Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 [Text View]

Grubert

01-31-07, 04:28 PM

Week ending July 8, 2007
Week: 66/34 BD/HD
Year: 67/33 BD/HD
SI: 60/40 BD/HD

What does that mean?

Week: During the week ending on the date shown above, of every 100 hidef disc units sold, 66 were
Blu-ray and 34 HD DVD.
YTD (year-to-date): in the period from Jan 1, 2007, of every 100 hidef disc units sold, 67 were Blu-ray and 33 HD DVD.
SI (since inception): since the inception of both formats (April 2006 to the date shown above), of every 100 hidef disc units sold, 60 were Blu-ray and 40 HD DVD.

Relative sales of dual-format simultaneous new releases

It has been argued that the sales of exclusive titles don't tell us much about the format war, and that we should look at the relative sales of titles that get released on both formats.

Date Title BD/HD Source
092606 The Lake House 1.27 NV03
103106 Mission Impossible III 0.99 HMM05
110706 Nacho Libre 1.19 NV03
112806 Ant Bully 0.62 NV03
Superman Returns 1.14 HMM05
121206 World Trade Center 1.12 NV03
121906 Lady in the Water 1.05 NV03
013007 The Wicker Man 1.43 NV03
021307 The Departed 1.64 HMM06
022007 Babel 1.14 HMM05
032707 Happy Feet 1.65 HMM06
042407 Planet Earth 0.72 HMM06
050107 Dreamgirls 1.53 NVRW
051507 The Fountain 1.50 NVRW
052207 Flags of Our Fathers 1.39 NVRW
Letters from Iwo Jima 1.21 NVRW
060507 Norbit 2.04 NVRW
062607 Black Snake Moan 1.56 NVRW+1

HMM05: Data by Home Media Magazine as of May 27, 2007
HMM06: Data by Home Media Magazine as of June 24, 2007
NV03: Data from Nielsen VideoScan as of March 18, 2007
NVRW: Data based on release week Nielsen VideoScan figures
NWRW+1: Data based on week after release, Nielsen VideoScan figures

Historical BD/HD DVD percentages

Day Week YTD SI
01/07 63.3/36.7 63.3/36.7 41.2/58.8
01/14 68.2/31.8 65.7/34.3 43.2/56.8
01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
02/04 69.0/31.0 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9
02/11 69.6/30.4 67.7/32.3 49.3/50.7
02/18 65.0/35.0 67.4/32.6 50.3/49.7
02/25 68.5/31.5 67.4/32.6 51.5/48.5
03/04 65.7/34.3 67.2/32.8 52.2/47.8
03/11 68.7/31.3 67.9/32.1 52.8/47.2
03/18 81.7/18.3 69.2/30.8 54.3/45.7
03/25 n/a 70.4/29.6 55.6/44.4
04/01 n/a 69.9/30.1 56.2/43.8
04/08 62.4/37.6 69.4/30.6 56.4/43.6
04/15 61/39 69/31 57/43
04/22 52/48 68/32 57/43
04/29 71/29 68/32 58/42
05/06 60/40 68/32 57/43
05/13 62/38 68/32 57/43
05/20 58/42 67/33 57/43
05/27 69/31 67/33 58/42
06/03 61/39 67/33 59/41
06/10 66/34 67/33 59/41
06/17 64/36 67/33 59/41
06/24 70/30 67/33 59/41
07/01 65/35 67/33 60/40
07/08 66/34 67/33 60/40

Important update: April 6, 2007 Sony released to the media a report tracking weekly sales of high-definition packaged media - both HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc - from 10/1/06 through the week ending 3/18/07. The report, entitled Next Generation Disc Tracking Report, was prepared with sales figures from Nielsen VideoScan. It's the first such detailed sales data we've really seen, featuring graphical breakdowns by format, title and studio. The document has been posted in its entirety on thedigitalbits, with permission by Sony. Unfortunately it now has been pulled down.

In 2007, Home Media Magazine has begun publishing Blu-ray vs HD DVD sales information. To access the magazine, scroll down the page. On the left you'll see a box entitled "This Week's Digital Edition", and underneath the text "Read It Now! Click Here". Click that.

The information consists of relative percentages between BD and HD DVD, weekly, year-to-date and "since inception", as well as the weekly top 5 for BD and HD DVD, and their relative sales within each format.

This information has been combined with that feature on the following articles on PC Magazine:

Making Sense of the High-Def DVD Numbers (http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1895,2093290,00.asp) (posted February 9)

Blu-ray Clearly Leading in Next-Gen DVD Sales (http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1895,2104850,00.asp) (posted March 16)

Additionally, Home Media Magazine has posted a summary of Blu-ray and HD DVD sales in the first quarter of 2007 on this article: Blu-ray Wins Q1 (http://www.homemediamagazine.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10559)

Historical data

http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/170/neilsonhdmarketsharejunwh9.jpg

Important notes: the data for the weeks ended Jan 7 and Jan 14 did not include HD DVD combo sales. The data before April 8 didn't include weekly percentages and were expressed somewhat differently.
Week ending March 25, 2007
YTD: BD 100/ HD DVD 42.13
SI: BD 100/ HD DVD 79.77

Week ending March 18, 2007
YTD: BD 100/ HD DVD 44.44
SI: BD 100/ HD DVD 84.07

Week ending March 11, 2007
YTD: BD 100/ HD DVD 47.37
SI: BD 100/ HD DVD 89.25

Week ending March 4, 2007
YTD BD 100.00 HD DVD 48.73
SI BD 100.00 HD DVD 91.46

Week ending February 25, 2007
YTD BD 100.00 HD DVD 48.30
SI BD 100.00 HD DVD 94.25

Week ending February 18, 2007
YTD BD 100.00 HD DVD 48.43
SI BD 100.00 HD DVD 98.71

Week ended February 11
YTD BD 100.00 HD 47.62
SI BD 97.08 HD 100.00

Week ended February 4
YTD: BD 100.00 HD 48.38
SI: BD 92.56 HD 100.00

Week ended January 28
YTD: BD 100.00 HD 49.21
SI: BD 87.76 HD 100.00

Week ended January 21
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00

Week ended January 14
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD 38.36
SI: BD 92.40/ HD 100.00

Week ended January 7
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD 47.14
SI: BD 85.05/ HD 100.00

Thanks to Stephanie Prange of Home Media Magazine and Mark Hachman of PC Magazine for their continued followup information beyond the call of duty.

A listing of retailers reporting to Nielsen VideoScan can be found here (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9767608&&#post9767608).

Actual sales figures

The percentages published weekly don't give us actual unit sales. However, some more specific information has been released during 2007:

1. Nielsen VideoScan report up to March 18

Sales in 2006: 297,041 Blu-ray/462,562 HD DVD
Sales since inception to March 18 sales: 846,771 Blu-ray/712,013 HD DVD
(data from Nielsen VideoScan)

2. HMM article, Blu-ray wins Q1 (http://www.homemediamagazine.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10559)

Sales between Jan. 1 and March 31: 832,530 Blu-ray/359,300 HD DVDs
Since inception to March 31, 2007: 1.2 million Blu-ray/937,500 HD DVDs.
March: 335,980 Blu-ray; 119,570 HD DVDs.
(data from HMM market research)

2. HMM special issue, Hollywood goes hi-def (http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom061707/index.php?startpage=53)

Sales since inception to May 27, 2007: 1,637,090 Blu-ray/1,192,410 HD DVD
(data from HMM market research)

Grubert

01-31-07, 04:28 PM

Week ending July 8, 2007

Top 10 hidef sellers

1. Ghost Rider BD 100.00
2. PotC: DMC BD 90.46
3. Planet Earth BD 82.35
4. The Patriot BD 82.30
5. PotC: CotBP BD 80.00
6. Apocalypto BD 75.26
7. Casino Royale BD 75.05
8. Bridge to Terabithia BD 73.83
9. Blood Diamond HD 70.10
10. Planet Earth HD 56.94

xx Black Snake Moan BD 46.38
xx Batman Begins HD 37.65
xx Untouchables HD 31.63
xx Blood Diamond BD 29.75
xx Black Snake Moan HD 29.74

Week ending June 24, 2007

Top 10 hidef sellers

1 (1) Ghost Rider BD 100.00
2 (-) Bridge to Terabithia BD 84.65
3 (8) Casino Royale BD 59.46
4 (2) Planet Earth HD 43.03
5 (4) Apocalypto BD 35.65
6 (5) PotC DMC BD 34.14
7 (6) Planet Earth BD 33.51
8 (7) PotC CBP BD 28.53
9 (-) Open Season BD 23.10
10 (3) Breach 22.71

xx Letters from Iwo Jima BD 14.80
xx Batman Begins HD 13.50
xx Letters from Iwo Jima HD 10.96
xx Complete Matrix Trilogy HD 9.01

Week ending June 17, 2007

1 (-) Ghost Rider BD 100.00
2 (4) Planet Earth HDDVD 26.72
3 (-) Breach HDDVD 21.19
4 (1) Apocalypto BD 13.69
5 (2) Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BD 13.60
6 (7) Planet Earth BD 13.12
7 (3) Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl BD 11.34
8 (9) Casino Royale BD 10.05
9 (6) Blood Diamond BD 6.71
10 (-) Primeval BD 6.69

xx Letters from Iwo Jima BD 6.49
xx Batman Begins HDDVD 6.33
xx Flags of Our Fathers HDDVD 5.88
xx Letters from Iwo Jima HDDVD 5.77
xx Flags of Our Fathers BD 4.92

Week ending June 10, 2007

1 (3) Apocalypto (BD) 100
2 (1) Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (BD) 98.55
3 (2) Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl (BD) 84.33
4 (4) Planet Earth HD DVD 82.27
5 (-) Norbit BD 77.78
6 (-) Blood Diamond BD 74.95
7 (7) Planet Earth BD 62.17
8 (-) The Messengers BD 51.05
9 (10) Casino Royale BD 44.44
10 (9) Letters from Iwo Jima BD 38.65

xx Norbit HD DVD 38.18
xx Ultimate Matrix Collection HD DVD 27.53
xx Letters from Iwo Jima HD DVD 26.05
xx Complete Matrix Trilogy HD DVD 24.11

Week ending June 3, 2007

Top 10 high-def sellers

1 (1) Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (BD) 100.00
2 (2) Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl (BD) 84.63
3 (3) Apocalypto (BD) 82.92
4 (8) Planet Earth (HD) 41.26
5 (5) Letters from Iwo Jima (BD) 33.23
6 (4) Ultimate Matrix (HD) 30.19
7 (8) Planet Earth (BD) 28.97
8 (6) Complete Matrix (HD) 28.21
9 (7) Letters from Iwo Jima (HD) 27.48
10 (9) Casino Royale (BD) 24.30

xx Flags of Our Fathers (BD) 18.51
xx Curse of the Golden Flower (BD) 18.11
xx Flags of Our Fathers (HD) 17.49

Aggregate by Title
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest 100.00
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: curse of the Black Pearl 84.63
3. Apocalypto 82.92
4. Planet Earth 71.45
5. Letters from Iwo Jima 60.70
6. Flags of Our Fathers 35.90
7. Ultimate Matrix Collection 30.19
8. Complete Matrix Trilogy 28.21
9. Casino Royale 24.30
10. Curse of the Golden Flower 18.11

Week ending May 27, 2007

Top 20 YTD through 5/27. Where applicable disaggregated sales are included in brackets (BD+HD DVD).

1. The Departed 100,500 (62,700+37,800)
2. Casino Royale 83,600
3. Planet Earth 44,700 (19,300+25,400)
4. Happy Feet 40,100 (25,500+14,600)
5. The Prestige 34,700
6. Superman Returns 34,100 (22,600+11,500)
7. Night at the Museum 28,100
8. Babel 27,000 (14,400+12,600)
9. Batman Begins 25,900
10. Crank 24,800
11. PotC: Dead Man's Chest 23,700
12. Goodfellas 23,300 (12,100+11,200)
13. Mission: Impossible III 22,900 (13,100+9,800)
14. Déjà Vu 22,700
15. Black Hawk Down 21,600
16. PotC: Curse Black Pearl 21,100
17. The Fifth Element 20,900
18. Saw III 20,400
19. Underworld: Evolution 19,100
20. Rocky Balboa 18,600

Top 20 SI through 5/27. Where applicable disaggregated sales are included in brackets (BD+HD DVD).

1. The Departed 100,500 (62,700+37,800)
2. Superman Returns 84,100 (44,800+39,300)
3. Casino Royale 83,600
4. Batman Begins 53,500
5. Mission Impossible III 51,300 (25,500+25,800)
6. Planet Earth 44,700 (19,300+25,400)
7. Happy Feet 40,100 (25,500+14,600)
8. Goodfellas 38,200 (12,100+26,100)
9. The Prestige 34,700
10. The Fifth Element 33,800
11. The Last Samurai 32,500 (10,100+22,400)
12. X-Men: The Last Stand 32,000
13. Underworld: Evolution 31,400
14. Ice Age: The Meltdown 28,300
15. Night at the Museum 28,100
16. Black Hawk Down 27,900
17. Talladega Nights 27,700
18. Babel 27,700 (14,400+12,600)
19. Serenity 26,200
20. Troy 26,100

Top 10 high-def sellers
1 POTC: Dead Man's Chest BD 100.00
2 POTC: Black Pearl BD 89.35
3 Apocalypto BD 73.73
4 Ultimate Matrix Coll HD 33.28
5 Letters from Iwo Jima BD 26.68
6 Complete Matrix Coll HD 25.88
7 Letters from Iwo Jima HD 22.06
8 Planet Earth HD 17.55
9 Casino Royale BD 13.64
10 Flags of our Fathers BD 11.86
xx Planet Earth BD 11.57*
yy Flags of our Fathers HD 8.54*

* Deduced from other data released.

Top 10 high-def sellers (Aggregate by title)**
1 POTC: Dead Man's Chest BD 100.00
2 POTC: Black Pearl BD 89.35
3 Apocalypto BD 73.73
4 Letters from Iwo Jima BD&HD 48.74
5 Ultimate Matrix Coll HD 33.28
6 Planet Earth BD&HD 29.12
7 Complete Matrix Coll HD 25.88
8 Flags of our Fathers BD&HD 20.40
9 Casino Royale BD 13.64
10 The Fountain BD&HD 13.40

**Combined sales of dual-format releases

Week ending May 20, 2007

Top 10 hidef sellers

1 (-) The Fountain BD 100.00
2 (1) Planet Earth HD 84.89
3 (-) The Fountain HD 66.64
4 (2) Planet Earth BD 61.80
5 (-) Stomp the Yard BD 50.01
6 (5) Casino Royale BD 41.61
7 (3) Night at the Museum BD 38.23
8 (4) Deja Vu BD 34.96
9 (-) Digital Video Essentials HD 23.70
10 (-) Batman Begins HD 23.52

Top 5 BD
1. The Fountain 100.00
2. Planet Earth 61.80
3. Stomp the Yard 50.01
4. Casino Royale 41.61
5. Night at the Museum 38.23

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Planet Earth 100.00
2. The Fountain 78.50
3. Digital Video Essentials 27.92
4. Batman Begins 27.70
5. Smokin' Aces 24.95

Week ending May 13, 2007

1. (1) Planet Earth HD DVD 100.00
2. (2) Planet Earth BD 66.03
3. (3) Night at the Museum BD 49.43
4. (4) Deja Vu BD 46.45
5. (7) Casino Royale BD 41.66
6. (5) Dreamgirls BD 31.21
7. (9) Smokin' Aces HD DVD 20.41
8. (6) Dreamgirls HD DVD 18.20
9. (-) Happy Feet BD 17.37
10. (-) The Departed BD 17.20

Top 5 BD
1. Planet Earth 100.00
2. Night at the Museum 74.86
3. Deja Vu 70.34
4. Casino Royale 63.10
5. Dreamgirls 47.26

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Planet Earth 100.00
2. Smokin' Aces 20.41
3. Dreamgirls 18.20
4. Alpha Dog 14.58
5. Batman Begins 14.46

Week ending May 6, 2007

Top 10 hidef sellers
1. Planet Earth HD DVD 100
2. Planet Earth BD 95.07
3. Night at the Museum BD 78.28
4. Deja Vu BD 68.84
5. Dreamgirls BD 67.59
6. Dreamgirls HD 44.17
7. Casino Royale BD 33.32
8. Alpha Dog HD DVD 28.91
9. Smokin' Aces HD DVD 24.42
10. Digital Video Essentials HD DVD 23.78

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Planet Earth 100
2. Dreamgirls 44.17
3. Alpha Dog 28.91
4. Smokin' Aces 24.42
5. Digital Video Essentials 23.78

Top 5 BD
1. Planet Earth 100.00
2. Night at the Museum 82.34
3. Deja Vu 72.41
4. Dreamgirls 71.09
5. Casino Royale 33.05

Week ending April 29, 2007
This was the first week where a "High-def sellers" list was published

High-def Sellers
1. Night at the Museum BD 100.00
2. Deja Vu BD 75.04
3. Planet Earth HD DVD 32.78
4. Planet Earth BD 24.14
5. The Queen BD 17.29
6. Smokin' Aces HD DVD 17.24
7. Casino Royale BD 14.33
8. Happy Feet BD 7.19
9. Black Hawk Down BD 7.05
10. The Departed BD 5.82

Top 5 BD
1. Night at the Museum 100.00
2. Deja Vu 75.04
3. Planet Earth 24.14
4. The Queen 17.29
5. Casino Royale 14.33

Top 5 HD-DVD
1. Planet Earth 100.00
2. Smokin' Aces 52.60
3. Digital Video Essentials 16.47
4. Batman Begins 13.98
5. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind 13.00

Week ending April 22, 2007

Top 5 BD

1. Casino Royale 100.00
2. Happy Feet 50.60
3. The Departed 36.57
4. The Pursuit of Happyness 33.85
5. The Prestige 29.43

