I know I'm stating the obvious for you, but just wanted to point out an example for people who haven't looked there:
That is the problem when somebody does "simple math" and can't figure out what "compared to the former" means. :)

--Darin
Hard to believe someone can get paid doing such a lousy job!

[PS: Probably, I should take it back. It's a blog site, so apparently, they are not paid! :)]

Yep. Except ofcourse in Seattle - most of the people I meet are jealous rather than accusatory.



Wonder what happens to MS attorneys !!

They get to spend a lot of time in Iowa in the dead of winter defending against another class-action anti-trust suit... ;)

http://iowaconsumercase.org/index.html

b2b

[B]...But the heading Hardware Blu-ray Sales Surpass HD DVD Nearly Threefold is, to say the least, somewhat misleading. Or, if you prefer, a load of bollocks.

Luckily, the computer — Google swears there is no human intervention but it may be telling little porkies — later changed it to Fight for DVD Supremacy Heats Up which is much more accurate. Why does he quote a heading stating Blu-ray HARDWARE sales surpass HD DVD 8:1 (must be including PS3 sales) to start off his rant and then immediately switch to discussing SOFTWARE sales? You'd think a tech writer would know the difference.


Excerpt from TECH.BLORGE.com:

Gareth Powell has been a publisher and a journalist all of his life. In computers he has been the computer editor of the Sydney Morning Herald and the Hong Kong Standard. He has published several magazines on computers and was the first publisher of a magazine in Australia dedicated to the Apple II. He now writes five blogs on China, is working on a television series, writes and pubishes books and lives in England, Asia and Australia. He has no educational background worth writing about and comes from a long line of Welsh miners.

Emphasis added by me (maybe he's the typical HD DVD owner). :p

In the meantime, here are the top sellers for the week ending January 28, 2007, courtesy of davisdvd and provided by Rentrak's Home Video Essentials.

Blu-ray
1 (-) Saw III
2 (-) The Guardian
3 (-) Saw II
4 (2) Crank
5 (-) Alien vs. Predator
6 (3) Employee of the Month
7 (1) Gridiron Gang
8 (4) Underworld: Evolution
9 (9) The Fifth Element
10 (5) Resident Evil Apocalypse

HD DVD
1 (1) Clerks II
2 (5) Batman Begins
3 (3) Lucky Number Slevin
4 (10) V For Vendetta
5 (4) Casino
6 (6) Superman Returns
7 (2) The Mummy Returns
8 (9) The Last Samurai
9 (7) Poseidon
10 (-) Miami Vice

The question was answered less than an hour after it was asked, hardly a long time.

The question was continually asked about the Neilsen data, and this news bit from Sony was based on that data. He chose to ignore the Neilsen data until Sony took a stance, at which point, he continued to ignore the data. Why wouldn't he have given the same answer when it was brought up initially? Probably because he knew that by responding to it, he was accepting it, and didn't want to do so until someone else did.

I do feel awkward talking to someone anonymous. Can you post your real name (if that is not Azumi) and where you work ?


My real name is Giuseppe Salza, I live in France, and I work for a small company. Although we do some work in the entertainment area, we don't have any financial connection with any film/video company, nor with hardware manufacturers.

Everything I ever posted here is my personal opinion only. I paid my PS3 with my money, and I pay the BD I buy like everyone else.

I should probably add that I use Macs, although in the past I have owned some 10 PCs with almost every flavor of Windows from 3.11 to XP SP2. You shouldn't label me as a MS-hater -- although I certainly complain that Microsoft Money and the Windows Media DRMs haven't been ported to Apple yet.

Azumi is the name of my cat.

Satisfied?


Thanks for that. I'm sure my math will not be biased (go back to see I was one of the first to point out that numbers which showed upswing for HD DVD were incorrect) - just like Grubert's won't be.

I never said that you or your math are biased. I merely pointed out that the stance of your employer puts you in a awkward position. That said, after reading your reply, I can understand that you reacted on your honor. So I have no problems in believing your words.

So I have no problems in believing your words.

Thanks.

Some additional numbers (SCEA = Sony Computer Entertainment America):

"In response to an inquiry from Next-Gen, SCEA states that cumulative Blu-ray unit sales stand at just over 439,000 units, while total HD-DVD sales are just under 438,000 units. Blu-ray currently stands as the number one new DVD format in unit and dollar sales, according to research firm NPD Group... SCEA recently said that Blu-ray titles outsold HD-DVD titles close to three-to-one during the second week of January.

According to Sony, the company currently lays claim to 40 percent of the the Blu-ray player market with the PS3 and the company's $1,000 BDP-S1 standalone player."

Full article at next-gen.biz (the system won't let me post the actual url, due to me being a new user).

Welcome jipedk, and thanks!

The article is this: http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4698&Itemid=2

SCEA states that cumulative Blu-ray unit sales stand at just over 439,000 unitsIs it clear that these are all movies and not games on BD for the PS3?

Edit, I see that they updated the news release:
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4698&Itemid=2
SCEA states that cumulative Blu-ray movie unit sales stand at just over 439,000 units in the US,

Do these figures pertain to standalone players -- minus the PS3 and the 360's HD DVD add-on?

Sorry if it's a silly question. I just wanted to make sure that we're indeed talking about players and not discs.

Do these figures pertain to standalone players -- minus the PS3 and the 360's HD DVD add-on?

Sorry if it's a silly question. I just wanted to make sure that we're indeed talking about players and not discs.

Not silly at all - with all the commotion of this past week, there is no such thing as stating the obvious.

But yes the article says "Blu-ray disc sales lead HD-DVD sales by only 1,000 units"

BTW, for those that don't frequent the HD DVD Software forum, there's a thread (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=801732) there trying to cast doubt on the Videoscan figures and also on the motives of Home Media Magazine, VideoScan, thedigitalbits and yours truly. :rolleyes:

Excerpt from TECH.BLORGE.com:

Gareth Powell has been a publisher and a journalist all of his life. In computers he has been the computer editor of the Sydney Morning Herald and the Hong Kong Standard. He has published several magazines on computers and was the first publisher of a magazine in Australia dedicated to the Apple II. He now writes five blogs on China, is working on a television series, writes and pubishes books and lives in England, Asia and Australia. He has no educational background worth writing about and comes from a long line of Welsh miners.

Emphasis added by me (maybe he's the typical HD DVD owner). :p

The problem with the rapid explosion of so called "news blogs" is that they aren't held accountable to any standards of being fair in their reporting or even close to accurate. They put up some inflammatory story and let it run for a week while it gets dugg all over the internet to other blogs and forums till eventually a decently respectable news source will pick it up and run it. The only problem is that most of the time the information is grossely inaccurate or it's a simplified version of the problem that get's recycled in a 30 sec news blurb. In the end, when they are wrong, they offer up the classic "Well, that was just my opinion. This is just a news blog and I report what I feel".

To sum it up, the reason he probably doesn't work at a magazine anymore is because they may have wanted him to actually research stories and write on facts instead of just printing random brain farts.

Math test

What 40% of total Blue Ray player market is sequal to the Sony PS3 and the Sony BDP-S1? What universe is that that the PS3 is only 40% of and the BDP-S1 is included?

With 2 millions PS3 Shipped

Xbox 360 HD DVD add on 92,000 units by end of December (NPD numbers).

SCEA recently said that Blu-ray titles outsold HD-DVD titles close to three-to-one during the second week of January. Notice they only gave mention to sales surpassing in the esecond week, which would imply HD DVD held steady in the first week.

BTW, for those that don't frequent the HD DVD Software forum, there's a thread there trying to cast doubt on the Videoscan figures and also on the motives of Home Media Magazine, VideoScan, thedigitalbits and yours truly. For the record, I don't doubt your desire for accuracy Grubert, nor the raw figures from Videoscan or NPD.

How they are used , like in a spinned story, or to mislead an uninformed reporter or to support Bill Hunt's gut feelings is another story.

The more facts we have the better off we are.

Just based on what I see in the stores it appears Blu-Ray is winning. For instance, Best Buy's stock of blu-ray movies has depleated and needs to be constantly re-stocked whereas HD-DVD areas have no more room on the shelves cause they simply aren't moving as fast.

Same situation at my local Wal-Mart as well...

Welcome jipedk, and thanks!

The article is this: http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4698&Itemid=2

So, that's why a good release week + adding in combos can causes a big jump relative to the SI. Neither format had sold 500K discs to some unspecified point in time.

It will be interesting to see what presistently top 50 DVD titles on Amazon like The Prestige (both formats) and Casino Royale (Blu-ray) will sell.

EDIT: Less than 500K seems rediculously low for HD DVD since launch. How does that jive with 175K players and a high attach rate?

Gary

I'm surprised those numbers aren't higher. I remember in October (?) when Toshiba came out and said 1.5M discs have been shipped. That leaves an awful lot on shelves and in the warehouse. Good find, none the less.

I'm surprised those numbers aren't higher. I remember in October (?) when Toshiba came out and said 1.5M discs have been shipped. That leaves an awful lot on shelves and in the warehouse. Good find, none the less.

True - that's one million less per format than what I was expecting.

True - that's one million less per format than what I was expecting. Its possible that apples and oranges are being counted.

That article is crazy. Some of it just can not be true. I'll expand in a moment.

True - that's one million less per format than what I was expecting.

Now here is a possibly difficult question to answer. Are we going to assume that the numbers delivered by Sony represent the same time frame as the Jan 28 stuff we are about to see on Nielsen (assuming Nielsen shows the change of the leader for that date)? I want to try and match the Nielsen percentages to actual numbers, if possible. Would this be reasonable, or am I asking too much?

"According to Sony, the company currently lays claim to 40 percent of the the Blu-ray player market with the PS3 and the company's $1,000 BDP-S1 standalone player."


The PS3 has sold a few million units. There is no way it represents only 40% of the Blu-ray player market.

"SCEA states that cumulative Blu-ray movie unit sales stand at just over 439,000 units in the US, while total HD-DVD sales are just under 438,000 units."

Interesting that those are U.S. numbers only. And didn't they say that 90% of PS3 buyers were buying a movie? If so, then there should be about 2 million BD sales.

Some additional numbers (SCEA = Sony Computer Entertainment America):

"In response to an inquiry from Next-Gen, SCEA states that cumulative Blu-ray unit sales stand at just over 439,000 units, while total HD-DVD sales are just under 438,000 units. Blu-ray currently stands as the number one new DVD format in unit and dollar sales, according to research firm NPD Group... SCEA recently said that Blu-ray titles outsold HD-DVD titles close to three-to-one during the second week of January.

According to Sony, the company currently lays claim to 40 percent of the the Blu-ray player market with the PS3 and the company's $1,000 BDP-S1 standalone player."

Full article at next-gen.biz (the system won't let me post the actual url, due to me being a new user).

Assuming those numbers are correctly quoted, it sounds to me like SCEA is just making up numbers in a drug induced stupor. How do they get 439000 Blu-ray units? If you include PS3, the numbers should be a couple of million, if you don't include PS3 you would get substanitally less than 100,000.

And what accounts for the other 60% of the Blu-ray market? Is there a secret player out there that is selling in the millions that I haven't heard about?

Sony gave out 500,000 free TN disc, and that is more than they sold for the format since inception? Odd.

Not silly at all - with all the commotion of this past week, there is no such thing as stating the obvious.

But yes the article says "Blu-ray disc sales lead HD-DVD sales by only 1,000 units"

BTW, for those that don't frequent the HD DVD Software forum, there's a thread (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=801732) there trying to cast doubt on the Videoscan figures and also on the motives of Home Media Magazine, VideoScan, thedigitalbits and yours truly. :rolleyes:

HMM, VideoScan, NPD - yes. You - No. Sorry to burst your bubble there ;)

"According to Sony, the company currently lays claim to 40 percent of the the Blu-ray player market with the PS3 and the company's $1,000 BDP-S1 standalone player."


The PS3 has sold a few million units. There is no way it represents only 40% of the Blu-ray player market.

Maybe Sony is estimating PS/3 sales to A/V purchasers?

I'm not sure how they'd do that, but it would explain the number.

Gary

Assuming those numbers are correctly quoted, it sounds to me like SCEA is just making up numbers in a drug induced stupor. How do they get 439000 Blu-ray units? If you include PS3, the numbers should be a couple of million, if you don't include PS3 you would get substanitally less than 100,000.


Those are software figures, not hardware.

cumulative Blu-ray movie unit sales stand at just over 439,000 units in the US, while total HD-DVD sales are just under 438,000 units

In none of the previously released NPD data did BD lead HD DVD SI. This 1,000 unit lead then should be published in this Friday's report. So at last we will be able to link up actual figures with percentages.

Maybe Sony is estimating PS/3 sales to A/V purchasers?

I'm not sure how they'd do that, but it would explain the number.

Gary


You mean like making up stuff :)

I think any reasonable, objective person (as opposed to zealots for either side) looking at all the recent sales reports can draw a couple of conclusions:

No one, not even the number crunchers working for the BDA and HD DVD groups, can be sure of the exact sale numbers with respect to hardware/discs for either format.

Whatever the numbers may actually be, they are so [almost comically] small at this point that IMO it is laughable for anyone to claim any of the following: 1) that one format or the other has taken any signficant lead at this point, 2) that the "writing is on the wall" in terms of the format war, or 3) that these miniscule numbers will cause any kind of drastic change in the strategy of either the BDA or the HD DVD group.

If anything, these numbers only show that BOTH formats so far are doing significantly worse than their respective backers would like. The so-called format "war" IMO is nothing more than a "skirmish" at this point.
This thing is far, far from over.

You mean like making up stuff :)

Sony could claim 1 million+ BD players and hence 95% of the BD market. Would that be preferable?

Still, it seems 40% of the standalone market to the Sony standalone wouldn't seem too unreasonable.

Gary

.....you mean the format war is not over yet? :rolleyes:

I think any reasonable, objective person (as opposed to zealots for either side) looking at all the recent sales reports can draw a couple of conclusions:

No one, not even the number crunchers working for the BDA and HD DVD groups, can be sure of the exact sale numbers with respect to hardware/discs for either format.

Whatever the numbers may actually be, they are so [almost comically] small at this point that IMO it is laughable for anyone to claim any of the following: 1) that one format or the other has taken any signficant lead at this point, 2) that the "writing is on the wall" in terms of the format war, or 3) that these miniscule numbers will cause any kind of drastic change in the strategy of either the BDA or the HD DVD group.

If anything, these numbers only show that BOTH formats so far are doing significantly worse than their respective backers would like. The so-called format "war" IMO is nothing more than a "skirmish" at this point.
This thing is far, far from over.

I'd say that is very fair. Which leads to two possibilities:

(1) HD content on disc is simply no where near as appealing as backers think.

(2) The format war is hurting things VERY BADLY. And any move to perpetuate it is moronic.

Gary

I'd say that was very fair. Which leads to possibilities:

(1) HD content on disc is simply no where near as appealing as backers think.

(2) The format war is hurting things VERY BADLY. And any move to perpetuate it is moronic.

Gary

Mostly for who? Who do you believe it hurts the most in the short term? Not the consumers, since we're getting more content overall at lower prices.

Sony could claim 1 million+ BD players and hence 95% of the BD market. Would that be preferable?

Still, it seems 40% of the standalone market to the Sony standalone wouldn't seem too unreasonable.
Hopefully next-gen will keep editing their news article to clarify this 40% question. I noticed (and edited my earlier post accordingly) that they changed the words to clarify that the almost half-million number meant Blu-ray MOVIES.

Keep reading (for updates/corrections/clarifications):
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4698&Itemid=2
According to Sony, the company currently lays claim to 40 percent of the the Blu-ray player market with the PS3 and the company's $1,000 BDP-S1 standalone player.

EDIT: Less than 500K seems rediculously low for HD DVD since launch. How does that jive with 175K players and a high attach rate?I don't personally believe those numbers are accurate for software sales. In the long run hopefully we will get some more data that lets us know whether they are or not. I believe that Warner by themselves have sold more than 438,000 copies of movies on HD DVD.

--Darin

Mostly for who? Who do you believe it hurts the most in the short term? Not the consumers, since we're getting more content overall at lower prices.

This is true. But, how long can the strategic moves be justified if they aren't resulting in an adoption rate that will lead to a clear profit?

