Okay, last one... :)
This is the best thing you have done so far. Thank you (I think Neilsen will also thank you!).

Inaccuracies in the documents from Neilsen apart, I am getting ready to accept an apology from you when you confirm that this list indeed is from Neilsen. :) j/k (You do realize that their own mistakes don't make this list a fake, right?)
Don't feel bad for responding. I think it's an interesting debate. I'm really looking forward to his response from VS.

I tend to believe kdragon on this one.

Those are very similar to documents I have seen from Nielson in the past.

Its very believable to me that documents provided for a sales support request may have errors, I see it all the time. That looks like a internal list, that is not even purported to be accurate as of now.

Its looks to me to be exactly the kind of thing nielson would provide for an e-mail request.

I'm interested in seeing wnorris email response , but I see no conspiracy here.

I tend to believe kdragon on this one.

Those are very similar to documents I have seen from Nielson in the past.

Its very believable to me that documents provided for a sales support request may have errors, I see it all the time. That looks like a internal list, that is not even purported to be accurate as of now.

Its looks to me to be exactly the kind of thing nielson would provide for an e-mail request.

I'm interested in seeing wnorris email response , but I see no conspiracy here.
Definitely no conspiracy, but I'm sure wnorris will find one anyway. However, if there are mistakes, then it casts doubt on the accuracy of the entire document, including whether or not Amazon should be on the list.

Logic would suggest that they are less likely to make mistakes on their more major contributors, but still. It would be nice to get an email from them regarding the few, specific retailers that have been in question here.

Now that we have the list - does anyone think it could represent only a third of the sales ? Apart from Wal*Mart (who are probably not that big a seller of hidef dvds) are there any other known majors missing ?

Otherwise we have to come back to the apparent discrepancy between 1.5M shipped figure given sometimeback and the 500K or so figure given by Videoscan.


Nataraj: I don’t think there is such a big discrepancy. Can we agree

1) in principle and normal circumstances on a given day ship>ship to retailers>=reach retailers>>all sold >VS numbers
2) ship most likely means ship (sounds like a tautology), but it is an important point.
3) that we are not talking the same day so 1) does not need to hold (i.e. we don’t have shipped for Nov, not Jan. So we don’t have one end for Nov and the other for Jan.

so here is the point of all this
1.5M shipped. Did they go to retailers? Not all of them. If they did where did MS get the KONG movies to include with the add on. Where did Toshiba get the movies to distribute with their 3 free movies.

So that 1.5M ->ship to retailers must be much less. For example NPD stated close to 100k sold. By then of Jan. So obviously >100k were shipped for the add-on. These are not sales and would not be picked up by a POS mechanism and even though those movies are out there and people must be watching them (like the 500k included with the PS3) but if the intention is to try and determine VS numbers vs reality, they would not appear elsewhere either.

I would let you guys work out the rest. I promised the GF I would not work today so I should not be on the PC and don’t have an excuse to hide behind the screen

However, if there are mistakes, then it casts doubt on the accuracy of the entire document, including whether or not Amazon should be on the list.

Exactly what I was thinking. may be we would have prodded Nielsen to cleaup their list.

I don't see Future Shop

FS is owned by BB, if VS does look at Canada (has it ever stated they are NA numbers instead of US) they would most likely be included into BB

I tend to believe kdragon on this one.

Those are very similar to documents I have seen from Nielson in the past.

Its very believable to me that documents provided for a sales support request may have errors, I see it all the time. That looks like a internal list, that is not even purported to be accurate as of now.

Its looks to me to be exactly the kind of thing nielson would provide for an e-mail request.

I'm interested in seeing wnorris email response , but I see no conspiracy here.

Then if it isn't accurate as of now, how can we be sure Amazon.com reports to Videoscan, which is the question that started this whole thing? It looks to me that it is accurate to about 2002-2003. Maybe Amazon contributed in 2003, but that doesn't mean they do in 2007. And if it is a list from 2002-2003, then why are the dates changed, but the rest of the list not updated? And if it is an internal list, how can we say it is marketing material in one argument, and then say its internal iuse n the next? It can't be both and it would be an extremely sloppy piece of marketing material. If as a potential customer, I received that list, I would walk away convinced they were full of BS, or incompotent.

The other piece sent with that list was nicely done.

That list was meant as an example and not identified as current or comphrehensive.

You should see some of the materials I get sent from large companies all the time, they can get pretty flaky when they are trying to help answer a question. ;)

The material was complete enough to answer kdragons request. It was not Press Release accurate, but it probably was not intended to be discussed here as the guy responding probably didn't think about it being discussed here.

FS is owned by BB, if VS does look at Canada (has it ever stated they are NA numbers instead of US) they would most likely be included into BB

I guess you have a good question there. Is Nielsen US or all of NA? I guess this could be a cause of descrepancies in figures. Example: Toshiba said 175,000 HD-DVD drive in North America. Nielsen reported an average of 8.4 discs per player. However, was Nielsen only counting the US. The PS3 sales figures from Sony are for North America, so are BD disc sales from Nielsen US only? Does NPD track NA or US only? When SCEA says ~900,000 discs combined for both formats, is that US only. Could the rest have been sold in Canada and not counted? Or is that 900,000 number a worldwide number?

Also, if you look at Amazon.ca and Amazon.com, you will see that BD and HD-DVD discs have different rankings. This means they are obviously being tracked separately.

Will we ever be able to make heads or tails of the format war? If sales are tracked separately for the US and NA, what happens when one format is a decent lead in the US, but the other format has a decent lead in Canada and Mexico combined? Do studios go neutral then, or do they offer one format to Canada, and the other to the US?

Basically, it looks like there could be enough wiggle room for either side to spin the numbers however they want.

Basically, it looks like there could be enough wiggle room for either side to spin the numbers however they want. Right on target.

Well there aint going to be much wriggle room when THIS one launches!

The MATRIX on HD DVD !!! April 10th !!!!

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=803912&page=1&pp=30

Well there aint going to be much wriggle room when THIS one launches!

The MATRIX on HD DVD !!! April 10th !!!!

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=803912&page=1&pp=30
I think you min IF this Warner title launches before Blu-ray, don't you?

Still waiting for a little more than some theories about this mystery, Canadian launch you are purporting as fact.

Well there aint going to be much wriggle room when THIS one launches!

The MATRIX on HD DVD !!! April 10th !!!!

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=803912&page=1&pp=30

How is "Meet Joe Black" which came out Tuesday? Oh wait... they were wrong about that release date, weren't they.

:rolleyes:

How is "Meet Joe Black" which came out Tuesday? Oh wait... they were wrong about that release date, weren't they.

:rolleyes:

And Brazil was released two weeks ago! Yay! :D

And Brazil was released two weeks ago! Yay! :D
Yeah, but Colbert/wikiality clearly dictates that if rdjam posts it enough times on enough threads it will make it truthy, right?

This is getting dangerously off topic...

Has anyone noticed how the amazon rankings have tumbled for both formats over the past day or so? Currently there are only 4 titles in the top 1,100... what's going on there then? Has everyone run out of money? Everyone bought most of what they want? A glitch? SD DVD releases/pre orders taking over again? I have no idea! eproductwars seems to be down so there's no looking at stock figures either..

This is getting dangerously off topic...

Has anyone noticed how the amazon rankings have tumbled for both formats over the past day or so? Currently there are only 4 titles in the top 1,100... what's going on there then? Has everyone run out of money? Everyone bought most of what they want? A glitch? SD DVD releases/pre orders taking over again? I have no idea! eproductwars seems to be down so there's no looking at stock figures either..
Well my theory is that all those guys that were spending money of movies all of a sudden remembered what yesterday was. Then all that money that was going to movies went to flowers and dinners. So they could later get back to spending money on those movies and not sleep alone at night. :p

Well my theory is that all those guys that were spending money of movies all of a sudden remembered what yesterday was. Then all that money that was going to movies went to flowers and dinners. So they could later get back to spending money on those movies and not sleep alone at night. :p

I am not sure how Amazon works, but do they charge your card when you order Casino Royale and the two PoTC disks and the rest of the pre-orders?

Well there aint going to be much wriggle room when THIS one launches!

The MATRIX on HD DVD !!! April 10th !!!!

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=803912&page=1&pp=30

rdjam, it's a safe bet at this point to assume that The Matrix will not be released on April 10th. I guess, HD DVD is going to be stuck with more mud on their face when April 10th comes and goes without this titles being released. This is a pure rumor and is showing up on one site with no announcements from Warner. This is pure speculation. IMHO.

I am not sure how Amazon works, but do they charge your card when you order Casino Royale and the two PoTC disks and the rest of the pre-orders?

They charge when they're shipped.

I am not sure how Amazon works, but do they charge your card when you order Casino Royale and the two PoTC disks and the rest of the pre-orders?
Actually I don't know. So far I have never done a pre-order. I think though that they only charge when its shipped.

This is getting dangerously off topic...

Has anyone noticed how the amazon rankings have tumbled for both formats over the past day or so? Currently there are only 4 titles in the top 1,100... what's going on there then? Has everyone run out of money? Everyone bought most of what they want? A glitch? SD DVD releases/pre orders taking over again? I have no idea! eproductwars seems to be down so there's no looking at stock figures either.. Huge freaken snow storm? Midwest and East Coast all shoveling snow? Everyone else so happy they don't live there they been dancing in the streets? No one goes online on Valentines Day?

Seriously any national events besides the weather and Valentines Day that could affect online sales nationally?

hmmmm.....so pre-orders are not actual sales then. You don't pay for it.

hmmmm.....so pre-orders are not actual sales then. You don't pay for it.I believe the same is true for orders of things that aren't in stock. They are agreements to pay for the item, but can be cancelled before shipment (which I believe would then go against the rankings as the other way wouldn't make sense and would probably cause Amazon to get harassed with fake orders).

--Darin

So, do you guys believe that the rankings are based on shipped items only?

You know, with as few disks that are being sold daily, we could all agree to make a purchase on the same day for a film we intended to purchase anyway. Then see if that effected the rankings upon order or upon shipping since they notify upon shipping.

Never mind, that would mean we would all have to agree on something together to find out what was really going on.:)

So, do you guys believe that the rankings are based on shipped items only?Not on Amazon. I'm pretty sure it is based on orders. An order with a cancellation later really should count in the positive direction at the time the order is placed and then in the negative direction when the order is cancelled.

"The Departed" had a lot of preorders for both sides and was high up in the rankings because of that. If all those preorders shipped on Monday or Tuesday it shouldn't have affected the rankings at that point, since the orders were already included when they were booked.

--Darin

My observations are that it is based on orders, not shipping. I agree with Darinp2.

My observations are that it is based on orders, not shipping. I agree with Darinp2.

I keep meaning to try placing an order for 10 copies of a pre-order and then add 10 several times over the day and see what happens.

/carmi

Top Titles for Week Ended 2/11/2007

BD
1 Open Season
2 Reservoir Dogs
3 Flyboys
4 Saw III
5 American Psycho
6 Rambo: First Blood
7 Superman Returns
8 Black Hawk Down
9 Crank
10 The Fifth Element

HD DVD
1 Hollywoodland
2 Batman Begins
3 Superman Returns
4 V for Vendetta
5 Casino
6 Pitch Black
7 The Mummy Returns
8 Superman II: Richard Donner Cut
9 Serenity
10 Lucky Number Slevin

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

Social engineering at its best:

Data for the week ending February 4, 2007 (data still unofficial blah blah...)

YTD BD 100.00 HD 48.38
SI BD 92.56 HD 100.00

Top 5 BD
1 Open Season 100.00
2 Flyboys 83.94
3 Saw III 66.72
4 The Guardian 44.12
5 The Fifth Element 33.55

Top 5 HD DVD
1 Batman Begins 100.00
2 Troy 48.95
3 Superman Returns 45.90
4 V for Vendetta 42.41
5 Lucky Number Slevin 41.71

Social engineering at its best:

Data for the week ending February 4, 2007 (data still unofficial blah blah...)

YTD BD 100.00 HD 48.38
SI BD 92.56 HD 100.00

I really wish they would release these things at a uniform time. :)

YTD: BD 67.39% HD 32.61%
SI: BD 48.07% HD 51.93%

01/21 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
02/04 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9

Social engineering at its best:

Data for the week ending February 4, 2007 (data still unofficial blah blah...)

YTD BD 100.00 HD 48.38
SI BD 92.56 HD 100.00

Top 5 BD
1 Open Season 100.00
2 Flyboys 83.94
3 Saw III 66.72
4 The Guardian 44.12
5 The Fifth Element 33.55

Top 5 HD DVD
1 Batman Begins 100.00
2 Troy 48.95
3 Superman Returns 45.90
4 V for Vendetta 42.41
5 Lucky Number Slevin 41.71

Chart attached..

b2b

So, HD DVD won the race 2/4/07. It's going to go back and forth like this for some time.

I really wish they would release these things at a uniform time. :)

YTD: BD 67.39% HD 32.61%
SI: BD 48.07% HD 51.93%

01/21 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
02/04 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9

So even these numbers don't back up SCEA claims, which go back over a week ago. Doesn't this mean SCEA obviously didn't use Nielsen as the source of their numbers?

I thought the article about SCEA saying BD had sold 1000 more discs was published on Feb 7th (so interview/release was prepared before then). These numbers go through Feb 4th, and would have been the most recent Nielsen numbers SCEA could have had access. These numbers don't show BD with the lead, so are the SCEA numbers are BS?

Oops, nevermind. I went back to check the article again, and it has been updated to specify that NPD is the source of the numbers. So NPD data says that BD had the majority of the SI market share sometime around the 7th. Nielsen data shows that HD-DVD still has the slight SI majority during the same time frame.

Any idea what retailers NPD covers?

I really wish they would release these things at a uniform time. :)

YTD: BD 67.39% HD 32.61%
SI: BD 48.07% HD 51.93%

01/21 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
02/04 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9

These data points do show a trend of BD gaining less and less each week (SI 1.6% then 1.4% and YTD .6% and then .4%). If the trend continues, BD may pull ahead slightly, put it looks like the numbers may stabilize pretty close to even. This is of course with a pretty small batch of new HD-DVD releases. I would expect when things ramp up March and APril for both formats, thinsg may change.

So, HD DVD won the race 2/4/07. It's going to go back and forth like this for some time.

I'm not sure I follow. They continue to lose ground in both reporting spectrum. How is that a win?

These data points do show a trend of BD gaining less and less each week (SI 1.6% then 1.4% and YTD .6% and then .4%). If the trend continues, BD may pull ahead slightly, put it looks like the numbers may stabilize pretty close to even.
Yeah, HD DVD is a tenacious old dog. It just won't die! ;)

Seriously though, both formats are really giving each other a run for their money. It's been quite a ride.

So, HD DVD won the race 2/4/07. It's going to go back and forth like this for some time.
Huh?

These data points do show a trend of BD gaining less and less each week (SI 1.6% then 1.4% and YTD .6% and then .4%). If the trend continues, BD may pull ahead slightly, put it looks like the numbers may stabilize pretty close to even. This is of course with a pretty small batch of new HD-DVD releases. I would expect when things ramp up March and APril for both formats, thinsg may change.

It does appear that the market may stabilize with BD selling at a 2.5:1 ratio over HD. With this continuing as is, there is no possible way that SI will halt at 50%. For that to happen, sales would have to be equal on a weekly basis, which they are not (and appear to be moving in the opposite direction of that occurrence).

Did I misunderstand the numbers for this week?

SI: BD 48.07% HD 51.93%

It does appear that the market may stabilize with BD selling at a 2.5:1 ratio over HD. With this continuing as is, there is no possible way that SI will halt at 50%. For that to happen, sales would have to be equal on a weekly basis, which they are not (and appear to be moving in the opposite direction of that occurrence).
Right. And if this trend continues, it shouldn't be more than a couple of weeks before HD DVD is overtaken. Still, it's taking too long!!! ;)

Did I misunderstand the numbers for this week?

SI: BD 48.07% HD 51.93%
No.

But according to Neilsen, BD has never yet sold more SI.

Blu-ray still outsold HD DVD by these figures for the week but the gap was smaller. HD DVD still leads in since inception sales. The rate of closure slowed this week in the since inception sales figures.

Did I misunderstand the numbers for this week?

SI: BD 48.07% HD 51.93%

Yes. BD is currently outselling HD DVD by more than 2 to 1.

The rate of closure slowed this week. Blu-ray still outsold HD DVD by these figures.

But the YTD percentage increased.

Your right, my mistake. I keep thinking about what Sony keeps saying and then seeing the real numbers and get confused sometimes.:) They don't seem to jive.

Yes. BD is currently outselling HD DVD by more than 2 to 1.

Currently. Ahh, I see. So the total sales don't count?

I guess win was the wrong word to use. I should have said still ahead in total sales. Sorry.

Currently. Ahh, I see. So the total sales don't count?

Yes, they count, but your original post on this subject suggested that HD DVD won the week, which is not correct.