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Smokin' Aces 100.00
2. Batman Begins 14.79
3. The Good Shepherd 10.83
4. Children of Men 9.57
5. Happy Feet 9.34

Week ending April 8, 2007

Top 5 BD

1. Casino Royale 100.00
2. Happy Feet 93.99
3. The Pursuit of Happyness 65.80
4. Rocky Balboa 31.21
5. Eragon 29.87

Top 5 HD DVD
1. The Good Shepherd 100.00
2. Happy Feet 55.18
3. Children of Men 41.69
4. Batman Begins 30.91
5. The Departed 23.82

Week ended March 25, 2007

Top 5 BD
1 Casino Royale 100.00
2. Rocky Balboa 62.66
3. Eragon 57.72
4. The Departed 19.73
5. The Prestige 9.48

Top 5 HD DVD
1. The Departed 100.00
2. Batman Begins 69.69
3. Babel 54.55
4. Troy 50.26
5. Goodfellas 38.45

Week ended March 18, 2007

Top 5 BD
1. Casino Royale 100.00
2. The Departed 10.83
3. The Prestige 6.02
4. The Holiday 5.20
5. Layer Cake 4.26

Top 5 HD DVD
1. The Departed 100.00
2. Batman Begins 55.96
3. Babel 50.75
4. Clerks II 43.33
5. Troy 38.36

Week ended March 11, 2007

Top 5 BD
1. The Departed 100.00
2. The Prestige 67.62
3. Babel 35.84
4. Stranger than Fiction 32.49
5. Black Hawk Down 24.25

Top 5 HD DVD
1. The Departed 100.00
2. Babel 44.24
3. Batman Begins 36.10
4. Troy 23.17
5. Goodfellas 18.23

Week ended March 4, 2007

Top 5 BD
1. The Departed 100.00
2. The Prestige 81.40
3. Stranger than Fiction 47.82
4. Babel. 35.04
5. Superman Returns 18.31

Top 5 HD DVD
1. The Departed 100.00
2. Babel 45.07
3. Batman Begins 27.17
4. Troy 15.01
5. Goodfellas 13.95

Week ended February 25, 2007

Top 5 BD
1 The Prestige 100.00
2. The Departed 73.67
3. Babel 36.31
4. Open Season 9.42
5. Superman Returns 9.33

Top 5 HD DVD
1. The Departed 100.00
2. Babel 61.41
3. Batman Begins 21.69
4. Lucky Number Slevin 14.59
5. Troy 11.84

Week ended February 11, 2007

Top 5 BD
1. The Fifth Element 100.00
2. Underworld Evolution 92.76
3. Open Season 83.69
4. Saw III 77.28
5. Into the Blue 71.60

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Batman Begins 100.00
2. Lucky Number Slevin 78.08
3. Troy 56.17
4. Goodfellas 47.63
5. Miami Vice 46.96

Week ended February 4, 2007

Top 5 BD
1 Open Season 100.00
2 Flyboys 83.94
3 Saw III 66.72
4 The Guardian 44.12
5 The Fifth Element 33.55

Top 5 HD DVD
1 Batman Begins 100.00
2 Troy 48.95
3 Superman Returns 45.90
4 V for Vendetta 42.41
5 Lucky Number Slevin 41.71

Week ended January 28, 2007

Top 5 BD
1. Saw III 100.00
2. The Guardian 56.63
3. Crank 20.50
4. Saw II 17.00
5. Superman Returns 16.63

Top 5 HD
1. Batman Begins 100.00
2. Clerks II 69.30
3. Lucky Number Slevin 66.92
4. Superman Returns 54.11
5. The Mummy Returns 48.26

Week ended January 21, 2007

Top 5 BD
1. Crank 100.00
2. Gridiron Gang 96.88
3. Black Hawk Down 92.35
4. Underworld: Evolution 84.46
5. Employee of the Month 71.86

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Clerks II 100.00
2. Batman Begins 90.04
3. The Mummy Returns 87.67
4. Lucky Number Slevin 72.84
5. Troy 45.61

Week ended Jan 14

Top 5 BD
1. Crank 100
2. Black Hawk Down 38.51
3. Underworld: Evolution 38.49
4. Superman Returns 36.48
5. Talladega Nights 35.95

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Batman Begins 100.00
2. Mission: Impossible III 59.24
3. Troy 46.58
4. V for Vendetta 44.95
5. Goodfellas 38.20

Week ended Jan 7

Top 5 BD
1 The Covenant 100.00
2. X-Men: The Last Stand 73.42
3. Superman Returns 73.13
4. Talladega Nights 72.31
5. The Descent 53.86

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Batman Begins 100.00
2. Troy 46.58
3. Goodfellas 40.89
4. V for Vendetta 37.97
5. The Last Samurai 37.09

Schlotkins

01-31-07, 04:31 PM

As an HD-DVD only guy (for the next 3 months), I have to say those numbers are pretty painful.

hmurchison

01-31-07, 04:34 PM

As an HD-DVD only guy (for the next 3 months), I have to say those numbers are pretty painful.

I don't share the pain. There have been more new releases coming from the Blu-ray camp. Many HD DVD owners are sitting on their wallets waiting for a release that's worthy of a purchase.

This is further borne out by the fact that The Departed sold so well on both platforms but particularly well on HD DVD despite the price premium and lack of lossless audio. Once Universal/Paramount/Warner get off their arses and drop a few good titles we'll see the numbers improve.

Maxpower1987

01-31-07, 04:37 PM

I don't share the pain. There have been more new releases coming from the Blu-ray camp. Many HD DVD owners are sitting on their wallets waiting for a release that's worthy of a purchase.

This is further borne out by the fact that The Departed sold so well on both platforms but particularly well on HD DVD despite the price premium and lack of lossless audio. Once Universal/Paramount/Warner get off their arses and drop a few good titles we'll see the numbers improve.

I thought The Departed on HD DVD came with TrueHD, I could well be mistaken though.

Grubert

01-31-07, 04:39 PM

This is further borne out by the fact that The Departed sold so well on both platforms but particularly well on HD DVD despite the price premium and lack of lossless audio.

Not that it matters, but The Departed has lossless audio on HD DVD and BD.

Now back to topic, please.

Sean_O

01-31-07, 04:45 PM

Not surprising since there has been such a glut of new releases on HD DVD.

Schlotkins

01-31-07, 04:45 PM

It does appear here that the HD-DVD side is suffering from a lack of new releases. All of those listed are pretty old versus some newer titles for the blu-ray side. I think we'll have to see what happens when Universal picks up its titles.

Grubert-

Was there any information on total volume? I suspect it's still an extremely lower percentage of total discs sold.

Thanks,
Chris

ShagMan

01-31-07, 04:47 PM

Ouch, those numbers hurt for the HD-DVD camp.

However, as somebody else has noted, it's really due (IMO) to the total lack of releases lately.

The HD-DVD studios really dropped the ball on releases.

Gotta love the staying power of Batman Begins, wowsah!

b.greenway

01-31-07, 04:48 PM

Grubert, whats the headline titled at HMM? I cant seem to find it.

--nevermind, found it--

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 04:52 PM

Incredible, in one week alone (Jan 7th vs Jan 14th) BD managed to bridge the "since inception" gap between itself and HD DVD by a further 7%, to 92:100. The weekly sales figures *strongly* favor Blu-ray, and the week-over-week shows a gain in momentum rather than a leveling.

Grubert

01-31-07, 04:54 PM

Grubert-

Was there any information on total volume? I suspect it's still an extremely lower percentage of total discs sold.

Unfortunately no. But I agree, volumes must be infinitesimal.

As a point of reference, just think Dreamworks has just let Aardman Studios go, inter alia because they only sold 5.1 million units of the Wallace & Gromit movie (vs 20.4 million copies of Madagascar).

plazman

01-31-07, 04:56 PM

At last! Some figures have begun to be posted by Home Media Magazine (www.homemediamagazine.com)

They are giving relative percentages between BD and HD DVD, both year-to-date and "since inception", as well as the weekly top 5 for BD and HD DVD, as well as their relative sales within each format.

So, without further ado...

Week ended Jan 14
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 38.36
SI: BD 92.40, HD 100.00

Week ended Jan 7
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 47.14
SI: BD 85.05, HD 100.00

Excellent to finally get some reliable data. This is great news for the BDA and it does look like they are going to achieve a 3:1 sales ratio (100:33) in the coming months. I do believe that Videoscan covers 65% of all sales (AFAIK), and so is easily the most concerete data we have so far.

Also, looking at the data, it looks like it was all hardware driven since the top titles for both formats were older ones and not related to the most recent releases. Looking at this data, I have to say I have been wrong and that a game console - the PS3 will be the deciding factor. There are not enough titles on HD DVD and not enough xbox fans that will pick up the HD drive to counter the PS3 for now....

BD sold 62% more titles than HD DVD! That's huge.

FWIW. I can't find the info on their site though....

nyg

01-31-07, 04:58 PM

Thanks for the post Grubert. This confirms everything we already knew though. Blu-ray is winning the format war and doing so with the aid of the PS3 despite some of the critics who said the PS3 would be a complete nonfactor.

Innerloop

01-31-07, 04:59 PM

At last! Some figures have begun to be posted by Home Media Magazine (www.homemediamagazine.com)

They are giving relative percentages between BD and HD DVD, both year-to-date and "since inception", as well as the weekly top 5 for BD and HD DVD, as well as their relative sales within each format.

So, without further ado...

Week ended Jan 14
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 38.36
SI: BD 92.40, HD 100.00

Week ended Jan 7
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 47.14
SI: BD 85.05, HD 100.00

So just so I make sure we are understanding this clearly--

These are relative percentages with the higher of the two being normalized to "100%" and the other expressed relative to the higher of the two?

So "Since Inception" BD has moved 92.4% as many units of software as HD-DVD, meaning its basically caught up, given that we're a couple weeks beyond that figure and the rate of increase would imply an easy overtake?

And Year-to-date sales of Blu ray media as of the most recent figure is 2.6X the sales of HD-DVD?

In some ways these numbers match with DVDEmpire. They seems more unbalanced than the Amazon numbers.

If these are authoritative, it does a few things:

- Helps prove DVD Empire numbers are pretty accurate.
- Helps prove Amazon numbers are somewhat HD-DVD slanted
- help almost prove that BD software sales since inception have passed up HD-DVD.

That's a pretty big deal. I couldn't find that data on the website - do you have a direct link, or was it only in print editions?

nyg

01-31-07, 05:00 PM

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 05:01 PM

I feel like hosting a DC Area BD victory party. (Plazman, maybe you can come!) I think Washington has got to be one of - if not *the* - most heavily represented area of the country on this entire forum.

We'll watch movies and play games on the PS3. :cool:

hmurchison

01-31-07, 05:01 PM

I thought The Departed on HD DVD came with TrueHD, I could well be mistaken though.

Ooops sorry.

Interesting that Batman Begins and Serenity and older titles are doing well. I think this points to new users coming in and keeping the format going.

The PS3 is definitely taking effect but I don't think this is anything that the HD DVD group hasn't seen coming. The palpable anger her regarding HD DVD lack of releases is mirrored probably the the larger group of HD DVD owners. The good news is we're seeing more HD DVD advertisments and with some releases of newer movies HD DVD will make a comeback. I"m sure of it.

Dahlsim

01-31-07, 05:05 PM

Looking at this data, I have to say I have been wrong and that a game console - the PS3 will be the deciding factor. There are not enough titles on HD DVD and not enough xbox fans that will pick up the HD drive to counter the PS3 for now....

BD sold 62% more titles than HD DVD! That's huge.

I'd say you have to credit Sony for using the promise of the PS3 so effectively. Measuring the effect of the PS3 on sales itself could only be done accurately if you had similar Hollywood support on both formats.

Of course if you combine the PS3 with the fact that studio support is heavily BD oriented then you have an obvious result. There's not much for hd-dvd owners, xbox or otherwise to buy...

Maxpower1987

01-31-07, 05:06 PM

Interesting that Batman Begins and Serenity and older titles are doing well. I think this points to new users coming in and keeping the format going.

The PS3 is definitely taking effect but I don't think this is anything that the HD DVD group hasn't seen coming. The palpable anger her regarding HD DVD lack of releases is mirrored probably the the larger group of HD DVD owners. The good news is we're seeing more HD DVD advertisments and with some releases of newer movies HD DVD will make a comeback. I"m sure of it.

See, I am not so sure, these people will have to wait until April until the next 'wave' of Universal titles, if they are into HT, they know they will be missing out and the best way to counter that is with a PS3 for $500, so the question is, will people wait or will they buy a PS3, and by the looks of it a considerable number will buy a PS3 (judging by action of many HD DVD guys on this forum).

Grubert

01-31-07, 05:07 PM

So just so I make sure we are understanding this clearly--

These are relative percentages with the higher of the two being normalized to "100%" and the other expressed relative to the higher of the two?

So "Since Inception" BD has moved 92.4% as many units of software as HD-DVD, meaning its basically caught up, given that we're a couple weeks beyond that figure and the rate of increase would imply an easy overtake?

And Year-to-date sales of Blu ray media as of the most recent figure is 2.6X the sales of HD-DVD?

Exactly right.

In some ways these numbers match with DVDEmpire. They seems more unbalanced than the Amazon numbers.

If these are authoritative, it does a few things:

- Helps prove DVD Empire numbers are pretty accurate.
- Helps prove Amazon numbers are somewhat HD-DVD slanted

They are because a lot of Europeans and Aussies have bought/imported HD DVD players (much more than BD players) and we're buying from amazon/dvdpacific like crazy. empire is not so overseas-friendly so their sales represent American sales more accurately IMO.

- help almost prove that BD software sales since inception have passed up HD-DVD.

That's a pretty big deal. I couldn't find that data on the website - do you have a direct link, or was it only in print editions?

Scroll down a little. On the left you'll see a box entitled "This Week's Digital Edition", and underneath the text "Read It Now! Click Here". Click that.

The relative BD/HD ratios are on page 1. Top 5 are on page 8.

plazman

01-31-07, 05:08 PM

So just so I make sure we are understanding this clearly--

These are relative percentages with the higher of the two being normalized to "100%" and the other expressed relative to the higher of the two?

So "Since Inception" BD has moved 92.4% as many units of software as HD-DVD, meaning its basically caught up, given that we're a couple weeks beyond that figure and the rate of increase would imply an easy overtake?

And Year-to-date sales of Blu ray media as of the most recent figure is 2.6X the sales of HD-DVD?

In some ways these numbers match with DVDEmpire. They seems more unbalanced than the Amazon numbers.

If these are authoritative, it does a few things:

- Helps prove DVD Empire numbers are pretty accurate.
- Helps prove Amazon numbers are somewhat HD-DVD slanted
- help almost prove that BD software sales since inception have passed up HD-DVD.

That's a pretty big deal. I couldn't find that data on the website - do you have a direct link, or was it only in print editions?

These are all true IF the data as reported is true. For now, I can't find it on their site. So, unless someone points me to a link that shows the actual data, I will have to start second guessing...

However, if this data is true. Then we are seeing the end of HD DVD. Like I said, new content had very little impact on the top 5 titles. It was all PS3!

It would illustrate a tremendous hardware momentum that again would prove that Fox was right about HD DVD being unable to create a beach head. Once again, I would have been wrong in my analysis.

Basically, I would have screwed up badly and had it been my job, I would expect to be fired :)

joshd2012

01-31-07, 05:13 PM

hmurchison

01-31-07, 05:19 PM

See, I am not so sure, these people will have to wait until April until the next 'wave' of Universal titles, if they are into HT, they know they will be missing out and the best way to counter that is with a PS3 for $500, so the question is, will people wait or will they buy a PS3, and by the looks of it a considerable number will buy a PS3 (judging by action of many HD DVD guys on this forum).

AVS patrons are atypical of the consumer IMO. Let us be a little honest here. There are a million PS3 in homes out there versus what 300k of HD DVD players? We're getting a good idea of what numbers of PS3 it will take to usurp HD DVD sales.

I think it's roughly around 3x. This is important because this is near the estimated numbers for HD DVD players sales (1.8-2.5 million Worldwide vs 6 million PS3)

So clearly the HD DVD group must ensure they are selling %40 of what the Blu-ray camp sells. Feb and March still look pretty lean for HD DVD so I expect Blu-ray to continue to pull ahead unless some more announcements are slotted in for HD DVD.

This battle is interesting to say the least.

plazman

01-31-07, 05:24 PM

I'll be there! :D

At least one can't blame Universal and Warner for this. Appears the Sony delivered enough PS3 to control losses in their gaming division to an acceptable level, while ensuring that BD takes control of the format battle.

In my books 75% market share is the magic number at which the other format goes away. I believe one reason Warner could be waiting is to see if BD can indeed get upto the 75% mark by June.

It is also remarkable that dvdempire results were so in line with Videoscan. Perhaps, they ARE reporting videoscan results on their site. For the first and second weeks of Jan, the Videocan numbers reported by Grubert almost mirror dvdempire. It's also interesting that like Grubert's numbers, even dvd empire is using % share.

Anyway. I'd assume that the BDA will use it for their case, if these numbers are verifiable and true. Which I still don't know :confused:

xelloss12

01-31-07, 05:24 PM

joshd2012

01-31-07, 05:30 PM

At least one can't blame Universal and Warner for this.

Absolutely not. No one could logically expect a single studio (Universal) to but out as much units as four studios (Sony, Fox, Disney, Lionsgate) combined. Its just not possible.

And lets be honest. The HD DVD group has these numbers. They know whats going on. Don't expect them to throw in the towel just yet.

hmurchison

01-31-07, 05:34 PM

briankmonkey

01-31-07, 05:39 PM

lol, now numbers don't mean that much anymore. Of course they did before when the numbers were quite different.

Great thread, thanks Grubert :)

nyg

01-31-07, 05:41 PM

Numbers today simply don't mean that much. Neither format has a huge installed base of dedicated players.

