Im thinking to myself the specs for the new JVC are looking so good along with the improvement Ive seen with dither and rainbow to 1 chip DLP that soon to come, gone are the days where the masses find themselves taking the plunge to upgrade projectors every year. I think we are at a point where these things are looking good enough that most will sit tight for two or 3 years. Manufactures are going to have to work much harder to differentiate new models to convince projector owners to convince the wife they have to have that new model. For instance while the number may sound big the difference between 15000:1 and 25000:1 is very marginal to the eye. So whats next ?

What will it take for you to jump and take the upgrade path again.

To subsidize I may start selling apparel accessories with every projector. Anyone for a pair of D65 shoe strings with that SilverStar :)

What will it take for you to jump and take the upgrade path again.

:)

Wow, nobody is the US has the new JVC yet and you're already thinking about the next upgrade... ;)

You've made a good point. Iterations beyond the HD-1/RS-1 will be pretty hard to notice, with the probable exception of light output. If you could get to 2000 lumens, that and a High Power would probably qualify as the sole viewing option with lots of ambient light. As far as the manufacturers go though, the 1080P cycle has barely begun, and FP has a big opportunity to expand from an enthusiast base to a broader mass market.

I think your safe Allen.
Presently a lot of buyers are waiting for 1080p to mature a bit before investing.
Low lumens is one of the things that have been groused about.
Some of the things that may be upgraded through the next few years are:
Longer bulb life.
Ability to do CIH (without the additional necessary equipage.)
User friendly adjustments to bring about a isf quality picture.
Might be interesting to see this last combined with new screen tech, to bring about that "looking out the window display".
And this is from a blazing newb. :D

Also becoming more common with new projectors are the incorporating of new high end VP chips normally found only in separate high end Video Processors. Over time the purchase of separate VPs will go the way side. All you will need is a HDMI switcher feeding one cable to your projector.

Kevin, I can see the need for brighter machines :)

This thread, Im not worried but being smart.. looking into the crystal ball. Tony you bring up some good points!

Agreed. I think the final frontier (aside from true 3D) is light output. I would guess that the major manufacturer focus over the next few years (once everyone catches up with JVC) will be making projectors bright enough to realistically be considered as flat-panel TV alternatives.

If the JVC is as good as it sounds, I don't see myself upgrading again until I can get the same picture quality...but with the lights on.

-tony

Also becoming more common with new projectors are the incorporating of new high end VP chips normally found only in separate high end Video Processors. Over time the purchase of separate VPs will go the way side. All you will need is a HDMI switcher feeding one cable to your projector.




And that's way it should be. TV's have gotten way too complicated. Of course, I do realize that that's simply growing pains while shedding the NTSC, low-def childhood. But just like the internet browser should be part of the O.S., video processing and scaling should be part of the TV.

If I get the RS1 or if I wait the next big thing that would make me jump will be LED or laser illumination so I can really start using it as often as I like and not worrying about lamp starts and lamp costs.. Don't lose hope Alan, there will always be a place and a market for AVS (honest, fair and great service)

Over time the purchase of separate VPs will go the way side. All you will need is a HDMI switcher feeding one cable to your projector.

It seems that part is already underway, given the upcoming plans of the big Denons and others. It would also eliminate (already has in many cases) the need for the switcher, as the AVR's already do that as well. Incorporate a good quality VP into a high end Denon and you are down to your one box w/ one wire to PJ solution. I don't really think it's that far off. Right now I have a 2-box solution (VP50 and Denon 4806) which will most likely turn into 1-box soon.

More lumens is the final upgrade path and it always will be. Even if you like a dark image you can still benefit from more lumens and a gray screen.

Alan, until Walmart has 1080p 3000 lumen 10,000:1 projectors on sale for $899, your job is safe.

-Mr. Wigggles

Here are some things I think folks want.

1) More light output, and less fall-off of brightness through at least the first half of bulb life.

2) Faster Start up times.

3) Simple calibration software.

