I think the attach rates for both formats will become dilluted over time as the early adopters are phased out by more main stream adopters. Hence installed base will be the bigger factor in the total sales equation.

I think everyone in the last page of posts in this thread is arguing two sides of the same coin.

Average Total Sales = Total Install Base x Average Attachment Rate

Hardware vendors who are selling at a loss (Sony on PS3, probably Toshiba on the HD-A1 and possibly on the HD-A2) and hoping to recoup the loss on licensing will be most interested in the Average Attachment Rate, as too low of an attachment rate will produce a net loss on each unit sold. This isn't a hard and fast rule, however, because production costs for all units trend downward over time - once the cost to manufacture falls below the wholesale price, the unit is profitable and attachment rate becomes a non-issue for hardware manufacturers.

Software vendors (read: studios) are interested only in Total Sales. They don't care whether they get to that point with a large install base with moderate attachment rate, or a smaller install base with a great attachment rate.

This isn't to say that a large install base + low attach rate is the same as small install base + high attach rate, however. The reason? Marketing.

You can market the heck out of something to force the attachment rate on any given title to improve above the average, but if a format already has good attachment rate, marketing will not be very effective.

Movie studios know that there are certain titles in their new releases and catalogs that are simply "must haves" for any format owner, and that if they can get the word out that such a product is available, the attach rate will already be high for such titles, regardless of what the average is. Recent films that did reasonably well at the box office also fall into this category.

As such, I would expect that studios would prefer to see a larger potential pool than a more enthusiastic buying demographic.

Attach rates are important when the player sale base is rapidly expanding as in te case of both HD DVD and Blu-ray because it allows a method to anticipate future sales volumes. therefore it is important to studios and other smaller vendors to predict the possible profit on a new release.

Total disc sales can very for a lot of reasons over a given period and must somehow be adjusted when the installed base is expanding.

Attach rate is associated with the primary base item. Its not usually used as a term together linking it with a specific software title.

Total player sales or units in the field is an important consideration as the higher the base teh more niche markets are created..

If someone asked me what I thought it would take for BD to win the format war, I'd say attachment rate. If the PS3 movie attachment rate is the same as HD DVD players - I am afraid it is all over. Unless, HD DVD can find a player what will sell at the same rate as the PS3. That cannot happen unless MSFT puts an internal HD DVD drive in the xbox, and to do that, they'll want to own the format outright and perhaps have a share in a studio :)
The PS3 attach rate will never be the same as for either HD or BD players - game players are an entirely different cohort, and they will own the vast majority of PS3's (IMO) They won't spend much time watching movies, or at least as much as the HD and BD fans here, so will have lower attach rates. Probably be much lower.

I think we all agree that given a fixed number of players, a higher attachment rate is a good thing. The problem I see with using attachment rate is when it misleads. For instance, we all knew a year ago that the approach Sony was taking would be likely to lead to a lower attachment rate than the approach that Toshiba and Microsoft took. But that it could lead to more overall sales even with a lower attachment rate.

As I see it, a person who is ignorant of the above or feigns ignorance of that can mislead by acting like whichever format has the higher attachment rate is looking better, even given the different strategies employed. Because of the strategies employed, if HD DVD and Blu-ray had the same attachment rates even when all the PS3s are included and are counted with the same weight as whole players, then HD DVD would be in deep trouble in this war. They need a higher attachment rate given the way that Microsoft sells a seperate attachment for HD playback with their game machine and so only the units where people specifically spend a fair amount of money to get HD movie playback count in the divisor of (software sold) / (number of players) and that the rest are basically all standalones purchased specifically for HD movie playback from discs.

I'm sure there is some crossover point where HD DVD needs some multiple higher attachment rate than Blu-ray to be looking good compared to them in the war, but I don't know what it is. I know it isn't 1.0 and I would hope that people wouldn't act like it is 1.0. Given the number of sales of hardware units for each side, even 2.0 would not look very healthy for HD DVD at this point and would be a sign that something needed to change from the current trend (like sell a lot more players, get their attachment rates up, or hope that attachment rates for the PS3 plummet).

Put another way, a person could ask if increasing attachment rates would be a smart move and think the answer is, "Yes", despite the fact that Sony could do things that would increase their attachment rate (like force people to buy another piece of hardware that would attach to the PS3 before they could play BDs), but that would lower software sales. So, might be dumb moves even if they increased the attachment rates.

Basically, a stance like, "But our attachment rates are higher" doesn't mean much if the strategy employed required much higher attachment rates than the competition and some idea of the ratio of attachment rates isn't given.

--Darin

Let's take a guess at PS3 attach rates. If the early adopter characteristics are about the same in both cohorts (HiDef and Gamers), their disposable incomes are about the same. Given 4 HiDef movies cost about the same as 1 Game, something like [80] % of PS3 owners will have 1/4 the number of movie titles as do the other [20]% of PS3 owners who bought it for movies. I would also suspect that the majority of those will buy at least 1 game per year, or 4 less movies. So, if the annual attach rate for non-PS3 HiDef players is 20, PS3-HiDef owners attach rate will be 16, and Gamers 4.

Having not paid any attention to forecast player sales, how does this work out?

Darin;

I agree that attachment rates by themselves mean nothing. They must be given in context.

I also think that the HD DVD PRG was stretching the point to covert a 8.3 early attacment rate and convert that to a very high annual rate.

For 2006, total $ spent on DVD (sell thr') was 15B. Assuming 100M dvd players, that is $150 per household or some 10 to 15 DVDs attach rate per year.

For 2006, total $ spent on DVD (sell thr') was 15B. Assuming 100M dvd players, that is $150 per household or some 10 to 15 DVDs attach rate per year.I'm pretty sure that the article in October about the HD DVD group claiming a 28 annualized attachment rate said that DVD players have about a 15 lifetime attachment rate.

--Darin

I'm pretty sure that the article in October about the HD DVD group claiming a 28 annualized attachment rate said that DVD players have about a 15 lifetime attachment rate.

That was my idea as well.

So, how do we square that with the 15B sell thr' revenue in 2007 ?

http://www.videobusiness.com/info/CA6411771.html

Unless we assume the 15 lifetime attachment rate practically means 1year, since the dvd players have very high failure rate ;)

Anyway, I'm looking at the rates as per household rather than dvd players.

PS : Total sell thr' is 15.9B, with 15.65B was accounted for by DVD.

http://www.videobusiness.com/contents/images/YearEnd-TotalSellThrough06-Pie.jpg

Let's take a guess at PS3 attach rates. If the early adopter characteristics are about the same in both cohorts (HiDef and Gamers), their disposable incomes are about the same. Given 4 HiDef movies cost about the same as 1 Game, something like [80] % of PS3 owners will have 1/4 the number of movie titles as do the other [20]% of PS3 owners who bought it for movies. I would also suspect that the majority of those will buy at least 1 game per year, or 4 less movies. So, if the annual attach rate for non-PS3 HiDef players is 20, PS3-HiDef owners attach rate will be 16, and Gamers 4.

Having not paid any attention to forecast player sales, how does this work out?
While disposable income is always a factor, for both gamers and movie watchers, their funds for this hobby come primarily from a "slush fund" of excess income that they earmark for each purpose.

However, disposable income earmarked for these activities is not a zero sum game. Take myself for instance; I'm primarily a gamer, but I enjoy movies. Prior to the advent of HD, I was probably attaching about 6 DVDs per year, but I was hitting the theatres at least once a month, sometimes more often depending on what releases I was interested in.

Now that I have HD entertainment available to me, I've sliced away the theatre part of my budget in favor of HD content at home, since I like the convenience and ownership factors, while closing the gap on quality of presentation. This has in no way affected my spending habits on games; I still buy the games I want, I still spend on gaming equipment, and that hasn't changed at all. I've simply moved more disposable income from elsewhere in my spending habits to accomodate a new activity.

If anything, my net spending on gaming + movies has almost doubled in the past year.

So for myself, at least, I choose not to sacrifice either one, and I know I'm not the only one who does so.

Which studios are enjoying the most sales?

Blu-ray supporting studios (7)
Sony Pictures
Fox
Disney
Lions Gate
Warner Brothers
Paramount
MGM

HD DVD supporting studios (3)
Universal
Warner Brothers
Paramount


If we assume studios selling a given format get an equal share of sales for each market served and that Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD 2:1 (2000/1000)then:

For every 2000 Blu-ray discs sold each participating Blu-ray supporting studios (7) enjoy sales of 2000/7=286 discs.

The HD DVD supporting studios (3) enjoy sales of 1000/3 = 333 discs.

Those studios that support both get enjoy sales of 619 discs.

Seems like the lone HD DVD exclusive studio should be happy (short term) even with a 2:1 Blu-ray to HD-DVD sales ratio as they enjoy more disc sales than any Blu-ray studio.


Of course, this assumes the market is split evenly between all studios and is likely not the case.

Icemage, you better hope the movie studios didn't read that post ;)

Yes. I see folks substituting movie theatres with hi def at home. In India for instance, movies are released in theatres and DVD at the same time.

So, how do we square that with the 15B sell thr' revenue in 2007 ?
...
Anyway, I'm looking at the rates as per household rather than dvd players.
Given that lots of households have multiple DVD players, that could be the explanation right there (although I haven't looked at the numbers).

--Darin

In India for instance, movies are released in theatres and DVD at the same time.

That was to stem rampant piracy of "camera captured" VCD/DVDs.

Given that lots of households have multiple DVD players, that could be the explanation right there (although I haven't looked at the numbers).

I guess so too. That is why I think buy rates for households is a better measure than attach rates per player.

I guess so too. That is why I think buy rates for households is a better measure than attach rates per player.As long as they don't play the trick of using buy rates for households and then mentioning the number of players sold, as if multiplying those gives a total for discs sold. Just one trick they can pull (and a lot of these tricks seem to work).

--Darin

A studio likely prefers high attach rates to volume when volume is below a certain threshold. Once volume for titles consistantly exceeds this bar, then attach rates are not significant. What these numbers actually are for a studio, likely something we'll never know.

An attach rate is important to a studio mainly becaue not every movie is desireable but say the attach rate on a new format is quite high due to it's presentation, then studios can be confident is making money off low sellers and more importantly, back catalog with their double/tripple/quad dipping. If they can extend their double dipping catalog by %20 percent due to higher attach rates, they stand to make a lot more in the long run when the format has mass appeal.

One thing to note is that attach rate also gives you a consumer interest barometer. Have the PS3 sales pushed the sales of other players significantly? If not, once the PS3 is a few months old out of the early adopter/ethusiast purchase zone and heads into the mainstream, how will those attach rates look? Are studios content with only selling copies when it's a major blockbuster? From what I recall, most studios push out more average titles in a given year than Pirates and Spiderman level successes. For those other movies to make money, attach rate might be quite important.


The important of attach rates should not be overlooked especially when we consider that these formats are still quite infant and unstable.

Most DVD sales occur within 90 days of a release. It pretty remarkable that older catalog titles are still selling well on HD DVD. One very probable explanation is that they are being sold to new player owners.

To me a new release of a catalog title is a new release, and I do buy it within 90 days (usually). My yearly attach rate (gulp) is about 150-170 :o . I am a chronic double and tripple dipper, so I am likely to upgrade. I will probably not get rid of my DVD versions, because you don't get much for them and they are back-up if HD goes down the tubes.

I think everyone in the last page of posts in this thread is arguing two sides of the same coin.

Average Total Sales = Total Install Base x Average Attachment Rate

Hardware vendors who are selling at a loss (Sony on PS3, probably Toshiba on the HD-A1 and possibly on the HD-A2) and hoping to recoup the loss on licensing will be most interested in the Average Attachment Rate, as too low of an attachment rate will produce a net loss on each unit sold. This isn't a hard and fast rule, however, because production costs for all units trend downward over time - once the cost to manufacture falls below the wholesale price, the unit is profitable and attachment rate becomes a non-issue for hardware manufacturers.

Software vendors (read: studios) are interested only in Total Sales. They don't care whether they get to that point with a large install base with moderate attachment rate, or a smaller install base with a great attachment rate.

This isn't to say that a large install base + low attach rate is the same as small install base + high attach rate, however. The reason? Marketing.

You can market the heck out of something to force the attachment rate on any given title to improve above the average, but if a format already has good attachment rate, marketing will not be very effective.

Movie studios know that there are certain titles in their new releases and catalogs that are simply "must haves" for any format owner, and that if they can get the word out that such a product is available, the attach rate will already be high for such titles, regardless of what the average is. Recent films that did reasonably well at the box office also fall into this category.

As such, I would expect that studios would prefer to see a larger potential pool than a more enthusiastic buying demographic.

I think you leave something out of your analysis. What if you are a studio that doesn't release to hi-def, or you are a format exclusive studio. You don't have a sales volume to look at. You are in uncharted territory. So you must look at player install base, attach rate, and estimate the competition you will face to determine which format(s) you should release in.

Also, I would rather have the more enthusiastic buying demographic personally. A potential buying pool is just that, potential. Potential doesn't make you any money until you turn that potential pool into an enthusiastic buying demographic. Doing that takes millions in marketing, and possibly years to accomplish. People don't just wake up one morning going, "I'm going to start buying a bunch of BD discs today!" In the case of the PS3, BD studios will need to convince the potential pool not spend money on other things, and spend them on movies. The problem with that is that some of those "other things" are extra controllers, memory units,and PS3 games.

Its real tough to change consumer behavior after the sale.

http://www.videobusiness.com/contents/images/YearEnd-TotalSellThrough06-Pie.jpg

Dude! That chart looks like my buying habits over the course of my DVD buying history... studio wise that is... I really haven't spent that much money! ;)

I would probably move Paramount up past Universal though...

~Alan

Aside to AnthonyP: You don't need absolute sales volumes to do projections on relative sales volumes,[quote]
Icemage: agree you don’t need absolute

[quote] since the relation between Weekly, YTD, and SI are known for 1/21 to 1/28.
totally irrelevant

We can use that data to extrapolate relative values for any of those three as long as two of the three are known for any given week.
no
I made no assumptions in my calculations,
yes you did, I didn’t have the time to go over your numbers, but you must have made some assumptions

and used only the data provided by Nielsen/VideoScan from the article in PC Magazine plus what Home Media Magazine has published. All other figures are directly extrapolated from these numbers.
I don’t think anyone is saying you made up stuff. But to extrapolate you must have made some assumptions.
------------

if you had week and SI (or YTD) then you could get YTD (or SI) of this weeks from the last. But you can’t get week because you don’t have the relative weight of the week to anything else. Also two data points (for week) 1/21, 1/28 would not be enough to determine the evolution curve even if one assumed that week always fit nicely on a graph. Is it constant (i.e. 50k every week) linear (50k week 1, 60k week 2, 70k week 3, 80k week 4….) ……

DVD upscaling is a factor that satisfies HD DVD owners at this time mainly as a post purchase decision. HD DVD marketing materials and advertising will probably start to push that thought, as a secondary reason to justify a player purchase as it is a benefit and an advantage to HD DVD. The idea of"making you current collection of DVDs look better at near HD quality" can be seen to reduce risk.

But at this moment, I thinks it mostly a post decision factor. The high level of DVD upscaling in my HD DVD players have definitely taken away my urgency to rush out and buy a Blu-ray player. I probably will in the future, but I am in no hurry about it at the current Blu-ray prices points. I love HD and consider Blu-ray a step up but I will upscale those Blu-ray titles in the near future as the upscaling is a more that tolerable measure for me in the meantime.

The HD DVD sales so far seem to indicate that HD DVD owners seem to be willing to replace a lot of their older DVD catalog titles with HD DVD versions. Blu-ray has had less classic catalog titles out, so it a bit tougher to tell, but it seems clear that the Blu-ray strategy is still tilting toward recent Hollywood films, day and date stuff, and less on classics titles.

That's an advantage for Blu-ray as they have more recent hits in their catalog, but its also an inherent strategy in Blu-ray's blockbuster hit title approach compared to HD DVD deeper wider more catalog based approach.

I don't think that HD DVD folk will be as eager to crave to replace their existing DVDs with HD DVD because of the upscaling. But in my own case, I know that if I have a favorite coming out in HD DVD and I already own it, if want that last double dip to get the best version available.

But if its out on Blu-ray , I compromise and watch the upconverted version. I realize its a compromise when I do it, I'd rather have the HD version, but I'm not willing to dive into Blu-ray yet at the current price point for the few titles I really crave. I'll watch Terminator and T2 upconverted and then watch the T3 in HD DVD. But as soon as I can get it, I'll buy the HD DVD version, but that not enough to flip me to a Blu-ray player yet.

Once I've bought into teh format, the new release of a classic title is enough to tickle my interest and I will buy it or rent it because the cost is still low enough for that disc purchase. When I see something out on Blu-ray, i just mutter under my breadth and watch the upconverted version, because I'm not willing to pay $599 plus fro a standalone Blu-ray player yet, that isn't future proof BD-Live capable.

That's just me, but I think it applies to a lot of people.

Hope that answered your question.

Good points Kosty. And that's where I am really struggling. Like you, I'm an early HD DVD adopter solely. The BD camp is just too expensive. However, just in the titles released last week thru the end of May, there are 10 bonafide BD movies I would buy, and one possible. The other releases in between are on both formats and I always buy the HD DVD version. :)....

I just haven't bought any sd-dvd except for 2 TV shows late last year, Firefly & Alias Season 5. That's it. Just don't want to buy sd again then replacing it with a HD later on.

Does one pony up $500 for a 20gb PS3 if you can find one around?

What I am doing is using the heck out of Blockbuster Online. $15 per month for unlimited rentals is not bad. Upconversion is nice but nothing replaces true HD.

HD has spoiled me as I always think "man I wish I had this in HD" when I watch a sd dvd.

This spring will be the telling for me...with some nice BD titles I really want. I think I can hold out....this is where BD is losing money for us folks who can only afford one format. If the BD camp really wanted to make a dent, give us a player that is affordable and available....it would be hard to resist then.

:)

somebody earlier mentioned not to worry about the sales figure for HD DVD because they were just having a temporary slump while waiting for new releases. That's the problem for hddvd...if the studio support stays as is, BD will always have better releases, thus the problem isn't around short term releases, its around long term support.

BTW, I'm an HD DVD owner and supporter.

As long as they don't play the trick of using buy rates for households and then mentioning the number of players sold, as if multiplying those gives a total for discs sold. Just one trick they can pull (and a lot of these tricks seem to work).

All the companies try to spin as best as they can.

But, I'd guess in the early days multiple HD player households may be a rarity (though even I have two) ....

The important of attach rates should not be overlooked especially when we consider that these formats are still quite infant and unstable.

I think attach rates in general are not that critical ... if CE players are the mainstay of the format. But for BD since PS3 outpaces all other players by a very wide margin - attach rate becomes the only measure to know the real impact of PS3. Similarly attach rate of HD DVD add-on for XBox 360 is important.

And again one has to distinguish between initial attach rates and sustained attach rates - unless the studios want to repeat the mistake they made with UMD.

I didn’t have the time to go over your numbers, but you must have made some assumptions
+
[lots of stuff where you didn't bother to read my logical proof and assumed I was projecting relative sales week-over-week based on some arbitrary hueristic assumption]

I did not make any assumptions.

