Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 [Text View] - Page 4

SteroMAdMAn

02-02-07, 07:53 PM

Like I have stated before, France (my country of origin) is the biggest market after the USA when it comes to video. They are the fastest adopting country in Europe for new technologies. They also have the biggest video distributors for the continent, such as Pathe and Studio Canal. UK is actually way slower in adoption rate. And one more thing : price matters very much in that country. If they see one format has the same PQ/AQ for a cheaper cost of entry, they will buy the cheaper one, especially when that is the format with no region coding.

PS3 will not sell any faster in europe than it is selling in other countries. If Japan sales are slow, don't hope for a reversal of situation in europe.

Seems to be true on this site. Read the article and then all the comments from the readers below.

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/games/archives/2007/01/24/ps3_worth_the_cash.html

wnorris

02-02-07, 07:54 PM

I agree. Probably mostly in December of 2006 even. That 10% increase Since Inception but only about 12% for the year for HD DVD still doesn't seem right to me. If we even guessed 1.5 million HD DVDs sold in 2005, it seems like this year would have to have more than half of that sold for HD DVD in just 3 weeks. I haven't run the numbers though.

--Darin

I take it you mean 2006?

I don't think it would take half to effect theses numbers, I think 1/5 - 1/4 the 2006 total would do it, but I haven't ran the numbers outside my head.

JBCricket

02-02-07, 07:54 PM

Grubert thanks for the numbers. Excellent thread.

plazman

02-02-07, 07:55 PM

Sketcha

02-02-07, 07:57 PM

I must say that I am very impressed with the tone of the recent discussion on this thread - it gives me hope that even the most aggressive advocates of each format can be civil to each other while still keeping the discussion lively; let's please keep it up!

btw - happy Friday! Weekend means more time for all of us to enjoy our HD movies!!!
Agreed.

Ironically you will find a ways back in this thread (and a few others) that I expressed a belief in the possibility of this, though I was speaking of the final end, if there will be one, to the war. Fortunately, for me, I think I was, pretty much right.

However, the condition I put on it was that the "losing" members accept their status and not continue to fire back. Pretty simple, really.

I think this is a good example of how this can and should work.

Glad you're enjoying the discussion.

Cheers.

P.S. Not for me. Working all day tomorrow. Real Estate.

Enjoy your precious HD movies! :mad:
:D

plazman

02-02-07, 07:57 PM

awmurray

02-02-07, 08:00 PM

Dude, mellow out -

Been waiting all day for it to be updated.

He's posted 15 times today, 6 times in this thread alone, and once after breaking the new numbers.

JBlacklow

02-02-07, 08:01 PM

He could have pulled a Bill Hunt and Digital Bits. But he didn't.As someone who continually questioned the factual basis of these numbers when they show a Blu-ray lead while immedeatly accepting the next week's numbers don't, you aren't in any position to be slagging someone for perceived bias.

Stones and glass houses, old chum.

darinp2

02-02-07, 08:01 PM

I take it you mean 2006?Yep. Thanks. I fixed it in that post.

--Darin

Sketcha

02-02-07, 08:02 PM

Been waiting all day for it to be updated.

He's posted 15 times today, 6 times in this thread alone, and once after breaking the new numbers.

Have you tried a PM?

wnorris

02-02-07, 08:03 PM

Dude, mellow out - Grubert has been good enough to find these numbers for us in the first place, and update us with the newest batch even with it being completely impossible to find otherwise. If he was interested in slanting, he wouldn't have had to do that at all.

Try to show a little appreciation - doesn't matter what side of the fence he's on.

Impossible to find? The new numbers are easy to find.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hmr020407/index.php

Reading the article that accompanies the numbers, I detect a slight BD bias. However, it was interesting that BD released about 2X as many titles (20 vs 11) to take a 67% market share YTD. A HD-DVD rep contributed BD's gain to a lopsided release schedule. It basically indicates that BD released 2X the number of titles and sold 2X as many discs. This would seem to imply that on average, new releases sell equally as well as catalog titles. Doesn't that sort of burst the bubble of the whole "BD new releases up against HD catalog releases" arguement?

It will be interesting to see what happens when the schedule evens out in March (the word I'm hearing is that there are many unannounced releases tenatively slated for March).

awmurray

02-02-07, 08:04 PM

I just don't even understand what you're talking about at all.

What do you mean you were "waiting all day for it to be updated?" Were you expecting an update? And if so, why and from where?

Look at the first post. He always keeps the first post of his threads updated. This one is no exception.

darinp2

02-02-07, 08:11 PM

However, it was interesting that BD released about 2X as many titles (20 vs 11) to take a 67% market share YTD.What timeframe are you using for your 20 to 11 numbers and what list of releases? From using Grubert's list I don't see a time when it was 20 to 11 for a period preceding January 14th (or January 21st). I see 10 for Blu-ray vs 11 for HD DVD include 12/19/06 to 1/14/07, 22 vs 22 for 12/05/07 to 1/14/07, and 47 vs 42 for 11/14/07 to 1/14/07, but not 20 vs 11.

--Darin

xbdestroya

02-02-07, 08:14 PM

Impossible to find? The new numbers are easy to find.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hmr020407/index.php

Ok time to step back for a minute... first of all - yes, you're right. Second of all, do we have a reasonable expectation that these numbers will be included in every edition?

Reading the article that accompanies the numbers, I detect a slight BD bias. However, it was interesting that BD released about 2X as many titles (20 vs 11) to take a 67% market share YTD. A HD-DVD rep contributed BD's gain to a lopsided release schedule. It basically indicates that BD released 2X the number of titles and sold 2X as many discs. This would seem to imply that on average, new releases sell equally as well as catalog titles. Doesn't that sort of burst the bubble of the whole "BD new releases up against HD catalog releases" arguement?

I think it's time just to step back from all of these ratios... now at *this* point more than ever it's just too much of a moving target. BD player base basically is the PS3, and whatever is going on with sales, there are still going to be a lot of units entering US homes relative to the install base at the end of 06. On the HD DVD side, Toshiba has just launched some new standalones, and in greater volumes.

I'll be the first to admit that when I saw a 7% SI jump in a single week, I thought there was something more monumental at play than was the case - an 11% swing in the other direction the very next week and I realize just *how* fragile the entire SI install base, for both formats, actually is at this moment.

We just can't know what's up - it's not possible right now. I say we watch the numbers week-by-week, see what causes spikes, what the general trends are, and how the numbers relate, and slowly we'll be able to develop a more accurate modeling system.

Right now, things are simply too much in a state of flux. Any snapshot ratios like X BD player base equals Y number of HD DVD players..., just don't mean anything solid right now.

Look at the first post. He always keeps the first post of his threads updated. This one is no exception.

Well, wnorris pointed out where the numbers could be found anyway so I retracted my post. I don't know, you might be right. For me though, I still remain grateful to Grubert for lifting the veil off of all of this.

Sketcha

02-02-07, 08:14 PM

I take it you mean 2006?

I don't think it would take half to effect theses numbers, I think 1/5 - 1/4 the 2006 total would do it, but I haven't ran the numbers outside my head.

If you have the ability to run these numbers, I would sure appreciate a report.

Like I've said, the only way I can figure it out is if a MAJOR spike in sales for both formats occured in January

Grubert

02-02-07, 08:17 PM

Why hasn't the first post been updated with the Jan 21st numbers?

Hmmm?????

Too hard to believe? Too painful? Denial?

I have taken the numbers from the new issue which is now up, but for which there is still no link on the main page. I think it would be inappropriate to put it up on the initial post before it gets official.

Also I was working furiously on my high-school algebra to try to make sense of it all. And I think I succeeded.

Major variables:

HL= HD DVD sales in 2006
BL= BD sales in 2006

HW= HD DVD sales during the week considered
BW= BD sales during the week considered

HY= HD DVD sales in 2007, but before the week considered
BY= BD sales in 2007, but before the week considered

YTD= HD DVD/BD YTD sales ratio as of the week considered
SI= HD DVD/BD sales ratio since inception up to the week considered

It follows that

YTD= (HY + HW) / (BY + BW)

SI = (HL + HY + HW) / (BL + BY + BW)

and

BW = ((HL - SI * BL) / (SI - YTD)) - BY
HW = YTD (BY + BW) - HY

Therefore the only real unknowns are the HD DVD and BD sales volumes in 2006. If we knew that, we could go week by week and calculate everything.

heavyharmonies

02-02-07, 08:17 PM

Not to shout a big "I told you so" but what did I post 2 days ago in this very thread when the gloating was at full steam?

...you do realize that the sales numbers for both formats combined are so small that it would not take much to invert the trend (or steepen it), right? Any time you are working with small samples/populations, it doesn't take much to skew the results one way or the other.

We very well could see the trends cross one another back and forth several times over the course of 2007 and into 2008 before anything definitive occurs.

If people are going to ride this emotional rollercoaster every week on both sides, therapists are going to make a fortune. ;)

roma_victor

02-02-07, 08:17 PM

Right now, things are simply too much in a state of flux.

Where's that flux capacitor when you need one?

btw - good post, and I again appreciate the civility of your (and others') posts here

Sketcha

02-02-07, 08:21 PM

Not to shout a big "I told you so" but what did I post 2 days ago in this very thread when the gloating was at full steam?

If people are going to ride this emotional rollercoaster every week on both sides, therapists are going to make a fortune. ;)
:D :D :D

Maybe yours is the one doing well these days?

Yes, you called it. Nice work.

Pat-pat-pat :p

Sketcha

02-02-07, 08:26 PM

I have taken the numbers from the new issue which is now up, but for which there is still no link on the main page. I think it would be inappropriate to put it up on the initial post before it gets official.

Also I was working furiously on my high-school algebra to try to make sense of it all. And I think I succeeded.

Major variables:

HL= HD DVD sales in 2006
BL= BD sales in 2006

HW= HD DVD sales during the week considered
BW= BD sales during the week considered

HY= HD DVD sales in 2007, but before the week considered
BY= BD sales in 2007, but before the week considered

YTD= HD DVD/BD YTD sales ratio as of the week considered
SI= HD DVD/BD sales ratio since inception up to the week considered

It follows that

YTD= (HY + HW) / (BY + BW)

SI = (HL + HY + HW) / (BL + BY + BW)

and

BW = ((HL - SI * BL) / (SI - YTD)) - BY
HW = YTD (BY + BW) - HY

Therefore the only real unknowns are the HD DVD and BD sales volumes in 2006. If we knew that, we could go week by week and calculate everything.

Seems there should be a way to extrapolate/interpolate some hard numbers out of this. My Trig is beyond rusty. Hell, it was rusty when I took it 15 years ago. Now it's a red/orange sand pile.

At the very least, someone should be able to plug in some numbers and go trial and error until they narrow it down, don't ya' think?

darinp2

02-02-07, 08:26 PM

Therefore the only real unknowns are the HD DVD and BD sales volumes in 2006. If we knew that, we could go week by week and calculate everything.I doubt we'll get exact numbers, but I think we should start with 1.5 million for HD DVD and 80% of that for Blu-ray (1.2 million) for 2006 and see what that would result in here. At least see if the numbers would look believable for each of the 3 weeks in January.

--Darin

PeterTHX

02-02-07, 08:26 PM

Doesn't that sort of burst the bubble of the whole "BD new releases up against HD catalog releases" arguement?

No, especially since HD DVD folk had no trouble doing it last summer before Warner, Paramount, Fox, Disney had started releasing.

The whole thing is studio support. Fine, Universal will release 100 titles this year (supposedly). That is negated by Sony who will also release 100 titles. Warner & Paramount release equally for both formats. Weinstein is supposed to start releasing BDs soon as well. That leaves Fox, Lionsgate, Disney, MGM, etc making the numbers permanently lopsided in BD's favor.

Software sells hardware.

darinp2

02-02-07, 08:27 PM

Weinstein is supposed to start releasing BDs soon as well. I haven't heard anything about that. Do you have some real information you can share on that one?

--Darin

Sean_O

02-02-07, 08:28 PM

That is negated by Sony who will also release 100 titles.

Is there a press release or source for this info? I assume you are being honest, I would just like to see the titles or the actual statement if possible, thanks.

eurotrance

02-02-07, 08:28 PM

No, especially since HD DVD folk had no trouble doing it last summer before Warner, Paramount, Fox, Disney had started releasing.

The whole thing is studio support. Fine, Universal will release 100 titles this year (supposedly). That is negated by Sony who will also release 100 titles. Warner & Paramount release equally for both formats. Weinstein is supposed to start releasing BDs soon as well. That leaves Fox, Lionsgate, Disney, MGM, etc making the numbers permanently lopsided in BD's favor.

Software sells hardware.

Could you point us to Weinstein's statement of them doing BD soon ?

Sketcha

02-02-07, 08:30 PM

I haven't heard anything about that. Do you have some real information you can share on that one?

--Darin

Yeah. Me neither. I heard one guy say he though it was likely; what was it, something like because Weinstein can smell a dollar in the next state?

That's all I've heard.

JBlacklow

02-02-07, 08:38 PM

I think he means this news from last September, although it's not necessarily Weinstein Studios, but their distribution partners:

Genius Jumps into HD DVD, Blu-ray (http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/235)

Genius Products, the home video distribution partner of The Weinstein Company, have announced their first wave of HD DVD titles will debut this holidays season, with Blu-ray support to follow early next year.

At presstime, only the thriller 'Derailed' has been given a definite release date of December 5, though Genius plans to release seven HD DVD titles by the end of 2006, spread across two waves. Among other titles expected to be included in the lineup are 'Clerks 2,' 'Scary Movie 4,' 'Wolf Creek,' 'Pulse' and 'The Matador.'

Early next year, Genius also plans to unleash their first Blu-ray titles, beginning with releases from ESPN, which is owned by ABC/Disney, a big Blu-ray backer.

nataraj

02-02-07, 08:43 PM

Now try to combine all these of techniques and add several other layers of processes and things I'm unaware of. ;)

Yes, it needs a lot of extrapolation etc. The techniques for those are developed and perfected over the years for DVD.

Do they use the same techniques for HiDef DVD. Does that hold good on something so new ? Do the ratio of HiDef sales in retailers they monitor to retailers they can't monitor hold good.

Lots of valid questions .... for anyone with a background in statistics and MR.

