View Full Version : Is the Glass Ceiling of ultra high end Projectors going to burst?
Scanman0 02-22-07, 11:50 PM Ok,
I'm finally back in the game, seriously looking for my new projector.
My bank roll is approx. $3000-4000. I want to really make a step up from my HS-10 in lumens & native resolution, not to forget CR.
I need a high lumen output and crave the highest resolution I can get for PC/Gaming.
Many of you have seen me post, nurturing along a very nice "old" projector.
I have visited the $3000+ forum, and everyone there is fawning over the JVC HS1.
It seems to me that the "High end" and the under $3000 are closing into an impact.
When I bought my Sony HS-10, the High end was awaiting a $10,000 1080p projector, and didn't want the "white noise" of a lowly 1366 x 768 projector in their area.
So the $2500 or up message board became, overnight, the $3000 and up area.
Free of this high end LCD stuff...
Now, it seems that the market is turning this upside down, and the new projectors are coming out with the higher resolutions, and the high end is "bent".
When I say Bent, the value of the high end projectors from 1 year ago, are now worth less than 50% from the low side of the spectrum, and 200% less in value from the Runco and high side, due to the release of the new projectors.
]I was actually laughing, out loud, when I realized the price point of the newest baby in the high end club was:
The JVC RS1. This thing is listing for 648,000 Yen. ($5k and change)
So my point is this. If the Got to have it, best thing since sliced bread early adapter is now going for a unit at less than $5K and change . What about the middle of the road. Many people paid $10,000+ for projectors that cant do 1080p.
What are they doing with the old units, with ultra high end specs?
This must be a major upset for some that paid thousands, to find out that the ceiling burst, and the now old, high end projector is left out to dry in value ?
Now the "middle" market is saturated with 720p projectors at a dime a dozen.
I just find it quite interesting that the High end has fallen so mutch, that it's newest player is only $2000 from the bottom of the ceiling.($3000)
Mabe, the High end forum needs to go back to the $2500. mark, to reflect the progress the market has taken us.
christer W. 02-23-07, 01:47 AM While many buyere of the high-end machines are indeed perfectionists, many are also just self-indulgent home owners who have the means to have a custom built HT put in their homes. Since there is no margin in a low end PJ, the custom installer has to sell a Runco or equivalent to make it worth his while. Since the overall project is going to run perhaps 100K or more, if the contractor is any sort of salesperson, the home-owner is not going to care if the projector costs 3K or 6K or even 10K, especially if he thinks he is getting the top of the line. Very likely he never looked at another one anywhere else, so what does he know? What does he care?
I say these things from the perspective of knowing three people who put themselves in this exact position. They paid a ton of money for a custom HT and are happy with it. If I told them they could have got similar performance for a fraction, they would be convinced that it wouldn't be as good simply because it cost less.
When I built my HT, I was introduced to the craft of speaker building. After I studied it for a bit, I sort of reverse-engineered my Klipsch Heresy's. I paid 400 each in '76 while I was in college. They still make them but they are now about 700 each. I figure today they cost less than $75 to make. Roughly 100% margin for the retailer, profit for the factory....
What do you figure it costs Sony to put together a HS-60? $200? $300? Remember, they have to ship it over here, sell it to Sony USA, who then in turn had to sell it to the dealers, who can now sell one for $1500 and make some money. Even if Sony kicks in some incentive money, Sony isn't taking a loss. Why would they build them otherwise? Apply this logic to a 10K projector. Dealer cost is not going to be more than 5-7K and their distributor made a chunk at that figure. No wonder they drop like rocks.
Don't feel sorry for them, though. They are used to it. A Mercedes or BMW drops just the same after a year of driving. Being in the business, I know.
Scanman0 02-23-07, 02:08 AM Christer,
You have a valid point, in the fact that people with $$$$ are not good consumers, and can buy a bag of crap, IF they think it don't stink.
This high end consumer is left to the "French Marketing campaign" and deserves EXACTLY what they buy.