Here's the logic flow:

(A) Known: Weekly ratio at 1/21 and 1/28
(B) Known: YTD ratio at 1/21 and 1/28
(C) Known: SI ratio at 1/21 and 1/28
Knowing A and C, we can judge the relative size of the weekly sales of both BD and HD relative to SI for their respective formats, just by projecting off of the change in SI week over week. This is what I did in the first post.
BD SI 1/21 + BD Weekly Sales 1/28 = BD SI 1/28 (Exhibit D)
HD SI 1/21 + HD Weekly Sales 1/28 = HD SI 1/28 (Exhibit E)
We know the ratio of BD Weekly sales 1/28 to HD Sales 1/28, it's 68.8/31.2 = 2.205 (provided by PC Magazine)

Replacing the value in Exhibit D gives us:
BD SI 1/21 + 2.205 (HD Weekly Sales) = BD SI 1/28
We know the ratio of BD SI 1/21 to HD SI 1/21, it's .8230 (provided by HMM)

Replacing again gives the modified Exhibit D as:
.8230 (HD SI 1/21) + 2.205 (HD Weekly Sales 1/21) = BD SI 1/28
We know the ratio of BD SI 1/28 to HD SI 1/28. It's .8776 (provided by HMM)

Replacing one more time gives this:
.8230 (HD SI 1/21) + 2.205 (HD Weekly Sales 1/21) = .8776 (HD SI 1/28)
Per Exhibit E, we also know this to be true:
HD SI 1/21 + HD Weekly Sales 1/28 = HD SI 1/28
Replacing the last term in the modified exhibit D (colored in cyan) gives us this:
.8230 (HD SI 1/21) + 2.205 (HD Weekly Sales 1/21) = .8776 (HD SI 1/21 + HD Weekly Sales 1/28)
Solving this simultaneous equation gives us the ratio of the sales in the week of 1/28 to the sales since inception on 1/21. This ends up being 1:24.32.

Taking the same solution from the BD side yields a ratio of 1:9.12.

With me so far?

Now, with the figures from 2/4, we're missing the weekly sales ratios of HD and BD. You state that it is not possible to know these values just from the YTD and SI values. I will explain how it is done.
HD SI 1/21 + HD Sales 1/28 + HD Sales 2/4 = HD SI 2/4
We know that HD SI 1/21 = 24.32 x HD Sales 1/28, so we get:
24.32 x (HD Sales 1/28) + HD Sales 1/28 + HD Sales 2/4 = HD SI 2/4
25.32 x (HD Sales 1/28) + HD Sales 2/4 = HD SI 2/4
Doing the same process for Blu-ray gives us this:
9.12 (BD Sales 1/28) + BD Sales 1/28 + BD Sales 2/4 = BD SI 2/4
10.12 (BD Sales 1/28) + BD Sales 2/4 = BD SI 2/4
But we know what the ratio of BD to HD sales were on 1/28 (PC Magazine), and we know what the BD SI to HD SI on 2/4 were (HMM).

Now, I recalculated all values for the first part in terms of multiples of HD sales from 1/21 to 1/28, and got these values:
BD SI 1/21 = .8230 (SI HD 1/21)
9.12 x BD Weekly 1/28 = .8230(24.32 x HD Sales 1/28)
BD Weekly 1/28 = .8230(24.32)/9.12 x HD Sales 1/28
BD Sales 1/21 to 1/28: 2.195 x HD Sales 1/28*
* This differs very slightly from given PC Magazine value of 68.8/31.2 = 2.205 but the difference is very small (less than 1/2 of a percent) and makes the numbers internally consistent. I believe the difference is due to fractional rounding in the PC Magazine numbers, since they have the fewest significant digits. I'll explain in detail why I believe this is so later. Suffice to say that regardless of how this is calculated, it results in only marginal fluctuation of about 3% in the figures regardless of how you go about it.

Coming back to our previous calculations:
10.12 (BD Sales 1/28) + BD Sales 2/4 = BD SI 2/4
25.32 x (HD Sales 1/28) + HD Sales 2/4 = HD SI 2/4

We know that BD Sales 1/28 = 2.195 x HD Sales 1/28. This yields:
10.12 (2.195 x HD Sales 1/28) + BD Sales 2/4 = BD SI 2/4
22.2134 x HD Sales 1/28 + BD Sales 2/4 = BD SI 2/4

We also know that BD SI 2/4 ratio to HD SI 2/4 is 92.56 to 100 (Provided by HMM)
BD SI 2/4 = .9256 x HD SI 2/4
More replacement:
22.2134 x HD Sales 1/28 + BD Sales 2/4 = .9256 x HD SI 2/4
22.2134 x HD Sales 1/28 + BD Sales 2/4 = .9256(25.32 x (HD Sales 1/28) + .9256 x HD Sales 2/4)
22.2134 x HD Sales 1/28 + BD Sales 2/4 = (23.4362 x HD Sales 1/28) + .9256 x HD Sales 2/4
BD Sales 2/4 = 1.228 HD Sales 1/21 + .9256 x HD Sales 2/4

We now have an expression that shows Weekly Sales for 2/4 for BD as compared to HD sales for 2/4, with an offset expressed in HD Sales from 1/28.

Now, this isn't very useful by itself. However, we still have more data: The Year to Date figures. Repeating the same process from the beginning. Just as I was able to express the SI units in terms of HD Sales from 1/28, it's possible to do the exact same thing to the YTD numbers using exactly the same logic. This post is already getting way too long, so I'll just ask you to check the relavent section of my proof (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9800106#post9800106) for confirmation of these equivalencies:

BR YTD on 1/21 = 6.277 x HD Sales on 1/28
HD YTD on 1/21 = 3.1705 x HD Sales on 1/28
This produces the following values after you continue the replacement process:
HD Sales 2/4 = .9459 x HD Sales 1/21
BR Sales 2/4 = 2.1035 x HD Sales 1/21
Basically, if we assume some arbitrary value U is the number of HD discs sold between 1/21/07 and 1/28/07, we can, with the available data, express all of the other known values in units of U
While we do not know the exact value of U, we can still run calculations and do mostly precise numeric projections based off of these now-known values. The value of U is immaterial in this context because all it does is scale every value - the proportions will not change. Since the precision of these numbers is only 3 significant digits, the result is going to be accurate to 3 or fewer significant digits, which is why I've basically rounded all the figures.

I talked above about why I re-calculated the proportion of BD to HD sales and preferred the lower number. Darin pointed out in my calculation thread that the YTD proportional values for BD were not working within the context of a 2.205 to 1 ratio. Recalculation based on the availble data pushed the number a bit lower, and produces a result that is more in line with the expected behavior of the YTD figures. This is not because of any inherent error on the part of the VideoScan data - but rather a lack of precision. Using the 2.205 ratio for 1/21 produces a nonsensical 67.5% weekly share for BR, which does not bring down the YTD data enough, so the ratio is obviously too high.

somebody earlier mentioned not to worry about the sales figure for HD DVD because they were just having a temporary slump while waiting for new releases. That's the problem for hddvd...if the studio support stays as is, BD will always have better releases, thus the problem isn't around short term releases, its around long term support.

BTW, I'm an HD DVD owner and supporter. But there is a limit reached for diminishing returns. I could make a list (actually I kinda did in Bferr1 AFI Top 100 sticky thread) of 300 or so HD DVD exclusive or format neutral titles of movies that I would love to watch in HD DVD that would keep me busy for years, and I try to watch at least 1 movie a day.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=715977

Once there 200 or 300 or 400 or 500 movies available in HD DVD this year, and the same for Blu-ray, their becomes a point where there are enough movies to justify a HD player purchase decision. Then the studio support becomes less of an issue, when consumers can racks of this stuff. Once you buy in a format, there is inertia keeping you there, even more so when its $499 or worse $599 or more to dive into the other format. If the PS3 get upconversion, then there is inertia there also.

Catalog titles accumulate and theres a critical mass of them needed to support the format.

Blu-ray does have a significant advantage in current hit movies, but those have only a 90 day hot release shelf life and then they are just another catalog title.

The BDA knows this and a lot of their PR and sales focus will be on the sales figures from these hit releases while HD DVD will follow with more good classic catalog releases.

Long term both formats have more than enough good movies to release. Blu-ray those has some edge with the more recent titles.

But remember, the entire released catalog looks brand new to a new player owner, so as long as prices keep dropping and players keep selling those older titles will also have some sales.

But remember, the entire released catalog looks brand new to a new player owner, so as long as prices keep dropping and players keep selling those older titles will also have some sales

Agreed. :) Batman Begins still selling like it is...IS rather amazing.

Agreed. :) Batman Begins still selling like it is...IS rather amazing. I almost think that alone counts for an attach rate of 1 for each HD DVD player.

King King and Superman Returns will also be evergreen releases for new owners.

But remember, the entire released catalog looks brand new to a new player owner.

Uh, no.....unless you're one of the obsessed people here, i doubt normal people would want to repeatedly keep forking over money for multiple copies of the SAME movie.

Uh, no.....unless you're one of the obsessed people here, i doubt normal people would want to repeatedly keep forking over money for multiple copies of the SAME movie. Interesting. You think that all DVD sales are just from the new titles that are just being released?

Well then , you're probably the ideal Blu-ray candidate as that's what the Blu-ray strategy will try and follow as much as possible.

There will be more top grossing releases coming this year to Blu-ray, No doubt about it.

But often DVD sales don't correlate fully with box office sales.

Its real tough to change consumer behavior after the sale.Okay, so let's say that you work for a studio that hasn't committed to either format. If you were told that HD DVD had twice the attach rate of Blu-ray and that would continue throughout the year, knowing what you do about the different strategies that the two sides employed (where many Blu-ray players that will never be used for Blu-ray movies count in the attach rate equation), which side would you lean toward releasing on and why? I think only a 2:1 attach rate advantage for HD DVD would be a very bad sign for their health and they would have to pick up their pace for hardware sales to overcome the large numbers of PS3s that will continue selling (even if it is a disappointment they should have over 4 million sold worldwide by the end of the year and there is upside from that). If you think that HD DVD, which couldn't sell as many players in their first partial year as DVD did in there first partial year (315k just in the US for DVD and 175k+ reported by Toshiba for HD DVD in North America), is going to sell way more in 2007 than the less than 1.1 million that DVD did in the second year, then I would be interested in hearing why you think that, other than that Toshiba said they would.

If the attach rate ratio was 2:1 (just an example to give an idea of just knowing that something has a higher attach rate means) then your statement about changing consumer behavior would seem to indicate that consumer behavior continuing as is would leave that the same unless something else changed.I almost think that alone counts for an attach rate of 1 for each HD DVD player.That seems like quite an incredible statement given that "Batman Begins" might have sold 10,000 copies in January and you've used that title as evidence that hardware sales are going well. If the attach rate for it is close to 1, what does that say about hardware sales this year for HD DVD? Especially when Toshiba and Microsoft reportedly sold well over 100,000 players in November and December of last year combined and some of those would have waited to pick it up until later.

--Darin

Originally Posted by Kosty
I almost think that alone counts for an attach rate of 1 for each HD DVD player. That was an obvious exaggeration. Note the phrase " I almost think" I did not think you would take it so literally.

Sorry I left off the wink. ;)

But since that seems to be one of the best selling titles and it seems to sell well every month with new owners, and no new releasess, it seems that it can almost be a proxy for estimating the trends of new HD DVD player purchases.

Probably not a 1:1 correlation, but it might be as high as 1 out of 3, or 1 out of 5 or maybe as low as 1 out of 10 new owners may have picked up that title.

But since there are 150+ HD DVD titles to choose from, its obviously pretty popular.

That was an obvious exaggeration. Note the phrase " I almost think" I did not think you would take it so literally.

Sorry I left off the wink. ;)

But since that seems to be one of the best selling titles and it seems to sell well every month with new owners, and no new releasess, it seems that it can almost be a proxy for estimating the trends of new HD DVD player purchases.

Probably not a 1:1 correlation, but it might be as high as 1 out of 3, or 1 out of 5 or maybe as low as 1 out of 10 new owners may have picked up that title.

But since there are 150+ HD DVD titles to choose from, its obviously pretty popular.I understood that it was an exaggeration, but I asked previously about the attach rate for that title and I didn't see you answer. I didn't think that you would go with 33% or 20% after that statement though. I figured you would have thought half or more, but you can probably see how that wouldn't be a very positive sign for HD DVD hardware sales given that it looks like BB might have sold 10k copies in January. I am really curious. Did you go with the 33% or 20% or 10% because of the implication to hardware sales, or because you really thought it was likely to be that low even before thinking of the implications?

We agree that it is popular. Almost an anchor for the format. Which is why I believe that those rooting for HD DVD should be hoping it is a long time before Blu-ray gets it.

--Darin

Originally Posted by Kosty
Its real tough to change consumer behavior after the sale. Its a basic principle in consumer marketing. People buy items to fit a need. Trying to get them to use it for a new task is a fairly difficult endeaver and has never been done on the scale that Sony is attempting it for the PS3.

The PS3 is a unique and powerful product, so it may work, but it goes against a lot of theory and practical marketing experiences.

Its a basic principle in consumer marketing. People buy items to fit a need. Trying to get them to use it for a new task is a fairly difficult endeaver and has never been done on the scale that Sony is attempting it for the PS3.

The PS3 is a unique and powerful product, so it may work, but it goes against a lot of theory and practical marketing experiences.I understand, but not sure what point you are trying to make here related to the discussion above, since if we see consumer behavior through sales and the attach rate was 2:1 for HD DVD over Blu-ray then it would be changes that would have to make the attach rate ratio change from 2:1.

As far as whether consumer behavior can be changed, did you follow what happened with the PS2 and DVD in Japan? Reports I've read are that the PS2 helped that format take off to a very large degree in Japan. By the time the PS2 got to the US price differences between standalones and the PS2 were much different than they had been in Japan.

--Darin

The PS3 is a unique and powerful product
YOU said it! :D

I am really curious. Did you go with the 33% or 20% or 10% because of the implication to hardware sales, or because you really thought it was likely to be that low even before thinking of the implications? Honestly don't know. I figured that 10,000 could be capturing half the Batman Begins sales so true sales figures might be as high as 20,000 discs. I knew I literally didn't mean a 1 to 1 attach rate when I made that comment, as that's a practical absurdity. It would have been less than that. 50% attach rate off the top of my head seems reasonable. When I saw you say 10,000 copies a month, that seemed lower than I expected so I just started at 33% as the next even threshold below 50%.

Didn't really calculate it backwards to correspond with any leavel of HD A2 sales. Didn't think of its implications to a calculation of hardware sales.

BTW, I think that Jan sales figures for the HD A2 are probably in a range of 35,000 to 75,000 units. No data to back that up yet, except for seeing steady HD DVD sales and having a gut feeling assuming most sales are going to new HD A2 owners.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty

The PS3 is a unique and powerful product YOU said it! Yep.

But its also a unique and powerful product that is the most expensive gaming console and the most expensive consumer electronic product ever intended for mass production and it cost more than most entry level PC's.

and its named "Play"station 3

Ok, I guess that does make it a VERY unique and powerful product :D

the most expensive gaming console and the most expensive consumer electronic product ever intended for mass production

Not even remotely.

http://cache.gizmodo.com/images/2006/05/relative.gif

Darin, what I am saying is that it is hard to change consumer behavior after purchase and for people to use an item for a purpose other than what it was intended.

Sony wants people to buy the PS3 intending to use it as a game machine and then discover the greatness of Blu-ray. Some people obviously will do just that. But the vast majority of people may use the PS3 on a relatively small screen and not see a benefit for Blu-ray. Or want to spend a lot of money on movies, instead of games. Sony is trying to change behavior after the sale and for people to discover a use for the PS3 that is different for what they bought it for.

How about this thought. A lot of the PS3's in January were bought by people intending it to be used as a Blu-ray player. Those people , or that segment of PS3 owners, may have as high an attach rate as HD DVD stand alone owners. But they are a limited group willing to pay $599 for the PS3 as a movie player. They might even be equal to the first generation HD DVD owners in quantity. But they are a small group, and won't be repeated in PS3 sales again.

Sony is trying to convert the large group of other PS3 owners who bought it for games, to shift them for using the device fro another purpose. Its never been done before. It may work, but it is without precedent AFAIK.

Honestly don't know. I figured that 10,000 could be capturing half the Batman Begins sales so true sales figures might be as high as 20,000 discs.We were told 4100 through the first 3 weeks of the year and I thinkt that was from NPD or Videoscan. That is for 21 days, so multiplying by 31 and dividing by 21 gives 6050. If those numbers account for 60% of the market, then the total sales would be around 10k. So, I already estimated the true sales vs the figures we got and so it shouldn't just be doubled to 20k. If you wanted to double the 6050 you would get 12,100.
50% attach rate off the top of my head seems reasonable.That seems reasonable to me and I wasn't saying that 10k discs would mean 10k hardware sales, just that a high attach rate without a lot of discs sold wouldn't be a good sign for hardware sales, especially considering that many of those 100k players sold in November or December of last year should have had BB purchased for them in January. Even if only 5% that would be 5k copies.
BTW, I think that Jan sales figures for the HD A2 are probably in a range of 35,000 to 75,000 units. No data to back that up yet, except for seeing steady HD DVD sales and having a gut feeling assuming most sales are going to new HD A2 owners.Seems like BB should have sold a lot better if that many HD-A2s sold in January. From looking at the in stock numbers on Amazon it looks like BB was selling about 24 copies per day. That would be about 750 copies for the month if it averaged that for all of January. It would be nice to get sales figures for both the HD-A2 and the XBOX360 add-on for each month, but I don't know if we'll get either.

--Darin

Darin, what I am saying is that it is hard to change consumer behavior after purchase and for people to use an item for a purpose other than what it was intended.Okay, but how about addressing whether you think HD DVD having an attach rate that is twice as good ad Blu-rays would be a good sign for HD DVD or a bad sign for HD DVD? I get the feeling that some want people to believe that the format with the higher attach rate must be the healthier one despite the different strategies employed. Do you think a 2:1 ratio of attach rates between the two formats, with HD DVD having the higher one, would be good for them? Or put another way, if Sony ended up with a movie attach rate for the PS3 that was half of what standalones get, would that be a good sign for them or a bad sign? If a good sign, then wouldn't you agree that people shouldn't act like Blu-ray needs to have as high an attach rate as HD DVD to win?

--Darin

Not even remotely.

http://cache.gizmodo.com/images/2006/05/relative.gif Well inflation calculations from 20 years ago make any thing pricy in todays dollars.

From the more recent ones, say from 15 years ago, ie, the Saturn , the 3DO, the CDi and the Neo Geo, weren't thye all pretty much considered failures because of their price?

BTW ,I didn't say adjusted for inflation. ;)

Okay, but how about addressing whether you think HD DVD having an attach rate that is twice as good ad Blu-rays would be a good sign for HD DVD or a bad sign for HD DVD? I get the feeling that some want people to believe that the format with the higher attach rate must be the healthier one despite the different strategies employed. Do you think a 2:1 ratio of attach rates between the two formats, with HD DVD having the higher one, would be good for them? Or put another way, if Sony ended up with a movie attach rate for the PS3 that was half of what standalones get, would that be a good sign for them or a bad sign? If a good sign, then wouldn't you agree that people shouldn't act like Blu-ray needs to have as high an attach rate as HD DVD to win?

--Darin Gotta go now, but I'll answer this.

If you include all the PS3's in the calculation, I think HD DVD must have a better than 2:1 attach rate for it to have as many disc sales in the long term as Blu-ray.

...I think that Jan sales figures for the HD A2 are probably in a range of 35,000 to 75,000 units...assuming most sales are going to new HD A2 owners.Did you mean HD A2 sales to new HD DVD owners? Anyway, I think both those figures are too high given the industry sales projections for all highdef players in 2007 and that IMO January is a slow-sales month. It would take a lot of gift cards to buy an A2.