Grubert

02-02-07, 08:52 PM

Why hasn't the first post been updated with the Jan 21st numbers?

Hmmm?????

Too hard to believe? Too painful? Denial?

One other thing, before I go to bed (it's 2.50 a.m. here) I want to underline how despicable I find that innuendo and defamation. You have no call to question my integrity or credibility. My posting background, on the distilled news thread and on the release calendar, speaks for itself. Not to mention the fact that the only hidef player I have is an HD DVD player.

In short: you're out of line.

rdjam

02-02-07, 08:54 PM

Genius Jumps into HD DVD, Blu-ray

Genius Products, the home video distribution partner of The Weinstein Company, have announced their first wave of HD DVD titles will debut this holidays season, with Blu-ray support to follow early next year.

At presstime, only the thriller 'Derailed' has been given a definite release date of December 5, though Genius plans to release seven HD DVD titles by the end of 2006, spread across two waves. Among other titles expected to be included in the lineup are 'Clerks 2,' 'Scary Movie 4,' 'Wolf Creek,' 'Pulse' and 'The Matador.'

Early next year, Genius also plans to unleash their first Blu-ray titles, beginning with releases from ESPN, which is owned by ABC/Disney, a big Blu-ray backer. I think he means this news from last September, although it's not necessarily Weinstein Studios, but their distribution partners:
I remember there was a big debate on this in the past.

The article is speaking of GENIUS, as a distributor, only.

Genius is handling HD DVD distirbution for Weinstein, who IS *HD DVD exclusive* - and Genius is also handling Bluray distribution for ESPN, and other *Bluray-exclusive* sources.

Weinstein is HD exclusive and is no-more going to produce Bluray discs, than Disney-owned ESPN would do HD DVD.

That is how I remember it - however if there is any information from Weinstein that would supercede their previous position, I would be happy to entertain it...

rdjam

02-02-07, 08:58 PM

I'll back Grubert on that one. I have found him a very solid source of news and I would have no doubt that he would give us the Videoscan data as he gets it.

(ok, now hurry up! :) )

EDIT - second thoughts, it's really late there - Go get some sleep! :)

dialog_gvf

02-02-07, 09:02 PM

Is there a press release or source for this info? I assume you are being honest, I would just like to see the titles or the actual statement if possible, thanks.

paidgeek said it.

There was no press release, AFAIK.

Gary

Larry Sutliff

02-02-07, 09:03 PM

I'm glad you're amused.

However, I don't know how far you got in this thread, but if you check out some posts following the one you just quoted, you will see that he was wrong about his prediction.

Still, I have to admit, it was a pretty funny post.

Cheers

EDIT: Well thanks for updating your post and makin' me look like a jerk!

That's my job! ;)

I just deleted the whole message. After looking at how civil this thread has become, I'm embarassed. :o Sorry again.

xbdestroya

02-02-07, 09:08 PM

paidgeek said it.

There was no press release, AFAIK.

Gary

The release was at CES:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070109:M TFH99605_2007-01-09_01-26-53_N08420903&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Dahlsim

02-02-07, 09:55 PM

For sure, the numbers now seem to be dwarfing the previous eight months. And, once again, you have to wonder how wise it was for Universal to decide to be sitting on the sidelines for the next few months given this explosion?

Universals delayed schedule appears now to be strategic. Going to 90% combo format and hinting at more interactivity in thier releases as well would push back a production schedule.

Sketcha

02-02-07, 09:59 PM

I just deleted the whole message. After looking at how civil this thread has become, I'm embarassed. :o Sorry again.

Well there ya go leaving me hanging out to dry again. Guess I'd better delete mine too. :)

No problem. Glad you feel that way... about the civility, that is. ;)

Take care

kdragon

02-02-07, 10:08 PM

Data in graphical form:
These are based on percentage sales (not normalized to 100):

SI (bd_hd_si.png)
BD % HD %
45.96 54.04 1/7
48.02 51.98 1/14
45.15 54.85 1/21
http://img470.imageshack.us/img470/4586/bdhdsiru3.th.png (http://img470.imageshack.us/my.php?image=bdhdsiru3.png)

YTD (bd_hd_ytd.png)
BD % HD %
67.96 32.04 1/7
72.28 27.72 1/14
66.44 33.56 1/21
http://img372.imageshack.us/img372/6408/bdhdytdvx6.th.png (http://img372.imageshack.us/my.php?image=bdhdytdvx6.png)

Amiable-Akuma

02-02-07, 10:21 PM

Sorry if this has been asked but when will we get the "week ending Jan. 28" numbers?

xboxboi

02-02-07, 11:25 PM

One other thing, before I go to bed (it's 2.50 a.m. here) I want to underline how despicable I find that innuendo and defamation. You have no call to question my integrity or credibility. My posting background, on the distilled news thread and on the release calendar, speaks for itself. Not to mention the fact that the only hidef player I have is an HD DVD player.

In short: you're out of line.

this type of people should be banned. So, report him to the mod! :rolleyes:

wnorris

02-03-07, 12:00 AM

What timeframe are you using for your 20 to 11 numbers and what list of releases? From using Grubert's list I don't see a time when it was 20 to 11 for a period preceding January 14th (or January 21st). I see 10 for Blu-ray vs 11 for HD DVD include 12/19/06 to 1/14/07, 22 vs 22 for 12/05/07 to 1/14/07, and 47 vs 42 for 11/14/07 to 1/14/07, but not 20 vs 11.

--Darin

I'm quoting the article from the magazine.

xbdestroya

02-03-07, 12:02 AM

Ok... something is wrong with these Nielsen numbers, and I'd love if we could figure out what. I've been trying to kill some time right now by attempting to create a math model that breaks these relative percentages down into 'units sold,' where 'units' are normalized against some arbitrary number we pick... but there is something just not making sense here.

There are three weeks in January accounted for in this data; that's obvious. Doing the math from point 1 to point 2 makes sense enough; even doing the math from point 2 to point 3 would make sense. But the results you glean from calculating *either* of those, will leave you hanging in attemping to unify all three. There is simply no possible way that in these three given weeks, Blu-ray can end with a sales lead over HD DVD for the year-to-date of about 2:1, yet ultimately end up lower relative to HD DVD in total units sold than from where it ends the first week!

Something is crazy wrong with these figures, and I think we're just going to have to step back until Nielsen can provide something a little more consistent. It's either that, or there's legacy sales data from last year that just now made it into the SI figures, but one would expect (or hope) a formal statement of such.

Personally I still think that these weekly sales figures are all we have to really go with, but mathematically something needs ironing out.

wnorris

02-03-07, 12:06 AM

I have taken the numbers from the new issue which is now up, but for which there is still no link on the main page. I think it would be inappropriate to put it up on the initial post before it gets official.

Also I was working furiously on my high-school algebra to try to make sense of it all. And I think I succeeded.

Major variables:

HL= HD DVD sales in 2006
BL= BD sales in 2006

HW= HD DVD sales during the week considered
BW= BD sales during the week considered

HY= HD DVD sales in 2007, but before the week considered
BY= BD sales in 2007, but before the week considered

YTD= HD DVD/BD YTD sales ratio as of the week considered
SI= HD DVD/BD sales ratio since inception up to the week considered

It follows that

YTD= (HY + HW) / (BY + BW)

SI = (HL + HY + HW) / (BL + BY + BW)

and

BW = ((HL - SI * BL) / (SI - YTD)) - BY
HW = YTD (BY + BW) - HY

Therefore the only real unknowns are the HD DVD and BD sales volumes in 2006. If we knew that, we could go week by week and calculate everything.

We know HD-DVD's, or at least a really good estimate. If you take Microsoft, Warner, and the HD-DVD group at their words, they said an attach rate of 8.4 discs per player (annualized to ~26) in 2006. They also said 175,000 players in 2006. So that is 1.47 million HD-DVD's in 006. This also corresponds to other data (1.5 million discs shipped, not sold, by November, makes 1.47 millions sales reasonable by the end of 2006).

I think this is a reasonable estimate, so there is one piece of your equation.

xbdestroya

02-03-07, 12:12 AM

We know HD-DVD's, or at least a really good estimate. If you take Microsoft, Warner, and the HD-DVD group at their words, they said an attach rate of 8.4 discs per player (annualized to ~26) in 2006. They also said 175,000 players in 2006. So that is 1.47 million HD-DVD's in 006. This also corresponds to other data (1.5 million discs shipped, not sold, by November, makes 1.47 millions sales reasonable by the end of 2006).

I think this is a reasonable estimate, so there is one piece of your equation.

That number though would not sync up at all with the data sets provided. The data set numbers won't sync up with *any* numbers.

xbdestroya

02-03-07, 12:42 AM

xboxboi

02-03-07, 12:46 AM

So Basically according to the charts, competing fanboys are celebrating HD DVD's demise because the data SHOWS that HD DVD is CLEARLY EXTENDING its sales lead over Blu-ray (Total disk sale (since inception)) ? This is ABSOLUTELY amazing. Check the data again (CLOSELY) and you would see that HD DVD is actually distancing itself from Blu--ray in 21 jan as compared to the 7th Jan figure. 7th Jan (54%-46%=8%) but in 21th (55%-45%=10%).

Don't hate me because i present rational facts... please ! I love you all ! Peace :)

xbdestroya

02-03-07, 01:01 AM

xboxboi

02-03-07, 01:04 AM

Yeah, it's nonsense - I've run the ratios past two other friends of mine who both have math minors. The sh*t don't add up. For HD DVD to somehow put that distance in between itself and BD while BD still holds a 2:1 for the year is an impossibility.

Something's gone crazy over at Nielsen - either that or legacy sales figures quietly snuck in.

it does actually. Take this variable into consideration in your math. It would make more sense .. the actual sales figure for the three January weeks were EXTREMELY small . ;) OMG all the cyber headlines screaming "BD leading HD DVD 2-1 - make arrangement for HD DVD funeral NOW" .. when the data actually show that HD DVD is extending its lead over BD.. so embarassing ..

xbdestroya

02-03-07, 01:07 AM

it does actually. Take this variable into consideration in your math. It would make more sense .. the actual sales figure for the three January weeks were EXTREMELY small . ;) OMG all the cyber headlines screaming "BD leading HD DVD 2-1 - make arrangement for HD DVD funeral NOW" .. when the data actually show that HD DVD is extending its lead over BD.. so embarassing ..

Frankly I don't think you have a grasp of math great enough to understand what you're talking about. If you can assign numbers - they can be *any* numbers - that would make your assumption work, I will buy you an HD DVD and have it delivered to your house. There is simply no way the three data sets can reconcile with one another; with the stated ratios it's a mathematical impossibility.

xboxboi

02-03-07, 01:08 AM

Xboxboi... I swear you're on a different planet.

(The one were 'rational' is spelled 'rasional')

There's nothing for anyone on either side to celebrate right now; something in the data is dangerously bogus.

ops :o sorry . i was momentarily overwhelmed by joy that i was fooled by the misleading headlines :D !!

xboxboi

02-03-07, 01:18 AM

Frankly I don't think you have a grasp of math great enough to understand what you're talking about. If you can assign numbers - they can be *any* numbers - that would make your assumption work, I will buy you an HD DVD and have it delivered to your house. There is simply no way the three data sets can reconcile with one another; with the stated ratios it's a mathematical impossibility.

please elaborate. this is what i see:

Weekly sales vs Sales Since Inception (Total sales)

7th Jan (54%-46%=8%) - 2 7th Jan (68%-32%=36%) - 2
14th Jan (52%-48%=6%) - 1 14th Jan (72%-28%=44%) - 1
21th (55%-45%=10%) - 3 21th Jan (66%-34%=32%) - 3

So you have been trying to give the %s values but the numbers do not fit?

nataraj

02-03-07, 01:21 AM

I agree. Probably mostly in December of 2006 even. That 10% increase Since Inception but only about 12% for the year for HD DVD still doesn't seem to correlate very well to me. If we even guessed 1.5 million HD DVDs sold in 2006, it seems like this year would have to have more than half of that sold for HD DVD in just 3 weeks. I haven't run the numbers though.

After 1st week of Jan BD was 85% of HD figures. So 80% on Jan 1 is not unreasonable.

But when I do the math, for the first two weeks it looks ok. But the third week doesn't compute. I need -ve sales to get the correct ratios.

BD HDDVD
Y06 1,200,000 1,500,000

Y07W1 126,406 59,594
Y07W2 161,225 50,714
Y07W3 -234,176 -87,563

xbdestroya

02-03-07, 01:26 AM

please elaborate. this is what i see:

Weekly sales vs Sales Since Inception (Total sales)

7th Jan (54%-46%=8%) - 2 7th Jan (68%-32%=36%) - 2
14th Jan (52%-48%=6%) - 1 14th Jan (72%-28%=44%) - 1
21th (55%-45%=10%) - 3 21th Jan (66%-34%=32%) - 3

So you have been trying to give the %s values but the numbers do not fit?

Exactly. *No*assigned numbers - and you could pick anything from the hundreds to the billions (I invite anyone to try, free HD film) - allow the ratios given by Nielsen to reconcile with one another. Something is flawed in their data; I'm not saying that from a BD fan stanpoint, an HD DVD fan standpoint, or anything like that... it's from a mathematical truism standpoint.

xboxboi

02-03-07, 01:30 AM

Exactly. *No*assigned numbers - and you could pick anything from the hundreds to the billions (I invite anyone to try, free HD film) - allow the ratios given by Nielsen to reconcile with one another. Something is flawed in their data; I'm not saying that from a BD fan stanpoint, an HD DVD fan standpoint, or anything like that... it's from a mathematical truism standpoint.

please someone !! so i can claim my XA2 !! :D :D :D :D

hawkeye3.1

02-03-07, 01:30 AM

[QUOTE=xbdestroya]Ok... something is wrong with these Nielsen numbers /QUOTE]

I agree. If you believe the YTD, the SI bump for HD DVD just can not be.

Check my math:

Week 1 sales ratio - BD 100:47 or BD 68%, HD DVD 32%
Week 2 sales ratio - BD 100:29 or BD 78%, HD DVD 22% = YTD BD 100:38
Week 3 sales ratio - BD 100:74 or BD 57%, HD DVD 43% = YTD BD 100:50

If SI figures for week 1 and 2 are accurate, SI thru week 3 was probably more like HD DVD 100:94 by my guess.

