to something less.

But more importantly, this is counting the free movies that may not have been purchased. However, since the 69/31 at the start of the promotion, the trading is now at 66/34, so techinically HD DVD, as JM says, has still gained overall.
Im not sure... but I think if you have to come in and explain how HD DVD has made the smallest gain... well its not looking good for them if their gains are so small they must be pointed out in such a fasion or not seen at all. I dont understand, this is a sales thread... blu rays kicking that ass in sales and has been. Sooooooo, what is everyone arguing over? How bad the ass kicking really is?

Does this indicate that The Untouchables sold better on HD DVD than on Blu-ray, or do we not have enough data to know whether it was at 31.63 or higher for Blu-ray (given that the xx entries are often derived)?

--Darin
Using GR-BD as 100, There is no data for titles between 31.63 56.93 to know this. However, working backwards from the aggregate HD+BD, using Terebithia-BD on aggregate list as 53.00, then we Untouchable-BD < 31 on combined list or < 43 (roughly) on single title list or Untouchables BD+HD would be higher than Terabithia's 53.00

Doesn't say if Untouchables-BD > Untouchables-HD (if placed on the split format list), but we know it has to be < 43 on the split format list, and < 31 on the aggregate list. Untouchable HD is 22.71 on the aggregate list. If Untouchable-BD is > 31.63 on split format list, then it outsold Untouchable-HD.

Similarly, Untouchable-HD+BD > 45.4 on aggregate list, then Untouchable-BD outsold Untouchable-HD. The most that Untouchable BD can outsell Untouchable HD is 57.15:42.85.

IOW, there's nothing useful in there, just a few minutes spent with excel... :)

Im not sure... but I think if you have to come in and explain how HD DVD has made the smallest gain... well its not looking good for them if their gains are so small they must be pointed out in such a fasion or not seen at all. I dont understand, this is a sales thread... blu rays kicking that ass in sales and has been. Sooooooo, what is everyone arguing over? How bad the ass kicking really is?

HD DVD has made equal gains to BRD. Neither is doing anything different month to month when you look at the last 7 months. Still the same ratio. And it iwll stay this way until more HD DVD players are sold.

How will these sales numbers be effected when Blu-ray does the following 3 things? :

1. Blu-ray releases the summer Blockbusters (SM3, Pirates 3, FF2, Rat., DH4, Transformers, etc.) in the Fall/Winter of 2007?

2. Warner Brothers "cathes-up" with delayed titles in the winter (BB, V, Matrix, etc.)?

3. Fox begins releasing again the the Fall/Winter of 2007?

~Josh

HD DVD has made equal gains to BRD. Neither is doing anything different month to month when you look at the last 7 months. Still the same ratio. And it iwll stay this way until more HD DVD players are sold.

gap with numbers of disc sold is growing each month...... and with more HD DVD players sold, there will be even mode PS3 sold, and growing base of standalones...

and with Q4 full of BR blockbusters,... well we will see :)

gap with numbers of disc sold is growing each month...... and with more HD DVD players sold, there will be even mode PS3 sold, and growing base of standalones...

and with Q4 full of BR blockbusters,... well we will see :)

Q4 is going to see plenty of big releases on both titles, with the nod to BD having a few more big movies coming than HD.

Lets wait and see what the holiday season shows rather than merrily dancing on the competitions grave, eh?

Day Week YTD SI
04/08 62.4/37.6 69.4/30.6 56.4/43.6
04/15 61/39 69/31 57/43
04/22 52/48 68/32 57/43
04/29 71/29 68/32 58/42
05/06 60/40 68/32 57/43
05/13 62/38 68/32 57/43
05/20 58/42 67/33 57/43
05/27 69/31 67/33 58/42<--week player promotion started
06/03 61/39 67/33 59/41
06/10 66/34 67/33 59/41
06/17 64/36 67/33 59/41
06/24 70/30 67/33 59/41
07/01 65/35 67/33 60/40
07/08 66/34 67/33 60/40

Averaging out the months, we get the following percentages for BD:

April: 61.60
May: 62.25
June: 65.25
July (so far): 65.50

Looks to me like HD DVD had some of it's better numbers before the promotion started, and in the seven weeks that the deal has been going on, nothing has really happened, so little if any hardware effect. Not only that, the one time that HD DVD dominated in titles and had no exclusive competition, it was still outsold by almost 2:1, so no software effect. I see no evidence of your "INCREASE in percentages".

You can't "average out the months" because we don't know the number of discs sold, so there's no way to weight the weeks accurately.

Another way of looking at this is that, in the 7 weeks since the promotion started, HD-DVD has outperformed the YTD percentages 5 times (5 out of 6 if you don't count the week of promotion launch). Of course, with no numbers, there's no way to weight the value of those 7 weeks.

The way I see it, if it's possible to have swings as high as 6 percentage points on a week-to-week basis, then these quantities are extremely low to begin with and have little value for statistical analysis. The player numbers favor BD, so obviously, the media numbers will as well for some time to come.

Q4 is going to see plenty of big releases on both titles, with the nod to BD having a few more big movies coming than HD.

Lets wait and see what the holiday season shows rather than merrily dancing on the competitions grave, eh?

those few are huge, remember this will be the first potc day and date release, spiderman3 as well.

those few are huge, remember this will be the first potc day and date release, spiderman3 as well.

Remember, that the 1st two POTC movies certainly haven't sold like gang busters to the PS3 faithful even though they are squarely aimed at gamers. Based on the last sales numbers I saw, if you take the number of POTC BDs sold and divide it into the number of PS3s it has something like a 5% adoption rate.

Hardly anything to brag about.

Matrix on the other hand has something like a 8% adoption rate on HD DVD (again based on number of copies sold vs. number of players purportedly sold) and that's with a box set that sells for $69-$99.

My own prediction for first week of August;

300 BD will outsell HD DVD by around 2:1 but we will see that a much larger percentage of HD DVD owners have bought the disc than BD owners. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

3. Fox begins releasing again the the Fall/Winter of 2007?

~Josh
Is it Fall/Winter now? I thought you said it was June. Then July. I ask again, where's the proof? Your "contacts" seem to be wrong way too often.

You can't "average out the months" because we don't know the number of discs sold, so there's no way to weight the weeks accurately.

Another way of looking at this is that, in the 7 weeks since the promotion started, HD-DVD has outperformed the YTD percentages 5 times (5 out of 6 if you don't count the week of promotion launch). Of course, with no numbers, there's no way to weight the value of those 7 weeks.

The way I see it, if it's possible to have swings as high as 6 percentage points on a week-to-week basis, then these quantities are extremely low to begin with and have little value for statistical analysis. The player numbers favor BD, so obviously, the media numbers will as well for some time to come.

You are right that the monthly averages are suspect without weighting.

However, it is quite normal and expected for the weekly numbers to vary with respect to the YTD. This is partly normal statistical variation and largely responsive to the changes in the newly released titles. For example, if you look at DVD sales by studio, you will see great variations week by week and studios release new product. The market is very hit-driven.

While the numbers are low, as we know, the weekly variations are not the result of those low numbers so much as the release patterns. As I say, compare this to DVD to see what I mean. This last week, there were few new DVD releases, and none of them broken into the top DVD charts, meaning it was a very low-volume week for DVD.

Overall, I think you are trying too hard to find an optimistic way to read these numbers for HD DVD. The real story of recent weeks is that Blu-ray is holding up even when HD DVD has apparently superior new releases.

Remember, that the 1st two POTC movies certainly haven't sold like gang busters to the PS3 faithful even though they are squarely aimed at gamers. Based on the last sales numbers I saw, if you take the number of POTC BDs sold and divide it into the number of PS3s it has something like a 5% adoption rate.


they've outsold any other catalog release by a wide margin. also people have dvd's of the first two, third will be out on both at the same time.

they've outsold any other catalog release by a wide margin. also people have dvd's of the first two, third will be out on both at the same time.

Fair enough. I still expect the numbers for the BD version to be a disappointment considering how many playback devices will be in the wild at that time.

Fair enough. I still expect the numbers for the BD version to be a disappointment considering how many playback devices will be in the wild at that time.

ahhh, so you counting all PS3s as primary BD players and you expecting that out the sky you will get 2mill sold disks of Pirates 3 ? and if that will not happen, you will be disappointed...

it's like asking, that every xbox360 owner HAVE to buy HD DVD addon :)

Is it Fall/Winter now? I thought you said it was June. Then July. I ask again, where's the proof? Your "contacts" seem to be wrong way too often.

Fall/Winter is when they are currently expecting to be back in the game "full-time." She said we should see some releases of the delayed titles shortly.

All of this depends on the success/failure of BD+.

~Josh

ahhh, so you counting all PS3s as primary BD players and you expecting that out the sky you will get 2mill sold disks of Pirates 3 ? and if that will not happen, you will be disappointed...

it's like asking, that every xbox360 owner HAVE to buy HD DVD addon :)

So BD 2:1 sales advantage in software sales is meaningful in and of itself despite the fact that BD has 10X the hardware base, yet if we talk about what percentage of PS3 buyers will buy a blockbuster title like POTC that's taboo?

:rolleyes:

I'm just going to stop here because this topic has been hashed to death. Sure seems like you guys want to have your cake (winning in disc sales) and eat it too (ignore the pathetic sales attachment rates on PS3).

At least one studio has admitted that this is a factor, Steve Nickerson, VP of HD at Warner says;

"These figures are especially important because the standalone player market is by far the biggest driver of movie sales in the long-term."

"This is simply because those who buy a standalone player are interested solely in buying and watching movies and other video content, whereas those with HD drives built into games consoles are primarily interested in games."

So BD 2:1 sales advantage in software sales is meaningful in and of itself despite the fact that BD has 10X the hardware base, yet if we talk about what percentage of PS3 buyers will buy a blockbuster title like POTC that's taboo?

:rolleyes:

I'm just going to stop here because this topic has been hashed to death. Sure seems like you guys want to have your cake (winning in disc sales) and eat it too (ignore the pathetic sales attachment rates on PS3).

At least one studio has admitted that this is a factor, Steve Nickerson, VP of HD at Warner says;

People know this and most everyone understands this. Attach rates is and always will be higher for standalones. But having a game console out there that many use for a standalone and many others use occasionally is a huge asset. Huge enough to give BD the lead seven months and running with no signs of it letting up. The hardware prices will catch up and BD will Still have the PS3 and the studio support. What is HD gonna do then?

