Ok - let's try an easy experiment (that will also get us back on track... :)

Top 5 - both formats for this week...

On the BD side we have:

Ghostrider
Pirates DMC
Planet Earth
The Patriot
Pirates CotBP

On the HD DVD side we have:

Blood Diamond
Planet Earth
Batman Begins
Untouchables
Black Snake Moan

So. on BD, 4 of the 5 titles have lossless audio. On the HD DVD side there are 2 out of 5 with TrueHD. Interestingly enough, neither of these two titles takes advantage of the 'mandatory TrueHD' and include a 'back up' in the form of Dolby Digital plus sound tracks.

On both sides, we have 2 out of the 5 with advanced features.

One of the HD DVDs has not been released on BD, the other has but without the IME and other HDi features.

Only one of the top 5 BDs is also released on HD DVD.

4 out of 5 are from BD exclusive studios Sony and Disney. All of those 4 titles are high bitrate AVC encodes on BD50 discs and have lossless audio.

It seems that none of the top 5 HD DVDs are Combo discs.

And none are Universal Studios titles.

Any corrections? I am sure there are facts here to support both sides, though the only features of HD DVD that seem to have any importance here are PiP and perhaps internet connectivity. Both of these features are coming to Blu-ray disc later in the year, timed to be ready for the holiday season. At that point, I don't see any advantage that HD DVD will hold.

But in the mean time, lets follow the top sales and see what features are actually important to consumers - I believe that in reality, the title of the movie counts so much more than any other feature, all of these other aspects of the releases are effectively 'in the noise'.

We have been waiting for some time for this to happen.

Yet we still wait.

Are you in the mood to set a new deadline?

Ahhhh next week... no... ahhhhh the week after the next... no no wait.... ahhhhhhhhh the week after that... ;)

And somehow, I imagine that disc sales will STILL stay at 60:40-70:30 in favor of Blu-ray. ;)

hmmm..I imagine that HD DVD will pass blu ray in sales :rolleyes:

hmmm..I imagine that HD DVD will pass blu ray in sales :rolleyes:

I imagine your crack cocaine dealer must love your business.

If Joe is smart, he won't buy a player that is never going to have half of the current 2007 box office no matter how cheap it is.

And studios care a lot about their assets. They don't want to make money if it means losing money to piracy and through lost box office earnings due to no region controls for movies that are released on discs in the USA before they reach foreign cinemas.

If it is all about money - sure, you can sell your family into slavery. But sometimes it is not all about money.

You can't say never..cause the studios will go where they can make money.

no disk is hacker proof...they will all end up on the black market...or ebay

Like consumers have never purchased a player specific to a different region to have access to those movies

Originally Posted by UxiSXRD
And somehow, I imagine that disc sales will STILL stay at 60:40-70:30 in favor of Blu-ray.



hmmm..I imagine that HD DVD will pass blu ray in sales


I imagine your crack cocaine dealer must love your business.

I was being a smarta$ since we all can imagine anything on how we want it to go.

Yet they seem to be incapable of backing up a single argument with facts and statistics that support their point of view, instead resorting to insults.

It seems to me that the smurf posse have basically refuted every point you have made, for the most part using calm tones and reasoned arguments.

I haven't seen any examples of the hatred you say you have received - but then again it seems that insults are your strong point rather than the use of examples or facts to back up anything you have to say.

BTW, I don't own a PS3 or a 360... just so you know...

I have provided plenty of facts you and others just choose to argue that they are insignificant facts. BD does have the deficiencies that I mentioned just as HD DVD has its own issues.

You want percentages and statistical data? Go gather the information yourself from the HD DVD software forum. I don't know what you do professionally, but I'm an engineer and not an accountant. Far more interested in the technology than with counting beans.

For the record many, many HD DVD titles have advanced features with U-control or other forms of IME.

Breach
Batman Begins
Matrix
Smokin Aces
Constantine
F&F Tokyo Drift
300
Blood Diamond
Children of Men
Alpha Dog
Freedom Vol I

And many many MANY others (those were just the ones that popped into my head in the first thirty seconds).

Some of the most anticipated HD DVD releases coming out such as '300', 'Heroes Season 1' and 'Star Trek Original Series' are going to release with advanced features that currently can't be done on BD.

If these features are meaningless to you then don't buy the software but please stop being dismissive of these capabilities as worthless. The studious obviously feel that it's a big deal to include such features and I wonder why, maybe it's because some of the studios have figured out that AQ/PQ alone won't convert regular consumers to HDM.

What about the ability to download a language pack or related titles list for a feature to your HDM player?

What about the ability to download special features that are later added to a feature?

Or book mark your favorite scenes and send them to a friend?

These are all features that HD DVD can do today that seem absent on BD. While many BD proponents at AVS only care about the feature and constantly claim bitrate trumps all it would seem that certain highly paid studio executives disagree with them on this subject.

HDM will never replace the DVD base based solely on AQ/PQ differences that many consumers consider "marginal". HDM will replace DVD if it offers a DIFFERENT EXPERIENCE THAN DVD DOES.

BD today is effectively DVD+. It's DVD with 1080P support and high bitrates. Great for afficienados but not necessarily any more sustainable than Laser Disc was.

And by the way, I don't know what your problem is but you really don't need to take 10 posts to reply to a single post.

You want percentages and statistical data? Go gather the information yourself from the HD DVD software forum. I don't know what you do professionally, but I'm an engineer and not an accountant. Far more interested in the technology than with counting beans.

I am an engineer.

For the record many, many HD DVD titles have advanced features with U-control or other forms of IME.

Breach
Batman Begins
Matrix
Smokin Aces
Constantine
F&F Tokyo Drift
300
Blood Diamond
Children of Men
Alpha Dog
Freedom Vol I

And many many MANY others (those were just the ones that popped into my head in the first thirty seconds).


Well done. You are now up to 11 / 262, which is almost 5%!


Some of the most anticipated HD DVD releases coming out such as '300', 'Heroes Season 1' and 'Star Trek Original Series' are going to release with advanced features that currently can't be done on BD.


Do you think that any of these features will be HD DVD exclusive after the profile 1.1 players are released?

The reason I replied with different posts is to separate out the issues rather than make one giant post with all of them mashed in together.

Also, an engineer that is not interested in sales and marketability of their great technologies often fail even if the technology is strong. You need a customer.

And you are right, many of your facts are not significant. This is demonstrated by the sales facts, and the facts of the releases by the HD DVD studios.

BTW, I have an HD DVD statistic site planned also. So eventually you will not have to wonder about these statistics...

BTW, I have an HD DVD statistic site planned also. So eventually you will not have to wonder about these statistics...
Your Blu-ray site is awesome btw Phloyd. A great resource. Hopefully you can keep it up-to-date. :D

Ahhhh next week... no... ahhhhh the week after the next... no no wait.... ahhhhhhhhh the week after that... ;)

The ever-persistent rdjam has already started beating the drum of "It'll be interesting to see where the numbers fall back to when the BD disc promo ends". The promo ends 9/30, and this past week was responsible for exactly 0 of the top 10. And given the craptacular titles, that 0 of 10 isn't gonna change. Might not even be the point - it's quite possible Sony may be just trying to drive home the idea of using the PS3 as a movie system to existing users to drive greater PS3/Blu-ray penetration in general.

Thanks. I plan to keep it up to date. Loading the data was time consuming but it should be easy to keep it going now that the large part is done.

A friend of mine wanted an HD DVD equivalent so I am offering to host it but not to load the database... too much work...! :)

But I will make it similarly interactive... I think it will be really interesting to be able to draw comparisons...

engadgethd had a story up that only 13% use game machines to watch movies.

We know this attach rate. For the PS3, the Blu-ray attach rate is 1:4, compared to a 1:1 ratio for standalone players. So this Holiday season, if Sony sells 4M PS3s, one would expect to see a Blu-ray software sales impact from that the same as if they'd have sold ~1M standalones. If they sell 2M PS3s this Christmas, it'd be the equivalent of 500K standalones. And so on. Heckuva Trojan Horse, as we've seen so far - Even though it's getting crushed by the 360/Wii, it's been single-handedly winning the format war for them.

The source of the 4:1 ratio was a Toshiba press release a month or two back.

The promo ends 9/30, and this past week was responsible for exactly 0 of the top 10. And given the craptacular titles, that 0 of 10 isn't gonna change. Might not even be the point - it's quite possible Sony may be just trying to drive home the idea of using the PS3 as a movie system to existing users to drive greater PS3/Blu-ray penetration in general.

I don't think that any of the mailed out discs count into Videoscan so I would not expect these titles to show up in the Top 10.

I agree that Sony wants people to know about the capabilities of the PS3 and Blu-ray movies, though remember it is not just Sony and PS3 - all BD players qualify. So it is also in part an effort to move Blu-ray hardware of any kind.

I am an engineer.

And also a smart aleck apparently, as you know there are far more than 11 HD DVD titles with interactive features.

Do you think that any of these features will be HD DVD exclusive after the profile 1.1 players are released?

