Saw this posted by beatboy77 in the sales thread but I think the forum should read this article on digitalbits by Bill Hunt. Quite an interesting read.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/#mytwocents



Now then... in high-def news today, Fox and MGM have informed us of the specific Blu-ray Disc titles that they've had to delay temporarily due to production issues. They include Ice Age, Dodgeball, Commando, The Thomas Crown Affair and Dances with Wolves from March, and Tristan & Isolde, Dude Where's My Car?, The Fly, Turistas, Hannibal, Silence of the Lambs and To Live and Die in L.A. from April. New street dates for these titles are expected to be announced shortly, so we'll let you know.

In other high-def news, we've got the first reports on actual unit software sales numbers, though the numbers come from Sony Computer Entertainment America (which has an obvious bias). Next Generation magazine has reported Sony's claim that 439,000 Blu-ray movie discs have sold in the U.S., while 438,000 HD-DVDs have sold. We believe these numbers are format to date. It will be interesting to see if any third party tracking companies release unit sales numbers to confirm Sony's claims. Still, they don't seem out of line with the data we've seen from Nielsen VideoScan recently.

Meanwhile, Newsweek magazine has posted an interesting story recently that has relevance to the HD format war. The piece indicates that the adult film industry is in the middle of its worst software sales slump in years, in part impacted by the sheer volume of free adult content available online. That would stand in sharp contrast to the notion that the adult industry is powerful enough to influence the HD-DVD/Blu-ray format war. In fact, despite the free content that's already online, industry analysts see the most profitable part of the porn market moving from DVD directly to the Internet... bypassing HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc entirely. Several adult producers have told us here at The Bits that the ultimate goal is to deliver high-definition adult content directly to computers and DVRs via broadband, without any physical media involved.

Here's yet another major HD story, and it's breaking news: A hacker or hackers on the Doom9 forums are reporting that they've actually managed to discover the so-called "processing key" that allows them to circumvent the AACS DRM protection on ALL HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc software. Naturally, the AACS Licensing Administrator is "investigating the claims." This could end up being a MAJOR story, so we'll watch how it develops. Reminds me of a classic Scotty quote from one of the Trek films: "The more they over think the plumbing, the easier it is to stop up the drain." You can read more here at InfoWorld and here at engadget.

Finally today, I'm tickled to learn that I'm not the only media analyst that's earned the ire of a select group of... shall we say, passionate?... early adopters on the Net. CNet executive editor David Carnoy has apparently been flamed too by HD-DVD enthusiasts online for daring to suggest that HD-DVD may not have a rosy future. You can read his amusing editorial reaction here.

You know, the funny thing about all this is that I really like both HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc just as video formats. They both deliver fantastic quality and features. But technically and quality-wise, this format war is basically a wash. Therefore, it's reasonable to assume that if this battle is going to be decided by anything, it will be other factors. Like which studios support each format, which manufacturers support each format, what the software and hardware sales trends are, etc. And in each of those areas, Blu-ray has developed a clear edge.

Let's look at these simple facts: Of the 12 major and mini-major Hollywood studios (Fox, Disney, MGM, Sony, Lionsgate, Paramount, New Line, HBO, Warner Bros, Universal, DreamWorks and The Weinstein Company) 9 support Blu-ray, 5 of them exclusively. Only 6 support HD-DVD, just 2 of them exclusively (one studio, DreamWorks, remains uncommitted). Not counting computer hardware or budget brands, Blu-ray Disc has 9 major set-top hardware manufacturers behind it (Sony, Pioneer, Samsung, Philips, Panasonic, LG, Mitsubishi, Thomson, Sharp), while HD-DVD boasts just two (Toshiba and now LG). HD-DVD is an add-on to Microsoft's Xbox 360, while Blu-ray is built into EVERY Sony PlayStation 3. Nielsen VideoScan is reporting that in software sales, Blu-ray has virtually erased the sales lead enjoyed by HD-DVD since the formats were launched, and is now outselling HD-DVD by a 2 to 1 (and growing) margin.

I can understand that some people just love HD-DVD and have had great experiences with it. We have too. I understand that some people hate Sony for perceived corporate arrogance. I'm not a big fan of their tactics either, particularly how they went around the DVD Forum to develop their format. But let's face it - the biggest corporate cheerleader for HD-DVD seems to be Microsoft, which isn't exactly comforting either. All of those issues aside, however, how do you argue with the facts that are clearly becoming obvious - all those things I just mentioned above?

As I said earlier, I love both formats. But I just don't see any circumstance in which HD-DVD can evolve into a viable mass market consumer video format. I certainly can't recommend in good conscience that Bits readers commit to HD-DVD right now. I tell most readers who ask me about the format war to just stick with DVD, and wait until it's all over. But if they're prepared to risk their money now, and are eager to do so, I have to tell them that Blu-ray is the better bet.

Frankly, I wish this format war had never happened. I am SO sick and tired of endlessly debating the merits of one of these formats versus the other. And I'm tired of watching early adopters backbiting each other at every turn. I'd rather just be talking about all the great films being released on disc in high-definition. I truly don't care which format wins, as long as one wins. But as long as there are two competing formats, we ALL lose. Period. The home video industry is not like videogaming. People do not have the patience for two or even three separate formats. They want to go to the store, buy a disc and know that it's going to work when they get home. It's that simple.

I'd hate for the high-definition video format war to have the same outcome as the high-resolution audio format war did. DVD-Audio versus SACD ended in a stalemate, and most people just stuck with CDs or moved to MP3 downloads. But mark my words, if the HD-DVD/Blu-ray war lingers on, that's exactly where we're headed. I think Stephen Colbert said it best: "The winner will be the one you DON'T buy."

For the good of the video industry as a whole, and for the benefit of film fans everywhere, this format war needs to end and SOON. So how long do we all have to wait before we start acknowledging the elephant in the room: One of these formats is already winning... and, for better or worse, it isn't HD-DVD.

Let the flaming commence. Stay tuned.

Another top notch sermon from Father Bill. Good stuff!

Plazman,

You know we are on the kool aid!

FWIW. I agree with him.

However, he never talks about the much higher HD DVD software attacment rate, or that the 2:1 software lead is driven by a 10:1 hardware lead that is costing Sony $B in subsidies. If you take out the PS3, all other BD players are probably selling fewer units than the Tosh.

But if you discount the subsidy aspect of BD and the much lower attachment rate and that HD DVD still has the over all lead in software marketshare, I'd say he is correct.

Fact is, you don't need to have 51% market share to win. You just need to have the better product and better economics and you have an excellent chance to succeed. Better economics is often underestimated in the short terms.... I don't believe Bill and Co. ever grasped that. Any HD DVD supporter said they are going neutral or switching sides recently?

FWIW, I believe not only is Porn having a hard time, but so is the DVD industry in general. Online download is a strategy not limited to porn. Even some portion of hi-def will move online.

But.....I like his sermons. Since they make their way to AVS :)

I agree for the most part as well. I think Bill Hunt's posts are usually pretty logical and rational. (And... even though I own both, I still like HD DVD better.)

I would say I think he faults the format war a *little* too much here though. He says the home video industry is not like the video game industry. I agree he's probably right, be we have no way of knowing for sure. Markets do evolve and the the public's attitude *could* change... maybe.

Also, I personally don't feel the DVD-A / SACD war necessarily played a big role in their failure. To me it doesn't seem the regular consumer was going to be interested in them either way. The hi-res audio simply isn't that great of an improvement for most people on their normal stereos and such. Plus, MP3's and media-less distribution has huge convenience benefits that many probably find grealty overshadow the hi-res quality benefits.

The porn thing I agree with. Online media may be impacting traditional content as well, but I would think it's impacting the adult market far more. There's probably alot of adult consumers who don't mind amassing large collections of traditional content and keeping their DVDs displayed in their living room. Adult conent, being a little more private in nature :), probably doesn't enjoy the benefits of that.

Using his logic Sony has lost the console war, the xbxox has more content and in the last two months out sold the PS3 by a decent margin. The PS3 was behind the Wii and the xbox.

Perhaps Sony should declare victory for BD, which they have and use the same reasoning to admit defeat in the next gen console war and move on...

So, you can make the case Sony is winning the video format war and losing the game console war, or admit both next gen format wars are in the early stages....

But if you discount the subsidy aspect of BD and the much lower attachment rate and that HD DVD still has the over all lead in software marketshare, I'd say he is correct.

I don't understand this comment. Isn't HD-DVD also subsidized (or at least was...)? Which I guess leads me to thinking, does it matter about attachment rate and subsidies when one side is apparently selling more?

I pretty much agree with Bill.

The studios and retail channel want this war to end. The Blu-ray exclusive studios (like Disney) believe that support of Blu-ray is the way to accomplish that, and that going neutral would just prolong the format war.

Universal is in a truly interesting position. They are the one participant that can make a unilateral move that will in a single stroke end the format war while increasing their short term and long term profits. Just go neutral and watch the $$ roll in.

Bill has sometimes indicated that he thinks DVD has a big future. While I agree that DVD won't go away for a while, I also think that the market is getting ready for a replacement.

People are buying HDTV's like crazy, with 1080P the new buzzword. They will be noticing that the DVD's just aren't as good as the HD programming they are seeing. Once the format war is over, the surviving format will ramp up much more quickly than some people may think.

Buy 1 Get 1 Free...wonder if that helped at all...hmmm....I would have to say Yes on that, especially since people are going nuts and buying craptacular movies just because they are $10.

FWIW. I agree with him.

However, he never talks about the much higher HD DVD software attacment rate, or that the 2:1 software lead is driven by a 10:1 hardware lead that is costing Sony $B in subsidies. If you take out the PS3, all other BD players are probably selling fewer units than the Tosh.