So BD 2:1 sales advantage in software sales is meaningful in and of itself despite the fact that BD has 10X the hardware base, yet if we talk about what percentage of PS3 buyers will buy a blockbuster title like POTC that's taboo?

:rolleyes:


you said "that's taboo" not me.....
I never said if that ratio or that attach rate is meaningfull or meaningless, so please do not put in my mouth something I never said.......

where did you found BD has 10x hardware base ???

so if you have several FEW thousands disk sold for SEARCHER on HD DVD you are happy, but you will be disspointed with POTC3 with over for example 150.000 disk sold, because of number of PS3s ?

:)

you said "that's taboo" not me.....
I never said if that ratio or that attach rate is meaningfull or meaningless, so please do not put in my mouth something I never said.......

where did you found BD has 10x hardware base ???

so if you have several FEW thousands disk sold for SEARCHER on HD DVD you are happy, but you will be disspointed with POTC3 with over for example 150.000 disk sold, because of number of PS3s ?

:)

The installed base on HD until recently was well under 300K. So actually a 1% attachment rate on a catalog title that will appeal to a small number of people is quite respectable.

What's not respectable is only selling 80K copies of "The Departed" when you have an installed base of 1.6 million.

^^^ Bingo! :)

The installed base on HD until recently was well under 300K. So actually a 1% attachment rate on a catalog title that will appeal to a small number of people is quite respectable.

What's not respectable is only selling 80K copies of "The Departed" when you have an installed base of 1.6 million.


so, so pq killed that one. if it was done like casino or pot's...

So BD 2:1 sales advantage in software sales is meaningful in and of itself despite the fact that BD has 10X the hardware base...Are you purposely using US or NA for software sales ratio and worldwide for hardware base? Or is there some other trick? For the US the PS3 had sold about 1.5 million recently with maybe 100k more standalones, while HD DVD was over 300k total for standalones and XBOX360 add-ons. Go back further and I still don't see a 10x ratio for hardware for the US or NA. So, why are you claiming 10X and then 2:1 for software? If you are going to use the Nielsen numbers in this thread for software ratio then you should use hardware for the same region (US or NA).

And if Blu-ray maintained a 5:1 to 6:1 hardware ratio and 2:1 software advantage in the US or NA for a while, that would be bad news for HD DVD, since they need to keep Universal exclusive and that isn't the kind of thing that achieves that, and doesn't give Disney or Fox big incentives to come to HD DVD. I thought most people here knew before the PS3 shipped that it should have lower attach rates than standalones, much like those Toshiba laptops should. Still not sure if what I see here is feigned ignorance or real ignorance. 20% effective rate for the PS3 as far as movie sales would be pretty good going forward and be significant to the war, as I said before it even launched.

Microsoft chose a path that led to higher movie attach rates for their product, but lower movie sales. Some seem to think that means HD DVD is doing better than it would be doing if they had included an HD DVD drive in every XBOX360.

--Darin

However, it is quite normal and expected for the weekly numbers to vary with respect to the YTD. This is partly normal statistical variation and largely responsive to the changes in the newly released titles. For example, if you look at DVD sales by studio, you will see great variations week by week and studios release new product. The market is very hit-driven.

While the numbers are low, as we know, the weekly variations are not the result of those low numbers so much as the release patterns. As I say, compare this to DVD to see what I mean. This last week, there were few new DVD releases, and none of them broken into the top DVD charts, meaning it was a very low-volume week for DVD.

Overall, I think you are trying too hard to find an optimistic way to read these numbers for HD DVD. The real story of recent weeks is that Blu-ray is holding up even when HD DVD has apparently superior new releases.

What I'm saying is that the weekly numbers to vary so greatly in response to new releases speaks to the relatively low volume of sales. If the volume were higher, there would be less variability.

Maybe I'm looking for an optimistic view of the numbers, but my honest thinking is that this matters little right now. This is not currently a zero-sum situation. In the strong majority of cases (dual adopters excepted), sales that go to BD are not taken away from HD-DVD and vice versa. What we should be cheering for is significantly increased volume quarter over quarter. Once studios realize that prerecorded HD Media is a viable market, then this whole thing can evolve to where it's going. With such low numbers, no one will "win the war."

As for my motives, I was posting to try and offer a different view of the statistics. We seem to be running to extremes around here when the data show a situation that does not, to me, seem to be anywhere near its conclusion. With the disparity of players out there in favor of BD and current buying patterns, there is no reason to hang on each week's sales (other than for the fun of the discussion) and IMHO, there is NO reason to expect HD to win a week any time soon.

As for my attempts to be optimistic in the face of HD not gaining ground even with "superior new releases," I don't care much how this plays out. I do have an A2, but that was because it seemed a reasonable way to get into the game at limited cost. If it ends up BD as the sole format, it won't matter much to me.

I thought most people here knew before the PS3 shipped that it should have lower attach rates than standalones, much like those Toshiba laptops should. Still not sure if what I see here is feigned ignorance or real ignorance. 20% effective rate for the PS3 as far as movie sales would be pretty good going forward and be significant to the war, as I said before it even launched.

You're right, 20% penetration by Blu-ray movies in the PS3 market is excellent (especially when taking into account the 3% attach rate of the HD-DVD drive to the XBox 360). But I don't think Sony or its BDA studios (including HD-DVD neutrals Paramount and Warner) were expecting the PS3 to be the slow-seller its been for the past few months, coming behind the Wii, 360, PS2, PSP and even the GameBoy Advance (not the DS, the fracking GBA!). Sony and the studios were expecting to get 20% of a much larger pool of PS3 owners than what they have right now to buy BD movies to bury HD-DVD sales permanently into a 90-10 or 95-5 hole of non-sales. The $599 price of the PS3 and the much lower price of HD-DVD ($500 at the start and much lower since) opened a window for Toshiba to carve for HD-DVD a sizable-enough share of the market (between 40 and 30% most weeks) to make a convincing argument for the format's continued existence. Toshiba couldn't make this argument if sales for HD-DVD were 15, 10 or 5 percent of the pie, but 30 to 40 percent? More than reasonable but, on the eye of the beholder, proof of how the PS3 has underperformed as the BD format's savior.

Sony's recent lowering of the 60GB PS3 and new Blu-ray player down to Tosh's original entry MSRP of $499 may actually benefit it more now than ever since there are more HDTV owners now (July '07) than when the first BD players and PS3 systems debuted back in '06. Heck, my J6P sister and her boyfriend just got their first HDTV last week so technically they're ready to be HD owners. I told them about this war and they aren't interested though. They said $250 for HD-DVD was obscene, but $499 for a Blu-ray player was insulting! :(

I like that BD outsells HD DVD month to month due solely to the PS3, but BD is a failure because the PS3 isn't selling millions of movie.

I also like that getting outsold at least 1.5 to 1 is keeping up, even though HD DVD is behind more units each and every month.

Bad analogy time - if one team scores 15 points a minute and the other scores 10 points a minute consistently, is the 2nd team keeping up?

I like that BD outsells HD DVD month to month due solely to the PS3, but BD is a failure because the PS3 isn't selling millions of movie.

I also like that getting outsold at least 1.5 to 1 is keeping up, even though HD DVD is behind more units each and every month.

Bad analogy time - if one team scores 15 points a minute and the other scores 10 points a minute consistently, is the 2nd team keeping up?


Is a basketaball game with a score of 60/40 consired a close game (despite not coming to the game on time ;) ). Well if you are the coach of the team with 40 points perhaps :p

Is a basketaball game with a score of 60/40 consired a close game (despite not coming to the game on time ;) ). Well if you are the coach of the team with 40 points perhaps :p

And the gap keeps growing, next its 66-44, then 72-48 but since the ratio is similar so they act like they are keeping up.

And the gap keeps growing, next its 66-44, then 72-48 but since the ratio is similar so they act like they are keeping up.

Business is not a game. There isn't a referee that decides when the game is up - otherwise we would not have more than one of any technology ever....since we would have a winner decided at the end of the game! A business survive because it makes money - profits. BD business model is yet to prove that it is profitable for anyone yet....

To pretend that business is run like a game is naive at best, IMO.

Business is not a game. There isn't a referee that decides when the game is up - otherwise we would not have more than one of any technology ever....since we would have a winner decided at the end of the game! A business survive because it makes money - profits. BD business model is yet to prove that it is profitable for anyone yet....

To pretend that business is run like a game is naive at best, IMO.

If you can pretend by that two formats will succeed in this market, then I can use a bad analogy. Which is exactly what I called it in my post.

And the gap keeps growing, next its 66-44, then 72-48 but since the ratio is similar so they act like they are keeping up.

UHHHH??!!! :p

UHHHH??!!! :p
Those aren't ratios. ;)

Those aren't ratios. ;)

Sorry, was just continuing the 60/40 ratio on up, was a bad analogy in the first place, according to my post.

Is a basketaball game with a score of 60/40 consired a close game (despite not coming to the game on time ;) ). Well if you are the coach of the team with 40 points perhaps :p

As Yogi said, "It ain't over, 'til it's over." ;)

It's about time Planet Earth on HD DVD started to fall. Hasn't it been ranked near the top for the past couple of months? The Blu-Ray version most likely picked up steam relative to the HD DVD version due to Planet Earth's saturation.

It's about time Planet Earth on HD DVD started to fall. Hasn't it been ranked near the top for the past couple of months? The Blu-Ray version most likely picked up steam relative to the HD DVD version due to Planet Earth's saturation.

I am suprised either version is still selling in the top 10 on either side.

You're right, 20% penetration by Blu-ray movies in the PS3 market is excellent (especially when taking into account the 3% attach rate of the HD-DVD drive to the XBox 360). But I don't think Sony or its BDA studios (including HD-DVD neutrals Paramount and Warner) were expecting the PS3 to be the slow-seller its been for the past few months, coming behind the Wii, 360, PS2, PSP and even the GameBoy Advance (not the DS, the fracking GBA!). Sony and the studios were expecting to get 20% of a much larger pool of PS3 owners than what they have right now to buy BD movies to bury HD-DVD sales permanently into a 90-10 or 95-5 hole of non-sales. The $599 price of the PS3 and the much lower price of HD-DVD ($500 at the start and much lower since) opened a window for Toshiba to carve for HD-DVD a sizable-enough share of the market (between 40 and 30% most weeks) to make a convincing argument for the format's continued existence. Toshiba couldn't make this argument if sales for HD-DVD were 15, 10 or 5 percent of the pie, but 30 to 40 percent? More than reasonable but, on the eye of the beholder, proof of how the PS3 has underperformed as the BD format's savior.