But the YTD percentage increased. Thats because Blu-ray still did outsell HD DVD this week by those figures. But the increase in the YTD advantage slowed a bit too, from .6% to .4 %. The SI gap closure went from 1.6% to 1.4%. HD DVD is still having its butt kicked in those figures.

Currently. Ahh, I see. So the total sales don't count?

I guess win was the wrong word to use. I should have said still ahead in total sales. Sorry.

They really don't. Remember that HD-DVD had quite the head start on BR. If BR passes HD-DVD in total sales since inception and also continues to beat them handily with 2.5+ sales of BD to 1 sale of HD-DVD throughout this summer it's going to be a tough winter for HD-DVD fans.

I haven't really been following this thread so sorry if I made a mistake. This a good thread by the way and I will pay better attention before I post again.

I haven't really been following this thread so sorry if I made a mistake. This a good thread by the way and I will pay better attention before I post again.

Everybody makes mistakes, but not everybody will admit it. :)

I haven't really been following this thread so sorry if I made a mistake. This a good thread by the way and I will pay better attention before I post again.
You're cool.

I think it's been determined that Sony's claim was based on slightly different figures from NPD. Most of us put a hair more stock in Videoscan, though it's accuracy is also in question.

2.5+ sales of BD to 1 sale of HD-DVD

If the 2.5:1 is for Warner or Paramount's titles, then it means bluray wins the niche/early adopters market. If the 2.5:1 is simply because of more titles was released on bluray, I would not find it very convincing.

But the big picture currently is PS3 still failed to eat into the mass market otherwise we would see > 5:1 or even 10:1 ratio given the niche sales of HD DVD. If PS3 could not gain enough momentum, HD DVD camp will have a chance to establish the format via bringing cheap CE players at least 6 month before BDA.

Let's wait for more data.

If the 2.5:1 is for Warner or Paramount's titles, then it means bluray wins the niche/early adopters market. If the 2.5:1 is simply because of more titles was released on bluray, I would not find it very convincing.

But the big picture currently is PS3 still failed to eat into the mass market otherwise we would see > 5:1 or even 10:1 ratio given the niche sales of HD DVD. If PS3 could not gain enough momentum, HD DVD camp will have a chance to establish the format via bringing cheap CE players at least 6 month before BDA.

Let's wait for more data.

A bit inconsistent with that statement. You suggest that sales are not significant because they are a result more available software, yet you say that sales will be significant if HD DVD can get out cheap players.

An advantage is an advantage no matter what. If HD DVD starts selling more titles when/if they can get even cheaper players out there, then it will be significant, just as BD selling more titles now is significant. You can sell what isn't on store shelves, and if HD DVD is playing a strategy of minimal releases, and this is the result, then you can't dismiss sales data because it does not favor your view.

A bit inconsistent with that statement. You suggest that sales are not significant because they are a result more available software, yet you say that sales will be significant if HD DVD can get out cheap players.
.

Sorry for not being very clear.

Can we all agree on that HD DVD sales is still niche/insignificant in the big picture? If so, where does that 2:1 or 3:1 lead bluray? I am saying if there is a clear sales gap between the neutral titles, then bluray has a clear win in the early adopters market. If the sales gap is just because of more titles available, then I wouldn't even find that win very convincing.

Remember PS3's goal is to establish bluray in the mass market. Early adopter's market is always a given for bluray with $500 player and 90% content support.

I didn't not say cheap CE players would result in significant sales. I said if PS3 failed to eat into the mass market first, then HD DVD camp would at least have a chance to achieve the same thing via sub $250 players.

If I were in the HD DVD camp, I might feel relax now. You couldn't control the PS3 effect anyway.

I partly agree with lymzy. BD needs to gain more momentum.

If by the end of the first half of the year BD is outselling 3:1 YTD and 1.5:1 since inception, I think they will be on track for decisive advantage by the end of the year.

I partly agree with lymzy. BD needs to gain more momentum.

If by the end of the first of the half year BD is outselling 3:1 YTD and 1.5:1 since inception, I think they will be on track for decisive advantage by the end of the year. Fully agree with you here.

If Blu-ray has those margins by July 1st, that would mean that the PS3 attach rate and numbers in aggregate are combining to buy more numbers than the HD DVD second generation players nad the Xbox HD DVD addons.

One the ohter hand, by July, HD DVD sales numbers may be accelerating if enough HD A2s are bought and new HD DVD titles aer reelased.

I think the 2nd quarter numbers will be more telling than the 1st quarter numbers.

From Monday:
And the Top 10 for the week ending February 4, given by davisdvd, from Rentrak's Home Video Essentials:

BD
1 (-) Open Season
2 (-) Flyboys
3 (4) Crank
4 (3) Saw III
5 (2) The Guardian
6 (-) Terminator 2
7 (-) Superman Returns
8 (-) Employee of the Month
9 (-) Mission Impossible Collection
10 (7 ) Gridiron Gang

HD
1 (6) Superman Returns
2 (2) Batman Begins
3 (4) V For Vendetta
4 (-) Serenity
5 (3) Lucky Number Slevin
6 (-) The Last Samurai
7 (1) Clerks II
8 (-) Fear & Loathing in Las Vegas
9 (-) Mission Impossible III
10 (7) The Mummy Returns
From today:
Social engineering at its best:

Data for the week ending February 4, 2007 (data still unofficial blah blah...)

YTD BD 100.00 HD 48.38
SI BD 92.56 HD 100.00

Top 5 BD
1 Open Season 100.00
2 Flyboys 83.94
3 Saw III 66.72
4 The Guardian 44.12
5 The Fifth Element 33.55

Top 5 HD DVD
1 Batman Begins 100.00
2 Troy 48.95
3 Superman Returns 45.90
4 V for Vendetta 42.41
5 Lucky Number Slevin 41.71It is interesting to see how these two differ with regards to "Batman Begins" and "Superman Returns" on HD DVD. As well as "Troy".

It will be interesting to see if HD DVD pulls closer in the YTD next week given that it was the week that "Hollywoodland" came out.

--Darin

Its also interesting that those two HD DVD titles have been out for awhile, and are not the newer releases, which would imply they are being bought by new HD DVD player owners and not by existing owners who've had the chance to buy them in the past.

YTD: BD 67.39% HD 32.61%
SI: BD 48.07% HD 51.93%Has anybody figured out what these likely were for the week? My back of the napkin is about 70.8/29.2, or about 2.4:1 for Blu-ray.

--Darin

I don't think so as the rate of SI closure and YTD seperation slowed down.

The sales gap for the week should have also closed, as I understand it.

If it was 68.8 to 31.2 last week, it had to be closer to 65 35 or even 60 40 this week or at least trending in that direction.

Grubert transferred the weekly figures off the PC mag articles last week, which we don't have for this week.

I think the 2nd quarter numbers will be more telling than the 1st quarter numbers.

That's fair, since there isn't a heck of a lot of competition from HD DVD this quarter. Once Universal turns the tap on again, then the real competition begins.


Can we all agree on that HD DVD sales is still niche/insignificant in the big picture? If so, where does that 2:1 or 3:1 lead bluray?


I'm not sure we actually know the numbers. But, the numbers are probably small enough that a significant turn around by HD DVD is still possible. The question would be how likely it is, and how would it occur?

Is it safe to say that little will drive excitement HD DVD until Q2 when Universal must start releasing at a sufficient rate to hit a 100 title target for this year?

Without a series of box office wins from Universal, there is few major exclusive new releases coming on HD DVD. Is it safe to say that a Warner/Paramount new release is a push in the battle, and every Fox, Sony and Disney new release is a significant benefit to BD?

Also, we have others saying that what people want are universal players, and that's where the growth is. If that is true, then things will putter along for some time. Is Universal really willing to stagnate a switch indefinitely?

Gary

I don't think so as the rate of SI closure and YTD seperation slowed down. The sales gap for the week should have also closed.

Without doing an algebraic proof, the fact that the raw change in percentages for YTD is less than for the preceding week may be due in part to the fact that so close to the begiining of the year, each succeeding week will necessarily have less of an impact on the YTD percentages.

Universal is waiting until it clearly sees the sustained impact from HD A2 and PS3 sales and much higher adoption rates. They've made their bets for this year. No reason at all for them to even consider switching until 2008 after the holiday season.

I don't think so as the rate of SI closure and YTD seperation slowed down.

The sales gap for the week should have also closed, as I understand it.

If it was 68.8 to 31.2 last week, it had to be closer to 65 35 or even 60 40 this week or at least trending in that direction.I don't think that is the case. But it does look like I made a mistake in my back of the napkin numbers in where I added things. Sorry about that. I now think this the most likely was about 68.9/31.1, or a little over 2.2:1, but unfortunately there are some rounded numbers in there (like the 67.0) that could throw that off by .2 or so on the % numbers.

Just consider the YTD numbers for a second. The numbers for the week ending January 28th added one week's worth of data out of 4. This week's added one week's worth of data out of 5. That alone should make the rate of gap closing between the weekly numbers and the YTD numbers decrease per week. So, even at 68.8/31.2 the YTD jump for BD would be likely to be less than the previous week (also because the closer they get the less gap there is to change), if BD sold about the same number of discs each week.

--Darin

I don't think that is the case. But it does look like I made a mistake in my back of the napkin numbers in where I added things. Sorry about that. I now this the most likely was about 68.9/31.1, or a little over 2.2:1, but unfortunately there are some rounded numbers in there (like the 67.0) that could throw that off by .2 or so on the % numbers.

Just consider the YTD numbers for a second. The numbers for the week ending January 28th added one week's worth of data out of 4. This week's added one week's worth of data out of 5. That alone should make the rate of gap closing between the weekly numbers and the YTD numbers decrease per week. So, even at 68.8/31.2 the YTD jump for BD would be likely to be less than the previous week (also because the closer they get the less gap there is to change), if BD sold about the same number of discs each week.

--Darin
I'm basically in agreement with you and patrick99 here. I've been thinking about this, just wanted someone else to put in the time and effort, thanks.

If the weekly gap remains roughly the same, the YTD and SI will continue to change less and less to perpetuity, 2008 for YTD.

It's kind of a logarithmic, parabolic type thing.

But, the numbers are probably small enough that a significant turn around by HD DVD is still possible. The question would be how likely it is, and how would it occur?

HD DVD is looking for survival. They must not lag too much in the early adopters market and they have to open mass market at least 1Q before bluray does. Their worst fear is PS3 would not give them the chance.

HD DVD couldn't win unless bluray replication capability couldn't catch up with demand when the market explodes. With 500k DL 007 for Europe, I don't see that happening.


Is it safe to say that little will drive excitement HD DVD until Q2 when Universal must start releasing at a sufficient rate to hit a 100 title target for this year??

Hey, I am waiting for studio defection and 1.5x/51GB approved by DVD Forum... :)


Is it safe to say that a Warner/Paramount new release is a push in the battle, and every Fox, Sony and Disney new release is a significant benefit to BD?

One would definitely think so. But what if bluray still doesn't show a sign of mass market adoption with this significant benefit and ample PS3 supply?


The studio might say let's also give HD DVD a chance. The hard work done by MS on the authoring/interactivity could only help when the time comes.


Is Universal really willing to stagnate a switch indefinitely?
Gary

If I were BDA, given the current position I wouldn't even worry about Universal defection. I would focus on polishing the interactivity/H.264 angle.

Me makes four. I agree that the rate of closure could be reduced even if the weekly sales ratio stayed exactly the same.

But do were have anyway of calculating out the weekly sales ratio, without knowing the volumes involved? Or since we do know last weeks and before weekly sales ratios is there anyway that we could back calculate the actual voulumes?

Grubert transferred the weekly figures off the PC mag articles last week, which we don't have for this week.

BTW the author of the article hinted that they might revisit the subject with new data from time to time. Maybe an email by some of you expressing your interest might help. ;)

Me makes four. I agree that the rate of closure could be reduced even if the weekly sales ratio stayed exactly the same.

But do were have anyway of calculating out the weekly sales ratio, without knowing the volumes involved? Or since we do know last weeks and before weekly sales ratios is there anyway that we could back calculate the actual voulumes?
I think the weekly ratio could be calculated. It looks like darinp2 has done it, though it's not yet verified.

I think extrapolation of volume is only possible if there is, at least one, accurate sales figure, for at least one format, for at least one period.

(also because the closer they get the less gap there is to change)
--Darin
Not 100% certain what you're saying here, but if it's what I think it is, I disagree. The SI gap will not close and stop (sorry HD DVD fans.) It will close and then move the other direction but will continue to grow slower and slower if the weekly gap remains the same.

Not 100% certain what you're saying here, but if it's what I think it is, I disagree. The SI gap will not close and stop (sorry HD DVD fans.) It will close and then move the other direction but will continue to grow slower and slower if the weekly gap remains the same.I think we agree. I didn't mean the gap between the weekly sales and 50/50, but the gap between the weekly numbers and the YTD numbers, or the gap between the weekly numbers and the SI numbers. Basically, your "It's kind of a logarithmic, parabolic type thing" applied to the difference between the runrate and the total from the beginning.

Last week the gap between the weekly and the YTD was 2.4 (from 68.8-66.4). That increased the YTD about 0.6 (which is about 1/4th of 2.4 for 4 weeks worth of data). I just guestimated that this week the gap between the weekly numbers and YTD would close about 1/5 (for 5 weeks worth of data). With it going up about .4, that would be 2.0. 69.0 is about 2.0 higher than 67.0, but I went with 68.9 as the SI numbers didn't close as much, it was .39 and not .4 by somebodies calculation and it seemed like 68.9 seemed more likely. Maybe somebody will do more complicated math, but that is my back of the napkin estimate.

--Darin

Basically, your "It's kind of a logarithmic, parabolic type thing"

--Darin
You like that? That's mathematical jargon for you lesser edjumacated types. ;)

Your napkin work sounds reasonable.

You guys are looking at effect, not cause. The number of disks sold will be driven by the number of players sold and and their attach rate. The attach rates are likely fairly consistent for component vs console owners. If the PS3 sales slump or even off, so will the BD sales, if that's the main driver for BD. If low cost HD players come out, HD sales will increase. Current sales figures are due to the newness of the PS3, which also means we have no idea of the final attach rate. IMO. Wait & See

Not 100% certain what you're saying here, but if it's what I think it is, I disagree. The SI gap will not close and stop (sorry HD DVD fans.) It will close and then move the other direction but will continue to grow slower and slower if the weekly gap remains the same.

if the weekly gap remains the same

That's the big assumption :)

You guys are looking at effect, not cause. The number of disks sold will be driven by the number of players sold and and their attach rate. The attach rates are likely fairly consistent for component vs console owners. If the PS3 sales slump or even off, so will the BD sales, if that's the main driver for BD. If low cost HD players come out, HD sales will increase. Current sales figures are due to the newness of the PS3, which also means we have no idea of the final attach rate. IMO. Wait & See
And you're looking at hypotheticals while we crunch real numbers.

You also asume that it's hardware when most believe it's the software that sells hardware.

I wish I had time to fully respond to this post, but I don't at the moment. I'm sure somone else will shortly.

That's the big assumption :)
O.K., I got the highlights the first time before you had to edit and spell them out more. :p

You're right, that is a big assumption, but just trying to make heads or tails of the math using said assumption.

What YOU'RE ASSuming is that the weekly gap won't widen in the coming months. ;)

I don't believe that its software that sells hardware.

I do think that there needs to be enough software present to validate a HD DVD player purchase decision. But any new title may not be enough to justify a decision.

But that "critical mass" of HD titles might be as low as 100 titles for some people. Sales of Batman Begins and Superman Returns indicate that new hardware buyers are buying those earllier released titles. When each format has 300 or more titles available, I think that will be enough to support a purchase decsion for most users.

Price is the critical factor I believe in hardware sales, and more hardware will indeed will sell more software.

I don't believe that its software that sells hardware.
Well you can "believe" whatever you want. They are now saying that Tom Cruise is L. Ron reincarnated. You can jump on that one too. ;)

It is a common axiom in the CE world you're debating against, but that's O.K.

Price is the critical factor I believe in hardware sales, and more hardware will indeed will sell more software.
It's possible that IF the war is not decided before quality HD DVD players get down to the $199 range, hardware may yet play a more important role.

So, HD DVD won the race 2/4/07. It's going to go back and forth like this for some time.

Whats the betting they never go back again, i.e. HD-DVD will NEVER outsell Blu-ray for any single week from now until this war is over?

Without doing an algebraic proof, the fact that the raw change in percentages for YTD is less than for the preceding week may be due in part to the fact that so close to the begiining of the year, each succeeding week will necessarily have less of an impact on the YTD percentages.
Its also the more probable reason the SI % slightly decreased.

Whats the betting they never go back again, i.e. HD-DVD will NEVER outsell's BLu-ray for any single week from now until this war is over?
A little to balzy for me. Certain releases could throw things off in that short of time.