Refresh my memory, how long did DIVX last in its war against DVD? Seriously folks, I think this format war will be over sooner rather than later.

Mark0

01-31-07, 05:46 PM

Got to admit, I think more folks have bought the PS3 as a standalone BD player than I anticipated. If Sony cuts the price to boost sales like they're considering, I just may pull the trigger myself ;)

makingmusic476

01-31-07, 05:46 PM

People keep pointing out that HD DVD is currently plagued by a lack of good releases, and that is why Blu-Ray has passed up HD DVD in sales. If you look at it that way, it seems HD DVD will always be in a slump, once you compare its upcoming release list to Blu-Ray's.

darinp2

01-31-07, 05:47 PM

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Batman Begins 100.00
2. Mission: Impossible III 59.24
3. Troy 46.58
4. V for Vendetta 44.95
5. Goodfellas 38.20From this and what I've seen from sales on Amazon, I would say that those who want HD DVD to win should be hoping that it is a long time before "Batman Begins" gets released on Blu-ray and vis versa for Blu-ray fans. "V for Vendetta" is another one that seems to be helping HD DVD by not being out on Blu-ray yet.
This is further borne out by the fact that The Departed sold so well on both platforms but particularly well on HD DVD despite the price premium and lack of lossless audio.As far as "The Departed" it is only preorders that we've seen (with HD DVD leading early and Blu-ray leading now on Amazon), but it wouldn't surprise me if in the end we see "The Departed" sell better on HD DVD than Blu-ray on Amazon and then later find out that it actually sold better on Blu-ray as a whole. There have been at least a couple of things that have made me think that Blu-ray software was already outselling HD DVD software when the Amazon rankings still had HD DVD showing as the leader for the top 10 by about 650 to 1050. The overseas sales might be part of it, but I also suspect that people on this site are more likely to buy from Amazon than the general HD player owners overall, we've known for a while that people were tracking this site, and the population here has favored HD DVD over Blu-ray as a whole for a while. One person mentioned buying movies they wouldn't buy just to support HD DVD, but didn't say where they bought them. That is probably happening some for both sides, but when a group like the one here tends to have more support for one side I think that could skew the results. I hope there isn't cheating going on, but if there were, it would be a whole lot easier to skew the results at Amazon than at general retailers.
Once Universal/Paramount/Warner get off their arses and drop a few good titles we'll see the numbers improve.Universal releasing some good stuff is likely to help especially, but even if it does, the improvement might come from worse numbers for the HD DVD camp than those above, unless the HD DVD camp gets something really positive between now and then. I noticed that the HD-A2 finally started showing a nice ranking position on Amazon this week and the HD-XA2 looks like it is selling very well for a product of that price on Amazon. But with "Casino Royale" and other things coming, it does seem like the HD DVD camp could use some good news between now and April.

--Darin

joshd2012

01-31-07, 05:52 PM

DigitalfreakNYC

01-31-07, 05:54 PM

Refresh my memory, how long did DIVX last in its war against DVD? Seriously folks, I think this format war will be over sooner rather than later.

Great.

So that means we'll be stuck with extra-less (or near extra-less) overpriced BD discs?

This still means nothing because the general public doesn't care.

briankmonkey

01-31-07, 05:56 PM

I'd rather have overpriced BD disc than the even more expensive HD-DVD combo's.

hmurchison

01-31-07, 05:58 PM

Refresh my memory, how long did DIVX last in its war against DVD? Seriously folks, I think this format war will be over sooner rather than later.

Not long. Consumers looked at it and most thought it was the most ridiculous premise they had ever heard.

I think the war could be over "soon" as in late 2008. That's my definition of soon. If people think it'll be over in 2007 that's preposterous. This year is more jockeying for position and getting more players/media into homes. Consumer critical mass hasn't been reached by any stretch.

theflux

01-31-07, 05:58 PM

I'd rather have overpriced BD disc than the even more expensive HD-DVD combo's.

Agreed. I'd rather save $5 and miss out on extras I'd only watch once, if ever.

tvted

01-31-07, 05:59 PM

Not surprising since there has been such a glut of new releases on HD DVD.

I'm sure you didn't mean "glut"
http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/glut

....unless you are being ironic.

per the thread topic... Isn't this just another too soon metric that really should be looked at in 6 months?

ted

plazman

01-31-07, 05:59 PM

Refresh my memory, how long did DIVX last in its war against DVD? Seriously folks, I think this format war will be over sooner rather than later.

For HD DVD to survive I think you need to have around $1B in software sales for 2007. I don't recall DiVx coming anywhere even close to $200M in software sales in a year!

So, what will it take to get to $1B - 40M disks at the rate of $25. To buy 40M disks you need 4M players where the avg. attachment rate for each player is 10 disks purchased in 2007. AFAIK. MSFT is putting out around 150K drives a month and Tosh another 100K players for a total of around 250K players a month (max). For 12 months, that works out to 3M units (from the big 2). So, in my books, it's not impossible, but going to be hard...I guess the Chinese can add another 1M units :)

The way I'm seeing it, HD DVD does not have the hardware capacity that BD has. Based on the sales figures, it's clear the HD DVD group recognized it and hence NOW I can see why they didn't make a deal about movie releases, but instead focused on hardware!!!! Makes perfect sense. I didn't check, but looks like a lot of the top titles were not even 50GB disks. And how come Taledega Nights is a top 5 title? Didn't it come for free?????

I love data!!!! A little real data goes a long long way :D

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 06:00 PM

Not long. Consumers looked at it and most thought it was the most ridiculous premise they had ever heard.

I think the war could be over "soon" as in late 2008. That's my definition of soon. If people think it'll be over in 2007 that's preposterous. This year is more jockeying for position and getting more players/media into homes. Consumer critical mass hasn't been reached by any stretch.

In this war though, consumer critical mass doesn't have to be reached. BD can achieve victory by Universal going neutral - that alone could end it. When their present best-selling titles are also titles that would appeal to the PS3 demographic, there may be a good bit of internal pressure for them to do so also.

plazman

01-31-07, 06:01 PM

hmurchison

01-31-07, 06:05 PM

In this war though, consumer critical mass doesn't have to be reached. BD can achieve victory by Universal going neutral - that alone could end it. When their present best-selling titles are also titles that would appeal to the PS3 demographic, there may be a good bit of internal pressure for them to do so also.

That's not going to happen. The same could be said for Fox/Disney/Columbia. There's no evidence to support the notion that Universal is feeling any internal pressure. This foray isn't a money making venture at this point. The studios are probably breaking even on most titles if not under water.

"Univerals is going neutral" is a Blu-ray yank fantasy. It's not going to happen in 2007. Just as HD DVD fans probably realize the BD exclusive studios are not coming across either.

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 06:09 PM

That's not going to happen. The same could be said for Fox/Disney/Columbia. There's no evidence to support the notion that Universal is feeling any internal pressure. This foray isn't a money making venture at this point. The studios are probably breaking even on most titles if not under water.

Hmmm... I'm not saying they will or they won't. But I *am* saying they might. It's a lot more likely than the converse, IMO. (Columbia going over especially is obviously a ridiculous notion, and in an entirely different league, being owned directly by Sony.)

"Univerals is going neutral" is a Blu-ray yank fantasy. It's not going to happen in 2007. Just as HD DVD fans probably realize the BD exclusive studios are not coming across either.

That was something that took CES 2007 for many an HD DVD fan to realize; no sooner. Again, Universal going neutral or not, I'm not speaking to... but I am simply saying that if they did, it'd be over right then and there.

Grubert

01-31-07, 06:11 PM

Gentlemen, please don't bring any aggression into this thread. Otherwise it might get locked and I honestly think it would be a shame.

*********

More information:

From an interview (http://www.allthingshidef.com/ME2/dirmod.asp?sid=&nm=&type=news&mod=News&mid=9A02E3B96F2A415ABC72CB5F516B4C10&tier=3&nid=15764EC170934109B6FA9BECC217722A) with Jim Bottoms, co-founder of research firm Understanding & Solutions:

* More than 70% of people buying a PS3 have a strong interest in acquiring movies for it.

* Until the PS3 was launched, software sales were probably three to one in HD DVD's favor.

* Once the PS3 came out, BD volume per title grew something like 700%.

Maxpower1987

01-31-07, 06:13 PM

That's not going to happen. The same could be said for Fox/Disney/Columbia. There's no evidence to support the notion that Universal is feeling any internal pressure. This foray isn't a money making venture at this point. The studios are probably breaking even on most titles if not under water.

"Univerals is going neutral" is a Blu-ray yank fantasy. It's not going to happen in 2007. Just as HD DVD fans probably realize the BD exclusive studios are not coming across either.

All it takes for Uni to go neutral is for GE (the parent company) to apply pressure on Universal officer Craig Kornblau, who has underperformed on a scale unimaginable to them 7 years ago when he was appointed head of the distribution arm. He is really the only person that is stopping Uni releasing on BD.

Halveb

01-31-07, 06:13 PM

Does anyone know if the bundled discs that come with either player(s) are included in the Video Scan numbers? If this is the case the PS3 number could be skewing the results of software sales as every PS3 purchased doesn't indicate a a continous movie buying fan.

If the Toshiba discs are included then their numbers would be skewed as well but not as bad since there is no HD DVD device that serves as a game player and movie player. One can then conclude that each HD DVD device purchased is done so with the express purpose of watching movies.

skogan

01-31-07, 06:14 PM

Good find Grubert. These numbers are pretty bad for HD DVD.

Sketcha

01-31-07, 06:15 PM

http://img19.imagevenue.com/loc161/th_83881_graphic_highres_122_161lo.jpg (http://img19.imagevenue.com/img.php?image=83881_graphic_highres_122_161lo.jpg)

According to Fox's prediction, we should be at less than 2:1 for Blu-ray:HD DVD. It appears they underestimated the adoption rate of PS3 owners.

Dang! Anyone remember how hard the HD DVD camp laughed at that graph?

I ASSumed it was just propoganda too, though I figured BD would be leading. Just not by more than double.

You know, it would be one thing if HD DVD had a pile of killer releases just around the corner and BD didn't. But let's be real; the opposite is true. The gap will just widen.

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 06:16 PM

Sketcha

01-31-07, 06:17 PM

Great.

So that means we'll be stuck with extra-less (or near extra-less) overpriced BD discs?

This still means nothing because the general public doesn't care.

If it's true that Netflix and BB are essentially waiting out this war, then the death of HD DVD will be a boon for those truly interested in watching movies in optical HD.

joshd2012

01-31-07, 06:18 PM

jmpage2

01-31-07, 06:25 PM

They are looking like geniuses, but they also show HD DVD sales declining and then being flat. Not sure if that is also the case. But who knows :eek:

Well, I'm forced to agree with your general assessment that as of now, we are pretty much screwed on the HD-DVD side.

Studios obviously didn't care to support HD-DVD further despite strong sales in 2006. They have decided to let the game console trump movie buffs in figuring this thing out.

Glad I'm only out $363 on my HD-A1 and the cost of software.

hmurchison

01-31-07, 06:26 PM

If it's true that Netflix and BB are essentially waiting out this war, then the death of HD DVD will be a boon for those truly interested in watching movies in optical HD.

Netflix is also throwing its hat into digital delivery of movies. I'm not sure they are waiting for either format do die but rather mitigating risk by diversifying their delivery of movies.

I'm seeing more data in this thread than what we usually get but It means little because the obvious holes are being filled in with presumptions .

Sony knows that their strategy for the PS3 regarding bunding the Blu-ray drive with the PS3 would be better than Microsofts add on strategy. Ask anyone who's done retail sales about how many people actually return to add on that warranty or add on piece for their purchase. Not many.

The HD DVD add on drive will sell well but Toshibas going to have to get dedicated player out in bunches. There's still too much time and too many things that need to play out before we have winner.

What we have right now are glorified DVD players with slightly better menus. I'm looking for a more complete system that only will come with the maturation of both formats.

Schlotkins

01-31-07, 06:27 PM

hmurchison

01-31-07, 06:27 PM

Well, I'm forced to agree with your general assessment that as of now, we are pretty much screwed on the HD-DVD side.

Studios obviously didn't care to support HD-DVD further despite strong sales in 2006. They have decided to let the game console trump movie buffs in figuring this thing out.

Glad I'm only out $363 on my HD-A1 and the cost of software.

Take a breath Jim. You're sounding defeatist. Everyone has their bad days but sometimes you just have to step back a bit. Churchill is Churchill because he didn't say "Well I guess Britain is finished" . Hang in there.

darinp2

01-31-07, 06:29 PM

"Univerals is going neutral" is a Blu-ray yank fantasy. It's not going to happen in 2007. Just as HD DVD fans probably realize the BD exclusive studios are not coming across either.Those numbers sure don't look like they are going to apply much pressure toward the Blu-ray exclusive studios. And these numbers don't even count Japan, where I think even HD DVD fans who are honest have to wonder how Toshiba could possibly get a win there.

--Darin

roma_victor

01-31-07, 06:29 PM

Sketcha

01-31-07, 06:30 PM

There's no evidence to support the notion that Universal is feeling any internal pressure.

Technically you are correct, of course.

However, if anyone in Universal can read, there is pressure.

It's one of those if, then kind of things. Remember Postulates in Geometry? You know, if it walks like a duck...

plazman

01-31-07, 06:30 PM

Dang! Anyone remember how hard the HD DVD camp laughed at that graph?

I ASSumed it was just propoganda too, though I figured BD would be leading. Just not by more than double.

You know, it would be one thing if HD DVD had a pile of killer releases just around the corner and BD didn't. But let's be real; the opposite is true. The gap will just widen.

True. That is what it would appear to be. However, 2 weeks is a short interval to conclude the outcome....but great news for BD.

Maxpower1987

01-31-07, 06:30 PM

Take a breath Jim. You're sounding defeatist. Everyone has their bad days but sometimes you just have to step back a bit. Churchill is Churchill because he didn't say "Well I guess Britain is finished" . Hang in there.

As an Englishman, I find it rather strange that you would quote Churchill in relation to this incredibly unimportant (yet very entertaining) part of life. Churchill quotes are best left for times when people/nations are in real dire straits IMO.

Sketcha

01-31-07, 06:33 PM

All it takes for Uni to go neutral is for GE (the parent company) to apply pressure on Universal officer Craig Kornblau, who has underperformed on a scale unimaginable to them 7 years ago when he was appointed head of the distribution arm. He is really the only person that is stopping Uni releasing on BD.

Interesting.

Harkens back to the ol' HD DVD axiom; "follow the money."

hmurchison

01-31-07, 06:35 PM

As an Englishman, I find it rather strange that you would quote Churchill in relation to this incredibly unimportant (yet very entertaining) part of life. Churchill quotes are best left for times when people/nations are in real dire straits IMO.

Importance is relative. The core issue is what Churchill stood for

"Never, never, never, never give up."
~ Winston Churchill

This is a mantra that needs to be applied in everything we do as people. It is the mantra of champions. Thank you for your concern however.

darinp2

01-31-07, 06:35 PM

For HD DVD to survive I think you need to have around $1B in software sales for 2007.I don't think they will or need to. DVD only sold something like 1 million DVD players in their 2nd year. I believe that the HD DVD groups estimate of $600 million in software is way high, but if they did hit it I think they would be in very good shape for at least a tie.
The HD DVD add on drive will sell well but Toshibas going to have to get dedicated player out in bunches.I hear things about the HD DVD add-on selling well and the PS3 selling poorly, but the Amazon numbers for the dedicated remote for the PS3 and the add-on don't look good for HD DVD to me. They have both pretty much been in stock over the last 2-3 weeks, with the PS3 remote generally ranked in the top 20 under video games (even outselling the $399 XBOX360 a lot of the time) while the add-on has been around the 70s. I just checked and the PS3 remote is #17, while the add-on is #101.

--Darin

Mark0

01-31-07, 06:36 PM

I'd rather have overpriced BD disc than the even more expensive HD-DVD combo's.

Unless you fork for Fox, there is no reason to want to pay more for a disk than you should. At least with the combo disk, one actually gets more.

No wonder you support Blu-ray and I support HD DVD.

Also why I believe HD DVD will win the war. While a good chunk of Americans think if something costs more, it must be better, the vast majority appreciate "value".

jim_r

01-31-07, 06:38 PM

Do people remember when HD-DVD folks were saying it was over when it was 3:1 in their favor? I think it's way too early to declare a winner here. Personally, I still don't think they will be a winner, but that's just me. Universal is dropping a lot of titles I want this year so I'm guessing I'll have a lot on either format and some big titles from Warner may be HD-DVD only as BD-J gets up to speed.

Just remember - how many total discs do you think were sold if BR can make up 7% over time in one week? These formats are still very much a drop in the bucket.

I agree with that. Some of you guys are really jumping the gun with your analysis. A one month surge due to the PS3 launch does not automatically translate into a long term trend. The PS3 is new and BD is new. They are like a new toy. Once the initial fascination wears off, things will slow down with the PS3 crowd. It's just like when people got their first DVD player. They went out and bought a bunch of DVD's, but most did not continue that for the long term. It is also not clear exactly what these Nielson numbers include. Do they include non-US purchases and internet purchases? Either way, it's way too early to come to any conclusions about the format war. Of course, that won't stop anyone around here from doing that.

b2bonez

01-31-07, 06:39 PM

Data from article.. see attached..

b2b

jmpage2

01-31-07, 06:41 PM

Take a breath Jim. You're sounding defeatist. Everyone has their bad days but sometimes you just have to step back a bit. Churchill is Churchill because he didn't say "Well I guess Britain is finished" . Hang in there.

Well, it's extremely frustrating to see studios sit on the sidelines when they have hd-dvd releases in the can.

Pent up frustration is evident when you see the first decent new release in months shoot to the top 100 of the Amazon charts and best the position of the #1 BR release.

The real concern that I have is that studios are intentionally starving HD-DVD content over the next several months to see if they can kill HD-DVD off that way.