But if you discount the subsidy aspect of BD and the much lower attachment rate and that HD DVD still has the over all lead in software marketshare, I'd say he is correct.

Fact is, you don't need to have 51% market share to win. You just need to have the better product and better economics and you have an excellent chance to succeed. Better economics is often underestimated in the short terms.... I don't believe Bill and Co. ever grasped that. Any HD DVD supporter said they are going neutral or switching sides recently?

FWIW, I believe not only is Porn having a hard time, but so is the DVD industry in general. Online download is a strategy not limited to porn. Even some portion of hi-def will move online.

But.....I like his sermons. Since they make their way to AVS :)

HD-DVD's strategy will, at best, lead to it being the new Laserdisc.

Blu-ray, long term, are aiming to replace DVD, so short term losses are acceptable.

'Any HD DVD supporter said they are going neutral or switching sides recently?'

Owners certainly have, CE's and studios won't be far behind.

If you take out the PS3, all other BD players are probably selling fewer units than the Tosh.

Only by a few percentage points, according to some actual numbers released that show an edge of like 52% to 42% for stand-alone Hd-dvd versus blu-ray players.

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.asp?layout=article&articleid=CA6413168

I don't understand this comment. Isn't HD-DVD also subsidized (or at least was...)? Which I guess leads me to thinking, does it matter about attachment rate and subsidies when one side is apparently selling more?

I would not be surprised if the HD DVD players are / were subsidized some, but imagine it's no-where near the subsidies of the Playstation 3.

Video game consoles are subsidized to ridiculous levels when they are released. They have to have high-end tech that will last for 5+ years, yet have a price tag where moms & dads are willing to buy, and young people can afford to buy. The subsidies can pay off since game software has a high profit margin.

Sony's risk is that the PS3 probably needs to be susidized more than any other console in history due to it's BD drive and other leading edge hardware. Despite that, it's being outsold significantly by both Microsoft & Nintendo, and it's uncertain how many PS3 owners will also become big BD-video purchasers, as opposed to strictly gamers.

If Sony's subsidies can last, and the BD attach rate is high... the payoff could be really big - dominance in the next gen DVD war and continued dominance in the video game market. If things go badly... Sony could bleed itself dry by continuing to throw funds at the PS3.

HD DVD subsidized around 50K or so players that were phased out within 6 months or so. Whereas, Sony is increasing production of the PS3 and by a conservative estimate would need to subsidize PS3 to the tune of $6B dollars to generate $1B in gross software revenue from movies.

A higher attachment rate means that you need fewer hardware to sell the same number of movie titles.

BD wouldn't have a problem if they had standalone players that sold as well as the Tosh. They don't. And that is a problem that no one wants to talk about.

BD does not have a viable business model right now. They have content. That is great. But to win the war, you gotta show profitability. Remember the .coms? Many were great ideas, but they didn't have sustainable models. Yet, in the short term they showed massive revenue growth % and got billions in investments. Those that survived were the ones that were able to generate profits.

What is Sony's profit model here? Everything is riding on the PS3. Guess what. It costs Sony $400 every time someone buys one. They are giving these away. They are losing more on each console than what the xbox costs and twice what it costs Nintendo to produce a Wii. So Sonys is losing more on a PS3 than twice the cost of a Wii, which is selling twice as fast!!!

If I were Sony, would I be concerned. You bet!

If you take out the PS3, all other BD players are probably selling fewer units than the Tosh.



And if you take away Michael Jordans jump shot hes an average ball player. If you take away Donald Trumps money then hes just like us. That statement makes just as much sense.

Sony, be concerned?!

I assure you that when BD finally reigns supreme Sony will make back the current PS3 subsidizes cost in spades. See, it takes money to make money, something that Sony understands well.

Recommending neither is the smart move from Bill. Don't want readers to feel shafted from your comments.

HD DVD subsidized around 50K or so players that were phased out within 6 months or so. Whereas, Sony is increasing production of the PS3 and by a conservative estimate would need to subsidize PS3 to the tune of $6B dollars to generate $1B in gross software revenue from movies.
Wow. 'Conservative', heh. Interesting figures.

But if you discount the subsidy aspect of BD and the much lower attachment rate and that HD DVD still has the over all lead in software marketshare, I'd say he is correct.
Unimportant.
a) Nobody expected the PS3 to contribute the same software attach as a standalone.
b) Considering the installed base advantage is closer to 5:1 (including PS3 and X360 HD), and software sales are 2:1, thats a great result.
c) Standalone attach rates haven't and can't be obtained for either format now that PS3+ X360 HD have thrown their hats in the ring.
d) The software lead to date has evaporated and will quickly reverse. Whats the point in even bring it up.
In a month will this argument change to 'you have to consider their equal LTD sales means Blu-ray isn't winning', and then in three months 'BD is only ahead in LTD sales by 50%'?

Remember the .coms? Many were great ideas, but they didn't have sustainable models. Yet, in the short term they showed massive revenue growth % and got billions in investments. Those that survived were the ones that were able to generate profits.
Ridiculous, a more meaningful comparison is to the PS2 as a format.

But if you want to really go down that path of misleading discussion; Amazon.com disproves your theory. They set out with a deliberate business model that they wouldn't be profitable for many years (8 years, as it turned out, only started being profitable after the .com bust), and are now amongst the most profitable websites today.

It costs Sony $400 every time someone buys one.Where did you get that number? That is the highest claim I recall seeing for this and as you probably know, the vast majority of them that they are selling are the 60GB version. Are you claiming that they are losing $400 on the $599 model?

--Darin

Almost everyone involved in this has been driven by selfish motivations, corps and consumers.

Sony this and Sony that ... the only reason many people hate a Blu-ray win (including so called neutral players) is because they have already sunk a lot of money in HD-DVD. That is it. I understand, I have now invested a lot in Blu-ray. But please, take this one for the team gracefully. In the long run it is better for most everyone who hasn't already spent a fortune on HD-DVD to have only one format. Things could have turned out differently: PS3 buyers might not have bought movies. But that didn't happen. So that is that.

Sony this and Sony that ... please skip the saving face act. I realize if one has invested money in something that died quickly the act of 'well it was better but J6P is stupid' helps one look less foolish. But no one was foolish, just unlucky. Still the face saving whine is a boring read. For the team.

FWIW. I agree with him.

However, he never talks about the much higher HD DVD software attacment rate, or that the 2:1 software lead is driven by a 10:1 hardware lead that is costing Sony $B in subsidies. If you take out the PS3, all other BD players are probably selling fewer units than the Tosh.

But if you discount the subsidy aspect of BD and the much lower attachment rate and that HD DVD still has the over all lead in software marketshare, I'd say he is correct.

Fact is, you don't need to have 51% market share to win. You just need to have the better product and better economics and you have an excellent chance to succeed. Better economics is often underestimated in the short terms.... I don't believe Bill and Co. ever grasped that. Any HD DVD supporter said they are going neutral or switching sides recently?

FWIW, I believe not only is Porn having a hard time, but so is the DVD industry in general. Online download is a strategy not limited to porn. Even some portion of hi-def will move online.

But.....I like his sermons. Since they make their way to AVS :)

Why take away the ps3?

I remember reading somewhere that the PS3 was around $1000 - $1100 to produce for Sony.

On another note, last Q which ended Dec 31st, the game division had a reversal of around $1B dollars. I am not sure if they attribute marketing costs to that unit, but the per unit PS3 sold would be astronomical and they did guide that losses in that division would be higher this Q and for the rest of the year.

Also, not not sure what impact the PS3 has on the PS2 sales. AFAIK, Sony makes money on the PS2 hardware.

Anyway, if Sony can keep increasing PS3 supply and keep prices low BD will be in good shape saleswise for sure. No other vendor seems to have an appitide to subsidize like Sony....

Using his logic Sony has lost the console war, the xbxox has more content and in the last two months out sold the PS3 by a decent margin. The PS3 was behind the Wii and the xbox.

Perhaps Sony should declare victory for BD, which they have and use the same reasoning to admit defeat in the next gen console war and move on...

So, you can make the case Sony is winning the video format war and losing the game console war, or admit both next gen format wars are in the early stages....

sony is in it's infant stage with PS3, look back at X-Box after it's launch...

it was horrid. overheating... etc etc.. need I go on?

the Console war hasn't even started. So don't bring that stuff in here.

the only reason many people hate a Blu-ray win (including so called neutral players) is because they have already sunk a lot of money in HD-DVD. That is it

Really? Care to prove that? I think you highly underestimate people's dislike for all things Sony, and for OBVIOUS reasons.....

I remember reading somewhere that the PS3 was around $1000 - $1100 to produce for Sony.

No one knows this figure except for Sony, and they're not telling. If it's anything like the PS2, they never will. I saw the analyst estimate you're referencing, but there were some problems with their numbers, especially the cost/Cell unit. No one knew what IBM's chip yield was at the time, and I don't think we do now either. The only thing they said was that they were increasing the chip yield significantly faster than any other chip they've fabbed before (this was pre-launch). That's an interesting statement, and if it's true, significantly drives down the estimated cost, as the Cell was one of the largest costs in the analysts estimate.

I remember reading somewhere that the PS3 was around $1000 - $1100 to produce for Sony.

iSupply did a tear-down of the PS3 in November and concluded that the street price for the components of the PS3 was $805.85 for the 20GB version, and $840.35 for the 60GB version.

http://www.isuppli.com/news/default.asp?id=6919

This is based on open market pricing, however. As a full-fledged CE who can manufacture not only the units themselves, but also the components, Sony's true cost is probably lower. Add to that significant economy of scale (I'm guessing they will have produced 3 million units by the end of this month) and I think Sony is actually losing a lot less than people think. Still losing money per unit, undoubtedly, but not $400+.