Sony's recent lowering of the 60GB PS3 and new Blu-ray player down to Tosh's original entry MSRP of $499 may actually benefit it more now than ever since there are more HDTV owners now (July '07) than when the first BD players and PS3 systems debuted back in '06. Heck, my J6P sister and her boyfriend just got their first HDTV last week so technically they're ready to be HD owners. I told them about this war and they aren't interested though. They said $250 for HD-DVD was obscene, but $499 for a Blu-ray player was insulting! :(


".....Toshiba to carve for HD-DVD a sizable-enough share of the market (between 40 and 30% most weeks) to make a convincing argument for the format's continued existence. Toshiba couldn't make this argument if sales for HD-DVD were 15, 10 or 5 percent of the pie......"

So what about when their current share drops to between 16% and 29%? Does the argument for HD-DVD's continued existance remain convincing? What about 19%? At what percentage will the argument no longer be convincing for you?

".....Toshiba to carve for HD-DVD a sizable-enough share of the market (between 40 and 30% most weeks) to make a convincing argument for the format's continued existence. Toshiba couldn't make this argument if sales for HD-DVD were 15, 10 or 5 percent of the pie......"

So what about when their current share drops to between 16% and 29%? Does the argument for HD-DVD's continued existance remain convincing? What about 19%? At what percentage will the argument no longer be convincing for you?

It is becoming clear that some people will never admit that BD is the winning format.

It really won't matter until all content is available on BD, but many of them still won't admit they were wrong.

It's about time Planet Earth on HD DVD started to fall. Hasn't it been ranked near the top for the past couple of months? The Blu-Ray version most likely picked up steam relative to the HD DVD version due to Planet Earth's saturation.

Now step back and realize youre finally acknowledging why BD will win this war. The more PS3's/BD players in homes = less saturation and elongated sales......

]...Toshiba to carve for HD-DVD a sizable-enough share of the market (between 40 and 30% most weeks) to make a convincing argument for the format's continued existence. Toshiba couldn't make this argument if sales for HD-DVD were 15, 10 or 5 percent of the pie...

So what about when their current share drops to between 16% and 29%? Does the argument for HD-DVD's continued existance remain convincing? What about 19%? At what percentage will the argument no longer be convincing for you?

I'd say below 15% share for an extended period of time (a few weeks/couple of months) would be a very, very bad sign for HD-DVD's prospects. Above 25% share and HD-DVD is safe as a viable platform for the foreseeable future. More important is the size of the home market captured by both formats. 35% of 3% of the market is a hell of a lot more profitable than 35% of less-than-1% HD-DVD's share is right now.

Top titles by unit thru June 24 (with guesstimates thru July 8)

Using the YTD top titles percentages we got a week ago compared to the YTD numbers we got for May 27 and using the following estimated numbers for top selling titles in weeks since

June 3 - 100%=8.000
June 10 - 100%=4.300
June 17 - 100%=22.200
June 24 - 100%=11.000

Also for
July 1 - no numbers, used average of weeks before and after where possible
July 8 - 100%=4.000 which is more of a guess than an estimate

To clarify it's possible to get a very close estimate on Ghost Rider compared to Casino Royale using the June 17+24 percentages. My original estimate for those weeks were lower (20.000+8.000) but they have to be over 33.000 together for Ghost Rider to be able to reach 34.33% of Casino Royale YTD.

Having the 100% numbers for those two weeks pretty much locked in it was necessary to adjust my previous estimates for the two weeks before those (originally 9.700+5.000).

After doing this the variations in this list is very small compared to the YTD percentages we got for June 24. Since the YTD numbers we have for May 27 are rounded it's hard to get much closer.

For titles where we don't have numbers for all or any of the 4 weeks I have used averages from previous weeks.

The (probably) very accurate top seller list thru June 24

96.227 Casino Royal - BD (104.000 guesstimate for July 8)
67.085 The Departed - BD (69.200)
59.126 Batman Begins - HD DVD (62.100)
48.612 Superman Returns - BD (50.500)
42.904 Planet Earth - HD DVD (48.700)
42.712 Pirates: DMC - BD (50.000)
41.440 Superman Returns - HD DVD (42.500)
40.434 The Departed - HD DVD (41.700)
37.580 Fifth Element - BD (39.400)
37.500 The Prestige - BD (38.700)
37.152 Pirates: CBP - BD (43.500)
35.194 Apocalypto - BD (41.600)

----- FROM HERE ON SOME OLDER TITLES HAVE BEEN SKIPPED -----

33.400 Night at the Museum - BD (35.200)
33.200 Ghost Rider - BD (44.700)
27.390 Planet Earth - BD (34.100)
26.300 Happy Feet - BD (26.700)
19.200 Smokin Aces - HD DVD (20.200)
16.600 Happy Feet - HD DVD (17.000)

The strangest number I found is how Casino Royale trippled it's numbers the June 24 week. I have no idea why. It now seems to have gone back to closer to where the average was earlier.

It's clear that PE HD DVD have dropped considerably the last two weeks. It seems like the BD is doing slightly better the last three weeks than before.

And before anyone asks. The reason Sony hasn't annonced Casino Royale reaching 100.000 is that they already did that sometime in March or so. ;)

Reasonable comments welcome :rolleyes:

Edit: changed mistake on Superman Returns HD DVD July 8 number

I'd say below 15% share for an extended period of time (a few weeks/couple of months) would be a very, very bad sign for HD-DVD's prospects. Above 25% share and HD-DVD is safe as a viable platform for the foreseeable future.

As time goes by though, things look more and more troublesome for HD DVD. Let's say it does fall to 25% this year, that will only convince more people to buy BD players and more companies to drop HD DVD support which in turn will cause the share to drop again with similar effects.

It's not like Blu-ray have really broken sweat either, they're comfortably in the lead and forcing Toshiba on the back foot and yet they've barely released any titles in recent months and few of their titles have been huge box office hits save for Casino Royale and the POTC films. Players are still at least $200 more than the cheapest HD DVD player.

Toshiba's only answer is to subsidise players even more which isn't a sustainable strategy and so far hasn't worked. How cheap do HD DVD players have to be before enough people consider them worth buying in large numbers?

Toshiba's only answer is to subsidise players even more which isn't a sustainable strategy and so far hasn't worked. How cheap do HD DVD players have to be before enough people consider them worth buying in large numbers?

$199, then $149 and then the magic mass-market price of $99. And HD-DVD is much closer to this megaton and potentially marketshare-exploding benchmarks than Blu-ray is or will be for a long time. :)

As time goes by though, things look more and more troublesome for HD DVD. Let's say it does fall to 25% this year, that will only convince more people to buy BD players and more companies to drop HD DVD support which in turn will cause the share to drop again with similar effects.

And we know this how? As I mentioned earlier, it's not a zero-sum situation. The sale of a BD or HD disc is not happening at the expense of the other format. Right now, the pie is growing, and for the last couple of months, it's growing with the percentages for each format staying fairly stable.

We have no idea what it would take for a studio to add/pull support. These percentages don't mean as much as the raw numbers and the potential profitability of a format. This is not a game where one loses and one wins by having the most points when the final buzzer goes off.

$199, then $149 and then the magic mass-market price of $99. And HD-DVD is much closer to this megaton and potentially marketshare-exploding benchmarks than Blu-ray is or will be for a long time. :)

See the thing is that maybe you are happy with a format with no content but the average person buys a player to watch MOVIES and the majority of the movies are on Blu-ray. They won't mind spending another $100 to gain access to many more titles. On top of that, most people I know wouldn't touch a Toshiba product no matter how cheap and it doesn't look like any other manufacturer is going to join the losing format any time soon. People who love movies will go with Blu-ray, and those who just want a cheap player will I guess buy an HDDVD player.

People who love movies AND want a cheap player will I guess buy an HDDVD player.

Fixed! :p

See the thing is that maybe you are happy with a format with no content but the average person buys a player to watch MOVIES and the majority of the movies are on Blu-ray. They won't mind spending another $100 to gain access to many more titles. On top of that, most people I know wouldn't touch a Toshiba product no matter how cheap and it doesn't look like any other manufacturer is going to join the losing format any time soon. People who love movies will go with Blu-ray, and those who just want a cheap player will I guess buy an HDDVD player.


TRUTH.

Nielsen data is flawed without WalMart in my opinion. If they also do not include some sources of cheap online sales then it is flawed even further. Look at this forum and how people flock to $0.50 savings on a disk. People will absolutely buy the cheapest price and some will go so far as to open a credit card to save a few more dollars.

WalMart has been the KING of low prices and when their data is excluded, the whole polling of VideoScan is flawed.

DVD Empire, Buy.com, WarnerHome and I am sure others ....

Oh buy the way, the only 3 disks I have purchased from B&M to date. 1 from BestBuy and 2 from WalMart.

Does that mean the HD DVD movies that were on sale last week for around $15 are not included??? That would seem stuuuuppid.

Format with no content? Funny, last time I checked HD-DVD has MORE movies coming out this third quarter than Blu-ray. And what do you know, they're movies with more meat in their bones than BD's shallow offerings. I'll take The Big Lebowsky HD-DVD catalogue over Ghost Rider day-and-date BD anyday, thank you. And you forget that Warner and Paramount are also releasing for HD-DVD, so "NO CONTENT" = FUD! :rolleyes:

Nielson's not 100% inclusive - But it's by far the most extensive, largest sample we have available.

Largest sample size does not mean it best represents the whole country.

There are small states that better represent how the country as a whole votes as opposed to sampling Ny or CA....sometimes sample size isn't important if you are not pulling info from all areas neccasar

See the thing is that maybe you are happy with a format with no content but the average person buys a player to watch MOVIES and the majority of the movies are on Blu-ray. They won't mind spending another $100 to gain access to many more titles. On top of that, most people I know wouldn't touch a Toshiba product no matter how cheap and it doesn't look like any other manufacturer is going to join the losing format any time soon. People who love movies will go with Blu-ray, and those who just want a cheap player will I guess buy an HDDVD player.

WOW! That one was worth a few dollars I bet!

See the thing is that maybe you are happy with a format with no content but the average person buys a player to watch MOVIES and the majority of the movies are on Blu-ray.

Last time I checked, the title count was pretty even for both. Maybe you are referring to the potential releases from BD exclusive studios. I would argue that the quality of the movies offered is more consistent with HD, but they are equal at best.

On top of that, most people I know wouldn't touch a Toshiba product no matter how cheap and it doesn't look like any other manufacturer is going to join the losing format any time soon.