I'd love to see what Amir has to say about this, backed by some facts, not the same "just hang in there" we've been hearing for weeks now.

plazman

01-31-07, 06:42 PM

I don't think they will or need to. DVD only sold something like 1 million DVD players in their 2nd year. I believe that the HD DVD groups estimate of $600 million in software is way high, but if they did hit it I think they would be in very good shape for at least a tie.
I hear things about the HD DVD add-on selling well and the PS3 selling poorly, but the Amazon numbers for the dedicated remote for the PS3 and the add-on don't look good for HD DVD to me. They have both pretty much been in stock over the last 2-3 weeks, with the PS3 remote generally ranked in the top 20 under video games (even outselling the $399 XBOX360 a lot of the time) while the add-on has been around the 70s. I just checked and the PS3 remote is #17, while the add-on is #101.

--Darin

I am afraid, the add on isn't selling well at all. xbox owners have lots of new games plus xbox live with HD downloads to keep them entertained!

To me it appears a PS3 owner cares a lot more about BD movies than an xbox owner cares about watching HD DVD movies. In fact I can go so far as to say a majority of PS3 owners probably care more about the movie aspect of the player than the gaming...

Now, the only part that HD DVD can take solace in is that the PS3 is highly subsidized, and if you think back to the cold war, there was a period when it seemed the Soviets were ahead. But the economics in long term wasn't on their side....

egcarter

01-31-07, 06:43 PM

Caveat Emptor...Nielsen Videoscan's data is, of course, from a sample of outlets (largely brick-and-mortar...big box, some specialty retailers, etc.) They do poll a few internet sites (maybe DVD Empire?), but they don't get figures from Amazon and some other prominent outlets. It's sort of like Nielsen TV ratings. They use 415 families that are metered...they sample other folks around the country via phone, etc. Then they use statistical algorithms to extrapolate the ratings for the entire populace.

We still don't have hard and comprehensive sales data on any of this stuff. Naturally HD format sales will be driven by new releases. A big movie will skew numbers...

Eric

hmurchison

01-31-07, 06:44 PM

Well, it's extremely frustrating to see studios sit on the sidelines when they have hd-dvd releases in the can.

I'd love to see what Amir has to say about this, backed by some facts, not the same "just hang in there" we've been hearing for weeks now.

Agreed. I'd like to know a bit more info about what's taking so long. Is it the Combo issue or are there plans for more interactivity or the enabling of network features. I see many of us here just throwing our hands up and going neutral. I don't blame them honestly. None of us wanted this war.

Maxpower1987

01-31-07, 06:45 PM

Now, the only part that HD DVD can take solace in is that the PS3 is highly subsidized, and if you think back to the cold war, there was a period when it seemed the Soviets were ahead. But the economics in long term wasn't on their side....

Ahh communism; plaz, as you well know the economic principles behind communism are fatally flawed, the question is, is Sony's outlook flawed, IMO it is not.

Sketcha

01-31-07, 06:47 PM

Netflix is also throwing its hat into digital delivery of movies. I'm not sure they are waiting for either format do die but rather mitigating risk by diversifying their delivery of movies.

I'm seeing more data in this thread than what we usually get but It means little because the obvious holes are being filled in with presumptions .

Sony knows that their strategy for the PS3 regarding bunding the Blu-ray drive with the PS3 would be better than Microsofts add on strategy. Ask anyone who's done retail sales about how many people actually return to add on that warranty or add on piece for their purchase. Not many.

The HD DVD add on drive will sell well but Toshibas going to have to get dedicated player out in bunches. There's still too much time and too many things that need to play out before we have winner.

What we have right now are glorified DVD players with slightly better menus. I'm looking for a more complete system that only will come with the maturation of both formats.

Granted. Obviously Toshibas are still being produced as well as HD DVD discs. They may be all year. But there comes a point where a winner in a race becomes predictible. Other than NBC's call in 2000, scores of presidential races have been correctly called LONG before the counting is done.

Maxpower1987

01-31-07, 06:48 PM

Granted. Obviously Toshibas are still being produced as well as HD DVD discs. They may be all year. But there comes a point where a winner in a race becomes predictible. Other than NBC's call in 2000, scores of presidential races have been correctly called LONG before the counting is done.

One could say it was Fox that had it wrong ;).

Schlotkins

01-31-07, 06:50 PM

Sketcha

01-31-07, 06:50 PM

As an Englishman, I find it rather strange that you would quote Churchill in relation to this incredibly unimportant (yet very entertaining) part of life. Churchill quotes are best left for times when people/nations are in real dire straits IMO.

As an American, I was thinking the same thing.

"THIS... is our finest hour!" ;)

briankmonkey

01-31-07, 06:53 PM

jmpage2

01-31-07, 06:53 PM

I am afraid, the add on isn't selling well at all. xbox owners have lots of new games plus xbox live with HD downloads to keep them entertained!

To me it appears a PS3 owner cares a lot more about BD movies than an xbox owner cares about watching HD DVD movies. In fact I can go so far as to say a majority of PS3 owners probably care more about the movie aspect of the player than the gaming...

Now, the only part that HD DVD can take solace in is that the PS3 is highly subsidized, and if you think back to the cold war, there was a period when it seemed the Soviets were ahead. But the economics in long term wasn't on their side....

Actually there are pretty good indications that the Xbox 360 add-on has been selling quite well. It seemed to be supply constrained up until just the last couple of weeks when they now seem to be in pretty good supply at most places. I believe it was in the top 20 gaming products at Amazon and a few other sites for quite a few weeks.

I personally know several people who have bought the add on and raved about the PQ of King Kong, but they are also very frustrated right now by the slim pickings of HD-DVD titles. Even 20 releases each by Warner, Universal and Paramount could help turn the tide, but for some reason unknown by us mere mortals they have chosen to sit on their thumbs and leave us hanging.

There's definitely something going on beyond the BS "the compressionists are all coming back from holiday vacation" or "we are waiting for BDJ to get fixed" going on. If you think you can ship 100K discs and make $2M you do it, you don't "hold off" unless you have a damn good reason for doing so.

Maybe they are all waiting to see how THD goes for Warner.

skogan

01-31-07, 06:55 PM

I am afraid, the add on isn't selling well at all. xbox owners have lots of new games plus xbox live with HD downloads to keep them entertained!

To me it appears a PS3 owner cares a lot more about BD movies than an xbox owner cares about watching HD DVD movies. In fact I can go so far as to say a majority of PS3 owners probably care more about the movie aspect of the player than the gaming...

Now, the only part that HD DVD can take solace in is that the PS3 is highly subsidized, and if you think back to the cold war, there was a period when it seemed the Soviets were ahead. But the economics in long term wasn't on their side....

There is much to be disagreed with in this post. I'm not sure how many add-on sells you predicted, so I guess you can claim it's not selling well without any supporting data, by claiming you thought it would sell better. But the figures I've seen suggest it sold better than any HD DVD player, and better than any BD player except the PS3.

Further, I don't think you can defend the statement, " a majority of PS3 owners probably care more about the movie aspect of the player than the gaming..." While there are certainly some using it as a player, (which due to the lack of compelling gaming titles is a good thing), I think you've gone a bit overboard in your hyperbole. Most PS3 owners are gamers, and I would be shocked if the movie content is selling nearly as well as the gaming content for it. In fact, RFOM probably sold more than the top 5 BD titles combined.

roma_victor

01-31-07, 06:55 PM

In fact I can go so far as to say a majority of PS3 owners probably care more about the movie aspect of the player than the gaming...

??????

plazman

01-31-07, 06:58 PM

PauloB

01-31-07, 07:00 PM

Are the numbers really that surprising?

HD-DVD released very little, week end Jan 7 and Jan 14. Let's be honest, the people buying HD are probably buying BOTH at this stage because they are movie geeks and don't want to miss any movies on either format.

Sketcha

01-31-07, 07:00 PM

Ahh communism; plaz, as you well know the economic principles behind communism are fatally flawed, the question is, is Sony's outlook flawed, IMO it is not.

Yeah, I was kind of surprised to hear this one out of plaz.

Obviously the PS3 is a trojan horse. Normally consoles aren't money makers, the software is. In this case there are 2, major types of software that Sony has a huge hand in.

I would say their long term outlook is pretty rosy.

Azumi

01-31-07, 07:06 PM

I am afraid, the add on isn't selling well at all. xbox owners have lots of new games plus xbox live with HD downloads to keep them entertained!

To me it appears a PS3 owner cares a lot more about BD movies than an xbox owner cares about watching HD DVD movies. In fact I can go so far as to say a majority of PS3 owners probably care more about the movie aspect of the player than the gaming...

I'd venture to say that the HD-DVD add-on has never been a key financial motivation for Microsoft.

When they announced their HD-DVD support, the Xbox 360 was already being manufactured. And the add-on plug-in 12 months later looks like a compromise to give some leverage to Toshiba, and at the same time without changing the form factor of the X360 and possibly alienating the early adopters.

As Amir has stated, VC-1 and downloadable content for XBL are the two key areas that Microsoft is targeting for long-term growth. I may be wrong, but I think that the add-on doesn't really fit in the Xbox 360 business plan, and it was released only because they had to.

On a side note, I think that all those Uni announcements last week weren't that innocent. They were certainly aware of these figures and they basically did some damage control.

plazman

01-31-07, 07:07 PM

There is much to be disagreed with in this post. I'm not sure how many add-on sells you predicted, so I guess you can claim it's not selling well without any supporting data, by claiming you thought it would sell better. But the figures I've seen suggest it sold better than any HD DVD player, and better than any BD player except the PS3.

Further, I don't think you can defend the statement, " a majority of PS3 owners probably care more about the movie aspect of the player than the gaming..." While there are certainly some using it as a player, (which due to the lack of compelling gaming titles is a good thing), I think you've gone a bit overboard in your hyperbole. Most PS3 owners are gamers, and I would be shocked if the movie content is selling nearly as well as the gaming content for it. In fact, RFOM probably sold more than the top 5 BD titles combined.

Then if you go back to the same Home Media Magazine you'll see that none of the top 5 games sold were PS3 games. The top 4 were xbox 360.

I do apologize. I did not mean, the HD Drive isn't selling well. I should have clarified that I meant it wasn't selling as well the PS3 (which isn't a surprise). Also, it isn't a negative for the xbox, since it IS sold primarily as a game console and only a very small minority have bought the add on drive.

Also, it does appear that many people have indeed bought the PS3 for movies. Look at the sales rank of the remote control. It outsells the wireless controller and most games. At this is just a few months after launch. So, to infer that the PS3 is being viewed and seen as a serious BD video device is not a hyperbole at all! Even Sound and Vision in their latest edition has the PS3 on the cover as the best BD player!!!

Overall, I guess I still stand by my assertion that the xbox add on drive cannot match the impact of the PS3 in the format battle. At least not yet.

I am not making a judgment on Sonys' business model either. That's another topic :)

darinp2

01-31-07, 07:08 PM

Actually there are pretty good indications that the Xbox 360 add-on has been selling quite well. It seemed to be supply constrained up until just the last couple of weeks when they now seem to be in pretty good supply at most places. I believe it was in the top 20 gaming products at Amazon and a few other sites for quite a few weeks.I don't remember where it was last year other than I think it shot way up as soon as it became available. I've been following it on Amazon since a few days into January. It has pretty much been in stock (I don't recall if it went out of stock one time I checked or not) and I don't recall seeing it above #50 at any time this month. In the Seattle area it seemed like it was selling extremely well when I was checking around at stores before Christmas, but I haven't looked as much since then (although I've seen them in stock at Fred Meyers and Walmart).

As far as how the PS3 and XBOX360 add-on would affect software sales, I thought this old prediction by rdjam from last October was interesting:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8682019&&#post8682019
I think 10% of PS3 buyers will regularly watch BD movies - at most.

30% or more of xbox users will buy HD DVD playerIt looks like the original that was referenced was removed though (probably when DrDon cleaned the thread up).

--Darin

Azumi

01-31-07, 07:10 PM

I believe Neilson includes around 65% of DVD sales outlet. I believe Amazon and Walmart are not included. But it is much more representative than any single source.

I'm unable to tell you where I read it, but I did read that Nielsen extrapolates Wal-mart and Amazon results, and these figures are added to their data. And given Nielsen's longstanding reputation, they shouldn't be far off from the truth.

plazman

01-31-07, 07:10 PM

??????

When the remote control sells more than most games and game related controllers, that would be one inference, no?

yoyoniner

01-31-07, 07:11 PM

Importance is relative. The core issue is what Churchill stood for

"Never, never, never, never give up."
~ Winston Churchill

This is a mantra that needs to be applied in everything we do as people. It is the mantra of champions. Thank you for your concern however.

I think saying things like this should be reserved for people who actually work for Sony or Toshiba. Don't you think?

We don't. We are just movie lovers and most of us just want the war to be over quickly. And most of us actually have a life I would assume, and when we are eating dinner with our father or seeing our niece walk for the first time or giving a hug to our fiance, we all realize that allegiance to a brand of "high definition movie disc" is meaningless. The reason I always supported Blu-ray is because I always thought it had the easiest chance of winning (just Universal going neutral) so the war would be over and we could get on with discussing movies and off this ridiculous talk of "allegiances" and phrases like "hang in there." I mean that's the kind of thing you tell someone when they find out their mother has breast cancer. Wouldn't you agree the word "defeatist" should not apply to someone who no longer cares about supporting only one brand of something at any cost? I don't get why someone would be "giving up" if they went brand neutral and just decided to buy more movies.

This goes not just for you but for all of us. The arguments were fun, but I think we ALL need some healthy perspective.

plazman

01-31-07, 07:12 PM

I'm unable to tell you where I read it, but I did read that Nielsen extrapolates Wal-mart and Amazon results, and these figures are added to their data. And given Nielsen's longstanding reputation, they shouldn't be far off from the truth.

It's hard to extrapolate when there isn't enough history or data to do so. JMHO. But still, the overall reliability of Videoscan is undiminished. I believe them when they said 250M Americans watched the Super Bowl after sampling a few thousand households :)

Andrew P

01-31-07, 07:15 PM

Schlotkins

01-31-07, 07:16 PM

I think this is the important question going forward for the PS3:

Will the PS3 continue to enjoy this high of an attachment rate or will it drop off considerable when games people want to play are announced? There's two things you could argue:

1) A lot of blu-ray supporters waited for the PS3 to buy a Blu-ray player.
2) A lot of people bought the PS3 for gaming, but now that there aren't that many top shelves games, are buying movies instead.

I think both of these are very important issues. It's clear to me right now that a lot of people are using the ps3 simply for movies. In fact, as others have said, it may even be arguable whether more people are using it for movies or games. I don't think that kind of sales ratio will happen going forward. Hence, the question is will the trend say intacted or level off.

I suspect we won't get a better answer until sometime in April/May. At that point, it will be interesting to make comparisons due to the length of timt the PS3 has been out and an increase in HD-DVD software. We shall see.

Fortunately, I'll be format neutral by they and will have some of the pressure off of me. I really just want great content so I'll go with the flow.

Chris

jmpage2

01-31-07, 07:16 PM

I think saying things like this should be reserved for people who actually work for Sony or Toshiba. Don't you think?

We don't. We are just movie lovers and most of us just want the war to be over quickly. And most of us actually have a life I would assume, and when we are eating dinner with our father or seeing our niece walk for the first time or giving a hug to our fiance, we all realize that allegiance to a brand of "high definition movie disc" is meaningless. The reason I always supported Blu-ray is because I always thought it had the easiest chance of winning (just Universal going neutral) so the war would be over and we could get on with discussing movies and off this ridiculous talk of "allegiances" and phrases like "hang in there." I mean that's the kind of thing you tell someone when they find out their mother has breast cancer. Wouldn't you agree the word "defeatist" should not apply to someone who no longer cares about supporting only one brand at any cost? I don't get why someone be "giving up" if they went brand neutral and just decided to buy more movies.

This goes not just for you but for all of us. The arguments were fun, but I think we need some healthy perspective.

For a guy who regularly incites flame wars and posts completely made up nonsense, it's rather hysterical seeing this come from you.

In fact, I laughed so hard when I read your heartfelt "note" that beer shot out of my nose.

If you really cared about movies, you'd go watch some and stop baiting HD-DVD owners.

Sketcha

01-31-07, 07:18 PM

When the remote control sells more than most games and game related controllers, that would be one inference, no?

Yes

yoyoniner

01-31-07, 07:19 PM

Sketcha

01-31-07, 07:21 PM

yoyoniner

01-31-07, 07:22 PM

Nice post

Thanks Sketcha.

joshd2012

01-31-07, 07:22 PM

I have not spent much time following this thread, but who has sold more discs to date? I would expect HD DVD, but if BD is ahead here too then that would be a telling sign.

The first post has SI (or Since Inception) numbers. HD DVD has the lead, but that is rapidly being closed upon.

Scoob

01-31-07, 07:23 PM

Indeed this is great for BD and the future of the format. But I think it is very premature to say HD DVD is dead. I think in a year from now we will know exactly what is going to happen. I don't think HD DVD could ever win this format war outright. But my money is still on co-existence.

Sketcha

01-31-07, 07:26 PM

2 weeks is a short interval especially since HD DVD has released very few movies and BD has done a great job in this regard. It is clear the BD has outsold HD DVD since January 1 based on this data.

I have not spent much time following this thread, but who has sold more discs to date? I would expect HD DVD, but if BD is ahead here too then that would be a telling sign.

You didn't need to follow the thread, just the original post.

Over 2 weeks ago, BD had sold 92.4% as many discs as HD DVD since inception of each.

It's not hard to extrapolate that BD could have surpassed HD DVD by now.

dialog_gvf

01-31-07, 07:28 PM

I have not spent much time following this thread, but who has sold more discs to date? I would expect HD DVD, but if BD is ahead here too then that would be a telling sign.

The SI numbers in the first post represent total sales "Since Inception" of the formats.