Once I've bought into teh format, the new release of a classic title is enough to tickle my interest and I will buy it or rent it because the cost is still low enough for that disc purchase. When I see something out on Blu-ray, i just mutter under my breadth and watch the upconverted version, because I'm not willing to pay $599 plus fro a standalone Blu-ray player yet, that isn't future proof BD-Live capable.


Fair enough. But, the vast, vast, vast majority of people that matter in this battle haven't bought anything yet. The issue is whether these non-adoptees should allow themselves to get into your situation or not.

I think most BD supporters wished they could get Universal titles. But, this is calmed somewhat by the fact that the new releases coming out of Universal nowdays are a tier down from what they once were a few years ago. The exclusive killer apps (big new releases) are missing.

Gary

Well inflation calculations from 20 years ago make any thing pricy in todays dollars.

From the more recent ones, say from 15 years ago, ie, the Saturn , the 3DO, the CDi and the Neo Geo, weren't thye all pretty much considered failures because of their price?

BTW ,I didn't say adjusted for inflation. ;)


As I remember it, none of them were successful (as in 10's of millions of sales) at the high price. The Atari, even though it sold it a lot over it's life time, only sold a few hundred thousand a year when it first came out. It wasn't until a few years later that it became a success, if I recall.

Gotta go now, but I'll answer this.

If you include all the PS3's in the calculation, I think HD DVD must have a better than 2:1 attach rate for it to have as many disc sales in the long term as Blu-ray.Sounds like we are in agreement then. When discussing average attachment rates and including the PS3, this factor should be included and we should be careful not to make people believe that Blu-ray needs or should even have as high an attachment rate as HD DVD.

--Darin

The relative price people are willing to pay changes over time. There was a time a simple calculator cost hunderds of dollars....

The relative price people are willing to pay changes over time. There was a time a simple calculator cost hunderds of dollars....

Very true. But, generally for new home formats people have shown a willingness to pay $1000 for the first few generations.

Toshiba has now reset number down. Perhaps permanently. That may severely delay or harm future technology coming to market

Gary

That would make it a watershed event :)

Someone has to break the rules.....

Toshiba has now reset number down. Perhaps permanently. And, in the end, that may severely delay or harm future technology coming to market.

Gary

I don't think so. New products come to the market based on the profits from the IP. It's not that important who actually makes the players. All that happened was a bunch of Japanese CE companies lost their business to a bunch of Chinese CE companies, resulting in lower prices for the consumers.

It's inefficient to manufacture CE products in most first world countries. If you're a CE company located in the first world, that's a problem for you. But it's good for consumers.

It's inefficient to manufacture CE products in most first world countries. If you're a CE company located in the first world, that's a problem for you. But it's good for consumers.

Good is a subjective term though. While I agree that lower prices are obviously good for the consumer's pocketbooks, lower profits means that the companies most likely to innovate and improve the product (the first world country manufacturers) will have less reason to invest their much-harder-earned money into providing a better product.

Obviously this depends greatly on the attitude of the companies involved, but as a rule of thumb first world manufacturers are more likely to produce great new features on a product than their third world counterparts, because their marketing focus is on quality rather than sales volume. This is why you almost always see Chinese CEs later to enter the market than Japanese CEs; they're not as interested in innovating - they're there to enter a mass market.

Well inflation calculations from 20 years ago make any thing pricy in todays dollars.

From the more recent ones, say from 15 years ago, ie, the Saturn , the 3DO, the CDi and the Neo Geo, weren't thye all pretty much considered failures because of their price?

BTW ,I didn't say adjusted for inflation. ;)

Saturn wasn't a failure because of price, it was a failure because it lacked support and had to face the PlayStation. Price is never the main factor, otherwise the GameCube would have destroyed the PS2.

The relative price people are willing to pay changes over time. There was a time a simple calculator cost hunderds of dollars....
Yeah, but a calculator is still just a calculator. Would you like to pit the PS3 against, say the Atari 2600?

People will continue to pay premiums for CEs if the products continue to advance.

Here's another; basic PCs have remained in the $500-$1,000 range for many years. Yes, people expect the prices to drop in CEs for the same product. It's a bonus when they come down on a product that is slightly advanced over last year's model.

BTW, how many of Toshiba's models are under $500 again?

And those things don't even play games ;)

Saturn wasn't a failure because of price, it was a failure because it lacked support and had to face the PlayStation. Price is never the main factor, otherwise the GameCube would have destroyed the PS2.
Oooh, now we're rollin'!

And how 'bout that Dreamcast? Price was pretty low on that, wasn't it?

How was the developer support? :)


Seriously, a friend of mine told all of us to get the Dreamcast. Fortunately, I was too timid.

He's still getting crap for that to this day.

For consoles, price means very little to overall success rate. Console sales are all about available software.

From a gaming standpoint, the PS3's lukewarm sales for January are directly attributable to the fact that there were 0 new games released in that month for it, which meant that people who would normally not pay $500-600 for a console had no reason to change their minds.

We should see it pick up more steam as the year progresses, with more titles arriving on shelves. A possible price cut later this year (very likely) will also convince a lot of people to take the plunge and buy in, if they consider the software worth spending the money for.

Non-gamers need to be aware that the current lull in the PS3 sales is completely expected and will not last. As with all consoles, Sony's cost to manufacture will decrease over time - a savings which they have habitually passed on to the consumers, and the available title library will only grow.

The anti-Sony haters would like to believe the PS3 will never be successful. Frankly, they are wrong. Will it surpass the Xbox 360? No one knows. Regardless, software is everything, and the PS3 will be getting a lot of software over time.

We'll get a better picture after March, when the list of titles starts fleshing out and the European release occurs.

P.S. If hardware price were the primary indicator of success why did the Atari 7800 flop so badly? It was priced comparably to the Wii. ;)

Sounds like we are in agreement then. When discussing average attachment rates and including the PS3, this factor should be included and we should be careful not to make people believe that Blu-ray needs or should even have as high an attachment rate as HD DVD.

--Darin We agree that both the dedicated HD DVD or Blu-ray players should have a better movie disc attach rate than the PS3.

We agree that both the dedicated HD DVD or Blu-ray players should have a better movie disc attach rate than the PS3.Do we agree that people shouldn't mislead by acting like Blu-ray needs to have as high an attach rate as HD DVD, or do you disagree with that?

--Darin

I highly doubt that, since by the end of DIVX, monthly DVD player sales were almost as much as total DIVX sales.

Slow to reply, but that's what a news report said. I Google'd "DIVX market share" I think, and found a video (CNN business I think), that stated they held only 10% market share when they folded. If I can find the link again I'll post it.

I understood that it was an exaggeration, but I asked previously about the attach rate for that title and I didn't see you answer. I didn't think that you would go with 33% or 20% after that statement though. I figured you would have thought half or more, but you can probably see how that wouldn't be a very positive sign for HD DVD hardware sales given that it looks like BB might have sold 10k copies in January. I am really curious. Did you go with the 33% or 20% or 10% because of the implication to hardware sales, or because you really thought it was likely to be that low even before thinking of the implications?

We agree that it is popular. Almost an anchor for the format. Which is why I believe that those rooting for HD DVD should be hoping it is a long time before Blu-ray gets it.

--Darin

You keep saying Batman Begins sold 10,000 copies in Jan. How could you possibly know this, or is this just your wild guess?

Sounds like we are in agreement then. When discussing average attachment rates and including the PS3, this factor should be included and we should be careful not to make people believe that Blu-ray needs or should even have as high an attachment rate as HD DVD.

--Darin


It's a good thing the attach rate ratio for the year is much closer to 3:1 than 2:1 for HD-DVD then. :D And they did it with half as many releases. When HD-DVD production ramps up this spring, I think we'll see a jump to 4:1 or better.

Do we agree that people shouldn't mislead by acting like Blu-ray needs to have as high an attach rate as HD DVD, or do you disagree with that?
--Darin
Are you talking component, consoles or both? If BD component doesn't have about the same attach rate as HD component - BD: Houston, we have a problem

Edit: it probably won't anyway, because the higher average cost will result in fewer $$ for movies

Sounds like we are in agreement then. When discussing average attachment rates and including the PS3, this factor should be included and we should be careful not to make people believe that Blu-ray needs or should even have as high an attachment rate as HD DVD.

--Darin

I think the difference in attach rates just points to the fact that Blu-ray drive owners don't buy as many movies as HD-DVD drive owners, on a per machine basis.

Good is a subjective term though. While I agree that lower prices are obviously good for the consumer's pocketbooks, lower profits means that the companies most likely to innovate and improve the product (the first world country manufacturers) will have less reason to invest their much-harder-earned money into providing a better product.

Obviously this depends greatly on the attitude of the companies involved, but as a rule of thumb first world manufacturers are more likely to produce great new features on a product than their third world counterparts, because their marketing focus is on quality rather than sales volume. This is why you almost always see Chinese CEs later to enter the market than Japanese CEs; they're not as interested in innovating - they're there to enter a mass market.

I have a different take. When you have a market with a dozen players, all that cost $50, new features are the only advantage you have to get the consumer to purchase your player over the others. I think lower prices actually encourage more innovation, as far as cramming in feature sets.

Yeah, but a calculator is still just a calculator. Would you like to pit the PS3 against, say the Atari 2600?

People will continue to pay premiums for CEs if the products continue to advance.

Here's another; basic PCs have remained in the $500-$1,000 range for many years. Yes, people expect the prices to drop in CEs for the same product. It's a bonus when they come down on a product that is slightly advanced over last year's model.

BTW, how many of Toshiba's models are under $500 again?

And those things don't even play games ;)

I thinnk you are off on PC's. My first PC was basically a barebones 486DX4100 and cost around $2400. A far more feature rich PC today would cost $500. You get more machine for ~20% of the price.

Toshiba models that can be purchased new for under $499: A1, XA1, and A2. So 75% of their HD-DVD offerings to date. They won't play games, but at least they will play DVD and CD, which is more than some BD players will let you do.

You keep saying Batman Begins sold 10,000 copies in Jan. How could you possibly know this, or is this just your wild guess?No, I did not say that it sold 10,000 copies and the estimate from the 4,100 number we were given for the first 3 weeks of the year is the post just above the one you responded to.
I think the difference in attach rates just points to the fact that Blu-ray drive owners don't buy as many movies as HD-DVD drive owners, on a per machine basis.Are you feigning ignorance for some reason? You are a smart enough guy to know that the strategy employed with the PS3 would mean that many people would be counted as owners who would never buy a movie, thus taking the attach rate down compared to a strategy like Microsoft has used with the XBOX360 add-on where people have to specifically buy a unit for HD playback (thus only counting those who are willing to take a big enough step). Looks like you want to use this thing that we knew before either side sold a single player to make it look like the HD DVD group is a better group to sell to (since the more enthusiastic ones have been cordened off), even though any intelligent business person looking at this could see that the first method could easily result in more software sold.

--Darin

Oooh, now we're rollin'!

And how 'bout that Dreamcast? Price was pretty low on that, wasn't it?

How was the developer support? :)


Seriously, a friend of mine told all of us to get the Dreamcast. Fortunately, I was too timid.

He's still getting crap for that to this day.


What are you talking about. The Dreamcast was awesome and it had decent developer support. It sold 10.6 million consoles and had a 300 game library. Some of them are arcade games you can still find in places like Jillian's and Gameworks today. It had the first progressive scan games. It even broke the opening day sales record held by Nintendo when it was released in the US. Unfortunately, it fell victim to the 1-2 punch of the Playstation and the Playstation 2. In 2.5 years, it sold 50% of the sales numbers that the Gamecube and Xbox did in 6 years. I would hardly call that a flop. Sega just surrendered like the French. :p

No, I did not say that it sold 10,000 copies and the estimate from the 4,100 number we were given for the first 3 weeks of the year is the post just above the one you responded to.
Are you feigning ignorance for some reason? You are a smart enough guy to know that the strategy employed with the PS3 would mean that many people would be counted as owners who would never buy a movie, thus taking the attach rate down compared to a strategy like Microsoft has used with the XBOX360 add-on where people have to specifically buy a unit for HD playback (thus only counting those who are willing to take a big enough step). Looks like you want to use this thing that we knew before either side sold a single player to make it look like the HD DVD group is a better group to sell to (since the more enthusiastic ones have been cordened off), even though any intelligent business person looking at this could see that the first method could easily result in more software sold.

--Darin

All I heard from the BD camp was how the PS3's BD playback was the greatest thing since canned cheese, and everyone who bought a PS3 would rush out to buy BD movies. No that they don't appear to be doing that, I guess the history books need to be rewritten.

No, I did not say that it sold 10,000 copies and the estimate from the 4,100 number we were given for the first 3 weeks of the year is the post just above the one you responded to.
Are you feigning ignorance for some reason? You are a smart enough guy to know that the strategy employed with the PS3 would mean that many people would be counted as owners who would never buy a movie, thus taking the attach rate down compared to a strategy like Microsoft has used with the XBOX360 add-on where people have to specifically buy a unit for HD playback (thus only counting those who are willing to take a big enough step). Looks like you want to use this thing that we knew before either side sold a single player to make it look like the HD DVD group is a better group to sell to (since the more enthusiastic ones have been cordened off), even though any intelligent business person looking at this could see that the first method could easily result in more software sold.

--Darin

Where did the 4100 estimate come from. This is the first I've heard of it, and I've never seen any source to validate it. Still sounds like a wild guess to me...

FYI, the original article that put forth this information said the information came from "studio sources". However, it also said the HD-DVD group wouldn't comment on sales. The only studio source the article seemed too talk to was Sony. So if it was Sony commenting on the sale of an HD-DVD disc, I would take that with a big grain of salt. I don't think they are an unbiased source.

Are you talking component, consoles or both? If BD component doesn't have about the same attach rate as HD component - BD: Houston, we have a problemI am talking about if we count all units that are capable of playing movies as is (meaning PS3s count, but XBOX360s don't unless a person buys the add-on for it) then the attach rate should be lower for the group that includes the PS3. As obvious as this seems like it should be just with the 2 strategies, it seems that some want to use this to make people think that the result from the 2nd strategies means they are in better shape. If the highest attach rate was the ultimate goal then these companies would try to make sure they don't sell to anybody who is only going to buy a few discs or anybody who might not buy any, but that isn't likely to result in the most discs sold, just the highest attach rate.
Edit: it probably won't anyway, because the higher average cost will result in fewer $$ for moviesThis seems like something that I think is a misconception around here. A higher price for a base unit doesn't mean that people who buy it will have less money left over on average for other things. People may think that because if they look at their own individual situation with a fixed amount of money that is true. But when looking at a group, pricing the base unit higher means a lot of people with less money won't buy at all. The group who does buy could easily have more leftover money for other things than the larger group of possible purchasers, just because the higher price skewed sales toward people with more money.

--Darin

Where did the 4100 estimate come from. This is the first I've heard of it, and I've never seen any source to validate it. Still sounds like a wild guess to me...I can look, but I remember it was 7500 for "Crank" (Blu-ray's best selling title for the first 3 weeks) and 4100 for "Batman Begins" (HD DVD's best selling title for the first 3 weeks). I hope my memory isn't wrong on that as somebody should correct it if it is, but I'll have to look for the data later.

EDIT: It is possible that I was overly generous in estimating that "Batman Begins" might have sold 10k in January given that the Video Business article here:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6415444.html

said:
Also, the top titles on Blu-ray outsold those on HD DVD during the first three weeks of January. Lionsgate’s Crank sold 7,500 units on Blu-ray, compared to HD DVD’s top seller for the period, Warner Home Video’s Batman Begins, which sold through 4,100 units, according to studio sourcesIf that came from Warner, then it is more likely to be closer to the total number of units than just 60% (or 50%) of the total number for those 3 weeks.

--Darin

All I heard from the BD camp was how the PS3's BD playback was the greatest thing since canned cheese, and everyone who bought a PS3 would rush out to buy BD movies. No that they don't appear to be doing that, I guess the history books need to be rewritten.I don't know who you are talking about, but there are wackos both directions. As I've pointed out before, the percentage of PS3 owners who use it for Blu-ray movies was never going to be 100% and it was never going to be 0%. I'm not sure what history books you are talking about, because anybody using either of those numbers is an idiot and shouldn't be writing books.

--Darin

Edit : Corrected a formula cut'n'paste error.

Using Nielsen's last three numbers, I get the following numbers. The assumption is 430K HD DVDs in 2006 and 64% of that for BD. The number was chosen to make BD numbers for the first three weeks close to back projection using numbers for the 4th and 5th weeks. It is also close to some projections I ran for the SI numbers. You can pickup any starting number for HD DVD - and if you keep this ratio constant, you can get the weekly numbers by multiplying the numbers below by the same ratio. For eg., if you pick 800K as the starting number, just multiply all the other numbers by 2 and that would give you consistent figures. I chose 430K to get the BD weekly figures to be around 45K - as someone reported.


Day Week YTD SI BD# HD#
01/07 63.3/36.7 n/a n/a
01/14 68.2/31.8 n/a n/a
01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9 133,564* 67,587*
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3 45,086 20,405
02/04 n/a 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9 44,856 20,114


* : for first three weeks of 2007.

If anyone is interested, I can cleanup the spreadsheet and post it (in a day or two).

Note that I didn't use PCMag figures. I get a calculated figure of 2.21 against PCMag figures of 2.02 for the week of 1/28. I tried to get a number close to 2.02 - but that proved elusive. Looks like PCMag numbers and Videoscan numbers don't really tie ....

Nataraj,

Somebody posted that one place indicated that Blu-ray had sold 45,000 in a week. If that was the week of 02/04 and you wanted to make a chart with the 45,000 number, it looks like you could reduce everything to then it seems like you could take everything and reduce it to 40% of the original (from 111,862/45,000). That would take the original one million to 400,000.

--Darin

One more thing Nataraj. You lost me on the last figures. With 111,862 and 56,573, that would make that week 66.4 to 33.6, but a ratio like that shouldn't have made the YTD go up from 67.0 to 67.4 for Blu-ray.

--Darin

A higher price for a base unit doesn't mean that people who buy it will have less money left over on average for other things. People may think that because if they look at their own individual situation with a fixed amount of money that is true. But when looking at a group, pricing the base unit higher means a lot of people with less money won't buy at all. The group who does buy could easily have more leftover money for other things than the larger group of possible purchasers, just because the higher price skewed sales toward people with more money. --Darin
You're certainly right if it tries to be applied to any individual, but it seems to me that in any group of people, if more is spent on one good, less is spent on some other. I think BD and HD component buyers are pretty much of the same group, at least at this time. As player prices really drop this will change. But I'm not an economist.

You're certainly right if it tries to be applied to any individual, but it seems to me that in any group of people, if more is spent on one good, less is spent on some other.I think that is right, but the catch is that the amount spent per person can be higher. For instance, let's consider a group of 100 people. If you price the system so that all of them buy it then the total amount spent on software will likely be high, but that is divided by 100 people. If you price the thing really high or market it in a way that only 10 of those people buy it, then they are likely to be the most affluent or enthusiastic or whatever, so software sales may drop to 20% of the original, which would be twice as much per person. So, lower sales, but higher average even though more was charged for the system.

The above works because some people drop out as buyers. If all 100 people were going to buy whether the system was $10 or $50, then I agree that the $10 price would leave more money leftover for software. In that case the higher price wouldn't have skewed things toward people willing to spend more money, because they would have all bought it at either price.

The way to get the highest average per person in the case above would be to find the person willing to spend the most on software out of all 100 people and then sell them a system. The total software sales would then be low, but they could brag about their super high attach rate.

--Darin

So if we assume 174,307 HD DVD movies were sold in January and 4,100 of those were Batman Begins. Then 2.4% about 1 out of every 43 of the HD DVDs sold were BB.

