View Full Version : Videoscan data - please elaborate!
xboxboi 02-02-07, 10:51 PM Call me a ******, i dont call. Can someone please explain the Nielsen Videoscans's data that EVERYBODY is going huhhaa about. Blu-ray is leading HD DVD 2-1. What was that? a week of data?
All i am getting is BD managed to within 2 weeks overthrew HD DVD's lead in the total title sales since April last year. Lets say that HD DVD managed to sell 2.8mil movies (28 attach rate x 100,000 players) as of second week of January. As BDA did not use the sales data during CES, i can bet on my dead grandma's soul that HD DVD was outselling BD atleast as off CES. So BD not only, in two weeks time, managed to overthrew the lead and but double the sales figure. As in they sold 5.6mil BD movies? Meaning the sold more than 2.8mil copies of BD within the last two weeks?
xboxboi 02-02-07, 11:00 PM and one more thing, BD trolls please do not even attempt to post here. If i smell SLIGHTEST trolling, i would not hesitate to report you to the moderator. I am so sicking tired of these people systematically and repeatedly corrupting every positive HD DVD thread, stir up emotion, and create fights with the intention of getting the thread closed (so that the threads would dissapear into thin air).
I don't know about those numbers. They are very volitale. In fact the 3rd week in January HD-DVD outsold BD. Grubert just posted those new number this morning:
New data in:
Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00
Top 5 BD
1. Crank 100.00
2. Gridiron Gang 96.88
3. Black Hawk Down 92.35
4. Underworld: Evolution 84.46
5. Employee of the Month 71.86
Top 5 HD DVD
1. Clerks II 100.00
2. Batman Begins 90.04
3. The Mummy Returns 87.67
4. Lucky Number Slevin 72.84
5. Troy 45.61
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9661899&&#post9661899
Here is some more data from that thread:
Originally Posted by Grubert
New data in:
Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00
...
Historical data
Week ended Jan 14
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 38.36
SI: BD 92.40, HD 100.00
...
Week ended Jan 7
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 47.14
SI: BD 85.05, HD 100.00
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9662169&&#post9662169
As you can see, BD went from 85 to 92 and then back to 82. Very volitale. Maybe because of the small total amount being sold on each format or maybe because of how the numbers are obtained. I don't know. But, I think it shows that people should not make so much of these numbers.
xboxboi 02-02-07, 11:19 PM OMG -- i cant believe these net idiots and BDA paid mercenaries spreading false information about the sales with the sole intention of creating media hype.
The sales figure as shown below can easily be translated into 6,800 BD disk vs 3,200 HD DVD disks in 7th Jan 2007, 7,200 BD disks vs 2,800 HD DVD disks in 14th Jan and 6,600 BD disks vs 3,400 HD DVD disks on 21th Jan.
http://img372.imageshack.us/img372/6408/bdhdytdvx6.png
xboxboi 02-03-07, 12:55 AM okie - this calculation proves that the actual sales figure for the weeks researched are extremely small.
The data SHOWS that HD DVD is CLEARLY EXTENDING its sales lead over Blu-ray (Total disk sale (since inception)). HD DVD is actually distancing itself from Blu--ray in 21 Jan as compared to the 7th Jan figure. 7th Jan (54%-46%=8%) but in 21th (55%-45%=10%). So the figure is actually good news for HD DVD when the whole world (atleast cyberworld) spin the 2-1 figure to spell HD DVD's demise and i idiotically fell for that .. I am so ashamed !!
dad1153 02-03-07, 01:57 AM Guys, any chance the BB promotion a few weeks ago involving free BD movies (Kung-Fu Hustle, Black Hawk Down, Underworld: Evolution and many others) has artificially spiked the numbers in favor of Blu-ray? If it did maybe HD-DVD needs to do its own weekend promotion at BB, CC or other stores to help them move unsold inventory. BB is preparing another big promotion giving away BD's so that will again move inventory and reflect positively on the charts. :(
darinp2 02-03-07, 02:28 AM All i am getting is BD managed to within 2 weeks overthrew HD DVD's lead in the total title sales since April last year. Lets say that HD DVD managed to sell 2.8mil movies (28 attach rate x 100,000 players) as of second week of January. As BDA did not use the sales data during CES, i can bet on my dead grandma's soul that HD DVD was outselling BD atleast as off CES. So BD not only, in two weeks time, managed to overthrew the lead and but double the sales figure. As in they sold 5.6mil BD movies? Meaning the sold more than 2.8mil copies of BD within the last two weeks?No. The 2:1 was for 2007, or Year-To-Date. The Since-Inception (or since last April) still favors HD DVD according to those numbers.