4) Multiple HDMI inputs (eliminating the need for that switcher you mentioned).

5) Faster response times for DILA (DLP still wins here for fast action, sports and games), better faster color wheels for DLP, or cheaper 3 chip DLP.

6) Simple, automatic convergence settings for DILA, and 3 chip DLP.

7) Quieter projectors.

8) Less heat output.

9) Ability to adjust image height for 2:xx within the 16:9 panel.

10) More contrast, without a Iris.

Alan,

I do not think the yearly upgraders were ever the "masses".

I waited about six years to move from the LT-150 to the Pearl, and now I am thinking about moving to the RS-1 on the prebuy list.

With prices coming down on the projectors that take you to the 98% or so level (anything better is chasing the last two percent...) I think that you might find more people upgrading and more people buying more projectors.

Right now, a tiny fraction of people have one projector in their house, and only a tiny percentage of that tiny percentage have two projectors in their house (actually set up, working, and in use).

I bet that as prices of high quality come down, and negatives come down, more poeple will not only get their first projector, but more people will put up a second projector, instead of having a second TV. More Projectors for kids video games in their rooms, more projectors for Joe (and Joe Ann) sixpack. More projectors for everybody. :)

The future is bright. Feel good and be happy. :)

Doug

[SIZE=3]

To subsidize I may start selling apparel accessories with every projector.

Somehow I think AVS is doing just fine :)

What a difference the internet must have made to a upstate NY based projector dealer, your a real success story, congrats!

Greater installation flexibility and convenience:

- Large zoom range (or multiple lenses or adaptors)

- Large horizontal and vertical lens shift

- Wireless connectivity :D

Brighter, quieter, and longer life and/or cheaper lamps would all have major appeal as well.

Brent

What will it take for you to jump and take the upgrade path again.

1.) More Lumen. With these great contrast ratios even a bright projector won't make the blacks "light grey". With real HD resolutions the screens will get larger and larger, requiring more light. I would love to see a "RS-1 like" projector with at least twice the light output. The more, the better. You can always add an iris or a grey filter if it is too bright. Or wear sunglasses. :D

2.) Better lamp technology (more reliable, less heat output). Whatever this might be - laser, LEDs, dunno.

You are right to worry about these kinds of things but we are not there yet.

All products eventually become commodities. You should plan on this happening with projectors. There is still a lot of innovation in the projector world. So long as this continues to occur, your business is safe. People in this thread have already pointed out things they would upgrade for: non-lamp solutions, high lumens, and more flexible mounting options are just a few of these things.

However, the day will come where projectors are a commodity just like the old CRT tv or the computer. The commodity market is defined by small profit margins and high volumes. Try to forsee when this will happen and change your business to be in a position to compete when it does happen. It may be five years away. It may be more. You are extremely well positioned. Don't let the market pass you by.

If I get the RS1 or if I wait the next big thing that would make me jump will be LED or laser illumination so I can really start using it as often as I like and not worrying about lamp starts and lamp costs.. Don't lose hope Alan, there will always be a place and a market for AVS (honest, fair and great service)


I agree 100%. My lamp just blew on Saturday night. A light source that has a stable lumen output for thousands of hours will push many to upgrade.

Here are some things I think folks want.

4) Multiple HDMI inputs (eliminating the need for that switcher you mentioned).

.


I agree with all your points except this one. I don't think most people are going to want to run 3 or 4 20+ foot HDMI cables to their projector. I think most will want the switching done in the AVR allowing one cable to the PJ. A pj with one HDMI input could sell for 100-200$ less than one with 3 or 4 and I suspect people would rather save the moneh.

I think it's great that projectors will get to a point where you can keep one for ten years. It's about fricking time!...Do you actually think people "want" to buy new projectors every year?...Hell, I wish they would come out with 1.3 everything I want right now so I can have it all and never need to buy any av equipment ever again. Heck...I wish there were no middle men at all. I wish I could buy direct from the factory and get a great deal!...Heaven forbid salesmen would have to actually go get a real job and actually "work" (like me). IMHO

I think as the hardware is improving and cost continues to drop will make this type of quality more available to the masses. Also, as new housing develops going forward we will see dedicated rooms for Home Theater as standard and not necessarily upgrades. Margins may get smaller but quantity should make up for it.