Here's my $.02.

Weeks 1 and 2 had no new titles for HD DVD. In fact, the average market age for the top 5 selling titles was 23 and 18 weeks, the most recent release of the bunch was 11 weeks old. Customers buying these title were predominantly very recent adopters. Now there is no way of knowing what share of total the top 5 represents, but one can ascertain trends from them. Older titles = newer buyers in general, IMO.

Contrasting that with average age of BDs top 5 titles for week 1 and 2 of 4 and 10 weeks old, including a new release both weeks and many from weeks just previous, a picture emerges where HD DVD buyers new to the market were seriously outnumbered by both new and veteran BD buyers.

Week 3's fresh HD DVD releases brought a more balanced ratio of new and veteran HD DVD buyers to the register. The result being a much closer sales ratio of BD 4:3.

As always, YMMV.

xboxboi

02-03-07, 01:39 AM

^ Someone doctored the data to make HD DVD sales ratio for week 3 look bad? :p .. kidding ..

kdragon

02-03-07, 02:33 AM

apexmi

02-03-07, 04:34 AM

I think if you look back at the predictions I made (most recently after CES in an article that I wrote), you will find that the recent Videoscan news is very compatible with some of the things I suggested would happen.

Since you ask for specific predictions, let me put on my turbin and see what I can come up with.

I predict that by summer (specifically by VSDA) the format war will be looking a lot different.
-- Sales will be way up for Blu-ray, continuing their current trend.
-- Weinstein will start Blu-ray support. [Harvey Weinstein can smell a dollar in the next state, he will not miss this opportunity.] This has only psychological impact of course since Weinstein has few titles.
-- There will be pressure on Universal to use THD (effectively going neutral).

I further predict that by CES 2008 the matter will be resolved.
-- All studios will be supporting Blu-ray, and only legacy support for HD DVD will be happening. Studios that supported HD DVD will continue for the present but the handwriting will be on the wall.
-- Toshiba will announce combo players or outright Blu-ray players.
-- HDTV sales will be much higher than currently expected.
-- Blu-ray sales will be much higher than expected with a clear path to adoption of Blu-ray as the successor to DVD.
-- Meridian will announce a high-end Blu-ray player (with no mention of their ostensible HD DVD player).

I wish I could add universal peace and an end to global warming but this is the best I can do.

I base this on the following:
-- CE, retailer, and studio support for Blu-ray, coupled with a strong desire to end the format war
-- Current and projected title announcements
-- Current player announcements
-- Most of all, current sales trends.

[I don't really know that this will happen. But you asked for specifics, so I am willing to go with this and eat crow accordingly. I am sure your predictions are as likely to come true as mine are BTW.]

Did some make a fresh bath of Kool-Aid!!!!!!!!! :eek: :eek:

Chris_TC

02-03-07, 06:03 AM

With 100:92.3 (assuming that 82.3 was a typo), it looks more reasonable! :)

Not really. Why would Blu-ray sales go down by two thirds from one week to the next?

It seems obvious that there is an error in the posted numbers somewhere. But we don't know which of the numbers is incorrect. Maybe one of the previous weeks contained the error, who knows.

But really, I think it makes the most sense that the YTD ratio of the third week is incorrect and should be higher than 100 : 50.51.
Maybe it's 100 : 80.51 or something, that would probably get the numbers to match more easily.

Kosty

02-03-07, 10:25 AM

That number though would not sync up at all with the data sets provided. The data set numbers won't sync up with *any* numbers. Would the numbers make sense if the third weeks sales were dramatically higher in volume than the first two weeks, and the new HD DVD sales spike was much larger than the previous weeks Blu-ray gap?

Or maybe , just guessing here, the YTD or SI stats are not just a cumulation of the weekly stats but include revisions in HD DVD s favor. Maybe a major pro HD DVD retailer was late in reporting weekly stats, but they got included in the SI and YTD stats?

.

f300v10

02-03-07, 10:49 AM

Here is a link to the most recent issue of HomeMediaMagazine, the Jan. 21 data is from page 3:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hmr020407/

Schlotkins

02-03-07, 11:16 AM

b2bonez

02-03-07, 11:21 AM

1-21-07 chart attached..

b2b

rdjam

02-03-07, 11:22 AM

Well, I've sat back as much as I can, reading this all, but I think it's gotten nowhere as far as finding out what's really going on.

I friend of mine has told me that over the last 2 days, someone from the Bluray side has been sending this data out to LOTS of the main magazines and web sites - with the summary that Bluray has been outselling HD DVD by a 2 to 1 factor, for the week of January 21. He had spoken to a few himself about it.

BUt now, according to all this debate, Bluray DID NOT outsell HD DVD at all in the thrid week of Jan. So where is this 2 to 1 coming from?

What is wrong with the numbers why no one here is able to agree. Aren't sales numbers supposed to be black and white, or are these just useless guides?

xbdestroya

02-03-07, 11:23 AM

Would the numbers make sense if the third weeks sales were dramatically higher in volume than the first two weeks, and the new HD DVD sales spike was much larger than the previous weeks Blu-ray gap?

Nope, they still don't make sense. Believe me, if you've been reading my postsa throughout the thread, then you know when I initially saw these numbers I dismissed the strangeness and assumed exactly that. But upon actually working with them... simply nothing works.

Or maybe , just guessing here, the YTD or SI stats are not just a cumulation of the weekly stats but include revisions in HD DVD s favor. Maybe a major pro HD DVD retailer was late in reporting weekly stats, but they got included in the SI and YTD stats?

Maybe. Maybe any number of things though. I think we just need to wait for thr next weeks data to see if the error of this week obviates itself. *Whatever* those numbers end up being, it will lend an insight one way or another.

I'm not sure why all of the sudden these numbers are wrong but two points:

1) There is no way to figure out what the percentage for HD-DVD was in week 3. Without volumes, the system of equations will have infinite values.

There *is* a way; like you said we have infinite values to choose from. But what I am telling you, is that even with infinite values, there is no solution that matches the stated ratios.

2) From week 1 ->, the YTD HD-DVD numbers went down 9% and the SI numbers for Blu-ray went up 7.3%. From week 2 -> 3, the HD-DVD numbers went up 12% (which should be twice as hard as the 1 -> 2 change) and the SI numbers went down for blu-ray 10%. This number, compared to the week 1 to 2 change, seem reasonable to me.

It's not about what seems reasonable and what doesn't though; it's about what is possible according to the rules of mathematics.

Well, I've sat back as much as I can, reading this all, but I think it's gotten nowhere as far as finding out what's really going on.

It's gotten somewhere - basically there's an error in the data, so the truth is obscured from us. The error could be in week 1, week 2, week 3... anywhere or everywhere.

BUt now, according to all this debate, Bluray DID NOT outsell HD DVD at all in the thrid week of Jan. So where is this 2 to 1 coming from?

The 2-to-1 is a sales ratio for the entirety of 2007. That ratio may or may not be correct at this point, but that's where it comes from.

What is wrong with the numbers why no one here is able to agree. Aren't sales numbers supposed to be black and white, or are these just useless guides?

This guide, for the moment, is rendered useless. We need some sort of correction and/or adjustment to be made officially. Hopefully Week 4 will provide that.

************************************************

I truly ask that before anyone else post a "what if..." scenario, they actually try doing the math themselves. Grab some numbers - any numbers - and try it out. You'll see how crazy things start getting real fast.

To discuss these ratios in the context of their possibly being correct is just a little too tedious from here on out; I would find it akin to debating someone with a pro-ID position. The math just doesn't work, and no figures from the world of positive integers would make it work.

plazman

02-03-07, 11:34 AM

I'm not sure why all of the sudden these numbers are wrong but two points:

1) There is no way to figure out what the percentage for HD-DVD was in week 3. Without volumes, the system of equations will have infinite values.

2) From week 1 ->, the YTD HD-DVD numbers went down 9% and the SI numbers for Blu-ray went up 7.3%. From week 2 -> 3, the HD-DVD numbers went up 12% (which should be twice as hard as the 1 -> 2 change) and the SI numbers went down for blu-ray 10%. This number, compared to the week 1 to 2 change, seem reasonable to me.

Chris

This is why I keep bringing up the issue of volume. I am sure most are aware of dvdempire. Right? This site was reporting 2:1 sales advantage for BD for most of Jan and YTD. Guess what? This is what it shows now!

Format:
Blu-Ray HD-DVD

Week: 61.67% 38.33%
Month: 46.15% 53.85%
Year: 56.31% 43.69%

So, it would indicate a radical swing within a period of 2 weeks. Looks like HD DVD gained back 10% for the month.

Does 'month' mean for the month of Jan? Probably, since the week shows BD in the lead....

Without knowing the volume, % are hard to go by. Things are not what they seem.

JBCricket

02-03-07, 11:40 AM

plazman , that is for the month of February.

patrick99

02-03-07, 11:41 AM

b.greenway

02-03-07, 11:47 AM

If Johnny sold 82% more lemonade over the summer than sally but sally only sold 2 lemonades to begin with...

Did Johnny sell enough lemonade to warrant this ridiculous notion that we're even close to deciding who'll win the format war?

xbdestroya

02-03-07, 11:49 AM

Does 'month' mean for the month of Jan? Probably, since the week shows BD in the lead....

Plaz, this is a link to the expanded DVDEmpire data:

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp?view=1&userid=99365313005188

As you'll notice, every single week of January favors Blu-ray. I *hope* I don't need to explain to anyone how greater BD sales during every week in the month resulting in a figure of 54:46 for HD DVD in January is another impossibility. ;)

So 'month' means February; either that or it's in its own limbo pseudo-math zone along with Nielsen.

Without knowing the volume, % are hard to go by. Things are not what they seem.

They're hard, but not impossible, and that's the point. I worked this for hours last night, trying to reconcile. I called friends of mine at IBM that also enjoy a good math problem; same result. It doesn't reconcile. Things here are definitely what they seem: whacked out Nielsen numbers.

Timothy Ramzyk

02-03-07, 11:50 AM

This is why I keep bringing up the issue of volume. I am sure most are aware of dvdempire. Right? This site was reporting 2:1 sales advantage for BD for most of Jan and YTD. Guess what? This is what it shows now!

I think the most alarming statistic is that everyone seems to shop at DVD Empire when Deep Discount is a couple bucks cheaper per title. ;)

Sketcha

02-03-07, 11:57 AM

This is why I keep bringing up the issue of volume. I am sure most are aware of dvdempire. Right? This site was reporting 2:1 sales advantage for BD for most of Jan and YTD. Guess what? This is what it shows now!

Format:
Blu-Ray HD-DVD

Week: 61.67% 38.33%
Month: 46.15% 53.85%
Year: 56.31% 43.69%

So, it would indicate a radical swing within a period of 2 weeks. Looks like HD DVD gained back 10% for the month.

Does 'month' mean for the month of Jan? Probably, since the week shows BD in the lead....

Without knowing the volume, % are hard to go by. Things are not what they seem.
Well, as I said before, my math is a little rusty, but my instincts told me something was wrong from the get-go, yesterday morning. And please don't try to pin this on fanboy-ism. If you have real numbers to prove these figures work to the contrary of so many above, I would be very interested in seeing them.

I was hoping someone with stronger math skills would plug in some numbers and test these percentages and they have.

From my standpoint it was so obvious that something was really weird when...

1/14/07-1/21/07

1. HD DVD makes ONLY a ~ 12 point gain, YTD in one week

while...

2. BD loses 10 points SI in the same week?

All I could figure, without really crunching, is that both formats must have made a MASSIVE leap in sales for January!

But then, as our esteemed colleagues have shown, things get worse when you add in the 3rd week!

I believe, if the percentages are right, you should be able to plug in some given sales figures and produce a working result. Doesn't appear to be happening.

Again, not saying BD is slaughtering HD DVD (anymore ;) .) It's quite possible that when this problem is solved (likely by a discovery that at least one of Videoscan's figures is wrong,) it could prove even worse for my precious Blu-ray.

Bottom line, until someone can show me otherwise, the numbers just don't add up. If you don't believe that, show us some real figures to back your claim. So far, AFAIC, the math is clearly on the, doesn't compute side of things.

But I'm certainly open for some good evidence to the contrary.

EDIT: Me: "And please don't try to pin this on fanboy-ism."

Not that you would, Plaz. Post was meant to be read in general.

plazman

02-03-07, 12:09 PM

Plaz, this is a link to the expanded DVDEmpire data:

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp?view=1&userid=99365313005188

As you'll notice, every single week of January favors Blu-ray. I *hope* I don't need to explain to anyone how greater BD sales during every week in the month resulting in a figure of 54:46 for HD DVD in January is another impossibility. ;)

So 'month' means February; either that or it's in its own limbo pseudo-math zone along with Nielsen.

They're hard, but not impossible, and that's the point. I worked this for hours last night, trying to reconcile. I called friends of mine at IBM that also enjoy a good math problem; same result. It doesn't reconcile. Things here are definitely what they seem: whacked out Nielsen numbers.

So, if every week of Jan was greater for BD and the current week (which is Feb) is greater for BD, how come the month was better for HD DVD? How come the gap closed for the year? Not possible. Either their weekly numbers or off or their MTD and YTD numbers are off....without knowing enough about how they compile their numbers, the only conclusion I can come up with is that their data at present is unreliable. So, whether it looks good for BD or HD DVD, it's not reliable. Period.

The Neilson data makes no sense to me whatsoever! Their Weekly sales and it's impact on SI and YTD are almost impossible to reconcile - at least for me that is.

plazman

02-03-07, 12:15 PM

I think the most alarming statistic is that everyone seems to shop at DVD Empire when Deep Discount is a couple bucks cheaper per title. ;)

I think people go there to see the sales trend and then buy a disk to support the format of their choice :D

plazman

02-03-07, 12:17 PM

Well, as I said before, my math is a little rusty, but my instincts told me something was wrong from the get-go, yesterday morning. And please don't try to pin this on fanboy-ism. If you have real numbers to prove these figures work to the contrary of so many above, I would be very interested in seeing them.

I was hoping someone with stronger math skills would plug in some numbers and test these percentages and they have.

From my standpoint it was so obvious that something was really weird when...