On another note, last Q which ended Dec 31st, the game division had a reversal of around $1B dollars. I am not sure if they attribute marketing costs to that unit, but the per unit PS3 sold would be astronomical and they did guide that losses in that division would be higher this Q and for the rest of the year.
This was an expected loss for Sony. They'd be thrilled to see it higher from more PS3 sales. :) It's not like they can't afford the short term losses.

Also, not not sure what impact the PS3 has on the PS2 sales. AFAIK, Sony makes money on the PS2 hardware.
That's quite correct. The PS2 is, and remains a profitable venture, and Sony rakes in additional money from the PS2 software sales (royalties on every disc). Unlike Microsoft's Xbox and Nintendo's Gamecube, Sony has very deliberately NOT shut off their production pipeline for the PlayStation 2. This is a VERY smart move for them, since it ties users into a profitable channel for them, builds brand loyalty, and more importantly... what are all these PlayStation 2 buyers going to do when they're ready to upgrade? Toss all their favorite PS2 games in the closet? Of course not. They'll go buy a PlayStation 3, which will happily play their PlayStation 1 and 2 games as well as PS3 games, Blu-ray movies, online content, and more.

Anyway, if Sony can keep increasing PS3 supply and keep prices low BD will be in good shape saleswise for sure. No other vendor seems to have an appitide to subsidize like Sony....
I've been watching Toshiba's pricing scheme on their HD-DVD players, and am now pretty convinced that the HD-A2, like the HD-A1 before it, is heavily subsidized. HD-DVD has been strutting about for the past year talking about how "inexpensive Chinese players" will be arriving soon, and while I fully expect those units to arrive sooner or later, I remain unconvinced that Toshiba has managed to slash production costs below $400 per unit.

If the HD-A2 isn't subsidized, why haven't the Chinese manufacturers already jumped on the bandwagon to reap profits? Could it be because they know that there is no price point at which they can be competitive and profitable? If not, then why have they not already arrived? I've looked for another explanation, and have come up empty, and so for me, at least, it seems very likely that low priced HD-DVD units are not arriving any time soon. I won't rule out the possibility that I am wrong... but I cannot find any evidence to support the idea that lower labor costs are going to magically make a unit which originally cost $674 to produce down to sub-$400 levels.

Word in the video game industry Sony has aggresive plans to revise the PS3 hardware to reduce chip costs. EE+GS is to be replaced by software emulation, 0.65nm node die shrink for cell chip (with a 45nm die shrink by 2009), other I/O chips to be replaced, and other modifications. All in order to reduce PS3 production costs and allow future pricing flexibility. So production costs are the first order of business for SCE. This has been part of Sony's strategy all along. Sony can recoup their investment with PS3 & BD sales/royalties. Sony did the same with PS1 & PS2. Both were subsidized at the beginning but were quite successful in the end. Oh yeah continuing software sales from >100m PS2s help as well. Can't say the same for Xbox1.

I remember reading somewhere that the PS3 was around $1000 - $1100 to produce for Sony.

On another note, last Q which ended Dec 31st, the game division had a reversal of around $1B dollars. I am not sure if they attribute marketing costs to that unit, but the per unit PS3 sold would be astronomical and they did guide that losses in that division would be higher this Q and for the rest of the year.

Also, not not sure what impact the PS3 has on the PS2 sales. AFAIK, Sony makes money on the PS2 hardware.

Anyway, if Sony can keep increasing PS3 supply and keep prices low BD will be in good shape saleswise for sure. No other vendor seems to have an appitide to subsidize like Sony....

Sony is subsidizing the PS3 so that it can make back money on both Movie AND Game software. They are positioning the PS3 as the central hub of a home entertainment system.

People were saying the same thing about the PS2 with the emotion engine etc etc and look how that turned out. And DESPITE these subsidies and the laptop battery fiasco and the torrent of negative press, Sony is still making money hand over fist (check out their financial statements). Their stock just went up 3.2% and reached its highest point since 2002.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SNE

So quit talking like Sony's gonna have to go bankrupt because of subsidizing a couple million PS3s.

If the HD-A2 isn't subsidized, why haven't the Chinese manufacturers already jumped on the bandwagon to reap profits?A very likely reason is because it takes time to make players and they need a reference platform. I wouldn't expect the Chinese companies to be able to jump in today with players ready to sell. Even Toshiba slipped their 2nd gen near the end of last year.

--Darin

I remember reading somewhere that the PS3 was around $1000 - $1100 to produce for Sony.


Well I remember reading that iSuppli Corporation (http://www.isuppli.com/news/default.asp?id=6919) estimated the 60GB cost $840.35 to make.

This forum would be a much better place if everybody cut back on the weasel words.

Getting down to the nitty gritty, I think Bill is right. For everyone's sake it is best if we only have one HD format, whichever it is.

BD wouldn't have a problem if they had standalone players that sold as well as the Tosh. They don't. And that is a problem that no one wants to talk about.Just a couple of post back someone provided information that said sales were about equal in numbers for standalone units. For BD standalones to catch-up to HD DVD while costing twice as much should tell you something. For those that do not want to invest as much in a BD player can always get the PS3. It was and is a great strategy by the BDA and seems to be working well.

PM to Bill and his response posted with his permission

Kinda fleshes out his POV



Bill

I respect you, and I don't want to publically argue with you.

I think your a great service to out hobby.

I just disagree with you on the economics here and the level of support in the CE industry for Blu-ray.

Kosty

Well, I really do appreciate that and your words are very kind. Sorry - didn't mean to sound too snippy. I've been hearing an earful from the usual tonight, as you can imagine.

For what it's worth, despite continued complaints that I have a bias, I really truly don't care which format wins. I just think it's very important for one format to win this thing and soon, or we're all screwed. To the degree that I've been positive about Blu-ray, it's because I've argued since the very start of this that the format that was likely going to win - quality issues being equal - would be the format with the greater studio support.

The price issue will equalize itself by the end of the year, I suspect, or shortly thereafter. The thing that has shocked me most since CES is just how aggressively the HD-DVD folks seem to be trying to drive their format's prices as low as possible by bringing cheap Chinese manufactures into their fold. The arrival of cheap Chinese players in the DVD industry is what spelled the end of its profitibility. This strikes me as a major desperation play, and it tells me that the HD-DVD camp is making a last ditch effort not to lose. The problem is, I think the best they can hope for at this point is to keep Blu-ray from winning. And if they shift to that strategy, both formats crash and again, we all lose.

Price sensitivity isn't an issue in the first year or so of a new format - it's mostly just the early adopters who are interested at that point anyway. And by the time a wider consumer base is starting to get interested, 2nd and 3rd generation players have entered the market and they're inevitably cheaper. Price will be a factor eventually, but right now what's keeping most people on the sidelines is that few people other than early adopters are willing to risk picking the wrong format and losing their investment. I think it's also why some people are so agressively sticking to their guns on the HD-DVD side.

I really do love both formats. I honestly do think both are great and deliver the goods. But there just isn't room for two great formats.

By the way, feel free to share any of my comments with others if you like.

Thanks again for your kind PM, Kosty. It's nice to know there are rational open-minded folks here at AVS.

Bill Hunt is far more informed on this subject than 99.9% of the hobbyists on this (or any other) ht board. For those who arent aware of the history of the bits you're missing the point of his insights. In the past he has correctly predicted the niche status of LD , DVHs and the failure of divx (the fox-Circuit City debacle with pay per watch disks- NOT the codec). If Bill sees this war heading a certain way then it likely is. Actually it's not complex at all. The majority of content providers decide this by releasing a majority of titles on a chosen hd format. The porn thing is as much a red herring as the beta vs vhs talk---both arguments based in the past in a very different ht world and have no bearing on the current war.

Bill Hunt is not so much making a prediction as he stating his opinion and real fear that both formats may fail.

To prevent a failure of both HD formats like SACD, he is expressing his preference that Blu-ray should survive based on its current lead in 2007 disc sales, CE and studio support.

I have said several times in several posts about porn and the "format war" that it is a non issue. I am not an expert by any means. I based it on personal experience which I am being forthright. Most people who watch porn do not give a good damn about porn in HD, really they don't. A few here said they would like to see porn in HD, but the few here that are A/V enthusiasts are probably less than 1/100 of 1 percent of people who watch porn. Again, as I said to be blunt and crass and make a point, people who want to get porn, want to get on and get off, period. Downloading off the net provides that element of access to porn.

As far as the PS3 is concerned, Sony made a genius marketing decision with the PS3. It is not losing the format war or going anywhere. It has boosted Blu Ray tremendously. The PS3 has sold almost 2 million units in N.A. and Japan in 3 months since it's induction. Europe, the rest of Asia, Australia, Africa and the rest of the world markets go on sale starting in a month. These markets, although MS friendly because of PC's, are NOT Xbox or American product friendly as much as Sony and the PS systems are.

Although I initially thought the "war" might go on indefinitely and even that two HD formats could exist beyond a format war, I now believe in a year Blu Ray will be the dominating format. This article, the microcosm of events at AVS forum, trends, marketing and sales numbers are indicating a push towards Blu Ray and it is undeniable.

I am an openly admitted "fanboy" and take it how you want, but IMO, the war although not over yet or even close to decided, is heading towards one direction more than another. Time is now the only factor barring some unknown surprise.

I also still maintain that in a minimum of five years to ten, downloading will be king and not disc media, portability, high speed internet on the fly and microchips, will make it happen.