Now I agree that light output is important to many people but I don't feel it is the holy grail. I think as the hardware gets less expensive, developers can spend more money on the optics. I think with current hardware, if you improve the optics you could potentially see vastly improved images. Of course this is only my humble opinion.

Who are you kidding Alan? Your business is very safe for a couple of reasons. First, most of the people you sell to are audio/video addicts or equipment junkies. If it is new and has better specs, real or not, then they want it. Second, when digital finally does full fade to black everyone here and over on the CRT section will be making plans to upgrade and you won't have time to watch any movies you'll be so busy. Also, as the prices keep falling and the picture quality keeps getting better then front projectors will become more mainstream and you'll be run off your feet.

Cheers,

Grant

The one thing I don't look forward to: Great 3-chip projectors that are so cheap that any jerk can afford one (sorry to sound elitist).

What are we going to show-off to our friends?

TA

On the original topic, I'd offer the projector market has hit its peak or is just about too.

Its not just the improved quality of projectors that will cause it to limit growth, but large direct view LCD and Plasmas getting bigger with dropping prices. In the past a projector was the only option for a large screen, but now thats changed.

The niche market here may continue to grow, as AVS is very unique on the net as 'the' information resource something that very few sites can claim, but overall the percentage of those using a projector for large screen viewing will drop.

I think alot of people come to the forums here and dont even know that AVS sells equipment. If you could somehow post products and prices like BH Photovideo does online, they seem exempt from normal internet ad rules, with your traffic and reputation, I cant imagine the sales it could generate.

Lower prices and steadily lower margins are a fact of life for all electronics (and computer) resellers. Installation and services are always the great differentiators.

Marc

I like Cain's list. I would single out:

1. Quieter
2. Cooler
3. Higher ANSI

I'm sure my RS1 will be adequate in these areas. But if the next version hit a real homer *any* of these areas (like, *dead* quiet) I'd be pulling out my credit card again.

I agree with most of the posters here, especially about higher light output and longer life light source.

One thing that has not been mentioned and I think is a large obstacle to wider adoption of projectors is the connectivity issues. I have had a number of people visit my HT and really get excited about the possibility of installing one in their den or game room. The mass of wires currently needed to connect the projector to their existing DVD player, cable box, etc. seems to be the biggest issue. A reasonable priced VP.concentrator with wireless connectivity will broaden the base of projector users as much as any other technology improvement.

Broadening the base of users will generate more future business than relying on upgrading existing users with the ever declining price of the technology.

Don't worry Alan, as long as my eyes hold out, you can count on me. :)

Alan how much for a 3D Holographic projector say 16k res? It has to be lifelike for me with no screen to worry about. :D

I would'nt worry about not being able to sell anything for quite some time. :)

Dale

What will it take for you to jump and take the upgrade path again.




Bigger wallet... :p

I'll upgrade for these:

CRT blacks
2160p
2000 lumens
better/longer life light source
shoe box size

gone are the days where the masses find themselves taking the plunge to upgrade projectors every year.
Alan-

Rather than looking for repeated upgrades from the same set of customers, the best thing to happen could be lower prices for high-quality projectors that will highly expand the market and get more people into the real home-theater experience. Kind of the opposite of what Timbelmont said.

Let's face it we're not going to stop buying new projectors, amps, speakers, flat screen TVs and more because the "one" we bought is the one we're going to die with.
As AVS'ers we all suffer from the same disease (some to a greater degree), often referred to as "upgraditis".

No matter how good it is, there's always something better, newer and more appealing around the corner. What that appeal is will be different to each group of buyer but one thing we all still have in common is 'upgraditis'. Never underestimate the power of this affliction.