Gary

Mostly for who? Who do you believe it hurts the most in the short term? Not the consumers, since we're getting more content overall at lower prices.

Economies of scale say that the more things produced, the cheaper they costs to produce. So, the more people who adopt HD, the cheaper everything should get. Both sides agree that the war is keeping consumers out, so ending the war means more sales which mean cheaper products. Of course, this is only true if the companies pass the savings to the consumer.

This is true. But, how long can the strategic moves be justified if they aren't resulting in an adoption rate that will lead to a clear profit?

Gary

I think of this as a boxing match. On one side you have a boxer going for the quick KO (BD) and on the other you have one trying to go the distance if needed and win on points (HD DVD).

If you know that your competitor is going for the quick KO, one strategy is to frustrate him by staying away and even absorbing some of the early blows. At some point, the boxer going for the quick KO will use up more and more of their energy and will lose their mental focus, since it becomes a fight he did not prepare for...

A good boxer will weigh all options and will employ that strategy based on both his and his competitors strengths and weaknesses.

Hence, my point that I have repeatedly made. That we are in the early stages of this format war. We could end up with a long fight...just because one side is using up energy faster and punching more in the initial rounds does not mean they will win the fight.

:)

Hence, my point that I have repeatedly made. That we are in the early stages of this format war. We could end up with a long fight...just because one side is using up energy faster and punching more in the initial rounds does not mean they will win the fight.

:)

I would like to agree with this analogy but it ignores the concept of "momentum". These things have a certain inertia about them, and the further ahead one side gets, the easier it is to get further ahead. More disc sales lead to greater studio support, which leads to more customers, which leads to more disc sales. Taking a lead in a format war doesn't wear one down so much as energize.

It's still early yet, but I think BD has gotten some momentum since the release of the PS3, and HD DVD needs to do something to reverse that. Now it's possilbe the the gradual decrease in pricing of HD DVD will help reverse it, but I think it would be better to have a big shock of one sort of another to help.

I don't personally believe those numbers are accurate for software sales. In the long run hopefully we will get some more data that lets us know whether they are or not. I believe that Warner by themselves have sold more than 438,000 copies of movies on HD DVD.

--Darin

Agree. If PS3 only grabs 40% of the bluray market and the disc sales is below 1 million, then this war is going to the second phase. It is ugly. PS3 is supposed to help bluray break into mass market. But with over 1 million sold and ample supply, the software sales still seems to be in the early adopter phase.

I guess HD DVD camp is betting on PS3 couldn't make bluray a main stream thing. If they are right, then the adoption curve will most likely follow the DVD history. Then the key is who could first bring the sub-$250 player.

HD DVD camp knew from the start they will have no chance in the above $500 level.

I think of this as a boxing match. On one side you have a boxer going for the quick KO (BD) and on the other you have one trying to go the distance if needed and win on points (HD DVD).

Maybe for software, but for hardware the opposite is true. If anything, HD DVD is/was going for the early knockout by releasing a $500 player from the get-go, and a $200 add-on. That appears to have failed them (generating no more sales than Blu-ray has with a player at twice the cost).

No one here has any real idea whether those Sony numbers are true or not but i wouldn't be surprised if the rough unit figures aren't too far off the mark, especially depending on when they were taken. Take the HD-DVD 1.5 million discs shipped claim. That was in mid november, before the Xbox add-on had shipped and just around the time when Paramount had touted they had the highest initial shipment of discs for MI:3 at 20,000 for BOTH formats.

Looking back at the HD-DVD releases prior to mid november and i can't see anything that would compare to a title of that scale apart from King Kong, Batman Begins and V For Vendetta. In fact, it wouldn't even surprise me if some of those 110 releases by then had sold in the very low thousands mark.

There's no doubting BD sales have picked up since the launch of the PS3 and to take a lead over HD-DVD in such a short space of time means it's the dominant factor. What numbers like those would imply though is that the PS3 attach rate is pretty small!

The HD-DVD side is complaining about the lack of new releases while the HD-DVD group put more emphasis on hardware at CES. At this point it really could be that it's all about attracting new customers. With average title sales being that low, maybe the likes of Warner and Universal (and i'm sure they know way more than we do) weren't overly concerned about flooding the market at this early stage. Paramount had one of the biggest sellers yet is barely even making an effort on both formats this year so far. New Line and Dreamworks haven't even bothered to enter the game yet. That must say something about software sales surely. I said before, the BDA has played it's ace in the PS3 and it has no choice but to concentrate and hype up the software aspect. It's hoping that the attach rate will grow for the PS3 with consumers wanting the big titles. At this stage, I'm not so sure that will work. It will certainly help but if HD-DVD can get cheap players out and attract consumers in at a point when it's not too late, it still has the ability to take over. This war is still in it's early days i think.

Rant over....

I think of this as a boxing match. On one side you have a boxer going for the quick KO (BD) and on the other you have one trying to go the distance if needed and win on points (HD DVD).

If you know that your competitor is going for the quick KO, one strategy is to frustrate him by staying away and even absorbing some of the early blows. At some point, the boxer going for the quick KO will use up more and more of their energy and will lose their mental focus, since it becomes a fight he did not prepare for...

A good boxer will weigh all options and will employ that strategy based on both his and his competitors strengths and weaknesses.

Hence, my point that I have repeatedly made. That we are in the early stages of this format war. We could end up with a long fight...just because one side is using up energy faster and punching more in the initial rounds does not mean they will win the fight.It sounds like you are describing HD DVD in that last part. At least in 2006. Universal started out releasing most of their top 5 box office draws from each of the last 4 years (4 out of 5 from the last 2 years and 3 out of 5 from the previous 2 years).

While I think a boxing analogy is interesting, staying away by not releasing a lot of titles isn't as likely to work here as a boxing match. In that sense this is more like a marathon where one side seems to have decided to start walking for a while. Or like a sled dog race where the lead dog decided to quit pulling hard. And that where the other side has more strong dogs and started the race at a less frantic pace.

--Darin

I would like to agree with this analogy but it ignores the concept of "momentum". These things have a certain inertia about them, and the further ahead one side gets, the easier it is to get further ahead. More disc sales lead to greater studio support, which leads to more customers, which leads to more disc sales. Taking a lead in a format war doesn't wear one down so much as energize.

It's still early yet, but I think BD has gotten some momentum since the release of the PS3, and HD DVD needs to do something to reverse that. Now it's possilbe the the gradual decrease in pricing of HD DVD will help reverse it, but I think it would be better to have a big shock of one sort of another to help. I think the HD DVD momentum changer is the launch of the HD A2 in mass quantities.

I did expect that to start affecting the oneline sales stats already. :o

If Toshiba ships and sells anywhere near 100,000 units per month, and then through in Xbox 360 add ons, that will start accelerating HD DVD movie sales.

...err cough...anyday now... ;)

So this puts average sales for titles on either format at what about 2500 copies?

I have to say thats pretty pathetic.

Even if you say that half of the titles are crap, and sold nothing, well the remaining half only sold 5000 copies per title on average.

WOW

Maybe for software, but for hardware the opposite is true. If anything, HD DVD is/was going for the early knockout by releasing a $500 player from the get-go, and a $200 add-on. That appears to have failed them (generating no more sales than Blu-ray has with a player at twice the cost).


You're going by that unsubstantiated NPD report? That was a BDA front job. But you knew that. Right? :D

I would say the HD DVD initial hardware strategy was to appeal to the HT fan and blunt the impact of the PS3. At this stage, it seems to have worked, because it looks like HD DVD will be around for a while now. And MSFT has largely overcome any negative impact that the PS3 would have had on their own game console sales.

If Toshiba ships and sells anywhere near 100,000 units per month, and then through in Xbox 360 add ons, that will start accelerating HD DVD movie sales.If after HD DVD couldn't even match DVD's sales for their first year they start obliterating the pace that DVD set in their 2nd year, then HD DVD will be in good shape. :)

--Darin

If anything, HD DVD is/was going for the early knockout by releasing a $500 player from the get-go, and a $200 add-on. That appears to have failed them (generating no more sales than Blu-ray has with a player at twice the cost).

If anything, HD DVD was looking for a tie in the early adopter's phase. It is bluray who was going for a early knockout via millions of PS3.

Also I am confused about twice the cost part. PS3 is $499-599 and there is no sub $250 HD DVD players.

If anything, HD DVD was looking for a tie in the early adopter's phase. It is bluray who was going for a early knockout via millions of PS3.

Also I am confused about twice the cost part. PS3 is $499-599 and there is no sub $250 HD DVD players.

At the time the HD-A1 was priced, the price of the PS3 was unknown. The $500 price point was set to be an early knockout (no company is going to play for a tie before they know they can't win). Once the PS3 was released, all that changed, but the early movement was already done.

It sounds like you are describing HD DVD in that last part. At least in 2006. Universal started out releasing most of their top 5 box office draws from each of the last 4 years (4 out of 5 from the last 2 years and 3 out of 5 from the previous 2 years).

While I think a boxing analogy is interesting, staying away by not releasing a lot of titles isn't as likely to work here as a boxing match. In that sense this is more like a marathon where one side seems to have decided to start walking for a while. Or like a sled dog race where the lead dog decided to quit pulling hard. And that where the other side has more strong dogs and started the race at a less frantic pace.

--Darin

This leads to the story of the 7 blind men who were asked to describe what an elephant looked like by touching only one part of the animal....each came up with a different description. While each decribed what they felt correctly, they all described the what an elephant really looked like wrong!

There was a time when the PSP was described as the ultimate convergence device. People wen't crazy with it's success in Japan and the short term sales trends in the US. If I remember correctly, it made it to Time Magazine and the Washington Post and NBA players were talking about it etc etc. a couple of years later and we find the Nintendo DS is outselling it and the PSP wasn't the killer device that everyone expected it to be...

As Americans we love to make bold statements and predictions based on very little data and short term trends. Sort of like, what is happening now will happen for ever. That is what causes bubbles and bubbles burst when reality hits....

Agree. If PS3 only grabs 40% of the bluray market and the disc sales is below 1 million, then this war is going to the second phase. It is ugly. PS3 is supposed to help bluray break into mass market. But with over 1 million sold and ample supply, the software sales still seems to be in the early adopter phase.

I guess HD DVD camp is betting on PS3 couldn't make bluray a main stream thing. If they are right, then the adoption curve will most likely follow the DVD history. Then the key is who could first bring the sub-$250 player.

HD DVD camp knew from the start they will have no chance in the above $500 level.

I think the most serious question for both the CE industry and the studios is to re-examine their research on what the general public is willing to pay for HD titles vs. what they have with DVD.

That is the essential question in the first place. HD is good, but good at what price ???

Is HD really good enough to pay 3x for HW (at minimum) and 2x for titles ??

b2b

i don't think HD-DVD was going for an early knockout at all. How can a model with such a low manufacturing output even be considered in that vein? I believe it was making itself an attractive prospect for early adopters and setting itself a stable base before the PS3 arrived, especially as it was common knowledge that the PS3 was the big egg in the BDA basket, irrespective of what it's price point was going to be. The HD-DVD strategy may have worked.

As Americans we love to make bold statements and predictions based on very little data and short term trends. Sort of like, what is happening now will happen for ever. That is what causes bubbles and bubbles burst when reality hits....
And none of us immune, are we Plaz? ;)

And none of us immune, are we Plaz? ;)

No. We are weaker than we would like to be or like to seem to be :)

The $500 price point was set to be an early knockout (no company is going to play for a tie before they know they can't win).

Here is the problem. Everybody knows there would be no knockout at >= $500 price point. It would be a niche/early adopter market. But BDA want PS3 to help bluray skip the early adopter phase and directly make bluray the de facto mass market standard by the huge volume. HD DVD camp is fighting for a tie in the early adopter's market and hope PS3 would not help bluray to became mainstream and then HD DVD will have a chance to drag the war into the second phase by first release the sub-$250 CE players. It's their game from the start. If HD DVD is behind too much in the early adopter market, it would be very hard for them to woo other studios even it is niche.

If we accepted the fact that the current HD DVD software sales is a niche or "pathetic", what would it indicate about bluray even at 3-5:1 advantage? I would be very worried if that is the best PS3 and 90% content support could bring to the table.

I think the HD DVD strategy was to insure survival first and insure first adopter were taken care of and to prove that high PQ and AQ could be delivered within HD DVD perceived limitations.

That is to prove that Dl 30GB and VC-1 was up to the task of delivering high qaulity HD movies. Once that's established, then it diminishes the reasons you need the capacity and bandwidth advantages of Blu-ray, which come at higher transition costs.

The 2006 race was about establishing HD quality credentials with limited production runs of the 1st generation players. Limited player quantities, limited disc sales. You can't expect to sell more than 10000 copies of a title if you have only 100,000 or 175,000 players in the market.

Even at a 28 x annual attach rate for each player, 28 x 175000 = 4,900,000 total sales 150 titles out would only give a 32,666 average sales per copy even if all 175,000 players had an fantastic attach rate of 28 each.

That just wan't expected. 2006 was basically test marketing because of the limited numbers of players in circulation.

The 2007 race is about moving to mass market adoption. the PS3 has now started the second phase and starting to generate mass adoption numbers, but we in January are comparing a mass market product to the sales of niche products ( the 1st gen HD DVD players) so until we see the HD DVD 2nd generation player numbers start to kick in, we're talking a short term mass market apples to niche sales oranges issue here.

Just too early to tell.

Is HD really good enough to pay 3x for HW (at minimum) and 2x for titles ??

b2b


I am worried about this too. I hope PS3 could give bluray enough install base that studios wouldn't have a hard time to justify the investment and price in HD optical as a whole. We, AV enthusiast, could then get a steady stream of HD content.

The current market data is not too reassuring and Hollywood's big plan seems to be on the download front according to the interview with Warner's CEO in New Yorker. How much time window does HD optical have before it is too late?

I am worried about this too. I hope PS3 could give bluray enough install base that studios wouldn't have a hard time to justify the investment and price in HD optical as a whole. We, AV enthusiast, could then get a steady stream of HD content.

The current market data is not too reassuring and Hollywood's big plan seems to be on the download front according to the interview with Warner's CEO in New Yorker. How much time window does HD optical have before it is too late?

Well I think HD DVD is thinking of this and thats why they want faster adoption, Amirm and Talkstr8t went through great pains in this thread (linked below) to explain how both formats can use a combination of these optical discs and downloaded content to leverage the bandwidth and network storage abilities to merge the two concepts of HD optical and downloaded content.

They both think you can start with HD optical and then merge into downloaded content to supplemet them, much faster than true HD downloaded content.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=788514&page=1&pp=60

At the time the HD-A1 was priced, the price of the PS3 was unknown. The $500 price point was set to be an early knockout (no company is going to play for a tie before they know they can't win). Once the PS3 was released, all that changed, but the early movement was already done.

There is a bit of rewriting history in your post.

HD-A1 was priced at $500 to compete with PS3. Though the price was not known, it wasn't difficult to guess. Also, the release date for PS3 was supposed to be spring which got pushed to Winter.

Who do you believe it hurts the most in the short term? Not the consumers, since we're getting more content overall at lower prices.The format war hurts the consumer the most. With overall adoption greatly reduced due to consumer uncertainty, both sides tend to hold back on a great deal of premium content waiting for their to be a large enough target market to make a big splash. The death of one format will likely result in a sales surge on the order of 3x for the surviving format (Blu-ray, naturally!).

- Talk

or vice versa ;)

The format war hurts the consumer the most. With overall adoption greatly reduced due to consumer uncertainty, both sides tend to hold back on a great deal of premium content waiting for their to be a large enough target market to make a big splash. The death of one format will likely result in a sales surge on the order of 3x for the surviving format (Blu-ray, naturally!).

- Talk

Because we all know that once hd dvd disappears everyone will rush out in droves to buy their $1000 br player. \end{sarcasm}

No one here has any real idea whether those Sony numbers are true or not but i wouldn't be surprised if the rough unit figures aren't too far off the mark, especially depending on when they were taken. Take the HD-DVD 1.5 million discs shipped claim. That was in mid november, before the Xbox add-on had shipped and just around the time when Paramount had touted they had the highest initial shipment of discs for MI:3 at 20,000 for BOTH formats.

