http://www.dvdtimes.co.uk/content.php?contentid=64222

I know I'm reaching here but with all the corporate shake-ups going on is it possible that these dates have been postponed due to Fox/MGM going THD?

Either way, it just goes to show that announced dates mean nothing.

The delay if far more likely to be caused by production capacity issues with BD-50 than Fox/MGM switching to THD.

http://www.dvdtimes.co.uk/content.php?contentid=64222

I know I'm reaching here but with all the corporate shake-ups going on is it possible that these dates have been postponed due to Fox/MGM going THD?Are you trying to be funny? It's as unlikely as Sony goes HD DVD...

Let the man hope I mean..... Thats about all thats left for us.

I don't think this is currently likely either. However, if production issues get in the way of supplying even this low level of demand, what will happen if HD discs start to take off? Maybe it would just be easier to go with HD DVD, save some money and production hassles, and be able to meet demand? They would also add an enthusiastic installed base at the same time. For movie content neither format at their best is currently displaying much of an advantage over the other. No harm in considering both sides of the equation.

I don't think this is currently likely either. However, if production issues get in the way of supplying even this low level of demand, what will happen if HD discs start to take off? Maybe it would just be easier to go with HD DVD, save some money and production hassles, and be able to meet demand? They would also add an enthusiastic installed base at the same time. For movie content neither format at their best is currently displaying much of an advantage over the other. No harm in considering both sides of the equation.

I don't think it was disc production issues, more issues with poor masters and poor transfers, their latest releases got panned for bad PQ, so maybe, like RoboCop, they pulled them to remaster and redo.

If this line of thinking gets you through March, so be it.

Fox has been very vocal about the importance of only one format. This isn't happening.

Fox would never even consider going neutral unless there were 2+ million HD-DVD players in homes. Hopefully, that will actually happen within a year or so and then things will get interesting. Lion's Gate and / or Disney would probably go neutral before Fox.

Fox would never even consider going neutral unless there were 2+ million HD-DVD players in homes. Hopefully, that will actually happen within a year or so and then things will get interesting. Lion's Gate and / or Disney would probably go neutral before Fox.
I agree. Fox is second in support of Blu-ray only behind Sony. Even Disney is a more likely candidate for neutrality than Fox would be (and that's pretty unlikely given current market conditions)

Left to right in order of attachment, I'm guessing the order of preference for Blu-ray to HD DVD in Hollywood is:

Sony - Fox - Disney - Lionsgate - Paramount - Warner - Weinstein - Universal

I put Paramount over Warner in that they seem more willing to take advantage of the strengths of each format rather than a single lowest-common-denominator master encode such as Warner uses.

If this line of thinking gets you through March, so be it.

Oh I get it. :)

But what's with all the secrets? why don't they just come out and say the truth about "they pulled them to remaster and redo"? Wouldn't that earn them a little more respect that they value consumer's opinions? And what's so crazy about them spending a little more money at a chance to double their sales. I don't know. I smell a defection somewhere (and it's not in my pants) :eek:

But what's with all the secrets? why don't they just come out and say the truth about "they pulled them to remaster and redo"? Wouldn't that earn them a little more respect that they value consumer's opinions? And what's so crazy about them spending a little more money at a chance to double their sales. I don't know. I smell a defection somewhere (and it's not in my pants) :eek:

Because then they would have to admit that they have put out a poor product, companies generally don't like doing that as it invariably (especially in America) leads to class-action law suits.

Fox is also releasing new titles like Eragon and Night at the Museum, which promise to be big big hits.

The delayed titles are catalog and not nearly as important as the new ones.

Left to right in order of attachment, I'm guessing the order of preference for Blu-ray to HD DVD in Hollywood is:

Sony - Fox - Disney - Lionsgate - Paramount - Warner - Weinstein - Universal


That's a pretty good assessment. It's like a rainbow of studios going from BLU to RED... ROYGBIV.

I had a hunch that the "aggressive" release schedule wouldn't hold up so well. I do wonder if it is piracy concerns or production.

The old adage "never count your hens before they've hatched" applies here.

Jack,

Fox has been very vocal about the importance of only one format

and Universal has been equally adament about not going BD, and yet there was a long thread speculating that Universals announcement of going neutral was immiment based on the fact that their website pulled their HD section.