I have said several times in several posts about porn and the "format war" that it is a non issue. I am not an expert by any means. I based it on personal experience which I am being forthright. Most people who watch porn do not give a good damn about porn in HD, really they don't. A few here said they would like to see porn in HD, but the few here that are A/V enthusiasts are probably less than 1/100 of 1 percent of people who watch porn. Again, as I said to be blunt and crass and make a point, people who want to get porn, want to get on and get off, period. Downloading off the net provides that element of access to porn.

As far as the PS3 is concerned, Sony made a genius marketing decision with the PS3. It is not losing the format war or going anywhere. It has boosted Blu Ray tremendously. The PS3 has sold almost 2 million units in N.A. and Japan in 3 months since it's induction. Europe, the rest of Asia, Australia, Africa and the rest of the world markets go on sale starting in a month. These markets, although MS friendly because of PC's, are NOT Xbox or American product friendly as much as Sony and the PS systems are.

Although I initially thought the "war" might go on indefinitely and even that two HD formats could exist beyond a format war, I now believe in a year Blu Ray will be the dominating format. This article, the microcosm of events at AVS forum, trends, marketing and sales numbers are indicating a push towards Blu Ray and it is undeniable.

I also still maintain that in a minimum of five years to ten, downloading will be king and not disc media, portability, high speed internet on the fly and microchips, will make it happen.

All good points.

I agree that we need one format. I have been beating that drum since adopting HD movies. I picked Blu-ray for the reasons outlined in this post. It is our best chance at a real winning format.

If you want 4 previously viewed blu-ray for 20 bucks at blockbuster or 5.99 blu-ray movies at Best Buy in 5-10 years, we need a winner in this format war, and now most people agree that format is Blu-ray.

I also agree that downloading will be the format after Blu-ray, but that is another story

Bill is correct. You can deny it all you want, but HD DVD was a stop-gap until Blu-ray gots it bearings.

not that is funny :p and not in a good way, a stop gap :confused:

I pretty much agree with Bill on all this also, and as I have said all along Porn will mean nothing to BD/HD, I disagree however that HD-DVD will not be going away anytime soon, both these formats are on the fringe in a niche area, neither will come close to replacing DVD anytime soon, HD-DVD has so far had top end software and players with issues, the exact opposite for BD, nice stable error free players and software slightly lower in quality

HD-DVD has the name recognition and the forum behind it, it is not going anywhere anytime soon, nor do I think it should or vice versa, DVD-A and SACD coexisted because they are a niche, HD movies will be exactly the same for years IMHO

HD-DVD is the better format so far and people who are enthusiasts know it is better(in regards to what matters most, visuals and audio), don't let a bunch of mouth breathing gamers with PS3's bother you, they tilt the scales with BD sales figures, it doesn't represent the true crowd for this stuff ;)

what can HD-DVD do to strengthen their position:

-lower prices of combo discs to max 24.99$ street price(BD doesn't even have combos) for those releases, stop shipping SD DVD :D
-get their players functioning 100% perfect, no CUE, no DVI issues, no skipping/freezing or lockups
-start releasing big guns and more software, things were good last year but 2007 has been a bust :(
-get triple layers going and give each HD release the maximum PQ/AQ and tons of extras
-give as many HD releases possible 24-bit TrueHD tracks

-Gary

what can HD-DVD do to strengthen their position:

-get triple layers going and give each HD release the maximum PQ/AQ and tons of extras
-give as many HD releases possible 24-bit TrueHD tracks

-Gary

The average consumer is not going to know the difference between a 30GB disc and a 51GB disc.They just want the content.

Again, the average consumer doesn't have the capability of truHD.

A big part of this market is going to be people that want excellent PQ and audio coming out of the TV.

HD DVD should just release HD/Combo discs from now on. That would be the best marketing tool they could use.

I will disagree that HD DVD is better. They both have strengths and both have weaknesses, but I think Blu Ray has more potential. It has been that way from inception.

thats what everyone is missing, making HD releases for the general public is stupid, they aren't the ones buying them right now, they (HD) have a niche crowd that will buy plenty, please their niche and things will go from there ;)

the point is not to tout 45GB, it's to please folks like me with the best P/A Q and give people that want extras what they want, they could even start using the combo disc for this also being that HD has DVD9 in it's spec, the 9GB side all extras

HD needs to step up their audio also because 24-bit PCM is taking a bite out of them :(

HD without a doubt is the king of PQ since launch, this is easy to see ;)

-Gary

The average consumer is not going to know the difference between a 30GB disc and a 51GB disc.They just want the content.

Again, the average consumer doesn't have the capability of truHD.

A big part of this market is going to be people that want excellent PQ and audio coming out of the TV.

HD DVD should just release HD/Combo discs from now on. That would be the best marketing tool they could use.

I will disagree that HD DVD is better. They both have strengths and both have weaknesses, but I think Blu Ray has more potential. It has been that way from inception.

thats what everyone is missing, making HD releases for the general public/average consumer is a waste of time, they aren't the ones buying them right now, they (HD) have a niche crowd that will buy plenty, please their niche and things will go from there ;)

the point is not to tout 45GB, it's to please folks like me with the best P/A Q and give people that want extras what they want, they could even start using the combo disc for this also being that HD has DVD9 in it's spec, the 9GB side all extras

HD needs to step up their audio also because 24-bit PCM is taking a bite out of them :(

HD without a doubt is the king of PQ since launch, this is easy to see ;)

-Gary

Gary,

Do you not feel that the Toshiba players crush blacks?

Also, I am not trying to beat down the Samsung player but you are basing your opinion on a player that is universally known at having some sharpness issues. Have you tried a Sony, Pioneer or Panasonic player on your setup?

I owned the Samsung for 8 months and have had the Sony for 2 now. The Sony player is better.

Gary is correct. Below is a post I made in the HDDVD forum. (sorry for the double post)

I like to read the bits to get information about DVD and the HD formats. I think that his mix of opinion into his news should be taken with a grain of salt.

Here's my take.

1. I believe that both formats are going to go the way of the Laserdisc. Niche videophille formats that will sell in low numbers compared to DVD. People who don't make home theater a hobby aren't interested in shelling out $$$ for a format that to them looks marginally better than DVD. These aren't the people that spend 10,000 plus for an AV hobby. These people bought an HDTV for the great picture on Discovery HD or ESPNHD. My friends who bought an HDTV are all stoked about sports, not HD movies on disc. Most of them tell me why buy the movie for double the price of DVD when I can record it on my DVR on HDNET? Hard to argue that.

2. Bill forgot to mention that even though those companies have given written support for BR, are all of those manufactures manufacturing players? How many models does each company have out? Have those stand alone players outsold the players in the HD-DVD camp?

3. I know that the PS3 is a nice BD player, but can a game machine hold up a video format? Do most people that purchased a PS3 also have a home theater?

4. How many great titles have come out on BD that would appeal to the home theater enthusiest?

5. BD is having replication issues. Bill can't hide that fact. Will there be enough copies of POTC to meet demand? What other titles will have to be cancelled to make room for that one title?

YMMV

HD-DVD is the better format so far and people who are enthusiasts know it is better(in regards to what matters most, visuals and audio), don't let a bunch of mouth breathing gamers with PS3's bother you, they tilt the scales with BD sales figures, it doesn't represent the true crowd for this stuff ;)

Hi Gary,

The problem with this logic is that HD DVD has almost nothing to do with how a movie's audio and video are (and I'd argue Audio is generally equal or better from the BR studio's). That's almost entirely format independent -- whatever HD DVD can do, BR can do. It's all about the studios and transfers. If King Kong or Hulk was put on BR, it would look just as good. Now, maybe you realize this, but it seems there's a lot of people out there that don't (so a lot of this post might not really apply to you, but that paragraph made me think of this).

I'm not really sure why people put so much weight into that, considering if Universal switched to neutral and started porting their HD DVDs to BR, they'd look exactly the same.

So, really, how is HD DVD actually winning in terms of PQ/AQ in the strictest sense? It's Universal/Warner, essentially, that's winning the PQ/AQ war between all the studios (on average, at least) -- format is more or less irrelevant to PQ/AQ... it's all up to the studios. That seems to be a common misconception around these parts.

The fear that if BR won, we'd somehow be lesser off in the PQ/AQ department is silly (I'm not sure if that's a fear of yours, but it's definitely a fear of some people's, judging by the loony-toons behavior I've seen). If HD DVD won, what makes anyone think that Fox, Sony, Disney would somehow kick up their transfers a notch and release better stuff on average? Likewise, if BR won, we'd be getting the same fantastic transfers we've seen on HD DVD, just on BR now.

I agree with Bill in that as long as one format wins, we're okay... but if neither wins, it'll be a very sad day. I just happen to think that BR is the best and quickest way to go about it, and logically, I don't know how people can bet against BR when looking at all the information available.

The problem with this logic is that HD DVD has almost nothing to do with how a movie's audio and video are (and I'd argue Audio is generally equal or better from the BR studio's). That's almost entirely format independent -- whatever HD DVD can do, BR can do. It's all about the studios and transfers. If King Kong or Hulk was put on BR, it would look just as good. Now, maybe you realize this, but it seems there's a lot of people out there that don't (so a lot of this post might not really apply to you, but that paragraph made me think of this).

I'm not really sure why people put so much weight into that, considering if Universal switched to neutral and started porting their HD DVDs to BR, they'd look exactly the same.

So, really, how is HD DVD actually winning in terms of PQ/AQ in the strictest sense? It's Universal/Warner, essentially, that's winning the PQ/AQ war between all the studios (on average, at least) -- format is more or less irrelevant to PQ/AQ... it's all up to the studios. That seems to be a common misconception around these parts.