Would it be correct to assume that somewhere in the neighborhood of two-thirds (28/43) of all HD DVD owners are buying BB? Assuming an attach rate of 28.

I think the difference in attach rates just points to the fact that Blu-ray drive owners don't buy as many movies as HD-DVD drive owners, on a per machine basis.
Can we please stop talking about attach rates where the PS3 is involved!

I thinnk you are off on PC's. My first PC was basically a barebones 486DX4100 and cost around $2400. A far more feature rich PC today would cost $500. You get more machine for ~20% of the price.

Toshiba models that can be purchased new for under $499: A1, XA1, and A2. So 75% of their HD-DVD offerings to date. They won't play games, but at least they will play DVD and CD, which is more than some BD players will let you do.
Yeah, but how long ago did you get that 486?

In the last several years, like half-a-dozen, the lower end models have remained in the $500- $1,000 range, as I said while in(creasing in features.

I'll give you the upconversion, though my display doesn't require it as many don't. And the PS3 is upgrade is vaporware at this point. But it shouldn't be long before we have an answer to that. I'm sure we'll talk again. ;)

Can we please stop talking about attach rates where the PS3 is involved!


huh .. not talk about attach rates .. ? attach rate is the king ..... it depicts consumer interest in hidef disk. It shows that consumers get the hidef hardware to watch hidef movies, not to test what hidef is all about and then put them aside and wait for exclusive PS3 games to play. Anyhow .. one of the many reasones that people are into this HT thingy is because they can impress people with their toys. Having a console in their HT isnt all that impressive aint it .. sorry not intend to offend anyone .. :p

What are you talking about. The Dreamcast was awesome and it had decent developer support. It sold 10.6 million consoles and had a 300 game library. Some of them are arcade games you can still find in places like Jillian's and Gameworks today. It had the first progressive scan games. It even broke the opening day sales record held by Nintendo when it was released in the US. Unfortunately, it fell victim to the 1-2 punch of the Playstation and the Playstation 2. In 2.5 years, it sold 50% of the sales numbers that the Gamecube and Xbox did in 6 years. I would hardly call that a flop. Sega just surrendered like the French. :p
No arguments.

Since you brushed over the developer support issue, which is all I really mentioned in the post you responded to, I'll point you to a few paragraphs under "Competition" in wikipedia.

It was however kind of you to note that it was the PS2 that delivered the knock out blow and a major reason why developers left the Dreamcast high and dry.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dreamcast

The Dreamcast was a great machine. Played a lot of Soul Calibur on it. But Sega raised their white flag only after the developers decided NOT to invade Normandy.

P.S. That's what I'm talking about. ;)

I am talking about if we count all units that are capable of playing movies as is (meaning PS3s count, but XBOX360s don't unless a person buys the add-on for it) then the attach rate should be lower for the group that includes the PS3. As obvious as this seems like it should be just with the 2 strategies, it seems that some want to use this to make people think that the result from the 2nd strategies means they are in better shape. If the highest attach rate was the ultimate goal then these companies would try to make sure they don't sell to anybody who is only going to buy a few discs or anybody who might not buy any, but that isn't likely to result in the most discs sold, just the highest attach rate.
This seems like something that I think is a misconception around here. A higher price for a base unit doesn't mean that people who buy it will have less money left over on average for other things. People may think that because if they look at their own individual situation with a fixed amount of money that is true. But when looking at a group, pricing the base unit higher means a lot of people with less money won't buy at all. The group who does buy could easily have more leftover money for other things than the larger group of possible purchasers, just because the higher price skewed sales toward people with more money.

--Darin

On the same side of that coin though, if PS3's that aren't being used to play movies don't count, we shouldn't lump in HD-DVD drives from PC's either, or BD drives on PC's.

I can look, but I remember it was 7500 for "Crank" (Blu-ray's best selling title for the first 3 weeks) and 4100 for "Batman Begins" (HD DVD's best selling title for the first 3 weeks). I hope my memory isn't wrong on that as somebody should correct it if it is, but I'll have to look for the data later.

EDIT: It is possible that I was overly generous in estimating that "Batman Begins" might have sold 10k in January given that the Video Business article here:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6415444.html

said:
If that came from Warner, then it is more likely to be closer to the total number of units than just 60% (or 50%) of the total number for those 3 weeks.

--Darin

It didn't come from Warner, it came from an unnamed "industry insider", which given the author's access to Sony (and basic lack of access to most anyone else usually) it probably means it came from Sony, which is why I don't trust the number. The unnamed "industry insider" was probably some random person from AVS.

Can we please stop talking about attach rates where the PS3 is involved!

Only if we stop talking about them have a 2:1 sales advantage, since it took them 4X as many players on the market to get there. :cool:

One more thing Nataraj. You lost me on the last figures. With 111,862 and 56,573, that would make that week 66.4 to 33.6, but a ratio like that shouldn't have made the YTD go up from 67.0 to 67.4 for Blu-ray.

Yes, there is a problem. I shouldn't have just blindly used my old spreadsheet. I'm rechecking the formulas ...

Edit : Done. Corrected a cut'n'paste error. Also adjusted the initial figure to get about 45K weekly BD sales.

No arguments.

Since you brushed over the developer support issue, which is all I really mentioned in the post you responded to, I'll point you to a few paragraphs under "Competition" in wikipedia.

It was however kind of you to note that it was the PS2 that delivered the knock out blow and a major reason why developers left the Dreamcast high and dry.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dreamcast

The Dreamcast was a great machine. Played a lot of Soul Calibur on it. But Sega raised their white flag only after the developers decided NOT to invade Normandy.

P.S. That's what I'm talking about. ;)

Your point is still lost, as the only mention of lack of support on Wikipedia is a mention of some Japanese developers who were put off by the Saturn and decided not to support the Dreamcast. However, there were 300 games developed in 2.5 years. If that is a lack of support, then what is the PS3 looking like? The way it looks to me, the PS3 would be the next Dreamcast according to your arguement.

huh .. not talk about attach rates .. ? attach rate is the king ..... it depicts consumer interest in hidef disk. It shows that consumers get the hidef hardware to watch hidef movies, not to test what hidef is all about and then put them aside and wait for exclusive PS3 games to play. Anyhow .. one of the many reasones that people are into this HT thingy is because they can impress people with their toys. Having a console in their HT isnt all that impressive aint it .. sorry not intend to offend anyone .. :p
1. BD attach rates were never expected to be high for the PS3 which is, by far the biggest seller in both camps. HD DVD fans are using attach rates like Linus's blanket.

2. We are near the end of February and the market share has been consistent at 2:1 or better. What does that say about the PS3 owners and their "test" of "what hidef is all about?"

3. I don't think there are many who feel the PS3 is not a nice looking addition to their EC. Now the 360+add-on? That's a real beaut!

Only if we stop talking about them have a 2:1 sales advantage, since it took them 4X as many players on the market to get there. :cool:
Wow! I see. You really are upset. It's one of those "truth hurts" kind of things.

I'll try to be more sensitive about this in the future. ;)

But just let me make sure I hear you correctly. Are you saying that doubling the sales of HD DVD, consistently now for several months doesn't really count because it took more hardware to get there?

Why don't you tell that to all the exclusive studios on the BD side. I'm sure they are really concerned with attach rates while they're busy trying to keep up with their demand.

Attach Rates = "The song of the truly desperate."

Sorry. Sales trumps.

Your point is still lost, as the only mention of lack of support on Wikipedia is a mention of some Japanese developers who were put off by the Saturn and decided not to support the Dreamcast. However, there were 300 games developed in 2.5 years. If that is a lack of support, then what is the PS3 looking like? The way it looks to me, the PS3 would be the next Dreamcast according to your arguement.
I'm afraid you have me there.

As I was typing that first, Dreamcast post, that thought did come to mind. If Sony doesn't get some more A-List exclusives, they run a risk of mediocre game sales for the PS3.

Thank God it's also a Blu-ray player. :D

Wow! I see. You really are upset. It's one of those "truth hurts" kind of things.

I'll try to be more sensitive about this in the future. ;)

But just let me make sure I hear you correctly. Are you saying that doubling the sales of HD DVD, consistently now for several months doesn't really count because it took more hardware to get there?

Why don't you tell that to all the exclusive studios on the BD side. I'm sure they are really concerned with attach rates while they're busy trying to keep up with their demand.

Attach Rates = "The song of the truly desperate."

Sorry. Sales trumps.

It's too bad the PS3 is the next Dreamcast, by your own admission. I mean, there appears to be fewer than 60 games scheduled for the PS3 in the first year of release. Maybe HD-DVD fans don't need to worry about the PS3 afterall. :eek:

I don't know who you are talking about, but there are wackos both directions. As I've pointed out before, the percentage of PS3 owners who use it for Blu-ray movies was never going to be 100% and it was never going to be 0%. I'm not sure what history books you are talking about, because anybody using either of those numbers is an idiot and shouldn't be writing books.

--Darin No but that's what the BDA would want you you believe, and Andy Parsons says it all the time, and the PS3 is included in every BDA publication as the numbers of Blu-ray players in the field.

Can't you admit that's been a big part of the Blu-ray spin and propaganda machine?

Didn't you see the absurd "Blu-ray wins" brochure they were handing out at CES, along with the cute Blu-ray folding pens?

I saw a link for it somewhere, or I will snail mail you a copy.

The BDA is certainly trying to imply that every PS3 is a Blu-ray movie player. Its certainly capable of that, but any reasonable person realizes as you do that "the percentage of PS3 owners who use it for Blu-ray movies was never going to be 100%".

"Fewer than 60 games"? :) Do you realize just how much time it takes to play a typical video game?

A short video game takes 8-10 hours to complete at a basic level - almost all offer advanced levels which can extend that playtime.

A really good video game has lots of content and/or replayability. Final Fantasy XII, for instance, soaked up a good 90 hours of my time, and even there I barely scratched the surface of what could be accomplished in th game.

HD enthusiasts may be excited about a couple of hundred titles, but that content in total equals less time spent in front of a screen than 60 games. ;)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha
Can we please stop talking about attach rates where the PS3 is involved! Only if we stop talking about them have a 2:1 sales advantage, since it took them 4X as many players on the market to get there. Ying and Yang. :)

"Fewer than 60 games"? :) Do you realize just how much time it takes to play a typical video game?

A short video game takes 8-10 hours to complete at a basic level - almost all offer advanced levels which can extend that playtime.

A really good video game has lots of content and/or replayability. Final Fantasy XII, for instance, soaked up a good 90 hours of my time, and even there I barely scratched the surface of what could be accomplished in th game.

HD enthusiasts may be excited about a couple of hundred titles, but that content in total equals less time spent in front of a screen than 60 games. ;)

Icemage, the argument was lack of support is what killed the Dreamcast. My point was that the Dreamcast had more support that what the PS3 appears to be getting now. So if the original arguement is true, the PS3 will go the way of the Dreamcast.

I'm not saying I believe that personally, as the Xbox 360 has passed the one year mark, and there are only about 175 total games planned through their 2-year mark, which includes all the Live arcade games. So their level of support is also less than Dreamcast, since it had 300 games in 2.5 years.

Wow! I see. You really are upset. It's one of those "truth hurts" kind of things.

I'll try to be more sensitive about this in the future. ;)

But just let me make sure I hear you correctly. Are you saying that doubling the sales of HD DVD, consistently now for several months doesn't really count because it took more hardware to get there?

Why don't you tell that to all the exclusive studios on the BD side. I'm sure they are really concerned with attach rates while they're busy trying to keep up with their demand.

Attach Rates = "The song of the truly desperate."

Sorry. Sales trumps. But attach rates can be a measure of potential future sales.

Sales may trump in the long term, but Jan and Feb sales don't mean squat.

They mean even less when their is a disparity in new releases.

You are thinking too short term. High attach rates rates imply high consumer interest and present the possibility that software sales can accelerate higher and faster with the accumulation of fewer player units. Its the placement of the fulcrum on the lever arm between player installed base and software sales.

If HD DVD player sales are accumulating and if those individuals have simlar attach rates, there is a larger base available for every new release.

Can we please stop talking about attach rates where the PS3 is involved!
Only if we stop talking about them have a 2:1 sales advantage, since it took them 4X as many players on the market to get there.

Ying and Yang. :)

More like Bill & Ben the flower pot men :)

More like Bill & Ben the flower pot men :) thank goodness for Internet search engines, I didn't get the BBC reference at first.

Missed that in my American list of childhood experiences.




But then I saw what you meant and then I wa ROFLMAO. :D

Can we please stop talking about attach rates where the PS3 is involved!A good request but one that is likely to be ignored. In my opinion all the postings and elaborate theories that have been made about the importance of attach rates for the PS3 are nothing more than attempts to find a rain cloud in a rainbow.


Only if we stop talking about them have a 2:1 sales advantage, since it took them 4X as many players on the market to get there.This is a thread about movie sales and sales ratio. No offense but this is not a thread about attach rates of Blu-ray movies for the PS3. If you want to talk about the PS3 and attach rates you really should do it in one of the threads that have already been made about it or make a new thread on it.


But attach rates can be a measure of potential future sales.Can you tell us the current attach rate for PS3 owners who buy Blu-ray discs? Can you tell us the current attach rate for stand alone Blu-ray owners? Can you tell us the current attach rate for Xbox 360 HD DVD add on owners? Can you tell us the current attach rate for stand alone HD DVD owners?

Don't mean to bury you in questions but at minimum, and I do mean at the minimum, you really should be able to give us hard data for each of those questions before you can start talking about the importance of attach rates in this format war.

It's too bad the PS3 is the next Dreamcast, by your own admission.
You've got nothin' on Jerry Rice! You can really take the ball and run like Hell!

There was no such "admission" in my post.

Remind me not to give you any inches in the future. You take enough to circle the globe.

On the same side of that coin though, if PS3's that aren't being used to play movies don't count, we shouldn't lump in HD-DVD drives from PC's either, or BD drives on PC's.I didn't say they shouldn't count. They can be counted, but only an ignorant person or someone trying to deceive would count them and then act like the format with the higher attach rate must be doing better. We all know that the factor from HD DVD and BD drives from PCs is miniscule compared to the effect of counting all PS3s when calculating the attach rates.
It didn't come from Warner, it came from an unnamed "industry insider", which given the author's access to Sony (and basic lack of access to most anyone else usually) it probably means it came from Sony, which is why I don't trust the number. The unnamed "industry insider" was probably some random person from AVS.To be clear, does that mean you don't believe the 7500 number for "Crank" either?
If HD DVD player sales are accumulating and if those individuals have simlar attach rates, there is a larger base available for every new release.The same thing applies to the PS3. If the PS3 sales are accumulating at a faster rate and those individuals have similar attach rates to the current owners, then there is a larger base available for every new release. Do you think HD DVD player sales are going to start matching PS3 player sales each month here in the reasonable future? If not, then the attach rates don't mean much unless combined with the ratio of player sales.

--Darin

The same thing applies to the PS3. If the PS3 sales are accumulating at a faster rate and those individuals have similar attach rates to the current owners....

But, do they ? (question applies to new hd dvd owners as well). My guess is that the rates fall as we go forward.

It's a good thing the attach rate ratio for the year is much closer to 3:1 than 2:1 for HD-DVD then. :D
Only if we stop talking about them have a 2:1 sales advantage, since it took them 4X as many players on the market to get there. :cool:These 2 don't really seem to jive with each other (since 2:1 from 4x the players would be 2:1 attach rate ratio). How did you get that the attach rate ratio fo the year is closer to 3:1 than 2:1 for HD DVD?
But, do they ? (question applies to new hd dvd owners as well). My guess is that the rates fall as we go forward.I don't know if they will or not given the multiple factors (like more games available, but more hit movies like "Casino Royale", "Spiderman 3", etc. available, and other factors). But I was going with Kosty's assumption which may not be true either. Especially if a lot of new owners for HD DVD were had by giving them $200 off a player if they bought it with a TV. I would expect that group to have a lower attach rate than early adopters who bought without an incentive like that. And giving somebody 4 free movies with a relatively low cost player (one promotion I've seen) is one thing that is likely to reduce their attach rates (since they already own 4 at that point).

--Darin

I think one word perfectly describes HDDVD supporters: DELUSIONAL!! ;)

Can you tell us the current attach rate for PS3 owners who buy Blu-ray discs? Can you tell us the current attach rate for stand alone Blu-ray owners? Can you tell us the attach rate for Xbox 360 HD DVD add on owners? Can you tell us the attach rate for stand alone HD DVD owners?

Don't mean to bury you in questions but at minimum, and I do mean at the minimum, you really should be able to give us hard evidence for each of those questions before you can start talking about the importance of attach rates in this format war. I can when we get accurate sales figures for both hardware and software for the Jan and Feb sales periods when Blu-ray has gained a sales lead.

Right now th only obvious thing is that it takes more PS3 to generate disc sales than the same amount of HD DVD players.

We need more data.

But attach rates can be a measure of potential future sales.

Sales may trump in the long term, but Jan and Feb sales don't mean squat.

They mean even less when their is a disparity in new releases.

You are thinking too short term. High attach rates rates imply high consumer interest and present the possibility that software sales can accelerate higher and faster with the accumulation of fewer player units. Its the placement of the fulcrum on the lever arm between player installed base and software sales.

If HD DVD player sales are accumulating and if those individuals have simlar attach rates, there is a larger base available for every new release.
Kosty, are you going on record as stating that HD DVD has "high attach rates?"

Thanks to the PS3, BD has lower attach rates, but I would not be bragging about the attach rates of HD DVD.

I agree it's a bit early, but how long does BD have to maintain the current sales trend for you to lend credence? Is there a date you have in mind that BD sales will consistently fall indicating the PS3 glitter has worn?

I must say that I'm a bit surprised by the consistency of the sales gap. Seems a powerful sign that just can't be ignored.

I think one word perfectly describes HDDVD supporters: DELUSIONAL!! ;)

How old are you,12? Does name calling make you feel like a real man instead of just a boy?

Right now th only obvious thing is that it takes more PS3 to generate disc sales than the same amount of HD DVD players.Sure, and I am just pointing out that as much as attach rates are talked about in this format war there is very little current data on attach rates. Especially on the attach rates of PS3 owners who buy Blu-ray movies.

So if we assume 174,307 HD DVD movies were sold in January and 4,100 of those were Batman Begins. Then 2.4% about 1 out of every 43 of the HD DVDs sold were BB.

Would it be correct to assume that somewhere in the neighborhood of two-thirds (28/43) of all HD DVD owners are buying BB? Assuming an attach rate of 28.The number for BB was for the first 3 weeks of the year. If that was the case and that rate held for the month then it would have been, 6050. That would be about 3.5%, or one of every 28 HD DVDs sold.

I'm not exactly sure what you were doing with the next thing given that some older owners would buy it and some newer owners. If only new owners bought 6050 and that was 2/3rds of them, then that would mean only about 9100 new owners. But of course that is a lot of assumptions.
Right now th only obvious thing is that it takes more PS3 to generate disc sales than the same amount of HD DVD players.Even a year ago before any discs or players were sold a person should have been able to tell you that this would be case, unless HD DVD was in deep, deep trouble (not just deep trouble or a little bit of trouble). It just falls out from the strategy taken by Sony and shouldn't surprise anybody. So, if people brag about it like it should be a surprise and has significance, then I wonder why they would think that when a simple analysis should have told them that.

--Darin

But, do they ? (question applies to new hd dvd owners as well). My guess is that the rates fall as we go forward.
Depends on what we call an attach rate.

A historical attach rate (X number of titles total per player) should continually gain ground as people buy more titles and more titles become available, unless there is a flood of new player sales to drive the average back down, such as is happening with the PS3.