Week ended Jan 7
SI: BD 85.05, HD 100.00

Week ended Jan 14
SI: BD 92.40, HD 100.00

So, in one WEEK, BD went from 85% of HD DVD total sales to 92.4%. If the trend continued, BD is now ahead of HD DVD in total disc sales.

Gary

Sketcha

01-31-07, 07:28 PM

plazman

01-31-07, 07:29 PM

Yeah, I was kind of surprised to hear this one out of plaz.

Obviously the PS3 is a trojan horse. Normally consoles aren't money makers, the software is. In this case there are 2, major types of software that Sony has a huge hand in.

I would say their long term outlook is pretty rosy.

My point is that you gotta have a business model that works:

1. IF PS3 is a game console then you need to make money by selling games. So far, it does not seem Sony is really doing that.

2. IF the PS3 is a video player then Sony needs to make money off of the hardware, since the margin on BD movies are probably very slim - if any at all.

3. IF it is both. Then the subsidy on the player needs to be smaller than a game only device since it is expected that x% of consoles will be used primarily as a video player and hence will have a lower game attachment rate.

4. IF Sony is able to subsidize a game console as a video player since their margin on movies is high. Then it is total craziness for any hardware vendor to sign up for BD! How do they make money??

5. IF you are a movie studio and you know that the primary hardware is a subsizied player where the vendor is hoping to make money out of royalties, what does it do from a pricing perspective? Games cost $60, will movie prices also approach that?

I am not sure how things are rosier with BD for Sony? Price competition is going to get more aggressive, not less. Would people buy BD movies IF they cost 2x and HD DVD one? We already know people won't buy players that cost 2x as much....so where is the money (profits going to come from?) Will Sony continue to subsidize hardware and software until HD DVD goes away? Will HD DVD go away, if they are aware of this achilles heel?

I guess we haven't seen the end of the game yet. Let's see how the next Q turns out for Sony. No holiday buying, no yen depreciation, with 4x as many PS3 consoles....If they show profit growth and cut losses in their game division, I'll admit it's all rosey for sony :D

skogan

01-31-07, 07:29 PM

Then if you go back to the same Home Media Magazine you'll see that none of the top 5 games sold were PS3 games. The top 4 were xbox 360.

Yes, of course, but what does that have to do with anything? The 360 has 6x install base over the PS3, of course they would sell more games than the PS3 at this point in time.

Let me ask you for a wild guess. What percentage of PS3 owners do you believe have bought one or more games? I would say nearly 100%.

Now what percentage do you think have bought a movie? What ever that number is, it is well less than 100%, wouldn't you agree?

That surely indicates that more PS3 owners consider their box a game console first, and a movie player second, at least to me.

...
Also, it does appear that many people have indeed bought the PS3 for movies. Look at the sales rank of the remote control. It outsells the wireless controller and most games. At this is just a few months after launch. So, to infer that the PS3 is being viewed and seen as a serious BD video device is not a hyperbole at all! Even Sound and Vision in their latest edition has the PS3 on the cover as the best BD player!!!

Overall, I guess I still stand by my assertion that the xbox add on drive cannot match the impact of the PS3 in the format battle. At least not yet.

I am not making a judgment on Sonys' business model either. That's another topic :)

It's far different to say that the PS3 is being bought for movies, then to say that more PS3 owners consider it primarily a movie player than a game player. You went further than just to "infer that the PS3 is being viewed and seen as a serious BD video device". If that was all you had said, I could have agreed with you. The hyperbole was when you went the extra step and declared that the majority of PS3 owners viewed it as movie player first and a game machine second. That is what I disagreed with.

JBCricket

01-31-07, 07:31 PM

What would happen if Microsoft started building Xbox 360 with the HD-DVD drive built in and kept the retail price the same as it is today?

Andrew P

01-31-07, 07:32 PM

You didn't need to follow the thread, just the original post.

Over 2 weeks ago, BD had sold 92.4% as many discs as HD DVD since inception of each.

It's not hard to extrapolate that BD could have surpassed HD DVD by now.

Thanks for the info. I look forward to next weeks numbers to see if BD has indeed surpassed HD DVD since inception. The next statistic I would like to see is numbers of movies sold. This will be the true test. I imagine it is very low for both formats.

skogan

01-31-07, 07:33 PM

2. IF the PS3 is a video player then Sony needs to make money off of the hardware, since the margin on BD movies are probably very slim - if any at all.
[/B] :D

Even on slim margins, the volume makes up for it. This whole format wars isn't about who gets to manufacture the hardware. It's about who gets to collect the royalty checks. Sony doesn't need to make money off the PS3 as a video player, they only need to make sure that BD becomes the standard. After that point, it doesn't matter who makes the products, they'll get their checks through the IP.

Sketcha

01-31-07, 07:33 PM

For a guy who regularly incites flame wars and posts completely made up nonsense, it's rather hysterical seeing this come from you.

In fact, I laughed so hard when I read your heartfelt "note" that beer shot out of my nose.

If you really cared about movies, you'd go watch some and stop baiting HD-DVD owners.

I think he is expressing a battle weary sentiment that many of us are feeling. Of course it's easy to do when your team appears to be winning, but I believe it is no less genuine.

As sappy as this sounds, this war has taken it's toll. When it's over, regardless of who wins, healing will be required so we can all move on and discuss our love for the hobby.

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 07:34 PM

Let me ask you for a wild guess. What percentage of PS3 owners do you believe have bought one or more games? I would say nearly 100%.

Now what percentage do you think have bought a movie? What ever that number is, it is well less than 100%, wouldn't you agree?

That surely indicates that more PS3 owners consider their box a game console first, and a movie player second, at least to me.

Not so fast though. Although the percentage who own a game may indeed by higher than the percentage that own a movie, I'd say that among those that own BD films, they've bought many more movies for the system thus far than they have games. Myself - 2 games, 13 movies.

I think the PS3 has sold more films than games by far up until now, among those that bought it for movies alone and gamers both.

HomerJay

01-31-07, 07:37 PM

I don't share the pain. There have been more new releases coming from the Blu-ray camp. Many HD DVD owners are sitting on their wallets waiting for a release that's worthy of a purchase.

This is further borne out by the fact that The Departed sold so well on both platforms but particularly well on HD DVD despite the price premium and lack of lossless audio. Once Universal/Paramount/Warner get off their arses and drop a few good titles we'll see the numbers improve.Isn't that the truth!! And once they're on a roll...watch those scales tip to the breaking point... ;)

plazman

01-31-07, 07:38 PM

Even on slim margins, the volume makes up for it. This whole format wars isn't about who gets to manufacture the hardware. It's about who gets to collect the royalty checks. Sony doesn't need to make money off the PS3 as a video player, they only need to make sure that BD becomes the standard. After that point, it doesn't matter who makes the products, they'll get their checks through the IP.

We'll see :D

neomoz

01-31-07, 07:43 PM

What would happen if Microsoft started building Xbox 360 with the HD-DVD drive built in and kept the retail price the same as it is today?
Somehow i don't see that happening, if ms have room to move on the 360 price, they're better off just dropping it to further gain more market share in the console race. MS have lost around 5-6 billion in the console race already, their goal is to win that war, while sony is chasing bluray, this is their best opportunity ever.

In actually fact i get the feeling ms are just keeping hd-dvd alive just to cause sony grief with bluray so their focus and ability to execute well in the console arena is impaired.

MS have way more to gain with 360 being console market leader than hd-dvd. Also I get the feeling ms want to chase things like IPTV and downloadable movies. Entertainment is moving to a more online focused thing, so who wins this format war might just end up being a short lived victory.

darinp2

01-31-07, 07:44 PM

I guess we haven't seen the end of the game yet.I believe the VHS vs Betamax war lasted something like 8 years. Hopefully we don't have to wait that long, but I agree we haven't seen the end of the game yet.
Week ended Jan 14
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 38.36

Week ended Jan 7
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 47.14I know we've talked about these numbers not really matching with the ones on thedvdwars.com and hdgamedb.com which show Amazon rankings, but I thought it would be interesting to actually look at the graph for the last 30 days for the average ranking of the top 10 titles on each format.

Here it is:

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/graphs/salesrank-1-1-recent30.jpgWhat we should be able to see (at least until it updates and the data moves off the graph to the left) is that for the week ending January 7th, the Amazon rankings had HD DVD ahead the whole time with an average of about 750 for HD DVD to about 1050-1100 for Blu-ray. That is when it was over 2:1 for Blu-ray by the Nielsen numbers. For the week ending January 14th, the Amazon rankings have HD DVD ahead the whole time, but it is close.

Taking the Neilsen numbers and just taking a guess that the same number of Blu-ray titles sold in each week to see what that would result in, we can say that for every Blu-ray title sold in the week ending January 7th, HD DVD sold .4714 titles. If Blu-ray sold the same number the next week, then HD DVD would be at to .7652 for every 2 BDs sold. Subtracting (.7652 - .4714) results in .2938. Or 100.00 to 29.38 for the week ending on January 14th (of course without 4 digits of accuracy). But, it does look like Blu-ray sold 3:1 against HD DVD for the week ending on the 14th according the the Nielsen numbers, despite the Amazon numbers showing HD DVD in the lead for the average top 10 ranking that week. Now that the Amazon numbers show Blu-ray in the lead for the top 10 average, I wonder what the Nielsen numbers will look like next time.

--Darin

skogan

01-31-07, 07:47 PM

Not so fast though. Although the percentage who own a game may indeed by higher than the percentage that own a movie, I'd say that among those that own BD films, they've bought many more movies for the system thus far than they have games. Myself - 2 games, 13 movies.

I think the PS3 has sold more films than games by far up until now, among those that bought it for movies alone and gamers both.

That would be a relevent point if the question were "does the PS3 have a bigger effect on gaming or movies?" But that wasn't the question.

He made the statement that a greater number of PS3 owners thought of the PS3 as a movie player first and a game console second. The people who bought it for movies may well have bought more movies than the people who bought it for games did games, but that is irrelevent. The gross number of people who bought it primarily as a movies player vs. the number who bought it primarily as a game console is all that matters, for this conversation. Even if the gamers were casual buyers, while the movie watchers were intense buyers, it wouldn't matter.

I know I didn't do a good job of explaining that, but hopefully you can see what I mean. For the purposes of this discussion, it wouldn't matter how many movies you bought. You are either a person who sees the PS3 as primarily a game machine, or a person who see it as primarily a movie machine.

Shug7272

01-31-07, 07:54 PM

I dont know what everyone expected. Sony has been a market leader in electronics longer than MS has been in buisness. They know what they are doing. If you made the mistake of taking "some guy" on this message boards words of wisdom as scripture then you will be made a fool. If a regular here knew better what to do than Sony, they would likely be spending far less time here and more running a company like Sony. Like them or hate them, Sony knows what they are doing. I just wish HD DVD would throw in the towel and let me have all the movies on my PS3. Between Resistance online and Blu Ray movies the Playstation 3 is already worth the purchase price. If you think Sony cares if you play movies or games on their system your nuts, either way they will be making money off Blu Ray disc sales, royalties etc. Some people just dont know when to quit.

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 07:56 PM

...

Ok gotcha, agreed. :)

skogan

01-31-07, 07:56 PM

I think the PS3 has sold more films than games by far up until now, among those that bought it for movies alone and gamers both.

Also, I think I disagree with this as well, as a factual matter. (I'm not certain though)

As a wild guess, I'm going to say that the PS3 has a 2 game attach rate at this point. If so, it would have sold roughly 3- 4 million games. Do you believe there have been more than 3 million BD sells since November? I would want to see that. To be honest, I don't know what the gross sales numbers are like, but I would like to see if that is true.

D-Nice

01-31-07, 07:59 PM

Wait a minute. YTD means 2007 not 2006 thru 2007 right? IF YTD means 2007 (which it should) why wouldn't BD be ahead in sales? What was the ratio of movie releases this month?

plazman

01-31-07, 08:00 PM

briankmonkey

01-31-07, 08:04 PM

Azumi

01-31-07, 08:04 PM

What would happen if Microsoft started building Xbox 360 with the HD-DVD drive built in and kept the retail price the same as it is today?

They will manage to piss off the 10M people who paid good money for a console that doesn't have this feature. :)

Moreover, a built-in HD-DVD drive would greatly increase the negative cost of the machine for practically no returns, as their videogames cannot be released on HD-DVD discs -- unless they want to trash their architecture and start from scratch.

jmpage2

01-31-07, 08:06 PM

Let's see when Sony can make some money off this. Also, I'm hoping Home Media Magazine continues to put out Videoscan sales data so we can track the progress. Right now, this data shows huge momentum for BD.

Press release from BDA about this soon?

It really doesn't matter. Sony is in this for the long haul and the absolute rosiest predictions are that they won't make money on PS3 until 2010. Believe me, they are more than happy to hemhorage cash until that time because if they win it means billions over the next 15 years as the dominant optical storage medium used in everything from PCs to game consoles all of which they get a royalty for.

Sketcha

01-31-07, 08:10 PM

My point is that you gotta have a business model that works:

1. IF PS3 is a game console then you need to make money by selling games. So far, it does not seem Sony is really doing that.

2. IF the PS3 is a video player then Sony needs to make money off of the hardware, since the margin on BD movies are probably very slim - if any at all.

3. IF it is both. Then the subsidy on the player needs to be smaller than a game only device since it is expected that x% of consoles will be used primarily as a video player and hence will have a lower game attachment rate.

4. IF Sony is able to subsidize a game console as a video player since their margin on movies is high. Then it is total craziness for any hardware vendor to sign up for BD! How do they make money??

5. IF you are a movie studio and you know that the primary hardware is a subsizied player where the vendor is hoping to make money out of royalties, what does it do from a pricing perspective? Games cost $60, will movie prices also approach that?

I am not sure how things are rosier with BD for Sony? Price competition is going to get more aggressive, not less. Would people buy BD movies IF they cost 2x and HD DVD one? We already know people won't buy players that cost 2x as much....so where is the money (profits going to come from?) Will Sony continue to subsidize hardware and software until HD DVD goes away? Will HD DVD go away, if they are aware of this achilles heel?

I guess we haven't seen the end of the game yet. Let's see how the next Q turns out for Sony. No holiday buying, no yen depreciation, with 4x as many PS3 consoles....If they show profit growth and cut losses in their game division, I'll admit it's all rosey for sony :D

Neither of us are Sony execs. with access to real numbers and their plan for profitability. I suspect the long term outlook for BD is good enough for them to subsidize the PS3 in order to win this war, otherwise they would not have likely gone down that road. No multi billion dollar company aims to lose money just for spite. Not even Sony. :D

jmpage2

01-31-07, 08:11 PM

excellent post

And Toshiba has been in the electronics business for how long? Am I confused or did Toshiba not have something to do with the creation of the DVD standard.

Insisting that Sony will somehow win automatically because of their CE legacy is basically a jab that Toshiba doesn't know jack about the CE business.

Is that the premise? I have a feeling that Toshiba wouldn't gamble billions of Yen on something that had a high percentage chance of failure.

Toshiba's best option at this point is getting the lowest cost HD decks out possible and trying to achieve format neutrality with solutions like Warner THD.

Mark0

01-31-07, 08:11 PM

Sketcha

01-31-07, 08:12 PM

Azumi

01-31-07, 08:14 PM

Let's see when Sony can make some money off this. Also, I'm hoping Home Media Magazine continues to put out Videoscan sales data so we can track the progress. Right now, this data shows huge momentum for BD.

Press release from BDA about this soon?

If I were them, I'd keep a low profile and start gloating only after Casino Royale is out. There are times where it pays off to be modest :)

Sketcha

01-31-07, 08:14 PM

Sketcha

01-31-07, 08:15 PM

We'll see :D

So you're saying if Sony wins this format war, they're going to bankrupt from subsidizing the PS3?

Kosty

01-31-07, 08:15 PM

Lot of chickens being counted here.

The PS3 has just had its Xmas sales surge, HD A2s are just hitting the streets, ,there been a dearth of HD DVD releases, HD DVD PRG and Toshiba are just starting promotion and advertising and will don't know long term PS3 attach rates will sustain.

The trend is good for Blu-ray here in January sales , but its just been a short term phenomena.

SteroMAdMAn

01-31-07, 08:15 PM

I'm crying on the inside

blueenergy

01-31-07, 08:16 PM

They will manage to piss off the 10M people who paid good money for a console that doesn't have this feature. :) Actually that is available to all 10 millions users today that want that option through the add-on.

Moreover, a built-in HD-DVD drive would greatly increase the negative cost of the machine for practically no returns, as their videogames cannot be released on HD-DVD discs -- unless they want to trash their architecture and start from scratch. Actually the current DVD drive could be swapped out for DVD/HD-DVD drive with a couple of screws and the existing cables. With no architecture changes and offer the same game and movie playback in one integrated package. I believe Microsoft will release a new HD premium version of the 360 with HD-DVD support and HDMI built-in to be able to compete with Apple and Sony for the living room. It is the next logical step just a matter of when.

mobius

01-31-07, 08:16 PM

At least one can't blame Universal and Warner for this. Appears the Sony delivered enough PS3 to control losses in their gaming division to an acceptable level, while ensuring that BD takes control of the format battle.

In my books 75% market share is the magic number at which the other format goes away. I believe one reason Warner could be waiting is to see if BD can indeed get upto the 75% mark by June.

It is also remarkable that dvdempire results were so in line with Videoscan. Perhaps, they ARE reporting videoscan results on their site. For the first and second weeks of Jan, the Videocan numbers reported by Grubert almost mirror dvdempire. It's also interesting that like Grubert's numbers, even dvd empire is using % share.

Anyway. I'd assume that the BDA will use it for their case, if these numbers are verifiable and true. Which I still don't know :confused:

But if it's 75% of *5% total market share (including DVD sales), then what does it really mean? I still say that price will be the ultimate predictor.