1/14/07-1/21/07

1. HD DVD makes ONLY a ~ 12 point gain, YTD in one week

while...

2. BD loses 10 points SI

All I could figure, without really crunching, is that both formats must have made a MASSIVE leap in sales for January!

But then, as our esteemed colleagues have shown, things get worse when you add in the 3rd week!

I believe, if the percentages are right, you should be able to plug in some given sales figures and produce a working result. Doesn't appear to be happening.

Again, not saying BD is slaughtering HD DVD (anymore ;) .) It's quite possible that when this problem is solved (likely by a discovery that at least one of Videoscan's figures is wrong,) it could prove even worse for my precious Blu-ray.

Bottom line, until someone can show me otherwise, the numbers just don't add up. If you don't believe that, show us some real figures to back your claim. So far, AFAIC, the math is clearly on the, doesn't compute side of things.

But I'm certainly open for some good evidence to the contrary.

EDIT: Me: "And please don't try to pin this on fanboy-ism."

Not that you would, Plaz. Post was meant to be read in general.

We are in agreement. The Math doesn't seem to make much sense to me as well. :)

This must the new math. I'm from the old math education system

xbdestroya

02-03-07, 12:18 PM

So, if every week of Jan was greater for BD and the current week (which is Feb) is greater for BD, how come the month was better for HD DVD? How come the gap closed for the year? Not possible. Either their weekly numbers or off or their MTD and YTD numbers are off....without knowing enough about how they compile their numbers, the only conclusion I can come up with is that their data at present is unreliable. So, whether it looks good for BD or HD DVD, it's not reliable. Period.

I would be surprised if DVDEmpire messed their numbers up; it should be a simple matter for them to keep it straight. My belief is that 'month' in an absolute fashion includes only sales during said month... so the last two-three days. Whereas the "week" inclusive of a month/split would be seperated out datawise for the purposes of month:month data. Remember, they could give us daily numbers if they wanted, so fine-grain distinctions such as months with overlapping weekly data I think should be easy enough.

DVDEmpire IMO is still sqaured up. And since the data should be for 'week ended,' Jan 30th's highly BD-slanted numbers still allow for the following week (which includes February and the week we're in) to go towards HD DVD without messing anything up.

Remember, the week of 30th data is behind us; the month of Feb data is not included there. Keep straight that the figures are for the weeks ending the stated dates, and I think it will all even out in your analysis of it.

The Neilson data makes no sense to me whatsoever! Their Weekly sales and it's impact on SI and YTD are almost impossible to reconcile - at least for me that is.

It's not almost impossible - it *is* impossible. ;)

Sketcha

02-03-07, 12:21 PM

We are in agreement. The Math doesn't seem to make much sense to me as well. :)

This must the new math. I'm from the old math education system
:D

Yeah, I'm waiting for "M" theory to come into this discussion. Something must've slipped from the 11th dimension into one of our own. That would explain it.

JBCricket

02-03-07, 12:21 PM

http://i84.photobucket.com/albums/k28/JBCricket/Feb3.jpg

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp?userid=99365312992879

plazman

02-03-07, 12:23 PM

http://i84.photobucket.com/albums/k28/JBCricket/Feb3.jpg

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp?userid=99365312992879

So HD DVD is ahead for Feb, but behind for the week! Now that is interesting :)

Sketcha

02-03-07, 12:30 PM

So HD DVD is ahead for Feb, but behind for the week! Now that is interesting :)

Doesn't it work fine if you take (from xbdestroya) that the week ENDS January 30th?

SyHD

02-03-07, 12:32 PM

So HD DVD is ahead for Feb, but behind for the week! Now that is interesting :)

Considering this is only the 3rd day of the month and the 6th day of the week ...its highly plausible. They probably had a few HD DVD fans going on a spending spree the last three days. It goes to show that it doesn't take that much to change the data.

plazman

02-03-07, 12:33 PM

I would be surprised if DVDEmpire messed their numbers up; it should be a simple matter for them to keep it straight. My belief is that 'month' in an absolute fashion includes only sales during said month... so the last two-three days. Whereas the "week" inclusive of a month/split would be seperated out datawise for the purposes of month:month data. Remember, they could give us daily numbers if they wanted, so fine-grain distinctions such as months with overlapping weekly data I think should be easy enough.

DVDEmpire IMO is still sqaured up. And since the data should be for 'week ended,' Jan 30th's highly BD-slanted numbers still allow for the following week (which includes February and the week we're in) to go towards HD DVD without messing anything up.

Remember, the week of 30th data is behind us; the month of Feb data is not included there. Keep straight that the figures are for the weeks ending the stated dates, and I think it will all even out in your analysis of it.

It's not almost impossible - it *is* impossible. ;)

Perhaps I wasn't paying attention to dvdempire, but whenever I checked from a link on AVS it showed me a 25-30 point spread between BD and HD DVD for every week of Jan. Then I see that at the end of the month it was actually a 13 point difference. Much smaller than I was used to seeing there...

Also, if HD DVD is ahead for the 3 days of Feb by 10 points or so and for the entire week they are behind by 25 points, then for the last few days in Jan, BD must have out sold by what a 10:1 ratio?? But if that were the case, then the monthly sales ratio should have have narrowed (as they appear to have). oops. I am confusing myself again :)

Gotta pick up the wife from the spa :eek:

plazman

02-03-07, 12:37 PM

Doesn't it work fine if you take (from xbdestroya) that the week ENDS January 30th?

I heard they are substituting the Bud Bowl commerical during the super bowl halftime show with a HD Format Bowl - sponsored by Amazon, dvdempire and Videoscan :D

That will give us the real score....

Sketcha

02-03-07, 12:42 PM

I heard they are substituting the Bud Bowl commerical during the super bowl halftime show with a HD Format Bowl - sponsored by Amazon, dvdempire and Videoscan :D

That will give us the real score....
:D :D :D

Will it still be hosted by Dan BEERdorf?

JBCricket

02-03-07, 12:44 PM

plazman - the difference may be explained if the number of units sold is small. Then just a few sold for a given formant could swing the percentages.

nataraj

02-03-07, 01:09 PM

If I assume SI ratio of 100:91 (instead of reported 100:82.3) this is what I get:

I think the possibilities are :

1. Nielsen is using some weird extrapolation techniques used in DVD that don't hold good for HiDef DVD i.e. their numbers are not trustworthy.

2. They got some extra data which was of a year to date nature that was not reflected in their earlier week's data i.e. the current data invalidates their earlier week's data.

3. They are using inaccurate slide rulers to calculate the ratios ...

I'm going to take all these numbers with a bag of salt until we get atleast internally consistent numbers.

Kosty

02-03-07, 01:09 PM

...for my precious Blu-ray. ...channeling Gollum now? :D

Let's not take this stuff that seriously! Your not scaling Mt Doom with Frodo. ;)

Sketcha

02-03-07, 01:20 PM

...channeling Gollum now? :D

Let's not take this stuff that seriously! Your not scaling Mt Doom with Frodo. ;)

Whoa!!!

Kosty!!!

What did you do?

I was about to throw some grins on your "precious Blu-ray" response.

EDIT: And as far as that quote is concerned, I was trying to make funny with SamwiseTheBrave.

Grubert

02-03-07, 01:22 PM

This is really weird. It seems impossible to find a set of numbers that fit the three YTD and SI points.

Kosty

02-03-07, 01:23 PM

The forum is screwy today, I was in the middle of an edit and it was like a dropped cellular call! Came out a little weird......

Issac Hunt

02-03-07, 01:24 PM

2. They got some extra data which was of a year to date nature that was not reflected in their earlier week's data i.e. the current data invalidates their earlier week's data.
There's another possibility that fits on the end of this one: that Neilson have recently added a new data point (a new series of sales outlets) to their record taking, which has altered the new results. This is quite likely and would explian the change in results.

Kosty

02-03-07, 01:27 PM

This is really weird. It seems impossible to find a set of numbers that fit the three YTD and SI points. maybe they did revise the SI and YTD, with new data, and the weekly stats for the past few weeks actually were revised, but we don't have the revised numbers for those weeks, because their not taking this as seriously as we are here....?

rdjam

02-03-07, 01:28 PM

Thinking outside the box, there could be another explanation... but it's quite conspiratorial :p Those who don't like conspiracies, close your eyes!

There's been a bit of news again about the payola pay-for-play scandals.

What if someone was paying someone to head to the shops once a week to buy lots of discs from one format. What would happen if that fellow got sick one day and missed his run to the shops causing the overall sales to be lower and the othe format to gain?

(cue Twilight zone music)... :D

Grubert

02-03-07, 01:33 PM

apog

02-03-07, 01:38 PM

Does this also impact the accuracy of the SI numbers as a whole?

GmanAVS

02-03-07, 01:41 PM

The problems with interpreting the Videoscan weekly % data is 3 fold:

No exact hard starting #s nor hard #s for any prior given sales period (tho we can use the HD DVD forum ones for 2006 and infer BD onesfrom there).

Revisions (to any part of prior data) *main problem*.

Lack of any overall (combined formats) volume sales benchmark #s *minor*.

I have sent an email to Videoscan asking them to please release some hard unit sales figures for either format and specify the corresponding period as well. I also asked them to identify the sources of their data (doubtfull I'll see those tho).

I encourage all to do the same, perhaps we can get then to shed some light on what is going on.... hey, they have the #s, why can't we.

Gman

patrick99

02-03-07, 01:44 PM

Kosty

02-03-07, 01:47 PM

GmanAVS

02-03-07, 01:51 PM

Kosty

02-03-07, 01:53 PM

Good job Grubert!!

them pasky combos not making life any cheaper nor easier... lol ..and if Universal places 90% of all new titles as combos?

&

Wait until we try to figure out whose buying Total HD discs...... :D :D

nataraj

02-03-07, 02:07 PM

In their latest data entry, next to "HD DVD" there is an asterisk, which refers to a note saying: "Includes HD DVD Combo". The sales info for weeks ending Jan 7 and Jan 14 did not include it.

Atleast if they restate their first two weeks numbers, we will get somewhere.

Ofcourse we don't know whether their SI numbers include combos. :mad:

rdjam

02-03-07, 02:08 PM

Sketcha

02-03-07, 02:14 PM

Atleast if they restate their first two weeks numbers, we will get somewhere.

Ofcourse we don't know whether their SI numbers include combos. :mad:
I think it's clear that the SI numbers do include combos. That's why the dramatic jump in SI, but so little in YTD.

So...

THIS week's (21st) data ONLY, includes correct figures for both SI and YTD.

That's my guess, anyway. Wouldn't want to go on record as fact when Nielsen has made such a bluder already.

BTW, nice work, Grubert!

Why the He11 didn't any of the rest of us pick up on that?!!!

EDIT: I misspelled "blunder." Irony?

Jeff Lampert

02-03-07, 02:17 PM

trgraphics

02-03-07, 02:20 PM

Sketcha

02-03-07, 02:24 PM

I think that HD DVD could use the combos as a very strong marketing approach since there will obviously be buyers of the combo who don't actually have an HD DVD player. It will certainly inflate the HD DVD sales figures, albeit artifically. Nothing wrong with that, since the Blu-ray has no problem including the PS3 in their install base figures, even though many (if not most) owners don't even have an HD TV to play Blu-ray discs on. It would be great if Unviersal didn't even make an SD DVD, but rather only the combo discs. Then all the combo purchases would be added into the HD DVD sales figures even though a large percentage obviously would be bought by people who don't own HD DVD players. I know it's sneaky, but Blu-ray wrote this book, and HD DVD could at least play the game.

O.K., you had me in the beginning. Combos ARE fair game since most buyers that you speak of,are likely to be interested in HD DVD, they just don't own a player yet. Who would buy the combo unless they have, or really hope to own an HD DVD player soon. A few morons making a mistake maybe, but not many.

Then your post went the sneaky direction so I'll just let that speak for itself.

Otherwise I thought your post was fair.

eurotrance

02-03-07, 02:42 PM

Very interesting that they didn't include combos when so many combos are in the HD-DVD titles lineup... I spin you round and round like a record baby...

Oh the irony... So are the websites like Digital Bits going to jump on this and start a whirlwind of rumors favoring HD-DVD ? Of course not...

johnbe

02-03-07, 02:49 PM

The studios know how many of each are selling so that is really what is going to keep each cranking out units in each format. Very few people read or understand these numbers anyway. A look at this thread pretty much shows that. And like has been pointed out, a few thousand in sales one way or the other, can swing the percentages one way or the other. I think that can happen especially on new releases, which blu-ray has had more of recently. I am talking about 2006 movies. And with Blockbuster and Netflix buying titles, that may be where most of the surge is coming from. They wouldn't pick up too many extra copies of catalogue titles, but they know they can always sell their used copies of new releases. Of course, I don't know if Videoscan oounts units from places that buy to rent but if it does it could make a huge difference. To the studios, a sale is a sale.

Chris_TC

02-03-07, 02:53 PM

http://i84.photobucket.com/albums/k28/JBCricket/Feb3.jpg

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp?userid=99365312992879

Great find, thank you!

I think, this is the most complete data set we've seen so far.
And looking at it I wonder: where's the slaughter Blu-ray supporters have been talking about?

Jeff Lampert

02-03-07, 02:56 PM

So are the websites like Digital Bits going to jump on this and start a whirlwind of rumors favoring HD-DVD ? Of course not...

You answered your own question.

Kosty

02-03-07, 02:59 PM

Lot of chickens being counted here.

The PS3 has just had its Xmas sales surge, HD A2s are just hitting the streets, ,there been a dearth of HD DVD releases, HD DVD PRG and Toshiba are just starting promotion and advertising and will don't know long term PS3 attach rates will sustain.

The trend is good for Blu-ray here in January sales , but its just been a short term phenomena.

err... its not even through the first month of three yet.....
Kosty, give it up already. You're embarrassing yourself trying to refute hard data.I think I got the answer!!...
....Short story: the first two weeks are useless.

:D :D :D

Sketcha

02-03-07, 03:00 PM

You answered your own question.

Sure did.

Sorry. Unlucky break.

Sketcha

02-03-07, 03:02 PM

:D :D :D
:D

How embarrassing for you. ;)

Grubert

02-03-07, 03:03 PM

Is there a possibility the third week's data included a cumulative catchup to include combos?