Attach rate over time (such as the much-discussed annualized attach rate for HD-DVD) will no doubt fall over time as the market expands into a less fanatical buying demographic.

Kosty, are you going on record as stating that HD DVD has "high attach rates?"

Thanks to the PS3, BD has lower attach rates, but I would not be bragging about the attach rates of HD DVD.

I agree it's a bit early, but how long does BD have to maintain the current sales trend for you to lend credence? Is there a date you have in mind that BD sales will consistently fall indicating the PS3 glitter has worn?

I must say that I'm a bit surprised by the consistency of the sales gap. Seems a powerful sign that just can't be ignored. I don' t think PS3 sales will fall. I don't think HD DVD sales will fall. I think they both will grow so dramatically over the course of the year that any Blu-ray sales advantage right now will be trivial in magnitude by the end of the year.

Neither format has even really started execution of its mass adoption strategy yet, its just to early to tell at this points with the sales volumes still relatively small. player prices relatively high, and penetration into the mass market relatively low.

The PS3 use as a Blu-ray trojan horse and the BDA, Sony and Fox's PR offensive planned in conjunction with it was designed before any sales figures for the PS3 were in. The CES PR event and those "Blu-ray wins" were planned before any real idea of what the PS3 sales were. That PR was designed to kill off HD DVD and limit consumer CE and studio support. Now is the best chance the BDA has to kill off HD DVD before HD DVD players accumulate and HD DVD prices drop and more HD DVD titles are released.

The PS3 launch was the best chance to kill off HD DVD. Since it hasn't, HD DVD will probably survive until hybrid discs or combo players make the format war moot. The PS3 launch alone will ensure the survival of Blu-ray.

So both formats are probably here to stay.

Attach rate over time (such as the much-discussed annualized attach rate for HD-DVD) will no doubt fall over time as the market expands into a less fanatical buying demographic.Yep. And if high attach rates were the ultimate arbiter of performance then they would try not to expand into the less fanatical buying demographic because attach rates generally go down as they go there, but we all know that trying to avoid those lower attach rate sales would be a ridiculous strategy to follow and a good way to lose the war. Just one more reason why it can be very misleading to think that between two scenarios, the one with the higher attach rate must be better than the one with the lower attach rate. I could see a person losing their job if they were told to come up with the best strategy for a company and mistakenly assumed that whatever strategy would result in the highest attach rate would be the best strategy.

--Darn

Of course a strategy to just artificially pump up an attach rate is nonsensical. But its ridiculous because it would limit the base of installed players, if carried to an extreme.

But a item that naturally has a higher attach rate because of its performance and consumer loyalty and satisfaction has a natural advantage for software sales in the marketplace.

Of course a strategy to just artificially pump up an attach rate is nonsensical. But its ridiculous because it would limit the base of installed players, if carried to an extreme.Between Microsoft's strategy with the XBOX360 and HD DVD and Sony's strategy with the PS3, the latter is likely to result in a lower attach rate. Yet, it may be the strategy that ultimately determines the winner of this war (in favor of the one that chose the strategy that would naturally result in the lower attach rate). If Microsoft recalled all current XBOX360s in stores tomorrow and only sold XBOX360s with a built in HD DVD drive from now on, would attach rates for HD DVD go up or down? Would sales for HD DVD go up or down? Which strategy do you think Toshiba would like to see Microsoft take?

Microsoft's strategy doesn't artificially pump up the attach rate. It does it naturally. But that doesn't mean it is the better strategy for HD DVD to win in the war (might be the better one for Microsoft because there are some things more important than helping HD DVD win though) over Sony's strategy. If a person was analyzing which choice to pursue, they better be able to analyze beyond assumptions that the higher attach rate strategy must be the better one (even when both get their attach rates naturally).
But a item that naturally has a higher attach rate because of its performance and consumer loyalty and satisfaction has a natural advantage for software sales in the marketplace.Only if it doesn't end up with less sales of the hardware at a ratio that more than makes up for its higher attach rate (like the XA2 vs the PS3 or the A2 vs the PS3). In other words, if that satisfaction is to a smaller group, the sales it brings in can still be lower, even with a higher attach rate. The XA2 could have a higher attach rate than the A2 because it tends to be sold to more affluent people or at least people who have shown a willingness to spend more on this hobby, but that wouldn't mean that it sells more discs total. There is the factor of those buying it because of its upscaling capabilities that may push things in the other direction, but that is just one mroe complicating factor.

--Darin

In the long term. You are looking at only short term sales numbers here, The propensity of a satisfied consumer which results in a naturally higher attach rate over time is a long term advantage that results in higher sales over time.

Its much too soon to argue that it is insignificant based on small sales numbers for the first quarter. Its also hard to see its impact without any new releases to see its affect.

In the long term. You are looking at only short term sales numbers here, The propensity of a satisfied consumer which results in a naturally higher attach rate over time is a long term advantage that results in higher sales over time.When comparing the PS3 to a standalone player I don't see how you can say that. Even if the average HD-A2 or HD-XA2 owner is more satisfied and they have higher attach rates, that doesn't mean that product (or those products) will result in higher sales over time. They might, but they would have to overcome the factor that the PS3 can do so much and is likely to have many more sales. If they drive their prices down that can overcome those other factors, but if the only HD DVD player and the PS3 had the same price, I think it would be unlikely that the HD DVD player would result in higher overall sales, even if it had 2x or 3x the attach rate.

Also, an HD DVD player should have to reach some multiplier for attach rate over a game system like the PS3 before you attribute its attach rate advantage to satisfaction. Do you disagree that if they had the same satisfaction level as products that the HD DVD player should still have a higher attach rate than the PS3 for HD movies on disc? If so, then just having a higher attach rate doesn't mean much. It has to have a higher attach rate by some amount to be significant.

--Darin

Lets just agree to disagree some here.

I do agree that the attach rate needs to be much higher to be significant and that overall software sales are the most important factor overall.

I just think that we are still early in the game here and sales volumes are still low compared to what they will be later in the year and are currently tiny in proportion to DVD sales.

Last post in this thread for the night. I'm going to watch a movie and consume some adult beverages and prepare my mind for some client meetings I have tomorrow. Good night.

HD-DVD supporters would have a point here if they could show that standalone HD-DVD players have a significantly higher attach rate than BD standalone players. But there is no data/evidence for this, and I doubt it's the case, because people who own standalone players of any kind this early on are obviously HD/movie enthusiasts who'll buy a lot of discs.

PS3 owners are just an additional, very different demographic Blu-ray is reaching out to, folks who would otherwise never have gotten a next gen player this early in the game. And the sales show that this strategy is working pretty well right now.

I also think that the attach rate cant be fixed yet. The PS3 make much people early adopters if they want or not. Ones the PS3 is released in europe i think we gonna have a much more clear situation.

I Hope so.

Greetz

HD-DVD supporters would have a point here if they could show that standalone HD-DVD players have a significantly higher attach rate than BD standalone players. But there is no data/evidence for this, and I doubt it's the case, because people who own standalone players of any kind this early on are obviously HD/movie enthusiasts who'll buy a lot of discs.

PS3 owners are just an additional, very different demographic Blu-ray is reaching out to, folks who would otherwise never have gotten a next gen player this early in the game. And the sales show that this strategy is working pretty well right now. But HD DVD player prices are lower than standalone Blu-ray paleyr prices both on MSRP and on street prices and HD DVD is looking like it will have even lower prices by Xmas. If that happens more HD DVD players will probably be sold. Along with more people using them as dedicated movie players.

This may not last long, but there are currently 5 standalone HD players in Amazon's top 60 DVD players. (It used to be exceptional for a BD player to make the top 100. Suddenly there are 3 of them in the top 60. Earlier, the Philips was ahead of the XA2.)

Note that the price differential has been rapidly declining: from 100% ($1000 vs $500) to 50% ($599 vs $399) to currently 41% ($549 to $389).

Given the different rates of price reductions, prices of standalones may be relatively similar by next Christmas.

"First format to $199 wins. * :) " - Kosty


*70% Market share

A good request but one that is likely to be ignored. In my opinion all the postings and elaborate theories that have been made about the importance of attach rates for the PS3 are nothing more than attempts to find a rain cloud in a rainbow.


This is a thread about movie sales and sales ratio. No offense but this is not a thread about attach rates of Blu-ray movies for the PS3. If you want to talk about the PS3 and attach rates you really should do it in one of the threads that have already been made about it or make a new thread on it.


Can you tell us the current attach rate for PS3 owners who buy Blu-ray discs? Can you tell us the current attach rate for stand alone Blu-ray owners? Can you tell us the current attach rate for Xbox 360 HD DVD add on owners? Can you tell us the current attach rate for stand alone HD DVD owners?

Don't mean to bury you in questions but at minimum, and I do mean at the minimum, you really should be able to give us hard data for each of those questions before you can start talking about the importance of attach rates in this format war.

Can you tell me the actual volume of discs sold, or just some mathematical ratio? Well, until you can give use hard data, I guess we should stop talking about disc sales, since we actually don't have any real data on disc sales. All we have is some goofy ratio, and we don't even know what kind of sales they are based on.

Sales ratio is a sales metric, the same as attach rate is a sales metric. To argue we shouldn't talk about one, is the same as arguing that we should talk about neither.

"First format to $199 wins. * :) " - Kosty


*70% Market share

In general, $199 is probably a good point for mass-adoption, as with the DVD.

With a format war and the other side offering a player at, for example, $219 or $229 (combined with potential differences in installed base of compatible game consoles and different availability of software), I'm not so sure ...

I didn't say they shouldn't count. They can be counted, but only an ignorant person or someone trying to deceive would count them and then act like the format with the higher attach rate must be doing better. We all know that the factor from HD DVD and BD drives from PCs is miniscule compared to the effect of counting all PS3s when calculating the attach rates.
To be clear, does that mean you don't believe the 7500 number for "Crank" either?
The same thing applies to the PS3. If the PS3 sales are accumulating at a faster rate and those individuals have similar attach rates to the current owners, then there is a larger base available for every new release. Do you think HD DVD player sales are going to start matching PS3 player sales each month here in the reasonable future? If not, then the attach rates don't mean much unless combined with the ratio of player sales.

--Darin

Can you point out where anyone has claimed HD-DVD is selling better than Blu-ray? I think you've made an illogical jump somewhere. This whol discussion started when I said you can't discount a group of players with a large volume but lower attach rate, the same as you can't discount a group of players with a lower volume, but higher attach rate. In my eyes, it makes them very equal.

As for the Crank number of 7500, if the "insider informant" was Sony, then I would tend to think they would know the number of sales, if it was Joe Random taking a stab at an estimate, then no, I don't believe it anymore than the Batman Begins number. If the author really spoke with Warner, why didn't they say, "Steve at Warner", or "Nielsen provided". The author made it a point to do so when she actually spoke with a Sony rep, but everyone else was an unnamed "insider" when providing information. I think the article was editorial that trying to be passed off as investigative journalism.

And looking at PS3 sales, I think it is very likely that HD-DVD is matching pace with the PS3's that are actually be used to play movies. I think they are there now.

These 2 don't really seem to jive with each other (since 2:1 from 4x the players would be 2:1 attach rate ratio). How did you get that the attach rate ratio fo the year is closer to 3:1 than 2:1 for HD DVD?
I don't know if they will or not given the multiple factors (like more games available, but more hit movies like "Casino Royale", "Spiderman 3", etc. available, and other factors). But I was going with Kosty's assumption which may not be true either. Especially if a lot of new owners for HD DVD were had by giving them $200 off a player if they bought it with a TV. I would expect that group to have a lower attach rate than early adopters who bought without an incentive like that. And giving somebody 4 free movies with a relatively low cost player (one promotion I've seen) is one thing that is likely to reduce their attach rates (since they already own 4 at that point).

--Darin

It jives, go back and look at the numbers. I guess I should say that it takes ~7X as many BD players to generate 2X the disc sales, but if you put in a fudge factor for how many PS3 owners use the PS3 for BD playback, and another fudge factor on how many sales Nielsen is actually capturing, the number drops to 4X based on the data we have, and some assumptions. We covered the math on this already. You've even quoted it before.

I think one word perfectly describes HDDVD supporters: DELUSIONAL!! ;)

Would mods consider a remark like this - personal attack ? Not that even otherwise it helps AVS's reputation.

Especially if a lot of new owners for HD DVD were had by giving them $200 off a player if they bought it with a TV.

I wonder how well that program is doing. Robert says he almost always sells a HiDef dvd player with HDTVs. If places like Magnolia really tried, they could as well.

Though, the reason such people would have lower attach rates - could be because they are not movie enthusiasts (unless if they are and the sale made them switch from dvd to hidef dvd).

4 free movies would make for less attach rate - depending on whether those movies went towards calculating attach rates or not. Also, buy 1 get one on BD movies - should definitely increase attach rates.

But HD DVD player prices are lower than standalone Blu-ray paleyr prices both on MSRP and on street prices and HD DVD is looking like it will have even lower prices by Xmas. If that happens more HD DVD players will probably be sold. Along with more people using them as dedicated movie players.

And why are HD-DVD standalone players cheaper? Because this is basically the only way HD-DVD has any chance whatsoever against the overwhelming CE support and better studio support of BD. BD companys made some money on first gen machines because they could, whereas Toshiba was basically forced to subsidize their first gen.

As has been mentioned before, HD-DVD and BD standalone prices are already getting closer, and if they thought it was really necessary, BD companys could match HD-DVD standalone player pricing as it is not inherently more expensive to build BD players. After all, most components used are basically the same.

As this is a complety different discussion anyway, my original point still stands that there is no data/evidence to suggest that attach rates of standalon HD-DVD players are higher than those of standalone Blu-ray players.

And why are HD-DVD standalone players cheaper? Because this is basically the only way HD-DVD has any chance whatsoever against the overwhelming CE support and better studio support of BD. BD companys made some money on first gen machines because they could, whereas Toshiba was basically forced to subsidize their first gen.

As has been mentioned before, HD-DVD and BD standalone prices are already getting closer, and if they thought it was really necessary, BD companys could match HD-DVD standalone player pricing as it is not inherently more expensive to build BD players. After all, most components used are basically the same.

As this is a complety different discussion anyway, my original point still stands that there is no data/evidence to suggest that attach rates of standalon HD-DVD players are higher than those of standalone Blu-ray players.

And there never will be any data like that, because no one tracks what type of a machine a disc will get played on. The way the system works currently, it would be impossible to determine the attach rate of standalones only. Who would pick a metric that is impossible to measure? It would be like saying Coke always tastes better than Pepsi, but only when you are on Jupiter. We'll never know...

And there never will be any data like that, because no one tracks what type of a machine a disc will get played on. The way the system works currently, it would be impossible to determine the attach rate of standalones only. Who would pick a metric that is impossible to measure? It would be like saying Coke always tastes better than Pepsi, but only when you are on Jupiter. We'll never know...

I have no evidence to back this up, nor am I saying that it is so. But I often wondered if Sony is gathering BD data on their PS3 and sending it back to their "mothership". Maybe game metrics as well. Has anyone ever performed a packet sniff to see what is going on?

DVD Empire has new weekly data AND updated last week's data:


Week of Feb 21: 68.52 BD / 31.48 HD DVD
Week of Feb 13: 64.21 BD / 35.79 HD DVD


(Plazman: seems like these BD Amazon customers returned ;) )

DVD Empire has new weekly data AND updated last week's data:


Week of Feb 21: 68.52 BD / 31.48 HD DVD
Week of Feb 13: 64.21 BD / 35.79 HD DVD


(Plazman: seems like these BD Amazon customers returned ;) )
Boy it sure does look like those fair-weather PS3 owners have bought all the BDs they're going to buy.

Oh wait... I must have read that wrong. Looks like the gap is pretty much the same as it's been since this this thread began. Well I'm sure they'll stop buying soon. I mean, it's been over 8 weeks since Christmas. They must have all bought their 1 disc by now, right. ;)

Hugs

It was 52% 47 % yesterday for the week.

Their volumes must be huge.............. if it swings that much overnight :D

It was 52% 47 % yesterday for the week.

Their volumes must be huge.............. if it swings that much overnight :D
Not so huge as the obvious importance of attach rates to these massive volumes. :)

It was 52% 47 % yesterday for the week.

Their volumes must be huge.............. if it swings that much overnight :D


For the last few days it was like that. Odd.

It was 52% 47 % yesterday for the week.

Their volumes must be huge.............. if it swings that much overnight :D

They don't update daily: the numbers had been unchanged for about a week.

I have the impression that they post a first estimate after their pre-orders go out at the start of the week, and then update once the week is completely over.

Hmmm, that may indicate that HD DVDers pre-order more (which is consistent with them being more real early adopters and with what we see happening with The Departed and with Babel on Amazon. So what does that mean for when the numbers of the week of the 21th get updated ... ? ;)

DVDEmpire did not receive any of their Fox titles from 2/13 until yesterday. Now they're all listed as in stock and my backordered titles shipped out as well.

DVDEmpire did not receive any of their Fox titles from 2/13 until yesterday. Now they're all listed as in stock and my backordered titles shipped out as well.
Ah-ha.

It was 52% 47 % yesterday for the week.

Their volumes must be huge.............. if it swings that much overnight :D

I think we can all agree the numbers are pretty low across the board. However, the insinuation that DVDEmpire is doing statistically insignificant volume isn't really fair. Their data has been trending in exactly the same fashion as the Niesen and NPD numbers have been suggesting, and the weekly figures seem pretty consistent to me.

Also note that The Prestige release on 1/20 is going to probably generate a lot of unit sales for Blu-ray with no answer from the HD-DVD side - if Amazon is seeing lots of sales, DVDEmpire is probably seeing the same which would explain the spike (the reason for mostly even numbers previously being The Departed, naturally).

I have no evidence to back this up, nor am I saying that it is so. But I often wondered if Sony is gathering BD data on their PS3 and sending it back to their "mothership". Maybe game metrics as well. Has anyone ever performed a packet sniff to see what is going on?Well, I know they rank me everytime I play demos like GT and Lemmings . I didn't even know my PS3 was online at the time. So they could be tracking a lot of things we don't know about.

It was 52% 47 % yesterday for the week.

Their volumes must be huge.............. if it swings that much overnight :DI believe that 52/47 was put up on February 20th and was just for a partial day, since it was the week of February 20th. Then it didn't get updated for a couple of days.

--Darin

Sorry if I missed it, but does anybody know if Fry's is included in the Videoscan numbers?

--Darin

Not so huge as the obvious importance of attach rates to these massive volumes. :) Smartie pants. :D

Touche.

Wait till next month and see what happens. ;)

I think I've now seen a extimate that goes up on DVD empire and then it gets posted as the next weeks numbers and then it gets finalized.

I think I have seen 3 different numbers attach to a single week. The final adjustments always trend toward Blu-ray, whatever that means.

Wow, I can't believe this arguement has been going on for 72 pages. :rolleyes:

I do think that dvdempire is maintaining a consistent data set and that over time the results will be meaningful.

It jives, go back and look at the numbers. I guess I should say that it takes ~7X as many BD players to generate 2X the disc sales, but if you put in a fudge factor for how many PS3 owners use the PS3 for BD playback, and another fudge factor on how many sales Nielsen is actually capturing, the number drops to 4X based on the data we have, and some assumptions. We covered the math on this already. You've even quoted it before.

It would seem reasonable that Sony will end up at something like 6-7 million of the PS3 this year. So if Toshiba can sell around 1 million players the same period we should be at about the same ratio as now at the end of the year using 7x.