What a refreshing post. I agree with you 100% and don't understand why so many people continue to attribute the PQ and AQ to the format and not the studio.

A very likely reason is because it takes time to make players and they need a reference platform. I wouldn't expect the Chinese companies to be able to jump in today with players ready to sell. Even Toshiba slipped their 2nd gen near the end of last year.

--Darin
I'm not sure Toshiba's HD-A2 and HD-XA2 are a good example of how long it takes to get a new player to market.

The HD-A1 unit, after being torn down by iSuppli, is basically a modified PC running the stripped down Windows CE architecture, which is why the startup times for the HD-A1 are so horrendously long.

When Toshiba released the HD-A2, they internalized a lot of these functions into integrated hardware, resulting in faster load times (and probably some mild cost reductions). At least, that's the general concensus of what they did, as there hasn't been a teardown of the HD-A2 for confirmation as yet. That's a lot of re-engineering, nonetheless.

If the HD-A2 design (or some prototypical variant thereof) could be used, you would expect that similar units could be mass produced in fairly short order. The HD-A2 is Toshiba's lowest cost current player, and has been released since October 1, 2006. That's 4 and a half months ago, and had Toshiba taken some time and drawn up a reference from their HD-A2 design, surely that design is in the hands of the HD-DVD CE partners by now.

Yet since CES we've heard nothing from Shinco, and only a vague announcement from Lite-On about having a unit released in the second half of 2007, after they release their Blu-ray player. It does not seem like these manufacturers are particularly enthusiastic about HD-DVD.

If there really was money to be made on the HD-A2 or similar generation designs at below $400, you'd think these companies would be climbing all over themselves to compete for consumer dollars as soon as possible before other manufacturers jump in and drive down their margins due to price wars. IF such a design is profitable below a $400 price point. Looking at the behavior of the 3rd party CEs, not just Shinco and Lite-On, but also the "weak support" Blu-ray CEs like LG, there appears to be no incentive to jump into the market. If there were, we should already be seeing such units, as I assert there has been more than sufficient time to develop such a unit and bring it to market if the baseline reference has been available for 5 months - or at least an announcement of such intent.

And if you take away Michael Jordans jump shot hes an average ball player. If you take away Donald Trumps money then hes just like us. That statement makes just as much sense.

should have read "take away Michael Jordan and Chicago doesn't win the title". ;)

Personally I'm all for a video game console leading the path to victory. HD-DVD had the same opportunity, MS simply didn't want to go that route (at first)unfortunately. I for one would have happily paid $100 more for my 360 to have a HD-DVD drive, DVD Audio, Web browsing and HDMI.

well, ill say that i started out as a big hd-dvd supporter. I only bought blu ray after the ps3 came out ( since i wanted a ps3 anyway), but since buying it, ive gone to almost exclusively buying for blu ray. I just get the sense that blu ray is dominating and that hddvd wont be around after the end of the year. I still purchase some movies on hddvd, like hollywoodland and clerks 2, but if its available for blu ray, i now buy it for blu ray.

Well I remember reading that iSuppli Corporation (http://www.isuppli.com/news/default.asp?id=6919) estimated the 60GB cost $840.35 to make.

This forum would be a much better place if everybody cut back on the weasel words.

The analyst firm claims that its preliminary estimates the combined materials and manufacturing costs of the PlayStation 3 is $805.85 for the model equipped with a 20GB hard disk drive (HDD), and $840.35 for the 60GB HDD version. The estimates do not include additional costs for elements including the controller, cables, packaging, freight as well as profit for resellers, such as BestBuy


So, let's agree that the overall subsidy is greater ....

Plazman, You have to include the margin of the retailers. Which I would hope would be at least around $100 per unit.

So maybe the Sony subsidy would be around $350.

Plazman, You have to include the margin of the retailers. Which I would hope would be at least around $100 per unit.

So maybe the Sony subsidy would be around $350.


Yes. I was estimating $400 based on dealer costs + cables, freight etc....I was going by Gruberts estimate. That even if we take the lower number, we are still talking about a decent subsidy in a short period of time.

I believe, excluding the effect of the depreciation of the yen, Sony earned around $1B Dollars in profit in the entire last Q - and this was a Q which included the Christmas season and some few successful movies.

Plazman,

I just looked at the isuppli breakdown. It appears that 7 of the more expensive componets were manufactured by sony. So if those are retail prices for each individual piece, the cost to manufacture them must be considerably lower. Maybe the subsidy isn't as big as we think?

Maybe the subsidy isn't as big as we think?
Exactly the point I was making above. :)

On top of being able to manufacture their own components, Sony has by now manufactured over 3 million PS3s. That's a lot of units to defray non-incremental costs like R&D, plus a lot of volume by which to reduce the cost of raw materials.

The senior VP of Sony has mentioned recently (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=22507) that they plan to be break-even on the division by March 2008, and hinted that such projections could (read: probably will) include a price cut. That suggests to me that Sony indeed expects the PS3 production subsidy to largely fall by the wayside within the next 12 months in terms of more efficient manufacturing and reduction in cost of materials, and there's no reason not to expect Sony to have reaped some economy of scale already on at least some of those expensive in-house constructed components.

Plazman, You have to include the margin of the retailers. Which I would hope would be at least around $100 per unit.

So maybe the Sony subsidy would be around $350.

Margin on retailers is around $5 dollars for a console -- it's almost at cost for them, oddly. No lie.

Places sell the consoles because software sales that they actually make some money on (games are $5-12 margin for retailers -- not a lot, but it could be worse). Peripherals (controllers, cables, etc.) is where margins are a bit higher, iirc (for both the retailer the the producer).

HD-DVD's strategy will, at best, lead to it being the new Laserdisc.

I'd say just the opposite. Uni is going all or nearly all Combo. That seems a move at making their discs viable mass market commodities. Maybe, DVD can't just be crushed and replaced...? So....maybe....why try...serve up both.

If this war did just end, whichever format/s (?) would be in a Laserdisc type minority format status for years to come in any case. Nobody can really win at today's player prices. There is low ceiling capping sales.

When I see single-disc HD-DVD's and BD's at Busted Buy selling for $35-$40....el disco grande nuevo, we're already there on the LD-ish beach....expensive players and discs, we are there. Folks who happen by and see such prices will kiss off HD and gettin' 'em back won't be easy.

....the next big question...?.....unversal players or universal discs....? Wham, bam, Warner, thank ya mam....or not? HD en toda......or bust?

What a refreshing post. I agree with you 100% and don't understand why so many people continue to attribute the PQ and AQ to the format and not the studio.

I'm in on ya'all sentiments too but I'm about ready to add Disney to the list of Studios I'm impressed with.

Gary,

Do you not feel that the Toshiba players crush blacks?

Also, I am not trying to beat down the Samsung player but you are basing your opinion on a player that is universally known at having some sharpness issues. Have you tried a Sony, Pioneer or Panasonic player on your setup?

I owned the Samsung for 8 months and have had the Sony for 2 now. The Sony player is better.

I owned the Samsung for many months also, it was and still is a nice player, I would never disagree with anything said to the contrary

I have used the Sony in my system for a few days about 1 month ago, I liked it so much that I ordered one from Vanns that will be here monday ;) :D

on crushing blacks, no Toshiba players crush blacks as long as everything is working fine which means connected via HDMI to HDMI(I am going into the VP50), I also would say that NO HD software has had any crushed blacks either, HD-DVD black detail is seriously amazing

on the other hand I have seen crushed blacks from Sony Mpeg2 releases only, remember when it (was it Mr Spears) was reported that Sony's mpeg2 encoder was crushing blacks, I would agree with this based on my eyes only

I use a Gamma calibrated CRT projector, blacks and their details are important to me very much so, screwed blacks are no fun and Toshiba needs to shake ass and get that problem corrected for DVI inputs, they could probably easier accomplish that on future players with dedicated DVI and HDMI outputs like some Denon DVD players ;)

like I said IMHO:

Hardware BD > HD
Software BD < HD

although things are evening out :)

-Gary

Couple of points:

1. iSuppli says the 20GB PS3 is around $100 more to produce than the Tosh A1. So, IMHO, one of them is wrong!

2. In the next few Q, we'll get an idea of what these units are costing Sony. Just because something is produced in house doesn't make it cheaper. Isn't Sony cutting back on chip manufacturing for this exact reason?

The point is that the Chinese offer HD DVD a price point that cannot be matched by BD. Potentially. I don't see Sony going down to the 299 price point. It would be a disaster....

The new Sharp appears to be another player aimed for the high end.

Gary is correct. Below is a post I made in the HDDVD forum. (sorry for the double post)

I like to read the bits to get information about DVD and the HD formats. I think that his mix of opinion into his news should be taken with a grain of salt.

Here's my take.

1. I believe that both formats are going to go the way of the Laserdisc. Niche videophille formats that will sell in low numbers compared to DVD. People who don't make home theater a hobby aren't interested in shelling out $$$ for a format that to them looks marginally better than DVD. These aren't the people that spend 10,000 plus for an AV hobby. These people bought an HDTV for the great picture on Discovery HD or ESPNHD. My friends who bought an HDTV are all stoked about sports, not HD movies on disc. Most of them tell me why buy the movie for double the price of DVD when I can record it on my DVR on HDNET? Hard to argue that.

2. Bill forgot to mention that even though those companies have given written support for BR, are all of those manufactures manufacturing players? How many models does each company have out? Have those stand alone players outsold the players in the HD-DVD camp?

3. I know that the PS3 is a nice BD player, but can a game machine hold up a video format? Do most people that purchased a PS3 also have a home theater?