I think that is certain. Otherwise the HD DVD PRG would be down their throats. ;)

Just for fun, here are some plausible figures (including combos of course), which of course are my own speculation:

Scenario 1
HD DVD sales during 2006: 1,600,000
BD sales during 2006: 1,200,000

HD DVD sales Jan 1-21: 100,968
BD sales Jan 1-21: 199,896

HD DVD sales since inception: 1,700,968
BD sales since inception: 1,399,896

Scenario 2
HD DVD sales during 2006: 1,600,000
BD sales during 2006: 1,000,000

HD DVD sales Jan 1-21: 273,185
BD sales Jan 1-21: 542,185

HD DVD sales since inception: 1,873,185
BD salse since inception: 1,542,185

nataraj

02-03-07, 03:38 PM

I think it's clear that the SI numbers do include combos.
...
That's my guess, anyway. Wouldn't want to go on record as fact when Nielsen has made such a bluder already.

Some serious packpedalling there .... :p

Sketcha

02-03-07, 03:40 PM

Some serious packpedalling there .... :p
No $hit, huh? :D

Once bitten...

nataraj

02-03-07, 03:41 PM

I think that is certain. Otherwise the HD DVD PRG would be down their throats. ;)

It all depends on how NPD collected their data months back. If they didn't get combo data ... they don't have it to report irrespective of who is or isn't down their throat.

xbdestroya

02-03-07, 03:46 PM

Great find, thank you!

I think, this is the most complete data set we've seen so far.
And looking at it I wonder: where's the slaughter Blu-ray supporters have been talking about?

I don't mean to be picky, but those numbers indicate a clear-cut reversal in BD's favor after the PS3 launch. I'm not one to cite 'slaughters' in either direction, but if you wanted me to show you evidence of such, I would actually provide you with exactly the chart you seem to think shows nothing at all.

I think I got the answer!!

In their latest data entry, next to "HD DVD" there is an asterisk, which refers to a note saying: "Includes HD DVD Combo". The sales info for weeks ending Jan 7 and Jan 14 did not include it.

Hence, it might be construed that the first two data points published did not consider combos as HD DVDs, which made HD DVD look worse than it should. Probably some industry agent contacted Nielsen to correct their data.

More circumstantial evidence is comparing the chart of best-selling titles on HMM and davisdvd (thanks to darin for pointing this out). Superman Returns appears on davisdvd's list but not on HMM.

Short story: the first two weeks are useless.

Grubert - yes, awesome. Thank you for this insight; if it holds up week three --> week four, it'll be the answer we needed.

You're right, basically from here on out - if this is indeed the case - weeks 1 & 2 get tossed and we take it from week 3 onwards.

Sketcha

02-03-07, 03:50 PM

dpags

02-03-07, 03:55 PM

Great find, thank you!

I think, this is the most complete data set we've seen so far.
And looking at it I wonder: where's the slaughter Blu-ray supporters have been talking about?

Take a look at the February number now. Keep in mind that this is updated daily and only counts shipped and charged discs, not preorders. And you know what Friday's are at DVDEmpire? Preorder ship out days.

http://i175.photobucket.com/albums/w145/columbine420/Captured.jpg

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp?userid=99365312992879

b2bonez

02-03-07, 03:56 PM

It all depends on how NPD collected their data months back. If they didn't get combo data ... they don't have it to report irrespective of who is or isn't down their throat.
Wrong company... Nielsen/VideoScan is doing the disc numbers, not NPD.

b2b

Sketcha

02-03-07, 03:58 PM

Take a look at the February number now. Keep in mind that this is updated daily and only counts shipped and charged discs not preorders. And you know what Friday's are at DVDEmpire? Preorder ship out days.

http://i175.photobucket.com/albums/w145/columbine420/Captured.jpg

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp?userid=99365312992879
ZING! :D

Obviously the point that February is not over, nor the war, by a longshot, are both valid, but this is still a funny response to some recent posts.

xbdestroya

02-03-07, 04:08 PM

Also, if HD DVD is ahead for the 3 days of Feb by 10 points or so and for the entire week they are behind by 25 points, then for the last few days in Jan, BD must have out sold by what a 10:1 ratio?? But if that were the case, then the monthly sales ratio should have have narrowed (as they appear to have). oops. I am confusing myself again :)

Uh... yeah, you're confusing me to! ;)

Ok I was actually wrong though on the weeks corresponding to the "week ended," - they actually are the "week of." Not that it matters anyway since BD is ahead on the monthly now as well, but for the previous case we were analyzing, there is a lot of reason to think that normally in a week like Jan 30th, the first two days would see more activity than the next two (for these purposes in the same week, January vs February).

You see, I noticed that the weeks begin on Tuesday. This makes perfect sense for a DVD site, as Tuesday's are the days that new titles are officially released. For the week of the 30th, these new titles released on BD:

1/30 - Beerfest: Unrated
1/30 - Flyboys
1/30 - Hart's War
1/30 - Open Season
1/30 - Wicker Man, The: Unrated

So for BD to enjoy a huge sales spike on the site relative to HD DVD the first two days, yet have trailed off to basically even in sales by the next two, and cumulatively since the 30th still show a strong BD bias makes perfect sense.

Of course now I guess BD's bounded ahead as of today for the month anyway, but for the case before, I hope we can all recognize how February could be basically even, yet the week of the 30th still seperately favor BD.

TwinTurboZX

02-03-07, 06:05 PM

DVDEmpire.com as of Feb 3, 2007 3:00PM PT

----------Blu-ray HD-DVD
Feb. 2007 69.93% 30.07%

YTD 2007 57.79% 42.21%

OWNED by Blu!! :cool:

TwinTurboZX

02-03-07, 06:12 PM

http://i18.tinypic.com/40ketqd.jpg

kdragon

02-03-07, 06:21 PM

Grubert, thanks for clearing up the Videoscan mess about the third week's numbers!

So, our math was not wrong, the numbers were! :) I hope the first two week's numbers are updated accordingly so that we can go back to the business of finding out weekly sales! :)

kdragon

02-03-07, 06:28 PM

Originally Posted by kdragon
With 100:92.3 (assuming that 82.3 was a typo), it looks more reasonable! Not really. Why would Blu-ray sales go down by two thirds from one week to the next?

It seems obvious that there is an error in the posted numbers somewhere. But we don't know which of the numbers is incorrect. Maybe one of the previous weeks contained the error, who knows.

But really, I think it makes the most sense that the YTD ratio of the third week is incorrect and should be higher than 100 : 50.51.
Maybe it's 100 : 80.51 or something, that would probably get the numbers to match more easily.Well, I was just showing that reported numbers didn't match. 100:92.3 was for SI, by the way (down from 100:92.4 of previous week), just to get some plausible numbers by changing one variable. Obviously, there were infinite possibilities there! I was showing result of one such possibility.

Anyway, now that we all know the third week's numbers are calculated differently by Videoscan, so it's a hard reset! I must say, I did have some fun with these numbers! :)

eurotrance

02-03-07, 06:55 PM

JBCricket

02-03-07, 07:35 PM

Originally Posted by dpags
Take a look at the February number now.

Looks like Sally sold a couple of lemonades.

BuGsArEtAsTy

02-03-07, 08:37 PM

Considering the wild swings and the fact we're only 3 days into Feb., I think we can safely say the February DVD Empire numbers are useless.

However, the January numbers for DVD Empire can be looked at though. They are 1.3:1 BD:HD.

Kosty

02-03-07, 08:45 PM

Originally Posted by b.greenway
If Johnny sold 82% more lemonade over the summer than sally but sally only sold 2 lemonades to begin with...

Did Johnny sell enough lemonade to warrant this ridiculous notion that we're even close to deciding who'll win the format war?
LOL What? Johnny sold 3 lemonades at his stand and .64 lemonades over the Internet?

xboxboi

02-03-07, 08:46 PM

What? Johnny sold 3 lemonades at his stand and .64 lemonades over the Internet?

reminds me of my standard one teachers !

nataraj

02-03-07, 10:38 PM

I think the most alarming statistic is that everyone seems to shop at DVD Empire when Deep Discount is a couple bucks cheaper per title. ;)

No wonder more BD movies get sold there ... afterall that is the USP of BD. Less for more !! ;)

dialog_gvf

02-03-07, 11:53 PM

No wonder more BD movies get sold there ... afterall that is the USP of BD. Less for more !! ;)

Week over weeks were ~50-60% for BD in January starting from a SI of 40%/60% in favour of HD DVD for 2006. Seems those are WEAKER numbers for BD than Videoscan was reporting.

Gary

Spektricide

02-04-07, 01:50 AM

Thanks, Grubert!

Wow - talk about a huge screwup by Videoscan. Thanks to that little oversight, stories plastered all over the headlines are all just plain wrong.

They should issue acknowledgement of the mistake and a retraction!

There's no need for a retraction until we can actually substantiate that they did in fact omit the combo disk for the previous two weeks. You have the cart before the horse and if someone isn't paying attention, it would seem from your comment that this has already taken place, which it hasn't.

Chris_TC

02-04-07, 04:48 AM

I don't mean to be picky, but those numbers indicate a clear-cut reversal in BD's favor after the PS3 launch. I'm not one to cite 'slaughters' in either direction, but if you wanted me to show you evidence of such, I would actually provide you with exactly the chart you seem to think shows nothing at all.

2007 numbers currently show:
HD DVD -- 42.81% | Blu-ray -- 57.19%

This shows that there has been a sales surge for Blu-ray (something we knew about), but does this look like slaughter to you?

If the HD DVD percentage keeps falling over the next few weeks, while the Blu-ray percentage keeps raising, then you can call it a trend.
If the HD DVD percentage falls below 25% you can call it slaughter.

But until then, I call it a temporary high.

Eternal_Sunshine

02-04-07, 05:16 AM

plazman

02-04-07, 07:43 AM

So basically there's good and bad news for everyone: HD-DVDs numbers for 2007 are not quite so bad anymore (only outsold by 2:1), on the other hand there was no sudden spike in HD-DVD sales in week three.

Perhaps even the 2:1 may turn out to be wrong. Looks like whatever projection method they use, isn't perfect yet. I am curious to see if some studios are shipping more HD DVD to online channels v. the regular B&M v. SD DVD. I know this is a case for Warner. They are shipping to Amazon first and as a result many BB are getting their orders filled a couple of weeks (sometimes more) late.

So this can have an impact on Videoscan numbers since it looks like they 1. have a problem with counting HD DVD disks and 2. Their projection methods for SD DVD may not work for HD formats, since they are covering a smaller percentage of the market...

So, for me the bad news is that Videoscan may not really know what is going on :confused:

Sketcha

02-04-07, 11:37 AM

2007 numbers currently show:
HD DVD -- 42.81% | Blu-ray -- 57.19%

This shows that there has been a sales surge for Blu-ray (something we knew about), but does this look like slaughter to you?

If the HD DVD percentage keeps falling over the next few weeks, while the Blu-ray percentage keeps raising, then you can call it a trend.
If the HD DVD percentage falls below 25% you can call it slaughter.

But until then, I call it a temporary high.
I would say that a couple of months are required to weed out all the PS3 owners that just wanted to try out their fancy new machine and those who are just playing catch-up since BD so recently hit the market.

BD needs to show continued support like HD DVD has enjoyed.

I do suspect there will certainly be PS3 owners that are fair weather BD fans. However, the hope is that new PS3 owners will counteract said fair weathers. Future attach rate need not be quite in HD DVD's league, if sheer console volume prevails.

On top of all that, Videoscan sure has put themselves in a poor position as far as trustworthiness is concerned. So many here on both sides (see first few pages of this thread) gave them full respect as if their numbers were gospel. Their numbers will have to be consistent and calculable for quite awhile, now.

Sketcha

02-04-07, 11:38 AM

Sketcha

02-04-07, 11:44 AM

Kosty

02-04-07, 12:05 PM

Perhaps even the 2:1 may turn out to be wrong. Looks like whatever projection method they use, isn't perfect yet. I am curious to see if some studios are shipping more HD DVD to online channels v. the regular B&M v. SD DVD. I know this is a case for Warner. They are shipping to Amazon first and as a result many BB are getting their orders filled a couple of weeks (sometimes more) late.

So this can have an impact on Videoscan numbers since it looks like they 1. have a problem with counting HD DVD disks and 2. Their projection methods for SD DVD may not work for HD formats, since they are covering a smaller percentage of the market...

So, for me the bad news is that Videoscan may not really know what is going on :confused:People in the industry and the decison makers at Toshiba Sony Universal and Fox all probably know that the numbers are innacurate at this point because of all of the above reasons. For them there's probably a great deal of patience. They may use a temporary number trend as a PR piece, but they know better than to trust the numbers at this point.

The still trust industry sources like Nielson Videoscan and NPD in the long term, they just know their inherent limitations in this kind of situation.

Its the flock of chattering tribbles here, myself included, that are getting so excited over any scrap of data we can find. :)

Most studio and industry insiders know its just to early to tell.

dialog_gvf

02-04-07, 12:06 PM

I am curious to see if some studios are shipping more HD DVD to online channels v. the regular B&M v. SD DVD. I know this is a case for Warner. They are shipping to Amazon first and as a result many BB are getting their orders filled a couple of weeks (sometimes more) late.

Amazon has real numbers for pre-orders to base their actual order on. And actual sales that have to be fulfilled. So, it would make sense if Amazon got preferential shipments at this stage.

It also could be due to the frequent inability for B&M to honour the release dates on discs. So, the studios are waiting until release day to ship to them, causing a delay getting product on the shelves. Amazon, on the other hand, has computers controlling the product shipments to consumers.

I also think the B&M have such little space dedicated to the HD discs, that they are slow to add new stock until some of the older stock sells off.

Gary

Sketcha

02-04-07, 12:16 PM

I also think the B&M have such little space dedicated to the HD discs, that they are slow to add new stock until some of the older stock sells off.

Gary
There's one of the arguments for the end of the format war.

There could be twice as many titles on those shelves instead of 1 of each format (roughly.)

nataraj

02-04-07, 12:51 PM

There's no need for a retraction until we can actually substantiate that they did in fact omit the combo disk for the previous two weeks.