Looking back at the HD-DVD releases prior to mid november and i can't see anything that would compare to a title of that scale apart from King Kong, Batman Begins and V For Vendetta. In fact, it wouldn't even surprise me if some of those 110 releases by then had sold in the very low thousands mark.

There's no doubting BD sales have picked up since the launch of the PS3 and to take a lead over HD-DVD in such a short space of time means it's the dominant factor. What numbers like those would imply though is that the PS3 attach rate is pretty small!

The HD-DVD side is complaining about the lack of new releases while the HD-DVD group put more emphasis on hardware at CES. At this point it really could be that it's all about attracting new customers. With average title sales being that low, maybe the likes of Warner and Universal (and i'm sure they know way more than we do) weren't overly concerned about flooding the market at this early stage. Paramount had one of the biggest sellers yet is barely even making an effort on both formats this year so far. New Line and Dreamworks haven't even bothered to enter the game yet. That must say something about software sales surely. I said before, the BDA has played it's ace in the PS3 and it has no choice but to concentrate and hype up the software aspect. It's hoping that the attach rate will grow for the PS3 with consumers wanting the big titles. At this stage, I'm not so sure that will work. It will certainly help but if HD-DVD can get cheap players out and attract consumers in at a point when it's not too late, it still has the ability to take over. This war is still in it's early days i think.

Rant over....
Pretty cogent rant. ;)

The format war hurts the consumer the most. With overall adoption greatly reduced due to consumer uncertainty, both sides tend to hold back on a great deal of premium content waiting for their to be a large enough target market to make a big splash. The death of one format will likely result in a sales surge on the order of 3x for the surviving format (Blu-ray, naturally!).

- Talk

It is ridiculous to suggest the average Joe Customer to go buy a video game console if they want a movie player. And that too, an oddball George Foreman grill lookalike that does not work with eny universal remote ever made. :rolleyes:

Because we all know that once hd dvd disappears everyone will rush out in droves to buy their $1000 br player. \end{sarcasm}

Are you stuck in November 2006?

Are you stuck in November 2006?

Eh, are you suggesting that the average HD customer will buy the PS3 just as likely as they would a standalone player? If so, that is a pretty bold statement to make with not enough data to support it.

Are you stuck in November 2006?

Yea PS3 is cheaper but it doesn't pass the WAF for the rest of the country that are not gamers.

Eh, are you suggesting that the average HD customer will buy the PS3 just as likely as they would a standalone player? If so, that is a pretty bold statement to make with not enough data to support it.

I'm suggesting that many on this board have chosen this player, though I recognize we here don't represent the average. I do recognize the average HD consumers desire for value, and the PS3 definitely has value for anyone with children (which I imagine the average HD consumer also has).

I'm suggesting that many on this board have chosen this player, though I recognize we here don't represent the average. I do recognize the average HD consumers desire for value, and the PS3 definitely has value for anyone with children (which I imagine the average HD consumer also has).Children? Sixty-nine percent of American heads of households play computer and video games. Ninety-three percent of people who make the actual purchase of computer games and 83% of people who make the actual purchase of video games are 18 years of age or older. The average age of the game buyer is 40 years old. Taken from The Entertainment Software Association http://www.theesa.com/facts/gamer_data.php

Children? Sixty-nine percent of American heads of households play computer and video games. Ninety-three percent of people who make the actual purchase of computer games and 83% of people who make the actual purchase of video games are 18 years of age or older. The average age of the game buyer is 40 years old. Taken from The Entertainment Software Association http://www.theesa.com/facts/gamer_data.php

ESA? what else do you think they would have you believe.

They probably count old lady's that play solitaire on their computers as gamers :rolleyes:

a friend with kids was over at our house for a superbowl party checking out my PS3. I told him I basically used it as a BR player, which he was evidently unaware of, but seemed interested. His kid thought it was cool and was drooling over it for video games, then the dad said "but that thing is like $800 right?" I laughed and told him $499. I have a feeling he's gonna look for one this week, if he can find one in OC. It's still tough.

People are willing to buy the PS3 instead of a standalone player, they just need to know about it.

Because we all know that once hd dvd disappears everyone will rush out in droves to buy their $1000 br player. \end{sarcasm}

I know in HD DVD land there's only one game in town to get a player from, but I assure you that a Samsung or Philips BD standalone player can be had for $500.

I know in HD DVD land there's only one game in town to get a player from, but I assure you that a Samsung or Philips BD standalone player can be had for $500.

Well, now the HD-A2 is $384 and change at Amazon. It is a moving target. ;)

I know in HD DVD land there's only one game in town to get a player from, but I assure you that a Samsung or Philips BD standalone player can be had for $500.

on ebay maybe, but hey of your on ebay you could just pick up an hd-a1 for less then $250

Well, now the HD-A2 is $389 and change at Amazon. It is a moving target. ;)

$100 is not enough to bribe me to hold out on Disney, Fox, Sony, MGM, and Lionsgate releases for a year. Especially when Universal isn't releasing anything and reneges on their highest profile announcement.

$100 is not enough to bribe me to hold out on Disney, Fox, Sony, MGM, and Lionsgate releases for a year.

Me either. I have multiple Columbia House memberships where I can get DVDs for under $7 on average. They'll hold me until the format war is over.

I recently picked up 21 DVDs for $38.

Me either. I have multiple Columbia House memberships where I can get DVDs for under $7 on average. They'll hold me until the format war is over.

I recently picked up 21 DVDs for $38.

And I have xbox live downloads, as well as showtime HD, HBOHD, StarzHD, HDNet,TBSHD, and HD PPV. But I may get a BD player someday anyway.

EDIT: Less than 500K seems rediculously low for HD DVD since launch. How does that jive with 175K players and a high attach rate?

think about it, it is not 175k sinse launch. In June Toshiba Global said they shipped the 20k player (WW), in Oct they shipped #50k (WW). Toshiba NA said last year 70k HD DVD players shipped (NA) and most likely around 60k sold (NA).

If 10k players sold to NA in the firt few months then even if the average is 5 movies it is still 50k.

I'm surprised those numbers aren't higher. I remember in October (?) when Toshiba came out and said 1.5M discs have been shipped. That leaves an awful lot on shelves and in the warehouse. Good find, none the less.

it isn't if you think about it. The problem is that most people don't realize that shipped means left the replicator and means that in a few weeks that many will reach the distributor then the store and lastly the shelves, some would not have been at the store when you read the article (let alone have been bought when you read it- obviously there is a good chance they sold reached there by now). Then go look at your store (obviously a bit late now) how many disks are on the shelves? if there are 100 (to pick a nice round number) imagine how many stores there are and if many have roughly how many it adds up to.

no matter how many shipped you should always assume a fraction sold.

Its possible that apples and oranges are being counted.

the only thing I can think (if one starts with the assumption that it is wrong) is that combos are missing. but then again it would make a less then 50k difference.

Interesting that those are U.S. numbers only. And didn't they say that 90% of PS3 buyers were buying a movie? If so, then there should be about 2 million BD sales.
no, they said something like 80% of PS3 owners that took their poll said they will try BD movies or something like that. I don't remember them saying that the customers bought movies

I would like to agree with this analogy but it ignores the concept of "momentum". These things have a certain inertia about them, and the further ahead one side gets, the easier it is to get further ahead.

Skogan I would also add it is missing the big picture. The match was organized by the guy in Saw and there is a 20 ton weight covering the match and a timer ticking down to when it is released. The timer will be stopped if one is declared the winner. That 20 ton weight is DVD

"According to Sony, the company currently lays claim to 40 percent of the the Blu-ray player market with the PS3 and the company's $1,000 BDP-S1 standalone player."

"SCEA states that cumulative Blu-ray movie unit sales stand at just over 439,000 units in the US, while total HD-DVD sales are just under 438,000 units."

These two don't make much sense. These people are just playing loose with figures ....

okay.. now here's a very rough set of calculations to maybe help understand the 1.5 million shipped discs statement..

it involves taking amazon data now we can see stock levels. I took a reasonably big catalogue title, King King which is ranked between 3-4000 right now and it looks like it sold about 60 copies over 2 weeks. The overall stock graph shows a consistent overall stock level of around 14,000 units.

now, let's use those 60 units as a ballpark average figure for each title, bearing in mind some will sell a lot more but the ones in the lowest rankings will sell very little in a 2 week period. There's about 150 titles.

150 x 60 = 9,000
9,000/2 = 4,500 per week
4,500/14,0000 = 32 % of stock level sold.

now:

32% x 1,500,000 = 480,000

now, the 1.5 million figure was over two months ago so it doesn't tally up to Jan/Feb '07 figures but then the 60 average could be even lower than that as way more titles are below King Kong than above.

like i said, it's very all very and generic with the ballpark figures but make of that what you will... ;)

and i need to get out more obviously! lol!

Because we all know that once hd dvd disappears everyone will rush out in droves to buy their $1000 br player.

do this, go to the high end projector forum and start a poll asking for those that have not bought an HD DVD or BD player if there was no format war would you buy a player at 1000$ today? yes/no and then look at the result. I know a few people that have said as long as the winner is not clear that they won’t buy anything.

do this, go to the high end projector forum and start a poll asking for those that have not bought an HD DVD or BD player if there was no format war would you buy a player at 1000$ today? yes/no and then look at the result. I know a few people that have said as long as the winner is not clear that they won’t buy anything.

Then let's kill off BD. Problem will be solved, with players affordable to all sections of the buyer spectrum. That thought did cross your mind, did it not?

Yea PS3 is cheaper but it doesn't pass the WAF for the rest of the country that are not gamers.

sure looks like you are wrong

I WAS sitting the format war out, but looks like the wife made the decision for me (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=799650)

Then let's kill off BD. Problem will be solved, with players affordable to all sections of the buyer spectrum. That thought did cross your mind, did it not?

You took the words right out of my mouth. Great minds think alike. ;)

sure looks like you are wrong

I WAS sitting the format war out, but looks like the wife made the decision for me (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=799650)

This sounds like this thread's numbers. ONE data point doesn't establish a trend. :D

Then let's kill off BD. Problem will be solved, with players affordable to all sections of the buyer spectrum. That thought did cross your mind, did it not?

why get rid of the better format, the format that is selling better, the format that has more support by manufacturers, studios and end users? Just because some people wasted their money because they believed some BS posted several months ago

why get rid of the better format, the format that is selling better, the format that has more support by manufacturers, studios and end users? Just because some people wasted their money because they believed some BS posted several months ago

BD has proven to be the better format only on paper. In real life, HD DVD has been better. Although arguably, they are about the same.

Still, HD DVD would require less retooling of the replication facilities, and cost less, (yes, even cost to replicate). So kill BD :)

Originally Posted by GeorgeLV
I know in HD DVD land there's only one game in town to get a player from, but I assure you that a Samsung or Philips BD standalone player can be had for $500.

Isn't that kind of like saying the Black & Decker Blu-ray can be had for $500 when the Dewalt HD-DVD sells for $380? ;)

why get rid of the better format, the format that is selling better, the format that has more support by manufacturers, studios and end users? Just because some people wasted their money because they believed some BS posted several months ago

I thought HD DVD still had the higher SI numbers. Am I wrong?

Are you still trying to use that one data point to prove a trend? Hopefully (for you) a trend will emerge... but for right now you're putting a lot of meaning on it.

why get rid of the better format, the format that is selling better, the format that has more support by manufacturers, studios and end users? Just because some people wasted their money because they believed some BS posted several months ago

No, because BD continues to feed people BS. Until I see full disclosure from BDA about the truth regarding their players and their capabilities, I will continue to point out the fallacy of buying into spec sheets rather than finished products.

This sounds like this thread's numbers. ONE data point doesn't establish a trend.

you are right, but like this thread you have some people posting some self-deluded comments with no proof and others trying to understand the real world looking for clues and trying to understand what they mean. And no matter how many datapoints are added they can’t compete withg those delusions.

The PS3 is a sexy machine and extremely WAF friendly. I dare you to put any of the stand alone players together, the 360 with add on and a PS3 and ask women what they would rather have and see which one has the most positive reviews

The PS3 is a sexy machine ...

Okay, now I'm concerned...


:)

I thought HD DVD still had the higher SI numbers. Am I wrong?


the last data point(VS balance graph) was Jan 21 now we are Feb 7. There was http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4698&Itemid=2 posted a few pages back. My guess this is based on Feb 3 numbers. We will see in a week or two

the last data point(VS balance graph) was Jan 21 now we are Feb 7. There was http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4698&Itemid=2 posted a few pages back. My guess this is based on Feb 3 numbers. We will see in a week or two

Sony claimed they just pulled ahead, so I would expect this fridays NPD numbers to show a very small SI lead for BD.

okay.. now here's a very rough set of calculations to maybe help understand the 1.5 million shipped discs statement..

it involves taking amazon data now we can see stock levels. I took a reasonably big catalogue title, King King which is ranked between 3-4000 right now and it looks like it sold about 60 copies over 2 weeks. The overall stock graph shows a consistent overall stock level of around 14,000 units.

now, let's use those 60 units as a ballpark average figure for each title, bearing in mind some will sell a lot more but the ones in the lowest rankings will sell very little in a 2 week period. There's about 150 titles.

150 x 60 = 9,000
9,000/2 = 4,500 per week
4,500/14,0000 = 32 % of stock level sold.

now:

32% x 1,500,000 = 480,000

now, the 1.5 million figure was over two months ago so it doesn't tally up to Jan/Feb '07 figures but then the 60 average could be even lower than that as way more titles are below King Kong than above.

like i said, it's very all very and generic with the ballpark figures but make of that what you will... ;)

Were are stock levels listed on Amazon ?

b2b

check the eproductwars site.. they have a graph for overall stock and individual stock amounts for each title.

Were are stock levels listed on Amazon ? If you go to the dvdwars site.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

Scroll down to the bottom where the individual images of the titles are.

There you will see by each title the Amazon items in stock listing for each title.

Of course thats the automatically robot calculated level, and Amazon is famously known for its deistributed virtual stockage capability , direct from supplier fufillment shipping and Just in Time inventory practices, but at least its something else to consider. It might be useful considering that weve see a lot of Amazon out of stock issues for some titles.

Interestingly enough, The Departed is number one for both HD DVD and BD, with HD DVD ranking of 36 and BD ranking of 40. Of course, that could change at any moment.

...I took a reasonably big catalogue title, King King which is ranked between 3-4000 right now and it looks like it sold about 60 copies over 2 weeks. The overall stock graph shows a consistent overall stock level of around 14,000 units.

...now, the 1.5 million figure was over two months ago so it doesn't tally up to Jan/Feb '07 figures but then the 60 average could be even lower than that as way more titles are below King Kong than above.

like i said, it's very all very and generic with the ballpark figures but make of that what you will... ;)Isn't Kong packed in with the 360 add-on drive? Not sure how that would affect the sales numbers tho.

Still, HD DVD would require less retooling of the replication facilities, and cost less, (yes, even cost to replicate). So kill BD :)Get the TL51 discs with 1.5x spin rate out and then I might not mind if BD got killed off at that point.

--Darin

Sony claimed they just pulled ahead, so I would expect this fridays NPD numbers to show a very small SI lead for BD.

NPD does not do SW, VS does, and the other place we get them from are roughly two weeks behind, like you I think it is last weeks results (hell Sony might even be getting daily updates, so it might not even be on a weekends numbers.

Isn't Kong packed in with the 360 add-on drive? Not sure how that would affect the sales numbers tho.

Not counted, just like Talladega Nights with the ps3.

Isn't Kong packed in with the 360 add-on drive? Not sure how that would affect the sales numbers tho.

sales=sales, give aways don't count in sales. Kong, Talladega Nights don't count

sales=sales, give aways don't count in sales. Kong, Talladega Nights don't count

Well I bet they count all the BR's given away at BB's buy one get one sale that was sponsored by sony. :rolleyes:

Get the TL51 discs with 1.5x spin rate out and then I might not mind if BD got killed off at that point.

--Darin

From my point of view, one could demand TL51/1.5, QL68/2, or whatever random numbers one wants, and it wouldn't make any difference. More will always be more.

But the truth is, I wouldn't notice the difference. To me, more won't make it any better, it will still be equal. The improvements that I would see by going to TL51/1.5 are subtle enough and rare enough that it would be trivial to me. I probably wouldn't even notice them. So I don't value them.