Of course not. What did I originally post? That HD DVD need not throw in the towel until BD gets those features. We all know that 1.1 BD hardware and software is on the way. What we don't know are the details about those products and how they will stack up to their HD DVD counterparts.

And you are right, many of your facts are not significant. This is demonstrated by the sales facts, and the facts of the releases by the HD DVD studios.

Ah. Like the fact that 1.6M PS3s + over 100K BD standalones can only pull a 60/40 weekly advantage against 220K HD DVD standalones and ~ 160K X360 add-ons?

WOW. that sure is a substantial lead considering all that extra hardware. Golly gosh, color me impressed.


BTW, I have an HD DVD statistic site planned also. So eventually you will not have to wonder about these statistics...

Good for you. Hopefully you will choose to be more objective about it than you've been here, calculating percentages of HD DVDs with special features based on how many I can pull from my memory on short notice. :rolleyes:

We know this attach rate. For the PS3, the Blu-ray attach rate is 1:4, compared to a 1:1 ratio for standalone players. So this Holiday season, if Sony sells 4M PS3s, one would expect to see a Blu-ray software sales impact from that the same as if they'd have sold ~1M standalones. If they sell 2M PS3s this Christmas, it'd be the equivalent of 500K standalones. And so on. Heckuva Trojan Horse, as we've seen so far - Even though it's getting crushed by the 360/Wii, it's been single-handedly winning the format war for them.

The source of the 4:1 ratio was a Toshiba press release a month or two back.

Absolutely correct. I think it's a bit optimistic to assume that Sony can move 4M consoles during the holidays when they've only sold a little over 1.5M in the past 7 months but I am sure Sony wants to believe they can sell 4M.

Lets say Sony sells 4M PS3s between now and the end of the year in the US. The next question is do you think it's possible for Tosh and friends to sell ~1M HD DVD players in the same period of time? At $299 Tosh seemed to be able to sell approximately 15K players per week, and that was a sales spike, so that won't cut it.

$199 or $149 from them or others could do it though.

And also a smart aleck apparently, as you know there are far more than 11 HD DVD titles with interactive features.

Insert return insult here ;)

Ah. Like the fact that 1.6M PS3s + over 100K BD standalones can only pull a 60/40 weekly advantage against 220K HD DVD standalones and ~ 160K X360 add-ons?

WOW. that sure is a substantial lead considering all that extra hardware. Golly gosh, color me impressed.

I don't recall this being part of the discussion - are you running out of ideas for the original discussion?

Do you have anything to say about the analysis of the top 5 titles for this last week?

Do you think HD DVDs temporary technological advantages are key or are largely irrelevant in the overall scheme of things?


Good for you. Hopefully you will choose to be more objective about it than you've been here, calculating percentages of HD DVDs with special features based on how many I can pull from my memory on short notice. :rolleyes:

You ability or lack thereof to demonstrate your points with facts is not my problem.

When I present the statistics they will be as complete and accurate as possible.

Ah. Like the fact that 1.6M PS3s + over 100K BD standalones can only pull a 60/40 weekly advantage against 220K HD DVD standalones and ~ 160K X360 add-ons?
If you are going to try and compare the number of players vs software sold ratio, you might want to use the period when those players actually existed on the market. That brings the weekly advantage to an average 67/33 which is 2:1. Considering it has been like that for 6 months, I think the BD group is fairly comfortable in knowing they will hold at least that ratio all the while the BD hardware drops in price removing, really, the last advantage HD DVD has just in time for the holiday boom.

We know this attach rate. For the PS3, the Blu-ray attach rate is 1:4, compared to a 1:1 ratio for standalone players. So this Holiday season, if Sony sells 4M PS3s, one would expect to see a Blu-ray software sales impact from that the same as if they'd have sold ~1M standalones. If they sell 2M PS3s this Christmas, it'd be the equivalent of 500K standalones. And so on. Heckuva Trojan Horse, as we've seen so far - Even though it's getting crushed by the 360/Wii, it's been single-handedly winning the format war for them.

The source of the 4:1 ratio was a Toshiba press release a month or two back.

The problem with that is in the past some bought ps3 as it was the cheapest way to watch BD...but now with the $488 player (if it has been less forgive me..this is the last price i saw a posting for on a deal site) the ps3 is no longer the cheapest bd player on market...and i bet BD has a $399 player before we see a $399 PS3...so as PS3 looses the spot of cheapest player..then the BD attach rate will prob get worse on the PS3

The problem with that is in the past some bought ps3 as it was the cheapest way to watch BD...but now with the $488 player (if it has been less forgive me..this is the last price i saw a posting for on a deal site) the ps3 is no longer the cheapest bd player on market...and i bet BD has a $399 player before we see a $399 PS3...so as PS3 looses the spot of cheapest player..then the BD attach rate will prob get worseYou'll most likely see it balanced out by those who bought it primarily for games discovering BD when they finally get around to buying an HDTV or the studios put out titles that interest them. As it stands now there is pretty much nothing of any interest for gamers that they won't already have on DVD.

Initial post updated.

I have also added the chart listing relative sales of 'neutral releases' in the first post.

If Joe is smart, he won't buy a player that is never going to have half of the current 2007 box office no matter how cheap it is.

And studios care a lot about their assets. They don't want to make money if it means losing money to piracy and through lost box office earnings due to no region controls for movies that are released on discs in the USA before they reach foreign cinemas.

If it is all about money - sure, you can sell your family into slavery. But sometimes it is not all about money.

If they are concerned about piracy how come even BD exclusive studios are announcing titles on DVD but not BD?

Any HD player you buy whether BD or HD DVD, you're going to be able to watch any movie that is released. The difference is in the ratio of SD upconverted v. HD movies that you can watch.

Amazing as it may seem after all the BD FUD, there are as many movies out on HD DVD (and more movies that can be played in HD format on any given player) than on BD - so the question really is whether you want to watch more of the recent movies in HD v. upconverted or the catalog titles...

As long as the PS3 makes up over 70% of all HD hardware sold you're going to have more BD movies sold - its just simple math. However, just like it was the case with DVD the future will be decided by standalone set top boxes. Only when standalone boxes start outselling a game console will this be a legitimate format war...fought in the mainstream.

Right now the market for both formats are too small and almost irrelevant for the studios. The recent release schedule of the BD exclusive studios should eliminate any shadow of doubt that they are NOT taking BD seriously yet. It's more like a lab experiment for now....

% means nothing to a studio, $ and profits mean everything.

Much of the recent banter has been OT, but it's been quite amusing watching the resident troll get completely smacked around by Phloyd. :D


I would ask respectfully that we get back and stay ON TOPIC

Thanks

The statistics to date indicate that almost 3/4 of US released BDs are region free.

You will notice my use of numbers and facts to refute your position. This is what I have been talking about.



This is my favorite of all the "Phloyd Logic".

Who cares if the BDs released in your region are region free? They're gonna play anyway. Its the other regions we care about!!

I must say you really "refuted" that guy's position with that one. Wow, your logic is dizzying!

Right now the market for both formats are too small and almost irrelevant for the studios. The recent release schedule of the BD exclusive studios should eliminate any shadow of doubt that they are NOT taking BD seriously yet. It's more like a lab experiment for now....

% means nothing to a studio, $ and profits mean everything.

One of the most sane comments I have read in awhile.

Right now the HD-DVD and Blu-Ray sales for the studios are like finding a nickle and a penny on the ground. Sure the nickle is more but, neither are significant.

The sales ratios are good entertainment and fun to debate about but right now they do not mean anything to the studios. As plazman said "$ and profits mean everything".

From the Video Business article on the first half (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6460224.html)

Hidef just overtook VHS!! Yay!

As long as the PS3 makes up over 70% of all HD hardware sold you're going to have more BD movies sold - its just simple math. However, just like it was the case with DVD the future will be decided by standalone set top boxes. Only when standalone boxes start outselling a game console will this be a legitimate format war...fought in the mainstream.
It would be necessary to see real numbers of sales to each platform to prove this, but I doubt anyone will challenge you. But in guessing, if the number of each platform doubled by this time next year, what would be the disk sales ratio?

I believe if BD must continue to rely on the PS3, they will lose.

From the Video Business article on the first half (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6460224.html)

Hidef just overtook VHS!! Yay!


:confused:

That was a nice article about how sales & rentals of DVD's are down 6.5% so far this year, but I don't see anything about hidef or VHS.

I believe if BD must continue to rely on the PS3, they will lose.
Why is it that folks like yourself and Plaz cannot understand there is a sizable percentage of PS3 owners that bought their PS3 solely as a substitute for a standalone set top box??? I don't know what the percentage is, but I know there are many PS3's out there that were purchased without any intention of ever being used for gaming... I know first hand and I'm certainly not alone.

:confused:

That was a nice article about how sales & rentals of DVD's are down 6.5% so far this year, but I don't see anything about hidef or VHS.

The scroll bar is your friend. ;)

Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD sales, meanwhile, overtook VHS, which has dragged down the business in previous years.