If they didn't show us possible numbers which will give you weekly sales. Start with any number you want for 2006 sales.

dialog_gvf

02-04-07, 12:51 PM

There's one of the arguments for the end of the format war.

There could be twice as many titles on those shelves instead of 1 of each format (roughly.)

That's Warner's logic behind Total HD. Except, unless they have a middle group for combos, it doesn't save much face oriented shelf space, since they'll have to put some of the discs in each section.

Gary

nataraj

02-04-07, 12:53 PM

So, for me the bad news is that Videoscan may not really know what is going on :confused:

It takes a long time to figure out good extrapolation formulas ... they can't just reuse DVD ones they have ....

thebland

02-04-07, 01:15 PM

AnthonyP

02-04-07, 01:38 PM

I think I got the answer!!

In their latest data entry, next to "HD DVD" there is an asterisk, which refers to a note saying: "Includes HD DVD Combo". The sales info for weeks ending Jan 7 and Jan 14 did not include it.

Hence, it might be construed that the first two data points published did not consider combos as HD DVDs, which made HD DVD look worse than it should. Probably some industry agent contacted Nielsen to correct their data.

More circumstantial evidence is comparing the chart of best-selling titles on HMM and davisdvd (thanks to darin for pointing this out). Superman Returns appears on davisdvd's list but not on HMM.

Short story: the first two weeks are useless.

Interesting idea, but somehow it does not sound right.

the SI changed way too much and the YTD did not. If the data was not right and there was a correction, I would guess there would have been something simillar for the YTD.

The issue is that it is obvious that Dec was when the surge happened (maybe late Nov).

Back in Aug/Sep HD DVD was outselling BD 3:1 (roughly).
From the HD DVDprg we get 175k+ sold, other indications show that around 100k HD DVD add-ons sold last year as well and then we have the 2G that only showed up in Dec (or was it late Nov).

Let's call p the amount of time it took to sell 10 BDs in Aug 2006
10 BDs then
3:1 -> 30 HD DVDs then
4:1 (a guess based on number of players then compared to Jan) -> 120HD DVDs now
2:1 (sales for BD vs HD DVD)-> 240 BDs now

so we get 360:40 or 9:1

I am guessing 9:1 is also extremely conservative (i.e. most likely bigger).

I can't see how it could influence SI so much and not YTD

skogan

02-04-07, 01:42 PM

I see the numbers as reliable.

Which numbers? Week 1 and 2, or week three? Because to the extent they are inconsistent, they aren't reliable. I mean, when you saw the week 1 and 2 numbers, didn't you assume that combo disc were included?

The trend is undeniable. Blu Ray has jumped ahead. Period

Blu-ray has Jumped ahead, no doubt. But for it to be a trend we need a few more weeks of data. BD's lead could be narrowing, growing, or staying the same. We don't know yet, so the trend is very much deniable, regardless of what one views the trend to be. If they have counted combo's every week, then HD DVD had the lead last week. IF they didn't, we don't know who led last week because we have no baseline to judge against.

nataraj

02-04-07, 02:13 PM

Blu-ray has Jumped ahead, no doubt. But for it to be a trend we need a few more weeks of data.

Probably a lot more ... how do we know this is not a repeat of UMD (PSP) story ?

Even 1 BD movie buy each by PS3 owners can seem like a jump ahead ... if they are not repeat buyers it will slowly cool down - what with slowed down PS3 sales ....

Maxpower1987

02-04-07, 02:31 PM

Probably a lot more ... how do we know this is not a repeat of UMD (PSP) story ?

Even 1 BD movie buy each by PS3 owners can seem like a jump ahead ... if they are not repeat buyers it will slowly cool down - what with slowed down PS3 sales ....

Because UMD was a poor product and generally a bad idea, Blu-ray is neither of these.

sknight1

02-04-07, 02:54 PM

The trend is undeniable. Blu Ray has jumped ahead. Period.

What is amazing is that over 30 pages of discussion has been generated over three data points. One can not have a "trend" with only three data points. There just isn't enough data yet to draw a conclusion for one format or the other.

dialog_gvf

02-04-07, 02:59 PM

What is amazing is that over 30 pages of discussion has been generated over three data points. One can not have a "trend" with only three data points. There just isn't enough data yet to draw a conclusion for one format or the other.

Trust the Amazon rankings? Look back before the PS/3 came out.
Trust the DVD Empire percentages? Look back at those stats.

Are we now saying that Videoscan is the sole authoritative data points?

Gary

Kosty

02-04-07, 03:01 PM

eurotrance

02-04-07, 03:09 PM

I see the numbers as reliable. Moreover, it is the best we'll ever get to the truth as they are from an unbiased, third party (no fanboys). These conspiracy theories and fuzzy logic as to why they aren't favoring what the majority of AVS members favor (HD DVD) are mind boggling.......but pure entertinment to read.

The trend is undeniable. Blu Ray has jumped ahead. Period.

Of course if they show a BD lead they are reliable, right ? On the other hand, if they don't then they must be wrong somehow... :rolleyes:

So let me ask you this : if Nielsen didn't include combos during the first 2 weeks of January, then it doesn't matter ? It's quite amusing you're accusing HD-DVD people of spinning the numbers when all things considered if the numbers didn't include combos during the 1st 2 weeks it's nothing more than a fluke that you're more than happy to use to declare the war is won...

Declaring a winner after 2 weeks in the year with wrong numbers is what I call "mind boggling". But hey, why not, after all, you wouldn't have it any other way, would you ?

sknight1

02-04-07, 03:11 PM

Trust the Amazon rankings? Look back before the PS/3 came out.
Trust the DVD Empire percentages? Look back at those stats.

Are we now saying that Videoscan is the sole authoritative data points?

Gary

Personally, I don't trust anybody's numbers. Point is there are just too many balls up in the air for anyone to reach a decision on the format war. In short:

Universal Studios - Combo format strategy.
Warner - TotalHD Strategy.
PS3 Juggernaught -- Just released (not even in Europe yet).
Chinese - When and how cheap.
Adult Movies - HD only or not, big factor or not.
Universal Players - More manufacturers and when.
Diodes - Manufacturing problems or not - when will they be corrected.

Until all of the above plays out then its anybody's guess -- and I do mean guess! :rolleyes:

Kosty

02-04-07, 03:20 PM

add to above the mass production of HD A2 and Xbox 360 HD DVD add ons

eurotrance

02-04-07, 03:21 PM

Personally, I don't trust anybody's numbers. Point is there are just too many balls up in the air for anyone to reach a decision on the format war. In short:

Universal Studios - Combo format strategy.
Warner - TotalHD Strategy.
PS3 Juggernaught -- Just released (not even in Europe yet).
Chinese - When and how cheap.
Adult Movies - HD only or not, big factor or not.
Universal Players - More manufacturers and when.
Diodes - Manufacturing problems or not - when will they be corrected.

Until all of the above plays out then its anybody's guess -- and I do mean guess! :rolleyes:

I agree completely, the only logical conclusion for now is that's it's too early to tell.

BTW, how many times does a war need to be won for it to be really over ? :rolleyes:

sknight1

02-04-07, 03:26 PM

I agree completely, the only logical conclusion for now is that's it's too early to tell.

BTW, how many times does a war need to be won for it to be really over ? :rolleyes:

Judging by this thread it must be at least 7 or 8! :D

wnorris

02-04-07, 03:31 PM

I also agree that the data for three weeks doesn't match.

Looking at other parameters (that is, HD-DVD should have had a good week), I think, it is the SI that is wrong. Anything smaller than 90.5 gives ridiculous numbers.

If I assume SI ratio of 100:91 (instead of reported 100:82.3) this is what I get:

WW HD % BD Weekly HD Weekly BD YTD HD YTD: HYT
WW1 47.14 126,445.08 59,606.21 126,445.08 59,606.21
WW2 38.36 161,679.71 50,918.46 288,124.80 110,524.67
WW3 50.51 1,992.16 36,013.40 290,116.96 146,538.08

Go lower, and the BD weekly sales towards -ve (as nataraj's calc). (third column).

With 100:92.3 (assuming that 82.3 was a typo), it looks more reasonable! :)
Actually, we see a nice jump in HD-DVD number as expected:

WW HD % BD Weekly HD Weekly BD YTD HD YTD: HYT
WW1 47.14 126,445.08 59,606.21 126,445.08 59,606.21
WW2 38.36 161,679.71 50,918.46 288,124.80 110,524.67
WW3 50.51 57,515.00 64,057.99 345,639.80 174,582.66

Bottom line is that the reported numbers don't match up.

PS: I used same assumption as others: 1.5M HD-DVD, 1.2M BD.

Another thing to consider, if you think there was an error in the data, is that the YTD total was reported incorrectly. If you assume that the YTD was actually closer for HD-DVD, then you get data where the number of BD sales remain close to the week 1 and week 2 numbers, but you get a really big jump (2-3X) for HD-DVD.

So is it likely that BD numbers dropped drastically, even though there were several new releases? Or is it more likely that HD-DVD sales increased drastically, because of several popular new releases?

wnorris

02-04-07, 03:52 PM

Spektricide

02-04-07, 03:57 PM

If they didn't show us possible numbers which will give you weekly sales. Start with any number you want for 2006 sales.

Could you clarify your statement?

wnorris

02-04-07, 04:04 PM

So basically there's good and bad news for everyone: HD-DVDs numbers for 2007 are not quite so bad anymore (only outsold by 2:1), on the other hand there was no sudden spike in HD-DVD sales in week three.

I wouldn't go as far as to say that. If Videoscan has been omitting combo discs, then the SI and YTD numbers are probably both wrong. It would mean combos were being omitted since the inception of HD-DVD. It's unlikely they would go back and try to correct numbers dating all the way back into March of 2006. Most likely that data is lost and can never be recaptured. If they tried, it would also mean correcting the DVD numbers as well (you can't count the disc twice).

It would also mean any 2:1 ratio would be totally invalid, as only a portion of HD-DVD discs were counted. It would ensure that the ratio is actually less than 2:1 (and could even be in HD-DVD's favor).

plazman

02-04-07, 04:08 PM

I wouldn't go as far as to say that. If Videoscan has been omitting combo discs, then the SI and YTD numbers are probably both wrong. It would mean combos were being omitted since the inception of HD-DVD. It's unlikely they would go back and try to correct numbers dating all the way back into March of 2006. Most likely that data is lost and can never be recaptured. If they tried, it would also mean correcting the DVD numbers as well (you can't count the f disc twice).

There is no indication that Videscan went back and retroactively fixed their numbers.

skogan

02-04-07, 04:23 PM

It's unlikely they would go back and try to correct numbers dating all the way back into March of 2006. Most likely that data is lost and can never be recaptured.

Actually, I bet it wouldn't be that hard at all. Just move the sku's of a few movies from one column to another and rerun the tally. I mean, it's not like they were tabulating these things by hand on a napkin. I would guess they could manipulate which SKU's to include in the count fairly easily.

skogan

02-04-07, 04:25 PM

There is no indication that Videscan went back and retroactively fixed their numbers.

Procedurally, it was probably no more difficult to go back and refigure the stats to include combo's in the YTD than it was for the SI. I don't know why they would do it on one and not the other.

Grubert

02-04-07, 04:29 PM

There is no indication that Videscan went back and retroactively fixed their numbers.

Yes there is. If they merely had corrected the data to include combos for 2007 going forward, it would have shown as a sharp increase. The fact that it was impossible to align the data from W3 with W1-2 proves that the 2006 numbers have also been altered.

webphilosopher

02-04-07, 05:04 PM

It will be really amusing when some blu statisticians only count their side of the Warner THDs.

BuGsArEtAsTy

02-04-07, 05:31 PM

All this shows that the hi-def disc sales are still quite small.

wnorris

02-04-07, 07:32 PM

Yes there is. If they merely had corrected the data to include combos for 2007 going forward, it would have shown as a sharp increase. The fact that it was impossible to align the data from W3 with W1-2 proves that the 2006 numbers have also been altered.

Actually, it doesn't prove that any correction to 2006 was performed. I'm sure you would like to think it did, but there is ZERO proof just from looking at week 3 numbers. To make the numbers align mathematically, you must depend on YTD numbers as well. A realignment of YTD, SI, or both would result in it being impossible to align the numbers.

There is ZERO proof for that matter that they weren't counting combos (surely they weren't stupid enough to overlook them). For all we know, the mag (or Nielson) got several questions about whether their numbers included combos. So they added the asterick so people would know.

Unless they issue a release saying they omitted the combo numbers, it is only a guess that they did.

plazman

02-04-07, 07:43 PM

Yes there is. If they merely had corrected the data to include combos for 2007 going forward, it would have shown as a sharp increase. The fact that it was impossible to align the data from W3 with W1-2 proves that the 2006 numbers have also been altered.

You know this for fact, or are you just guessing?

The SI records should also include 2006. So did they fix 2006 so that the Jan 1 numbers are right?

Sean_O

02-05-07, 01:13 AM

I see nothing wrong with suggesting that Videoscan post actual numbers sold for each title on each format. I would like to see exactly how they arrive at their conclusions, and it would also paint a more realistic picture of demand across both platforms.

If a movie is available cross-platform, I want to see the sales numbers for each version. What I am not interested in at this time are the less insightful cumulative figures which include sales of movies that are not even available on one platform or another.

HD DVD gets a big exclusive release or two and that will skew the numbers in favor of HD DVD sales. Blu Ray gets a big exclusive release or two and it skews the numbers in favor of Blu Ray sales.

It does not answer the question of which side is truly buying more software with all things being equal if you can not see the individual sales totals for titles available on both HD DVD and Blu Ray.

This is what I hope to see uncovered in the near future.

darinp2

02-05-07, 03:41 AM

I'm quoting the article from the magazine.Where does the article say that it was 20 for Blu-ray vs 11 for HD DVD? If it was referring to the time that the data up until the 14th was relevant to then I would say it was wrong. If it was referring to January, then of course it would be incorrect for you to use that ratio as a basis for the ratio of titles for a different period (like up until the 14th).

--Darin

Grubert

02-05-07, 04:50 AM

You know this for fact, or are you just guessing?

Occam's razor: when multiple competing theories are equal in other respects, we should select the theory that introduces the fewest assumptions and postulates the fewest hypothetical entities.