Toshiba products are consitently rated among the top brands in Comsumer Reports. Working in retail myself, I see very few defective Toshiba electronics compared to other budget brands.

People who love movies will go with Blu-ray, and those who just want a cheap player will I guess buy an HDDVD player.

People who really love movies will buy both, or at least spend more time watching them instead of making unnecessary, confrontational posts on a forum.

And we know this how? As I mentioned earlier, it's not a zero-sum situation. The sale of a BD or HD disc is not happening at the expense of the other format. Right now, the pie is growing, and for the last couple of months, it's growing with the percentages for each format staying fairly stable.

We have no idea what it would take for a studio to add/pull support. These percentages don't mean as much as the raw numbers and the potential profitability of a format. This is not a game where one loses and one wins by having the most points when the final buzzer goes off.

Ahh, tell that to folks who walk into a Blockbuster's today and see ONLY Blu-ray. That's a result of percentages of 70% - 30% when the final buzzer went off for Blockbuster. Scores do matter in this "game". You definitely want to be decisively ahead when the whistle blows and decisions are made as to "who goes and who stays". And in my opinion, this Blu-ray - HD-DVD game is in the second half. I predict a Blu future after all the whistles have blown. And it won't be in overtime.

Ahh, tell that to folks who walk into a Blockbuster's today and see ONLY Blu-ray. That's a result of percentages of 70% - 30% when the final buzzer went off for Blockbuster. Scores do matter in this "game". You definitely want to be decisively ahead when the whistle blows and decisions are made as to "who goes and who stays". And in my opinion, this Blu-ray - HD-DVD game is in the second half. I predict a Blu future after all the whistles have blown. And it won't be in overtime.

Are you talking about the same blockbuster that announced store closings just a week after that BR announcement? The same one that rents HD DVD in hundreds of it's high profile stores and the internet?

Within the next two years BB will be history. Bankrupt due to their own arrogance. BR and HD DVD will have nothing to do with that. They accomplished that all on the own.

Format with no content? Funny, last time I checked HD-DVD has MORE movies coming out this third quarter than Blu-ray. And what do you know, they're movies with more meat in their bones than BD's shallow offerings. I'll take The Big Lebowsky HD-DVD catalogue over Ghost Rider day-and-date BD anyday, thank you. And you forget that Warner and Paramount are also releasing for HD-DVD, so "NO CONTENT" = FUD! :rolleyes:

I agree with your film criticism. Many of the Universl catalog titles of recent months are much better than the Blu-ray exclusives that were released, purely as film.

The problem is that customers bought Ghost Rider, Pirates, etc. not Lebowsky, Joe Black, Malkovich, etc.

Universal can get the award from the film school for best film scholarship. As far as their HD DVD strategy of shipping their catalog titles, it's a bust.

BTW this is not a Blu-ray specific problem: quality catalog titles and classics are not selling on either platform.

I agree with your film criticism. Many of the Universl catalog titles of recent months are much better than the Blu-ray exclusives that were released, purely as film.

The problem is that customers bought Ghost Rider, Pirates, etc. not Lebowsky, Joe Black, Malkovich, etc.

Universal can get the award from the film school for best film scholarship. As far as their HD DVD strategy of shipping their catalog titles, it's a bust.

BTW this is not a Blu-ray specific problem: quality catalog titles and classics are not selling on either platform.


True. Another big factor (at least for me) is price. While I'm willing to shell out $25 for "transformers" or any of the other newer hits, I'm less willing to pay that much for a movie made 10 years ago, classic or not. Maybe $10 would be a reasonable price for a hi-def catalog. An older title is simply worth less in the minds of the J6Ps of the world, and should be priced accordingly if they want them to sell. It matters little what the film enthusist thinks of films like GR, and how highly they think of their classics when one is selling well, and the other isnt. (I freely admit that I didnt think GR was good)

I think it's with that perspective, that the argument that hd dvd has "no content" comes up.

It is becoming clear that some people will never admit that BD is the winning format.

It really won't matter until all content is available on BD, but many of them still won't admit they were wrong.
I've been edging toward this conclusion as well. What used to be enjoyable, rational debate has now degraded into a head butting contest with a brick wall. Week after week after week of hopes are dashed, but there is always next week. Sort of reminds me of another war, but this is not a political, discussion forum.

Ahh, tell that to folks who walk into a Blockbuster's today and see ONLY Blu-ray. That's a result of percentages of 70% - 30% when the final buzzer went off for Blockbuster. Scores do matter in this "game". You definitely want to be decisively ahead when the whistle blows and decisions are made as to "who goes and who stays". And in my opinion, this Blu-ray - HD-DVD game is in the second half. I predict a Blu future after all the whistles have blown. And it won't be in overtime.
Good point

not trying to flamebait, but what do HD DVD supporters think after continually see this same 60ish to 30ish ratio pretty much every week?

Is there any realistic hope that these percentages (YTD and SI) will ever swing back in HD DVD's favor? With PS3 price drop and exclusive movies that will hopefully be released by Christmas, I personally do not see what HD DVD can do...

The BR releases have been lousy the past few weeks and it still wins handily...

The only card HD DVD can play is the 'lower the standalone price' and so far it has gotten them nowhere.

Next week's Nielsen numbers that reflect the PS3 price drop should be interesting (to put it mildly)...

Just as stand alone DVD players ended selling more then PS2 players....there will be more stand alone HD DVD players then PS3. So this Christmas when there are $199 HD DVD players adn maybe $99 chinesse player...and HD DVD sales pick up...that gap will close.

For next week I predict 71:29. 5% swing towards BD. I'm citing the ps3 price cut effect & the amazon bundling effect (pushing memento & RE pretty high in ranking for the entire week, averaging #2 -#5).

Regarding the universal releases, IIRC, "The wedding" was reviewed to have terrible PQ, while the other three movies were decent catalog movies.

PS3 price cuts shouldn't have much effect yet...unless PS3 games just really suck. A new PS3 owner should be enjoying games for a few weeks before being bored enough to want to watch a movie.......unless it is wife time and she wants to watch a movie with you.

See the thing is that maybe you are happy with a format with no content but the average person buys a player to watch MOVIES and the majority of the movies are on Blu-ray. They won't mind spending another $100 to gain access to many more titles. On top of that, most people I know wouldn't touch a Toshiba product no matter how cheap and it doesn't look like any other manufacturer is going to join the losing format any time soon. People who love movies will go with Blu-ray, and those who just want a cheap player will I guess buy an HDDVD player.

Well it's more then a $100 difference right now.

The late adopters want upgraded movies but at the best price... I know once it is profitable or once it reaches a rate of profitability of selling on a format...then the movie studios will support my format.

PS3 price cuts shouldn't have much effect yet...unless PS3 games just really suck. A new PS3 owner should be enjoying games for a few weeks before being bored enough to want to watch a movie.......unless it is wife time and she wants to watch a movie with you.

another who thinks that PS3s is only for games :) I wonder

Just as stand alone DVD players ended selling more then PS2 players....there will be more stand alone HD DVD players then PS3. So this Christmas when there are $199 HD DVD players adn maybe $99 chinesse player...and HD DVD sales pick up...that gap will close.

uff :) more HD DVD players then PS3s ? :) great, you mean $99 blu-ray chinesse players right ?

so PS3s will stop selling, Blu-ray standalones will stop selling, no blockbusters will come out in Q4 :) and THEN the gap will start closing......., since nothing of this is happening, no closing is happenig

Marek

It is becoming clear that some people will never admit that BD is the winning format.

It really won't matter until all content is available on BD, but many of them still won't admit they were wrong.

I hope, fervently, that we dont wake up many weeks from now and find that HD optical-media is dead because of the stupidity of the losing side (whichever it is at the time) not throwing in the towel when there is no way back.

A good argument can be made for hd-dvd (as the present losing side) for fighting on since hope is not completely lost. BUT there comes a time in any battle when fighting-spirit changes to ineffective & hopeless tenacity and then becomes imbecility/denial. Meanwhile, Apple and MS will offer 720p low bitrate downloads *shudder*.

Dont let it happen, not if you love your 1080p + 7.1 movies on shiny discs.

The only bright side, Imo, is Apple is likely to win the download market, not MS.

2c

I hope, fervently, that we dont wake up many weeks from now and find that HD optical-media is dead because of the stupidity of the losing side (whichever it is at the time) not throwing in the towel when there is no way back.

A good argument can be made for hd-dvd (as the present losing side) for fighting on since hope is not completely lost. BUT there comes a time in any battle when fighting-spirit changes to ineffective & hopeless tenacity and then becomes imbecility/denial. Meanwhile, Apple and MS will offer 720p low bitrate downloads *shudder*.

Dont let it happen, not if you love your 1080p + 7.1 movies on shiny discs.

The only bright side, Imo, is Apple is likely to win the download market, not MS.

2c

I think that BD has to catch up to HD DVD in features, etc, before HD DVD should consider throwing in the towel.

I hope, fervently, that we dont wake up many weeks from now and find that HD optical-media is dead because of the stupidity of the losing side (whichever it is at the time) not throwing in the towel when there is no way back.

A good argument can be made for hd-dvd (as the present losing side) for fighting on since hope is not completely lost. BUT there comes a time in any battle when fighting-spirit changes to ineffective & hopeless tenacity and then becomes imbecility/denial. Meanwhile, Apple and MS will offer 720p low bitrate downloads *shudder*.

Dont let it happen, not if you love your 1080p + 7.1 movies on shiny discs.

The only bright side, Imo, is Apple is likely to win the download market, not MS.

2c

Yes, HD DVD fans, don't go out and buy any more HD discs for the player you have or even contemplate getting a feature finished HD player that costs half of what the competition costs.

BECAUSE YOU'RE RUINING THE CHANCES OF HDM TAKING OFF!!!!

:rolleyes:

I mean, seriously. If you (or others) think HD DVD is doomed then just don't buy it. If in fact it's "this generation's Betamax" then even if they sell several million decks it is still doomed.

As Yogi said, "It ain't over, 'til it's over." ;)

That's baseball! I have been to games where the losing team has a great bottom of the ninth and wins.

The format war may be different. You have to ask yourself exactly what can happen to constitute the "winning home run".

We pretty much know what the major new titles are going to be right now. By September we should have all additional player announcements and pricing.

So it will be left to promotions, price changes, free titles etc. that can constitute ninth inning events. Too late to have a new blockbuster film that was released the June before.

As Yogi said, "It ain't over, 'til it's over." ;)

And the difference with the baseball analogy is that in the format war, you can't win unless your supporters are still in the park. With a 17-0 lead (which I'm not claiming for BD, by the way!), even in the bottom of the eighth, I know a lot of people who try to get to their car to beat the crowd!