I'm speaking about the "knowlegable consumer"
Imagine the people that hang around here and know the difference.
Yes, the Knowledge empowered AVS'r!
I'm not the only "not a Millionaire", that will drop REAL cash for a projector for the "main room", and get yelled at why the curtains are made of 100% light blocking material, and NOT live in a mantion, and NOT have unlimited funds.
Am I wrong, or not as good as the ritch idiot that can't tell the difference.....
Do you think I made 19,000 hours in an HS-10, Because "I was up to the challenge",
Or do you think I was Challenged by my circumstances, and was aible to scrape a band aid here and there to keep it running...
With enough effort and spare time, you can become an expert even
To loose the impact of what's happening in the marketplace, by saying the customers are Morons, might cut it for a NY second....BUT some of us are coupon using, not rich normal work 40 hour a week type folks.
Flooper 02-23-07, 09:54 AM Early adapters always pay more...that's just the way all consumer electronics work
First color TVs were way expensive...same for
VHS players
CD players
DVD players
Cell phones
Do you remember when a simple Texas Instrument calculator cost over $500?
The point is, if you want a leading edge technology sooner than when it hits mass adoption...you will pay for it. That doesn't make you stupid or foolish...it just means you have different priorities than those of us who decide to wait until prices are more reasonable.
The exact same thing is happening with HD-DVD and Blue Ray right now...some people who want it right now are willing to pay a lot for it...others, like me, will wait. In two years, I will be able to get a better quality HD-DVD or Blue Ray player than the people buying them now, and I'll probably get it for $100. BUT...I will have missed two years of watching HD movies that the early adopters enjoyed. Each person has to determine if it's worth it. We are all "waiters" in some areas of life, and "early adopters" in other areas.
Every consumer electronic has gone through a massive "quality increase/price decrease" phase. We are in that phase right now. The hard thing is when you get caught being an early adopter of high end equipment right as the whole category hits its " massive quality increase/price decrease phase." That's what's happened to all the people who bought 8K projectors last year that are now only worth 2 to 3K. Like so many things...it's all about timing.
Like so many things...it's all about timing.
Exactly...and is it a good time to buy one of the new 1080p projectors in the $4k range and start enjoying HD DVD and Blu-ray now - or wait another year and buy better equipment at lower price points? Depends on individual circumstances.
And in regards to the custom $100K+ home theaters - there will always be a market for quality design, installation and support.
Panoppolite 02-23-07, 12:46 PM Interesting consideration. I use my Panny exclusively at 1080i and find little justification to make the jump to 1080P. In fact, I'm more tempted to buy the 720P Sanyo PLV5 or Panny AX100U. Human visual acuity being what it is, with 720P and 1080i the only broadcast content, and the excellent pictures available with upconverted 480P DVD's I see no economic justification to move into 1080P at this time.
For those making major HT construction, have plenty of money, and a Blu-Ray or HD player, it makes perfect sense. Some of these things wind up as allowable tax deductions if you are a media writer, director or actor.
Shoot, the same thing just happened to plasma TV's. You couldn't touch one a few years ago for under $6K, now there are many better ones selling for less than half. My $4K projector from 5 years ago is destroyed by a $900 projector today. That's just the nature of technology. In a couple of years the market will be flooded with 1080p projectors for under $2k with better blacks and more output than anything on the market today. People buying today will look just as dumb.
christer W. 02-23-07, 01:10 PM Another cosideration is that while the people who have the money to buy a high end projector are interested in quality, their most precious commodity it time. This means that they don't usually take the time to research things they way the regulars of this forum do. They rely on others to do it for them and pay for the expertise they think they are getting. OTOH, they know the value of a dollar, else how would they have accumulated so many of them?