My 2K in audio gear doesn't allow me to hear any better that DD+ really. TruHD is a treat, but only for psychological reasons. I can't tell the difference in my theater. My hearing probably isn't good enough anyway. So audio improvements wouldn't help any.

PQ can be improved, but that's mostly by improving the masters. I don't think I ever notice any artifacts that can rightfully be attributed to the formats. People like you and Ben may notice things here or there, but I don't. I would have to look real hard to find an artifcat, and even then they are very rare, very brief, and very subtle. So I don't think I would notice any PQ benefit by going to TL51/1.5

The gains that could be made by going to TL51/1.5 are trivial to me. So I don't care much about them. Most of the gains to be had now are to be found at other places in the distibution chain, such as getting a clean master. And I would bet that there are far more people like me then like you (I don't know if that's a good thing or not.) For probably 98% of the country, going to TL51/1.5 would be extra effort for no benefit.

Well I bet they count all the BR's given away at BB's buy one get one sale that was sponsored by sony.

so buying at half price should not be allowed? and how do you know Sony has something to do with it?

And what about Toshiba that gives you coupons for three free movies with an HD DVD player?

Incidentally, i was just over at deepdiscountdvd.com shopping for some SD DVD's (oh, the horror!). They have a new site and are now listing their top 20 hi def sellers..


1.Batman Begins [HD DVD]
2.V For Vendetta [HD DVD]
3.Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby [Blu-ray Disc]
4.Superman Returns [HD DVD]
5.Mission: Impossible - Ultimate Missions Collection [HD DVD]
6.Serenity [HD DVD]
7.King Kong [HD DVD]
8.Mission: Impossible III [HD DVD]
9.Forbidden Planet [HD DVD]
10.Last Samurai [HD DVD]
11.Corpse Bride [HD DVD]
12.Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines [HD DVD]
13.Casablanca [HD DVD]
14.Superman Returns [Blu-ray Disc]
15.Thing [HD DVD]
16.X-Men: The Last Stand [Blu-ray Disc]
17.Polar Express [HD DVD]
18.Miami Vice [HD DVD]
19.Goodfellas [HD DVD]
20.Mission: Impossible - Ultimate Missions Collection [Blu-ray Disc]

None of the recent titles are in there so i have no idea when this was dated but it's an interesting list nonetheless from a popular online retailer....

From my point of view, one could demand TL51/1.5, QL68/2, or whatever random numbers one wants, and it wouldn't make any difference. More will always be more.

But the truth is, I wouldn't notice the difference. To me, more won't make it any better, it will still be equal. The improvements that I would see by going to TL51/1.5 are subtle enough and rare enough that it would be trivial to me. I probably wouldn't even notice them. So I don't value them.

My 2K in audio gear doesn't allow me to hear any better that DD+ really. TruHD is a treat, but only for psychological reasons. I can't tell the difference in my theater. My hearing probably isn't good enough anyway. So audio improvements wouldn't help any.

PQ can be improved, but that's mostly by improving the masters. I don't think I ever notice any artifacts that can rightfully be attributed to the formats. People like you and Ben may notice things here or there, but I don't. I would have to look real hard to find an artifcat, and even then they are very rare, very brief, and very subtle. So I don't think I would notice any PQ benefit by going to TL51/1.5

The gains that could be made by going to TL51/1.5 are trivial to me. So I don't care much about them. Most of the gains to be had now are to be found at other places in the distibution chain, such as getting a clean master. And I would bet that there are far more people like me then like you (I don't know if that's a good thing or not.) For probably 98% of the country, going to TL51/1.5 would be extra effort for no benefit.

the issue is that you are not thinking about it. Look at most DVDs you buy, what percent of the content is extra and what is the movie. What percent of the disk is occupied by the one language you watch and the video? When you start including in your calc that DVD went from something like 90% movie to <50% movie you start realizing that enough defined by "can a movie with decent PQ and AQ fit" is the wrong way to look at it. What happens when studios go “we have those extras on film, instead of porting a subset of the DVD let’s redo them in HD?” what happens when “we included the directors PiP commentary, why not the main actors commentary?” what happens when like DVD “you know there are some XXX speaking people in the US, why make different version for oversees shipping when we can make one master for the US, Canada and XXXland where I have the distribution rights”.

the issue is that you are not thinking about it. Look at most DVDs you buy, what percent of the content is extra and what is the movie. What percent of the disk is occupied by the one language you watch and the video? When you start including in your calc that DVD went from something like 90% movie to <50% movie you start realizing that enough defined by "can a movie with decent PQ and AQ fit" is the wrong way to look at it. What happens when studios go “we have those extras on film, instead of porting a subset of the DVD let’s redo them in HD?” what happens when “we included the directors PiP commentary, why not the main actors commentary?” what happens when like DVD “you know there are some XXX speaking people in the US, why make different version for oversees shipping when we can make one master for the US, Canada and XXXland where I have the distribution rights”.

Well, what happens when they say, "why don't we put two movies on TL51, one of them locked that the consumer can pay for later," etc.

More will always be more, but at some point you run out of space. Studios can always find a way to make a good product bad. Having TL51/1.5 doesn't save you from that possability, and it doesn't really even mitigate it.

One could just as well ask, "why not wait for the 200G disc to come out, then we would be really safe, right? There's no reason to settle for 51G's"

Ok. Atleast we have now figured out how NPD found that HD DVD standalone players and BD standalone players sold are roughly the same.

"According to Sony, the company currently lays claim to 40 percent of the the Blu-ray player market with the PS3 and the company's $1,000 BDP-S1 standalone player."

So, let us say there are 1M PS3s sold. That means some 1.5M other stand alone players have been sold.

There is definitely a mystery player none of us have heard of which is selling in very large numbers and making HD DVD standalone player numbers almost same of the BD standalone player numbers.

Does anyone know what this mystery player is ?

sales=sales, give aways don't count in sales. Kong, Talladega Nights don't countThe point I was trying to make with Kong being a pack-in was that the blob was using that movie for his amazon average of 60 sold in two weeks. But sales for Kong might be much lower than an average HD DVD title would sell if it was being given away.

But I don't know how that would affect the blob's calculations if it would affect them at all.

One could just as well ask, "why not wait for the 200G disc to come out, then we would be really safe, right? There's no reason to settle for 51G's"

no one is offering a 200GB disk at the moment. There is someone that is offering 50GB@1.5x and someone claiming 51GB@1.5x is doable. Darin said that he prefers BD because 50>30 and 1.5x>1x and added if HD DVDs claims are more then BS then he would not have any issue with HD DVD. You asked why do we need that when we can drop lossless and 30GB@1x is enough. I pointed out that looking just at the movie is short sited because there are very few movies distributed (if any) that don't have anything other then one language and just the movie. Once you start thinking of the most likely added content you will see 30 and 1x are not enough.

there was a time when guys like Ben were saying 15GB was more then enough and very few movies will even need 30GB.

The point I was trying to make with Kong being a pack-in was that the blob was using that movie for his amazon average of 60 sold in two weeks. But sales for Kong might be much lower than an average HD DVD title would sell if it was being given away.

But I don't know how that would affect the blob's calculations if it would affect them at all.

OK, I thought it was a question (i.e. does VS numbers include the Kong shipped with the add-on)

If I understand what he did, he compared changes in stock to positioning. so I would guess there should not be much effect.

The gains that could be made by going to TL51/1.5 are trivial to me.That's fair. Do you believe Amir when he has taken the position that Paramount chose to get "Babel" done quicker on HD DVD and compromised the image quality compared to the source by using AVC with a loop filter instead of using VC-1 and spending more time? At least that is the position he seems to have taken. He won't answer my more difficult questions on the subject, so I'm going by what he has posted. I'm guessing you understand that the need for a loop filter to clean up blocking errors has a dependency on the bitrates allowed (with the codec tending toward less blocking and less or no need for a loop filter at higher bitrates) and that "Babel" doesn't have lossless audio, so that can't be blamed for any issues encoding the video. BTW: "Babel" is 2 hours and 22 minutes, so it isn't like it is a length that should be difficult for HD DVD given previous claims. It looks like it doesn't even have IME to take away from the bitrates for encoding the movie. The only extra I see listed is a trailer in HD, but I suspect that their issues were less to do with disc size and more to do with the bandwidth ceiling.

--Darin

The point I was trying to make with Kong being a pack-in was that the blob was using that movie for his amazon average of 60 sold in two weeks. But sales for Kong might be much lower than an average HD DVD title would sell if it was being given away.

But I don't know how that would affect the blob's calculations if it would affect them at all.

That's a fair point bearing in mind a number of people didn't have to buy it, so i looked at Pitch Black which also seems to have sold around 60 in the same period and is around the 3400 ranking. It really is such a crude calculation but the idea was to just come up with some kind of average weekly sales figure. Some titles look like they've literally sold next to nothing over the two weeks and others have a zero graph when the front page says there's a quantity in stock so there are obviously some errors in the consistency of retrieving stock data but it's all an attempt to vindicate the Sony and Toshiba figures at the same time and illustrate that the perceived discrepancy may not be that wild after all. :)

One other thing of note: Amazon looks like it's capable of selling 1000 + of a big title over time so if the true unit figures are as low as Sony say, Amazon is probably representing around 10% or more of all hi def sales.

Incidentally, i was just over at deepdiscountdvd.com shopping for some SD DVD's (oh, the horror!). They have a new site and are now listing their top 20 hi def sellers..


1.Batman Begins [HD DVD]
2.V For Vendetta [HD DVD]
3.Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby [Blu-ray Disc]
4.Superman Returns [HD DVD]
5.Mission: Impossible - Ultimate Missions Collection [HD DVD]
6.Serenity [HD DVD]
7.King Kong [HD DVD]
8.Mission: Impossible III [HD DVD]
9.Forbidden Planet [HD DVD]
10.Last Samurai [HD DVD]
11.Corpse Bride [HD DVD]
12.Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines [HD DVD]
13.Casablanca [HD DVD]
14.Superman Returns [Blu-ray Disc]
15.Thing [HD DVD]
16.X-Men: The Last Stand [Blu-ray Disc]
17.Polar Express [HD DVD]
18.Miami Vice [HD DVD]
19.Goodfellas [HD DVD]
20.Mission: Impossible - Ultimate Missions Collection [Blu-ray Disc]


Clearly they seem to be selling more HD DVDs - 16 of top 20 and 9 of top 10. You would expect that with cost conscious HD DVD crowd.

BTW, is PS3 people are buying most BDs - why the Talladega the highest selling BD ?

That's a fair point bearing in mind a number of people didn't have to buy it, so i looked at Pitch Black which also seems to have sold around 60 in the same period and is around the 3400 ranking. It really is such a crude calculation but the idea was to just come up with some kind of average weekly sales figure. Some titles look like they've literally sold next to nothing over the two weeks and others have a zero graph when the front page says there's a quantity in stock so there are obviously some errors in the consistency of retrieving stock data but it's all an attempt to vindicate the Sony and Toshiba figures at the same time and illustrate that the perceived discrepancy may not be that wild after all. :)

One other thing of note: Amazon looks like it's capable of selling 1000 + of a big title over time so if the true unit figures are as low as Sony say, Amazon is probably representing around 10% or more of all hi def sales. It would not surprise me if Amazon was doing 10% of all HD DVD and Blu-ray sales now. I think some estimates are that they were/are doing 3% or more of all DVD sales, and first adopter weanies like AVS guys are more likely to be buying titles there than J6P DVD buyers.

DDD has very slim pickings for Blu-ray, and their prices can be ridiculous.

And can we keep this conversation to deal with sales data? We don't need yet another versus thread.

no one is offering a 200GB disk at the moment. There is someone that is offering 50GB@1.5x and someone claiming 51GB@1.5x is doable. Darin said that he prefers BD because 50>30 and 1.5x>1x and added if HD DVDs claims are more then BS then he would not have any issue with HD DVD. You asked why do we need that when we can drop lossless and 30GB@1x is enough. I pointed out that looking just at the movie is short sited because there are very few movies distributed (if any) that don't have anything other then one language and just the movie. Once you start thinking of the most likely added content you will see 30 and 1x are not enough.

there was a time when guys like Ben were saying 15GB was more then enough and very few movies will even need 30GB.

no one is offereing a 200 GB ? how about TDK ?
http://gear.ign.com/articles/753/753812p1.html
CES 2007: TDK'S 200GB Blu-ray Disc
"At CES 2007, attendees can preview the 200GB blue laser disc, and learn more about the technologies behind the format that is redefining the consumer electronics industry."

It would not surprise me if Amazon was doing 10% of all HD DVD and Blu-ray sales now. I think some estimates are that they were/are doing 3% or more of all DVD sales, and first adopter weanies like AVS guys are more likely to be buying titles there than J6P DVD buyers.

I have a suggestion that may or may not work, and it requires to be done on weekends.

I've noticed that thedvdwars now publishes the cumulative numbers of BD and HD DVD in stock at Amazon, through some smart scripts which pull the info from web services.

If - and that's a big IF - Amazon doesn't move or process stocks on weekends, and the only marginal increases are due to people canceling their orders, one could pick the numbers at 00:00 on Saturday and check again at 23:59, and the difference should tell us how many hard copies were actually sold for each format.

Of course that will exclude both presales and sales of titles not currently in stock, not to mention that buying patterns on weekends will certainly be different from those during working days.

I wouldn't be surprised if Amazon only accounts for 2-3% of sales for both formats. People at AVS claim that they buy quite a lot of discs on brick and mortar stores, and there are discrepancies between the retail Top 10 (Rentrak and such) and the Amazon Top 10.

From my point of view, one could demand TL51/1.5, QL68/2, or whatever random numbers one wants, and it wouldn't make any difference. More will always be more.

But the truth is, I wouldn't notice the difference. To me, more won't make it any better, it will still be equal. The improvements that I would see by going to TL51/1.5 are subtle enough and rare enough that it would be trivial to me. I probably wouldn't even notice them. So I don't value them.

My 2K in audio gear doesn't allow me to hear any better that DD+ really. TruHD is a treat, but only for psychological reasons. I can't tell the difference in my theater. My hearing probably isn't good enough anyway. So audio improvements wouldn't help any.

PQ can be improved, but that's mostly by improving the masters. I don't think I ever notice any artifacts that can rightfully be attributed to the formats. People like you and Ben may notice things here or there, but I don't. I would have to look real hard to find an artifcat, and even then they are very rare, very brief, and very subtle. So I don't think I would notice any PQ benefit by going to TL51/1.5

The gains that could be made by going to TL51/1.5 are trivial to me. So I don't care much about them. Most of the gains to be had now are to be found at other places in the distibution chain, such as getting a clean master. And I would bet that there are far more people like me then like you (I don't know if that's a good thing or not.) For probably 98% of the country, going to TL51/1.5 would be extra effort for no benefit.
Some good points, indeed! :)
I've always been a PQ guy. Audio is good (and I have a decent surround system: it's a Bose........Nah, just kidding) but I'm not sure I can hear all these subtle variations some folks speak of. I just remember a cartoon whose viewpoint is from behind the bar--all the different beers have a tube leading into a single barrel. And, of course, each drinker swears by the unique taste of his beer. :p

That's fair. Do you believe Amir when he has taken the position that Paramount chose to get "Babel" done quicker on HD DVD and compromised the image quality compared to the source by using AVC with a loop filter instead of using VC-1 and spending more time?
--Darin

I haven't seen Babel, and I don't know whether Amir is right or wrong. But lets for a moment assume he is wrong, and the compromises are due to insufficient bitrate. Even if that is the case, would I even notice that fact if I watched the movie?

Right now, If I picked 10 random HD DVD movies, representing 12000 minutes of HD content, how many seconds of that would I be able to notice a bit rate problem? For Ben or you, that number may be high. You may actually be able to find a few minutes worth of errors. But I bet I would be hard pressed to find very many. In fact, if I really tried, and I was lucky, I might find 20 seconds worth of problems on 12000 minutes worth of material.

As a point of reference, I can't think of seeing any bitrate errors on the 13 HD DVD's I own, or the ones I've rented. But of course I don't actively look for them, and I haven't been trained to spot them.