Sliding DVD sales are putting more pressure on studios to develop the high-def market in the fourth quarter.

“What is likely to happen as the business starts to flatten or trend downward, is it becomes less exciting for retail and they dedicate less space to it,” SPHE worldwide president David Bishop said. The best way to create new excitement is with Blu-ray, he added.

Most studios plan to release movies day-and-date on DVD and one or both of the high-def formats in the fourth quarter. DreamWorks and New Line are the only studios yet to announce high-def releases.

Execs acknowledge that eventually high-def disc sales will start to cannibalize DVD as consumers upgrade to the new format, but they don’t expect that to happen this year.

Amazing as it may seem after all the BD FUD, there are as many movies out on HD DVD (and more movies that can be played in HD format on any given player) than on BD


Do you have numbers to back up this statement?

Considering that there are more BD titles released and HD DVD has more fish tanks discs, I find this statement difficult to believe.


% means nothing to a studio, $ and profits mean everything.

Perhaps $$$ is your only consideration - I believe that the studios are also concerned about the protection of their assets. This translates to $$$ also, but it is something that HD DVD fan seems to ignore on a regular basis.

This is my favorite of all the "Phloyd Logic".

Who cares if the BDs released in your region are region free? They're gonna play anyway. Its the other regions we care about!!

I must say you really "refuted" that guy's position with that one. Wow, your logic is dizzying!

Thanks for the information free post. Who is to say what region any given person is in?

In any case, the region free after one year applies to all BDs internationally.

More than half of the 'Region B' discs are also region free.

So, what was your point again?

Couldn't of said it better. I have no problem with eventually owning a Blu-Ray player... but seeing the irrational hatred of HD DVD is so bizarre Me too. I just love HD.

Too me, the HD DVD players are delivering so far, for example my HD XA2 is by far the best DVD player I ever owned, ( and it does HD DVD too.) and startup time, response time crash bitches are just FUD from people that don't own one IMHO.

I'll buy a Blu-ray player when I see one worth buying that a fair value for the money that includes a full feature set of BD Live etc.....

Meanwhile I have more than enough HD DVD and upconverted stuff to watch.

And somehow, I imagine that disc sales will STILL stay at 60:40-70:30 in favor of Blu-ray. ;) probably not.

Maybe that's what the Blu-ray fans are so afraid of, what the future will hold when HD DVD players sell at mass market prices this fall.

Its the uncertainty of what happens to HD sales ratios when more and more HD DVD players are sold.

Granted, that hasn't happened yet for a number of reasons, but why the emotion if you are certain that HD DVD will die a natural death?

No, we in the Blu Ray community don't want to see any more buyers being conned into buying a format that is only going to live for possibly another year. HD DVD can only view 50% of the available movies and is one meeting, at Universal, away from being obsolete. What about consumer choice?

I'm sooooooo glad, you have become a protector of consumers. Don't you believe in the free market and competition, or are so arrogant that you can deetermine what is best fro everyone. :rolleyes:

I for one am perfectly satisfied with my HD DVD player for its performance and value and have no second thoughts.

betcha a lot of the early Samsung Blu-ray player owners can't say that....... :p

Pretty please, with sugar on top:

Stay on the f***ing topic.



(note - the above is not meant to be rude but is a movie homage. ;) )

HD DVD can only view 50% of the available movies
So, people should instead buy BD, which can only view 50% of the available movies?
Yea, that makes alot of sense.
J

Pretty please, with sugar on top:

Stay on the f***ing topic.

Even sweet, kind-hearted and melow Grubert has turned postal on us! What has this war done to us??!! :rolleyes:

Even sweet, kind-hearted and melow Grubert has turned postal on us! What has this war done to us??!! :rolleyes:

OK how about this:

we respectfully ask you kindly to stay On Topic please :)

Why is it that folks like yourself and Plaz cannot understand there is a sizable percentage of PS3 owners that bought their PS3 solely as a substitute for a standalone set top box??? I don't know what the percentage is, but I know there are many PS3's out there that were purchased without any intention of ever being used for gaming... I know first hand and I'm certainly not alone.


True.

But that means that a part of the the initial batch of PS3 owners ( second wave in Jan probably when the PS3s were available more) was really a substitute for Blu-ray standalone player owners.

Say that was about SWAGish 50,000 PS3 owners. Those were about equal to the first gen HD DVD owners.

But that s a one time shot for PS3 Blu-ray movie watching ownership. The other 1,450,000 (?) PS3 owners are similiar in that they did not buy the PS3 as a dedicated movie player and its not attached to their big screen home theater HDTV or projector.

Since standalone Blu-ray players are still small, and the PS3 owners that bought the player as a dedicated system are probably buying movies near the same rate as their standalone HD DVD brethern, and BD:HD DVD sales are 65:35 then that means that the vast majority and large number of PS3 owners ( say 1,450,000 + ) are only buying movies at the sames rate as the vastly smaller of standalone owners in either format.

So the vast majority of PS3 owners, which probably are 10 to 20 times as numerous as the owners who bought a PS3 or other standalone as a dedicated movie player, are buying movies at only 5-10% the rate as the dedicated owners.

Thats one of the issues with the PS3 as a Trojan Horse, you are asking consumers to change their behavior after the sale. That is very very hard to do, and its never been attempted on this scale before.

The PS3 has by sheer numbers, mangaed to drive HD sales so far, but the overall volumes have stayed small.

As the battle shifts to standalone sales, the issue of price of teh hardware and volume of mass consumer sales of standalone players becomes more important.

HD DVD is still priced less and will probably sell more standalone players in the coming months. As the number of HD DVD players gets higher and higher and goes over 1,000,000 then more and more retail support in the way of lower disc prices and more shelf space and inventory will follow. Same will happen , at a slower pace , as lower priced Blu-ray prices gain traction.

Bottom line is disc sales of both formats will probably increase as sales of dedicated players rise.

Pretty please, with sugar on top:

Stay on the f***ing topic.



(note - the above is not meant to be rude but is a movie homage. ;) )

If only we could call The Wolf, he'd be here in 10 minutes and things would be cleaned up before Bonnie gets home.

06/10 66/34 67/33 59/41
06/17 64/36 67/33 59/41
06/24 70/30 67/33 59/41
07/01 65/35 67/33 60/40
07/08 66/34 67/33 60/40

66/35 seems to be the new set point in the sales ratio, with 4/5 of the last few weeks within 1% of that mark.

That seems to be the trend for this quarter.

Comments?

06/10 66/34 67/33 59/41
06/17 64/36 67/33 59/41
06/24 70/30 67/33 59/41
07/01 65/35 67/33 60/40
07/08 66/34 67/33 60/40

66/35 seems to be the new set point in the sales ratio, with 4/5 of the last few weeks within 1% of that mark.

Comments?

My comment is, where is the effect from the 70,000 new HD DVD standalone players?

65/35 will not hold for the next two weeks.

The figures coming up have 4 HD DVDs released and 0 BDs, the ratio could hold at 65/35, but the following week there are 4 BD and 0 HD DVD, I forsee it back at 70/30.

IMHO we are going to see a lot more 70/30 and beyond in the very near future (I predict by august it will stay above 70/30).

don't forget , that sony lowered the price of ps3 and is selling out in most places. that for sure can take into a account higher BD sales

My comment is, where is the effect from the 70,000 new HD DVD standalone players? I dunnoi.

My speculation is that they are doing the same thing I am doing for now, watching their initial purchases and older standard def DVD collection while waiting for HD DVD and combo movie prices to drop and be more available at retail locations.

Or that some HD DVD movie sales are not being N/V captured as they are are buying some movies from where they bought their players from ( like small retailers like Value Electronics) who are not being Nielson/Videoscan captured.

Or they bought the players from big box store like Costco or Sam's Club and have not returned yet on their once or twice a month discount warehouse shopping trip.

Or perhaps they bought the HD DVD players are cute $299 shiny black doorstops.

As more and more players get sold and retailers stock more titles at lower prices to serve them, then sales should rise.

Yep, that has not happened so far.

don't forget , that sony lowered the price of ps3 and is selling out in most places. that for sure can take into a account higher BD sales

The last figures we have are for the 8th, I think the numbers from the increased PS3 sales are yet to be a factor.

I can tell the differerence between upconverted and HD, but with my HD XA2, its very close if not better than most of my cable and sat HD, and it nevere macroblocks or is chopped out of its OAR to fit a 16:9 screen, And its on my shelf, ready to watch.I don't know if you've mentioned it, but I think it is only fair that people know you are using a 720p display.

--Darin

I don't know if you've mentioned it, but I think it is only fair that people know you are using a 720p display.

--Darin Not entirely, but I get a great image under 720 as well.

My personal home theater uses a Mitsubishi HC300O a native 720p display but I also watch a lot on some other 1080p displays I have access to including a JVC RS1 , Mits HC5000 and Sony Pearl. I ususally feed it a 720p image straight from the HD XA2 now.

I also have a 57 inch CRT RPTV a Toshiba HD57X82 a 1080i display with the HD XA1 on it.