I might take the monthly bet though, but with you, not against you.

I don't believe that its software that sells hardware.

I do think that there needs to be enough software present to validate a HD DVD player purchase decision. But any new title may not be enough to justify a decision.I believe there are single video and computer games that sell systems all by themselves. Halo for instance.

And there are certain movies which some people absolutely must own. IMO any movie or series that has a rabid fan base will sell systems. Especially if the title doesn't exist on any other platform.

I'd bet the Bond series would sell some highdef players.

I don't believe that its software that sells hardware.

I do think that there needs to be enough software present to validate a HD DVD player purchase decision. But any new title may not be enough to justify a decision.

But that "critical mass" of HD titles might be as low as 100 titles for some people. Sales of Batman Begins and Superman Returns indicate that new hardware buyers are buying those earllier released titles. When each format has 300 or more titles available, I think that will be enough to support a purchase decsion for most users.

Price is the critical factor I believe in hardware sales, and more hardware will indeed will sell more software.

Software sells hardware and hardware sell software.
That's very true for a new format.
No content and people are reluctand to buy the hardware. This is the case in region B where HD hardly made an impression yet because HD is hard to find at BM retail.

That's the old paradigm.

Today it's different.
I can buy the Toshiba HDDVD player for a good price without a need for HD software. My sole reason can be that it's an affordable player with great upscaling for SD DVD and I need the upgrade to HDMI. My previous player has DVI and is not very compliant with today's display hardware.
There is loads and loads of content I can watch on this player already.
It's a great DVD player too.

Same is true for PS3. I can buy it as a gaming machine with the added bonus of being able to play BR movies. Or vice versa.

The real battle is about getting the content into BM retail. People need to be convinced by real physical evidence that a format is going anywhere.
Advertising alone isn't going to win this format war.

There is a real risk that movie companies only stock retail with low numbers of releases and disc for the forseeable future to keep costs low before the releases gain mass market tracktion.

Sticking some HD disc in a small HD sections in stores isn't going to help.
It going to look pathetic in the sea of DVD releases. If people don't percieve a steady growth both formats could fail utterly.

A little to balzy for me. Certain releases could throw things off in that short of time.

I might take the monthly bet though, but with you, not against you.

A Matrix or Jurassic Park, with no reply from Blu-ray, could throw up an anomoly (sp), but other than that my money would be safe.

Human tendency is to believe that what is happening now will continue to happen and happen forever...

Making long term predictions based on short term trends is really hard. A really bright kid can end up a really stupid adult and vise versa :)

Well you can "believe" whatever you want. They are now saying that Tom Cruise is L. Ron reincarnated. You can jump on that one too. ;)

It is a common axiom in the CE world you're debating against, but that's O.K.


It's possible that IF the war is not decided before quality HD DVD players get down to the $199 range, hardware may yet play a more important role.

Software does indeed sell hardware, as in ipods, or UMD or anything where there is a total lack of an alternative, or more precisely lack of software may doom a format. Software also sells video games, which is one major reason that PS3 sales are less than expected.

If HD DVD has enough software available to justify a player purchase, it does not have to have the same amount of studio support initially.

But most people don't know squat about what studios own what movies. And if there enough software out there to justify the initial purchase decision it just doesn't matter. Despite alllllllllllll the Blu-ray studio support , the number of titles available is roughly comparable for both formats.

Human tendency is to believe that what is happening now will continue to happen and happen forever...
No, Human tendency is to interpret data in a way that suits them.

A Matrix or Jurassic Park, with no reply from Blu-ray, could throw up an anomoly (sp), but other than that my money would be safe.


I still think things are fairly wide open with the advantage to BD at the moment. What none of this tells us is the potential sales per title of each format. I would hazard a guess that Batman Begins could now be the biggest selling HD title on a per format basis, with it's strong catalogue showing so a big title on HD-DVD could still shift the numbers dramatically in the other direction in a single week.

Alternatively, weeks where there are 'Crank' status equivalents on either side could be fairly eve, depending on which format sells more catalogue titles. Even something of that status where there isn't much quality reply from BD could still see HD-DVD ahead that week. The big question is, what would these titles be for HD-DVD? I'm still most interested in the Departed week to see how much the other 11/12 BD titles released make a difference. Like i said before, if HD-DVD is even close that week, it's in good shape potentially IMO.

Universal is waiting until it clearly sees the sustained impact from HD A2 and PS3 sales and much higher adoption rates. They've made their bets for this year. No reason at all for them to even consider switching until 2008 after the holiday season.OK, keep fiddling, but you should probably be aware that Rome is quickly burning to the ground.

talkstr8t

OK, keep fiddling, but you should probably be aware that Rome is quickly burning to the ground

Wow, that is interesting. How did you come to that conclusion. Heck, even Sony says that only about a million discs have been sold total (both formats together) since the beginning.

Not exactly a huge number.

Originally Posted by Talkstr8t
The only load of crap is that one CE company (Toshiba), one studio (Universal), and one IT company (Microsoft) are standing in the way of the clear market success for the format which the overwhelming majority of their industry peers support. If/when any one of those companies backs off exclusive support HD DVD will be dead, as it long ago deserved to be.

You know a lot of people said the exact same thing about the Edsel. I am sure that Disney and Fox said something similar about DIVX.

It wasnt right then, and it may not be right now. Also, I dont really care what the "industry peers" want or support. I want movies in high definition, at a reasonable price. I dont really care how or who.

That is something the companies (on both sides) seem to forget time and again, and then they get a slap upside the head by the consumer (think DIVX)


The Blob,

if HD-DVD is even close that week, it's in good shape potentially IMO

I just dont understand people from either side makes predictions based on a single weeks numbers, especially when the numbers are so small.

OK, keep fiddling, but you should probably be aware that Rome is quickly burning to the ground.
The only load of crap is that one CE company (Toshiba), one studio (Universal), and one IT company (Microsoft) are standing in the way of the clear market success for the format which the overwhelming majority of their industry peers support. If/when any one of those companies backs off exclusive support HD DVD will be dead, as it long ago deserved to be. Yah, I know you think "HD DVD deserves to die" but somehow I'm glad that consumers will make that decision, instead of guys named Bill. :rolleyes:

Too early to tell, despite your claims and mid 1st quarter endzone dances.

OK, keep fiddling, but you should probably be aware that Rome is quickly burning to the ground.

It's not too late to vote in the "Is HD DVD Essentially Dead in the Water at This Point? (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=587148&page=1&pp=30)" poll.

Of course, it was first posted in October of 2005, but feel free to declare "the end is near" again if you want.

My sole reason can be that it's an affordable player with great upscaling for SD DVD and I need the upgrade to HDMI. My previous player has DVI and is not very compliant with today's display hardware.
There is loads and loads of content I can watch on this player already.
It's a great DVD player too.


You know that and I know that, but I bet the average, present buyer is not aware of the scaling abilities of any of the HD optical players.

You're on the right track about store isles. But to summarize on some other recent posts, I think when people consistently see one format with substantially more titles on the shelf than the other, more decisions on hardware will be made accordingly. I hope to God that format will not remain SD DVD.

I just dont understand people from either side makes predictions based on a single weeks numbers, especially when the numbers are so small.

The point is, it won't be a single week's prediction. By then we'll have had weeks of BD being way ahead of HD-DVD. I know it's small numbers so, if say, The Departed was to sell 15,000 on BD and close to the same on HD-DVD, it's a big title so both formats would be at level pegging irrespective of how well BD does in weeks where the releases are stacked in it's favour.

I run a small record label. Overall unit figures in my tiny genre of the music industry don't matter to me in the slightest and to anyone else i know in it, which is a lot of people. Overall figures are there to show how an industry is doing for investment and marketing purposes. What I and most others in my industry care about is selling higher volumes of more popular titles because the more you press and sell, the greater the profit per title. It makes the most money and allows us the financial scope to release the stuff that's good music but won't sell that well. Everything we're looking at here is about overall unit sales.

If a top selling title can sell good, comparative amounts on either format then i'm sure they're thinking there's still plenty of life there. If it gets to the point where the big titles are selling way more on one format or the other, that'll be the time when the exclusive studios start worrying about what to do next.

the blob,

I can understand the point you are making, but the point people are making is that HD DVD as a format is dead or should give up because BD sells 1000 more copies of a movie.

In other words, people are trying to predict the outcome of a multi-billion dollar enterprise based on a miniscule number of discs. Again as you said, and I was trying to say, if one format sells a million discs of a title and 10,000 of another, then there is something to worry about, but until there are significant numbers of units sold, much of this is pointless.

BTW, what kind of music do you produce. I buy a lot of music off CD Baby which carries small labels and different kinds of music.

This entire thread is speculative nonsense. The truth is that neither format will completely die out and both will coexist. Regardless of whichever becomes the more popular format, the other will always be available to consumers.

This situation will prove much more complicated than the old beta/vhs war. Toshiba and Microsoft have already released press statements that they will never abandon the HD DVD format no matter what sales figures may say. Sony has made similar statements concerning Blu-ray. Both formats will be a permanent mainstay in the market whether consumers want the other or not.

As far as the player sales are concerned, Toshiba has already made a very intelligent "back-door" decision. If it becomes truly clear that HD DVD movie sales are being pummeled by Blu-ray, they have a very effective counter measure that your typical American consumer won't be able to resist.

Low budget Chinese manufactured HD DVD players were already designed and at Toshiba's whim will quickly flood the market. They will meet a $200 price point and will sell like hotcakes. I sincerely doubt that Sony will effectively match that move.

Don't worry HD DVD backers. The "war" is just beginning and is far from over. ...And like their corporate backers have exclaimed, will never totally end.

This entire thread is speculative nonsense.

Odd that one of the few threads specifically focused on objective data is declared speculative nonsense :)

At any rate, I disagree a little bit with your analysis. For good or for bad, I think it is the universal players that will end the format war. But that's just speculation :)

But do were have anyway of calculating out the weekly sales ratio, without knowing the volumes involved? Or since we do know last weeks and before weekly sales ratios is there anyway that we could back calculate the actual voulumes?

Here is how I figure it, HD DVD sales relative to 100 BDs sold have to add then average over the period to equal the most recent YTD. This yields 100:47 for week 1 (to state the obvious), 100:29 week 2, 100:74 week 3, 100:47 week 4, and 100:45 week 5. Cum 500:242 = 100:48 YTD give or take.

They really don't. Remember that HD-DVD had quite the head start on BR. If BR passes HD-DVD in total sales since inception and also continues to beat them handily with 2.5+ sales of BD to 1 sale of HD-DVD throughout this summer it's going to be a tough winter for HD-DVD fans.

"Quite the head start"? It was released what, 7 weeks earlier? How many discs do you think were sold in those 7 weeks?
In terms of software sales the head start is practically non-existent.

the blob,

In other words, people are trying to predict the outcome of a multi-billion dollar enterprise based on a miniscule number of discs. Again as you said, and I was trying to say, if one format sells a million discs of a title and 10,000 of another, then there is something to worry about, but until there are significant numbers of units sold, much of this is pointless.

I doubt any invested party would bow out from the numbers since they are almost surely PS3 based. The PS3 put more players in more homes, but it would be an outright lie to suggest it's selling they way SONY had hoped, or built a base capable of sustaining a new format. I honestly think both parties can see a direct cause and effect in their actions, and are surprised or moved by none of these early figures.

If and when people start buying stand-alone units in numbers great enough to make a difference, the real outcomes will be determined.

I still think this is going to end in combo-players being the norm, because more and more it's what sound-byte articles on the war are preaching. People don't care if it's a practical solution or not, they have been told it can happen. I'll gladly eat it if I'm wrong. but if the whole HD ship starts going down, combos may be th only raft on deck.

The top 5 figures illustrate the importance--in the technology's infancy--of single releases. The fifth best-selling BD sells only a third of what the top disc sells? Wow. New releases are likely to make a big impact, and a mega release--like, say, Star Wars or Jaws--would throw the figures for a loop. This just reflects the fact that the total sales of all the discs is very small. If I were a software manufacturer, I'd be less interested in the total comparisons than in the comparative sales of the same title, since that would tell me which format offered the most potential for my titles. The amazon rankings for The Departed, for whatever they're worth, suggest that BD and HD DVD are currently about even.

Odd that one of the few threads specifically focused on objective data is declared speculative nonsense :)

Based upon my reasoning that the current sales data is in its infancy. A completely worthless assessment for the long term outlook. ......Coupled along with the insights stated within my last post.

At any rate, I disagree a little bit with your analysis. For good or for bad, I think it is the universal players that will end the format war. But that's just speculation :)

Good one. ;)

Well, I do agree that dual format players will eventually become the mainstream solution. At over $1300, the initial player from no-name LG will be way too expensive for most consumers.

Until prices for future hybrid units become reasonable (could take awhile), they will simply be viewed as a nifty curiosity to most potential buyers.

The top 5 figures illustrate the importance--in the technology's infancy--of single releases. The fifth best-selling BD sells only a third of what the top disc sells? Wow. New releases are likely to make a big impact, and a mega release--like, say, Star Wars or Jaws--would throw the figures for a loop. This just reflects the fact that the total sales of all the discs is very small. If I were a software manufacturer, I'd be less interested in the total comparisons than in the comparative sales of the same title, since that would tell me which format offered the most potential for my titles. The amazon rankings for The Departed, for whatever they're worth, suggest that BD and HD DVD are currently about even.


I agree, I don't think these numbers are surprise to either camp, but they might wish the overall numbers were more robust. I think they may have overestimated how much consumers would hand over.

It's not too late to vote in the "Is HD DVD Essentially Dead in the Water at This Point? (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=587148&page=1&pp=30)" poll.

Of course, it was first posted in October of 2005, but feel free to declare "the end is near" again if you want.


Great rebutal there skogan! And oh so very true. They will be saying the same thing in 2010.

This entire thread is speculative nonsense but its so much fun :D

Of course it speculative, we are trying to project the future off of pitiful bits of data :eek:

Well you can "believe" whatever you want. They are now saying that Tom Cruise is L. Ron reincarnated. You can jump on that one too. ;)

It is a common axiom in the CE world you're debating against, but that's O.K.


It's possible that IF the war is not decided before quality HD DVD players get down to the $199 range, hardware may yet play a more important role.

How do you explain the PS3 and increased software sales if hardware doesn't sell the software? BR sells were terrible before the PS3. Since the lower cost PS3 arrived sales for BR software has taken off. Before the PS3 the vast majority of BR supporters here didn't even own a player of any kind.

Why will it work for BR and not for HD DVD? Especially if players can come in at $300.00.

If anything, the PS3 proves that lower cost players are what will push a formats success. And the PS3 is not what I would call a low cost BR player but compared to the other BR units, I guess it is.

If the PS3 fails or can't increase it's attach rate BR is in serious trouble because there is no other low alternative.

Here is how I figure it, HD DVD sales relative to 100 BDs sold have to add then average over the period to equal the most recent YTD. This yields 100:47 for week 1 (to state the obvious), 100:29 week 2, 100:74 week 3, 100:47 week 4, and 100:45 week 5. Cum 500:242 = 100:48 YTD give or take. Well Grubert tried to plug in the data before and got:
No problem. Just don't complain if they don't make sense. ;)

Day Week YTD SI
01/07 63.3/36.7 63.3/36.7 40.9/59.1*
01/14 68.2/31.8 67.9/32.1* 42.9/57.1*
01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
So a complete chart using the numbers balanced by the combo correction would be:

Date YTD (Change) SI (SI Change)

BD/HD BD/HD

01/07 100/57.98* ( ) 69.15/100* ( )
01/14 100/47.18* (-10.80) 75.12/100* (+5.97)
01/21 100/50.51 (+03.33) 82.30/100 (+7.18)
01/28 100/49.21 (-01.30) 87.76/100 (+5.46)
02/04 100/48.38 (-00.93) 92.56/100 (+4.80)

* calculated

Why are we speculating when we have real numbers in front of our eyes?

This is the AVS Forum last time I checked.

I'm doing some numerical analysis on Grubert's latest set of data. I haven't confirmed yet, but I believe I can leapfrog from my previous calculations about SI between 1/21 and 1/28 and do some meaningful projections on this week's data.

I'll post more when I've got it worked out. Stay tuned!

EDIT: This wasn't directed at you, Kosty. :) Just at the people posting a bunch of "What if??" up above. There's a zillion threads to do that on this forum, let's keep this one focused on the facts we have before us?

EDIT2: Where are those projected numbers coming from, Kosty? Your quoted post from Hawkeye3.1? I don't know that I agree with his methodology, since it is not logical to assume that the sales volume for each week is identical (hence, you cannot assume an average, as he suggests).

EDIT3: Never mind, I see it came from Grubert. I'll check into his figures too while I'm at it and see if I can corroborate his math.