There is enough foolishness on both sides.

But what's with all the secrets? why don't they just come out and say the truth about "they pulled them to remaster and redo"?

You never show your hand in business. Fox isn't going to let on if there is any sign of weakness in their camp, whether it's due to poor masters, poor BD50 yields, hacking/security problems, disappointment with sales, or whatever. The next thing you'd see is blogs lighting up all over the place, articles in trade magazines, HD DVD jumping up and down and spinning it, etc. etc. It's bad enough they are pulling (at least temporarily) their line-up. Something is wrong somewhere. BUT, they sure is heck won't tell you why, and I don't blame 'em.

Jack,



and Universal has been equally adament about not going BD, and yet there was a long thread speculating that Universals announcement of going neutral was immiment based on the fact that their website pulled their HD section.

There is enough foolishness on both sides.

You are right about the website.

However, there is a big difference between Fox and Universal.

-- Universal can unilaterally end the format war by going neutral.
-- Fox cannot do so. In fact, Fox's going neutral would probably prolong the format war and perhaps make both formats fail.

So, execs at Universal may be under a lot more pressure about their exclusiveness, with a lot of considerations about where their financial interest really lies.

My theory is that the format war has to end before we see the kind of penetration the studios want and that will provide us with the titles we want to see.

Many of those titles have little appeal to the young male PS3 gamers that are the base of blu-ray.

You might get a release date for "Dodgeball" again, but "Dancing with Wolves" I'd think is doubtful.

7500 copies of "Crank" sold in January for all those blu-ray players got their attention.

Rlsmith,

Universal can unilaterally end the format war by going neutral.

And this is relevant how? I am not being flip here. Many may want the format war to end, and many think that Universal changing will end it, but what is in it for Universal?

They obviously see something in staying exclusive, otherwise they wouldnt have made the announcements they have. Heck, Bill Hunts site has a list of expected releases to HD DVD exclusive.


So, execs at Universal may be under a lot more pressure about their exclusiveness, with a lot of considerations about where their financial interest really lies.

I disagree here in that there simply isnt enough money involved here to put any pressure on the studios. It is chump change. Heck, Dreamsworks isnt releasing any HD at all because they dont think there is a large enough market to justify it. Yes, they are a smaller studio, but they are pretty correct.

Right now, all the studios undoubtably have a business plan for HD (either format) and I sincerely doubt they see anything in the current numbers that would change their minds.


My theory is that the format war has to end before we see the kind of penetration the studios want and that will provide us with the titles we want to see.

You may very well be right, but I would add that I dont think any studio is going to change until the numbers pick up.

So, in reality we are stuck between a rock and a hard place and this whole thing is going to limp along for quite awhile.

Jack,



and Universal has been equally adament about not going BD, and yet there was a long thread speculating that Universals announcement of going neutral was immiment based on the fact that their website pulled their HD section.

There is enough foolishness on both sides.

And Mr. Hunt is stirring up that pot once again.

alfbinet,

I dont understand. I flipped over to Bills site and didnt see anything like that. He does have the rumor mill list of supposed Universal HD titles, but he does that for all the formats when he gets information.

What are you refering to?

alfbinet,

I dont understand. I flipped over to Bills site and didnt see anything like that. He does have the rumor mill list of supposed Universal HD titles, but he does that for all the formats when he gets information.

What are you refering to?

I think he is referring to blu-ray Bill's stunt on 2-16 where he posted Universal's physical and email address to advocate for releasing on blu-ray.

Rlsmith,



And this is relevant how? I am not being flip here. Many may want the format war to end, and many think that Universal changing will end it, but what is in it for Universal?



What is in it for Universal?

Obviously none of us know the entirety of their financial situation and dealings.

But working off of the assumption that their highest priority is to sell a lot of their products, ending the format war may well be a huge priority for them.

I think we have a better idea about Disney's views of this because of some of the things that Bob Chapek has said. He strongly suggested that Disney thinks that the format war must end in order to get people buying in droves. I agree.

I think that if Disney could start supporting HD DVD in the belief that it would end the format war, they would do so. They are not married to Blu-ray, it is just that they see it as the clearer shot at a resolution.