*Simply a guess

I know that many here were trumpeting HD-DVD's victory with blah-de-duh-dah-dah sales ratio to Bluray, but we were sampling but a tiny percentage of the market then, and we still are. IMO, no real winner will appear until these units are affordable.

Sketcha

01-31-07, 08:20 PM

That would be a relevent point if the question were "does the PS3 have a bigger effect on gaming or movies?" But that wasn't the question.

He made the statement that a greater number of PS3 owners thought of the PS3 as a movie player first and a game console second. The people who bought it for movies may well have bought more movies than the people who bought it for games did games, but that is irrelevent. The gross number of people who bought it primarily as a movies player vs. the number who bought it primarily as a game console is all that matters, for this conversation. Even if the gamers were casual buyers, while the movie watchers were intense buyers, it wouldn't matter.

I know I didn't do a good job of explaining that, but hopefully you can see what I mean. For the purposes of this discussion, it wouldn't matter how many movies you bought. You are either a person who sees the PS3 as primarily a game machine, or a person who see it as primarily a movie machine.

I got behind here. Had to take a call. You know, that whole... work thing gets in the way of my AVS time. So I hope I'm not repeating.

I believe the great majority of movie buffs AND gamers have bought more movies than games for the simple reason of availability.

That will change, true, but more PS3s will be sold to counter the lost attach rate.

plazman

01-31-07, 08:20 PM

Q1 07 is a bad Q for HD DVD. The Brits at Dunkirk.....

mobius

01-31-07, 08:20 PM

They will manage to piss off the 10M people who paid good money for a console that doesn't have this feature. :)

Moreover, a built-in HD-DVD drive would greatly increase the negative cost of the machine for practically no returns, as their videogames cannot be released on HD-DVD discs -- unless they want to trash their architecture and start from scratch.

The HD-DVD add-on will read DVD's won't it? If it does, then that means the drive could still be used to read DVD-based games. That wouldn't fracture the market at all. It might give some people an excuse to upgrade to 360 Super Duty model though. :)

nyg

01-31-07, 08:20 PM

Great.

So that means we'll be stuck with extra-less (or near extra-less) overpriced BD discs?

This still means nothing because the general public doesn't care.

I don't care about extras. Also, I don't feel that BDs are overpriced at all. All of them are priced comparably with DVD prices back in '98. Fox and Disney charged more back then too. Still, this is 9 years later... usually the prices for things go up... we're getting far superior technology for the same prices (some are actually less!).

D-Nice

01-31-07, 08:21 PM

The xob360 without the add-on will read DVDs....won't it?

Maxpower1987

01-31-07, 08:21 PM

Actually the current DVD drive could be swapped out for DVD/HD-DVD drive with a couple of screws and the existing cables. With no architecture changes and offer the same game and movie playback in one integrated package. I believe Microsoft will release a new HD premium version of the 360 with HD-DVD support and HDMI built-in to be able to compete with Apple and Sony for the living room. It is the next logical step just a matter of when.

WTF are you on! It is a lot more than just a drive change, the X360 was made for DVD, the architecture was built around it, any change to HD DVD will take a lot more than just a drive change. Add this to the fact that they would have to give 10m (expensive) HD DVD drives out for free if they had a retrofit program and made games on HD DVD.

They may release an update on the X360, but more than likely it will only be for a bigger HDD and HDMI.

nyg

01-31-07, 08:23 PM

Not long. Consumers looked at it and most thought it was the most ridiculous premise they had ever heard.

I think the war could be over "soon" as in late 2008. That's my definition of soon. If people think it'll be over in 2007 that's preposterous. This year is more jockeying for position and getting more players/media into homes. Consumer critical mass hasn't been reached by any stretch.

You're missing my point. Joe Sixpack didn't decide the DVD/DIVX war. What makes you so certain he'll decide the BD/HD DVD war? Chances are great that it'll be over before he even takes notice of the fact that high def discs exist.

D-Nice

01-31-07, 08:23 PM

Q1 07 is a bad Q for HD DVD. The Brits at Dunkirk.....

First month of Q1 is bad (edit: horrible). The entire Q1 failure on the HD DVD camp part remains to be seen. However this should be a major wake up call.....especially for it's championed studio "Universal".

Sketcha

01-31-07, 08:23 PM

Wait a minute. YTD means 2007 not 2006 thru 2007 right? IF YTD means 2007 (which it should) why wouldn't BD be ahead in sales? What was the ratio of movie releases this month?

See "Since Inception"

Kosty

01-31-07, 08:24 PM

Q1 07 is a bad Q for HD DVD. The Brits at Dunkirk.....

err... its not even through the first month of three yet.....

You guys always celebrate at the end of the first quarter?

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 08:24 PM

If it's true that the PS3 is being used for movies more than games, I believe the Sony execs are quite concerned.
While I understand the PS3 was meant to be an all encompassing product, it is first and foremost a gaming platform, and it appears the games may be what is hurting the PS3. The number of titles is down, and the wii is a more popular option.
With Sony taking a $128 hit on every PS3, it might take much longer to turn a profit than they ever expected.
To counter the poor sales, Sony is considering a price cut on the PS3.
While I agree this would be awesome news for consumers looking to get an affordable BD player, it could also spell disaster.

Uh, yeah...

I kindly ask that all the amateur financial predictions please be kept to a minimum. Mark0 believe me when I say that Sony doesn't care *what* you're buying the PS3 for at this moment, so long as it entails either Blu-ray and/or game sales.

Sony can handle the gaming losses - this quarter proves that without a shadow of a doubt.

("Poor sales," good god is there no escape from this reasoning?)

D-Nice

01-31-07, 08:26 PM

See "Since Inception"

I have. ANd common sense would tell you that no one would purchase hardware if they can't see (in the near future) any new software. SI still favors HD DVD. Next year this time, I still see the SI looking pretty much the same except BD being in favor.

Archipel

01-31-07, 08:27 PM

err... its not even through the first month of three yet.....

You guys always celebrate at the end of the first quarter?

Predictions and signs show Blu Ray will widen the gap through the first Q1. The 'celebration' would be much grander in a month or two.

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 08:28 PM

You guys always celebrate at the end of the first quarter?

But either way, what Blu-ray essentially completely caught up to HD DVD in sales in a very short amount of time... whatever else happens from here, even is this alone were the news story (and not the heavily Blu-ray slanted present sales), it would be a huge one.

nyg

01-31-07, 08:29 PM

Sketcha

01-31-07, 08:29 PM

If it's true that the PS3 is being used for movies more than games, I believe the Sony execs are quite concerned.

Availability.

There are loads more movies available right now than games and they cost less than half. Gamers can get Resitance and a few movies and wait 'til the good stuff comes out. Also remeber that many PS3 owners likely have 360s and already own the 360 versions of many of the games out right now, and, unfortunately for sony, also to come in the near future, for PS3.

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 08:29 PM

Next year this time, I still see the SI looking pretty much the same except BD being in favor.

More like this time next month at the rate things are going.

It went from 86:100 to 93:100 in a single week!

darinp2

01-31-07, 08:30 PM

As far as those who feel that Blu-ray has had way more releases recently and this is why the numbers look like they do for the weeks ending January 7th and 14th, we can look at what came out before that time and during it. The week of December 12th, 2006 had more HD DVD releases than Blu-ray releases. Same with the week of Dec 19th. For Dec 26th they each had 2 titles come out. The weeks that these numbers cover each had one title for Blu-ray and none for HD DVD. Those where "The Covenant" and "Crank". The next week we are likely to see (the one ending Jan 21st) might be a good one for HD DVD since they had more titles than Blu-ray for the 16th. The Weinsteins started running low and Universal hasn't done much since or have much announced for soon, so it is really the next week (the 23rd) where the number of Blu-ray titles is really starting to dominate the number of HD DVD titles released each week. For those who want to look at the release lists they are here:

2006 Release List (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=665702)

2007 Release List (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=766588)

For 2007, the only week scheduled so far through March that doesn't have more Blu-ray releases than HD DVD releases is March 6th, when HD DVD has one title scheduled ("The Good Sheperd") and Blu-ray doesn't have any scheduled at this point.

--Darin

blueenergy

01-31-07, 08:31 PM

WTF are you on! It is a lot more than just a drive change, the X360 was made for DVD, the architecture was built around it, any change to HD DVD will take a lot more than just a drive change. Add this to the fact that they would have to give 10m (expensive) HD DVD drives out for free if they had a retrofit program and made games on HD DVD.

They may release an update on the X360, but more than likely it will only be for a bigger HDD and HDMI. I was in no way indicating that Microsoft wants to make game that only play on HD-DVD drives. They have no reason to the current 9GB DVD are working fine. All I saying it that 360 DVD drive and can be swapped out for HD-DVD just like in a PC or laptop. Take a look inside (http://www.anandtech.com/systems/showdoc.aspx?i=2610&p=4) the 360.

darinp2

01-31-07, 08:33 PM

You guys always celebrate at the end of the first quarter?Given that some people here seemed to be celebrating after the kickoff, does that surprise you? :)

BTW: Even if HD DVD did have an 8:1 lead by August, they were probably smart to only say 3:1 given these numbers.

--Darin

Sketcha

01-31-07, 08:34 PM

You're missing my point. Joe Sixpack didn't decide the DVD/DIVX war. What makes you so certain he'll decide the BD/HD DVD war? Chances are great that it'll be over before he even takes notice of the fact that high def discs exist.

Agreed. J6P is not the right term. J6P buys when the players are 90 bucks and any format decision has been made months or years earlier.

dialog_gvf

01-31-07, 08:35 PM

Q1 07 is a bad Q for HD DVD. The Brits at Dunkirk.....

With the Japanese poised to roll across Europe and the UK!

Wait a second, that doesn't sound right.

:)

Maxpower1987

01-31-07, 08:36 PM

Sketcha

01-31-07, 08:36 PM

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 08:36 PM

I was in no way indicating that Microsoft wants to make game that only play on HD-DVD drives. They have no reason to the current 9GB DVD are working fine. All I saying it that 360 DVD drive and can be swapped out for HD-DVD just like in a PC or laptop. Take a look inside (http://www.anandtech.com/systems/showdoc.aspx?i=2610&p=4) the 360.

Microsoft wouldn't do this though, as they frankly don't care enough about who wins the format war to incur their own expense in such a crucially competetive segment for them as consoles. MS is on record both as saying that they will not integrate an HD DVD drive, and as saying that they would prefer digital distribution to both formats. If HD DVD starts to die, MS won't be the one to put themselves on the line to save it. Frankly they're already starting to pursue their true VC-1 ideal scenario via Live! movie distribution.

D-Nice

01-31-07, 08:36 PM

More like this time next month at the rate things are going.

It went from 86:100 to 93:100 in a single week!

Working in the corporate world, I don't look and numbers on a month to month basis as it's really volatile. Quarter over quarter, year over year, etc are far better forecast models to look at.

The playing field has been leveled, as expected. BD slacked during it's intro. HD DVD slacked when it got a hefty head start. Never underestimate your opponent. Don't believe me, ask the NE Patriots :D

majortom

01-31-07, 08:38 PM

Basically, I would have screwed up badly and had it been my job, I would expect to be fired :)

While you were wrong, you are admitting this much earlier than most would and provide great analysis of this data. If you were my employee, I would let you keep your job (I might check up on you a bit more). :-)

/carmi

spwolf

01-31-07, 08:38 PM

Numbers today simply don't mean that much. Neither format has a huge installed base of dedicated players.

We haven't hit the next phase where we get web/network connectivity, Managed Copy and more complex interactivity.

The goal is still the same for HD DVD. Get players out and get them into homes. Amazon still has brisk sales of the A2 (rank 12 for DVD players) and the Euro XE1 and E1 players look to be ready for larger delivery.

The only way to beat superior content is price with adequate content.
web/network connectivity for HD? Good luck :-) with that in next 10-15 years.

How will HD-DVD group bring more players out, when Sony is pumping PS3's as crazy? There is no way for HD-DVD group to bring 1/5th of the players out, compared to PS3 alone.

Not to mention that there is not enough content for HD-DVD for people to buy them. I mean seriously - how can anyone expect anything if less than 2 months after limited launch of PS3, BD is outselling HD-DVD 3x1?

jim_r

01-31-07, 08:38 PM

Are most PS3 games on BD's? I wonder if those videoscan numbers include those in BD sales.

Elwar

01-31-07, 08:39 PM

Obviously part PS3, part # of movie releases. The thing is, those factors will never reverse unless a studio defects, so the trend should continue.

mobius

01-31-07, 08:39 PM

The xob360 without the add-on will read DVDs....won't it?

Yes, but it won't play HD-DVD movies.

Sketcha

01-31-07, 08:39 PM

More like this time next month at the rate things are going.

It went from 86:100 to 93:100 in a single week!

Well, that's 7 points in one week. We're 2 weeks past this article. Based on this, albeit limited data, It is not unreasonable to assume that BD could be 7 points ahead by now.

spwolf

01-31-07, 08:40 PM

As soon as I opened and put an BD movie into PS3, I said it - war is over, BD has won.

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 08:40 PM

Working in a corporate world, I don't look and numbers on a month to month basis as it's really volatile. Quarter over quarter, year over year, etc are far better forecast models to look at.

The playing field has been leveled, as expected. BD slacked during it's intro. HD DVD slacked when it got a hefty head start. Never underestimate your opponent. Don't believe me, ask the NE Patriots :D

It's not that I don't appreciate your analogies D-Nice, it's just I think you underestimate the gravity of the momentum here. ;)

BUT, I will say this - it will be frustrating (for all of us I think) if this is the only window into BD/HD DVD comparative sales we will see for awhile. Do we have a 'steady' source of Nielson info lined up for after this point?

mobius

01-31-07, 08:40 PM

Are most PS3 games on BD's? I wonder if those videoscan numbers include those in BD sales.

I think that they all have to be on Bluray disks. I thinkthat developers have the option of BD9, BD25, or BD50.

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 08:41 PM

Are most PS3 games on BD's? I wonder if those videoscan numbers include those in BD sales.

All PS3 games are on BD, and no, games are not being counted here.

Man, some people truly are bewildered it seems!

(But rdjam said...)

the blob

01-31-07, 08:42 PM

The numbers do bode well for Blu Ray but i'm not convinced that it's gone that far ahead of HD-DVD just yet. The lack of new HD-DVD titles in that period is pretty obviously a hinderance to sales. Now, looking at the BD sales, The Covenant was a brand new day and date release in that first week, sold okay yet couldn't even maintain a top five position the second week against four older catalogue titles. The percentages of the 2-5 titles are also markedly different between the two weeks so it makes sense that Crank sold very well in it's first week. The Descent was released on Dec 26th yet couldn't hold a top five place a couple of weeks later.

Volume sales must be fairly low in general still, especially if M:I III was touted around the 30,000 mark for both formats as the top seller a little while back. Basically, it's not going to take a massive amount of sales of a big day and date release to tip the balance percentage wise when it's competing against a load of catalogue titles. I would expect this trend to continue until HD-DVD has some major exclusives out consistently, if that ever happens again. I think then we'd see a more accurate representation.

Also, where do volume sales really stand in the scheme of things? Studios will need bigger sales of high profile titles because they'll make more profit per unit the more they press. That will also help to offset the production costs of the lesser titles. What none of this tells us is that Crank or Batman Begins or whatever title will sell more on one format or the other so i suspect they'd be more concerned with those individual figures. I still have a suspicion that on an equal title-per-title basis, things are probably fairly even right now.

jim_r

01-31-07, 08:45 PM

All PS3 games are on BD, and no, games are not being counted here.

Man, some people truly are bewildered it seems!

(But rdjam said...)

You have some nerve for that comment "Man, some people truly are bewildered it seems!". It was a simple question and judging by some of the other resposes there apparently seems to be some disagreement as to whether or not those are included in the numbers. You are a very low-class and imature person, just like you childish "xbdestroya" name implies.

D-Nice

01-31-07, 08:46 PM

It's not that I don't appreciate your analogies D-Nice, it's just I think you underestimate the gravity of the momentum here. ;)

BUT, I will say this - it will be frustrating (for all of us I think) if this is the only window into BD/HD DVD comparative sales we will see for awhile. Do we have a 'steady' source of Nielson info lined up for after this point?

Underestimate gravity of the momentum? Don't think so. I just look at things from "outside the box" instead of playing cheerleader when my team is winning.

For the record, I'm neutral. I want both formats to stay and coexist because I trust neither party to provide me with the current excellent PQ/AQ if one dies.

If I had to cheerlead something, it would be hybrid players :D

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 08:49 PM

You have some nerver for that comment "Man, some people truly are bewildered it seems!". It was a simple question and judging by some of the other resposes there apparently seems to be some disagreement as to whether or not those are included in the numbers. You are a very low-class and imature person, just like you childish "xbdestroya" name implies.

I would generally take the time to explain the name and all the associated baggage in a situation like this... but not today. Suffice to say that game sales are not included, and the only people who could *possibly* think that they are, are people for whom these numbers simply do not make sense otherwise.

Whether you found the answer to your prefered phrasing or not, consider it answered either way.

Archipel

01-31-07, 08:51 PM

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 08:53 PM

Underestimate gravity of the momentum? Don't think so. I just look at things from "outside the box" instead of playing cheerleader when my team is winning.

"Outside the box" is indeed a very corporate tone to take on the issue; says nothing, means less. ;)

Either you underestimate it, and I am right, or I overestimate it, and I am wrong. We obviously both *think* the other is wrong; it would be a minor sign of insanity to assert positions in which one actually believes the contrary.

But, we'll just see what happens.

jim_r

01-31-07, 08:54 PM

I would generally take the time to explain the name and all the associated baggage in a situation like this... but not today. Suffice to say that game sales are not included, and the only people who could *possibly* think that they are, are people for whom these numbers simply do not make sense otherwise.

Whether you found the answer to your prefered phrasing or not, consider it answered either way.