IMO the number of PS3 needed to sell a BD movie so far makes no busines sense. These players are subsidized to the tune of hundreds of dollars each and every month it appears BD sells more hardware than software. So, software sales have gone up, but the business model is not sustainable. It's like Gillette needing to give away two razors for every blade they sell! Week after week and month after month...think about it. That's BD right now!

Aw heck, no problem. I don't have a problem aiming at me. I figure I got a big fat target on my chest.

But the nature of this place is distributing information and creating informed discussion on it which by necessity includes some speculation and opinion.

Its when people at aim at Grubert is when I really have an issue. ;)

IMO the number of PS3 needed to sell a BD movie so far makes no busines sense. These players are subsidized to the tune of hundreds of dollars each and every month it appears BD sells more hardware than software. So, software sales have gone up, but the business model is not sustainable. It's like Gillette needing to give away two razors for every blade they sell! Week after week and month after month...think about it. That's BD right now!

You mean if they've sold 500,000 Blu-ray discs for 1,000,000 PS3 acting as Blu-ray players, what in the heck are they bragging about??? :D

Its probably better to have sold 100,000 players and sold 500,000 shiny discs don't you think? :rolleyes:

Well, I do agree that dual format players will eventually become the mainstream solution. At over $1300, the initial player from no-name LG will be way too expensive for most consumers.


Absolutely, but LG is starting to make a name for themselves. I found that out when I needed a new fridge and dishwasher last year.

Hybrid players may turn out to be their bag, they at least cut their teeth. If they hadn't premiered that combo at the CES, you wouldn't be hearing it discussed as a viable option to the degree you do now. They may end up really capitalizing off all this if they can smooth the wrinkles out and get that price down.

IMO the number of PS3 needed to sell a BD movie so far makes no busines sense. These players are subsidized to the tune of hundreds of dollars each and every month it appears BD sells more hardware than software. So, software sales have gone up, but the business model is not sustainable. It's like Gillette needing to give away two razors for every blade they sell! Week after week and month after month...think about it. That's BD right now!

I don't see how Sony stockholders will allow whats happening to go on for more than a year. Or at least untill the next Board elections.:)

Kosty, a 2 attach rate is certainly better than a .5 rate. But why can't people see that? All people want to see are higher weekly sales. Although they are fun to watch, I'm not certain they mean much of anything with so few titles being tracked.

IMO the number of PS3 needed to sell a BD movie so far makes no busines sense. These players are subsidized to the tune of hundreds of dollars each and every month it appears BD sells more hardware than software. So, software sales have gone up, but the business model is not sustainable. It's like Gillette needing to give away two razors for every blade they sell! Week after week and month after month...think about it. That's BD right now!
Not an accurate analogy. Sony makes a notable royalty on every PS3 game sold (and continues to do so on PS2 games), assumably much larger than Toshiba's stake in HD-DVD royalties. This is how Sony can justify such a large subsidy on the PS3 unit, because after a while their cost to produce the unit decreases while the royalties increase with every game that is released.

A more apt (though still not accurate) comparison would be cell phones. Cell phone providers sell you a unit at reduced cost if you sign a contract with them that binds you to 2 years of service (or whatever), since they know you will have to pay them more in the future.

I don't see how Sony stockholders will allow whats happening to go on for more than a year. Or at least untill the next Board elections.:)


Well, how many times has Sony traveled this road? They have deep pockets and losses on "format building" seems like part of their manifesto.

I bet at this moment they are more worried about the PS3's status as a game console than the BD attach rate. I mean in all fairness, I've heard some people actually play games on these things too ;)

Okay, last one... :)
This is the best thing you have done so far. Thank you (I think Neilsen will also thank you!).

Inaccuracies in the documents from Neilsen apart, I am getting ready to accept an apology from you when you confirm that this list indeed is from Neilsen. :) j/k (You do realize that their own mistakes don't make this list a fake, right?)


Well, I contacted Nielsen, with no reference to AVS Forum or this discussion. I just said I was interested in getting a list of contributing partners to Videoscan. This was their response:

"Please contact someone directly at the main # listed for Nielsen
VideoScan:

Nielsen VideoScan (914) 684-5500


Thank you for your interest."

So apparently just forwarding a list is not standard procedure, or at least it isn't anymore. Oddly enough, the US contact number on the Videoscan website is a Los Angeles area code. The area code in this e-mail is for Westchester County, New York.

Sorry for not being very clear.

Can we all agree on that HD DVD sales is still niche/insignificant in the big picture? If so, where does that 2:1 or 3:1 lead bluray? I am saying if there is a clear sales gap between the neutral titles, then bluray has a clear win in the early adopters market. If the sales gap is just because of more titles available, then I wouldn't even find that win very convincing.

Remember PS3's goal is to establish bluray in the mass market. Early adopter's market is always a given for bluray with $500 player and 90% content support.

I didn't not say cheap CE players would result in significant sales. I said if PS3 failed to eat into the mass market first, then HD DVD camp would at least have a chance to achieve the same thing via sub $250 players.

If I were in the HD DVD camp, I might feel relax now. You couldn't control the PS3 effect anyway.

I agree with your point that a 2:1 or 3:1 ratio from someplace like Nielsen doesn't really mean much yet. If Nielsen s similar to NPD, then it means that are tracking around 900,000 disc sales SI for both formats combined. This means both formats combined are selling maybe 15,000-20,000 units a week (based on the impact of YTD gains on SI gains). So a 2:1 lead means that the best a million PS3's have done is move 14,000 units a week compared to 7,000 units a week for HD-DVD on maybe 250,000 players. The ratio sounds impressive, but when you look at what it really means, it isn't so impressive.

If 10% of PS3 owners bought .25 discs per week, then that would be 25,000 BD discs per week. If Nielsen really does catch around 50-60% of sales, it would be a number around 12,500 and 15,000 BD units. Is this good news for Blu-ray? Basically, the average is 10% of PS3 owners will buy one BD disc per month. Good? Bad?

It's like saying I'm 3X richer than you because I have $.03 and you only have $.01. Guess what, we would both be pretty poor...

I agree with your point that a 2:1 or 3:1 ratio from someplace like Nielsen doesn't really mean much yet. If Nielsen s similar to NPD, then it means that are tracking around 900,000 disc sales SI for both formats combined. This means both formats combined are selling maybe 15,000-20,000 units a week (based on the impact of YTD gains on SI gains). So a 2:1 lead means that the best a million PS3's have done is move 14,000 units a week compared to 7,000 units a week for HD-DVD on maybe 250,000 players. The ratio sounds impressive, but when you look at what it really means, it isn't so impressive.Not that it puts it to an impressive area, but somebody else calculated that Blu-ray sold close to 10% of their Since-Inception total in the week ending January 28th. That would be closer to 45,000 units for that week for Blu-ray. How did you determine the 15-20k per week combined? I know it is from the YTD and SI, but not sure how you got it from that.

--Darin

Not that it puts it to an impressive area, but somebody else calculated that Blu-ray sold close to 10% of their Since-Inception total in the week ending January 28th. That would be closer to 45,000 units per week for Blu-ray. How did you determine the 15-20k per week combined? I know it is from the YTD and SI, but not sure how you got it from that.

--Darin

yes, but that calculation was based on 1.5 million HD-DVD discs in 2006 and 1 million or so BD discs. We are now finding out that these Nielsen numbers are probably based on around 900,000 combined sales, as opposed to 3,000,000. I think this invalidates the past comparisons you speak of.

Basically, I'm doing the same calculation, but it is based off slightly less than 1/3 as many discs selling as previously thought. Which means the BD units per week is 1/3 less (at least as far as reagarding to the Nielsen data), which also puts it at a little less than 15,000 units per week.

I've worked the numbers from two angles (both require some educated guess), and they both arrive at around the same estimates, 12500 to 15000 BD units per week. Actually, I believe the cause of the declining rate of gap change (1.6%, 1.4%, etc) is probably because the combined sales of both formats is decreasing from week to week.

Well, how many times has Sony traveled this road? They have deep pockets and losses on "format building" seem like part of their manifesto.

I bet at this moment they are more worried about the PS3's status as a game console than the BD attach rate. I mean in all fairness, I've heard some people actually play games on these things too ;)

Not nearly as many are playing games as they told their shareholders there would be by now. That is a problem.

yes, but that calculation was based on 1.5 million HD-DVD discs in 2006 and 1 million or so BD discs.No, I don't believe that 10% was based on that. Just from a quick look at the numbers for the last week it looks to me like 60k for the week ending the 28th combined would be closer to the ballpark if the total combined sales was 900k. How did you get the 15-20k? If that one week we 68.8/31.2, and the SI closed from 45.1 to 46.7 for Blu-ray, then it closed about 7% of the gap between the weekly number and the SI number for Blu-ray, or 1/15th of that gap in one week.

BTW: I'm just estimating and hoping Icemage will come in and do the full algebra.

--Darin

Correct Icemage, the model worked for the PS2 (110m players sold).

I just want to go over some of the maths (and logic) that I believe is correct. I'm not a student of maths, this is basically a logical exercise.

We can't really extrapolate the weekly share from this weeks YTD or SI shares. Or the rate of change. Theoretically BD could have won the week 100/0 or it could have been 60/40. Either scenario could have caused the figures to rise the amount they did. For a rise to happen (for Blu-ray) all we can be certain is that Blu-ray sold more units this week than HD DVD. We can assume that it probably was close to the previous weeks share but we can't say for certain.

The other issue is the rate of change in SI. I'm willing to bet there's a nice technical term for this mechanism but I don't know it. If there isn't I should invent one because it's an effect that's fairly common.

If the weekly sales stay and 70/30 in BD's favour indefinitely then the SI will continue to adjust until it is also 70/30 for Blu-ray. Usually, as the two figures approach parity the rate slows down, mainly because the numbers required to change the cumulative percentage grows larger.

The SI is always limited by the weekly figures. If the SI is to grow past 70/30 then the weekly figure needs to grow. For Blu-ray it seems this is happening however the growth is slowing. However the effect of being so far in front would surely have an effect on sales and would cause the gap to widen etc.

Basically, the average is 10% of PS3 owners will buy one BD disc per month. Good? Bad?

That is an attach rate of about 1 per PS3 per year.

But the problem really is that - the current PS3 owners are likely to have higher disposable income than the ones buying in future. So, that small attach rate could go down further.

Let us look at it this way. HD DVD guys claimed a annualized rate of 28 .... lets call that 20. So, 1M PS3 is equal to 50,000 HD DVD players or so.

Let us look at it this way. HD DVD guys claimed a annualized rate of 28 .... lets call that 20. So, 1M PS3 is equal to 50,000 HD DVD players or so.And yet with what should be well over 200k players on the HD DVD side, a little over 1 million PS3s are outselling them over 2:1 by Videoscan numbers each week for the last weeks we have data for. What does that tell you about the likelyhood that those calculations are correct that get you to one million PS3s equalling 50k HD DVD players?

--Darin

What does that tell you about the likelyhood that those calculations are correct that get you to one million PS3s equalling 50k HD DVD players?

Either videoscan numbers are wrong or 28 annualized attach rates were wrong .... and what do I really think ? Both are wrong ... ;)

Either videoscan numbers are wrong or 28 annualized attach rates were wrong .... and what do I really think ? Both are wrong ... ;)I would like wnorris to explain how he came up with the 15k-20k per week total that got to the number that you used for the PS3, as I don't see the Videoscan numbers as indicating that low per week right now. Maybe I'm missing something, but even 20k per week would mean 900k would take 45 weeks. These formats haven't even been out for 45 weeks and it should be clear that volumes are higher now than back in the first couple of months.

As far as the 28 annualized rate, I think some in the HD DVD camp will use that as long as they can, since I bet it is a lot lower now. And if a bunch of people buy HD DVD players because they got $200 off when buying an HDTV, I bet their average attach rate will be lower than it was for the earliest adopters.

--Darin

I would like wnorris to explain how he came up with the 15k-20k per week total that got to the number that you used for the PS, as I don't see the Videoscan numbers as indicating that low per week right now. Maybe I'm missing something, but even 20k per week would mean 900k would take 45 weeks. These formats haven't even been out for 45 weeks and it should be clear that volumes are higher now than back in the first couple of months.

I had run the numbers last time when I found them to be not correct. I still have the spreadsheet somewhere ... I can plug in the new numbers and see.

As far as the 28 annualized rate, I think some in the HD DVD camp will use that as long as they can, since I bet it is a lot lower now. And if a bunch of people buy HD DVD players because they got $200 off when buying an HDTV, I bet their average attach rate will be lower than it was for the earliest adopters.

Absolutely. I don't know what the typical attach rate is ... but anything more than 10 per year would surprise me.

With PS3 the real problem we have is the inability to see how things go later ... after the rebates for movies have ended and how many repeat buyers there are. Also, whether this is a flash in the pan ... like UMD. We won't know the answers for a few more quarters ...

How do you explain the PS3 and increased software sales if hardware doesn't sell the software? BR sells were terrible before the PS3. Since the lower cost PS3 arrived sales for BR software has taken off. Before the PS3 the vast majority of BR supporters here didn't even own a player of any kind.

Why will it work for BR and not for HD DVD? Especially if players can come in at $300.00.

If anything, the PS3 proves that lower cost players are what will push a formats success. And the PS3 is not what I would call a low cost BR player but compared to the other BR units, I guess it is.

If the PS3 fails or can't increase it's attach rate BR is in serious trouble because there is no other low alternative.
Whoa! Dude, you just blew my mind.

Seriously, though, you do have a very valid point...

...for Blu-ray.

It is very likely that PS3s were bought as Christmas gifts and mainly by Sony devotees in hopes of it being the answer to all things new in gaming. Then there were no games. People began to test it out as a Blu-ray player and Whammo!... it has proven its worth elsewhere.

Yes, the PS3 is an example of a gaming machine that turns out to be an excellent BD player.

I don't know, does Toshiba have one of those?

Point is, I think this is a very extreme case. Unfortunately for HD DVD, not only do they not have the Software advantage, they also don't have a gaming/HD DVD Trojan Horse like the PS3. So your point only serves to bolster the stance of BD.

Also you said it yourself, the PS3 is not a "low cost" player.

I have said many times that I agree that if HD DVD can produce some sub $200, not $300 players VERY SOON, they will have an ace to play.

No, I don't believe that 10% was based on that. Just from a quick look at the numbers for the last week it looks to me like 60k for the week ending the 28th combined would be closer to the ballpark if the total combined sales was 900k. How did you get the 15-20k? If that one week we 68.8/31.2, and the SI closed from 45.1 to 46.7 for Blu-ray, then it closed about 7% of the gap between the weekly number and the SI number for Blu-ray, or 1/15th of that gap in one week.

BTW: I'm just estimating and hoping Icemage will come in and do the full algebra.

--Darin

All right, I took my calculations from the napkin to Excel, and I stand corrected. Your estimate, while different, is much closer.

I started with the assumption that Nielsen saw the same number of combined unit sales as NPD (877,000) for the week through Feb. 4. The difference with Nielsen that they are seeing a slightly different distribution between the two formats. I used the Nielsen ratios so far, as well as the data they provided to PC Magazine.

Since Jan. 1, I get an average of ~40,562 BD discs per week and ~19,996 HD-DVD discs per week.

Does that really change my analysis. Let's say Nielsen catches 50% of software sales, and 50% of hardware sales. This means by now they should be logging 500,000 PS3's. Add in around another 30,000 standalones caught at the same 50% rate. This means a average weekly attach rate of .077 discs per BD player, or one movie per 13 BD players each week.

Let's guess that by now, HD-DVD has sold 250,000 hardware sales, and Nielsen has caught 50% of those, or 125,000. It means HD-DVD is seeing a weekly attache rate of .160 discs per HD-DVD player, or one movie per 6.25 HD-DVD players each week.

Or if you want to spin this number, you could say even though BD is outselling HD-DVD 2:1, the need around twice as many players on the market to sell one disc. Otherwise, Blu-ray needs to sell 4X as many players to get 2X as many disc sales. Which situation has the better economy?

Or if you want to spin this number, you could say even though BD is outselling HD-DVD 2:1, the need around twice as many players on the market to sell one disc.
Well it's a good thing Blu-ray has sold a lot more than twice as many players then huh. ;)

Seriously, no one ever expected the PS3 to have the same attach rate as the Toshibas. I'm actually very surprised that it's half. Figured it would be much less, didn't you?

I do want to say, in all sincerity that I appreciate your efforts on these numbers.

Can anyone confirm?

Well it's a good thing Blu-ray has sold a lot more than twice as many players then huh. ;)

Seriously, no one ever expected the PS3 to have the same attach rate as the Toshibas. I'm actually very surprised that it's half. Figured it would be much less, didn't you?

I do want to say, in all sincerity that I appreciate your efforts on these numbers.

Can anyone confirm?

If this trend holds in the long run though, it would mean the success of the Blu-ray format is tied entirely to the success of the PS3. If over the course of this year, the PS3 and BD standalones can't outsell HD-DVD players by at least 2:1, then they will loose their 2:1 software advantage as well (it would be 1:1).