I said all of that to say this: For most viewers, any problems due to an insufficient bitrate are rare enough and subtle enough that they are a none factor. In the big picture, the increase in PQ and AQ we can get from increasing the bitrate are trivial to most people. Improvements in PQ can still be made, but they come from cleaner masters, (and in some people's opinions, less use of film grain.) Compared to that, bitrate is such a small issue it really doesn't matter.

I go back to my hood ornimant analogy. If I were about to buy a car, even if I was concerned with fuel efficiency, I wouldn't restrict my search to those cars that lacked a hood ornimant. Even though a hood ornimant would theoreticaly increase drag and lower my gas milage, it is such a small improvement that it is trivial and doesn't deserve consideration. It's not that I challenge the fact that a hood ornimante may hurt my gas milage, I just don't think it effect is substantial and therefore it doesn't matter.

And so it is with bitrate. It's not that I challenge the fact that increasing bitrate would have any effect. I just don't think it's effect would be significant for most people. In that perspective, most people wouldn't notice the difference between a format that was TL51/1.5 versus DL30/1.

Is this chit-chat to kill time until more VideoScan data get released? ;)

It's not that I challenge the fact that increasing bitrate would have any effect. I just don't think it's effect would be significant for most people. In that perspective, most people wouldn't notice the difference between a format that was TL51/1.5 versus DL30/1.I agree that if due care is done with the video encode using VC-1 or AVC that the bitrate "should" not be a factor for video quality. What makes the TL51/1.5 interesting is the ability to offer lossless (with compression codec) 7.1 audio (at least 20bit/48kHz) for a three hour movie with PiP commentry and some other 5.1 DD+ alternate language soundtracks. Isn't LOTR supposed to use 7.1 audio? Discrete audio channels for all the surround speakers does make a noticable (for movies) difference for a lot of us.

Is this chit-chat to kill time until more VideoScan data get released? ;)

Yeah, sorry for going OT. :)

no one is offereing a 200 GB ? how about TDK ?
http://gear.ign.com/articles/753/753812p1.html
CES 2007: TDK'S 200GB Blu-ray Disc

That is a recordable disc. Not ROM.

...we are proud of our work to shape the future of digital recording...

Seach and read about holographic discs as well - to go along with this lab-ware.

DDD has very slim pickings for Blu-ray, and their prices can be ridiculous.

And can we keep this conversation to deal with sales data? We don't need yet another versus thread.

What are you talking about? DDD offers almost every Blu-ray with a SKU published to date. Ridiculous prices? They are cheaper than Amazon on most discs (sometimes only by a few cents, but that's still cheaper), and they offer free shipping on every disc, where Amazon doesn't always (only on discs $25 or more). Using DVD Price Search to compare, the total cost of a single disc order for Crank, Black Hawk Down, Saw, Underworld Evolution, etc. it was cheaper at DDD compared to Amazon. DDD is cheaper on 75% of their BD discs when compared to Amazon. The few discs that Amazon is cheaper on are only a few cents cheaper.

So the reality is, DDD has a very broad selection of BD discs and their total price more often than not is cheaper than Amazon. You will come out ahead at Amazon if you buy 3-4 discs at a time, but if you are just buying one disc, DDD is the way to go.

That is a recordable disc. Not ROM.



Seach and read about holographic discs as well - to go along with this lab-ware.

Actually I thought this was a ROM disc, but either way, it doesn't matter. All they can do is detect the four different layers on the disc. They can read the larger pit sizes used with DVD, but they are unable to read the smaller pit sizes used to give HD discs their higher capacity. So effectively, all they demonstrated is they could read maybe 18 GB of what is supposed to be a 200 GB disc. The only break through there was really just that they put four layers on a single side. Yippe!

So the reality is, DDD has a very broad selection of BD discs and their total price more often than not is cheaper than Amazon.

Nothing is better than Amazon with the 10% discount. If you have Amazon prime it is even better because you get it in two days. DDD takes forever if you take the free shipping.

Of course, all of this is irrelevant because BD buyers don't shop online (they're not "real" stores) and they're not interested in saving money.

"SCEA states that cumulative Blu-ray movie unit sales stand at just over 439,000 units in the US, while total HD-DVD sales are just under 438,000 units."

Interesting that those are U.S. numbers only. And didn't they say that 90% of PS3 buyers were buying a movie? If so, then there should be about 2 million BD sales.

Since when was it a good idea to listen to Sony to get an estimate of HD-DVD sales? :) For that matter, when was it ever a good idea to even listen to Sony when they estimate their own sales? The SCEA is Sony Computer Entertainment America in case some don't realize this. And since when did their software development division get into the habit of quoting movie and CE hardware related sales figures?

The only way this makes sense to me is if Sony is estimating that 439,000 discs were sold for use on the PS3, compared to 438,000 HD-DVD discs sold for use on the Xbox 360. These are the only areas they would have any expertise.

The info out of the HD-DVD side is this:

"The HD DVD group also cites ACNielsen as reporting that the average HD DVD owner has purchased 8.4 HD DVD movies to date, which they annualize to equal 28 HD DVD purchases in the first year ." This is a number we are all familiar with, and apparently Nielsen is the source of that number.

Toshiba was also quoted as saying 175,000 HD-DVD player sales, included PC drives, standalones, and Xbox 360 addons. So 175,000 x 8.4 disc average = 1.47 million discs. For the SCEA number to hold water, and to assume Nielson is correct in its 8.4 average, it would mean that fewer than 52,150 HD-DVD players have been sold. Now that number might work if you limit it to just the Xbox 360 addon, but I don't think it works if you include standalones (actually, it seems low for addons only too).

So again, my guess is SCEA is making estimates of PS3 related discs sales to Xbox 360 related disc sales. If this is the case, I think it shows a sad state of affairs for the PS3. It takes a million PS3's to outsell 52,000 360 addons, as far as disc sales go. Since both have been on the market for the same amount of time, it would be an apples to apples comparison. However, without further clarification from SCEA, we will never know what they were trying to spin.

Edit: It appears the 8.4 Nielson number was originally from October, so maybe at that time, there were only 52,000 player on the market (the addon and G2 players weren't available yet). We don't know if that 8.4 number held up through the end of the year, but since basically the same annualized attach rate was being thrown around at CES, the HD-DVD group at least seems to be indicating that it was close, which means the SCEA number is still way low.

However, if SCEA is basing their comments on data from October, then why is it just being brought to the press now? It would seem to be very misleading if this is the case. This whole statement by SCEA is just weird.

What are you talking about? DDD offers almost every Blu-ray with a SKU published to date. Ridiculous prices? They are cheaper than Amazon on most discs (sometimes only by a few cents, but that's still cheaper), and they offer free shipping on every disc, where Amazon doesn't always (only on discs $25 or more).

For the record, I have HDDISC10 and Prime. But for the sake of argument, let's leave those out of it.

Currently, their selection is okay, but when the Fox discs were initially released, they had none. Didn't even have the discs listed. It fluctuates too greatly to be considered a good source. As for price, Amazon currently lists AVP for $27.95 (http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000K0YLLY) while DDD lists the same exact disc as $32.93 (http://www.deepdiscount.com/Alien-vs--Predator--Blu-ray-Disc--Blu-ray_stcVVproductId7254219VVcatId462363VVviewprod.htm). To me, that is a hell of a difference. Sure, that's just one example, but for constancy, Amazon can't be beat.

For DVDs, they are the best (especially during their 20% off sales). But for HD stuff, I stay far away from them.

Seems to be here:
http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

It seems to update by the hour, you get graphs of the status, you can adjust time periods of graphs. I have been watching this weekly since HD-DVD was well ahead, there was a large bump in favor of Blu Ray and it seems to be leveling again.

It is still very close.

Is this chit-chat to kill time until more VideoScan data get released? ;)
I can almost smell the hair color and hear the whine of a row of dryers. :)

For the record, I have HDDISC10 and Prime. But for the sake of argument, let's leave those out of it.

Currently, their selection is okay, but when the Fox discs were initially released, they had none. Didn't even have the discs listed. It fluctuates too greatly to be considered a good source. As for price, Amazon currently lists AVP for $27.95 (http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000K0YLLY) while DDD lists the same exact disc as $32.93 (http://www.deepdiscount.com/Alien-vs--Predator--Blu-ray-Disc--Blu-ray_stcVVproductId7254219VVcatId462363VVviewprod.htm). To me, that is a hell of a difference. Sure, that's just one example, but for constancy, Amazon can't be beat.

For DVDs, they are the best (especially during their 20% off sales). But for HD stuff, I stay far away from them.

You can't just pick one worst case scenario and claim it indicates a trend. Like I said, Amazon has better prices on about 25% of available discs (Babel is another example where Amazon is cheaper). And not everyone has the 10% discount or subscribes to Prime, so I think they must be excluded.

However, for the majority of flicks DDD is cheaper.

16 Blocks $25.96 vs. $26.93
50 First Dates $22.21 vs. $22.93
Aeon Flux $21.72 vs. $22.93
AvP $32.93 vs. $27.95
All the King's Men $27.15 vs. $27.25

And so forth and so on (these were just the first five alphabetically off the list). Just go down the list and you will see that DDD is almost always cheaper than Amazon. If you send them an e-mail about the AvP price, they will usually match or beat it too.

Is this chit-chat to kill time until more VideoScan data get released? ;)

Absolutely. Here is the data as we currently have it. I am taking numbers directly from sources that you have provided.

1. Videoscan seems to indicate BD sales since inception is ahead of HD DVD. HMM is the source.

2. This information is corraborrated by Sony. They say that BD has sold 439,000 movies so far to 438,000 for HD DVD.. Sony is source of this.

Sony's press release about disk sales is totally in-line with Videoscan.

3. ISony has shipped/sold over 1M PS3 Players. Sony's own press release is the source of this.

4. Based on data provided by Sony themselves, we have 2 PS3 for every BD movie sold!

5. Sony claims that their PS3 + BDP-1 have now captured 40% of the BD player market.. This is based on Sony's own press release. So, given there is 1M PS3 players, it would imply there are 2.5 M players sold from Samsung, Pio, Panny and Philips.

6. Putting this altogether we have 439,000 BD movies sold along with 3.5M BD players! I would expect the ratios to be reveresed. But the data says what it says.

7. We can further confuse this by putting in NPD's own findings that by Dec. HD DVD and BD players sold about the same number of units (exclusing the xbox add on and the PS3). Since, it's safe to assume that IF Sony is speaking the truth, that by Dec we probably had around 1M standalone BD players, there must have been 1M Tosh players sold as well!!!!

If you go strictly by data, that is what the story is :D

Seems to be here:
http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

It seems to update by the hour, you get graphs of the status, you can adjust time periods of graphs. I have been watching this weekly since HD-DVD was well ahead, there was a large bump in favor of Blu Ray and it seems to be leveling again.

It is still very close.

That site is commonly cited here as a secondary source of information. Most people don't consider it as authoritative as NPD or Nielson estimates, but more in line with the DVDEmpire charts.

A few notes about that site:

1. You can only determine who is ahead there, you can't really determine trends. That is because it tracks ranking, not absolute sales. So if BD's top seller went from 10 to 5, while HD DVD's top seller remained at 4, we wouldn't know whether the gap in absolute sales had increased, decreased, or stayed the same. In other words, there is no linear relationship in the rankings, such that 4 doesn't represent half the sales of 2, and the difference between 2 and 3 may be greater than the difference between 3 and 15. So a trend in rankings does not equal a trend in absolute sales volume.

2. It only reflects Amazon sales, and not BM or other sales.

For those reason, most people find that site useful, but not as authoritative as Nielsons or NPD.

If you go strictly by data, that is what the story is :D


Haha :)

AvP $32.93 vs. $27.95

...
go down the list and you will see that DDD is almost always cheaper than Amazon.

I didn't check them all, but I know this one is backwards. DDD is the $32.93 while Amazon is $27.95.

If you go strictly by data, that is what the story is :D

http://i63.photobucket.com/albums/h123/awmurray/BaghdadBob.jpg

"Oh, ****. You win."

I didn't check them all, but I know this one is backwards. DDD is the $32.93 while Amazon is $27.95.

How is it backwards? The first price is DDD and the vs. price is Amazon. As you can see on four of the first five discs alphabetically, DDD is cheaper than Amazon. I just posted the exact same numbers that you posted, so how is mine backwards?

Haha :)

Yep, using those data points, doesn't it mean that there are BD standalones out there with ZERO discs attached to them. :D I guess after paying that much for a player, they couldn't afford any discs!

How is it backwards?

Sorry... I thought all of those listed were cheaper at DDD...

I think that something important is also being overlooked by many people. With two infant formats like BD and HD-DVD, there is likely to be very inconsistent reporting of sales. Even Nielson and other such groups can have wildly varying data.

Lets say you have two trusted groups (Firm A and Firm B) that track point of purchase sales. Let's also assume that three major B&M's account for 60% of sales of the two format's discs: Let's say Circuit City, Best Buy, and Fry's.

Well, if Firm A gets data from BB and CC, they may likely see an entirely differnt trend from Firm B, who tracks Frys and BB. The reason is because up until recently, Circuit City only sold BD. So Firm A has a store that sells lots of BD discs and HD-DVD discs, with a second source that sells zero HD-DVD discs and lots of BD discs. So when you compile the results, BD is way ahead by their estimates. However, Firm B has two stores that sell lots of both formats, so their estimate shows two formats that are very close in sales.

Firm A may even start seeing a surge in sales for HD-DVD because stores that previously were BD exclusive, start selling HD-DVD (taking business away from Fry's, which they never reported on), so suddenly the numbers jump in that column, and appear as a huge sales surge, even though the number of units sold remains constant. No surge exists, despite what appears in the data.

At this point, the volumes are just too low, and both formats are carried by far to few outlets, to start predicting any kind of trends. Just something everyone should keep in mind.

Absolutely. Here is the data as we currently have it. I am taking numbers directly from sources that you have provided.

1. Videoscan seems to indicate BD sales since inception is ahead of HD DVD. HMM is the source.

2. This information is corraborrated by Sony. They say that BD has sold 439,000 movies so far to 438,000 for HD DVD.. Sony is source of this.

Sony's press release about disk sales is totally in-line with Videoscan.

3. ISony has shipped/sold over 1M PS3 Players. Sony's own press release is the source of this.

4. Based on data provided by Sony themselves, we have 2 PS3 for every BD movie sold!

5. Sony claims that their PS3 + BDP-1 have now captured 40% of the BD player market.. This is based on Sony's own press release. So, given there is 1M PS3 players, it would imply there are 2.5 M players sold from Samsung, Pio, Panny and Philips.

6. Putting this altogether we have 439,000 BD movies sold along with 3.5M BD players! I would expect the ratios to be reveresed. But the data says what it says.

7. We can further confuse this by putting in NPD's own findings that by Dec. HD DVD and BD players sold about the same number of units (exclusing the xbox add on and the PS3). Since, it's safe to assume that IF Sony is speaking the truth, that by Dec we probably had around 1M standalone BD players, there must have been 1M Tosh players sold as well!!!!

If you go strictly by data, that is what the story is :D

:)

:confused:

:rolleyes: :D ;) :o :( :mad:

:eek:

Maxine, get my therapist on the line!

Plazman I wouldn't waste any time trying to reconcile these disparate reports with one another, because no doubt it will lead us to nowhere.

I say we just wait for the next Nielsen numbers and take it from there. If we try to work Videoscan vs corporate announcement vs NPD, we're just going to be left in utter confusion.

At this point, the volumes are just too low, and both formats are carried by far to few outlets, to start predicting any kind of trends. Just something everyone should keep in mind.

This is true, to an extent. Surely, if we see Blu-ray starting to pull away gradually, that trend could easily be reversed by a decrease in quality Blu-ray releases and an increase in quality HD DVD releases. But, if we see a reversal in trend (ex: if the upcoming data does show Blu-ray take the lead from HD DVD in SI), then it does show something important, and predictions can be made. Reversing trends is not something that happens all the time; they can be logically used to point dramatic changes in sales.