Pannoppolite makes a very valid point in in the regard to diminishing returns. These same well-to-do buyers, if presented with a valid (properly set up) side by side comparison of a 10K Runco compared to a 1.7K Pansonic/Sony/Mits/Sanyo/whatever would more than likely not be convinced of the added value gained by the addition of over $8K to the pot. Imagine throwing in a panny AE900, now available for barely $1,000 and the equation becomes even more skewed. Most dedicated custome HT's are going to be completely light controlled, so ironically, the lesser projectors have the playing field leveled in their favor by this one factor alone; no need to pay for a light cannon if there is no need.
stickyman 02-23-07, 01:22 PM that's a fact of life for technology. i remember when a 2x cd-writer was $600. now you can get a 16x dvd writer for $50 or less. when i got my 32" plasma 3 years ago it cost me $4000 and that was on sale $2000 off. now you can get a 50" plasma with better contrast, more colors, higher resolution, etc. for the same price.
this is the reason why i picked up a sanyo plv-z5 instead of a 1080p projector. for the $4K it will cost now to buy a 1080p projector, I can get a plv-z5 now which is pretty good, and in 2-3 years get a 1080p projector that will be 2-3 times better than any 1080p projector on the market now for $2K. I get two projectors and in the long run better picture quality.
Flooper 02-23-07, 03:30 PM That's what I love about the cheap projector situation right now, and why I wouldn't buy anything else. The quality of many "under $1000" projectors is pretty amazing, and they're cheap enough you don't feel horrible upgrading every three or four years when another massive leap in quality comes along.
That's what I love about the cheap projector situation right now, and why I wouldn't buy anything else. The quality of many "under $1000" projectors is pretty amazing, and they're cheap enough you don't feel horrible upgrading every three or four years when another massive leap in quality comes along.
My exact thoughts....... ;)
Scanman0 02-26-07, 01:28 AM After starting this thread, and reading all the opinions given,
I still cannot come up with a replacement for my Sony HS-10.
I need the nice LONG THROW lens for my already concreted layout.
Yet, there is not a single new projector that will give me this long thow distance!
I have almost become "Groth stunted" in thinking the "mainstream" projector market cannot meet my needs, with a replacement projector, with the same features as the lowly Sony HS-10, with it's fully remote controlled zoom & focus features, not to mention, the 1368* 768 native resolution. It may not have the iris of the hs-20, but it has been a great unit for me.
I require a "breakthrough" of some sort to get me to upgrade.
To buy ANY projector with ANY less than what I have in FEATURES/RESOLUTION/as well as TRUE Lumens, Is a downgrade, and I am still tempted to buy the 8'th Bulb for this unit, as I see no clear winner with the same throw distance, automated focus/zoom, or true higher resolution/in PC mode.
Please tell me I am wrong ?!?!
I'd think most movie viewers, except certified AVS pixel peepers :),
would find these 3 projectors put out a pleasing image most of the time,
and what a price difference!
Mits HC3100 720p DC3
JVC HD1 1080p DILA
Sharp 20000 1080p DC3
I'd also would not be surprised if in a blind test many preferred the 3100 due to its lower fan noise level, and much lower cost. The others do have advantages just you need to be looking for them :)
mastiff34 02-26-07, 01:12 PM To bad the 3100 still isnt for sale in the US =(...
We hear you, Scanman. In the 'been there, done that game' bleeding edge has lost some of its luster. Flooper and Chris paint it like it is. Good advice.
I can only add this bit of wisdom: Digital is Disposable. "Better to buy a sinking boat than a sinking ship". Zero bragging rights, but plenty left in the coffers for the next round.
HeadRusch 02-26-07, 04:12 PM When I bought my HD70 I fully expected it to be either disposable at the time of bulb replacement, or to be sold at a cost that likely wouldn't superceed the cost of a replacement bulb for whatever new projector I might have bought by then.
Example: My hardly used H31 will now sell for barely more than the cost of a replacement bulb for the unit (and mine is used with super-low hours..less than 300 on the bulb in 1 years ownership).
rbastedo 02-26-07, 04:29 PM HeadRusch,
That depends on where you sell it...