4. How many great titles have come out on BD that would appeal to the home theater enthusiest?

5. BD is having replication issues. Bill can't hide that fact. Will there be enough copies of POTC to meet demand? What other titles will have to be cancelled to make room for that one title?

YMMV

this is how things are, people just won't admit it, this is right on Russ ;)

I also agree on the releases so far, Sony is mostly pushing Joe-Six-Pack movies by and large, HD-DVD has went more for film-buff movie lover types, would some 20 year old kid rather buy Deer Hunter or Stealth ? :rolleyes: i'm not much older than that and everyone prolly knows which one I would rather have :) , but I am not normal, nor is AVS and it's crowd or either of these formats

no video game console is ever gonna win any format war, it is not a serious HT item(not bashing the PS3 at all, its just a console instead of a piece of HT gear)

-Gary

busted Buy? LOL! :D

-Gary

I have said several times in several posts about porn and the "format war" that it is a non issue. I am not an expert by any means. I based it on personal experience which I am being forthright. Most people who watch porn do not give a good damn about porn in HD, really they don't. A few here said they would like to see porn in HD, but the few here that are A/V enthusiasts are probably less than 1/100 of 1 percent of people who watch porn. Again, as I said to be blunt and crass and make a point, people who want to get porn, want to get on and get off, period. Downloading off the net provides that element of access to porn.

I agree and to add to it: the access to porn is completely different than it was back in the VHS days. So which ever media it chooses to support, the impact on the format standard won't be nearly as important.

As far as the PS3 is concerned, Sony made a genius marketing decision with the PS3. It is not losing the format war or going anywhere. It has boosted Blu Ray tremendously.

A lot of people tend to dismiss the PS3 as a gaming system and not count it in the actual Blu-ray numbers because there's no way to tell if it's being used for games or movies, but the fact is the PS3 is in the homes, like it or not, that puts Blu-ray in their homes and that carries a lot of weight.

I'll say it again, it is so funny that all the BD supporters are quoting Bill Hunt and agreeing with him after he was completely slammed this summer on this very board for making negative BD comments.

Now that he is saying pro BD things, everyone here loves Bill.

The lack of consistency and selectivity on both sides is rather amazing.

Icemage

The senior VP of Sony has mentioned recently that they plan to be break-even on the division by March 2008, and hinted that such projections could (read: probably will) include a price cut.

Sony has said a lot of things about the ps3 that have turned out to be wrong - e.g., number of units available at launch.

Gary,

glad to see you picked up the Sony player. I have very pleased with the unit. I have seen some rumors that we might get a TruHD update but no DTS hd ma because of bandwidth problem? Of course that is just a rumor from another avs member.

I could care less about the TruHD but the DTS HD MA would be extra nice.

I'll say it again, it is so funny that all the BD supporters are quoting Bill Hunt and agreeing with him after he was completely slammed this summer on this very board for making negative BD comments.

Now that he is saying pro BD things, everyone here loves Bill.

I'll say it again, it is so funny that all the HD DVD supporters were quoting Bill Hunt and agreeing with him after he was completely slammed this summer on this very board for making negative HD DVD comments.

When he was saying pro HD DVD things, all the HD DVD supporters loved Bill.


Sony has said a lot of things about the ps3 that have turned out to be wrong - e.g., number of units available at launch.From Oxford Press: lot >pronoun informal 1 (a lot or lots) a large number or amount; a great deal.

The lack of consistency and selectivity on your side is rather amazing.

on the other hand I have seen crushed blacks from Sony Mpeg2 releases only, remember when it (was it Mr Spears) was reported that Sony's mpeg2 encoder was crushing blacks, I would agree with this based on my eyes onlyGary, IIRC, Spears noted the Sony MPEG-2 encoder did not encode levels below Blanking or above White reference. I believe he used the term "Clipping", I would prefer the term "Truncated". There is a big difference in truncating the digital levels and "Crushed Blacks" (normally a misadjustment of the “Master Black" level control on the camera CCU. Anyway, I have made several post on this subject that you may find useful. Click here (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9585228&&#post9585228) and here (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9614386&&#post9614386) and here (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9497699&&#post9497699) .

Gary, IIRC, Spears noted the Sony MPEG-2 encoder did not encode levels below Blanking or above White reference. I believe he used the term "Clipping", I would prefer the term "Truncated". There is a big difference in truncating the digital levels and "Crushed Blacks" (normally a misadjustment of the “Master Black" level control on the camera CCU. Anyway, I have made several post on this subject that you may find useful. Click here (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9585228&&#post9585228) and here (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9614386&&#post9614386) and here (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9497699&&#post9497699) .

thanks :)

-Gary

Gary,

glad to see you picked up the Sony player. I have very pleased with the unit. I have seen some rumors that we might get a TruHD update but no DTS hd ma because of bandwidth problem? Of course that is just a rumor from another avs member.

I could care less about the TruHD but the DTS HD MA would be extra nice.

the Sony is a really nice high-end player, which I am a sucker for, made in Japan with concerns on analog audio, can't wait to get mine :)

DTS-MA would be nice, but the 1506Kbps core from these via coaxial/optical is darn tootin amazing :eek: ;)

-Gary

the Sony is a really nice high-end player, which I am a sucker for, made in Japan with concerns on analog audio, can't wait to get mine :) Congrats on the Sony BD player. My Sony DVP–S7000 (1st G) DVD player has been a work horse for 9-1/2 years. I have the Panasonic DMP-BD10 BD player.


DTS-MA would be nice, but the 1506Kbps core from these via coaxial/optical is darn tootin amazing :eek: ;)Agreed, some titles have a real knock-out (DTS) sound track.

wendell,

Do you know what e.g. means. It means for example. An example, is by definition one instiantiation of a larger set of objects. I did not feel the need to provide an exhaustive list of Sony statements regarding the PS3 that turned out to be incorrect. If you would like one other example, it would be the release date that slipped a couple of time. I was simply pointing out that believing Sony, or any other corporate statement about a product, should be taken with a grain of salt. If you wish to believe that everything that Sony says is the literal Gospel truth, and if you wish to believe that Sony is infallible, that is your choice.

I also dont see where I have been inconsistent, nor have I been selective.

Yes, HD DVD supporters are just as guilty when it comes to supporting Bill, and I have said that in other threads. That doesnt make them correct. IMO two wrongs dont make a right, although you may disagree.

Sloppy thinking is sloppy thinking no matter where it comes from.

For example, you seem very proud of the DVD Empire sales percentages and quite a few people have claimed that these numbers prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that BD has won. OTOH, Sony (remember the company that you consider infallible) claims that less than 1 million discs in both formats combined have been sold. What this means is that the units of individual movies sold are small, and hence percentages are not necessarily valid indicators of the overall war. So, if you go to the DVD wars and look at movies in the top 10, you have 1 for HD and 2 for BD. Now you could spin this and say that BD has twice as many movies in the top 10 as HD, but that is not really an accurate portrayal. In a different thread, someone said that Crank sold 7,500 copies in BD and about half that in HD. Again, you could use percentages and spin this one way.

Again though, the absolute numbers are so small that they are not really significant. This "war" as many would call it wont be decided soon. Do you really think that Universal is going to switch because of a difference of a few thousand movies? These companies have a significant amount of money invested in their respective formats and they arent going to jump ship, one way or the other, any time soon.

Margin on retailers is around $5 dollars for a console -- it's almost at cost for them, oddly. No lie.

Places sell the consoles because software sales that they actually make some money on (games are $5-12 margin for retailers -- not a lot, but it could be worse). Peripherals (controllers, cables, etc.) is where margins are a bit higher, iirc (for both the retailer the the producer).

Yup, retailers make almost nothing on hardware sales. This works for all videogame hardware. The money is in the software sales. Remember the PS1 platform had a lifespan of >10 years and the PS2 are expected to also have a long lifespan as well.
Both went through numerous hardware revisions to cut production costs.

Nothing is stopping the chinese from releasing blu-ray players in the future either. Kjack might know more on when we can expect low price blu-ray to arrive.

I also dont see where I have been inconsistent, nor have I been selective.You need to go count the times you have bashed Sony. I would call that selective.

Can you tell us of your great electronic designs, manufaturing and marketing successes.


Sony (remember the company that you consider infallible)You do not have a clue as to whom I may or may not consider infallible.


Do you really think that Universal is going to switch because of a difference of a few thousand movies? These companies have a significant amount of money invested in their respective formats and they arent going to jump ship, one way or the other, any time soon.From another post on 02-15-2007:

1. Studio Canal goes Neutral. SC announced "Lend Me Your Hand" and "Babel" for release on Blu-ray. By far the biggest event of the day. This leaves only Universal and Weinstein as the remaining Blu-ray hold-outs.

Wendell,

You need to go count the times you have bashed Sony. I would call that selective.

I have not "bashed" Sony as you put it. I have pointed out where Sony's statements and reality dont match. That does not constitute bashing, unless of course one believes that Sony is infallible and that Sony's statements are always correct. On the other hand, you could of course have a Stalinist type perspective where the party line must be adhered to and nothing negative can be said about BD or Sony, because they are the Establishment. Hence, negative comments about might be considered bashing. In either case, for you to consider what I have done bashing is indicative of a narrow orthodoxy. I have not, unlike some HD people claimed there is a conspiracy on Sony's part or anything like that.

Can you tell us of your great electronic designs, manufaturing and marketing successes.

What a specious argument. If you really believe that, then the only board that would exist here would be the thread on people asking insiders questions. Based on your logic, the only people who can comment about HT related topics are those Engineers and Marketing types.