Like-wise, we can compare known historic data to current data to develop trends. For instance, we know HD DVD came out first and had 100% of the market (however small the unit sales actually were) on a week by week basis. Once Blu-ray was released, we knew that this would no longer be correct (Blu-ray would sell some), but to what extend we didn't know. Once we found out that Blu-ray had surpassed HD DVD in sales on a week by week basis (reported by Fox at CES and confirmed by recent Videoscan data), that was significant. Not in how much different in sales are, but rather that the historic trend of HD DVD selling more has changed.

If the upcoming data confirms that Blu-ray has sold more discs than HD DVD since inception, that is a reverse in trends and is significant. Beyond that, its just something to talk about.

Percentage of total Hi-Def sales:

Format:

Blu-Ray: HD-DVD

Week: 51.83% 48.17%

Month: 60.57% 39.43%

Year: 57.27% 42.73%http://www.dvdempire.com/index.asp?userid=99365291527966&tab_id=61&site_id=68&site_media_id=0

Last week the Feb number was at 69.93 % Blu-ray 30.07% HD DVD

http://i175.photobucket.com/albums/w145/columbine420/Captured.jpg

^^ That's a heck of a swing.

Was it only Hollywoodland out for that week?

last week HD DVD closed back on Blu-ray in weekly sales

Blu-ray still leads, but it closed to a few points

15% swing between last week and this week :eek:


Percentage of total Hi-Def sales:
HD-DVD Blu-ray

Week of Feb. 06th 48.17% 51.83%

Week of Jan. 30th 33.33% 66.67%
Week of Jan. 23rd 41.99% 58.01%
Week of Jan. 16th 45.83% 54.17%
Week of Jan. 09th 43.87% 56.13%
Week of Jan. 02nd 49.32% 50.68%
Week of Dec. 26th 43.11% 56.89%
Week of Dec. 19th 35.38% 64.62%

http://www.dvdempire.com/index.asp?userid=99365291527966&tab_id=61&site_id=68&site_media_id=0

^^ That's a heck of a swing.

Was it only Hollywoodland out for that week?Well there current bestsellers list shows Hollywoodland preorders for HD DVD on top.

http://www.dvdempire.com/Exec/v4_bestsellerpage.asp?
swit=1&userid=99365291527966

(but it also shows the Eagles, Earth Wind and Fire, James Taylor, and Toto not to mention the ever favorite Exotic Salt Water Aquarium in the top seller list :rolleyes: )

Well there current bestsellers list shows Hollywoodland preorders for HD DVD on top.

http://www.dvdempire.com/Exec/v4_bestsellerpage.asp?swit=1&userid=99365291527966

So they booked the Feb 6 release of Hollywoodland in their numbers. That explains it.

Nothing else of consequence seems to have been released on Feb 6.

It appears pre-orders getting booked are going to dominate weekly numbers going forward.

Gary

I guess Superman still rules HD DVD sales, in one way or another.

Yep, using those data points, doesn't it mean that there are BD standalones out there with ZERO discs attached to them. :D I guess after paying that much for a player, they couldn't afford any discs!

HAHAHAHAHAAAAA CLASSIC.

Thats soo funny. Just trust us and don't question the numbers we make up or the logic we invent to get to them you anti-Sony SOB's hahaa.

Soooo, funny.

If and when we can find some sort of reliable numbers I might be interested in what they look like for all of 2007. This day by day/week by week stuff is insane.

As long as Universal, Paramount and WB and the rest stay firmly in support of HD-DVD then that is really the only "data" that counts as they know the real numbers and those are how many of this movie in each format (universal asside) did I sell.

If they keep releaseing HD-DVD's then you know that either HD-DVD is ahead, holding its own or at the very least selling enough to warrant the release with means Blu-Ray has not won anything yet.

I expect that as the year progresses we will be speaking more and more of the cheap Chineese HD-DVD players and the HD-DVD verion of the PS3 to the market. Once they start hitting and J6P starts buying movies then I don't care how many coppies of X3 Blu-Ray they have sold.

Cheers,

Richard

I expect that as the year progresses we will be speaking more and more of the cheap Chineese HD-DVD players and the HD-DVD verion of the PS3 to the market. Once they start hitting and J6P starts buying movies then I don't care how many coppies of X3 Blu-Ray they have sold.

Cheers,

Richard

Meanwhile, back on the planet Earth...

I can almost smell the hair color and hear the whine of a row of dryers. :) Barbershop or Salon? :p

This is true, to an extent. Surely, if we see Blu-ray starting to pull away gradually, that trend could easily be reversed by a decrease in quality Blu-ray releases and an increase in quality HD DVD releases. But, if we see a reversal in trend (ex: if the upcoming data does show Blu-ray take the lead from HD DVD in SI), then it does show something important, and predictions can be made. Reversing trends is not something that happens all the time; they can be logically used to point dramatic changes in sales.

Like-wise, we can compare known historic data to current data to develop trends. For instance, we know HD DVD came out first and had 100% of the market (however small the unit sales actually were) on a week by week basis. Once Blu-ray was released, we knew that this would no longer be correct (Blu-ray would sell some), but to what extend we didn't know. Once we found out that Blu-ray had surpassed HD DVD in sales on a week by week basis (reported by Fox at CES and confirmed by recent Videoscan data), that was significant. Not in how much different in sales are, but rather that the historic trend of HD DVD selling more has changed.

If the upcoming data confirms that Blu-ray has sold more discs than HD DVD since inception, that is a reverse in trends and is significant. Beyond that, its just something to talk about.

Not really. All the data may mean is that Nielsen has accounts with more retailers that support Blu-ray more (or exclusively) than HD-DVD. Remember that they only cover about 60% of potential B&M outlets. Of that 60%, we don't even know what percentage of that 60% actually even sells BD or HD-DVD discs. When looking for a trend, you would typically cross those results with other unbiased third party data sources. However, currently the trends and numbers from these data gatherers don't correspond with each other. Mainly because volumes are too low and not enough retailers are serious about carrying the format.

You are looking for meaning and trends, where none really exist yet. Just like my Circuit City example, here is another example where these early attempts to trend can go wrong. When my local Meijer first started to carry hi-def discs, they had 30 BD titles and 10 HD-DVD titles. The reason for the difference had nothing to do with demand or sell through. The BD group had paid Meijer for the space to install three endcap hangars to carry their product (10 titles each). Likewise, the HD-DVD group only paid for one end cap hangar. If the same was true across the country, the any data reported to Nielsen may show BD selling 3X as much as HD-DVD at Meijers stores (naturally they would sell better, because they had a bigger selection). However, after their time on the paid space was up (at the end of December), Meijer mixed both formats in with regular DVD's. If they carry hi-def formats in the future, it won't be because one company paid more for space, but rather, because one sells better than the other. They can increase selection of either format, or decrease it, depending on what their sales figures justify.

The end result though is that initial figures can be skewed because of promotional tactics such as this. We don't know how skewed it might possibly be, because we don't know how many discs are in stores because they sell, and how many are there because someone paid for them to be there. We don't know how many retailers carried one format exclusive of the other. And even if we knew these things, we don't know which retailers are monitored by groups like Nielsen or NPD, and how their data is effected by such tactics. For all we know, Nielsen might only get data from places like Sam Goody or Ovation where prices are marked at full MSRP. The volumes that Nielsen tracks could be so low that any trend we see might be produced by just a few thousand disc sales. Maybe this is why Nielsen only releases a percentage, and not an actual number of units. Maybe SCEA is right with their 439,000 BD sales figure. Maybe these are all the disc sales that Nielsen has tracked. It could be that nearly 3 million combined discs have actually sold, but Nielsen's "60%" can only account for 900,000 of those.

I think it is silly to try to say a trend exists until you are able to walk into ANY store that carries DVD, and find a selection of HD-DVD and BD discs. Sales of BD and HD-DVD combined are about .5% of DVD, and until that figure increases by at least an order of magnitude, I don't think we can find any meaningful trends.

It's three days into the week those DVDempire numbers quote; I mention this only because I expect that the gap will widen in Blu-Ray's favor before the week is out.

I would point to the posts a couple of pages ago dealing with HD DVD's initial lead this month, two days into the month, which quickly reversed themselves.

The end result though is that initial figures can be skewed because of promotional tactics such as this. We don't know how skewed it might possibly be, because we don't know how many discs are in stores because they sell, and how many are there because someone paid for them to be there. Promotional service and advertising isn't a method of messing with sales figures, it's business. Saying figures are skewed by better stocking and advertising is ridiculous.

If Coke sells better than Pepsi in 60% of grocery stores because they have an endcap, more cans and bottles in stock, and better advertising, would you say that the Coke vs. Pepsi sales numbers are worthless?

It's three days into the week those DVDempire numbers quote; I mention this only because I expect that the gap will widen in Blu-Ray's favor before the week is out.

I would point to the posts a couple of pages ago dealing with HD DVD's initial lead this month, two days into the month, which quickly reversed themselves. No. They last changed the weekly figures 7 days ago. They stayed constant for one week. The last figures before that were unchanged for one week, as were the figures the week before. Its not a day to day snapshot of the weeks sales, its an historical reporting of the last 7 days Friday through Thursday.

They have a pattern of using new 7 day reporting periods to update their data. Some of those weeks may fall between months.

The monthly figures and the yearly figure changed in the same pattern, as teh week ot week sales periods weer added.

Those numbers were the complete sales for the last 7 day period reported.

Now they last changed them 7 days ago. The last figures were unchanged for one week, as were the figures the week before. Its not a day to day snapshot of the weeks sales, its an historical reporting of the last 7 days Friday through Thursday.

Those numbers were the complete sales for the last 7 day period reported.

Hmmm, I don't think so.

I think it's real-time data updated regularly throughout the week that describes, in this case, the week beginning February 6th. And the weeks reported are Tuesday through Monday I believe, not Friday through Thursday.

So they booked the Feb 6 release of Hollywoodland in their numbers. That explains it.

Nothing else of consequence seems to have been released on Feb 6.

It appears pre-orders getting booked are going to dominate weekly numbers going forward.

Gary

Couldn't the re-stocked A2's have generated more new-owner sales?

Not really. All the data may mean is that Nielsen has accounts with more retailers that support Blu-ray more (or exclusively) than HD-DVD. -snip- I don't think we can find any meaningful trends.

There needs to be a rule added to this thread stating that you must check your conspiracy theories at the door. Nielsen is an unbiased source of data (as far as we know) so speculating that they would select retailers which favored Blu-ray over retailers which favor HD DVD is ridiculous. This data is provided with the assumption that all variables are equal between the formats - whether that be sales space or retailer participation. If you start hunting for possible discrepancies, you are going to find them. If those discrepancies or valid or even logical is something that can not be determined and only lead to finding even more possible discrepancies.

Look, if you can't buy an HD DVD in a store that sells Blu-ray, then tough. That is up to Toshiba to make sure that their product is visible to consumers. It it not for Nielson to discriminate against stores for not advertising equaly, or worse, hunt for stores which do. Isolating data will give you worse results then taking it in total.

You can only sell a product that is made available to consumers. If your excuse for these numbers is that the product is not being made available, then that is a valid factor in sales data, and should not be ignored. But, it also does not invalidate the data gather, is it merely an explanation of the data (similar to pointing out that snow shovel sales increase in the winter; law sprinklers don't lag in sales because they get less advertising - only because the snow shovel is wanted more by consumers).

Hmmm, I don't think so.

I think it's real-time data updated regularly throughout the week that describes, in this case, the week beginning February 6th. And the weeks reported are Tuesday through Monday I believe, not Friday through Thursday. Lets check.

I now think the week reported is Wed-Tues.

But I think its a weekly accumulation, not a rolling update., At least not on the weekly chart. I don't think the ticker on the right side of the page updates real time either.

The week of Febuary 6th numbers on their weekly sales chart just got updated today. That is now posted as historical data. Other weeks on that chart stayed the same once they were posted. I think that's data posted through the end of the day on Tuesday Febuary 6th. (ie a Wed through Tues sales week) makes sense to me becasue most new releases come out on Tuseday IIRC.

Couldn't the re-stocked A2's have generated more new-owner sales? That's my thought too. But I need to see Amazon sales trend tick upward for me to be sure about that.

Plazman I wouldn't waste any time trying to reconcile these disparate reports with one another, because no doubt it will lead us to nowhere.


Finally, something I can agree with 100%.


I say we just wait for the next Nielsen numbers and take it from there. If we try to work Videoscan vs corporate announcement vs NPD, we're just going to be left in utter confusion.

The assumption is that the Nielson numbers are somehow more accurate than the other discredited numbers. That could be a stretch.

Lets check.

I now think the week reported is Wed-Tues.

But I think its a weekly accumulation, not a rolling update., At least not on the weekly chart. I don't think the ticker on the right side of the page updates real time either.

The week of Febuary 6th numbers on their weekly sales chart just got updated today. That is now posted as historical data. Other weeks on that chart stayed the same once they were posted. I think that's data posted through the end of the day on Tuesday Febuary 6th. (ie a Wed through Tues sales week) makes sense to me becasue most new releases come out on Tuseday IIRC.

My guess would be their reporting week starts with Tuesday to coincide with release day.

Lets check.

I now think the week reported is Wed-Tues.

But I think its a weekly accumulation, not a rolling update., At least not on the weekly chart. I don't think the ticker on the right side of the page updates real time either.

The week of Febuary 6th numbers on their weekly sales chart just got updated today. That is now posted as historical data. Other weeks on that chart stayed the same once they were posted. I think that's data posted through the end of the day on Tuesday Febuary 6th. (ie a Wed through Tues sales week) makes sense to me becasue most new releases come out on Tuseday IIRC.

I went through this earlier in the thread. I originally thought it was for the week ending on the given date as well, but now I believe it's the contrary.

It's as simple as this - if the data changes for the week of Feb 6th between now and the 13th, I'm right and it's the week beginning. If it doesn't, then you're right and it's the week ending.


The assumption is that the Nielson numbers are somehow more accurate than the other discredited numbers. That could be a stretch.

Not about being accurate or not, so much as being a trend indicator that will appear every single week to give us a glimpse of insight. What filters we choose to apply to that data as rational human beings is another matter entirely, but at least this can form the lynchpin for future apples-to-apples comparisons.

Couldn't the re-stocked A2's have generated more new-owner sales?

Bingo! :D

That A2 price war online helps too.

There needs to be a rule added to this thread stating that you must check your conspiracy theories at the door. The point some are making is that the current volumes are so low compared to regular DVD player or disc sales that the normally reporting methods are inaccurate or unreliable or more volatile than usual.

Its not so much a conspiracy, but that its too early to make grand pronouncements on either side because the HD sales are still small and immature in volume.

It's as simple as this - if the data changes for the week of Feb 6th between now and the 13th, I'm right and it's the week beginning. If it doesn't, then you're right and it's the week ending. Totally agree.

Its not you or me being wrong or right , its us both trying to accurately understand their methodology.

Bingo! :D

That A2 price war online helps too.

Unless all HD DVD retailers are complete idiots, price wars are always the sign of too much supply chasing too little demand.

Gary

Bingo! :D

That A2 price war online helps too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWWHi7aYTyU

Unless all HD DVD retailers are complete idiots, price wars are always the sign of too much supply chasing too little demand.

Gary Not in the first weeks of a product launch.

They also could be a sign of nice dealer margins that give room for discounts. :)

Or other factory discounts or dealer rebates. In the latest Toshiba $200 off HD DVD HDTV promotion, dealers were given additional incentive payments.

This could just be a sign that Toshiba is started to give promotional dollars to the retail channel to encourage sales.

Not in the first weeks of a product launch.

They also could be a sign of nice dealer margins that give room for discounts. :)

Or other factory discounts or dealer rebates. In the latest Toshiba $200 off HD DVD HDTV promotion, dealers were given additional incentive payments.

This could just be a sign that Toshiba is started to give promotional dollars to the retail channel to encourage sales.

I forgot about the $200 rebate, it was on the front page of the Fry's ads.

I believe Robert was saying that at $369, that A2 on Amazon was very close to dealer cost.

Promotional service and advertising isn't a method of messing with sales figures, it's business. Saying figures are skewed by better stocking and advertising is ridiculous.

If Coke sells better than Pepsi in 60% of grocery stores because they have an endcap, more cans and bottles in stock, and better advertising, would you say that the Coke vs. Pepsi sales numbers are worthless?