From where I sit personally, ending the format war (either way, doesn't matter) will open the floodgates.

I personally know 12 people with home theatres (some very expensive) who are waiting for the format war to end. I am the only person I know who is in the game. My boss has recently decided to buy a new 1080P projector and a Blu-ray player (for his bedroom!) but this is the first such event in my personal life.

If the format war ended tomorrow, these folks would be in the market for players, and following that would be disks. Bingo!

So why doesn't Universal agree with this? Obviously I don't know what they are thinking.

What do you think they are thinking?

I personally know 12 people with home theatres (some very expensive) who are waiting for the format war to end. I am the only person I know who is in the game. My boss has recently decided to buy a new 1080P projector and a Blu-ray player (for his bedroom!) but this is the first such event in my personal life.

That seems rather illogical. Spend 15K on a nice HT but then balk at the need to pay $400-500 a player to get full on HD access? Sounds like they're making their decisions based on principal more than anything.

I don't personally see where it's in Universals best interest to end the war any more than Fox/Disney/LGF/Columbia making the same decision and supporting HD DVD.

I don't think you see floodgates until you have $200 players. Neither format deserves life over the other IMO.

What is in it for Universal?

Obviously none of us know the entirety of their financial situation and dealings.

But working off of the assumption that their highest priority is to sell a lot of their products, ending the format war may well be a huge priority for them.

I think we have a better idea about Disney's views of this because of some of the things that Bob Chapek has said. He strongly suggested that Disney thinks that the format war must end in order to get people buying in droves. I agree.

I think that if Disney could start supporting HD DVD in the belief that it would end the format war, they would do so. They are not married to Blu-ray, it is just that they see it as the clearer shot at a resolution.

From where I sit personally, ending the format war (either way, doesn't matter) will open the floodgates.

I personally know 12 people with home theatres (some very expensive) who are waiting for the format war to end. I am the only person I know who is in the game. My boss has recently decided to buy a new 1080P projector and a Blu-ray player (for his bedroom!) but this is the first such event in my personal life.

If the format war ended tomorrow, these folks would be in the market for players, and following that would be disks. Bingo!

So why doesn't Universal agree with this? Obviously I don't know what they are thinking.

What do you think they are thinking?

Good post, I think they may feel HD DVD is the better format and thats what they want to support. The other studios have to know that and will decide accordingly. If the Sony subsidize rumors are true maybe they will give a second look when the bank drys up. Plus i do remeber reading a while ago that Disney was looking at being neutral but decided to go Blu. I think to find out What the Blu studios reasons for not supporting HD DVD were amended then things might change.

I know I'm reaching here but with all the corporate shake-ups going on is it possible that these dates have been postponed due to Fox/MGM going THD?

Or we can look at it from reality, and admit that HD disc in general is still a niche format with a small and limited user base. Because it's a niche format competition per movie release is a lot stronger than say DVD. Each release matters, and each release does take sales from another release. We simply do not have 200 million HD players out there, and have more like 1.5 million total (and that is being generous).

Look at some (not all) of the current upcoming release list for blu-ray in March. Casino Royale, Mr and Mrs Smith, Happy Feet, Chicken Little, Eragon, and Finding Neverland. A couple of those in that list are not just great title releases, but HUGE releases. Even my fiance who could care less about the format war or HD in general is salivating over Happy Feet and Finding Neverland in HD.

Will dated movies such as Dances with Wolves, or Commando really stand much of a chance against the above list of shiny realitively new titles at this time? How about these standing a chance against Hoosiers? Or, will Ice Age really stand up against Happy Feet and Chicken Little? I'd have to say no, as the typical person does not have loads of cash to blow on movies and might be more inclined to buy the newer releases or true classics.

In all honesty, I have to make difficult decisions on what to buy this month cause I simply can't afford all of them. In April, I'll still be playing catch up from the March release list, and I am not alone in that situation.

Does yanking these releases hurt? Sure, it limits my content selection as I would have bought Dances with Wolves. However in the big scheme of things looking from the outside in, this month and the next couple months are not the time to release these movies from a business standpoint. To much content, and not enough cash for a lot of people.