It makes us do very strange things that seem very normal to us so we can justify buying the latest and greatest upgrade. Like believing we need to move our current projectors into another room where it's really needed like the bathroom, walk in closet, or the garage (how else are we supposed to watch the game when doing an oil change?). I mean when you thought about upgrading to the latest AVR, didn't you think about finding a new home for your current one" You most certainly did and you thought to yourself.... doesn't everyone have a DD5.1 setup in their bedrooms? Of course they do!

Upgraditis :D

No matter what happens - no matter what screen technology is developed or how bright projectors become, there's no getting around the fact that a projected image will wash out to some degree if there is ambient light in the room. The vast vast majority of the population simply cannot or is not willing to watch all of their viewing content in total darkness, so while projectors will almost certainly become more and more popular, they will always trail WAY behind other display technologies in terms of sheer number of sales.

That said, there's no way we're anywhere close to a point where people who ARE willing to make their room good and dark are going to stop upgrading. We know for sure that there is a new and greatly expanded colour standard on the horizon with xvYCC (or x.v.Colour if you're Sony :p ) and Deep Colour. I was really surprised to see Sony's announcement of the first consumer 1080i camcorders with x.v.Colour support as well as the $30,000 70" 1080p LCD Bravia of theirs with x.v.Colour support as well.

In order to deliver the xvYCC gamut, LED or laser light sources are a necessity, so that is a pretty sure bet for what we'll see coming in just a few short years. And when xvYCC LED or laser driven projectors DO arrive, they're not going to be as bright as what a standard UHP bulb can deliver, so the whole "lumen" output issue will rise once again.

Year after year, we'll get brighter and brighter LED or laser driven displays. Year after year, they'll come closer and closer to actually delivering on the full xvYCC gamut (the 70" Sony may support the x.v.Colour standard, but it can still only actually display 102% of the NTSC gamut, not the full xvYCC gamut).

In order to get the LED or laser driven projectors brighter at first, they'll likely need to be overdriven or use several LEDs or lasers per colour. That'll mean a lot of heat and heat means a fan, so year after year as the technology improves, projectors will get quieter and quieter again.

Then there's the issues of eliminating the need for physical wires altogether with a good wireless connection option. There's the issue of getting the projector easily networked so that content can be easily stored on a home's central server and then viewed at any time in any location in the house.

There are so many things that can be improved: there's no fear what-so-ever that we've reached some sort of "plateau" just yet, where consumers can buy a projector today and be happy with it for 15 years to come. If anything, we've barely even started!

Jon

I agree with all your points except this one. I don't think most people are going to want to run 3 or 4 20+ foot HDMI cables to their projector. I think most will want the switching done in the AVR allowing one cable to the PJ. A pj with one HDMI input could sell for 100-200$ less than one with 3 or 4 and I suspect people would rather save the moneh.

Great point ............

:)

====

The bummer currently is that most of these projectors will lose 50% of their rated light output very quickly, then level off for a while. When they start off at 700 or 800 lumens they can drop to 350-400 lumens in a matter of weeks.

Brighter, cooler, and stays closer to peak output for longer.. Sounds like LEDs of something such as that.

There will always be something better -- even if we can't imagine what it will be. Maybe the orgasmatron isn't that far off.

"no matter what screen technology is developed or how bright projectors become, there's no getting around the fact that a projected image will wash out to some degree if there is ambient light in the room."

One thing about lasers/LED's is that their very narrow wavelength (lasers for sure, I'm not sure about LED's) would allow optimizing of bandpass-reflective screens like Sony's Chromavue.

If the screens could be made to reflect only the three very narrow R/G/B wavelengths, they would be essentially black and immune from ambient light.

Short of that there's the aforementioned brute force method of higher brightness and grayer screens.

This of course would greatly expand the market beyond upgraders to all those people with showstopping light control issues.

Alan ,
You may be right but the 4K,2000 lumens,20,000:1 plus sequential PJ isn't here yet. Many , if a device is made that has these specs will buy I bet. I also bet that stability is changes as well as declining prices will help not hurt you.