Also, the average ownership time for players was way less than a year, so an annualized rate of 28 movies per player would end up with less than 28 average for 2006. I think the data we've gotten supports that HD DVD sold maybe 1.5 to 1.6 million discs in 2006.
The sales figure as shown below can easily be translated into 6,800 BD disk vs 3,200 HD DVD disks in 7th Jan 2007, 7,200 BD disks vs 2,800 HD DVD disks in 14th Jan and 6,600 BD disks vs 3,400 HD DVD disks on 21th Jan.But those numbers wouldn't reconcile with the Since-Inception numbers. The problem here seems to be that no numbers work out to supporting both the YTD and SI numbers that have been published. One of those you-can't-get-there-from-here things. Put another way, if BD had only sold 7200 discs the week ending the 14th, there is no way they could have gained 7% in the Since-Inception numbers. But it seems that using higher numbers for this year's sales also doesn't get you there considering the way that BD retained a 2:1 lead for 2007, while HD DVD supposedly gained something like 10% in the Since-Inception category in one week.
--Darin
Chris_TC 02-03-07, 03:26 AM New data in:
Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00
...
Historical data
Week ended Jan 14
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 38.36
SI: BD 92.40, HD 100.00
...
Week ended Jan 7
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 47.14
SI: BD 85.05, HD 100.00
Now wait a second. YTD means "year to date", and SI means "since inception"?
Do you guys realize what this means? Since both values, YTD and SI, improved in HD DVD's favor for the week that ended January 21, it means that in this week HD DVD sold actually more discs than Blu-ray.
Hasn't everybody spelled doom for HD DVD and talked about a huge Blu-ray sales lead? Gotta check out that other thread right away.
check this link
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9670236&&#post9670236
something with data of the 3rd week is not correct.....
I also agree that the data for three weeks doesn't match.
Looking at other parameters (that is, HD-DVD should have had a good week), I think, it is the SI that is wrong. Anything smaller than 90.5 gives ridiculous numbers.
With 100:92.3 (assuming that 82.3 was a typo), it looks more reasonable!
Bottom line is that the reported numbers don't match up.
Marek
Chris_TC 02-03-07, 05:58 AM check this link
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9670236&&#post9670236
something with data of the 3rd week is not correct.....
How exactly do we know that the data of the 3rd week is incorrect?
It could be any of the published data that's incorrect.
The suggested typo does not seem reasonable to me. Why would Blu-ray sales have gone down by two thirds?
How exactly do we know that the data of the 3rd week is incorrect?
It could be any of the published data that's incorrect.
The suggested typo does not seem reasonable to me. Why would Blu-ray sales have gone down by two thirds?
I also think that BD can't go down that far.. that's why I posted that link....
and you are right that any data can be incorrect.....
just frist two weeks you can quite easily recalculate..... and 3rd week somehow don't add ..... there are more post over there which can explain that better than me :)
marek
Schlotkins 02-03-07, 10:48 AM I also think that BD can't go down that far.. that's why I posted that link....
and you are right that any data can be incorrect.....
just frist two weeks you can quite easily recalculate..... and 3rd week somehow don't add ..... there are more post over there which can explain that better than me :)
marek
Why not? It changed by over 7% the prior week... 10% doesn't seem that out of line to me. It's amazing - the numbers were perfect for the first 2 weeks when there was huge changes, but now, this third good week for HD-DVD must be some sort of typo.
Larry Sutliff 02-03-07, 12:23 PM C'mon, guys, you know the drill. When BD is ahead, the data in these charts is correct and signals the end of the format war. When HD DVD is ahead, then either the charts are wrong or they are "meaningless". ;)
eurotrance 02-03-07, 01:49 PM and one more thing, BD trolls please do not even attempt to post here. If i smell SLIGHTEST trolling, i would not hesitate to report you to the moderator. I am so sicking tired of these people systematically and repeatedly corrupting every positive HD DVD thread, stir up emotion, and create fights with the intention of getting the thread closed (so that the threads would dissapear into thin air).