This has nothing to do with neutrality, and has more to do with the competition between studios fighting for a niche crowd. It has to do with making money, and making the most money possible. Movies such as Dances with Wolves, Ice Age, Commando and Silence of the Lambs, etc really belong a month that has a weaker lineup.

Excellent 1st post Jason. Welcome to the boards.

Fox would never even consider going neutral unless there were 2+ million HD-DVD players in homes. Hopefully, that will actually happen within a year or so and then things will get interesting. Lion's Gate and / or Disney would probably go neutral before Fox.

Fox would be the last studio to go neutral along with Sony, and not even 3 million HD-DVD players would make them stray. If you think Sony is arrogant, Fox is at least twice more, and would never admit to have been wrong in not being neutral. That, plus they won the war a few times already, so what's the need to go neutral ? So they can sell up to 8000 units of one title in a month ? That's peanuts to them. Scratch that, it's not even peanuts, more like bread crumbs.

I have mentioned it before, but maybe the massive delays are due to both BR and HD-DVD being cracked, and Fox is holding as long as possible to see what comes of the promised BD+.

Or we can look at it from reality, and admit that HD disc in general is still a niche format with a small and limited user base. Because it's a niche format competition per movie release is a lot stronger than say DVD. Each release matters, and each release does take sales from another release. We simply do not have 200 million HD players out there, and have more like 1.5 million total (and that is being generous).

Look at some (not all) of the current upcoming release list for blu-ray in March. Casino Royale, Mr and Mrs Smith, Happy Feet, Chicken Little, Eragon, and Finding Neverland. A couple of those in that list are not just great title releases, but HUGE releases. Even my fiance who could care less about the format war or HD in general is salivating over Happy Feet and Finding Neverland in HD.

Will dated movies such as Dances with Wolves, or Commando really stand much of a chance against the above list of shiny realitively new titles at this time? How about these standing a chance against Hoosiers? Or, will Ice Age really stand up against Happy Feet and Chicken Little? I'd have to say no, as the typical person does not have loads of cash to blow on movies and might be more inclined to buy the newer releases or true classics.

In all honesty, I have to make difficult decisions on what to buy this month cause I simply can't afford all of them. In April, I'll still be playing catch up from the March release list, and I am not alone in that situation.

Does yanking these releases hurt? Sure, it limits my content selection as I would have bought Dances with Wolves. However in the big scheme of things looking from the outside in, this month and the next couple months are not the time to release these movies from a business standpoint. To much content, and not enough cash for a lot of people.

This has nothing to do with neutrality, and has more to do with the competition between studios fighting for a niche crowd. It has to do with making money, and making the most money possible. Movies such as Dances with Wolves, Ice Age, Commando and Silence of the Lambs, etc really belong a month that has a weaker lineup.

I'm sorry, but Eragon? Chicken Little? Mr and Mrs Smith? These studios do remember that they are releasing movies for (mostly) PS3 owners, right? If these are the kind of HUGE releases that Fox are going to bring out, then I am quite happy with them staying exclusive. I might rent those titles if I was feeling particularily masochistic. I haven't seen Casino Royale, but is it really on par with the classic Bond movies of the 60's? I understand its a matter of taste, but any month with Silence of the lambs is a strong month, if you ask me.

Fox would be the last studio to go neutral along with Sony, and not even 3 million HD-DVD players would make them stray. If you think Sony is arrogant, Fox is at least twice more, and would never admit to have been wrong in not being neutral. That, plus they won the war a few times already, so what's the need to go neutral ? So they can sell up to 8000 units of one title in a month ? That's peanuts to them. Scratch that, it's not even peanuts, more like bread crumbs.

I have mentioned it before, but maybe the massive delays are due to both BR and HD-DVD being cracked, and Fox is holding as long as possible to see what comes of the promised BD+.


I agree that Fox is arrogant and head-strong, but I don't think a company would ignore a format that had 3 million players in the market if the attach rate was significant.

Don't know if I agree about the AACS crack causing the Fox delays. Why would they release new releases like Eragon and Night At the Museum if they feared piracy? A major hit like Museum, one would think, would cause them more apprehension than an old catalog title like Commando. I still think there are serious production issues with their release schedule. Possible they even knew this beforehand yet wanted to make the big splash at CES anyway.

rlsmith,

But working off of the assumption that their highest priority is to sell a lot of their products, ending the format war may well be a huge priority for them

Here is the nub of the issue. Yes they want to sell lots of product, but the simple fact is, is that there isnt a large amount of product to sell right now, for whatever reason (chicken/egg thing).