Kosty

02-05-07, 06:30 AM

Occam's razor: when multiple competing theories are equal in other respects, we should select the theory that introduces the fewest assumptions and postulates the fewest hypothetical entities. I'm with Grubert on this one.

At the moment that seems to be the most likely scenario.

Grubert

02-05-07, 07:48 AM

I've sent an email to HMM asking for clarification and corrected figures if appropriate. I'll keep you posted.

plazman

02-05-07, 08:03 AM

I believe you are assuming more when you say that VIDEOSCAN has now retroactively corected for the sales of combo since the inception of the format and hence the revised week 3 numbers.

While, your rule of thumb is fine. I am seeing several media sources, perhaps due to pressure of some sort, make errors in their calculation, in one direction only. Or not report numbers at all when it favors one side. Now isn't that a little strange - may I ask?

Grubert

02-05-07, 08:16 AM

That they are retroactively allotting HD DVD more sales than they displayed on the first two weeks is a fact.

The fact that the tinkering appears simultaneously with a new footnote to the graph makes me consider that new information on the sample used to be relevant to the change in the statistics.

Of course, we know that correlation does not imply causality - ie that one must not assume that because two things happen at the same time, one is because of the other. But, in the absence of other credible explanation, that is our working hypothesis.

You don't complain when they do that on CSI, do you? ;)

joshd2012

02-05-07, 08:49 AM

skogan

02-05-07, 08:56 AM

Wet1

02-05-07, 09:05 AM

Up until Jan. 1, I was ready to buy a HD DVD player as I thought that was going to be the winning format. Then I saw the CES press releasing saying BR would be getting much more studio support for 2007 than HD DVD would so I held off buying the HD DVD player. I was also concerned about the PS3 factor. Now I see these (excellent) new weekly sales stats being posted which support my suspicions that BR will pull ahead since the players are now getting to the market and the studios are now giving BR more support.

The writing on the wall looks pretty clear to me at this point. I'm not crazy about buying a gaming system to watch movies on, but I at this point I will buy a PS3 if there is a price drop in the near future. If nothing else I'll use the PS3 until cheaper dedicated DR players hit the market and then sell the PS3 on ebay.

joshd2012

02-05-07, 09:21 AM

That's my take on it. But more importantly, (to me) if they really did re-adjust the numbers to include combos, then it means that HD DVD did not necessarily sale more in week 3. Now, all we have is a 2:1 split, which may well be a consistent trend.

Ok. I was just checking my head since its early Monday morning. :D

wnorris

02-05-07, 09:25 AM

mod

post edited: third one

If you cannot be cordial, then please don't post

Then why don't you contact the other poster and ask them to stop following me around every thread, disputing what I say and asking for proof. It is getting really tiring.

skogan

02-05-07, 09:28 AM

But would you agree that Grubert has the best hypothesis for why this happened? It certainly isn't proven to a metaphysical certitude, but it's a more likely explanation than any known competing hypothesis.

wnorris

02-05-07, 09:32 AM

Ok, so now that we have better data for the week of January 21, we can still say 2 things:

1) Since Inception (SI) HD DVD has more discs sold than Blu-ray (BD: 45% HD: 55%)
2) Year to Date (YTD) Blu-ray has sold more discs than HD DVD (BD: 66% HD: 33%)

Is this still the general understanding?

I think you can say:

1) Since Inception (SI) HD DVD has more discs sold than Blu-ray. The statement is correct. However, the percentages may be correct, or they may be wrong if there was an error that resulted in combo discs being omitted. If there was an error, we don't know how far back any correction has gone (did they just correct 2007, or did they do 2006 as well), or if it even has been corrected. Right now, no one knows enough to say for sure about the percentages. But the initial statement would be correct.

2) I don't think we can make this statement quite yet. We know that the current numbers don't seem to correspond. If the error was entirely with SI, and was retroactively corrected for 2007, then yes, your statement would be true. However, there is a possibility that the SI number is correct, and that there was an error with the YTD number. If the error was with the YTD number, then it would need to be closer to a 50/50 split for numbers to start working out reasonably. Until we know the nature of the change/error, your #2 statement may, or may not, be correct.

skogan

02-05-07, 09:34 AM

mod

post edited: third one

If you cannot be cordial, then please don't post

There wasn't anything against the forum rules in the post you deleted. There was nothing even rude in it. Please include your name when you delete so that I may know who to complain about to the sites owners.

wnorris

02-05-07, 09:40 AM

Where does the article say that it was 20 for Blu-ray vs 11 for HD DVD? If it was referring to the time that the data up until the 14th was relevant to then I would say it was wrong. If it was referring to January, then of course it would be incorrect for you to use that ratio as a basis for the ratio of titles for a different period (like up until the 14th).

--Darin

Please read the entire article that was linked to previously and the topic of discussion. If you still can't find that quote, which is clearly there, then there is nothing else I can do to help you.

Grubert

02-05-07, 09:43 AM

If there was an error, we don't know how far back any correction has gone (did they just correct 2007, or did they do 2006 as well)

Unlikely.

1. HD DVD shipped units in 2006 were 1.5M, which is an average of 180,000 units per month. Also, sales are likely to have been stronger more recently, thanks to the release of the HD DVD add-on. This is borne out by the graph on thedvdwars site. So, unit sales in 2007 are being of the order of 100,000 - 200,000 units a month, IOW 25,000 - 50,000 a week.

2. Most titles sold are not combos. Right now, on the amazon top 10, only one (Hollywoodland) is a combo. On the davisdvd site (taken from rentrak), two titles (Superman Returns and Miami Vice) are combos. So I say about 10% - 20% of total sales are combos.

1 + 2: Combo sales during first two weeks of the month have been 2,500 - 10,000 units.

Hence, a mere correction of the first two weeks of the month would have gone unnoticed and would have not caused such incompatibilities as we have now.

Hence, the correction must have been gone as far as 2006.

skogan

02-05-07, 10:20 AM

We also have to ask ourselves, why would they only change YTD and not SI? That wouldn't make any sense.

nataraj

02-05-07, 10:24 AM

Hence, a mere correction of the first two weeks of the month would have gone unnoticed and would have not caused such incompatibilities as we have now.

Difficult to say unless yo play around with the ratios ...

I think we need more clarification from videoscan ...

joshd2012

02-05-07, 10:36 AM

I agree with Grubert. Things look very clear to me. It will be interesting to see the updated numbers for 28 Jan.

skogan

02-05-07, 10:40 AM

I agree with Grubert. Things look very clear to me. It will be interesting to see the updated numbers for 28 Jan.

I wouldn't go so far as to say thing look "very clear." I don't even know if Grubert would say that. But I will say Grubert's explaination is the best explaination available, given what we now know. I provisionally accept his explaination, but I'm not completely confident in it.

Grubert

02-05-07, 10:48 AM

I wouldn't go so far as to say thing look "very clear." I don't even know if Grubert would say that.

Heck no. Sometimes you hear hooves and actually it's zebras. ;)

dialog_gvf

02-05-07, 11:14 AM

Hence, the correction must have been gone as far as 2006.

My calculation indicated about 18% of the SI was added. Adding all the combos SI would be consistent with that 18%.

Gary

Grubert

02-05-07, 04:48 PM

Stephanie Prange, editor in chief of HMM, has replied promptly to my email with the following answer:

The two previous charts did not include HD DVD combos. The charts going forward will. With combos included, the Blu-ray wins in the previous weeks would be a little less impressive. We cannot give out units. Blu-ray may win on an inception basis sometime this month, even with the combos included.

I have updated the initial post with the appropriate disclaimer.

Thanks to Ms Prange for her time and help.

patrick99

02-05-07, 04:52 PM

plazman

02-05-07, 05:10 PM

Stephanie Prange, editor in chief of HMM, has replied promptly to my email with the following answer:

I have updated the initial post with the appropriate disclaimer.

Thanks to Ms Prange for her time and help.

Excellent work Grubert! Could you ask her if Videoscan also includes Amazon?

FWIW: Take a look at her article on 'tech and content can be at odds' in the same issue. For those who are brave enough to venture beyond VideoScan :)

joshd2012

02-05-07, 05:13 PM

This really doesn't change the perception this numbers gave initially. HD DVD is leading in since inception sales slightly, and Blu-ray is leading (by a margin of 2:1) for sales this year. Thanks again Grubert for taking the lead on this info.

Sketcha

02-05-07, 05:18 PM

pcrx

02-05-07, 06:34 PM

LOL Put any of these numbers up against SD DVD sales and you would liekly see the reality that all of us are in the SUPER minority of buyers.

darinp2

02-05-07, 06:35 PM

Please read the entire article that was linked to previously and the topic of discussion. If you still can't find that quote, which is clearly there, then there is nothing else I can do to help you.I see it now. I was looking at the original article this thread mentioned. This newer one says:
However, so far this year, through Jan. 26, the Blu-ray suppliers have released almost double the number of HD DVD titles. There have been 20 Blu-ray releases to 11 for HD DVDSince the timeframe for the sales numbers and the timeframe for the releases aren't the same (and the magazine didn't even claim they were the same) it is misleading to say:
However, it was interesting that BD released about 2X as many titles (20 vs 11) to take a 67% market share YTD.If we use Grubert's list then through the 21st each format had released 7 titles, which would mean 67% market share for this year with the same number of releases for 2007 on both formats. On the 23rd there are 12 listed for Blu-ray and 4 for HD DVD. If there were 2 versions of Saw II as I remember it listing at one point or there is one title missing on the Blu-ray side, then that would bring the total to 20 to 11 by my count, but not for the timeframe that the 67% market share had been released for. If we get numbers for the week ending the 28th then it will include those releases.

BTW: I acknowledge that some people are lucky enough to get releases before their release dates, but those percentages should be small compared to overall sales and counting a Tuesday release as released on the previous Sunday would be misleading.

--Darin

skogan

02-05-07, 06:41 PM

JBCricket

02-05-07, 08:45 PM

Sony - Blu-ray discs have surpassed those for HD-DVD

February 5, 2007

Sony: PS3 Drives Blu-ray Sales, Format Beating HD-DVD

Spurred in part by the sale of 2 million PlayStation 3 consoles, Sony officials have claimed that, according to research data, cumulative sales of Blu-ray discs have surpassed those for HD-DVD for the first time.
According to Nielsen VideoScan, the consumer research firm for the VHS and DVD sell-through industry, in addition to an overall lead in sales to date, Blu-ray movies outsold those released for the HD-DVD format by more than a 2-to-1 margin during the first week of January. This equates to 47.14 HD DVD titles sold for every 100 Blu-ray titles.

The report also found that Blu-ray titles outsold HD-DVD releases by nearly a 3-to-1 margin during January's second week, with 38.36 HD-DVD titles sold for every 100 Blu-ray releases.

Sony officials also revealed that, according to an online survey of approximately 100,000 current PlayStation 3 owners conducted by the company, 90 percent have watched a Blu-ray movie on their console.

This high percentage is likely helped by the bundled Talladega Nights Blu-ray disc with the first 500,000 units of PlayStation 3. But even apart from that, 80 percent of those surveyed plan to purchase further Blu-ray movies, while 72 percent of respondents stated that they plan to rent a Blu-ray movie in the near future.

POSTED: 04.39PM PST, 02/05/07 - Jason Dobson

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=12660

SyHD

02-05-07, 09:29 PM

Whats is all this fuss about counting combo discs? Universal first combo disc was Brokeback Mountain which was released 1 week after the survey.

abr27440

02-05-07, 09:44 PM

Whats is all this fuss about counting combo discs? Universal first combo disc was Brokeback Mountain which was released 1 week after the survey.

first... of this year maybe. Face it there are plenty of combo disks in circulation so not counting them throws everything way off.

skogan

02-05-07, 09:47 PM

I have the Grinch who Stole Christmas on combi, which is nice because I my kids like to watch it at night. But it was a last years model.

Sketcha

02-05-07, 09:54 PM

Sony - Blu-ray discs have surpassed those for HD-DVD

Sony officials also revealed that, according to an online survey of approximately 100,000 current PlayStation 3 owners conducted by the company, 90 percent have watched a Blu-ray movie on their console.

This high percentage is likely helped by the bundled Talladega Nights Blu-ray disc with the first 500,000 units of PlayStation 3. But even apart from that, 80 percent of those surveyed plan to purchase further Blu-ray movies, while 72 percent of respondents stated that they plan to rent a Blu-ray movie in the near future.

Dang!

What I was most surprised by was the 80% will continue to purchase figure. And the 72% rentals?!!

So much for that "Well, how many of these PS3 owners even have an HDTV anyway? They won't care about BD."

Of course these "surveys" could easily be Sony propaganda.

Also, they are quoting Nielsen. Sony, of course have access to the fancy "pay-for" numbers that we all want so badly. I just hope Nielsen's got their shite together by now.

SyHD

02-05-07, 10:02 PM

first... of this year maybe. Face it there are plenty of combo disks in circulation so not counting them throws everything way off.

Are you being a little over dramatic? At most, there are around 10-15 combo titles out there and most of them are old and not selling very well. I checked Amazon Top 100 HD DVD titles and they have only 5 combo titles that was available at the time of the survey:

Jet Li's Fearless
Superman Returns
Lady in the Water
Army of Darkness
Slither
Dazed & Confused

Only the first two titles would have any dent on the sale figures. At most, combos would add 10% to HD DVD ...even that number is rather high.

raaj

02-05-07, 10:13 PM

Are you being a little over dramatic? At most, there are around 10-15 combo titles out there and most of them are old and not selling very well.

Care to list the titles and the numbers they sold so far?? I'm sure the list would be handy.

Humbert Humbert

02-05-07, 10:22 PM

When you sign up for an online user account over your PS3 you answer questions relating to blu-ray.

I know people with standard TVs who are buying blu-ray over DVDs, did it myself, after getting their PS3. It's simple, why buy a DVD you plan on keeping when you will just have to buy it again in high-def later? It only costs a few dollars more and is like a super-bit DVD with better sound which upgrades itself when you buy a better TV. Wouldn't be surprised if most of the PS3 blu-ray buyers still use a standard TV.