HeadRusch 02-26-07, 06:08 PM Well, I'm one of those people burdeoned with a small bit of conscience....I wouldn't sell it to someone for $500 when you can buy them new for that money...I think I pegged my asking price at $400, but now I see you can get a new Infocus HD72 for like $450 and change.....
Anyhow.....I think the days of the high-end projector are coming to an end for current technology. Example, a "high end" DLP will be a 1080p 3chipper. A High-End LCD wont exist.....it'll be some exotic technology. I mean, if you checked out CEDIA there are still plenty of people selling 720p or 1080p systems for $10k and up, but I'll be darned if I can figure out what all that extra money *really* buys you.
I would probably be upgrading my HS-10 to something out there now with a 2500:1 CR or up....the slight resolution hit (1280x720 versus 1366x768 is hardly worth talking about) will be beaten by superior CR even with todays bargain PJ's.
Of course, you're losing alot of the nice stuff..the power zoom for one, but I question that functionality anyhow since, once its setup...its set up :)
But what is interesting is how an HS-10 is still running so many years later...whereas the Sanyos and Panasonics all seem to be made from Paper Mache' :) And die within a few years of usage with their discoloring LCD panels, etc, etc, so Sony must be oding something right.
Scanman0 03-01-07, 09:47 PM I would probably be upgrading my HS-10 to something out there now with a 2500:1 CR or up....the slight resolution hit (1280x720 versus 1366x768 is hardly worth talking about) will be beaten by superior CR even with todays bargain PJ's.
Of course, you're losing alot of the nice stuff..the power zoom for one, but I question that functionality anyhow since, once its setup...its set up :)
But what is interesting is how an HS-10 is still running so many years later...whereas the Sanyos and Panasonics all seem to be made from Paper Mache' :) And die within a few years of usage with their discoloring LCD panels, etc, etc, so Sony must be oding something right.
My point is that I won't DOWNGRADE ANY OF THE FOLLOWING, to "Upgrade":
1. Resolution. I use my HS-10 for EVERYTHING, I'm looking at it now at 1366 x 768, If anything, this NATIVE resolution MUST be INCREASED, not decreased.
Especially for reading AVSforum...I need more pixels!
2. For a low end projector, the hs-10 allows me to walk right up to the screen and stare directly at a "pixel" and adjust the focus/zoom of the lens, and see EXACTLY when I am in best focus/zoom. It's hard to to that subjectively from the top of a ladder at the projector with the lady saying "looks good to me" at the screen....
3. Sony really ruined me for projector placement with the LONG throw of this unit, and my setup is based on the longer than "now normal" short throw units.
4. Lumens. It DOES matter when your screen is in a cave environment and your pushing the limit of a really high lumen projector.
Add it all up, and I still cant find a replacement for my hs-10.
My question for the forum, is there a projector I can bolt in the same PLACE as an hs-10 and provide 1080p and still provide the same/more lumens?
Scanman0 03-01-07, 11:45 PM I have researched AVS for about 15 hours, and cannot find a suitable replacement for my now 4 year old projector.
This is SICK! Why can't Sony sell an HS-+ Model based on the HS10/20 line?
Instead they went for the mainstream market and killed the great thing they had going. the newer projectors in this line don't cut it on lumens/true resolution/throw distance.
How in the hell can they call it an upgrade, when they make the thee major parts inferior, and just add aris, and a smallr form factor to go with the lower light levels.
Even the new thread's about Sony not released yet say the same thing, less lumens, and 1080, instead of 1366.
HeadRusch 03-02-07, 09:38 AM My point is that I won't DOWNGRADE ANY OF THE FOLLOWING, to "Upgrade":
1. Resolution. I use my HS-10 for EVERYTHING, I'm looking at it now at 1366 x 768, If anything, this NATIVE resolution MUST be INCREASED, not decreased.
Especially for reading AVSforum...I need more pixels!
More pixels just makes things smaller......you're blowing the hardly-there pixel increase from 1280x720 or 1280x768 versus 1366x768 from a molehill into a mountain.