What do you think they are thinking?

Like you, I have no Idea whatsoever. I do think, like all the other companies involved, they have a plan and strategy and are monitoring the situation. If things start to deviate significantly from their projections, most of the companies would switch to the other side, either HD to BD or visa versa.

jason,

Will dated movies such as Dances with Wolves, or Commando really stand much of a chance against the above list of shiny realitively new titles at this time

It depends on the person and their tastes. To be quite honest, off the BD list, the only movie that I would pick up would be the Pirates movies and Eragon.

OTOH, there are at least 6 movies off the upcoming Universal list that would buy at the drop of a hat if I owned a player of either type.

You are right about the website.

However, there is a big difference between Fox and Universal.

-- Universal can unilaterally end the format war by going neutral.
-- Fox cannot do so. In fact, Fox's going neutral would probably prolong the format war and perhaps make both formats fail.


the fact is totally opposite. once current BD exclusive studios LionsGate and Disney go neutral, BD will become the next UMD. Like it or not, people buy into BD because of exclusive contents. The same cannot be said about HD DVD. As long as Universal continue to produce HD DVD titles, it will not have huge negative impact on HD DVD

TVprediction :)

The delay if far more likely to be caused by production capacity issues with BD-50 than Fox/MGM switching to THD. Or response to the AACS crack.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Icemage
Left to right in order of attachment, I'm guessing the order of preference for Blu-ray to HD DVD in Hollywood is:

Sony - Fox - Disney - Lionsgate - Paramount - Warner - Weinstein - Universal
That's a pretty good assessment. It's like a rainbow of studios going from BLU to RED... ROYGBIV. I also like it. Good job Icemage.

the fact is totally opposite. once current BD exclusive studios LionsGate and Disney go neutral, BD will become the next UMD. Like it or not, people buy into BD because of exclusive contents. The same cannot be said about HD DVD. As long as Universal continue to produce HD DVD titles, it will not have huge negative impact on HD DVD

TVprediction :)

Please... for the love of God CHANGE YOUR DAMN SIG! Every time I see you post I know it is going to be something stupid... but I don't care, because your sig is so outdated now it isn't even funny.

Or we can look at it from reality, and admit that HD disc in general is still a niche format with a small and limited user base. Because it's a niche format competition per movie release is a lot stronger than say DVD. Each release matters, and each release does take sales from another release. We simply do not have 200 million HD players out there, and have more like 1.5 million total (and that is being generous).

Look at some (not all) of the current upcoming release list for blu-ray in March. Casino Royale, Mr and Mrs Smith, Happy Feet, Chicken Little, Eragon, and Finding Neverland. A couple of those in that list are not just great title releases, but HUGE releases. Even my fiance who could care less about the format war or HD in general is salivating over Happy Feet and Finding Neverland in HD.

Will dated movies such as Dances with Wolves, or Commando really stand much of a chance against the above list of shiny realitively new titles at this time? How about these standing a chance against Hoosiers? Or, will Ice Age really stand up against Happy Feet and Chicken Little? I'd have to say no, as the typical person does not have loads of cash to blow on movies and might be more inclined to buy the newer releases or true classics.

In all honesty, I have to make difficult decisions on what to buy this month cause I simply can't afford all of them. In April, I'll still be playing catch up from the March release list, and I am not alone in that situation.

Does yanking these releases hurt? Sure, it limits my content selection as I would have bought Dances with Wolves. However in the big scheme of things looking from the outside in, this month and the next couple months are not the time to release these movies from a business standpoint. To much content, and not enough cash for a lot of people.

This has nothing to do with neutrality, and has more to do with the competition between studios fighting for a niche crowd. It has to do with making money, and making the most money possible. Movies such as Dances with Wolves, Ice Age, Commando and Silence of the Lambs, etc really belong a month that has a weaker lineup.