Other factors unaccounted for of course :D

Wow, I can't believe this arguement has been going on for 72 pages. :rolleyes: Not so much an argument as a barbershop conversation with customers coming in the door breathlessly bringing new information in from time to time. :)

Not so much an argument as a barbershop conversation with customers coming in the door breathlessly bringing new information in from time to time. :)

:) Sounds more like a coffee shop. Unless your barber has a fridge with cold beer in the corner?

And there never will be any data like that, because no one tracks what type of a machine a disc will get played on. The way the system works currently, it would be impossible to determine the attach rate of standalones only. Who would pick a metric that is impossible to measure? It would be like saying Coke always tastes better than Pepsi, but only when you are on Jupiter. We'll never know...

Exactly! This is why it doesn't make sense to talk about "superior" HD-DVD attach rates! We have no data, and there is no reasonable logic why the attach rates of HD-DVD standalone players should be higher than those of Blu-ray standalone players as both are bought by the same type of early adopter HD/movie enthusiast.

It would seem reasonable that Sony will end up at something like 6-7 million of the PS3 this year. So if Toshiba can sell around 1 million players the same period we should be at about the same ratio as now at the end of the year using 7x.

Other factors unaccounted for of course :D

Sony is expected to sell 10-12 million Nov 06 - Dec 07.

I think I've now seen a extimate that goes up on DVD empire and then it gets posted as the next weeks numbers and then it gets finalized.

I think I have seen 3 different numbers attach to a single week. The final adjustments always trend toward Blu-ray, whatever that means.Are you sure it isn't just a case of each week being the week starting on the data given and they update it as the week progresses?

--Darin

The way to get the highest average per person in the case above would be to find the person willing to spend the most on software out of all 100 people and then sell them a system. The total software sales would then be low, but they could brag about their super high attach rate. --Darin
You may be right. People will likely spend more on disks when their system is new, and by the time the shine wears off, the sunk cost of the player (higher or lower) has little effect on their ongoing disk spending habits. The higher the income group the more they may spend.

It jives, go back and look at the numbers. I guess I should say that it takes ~7X as many BD players to generate 2X the disc sales, but if you put in a fudge factor for how many PS3 owners use the PS3 for BD playback, and another fudge factor on how many sales Nielsen is actually capturing, the number drops to 4X based on the data we have, and some assumptions. We covered the math on this already. You've even quoted it before.This is some of your math that I remember (with your assumptions):

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9799629&&#post9799629
started with the assumption that Nielsen saw the same number of combined unit sales as NPD (877,000) for the week through Feb. 4. The difference with Nielsen that they are seeing a slightly different distribution between the two formats. I used the Nielsen ratios so far, as well as the data they provided to PC Magazine.

Since Jan. 1, I get an average of ~40,562 BD discs per week and ~19,996 HD-DVD discs per week.

Does that really change my analysis. Let's say Nielsen catches 50% of software sales, and 50% of hardware sales. This means by now they should be logging 500,000 PS3's. Add in around another 30,000 standalones caught at the same 50% rate. This means a average weekly attach rate of .077 discs per BD player, or one movie per 13 BD players each week.

Let's guess that by now, HD-DVD has sold 250,000 hardware sales, and Nielsen has caught 50% of those, or 125,000. It means HD-DVD is seeing a weekly attache rate of .160 discs per HD-DVD player, or one movie per 6.25 HD-DVD players each week.

Or if you want to spin this number, you could say even though BD is outselling HD-DVD 2:1, the need around twice as many players on the market to sell one disc. Otherwise, Blu-ray needs to sell 4X as many players to get 2X as many disc sales. Which situation has the better economy?Where did you get the ~7X that you stated above? Your own calculations there would be an annualized attach rate of 8.3 for HD DVD and 4.0 for Blu-ray. You aren't going to use an annualized attach rate of 28 in present or future tense after just calculating something that would have brought HD DVDs attach rates down over the first month+ of the year, are you?

If you use the ratio you did yesterday for it to take 50,000 HD DVD players to equal 250,000 PS3s, then the attach rate needs to be 5x on those HD DVD players over the PS3 attach rate.

--Darin

Are you sure it isn't just a case of each week being the week starting on the data given and they update it as the week progresses?

--Darin

They only update once or twice. Same way last week, but it was less extreme than this time. And indeed the updates tend to go BD's direction.

(I believe it's mainly pre-orders versus regular orders but there are definitely other explanations such as the Fox issue mentioned earlier.)

Having said the above, I still think there will be a trade-off between purchases of movies and games on the PS3 or add-on. If nothing else the player used for games will be playing fewer movies. So based on an earlier guess (quoted below) and assuming by end of 2007:
5 million gamer PS3 x 4 = 20 million movies
1 million movie PS3 x 16 = 16M
500k BD component x 20 = 10M
Total BD = 46 million movies

1 million addons x 4 = 4M
2 million HD component x 20 = 40M
Total HD = 44 million movies

Seriously, it will be impossible to determine the different attach rates. Only the total number of movies sold in each format will be meaningful.



Let's take a guess at PS3 attach rates. If the early adopter characteristics are about the same in both cohorts (HiDef and Gamers), their disposable incomes are about the same. Given 4 HiDef movies cost about the same as 1 Game, something like [80] % of PS3 owners will have 1/4 the number of movie titles as do the other [20]% of PS3 owners who bought it for movies. I would also suspect that the majority of those (edit: i.e. the 20%) will buy at least 1 game per year, or 4 less movies. So, if the annual attach rate for non-PS3 HiDef players is 20, PS3-HiDef owners attach rate will be 16, and Gamers 4.

Having said the above, I still think there will be a trade-off between purchases of movies and games on the PS3 or add-on. If nothing else the player used for games will be playing fewer movies. So based on an earlier guess (quoted below) and assuming by end of 2007:
5 million gamer PS3 x 4 = 20 million movies
1 million movie PS3 x 16 = 16M
500k BD component x 20 = 10M
Total BD = 46 million movies

1 million addons x 4 = 4M
2 million HD component x 20 = 40M
Total HD = 44 million movies

Seriously, it will be impossible to determine the different attach rates. Only the total number of movies sold in each format will be meaningful.I would count the XBOX360 add-ons as pretty close to the regular standalone players as far as attach rates. Maybe lower because people can play games, but not much lower IMO. Are you estimating 3 million HD DVD players by the end of this year, counting add-ons? DVD did significantly more than HD DVD in their first years, and DVD did less than 1.1 million in year 2 in the US. Are your numbers worldwide, US, North America, or something else?

--Darin

Smartie pants. :D

Touche.

Wait till next month and see what happens. ;)
Eagerly awaiting. ;)

Here are the relative rankings from Rentrak's for the week ending Febuary 11th (from davisdvd):

Blu-ray
1. Open Season
2. Reservoir Dogs
3. Flyboys
4. Saw III
5. American Psycho
6. First Blood
7. Superman Returns
8. Black Hawk Down
9. Crank
10. The Fifth Element

HD DVD
1. Hollywoodland
2. Batman Begins
3. Superman Returns
4. V For Vendetta
5. Casino
6. Pitch Black
7. The Mummy Returns
8. Superman II: Richard Donner
9. Serenity
10. Lucky Number Slevin

Basically, it looks like HD DVD's loan title (a day-and-date release) ended up #1 for that format for the week, while Blu-ray's multiple catalog releases to spots #2, #5, and #6 amongst Blu-ray's titles.

--Darin

Can you tell us the current attach rate for PS3 owners who buy Blu-ray discs? Can you tell us the current attach rate for stand alone Blu-ray owners? Can you tell us the current attach rate for Xbox 360 HD DVD add on owners? Can you tell us the current attach rate for stand alone HD DVD owners?


8 was the number confidently announced the HD DVD promotional group. none was announced BDA .. strange taking into consideration the AGAIN announced they won the war the minute the received the Videoscan 2:1 data ... double strange ... all we know .. the attach rate for PS3 can be negative (not possible? think again) .. if not, why are they so ashamed to announce ;) ..

darin,

Basically, it looks like HD DVD's loan title (a day-and-date release) ended up #1 for that format for the week, while Blu-ray's multiple catalog releases to spots #2, #5, and #6 amongst Blu-ray's titles.

And yet, quite a few BD supporters proclaim that catalog sales are irrelevant in the war, and hence, Universal is a non factor, and that what will win the "war' are the new day and date releases by BD.

Again, a disconnect between the reality and rhetoric.

Are your numbers worldwide, US, North America, or something else? --Darin
Numbers are illustrative only. Haven't been following forecasts here, so I won't try to make adjustments

I also think that the attach rate cant be fixed yet. The PS3 make much people early adopters if they want or not. Ones the PS3 is released in europe i think we gonna have a much more clear situation.

I Hope so.

Greetz

huh . .worsening worldwide attach rate? more hardcore gamers getting PS3 = better BD hardware sales for BDA = PR material = announcing another BD win ;)

darin,

And yet, quite a few BD supporters proclaim that catalog sales are irrelevant in the war ...Can you show me where somebody proclaimed that catalog sales are irrelevant in the war? Just in case it isn't obvious, that is completely different than saying that day-and-date releases tend to count for more in general.

In this case a title that is #64 all time in the imdb.com rankings was able to get above one day-and-date release from the week before, but not the other one, according to this data. It will be interesting to see how they compare next week.

--Darin

darin,



And yet, quite a few BD supporters proclaim that catalog sales are irrelevant in the war, and hence, Universal is a non factor, and that what will win the "war' are the new day and date releases by BD.

Again, a disconnect between the reality and rhetoric.
Actually I conducted a poll on that. The question was in regard to which sells consoles more.

It is not really contested that there are still more HD DVD fans on this forum, yet the result was 2:1 in favor of New Releases:Catalog Classics.

Personally, I believe that the poll majority are correct, again in regard to console sales. What we see here could be the result of all of those PS3 Christmas presents with owners who actually do buy more than a token 1 BD. ;)

do a thread search. Several people have asserted that what is winning the war was new releases were what the factor was. The people claimed that Universal hasnt had a major film since 2001 and that even if Universal were to release Jaws, etc, it wouldnt matter, because people werent interested in catalog titles.

So if you want, search for threads with Universal, Spielberg, etc and you will find assertions to this effect.

Whether you agree or not (and I dont recall you making those claims), the claims were made nontheless - In other words, it was titles like Casino Royale, and not older titles that were providing BDs dominance.

Sony is expected to sell 10-12 million Nov 06 - Dec 07.

impressive !! that is almost 1mil unit for month. wait!! PS3 is already more than 3month the market, has they sold 3mil units yet? ... what the heck .. 1mil maybe. the 6min sales figure is just days away by march u know ... anyhow - i am betting $0.20 with my housemate that Samsung is announcing HD DVD support in April :D :D !! i have ball ... i mean crystal ball !

impressive !! that is almost 1mil unit for month. wait!! PS3 is already more than 3month the market, has they sold 3mil units yet? ... what the heck .. 1mil maybe. the 6min sales figure is just days away by march u know ... anyhow - i am betting $0.20 with my housemate that Samsung is announcing HD DVD support in April :D :D !! i have ball ... i mean crystal ball !

Dear xboxboi, you may want to update your footer to 'HD DVD (52%) ahead of BD (48%)' and do so quickly because the next Videoscan data may come out soon (and my crystal ball suggests that the data will get close to parity). :)

BD movies continuously secondary to HD DVD. NPD=<700K BD players, HD DVD=175K. BD should BY NOW outsold HD DVD 3:1. Yet still Videoscan data HD DVD (55%) ahead of BD(45%). What went wrong?Do you not comprehend the different strategies employed (where PS3s count as players, but not everybody with one will use it for movies) or are you just playing like you don't comprehend? I doubt you think BD should have outsold 3:1 since inception as of 1/21/07 because the PS3 came out late in 2006, but if you do you really should go back and think about how things work a little more.

--Darin

darin,

Do you not comprehend the different strategies employed (where PS3s count as players, but not everybody with one will use it for movies) or are you just playing like you don't comprehend?

Again, not that you are guilty of this, but there are plenty of people around here who claimed and claim that the PS3 would end the war, and a couple of people even claimed that almost every PS3 owner would buy at least 1 movie, and that in general, upwards of 50% of all BD owners would use the PS3 as a BD player. So, under those conditions, his assertions are not that far off the base.

The problem for both sides (and this is true of America in general) is that the loudest most outlandish voices drown out the more reasonalbe middle.

Again, not that you are guilty of this, but there are plenty of people around here who claimed and claim that the PS3 would end the war, and a couple of people even claimed that almost every PS3 owner would buy at least 1 movie, and that in general, upwards of 50% of all BD owners would use the PS3 as a BD player. So, under those conditions, his assertions are not that far off the base.Even with those conditions I think his assertions are way off. He talks about player numbers now and then slips in the percentages for software since inception (a different timeframe), for one thing. We know that the HD DVD camp talked about being 3:1 ahead (at least) at one point for sales, so there was ground to make up even to get to 50/50 since inception, let alone get to 3:1 counting those early sales. Just seems like there is a new strategy here by some to play dumb about the different strategies that Sony and Microsoft took with their consoles (one including it and one making people buy a separate add-on) and the implications of those different strategies to the mathematics of attach rates and the like.

--Darin

Top Blu-Ray Title For Week Ended 2/18/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 THE DEPARTED (WB, $34.99)
2 SUPERMAN RETURNS (WB, $34.99)
3 BLACK HAWK DOWN (SONY, $28.95)
4 THE FIFTH ELEMENT (SONY, $28.95)
5 OPEN SEASON (BV, $34.99)
6 THE GUARDIAN (BV, $34.99)
7 CRANK (LG, $39.99)
8 X-MEN: THE LAST STAND (FOX, $39.98)
9 FLYBOYS (MGM/FOX, $39.99)
10 GOODFELLAS (WB, $28.99)

Top HD DVD Titles For Week Ended 2/18/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 THE DEPARTED (WB, $39.99)
2 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
3 SUPERMAN RETURNS (WB, $39.99)
4 V FOR VENDETTA (WB, $28.99)
5 GOODFELLAS (WB, $28.99)
6 TROY (WB, $28.99)
7 SERENITY (UNI, $29.98)
8 CASINO (UNI, $29.98)
9 HOLLYWOODLAND (UNI, $39.99)
10 LUCKY NUMBER SLEVIN (WEINSTEIN/GENIUS, $29.95)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

Thanks los seres. Interesting things I see are the "Hollywoodland" dropped all the way from #1 to #9 for HD DVD. For Blu-ray, "Open Season" dropped from #1 to #5 and "Flyboys" dropped from #3 to #9 , while and none of the 2/6/07 releases for Blu-ray (all catalog titles) stayed in the top 10. Even "Reservoir Dogs" dropped from #2 all the way out of the top 10.

I think we pretty much knew that "The Departed" would be #1 on both, but it will be nice to get some relative numbers compared to those other titles. Maybe we can figure something out based on how it compares to "Superman Returns" on each and "Batman Begins" on HD DVD (since that has been a consistently top performer).

--Darin

darin,


I see all these sales percentages and so forth, and I think so what? Let us assume the BDA is being truthful, and that they are selling 45,000 discs a month. Let us also assume that the relative percentages at DVD empire are correct, and BD has a 15% advantage.

I look at that and say "big whoop de doo" That 15% translates into what 5K discs per month. Do you, or does anyone else really think that any of the studios are going to change their positions based on a 5-10K monthly difference?

No they arent. I know it is human nature to want to take the advantage where one can, but this borders on the absurd.

Universal may even profit doubly: first sell the movie on HD-DVD, and then -- once the war is settled -- sell the movie again on Blu-Ray.

No seriously, the cost is obviously not the lost sales from being HD-DVD versus Blu-Ray. The cost is the lost sales from all people who decide to wait out the war. Plus, most importantly, how much you pay to get the Blu-Ray rights. If the war gets settled before Universal switches sides, it may be very costly to them. Switching when it matters may give them a nice deal. That's why I believe this war will be settled before Christmas. Simply too much at stake.

I see all these sales percentages and so forth, and I think so what? Let us assume the BDA is being truthful, and that they are selling 45,000 discs a month.The number I saw was 45k per week, not per month.
Let us also assume that the relative percentages at DVD empire are correct, and BD has a 15% advantage.Why would you use DVD Empire's numbers over Videoscan, which covers way more of the whole market? Even so, the advantage that DVD Empire shows for 2007 is 20% (60/40) and looks like even higher for February right now.
I look at that and say "big whoop de doo" That 15% translates into what 5K discs per month.The Videoscan numbers of over 2:1 for the year would translate to about 90k discs for January if the weeks averaged 40k for Blu-ray. Even at 90k for a month I wouldn't expect any studios to switch over that right now, but it reduces the odds of Blu-ray studios going neutral significantly and holding at a 2:1 ratio would be a bad thing for HD DVD long term. That is something they really need to turn around at some point here, at least to some degree.
Universal may even profit doubly: first sell the movie on HD-DVD, and then -- once the war is settled -- sell the movie again on Blu-Ray.As I've said before, I could see a studio on the losing side actually make more money in the long run.
If the war gets settled before Universal switches sides, it may be very costly to them. Switching when it matters may give them a nice deal.That is the way I see it to. It isn't necessarily missed sales, but the possibility of a nice package that could get them thinking. Kind of like owning the last house that a developer needs to buy in order to build a business park or mall.

--Darin

Universal may even profit doubly: first sell the movie on HD-DVD, and then -- once the war is settled -- sell the movie again on Blu-Ray.

No seriously, the cost is obviously not the lost sales from being HD-DVD versus Blu-Ray. The cost is the lost sales from all people who decide to wait out the war. Plus, most importantly, how much you pay to get the Blu-Ray rights. If the war gets settled before Universal switches sides, it may be very costly to them. Switching when it matters may give them a nice deal. That's why I believe this war will be settled before Christmas. Simply too much at stake.

me too .. with Samsung announcing HD DVD support in April, Panasonic and Sharp in June then Chinese CE flooding US market with cheap HD DVD players in Oct .. yupe .. by Christmas all would be over :D :D :D sorry cant help it :p

Darin, I'm curious where you got 45K disks a week?

If it were 45K per week for BD, then HD DVD is doing around 20K. So, the diff is 25K a week, lets say that the weekly gap is even 40K units a week. So, 40K X 52 is around 2M and say the gross per disk is $25, we arrive at $50M annually. So, if BD outsells HD DVD by 40K units per week for the rest of the year, the gross difference in software revenue is $50M. My next question is, as usual, how much is Sony spending in order to capture that extra $50M or so? More than $50M? At a subsidy of $250 for a PS3 that $50M will buy you 200K players. Plus if you factor in the BD marketing and other deals to studios we can start seeing how close we are to the end, and what the 2:1 ratio really means at this stage.

My point is that in the end of the year we'll look at difference in total units sold, not ratio. If BD sells $100M and HD DVD does $75M, both would be considered failures. OTOH, if BD does $500M and HD DVD does $200M, the HD DVD market may still be considered lucrative, al though BD would have a big lead. So volume is more important than ratio

Has anyone seen the poll in the Blu-ray software forums?

It's on PS3 owners and how many BD discs they have purchased. The majority have purchased at least 10 that frequent this forum.

Having said the above, I still think there will be a trade-off between purchases of movies and games on the PS3 or add-on. If nothing else the player used for games will be playing fewer movies. So based on an earlier guess (quoted below) and assuming by end of 2007:
5 million gamer PS3 x 4 = 20 million movies
1 million movie PS3 x 16 = 16M
500k BD component x 20 = 10M
Total BD = 46 million movies

1 million addons x 4 = 4M
2 million HD component x 20 = 40M
Total HD = 44 million movies

Seriously, it will be impossible to determine the different attach rates. Only the total number of movies sold in each format will be meaningful.

Sorry, where are you getting these numbers from?