It's nearly over when it's nearly over.

edit: I don't think it is nearly over right now, but it could well be nearly over on Dec 31.

Originally Posted by yampan

As Yogi said, "It ain't over, 'til it's over."


And the difference with the baseball analogy is that in the format war, you can't win unless your supporters are still in the park. With a 17-0 lead (which I'm not claiming for BD, by the way!), even in the bottom of the eighth, I know a lot of people who try to get to their car to beat the crowd!

It's nearly over when it's nearly over.

edit: I don't think it is nearly over right now, but it could well be nearly over on Dec 31.

Just trying to get you guys to lighten up and laugh a little. It's not the future of our civilization at stake here. BTW no need for an HD release of Pan's Labyrinth; the upconverted SD looks spectacular on an X-A2. .....hey, let's all try to get along 'til Friday. I know, I know, then all bets are off. :D :D

PS. regarding the baseball analogy.. When I was a kid, I was at a game in Yankee Stadium between the Tigers and the Yankees. Tigers were ahead 4-2 with 2 outs in the bottom of the ninth. Then a Yankee got a single, then another single, then another single..... 7 singles in a row until the Yankees won 5-4. I think more than half the crowd was already outside wondering what all the noise was about. So I guess Yog'is words have special meaning to me. I'm just not going to presume too much about this format battle. :)

Since this is the Nielsen thread here is a repost of my predictions for the coming week

Originally Posted by Jiffylush
Ok well, we have the figures for this week so, onto next week!

HD DVD

Billy Madison (Universal)
Dante's Peak (Universal)
The War (Universal)
The Wedding Date (Universal)

BD

Zip
Zero
Nada

My prediction...

64/36

The week after next

74/26

Now, if anyone wants to come over to the General Battle thread I am about to make a point about the # of titles.

Just trying to get you guys to lighten up and laugh a little. It's not the future of our civilization at stake here.

Unreal.

How can you possibly attempt to make light of this format war and indicate that the future of our civilization is not at stake here?

You have lost all credibility!

















;)

I agree with your film criticism. Many of the Universl catalog titles of recent months are much better than the Blu-ray exclusives that were released, purely as film.

The problem is that customers bought Ghost Rider, Pirates, etc. not Lebowsky, Joe Black, Malkovich, etc.

Universal can get the award from the film school for best film scholarship. As far as their HD DVD strategy of shipping their catalog titles, it's a bust.

BTW this is not a Blu-ray specific problem: quality catalog titles and classics are not selling on either platform.

Absolutely correct, and with Universal being an almost total loser at the box office over the last year or so, this situation isn't going to change any time soon.

BTW, I am one of those BD buyers that exhibit this apparent behaviour of buying only new releases, as I have little interest in re-purchasing something that I already had on DVD (so I am not really missing all that much on Universal (e.g., Lebowski, Joe Black, Malkovich -- already had 'em on DVD years ago).

Meanwhile, Apple and MS will offer 720p low bitrate downloads *shudder*. And Warner et al is offering 1080p low bitrate discs. *shudder* The logic I suspect is to get people to accept low bitrate VC-1 is enough so that MMC can happen the way MS thinks it will happen.

The difference between Apple and MS? Apple doesn't have a spokesperson and an evangelist on AVSF.


fuad

And Warner et al is offering 1080p low bitrate discs. *shudder* The logic I suspect is to get people to accept low bitrate VC-1 is enough so that MMC can happen the way MS thinks it will happen.

The difference between Apple and MS? Apple doesn't have a spokesperson and an evangelist on AVSF.


fuad

Apple also doesn't seem to be actively prolonging the format war.

Actually the HD DVD percentage has INCREASED compared to a month or two ago, so I'd say that we are seeing the effect of the hardware base increasing in HD DVD land.

Not really.

The HD DVD numbers used to be roughly 60:40 on a quiet week.

Now it is roughly 65:35 on a quiet week, or even a slew of catalog titles from Universal week.

That is not increasing, it is decreasing.

Unless you have a special way to interpret the numbers that is somehow lost on us?

On the topic of catalog releases being poor sellers, The Patriot showed up in the Hi Def Top 10 at number 4 - interestingly beating out the closest HD DVD top seller by 17%.

Does that mean that BD is a better format for catalog titles?

Does it mean that quality catalog titles sell better than fractional assed catalog releases?

I seem to recall that there was some who believed that HD DVD was a better choice for catalog titles... what was that argument again?

I think that BD has to catch up to HD DVD in features, etc, before HD DVD should consider throwing in the towel.

It would add value to your post if you stated what features you are looking for BD to have.

Are you talking about high bitrate, high capacity, lossless audio? Probably not...

What about interactive features like frame forward? Or jump to time code? Probably not...

I guess it is some feature that is actually more important than these other features...?

Seamless branching?

7.1 audio?

That's baseball! I have been to games where the losing team has a great bottom of the ninth and wins.

The format war may be different. You have to ask yourself exactly what can happen to constitute the "winning home run".

We pretty much know what the major new titles are going to be right now. By September we should have all additional player announcements and pricing.

So it will be left to promotions, price changes, free titles etc. that can constitute ninth inning events. Too late to have a new blockbuster film that was released the June before.

And the vast majority of teams that are trailing in the 9th inning lose!

It would add value to your post if you stated what features you are looking for BD to have.


Mandatory specifications

Mandatory specifications

Of?

And the vast majority of teams that are trailing in the 9th inning lose!

I think a football analogy would be better here.

If it was the 3rd quarter and the score was 70-30 who do you think would win?

And the vast majority of teams that are trailing in the 9th inning lose!


Also true. Statistical studies have been done on this point that show that there is a slight "not over til its over" effect in baseball, but it is slight, and generally, as you say, if you trail going into the bottom of the ninth, you will lose. You have a slightly better chance in baseball than football was the conclusion of the study I remember.

Mandatory specifications

Can you explain what mandatory specifications you are referring to, along with how they are useful and give examples and what percentage of titles take advantage of these mandatory specifications?

Otherwise these are meaningless words. Blu-ray has mandatory specifications as does any format.

If it was the 3rd quarter and the score was 70-30 who do you think would win?

Except we're not in the 3rd quarter, we're either at the end of the 1st quarter or the start of the 2nd quarter. Sony wants Toshiba for forfeit the whole ball game when it isn't even halftime yet! :o

Mandatory specifications

What do mandatory specs mean when LG brings out a dual player that doesn't satisfy the HD DVD specs?

What if tomorrow a chinese company starts selling a $99 player that doesn't satisfy HD DVD specs but that does actually play HD DVD discs (like the LG)? Are you going to complain or just be very disappointed?

It would add value to your post if you stated what features you are looking for BD to have.

Are you talking about high bitrate, high capacity, lossless audio? Probably not...

What about interactive features like frame forward? Or jump to time code? Probably not...

I guess it is some feature that is actually more important than these other features...?

Seamless branching?

7.1 audio?

Lets just say that I consider the alternative format much more "feature finished" than BD. I'm not going to list the numerous things that we all know BD is currently missing because it will just devolve into another BD love fest around here.

BD will get there, eventually.

BD will get there, eventually.

And HD DVD may get companies like LG to adhere to its specs, eventually.

Lets just say that I consider the alternative format much more "feature finished" than BD. I'm not going to list the numerous things that we all know BD is currently missing because it will just devolve into another BD love fest around here.


Is the TL51 part of this finished format? Do you like the fact that the format has no room for improvement?

I think the only reason you don't list the numerous things is that the list is small and pathetic compared the the deficiencies of HD DVD.

You need not worry about a BD love fest here - there is plenty of HD DVD support.

I just find it interesting that HD DVD supporters talk in generalities so often. I prefer specifics, examples and statistics. These kinds of things are much more difficult to be deceptive about.

Facts such as that while HD DVD has 'mandatory' TrueHD support, the actual percentage of lossless audio titles for HD DVD is low - whereas it is over 50% for BD, and 100% for the main BD exclusive studios (Sony, BV, Fox and MGM).

But continue with hand waving and meaningless statements. I am sure that is what HD DVD supporters are counting on for success.

Is the TL51 part of this finished format? Do you like the fact that the format has no room for improvement?

I think the only reason you don't list the numerous things is that the list is small and pathetic compared the the deficiencies of HD DVD.

You need not worry about a BD love fest here - there is plenty of HD DVD support.

I just find it interesting that HD DVD supporters talk in generalities so often. I prefer specifics, examples and statistics. These kinds of things are much more difficult to be deceptive about.

Facts such as that while HD DVD has 'mandatory' TrueHD support, the actual percentage of lossless audio titles for HD DVD is low - whereas it is over 50% for BD, and 100% for the main BD exclusive studios (Sony, BV, Fox and MGM).

But continue with hand waving and meaningless statements. I am sure that is what HD DVD supporters are counting on for success.

Ah, I see, you want to "pick a fight".

OK then, since you are using fighting words... these are the types of things I am referring to;

Mandatory TrueHD support in hardware
Mandatory onboard storage and ethernet for download features
Mandatory Managed Copy
Mandatory 2nd video decoder for PiP
Mandatory HDi support for next gen interactivity
Titles that play in our HD players and in our SD players
Titles that have HD and SD on a single sided disc (twin format)

Now, while I can appreciate that for many of the AV purists here at AVS these things don't matter, you can be assured that they do matter for the vast number of DVD owners who need to see compelling reasons to upgrade to a new format.

AQ/PQ differences between the formats (that require viewing at .5 normal distance for 1080p to even see) won't be enough to steer the typical buyer with his 37" 720P set into a new format. Next gen features and interactive capability is what is going to do that. In fact it's one of the key reasons Disney cited for going exclusive with BD, yet BD has had trouble delivering the experience it seems.

And HD DVD may get companies like LG to adhere to its specs, eventually.

Ya, pick the combo guys who have sold like 1,000 decks and use them to explain why every single BD player to date is about to be completely outmoded by the generation of hardware about to be released. :rolleyes:

Originally Posted by Kosty
Just to add.

These new DVD releases look fantastic upconverted on my HD XA2.

They look better than broadcast cable or sat HD.

Now I can tell, that they are are smidgen below HD DVD or Blu-ray, but with a new restored anamorphic DVD release, my HD XA2 does an amazing job.

I'm sure that people with other HD DVD or Blu-ray players that upconvert, they are experiencing tthe same thing.

....

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin
Uh...no.