Same result, although for most purposes except I can see the pixels at a closer range with the Mits HC3000. The upconversion looks the same under both circumstances.

Although, for me I have to admit, the HC3000 and HC31000 and a few other 720p front projectors are clearly superior to some other 720p displays.

I also do watch a calibrated image on a 110 inch screen , so I can see more imperfections than if I was watching on a smaller set.

Bottom line, is that HD DVD is delivering now a great upconverted image for me, and that may explain why myself and other HD DVD owners may be waiting it about a while to buy more HD DVD titles. I'm waiting for prices to drop before I double dip a lot on catalog titles I will eventuallky buy , as I have moer stuff to watch than I have time.

Even at 720p. ;)

Why is it that folks like yourself and Plaz cannot understand there is a sizable percentage of PS3 owners that bought their PS3 solely as a substitute for a standalone set top box??? I don't know what the percentage is, but I know there are many PS3's out there that were purchased without any intention of ever being used for gaming... I know first hand and I'm certainly not alone.
Current thinking around here is about 20% were bought as players

If they are concerned about piracy how come even BD exclusive studios are announcing titles on DVD but not BD?You get on people about not understanding business, yet you seem to hold onto this illogical position that companies like Disney must not be concerned about piracy since they release on DVD. It seems pretty clear to me that they don't have a choice that has better copy protection that is a good alternative to DVD. If there was a format pretty much like DVD except with a little better protection against piracy (like the BD-ROM Mark) as an alternative to DVD that was outselling DVD, it would be more like the situation here. And if studios don't care about region encoding, why do they use it on DVDs? They aren't forced to use it on all those discs where they do.
% means nothing to a studio, $ and profits mean everything.And yet you seem unwilling to admit that your point about absolute dollars instead of percentages means that those who have the movies that will be the most successful also tend to have the most to lose from weaker protection from piracy.
At $299 Tosh seemed to be able to sell approximately 15K players per week, and that was a sales spike, so that won't cut it.The last figure I saw was 70k in 7 weeks, so where did this 15k/week number come from?

--Darin

06/10 66/34 67/33 59/41
06/17 64/36 67/33 59/41
06/24 70/30 67/33 59/41
07/01 65/35 67/33 60/40
07/08 66/34 67/33 60/40

66/35 seems to be the new set point in the sales ratio, with 4/5 of the last few weeks within 1% of that mark.

That seems to be the trend for this quarter.

Comments?

It could be a first (me agreeing with Kosty) but I entirely agree with this assessment (though 65:35) :)

So, people should instead buy BD, which can only view 50% of the available movies?
Yea, that makes alot of sense.
J
No, that would be 'people should instead buy BD, which can view 90% of the available movies.'

Current thinking around here is about 20% were bought as players

That is the figure that seems to work best with the figures we have (at least back in march).

At the time it lined up pretty well for a 1.7-1 hardware advantage.

No, that would be 'people should instead buy BD, which can view 90% of the available movies.'

The 90% v. 50% figures are related to recent blockbusters, not available movies.

Available movies were slightly in BDs favor before and HD DVD has been catching up via Universal's heavy releases in Q2 and Q3.

Hasn't made a difference in the sales ratios, but the number of titles is close.

No, that would be 'people should instead buy BD, which can view 90% of the available movies.'
Care to explain that since there are roughly 100 or so HD DVD exclusives so far, out of less than 700 total movies available on HD optical media?
J

I think he is using numbers based on studio lines where Universal, the only exclusive HD DVD studio, generally garners around 10% of the movie business.

The question I ask you is... how is 100/700 equal to 50%, which was effectively your original statement?

The problem with that is in the past some bought ps3 as it was the cheapest way to watch BD...but now with the $488 player (if it has been less forgive me..this is the last price i saw a posting for on a deal site) the ps3 is no longer the cheapest bd player on market...and i bet BD has a $399 player before we see a $399 PS3...so as PS3 looses the spot of cheapest player..then the BD attach rate will prob get worse on the PS3

Which is exactly why attach rate is a worthless gauge of how well a format is doing. That person who buys a BDP-S300 instead of the PS3 because it is the same price will buy the same number of movies, but now the PS3 attach rate will drop. All that matters is movies sold.

And somehow, I imagine that disc sales will STILL stay at 60:40-70:30 in favor of Blu-ray.
probably not.


I'd LOVE to see your prediction for when HDDVD will reach parity in disc sales, much less pass Blu-ray for even a single week. Anytime in 2007? 2008?


Granted, that hasn't happened yet for a number of reasons, but why the emotion if you are certain that HD DVD will die a natural death?

The only advantage HDDVD has is price and in real dollars, that advantage is half what it was a year ago when Blu-ray took the lead. That advantage will be even less as we go into the holidays for 2007 and they've been getting put in a deeper and deeper disc sales hole.

Then there's the exclusive studio blockbusters that Universal just can't deliver. If Knocked Up is the best they can do, they are just not going to move units. Yes, they will sell some discs for hits on the neutral studios, but the Blu-ray versions will sell more and they'll sell many more of their own exclusives.

I owned HDDVD first and can't complain about the experience I received. If it survives, I won't be disapointed. It just has a dubious to non-existent advantage over the experience I've recieved from Blu-ray and can't claim to have the survival that Blu-ray is guaranted. I think my end user experience would be better receiving Universal titles on Blu-ray, however. YMMV

One of the most sane comments I have read in awhile.

Right now the HD-DVD and Blu-Ray sales for the studios are like finding a nickle and a penny on the ground. Sure the nickle is more but, neither are significant.

The sales ratios are good entertainment and fun to debate about but right now they do not mean anything to the studios. As plazman said "$ and profits mean everything".

Honestly can we stop with the talk about how DVD outsells HD so it doesn't matter how the war is going?

Do you run out of the stands when your kid loses a track and field event and shout "THIS DOESN'T MATTER BECAUSE IT ISN'T THE OLYMPICS?"

The first step towards replacing DVD is eliminating your competitor, and week after week Blu-ray wins the sales data. It isn't a decisive victory yet, but it is an undisputed victory. Trying to belittle it by saying it pales in comparison to DVD sales just makes you seem petty.

I think he is using numbers based on studio lines where Universal, the only exclusive HD DVD studio, generally garners around 10% of the movie business.

The question I ask you is... how is 100/700 equal to 50%, which was effectively your original statement?

The number of titles sitting in a vault somewhere is irrelevant if they never see the light of day. What's important is what you can buy now.
There are roughly the same number of titles available to both formats now.
J

The number of titles sitting in a vault somewhere is irrelevant if they never see the light of day. What's important is what you can buy now.
There are roughly the same number of titles available to both formats now.
J

And as Universal is now proving the # of catalog titles released has almost no bearing on sales.

The number of titles sitting in a vault somewhere is irrelevant if they never see the light of day. What's important is what you can buy now.
There are roughly the same number of titles available to both formats now.
J

So in your estimation, why are sales still in Blu-ray's favor? Are you saying that the release drought wasn't what caused high favorable ratios to Blu-ray in Q1? You really can't have it both ways.

06/10 66/34 67/33 59/41
06/17 64/36 67/33 59/41
06/24 70/30 67/33 59/41
07/01 65/35 67/33 60/40
07/08 66/34 67/33 60/40

66/35 seems to be the new set point in the sales ratio, with 4/5 of the last few weeks within 1% of that mark.

That seems to be the trend for this quarter.

Comments?It does seem to be the trend, but I really want to see the next 2 sets of numbers. HD DVD had one week where the releases were slanted heavily in their favor (although mostly catalogs), then another week where I thought they were in HD DVD's favor (although The Patriot on Blu-ray ended up outselling Blood Diamond on HD DVD) and we got close to 65/35 for both weeks. Now HD DVD had a week with 4 releases against 0 and then Blu-ray gets a week (this one) with 4 releases against 0. We had the PS3 sale effect last week and there is the Blockbuster effect (I think a positive in the long run as more people buy players, but could reduce sales in the very short run as some rent instead of buy). If the data on July 20th is 60/40 or better for Blu-ray and the data on July 27th is at 69/31 or better for HD DVD with Blu-ray having their own 4 to 0 week, then I will probably agree that around 65/35 is the new trend. Should be interesting to see given the events recently and then Blu-ray having a slanted week for releases.

--Darin

So in your estimation, why are sales still in Blu-ray's favor? Are you saying that the release drought wasn't what caused high favorable ratios to Blu-ray in Q1? You really can't have it both ways.

And as Universal is now proving the # of catalog titles released has almost no bearing on sales.

Huh?
I was answering Phloid's question about 50% titles. We were discussing availability. My comment stands. There are roughly the same number of titles available to both formats.
J

Huh?
I was answering Phloid's question about 50% titles. We were discussing availability. My comment stands. There are roughly the same number of titles available to both formats.
J

The number of titles is now about even, but even though Universal has released a ton of titles in the last quarter the sales ratios (see thread title) have not changed in their favor.

So my point is that the actual number of titles aren't being reflected in the sales data we are getting.

Thanks for the information free post. Who is to say what region any given person is in?