You do not have a clue as to whom I may or may not consider infallible

This is not an entirely accurate statement. Your posts here are consistently of the such that BD is nearly perfect, and that nothing "negative" can be said about BD or Sony. This would imply that you believe that Sony is infallible.

Lastly your quote about Studio Canal is a non sequitar. My question was about Universal and not Studio Canal. Again, sloppy thinking, or a rather sad attempt to change the subject.

what is happening with BD?
See the figure in the middle of thread.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=806283

what is happening with BD?
See the figure in the middle of thread.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=806283

If you're talking about the sudden drop in rankings, then I would say it has more to do with amazon and dvd sales than anything else...

Look at the HD DVD rankings, they are consistant with the BR ones -- they both fell, meaning it's likely something pushed them (DVD sales or something amazon did).

I wouldn't worry much.

fronn,

I know, but here is the thing. Quite a few people have argued that HD DVD is dead and sales are crashing, etc etc, based on Figures like this. So, I wanted to see the reaction to this. Would BD supporters "explain it away" and yet still maintain that the lower rankings for HD DVD were indicative of its demise. In other words, I was looking to examine intellectual honesty and consistency.

Personally I think the whole DVD wars site is rather pointless, because the absolute numbers are so small that even small changes can have a large impact on percentages and thus the importance of the rankings, etc are rather marginal.

Several people are touting the 15% difference in sales at DVD Empire as definitive proof that HD DVD is doomed. But, depending on the absolute number of discs sold that 15% could represent only 10 or 15 actual discs. One doesnt know, but it would be patently absurd to claim one Format was dead because one online site sold 15 more BD discs than HD DVD discs.

fronn,

I know, but here is the thing. Quite a few people have argued that HD DVD is dead and sales are crashing, etc etc, based on Figures like this. So, I wanted to see the reaction to this. Would BD supporters "explain it away" and yet still maintain that the lower rankings for HD DVD were indicative of its demise. In other words, I was looking to examine intellectual honesty and consistency.

Personally I think the whole DVD wars site is rather pointless, because the absolute numbers are so small that even small changes can have a large impact on percentages and thus the importance of the rankings, etc are rather marginal.

Several people are touting the 15% difference in sales at DVD Empire as definitive proof that HD DVD is doomed. But, depending on the absolute number of discs sold that 15% could represent only 10 or 15 actual discs. One doesnt know, but it would be patently absurd to claim one Format was dead because one online site sold 15 more BD discs than HD DVD discs.


seriously, wtf is up with u HD DVD fanboys? Before CES, all you could hear is how the OMG HUGE sales lead that HDDVD enjoyed would entice Disney/lionsgate to go neutral. Now that BD has almost caught up and is about to pass in total sales, you're talking about sale delta of "10 to 15 actual discs" between Br and HD DVD.

Congratulations on the purchase of a PS3 :)

Enjoy....

I know, but here is the thing. Quite a few people have argued that HD DVD is dead and sales are crashing, etc etc, based on Figures like this. So, I wanted to see the reaction to this. Would BD supporters "explain it away" and yet still maintain that the lower rankings for HD DVD were indicative of its demise. In other words, I was looking to examine intellectual honesty and consistency.
Only the die-hard Blu-ray supporters are claiming anything of this nature. I consider myself a "marginally Blu" supporter.

The sales rank drop on Amazon for BOTH formats should be alarming everyone. I suspect that it is something that Amazon has done, rather than there being less sales of any particular title. I comment further on this below.

Personally I think the whole DVD wars site is rather pointless, because the absolute numbers are so small that even small changes can have a large impact on percentages and thus the importance of the rankings, etc are rather marginal.
I agree that the whole idea of averaging the rankings is a preposterous way to arrive at an accurate view (it obviously isn't mathematically, since sales rank is not an absolute indicator of sales volume).

Several people are touting the 15% difference in sales at DVD Empire as definitive proof that HD DVD is doomed. But, depending on the absolute number of discs sold that 15% could represent only 10 or 15 actual discs. One doesnt know, but it would be patently absurd to claim one Format was dead because one online site sold 15 more BD discs than HD DVD discs.
I don't think HD-DVD is dead, and I think most of the rational supporters on both sides of the fence would agree that the format war is not over. However, the momentum remains with the discs with the blue cases for the time being. Regardless of whether you want to claim that HD-DVD is doing poorly, average, or even well, there are zero indicators that HD-DVD has kept its lead from last year.

seriously, wtf is up with u HD DVD fanboys? Before CES, all you could hear is how the OMG HUGE sales lead that HDDVD enjoyed would entice Disney/lionsgate to go neutral. Now that BD has almost caught up and is about to pass in total sales, you're talking about sale delta of "10 to 15 actual discs" between Br and HD DVD.

The point I took from his comments is that HD-DVD and Blu-ray are both toy formats. DVD is a real format, on the other hand.

mcgarnagle,

I do believe that you need to learn to read what is said, instead of reading what you want to read. Again, your response implies a Stalinist type mentality where disagreement is seen as subversion and being traitorous to the party line. Your response is also indicative of the style of debate that America has sunk to - instead of debating the merits, the person is attacked.

Where, in any of my posts, did I in any way support HD DVD? Pointing out errors in an argument is different than supporting something. Several people, and several threads, have proclaimed the war over that BD won, largely because of percentage differences in sales ranks and so forth. The point is, is that this is logically falacious, on both sides.

For example, quite a few people claim that PS3 buyers are scarfing up movies and that PS3 sales are going to win the tide for BD. However, Sony's own numbers pose a problem. They claim that roughly 490,000 BD discs have been sold. On the other hand, several people have claimed that roughly 2 million ps3 players have been sold.

If one assumes that ALL 490,000 discs were sold since the relase of the PS3, and if you assume that no owner of a stand alone BD player ever bought a movie, what this means is that roughly 1/4 of PS3 owners bought 1 BD movie. This is hardly a ringing endorsement of BD by PS3 owners.

It is far to early to tell what is going to happen with this situation and where it is going. Furthermore, based on the logic of several BD supporters who saw a drop in HD DVD rankings as evidence of HD DVD demise, these people would have to start proclaiming that BD is dead also.

lWhat a specious argument.I asked a simple question . An answer of "I have done AB&C or I have not done any of those things" would have worked for me.

Lastly your quote about Studio Canal is a non sequitar. My question was about Universal and not Studio Canal. Again, sloppy thinking, or a rather sad attempt to change the subject.
Do you really think that Universal is going to switch because of a difference of a few thousand movies? These companies have a significant amount of money invested in their respective formats and they arent going to jump ship, one way or the other, any time soon.Next time use the term "this company".

Just curious, do you own a Blu-ray player?

Wendell,

I have repeatedly said that I dont own a player of either type. If I were to pick it would be HD DVD simply because there are more Universal titles that I want to see than Sony/Fox.

Just FYI,

it seems as if Fox Pathe is going HD DVD. Which like your link for Studio Canal doesnt mean much in the grad scheme of things.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=806136

Lastly, your comment about engineering/marketing is a bit disingenious. The context clearly implied something different. If you wish to know what I do for a living, I have said on a few occasions that I am a research neuroscientist, but I recently moved and I am now in research administration.

I agree with Bill Hunt on this. There must be a winner if the high def format is to survive. Blu-ray has the studio support and thats all that counts. So, Blu-ray should be the winner. I encourage everybody to stop buying HD-DVD stuff because the support is just not there. Please let this format war end FOR THE LOVE OF GOD!

SED

I encourage everybody to stop buying HD-DVD stuff because the support is just not there

But the same logic applies. If everyone stopped buying BD and started buying HD DVD, the companies would probably flip. Fox might not because they like the extra security of BD-J just as they initially preferred DIVX.

SED



But the same logic applies. If everyone stopped buying BD and started buying HD DVD, the companies would probably flip. Fox might not because they like the extra security of BD-J just as they initially preferred DIVX.

well I guess if you cut out half his response as you did then yes the same logic could apply, sort of, in a half arsed manner anyways.

SED



But the same logic applies. If everyone stopped buying BD and started buying HD DVD, the companies would probably flip. Fox might not because they like the extra security of BD-J just as they initially preferred DIVX.


Thats a good point. Ok, both formats are able to deliver great picture and sound but HD-DVD has 30GB of space and Blu-ray has 50GB of space. So why not choose Blu-ray over HD-DVD? Plus, blu-ray has the PS3 which is a great machine and it would be sad to see it loose its Blu-ray playing potential. This is all my opinion of course, but it is a logical reasoning that i'm using... nothing else. If HD-DVD were the only format, I would gladly use it, but Blu-ray technically tops it. There isnt room for two formats as Bill Hunt said.

brian,

In a way true, but then again, I am not sure that we want just one winner right now. There is a thread where some people are complaining about the quality of Fox's recent releases. Other people are arguing in the thread that they dont expect perfection on every release, they just want it to be better than SD.

Think about the logic of that - Buy BD because it is "better" (re: marginal improvement over) than SD. That is not a ringing endorsement of the format. Besides, if BD were the only format, just think of what Fox might do with releases.

If HD fails, it will have at least forced Sony and others to step up the quality of their releases. Imagine what kind of crap would have been released if Sony didnt have any competition.

sed

Thats a good point. Ok, both formats are able to deliver great picture and sound but HD-DVD has 30GB of space and Blu-ray has 50GB of space.

I dont see what space necessarily has to do with it for the vast majority of movies. Yes, there will be some that would require the extra space, but they are few and far between.


Plus, blu-ray has the PS3 which is a great machine and it would be sad to see it loose its Blu-ray playing potential.