Even broadcast cable or sat HD look better than upconverted SD DVD, no matter how good you think your XA2 is, unless you have some really bad overly compressed HD. And even if that is the case, to say that HD-DVD or Blu-ray is only a "smidgen" better than upconverted SD DVD from your XA2 is beyond ridiculous.

If you really feel that way, why bother getting into either of the new HD disc formats....especially at this stage of the game?

Bottom line: there is NO COMPARISON between the PQ of Blu-ray or HD-DVD and upconverted SD DVD. A "smidgen"? Come on!

Bravo! I am surprised with some of the crazy things that get posted on here. It is nice to see someone call a poster out when warrented.

I have seen the oppos, the xa2, and the ps3 upconvert SD DVD. All are much better than the video quality of SD DVD player that I have used in the last several years, but none are even close to HD cable, and it is another step up to Blu-ray quality.

HD video quality is much better than the best of upconverted SD DVD video quality.

Upconversion may be good enough for Kosty, but it is not anywhere good enough for most of us.

If it's between upconversion on my HD-DVD gear or wasting $500+ for a Blu-ray player just to watch Sony, Fox and Disney movies in HD I'm sooooo going to upconvert. :) Thats the point.

I stated HD DVD and Blu-ray are better than upconverted SD DVD, but properly done upconverted DVD is good enough for most people to make it hard to see the difference.

I have have been a bit over the mark, in implying upconverted DVD always looked better, but in many cases in can look better or at least just as good. And if its a DVD that's on your shelf, ready to watch, then good upconversion makes it worth watching again, because its ready to go.

HD DVD also has not been afraid to advertsise and market "and it makes your existing DVDs look better", as part of its positioning. And watching your existing DVD upconverted costs nothing for user, and it may explain a bit current sales if HD DVD and Blu-ray disc prices are too high. People may be watching again their older DVD while waiting for prices to drop.

I plan to get a Blu-ray player in the future and I won't buy a DVD if it is out or coming out on Blu-ray, but I'm sure not going to double dip now or jump into buying a Blu-ray player now when I have hundreds of HD DVDs to watch now and my existing DVD library looks very very good upconverted.

I can tell the differerence between upconverted and HD, but with my HD XA2, its very close if not better than most of my cable and sat HD, and it nevere macroblocks or is chopped out of its OAR to fit a 16:9 screen, And its on my shelf, ready to watch.

My comment was in context of why HD sales may be slow to new owners, and was speculation that many new owners, like myself,may be re-watching their existing libraries on their HD DVD or Blu-ray players while waiting for retail prices to drop and retail shelf space to increase before buying new HD movies.

In short, I surmised that many people, like me, are enjoying their initial HD DVD and Blu-ray purchases and upconverted content for now, until prices drop.

Also, newer anamorphic or Superbit releases look better than old letterbox DVDs.

I would also suggest you demo a HD XA2 or newer Blu-ray player before you compare them to a HD Lite sat broadcast.

I like DISH and DIRECTV HD, but I'm surprised what REALTA HQV upconversion can do with a DVD.

Ya, pick the combo guys who have sold like 1,000 decks and use them to explain why every single BD player to date is about to be completely outmoded by the generation of hardware about to be released. :rolleyes:

No, it just shows that specs mean zilch.

Again, if a chinese company decides to release an ultra cheap player that does not adhere to the specs, there's no one to stop them.

Maybe you have not noticed, but the LG gets described all the time as an HD DVD/Blu ray player even though it does not adhere to the specs. And yes, that means that HD DVD is not enforcing its specs since it could simply forbid the use of the trademark. But it apparently doesn't ... :rolleyes:

No, it just shows that specs mean zilch.

Again, if a chinese company decides to release an ultra cheap player that does not adhere to the specs, there's no one to stop them.

Maybe you have not noticed, but the LG gets described all the time as an HD DVD/Blu ray player even though it does not adhere to the specs. And yes, that means that HD DVD is not enforcing its specs since it could simply forbid the use of the trademark.

Um, they do prevent them from using the HD DVD official logo on the product.


LG came out with their player and it wasn't endorsed by the HD DVD group so although it says "HD DVD" on the player it doesn't bear the HD DVD logo.

Absolutely correct, and with Universal being an almost total loser at the box office over the last year or so, this situation isn't going to change any time soon.

BTW, I am one of those BD buyers that exhibit this apparent behaviour of buying only new releases, as I have little interest in re-purchasing something that I already had on DVD (so I am not really missing all that much on Universal (e.g., Lebowski, Joe Black, Malkovich -- already had 'em on DVD years ago).
YOU FREAK!!!

:)

Mandatory TrueHD support in hardware
And how many titles have lossless audio exactly?
It's funny that the BD discs that usually don't have lossless audio comes from the studios that support both formats (Paramount & Warner).

Mandatory onboard storage and ethernet for download features

Easy when you're a modified laptop. A year into it exactly how many discs have taken advantage of these features? Seems when they do BD players will have the same spec.

Mandatory Managed Copy

BD has this too.

Mandatory 2nd video decodr for PiP

Java can do this (Dragon's Lair)

Mandatory HDi support for next gen interactivity

All BD players have Java.

Titles that play in our HD players and in our SD players

You're talking about the discs that the majority of people *hate* and are the most expensive to produce (more than BD50) and have the most problems with playback, right?

Titles that have HD and SD on a single sided disc (twin format)

Again, how many titles do this? I'll make it even easier, how many non-imports?
BD can do it, nobody wants it.

Now, while I can appreciate that for many of the AV purists here at AVS these things don't matter, you can be assured that they do matter for the vast number of DVD owners who need to see compelling reasons to upgrade to a new format.

NO, the things that matter to JP6 are studio support and a wide variety of hardware. The sales & rental figures seem to agree with this.

Next gen features and interactive capability is what is going to do that. In fact it's one of the key reasons Disney cited for going exclusive with BD, yet BD has had trouble delivering the experience it seems.

Someone better tell Disney before they buy out another ad like this:
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom070807/index.php?startpage=4

I plan to get a Blu-ray player in the future
I fully support this decision, K.

;)

I fully support this decision, K.

;) of course when the darned things become affordable to buy.

Probably not anytime soon. :D

That is based on the fact that I know new Sony and Fox releases will be in Blu-ray and DVD, and I won't buy a DVD now from those studios.

I have now aversion to buying a Blu-ray player, I'd just like to buy one that's worth the money and has all the finished specs implemented in it. :p

Mandatory TrueHD support in hardware
Mandatory onboard storage and ethernet for download features
Mandatory Managed Copy
Mandatory 2nd video decoder for PiP
Mandatory HDi support for next gen interactivity
Titles that play in our HD players and in our SD players
Titles that have HD and SD on a single sided disc (twin format)


Can you tell us the percentage of titles that use each of these?

HDi is on many if not all the titles - and on most of them it is more of a burden than an advantage. You give up being able to frame advance and jump to time code - two very basic interactive features that HDi titles do not seem to be capable of.

So, please tell us what features that are more important than jump to time code and frame advance, that HDi offers on the majority of titles.

Also explain how HDi is in any way superior to BD-J.

And again, what are the percentages of titles on HD DVD that make use of:

PiP
Internet / persistant storage
Managed Copy

For TrueHD, let us know how many channels of TrueHD are mandatory, and how many discs take advantage of Mandatory TrueHD to the extent that they do NOT have any other main audio on the disc.

Then tell me again how in any way Mandatory TrueHD has been an advantage to the format.

As far as combos go - that is a fun one... has this really been an advantage or a burden with higher costs whether you want the DVD side or not and manufacturing issues resulting in customers getting delaminating discs...

BTW, I am not picking a fight. I just want you to demonstrate your ideas. It is supposed to be an intelligent discourse. But that is just my perspective I guess.

Can you tell us the percentage of titles that use each of these?

HDi on many if not all the titles - and on most of them it is more of a burden than an advantage. You give up being able to frame advance and jump to time code - two very basic interactive features that HDi titles do not seem to be capable of.

So, please tell us what features that are more important than jump to time code and frame advance, that HDi offers on the majority of titles.

Also explain how HDi is in any way superior to BD-J.

And again, what are the percentages of titles on HD DVD that make use of:

PiP
Internet / persistant storage
Managed Copy

For TrueHD, let us know how many channels of TrueHD are mandatory, and how many discs take advantage of Mandatory TrueHD to the extent that they do NOT have any other main audio on the disc.

Then tell me again how in any way Mandatory TrueHD has been an advantage to the format.

As far as combos go - that is a fun one... has this really been an advantage or a burden with higher costs whether you want the DVD side or not and manufacturing issues resulting in customers getting delaminating discs...

BTW, I am not picking a fight. I just want you to demonstrate your ideas. It is supposed to be an intelligent discourse. But that is just my perspective I guess.

Ah, so I'm supposed to go and dig up all of the numbers so that you can further dismiss the importance of these features?

:rolleyes:

Here's a news flash for you. One of the top BD titles, POTC was authored with advanced authoring and also can't do resume play or jump to time code. Certainly seems that customers are willing to overlook this discrepency since apparently they are enamored with other things.

Don't even bring up "higher costs" when comparing HD DVD to BD. BD software requires entirely new hardware lines that have no backward compatibility for making the SD DVDs that will continue to be the majority product for the forseeable future. Additionally Sony hasn't been willling to do anything to help private replicators set up BD50 production lines.

Obviously the studios seem to feel these "worthless" features have some merit since WB in particular hasn't been willing to release the "franchise jewels" on BD without including the same features that they've put on the HD DVD discs (Batman Begins, Matrix, etc).

Um, they do prevent them from using the HD DVD official logo on the product.


LG came out with their player and it wasn't endorsed by the HD DVD group so although it says "HD DVD" on the player it doesn't bear the HD DVD logo.

So are you telling me that the HD DVD group does not have the rights to 'HD DVD'??? Surely they do. So they are basically letting players call themselves HD DVD players even if they don't adhere to the specs. The specs buy you the little logo? Big deal when it says clearly HD DVD.

Easy when you're a modified laptop. A year into it exactly how many discs have taken advantage of these features? Seems when they do BD players will have the same spec.


Ah, so the HD DVD player having similar hardware capabilities to a media PC is a disadvantage. Right....

Plenty of discs have taken advantage of these features, as you well know, too many to mention. In fact many top tier releases have been released in HD DVD and not in BD because BD doesn't have these capabilities yet.


BD has this too.

I'm pretty sure that BD+ adoption puts this into question.



Java can do this (Dragon's Lair)

I doubt it as the lack of this feature has held up several high profile releases from BD.