If I pay the grocery $10,000 to put Coke on the end of the isle and stock 3X as much as Pepsi, and while I do that Coke sales are marginally better (not by 3X as much though). However, if as soon as a I stop paying, Coke and Pepsi sales become even again, then yes, I would say that the sales numbers were worthless while I was paying $10,000. The reason, the $10,000 was paying to take space away from my competitor for me to use, and I could only sustain that performance level while paying $10,000 out of pocket. As soon as I could no longer afford to pay that, and space allotted was back to 50/50, then true supply and demand was represented. While I was paying, it was creating an artificial supply and demand.

Same thing at Meijers. They said we will stock no HD-DVD or BD products. Then both formats said, "What if we pay you?" Meijer said, sure, we will give you shelf space if you pay us, and it costs $X for X amount of space. True sales could be reflected in this situation, but they equally may not be. I went there a few times looking for a copy of Aeon Flux on HD-DVD. They didn't have it on HD-DVD, but they did on BD. Why? Because BD was paying them to stock 3X the number of titles. If HD-DVD had done the same (both supplies equal), then they may have had that HD-DVD, they would have had a HD-DVD sale. So their actual sales don't reflect their true potential sales because product is only being represented based on how much is paid, and not based on actual customer demand. This is essentially a skewing of the data, which depending on volume, may skew the results of someplace like Nielsen, if they collected Meijer's data.

Are you saying someplace like Circuit City, that didn't sell HD-DVD at all, was not skewing their sales results in favor of Blu-ray by not carrying HD-DVD? Are you saying their sales data represents the true demand of their customers with 100% of sales being BD and 0% being HD-DVD? If so, then you must also be claiming that now that they do carry HD-DVD, they will sell 0 copies, because the past sales data wasn't skewed and represented the true demand of their customers.

Further, I may pay $10,000 to put Coke on display, but only sell $9000 worth of Coke. I've lost money doing so, even though I may have sold more than Pepsi. However, Pepsi made a profit and I experienced a loss despite higher sales. So how are my higher sales actually representing the success of my business in this case?

The DVDEmpire numbers were like this last week. Consumers at DVDEmpire tends to stock up on preorders. DVDEmpire do not count preorders as sales but they do ship new releases for the coming week on Fridays. Those new numbers are usually added and posted the following Saturday. For next week, there are 12 new Blu-Ray releases vs 1 new HD DVD release. The numbers for these new releases will be added this Saturday.

So the usual trend at DVDEmpire is the side with more upcoming releases tend to do better at the end of the week when the new release numbers are added. With a lot of consumers stocking up on preorders, the beginning of the week tend to be slanted towards the side with fewer upcoming releases ...if that makes sense at all.

There needs to be a rule added to this thread stating that you must check your conspiracy theories at the door. Nielsen is an unbiased source of data (as far as we know) so speculating that they would select retailers which favored Blu-ray over retailers which favor HD DVD is ridiculous. This data is provided with the assumption that all variables are equal between the formats - whether that be sales space or retailer participation. If you start hunting for possible discrepancies, you are going to find them. If those discrepancies or valid or even logical is something that can not be determined and only lead to finding even more possible discrepancies.

Look, if you can't buy an HD DVD in a store that sells Blu-ray, then tough. That is up to Toshiba to make sure that their product is visible to consumers. It it not for Nielson to discriminate against stores for not advertising equaly, or worse, hunt for stores which do. Isolating data will give you worse results then taking it in total.

You can only sell a product that is made available to consumers. If your excuse for these numbers is that the product is not being made available, then that is a valid factor in sales data, and should not be ignored. But, it also does not invalidate the data gather, is it merely an explanation of the data (similar to pointing out that snow shovel sales increase in the winter; law sprinklers don't lag in sales because they get less advertising - only because the snow shovel is wanted more by consumers).

BD fans seem so edgy. Did I say Nielsen targeted retailers based on if they sold BD or HD-DVD? No, I did not. Likely the retailers they use are the same ones they have used for years for DVD. Now some of these retailers may only sell BD, some may only sell HD-DVD, some may sell both, and some may sell neither.

So Nielsen may not even represent 60% of the market. If only 50% of their retailers sell a hi-def format, then Nielson may only represent 30% of the market.

Both formats are too early in their product life, and neither have established themselves as a retail presence. The volumes are just to low. Some retailers haven't even decided what formats they want to sell, i.e. Circuit City. The current market is too volitale and too small for anyone to take away any meaningful trends.

It isn't a conspiracy theory. It's a fact of how the system works.

You are also wrong that there is any assumption of sales space being equal, or anything else for that matter. Nielsen has an agreement with retail partners to count their barcode scans. Nielsen has no input into how they do business. Nielsen just reports the barcode scans. If the wrong group is being sampled, or if a large number of sales occur somewhere they aren't sampling, then the results won't reflect the actual market.

At least you are willing to admit there are descrepencies. Why you want to turn a blind eye to the consequences of what these descreprencies might mean, on a product that has such a low volume, is beyond me.

The thing no stats are going to tell you, at least right away, is the profit margin.

If Sony subsidizes studio's production cost on disks, buys up end caps, pays for special buy1 get one free sales, their profits go down, but sales go up. Then they have some numbers to crow about, and give the appearance of consumers choosing BD because they think it's already winning or it wouldn't be in so many places.

It's the kind of thing a company as huge as Sony can do because their pockets are so deep.

So in the short term they are buying themselves the appearance of some success.

Me thinks, it just means that the volume of BD and HD DVD sales are just too small...

Hong.

Hmmm, I don't think so.

I think it's real-time data updated regularly throughout the week that describes, in this case, the week beginning February 6th. And the weeks reported are Tuesday through Monday I believe, not Friday through Thursday.


DVDEmpire Weekly percentages are updated once a week, if that is the question.

DVDEmpire Weekly percentages are updated once a week, if that is the question. That was the question.

They were just updated this morning today , Thursday , Febuary 8th for the week ending Tuesday, Febuary 6th. The monthly and yearly stats were updated today also.

One question is whether the months stats are consisting of 28 or 35 day months (even 4 or 5 week months) or based on actual first through last day monthly stats. For example, in broadcast media sales, the months are broken into even 7 day weeks.

http://www.rab.com/public/research/2007BroadcastCalendar.pdf

I would guess here that aren't that precise and their stats would be calendar months and so the 7 day weekly period stats would overlap the calculation of some months.

Political posts removed.

DVDEmpire Weekly percentages are updated once a week, if that is the question.

That is the question, but I don't think that's the answer.

The last documented update was on Saturday (or was it Sunday?) - the posts are here in this thread, and the change happened before our eyes. For the most recent change to be today doesn't sync with once a week.

So, I for one am going to bother to check these figures regularly from here on to the 13th, and that will provide us with a definitive answer seperate from everything else.

Let's look at another way in which predicting trends based on the limited volume of sales could go horribly wrong.

Let's take SCEA's word when they report 439,000 BD discs sold vs. 438,000 for HD-DVD. Let's assume that they have access to the actual Nielsen unit numbers, and this is what they are reporting. If so, the next HMM magazine should show a ratio of around 100/100.

However, lets also take Nielsen/Toshiba/Microsoft/Warner at their word too. We have an average attach rate of 8.4 discs per player and 175,000 players as of Dec. 31st. This would mean over 1.47 million HD-DVD discs sold.

This would mean that Nielsen is only capturing ~30% of HD-DVD's actual sales. What we wouldn't know is what percentage of BD sales are being captured. Anything more than ~30% means Nielsen's data is skewed. Nielsen is obviously missing many HD-DVD sales, but are the missing just as many BD sales? If they were catching ~50% of BD sales, it would mean that despite Nielsen showing BD ahead, HD-DVD would actually still be ahead. If the Nielsen data was skewed in any way (paid endcaps, dispraportionate ratio of format exclusive retailers, etc.), then the reported lead, or any trend based on the data, could be completely incorrect. It would even be possible for Nielsen to show one trend, while the reverse was actually true.

Until retailer penetration of HD formats increases, and until sales volumes increase by an order of magnitude, then I don't think any meaningful trends can be garnered from the data. Things like Nielsen numbers are just a curiousity that don't mean much, if anything.

Wnorris, are you sure you're talking about SCEA? I don't have that press release in front of me, but SCEA is the American Playstation division.

Wnorris, are you sure you're talking about SCEA? I don't have that press release in front of me, but SCEA is the American Playstation division.

That is what the previous link earlier in this thread pointed to. An article that said SCEA divulged these numbers. If you look back a few pages, you will see I question their authority to release disc sales figures, since they are Sony's NA game division.

But Sony has done stranger things...

From Feb. 7,

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4698&Itemid=2

Absolutely. Here is the data as we currently have it. I am taking numbers directly from sources that you have provided.

1. Videoscan seems to indicate BD sales since inception is ahead of HD DVD. HMM is the source.

2. This information is corraborrated by Sony. They say that BD has sold 439,000 movies so far to 438,000 for HD DVD.. Sony is source of this.

Sony's press release about disk sales is totally in-line with Videoscan.

3. ISony has shipped/sold over 1M PS3 Players. Sony's own press release is the source of this.

4. Based on data provided by Sony themselves, we have 2 PS3 for every BD movie sold!

5. Sony claims that their PS3 + BDP-1 have now captured 40% of the BD player market.. This is based on Sony's own press release. So, given there is 1M PS3 players, it would imply there are 2.5 M players sold from Samsung, Pio, Panny and Philips.

6. Putting this altogether we have 439,000 BD movies sold along with 3.5M BD players! I would expect the ratios to be reveresed. But the data says what it says.

7. We can further confuse this by putting in NPD's own findings that by Dec. HD DVD and BD players sold about the same number of units (exclusing the xbox add on and the PS3). Since, it's safe to assume that IF Sony is speaking the truth, that by Dec we probably had around 1M standalone BD players, there must have been 1M Tosh players sold as well!!!!

If you go strictly by data, that is what the story is :D

While noone is doubting the likelyhood of BD gaining right now there really is something very fishy about some of those numbers.

2. That HD-DVD has only sold 438.000 to date seems very unlikely. Even if ALL the 175.000 players total (that everyone seems to agree on) were sold this month I don't think 2.5 movies per player is anywhere near correct. I would say almost anyone who buys a player buys three movies within a week. Also the 175.000 was some time back and there have surely been players sold during the weeks since as well.

Just to be clear, I don't think the number of 439.000 BD is correct either.

7. Even if we assume the numbers at 2. is somehow correct then with the same attach rate BD would according to the statement about selling an equal amount of standalones (roughly 100.000 units) have sold less than 200.000 to PS3 owners. With about 1.000.000 PS3 sold that would give an attach rate of much less than 20%. It would seem likely that at least some of the PS3 owners who bought one movie would have bought more. So the number of PS3 owners who actually bought a BD movie would be around 10% or so.

This at at time when everyone and his friend is falling over trying to explain the lack of PS3 sales the last month with stories about how there are no "killer" games for another few months. So they aren't playing games on them and sure aren't watching BD either.

The BD side needs to decide which numbers they are gonna belive in and admit that some of the others are incorrect.

That is the question, but I don't think that's the answer.

The last documented update was on Saturday (or was it Sunday?) - the posts are here in this thread, and the change happened before our eyes. For the most recent change to be today doesn't sync with once a week.

So, I for one am going to bother to check these figures regularly from here on to the 13th, and that will provide us with a definitive answer seperate from everything else.

Ahh, I had assumed it was weekly because it wasn't daily. I didn't even consider they may do it every three or four days or randomly.

Not in the first weeks of a product launch.


Why is this suddenly being called by several of you "the first few weeks"?! The A2 came on the market in mid-December. That is almost TWO MONTHS ago.

What the heck is going on here? Was full production delayed another six weeks?

Gary

That is what the previous link earlier in this thread pointed to. An article that said SCEA divulged these numbers. If you look back a few pages, you will see I question their authority to release disc sales figures, since they are Sony's NA game division.

But Sony has done stranger things...

From Feb. 7,

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4698&Itemid=2

Yeah, well you are right! It's definitely SCEA that's credited there...

And that definitely is weird.

Why is this suddenly being called by several of you "the first few weeks"?!What the heck is going on here? Was full production delayed another six weeks?

Gary

They're probably just following Talkstr8t's lead

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9713617&&#post9713617

As for incentives being the reason for the low, low A2 prices. Wouldn't an important Toshiba dealer like Robert Zohn, who has done more for HD DVD sales than anyone, be in on these incentives?

His post (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9665749&&#post9665749)


This is the biggest mystery anyone could possibly imagine. Some of the prices I hear from members posting is actually below a volume dealers net cost.

To make things even harder to understand, I sometimes send these very low prices I hear about to Toshiba executives, and far more often then not the at cost or below cost sellers are not even direct Toshiba customers.


The absolute obsession so many have with the price they pay for their player is harming good solid and important retailers. And undoubtedly is a major reason a BB or CC is showing so little interest selling HD DVD decks.

Gary

As for incentives being the reason for the low, low A2 prices. Wouldn't an important Toshiba dealer like Robert Zohn, who has done more for HD DVD sales than anyone, be in on these incentives?

His post (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9665749&&#post9665749)



The absolute obsession so many have with the price they pay for their player is harming good solid and important retailers. And undoubtedly is a major reason a BB or CC is showing so little interest selling HD DVD decks.

Gary

People hit up Best Buy for their price match guarantee on many, many products, not just HD players. Sometimes they weasel out of it. Check on the other threads on this site about this.

Price is the primary concern for people. You don't just pay more for eggs, milk, Cable TV, cars etc. unless you think you are getting some other value out of it.

THE MATH JUST DOESN'T ADD UP

we continue to get unknown sampling data for the various sources, wether they are legit Co.s or amateurs deriving them from 3rd party sources.

The statistical #s can be spun to anyones advantage.

The only way we can make them jive and assign some uniformity is "if" the various collector/vendors of such data disclose:

A) where they are getting the data from (Amazon, DVDempire, BB, CC, Target, Buy.com, Etc,)

B) define what is included in the data (HD DVD combo example)

C) define the statistical parameters of the sample (made, distributed, sold, pre-ordered, etc)

D) give us some actual hard #s as a starting point, or for any defined time period.

On the premiss that we will not get this proprietary info, I'd recommend to treat "all" data as suspect (whether in BD or HD DVD favour). For all I know the Nielson data may be coming from inappropriate geographic locations and not reflecting the true "early adopter" behavior.....

On that note, anyone in AVS land have a referenceable contact in the DVD wholesale / distributer arena? Now that would really give us an idea of what is selling or being shipped..... ;)

Let's look at another way in which predicting trends based on the limited volume of sales could go horribly wrong.

Let's take SCEA's word when they report 439,000 BD discs sold vs. 438,000 for HD-DVD. Let's assume that they have access to the actual Nielsen unit numbers, and this is what they are reporting. If so, the next HMM magazine should show a ratio of around 100/100.

However, lets also take Nielsen/Toshiba/Microsoft/Warner at their word too. We have an average attach rate of 8.4 discs per player and 175,000 players as of Dec. 31st. This would mean over 1.47 million HD-DVD discs sold.

This would mean that Nielsen is only capturing ~30% of HD-DVD's actual sales. What we wouldn't know is what percentage of BD sales are being captured. Anything more than ~30% means Nielsen's data is skewed. Nielsen is obviously missing many HD-DVD sales, but are the missing just as many BD sales? If they were catching ~50% of BD sales, it would mean that despite Nielsen showing BD ahead, HD-DVD would actually still be ahead. If the Nielsen data was skewed in any way (paid endcaps, dispraportionate ratio of format exclusive retailers, etc.), then the reported lead, or any trend based on the data, could be completely incorrect. It would even be possible for Nielsen to show one trend, while the reverse was actually true.

Until retailer penetration of HD formats increases, and until sales volumes increase by an order of magnitude, then I don't think any meaningful trends can be garnered from the data. Things like Nielsen numbers are just a curiousity that don't mean much, if anything.

You are right on the money :D

So Nielsen may not even represent 60% of the market. If only 50% of their retailers sell a hi-def format, then Nielson may only represent 30% of the market.

Interesting math. You do realize that the statement carries the assumption that non-Nielsen monitored stores are more likely to carry High Def discs. If 50% of all retailers carry high def discs, and Nielsen polls 60% of all retailers, then they still are representing 60% of the market.