Once again, you continue with the personal attacks based on a reasonable question that does not support what you cheerlead at every opportunity. Instead of providing a link proving your claim that games are not included, you simply insult and continue with your arrogance and superiority complex. No wonder you support BD. Birds of a feather...

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 08:56 PM

Once again, you continue with the personal attacks based on a reasonable question that does not support what you cheerlead at every opportunity. Instead of providing a link proving your claim that games are not included, you simply insult and continue with your arrogance and superiority complex. No wonder you support BD. Birds of a feather...

You can call me arrogant and this and that, but now that you're asking for a link to prove it, it just goes that much farther in proving my own point.

These are stats tracking film sales on both formats; why are game sales even a question here? Do DVD sales track video games on DVD? Or CD sales video games on CD?

Logic, Jim R, logic.

Mark0

01-31-07, 08:57 PM

nataraj

01-31-07, 08:57 PM

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 08:58 PM

Obviously no understanding of economics.

Do educate me on the matter.

(And it's finance, not economics... you are aware that those are two different areas of study, are you not?)

Maxpower1987

01-31-07, 08:58 PM

Guys can we stay on topic, it would not be cool if this thread was locked.

D-Nice

01-31-07, 08:59 PM

Either you underestimate it, and I am right, or I overestimate it, and I am wrong.

But, we'll just see what happens.

I did niether, so you are still wrong. You are correct, we shall see.....in the mean time, I'll enjoy both formats and support them equally, except for Fox.

D-Nice

01-31-07, 09:01 PM

(And it's finance, not economics... you are aware that those are two different areas of focus, are you not?)

Actually it's marketing and finance...but who am I to butt in ;)

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 09:01 PM

Actually it's marketing and finance...but who am I to butt in ;)

Hmmm... disagree with you. But who am I to disagree? ;)

D-Nice

01-31-07, 09:02 PM

Hmmm... disagree with you. But who am I to disagree? ;)

:D I liked that post.

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 09:04 PM

:D I liked that post.

I roll quick like that. :p

Archipel

01-31-07, 09:04 PM

How so ?

Well, the factual sales seem to be in line with the reports thrown in by some posters from several sources, like Amazon, BB and DVD Empire. To put 5 million on top of that would make a balance much MORE in favor of Blu Ray than just 2 to 1.

AnthonyP

01-31-07, 09:05 PM

According to Fox's prediction, we should be at less than 2:1 for Blu-ray:HD DVD. It appears they underestimated the adoption rate of PS3 owners.

if you look more closely (and at the BD and arrows) you will notice at

~100k you have 2:1 (HD DVD~ 50K)
~200K you have 3:1 (HD DVD~ 67k)
~250K you have 3.5:1 (HD DVD~ 71k)

jim_r

01-31-07, 09:06 PM

You can call me arrogant and this and that, but now that you're asking for a link to prove it, it just goes that much farther in proving my own point.

These are stats tracking film sales on both formats; why are game sales even a question here? Do DVD sales track video games on DVD? Or CD sales video games on CD?

Logic, Jim R, logic.

There is nothing on that graph that states movies only. You are making your own assumptions. However, if that is the reason that you believe they don't include games, you should have stated that to begin with instead of just insulting. You original post and the ones following that regarding this issue have done nothing but prove my point about your arrogance and imaturity and they are here for everyone to see for themselves.

Mark0

01-31-07, 09:08 PM

Finance, marketing, distribution, consumption.... I could go on all day here. But they're are all aspects of the economics.

You boys got to look at the bigger picture. ;)

D-Nice

01-31-07, 09:10 PM

I roll quick like that. :p

Hahahahha!!!!!

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 09:11 PM

There is nothing on that graph that states movies only. You are making your own assumptions. However, if that is the reason that you believe they don't include games, you should have stated that to begin with instead of just insulting. You original post and the ones following that regarding this issue have done nothing but prove my point about your arrogance and imaturity and they are here for everyone to see for themselves.

Jim, ok whatever. I apologize to you if you felt attacked on a personal level. Maybe these figures may mean game sales included... I hope you get it sorted out. Maybe rdjam can create an article on hdnow exploring the "mystery" of these numbers, and the obvious BDA conspiracy behind them. For my part, I think it's obvious.

Mark0

01-31-07, 09:11 PM

Do educate me on the matter.

(And it's finance, not economics... you are aware that those are two different areas of study, are you not?)

Not to toot my own horn, but I own my own engineering firm and also graduated with a minor in Economics. :)

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 09:13 PM

Finance, marketing, distribution, consumption.... I could go on all day here. But they're are all aspects of the economics.

You boys got to look at the bigger picture. ;)

I'm sure you could go all day, but what I'd really prefer you do, is point out what aspect of my previous statement you disagreed with. And we can take it from there. ;)

AV Doogie

01-31-07, 09:14 PM

You can call me arrogant and this and that, but now that you're asking for a link to prove it, it just goes that much farther in proving my own point.

These are stats tracking film sales on both formats; why are game sales even a question here? Do DVD sales track video games on DVD? Or CD sales video games on CD?

Logic, Jim R, logic.

Uh...there is information in one of the other threads which does in fact indicate that all BluRay discs are included in the calculation. So games are a part of the total discs sold..... Sorry if this deflates your balloon of happiness.

AnthonyP

01-31-07, 09:18 PM

Then if you go back to the same Home Media Magazine you'll see that none of the top 5 games sold were PS3 games. The top 4 were xbox 360.

maybe because there are many many more 360 out there

Azumi

01-31-07, 09:19 PM

There are several factors that explain why games aren't included in the data:

The main reason is that the homevideo and videogame industries are totally different. Each of those gets specific retail data based on the factual behavior of their markets. The Studios must get data which is only relevant to their market, like the videogame companies get data that concerns them alone. Moreover, data gathering/reporting and polling are specific to any industrial segment.

At the main retailers, the video and games sections are different. And if we move up in the ladder, each segment is controlled on a regional and national basis by different people. Key people, economics, business terms with publishers, etc... everything is specific for each industry.

UPC/EAN and cat numbers are also specific for the lines of products. Nielsen is certainly using those for their data gathering. If they got by accident some data coming from products of other segments, they'd detect it immediately.

And finally, I'm certain that both Nielsen and the retailers have fail-safe measures to prevent mismatch and errors. Any mistakes and gross miscalculations would be catastrophic for everyone, and they would have legal repercussions.

Mark0

01-31-07, 09:19 PM

I'm sure you could go all day, but what I'd really prefer you do, is point out what aspect of my previous statement you disagreed with. And we can take it from there.

It's really simple.

Sony sells the PS3 at a loss. While this is part of their model, they expect to turn a profit on game sales, not movies. If this were the case, dont' you think Sony would heavily subsidize standalone players?

If folks buy the PS3 for movies and not games, this will have a serious impact on Sony's model.

Check the latest reports on the web. There's a strong recommendation to "sell" Sony stock.

Sean_O

01-31-07, 09:19 PM

...unless you were being ironic

Were you not entertained? ;)

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 09:19 PM

Not to toot my own horn, but I own my own engineering firm and also graduated with a minor in Economics. :)

Which explains why you thought it was a subset of economics rather than finance. ;)

Not to toot my own horn, but I owned my own marketing firm for a while. So I assure you I'm up to the challenge if you wish to have it. In good spirits of course. :)

Sean_O

01-31-07, 09:22 PM

Not to toot my own horn, but I owned my own marketing firm for a while. So I assure you I'm up to the challenge if you wish to have it. In good spirits of course.

I would have never pegged you as a marketing guy ;)

nataraj

01-31-07, 09:24 PM

Well, the factual sales seem to be in line with the reports thrown in by some posters from several sources, like Amazon, BB and DVD Empire. To put 5 million on top of that would make a balance much MORE in favor of Blu Ray than just 2 to 1.

That makes sense.

I wonder how Nielsen gets data. We know they don't get it off internet vendors or walmart. So in our case that leaves just BB / CC ?

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 09:29 PM

It's really simple.

It's truly not that simple...

Sony sells the PS3 at a loss. While this is part of their model, they expect to turn a profit on game sales, not movies. If this were the case, dont' you think Sony would heavily subsidize standalone players?

In the short term, they don't expect a profit at all, and where there most immediate concern is, is the format war. Pushing Blu-ray into the PS3 was a central part of this push, and it has ramifications across the entirety of Sony's BD strategy. Not only is there a player now on the market in volumes no other device can touch, but this same device (and its associated volumes) have driven Sony on the diode side to iron out their diode fabrication process in a manner that would have taken *much* much longer if not aided by the internal push generated by the PS3. The PS3 in turn suffered for its role in fast-forwarding the diode expertise, but it was a strategic risk taken.

Sony is unable to put out a subsidized standalone because unlike HD DVD, one of BD's present strengths is the coalition of CE manufacturers behind it. They are no doubt tolerent of the PS3 (to whatever extent that they are), because they understand that there is still a market among the high-end purchasers who will never consider a console as an option. They are able to compete and market as normal in this environment, as Sony competes with them in the expected fashion. Were Sony to subsidize a standalone, I think it would put the entire CE coalition at serious risk, as truly then there would be some resentment brewing.

If folks buy the PS3 for movies and not games, this will have a serious impact on Sony's model.

As I said, this isn't the typical console model this go-around. PS3 will serve a dual purpose in the short term - indeed, BD is probably viewed as the more important of the two at the moment - and as time goes on, and 'real' games are released, it will settle into a more typical console model. As soon as BD player standalones reach price parity with PS3, it's role in the BD vanguard will have been served.

Check the latest reports on the web. There's a strong recommendation to "sell" Sony stock.

I recommend all of my posts in the thread I am about to link to, but especially this one and the two posts that follow it:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9642743&&#post9642743

I would have never pegged you as a marketing guy ;)

Well that's because I'm also a technology guy. ;)

My ever-present focus and passion...

darinp2

01-31-07, 09:32 PM

Uh...there is information in one of the other threads which does in fact indicate that all BluRay discs are included in the calculation. So games are a part of the total discs sold..... Which other thread indicates that it includes games?

Is there anybody who believes that if games were included the numbers up until January 7th since inception would be:

BD 85.05, HD 100.00

--Darin

joshd2012

01-31-07, 09:36 PM

Not to toot my own horn, but I own my own engineering firm and also graduated with a minor in Economics. :)

Not to toot my own horn, but I have a degree in Economics from a Top 40 Business School, and what you were talking about is not Economics.

AnthonyP

01-31-07, 09:40 PM

1. IF PS3 is a game console then you need to make money by selling games. So far, it does not seem Sony is really doing that.

how do you know that. People have bought games and my guess they will buy many more. I don’t think anyone in their right mind would expect a machine and 10 games being bought at the same time.

2. IF the PS3 is a video player then Sony needs to make money off of the hardware, since the margin on BD movies are probably very slim - if any at all.
so how has/will Toshiba make the money back on the loss of their 500$ player?

3. IF it is both. Then the subsidy on the player needs to be smaller than a game only device since it is expected that x% of consoles will be used primarily as a video player and hence will have a lower game attachment rate.

why. If a person would (coming out of the store with a PS3) buy two games but now he buys two games and three movies why is that bad for Sony? They are making MORE money not less

Mark0

01-31-07, 09:43 PM

It's truly not that simple...

In the short term, they don't expect a profit at all, and where there most immediate concern is, is the format war. Pushing Blu-ray into the PS3 was a central part of this push, and it has ramifications across the entirety of Sony's BD strategy. Not only is there a player now on the market in volumes no other device can touch, but this same device (and its associated volumes) have driven Sony on the diode side to iron out their diode fabrication process in a manner that would have taken *much* much longer if not aided by the internal push generated by the PS3. The PS3 in turn suffered for its role in fast-forwarding the diode expertise, but it was a strategic risk taken.

Sony is unable to put out a subsidized standalone because unlike HD DVD, one of BD's present strengths is the coalition of CE manufacturers behind it. They are no doubt tolerent of the PS3 (to whatever extent that they are), because they understand that there is still a market among the high-end purchasers who will never consider a console as an option. They are able to compete and market as normal in this environment, as Sony competes with them in the expected fashion. Were Sony to subsidize a standalone, I think it would put the entire CE coalition at serious risk, as truly then there would be some resentment brewing.

As I said, this isn't the typical console model this go-around. PS3 will serve a dual purpose in the short term - indeed, BD is probably viewed as the more important of the two at the moment - and as time goes on, and 'real' games are released, it will settle into a more typical console model. As soon as BD player standalones reach price parity with PS3, it's role in the BD vanguard will have been served.

I recommend all of my posts in the thread I am about to link to, but especially this one and the one that follows it:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9642743&&#post9642743

Well that's because I'm also a technology guy. ;)

My ever-present focus and passion...

OK, you're right. It's not that simple. :D

While I agree with a lot of what you say here, I disagree with your view of the relative importance of the PS3/BD. I strongly believe Sony is first and foremost in a "gaming" war, BD is only a sideshow.

That said, I agree that Sony has got to be cute about who's (CE) toes they step on. While the outward appearance may look rosey, I'm sure there are a few CE's upset with the subsidization of the PS3. I believe Sony has been purposely limiting the PS3's movie features. It's current inability to upscale and lack of remote come to mind.

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 09:48 PM

OK, you're right. It's not that simple. :D

While I agree with a lot of what you say here, I disagree with your view of the relative importance of the PS3/BD. I strongly believe Sony is first and foremost in a "gaming" war, BD is only a sideshow.

Well, I don't know about that... and that's not to say I agree with the way they've approached it either - just saying that we won't really know how much this bundling cost them in the long-run until about December 07. By then we should have in focus if there was a price paid for the BD push, and how dear it was. Still though, I think Sony long-term views BD royalties as potentially much greater than one generation of much-reduced gaming profitability (if that indeed results).

That said, I agree that Sony has got to be cute about who's (CE) toes they step on. While the outward appearance may look rosey, I'm sure there are a few CE's upset with the subsidization of the PS3. I believe Sony has been purposely limiting the PS3's movie features. It's current inability to upscale and lack of remote come to mind.

I would tend to agree, but I'm looking forward to March to see if any of that is addressed all the same. ;)

Even as it is, I expect background algorithm updates to the code running on Cell for BD playback throughout the consoles life, which should keep it forever competetive in the PQ game.

egcarter

01-31-07, 09:50 PM

I'm unable to tell you where I read it, but I did read that Nielsen extrapolates Wal-mart and Amazon results, and these figures are added to their data. And given Nielsen's longstanding reputation, they shouldn't be far off from the truth.

Nielsen's TV ratings data has long been questioned by the TV and cable outlets...in fact, some have jumped ship and gone to other suppliers for data. That's why they have been instituting a complete overhaul of their methodologies.

So any data one gets should be taken with a grain of salt.

AnthonyP

01-31-07, 09:54 PM

Are most PS3 games on BD's? I wonder if those videoscan numbers include those in BD sales.

no VS is point of sale not manufacturing or anything like that.

Dahlsim

01-31-07, 09:56 PM

More than 70% of people buying a PS3 have a strong interest in acquiring movies for it.

No doubt a good percentage of PS3 buyers are early adopter AV types rather the normal group of early adopter gamers that would buy a new gaming console. Just observe the number of people right here on AVS that have bought a PS3 specifically to buy movies.

With the PS3 being the best blu-ray player on the market and as cheap as it is for an early standalone player it's current player base represents more than just gamers.

plazman

01-31-07, 09:57 PM

Tosh put out 50K subsidized units. It was to jump start the format. They switched to a at cost and for profit model. Sony, is selling millions of PS3 at subsidy with no plans to making money off of the hardware. Not the same.

No hardware I know of has seen sold with up to 50% subsidy - not even razors! The actual PS3 subsidy is way more than 50% now. I won't be surprised if the actual loss is in the $400-450 for each unit.

Anyone who says Sony doesn't care whether you buy movies or games with the PS3 is fooling themselves. They care a lot! Games have a much higher margin.

If media royalties were sufficient, Sony would give away the PSP and SACD Players, no?

Azumi

01-31-07, 09:57 PM

That makes sense.

I wonder how Nielsen gets data. We know they don't get it off internet vendors or walmart. So in our case that leaves just BB / CC ?

In Europe you use a variety of techniques:

- First you get from the studios/publishers the number of copies in circulation. This is easy for big releases and it might be difficult for smaller ones and from indies,
- Then, if you have an "excellent" relationship with a retailer, you should be able to know pretty accurately how many copies were shipped to every store/point of sale,
- At a certain point, every store will report sales data to the centralized supply chain or whatever internal logistic entity they may have,
- Assuming you still have a good relationship with them, you'll get this feed of data or at least some excerpts. At the very worst, you have people phoning retailers twice a week,
- Another method of data gathering which is used in Europe, is to send inspectors to retailers. They usually EAN-scan the titles in the top spots to measure actual product placement, but they can also do data gathering,
- And then there are several other ways to reconcile and/or extrapolate data. A studio might already tell you how many copies they shipped in region A, how many in region B, and so on. Based on a variety of factors (importance of the store, of the city, estimated flux of consumers...) you can make a pretty good guess on the sales strength. I'm sure the same method is applied in the US -- for instance, the Sony people can estimate how many copies of Casino Royale will be sold in all the Best Buys in Colorado, compared to those that will be sold in the Washington State.
- And finally, you have all sorts of data correlation you can use for the loose ends. Any major movie will definitely have a film-to-video attach ratio, and you can fine-tune it on a national or regional level. This might tell you for instance not to expect terrific sales of Crank from the Detroit area because for some reason the box-office results from this city weren't great in the first place.

Now try to combine all these of techniques and add several other layers of processes and things I'm unaware of. ;)

Dahlsim

01-31-07, 09:59 PM

Somehow i don't see that happening, if ms have room to move on the 360 price, they're better off just dropping it to further gain more market share in the console race. MS have lost around 5-6 billion in the console race already, their goal is to win that war, while sony is chasing bluray, this is their best opportunity ever.

MS has played up their interest HD downloads but they won't own that space alone forever. Sony could certainly offer HD downloads later on the PS3 and unlike MS they own plenty of their own content to put on a service as well.