Maybe you can explain why, if this feature already works, they had to put two versions of the movie "Descent" on the BD50, one with the PiP "window" embedded in the video and the other without it?

All BD players have Java.

And we've seen how well that's working;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gQG4OFgrpA


You're talking about the discs that the majority of people *hate* and are the most expensive to produce (more than BD50) and have the most problems with playback, right?

So a bad batch of discs got produced, a.ka. Blu-rot. Recent FW updates have put this to bed. While I'm not a huge fan of combo discs they ARE gaining popular with regular buyers who like the ability to play the disc they bought in both their HD players and their other SD players.



Again, how many titles do this? I'll make it even easier, how many non-imports?
BD can do it, nobody wants it.

Oh ya, I forgot to mention region free being part of the HD DVD spec. Maybe you don't watch imports but many of us do.



NO, the things that matter to JP6 are studio support and a wide variety of hardware. The sales & rental figures seem to agree with this.

Now this is the biggest laugh of all. Bigger variety of hardware? Maybe you can explain why BD standalone sales only account for a meager 7% of BD player sales. That's about as homogenized as it gets.


Someone better tell Disney before they buy out another ad like this:
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom070807/index.php?startpage=4

Ya, well, Disney are huge fans of iron clad DRM, so I can't blame them for going BD. We'll see if they continue to turn their nose up at HD DVD when the standalone base of movie players grows over the next two quarters.

You are just too funny. I think BD will be a good format when it gets its act together but your outright hatred of HD DVD is hilarious. Maybe someone should point out to you that BD is actually being viewed as a failure by many in the industry because the attachment rates are so bad for the PS3. Warner certainly seems to think the PS3 effect is overrated based on the comments their VP of HD media recently made.

HD DVD has made equal gains to BRD. Neither is doing anything different month to month when you look at the last 7 months. Still the same ratio. And it iwll stay this way until more HD DVD players are sold.

Actually for the ratio to remain the same Blu-ray makes double the gain whenever HD DVD makes a gain.

[QUOTE=jmpage2]

Oh ya, I forgot to mention region free being part of the HD DVD spec. Maybe you don't watch imports but many of us do.
QUOTE]

Please give me your estimate of how many, many is.

Do you believe that out weighs the average consumer (who both formats require for acceptance) desire to buy Disney and Fox movies?

What about sales ratios and Top 5? This current discussion does not belong here at all (and is pointless to many of us interested in the sales discussion).

Ah, so the HD DVD player having similar hardware capabilities to a media PC is a disadvantage. Right....

Yes, when it takes an eternity for a player to turn on (boot) and then playing a disc.

Not to mention the random lock-ups and freezes (crashes).

Plenty of discs have taken advantage of these features, as you well know, too many to mention. In fact many top tier releases have been released in HD DVD and not in BD because BD doesn't have these capabilities yet.

I was talking about online features, which exactly one disc, Blood Diamond, takes advantage of. Other than that it's a handful of Warner releases, something that Paramount hasn't had a problem with. The same Warner that drastically restricts video & audio quality to fit on HD DVD and fit those "special" features on the same disc.



I'm pretty sure that BD+ adoption puts this into question.
I doubt it as the lack of this feature has held up several high profile releases from BD.
Maybe you can explain why, if this feature already works, they had to put two versions of the movie "Descent" on the BD50, one with the PiP "window" embedded in the video and the other without it?

Well, perhaps because they had the room? Did it impact picture quality? Nope. AVC *and* uncompressed 6.1 PCM.



And we've seen how well that's working;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gQG4OFgrpA



So a bad batch of discs got produced, a.ka. Blu-rot. Recent FW updates have put this to bed. While I'm not a huge fan of combo discs they ARE gaining popular with regular buyers who like the ability to play the disc they bought in both their HD players and their other SD players.

Seems Blu-rot is an AVS phenom and not industry wide, like red-rings of death and a fatal design flaw from a major HD DVD backer who rushed a unit out on the market to get ahead of the competition.

Who then rushed an add-on that fatally compromised the security of that format allowing hackers to use it with their PCs and pirate their discs at will.

Oh ya, I forgot to mention region free being part of the HD DVD spec. Maybe you don't watch imports but many of us do.

HD DVD owners perhaps. Because they need to get new discs from somewhere...
Guess what? A studio can just as easily code BDs either region free (like Warner) or ABC like many Sony and Disney discs are.

It's this same region free HD DVD owners tout that keeps the studios like Disney away from the format.

Now this is the biggest laugh of all. Bigger variety of hardware? Maybe you can explain why BD standalone sales only account for a meager 7% of BD player sales. That's about as homogenized as it gets.

You still have Samsung, Pioneer, Panasonic, LG and Philips to choose from if you hate Sony (the mantra of the average HD DVD owner). Soon you'll have Sharp and Denon, Mitsubishi and Yamaha as well. All HD DVD owner have to look forward to is a rebaged HD-A20 (Onkyo) and a combo (still a BD player) from Samsung.

Ya, well, Disney are huge fans of iron clad DRM, so I can't blame them for going BD. We'll see if they continue to turn their nose up at HD DVD when the standalone base of movie players grows over the next two quarters.

DRM... :rolleyes:
Who cares about DRM if it's invisible to the consumer? Are you saying all HD DVD owners are hackers & pirates? Because those are the only folks who have problems with the DRM on Blu-ray.

You are just too funny. I think BD will be a good format when it gets its act together but your outright hatred of HD DVD is hilarious. Maybe someone should point out to you that BD is actually being viewed as a failure by many in the industry because the attachment rates are so bad for the PS3. Warner certainly seems to think the PS3 effect is overrated based on the comments their VP of HD media recently made.

VP of Warner, the guy overruled by the rest of Warner when it came to releasing on BD in the first place. I'd like to watch him explain the 2:1 sales numbers of his own product in BD's favor to his bosses.

All HD DVD is doing is prolonging the adoption of HD media by the mainstream consumer and killing its chance of mass adoption due to confusion, giving MS what it wants: downloads.

What about sales ratios and Top 5? This current discussion does not belong here at all (and is pointless to many of us interested in the sales discussion).

You are correct. I don't like wading thru these back and forths either on this thread. :(

I apologize for my off topic post. :o

Ah, so I'm supposed to go and dig up all of the numbers so that you can further dismiss the importance of these features?

:rolleyes:

Aren't you the one that is making the claim that certain mandatory features that hd dvd has makes it superiour to BD? The counterclaim is that so few discs actually use these mandatory features that they are as a whole irrelevant. ie: what's the point of mandatory spec support if they arent even being used?

FWIW, I think the whole downloadable content thing is pretty useless. Not saying that DLC in general is useless, just on a standalone player. I mean seriously, why should I have to go online to DL content that should already be on the disk in the first place? Also, how does one go about managing DLC on the player itself? Is there a file manager? Are you able to backup DLC at all? When the storage space is at full capacity, what happens?

Who then rushed an add-on that fatally compromised the security of that format allowing hackers to use it with their PCs and pirate their discs at will.


Blah Blah Blah.

One Question Quiz.
What is the #1 platform for hacking BD discs?
I'll give you a hint because BD-ROM drives for computers are so insanely expensive it is a common CE device that plays movies and games.

The hack is so easy now essentially you can install a custom linux ISO on the PS3 that will allow you to copy a complete ISO with all hidden keys to a network drive. Once on the network a windows PC running AnyDVD can hack the iso w/o any skill required. The reason the 360 addon was used to hack AACS first is because it was common and cheap allowing hackers to work with similar equipment. BD was first hacked wide open within 2 weeks of HD DVD. The PS3 exploit which makes hacking essentially skillfree and doesn't require a BD drive came less than a month later. Right now there are over 162 title keys available for BD movies. The majority were obtained by ISO ripped from the PS3.

Both formats are broken wide open. When BD+ arrives it will be broken quickly also. Inherently DRM is unsecure. A strong encryption system can work only if
1) key lengths are sufficently complex to avoid brute strength attack
2) algorithm is not weak that would allow the system to be compromised quicker
3) the sender is trusted.
4) the receiver is trusted.

In this case the receiver is the hacker. A hacker has everything on the disc needed to unlock the disc. It may be hidden but hiding code generally never holds out for long. Strong encryption is doesn't require tricks or slight of hand. Encryption is used to protect everything from email to financial records to national secrets. If properly implemented and secured by trustworthy people they are invulernable to hacking attempts. The difference between say the classified material and a movie is that classified material is restricted to people who can be trusted. Movie studios don't require a security clearance in order for you to buy a BD player and media that contains all the information needed to hack the system.

The studios are wrong. BD+ will provide no more protection than AACS does.

What about sales ratios and Top 5? This current discussion does not belong here at all (and is pointless to many of us interested in the sales discussion).

Agreed.

BD was first hacked wide open within 2 weeks of HD DVD

You're ignoring the fact that BD had used the SAME AACS KEY AS HD DVD.

Not some mystery PS3-ISO thing.

Then the second hack came from the add-on and a PC. Again, nobody has mentioned PS3.

You're so sure BD+ will be broken, well I guess we'll see now, won't we?

Yes, mandatory TrueHD support in all HD DVD players is certainly "lagging" since they don't waste huge amounts of disc space doing PCM as a band aid. :rolleyes:

Do you really think that 99% of consumers even know or care about uncompressed audio?

Whatever part of me would love to see HD DVD become a 2nd established format or even eventually dominate HD sales is exactly because of the pretentious attitude of console fans like you.

Spare us the dramatics. :rolleyes:

Mandated support means bugger all if only 20% or less of your format's titles are using it.

7.1 24/96 PCM = 18.432 Mbps

That still leaves over 36 Mbps for video, equal to HD DVD's entire bandwidth.
I'm not sure how if a 24/96 7.1 PCM track can fit in and not affect video quality how it's a handicap at all.

And yes I think probably close to 99% of people who have bought an HD DVD or Blu-ray standalone player care very much about the audio.

Spare us the dramatics. :rolleyes:

Mandated support means bugger all if only 20% or less of your format's titles are using it.

7.1 24/96 PCM = 18.432 Mbps

That still leaves over 36 Mbps for video, equal to HD DVD's entire bandwidth.
I'm not sure how if a 24/96 7.1 PCM track can fit in and not affect video quality how it's a handicap at all.

And yes I think probably close to 99% of people who have bought an HD DVD or Blu-ray standalone player care very much about the audio.

Just want to point out that 36Mbps is hd-dvds max READ spead, all media (Video + audio) must be not a drop over 30Mbps.