Thanks for more dizzying logic. You still after several posts did not address the issue. I'll try to make it simple for you.

The advantage of HD-DVD is that you can buy movies like Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire now from over seas, and not have to worry about region coding. You can try that with BD, but there is a good chance you will be stuck with a coaster for a while.

Your past response to this that 3/4ths of the discs sold in the US do not have region coding made no sense.

The number of titles is now about even, but even though Universal has released a ton of titles in the last quarter the sales ratios (see thread title) have not changed in their favor.

So my point is that the actual number of titles aren't being reflected in the sales data we are getting.
It's not the quantity, but the quality (with quality=Function(age, boxoffice)).

With the possible exception of Planet Earth, the only disks selling well are the ones made in the last few years and only the ones grossing well above 100M is selling at a healthy clip. The best selling ones are the day and date new releases as most people don't have the DVD.

If it's been released previously on DVD, the number of people willing to double dip drops off precipitously.

It's not just a simple boxoffice number as well, as the older the movie, even with comparable box office, the lower the sales appear to be, and the fall is quite steep.

It's not the quantity, but the quality (with quality=Function(age, boxoffice)).

With the possible exception of Planet Earth, the only disks selling well are the ones made in the last few years and only the ones grossing well above 100M is selling at a healthy clip. The best selling ones are the day and date new releases as most people don't have the DVD.

If it's been released previously on DVD, the number of people willing to double dip drops off precipitously.

It's not just a simple boxoffice number as well, as the older the movie, even with comparable box office, the lower the sales appear to be, and the fall is quite steep.

I already know this, but it looks like Universal is only now figuring this out.

Thanks for more dizzying logic. You still after several posts did not address the issue. I'll try to make it simple for you.Stop the bickering NOW, please.

Doc

I already know this, but it looks like Universal is only now figuring this out.
In terms of sales units, the most valuable movies at this point are the 2006 and 2007 top box office grossers, as well as the Oscar winners for the serious collectors.

There's exceptions to these rules there, Disney for example, should sell better than their box office showings, as their movies tend to sell better than they rent (ie: they should be consistently ranked higher on retail vs rental list).

The number of titles is now about even, but even though Universal has released a ton of titles in the last quarter the sales ratios (see thread title) have not changed in their favor.

So my point is that the actual number of titles aren't being reflected in the sales data we are getting.
So what? As I stated, it reflects the number of choices. Right now, and in the near future at least, shoppers will see roughly the same amount of titles for both formats. Hence my 50% comment. I'm sure if someone goes up to a BB sales cluck, they can ask them for the weekly sales ratios as well as pie charts of YTD and SI figures, but that's not what they'll see on the shelves.
J

The advantage of HD-DVD is that you can buy movies like Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire now from over seas, and not have to worry about region coding. You can try that with BD, but there is a good chance you will be stuck with a coaster for a while.


J6P will not import a movie. Ever. Region coding matters to studios and maybe videophiles, but for the average consumer they don't even know it exists.

You do realize that they do complete directly don't you? J6P with the PS3 is going to ask himself if he is going to buy the new Blu-Ray movie for $25 or the SD version for $14.99. Right now, 99% are going with the SD version.


And when they eventually decide they want to check out an HD format what do you think they will do?
A) Use their PS3 for Blu-ray
B) Buy a dedicated player for Blu-ray or HD DVD.

They already paid for Blu-ray functionality, and if they are ever going to look into HD formats, I guarantee they will try Blu-ray first. It just doesn't make any sense to assume differently. This is the whole idea behind the Trojan Horse PS3 strategy, and it seems to be working according to the Nielsen data.


Now what are you talking about when you say 'undisputed victory'? That is the dumbest comment I have read in a while. If the HD-DVD camp said that last September they were wrong too. Both formats right now are struggling not to be the SACD/DVD-Audio of the video world.

You are disputing that 67:33 YTD, 60:40 SI, and 6x:3x weekly is a victory? I said it wasn't a decisive victory, but to pretend that one format is not winning when comparing Nielsen sales data seems strange to me. If outselling your competition isn't a victory, what is?

So what? As I stated, it reflects the number of choices. Right now, and in the near future at least, shoppers will see roughly the same amount of titles for both formats. Hence my 50% comment. I'm sure if someone goes up to a BB sales cluck, they can ask them for the weekly sales ratios as well as pie charts of YTD and SI figures, but that's not what they'll see on the shelves.
J

What HD DVD owners have been saying up until recently and what we see in the Nielsen data is that the number of titles available don't matter.

If you look at the sales data you will see no HD DVD advantage in sales even with ridiculous advantages in the # of releases.

The number of titles is a false metric, only a bullet point if you will.

I also am guessing you have not heard people complaining about the fact that they can't find the new HD DVD catalog titles locally, because the B&Ms aren't ordering them, because the demand for them is so low.

Thanks for more dizzying logic. You still after several posts did not address the issue. I'll try to make it simple for you.

Sorry that you find rational statements dizzying.

The advantage of HD-DVD is that you can buy movies like Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire now from over seas, and not have to worry about region coding. You can try that with BD, but there is a good chance you will be stuck with a coaster for a while.

Your past response to this that 3/4ths of the discs sold in the US do not have region coding made no sense.

But over 60% of UK/Euro titles has relevance to your argument - did you fail to read that part? You failed to quote it so I am not sure if you are even reading the responses.

The title that you named is a Warner release.

Can you please show me a single Warner release in any country in the world that is region coded?

Can you please now tell me again how lack of region coding is key?

Do you think that the ability to import a few titles is worth not getting any Fox or Disney titles?

Care to explain that since there are roughly 100 or so HD DVD exclusives so far, out of less than 700 total movies available on HD optical media?
J
Sorry, thought we were talking about total movie studio catalogues, not what is actually released.

It does seem to be the trend, but I really want to see the next 2 sets of numbers. HD DVD had one week where the releases were slanted heavily in their favor (although mostly catalogs), then another week where I thought they were in HD DVD's favor (although The Patriot on Blu-ray ended up outselling Blood Diamond on HD DVD) and we got close to 65/35 for both weeks. Now HD DVD had a week with 4 releases against 0 and then Blu-ray gets a week (this one) with 4 releases against 0. We had the PS3 sale effect last week and there is the Blockbuster effect (I think a positive in the long run as more people buy players, but could reduce sales in the very short run as some rent instead of buy). If the data on July 20th is 60/40 or better for Blu-ray and the data on July 27th is at 69/31 or better for HD DVD with Blu-ray having their own 4 to 0 week, then I will probably agree that around 65/35 is the new trend. Should be interesting to see given the events recently and then Blu-ray having a slanted week for releases.

--Darin

I agree with Kosty and darin.

Last week (ie the one we'll get figures for hopefully next Friday) should have been good for HD DVD: absolutely no releases for BD and four titles for HD DVD (yeah, catalogs but anyway...). In the absence of other circumstances, I'd have predicted 45% for HD DVD or better.

However, the announcement of the PS3 price cut has helped BD in several ways:

- New PS3 owners may have bought a title or two;

- Bundles such as the amazon PS3 + remote + Memento/RE had an effect;

- Existing BD owners may have had their confidence boosted and bought titles.

Therefore, I expect weekly share to be again around 65/35.

However, the actual volumes will be low for both formats.

Repost of my predictions for this week's numbers


Ok well, we have the figures for this week so, onto next week!

HD DVD

Billy Madison (Universal)
Dante's Peak (Universal)
The War (Universal)
The Wedding Date (Universal)

BD

Zip
Zero
Nada

My prediction...

64/36

The week after next

74/26

BTW, releases for the week with my 74/26 prediction are as follows

Blu-ray

The Fifth Element (Remastered) (Sony)
Premonition (Sony)
Waiting... (Lionsgate)
Wild Things (Sony)

HD DVD

Nada

I'd LOVE to see your prediction for when HDDVD will reach parity in disc sales, much less pass Blu-ray for even a single week. Anytime in 2007? 2008?



The only advantage HDDVD has is price and in real dollars, that advantage is half what it was a year ago when Blu-ray took the lead. That advantage will be even less as we go into the holidays for 2007 and they've been getting put in a deeper and deeper disc sales hole.

Then there's the exclusive studio blockbusters that Universal just can't deliver. If Knocked Up is the best they can do, they are just not going to move units. Yes, they will sell some discs for hits on the neutral studios, but the Blu-ray versions will sell more and they'll sell many more of their own exclusives.

I owned HDDVD first and can't complain about the experience I received. If it survives, I won't be disapointed. It just has a dubious to non-existent advantage over the experience I've recieved from Blu-ray and can't claim to have the survival that Blu-ray is guaranted. I think my end user experience would be better receiving Universal titles on Blu-ray, however. YMMV Price.

Lower hardware price means more penetration and a larger installed base.

Lower prices are even more of an advantage as they reach lower and lower levels until you get to $49.99 or less. A $100 or $50 difference means a lot more as prices drop.

HD DVD will continue to have this lead into the forseable future, at least until next year. That means HD DVD hardware will continue ot sell more throughout the year and much more during the high volume 4th quarter and end of year holiday season.