Art

or will it be llike the printer market, free printer with computer purchase, but charge $50 for an ink cartridge? Buy screen, get PJ for free and spend $1000 a year for lightbulbs?

Pablo

There will be 1,000,000:1 CR projectors. You heard it here first :)

There will be 1,000,000:1 CR projectors. You heard it here first :)

Tryg on his way to pick his up.

http://i127.photobucket.com/albums/p146/CarlosMeat/MollerXM4-02.jpg

Art

Tryg on his way to pick his up.

http://i127.photobucket.com/albums/p146/CarlosMeat/MollerXM4-02.jpg

Art

That must have been a younger Tryg... he had hair! :p

Who cares if technology doesn't advance? Loudspeaker technology is not fundamentally different today than it was 20 years ago, yet that market hasn't stopped booming.

Don't worry Alan, as long as my eyes hold out, you can count on me. :)

Ditto! :D

I would like to see a built-in self calibration system similar to what the photo inkjet printer manufacturers have started to introduce. The system would perform a calibration run every so often to tweek the bulb aging issues and you would not think about it ever again.

The big if here is if the manufacturers actually understood what calibrated means.

Alan:

I think you are quite safe. I can recall as a kid my dad buying a Polaroid camera and it was like martians had landed--this had to be the greateset, end all for cameras, and here it is 07 and I am on my 5th digital camera. I have now bought all 3 generations of Dodge Vipers becuase I just had to go from 400HP to 450 to 510 (and 600 on the way)

Half the fun of getting this crap is the buying experience and getting the latest greatest and you are in the right field for that.

I was thinking about this the other day as well. I think you'll see a few things on the horizon.

For starters, though not as quickly as the computer side, I see resolution as processor speed. The better the resolution the better the projector. Film is about 4k and I would think that the trend to get there will come soon enough. The MPAA might not like it, but studios had to adapt in the 50s to get people back into the theater because of TVs.

Second, I think the introduction of newer technology will help feed the rollover of technology in people's home theaters. Look at SED. It may never see the light of day, but it's a different way of bringing a bright, sharp, and very colorful picture. Projectors I'm sure will introduce newer and more efficient technology to bring a great picture to the screen.

Thirdly, not to count the individual tweaking they can do, but don't forget better optics and CIH. There will be many advances in tweaks with existing lines. Like people have mentioned lumens, contrast, etc.

Lastly, there are simply too many other pieces of the puzzle regarding home theaters. Speakers, audio, 3rd party components, and so on.

I think we'll be fine. But as for projectors, I think people will still upgrade. The one good thing that we have is that the more home theater becomes prevalent, the more need for a company like us there will be. Sometimes it's not about the product, but the message. How many people know you can recreate the true theater experience at home on the budget of a vacation?

That's my two cents.

Richard

Alan - if people are willing to upgrade $10K projectors every 3 years I don't think you'll be out of business any time soon. However you make a valid point with a direct parallel in the computer industry.

Remember back in the days of the 386, 486 etc, you pretty much had to upgrade every couple of years? Why? Because PC's were still frustrating and insufficient no matter how much you spent. Everytime Microsoft announced a newer and more bloated OS, we gladly upgraded our hardware in the hopes that the new OS would be less frustrating and fix problems from its predecessor. And for the most part it was and did.

Nowadays, computers are plenty powerful for most applications, and the OS is more stable than it's ever been. Sure we still have to buy new computers when our old ones are diseased or dead. But now you don't need to upgrade to the fastest and hottest processor to insure reasonable performance. A middle of the road computer will save you big bucks and not have any inherent disadvantages for most people. I've stopped buying top of the line computers probably 5 years ago, and am in the IT industry.