The standalone players sold almost dead even, so is there a reason to conclude HD-DVD players will sell 4 to 1?

I'm assuming these are US sales? 1 million add-ons? They barely sold 92k in November+December. I think you are bein a little optomistic on that. January numbers were lower than that 45k average.

Let us also assume that the relative percentages at DVD empire are correct, and BD has a 15% advantage.

Everything else aside, where does the 15% figure come from? Everything I see on DVDEmpire shows a 50% lead over HD DVD for 07, and even greater spread ratio-wise in February. So if BD were at 45k/month, then HD DVD would be at 30k/month. Still not a big deal in absolute figures, but just wanted to speak to the 15% figure.

I calculated previously that BD was selling about 11% of its sales since inception in the week of 1/21 to 1/28. With a 45K/week figure, that places the BD SI figure somewhere in the low 400K range. Pretty darn close to what Sony claimed the other day for SI (439K).

Could this be one of the very few times that Sony hasn't actually needed to embellish the truth? :o

Darin, I'm curious where you got 45K disks a week?I think it originally came from Sony. Somebody else mentioned it and when asked gave a link to it. I think that was earlier in this thread, but it might have been a different thread.
My point is that in the end of the year we'll look at difference in total units sold, not ratio. If BD sells $100M and HD DVD does $75M, both would be considered failures. OTOH, if BD does $500M and HD DVD does $200M, the HD DVD market may still be considered lucrative, al though BD would have a big lead. So volume is more important than ratioYou changed the ratio at the same time as the volumes in order to show that the ratio didn't matter. I call that a cheat. :) I agree that volumes matter. If the volumes never pick up then both of these are in some trouble, although maybe they could do a Laserdisc kind of niche (I don't know how many those were selling during their better years). But if a 2:1 ratio for Blu-ray held, I don't see Disney having more pressure on them to go neutral or switch than Universal. Whatever the volumes, if HD DVD wants to be the one exerting the most pressure through lost sales, they they will need a much better ratio than 1:2 against them IMO.

--Darin

HD DVD needs to release more titles.

HD DVD needs to release more titles.That is true. The longer they go without many the tougher it will likely be to make that ground up. Maybe "Blood Diamond" will get announced for both formats for March 20th, but as the release schedule is now that chart that Fox released at CES that showed Blu-ray getting to 3:1 by the end of March (or something like that) which many of us thought was on the crazy side, might actually end up being pretty close after the releases on 3/13 and 3/20 (although even if that happens HD DVD could close the month on a better note with the releases on 3/27).

--Darin

As far as upcoming titles, they both look about even to me. BD is pretty hit and miss with quality movies and Universal has some great titles upcoming.

Cars and Pirates will definitely sell players but I could care less about the movies themselves.

According to this article:

http://www.videostoremag.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10323

it looks like the Since Inception numbers will be 50.3/49.7 after the data for the week ending February 18th. That is from the 100 to 98.71 that they mentioned.

Looks to me like the weekly numbers for February 11th and 18th might be closer than some previous ones given that the rate of change in the SI numbers went from 1.6 for one week, to 1.4 for the next week to 2.2 for the next 2 weeks (averaging 1.1):

Day Week YTD SI
01/07 63.3/36.7 n/a n/a
01/14 68.2/31.8 n/a n/a
01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
02/04 n/a 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9
02/11 n/a n/a n/a
02/18 n/a n/a 50.3/49.7
The weeks don't have to be closer than 68.8/31.2, but I haven't run the math and just have a feeling that they probably were on average. Especially if "The Departed" raised sales on both sides.

BTW: Looks like Ken Graffeo of Universal likes playing dumb too, given this:
Ken Graffeo, the executive in charge of the HD DVD effort for Universal Studios Home Entertainment, said, “Given that the life-to-date title sales ratios are close to 1:1, and given that Blu-ray has a 5:1 ratio right now on the hardware side due to the PS3, why aren’t Blu-ray software sales outpacing HD DVD by a similar ratio?

“In fact, HD DVD players continue to have an attach rate (life to date) that is more than five times that of Blu-ray players.”I wouldn't expect a person who got to his position to actually be that clueless, but the other side can spin pretty well too of course. I notice that he used a life to date attach rate instead of an annualized attach rate, probably because the big lead for hardware didn't come for Blu-ray until late in 2006.

--Darin

BTW: Looks like Ken Graffeo of Universal likes playing dumb too, given this:


Looks like he's reading off xboxboi's sig. ;)

As far as upcoming titles, they both look about even to me. BD is pretty hit and miss with quality movies and Universal has some great titles upcoming.

Cars and Pirates will definitely sell players but I could care less about the movies themselves.
Movie quality is in the perception of the viewer. Making statements about whether you think movies are good or not isn't really meaningful in the context of how well those movies will sell.

What does matter is how popular the movies are. I may personally think a movie is totally unwatchable, but if there are a lot of people that disagree with me and find it entertaining, it's going to sell a lot of copies. That's the way popularity works. :)

Darin,

I changed the ratios to show that 2:1 may be preferable to 2:3, if the former has much higher total volume. Also, pressure to switch to neutrality is based on what studios see is the primary reason for the ratio - content v. hardware. Studios will have an incentive to switch if software is primarily what is driving sales. OTOH, if it's hardware related, then software will go to where the hardware is at....and somewhere in between is probably the actual scenario....

As far a Fox's slide on market share. I think the main problem was that Fox showed HD DVD sales declining with BD increasing. Like I said before, I think the Fox analysis was pretty good on hind sight.

Well, at least we now have a date where Blu-ray surpasses HD DVD for SI. It does appear that the gap has slowed, probably due to huge The Departed sales, but that should pick up again through March with no releases until the last week.

BTW, did Home Media Magazine stop publishing online or do they not give HiDef figures now ?

BTW, did Home Media Magazine stop publishing online or do they not give HiDef figures now ?

No, you can still read the magazine, and they do give hidef figures.

wouldn't expect a person who got to his position to actually be that clueless, but the other side can spin pretty well too of course. I notice that he used a life to date attach rate instead of an annualized attach rate, probably because the big lead for hardware didn't come for Blu-ray until late in 2006. Of course he's spinning that's part of his job. :p

Heck, I know and you know, he's going to use the measure most favorable to HD DVD. Doesn't mean that it doesn't some validity though.

But it is a valid point, that the lifetime attach rate is a more consistent measure over time.

It would be a bit extravagent on Blu-ray's part to annualize the PS3 launch attach rate to the year because it has a lot of one time factors in it. At least when the HD DVD PRG did it, it was applying to devices bought as movie players.

That its a distinct possibility that the PS3 attach rates will fall over time as less Blu-ray first adopters buy them , or that they were inflated by the BOGO or the rebates that were included in the PS3 box.

Of course he's spinning that's part of his job. :p

Yup. I don't fault him.

That its a distinct possibility that the PS3 attach rates will fall over time as less Blu-ray first adopters buy them
...and as the BD standalones drop in price... as they already are doing... like the Sammy. ;)

Sorry, where are you getting these numbers from?

The standalone players sold almost dead even, so is there a reason to conclude HD-DVD players will sell 4 to 1?

I'm assuming these are US sales? 1 million add-ons? They barely sold 92k in November+December. I think you are bein a little optomistic on that. January numbers were lower than that 45k average.
I was just demonstrating a methodology. If anyone has good/better numbers......

Latest Videoscan sales chart attached..

b2b

Latest Videoscan sales chart attached..

b2b

Did I miss something? Those numbers are for the 18th, but we never got the 11th?

Latest Videoscan sales chart attached..

b2b

:)

Like you said, Kosty, "Just wait and see what happens in the coming months." (paraphrase)

And as I said, "I'm eagerly awaiting" ;)

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=766588 :(

If HD DVD can keep up with a release schedule like this, they must be selling a lot of the second generation players.

I hope they have enough copies of Batman Begins, Superman Returns and Serenity in stock. :rolleyes:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=766588 :(

If HD DVD can keep up with a release schedule like this, they must be selling a lot of the second generation players.
Keep up?


Looks like you've got a few titles coming at the end of March and the following months. I haven't heard of most of them, but I guess I don't watch enough PBS. ;)

At least maintain the current rate of sales.

But then Blu-ray is depending on mass penetration for its players on the PS3, which is losing in console sales to something called the Wii.

Tough to maintain that momentum at $499 or $599 a pop. What happens when the rebates run out?

BTW: Looks like Ken Graffeo of Universal likes playing dumb too, given this:
I wouldn't expect a person who got to his position to actually be that clueless, but the other side can spin pretty well too of course. I notice that he used a life to date attach rate instead of an annualized attach rate, probably because the big lead for hardware didn't come for Blu-ray until late in 2006.


Odd he'd do something like that, huh? :rolleyes:

HD DVD: 10 months
PS/3: 3 months

Gary

At least maintain the current rate of sales.

But then Blu-ray is depending on mass penetration for its players on the PS3, which is losing in console sales to something called the Wii.

Tough to maintain that momentum at $499 or $599 a pop. What happens when the rebates run out?
They're also about to start getting some games.
Virtua Fighter 5 came out on Tuesday and next Tuesday Formula 1 Championship Edition comes out.

That may not sell well in North America, where football and F1 are not big sports, but it will sell very well in Europe and Australia where there are more diehard F1 fans who love playing simulations.

MLB 07 The Show comes out in April exclusively right as the baseball season starts and looks pretty phenominal so far.

Europe's launch will be far more attractive to gamers as well as people looking for a good blu-ray player.

PLAYSTATION 3 LAUNCH TITLE LINE-UP

Resistance: Fall of Man™ - SCEE - Disc
MotorStorm™ - SCEE - Disc
Genji™: Days of the Blade - SCEE - Disc
FORMULA ONE CHAMPIONSHIP EDITION - SCEE - Disc
Ridge Racer™ 7 - SCEE - Disc
Tekken®: Dark Resurrection - SCEE - Network
Lemmings™ - SCEE - Network
Go! Sudoku - SCEE - Network
Go! Puzzle - SCEE - Network
Blast Factor™ - SCEE - Network
flOw™ - SCEE - Network
Super Rub’a'Dub - SCEE - Network
Call of Duty 3 - Activision UK Ltd - Disc
Marvel: Ultimate Alliance - Activision UK Ltd - Disc
Tony Hawk’s Project 8 - Activision UK Ltd - Disc
Gundam – Target in Sight - Namco Bandai Games - Disc
Full Auto™ 2: Battle Lines - Sega®Europe Ltd - Disc
Sonic the Hedgehog™ - Sega®Europe Ltd - Disc
Virtua Fighter™ 5 - Sega®Europe Ltd - Disc
Virtua Tennis™ 3 - Sega®Europe Ltd - Disc
World Snooker Championship 2007 - Sega®Europe Ltd - Disc
NBA 2K7 - Take 2 International SA - Disc
NHL 2K7 - Take 2 International SA - Disc
Blazing Angels Squadrons of WWll - Ubisoft Entertainment SA - Disc
Enchanted Arms - Ubisoft Entertainment SA - Disc
Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell: Double Agent - Ubisoft Entertainment SA - Disc
The Elder Scrolls lV: Oblivion - Ubisoft Entertainment SA - Disc
Def Jam: Icon - Electronic Arts Ltd - Disc
Fight Night Round 3 - Electronic Arts Ltd - Disc
NBA Street 4 Homecourt 2007 - Electronic Arts Ltd - Disc
Need for Speed Carbon - Electronic Arts Ltd - Disc
The Godfather: The Don’s Edition - Electronic Arts Ltd - Disc
Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2007 - Electronic Arts Ltd - Disc
Untold Legends: Dark Kingdom - Electronic Arts Ltd - Disc
F.E.A.R. Vivendi - Universal Games Intl SA - Disc
Gripshift - Sony Online Entertainment - Network


Not to mention the future list of titles.

February 20, 2007 College Hoops 2K7 2K Sports Sports
February 20, 2007 Virtua Fighter 5 SEGA Fighting
February 26, 2007 flOw Sony Computer Entertainment Action
February 26, 2007 Go! Puzzle Sony Computer Entertainment Puzzle
February 27, 2007 Formula One Championship Edition Sony Computer Entertainment Racing
March 5, 2007 Major League Baseball 2K7 2K Games Sports
March 6, 2007 MotorStorm Sony Computer Entertainment Racing
March 6, 2007 NBA Street Homecourt Electronic Arts Sports Action
March 6, 2007 Def Jam: Icon Electronic Arts Fighting
March 12, 2007 Calling All Cars Sony Computer Entertainment Action
March 13, 2007 Enchanted Arms Ubisoft RPG
March 13, 2007 Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion, The Bethesda Softworks RPG
March 13, 2007 F.E.A.R. Vivendi Games Shooter
March 20, 2007 Armored Core 4 SEGA Action
March 20, 2007 Virtua Tennis 3 SEGA Sports
March 20, 2007 Godfather: The Don's Edition, The Electronic Arts Action
March 20, 2007 Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Vegas Ubisoft Shooter
March 27, 2007 Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell Double Agent Ubisoft Action
April 3, 2007 Brothers in Arms: Hell's Highway Ubisoft Shooter
April 3, 2007 MLB '07: The Show Sony Computer Entertainment Sports
May 2007 Spider-Man 3 Activision Action Adventure
May 2007 Darkness, The 2K Games Action
May 2007 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End Buena Vista Games Action
May 2007 Burnout 5 Electronic Arts Racing
May 2007 Lair Sony Computer Entertainment Action
May 2007 Saints Row THQ Action Adventure
June 2007 Half-Life 2: Orange Box Electronic Arts Shooter
June 2007 SEGA Rally Revo SEGA Racing
June 2007 Club, The SEGA Action
June 2007 Warhawk Sony Computer Entertainment Flight Action
June 2007 Eye of Judgment: Conquerors of 9 Fields, The Sony Computer Entertainment Card Battle
June 2007 Ratatouille THQ Action
June 2007 Hellboy Konami Action
June 2007 Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter 2 Ubisoft Shooter
June 2007 Fatal Inertia KOEI Racing Action
June 2007 Fantastic 4: Rise of the Silver Surfer Take-Two Interactive Action Adventure
June 2007 Bladestorm: The Hundred Years' War KOEI Strategy
June 2007 Bigs, The 2K Sports Sports
June 2007 Rogue Warrior Bethesda Softworks Shooter
June 2007 Ninja Gaiden Sigma Tecmo Action
June 2007 SingStar Sony Computer Entertainment Music
June 2007 DIRT: Colin McRae Off-Road Codemasters Racing
June 2007 Stuntman 2 THQ Racing Action
July 2007 Hot Shots Golf 5 Sony Computer Entertainment Sports Action
July 2007 Alone in the Dark Atari Adventure
July 2007 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Electronic Arts Adventure
August 2007 John Woo Presents Stranglehold Midway Games Action Adventure
August 2007 Assassin's Creed Ubisoft Action
August 2007 Madden NFL 08 Electronic Arts Sports
September 2007 Dark Sector D3 Publisher Shooter
September 2007 Turok Buena Vista Games Action
September 2007 Unreal Tournament 3 Midway Games Shooter
Q3 2007 ShadowClan *TBA Action
Q3 2007 Transformers (2007) Activision Action
Q3 2007 Frontlines: Fuel of War THQ Shooter
Q3 2007 All-Pro Football 2K8 2K Sports Sports
Q3 2007 BlackSite: Area 51 Midway Games Action
Q3 2007 Heavenly Sword Sony Computer Entertainment Action
Q3 2007 Monster Madness SouthPeak Interactive Action
Q3 2007 Nihilistic PS3 Project [untitled] *TBA Action
Q3 2007 People Can Fly Project [untitled] THQ Action
Q3 2007 Medal of Honor: Airborne Electronic Arts Shooter
October 16, 2007 Grand Theft Auto IV Rockstar Games Action Adventure
Q4 2007 Fall of Liberty Codemasters Shooter
Q4 2006 Spider-Man Trilogy Activision Action
Q4 2007 Mortal Kombat Next-Gen [untitled] Midway Games Fighting
Q4 2007 WWE SmackDown! vs. Raw 2008 [unofficial title] THQ Wrestling
Q4 2007 Clive Barker's Jericho Codemasters Action
Q4 2007 Coded Arms Assault Konami Shooter
Q4 2007 Army of Two Electronic Arts Action
Q4 2007 Ratchet & Clank PS3 Sony Computer Entertainment Action
Q4 2007 Wheelman, The Midway Games Action
Q4 2007 Naughty Dog PS3 Project [untitled] Sony Computer Entertainment Action Adventure
Q4 2007 Marvel Nemesis 2 Electronic Arts Fighting Action
Q4 2007 Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots Konami Action
Q4 2007 Golden Axe SEGA Action
Q4 2007 Mercenaries 2: World in Flames Electronic Arts Shooter
Q4 2007 Haze Ubisoft Shooter
TBA 2007 Getaway Sony Computer Entertainment Action
TBA 2007 Dirty Harry Warner Bros. Interactive Action
TBA 2007 Spark Unlimited Atari Project [untitled] Atari Action
TBA 2007 Metronome *TBA Adventure
TBA 2007 KOEI "Guan Yu" PS3 Project [untitled] KOEI Other
TBA 2007 Killzone PS3 Sony Computer Entertainment Shooter
TBA 2007 John Carpenter's Psychopath *TBA Shooter
TBA 2007 Project Delta Playlogic Shooter
TBA 2007 Eyedentify Sony Computer Entertainment Other
TBA 2007 Section 8 *TBA Shooter
TBA 2007 211 *TBA Action
TBA 2007 Rockstar Old West PS3 Project [untitled] Rockstar Games Action
TBA 2007 Possession *TBA Strategy
TBA 2007 Championship Sprint Sony Online Entertainment Racing
TBA 2007 Rampart Sony Online Entertainment Strategy
TBA 2007 Rampage World Tour Sony Online Entertainment Action
TBA 2007 Joust Sony Online Entertainment Action
TBA 2007 Gauntlet II Midway Games Action
TBA 2007 Mortal Kombat II Sony Online Entertainment Fighting
TBA 2007 Severity Cyberathlete Professional League (CPL) Shooter
TBA 2007 thatgamecompany Project #2 [untitled] Sony Computer Entertainment
TBA 2007 thatgamecompany Project #3 [untitled] Sony Computer Entertainment
TBA 2007 NHL 2K8 2K Sports Sports
TBA 2007 NBA 2K8 2K Sports Sports
TBA 2007 Winning Eleven: Pro Evolution Soccer PS3 [untitled] Konami Sports
TBA 2007 Battlefield: Bad Company Electronic Arts Shooter
TBA 2007 Cryptic Studios MMO Project [untitled] *TBA RPG
TBA 2007 Age of Conan Eidos Interactive Action RPG
TBA 2007 Daybreakers *TBA Shooter
TBA 2007 Heat *TBA Action
TBA 2007 Guillermo Del Toro's Sundown *TBA Action
TBA 2007 Codename: Panzers Next-Gen [untitled] 10TACLE Studios Action Simulation
TBA 2007 Star Wars: Next-Gen [untitled] LucasArts Action
TBA 2007 Big Time Revenge *TBA Action Adventure
TBA 2007 Terra: Formations *TBA Action
TBA 2007 Wheel of Fortune Sony Computer Entertainment Trivia
TBA 2007 Guitar Hero PS3 RedOctane Music
TBA 2007 Skate Electronic Arts Sports
TBA 2007 Alive Ubisoft Action
TBA 2007 Criminal [RUMORED] Midway Games Action
TBA 2007 Penny Arcade Adventures [TBA] *TBA Adventure
TBA 2007 Alliance: The Silent War *TBA Shooter
TBA 2007 Sony Online Whimsical MMO [untitled] Sony Online Entertainment RPG
TBA 2007 Sony Online Mercenary / Spy MMO [untitled] Sony Online Entertainment RPG
TBA 2007 Destineer Spy Project [untitled] *TBA Action
TBA 2007 Spark Unlimited Sierra Project [untitled] Vivendi Games Action
TBA 2007 Beowulf *TBA Action Adventure
TBA 2007 LucasArts / Day 1 Action Project [untitled] LucasArts Action
TBA 2007 X Quest *TBA RPG
TBA 2007 Luxoflux Next-Gen Project [untitled] Activision Action Adventure
TBA 2007 Infinity Ward Next-Gen Project [untitled] Activision Shooter
TBA 2007 Zipper Interactive PS3 Project [untitled] Sony Computer Entertainment Action
TBA 2007 Shaun White Snowboarding [untitled] Ubisoft Sports
TBA 2007 Sucker Punch Project [untitled] *TBA Action
TBA 2007 High Moon Studios project [untitled] Vivendi Games Action Adventure
TBA 2007 Surreal Software Project [untitled] Midway Games Other
TBA 2007 Obsidian RPG Project [untitled] SEGA Action RPG
TBA 2007 Silicon Knights Next-Gen Project [untitled] SEGA Action
TBA 2007 WarDevil *TBA Action
TBA 2007 FIA World Touring Car Championship *TBA Racing
TBA 2007 Interstellar Marines *TBA Shooter
TBA 2007 Simpsons [next-gen], The Electronic Arts Action
TBA 2007 Factor 5 Project #2 [untitled] Sony Computer Entertainment Action
TBA 2007 Eight Days Sony Computer Entertainment Action
TBA 2007 Project Offset *TBA Shooter
TBA 2007 Metro 2033: The Last Refuge *TBA Shooter
TBA 2007 L.A. Noire Rockstar Games Adventure
TBA 2007 Gretzky NHL [working title] Sony Computer Entertainment Sports
Q1 2008 Wall, The Play Ten Interactive (PTI) Shooter
May 2008 James Bond 007 (200 [untitled] Activision Action
Q3 2008 Beijing 2008 SEGA Sports
Q3 2008 Heavy Rain *TBA Adventure
TBA 2008 Fifth Phantom Saga SEGA Shooter
TBA 2008 Orson Scott Card's Empire *TBA Shooter
TBA 2008 Cipher Complex *TBA Action Adventure
TBA 2008 Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning Electronic Arts RPG
TBA 2008 Lost Ubisoft Adventure
TBA 2008 Jak and Daxter: The Lost Frontier Sony Computer Entertainment Action
TBA 2008 Final Fantasy XIII Square Enix Action RPG
TBA 2008 100 Bullets D3 Publisher Action
TBA 2008 Vigil Games Project [untitled] THQ Action
TBA 2008 TNA iMPACT! Midway Games Wrestling
TBA 2008 Iron Man: The Movie SEGA Action Adventure
TBA 2008 Black [next-gen] Electronic Arts Shooter
TBA 2008 Harker *TBA Action Adventure
TBA 2008 Gran Turismo 5 Sony Computer Entertainment Racing
TBA 2008 Devil May Cry 4 Capcom Action
TBA 2008 Final Fantasy Versus XIII Square Enix Action RPG
TBA 2008 Soulcalibur IV [Untitled] Namco Bandai Games America Fighting
TBA 2008 2 Days to Vegas *TBA Action
TBA 2008 DC Universe Sony Online Entertainment RPG
TBA 2008 Madagascar 2 Activision Action
TBA 2008 Indiana Jones 2007 LucasArts Action
TBA 2008 Tekken 6 Namco Fighting
TBA 2009 Omikron KARMA Adventure
TBA 2009 Alien -- RPG Project [untitled] SEGA RPG
TBA 2009 Alien -- FPS Project [untitled] SEGA Shooter