The shortage in games won't last too long on the PS3 either. It's too early to call the games console race.

I believe Microsoft will release a new HD premium version of the 360 with HD-DVD support and HDMI built-in to be able to compete with Apple and Sony for the living room. It is the next logical step just a matter of when.

It seems likely they'll add a larger HDD and HDMI but the HD-DVD support is a bigger question. Lite-On is reported to be producing hd-dvd drives for them but no indication what it's for. Someone would need to take up the cost for it, either Toshiba or MS. MS seems be focused on making the Xbox division profitable which wouldn't seem to indicate subsidizing a more expensive optical drive.

Microsoft wouldn't do this though, as they frankly don't care enough about who wins the format war to incur their own expense in such a crucially competetive segment for them as consoles. MS is on record both as saying that they will not integrate an HD DVD drive, and as saying that they would prefer digital distribution to both formats.

If HD DVD starts to die, MS won't be the one to put themselves on the line to save it. Frankly they're already starting to pursue their true VC-1 ideal scenario via Live! movie distribution.

Quotes from MS does seem to line up with your description. MS won't escape unscathed though if BD takes command quickly. That would raise the value of PS3 in the longterm, prices will come down, games will go up and the console race will be in the balance again.

In addition to the PS3 2 of MS other favorite technologies will also get a boost from BD in the longterm, Java & Linux.

SwissArmyBud

01-31-07, 10:01 PM

One thing NO ONE has mentioned is that the PS3 has yet to come out in Europe... a major player in this whole thing...

EDIT: although numbers don't include European sales figures, Europe IS a player in the "war"

AnthonyP

01-31-07, 10:02 PM

People thinking games are being incorperated in the countings ar misinformed. Since it launch 5 million PS3 games have been sold.

http://www.news4gamers.com/ClickOut.aspx?ObjID=20128

Wouln't that be a somewhat more disfigured inbalance?

How so ?

what do you mean how so. it would not be even for the last 12 months nor anywhere near 2:1 for the last week. Do you think anywhere near 5M HD DVDs have sold so far?

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 10:05 PM

heavyharmonies

01-31-07, 10:06 PM

Not to rain on the jubilant Blu-Ray lovefest here celebrating that the format war is over, but y'all need a serious reality check. Blu-Ray's had a phenomenal *month* compared to HD-DVD... during a period when virtually no new HD-DVD releases came out and during a period when no worthwhile games are available for the PS3.

Extrapolating that single month out ad infinitum is a fool's gambit... as much idiocy as those who celebrated prematurely at the initial HD-DVD sales numbers and proclaimed BR dead.

I realize that it's the usual suspects leading the cheerleading, so attempting to interject logic here is about as useful as tits on a bull, but you do realize that the sales numbers for both formats combined are so small that it would not take much to invert the trend (or steepen it), right? Any time you are working with small samples/populations, it doesn't take much to skew the results one way or the other.

We very well could see the trends cross one another back and forth several times over the course of 2007 and into 2008 before anything definitive occurs.

Best to just chill, buy both formats, and enjoy it all...

RobertR1

01-31-07, 10:08 PM

AnthonyP

01-31-07, 10:15 PM

There is nothing on that graph that states movies only.

It is VS that is what they do they categories and release numbers for different categories movies are movies audio is audio games are games. Do you buy a disk without knowing if it is a game or a movie? why do you think he store you bought it in are any more clueless?

Deja Vu

01-31-07, 10:16 PM

Wow! According to you guys this war is already over! Interestingly enough I think its just starting. You can lose most of the battles and still win a war. There's a saying, "pride comes before a fall".

Cheers,

Grant

AnthonyP

01-31-07, 10:25 PM

I wonder how Nielsen gets data. We know they don't get it off internet vendors or walmart. So in our case that leaves just BB / CC ?

http://www.videoscan.com/about.html

SwissArmyBud

01-31-07, 10:26 PM

AnthonyP

01-31-07, 10:28 PM

paulbh

01-31-07, 10:35 PM

It will be interesting keeping tabs on these data points throughout 2007 to see if this trend continues and how volatile it is on a weekly basis (i.e. how significant of an impact is a new release). Two weeks is an awfully short sample to draw any grand conclusions from. I imagine many PS3 buyers are at least trying a Blu-Ray movie or two (or a few) to see what all the fuss is about. Whether they are as sold on buying HD material on an ongoing basis as most of us are remains to be seen.

raaj

01-31-07, 10:40 PM

No hardware I know of has seen sold with up to 50% subsidy - not even razors! The actual PS3 subsidy is way more than 50% now. I won't be surprised if the actual loss is in the $400-450 for each unit.

Plazman I'm going to tell you definitively, that the PS3 subsidy is *not* $400-450.

It is high, but not that high! ;)

No hardware I know of has seen sold with up to 50% subsidy - not even razors! The actual PS3 subsidy is way more than 50% now. I won't be surprised if the actual loss is in the $300-400 for each unit.

;)

Sketcha

01-31-07, 10:46 PM

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 10:46 PM

No hardware I know of has seen sold with up to 50% subsidy - not even razors! The actual PS3 subsidy is way more than 50% now. I won't be surprised if the actual loss is in the $300-400 for each unit.

Ok, now I just finished telling Plazman that the subsidy was *not* in the 50% range... and you're here telling me it's in the 50% range?

First of all, quick math lesson: a 50% subsidy would mean a loss of ~$500 per console. (Total cost to manufacture, $1000 - price at retail $500 = subsidy $500) For the $600 unit, a 50% subsidy would mean $600.

And again, those example loss figures... the $300-400 per unit, are themselves too high as well. I don't know where you guys are getting these numbers from, but they're pretty bad. ;)

joshd2012

01-31-07, 10:52 PM

Congrats to Grubert - Your post made The Digital Bits (though, he didn't give you credit for finding the data).

Blu-ray now has two titles sitting in the Top 100 at Amazon.com (first in recorded history for either Blu-ray or HD DVD) with The Departed and Casino Royale. HD DVD has none.

DavidHir

01-31-07, 10:53 PM

BR content advantage was going to show up sooner or later and here it is today. If they maintain this advantage throughout 07 or even pull away more and more, this should be over by CES 08. If the HD DVD group does manage to get more studio support we'll be in this war longer. That'll really be the key, unless the studios care more about attach rates vs volume sold, then who knows?

I agree about the content advantage. I don't believe Universal and Weinstein will be anywhere near enough to compete with Fox, Disney (and its studios), MGM, Sony, and Lionsgate as the year moves forward. In addition, there are still something like 20 Warner titles yet to arrive on Blu-ray. This, in addition to several million more PS3s to be sold this year - I think all of this is going to be very difficult for HD DVD - $199 Chinese players or not.

raaj

01-31-07, 10:53 PM

Ok, now I just finished telling Plazman that the subsidy was *not* in the 50% range... and you're here telling me it's in the 50% range?

First of all, quick math lesson: a 50% subsidy would mean a loss of ~$500 per console. (Total cost to manufacture, $1000 - price at retail $500 = subsidy $500) For the $600 unit, a 50% subsidy would mean $600.

And again, those example loss figures... the $300-400 per unit, are themselves too high as well. I don't know where you guys are getting these numbers from, but they're pretty bad. ;)

You could argue semantics, but I know you understood why I was using Plazman's post verbatim. Now, cut to the chase and give us those "definitive" numbers. ;) You could also give the exact cost price of the PS3, if you are going to use that as a basis to refute Plazman's assertion of a 50% subsidy.

the blob

01-31-07, 10:54 PM

BTW, the top 5 BD sales for Jan 7th don't quite match with The Rentrak weekly sales data at videobusiness.com, just to throw some confusion in there..

1. The Deescent
2. Superman Returns
3. The Covenant
4. The Fifth Element
5. Underworld Evolution

compared to:

1. The Covenant 100.00
2. X-Men: The Last Stand 73.42
3. Superman Returns 73.13
4. Talladega Nights 72.31
5. The Descent 53.86

Sketcha

01-31-07, 11:09 PM

SwissArmyBud

01-31-07, 11:20 PM

The initial production cost is estimated to be US$805.85 for the 20 GB model and US$840.35 for the 60 GB model - Wikipedia

Means 38% subsidy for the 20GB and 29% for the 60GB

mobius

01-31-07, 11:20 PM

Uh, yeah...

I kindly ask that all the amateur financial predictions please be kept to a minimum. Mark0 believe me when I say that Sony doesn't care *what* you're buying the PS3 for at this moment, so long as it entails either Blu-ray and/or game sales.

Sony can handle the gaming losses - this quarter proves that without a shadow of a doubt.

("Poor sales," good god is there no escape from this reasoning?)

Given everything we heard from Sony, the gaming press, Bluray studios, and the success of the PS2, I'd say that PS3 sales are most accurately described as "poor". Moreover, it's equally accurate to say that all indicators from mainstream news outlets like the NYT, the gaming press, and market analysts that Sony is taking a beating on the PS3 in terms of cost.

So, Kutaragi-san, :p how many years until the PS3 is at break-even point cost-wise?

mobius

01-31-07, 11:24 PM

yes it does but the pride and fall happened to HD DVD supporters.

Actually, I think that Bluray supporters reached that plateau first when the first Bluray movies and Samsung player were launched. ;)

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 11:24 PM

Given everything we heard from Sony, the gaming press, Bluray studios, and the success of the PS2, I'd say that PS3 sales are most accurately described as "poor". Moreover, it's equally accurate to say that all indicators from mainstream news outlets like the NYT, the gaming press, and market analysts that Sony is taking a beating on the PS3 in terms of cost.

So, Kutaragi-san, :p how many years until the PS3 is at break-even point cost-wise?

Mobius, two things:

1) I don't pretend to know when the PS3 will be breakeven in terms of manufacturing costs. But I do know a thing or three about what factors into these costs though, and I also know when the numbers tossed around are way off the radar. All of that said, the division itself is supposed to reach profitability again by the end of fiscal '08. That's not the same as saying the hardware itself will be breakeven, but it's what can be said right now.

If the $400 loss per unit figure were accurate, that would translate into a hardware-only loss of roughly $2.4 billion on PS3 for this fiscal year alone. That's before airfreight, before R&D expenditures, before marketing.... before everything (though PS2/PSP would - as it has - defray that a little). Now, since the losses are expected closer to $1.7 billion instead, I think it's *quite* safe to say that $400 per console is too high.

2) Your post in no way deals with or replies to the post of mine you chose to quote.

AnthonyP

01-31-07, 11:31 PM

Actually, I think that Bluray supporters reached that plateau first when the first Bluray movies and Samsung player were launched.

what pride or fall happened then? did nayone think that in a day BD would take over because of the Samsung player?

mobius

01-31-07, 11:34 PM

Mobius, two things:

1) I don't pretend to know when the PS3 will be breakeven in terms of manufacturing costs. But I do know a thing or three about what factors into these costs though, and I also know when the numbers tossed around are way off the radar. All of that said, the division itself is supposed to reach profitability again by the end of fiscal '08. That's not the same as saying the hardware itself will be breakeven, but it's what can be said right now.

2) Your post in no way deals with or replies to the post of mine you chose to quote.

1) I can assure you that I *know* a few things as well. Fiscal 2008 is a possibility, but by no means assured if Sony keeps getting their butts handed to them in Japan and the U.S. Of course they'll always have Europa- or so they say. And I agree, 50% is way off the radar.

2) You made the comment:

("Poor sales," good god is there no escape from this reasoning?)

What are you referring to then. I took that comment to mean that you didn't think the PS3 is selling poorly; or that it isn't a cause for concern for Sony. If I'm wrong, I apologize.

RROSEN

01-31-07, 11:38 PM

Interesting thread.

Couple observations. Firstly I find it very humorous that all the Blu-Ray folks are now touting the sales figures as significant now while all the HD-DVD folks are now panning them as meaninless where it was completely reversed 3-4 months ago.

It seems apparent to me that disk sales have evened out at the very least and yes most likley Blu-Ray is selling more. I for one had been buying 1-2 HD-DVD movies a week and have maybe bought 5-6 since November and 3 of those were overseas.

The reason being a lack of good releases. I am sure the PS3 has had a big impact as well, but if I take myself as an example (which I am apt to do) then at least some of it is availability of good new releases.

Just as HD-DVD being ahead meant little in November, BDA being ahead now means little in the overall scheme of things. HD-DVD isn't going to throw in the towel any more than BDA is.

If one or the other can finish 2007 with a 4 or 5 to 1 sales advantage without SIGNIFICANT news for 2008 to offset that then maybe, just maybe we could see some movement.

I also am not so sure how well this model is going to work for Sony. I imagine that they are hoping that they sell a lot more games per PS3 than movies. For example if I were to buy a PS3 at the 150-300USD loss depending on who is giving the numbers and then I only buy movies (and lets say only a fraction of those are Sony) how many movies / how long do you think it would take Sony to break even on my purchase? Maybe never given the cost of carrying that dept until I make it up on their movies.

They lose x on the game so IP licensing is meaningless, they maybe make $1 or less on each movie I buy that isn't one of theirs. For the ones of theirs I do buy they probably don't make much more than they would have if I had just bought the DVD version.

I am not even taking into account the probabilty that they are subsidizing some of the mastering (pressing whatever you want to call it) so they might not even make that $1 off non-Sony movies.

Compare that to what they make on a stand alone player (more than negative $300 usd for sure in licensing) and / or if I were to buy a video game and it sure seems pretty obvious so me which direction they would prefer things to go.

Spin it any way you like, but I think things are still going to get a heck of a lot more interesting over the next year or so in this whole thing.

Cheers

xbdestroya

01-31-07, 11:39 PM

What are you referring to then. I took that comment to mean that you didn't think the PS3 is selling poorly; or that it isn't a cause for concern for Sony. If I'm wrong, I apologize.

Ah ok, I see what you were refering to now.

Yeah that's correct, I don't see PS3 sales as presently being 'bad.' :)

I'm expecting January US sales of ~300k, which would beat 360 sales in every month of last year except November and December, when Gears of War came out. Yes, PS3 is available, and no its demand doesn't match that of Wii... but a lot of that availability has to do with Sony so effectively resupplying the channel.

It's not a 'sell-out' item right now, but hey... 300k, that's my expectation.

mobius

01-31-07, 11:40 PM

what pride or fall happened then? did nayone think that in a day BD would take over because of the Samsung player?

"Beyond High Definition", or Talkstr8t's tag about the PS3 launch and Bluray domination, etc... You know that there were some Bluray fans really harping things up here.

Bluray had all the advantages, yet when it launched it was perceived by the majority here and other mainstream outlets as somewhat blah (fairly or not). That "blah" launch wasn't consistent with the expectations created pre-launch.

HomerJay

01-31-07, 11:41 PM

I have. ANd common sense would tell you that no one would purchase hardware if they can't see (in the near future) any new software. SI still favors HD DVD. Next year this time, I still see the SI looking pretty much the same except BD being in favor.The point you seem to be missing is that EVERY movie on the shelf is new to new buyers of either format now. It's not like the people making the decision to buy a next-gen player in front of the movie selections are either a) frequenting the same informational outlets we are (sure, they likely will be shortly) or b) watching as new releases are being put out (oh, look Blu-ray had 2 more movies put out this week than HD DVD...clearly that's the winner...D'OH!!...how much are those players?... ;) ).

After this week I have a hard time believing that any Best Buy employee would be able to suggest that HD DVD is dead. Those players must be flying off the shelves... :)

Additionally, hardware plays a much bigger role than a lot here suggest. It is generally considered wise to market to the largest possible audience. Without new hardware in the wild, studios are going to grow very tired of serving up the same small audience every Tuesday.

wnorris

01-31-07, 11:46 PM

These are all true IF the data as reported is true. For now, I can't find it on their site. So, unless someone points me to a link that shows the actual data, I will have to start second guessing...

However, if this data is true. Then we are seeing the end of HD DVD. Like I said, new content had very little impact on the top 5 titles. It was all PS3!

It would illustrate a tremendous hardware momentum that again would prove that Fox was right about HD DVD being unable to create a beach head. Once again, I would have been wrong in my analysis.

Basically, I would have screwed up badly and had it been my job, I would expect to be fired :)

Why would this indicate we are seeing the end of HD-DVD? This indicates Sony needs 5X as many players and 3X as many releases to catchup to HD-DVD. This is common sense and something already expected. It also validates that the attach rate for BD is much lower than that of HD-DVD. It points out that many PS3 owners aren't even using the PS3 as a player. With 500,000+ NA PS3's on the market, if each just bought 2 discs per month, Sony would have surpassed nearly the entire years worth of HD-DVD sales in just four weeks. By the week ending the 14th, the SI indeces would be 100 BD and ~50 HD-DVD. Since it is not, once can safely assume that many are not averaging two discs per month. The current ratio would seem to indicate that ~50% of PS3 owners average two discs a month. Since there are obviously a large chunk of PS3's owners who buy more discs than that, you are at only 25% of PS3 owners with a 4 disc average, or only 12.5% with a 8 disc average, using it to play movies on a regular basis.

This means that in a year, when 10 million PS3's are in homes (if they hit their target, which is doubtful, and 10 mil is a worldwide number), only 1 million or so will be used to view purchased movies on a regular basis. We already know HD-DVD is at about 175,000 players used to view purchased movies regularly, so they have a year to sell 825,000 more worldwide, which I don't think is out of reason. Sony needs to sell 9 million more PS3's to keep track with HD-DVD selling 825,000 more players. HD-DVD is a sniper rifle and BD is a shotgun!

All this info shows is that BD and HD-DVD have achieved parity and a year from know, they will still likely be at parity. I honestly think HD-DVD will be ahead worldwide in hardware (that is actually used to regularly playbck HD movies) by the end of the year. The only thing that could really set HD-DVD back is if the slow release schedule in January, drags over to Feb, March, and so forth. Hopefully things will pick up by March to try to get those tax dollars.