More standalone hardware sales means the studios and retailers will have an incentive to drop disc prices and display and stock more titles at retail locations so consumers can have easier access to them and will have less risk for purchase because they will cost less.

This will happen for both HD DVD and Blu-ray but if HD DVD prices are lower there will be more acceleration in sales for HD DVD as it will probably be at a lower price point than Blu-ray.

To answer you question, I think HD DVD will surpass Blu-ray in disc sales sometime after Black Friday, the day after the USA Thanksgiving holiday. It may even surpass that on some odd weeks before that.

YTD and SI ratios are basically history stats. With the volumes so low they don't mean much to the decision makers. Its the trending of the market share that is more important and although Blu-ray is constantly leading in the weekly sales ratios it is not consistenlt pulling away.

As long as HD DVD stays consistent or even closes a bit, it will be competitive up until the holiday sales season, where the real fun and games begin.

Last year, the PS3 dominated and the second generation HD DVD players didn't roll out until the last week or so of the holiday season, so the 4th quarter ( and 1st quarter mostly) were conceeded to the PS3 and Blu-ray.

This fourth quarter will be a serious fight where some substantial POS marketing and advertising pushes will be made and much more retail space will be allocated toward these HD formats.

Sales volumes for both formats will probably rise dramatically in October through December.

Every thing else until then is just preparing the battlefield.

And as Universal is now proving the # of catalog titles released has almost no bearing on sales. Again this is an artifact of your short term outlook. (Understandable for your format choice. :rolleyes: )

Those catalog titles will still be out there as the number of new owners accumulate. Theyu have not amounted to much now, but again catalog sales are found money for the studios and the sheer amount of them available can accumulate into some real money over time.

Again this is an artifact of your short term outlook. (Understandable for your format choice. :rolleyes: )

Those catalog titles will still be out there as the number of new owners accumulate. Theyu have not amounted to much now, but again catalog sales are found money for the studios and the sheer amount of them available can accumulate into some real money over time.

And will the PQ of those recently released Universal catalog titles somehow get better?

Again this is an artifact of your short term outlook. (Understandable for your format choice. :rolleyes: )

Those catalog titles will still be out there as the number of new owners accumulate. Theyu have not amounted to much now, but again catalog sales are found money for the studios and the sheer amount of them available can accumulate into some real money over time.

Your theory applies to all releases, but with big releases you get a lot of sales up front that then trickle down eventually to your 'found money' scenario.

So, lots of money up front and slow long term sales, or just slow long term sales?

Which is going to make a difference here?

edit: Any one else notice HD DVD supporters in here with a new theory about how disc sales actually work that is actually a contradiction to the data we are supposed to be discussing?

And will the PQ of those recently released Universal catalog titles somehow get better? Still better than DVD.

I think most of the quality discussions are somewhat over blown for a number of reasons as they are probably better than those releases have ever been. Not all HD will be perfect for a number of reasons, including source material availability.

Don't know about them personally as I have not seen most of them , but the reviews seem more about other factors than the pure PQ.

Have you seen any of them?

Last year, the PS3 dominated and the second generation HD DVD players didn't roll out until the last week or so of the holiday season, so the 4th quarter ( and 1st quarter mostly) were conceeded to the PS3 and Blu-ray.


Not so. The 92,000 Xbox HD DVD add-ons held the fort nicely. Actually the vast majority of HD DVD playback devices sold in 2006 were add-ons. And, contrary to PS3, every add-on buyer was somebody specifically determined to use HD DVD movies.

Don't know about them personnaly as I have not seen most of them

That is a good sign about the problem with these releases, even HD DVD supporters who argue for HD DVD in a forum all day aren't bothering to pick up these titles.

I also am guessing you have not heard people complaining about the fact that they can't find the new HD DVD catalog titles locally, because the B&Ms aren't ordering them, because the demand for them is so low.

Actually, I haven't. The BB by me has an equal amount of HD and BD titles. The even have a banner over both saying "The next generation DVD", which I beleive BD isn't allowed to state.
The demand is there in my area.
J

Not so. The 92,000 Xbox HD DVD add-ons held the fort nicely. Actually the vast majority of HD DVD playback devices sold in 2006 were add-ons. And, contrary to PS3, every add-on buyer was somebody specifically determined to use HD DVD movies. Good point. Well taken.

But still there was a big space between the availablity of the HD A1 (Aug -Sep 2006 ish) and the HD A2 (Dec 20 2007 ish) and the HD XA2 (Jan 20 2007 ish).

The second generation Toshiba's pretty much missed the 4th quarter, traditionaly the highest CE sales period, and there were enough Xbox 360 HD DVD add ons available in distribution.

Both situations will change during the end of the year in 2007.

the Nieslen numbers will be skewed alot more than usual this week because of the PS3 drop and the sellout of both Memento and Resident Evil...

my guess will be BR by 83:17...

I can be optomistic, can't I??? :D

Still better than DVD.

I think most of the quality discussions are somewhat over blown for a number of reasons as they are probably better than those releases have ever been. Not all HD will be perfect for a number of reasons, including source material availability.

Don't know about them personally as I have not seen most of them , but the reviews seem more about other factors than the pure PQ.

Have you seen any of them?

I've stopped buying HD DVDs. I bought the Matrix set and decided to call it quits with that.

That is a good sign about the problem with these releases, even HD DVD supporters who argue for HD DVD in a forum all day aren't bothering to pick up these titles.


well I for one will pick up a bunch soon. but I'm in no hurry as I have quite a few titles backed up for me to watch.

I'll grab a bunch as prices drop at Amazon, or I'll buy them as I walk buy them when they get stocked at my local retailers, as I sure alot of my fellow HD DVD owners will. ;)

well I for one will pick up a bunch soon. but I'm in no hurry as I have quite a few titles backed up for me to watch.

I'll grab a bunch as prices drop at Amazon, or I'll buy them as I walk buy them when they get stocked at my local retailers, as I sure alot of my fellow HD DVD owners will. ;)

Yup...I would wait for the fire/clearance sale on HD DVD's (if I had an HD DVD player) also....shouldn't be too much longer... :)

Honestly can we stop with the talk about how DVD outsells HD so it doesn't matter how the war is going?
..
The first step towards replacing DVD is eliminating your competitor, and week after week Blu-ray wins the sales data. It isn't a decisive victory yet, but it is an undisputed victory. Trying to belittle it by saying it pales in comparison to DVD sales just makes you seem petty.

Yeah, I agree. Sure, the numbers are infinitesimal right now. Thing is, this war will be decided when the numbers are infinitesimal. At least, decided in reality. Sony didn't "officially" throw in the Beta towel until, depending on how you look at it, '94 (they started making VHS) or '02 (stopped all Beta manufacturing/support). But that war was really over in '83, maybe '84 at the latest. This one will be decided even quicker. Either:
1) Blu-ray maintains lead and/or increases lead this holiday season, and the war's essentially over by the time '08 rolls around. Or
2) HD-DVD somehow makes a strong comeback this holiday season, and the war is decided sometime in 08.

Either way, the numbers will still be totally miniscule vis-a-vis DVD when a winner is determined.

Again this is an artifact of your short term outlook. (Understandable for your format choice. :rolleyes: )

Is the added insult and :rolleyes: really useful an any way? It does nothing to strengthen your argument.


Those catalog titles will still be out there as the number of new owners accumulate. Theyu have not amounted to much now, but again catalog sales are found money for the studios and the sheer amount of them available can accumulate into some real money over time.

What is your take on The Patriot being the number 4 BD (actually the #4 HD optical disc, it outsold all HD DVDs) where none of the masses of Universal catalog titles make an appearance in even the top 5 HD DVD chart?

Is that indicative of anything?

It would seem that catalog titles can sell... so why the difference?

Price.

Lower hardware price means more penetration and a larger installed base.


So far this theory has not proven to be correct.

We see no sign of improved market share for HD DVD even with the hardware sales promotion.

I think we have reached the point where this theory needs to be supported with sales data or in the very least no longer stated as an 'obvious fact'.

Show us the software sales that cut price hardware has led to - otherwise this is nothing more than a theory that apparently hasn't panned out (yet, I know, wait a month... or two...).

So far this theory has not proven to be correct.

We see no sign of improved market share for HD DVD even with the hardware sales promotion.

I think we have reached the point where this theory needs to be supported with sales data or in the very least no longer stated as an 'obvious fact'.

Show us the software sales that cut price hardware has led to - otherwise this is nothing more than a theory that apparently hasn't panned out (yet, I know, wait a month... or two...).

You are right.

My theory is this: once we get to the middle adopters, price will matter a lot. But we're not there yet.

We are currently just after the early adopters, with about 2% penetration for both formats combined. The next batch of folks are not that price sensitive, but want to select the format that lasts.

Look at current pricing: at Costco yesterday, the Toshiba was $279 and the Sony $449. Decent prices. That is a difference of $170.