If this trend holds in the long run though, it would mean the success of the Blu-ray format is tied entirely to the success of the PS3. If over the course of this year, the PS3 and BD standalones can't outsell HD-DVD players by at least 2:1, then they will loose their 2:1 software advantage as well (it would be 1:1).
That is possible, yes.

Still so many variables though, on both sides. A solid number of games, though not many exclusive, are set for release in the coming months and I believe the PS3 will pick up more steam. I have heard from many gamers that are awaiting these releases for their PS3 purchase. However, said game sales could rob from BD purchases for a little while so that could end up, roughly a wash. This is one of the reasons I look to the rental market for the PS3. If the rental price is the same, why not try out those new-fangled BDs.

If this trend holds in the long run though, it would mean the success of the Blu-ray format is tied entirely to the success of the PS3. If over the course of this year, the PS3 and BD standalones can't outsell HD-DVD players by at least 2:1, then they will loose their 2:1 software advantage as well (it would be 1:1).
11111111111111 !!!!

BTW: I'm just estimating and hoping Icemage will come in and do the full algebra.


I've posted my calculations. Unless I have made a math error (possible, as it IS sort of 4:20AM here...), the numbers for weekly sales should be
Calculated weekly sales for 2/4/07:
Blu-ray 100
HD-DVD 45

Calculated adjusted percentages 2/4/07
Blu-ray 69.0
HD-DVD 31.0

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9800106&posted=1#post9800106

NOTE: I believe it is now possible to project what the relative sales of every data point we have is, using the HD-DVD sales from 1/21/07 to 1/28/08 as the base unit.

For the math-inclined here, please check my logic and see if it makes sense, or if I've made any mathematical mistakes. I've checked my work twice, but it is still very possible that I have made a mistake (as I did with the first set, though it was a minor one).

EDIT: I also looked at Grubert's numbers, but I cannot figure out how he arrived at his previously calculated figures. It seems that he is making some sort of unsupported assumption, but I cannot find the original source of his proof of logic for the numbers that Kosty quoted a couple pages back.

EDIT2: Confirmed that Grubert's numbers were a projection based on assumptions.

EDIT3: Rechecked my work and found a small calculation error. Revised numbers to reflect the corrected figures.

EDIT: I also looked at Grubert's numbers, but I cannot figure out how he arrived at his previously calculated figures. It seems that he is making some sort of unsupported assumption, but I cannot find the original source of his proof of logic for the numbers that Kosty quoted a couple pages back.

Not unsupported - just flimsily supported ;) (see post #1532 (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9751994&&#post9751994)).

Just look at the PC Mag data for Jan 7 data: 63.3/36.7. This must be also the YTD ratio for the Jan 1-Jan 7 period. Right?

100*36.7/63.3 = 57.98

So it follows that during that period, for every 100 BDs sold there were 57.98 HD DVDs sold (including combos).

On the other hand, the YTD stat as given by Home Media Magazine for the same period was 100.00 / 47.14 (not including combos).

100* 47.14/57.98 = 81.3

So during that week, of every 100 HD DVDs sold, 81.3 were non-combos and (consequently) 18.7 were combos. In other words, HD DVD sales were 23 percent higher than initially reported by Home Media Magazine.

If apply that percentage on the other figures that didn't include combos, we could get an estimate of what they would be including combos.

Of course, this is an oversimplification, because the ratio of combos/non-combos sold does not necessarily stay constant.

But do were have anyway of calculating out the weekly sales ratio, without knowing the volumes involved? Or since we do know last weeks and before weekly sales ratios is there anyway that we could back calculate the actual voulumes?

the simple answer is NO

think of it this way Let's say B=BD sold previous to week in question, H=HD DVD sold previously (be it YTD or SI). b=BD sold that week, h= HD DVD that week


so the equation fro BD would be (B+b)/(H+B+h+b) what this means is that there are two things that would affect the rate of change

1) the size of b (or h) with respect to the total
2) the ratio b/(h+b) (week)

O.K., I got the highlights the first time before you had to edit and spell them out more.

You're right, that is a big assumption, but just trying to make heads or tails of the math using said assumption.

What YOU'RE ASSuming is that the weekly gap won't widen in the coming months.

guys (Kosty and Sketcha)

1) Sketcha is right, if the SW numbers remain roughly the same and the ratios the same then the SI and YTD differences will decrease from week to week. Kosty, that is all that I think he meant

2) Sketcha you are wrong. You only accounted for half the equation. Even if the ratios are the same, if the absolute numbers change for the week then the difference will change as well. For example if the ratio is the same as last week (that we don't have) but the numbers double then that will have a bigger effect then if the numbers stayed the same

I assume everyone has seen this?

http://66.103.156.190/images/eva/eva102/figures.jpg

and that's only part of the story. Full article is here:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom021107/index.php

(go to page 16)

So excluding PS3 sales they're claiming there have been 439,000 Blu-ray players sold and 438,000 HD DVD players sold.

If you don't agree take it up with The NPD Group who reported the figures or Home Media Magazine who wrote the article.

The odd thing is that at the CES the HD DVD group reported total hardware units (including X-Box add-on) of 175,000. Very weird.

If 10% of PS3 owners bought .25 discs per week, then that would be 25,000 BD discs per week. If Nielsen really does catch around 50-60% of sales, it would be a number around 12,500 and 15,000 BD units. Is this good news for Blu-ray? Basically, the average is 10% of PS3 owners will buy one BD disc per month. Good? Bad?


don't know, my rough estimate put the PS3 attachment rate at floor of around 20% of 360 add-on equivalency

i.e.
1) this is real rough calcs
2) floor (for those that don't know) means the lowest
3) this was done with the first week of Jan since that is where we have the best numbers
4) I use the add on because it is the best selling HD DVD player and by far

why 20%

we had that BD outsold HD DVD 2:1 since the beginning of the year (around that)
we have that 100k add ons sold last year and less then 1M PS3. so that makes the PS3=10x add on (actually should be smaller but that would raise the floor

if (big if but makes the math easier and lowers the floor) we assume the stand alone players to be negligible and close enough that the 2:1 can be applied to he PS3 vs add-on (i.e. that we can assume the 2:1 to PS3 vs add on and that it is not 3:1 PS3/add on and 8:1 (or something else) in favour of HD DVD vs BD that gave us the 2:1)

we get 10x more PS3s sell 2x more disks or an equivalence of 20%. (i.e. what that means is that if the attachment rate for the add on is 2 disks then either 20% of PS3 owners bought 2 disks or 40% bought 1 or 10% bough 4)

If this trend holds in the long run though, it would mean the success of the Blu-ray format is tied entirely to the success of the PS3. If over the course of this year, the PS3 and BD standalones can't outsell HD-DVD players by at least 2:1, then they will loose their 2:1 software advantage as well (it would be 1:1).

There's another way to look at this. If BD can cast sufficient doubt that HD-DVD can quickly end the war (which they surely did), then the sales of standalone players will slow to a trickle (which seems to be happening). People will prefer to wait until the winner is clear. Who gains from this? BD since PS3 sales are more tied to games than to BD.

HD-DVD player sales seem to have slowed considerably on Amazon. (The A2 used to be in the top 5 of DVD players, now it is only occasionally in the top 20). That's all BD needs to win.

Not 439,000 players. 439,000 hardware units; 34.4% made by Sony. They are including the Blu-ray pc drives made by Sony, LG, BenQ, Lite-On, etc. as well as computers and laptops with Blu-ray drives in those 440K units. Some of those units are only used for large data storage. I also do not see in the article where it says the NPD numbers are for North America just that the numbers were provided by SCE America. This could just be more Sony spin doctoring because people will assume numers coming from SCE America to only include North America since the numbers weren't qualified. For instance the article on page 3 under HIGH-DEF "PS3 Continues March into Homes" says that Sony sold 639,000 PS3s in the United States last year, according to The NPD Group. That article qualified that the sales were in the United States.

Not an accurate analogy. Sony makes a notable royalty on every PS3 game sold (and continues to do so on PS2 games), assumably much larger than Toshiba's stake in HD-DVD royalties. This is how Sony can justify such a large subsidy on the PS3 unit, because after a while their cost to produce the unit decreases while the royalties increase with every game that is released.

A more apt (though still not accurate) comparison would be cell phones. Cell phone providers sell you a unit at reduced cost if you sign a contract with them that binds you to 2 years of service (or whatever), since they know you will have to pay them more in the future.

Yes, but you assume that the PS3 will be used to play games. If it remains the cheapest BD player, many will be sold just to play BD movies. The subsidy on these "movie only" units will be lost as they get no return from game royalties.

If Toshiba sells 2 million standalone HD-DVD players this year, is Sony going to be excited to sell 2 million "movie use only" PS3's where they get no return from video game royalties?

The odd thing is that at the CES the HD DVD group reported total hardware units (including X-Box add-on) of 175,000. Very weird.

the 175k was for NA but yeah there are a lot of odd things in that aricle that don't make sense

Problem is if you look at Amazon, sales of software have dried to a trickle. It's not that slow down in the sales of the A2 (which when I last checked is still in the top 10 DVD player) is correlated with an improved sale of BD player sales. If anything they seem to have dropped even more.

I think there's something else going on in Amazon. The current rankings show the bottom falling off!

I assume everyone has seen this?

http://66.103.156.190/images/eva/eva102/figures.jpg

and that's only part of the story. Full article is here:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom021107/index.php

(go to page 16)

So excluding PS3 sales they're claiming there have been 439,000 Blu-ray players sold and 438,000 HD DVD players sold.

If you don't agree take it up with The NPD Group who reported the figures or Home Media Magazine who wrote the article.

The odd thing is that at the CES the HD DVD group reported total hardware units (including X-Box add-on) of 175,000. Very weird.

Sorry Fozz, you are late to the dance. The source of this article has already corrected themselves to say they are talking about disc units and not hardware units. It's 439,000 and 438,000 movies, not players.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4698&Itemid=2

Not 439,000 players. 439,000 hardware units; 34.4% made by Sony. They are including the Blu-ray pc drives made by Sony, LG, BenQ, Lite-On, etc. as well as computers and laptops with Blu-ray drives in those 440K units. Some of those units are only used for large data storage. I also do not see in the article where it says the NPD numbers are for North America just that the numbers were provided by SCE America. This could just be more Sony spin doctoring because people will assume numers coming from SCE America to only include North America since the numbers weren't qualified. For instance the article on page 3 under HIGH-DEF "PS3 Continues March into Homes" says that Sony sold 639,000 PS3s in the United States last year, according to The NPD Group. That article qualified that the sales were in the United States.

You're late to the dance too. These are movie unit numbers, nothing to do with hardware.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4698&Itemid=2

Yes, but you assume that the PS3 will be used to play games. If it remains the cheapest BD player, many will be sold just to play BD movies. The subsidy on these "movie only" units will be lost as they get no return from game royalties.

if they are sold for movies BD wins and then they get royalties from Toshiba who will want to make BD players :)

how come they are movie players when we are discussing gaming and game machines that no one will use for movies when we discuss movies.

If it is in the house it will be used for both, no matter what the main reason for the purchase.



If Toshiba sells 2 million standalone HD-DVD players this year, is Sony going to be excited to sell 2 million "movie use only" PS3's where they get no return from video game royalties?

Toshiba could not sell 100k last year, what makes you think 2M is any way possible. Just to add some perspective, DVD sold 300k+ players in the US the first year and around 1M the second, Toshiba told us around 60k in NA last year

Problem is if you look at Amazon, sales of software have dried to a trickle. It's not that slow down in the sales of the A2 (which when I last checked is still in the top 10 DVD player) is correlated with an improved sale of BD player sales. If anything they seem to have dropped even more.

I think there's something else going on in Amazon. The current rankings show the bottom falling off!

It could be a few things. One, January and February are typically slow months. Sales won't pickup till April again.

Also, HD-DVD is basically silent when it comes to public mentions of a format war. I think they remain silent so customers won't be scared off by the war. I believe their strategy is to try to get as many people to buy into HD, and they hope their marketing (or pricing) leads customers to pick HD-DVD over Blu-ray more often than not.

However, Sony likes to toot their own horn and make desperate public announcements that they have won the format war (we seem to get one about every two weeks). This serves as a constant reminder to the public that there is a format war, causing them to hold off on any HD format purchase. I think Sony realizes they can't compete yet with HD-DVD in retail stores with typical consumers, and they do this as a delaying tactic.

if they are sold for movies BD wins and then they get royalties from Toshiba who will want to make BD players :)

how come they are movie players when we are discussing gaming and game machines that no one will use for movies when we discuss movies.

If it is in the house it will be used for both, no matter what the main reason for the purchase.




Toshiba could not sell 100k last year, what makes you think 2M is any way possible. Just to add some perspective, DVD sold 300k+ players in the US the first year and around 1M the second, Toshiba told us around 60k in NA last year

My parents wouldn't play a game if their life depended on it. Yet they would buy an HD optical format. So how would the PS3 be used as both game machine and BD player in their household?

if they are sold for movies BD wins and then they get royalties from Toshiba who will want to make BD players :)

how come they are movie players when we are discussing gaming and game machines that no one will use for movies when we discuss movies.

If it is in the house it will be used for both, no matter what the main reason for the purchase.




Toshiba could not sell 100k last year, what makes you think 2M is any way possible. Just to add some perspective, DVD sold 300k+ players in the US the first year and around 1M the second, Toshiba told us around 60k in NA last year

It doesn't matter if it is a Toshiba or a x-box addon, Toshiba said 175,000 HD-DVD players were sold last year.

The first year, DVD sold ~315k players and they had one extra month to do so compared to HD-DVD's first year. So if you give HD-DVD January's sales to make the window in time the same size, HD-DVD probably sold around 250,000 players. I think this is a fairly comparable figure, especially when there is a full on raging format war (the DIVX war ended 4 months into the launch of DVD).

I think 2 million is what Toshiba is pushing as their target. This isn't a 2007 sales number, but a SI sales figure. Personally, I am skeptical that they make that target. I am also skeptical that the PS3 will hit their 3rd downware revision of their target. If the format war ended today, I think Toshiba might have a shot at the 2 million SI number. If they just match the DVD performance curve, HD-DVD will have a million "movie only" players on the market by the end of 2007.

So change what I said to Sony has 1,000,000 movie only PS3's (assuming PS3 remains the cheapest BD player option). That is a $300 million dollar loss with no video game royalties to recoup the loss.

Problem is if you look at Amazon, sales of software have dried to a trickle. It's not that slow down in the sales of the A2 (which when I last checked is still in the top 10 DVD player) is correlated with an improved sale of BD player sales. If anything they seem to have dropped even more.

I think there's something else going on in Amazon. The current rankings show the bottom falling off!

That is definitely a possibility. The other possibility is that people are getting cautious about buying into either of the formats. People buy less players and people with players buy less new DVDs. Renting is the safer option now.

The argument that Jan/Feb are slow months applies to all DVDs and DVD players so it should not affect HD disproportionally?

(At the time of writing, the A2 is 16th on Amazon. The Samsung BD has improved from negligeable to nearly negligeable ;). It is unusual that players of a new technology actually slow down RELATIVE TO the old technology players.)

You're late to the dance too. These are movie unit numbers, nothing to do with hardware.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4698&Itemid=2
Yup. That makes way more sense.

Makes me wonder how many folks waited until Christmas Day to open their PS3s? As well as all those scalpers holding on to unopened PS3s. They'd only have had 6 days left in '06 to buy BDs and have their purchases counted by NPD. That would skew last year's attach rate for the PS3. Those BD sales numbers certainly don't seem to jive with Sony's survey data.

I agree with your point that a 2:1 or 3:1 ratio from someplace like Nielsen doesn't really mean much yet. If Nielsen s similar to NPD, then it means that are tracking around 900,000 disc sales SI for both formats combined. This means both formats combined are selling maybe 15,000-20,000 units a week (based on the impact of YTD gains on SI gains). So a 2:1 lead means that the best a million PS3's have done is move 14,000 units a week compared to 7,000 units a week for HD-DVD on maybe 250,000 players. The ratio sounds impressive, but when you look at what it really means, it isn't so impressive.

If 10% of PS3 owners bought .25 discs per week, then that would be 25,000 BD discs per week. If Nielsen really does catch around 50-60% of sales, it would be a number around 12,500 and 15,000 BD units. Is this good news for Blu-ray? Basically, the average is 10% of PS3 owners will buy one BD disc per month. Good? Bad?

It's like saying I'm 3X richer than you because I have $.03 and you only have $.01. Guess what, we would both be pretty poor...

The BDA is reporting currently that they are selling about 45,000 BDs a week and increasing steadily.

So I don't know that all your math is right and you clearly have a lot of assumptions in there about numbers that we simply don't have all the access to.

The BDA is reporting currently that they are selling about 45,000 BDs a week and increasing steadily.