2. For a low end projector, the hs-10 allows me to walk right up to the screen and stare directly at a "pixel" and adjust the focus/zoom of the lens, and see EXACTLY when I am in best focus/zoom. It's hard to to that subjectively from the top of a ladder at the projector with the lady saying "looks good to me" at the screen....
A pair of $4.00 binoculars will solve this problem, alot of people use that method.
3. Sony really ruined me for projector placement with the LONG throw of this unit, and my setup is based on the longer than "now normal" short throw units.
Well this is true, you are screwed there :D The Panny 100 is the only one I know of right now with the 2.0 zoom lens....
My question for the forum, is there a projector I can bolt in the same PLACE as an hs-10 and provide 1080p and still provide the same/more lumens?
<shrug>....don't know......I'm not up on my 1080p projectors, honestly...
Ok,
I'm finally back in the game, seriously looking for my new projector.
My bank roll is approx. $3000-4000. I want to really make a step up from my HS-10 in lumens & native resolution, not to forget CR.
I need a high lumen output and crave the highest resolution I can get for PC/Gaming.
Many of you have seen me post, nurturing along a very nice "old" projector.
I have visited the $3000+ forum, and everyone there is fawning over the JVC HS1.
It seems to me that the "High end" and the under $3000 are closing into an impact.
When I bought my Sony HS-10, the High end was awaiting a $10,000 1080p projector, and didn't want the "white noise" of a lowly 1366 x 768 projector in their area.
So the $2500 or up message board became, overnight, the $3000 and up area.
Free of this high end LCD stuff...
Now, it seems that the market is turning this upside down, and the new projectors are coming out with the higher resolutions, and the high end is "bent".
When I say Bent, the value of the high end projectors from 1 year ago, are now worth less than 50% from the low side of the spectrum, and 200% less in value from the Runco and high side, due to the release of the new projectors.
]I was actually laughing, out loud, when I realized the price point of the newest baby in the high end club was:
The JVC RS1. This thing is listing for 648,000 Yen. ($5k and change)
So my point is this. If the Got to have it, best thing since sliced bread early adapter is now going for a unit at less than $5K and change . What about the middle of the road. Many people paid $10,000+ for projectors that cant do 1080p.
What are they doing with the old units, with ultra high end specs?
This must be a major upset for some that paid thousands, to find out that the ceiling burst, and the now old, high end projector is left out to dry in value ?
Now the "middle" market is saturated with 720p projectors at a dime a dozen.
I just find it quite interesting that the High end has fallen so mutch, that it's newest player is only $2000 from the bottom of the ceiling.($3000)
Mabe, the High end forum needs to go back to the $2500. mark, to reflect the progress the market has taken us.
The OP thinks what?
When is $5k high end? That's budget HT here:
Cedia 2006 via Evan Powell:
"As far as the high end of the market is concerned, we offer an enthusiastic standing ovation to Digital Projection International (DPI) for staging one of the most spectacular video systems demonstrations ever assembled for a trade show of this type. The DPI theater featured five screens showing both single chip and 3-chip DLP 1080p and 720p models. There were two 12-foot wide Vutec Vision XFT screens at eye level side by side. On the left screen was DPI's Titan 1080p-500, which retails for about $50,000. On the right screen was their Titan HD-250, a 3-chip 720p DLP projector retailing for about $21,000. In a second row above these two large screens were three somewhat smaller Stewart Snomatte screens that were featuring (a) the dVision 1080p single chip DLP ($29,995), (b) the iVision 20HD single chip 720p ($6,995), and (c) the dVision HD single chip 720p, $17,995). "
"I will have missed two years of watching HD movies that the early adopters enjoyed. Each person has to determine if it's worth it. We are all "waiters" in some areas of life, and "early adopters" in other areas."
heh. two years of lousy selection until the format war ends and the industry starts catering
to folks who can't stand hollywood mainstream garbage. can't say that's my definition of enjoyment.
HeadRusch 03-02-07, 12:37 PM Well then we're all really glad you didn't buy into the technology.
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