If these were comparable units, I would prefer the Toshiba. But you have to buy into the HD DVD format to select the Toshiba. If it happens to be the wrong format, the $170 doesn't mean much. Only about 7 disks.

As many folks have discovered, it is easy to end up buying $5K or $10K of disks for some format. If the format dies, you have a difficult situation.

So, at this stage, consumers are waiting for the format war to end. Whichever ends, the next bunch of adopters will buy, whether the price is $279 or $449.

So far this theory has not proven to be correct.

We see no sign of improved market share for HD DVD even with the hardware sales promotion.

I think we have reached the point where this theory needs to be supported with sales data or in the very least no longer stated as an 'obvious fact'.

Show us the software sales that cut price hardware has led to - otherwise this is nothing more than a theory that apparently hasn't panned out (yet, I know, wait a month... or two...).

Could it be that those who will only buy a $199 player will not pay $25 for a disk?

I personally believe that the true prices we need to watch are software prices.

Could it be that those who will only buy a $199 player will not pay $25 for a disk?

I personally believe that the true prices we need to watch are software prices.

I agree with your personal belief, and add that with price parity for most titles and higher pricing for combos, the HD DVD format does not have the cheaper discs to go along with the cheaper hardware, so the cost saving is a one time deal - as someone else noted worth roughly 7 discs (or is canceled out with the purchase of 34 combo discs :) ).

That is a good sign about the problem with these releases, even HD DVD supporters who argue for HD DVD in a forum all day aren't bothering to pick up these titles.
Of course the flip side of this, is that once TFE (remastered) arrives, I'll have 7 BR discs, and I'll be done buying them too for quite a while.
I still buy lots of DVDs, that's where most of the selection is.
CONTENT IS KING! oops, only blu-boys can say that. :D
J

Could it be that those who will only buy a $199 player will not pay $25 for a disk?

I personally believe that the true prices we need to watch are software prices.

I agree. In fact I predict that the attach rate of catalog titles is going to decrease as cheaper hardware becomes more available. Early adopters are far more likely to re-buy their collection than is the average public. This may change if disk prices fall, but there would have to be at least a $10 price drop in MSRP per disk for any significant change to be seen.

Of course the flip side of this, is that once TFE (remastered) arrives, I'll have 7 BR discs, and I'll be done buying them too for quite a while.
I still buy lots of DVDs, that's where most of the selection is.
CONTENT IS KING! oops, only blu-boys can say that. :D
J

Actually, I think it was Fox that made that point at CES 2007.

Could it be that those who will only buy a $199 player will not pay $25 for a disk?

I personally believe that the true prices we need to watch are software prices.

Very critical.

You can buy Meet Joe Black for $9.99 from Amazon on DVD but the HD DVD will cost you $19.99 (these are their street prices). [This is true of both formats and all studios BTW, I am just using MJB as an example.] You can also watch it on HDNet Movies.

These catalog titles that have been around for a while are not going to sell well for such premium prices. Then we have the hated HD DVD combos that add another $5 to the MSRP.

Even new titles are probably suffering from the same thing. I am guessing that many people who actually own HD gear are buying the SD DVD's because they are cheaper/more accessible/more special features/better packaging.

Moreover, the much-discussed player prices are really pretty marginal when you calculate the true "cost of ownership" based on the disks. Blu-ray is $499, HD DVD is $299. The difference buys you perhaps 9 disks.

The studios can resell their catalogs but let's see them for $9.99, which is a pretty fair price for something that has made the rounds of every other format and distribution channel ever invented by a studio exec.

HD sales (regardless of the format) has nothing to do with DVD prices, its medium, or anything else. Why HD sales to slow is that QUALITY of content. Look at the movies that sell well on HD - All great movies. They are however a small portion of the movie library. Just because it is HD does not mean that people want to see the movie. Maybe if these studios want to sell more copies in HD they should release/make better movies.

I am 100% certain that if they were to release Lord of the Ring, Star Wars, or even Die Hard in HD they would sell like hot cakes because they are good movies. How many people want to watch Employ of the Month? I know I don't.

And for this argument of "bonus features" I would say that 90% of the population does not use them. Do not use that as an argument. I love Superbit DVDs for a few reasons good PQ, good SQ and I do not have to put up with all of the extra **** to get the my movie.

And for this argument of "bonus features" I would say that 90% of the population does not use them. Do not use that as an argument. I love Superbit DVDs for a few reasons good PQ, good SQ and I do not have to put up with all of the extra **** to get the my movie.

If 90% of the population doesn't use them they why didn't superbit take off? No special features and better PQ/AQ

Look at current pricing: at Costco yesterday, the Toshiba was $279 and the Sony $449. Decent prices. That is a difference of $170.

If these were comparable units, I would prefer the Toshiba. But you have to buy into the HD DVD format to select the Toshiba. If it happens to be the wrong format, the $170 doesn't mean much. Only about 7 disks.

As many folks have discovered, it is easy to end up buying $5K or $10K of disks for some format. If the format dies, you have a difficult situation.


That's why the rental market may become (for now) a more important indicator for where the market is going than software sales.

People who are stepping in now (on both sides) are not any more the hardcore fans. They may buy a few discs: one for showing off the HD (PE for example) and a few of their most preferred movies. Beyond that, they'll rent until it becomes clear whether their format will be the format.

So I'm not surprised to see very low attach rates for either the PS3's or the cheaply sold A2 players.

Speaking of rentals, I haven't seen much talk about this:

Rentrak Adds Blu-ray to Sony Revenue-sharing Deal

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?sec_id=2&&article_ID=10899

You can buy Meet Joe Black for $9.99 from Amazon on DVD but the HD DVD will cost you $19.99 (these are their street prices).
You are right. I have the DVD, and because of that only rented the HD version. But the difference is, as they say, "palpable" - you get a real sense of the texture of how the really wealthy live. Am I going to buy it - probably not, but if JQP doesn't already own it in DVD, they should buy it in HDM.

Speaking of rentals, I haven't seen much talk about this:

Rentrak Adds Blu-ray to Sony Revenue-sharing Deal

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?sec_id=2&&article_ID=10899

Wow, why don't you post that in the news thread?

With all the PS3's out there, it makes a lot of sense for BD to go aggressively after the rental market. Rental availability will feed back into player sales and eventually into software sales.

With respect to the "the extra A2s sold don't show up in the software sales" observation, it is interesting to take a look at the UK top-10 data ('show all') at eproductwars.

Looking over time since the PS3 launch, the main effect is that HD DVD software sales declines over time. Clearly, the number of players did not decline. But it seems that HD DVD owners are getting more reluctant to invest in a big library.
(The alternative explanation, that all these earlier sales were from people who just bought their HD DVD player, is even worse since it would mean that player sales has dried up too.)

I guess we see the same phenomenon in the Nielsen data: while the number of players increased substantially, HD DVD owners are getting more reluctant to build a big library (especially for catalogue titles).

With respect to the "the extra A2s sold don't show up in the software sales" observation, it is interesting to take a look at the UK top-10 data ('show all') at eproductwars.

Looking over time since the PS3 launch, the main effect is that HD DVD software sales declines over time. Clearly, the number of players did not decline. But it seems that HD DVD owners are getting more reluctant to invest in a big library.
(The alternative explanation, that all these earlier sales were from people who just bought their HD DVD player, is even worse since it would mean that player sales has dried up too.)

I guess we see the same phenomenon in the Nielsen data: while the number of players increased substantially, HD DVD owners are getting more reluctant to build a big library (especially for catalogue titles).

I think the recent Toshiba price drop and future price drops are going to attract the worst kind of customer for Toshiba to HD DVD. The Renter. I think a lot of people picked the player up with no intention of owning more than the 5 movies the player comes with. Heck I see a lot of 360 owners out there who own King Kong and maybe 1 other title. The info is right there in their sig. Similarly Sony has a lot of these same customers with the PS3, which is why it has such a low attach rate.

I would have expected to see their increased player base generate proportionally increased sales, and we have not seen that in any way shape or form, unless by chance Blu-ray coincidently increased by near double that same proportion. What are all these new player owners waiting for?

Over the last few days I've been intermittently pondering the PS3 and estimates of the low attach rates. Questions of who actually owns them, their motivations and the like. Yes, I need to get a life, but then most of us who post here regularly can say the same :D

So much of what we have seen written by the early adopters on this forum has focused on the thought process of the enthusiast. Obviously quite a few enthusiasts embraced the PS3 for its perceived value, and firmware updatability. But what about those people who bought a PS3 and a disk or two to see the technology in their home, but are still reluctant to commit to buying disks as long as there is a lingering cloud overhead in the form of the format war. Until the last month, I belonged to that camp. I owned an HD-A1 and a PS3, but never purchased more than a couple disks from either format. The question I have been pondering is: Am I alone in my thought process, or are there a sizable number of PS3 owners out there who are very actively interested in buying BD media, but have been reluctant to do so until the format war approaches resolution? In a sense, the silent majority of HD media player owners who have not yet voted with their software dollars.

So what does this have to do with sales ratings?