Only if non-Nielsen retailers made up the vast majority of high def retailers would your 30% quote be possible, and that is what I like to call, a conspiracy theory.

last week HD DVD closed back on Blu-ray in weekly sales

Blu-ray still leads, but it closed to a few points

15% swing between last week and this week :eek:

Percentage of total Hi-Def sales:
HD-DVD Blu-ray

Week of Feb. 06th 48.17% 51.83%

Week of Jan. 30th 33.33% 66.67%
Week of Jan. 23rd 41.99% 58.01%
Week of Jan. 16th 45.83% 54.17%
Week of Jan. 09th 43.87% 56.13%
Week of Jan. 02nd 49.32% 50.68%
Week of Dec. 26th 43.11% 56.89%
Week of Dec. 19th 35.38% 64.62%

http://www.dvdempire.com/index.asp?userid=99365291527966&tab_id=61&site_id=68&site_media_id=0That is a good swing in HD DVD's direction. I just looked at that site yesterday and remember it listing 66% and 69% for the top 2 in the Blu-ray column on the right side of the main Blu-ray page. So, maybe it hadn't been updated in a while.

--Darin

That is a good swing in HD DVD's direction. I just looked at that site yesterday and remember it listing 66% and 69% for the top 2 in the Blu-ray column on the right side of the main Blu-ray page. So, maybe it hadn't been updated in a while.

--Darin

Yeah, but this whole swing thing is, well, just goofy.

Plazman is onto something here.

I went through this earlier in the thread. I originally thought it was for the week ending on the given date as well, but now I believe it's the contrary.

It's as simple as this - if the data changes for the week of Feb 6th between now and the 13th, I'm right and it's the week beginning. If it doesn't, then you're right and it's the week ending.



Not about being accurate or not, so much as being a trend indicator that will appear every single week to give us a glimpse of insight. What filters we choose to apply to that data as rational human beings is another matter entirely, but at least this can form the lynchpin for future apples-to-apples comparisons.

Since they currently list a percentage for the month of February 2007, and that month is obviously not over, that would suggest that the current listing for the week of February 6 is for the week beginning February 6.

Yeah, but this whole swing thing is, well, just goofy.

Plazman is onto something here.

Goofy? That's what I thought when I saw the sales ratio for the previous week's ...

"Week of Jan. 30th 33.33% 66.67%"

A *PERFECT* (assuming rounding to two decimal digits) 2:1 ratio, what are the odds of that??? Anyways, at least we are starting to get some data ... :)

Goofy? That's what I thought when I saw the sales ratio for the previous week's ...

"Week of Jan. 30th 33.33% 66.67%"

A *PERFECT* (assuming rounding to two decimal digits) 2:1 ratio, what are the odds of that??? Anyways, at least we are starting to get some data ... :)

Yup, that too.

But these percentages careen drunkenly around week after week with wild swings.

SOMETHING is going on that is not on the up and up.

Goofy? That's what I thought when I saw the sales ratio for the previous week's ...

"Week of Jan. 30th 33.33% 66.67%"

A *PERFECT* (assuming rounding to two decimal digits) 2:1 ratio, what are the odds of that??? Anyways, at least we are starting to get some data ... :)

Easy to explain:
For the week, they sold a HD DVD copy of the Departed and a BD copy of the Departed and the Prestige.

All kidding aside, the most plausible explanation for these "goofy" swings week to week is LOW volume of total sales.

I do think the volumes are low, but not so low that we're talking about 3 movies sold; I honestly think that was just a massive fluke occurence.

Look at the other weeks, and they're definitely percentages not easily reached without at least *some* level of sales.

Why is this suddenly being called by several of you "the first few weeks"?! The A2 came on the market in mid-December. That is almost TWO MONTHS ago.

What the heck is going on here? Was full production delayed another six weeks?

Gary The initial shipments of HD A2's were actually fairly limited.

Larger quantities really didn't arrive until last week. If retail demand is brisk, as there are some indications spot shortages will exist for quite a while.

Looking at numbers from a few weeks after the holidays when sales of any format are low doesn't represent the full picture I bow to talk's lead here. :D

I think the numbers are to small yet to be consistent.

Since they currently list a percentage for the month of February 2007, and that month is obviously not over, that would suggest that the current listing for the week of February 6 is for the week beginning February 6. One would think so, but that's not the case.

I think the data is for the week ending Feb 6th.

The monthly stats add up all the monthly data when they do an update when the week ends. The weeks may end in the middle on the month so the data may not add up.

Interesting math. You do realize that the statement carries the assumption that non-Nielsen monitored stores are more likely to carry High Def discs. If 50% of all retailers carry high def discs, and Nielsen polls 60% of all retailers, then they still are representing 60% of the market.

Only if non-Nielsen retailers made up the vast majority of high def retailers would your 30% quote be possible, and that is what I like to call, a conspiracy theory.


Well, if you read my statement, it is based on the assumption that the SCEA (Sony) numbers are based on their Nielsen information. Sony either made these numbers up and are lying, or they got them from some source like Nielsen.

So my statement is based on the assumption that Sony is being truthful, but that also Nielsen/Toshiba/MS/Warner were also telling the truth with the information they provided at CES. If both parties are being truthful, it would mean that 70+% of HD-DVD's are being sold by non-Nielsen retailers.

Did you even read what I wrote? This is all in the post. Again, no conspiracy. I think you're being a bit paranoid looking for all this conspiracy stuff.

The initial shipments were actually fairly limited.

Larger quantities really didn't arrive until last week.I've seen you talking as if quantities were a huge problem even in the first half of January. Yet the quantities were more than the demand in the first 2 weeks of the year. They were listed in stock on Amazon the vast majority of the times I checked then and the bestbuy.com site kept telling me that I could go to at least 5 different stores in the Seattle area and pick one up. I went to one and there was one sitting on the shelves I could have purchased. Out of all the times I checked bestbuy.com there was one time I recall that one of the 6 stores it listed for me showed out of stock. The rest of the times they all showed up as having stock.

If the quantities were so low that it didn't count, why were they so easy to find?

--Darin

Didn't say that.

I said in stock quantities should be much higher starting about last week or this week because initial shipments weer limited in volume. They may still have been enough to meet most post holiday demand. But now as inventory is being made available retailers have an incentive to sell them.

I expect that HD A2 sales will steadily increase in volume in the next two months and then will drive upward in April or May as the HD A20 is introduced and Toshiba displays them in side by side retail displays. The MSRP will probably drop on the HD A2 when the HD A20 is introduced.

The initial shipments of HD A2's were actually fairly limited.

Larger quantities really didn't arrive until last week. If retail demand is brisk, as there are some indications spot shortages will exist for quite a while.

I was in Costco a week ago and they had about 24 of the HD-D2s (Costco version of the A2).

I was in there again today and they had 10.

So, someone's still buying these.

I was in Costco a week ago and they had about 24 of the HD-D2s (Costco version of the A2).

I was in there again today and they had 10.

So, someone's still buying these. My local Circuit City did not stock the 1st generation models but is down to their last HD A2.

They sold at least a half dozen in the last week or so at $499. Full price.

I'm just a bit confused why we are not seeing any sales response in the Amazon ratings yet. I'm getting impatient. :o

My local Circuit City did not stock the 1st generation models but is down to their last HD A2.

They sold at least a half dozen in the last week or so at $499. Full price.

I'm just a bit confused why we are not seeing any sales response in the Amazon ratings yet. I'm getting impatient. :o

I thought it did.

It's #6 now behind the Oppo and the Sony 75H and some low priced dvd players.

It used to be somewhere around the teens.

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx

Look on the 14 or 7 day trend charts for top 10, top 25, top 50, top 100, titles HD DVD versus Blu-ray.

HD DVD has rebounded off its slump in all of those baskets.

I thought it did. I meant in the disc sales chart of eproduct wars hdgamedb and dvdempire.

Looks like the upward trend is now in both dvdempire and hdbgamedb for HD DVD, somewhat in eproducts wasrs but not as clear there yet

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx

Look on the 14 or 7 day trend charts for top 10, top 25, top 50, top 100, titles HD DVD versus Blu-ray.

HD DVD has rebounded off its slump in all of those baskets.Looks like it has improved. Amazon putting "The Good Shepard" up for preorder today helped some. They list it as shipping March 2nd and themanroom said April 3rd yesterday, so I'm not sure which one it is. Also, there was some talk about the HD Sampler here and that one went up quite a bit. The eproductwars site is a little out of date as it doesn't list "The Good Shepard" for HD DVD yet.

--Darin

The thing about the Amazon rankings, (and its' derivatives at eproducts and hdgamedb) is they aren't very reliable for detecting trends. They can only tell you who is ahead. Outside of that, just because a product went from a 10 ranking to a 7 rankings, that doesn't mean it is selling any better.

If BD were ranked #5 for week 1, and #6 for week 2, while HD DVD was ranked #15 for week one, and #7 for week two, we still wouldn't know whether the sales gap was closing, opening, or remained constant.

Amazon ranking does not seem to be based off of sales - sorry. Something I learned when stalking the site pre-PS3 release. The sales ranking went in the single digits, for the Wii as well, and yet Amazon had not sold a single one, nor started a preorder. Must be some calculation that factors in page hits. The Wii and PS3 are unique, I don't think Amazon's equation factered for so much trafic on a page which didn't sell anything but it does show that it doesn't mean what people think it means. It is not impossible that something with a ranking of 4 has sold less than something with ranking of 12.

I do not think that is true.

DVD sales use the same type algorithm that Amazon uses for book sales. Its complicated, but it combines a combination of current sales, and an aging component so a large volume in one day is still somewhat considered over time.

As an example, if a book sold 1000 copies in one day and another title sold 10 copies every day for two weeks , the first title would still be ranked higher two weeks later, even though the daily sales were higher 12 out of the 14 days.

After 90 days or so, the aging component matters less and less but it still is present. That's how titles with no sales can still be above those with higher sales on that day.

It is not just the charting of daily sales volume for the title.

The sales rank of the top 10 titles just spiked upward for HD DVD on dvdwars.

Look on the 30 day button for the clearest view of the trend in the first chart.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

The sales rank of the top 10 titles just spiked upward for HD DVD on dvdwars.

Look on the 30 day button for the clearest view of the trend in the first chart.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

I'm sure that had nothing at all to do with people abusing the amazon $5 off mistake to do things like order 45 hd-dvds.

I'm sure that had nothing at all to do with people abusing the amazon $5 off mistake to do things like order 45 hd-dvds.

So I guess only HD-DVD fanboys abuse amazon? :rolleyes: No Blu-Ray owners took advantage of the error despite there being two threads in the Blu-Ray software forum about the $5 off?

So I guess only HD-DVD fanboys abuse amazon? :rolleyes: No Blu-Ray owners took advantage of the error despite there being two threads in the Blu-Ray software forum about the $5 off?

Don't be silly everything experienced a surge a sales. HD DVD just had a relatively larger increase among the movies category as a whole since they started at a lower position. Or do you really believe that a sales surge for HD DVD occurred at 11 pm ET/8 pm PT for absolutely no reason whatsoever?

Amazon numbers are pretty much meaningless IMO. The only HD-DVD doing worth a damn is The Departed yet HD-DVD practically cought up to Blu-Ray. I tried to buy a couple of Blu-Ray titles but the discount didn't work.

Its a bit larger trend than that. It shows up in everything including the sales rank of the top 10 titles.

HD DVD is just looking like it regained its previous floor after a relative slump.

Don't be silly everything experienced a surge a sales. HD DVD just had a relatively larger increase among the movies category as a whole since they started at a lower position. Or do you really believe that a sales surge for HD DVD occurred at 11 pm ET/8 pm PT for absolutely no reason whatsoever?

Err. look at the eproducts site and click on the show all links.

The highlighted phrase actually applies much more to Blu-ray sales except for the last month.:D

HD DVD has been remarkedly stable, which implies new owners are buying disks at the same or greater rate than early owners. The lack of new titles for older owners is probably holding back sales somewhat.

The hdgamedb charts also now show the same surge for HD DVD over the past three days.

Its like it only took one new title (the Departed) showing up on the 31 ranking to even up the sales stats. Its also ranked 32 on Blu-ray.

I see the numbers as reliable. Moreover, it is the best we'll ever get to the truth as they are from an unbiased, third party (no fanboys). These conspiracy theories and fuzzy logic as to why they aren't favoring what the majority of AVS members favor (HD DVD) are mind boggling.......but pure entertinment to read.

The trend is undeniable. Blu Ray has jumped ahead. Period. :D

..., I guess it could be possible. but I'm very skeptical since we haven't seen a strong Amazon or DVD empire surge as well.

But then again, if those Amazon and DVD empire numbers are a two week lagging indicator? ... :D :D

Grubert sir, I am waiting for your Videoscan numbers to appear for the week of the 28th.

:D :D :D

Looks like it has improved. Amazon putting "The Good Shepard" up for preorder today helped some. They list it as shipping March 2nd and themanroom said April 3rd yesterday, so I'm not sure which one it is.

First of all, just a little anal-retentive spelling clarification for the benefit of all:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/58/Rumunia_5806.jpg/330px-Rumunia_5806.jpg http://www.jsc.nasa.gov/Bios/portraits/shepard-alan.jpg

...............Shepherd..................................... ............... Shepard


;)

Now, The Good Shepherd is definitely scheduled for April 3:

http://homevideo.universalstudios.com/details.php?childId=36707

Grubert sir, I am waiting for your Videoscan numbers to appear for the week of the 28th.

:D :D :D

That makes it two of us. ;)

The sales rank of the top 10 titles just spiked upward for HD DVD on dvdwars.

Look on the 30 day button for the clearest view of the trend in the first chart.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/7076/salesranktime01recent14jr2.jpg

Wow, what happened last night? Matrix up for preorder or what?

Grubert sir, I am waiting for your Videoscan numbers to appear for the week of the 28th.

:D :D :D

I just checked and they aren't up yet.

I just checked and they aren't up yet.

pls don't everybody try the url trick at once. I'm on the MF. ;)

I'm going to guess the SI will show a slight lead for BD of approx 100/90 (BD/HD), And the YTD will not have closed any since the Jan 21, and in fact will have opened up a good bit. I'll guess 100/40 (BD/HD).

Anyone else want to hazard a guess?

^Sounds about right to me considering this will be counting the 1/23 releases including Saw 2-3, The Guardian etc.

http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/7076/salesranktime01recent14jr2.jpg

Wow, what happened last night? Matrix up for preorder or what?

A 400 rank jump in about a hour starting at exactly midnight? That's wierd. But, it was also wierd that the HD DVD ranking average had dropped to 1000 recently, and was 800 before the pop.

Gary

I'm going to guess the SI will show a slight lead for BD of approx 100/90 (BD/HD), And the YTD will not have closed any since the Jan 21, and in fact will have opened up a good bit. I'll guess 100/40 (BD/HD).

Anyone else want to hazard a guess?

If we are to trust the SCEA guy (which I don't - not completely), SI would be about 100/99 (BD/HD).

Price is the primary concern for people. You don't just pay more for eggs, milk, Cable TV, cars etc. unless you think you are getting some other value out of it.

Content is the primary concern for people interested in purchasing a disc player.

If price is the primary concern, they'll never go with HD discs. DVD will always be cheaper. And it is currently MUCH cheaper.

Gary

I'm going to guess the SI will show a slight lead for BD of approx 100/90 (BD/HD), And the YTD will not have closed any since the Jan 21, and in fact will have opened up a good bit. I'll guess 100/40 (BD/HD).

Anyone else want to hazard a guess?

No way BD will have pulled ahead like that in SI. If BD is lucky SI will be around 100/100. To swing it as much as you are guessing BD will need to have sold around 400,000 MORE discs in one week compared to HD-DVD. Volumes just aren't there yet for this kind of swing to be possible. If these volumes are there now, and BD grows at the rate it plans on, BD will be a multi-billion dollar seller of discs by the end of 2007.

okay, 100/99 then. What's your guess on YTD?

I'm guessing 25:75 for the week in favor of BD,YTD 20:80 in favor of BD and since inception 15 point lead for BD.

Followed with a couple of HD DVD is dead threads....

What's new? :)