So yes, if the JVC is everything it's cranked up to be, the number of people really demanding a higher end product will be reduced because the digital projectors may no longer be considered frustrating or basically compromised past that price point. The bigger problem will be when less expensive technologies reach 90% of the performance of the JVC. Maybe budget to midpriced LCOS with less expensive lenses, processing or build quality. And once even midpriced projectors give outstanding performance for most people, that's the point that projectors, like PC's for them, become commodities. But I don't see that happening anytime soon - unfortunately. ;)

Some good stuff and kind words from some special people in this thread, thank you all
for the support.

Just looking ahead into the crystal ball. As projection technology moves forward we are seeing
different technology grow closer in performance. At some point the performance will satisfy all
and indeed we will all hang on to our machines longer but I have a solution from within this very forum...the following thread !

Wife says I MUST order a new projector NOW - need advice please!
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=802255

I just have to figure out how we can all share mnn1265 wife :)

Hey Alan,

It is going to be about 6 years since my first projector (g11u) to upgrade (rs1) and I'm glad it is with avsforums. I think the point about washed out pictures keeping the projector out of the mainstream (read: best buy out selling you on projectors) is true, but I think the good performance at lower price will make it easier for more people to get the upgrade bug. If you have people wanting lower fan noise, brighter light sources, etc... you will have a decent customer base.

Who cares if technology doesn't advance? Loudspeaker technology is not fundamentally different today than it was 20 years ago, yet that market hasn't stopped booming.

That's true, but although I upgraded speakers over the years, I stopped after I got the Quad ESL63's (and a high quality fast subwoofer that matches well). I have not yet stopped upgrading projectors and expect there will be several more iterations. In response to Alan's question, I think I would reach the projector equivalent of the Quads if I could buy a dead silent RS1. Wireless would be good, but does not have to be built into the projector.

Alan, I think you found the trick, start selling wifes that will not only allow you to upgrade if you ask enough times, but will actually push you to it.

Let me know when you find ample supply. I am willing to upgrade my single status.

As for going out of business. My guess AV will be big business in my lifetime.

Actually the funny thing is that tech is advancing faster and faster, instead of slowing down. My guess is that we are not even near the climax point.

i think subliminal suggestion has a role to play here. if the images to encourage projector upgrading can be burned into the projector rom and randomly inserted into whatever is playing.... now imagine being able to customize that subliminal message...

I think the next projector post RS-1 would be one that was

A) Cheaper than the RS-1 is now,
B) Have a better lens and better uniformity / tunable shading,
C) > 800:1 ANSI and > 15000:1 on/off contrast on the same projector
D) No dimmer than the RS1 and no worse color wise
E) Better perceived sharpness / MTF than current crop of LCOS projectors (no flames, please - I'm still getting an RS-1.)

I wouldn't care what technology it used, LCOS, DLP, heck even LCD if it met those criteria.

I would consider that a significant enough upgrade.
I know some people will say and it needs to be brighter, but I wouldn't use much more than 500 lumens unless I move to a new home with more room for a larger than 110" screen and a bat cave room so that I don't have to worry about high brightness ruining the simultaneous contrast.

Im thinking to myself the specs for the new JVC are looking so good along with the improvement Ive seen with dither and rainbow to 1 chip DLP that soon to come, gone are the days where the masses find themselves taking the plunge to upgrade projectors every year. I think we are at a point where these things are looking good enough that most will sit tight for two or 3 years. Manufactures are going to have to work much harder to differentiate new models to convince projector owners to convince the wife they have to have that new model. For instance while the number may sound big the difference between 15000:1 and 25000:1 is very marginal to the eye. So whats next ?

What will it take for you to jump and take the upgrade path again.

To subsidize I may start selling apparel accessories with every projector. Anyone for a pair of D65 shoe strings with that SilverStar :)

Big dog, I'll be a customer when the twins come down. I promise! :D ;)

I don't think I'll need to update the screen though. :p

Cliffy

Sorry Alan... the only way I'm upgrading is when a 1080p three-chip DLP with comparable contrast and brightness to my 333 hits the $7,500 mark or thereabouts... 2008-09, maybe???