I am confused at multiple levels. I am sure that the PS3 is a fine machine, and I am sure it is a great gaming machine. However, if HD won, the PS3 would still play BD discs, just as HD DVD players will continue to play HD discs. You would not lose that capability. Remember, the PS3 is a gaming machine first and foremost. As I said in a previous post, Sony itself states that roughly 490,000 BD discs have been sold, and people say that there are more than 2 million PS3 players sold. What this says is that, no matter how you want to slice it, the MAJORITY of PS3 users dont care about BD as a movie format. Remember, this is Sony speaking about the numbers.


This is all my opinion of course, but it is a logical reasoning that i'm using... nothing else. If HD-DVD were the only format, I would gladly use it, but Blu-ray technically tops it.

Yes, it is logical, but Studio support is fluid, and that was the point I was making. As to the technical aspects - I dont watch specs, I watch movies, and right now, the specs dont make that much of a difference rather the quality of the encode, etc are more important.

There isnt room for two formats as Bill Hunt said.

That may be true, but the question is, why not?

Hi, longtime lingerer, first time poster!

A few observations - I own both a PS3 and the HD-A2 so I'm happy either way.

I have a hard time see the PS3 failing, even though Sony knowingly loses money on every unit they sell. The same thing was said about the PS2 - they lost money on those at first too, and it ended up being the best selling console of all time. I suppose it's possible the remaining Blu-ray only Hollywood studios could begin releasing in HD-DVD as well, and that would definitely be bad for Blu-ray, but the PS3 will be around. Sony has vast amounts of capital behind them, they can endure the drought longer than some might think.

Right now, the games available on PS3 are pretty underwhelming, whereas the 360 has a full stable of good stuff and the Wii is selling like hotcakes. Give the PS3 six to twelve months for game content to roll out and Sony may start to pick up steam. I know I'm not alone in the fact that I bought a PS3 exclusively for movie watching purposes, although I may get my kids a game or two at birthdays/holidays.

Regarding the AACS work-arounds muslix64 and arnezami found on HD-DVD discs, it's rather naive to think that's going to hurt the HD-DVD format. While content owners won't like it, consumers sure do. Knowing you can back up your purchased (read: "rented" for many people) HD-DVD discs would drive a lot of sales. Regardless, AACS is also used by Blu-ray, so until/unless BD+ is the savior, Blu-ray is in the same boat and you can be assured work-arounds/cracks will be found in BD+.

Anyways, I love the new HD content, Netflix can't send them to me quickly enough! :D From a purely anecdoctal perspective, on those films Netflix carries in both formats, I notice the availability of HD-DVD discs seems to be a little better than the Blu-ray versions. That leads me to believe either they're not stocking as many copies in the Blu-ray format or there's more people renting the Blu-ray format.

brian,

In a way true, but then again, I am not sure that we want just one winner right now. There is a thread where some people are complaining about the quality of Fox's recent releases. Other people are arguing in the thread that they dont expect perfection on every release, they just want it to be better than SD.

Think about the logic of that - Buy BD because it is "better" (re: marginal improvement over) than SD. That is not a ringing endorsement of the format. Besides, if BD were the only format, just think of what Fox might do with releases.

If HD fails, it will have at least forced Sony and others to step up the quality of their releases. Imagine what kind of crap would have been released if Sony didnt have any competition.

I hope you know I was just kidding aside from the point of logic he seemed to imply of more studio support.

I agree, I do want the best possible. It's really hard to take peoples opinions though when they differ so much on different titles. I've loved the PQ on some movies where others haven't (like Superman Returns) as well as not been impressed on some (like Stargate) where other people were.

It's hard to really know if the competition from another format has made sony's titles better or not. Good guess but no real way of knowing. in general though competition does lead to such benefits, within the same format or competiting.

brian,

I agree that it is hard to find a consensus when people's opinions vary. However, sometimes consensus does emerge, as in the case of the 5th element.

BTW, did you ever find the 37" on sale?

brian,

I agree that it is hard to find a consensus when people's opinions vary. However, sometimes consensus does emerge, as in the case of the 5th element.

BTW, did you ever find the 37" on sale?

True, very good point. But the buyers get a replacemet one day if they go through the hassle (doubt many would outside of AVS), lol

Kind of surprised to hear you aren't enjoying a player yet on either side. I feel like that I can afford to be on one side at least, even though I want titles on both.



Yeah, Fry's actually today has a sale, $599 for the 37" Olevia. Not sure if it is the same you got but looks pretty good. Here is the link in case anybody else is interested:

http://newspaperads.mercurynews.com/ROP/ads.aspx?advid=32664&adid=4137996&subid=15079055&type

brian,

That is the set. Congrats, that is a better deal than I got. It does look pretty good, and HD looks really good.

As to the player. Well, I may pick one this weekend, but I just moved (about a month ago) from Texas to Hawaii, and it was expensive (as is housing). Plus, my stuff just arrived from the mainland, and I still havent set up the HT yet.

brian,

That is the set. Congrats, that is a better deal than I got.

As to the player. Well, I may pick one this weekend, but I just moved (about a month ago) from Texas to Hawaii, and it was expensive (as is housing). Plus, the stuff just arrived from the mainland.

Thanks. Well I haven't picked it up yet, but hopefully tonight or tomorrow (Box will fit in the woman's car, doubt it will fit in my Integra). It's great to see prices just continually going down which is probably the only reason it is even less now.

Awesome move to Hawaii, congrads.

yeah it is a nice set, I hope you enjoy it.

The move is good, and I landed a sweet job, but the move was unexpected and largely for family reasons, but it is working out in the end.

yeah it is a nice set, I hope you enjoy it.

The move is good, and I landed a sweet job, but the move was unexpected and largely for family reasons, but it is working out in the end.

Awesome, great place to land a job. Well enjoy the long weekend!

Cheers,
B

you have a great weekend also. Enjoy the set.

I agree with Bill Hunt on this. There must be a winner if the high def format is to survive. Blu-ray has the studio support and thats all that counts. So, Blu-ray should be the winner. I encourage everybody to stop buying HD-DVD stuff because the support is just not there. Please let this format war end FOR THE LOVE OF GOD!

You need to understand what is going on.
Some people say that Bill Hunt knows what he is talking about since he has been in this Industry for years. Do You believe this???

Now he is crazy or naive.
Everybody knew from the beggining that this was going to be an awful situation for companies and consumers. Everybody knew also that this is going to take a long time. Since the last twelve months the studio support for HD DVD has no change.
The only problem here is that they do not want Sony to bleed and they are starting to notice that is taking more than what they tought.
The company that is losing as a today ( Toshiba and HD DVD ) should be the ones asking BR supporters to surrender...but what we have here is this Hunt guy being used by Sony to accelerate the process.
If he knows what he is talking about ...he should know that Toshiba did not get in this awful situation to surrender after a couple of months of lower sales.
HD DVD suporters will not stop buying in the product.

Why is he doing it now?
Do you think that sales at this point are that high for Blu Ray?
It is too early...

In a way true, but then again, I am not sure that we want just one winner right now. There is a thread where some people are complaining about the quality of Fox's recent releases. Other people are arguing in the thread that they dont expect perfection on every release, they just want it to be better than SD.
How is Fox's quality of encoding going to do anything? The way to force Fox to do better is to give them competition. That can happen with OR without HD-DVD. There are 5 other major studios with huge catalogs that can release content, and if Fox underperforms, people will simply boycott the titles until they release a better version.

Or are you suggesting that Fox would somehow magically produce better encodes if they were releasing on HD-DVD?

There is no difference in the capabilities of the encodes on either format, except for the maximum runtime and constraints. Blu-ray can do both AVC and VC-1 at higher bitrates than HD-DVD without sacrificing audio quality in the process. What's there to argue here?

Think about the logic of that - Buy BD because it is "better" (re: marginal improvement over) than SD. That is not a ringing endorsement of the format. Besides, if BD were the only format, just think of what Fox might do with releases.

They'd be doing the same thing. See above.

If HD fails, it will have at least forced Sony and others to step up the quality of their releases. Imagine what kind of crap would have been released if Sony didnt have any competition.
That much, at least, I agree with. The competition from the format war has made sure both sides bring their best weapons to the table, as quickly and as inexpensively as possible.

However, now that the hardware is now installed in homes, the scene is set, and neither side can make a substantial change without risking alienation of users (Blu-ray has been up-front about the BD-Live updates coming this summer, but imagine the backlash if/when HD-DVD tries to add a TL51GB configuration to the spec if the discs cannot be made backwards compatible with existing hardware).

This war does need to end. As AV enthusiasts, we want the best movies we can find, at the best possible price, and with the most selection. While this format war continues, we might continue to see improvements in quality, but without mass market penetration, we will never see the selection of movies we really want.

I hope everyone knows the Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD very well may never end. Look at DVD-R vs DVD+R. Sure, the stakes are larger here and it affects more people, but the scenery is similar. The hardware manufacturers compromised and now dual format drives are the de-facto standard. LG is only the first of many dual-format players, there's chips available right now to hardware manufacturers that read Blu-ray and HD-DVD.

We live in a very different world now than we did in the 70's and 80's during the Betamax/VHS heyday, particularly from a technological perspective. Betamax lived on after VHS "claimed" the victory, albeit in very small, specialty circles. One format doesn't necessarily need to fold for consumers to benefit and I really so no need or benefit for Universal/MS/Intel to move to Blu-ray backing. If they're profitable, why switch? Now, if they're unprofitable, that's another story, and their execs will surely rethink their strategy.

I do think Sony will fight this one to the bitter end if absolutely necessary, otherwise they could be 0 and 2 in major CE flight plans, and nobody wants that baggage.

Does anyone think about this?

PS3 is a hardware which its cost is higher than price.

Both HD player of toshiba.