http://ps3.ign.com/index/release.html

You don't buy a console for one year.

Of course he's spinning that's part of his job. :p

Heck, I know and you know, he's going to use the measure most favorable to HD DVD. Doesn't mean that it doesn't some validity though.

But it is a valid point, that the lifetime attach rate is a more consistent measure over time.


But, it isn't a consistent stat for comparison purposes unless the time frames are equalized in some way. And he was using it for comparison purposes.

We have had Microsoft spokepeople comparing Xbox 360 to PS/3 sales in Japan the same way. 'The XBox 360 ain't doing so bad, it has 1/2 the sales of the PS/3'. :)

Gary

More data for statistical navel-gazing... ;)

Latest "Top 5" sales chart attached (2-11-07)..

b2b

More data for statistical navel-gazing... ;)

Latest "Top 5" sales chart attached (2-11-07)..

b2b

Sony's best selling title is probably their worst rated title. How crazy is that!

Did I miss something? Those numbers are for the 18th, but we never got the 11th?

Exactly. It seems they skipped sales ratios for the 11th.

However we have the top 5 for the week ending on the 11th.

YTD BD 100.00 HD DVD 48.43 (67.4/32.6)
SI BD 100.00 HD DVD 98.71 (50.3/49.7)

Top 5 BD
1. The Fifth Element 100.00
2. Underworld Evolution 92.76
3. Open Season 83.69
4. Saw III 77.28
5. Into the Blue 71.60

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Batman Begins 100.00
2. Lucky Number Slevin 78.08
3. Troy 56.17
4. Goodfellas 47.63
5. Miami Vice 46.96

Odd he'd do something like that, huh? :rolleyes:

HD DVD: 10 months
PS/3: 3 months

Gary You would rather start after the PS3 launch?

That last 3 month period would include a console Xmas sales season and product launch of the first Blu-ray player under $599, one time rebates,a gap between first and second HD DVD players and a lack of HD DVD releases and a surge in Blu-ray releases.

Why should he just compare the last three months?

Do you think that set of circumstances will happen again?

At least maintain the current rate of sales.
Oh, you mean the current rate of sales that is consistently half that of BD. That rate of sales. :)

Sony's best selling title is probably their worst rated title. How crazy is that!


I came to the same conclusion. Meanwhiel it is probably in line with the typical PS3 owner demographic.

They're also about to start getting some games.
Virtua Fighter 5 came out on Tuesday and next Tuesday Formula 1 Championship Edition comes out.

That may not sell well in North America, where football and F1 are not big sports, but it will sell very well in Europe and Australia where there are more diehard F1 fans who love playing simulations.

MLB 07 The Show comes out in April exclusively right as the baseball season starts and looks pretty phenominal so far.

Europe's launch will be far more attractive to gamers as well as people looking for a good blu-ray player.



Not to mention the future list of titles.



You don't buy a console for one year.
As a result the typical PS3 owner will stop watching Blu-Ray to start playing games. :D

Oh, you mean the current rate of sales that is consistently half that of BD. That rate of sales. :) Yes , that one that has been also been consistent over a period of time that there has been few new releases. :rolleyes:

The one that also will probably increase dramatically as lower priced player sales acculmulate as a owner player base and those dedicated movie watching owners with probable tendencies for high attach rates are able to start buying some new releases.

When the new releases eventually come. * Sigh* :(

When the new releases eventually come. * Sigh* :(
Casino Royale is just over a fortnight away! :)

Casino Royale is just over a fortnight away! :)
Yeah, sorry Kosty, but I fear things are just going to get worse for your camp.

We'll see, I guess.

As a result the typical PS3 owner will stop watching Blu-Ray to start playing games. :D
Yes, good thing there will be a solid rise in PS3 sales, when the games start to roll out, to counter that. :)

Exactly. It seems they skipped sales ratios for the 11th.

However we have the top 5 for the week ending on the 11th.

YTD BD 100.00 HD DVD 48.43 (67.4/32.6)
SI BD 100.00 HD DVD 98.71 (50.3/49.7)

Top 5 BD
1. The Fifth Element 100.00
2. Underworld Evolution 92.76
3. Open Season 83.69
4. Saw III 77.28
5. Into the Blue 71.60




But Amazon say the top 5 in-release Blu-ray best sellers (well at Amazon anyway) are:

The Prestige
The Departed
Babel
Superman Returns
Black Hawk Down


What did I miss? Why are these charts so different?

The only bright side for HD DVD is that BD isn't pulling away any faster right now. Though that could well change with Bond on the case...

http://66.103.156.190/images/eva/eva102/newchart.jpg

Sony's best selling title is probably their worst rated title. How crazy is that!

It probably has to do with the fact that Best Buy had a sale that stated on the 4th and went through the 10th where you could buy one, get one free.

Three of the titles (of six) involved were "Underworld: Evolution", "Into The Blue", and "The Fifth Element". Even though I have no Blu-Ray capable machine, my plans to get a PS3 in May made this deal too tempting to pass up, so I purchased "Underworld: Evolution" and got "Into The Blue" for free...

~Alan

http://66.103.156.190/images/eva/eva102/newchart.jpg Just like the PC mag ratio chart.

It implies a raw drop off in HD DVD sales, and that isnt the case.

A more accurate telling is something like the Amazon top 10 average chart


http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/5859/salesrank11allyg0.jpg


a sales volume or dollar sales chart would have a similar shape

Just like the PC mag ratio chart.

It implies a raw drop off in HD DVD sales, and that isnt the case.
Yeah, and Blu-ray has been in the 65 range for awhile. ;)

But it is a valid point, that the lifetime attach rate is a more consistent measure over time.It is also a good way to hide that one format has been out longer. Should we compare sales per week since inception? I believe that HD DVD had at least a 6 week head start, which would mean about 43 weeks for them to 37 for Blu-ray. Even at 50/50 since inception that would mean that Blu-ray had to sell on average about 16% more per week since inception. We could also look at where each was after 37 weeks on the streets. While Blu-ray started the race later, there average speed has been higher. To turn things around from this point HD DVD needs to get their average speed higher than Blu-ray's.
That its a distinct possibility that the PS3 attach rates will fall over time as less Blu-ray first adopters buy them , or that they were inflated by the BOGO or the rebates that were included in the PS3 box.Yes, the attach rate for Blu-ray could go down, but HD DVD's could also given their strategy of trying to bundle their players with TVs with a discount (a somewhat different demographic than early adopters who bought the players with no special incentives).
If HD DVD can keep up with a release schedule like this, they must be selling a lot of the second generation players.It seems like you want there to be a lot of second generation player sales for HD DVD and so find that in any data that even seems to contradict it. As an example, if Blu-ray was selling maybe 42,000 copies per week average through the first 5 weeks of the year when the ratio YTD was 67.4/32.6, then HD DVD would have sold a little over 100,000 copies of movies total over those 5 weeks. They said they had 175k+ players at the end of 2006 and I see about 11 new releases for January. Even with no new players that that wouldn't be a real high rate. What evidence are you actually seeing of the kinds of player sales that you predicted? If you are going to point to "Batman Begins", what evidence do you see of even over 10k sales for that one for January? Some of whatever it did sell would be going to those 175k+ owners from 2006, also.
It probably has to do with the fact that Best Buy had a sale that stated on the 4th and went through the 10th where you could buy one, get one free.I was thinking of the Fry's sale that included "The Fifth Element", but I don't remember the dates. Was Best Buy really running one of these for the 4th thru 10th of February? I remember them doing one back in January and then another later, but I didn't think it was that recent.

--Darin

Just like the PC mag ratio chart.

It implies a raw drop off in HD DVD sales, and that isnt the case.

No. It shows a loss of market share. It doesn't imply unit sales at all.

Just like the PC mag ratio chart.

It implies a raw drop off in HD DVD sales, and that isnt the case.

A more accurate telling is something like the Amazon top 10 average chart


http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/5859/salesrank11allyg0.jpg


a sales volume or dollar sales chart would have a similar shape
Please explain how these aren't accurate? Do you have data that proves it's not accurate? If this chart is indeed accurate, it's looking worse for HD-DVD than I thought. :eek:

BTW, that link you provided is DOA on my end.

A more accurate telling is something like the Amazon top 10 average chart

http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/5859/salesrank11allyg0.jpg

a sales volume or dollar sales chart would have a similar shapeHere is the chart you've said was a better indicator than the top 10 average chart. This is the number of titles in the top 1000.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/graphs/top1000-1-1-All.jpg

Also, by using that chart you did the dropoff from their best levels for HD DVD is hidden because things compress so much at the top. If that chart only showed values between 1000 and 2000 then you would be able to see how much the rankings for HD DVD have dropped off since closer to the beginning of October when they were down under 400 at times (compared to over 900 right now).

BTW: On all these charts the drop and then rise about a week ago should be pretty much ignored given that it looks like it was due to a change in calculation method by Amazon.

--Darin

My point is that in the end of the year we'll look at difference in total units sold, not ratio. If BD sells $100M and HD DVD does $75M, both would be considered failures. OTOH, if BD does $500M and HD DVD does $200M, the HD DVD market may still be considered lucrative, al though BD would have a big lead. So volume is more important than ratio.[/QUOTE
[QUOTE=plazman]I changed the ratios to show that 2:1 may be preferable to 2:3, if the former has much higher total volume.The ratios you used where 1.33:1 and 2.5:1 with the 2.5:1 being better, so I'm not sure what you are saying here. Maybe there was a typo in your first numbers.
Also, pressure to switch to neutrality is based on what studios see is the primary reason for the ratio - content v. hardware. Studios will have an incentive to switch if software is primarily what is driving sales. OTOH, if it's hardware related, then software will go to where the hardware is at....and somewhere in between is probably the actual scenario....That's fair. Studios should be looking at how their software is likely to sell and these things are just indicators. The smart ones will consider how their software is likely to sell after any potential decisions.
As far a Fox's slide on market share. I think the main problem was that Fox showed HD DVD sales declining with BD increasing. Like I said before, I think the Fox analysis was pretty good on hind sight.I think they pretty much showed HD DVD staying the same. They may have overestimated for both sides as it looks like they had HD DVD at around 50k per week and much higher for Blu-ray by now.

http://img144.imagevenue.com/img.php?image=69506_fox_graphic_122_455lo.jpg

--Darin

Another telling fact is that the Top 10 rank for HD DVD's has come within 100 points of the Top 25 rank for BD several times over the last month and a half.
I think it's only a matter of time before we start to see the top 25 BD titles being ranked higher than the top 10 HD DVD titles.

The consumers have decided.

So do we have weekly shares or not? If not, should I be suspecting another conspiracy here ;)

As long as HD DVD is ahead, show BD is gain. When BD is ahead, don't show HD DVD improved their share. Hey, just kidding :)

That's not a healthy chart for HD DVD! Where's the growth over time? Where are the influx of new buyers? It looks pretty stagnant, and now in decline.

I believe the studios have decided to slowly kill off HD DVD.

I believe the studios have decided to slowly kill off HD DVD.
O.K. Agent Mulder. ;)

First off, as others have stated, that would require a whole lot of people keeping there traps shut!

The only motivation that I can think of vs. announcing BD exclusivity, would be to keep from pi$$ing HD DVD fans off, but maybe you could expand on your theory.

I'm open-minded about it. Shoot.

I believe the studios have decided to slowly kill off HD DVD.

I have seen you throw out this theory many times today, and I am giving it some thought. It would be interesting to see Warner and Universal take a proactive stance behind the scenes, and still maintain their stances.

As far as I'm concerned, Paramount is doing enough to say they are participating, but that's about it.

I have seen you throw out this theory many times today, and I am giving it some thought. It would be interesting to see Warner and Universal take a proactive stance behind the scenes, and still maintain their stances.

As far as I'm concerned, Paramount is doing enough to say they are participating, but that's about it.

Food for thought:

Blu-ray friendly studios join forces to promote Blu-ray in the UK (http://www.hdtvuk.tv/2007/02/bluray_friendly.html)

A number of home entertainment studios have joined forces to jointly promote the Blu-ray high definition disc format in the UK.

Buena Vista Home Entertainment, Lions Gate Home Entertainment, Paramount Home Entertainment, Sony Pictures Home Entertainment, Twentieth Century Fox Home Entertainment, and Warner Brothers Home Entertainment, have pledged to work together in recognition that by uniting, they have a better chance of getting the message across that Blu-ray should be the HD disc format of choice.

I like to see the original quote or Press Release and not just the *ahem* editorial summary ;)

O.K. Agent Mulder. ;)

First off, as others have stated, that would require a whole lot of people keeping there traps shut!

The only motivation that I can think of vs. announcing BD exclusivity, would be to keep from pi$$ing HD DVD fans off, but maybe you could expand on your theory.

I'm open-minded about it. Shoot.
Having said all of that, allow my to back-peddle a wee bit, here.

When the "neutral" studios began to slow their HD DVD releases, I thought there might be something to that. Then we heard they were waiting for BDj. Well that sounded like there WAS something to that.

As a BD camper, I was not surprised. The only thing that was surprising me was Universal hanging on. With a little introspection, I figured that was just my bias talking.

Then thinking about it a little, it just seemed too hard a secret to keep and I couldn't understand why the heck the neutrals would not have just gone BD exclusive!

Food for thought:

Blu-ray friendly studios join forces to promote Blu-ray in the UK (http://www.hdtvuk.tv/2007/02/bluray_friendly.html)
(Twilight Zone theme)

Paramount's home video division is a mess right now, so this lack of releases from them is unsurprising.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6418854.html

HD DVD plugs into Circuit City
Support from retailer, Microsoft could help format against Blu-ray

Sally reported that through Feb. 13, sales of Toshiba’s second HD-A2 ($499) and HD-XA2 ($999), which went on sale in late December, have eclipsed the lifetime sales of the company’s first-generation players. But lifetime sales of HD DVD and BD titles are running fairly even—at about 700,000 discs sold for each format through Feb. 10, according to one studio.
Retailers remain upbeat about HD DVD, and some say they are anticipating a $100 price cut from Toshiba on its second-generation players. That would bring the manufacturer’s basic model down to as low as $399.

“You’ll see the lower pricing in 30 to 60 days,” said one retail source. “For Toshiba to hit the sell-through numbers that it wants, I expect to see a base level of $299 this fall.”“Let’s say the software sales are about even, and you’ve got five times as much hardware on the Blu-ray side as you have on the HD DVD side,” said one executive. “That means your attach rates for HD DVD are higher than your attach rates for Blu-ray,” he said, pointing to 1 million PlayStation 3 and stand-alone BD devices combined in homes, versus about 200,000 HD DVD players that have sold, including stand-alones and Xbox 360 add-on drives

$399 HD A2 prices within 60 days. $299 HD DVD players by this fall.

$399 HD A2 prices within 60 days. $299 HD DVD players by this fall.

Good news for...... HD fans.

Further Discussion on the above article in the main battle thread.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=769114

Good news for...... HD fans.
Yeah, that'll be great if there are any HD DVD discs left on the shelves by then. ;) :)

Yeah, that'll be great if there are any HD DVDs left on the shelves by then. ;) :)
Not even sure what that means, are you implying they'll (Toshiba) fold by the fall? if so you'd be foolish to assume that. If you mean their selling out... thats about as improbable as the first one.

But most retailers believe that current sales levels of HD DVD and BD are far too small to indicate real strength in either format. :D


Circuit City officials declined to discuss their merchandising strategy for HD DVD software now that the chain is also carrying players, but it’s believed the titles, which were previously mixed in with standard DVDs, are getting prominence on par with BD releasesSeparately, in good news for both formats, Borders started offering both HD DVD and BD titles in about 30 to 50 of its stores around the beginning of the year, according to studio sources. Borders declined comment. :)

Video Business: No high-def winner yet (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6419351.html)

http://a330.g.akamai.net/7/330/2540/20060705155547/www.videobusiness.com/contents/images/vbSweetingLg.jpg
Kosty?