So I don't know that all your math is right and you clearly have a lot of assumptions in there about numbers that we simply don't have all the access to.

Where have they reported that at? I must have missed the press release or article.

Problem is if you look at Amazon, sales of software have dried to a trickle.The rankings have crashed, but from spot checks of in stock changes it doesn't seem like sales necessarily have. They may have just changed the way they calculate rankings (for these or for everything in that category).
It's not that slow down in the sales of the A2 (which when I last checked is still in the top 10 DVD player) is correlated with an improved sale of BD player sales. If anything they seem to have dropped even more.The BD player sales on Amazon look like they have been bad for a long time. Looks like the A2 sales probably went up to about 15 or 16 per day for the last couple of days from the in stock numbers. They had dropped to 3 or 4 per day and then to 9 for one day in the last week based on those stock numbers.

--Darin

Where have they reported that at? I must have missed the press release or article.

I read it somewhere the other day, I don't recall where. I will look for a bit. I read this stuff everyday so it could have been anywhere, but I'm certain they said that figure and that sales were increasing steadily.

I read it somewhere the other day, I don't recall where. I will look for a bit. I read this stuff everyday so it could have been anywhere, but I'm certain they said that figure and that sales were increasing steadily.

The only place I've seen that figure is from someone's personal estimate based on their calculations, based on Nielsen numbers, and based on an educated guess of the volume of sales captured by Nielsen.

I've never seen a news article or press release (or link to one on AVS) that states this number. I think it would have been posted 10 times in this thread alone if there really was such a release.

However, if you read a few posts down from the one you quoted, you will see that I took the numbers to Excel, used some additional Nielsen data not used in the other analysis (weekly sales figures), and my own educated guess at the starting point. I came up with 40,562 BD discs per week, on average, since Jan.1.

guys (Kosty and Sketcha)

1) Sketcha is right, if the SW numbers remain roughly the same and the ratios the same then the SI and YTD differences will decrease from week to week. Kosty, that is all that I think he meant

2) Sketcha you are wrong. You only accounted for half the equation. Even if the ratios are the same, if the absolute numbers change for the week then the difference will change as well. For example if the ratio is the same as last week (that we don't have) but the numbers double then that will have a bigger effect then if the numbers stayed the same
"Dooshay...

...or should I say...

...Summer's Eve."

Heres the glass half full argument for HD DVD. Overall sales have been steady and consistent, despite the lack of new releases.

If new HD DVD owners are buying the movies now, because of the lack of new releases that could be a hidden strength for HD DVD. That could give the potential of higher sales when new releases eventually come.

Even if Blu-ray is selling 40,000 movies discs per week to HD DVDs 20,000 or if its 20,000 units compared to 10,000 shiny discs, the raw numerical difference is still a pretty small number compared to 1,000,000 PS3 units in the wild.

And if the 10,000 or 20,000 units for HD DVD is being driven primarily from new HD A2 players sales, then that still could mean a steady enlargement in the stand alone player base for HD DVD. If you look at the depth of the HD DVD catalog sales (Batman, Superman, Serenity for chrissakes) its possible that those movies are being bought by new owners.

Since most DVD's releases tend toward sales in the first 30 or 60 days of release, it possible that HD DVD sales may accelerate with any new releases as they might be slowly but surely accumulating newer stand alone player owners that may have similar attach rates as the earlier first adopter owners.

Remember it is not so much that HD DVD movie sales rate has so much dropped as that Blu-ray's sales have caught up and surpassed it which the disc sales and promotions inherent in the PS3 new owners Blu-ray purchases.

Where have they reported that at? I must have missed the press release or article.
The number was mentioned in the press release for the Blu-ray launch in Australia (February 14, 2007).

"Globally, Blu-ray continues to grow as the natural choice, next generation format. In the United States, Hollywood Studios are selling upwards of 45,000 Blu-ray titles weekly, with predictions showing steady growth driven by increasing hardware sales."

Source: http://www.blurayaustralia.com.au/news/pdf/Bluray_aust_launch_consumertech_FINAL.pdf

You're late to the dance too. These are movie unit numbers, nothing to do with hardware.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4698&Itemid=2

Got a link to Home Media's correction?

"In response to an inquiry from Next-Gen, SCEA states that cumulative Blu-ray movie unit sales stand at just over 439,000 units in the US, while total HD-DVD sales are just under 438,000 units. Blu-ray currently stands as the number one new DVD format in unit and dollar sales in the US, according to research firm NPD Group."

More Sony BS, or is it now NPD? There trying to tell us they know the total number of sales within 0.2%? I need a really, really big break from these Sony lies.

"In response to an inquiry from Next-Gen, SCEA states that cumulative Blu-ray movie unit sales stand at just over 439,000 units in the US, while total HD-DVD sales are just under 438,000 units. Blu-ray currently stands as the number one new DVD format in unit and dollar sales in the US, according to research firm NPD Group."

More Sony BS, or is it now NPD? There trying to tell us they know the total number of sales within 0.2%? I need a really, really big break from these Sony lies.

Home Media magazine report those figures as hardware. The website you quoted says they are software.

I would like to know the truth. Apparently the source for these numbers is NPD (a reputable company). We need somebody who works for NPD or knows somebody who works there that can confirm what these numbers actually relate to.

I won't hold my breath for an answer though. On the bright side, in 3 months time we should have lots more numbers that will help us sort out which historical numbers were accurate and which ones were propaganda.

"In response to an inquiry from Next-Gen, SCEA states that cumulative Blu-ray movie unit sales stand at just over 439,000 units in the US, while total HD-DVD sales are just under 438,000 units. Blu-ray currently stands as the number one new DVD format in unit and dollar sales in the US, according to research firm NPD Group."

More Sony BS, or is it now NPD? There trying to tell us they know the total number of sales within 0.2%? I need a really, really big break from these Sony lies.
It looks like HD DVD is actually ahead of the game since they have a lot less mouths to feed.

Problem is if you look at Amazon, sales of software have dried to a trickle. It's not that slow down in the sales of the A2 (which when I last checked is still in the top 10 DVD player) is correlated with an improved sale of BD player sales. If anything they seem to have dropped even more.

I think there's something else going on in Amazon. The current rankings show the bottom falling off!

The Amazon situation seems to be changing back to where it had been.

There was a mention in another thread that some old out-of-print titles briefly showed up in the top 100. They further speculated that it might be an indication that Amazon changed their rank system to include partner sellers and not just products to be shipped by Amazon themselves. If so, this just shows how trivial sales are on these new formats in the grand scheme of things.

Whatever they did, they changed again. Both formats are nearly back to pre-crash levels (in less than 12 hours). And three BDs are solidly in the top-100 right now.

Gary

My parents wouldn't play a game if their life depended on it. Yet they would buy an HD optical format. So how would the PS3 be used as both game machine and BD player in their household?

do they have a PS3?

It doesn't matter if it is a Toshiba or a x-box addon, Toshiba said 175,000 HD-DVD players were sold last year.

you said Toshiba

[/quote]The first year, DVD sold ~315k players and they had one extra month to do so compared to HD-DVD's first year.[/quote]
not according to http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html DVD started in April, when did HD DVD start?

So if you give HD-DVD January's sales to make the window in time the same size, HD-DVD probably sold around 250,000 players.
and why do you think 75k players sold in Jan? 20,30k maybe but 75k anything to back up that number?

I think this is a fairly comparable figure, especially when there is a full on raging format war (the DIVX war ended 4 months into the launch of DVD).

but the format war will continue. According to you the format war made HD DVD be 80% of DVD sales in the first year but won't affect it in the second and not only that but that HD DVD will sell 2x as well


[quote]
I think 2 million is what Toshiba is pushing as their target. This isn't a 2007 sales number, but a SI sales figure. Personally, I am skeptical that they make that target. I am also skeptical that the PS3 will hit their 3rd downware revision of their target. If the format war ended today, I think Toshiba might have a shot at the 2 million SI number. If they just match the DVD performance curve, HD-DVD will have a million "movie only" players on the market by the end of 2007.

OK, so you are saying that if BD dissapeared today (forget that disk sales are much better for BD and that there are many more players out there at this time) that by some reason even though DVD only reached 1.4M HD DVD will sell much better and get to 2M? with 1.8M this year to catch up on the deficit (i.e. sold a lot less the first year)

So change what I said to Sony has 1,000,000 movie only PS3's (assuming PS3 remains the cheapest BD player option). That is a $300 million dollar loss with no video game royalties to recoup the loss.

like Toshiba it will need to recoup it on games. On the other hand that 1M does not make sence because except for your parents (and even then they might buy a game for other reasons) most people are not that single minded and most people are curious.

Whatever they did, they changed again. Both formats are nearly back to pre-crash levels (in less than 12 hours). And three BDs are solidly in the top-100 right now.

Gary Its even weirder if you look at the 24 hour graph. Its a deep pothole in the chart. Thats a bizzare statistical artifact.

you said Toshiba

The first year, DVD sold ~315k players and they had one extra month to do so compared to HD-DVD's first year.[/quote]
not according to http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html DVD started in April, when did HD DVD start?


and why do you think 75k players sold in Jan? 20,30k maybe but 75k anything to back up that number?



but the format war will continue. According to you the format war made HD DVD be 80% of DVD sales in the first year but won't affect it in the second and not only that but that HD DVD will sell 2x as well



OK, so you are saying that if BD dissapeared today (forget that disk sales are much better for BD and that there are many more players out there at this time) that by some reason even though DVD only reached 1.4M HD DVD will sell much better and get to 2M? with 1.8M this year to catch up on the deficit (i.e. sold a lot less the first year)


like Toshiba it will need to recoup it on games. On the other hand that 1M does not make sence because except for your parents (and even then they might buy a game for other reasons) most people are not that single minded and most people are curious.

Can you not read a chart? The link you provided says DVD launched in March. You said April. Are you having trouble understanding that complex chart you linked? :rolleyes:

And yes, a next gen optical disc format would sell better than DVD if not for a format war. When DVD first launched, consumers had questions about wither optical disc movies would be reliable. They learned lessons in how to market them and what features were necessary to attract customers.

If a lone HD optical disc format had been introduced and only sold at DVD levels, it would actually be a failure. It should receive acceptance at a much faster rate than DVD experienced.

Its even weirder if you look at the 24 hour graph. Its a deep pothole in the chart. Thats a bizzare statistical artifact.

I've seen some odd numbers kick in for a few hours, before. This is the first time the oddities have spread over 4-5 days.

Things are now back to where they were before all this happened. Very wierd.

Gary

DVD started selling the last week of march, i know because i bought one of the first unit in Canada back in 1997, no store had it (pioneer) but Hifi Center something like March 20th..

I didn't had a movie to play until 1 month with my player, my first movie was Mortal Kombat from New Line, i wanted Eraser, but it was sold out..

Got a link to Home Media's correction?

Home media reprinted the article with permission, and they have not issued any type of correction. Perhaps in the next issue. The link I provided is a link to the original source.

DVD started selling the last week of march, i know because i bought one of the first unit in Canada back in 1997, no store had it (pioneer) but Hifi Center something like March 20th..

I didn't had a movie to play until 1 month with my player, my first movie was Mortal Kombat from New Line, i wanted Eraser, but it was sold out..

I got the Sony S7000 the first week it was available in March 1997. It came with two discs (In the Line of Fire and Fly Away Home) so I was fortunate to have some content.

Until the "eight city" software launch ended in the fall, I was using Mom&Pops all around downtown Toronto and online purchases for titles. I had 20 or so titles before a major retailer sold DVD discs here.

Gary

Can you not read a chart? The link you provided says DVD launched in March. You said April. Are you having trouble understanding that complex chart you linked?

it sold a few days in march and like ryoohki and like the chart shows it was more of a paper tiger because nothing was ready for it in March and nothing much sold. The April # are April and March combined and just for comparison are MUCH bigger then HD DVD had done by June (June was when Toshiba said the 20k HD DVD had shipped)


And yes, a next gen optical disc format would sell better than DVD if not for a format war. When DVD first launched, consumers had questions about wither optical disc movies would be reliable. They learned lessons in how to market them and what features were necessary to attract customers.


and now most people don't have HDTVS so they can't get the full advantage of an HD player. If you get a player for free the person could watch marginally better HD but why would they run out and buy a 500$ DVD player when they did not bother spending money on an HD set?

If a lone HD optical disc format had been introduced and only sold at DVD levels, it would actually be a failure. It should receive acceptance at a much faster rate than DVD experienced.I'm not so sure about that. DVD can be enjoyed by anyone with a TV. Highdef discs can only be enjoyed (fully experienced) by people who have HDTVs. Are there as many HDTVs in homes now as there were TVs in homes in 1997?

it sold a few days in march and like ryoohki and like the chart shows it was more of a paper tiger because nothing was ready for it in March and nothing much sold. The April # are April and March combined and just for comparison are MUCH bigger then HD DVD had done by June (June was when Toshiba said the 20k HD DVD had shipped)


and now most people don't have HDTVS so they can't get the full advantage of an HD player. If you get a player for free the person could watch marginally better HD but why would they run out and buy a 500$ DVD player when they did not bother spending money on an HD set?


Well, let's start splitting hairs. The first DVD players were available in retail outlets on March 17th, with no software. And the first slate of 30+ discs was March 24th. So players were available for two weeks in March.

I think the HD-DVD players hit on April 3rd, with no discs until April 18th. So there was two weeks difference between hardware and three weeks difference for software.

I'm not so sure about that. DVD can be enjoyed by anyone with a TV. Highdef discs can only be enjoyed (fully experienced) by people who have HDTVs. Are there as many HDTVs in homes now as there were TVs in homes in 1997?

I can't find any numbers for 2006 (maybe they aren't out yet) or projections for 2007. At the end of 2005, 17% of households had a hi-def set. I'm sure that by 2006, that number is probably around 50% or better. It will be interesting to see.

However, by that same arguement, I didn't see much difference in DVD and VHS on a 15" TV in my dorm. So when DVD was released, what percentage of households had larger TV's (27" and up maybe), compared to smaller sets. The point, not all regular TV's could produce a signifigantly better picture between VHS and DVD (think of how many 15-20 year old CRT's are still in peoples homes).

I'm sure that by 2006, that number is probably around 50% or better. It will be interesting to see.
NO WAY!!!

We wish!

I might give you double, or 34% which would still be huge! But I doubt it's even that high.

NO WAY!!!

We wish!

I might give you double, or 34% which would still be huge! But I doubt it's even that high.

I think you'll be surprised. I bought a 15" LCD to put in my hobby room for this year. It is HDTV ready @ 720p. I paid $125 for it after Thanksgiving. Even though it is small and you can't easily notice the difference between DVD and HD-DVD (you can a little though), it would still count as a HDTV set. My household currently has three hi-def sets in it.

The original 2005 estimate (made in 2004) was less than 10% in 2005, and they came in at 17%. For 2006, the original estimate was 25%. And by 2009, it only got to 41%. Since the number was crushed in 2005 though, I expect it to get crushed each year after.

I can't find any numbers for 2006 (maybe they aren't out yet) or projections for 2007. At the end of 2005, 17% of households had a hi-def set. I'm sure that by 2006, that number is probably around 50% or better. It will be interesting to see.

When the numbers do come out from CEA - it will be 30 to 35% (assuming 100M households).

LCD PC monitors - like the one you mention - are not counted.

I think you'll be surprised. I bought a 15" LCD to put in my hobby room for this year.

does it matter if it is a 15" HD or not? at 15" you said you could not see a difference between VHS and DVD :)

I would personally not count anything under 42" because it is such a standard size but it could be streched to 37" if people want anything under that it is useless in this discussion even if the resolution is there. It was not intended to be a LR/familly display

When the numbers do come out from CEA - it will be 30 to 35% (assuming 100M households).

LCD PC monitors - like the one you mention - are not counted.


It is not an LCD PC monitor. It is a 15" LCD TV. Multiple RCA/Component/VGA inputs, built-in tuner, speakers, etc. A TV like this will be counted.

does it matter if it is a 15" HD or not? at 15" you said you could not see a difference between VHS and DVD :)

I would personally not count anything under 42" because it is such a standard size but it could be streched to 37" if people want anything under that it is useless in this discussion even if the resolution is there. It was not intended to be a LR/familly display

Yes it matters, because if this TV is in a household, that household will be considered to have a HDTV. So the percentage of households will increase, and the question was, Do as many households have a hi-def TV for the HD formats, compared to how many households had a TV at DVD launch. However, the shade of grey was how many of those TV's could benefit from DVD (a few were probably still B&W).

New numbers are up:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom021807/

Week ended Feb 4, 2007

YTD: BD 100.00 HD 48.38
SI: BD 92.56 HD 100.00

Wow, a jump in 5 for SI numbers.

New numbers are up:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom021807/

Week ended Feb 4, 2007

YTD: BD 100.00 HD 48.38
SI: BD 92.56 HD 100.00

Wow, a jump in 5 for SI numbers.