Just want to point out that 36Mbps is hd-dvds max READ spead, all media (Video + audio) must be not a drop over 30Mbps.

Thanks for pointing that out, I did not know that.

Thank God for Blu.

All HD DVD is doing is prolonging the adoption of HD media by the mainstream consumer and killing its chance of mass adoption due to confusion, giving MS what it wants: downloads.

BINGO!! The HDDVD supporters are too naive to realize this. They've been chugging the M$ koolaid by the jug full.

I made the following statement in response to a post that still had nothing to do with this thread, claiming that HD DVD "hold outs" were holding up HDM adoption;

I think that BD has to catch up to HD DVD in features, etc, before HD DVD should consider throwing in the towel.

And look at what happens, giant blu ****-storm comes down. The Smurf posse shows up in force any time there is the slightest criticism of their darling format, spouting bologna and failing to acknowledge that the only BD player worth a darn is an underperforming game console. I see that Jokey, Fanboi and Grouchy Smurf showed up, but I don't see any posts from Brainy Smurf just yet.

You guys have fun high fiving each other. HD DVD having recently passed 225K standalones must have you guys worried or upset or something. I don't know what else could create such alarm in a thread that's supposed to be about the software sales numbers.

Guess what guys? Many HD DVD fans are not as stupid as you seem to think. They are willing to embrace BD (or at least accept it) when it produces a feature complete player that is not a game console.

Where your outright hatred of a movie format comes from is beyond me (maybe some infantile extension of MS hatred or something).

I made the following statement in response to a post that still had nothing to do with this thread, claiming that HD DVD "hold outs" were holding up HDM adoption;



And look at what happens, giant blu ****-storm comes down. The Smurf posse shows up in force any time there is the slightest criticism of their darling format, spouting bologna and failing to acknowledge that the only BD player worth a darn is an underperforming game console. I see that Jokey, Fanboi and Grouchy Smurf showed up, but I don't see any posts from Brainy Smurf just yet.

You guys have fun high fiving each other. HD DVD having recently passed 225K standalones must have you guys worried or upset or something. I don't know what else could create such alarm in a thread that's supposed to be about the software sales numbers.

Guess what guys? Many HD DVD fans are not as stupid as you seem to think. They are willing to embrace BD (or at least accept it) when it produces a feature complete player that is not a game console.

Where your outright hatred of a movie format comes from is beyond me (maybe some infantile extension of MS hatred or something).

Couldn't of said it better. I have no problem with eventually owning a Blu-Ray player... but seeing the irrational hatred of HD DVD is so bizarre

another who thinks that PS3s is only for games :) I wonder

engadgethd had a story up that only 13% use game machines to watch movies.

Where your outright hatred of a movie format comes from is beyond me (maybe some infantile extension of MS hatred or something).

Once some people pick a side they are beyond logical thought and only root for their team for fear of a judgemental failure. They only set themselves up for eventual depression ... not necessarily from a failed format but frmo the countless other decisions they make in life that will go against them with this persistent win at all cost attitude.

engadgethd had a story up that only 13% use game machines to watch movies.
That covered DVD only and being a decade since DVD arrived, I'm surprised it is even that high.

uff :) more HD DVD players then PS3s ? :) great, you mean $99 blu-ray chinesse players right ?

so PS3s will stop selling, Blu-ray standalones will stop selling, no blockbusters will come out in Q4 :) and THEN the gap will start closing......., since nothing of this is happening, no closing is happenig

Marek

all is needed is the HD DVD player price to drop...ps3 can keep selling..but HD DVD players will sell at a higher rate

stand alone movie players will pass the game machine numbers...even if it takes a couple years more homes watch movies then play games.

all is needed is the HD DVD player price to drop...ps3 can keep selling..but HD DVD players will sell at a higher rate


And somehow, I imagine that disc sales will STILL stay at 60:40-70:30 in favor of Blu-ray. ;)

Plenty of discs have taken advantage of these features, as you well know, too many to mention.

Ok, if you don't want to mention them, how about a number, or a percentage?

Do you even know how many discs there are with advanced features?

Maybe you can explain why, if this feature already works, they had to put two versions of the movie "Descent" on the BD50, one with the PiP "window" embedded in the video and the other without it?


I assume you realise that most if not all of the Warner IME releases could be replicated using this method with no drop in bitrate for the movie - some like V for Vendetta could additionally include PCM audio and be well within 50 GB for two copies of the movie, all the extras and PCM audio.

I made the following statement in response to a post that still had nothing to do with this thread, claiming that HD DVD "hold outs" were holding up HDM adoption;



And look at what happens, giant blu ****-storm comes down. The Smurf posse shows up in force any time there is the slightest criticism of their darling format, spouting bologna and failing to acknowledge that the only BD player worth a darn is an underperforming game console. I see that Jokey, Fanboi and Grouchy Smurf showed up, but I don't see any posts from Brainy Smurf just yet.

You guys have fun high fiving each other. HD DVD having recently passed 225K standalones must have you guys worried or upset or something. I don't know what else could create such alarm in a thread that's supposed to be about the software sales numbers.

Guess what guys? Many HD DVD fans are not as stupid as you seem to think. They are willing to embrace BD (or at least accept it) when it produces a feature complete player that is not a game console.

Where your outright hatred of a movie format comes from is beyond me (maybe some infantile extension of MS hatred or something).No, we in the Blu Ray community don't want to see any more buyers being conned into buying a format that is only going to live for possibly another year. HD DVD can only view 50% of the available movies and is one meeting, at Universal, away from being obsolete.

And somehow, I imagine that disc sales will STILL stay at 60:40-70:30 in favor of Blu-ray. ;)
I'll point out that's quite a spread you've set there.

More specifically, if HD DVD player sales continue like that, you won't be seeing many 70:30 weeks in the future. And 60:40 will be a lot more frequent (on the way to 55:45)...

Ah, so I'm supposed to go and dig up all of the numbers so that you can further dismiss the importance of these features?


A lack of these numbers shows that either you don't know what you are talking about or that you don't want to present the numbers.

You are the person trying to make a point. But you seem to have no interest in actually backing up your point with any data.

I find that strange.


Here's a news flash for you. One of the top BD titles, POTC was authored with advanced authoring and also can't do resume play or jump to time code.


Are you sure it does not jump to time code? I have used that feature on BD-J discs. My copies are loaned out right now so I can't test it with that title. But you should be sure of your facts. HDi does not allow jump to time code but BD-J in my experience does.

I never mentioned resume from stop - thought this works on a much greater percentage of BD titles than it does on HD DVD titles.


Don't even bring up "higher costs" when comparing HD DVD to BD.


I didn't mention that - though now that you bring it up, isn't it ironic that the HD DVD of Warner combos routinely costs more than the BD - when HD DVD is supposed to be the cost saving format?


Obviously the studios seem to feel these "worthless" features have some merit since WB in particular hasn't been willing to release the "franchise jewels" on BD without including the same features that they've put on the HD DVD discs (Batman Begins, Matrix, etc).

Examples! Excellent! So we have 2 out of 262 titles with IME - that is less than 1 % I know there are more... but how many more? This is the question.

If you are not interested enough to support your argument with facts and statistics, perhaps someone else will help out.

How many IME titles?
How many TrueHD titles with no DD+ on the same disc?

These are the questions....

NO, the things that matter to JP6 are studio support and a wide variety of hardware. The sales & rental figures seem to agree with this.



Someone better tell Disney before they buy out another ad like this:
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom070807/index.php?startpage=4

No...what avg joe wants is to save money..then when HD DVD sales are high enough...the studios will come to HD DVD to increase profits.

Yes the same for universal...the question is what is the magical number..probably different per studio...just like different magical price points for consumer...but when HD DVD gets to say 2mil we could see another neutral studio...someone else may go neutral at 2.5 mil

So J6P is in control not the studios...and Joe wants a cheap player that doesn't cost a family vacation to put in his living room.

Oh ya, I forgot to mention region free being part of the HD DVD spec. Maybe you don't watch imports but many of us do.


The statistics to date indicate that almost 3/4 of US released BDs are region free.

You will notice my use of numbers and facts to refute your position. This is what I have been talking about.

So way more than half of the discs are region free - hardly makes a compelling argument for HD DVD.

Fox is the key user of region codes, with all of their discs being region locked.

The lack of the possibility of region code for HD DVD means that studios that use the feature will not release on the format.

There is a compelling argument that mandatory region free is not good for the HD DVD format.

If we look at Sony we see that 75% of their titles are region free - demonstrating a judicious use of the region code.

For Disney it is a little under half that are region free, indicating that like Fox they are fond of the feature, but still have almost half of their titles region free.

Also, after a year of release the region code must be discontinued, so if you are patient, those new release import titles will become playable on your player.

So J6P is in control not the studios...and Joe wants a cheap player that doesn't cost a family vacation to put in his living room.

If Joe is smart, he won't buy a player that is never going to have half of the current 2007 box office no matter how cheap it is.

And studios care a lot about their assets. They don't want to make money if it means losing money to piracy and through lost box office earnings due to no region controls for movies that are released on discs in the USA before they reach foreign cinemas.

If it is all about money - sure, you can sell your family into slavery. But sometimes it is not all about money.

And look at what happens, giant blu ****-storm comes down. The Smurf posse shows up in force any time there is the slightest criticism of their darling format, spouting bologna and failing to acknowledge that the only BD player worth a darn is an underperforming game console. I see that Jokey, Fanboi and Grouchy Smurf showed up, but I don't see any posts from Brainy Smurf just yet.

Guess what guys? Many HD DVD fans are not as stupid as you seem to think.


Yet they seem to be incapable of backing up a single argument with facts and statistics that support their point of view, instead resorting to insults.

It seems to me that the smurf posse have basically refuted every point you have made, for the most part using calm tones and reasoned arguments.

I haven't seen any examples of the hatred you say you have received - but then again it seems that insults are your strong point rather than the use of examples or facts to back up anything you have to say.

BTW, I don't own a PS3 or a 360... just so you know...

If Joe is smart, he won't buy a player that is never going to have half of the current 2007 box office no matter how cheap it is.

Joe IS smart and has already bought the one format that can play ALL movies (box office champs as well as studio duds that people no longer going to movies discover in home video, like "Smokin' Aces"): DVD. :rolleyes:

More specifically, if HD DVD player sales continue like that, you won't be seeing many 70:30 weeks in the future. And 60:40 will be a lot more frequent (on the way to 55:45)...

We have been waiting for some time for this to happen.

Yet we still wait.

Are you in the mood to set a new deadline?