I have a pet theory formulating. Feel free to critique and throw darts as you see fit. My theory is that the movie 'Transformers' is uniquely targeted towards the PS3 demographic, has instant name recognition, and is basically the eye candy movie of the year - well suited to HD. It is also widely expected to be a neutral release. If any movie will show us how many PS3 owners are interested in buying HD optical media, it is this one. Per a thread over in the BD software forum, it is expected to be released in on or around December 4th.

Anyone care to put in early predictions as to the sales ratio on this title on week one? I'm thinking it will blow away everything we have seen so far. . . If Norbit can do 2.04:1, this could do 4:1 or more with the PS3 vote.

I think the recent Toshiba price drop and future price drops are going to attract the worst kind of customer for Toshiba to HD DVD. The Renter. I think a lot of people picked the player up with no intention of owning more than the 5 movies the player comes with. Heck I see a lot of 360 owners out there who own King Kong and maybe 1 other title. The info is right there in their sig. Similarly Sony has a lot of these same customers with the PS3, which is why it has such a low attach rate.

I would have expected to see their increased player base generate proportionally increased sales, and we have not seen that in any way shape or form, unless by chance Blu-ray coincidently increased by near double that same proportion. What are all these new player owners waiting for?

It looks like we were pondering this at the same time. My take is that they are fence-sitting while they wait for resolution of the war. They were willing to commit to hardware because they wanted to own the next great thing, but when it comes down to spending $20+ for a catalog release, or $25+ for a new release with the cloud still hanging overhead, they turn into spend-thrifts. We see some impulse buying from them when Fry's runs a deep sale, but most of the time they are still waiting in a holding pattern. In part for this reason, I anticipate media sales will grow faster than player sales when the cloud lifts.

I have a pet theory formulating. Feel free to critique and throw darts as you see fit. My theory is that the movie 'Transformers' is uniquely targeted towards the PS3 demographic, has instant name recognition, and is basically the eye candy movie of the year - well suited to HD. It is also widely expected to be a neutral release. If any movie will show us how many PS3 owners are interested in buying HD optical media, it is this one. Per a thread over in the BD software forum, it is expected to be released in on or around December 4th.


I think you're right, and I think 300 is going to also appeal to a lot of PS3 owners. I am hesitant to make predictions, but I think 2:1 Blu-ray is a pretty safe bet for sales. The waters are muddied a bit because HD DVD supporters will have to pay the combo tax, but in this case they may want to because of the IME. Only a few weeks until we know for sure ;)

It looks like we were pondering this at the same time. My take is that they are fence-sitting while they wait for resolution of the war. They were willing to commit to hardware because they wanted to own the next great thing, but when it comes down to spending $20+ for a catalog release, or $25+ for a new release with the cloud still hanging overhead, they turn into spend-thrifts. We see some impulse buying from them when Fry's runs a deep sale, but most of the time they are still waiting in a holding pattern. In part for this reason, I anticipate media sales will grow faster than player sales when the cloud lifts.

We can also see from the Amazon sales that a lot of PS3 buyers are willing to jump off the fence when the price is right.

If you look at long term sales ranking, BD is much more stable & consistent regarding buying of movies. To me, this kinda indicates that a lot of BD supporters are more casual buyers. On the hd dvd side, you have huge peaks & dropoffs. When HD gets new releases or buy days, everyone piles in, and can momentarily overtake BD's rankings, but then the #s quickly drops off. IMO Transformers should follow this pattern.

I think hd can pull ahead with the pre-orders, but BD eventually catches up & overtakes as more of the "casual enthusist" that represents ps3 owners jump in. Bd has a lower overall attach rate, but the upside of that is that they have more "untapped potential". As the poster above me mentioned, once you have a sale or hit movie released, BD comes back swinging.

I think hd can pull ahead with the pre-orders, but BD eventually catches up & overtakes as more of the "casual enthusist" that represents ps3 owners jump in. Bd has a lower overall attach rate, but the upside of that is that they have more "untapped potential".

Exactly. In order for HD DVD to have a title sell 100,000 copies, 33% of all owners (150,000 dedicated, 150,000 add-on as per official Toshiba and Microsoft figures) must be interested in the title and buy it. For Blu-ray to sell 100,000 copies a paltry
~6.5% (1.5 million PS3s and 100,000 dedicated players) must be interested enough to buy.

Is it any surprise Casino Royale will probably be the first title to sell 100,000 on a single HD format? (I realize The Departed is higher when both format's sales are combined.)

Exactly. In order for HD DVD to have a title sell 100,000 copies, 33% of all owners (150,000 dedicated, 150,000 add-on as per official Toshiba and Microsoft figures) must be interested in the title and buy it. For Blu-ray to sell 100,000 copies a paltry
~6.5% (1.5 million PS3s and 100,000 dedicated players) must be interested enough to buy.

Is it any surprise Casino Royale will probably be the first title to sell 100,000 on a single HD format? (I realize The Departed is higher when both format's sales are combined.)
Under even the most conservative estimates, CR must have crossed 100K just by taking the May 29th numbers and considering the placement of CR in the weekly top 10 lists after that.
---
What is the significance of the Rentrak deal?
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?sec_id=2&&article_ID=10899

Do Blockbusters get their disks through Rentrak?

Under even the most conservative estimates, CR must have crossed 100K just by taking the May 29th numbers and considering the placement of CR in the weekly top 10 lists after that.
---
What is the significance of the Rentrak deal?
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?sec_id=2&&article_ID=10899

Do Blockbusters get their disks through Rentrak?


Rentrak Corporation offers home entertainment content products in the United States and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Pay-Per-Transaction (PPT), and Advanced Media and Information (AMI). The PPT segment delivers home entertainment content products, as well as provides related rental and sales information for that content to home video specialty stores and other retailers, including grocery stores and convenience stores. This division also operates a Web site, Formovies.com, to assist consumers in finding a local video store where they can rent and/or purchase video products. The AMI Division offers Essentials Suite of software and services comprising Box Office Essentials for reporting domestic and international gross receipt theatrical ticket sales to motion picture studios and movie theater owners; Home Video Essentials that measures DVD, VHS, and video game rentals from both brick-and-mortar and online channels; Supply Chain Essentials, a supply chain management software, that enables clients to manage the flow of products and funds at various point in the supply chain until the product reaches the consumer; OnDemand Essentials to measure and report anonymous video on demand usage data; and Retail Essentials that primarily reports North American national consumer sales estimations of DVDs, VHS tapes, HD DVDs, Blu-ray Discs and universal media disks to motion picture studios and retailers. This segment's direct revenue sharing services collect, track, audit, and report the results of certain retailers' direct revenue sharing activity to its suppliers consisting of studios and independent program suppliers. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Portland, Oregon.

You can use the store locator on their website to find the type of stores they rent movies in. For the most part, it seems to be smaller local video rental stores & grocery stores.

No, that would be 'people should instead buy BD, which can view 90% of the available movies.'

No...it's people should buy the cheapest player and soon be watching 100% of movies when studios support where they can get the most sales.

No...it's people should buy the cheapest player and soon be watching 100% of movies when studios support where they can get the most sales.

If you don't know which format gets the most sales you can just look at the first post in this thread.

Only one studio seems to be passing up those sales at the moment.

No...it's people should buy the cheapest player and soon be watching 100% of movies when studios support where they can get the most sales.

And who has the most sales? That's right, people should buy BD where studio support will soon be 100%.

I think you're right, and I think 300 is going to also appeal to a lot of PS3 owners. I am hesitant to make predictions, but I think 2:1 Blu-ray is a pretty safe bet for sales. The waters are muddied a bit because HD DVD supporters will have to pay the combo tax, but in this case they may want to because of the IME. Only a few weeks until we know for sure ;)

Whether or not combos are a good idea is disputed. The studios contend they have data that shows that people like them for new releases.

If you don't know which format gets the most sales you can just look at the first post in this thread.

Only one studio seems to be passing up those sales at the moment.

First post doesn't mention SD DVD

First post doesn't mention SD DVD

Is it me or is this a recent trend? Everytime someone mentions how badly HDDVD is getting their teeth kicked in, HDDVD supporters fall back to DVD. It's quite hilarious actually because they can't argue the fact that their format is losing and losing badly. Their new mantra seems to be, "We're not getting our asses kicked that bad". I can't wait for Friday's Nielson numbers to come out, something tells me HDDVD supporters won't be posting on this thread for a few days.

First post doesn't mention SD DVD

Thats because we are in the HD forums. Stay on topic.

Is it me or is this a recent trend? Everytime someone mentions how badly HDDVD is getting their teeth kicked in, HDDVD supporters fall back to DVD. It's quite hilarious actually because they can't argue the fact that their format is losing and losing badly. Their new mantra seems to be, "We're not getting our asses kicked that bad". I can't wait for Friday's Nielson numbers to come out, something tells me HDDVD supporters won't be posting on this thread for a few days.

It's the latest HD DVD talking point. I guess we aren't on their e-mail distribution list.

Nielsen VideoScan sales ratios & top sellers part 2 (www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=876174)