Those came out on Friday.

Those came out on Friday.

Both you and JBlacklow are right. ;)

Initial post updated.

Yes, but you assume that the PS3 will be used to play games. If it remains the cheapest BD player, many will be sold just to play BD movies. The subsidy on these "movie only" units will be lost as they get no return from game royalties.

If Toshiba sells 2 million standalone HD-DVD players this year, is Sony going to be excited to sell 2 million "movie use only" PS3's where they get no return from video game royalties?

make up your mind already. earlier you said the most PS3s would be used only for games, and never be used for BD movie viewing. now "many will be sold just to play BD movies." which one is it?

What does that mean: BD 72: HD 28 ? It should be somewhere around there I think.

make up your mind already. earlier you said the most PS3s would be used only for games, and never be used for BD movie viewing. now "many will be sold just to play BD movies." which one is it?

Actually, you should get what I said straight first.

I said the percentage used primarily as a movie player would be low, ~10-20%, meaning 80% for primarily games. I think 80% is "most". And many will be used to play only BD movies. Sony projects 10 million PS3's by years end. Multiple that by 20%, and you get what? Do you think 2 million units is not "many"?

What point are you trying to make? You point out that I'm still saying the same thing, then tell me to make up my mind. Are you confused?

It looks like the "PS3 effect" has stabilized at about 2:1 ratio.

Odd that it hasn't managed to surpassed SI yet. I had assumed it would by now.

What does that mean: BD 72: HD 28 ? It should be somewhere around there I think.



??? What are you talking about? Are you talking about percentage of market share? If so it is BD: 48.1 HD-DVD: 51.9. If you are talking YTD, it's BD: 67.4 HD-DVD: 32.6.

Is this what you meant, or are you talking about something else?

Actually, you should get what I said straight first.

I said the percentage used primarily as a movie player would be low, ~10-20%, meaning 80% for primarily games. I think 80% is "most". And many will be used to play only BD movies. Sony projects 10 million PS3's by years end. Multiple that by 20%, and you get what? Do you think 2 million units is not "many"?

What point are you trying to make? You point out that I'm still saying the same thing, then tell me to make up my mind. Are you confused?

Sony projects a lot of things. PS3 sales are stalling out and the system hasn't even been on shelves yet for 12 weeks.

Many analysts are now saying that Sony won't be able to ship the 6M systems by the end of March that they originally promised. Not due to manufacturing problems but due to inventory building at many retailers.

If they only ship the 4.5M consoles by March that many analysts are predicting I sort of doubt they are going to manage another 5.5M by year's end without some amazing titles coming out as well as a lower sticker price.

It looks like the "PS3 effect" has stabilized at about 2:1 ratio.

Odd that it hasn't managed to surpassed SI yet. I had assumed it would by now.

I dunno. Looks like the lead is growing to me. You cannot go from 87 to 92 SI without hitting the magical 70% number.

??? What are you talking about? Are you talking about percentage of market share? If so it is BD: 48.1 HD-DVD: 51.9. If you are talking YTD, it's BD: 67.4 HD-DVD: 32.6.

Is this what you meant, or are you talking about something else?

Jan 27- Feb 04.

I dunno. Looks like the lead is growing to me. You cannot go from 87 to 92 SI without hitting the magical 70% number.



Jan 27- Feb 04.

I'm not sure what you mean by that last part. But if you look at YTD or weekly, it looks pretty constant at ~2:1 to me. But maybe I'm not looking at it right.

It looks like the "PS3 effect" has stabilized at about 2:1 ratio.

Odd that it hasn't managed to surpassed SI yet. I had assumed it would by now.

I think it is odd that the ratio hasn't really increased much. If those PS3's were flying off shelves, then the "PS3 effect" should continue to gain momentum. However, if the number of new PS3's sold remains small, they won't have much effect on increasing the 2:1 ratio. The PS3 isn't content starved as far as new releases, so the only two reasons I can think of for that 2:1 ratio to not continue to increase because of the "PS3 effect" is that sales have slowed to a crawl, or HD-DVD players sales have ramped up to keep pace with the volume of PS3 sales.

Either way, it is good news for HD-DVD. Either the PS3 is selling poorly or the HD-DVD players are selling enough to keep pace with the PS3. I expect to see that 2:1 margin erode in March/April.

March and April sales will be even more important as the one time effects off the PS3 launch sales promotions attrite out and we start to see what the sustained attached rates of the PS3 and the HD A2 are.

I had a thought on the Blu-ray sales numbers. A page or so back, someone linked an Australian press release by the BD Association that was just a few days old. In the release, Sony stated they were selling 45,000 Blu-ray discs a week.

Now, the estimates in this forum are showing that BD would need to average 40,000+ disc sales a week, to have the effect it has had on SI, assuming that Nielsen has tracked a similar volume of sales as NPD.

Would Sony include a NPD/Nielsen number that is limited to the US only (not even all of North America) in an Austrailian press release? Or is Sony really saying in their release that world wide, they are selling 45000 discs per week. If so, that would mean at least 40,000 of them are being sold in the US, and 5000 or less to all the rest of the world. If this is the case, won't the global format war be settled by the US? I realize some countries are just now ramping up (like Australia), but at best, maybe all the rest of the world combined would represent 50% of the market, and the US alone is the other 50%. If so, does it matter if BD does better in Japan or elsewhere?

Or, could it be that the Nielsen numbers are based on a much smaller number of tracked sales than what the NPD numbers are based on. Then we are making a huge error by assuming Nielsen would have tracked a similar number of sales as NPD. What if Nielson tracked half as many, or less? Would the Nielsen numbers have much value if that is the case?

Just something that crossed my mind today.

March and April sales will be even more important as the one time effects off the PS3 launch sales promotions attrite out and we start to see what the sustained attached rates of the PS3 and the HD A2 are.

I also got thinking about bundles the other today. Almost every PS3 that I saw for sale on the web in Nov. and Dec. was part of a bundle. Most of those bundles included at least one additional movie (usually X-Men 3), or the choice of two BD titles. Wouldn't these bundled items be counted as a POS for Nielsen/NPD? They aren't packed in freebie. You do pay for them and often had a choice as to which movie you wanted (so they weren't manufacturer bundles with a single UPC). You are just required to purchase them to get the PS3.

Now you can easily get a 60 GB PS3 online without a bundle (even though many of them are still bundles). Could this "bundle effect" also serve to skew sales of BD software somewhat? We should see that effect die off now too as non-bundle PS3's are readily available.

It said in the press release that it was for the United States alone, sheesh.

The amount of spin in the last five posts...

All right, I took my calculations from the napkin to Excel, and I stand corrected. Your estimate, while different, is much closer.

I started with the assumption that Nielsen saw the same number of combined unit sales as NPD (877,000) for the week through Feb. 4. The difference with Nielsen that they are seeing a slightly different distribution between the two formats. I used the Nielsen ratios so far, as well as the data they provided to PC Magazine.

Since Jan. 1, I get an average of ~40,562 BD discs per week and ~19,996 HD-DVD discs per week.

Does that really change my analysis. Let's say Nielsen catches 50% of software sales, and 50% of hardware sales. This means by now they should be logging 500,000 PS3's. Add in around another 30,000 standalones caught at the same 50% rate. This means a average weekly attach rate of .077 discs per BD player, or one movie per 13 BD players each week.

Let's guess that by now, HD-DVD has sold 250,000 hardware sales, and Nielsen has caught 50% of those, or 125,000. It means HD-DVD is seeing a weekly attache rate of .160 discs per HD-DVD player, or one movie per 6.25 HD-DVD players each week.

Or if you want to spin this number, you could say even though BD is outselling HD-DVD 2:1, the need around twice as many players on the market to sell one disc. Otherwise, Blu-ray needs to sell 4X as many players to get 2X as many disc sales. Which situation has the better economy?I wanted to point out some things from this analysis before. The above numbers (with their assumptions) work out to annualized attatch rates of 4.0 for Blu-ray and 8.3 for HD DVD so far this year. Sony knew when they decided to employ their strategy that total disc sales were what mattered more than attach rates or hardware unit volumes by themselves, which I'm guessing is one reason they didn't take a different strategy to do something like a license fee or USB key before people could play BD movies on PS3s, in order to keep those from being counted as players until the owner did something that indicated that they would be using it for Blu-ray movies. A system where the PS3 owners wouldn't count as Blu-ray movie player owners unless they paid more money (more like the XBOX360 add-on) would have been likely to have a higher attach rate, but a lower number of movies sold.

People should have known even a year ago that Blu-ray should have a lower attach rate just because of the PS3 strategy vs the XBOX360 strategy. If Microsoft gave every XBOX360 owner an add-on for free then the attach rates would be likely to fall, but the total number of movies sold rise. I'm sure the studios know that the attach rates are just a piece that gets them to what they care about and just because a strategy will lead to lower attach rates doesn't mean that strategy won't lead to more movies sold.

--Darin

It looks like the "PS3 effect" has stabilized at about 2:1 ratio.Just to point this out but that would be for movie sales during the week that Toshiba had their $200 HD DVD rebate promotion if you bought both a Toshiba HDTV and HD DVD player. In my opinion it is somewhat impressive that not only did Blu-ray hold its ground but actually gained a bit during that week.

Just to point this out but that would be for movie sales during the week that Toshiba had their $200 HD DVD rebate promotion if you bought both a Toshiba HDTV and HD DVD player. In my opinion it is somewhat impressive that not only did Blu-ray hold its ground but actually gained a bit during that week.

Also note that I believe there was a buy 1 get 1 free Blu-ray promotion going on at BB of memory serves.

I'll be interested to see what the departed does to the numbers.

Also note that I believe there was a buy 1 get 1 free Blu-ray promotion going on at BB of memory serves.

I'll be interested to see what the departed does to the numbers.

Agreed! It will be interesting to see the next two weeks worth of numbers as next week's numbers will count "Hollywoodland" for HD DVD. While I don't expect it to set the charts ablaze, it's probably a film that will appeal to the HD DVD crowd. The week after that should be interesting as well because of "The Departed"... and will probably be the most interesting numbers we see until "Casino Royale" comes out next month.

As far Best Buy goes, you are correct that the promotion began on 02/04, but it ended on 02/10, so the majority of the numbers shouldn't be seen until next week's numbers.

I took advantage of that deal since I'm beginning to suspect that I will be going Blu-Ray this May. I got "Underworld: Evolution", and "Into The Blue" for free... but since I purchased it on the night of the 10th, they didn't ship it until the 12th, so mine probably won't be counted on next week's either.

~Alan

It said in the press release that it was for the United States alone, sheesh.

The amount of spin in the last five posts...


Oops, you right, it does. I didn't remember the "In the United States, " that proceeded their comments.

Shucks, I guess that means the rest of the world does matter... :mad: ;)

I dunno. Looks like the lead is growing to me. You cannot go from 87 to 92 SI without hitting the magical 70% number.



Jan 27- Feb 04.


Are you trying to calculate the weekly market share? I thought it had already been established that you can't do that unless you know the ratio of that weeks volume to previous weeks.

Are you trying to calculate the weekly market share? I thought it had already been established that you can't do that unless you know the ratio of that weeks volume to previous weeks.

I think he is and you are right, but since HD DVD did go down (lost ground) it does mean that BD is widening the lead (i.e. this week BD did greater then the rest of the year).

So when Skogan said BD is stable at 2:1, it is wrong. It is most likely not stable and it is definitely larger then 2:1

So when Skogan said BD is stable at 2:1, it is wrong. It is most likely not stable and it is definitely larger then 2:1

Well I didn't mean exactly stable at 2:1.

More or less, BD is outselling HD DVD by 2:1, and that isn't changing much from week to week, it now looks.

It can be changing much from week to week, that is the point. The simple fact that it is growing in the YTD means that each week sinse the begining of the year it has been higher (but necesserily increasing). BD could have outsold HD DVD 4:1 or 5:1 last week and you could make the numbers work. The only thing that we can say is that it is defdinetly >2:1 how much higher is hard to say

It can be changing much from week to week, that is the point. The simple fact that it is growing in the YTD means that each week sinse the begining of the year it has been higher (but necesserily increasing). BD could have outsold HD DVD 4:1 or 5:1 last week and you could make the numbers work. The only thing that we can say is that it is defdinetly >2:1 how much higher is hard to sayThe last week was probably fairly close to the week before (which was 68.8 for Blu-ray) based on how much the YTD went up, so probably about 2.2:1. Or pretty close to skogan's 2:1.

--Darin

The last week was probably fairly close to the week before (which was 68.8 for Blu-ray) based on how much the YTD went up, so probably about 2.2:1. Or pretty close to skogan's 2:1.

Darin, if I am not mistaken, that 68.8 was calculated in someone's post and not calculated from the original sales numbers. The issue is you can't use ratios in that way without making some major assumptions.

Are you trying to calculate the weekly market share? I thought it had already been established that you can't do that unless you know the ratio of that weeks volume to previous weeks.

Incorrect. There IS (barely) enough data. I tried it on Friday and made a (very small) mistake, but I just reworked my math and checked it and my figures are now internally consistent.

The basis for this is that, while we do not know the absolute disc volumes discussed, we can track the relative disc volumes by observing the changes in the YTD and SI figures. Even that would not be enough, except that PC Magazine was also kind enough to supply enough weekly relative sales data to match two clean data points (1/21 and 1/28), which gives us a gold standard to measure by.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=804778

Weekly sales ratios for 1/29/07 to 2/4/07:


Weekly sales for 2/4/07:
Blu-ray 100
HD-DVD 45

Adjusted percentages 2/4/07
Blu-ray 69.0
HD-DVD 31.0

If you disagree with my conclusion, the algebraic math with logic is provided in its entirety in the linked thread.

As an interesting tidbit, per my calculations:

Weekly Blu-ray disc sales fell by -4.17%
Weekly HD-DVD disc sales fell by -5.01%

Aside to Darin: According to my calculations, the ratio of BD to HD in this time period was 2.2238 to 1 in favor of Blu-ray.

Aside to AnthonyP: You don't need absolute sales volumes to do projections on relative sales volumes, since the relation between Weekly, YTD, and SI are known for 1/21 to 1/28. We can use that data to extrapolate relative values for any of those three as long as two of the three are known for any given week. I made no assumptions in my calculations, and used only the data provided by Nielsen/VideoScan from the article in PC Magazine plus what Home Media Magazine has published. All other figures are directly extrapolated from these numbers.

If my calculations here are correct, that means that around 1 in 24 of all HD-DVD discs sold since inception were sold between 1/21 and 1/28.This means that Blu-ray sold a bit under 1/9th of all of its discs in the week between 1/21 and 1/28. Obviously if correct for the reported universe that means that Blu-ray sales have accelerated if 1/9 of the sales occurred in the week since Blu-ry has be out since last summer.

But if 1/24 of total HD DVD sales occured in that week, that would also mean that HD DVD sales have also accelerated, obviously not as much as Blu-ray, but greater than they were earlier in the year. HD DVD sales have at least held steady, despite the lack of new titles being released, which would imply that new owners are maintaining a high attach rate.

HD DVD sales don't appear to have fallen, even though Blu-ray sales have risen, and thats showing from the long term since inception and 45 day out Amazon charts we have available.

Originally Posted by Kosty
The importance of attach rates is that they can predict sustained sales over time that can be increased quicker by increasing the installed player base.Originally Posted by AnthonyP
actually the opposite is true. A player in the home means that if a person wants to buy a movie he wants he can. Also attach rate should naturally drop to a reasonable level as the players gain market share. Thats certainly Sony's hope on the PS3. But the PS3 has been delayed and may be falling short of Sony's sales projections.

Attach rates for the PS3 can certainly change, But that's asking for a consumer behavior change for the device. The first batch of PS3 owners were also including a lot of first adopter Blu-ray owners, but that may not carry over to a larger purchase pool.

If Blu-ray became as cheap as DVD maybe people more will convert over, but for the most part a consumer will normally not change his behavior dramatically after purchase. Sony is indeed trying to buck that trend. But trying to enlarge an attach rate after the device is in the home is behavior modification. Its just never been done on the scale Sony is hoping for here. Its a huge gamble on Sony's part.

What HD DVD has on the other hand is a simpler issue. It has to produce and sell 1/8 or so as many standalone players that are currently selling below the PS3 price point. If the attach rate stays close to what it has to be, its a much simpler CE manufacturing and marketing task. HD DVD simply has to sell less units at a lower price to keep up.

Originally Posted by mrsmith
Latest numbers show total Blu-Ray capable players(PS3s + standalones) at about 1.1 million in the US vs about 225,000 total HD-DVD capable. Amazon hi-def disk sale numbers are that HD-DVDs account for about 1 in 3, or even 1 in 2. So, if all these numbers are even reasonably accurate, then HD-DVD disk sales, on a proportional basis, are actually outselling BluRay

That's the advantage of a huge attach rate disparity. It leverages the existing installed base for the software. Software can always be produced faster than hardware, and the existing software base is new again to every new player owner.