I'm sorry, I completely disagree with you.
First of all, with such a small niche market, each release does not take away from other releases, they add to them. Early adopters won't just buy one or two titles that they want, they'll buy all that they want.
Mr. and Mrs. Smith??? Chicken Little? Eragon????
Great for children maybe, but do you really think your average Joe is interested enough in them to double dip?
Its interesting that you quickly dismiss Dances with Wolves and Silence of the Lambs, two that are considered classics by most people.
Classics tend to have more value for repeated viewings than mindless popcorn flicks.
J

While we're all looking in our crystal ball, here's yet another possibility.

Sales numbers at this point are so limited in the big scheme of things that it does not really matter how much sales you get, but rather how you affect the war. This is especially true for studios who are really committed to a format, like Fox and Sony.

Now that BR has the momentum, the key thing is to prevent Universal/Toshiba from getting it back. If that's the case, then you want to wait with your own scheduling until they announce their schedule to counter it. They have a blockbuster to get things going? Try to program two blockbusters against it to stop their momentum.

Right now what counts for BR is to get everyone to believe that they WILL win. The real battle is next Christmas, but who will win will be determined by the positions each can take in the next 6 to 9 months. By keeping titles ready to counter any attempt by Universal to claw back, BR can make sure they end up in the pole position.

(I believe that Sony's recent statement of $299 BD players by Christmas must be seen in the same light. "You want a cheap player, but BD is expensive right now? Wait till Christmas and you will get your cheap BD player. Don't go HD right now just for the price.")

I don't think that "counter-programming" works in the context of Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD, though.

Consider: Let's say Average Joe doesn't own a player of either type.

He sees a new display on the store rack that advertises Movie A (Blu-Ray) and another that advertises Movie B(HD-DVD). Why does the timing of this even affect his buying decision? If one of the movies is a movie he likes a lot, he might choose that player, true, but the specific timing of that release will not matter.

P.S. Eragon isn't a double dip, it's a day and date release with the DVD as far as I know?

(I believe that Sony's recent statement of $299 BD players by Christmas must be seen in the same light. "You want a cheap player, but BD is expensive right now? Wait till Christmas and you will get your cheap BD player. Don't go HD right now just for the price.")


Better known as FUD. The BD gang carp about the war dragging on when Sony's reaction to what they are unable to deliver in the here and now either in price or features, is to promise more down the road, thus slowing down HD format adoption in general.

So the onslaught of projected BR titles that allowed them all that free PR at CES just got chilled, because now they found out it wouldn't make them instant winners. What a surprise. Now they opt to slow adoption rates (including their own) down in general, because they're afraid of the HD-DVD price advantage.

Also Blu-ray does not have momentum. What Blu-ray currently enjoys are more players tucked into a game console, and more new titles in 07. Consumers actually elevating the format to a fraction of it's projected adoption rate would be momentum. That's not happening. In fact HD in general is in dire want of momentum, if there was Sony and FOX wouldn't be playing this Hurry-up-and-wait BS, and it's these kinds of push-me pull-me politics that make the whole realm of HD a major consumer turn-off.

Apparently consumer loyalty knows no bounds if the BD gang isn't feeling just a bit used at this point.

I'm sorry, I completely disagree with you.
First of all, with such a small niche market, each release does not take away from other releases, they add to them. Early adopters won't just buy one or two titles that they want, they'll buy all that they want.
Mr. and Mrs. Smith??? Chicken Little? Eragon????
Great for children maybe, but do you really think your average Joe is interested enough in them to double dip?
Its interesting that you quickly dismiss Dances with Wolves and Silence of the Lambs, two that are considered classics by most people.
Classics tend to have more value for repeated viewings than mindless popcorn flicks.
J


Perfect in your analysis. I was thinking the same thing when I read this post -- Mr. & Mrs. Smith? Maybe considered a sizable release 2 years ago, but it's been on cable in SD and HD 100 times and certainly is not a MAJOR film. Chicken Little? Probably the worst animated film Disney has ever released theatrically besides Lilo & Stitch! Cinderella, Snow White, Pinocchio, Fantasia, Sleeping Beauty, Beauty & the Beast, Lion King -- THESE would be major announcements -- not this trivial nonsense that appeals to first-graders & under... And Eragon?!? This movie was universally panned by everybody! Good God, man, give me a break. :rolleyes:

I don't think that "counter-programming" works in the context of Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD, though.