Yep. I am sick and tired of that BS also. If they won the war, like they say, can't they just shut up and enjoy their fabulous, wonderful, marvellous movies and leave HD-DVD supporters alone ?
eurotrance 02-03-07, 01:53 PM I also think that BD can't go down that far.. that's why I posted that link....
and you are right that any data can be incorrect.....
just frist two weeks you can quite easily recalculate..... and 3rd week somehow don't add ..... there are more post over there which can explain that better than me :)
marek
How is that for a spin ? Somehow if there are positive results for BR, then the war is won, if not, then the data is incorrect... Wow. Now that's objective...
eurotrance 02-03-07, 01:56 PM C'mon, guys, you know the drill. When BD is ahead, the data in these charts is correct and signals the end of the format war. When HD DVD is ahead, then either the charts are wrong or they are "meaningless". ;)
No kidding. I can't believe the amount of BS we have to endure. Doesn't surprise me though, when the format manufacturers/supporting studios use dirty tactics, it's to be expected that the little black sheeps will do the same. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree...
eurotrance 02-03-07, 02:03 PM Guys, any chance the BB promotion a few weeks ago involving free BD movies (Kung-Fu Hustle, Black Hawk Down, Underworld: Evolution and many others) has artificially spiked the numbers in favor of Blu-ray? If it did maybe HD-DVD needs to do its own weekend promotion at BB, CC or other stores to help them move unsold inventory. BB is preparing another big promotion giving away BD's so that will again move inventory and reflect positively on the charts. :(
You are damn right it matters. BB is counted in the Nielsen numbers, and is one of the biggest, if not the biggest, movie retailer in the country. So of course having a 2 for 1 will favor BD in sales, no doubt. Actually, you can be 100% sure that for the week ending february 10, BD will be back on top.
The main problem for Toshiba is that they don't own a movie studio. The 2 for 1 deal is from Sony, which is why the only titles included in that promotion are Sony titles.
eurotrance 02-03-07, 02:10 PM OMG -- i cant believe these net idiots and BDA paid mercenaries spreading false information about the sales with the sole intention of creating media hype.
Very easy for me to believe, they have resorted to dirty business tactics since day 1. Remember how the bad PQ was all Samsung's fault, not their transfers ? Remember how VC-1 has jellyfish artifacts ? Remember how many times the war has been won ? I used to like Sony's products, but now I am so disgusted by their attitude and business practices (what about the rootkits ? Does nobody care about stuff like that ?) that I really hope they go bankrupt.
In case anyone has not been following this, it has now been reported that there was some new subtext added with the newest Videoscan information reflecting HD DVD in the lead once again.
Forum member Grubert has reported that there was an asterisk point made with that data which indicated the numbers "included HD DVD combo discs"
So apparently, the weeks they had BD leading in sales, they were for some reason not counting the sales of any HD DVD combo discs toward the total amount of HD DVDs sold.
How about that?
And I am sure everyone is aware how abundant those HD DVD combo discs are. Check the Videoscan numbers thread if you want to follow the latest.
Michael Mullis 02-04-07, 04:44 PM In case anyone has not been following this, it has now been reported that there was some new subtext added with the newest Videoscan information reflecting HD DVD in the lead once again.
Forum member Grubert has reported that there was an asterisk point made with that data which indicated the numbers "included HD DVD combo discs"
So apparently, the weeks they had BD leading in sales, they were for some reason not counting the sales of any HD DVD combo discs toward the total amount of HD DVDs sold.
How about that?
And I am sure everyone is aware how abundant those HD DVD combo discs are. Check the Videoscan numbers thread if you want to follow the latest.
But that is now usable information. All we hear from the BD side is that every PS3 sold is a Blu-ray player, no matter if it's used or not.
From now on every Combo disc is an HD DVD sale, whether it's bought for SD playback or not. Sounds about right to me.
But that is now usable information. All we hear from the BD side is that every PS3 sold is a Blu-ray player, no matter if it's used or not.
From now on every Combo disc is an HD DVD sale, whether it's bought for SD playback or not. Sounds about right to me.
I know of 10 people personally that got PS3's solely as BD player.
and I believe that is true because of the High Cost of other players.
eightninesuited 02-05-07, 12:53 AM Hey Xboxboi, amazon figures show Blu-ray kicking HD DVD's butt consistently, so why don't you change your sig to reflect that? :cool:
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