There needs to be a critical mass of software to support an individuals player purchase decision and a critical mass of players available to support a software release from the content providers.

But once those critical masses are reached a type of chain reaction can result with a positive virtuous circle being created.

One possibility is that HD DVD sales may dramatically increase when the new 2007 releases finally arrive as there will be more dedicated HD DVD player homes to sell them too.

Most DVD sales occur within 90 days of a release. It pretty remarkable that older catalog titles are still selling well on HD DVD. One very probable explanation is that they are being sold to new player owners.

^^^ You also push the idea that HD DVD folk are happy with DVD upscaling, and aren't concerned with missing out on BD exclusive titles.

How can you consolidate that opinion and the idea above that HD DVD folk would be eager to replace their DVD?

Gary

I don't think attach rate is important for this discussion. Only the gross amount of movies being sold.

Shane Butler Blog on UlitamteAV
Is The Format War Over? (http://blog.ultimateavmag.com/shanebuettner/21407formatwar/)

This seemed the best thread to put this. I don't really consider blogs "news" (unless they offer something newsworthy). Anyways, you can get the just of it from the quote below.

And indeed, while HD DVD's supporters might point to Blu-ray's big January merely as a reflection of Blu-ray's releasing more titles, that's the point entirely. Blu-ray has more studios and it wouldn't be surprising if more titles are released on BD (and therefore sold) in perpetuity. If January's ratios of 2:1 are maintained or even extended throughout this year, will HD DVD still be a viable format? While some have prognosticated that this format war might last years, at least in terms of two formats being available, 2007 might be the year that decides the actual winner.

Going back to Amazon briefly.. i was checking to see if Children Of Men was up for pre-order yet, which it wasn't. So i clicked on what was listed..

http://www.amazon.com/Children-Men-Clive-Owen/dp/B000N6TX22/sr=1-4/qid=1171989326/ref=sr_1_4/104-7273029-3935142?ie=UTF8&s=dvd

http://www.amazon.com/Children-Men-Widescreen-Clive-Owen/dp/B000N6TX1S/sr=1-2/qid=1171989326/ref=pd_bbs_sr_2/104-7273029-3935142?ie=UTF8&s=dvd

despite not being available to order at all, they both have sales rankings and one is 15,000 above the other.. they're way way down in the list but nonetheless, what constitutes a sale in this situation??? There must be some other criteria that adds to the rankings too then.. surely they can't include people who have signed up for alerts???

I don't think attach rate is important for this discussion. Only the gross amount of movies being sold.


Why not? None of us here know the criteria for studios to produce in BD or HD-DVD. No one can produce a list of criteria that one format must meet before it can claim "victory" over the other format. Attach rate is calculated using the Nielsen ratios and common estimates. I think it definately has a place in this discussion.

Attach rate isn't important? Its probably the highest criteria the studios will use to predict future sales when its combined with the installed base? Current sales statistics serve to validate that calculation.

Blu-ray fans did not like to talk about Amazon or any other sales figures when that data was not suportive of Blu-ray.

In this context, attach rate is important because it can be a leading indicator of what HD DVD sales will be after new titles are released and for what Blu-ray sales will be in the future.

Going back to Amazon briefly.. i was checking to see if Children Of Men was up for pre-order yet, which it wasn't. So i clicked on what was listed..

http://www.amazon.com/Children-Men-Clive-Owen/dp/B000N6TX22/sr=1-4/qid=1171989326/ref=sr_1_4/104-7273029-3935142?ie=UTF8&s=dvd

http://www.amazon.com/Children-Men-Widescreen-Clive-Owen/dp/B000N6TX1S/sr=1-2/qid=1171989326/ref=pd_bbs_sr_2/104-7273029-3935142?ie=UTF8&s=dvd

despite not being available to order at all, they both have sales rankings and one is 15,000 above the other.. they're way way down in the list but nonetheless, what constitutes a sale in this situation??? There must be some other criteria that adds to the rankings too then.. surely they can't include people who have signed up for alerts??? Where do you see they have Amazon rankings for the HD releases. At least they are not on the dvdwars or hd game db tracking charts.

Maybe they have some private non- public related sales they are tracking?

I don't think attach rate is important for this discussion. Only the gross amount of movies being sold. Why, because that simple factor currently favors Blu-ray?

Sales figures are important, seeing the trends as they change and analyzing them , including why they are happening is even more so.

edit: deleted

I agree that current Blu-ray sales rate is an advantage.

But if it is based on an low attach rate, then that means the volume of PS3 must be consistently high to sustain it or the Blu-ray attach rate must be changed. But if that currently low attach rate for Blu-ray is juiced temporarily by promotions BOGO and rebates, it may not be as sustainable as the HD DVD attach rate over the long term. The PS3 attach rate also has a one time surger of Blu-ray first adopters inherent in its early sales.

Attach rate isn't important? Its probably the highest criteria the studios will use to predict future sales when its combined with the installed base? Current sales statistics serve to validate that calculation.

Blu-ray fans did not like to talk about Amazon or any other sales figures when that data was not suportive of Blu-ray.

In this context, attach rate is important because it can be a leading indicator of what HD DVD sales will be after new titles are released and for what Blu-ray sales will be in the future.

Attach rate is important when you are selling your product (XBOX 360 for example) at a loss, and plan to make up for it with software sales. In that scenario, it's important to know how much software is being sold per hardware.

But in this situation, the people who make the hardware may not even be the same people who make the soft ware. For example, why would Fox care what the PS3 attach rate is? So long as the PS3 sells lots of disc, it doesn't matter whether that is due to a high attach rate or a high volume of PS3s.

Since most of the studios don't make CE products, they shouldn't really care what the attach rate is. They probably only care how many movies they can sell.

Skogan, you're 100% correct attach rate is not a major metric for a software vendor. They are to a hardware vendor trying to show that they can generate the same sames with fewer units. However if you are a hardware vendor selling at a loss, a low attach rate means your road to making it up with software sales is much longer. So, Sony would care about a low attach rate, but Fox and Disney only indirectly....

A very low attach rate may render a business model unviable at some point. This of course depends on the subsidy of the hardware and profit per software unit sold.

If someone asked me what I thought it would take for BD to win the format war, I'd say attachment rate. If the PS3 movie attachment rate is the same as HD DVD players - I am afraid it is all over. Unless, HD DVD can find a player what will sell at the same rate as the PS3. That cannot happen unless MSFT puts an internal HD DVD drive in the xbox, and to do that, they'll want to own the format outright and perhaps have a share in a studio :)

Skogan, you're 100% correct attach rate is not a major metric for a software vendor. They are to a hardware vendor trying to show that they can generate the same sames with fewer units. However if you are a hardware vendor selling at a loss, a low attach rate means your road to making it up with software sales is much longer. So, Sony would care about a low attach rate, but Fox and Disney only indirectly....

A very low attach rate may render a business model unviable at some point. This of course depends on the subsidy of the hardware and profit per software unit sold.
Agreed.

Fortunately for Sony, there are many types of software that can be utilized with the PS3 (the machine with lowest HD Optical attach rate;) all of which, Sony has a stake in the profits of.

If by Christmas-time, the PS3 has not sold many games, there could be trouble.

If someone asked me what I thought it would take for BD to win the format war, I'd say attachment rate. If the PS3 movie attachment rate is the same as HD DVD players - I am afraid it is all over. Unless, HD DVD can find a player what will sell at the same rate as the PS3. That cannot happen unless MSFT puts an internal HD DVD drive in the xbox, and to do that, they'll want to own the format outright and perhaps have a share in a studio :)

While you might say "attachment rate", what you are really describing is total sales. Because it wouldn't matter if the PS3 had an attach rate of 1000 per unit, if they only sold three of them. And if MS put the HD DVD add on internal to the 360, that attach rate would be lower, yet you would like that because total sells would increase.

If you think attach rate is most important, then you should hope MS doesn't add an internal HD DVD drive to their 360. If you think total sells is more important, you might want them to add the drive.

and to do that, they'll want to own the format outright and perhaps have a share in a studio :)
Good one. ;)

^^^ You also push the idea that HD DVD folk are happy with DVD upscaling, and aren't concerned with missing out on BD exclusive titles.

How can you consolidate that opinion and the idea above that HD DVD folk would be eager to replace their DVD?

Gary DVD upscaling is a factor that satisfies HD DVD owners at this time mainly as a post purchase decision. HD DVD marketing materials and advertising will probably start to push that thought, as a secondary reason to justify a player purchase as it is a benefit and an advantage to HD DVD. The idea of"making you current collection of DVDs look better at near HD quality" can be seen to reduce risk.

But at this moment, I thinks it mostly a post decision factor. The high level of DVD upscaling in my HD DVD players have definitely taken away my urgency to rush out and buy a Blu-ray player. I probably will in the future, but I am in no hurry about it at the current Blu-ray prices points. I love HD and consider Blu-ray a step up but I will upscale those Blu-ray titles in the near future as the upscaling is a more that tolerable measure for me in the meantime.

The HD DVD sales so far seem to indicate that HD DVD owners seem to be willing to replace a lot of their older DVD catalog titles with HD DVD versions. Blu-ray has had less classic catalog titles out, so it a bit tougher to tell, but it seems clear that the Blu-ray strategy is still tilting toward recent Hollywood films, day and date stuff, and less on classics titles.

That's an advantage for Blu-ray as they have more recent hits in their catalog, but its also an inherent strategy in Blu-ray's blockbuster hit title approach compared to HD DVD deeper wider more catalog based approach.

I don't think that HD DVD folk will be as eager to crave to replace their existing DVDs with HD DVD because of the upscaling. But in my own case, I know that if I have a favorite coming out in HD DVD and I already own it, if want that last double dip to get the best version available.

But if its out on Blu-ray , I compromise and watch the upconverted version. I realize its a compromise when I do it, I'd rather have the HD version, but I'm not willing to dive into Blu-ray yet at the current price point for the few titles I really crave. I'll watch Terminator and T2 upconverted and then watch the T3 in HD DVD. But as soon as I can get it, I'll buy the HD DVD version, but that not enough to flip me to a Blu-ray player yet.

Once I've bought into teh format, the new release of a classic title is enough to tickle my interest and I will buy it or rent it because the cost is still low enough for that disc purchase. When I see something out on Blu-ray, i just mutter under my breadth and watch the upconverted version, because I'm not willing to pay $599 plus fro a standalone Blu-ray player yet, that isn't future proof BD-Live capable.

That's just me, but I think it applies to a lot of people.

Hope that answered your question.

edit: quoted comment from Skogan deleted

Oops. Confused myself when jumping to this thread. :o

I edited my post above to delete that comment.

I was wrong and I made a mistake, Sorry.

I think the attach rates for both formats will become dilluted over time as the early adopters are phased out by more main stream adopters. Hence installed base will be the bigger factor in the total sales equation.

One last try.

The number of sales of additional items for every base unit of hardware is important to the studios as it is an inherent part of the calculation of potential sales volume.

Thats one of the reasons the HD DVD PRG mentions the attach rate in their press releases.

The installed base of players times the average disc purchases per player gives a idea of the market potential. The larger the attach rate and the larger the number of players sold the bigger the potential profits in selling to that potential universe of owners.

I think the attach rates for both formats will become dilluted over time as the early adopters are phased out by more main stream adopters. Hence installed base will be the bigger factor in the total sales equation. Probably true for that factor. But the attach rate may even go up if there is more titles available for purchase.

Both formats sales are still probably limited because of the limited numbers of releases available.

The long term attach rates are still in flux because of those factors.

skogan, what I was referring to is that with the PS3 BD clearly has a massive hardware lead and there is no product on the HD DVD side that can match it. This as you point out is because Sony has multiple revenue streams attached to the PS3.

However, currently PS3 owners on avg appear to be buying fewer movies than HD DVD owners. Thereby keeping HD DVD in the game. However if PS3 owners buy at the same rate as HD DVD owners, the combination of a higher rate and more hardware would make the advantage overwhelming.

Now, if it can be shown via the PS3 that console owners buy movies at the same rate as stand alone owners, MSFT may be incentivized to include an HD Drive for movies. But MSFT needs a revenue stream to justify it.

I edited my post above to delete that comment.
.

No problem, I thought that was kind of a strange thing to say :)

I deleted my responses then.

Still no hard numbers. When will they stop these stupid ratios and release real sales figures?

What I would still like to know is how the rental market is doing.

BD could be ahead 4:1, for all we know. It is my belief that the most likely scenario is that, due to the PS3 and it's BD-fairweather owners, the rental market for BD is even better than its current sales.

I bet the studios know. ;)

Attach rate is important when you are selling your product (XBOX 360 for example) at a loss, and plan to make up for it with software sales. In that scenario, it's important to know how much software is being sold per hardware.

But in this situation, the people who make the hardware may not even be the same people who make the soft ware. For example, why would Fox care what the PS3 attach rate is? So long as the PS3 sells lots of disc, it doesn't matter whether that is due to a high attach rate or a high volume of PS3s.

Since most of the studios don't make CE products, they shouldn't really care what the attach rate is. They probably only care how many movies they can sell.

Fox cares about attach rate, because if the attach rate is 3 per PS3, and 8 studios release movies, what are the chances that one of the 3 movies is a Fox movie? Face it, attach rate is an important metric for studios and factors into their decision making, along with total volume, etc.

Still no hard numbers. When will they stop these stupid ratios and release real sales figures? Rarely.

And never on a short term basis. And never will they give exact figures per sales outlet. Theres a lot of competive mojo at stake and the information is pooled together with some restrictions on its release.

Individual companies are free to disclose their numbers if they choose.

But why should they?

Its remarkable that we have this much information publically to play with. :)

If someone asked me what I thought it would take for BD to win the format war, I'd say attachment rate. If the PS3 movie attachment rate is the same as HD DVD players - I am afraid it is all over. Unless, HD DVD can find a player what will sell at the same rate as the PS3. That cannot happen unless MSFT puts an internal HD DVD drive in the xbox, and to do that, they'll want to own the format outright and perhaps have a share in a studio :)

I think Microsoft should buy MGM when it goes up for sale in a few years. Then they could really start to compete with Sony.

I think the attach rates for both formats will become dilluted over time as the early adopters are phased out by more main stream adopters. Hence installed base will be the bigger factor in the total sales equation.

Attach rate becomes even more important as early adopters are phased out. Early adopters tend to buy more than regular consumers.

Like MSNBC it could be MSMGM? :D

well they have the cash...... talk about something that would freak some people out....

besides, I don't even know MSFTs' current stake in MSNBC

Fox cares about attach rate, because if the attach rate is 3 per PS3, and 8 studios release movies, what are the chances that one of the 3 movies is a Fox movie? Face it, attach rate is an important metric for studios and factors into their decision making, along with total volume, etc.

What difference does it make whether there were 10M PS3's sold with a 3X attach rate, versus 5M PS3's sold with a 6X attach rate? Fox sells the exact same number of movies in the end either way.

And that is what is important, the number of movies you sell in the end. The total volume. You only want a high attach rate as a means to that end. It doesn't matter what the attach rate is if the voume is high. It doesn't matter what the attach rate is if the volume is low.

What I would still like to know is how the rental market is doing.

BD could be ahead 4:1, for all we know. It is my belief that the most likely scenario is that, due to the PS3 and it's BD-fairweather owners, the rental market for BD is even better than its current sales.

I bet the studios know. ;)

No where in my area rents either.

Attach rate becomes even more important as early adopters are phased out. Early adopters tend to buy more than regular consumers. Long term attach rates tend to stabilize as time goes on and are difficult to change.

I agree that early adopters tend to buy more but there's been a consistent scarcity of new content that has skewed attach rates downward.

Thats why if the current new HD DVD owner attach rate is similar to the very first owners, that would imply that HD DVD is still in an early adopter phase or that the early majority phase is maintaining a high attach rate as well. If that's true, that is some good news for that format.

What difference does it make whether there were 10M PS3's sold with a 3X attach rate, versus 5M PS3's sold with a 6X attach rate? Fox sells the exact same number of movies in the end either way.

And that is what is important, the number of movies you sell in the end. The total volume. You only want a high attach rate as a means to that end. It doesn't matter what the attach rate is if the voume is high. It doesn't matter what the attach rate is if the volume is low. One last last try. ;)

A high attach rate is important because less sales volume of the base unit needs to be sold to lever higher attached software sales.

The attach rate is the amount of leverage you have to move software sales.

The higher the attach rate is over time, the less hardware sales are needed to generate the desired software sales. Or the higher the installed base, and teh higher the attach rate is. the larger the potential market size is. You can also estimate the potential sales based on projected hardware sales, if you have a good handle on the attach rate.

No where in my area rents either.
Does anyone in your area have mailboxes?

How 'bout mail slots?

P.O. boxes?

What about computers with internet? Any of those in your area?

Though you don't even need a computer, you can make your mail orders at your local BB.