Consider: Let's say Average Joe doesn't own a player of either type.

He sees a new display on the store rack that advertises Movie A (Blu-Ray) and another that advertises Movie B(HD-DVD). Why does the timing of this even affect his buying decision? If one of the movies is a movie he likes a lot, he might choose that player, true, but the specific timing of that release will not matter.

P.S. Eragon isn't a double dip, it's a day and date release with the DVD as far as I know?

You could be right. But I personally believe that Average Joe won't be buying a player before Christmas. Up until then, standalone players will be bought by 'more or less early adopters' who actually do check out some sources before buying.

If BR holds on to its lead going forward, there's little doubt as to who is having the advantage. If the lead goes back and forth, it's a whole different story. That's what I believe it's about.

Perfect in your analysis. I was thinking the same thing when I read this post -- Mr. & Mrs. Smith? Maybe considered a sizable release 2 years ago, but it's been on cable in SD and HD 100 times and certainly is not a MAJOR film. Chicken Little? Probably the worst animated film Disney has ever released theatrically besides Lilo & Stitch! Cinderella, Snow White, Pinocchio, Fantasia, Sleeping Beauty, Beauty & the Beast, Lion King -- THESE would be major announcements -- not this trivial nonsense that appeals to first-graders & under... And Eragon?!? This movie was universally panned by everybody! Good God, man, give me a break. :rolleyes:


This may all be the the "Blockbuster method," it's no secret that Blockbuster doesn't care what they stock anywhere but on the walls, in fact the library section is often supplied by a third-party resale house. When a new Blockbuster opens they just order a drama section, or a horror section or what have you. The supply-house just indiscriminately dumps 70 applicable titles into a box and off they go. The only reason the middle section of a Blockbuster exists is to give the illusion of plenty and choice.

So really at this point they may just be fleshing-out the numbers largely with throw-away titles that have some name recognition to give the impression plenty, and not bothering with choice material until there are enough buyers to pitch to.

Fox has been very vocal about the importance of only one format. This isn't happening.
Fox went with BD because of the extra layer of protection and region coding. The protection has been bypassed and region coding can be (should be)made available to studios that want to use it. There is no reason for anyone other than $ony to not go neutral now.

Better known as FUD.

From Wikipedia:
"Although once it was usually attributed to IBM, in the 1990s and later the term became most often associated with industry giant Microsoft."

From Wikipedia:
"Although once it was usually attributed to IBM, in the 1990s and later the term became most often associated with industry giant Microsoft."

and this means Sony is a stranger to it? Deal with FUD on a FUD by FUD basis, I gave a pretty detailed description of how it applies to this topic, your simply trying to ad a "what's good for the goose" justification of it.

FUD is $hitty no matter from where it flows, in an election it suppresses voter turnout to favor the base. However, in consumer electronics, it suppresses consumer turnout; consumers who may just decide they don't much need HD in either format.

So really at this point they may just be fleshing-out the numbers largely with throw-away titles that have some name recognition to give the impression plenty, and not bothering with choice material until there are enough buyers to pitch to.
That's what it looks like to me.
That way, BR fans can constantly say "CONTENT RULES!"
J

Fox went with BD because of the extra layer of protection and region coding. The protection has been bypassed and region coding can be (should be)made available to studios that want to use it. There is no reason for anyone other than $ony to not go neutral now.

I seem to remember Amir in the insider thread saying something about HD-DVD players possibly getting region coding in the insider thread recently, although the current Toshiba's would remain region free.

That could be a bone for Fox, who might be interested to see how their releases do on players that don't belong to a 90% young adult male gamer base who just want teen comedies and comic book action.

I seem to remember Amir in the insider thread saying something about HD-DVD players possibly getting region coding in the insider thread recently, although the current Toshiba's would remain region free.

That could be a bone for Fox, who might be interested to see how their releases do on players that don't belong to a 90% young adult male gamer base who just want teen comedies and comic book action.

As much as I favor HD-DVD, I think that sucks if it's true. It's one of the few progressive consumer-friendly trends to come out of all this HD war BS. All because some studio idiots think they they are going to stop the flow of piracy with dams built of straw.