That is the security the console brought to the table. No matter what happens in this war, the playstation support is fixed. For the next five years at least I will have a PS3 so I can always play blu-ray discs. Beyond that the PS4 will be backward compatible with PS3, meaning it too will be able to play blu-ray movies. One can take the plunge without worrying whether they just bought a disc they won't be able to play a few years down the road. This also makes the PS3 the best blu-ray player on the market. Unlike the others, Sony must assure its compatibility for the future. Others models will come and go but this one must last for years.

Marwin

02-05-07, 11:01 PM

Here's confirmation that the numbers don't include the Talladega Nights bundled with the PS3:

A Nielsen VideoScan spokesperson confirmed to BetaNews this afternoon that her firm tracks point-of-sale data where the customer makes the exclusive decision to purchase discs. So the firm's data excludes bundle deals, such as copies of the Wil Farrell comedy Talladega Nights bundled with PS3s.

Source: http://www.betanews.com/article/PS3_Effect_May_Be_Boosting_Bluray_Movie_Sales/1170704837

dpags

02-05-07, 11:07 PM

How about confirmation that they don't include PS3 games and blank BD-R's? :D

AnthonyP

02-05-07, 11:45 PM

There is no indication that Videscan went back and retroactively fixed their numbers.

that theory came up because there was something funky in SI (way too low)

nataraj

02-05-07, 11:55 PM

Stephanie Prange, editor in chief of HMM, has replied promptly to my email with the following answer:

Can you email her and ask for re-computed numbers for the first two weeks ?

Otherwise we will start from 21st and take it from there as we get new data.

eurotrance

02-06-07, 12:07 AM

Whats is all this fuss about counting combo discs? Universal first combo disc was Brokeback Mountain which was released 1 week after the survey.

Kind of weird considering I own 12 combos. Also, there's no way to figure out how many combos would have been bought during the 1st two weeks of january by even looking at Amazon or DVD Empire sales. It might make a big difference or it might not, but either way it's misleading.

AnthonyP

02-06-07, 12:21 AM

Can you email her and ask for re-computed numbers for the first two weeks ?

Otherwise we will start from 21st and take it from there as we get new data.

that would be nice, but worst case we can use the first two weeks and then the next weeks (i.e. not together)

nataraj

02-06-07, 12:31 AM

that would be nice, but worst case we can use the first two weeks and then the next weeks (i.e. not together)

I was thinking, we just start with 21st as the first data point, and go from there.

AnthonyP

02-06-07, 01:01 AM

agree, what I meant was that once we have a couple of data points we can use it as suplemental. For example We can't compare 1 with 3 but we could compare 3 and 4 VS 1 and 2

abr27440

02-06-07, 01:31 AM

Are you being a little over dramatic?
No just correcting blatant misinformation. Don't try to justify the use of bad numbers, without combos they are meaningless.

Furthermore, if they are so inept to not count combos, who says they did not mess anything else up?

Grubert

02-06-07, 03:27 AM

Can you email her and ask for re-computed numbers for the first two weeks ?

Otherwise we will start from 21st and take it from there as we get new data.

I did ask her if VideoScan was going to resubmit the Jan 7 and Jan 14 data points corrected to include HD DVD combo sales, but that's not possible.

raaj

02-06-07, 08:09 AM

I did ask her if VideoScan was going to resubmit the Jan 7 and Jan 14 data points corrected to include HD DVD combo sales, but that's not possible.

Grubert, when and how often do these numbers come out? When can we expect to see the Jan 28th-Feb 4th numbers?

Grubert

02-06-07, 09:52 AM

Grubert, when and how often do these numbers come out? When can we expect to see the Jan 28th-Feb 4th numbers?

Once a week. HMM puts up the link to the magazine Mondays, but a modicum of URL extrapolation will get you the magazine on Friday.

mobius

02-06-07, 11:40 AM

At least one can't blame Universal and Warner for this. Appears the Sony delivered enough PS3 to control losses in their gaming division to an acceptable level, while ensuring that BD takes control of the format battle.

In my books 75% market share is the magic number at which the other format goes away. I believe one reason Warner could be waiting is to see if BD can indeed get upto the 75% mark by June.

It is also remarkable that dvdempire results were so in line with Videoscan. Perhaps, they ARE reporting videoscan results on their site. For the first and second weeks of Jan, the Videocan numbers reported by Grubert almost mirror dvdempire. It's also interesting that like Grubert's numbers, even dvd empire is using % share.

Anyway. I'd assume that the BDA will use it for their case, if these numbers are verifiable and true. Which I still don't know :confused:

IIRC DIVX was at about 10% market share before CC pulled the plug.

BuGsArEtAsTy

02-06-07, 12:07 PM

IIRC DIVX was at about 10% market share before CC pulled the plug.
Well yes and no. Some people bought DIVX players and ended up playing standard DVDs on them most of the time.

JBlacklow

02-06-07, 12:14 PM

IIRC DIVX was at about 10% market share before CC pulled the plug.I highly doubt that, since by the end of DIVX, monthly DVD player sales were almost as much as total DIVX sales.

Alan Gordon

02-06-07, 12:27 PM

Well yes and no. Some people bought DIVX players and ended up playing standard DVDs on them most of the time.

Exactly! In fact, I am very proud to say that I never saw a DIVX title in stores locally... though a couple of stores carried DVD during those early times...

~Alan

Azumi

02-06-07, 01:08 PM

I was thinking, we just start with 21st as the first data point, and go from there.

We?

Do not get offended Nataraj, but I feel a little awkward hearing this very suggestion from a person whose company has a vested interest in one of the formats.

I don't doubt your personal integrity, but for the sake of independence, please let Grubert decide on which data that may or may not be used.

skogan

02-06-07, 01:16 PM

We?

Do not get offended Nataraj, but I feel a little awkward hearing this very suggestion from a person whose company has a vested interest in one of the formats.

I don't doubt your personal integrity, but for the sake of independence, please let Grubert decide on which data that may or may not be used.

Don't be silly.

Each person can decide on their own which dates are relevant. You can structure your argument however you want. Use a date that's appropriate to the argument you're making, and your argument will be strong. Otherwise it will be unconvincing.

xbdestroya

02-06-07, 01:16 PM

I agree with Natarj on this (not all that frequent a thing! ;) ) and actually suggested the same earlier in the thread after I discovered this discrepency in the first place.

Fact is, it's only two weeks of data - who cares?

Week 3 to Week 4 will get us back on track towards understanding the trends. It will still have the year-to-date sold, the correct SI... everything we need to extrapolate from. Since the prior two months are corrupt, they serve us no purpose anyway.

awmurray

02-06-07, 02:26 PM

FYI, Amirm has responded to this in the insider thread (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9698795&&#post9698795)...

Chris_TC

02-06-07, 03:04 PM

Once a week. HMM puts up the link to the magazine Mondays, but a modicum of URL extrapolation will get you the magazine on Friday.

It's tuesday, so shouldn't there be numbers for week 4 already?

xbdestroya

02-06-07, 03:07 PM

It's tuesday, so shouldn't there be numbers for week 4 already?

This is the Tuesday following the Jan 21st numbers. The date you're looking for is still to come (this Friday through Monday).

Alan Gordon

02-06-07, 04:24 PM

With January 16th having the most amount of HD DVDs released this year so far, and Blu-Ray still ahead, does not bode well for the next week's numbers as the only HD DVD releases on the 23rd were "Brokeback Mountain" and "Black Rain", and Blu-Ray had 12 titles released including the best selling Blu-Ray title yet ("Saw III").

It's going to be painful seeing those numbers next week.

~Alan

raaj

02-06-07, 04:28 PM

ack_bk

02-06-07, 05:21 PM

I say cut the pointless speculation and jubilation cr@p every week looking at short term fluctuations.. lock this thread, and open up every 3 months to take stock.

30+ pages debating basically a worthless goofup is a total waste of time !!

Sounds good to me.. Although I do find it pretty amusing when a winner is declared everytime there is a 10% fluctuation at the defacto DVD Empire...

I cannot believe that people get this worked up over this stuff..

joshd2012

02-06-07, 05:56 PM

FYI, Amirm has responded to this in the insider thread (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9698795&&#post9698795)...

What did anyone expect him to say? He's on the losing side of this. Of course he is going to discount this as much as possible (which is why it took him so long to come back with an answer).

skogan

02-06-07, 06:14 PM

What did anyone expect him to say? He's on the losing side of this. Of course he is going to discount this as much as possible (which is why it took him so long to come back with an answer).

The question was answered less than an hour after it was asked, hardly a long time.

awmurray

02-06-07, 07:27 PM

What did anyone expect him to say? He's on the losing side of this. Of course he is going to discount this as much as possible (which is why it took him so long to come back with an answer).

Maybe we should wait until we get at least two valid data points? Even then it'll take a while to establish a trend. Hopefully there are no more surprises with their "data gathering" techniques.

grant7311

02-06-07, 08:13 PM

Here is more comments on the numbers that are being released for HD DVD and Blu-Ray. I can see why people are confused after reading reports on HD sales.

http://tech.blorge.com/Structure:%20/2007/02/06/hd-dvd-v-blu-ray-someone-is-winning-nobody-has-the-faintest-idea-who/

For those of you who don't want to go to the site here is the article.

HD DVD v Blu-ray — someone is winning. Nobody has the faintest idea who
Posted on February 6th, 2007 by Gareth Powell
Not for me to start a row with Google. They are bigger than me and have more money. But the heading Hardware Blu-ray Sales Surpass HD DVD Nearly Threefold is, to say the least, somewhat misleading. Or, if you prefer, a load of bollocks.

Luckily, the computer — Google swears there is no human intervention but it may be telling little porkies — later changed it to Fight for DVD Supremacy Heats Up which is much more accurate.

Again, strangely — the computer made me do it officer, honest — most of the sources listed internationally were Australian and, no, I am not in Australia nor using the Australian news site.

So Google News needs to lift its game.

What we have are figures released by Nielsen VideoScan to Home Media Magazine that Blu-ray movies are quickly gaining ground on HD DVD.

Let us stop there and consider the sentence. If they are quickly gaining ground then they are behind. Then comes the next sentence: the sales numbers show that Blu-ray Discs have been outselling HD DVDs by a strong margin thus far in 2007.

Which is followed by marketing analysis gobbledy-gook. Try following the logic, please.

During the first week of 2007, sales of Blu-ray more than doubled that of HD DVDs, with the latter making up only 46.14 percent of sales compared to the former.

Hold hard, my good fellow, simple maths tells us if you sell 46.24 percent and Blu-Ray doubled it then Blu-Ray sold 92.58 percent which means that altogether the sales were about 150 percent which is not totally logical. In fact, quite daft.

So let us look at some possible reasons. Obviously, the launch of the PlayStation 3, which has a Blu-ray Disc drive would have pushed sales. Because separate HD DVD players sold a lot less than the PlayStation 3. Say 175,000 HD DVD players.

But the PlayStation is for playing games. Of course, there are bugger-all games available as yet, so you need something to stick in this expensive machine and a movie will do.

Mark you, HD DVD has very little unless you could accept Batman Begins — top selling title with a picture used to illustrate this article — as intelligent viewing which I am not willing so to do.

The report allows HD DVD still holds the majority of total HD movies sold with Blu-ray is galloping up on the inside but still has not quite made it. Which makes a total nonsense of the original headline. It is pure iambic nonsense.

A saner moment, away from figures which make no sense at all, comes from the Global Optical Storage Industry Report, published December 2006. It says that HD DVD will still be the mainstream in the market during 2007 to 2009. After that it gives the edge to Blu-ray.

The problem is there is very little dependable Blu-Ray manufacturing and testing equipment around. Think of HD DVD as being a logical extension of what had gone before. Blu-Ray as a leap into technological advancement. Is it the bridge too far? I dunno. But some of the daft reports based on very iffy sales figures do not help to come up with an informed view. Google News should be ashamed of itself. The computer than runs it should be made to stand in corner until lunch break.

JBlacklow

02-06-07, 08:16 PM

skogan

02-06-07, 08:17 PM

That guy has no idea what he's talking about, and based on his calculations, he failed reading comprehension and basic algebra.

Yeah. I hope he isn't getting paid for that.

nataraj

02-06-07, 08:33 PM

Do not get offended Nataraj, but I feel a little awkward hearing this very suggestion from a person whose company has a vested interest in one of the formats.

I do feel awkward talking to someone anonymous. Can you post your real name (if that is not Azumi) and where you work ?

I don't doubt your personal integrity ....

Thanks for that. I'm sure my math will not be biased (go back to see I was one of the first to point out that numbers which showed upswing for HD DVD were incorrect) - just like Grubert's won't be.

skogan

02-06-07, 08:42 PM

I do feel awkward talking to someone anonymous. Can you post your real name (if that is not Azumi) and where you work ?

Thanks for that. I'm sure my math will not be biased (go back to see I was one of the first to point out that numbers which showed upswing for HD DVD were incorrect) - just like Grubert's won't be.

I never realized how much flak one gets simply for being an employee of Microsoft. I bet even the janitors there get it from other janitors in their union. They probably are watched extra closely and aren't allowed to chair any of the janitor's union activities. People accusing them of working an angle. Suspicion swirls around anything MS related.

But at least you're not an attorney :)

nataraj

02-06-07, 08:47 PM

I never realized how much flak one gets simply for being an employee of Microsoft. I bet even the janitors there get it from other janitors in their union. They probably are watched extra closely and aren't allowed to chair any of the janitor's union activities. People accusing them of working an angle. Suspicion swirls around anything MS related.

Yep. Except ofcourse in Seattle - most of the people I meet are jealous rather than accusatory.

But at least you're not an attorney :)

Wonder what happens to MS attorneys !!

darinp2

02-06-07, 08:48 PM

That guy has no idea what he's talking about, and based on his calculations, he failed reading comprehension and basic algebra.I know I'm stating the obvious for you, but just wanted to point out an example for people who haven't looked there:
"During the first week of 2007, sales of Blu-ray more than doubled that of HD DVDs, with the latter making up only 46.14 percent of sales compared to the former."

Hold hard, my good fellow, simple maths tells us if you sell 46.24 percent and Blu-Ray doubled it then Blu-Ray sold 92.58 percent which means that altogether the sales were about 150 percent which is not totally logical. In fact, quite daft.That is the problem when somebody does "simple math" and can't figure out what "compared to the former" means. :)

--Darin