As much as I favor HD-DVD, I think that sucks if it's true. It's one of the few progressive consumer-friendly trends to come out of all this HD war BS. All because some studio idiots think they they are going to stop the flow of piracy with dams built of straw.

So, you'd rather deny Disney and Fox the ability to region code if they want, than be able to have HDDVDs of their movies? :confused:

Region codes is not giving the consumer what they want, and thats are the first rule of every entertainment company should live by (or other commercial company out there).

If we in europe dont get enough movies on either format, we would like to import. And if we even cant do that. Then downloading is the only option left.

So, you'd rather deny Disney and Fox the ability to region code if they want, than be able to have HDDVDs of their movies? :confused:

Given that three times out of four "region code" means "stop Europeans like me from watching the movie", it's a tough call. It might be worth missing out on a couple of studios to keep a format absolutely devoid of region coding. If I had to take effective region coding to get Fox and Disney, on balance I'd rather do without Fox and Disney.

In practice, region coding just means that I have to use a PC rather than a standalone until region-free standalones appear.

So, you'd rather deny Disney and Fox the ability to region code if they want, than be able to have HDDVDs of their movies? :confused:

If I thought that was truly in the offering, perhaps.

I guess since there is no longer the PAL/NTSC thing to contend with, it's a matter of choice for European distributors to use it or not, it doesn't seem that awful since many don't anyway.

It's still stupid, and in the broader picture still limits choice.

But then I want to see no regional encoding and complete studio neutrality, then both systems could be judged on their merits and value.

Region codes is not giving the consumer what they want, and thats are the first rule of every entertainment company should live by (or other commercial company out there).

If we in europe dont get enough movies on either format, we would like to import. And if we even cant do that. Then downloading is the only option left.
So you're suggesting that piracy is a good and lawful response to companies attempting to protect their property?

I understand the frustration with region coding, but we seriously need to examine why studios want region coding in the first place. Why are movies almost always released later in Europe? Probably because the multiple language tracks require more time to do voice acting/subtitles for. What would you have studios do? Delay every release until all language tracks are ready?

As for what the consumer wants, the consumer wants to have everything at zero cost. If companies were bound solely by what consumers wanted, we'd all be living in Communist states.

Given that three times out of four "region code" means "stop Europeans like me from watching the movie", it's a tough call. It might be worth missing out on a couple of studios to keep a format absolutely devoid of region coding.

Yes, this is true. Unfortunately Europeans get the stinkier end of the stick whenever encoding is implemented. It's not fair.

Why are movies almost always released later in Europe? Probably because the multiple language tracks require more time to do voice acting/subtitles for. What would you have studios do? Delay every release until all language tracks are ready?


I doubt it since our DVDs usually also contain these tracks and subtitles. Most dubbing is done for theatrical exhibition, before the any video release.

So you're suggesting that piracy is a good and lawful response to companies attempting to protect their property?

Not lawful, but a fact of life that studios would be foolish to ignore. On Feb 27th, Veronica Mars season 3 episode 15 aired in the US. By midnight one the same day UK time, you could download a poor Xvid encode. Within 24 hours, a good 960x544 Xvid encode which is about level with a SD DVD (more pixels but more blocking). There isn't even a release date for the season 1 SD DVDs yet. It might be two years before that's available here at similar quality to the download. What the hell does the industry expect to happen?

As for defeating region coding, rather than wholesale downloading of the material, I feel absolutely no guilt over bypassing market-rigging cartels.

Why are movies almost always released later in Europe? Probably because the multiple language tracks require more time to do voice acting/subtitles for.

Most films don't open until quite a while after they're finished. Doing subs would not be that big a deal.

In the case of Britain (same language), it's because they have always waited for the theatrical run to finish in the US then shipped (dirty and scratched) prints over. DVD releases got delayed to come out after the theatrical runs. And it just became industry practice.

Plus sometimes foreign rights aren't sold until the film has been out in the US for a while, especially for smaller films, i.e. the ones we're most likely to need to import (because they often never come out over here).

I doubt it since our DVDs usually also contain these tracks and subtitles. Most dubbing is done for theatrical exhibition, before the any video release.
The cause is irrelevant though. Perhaps it's because it takes longer to negotiate with the many European distributors. I don't know why, but it does not matter. The fact that it does take longer to get to theatrical distribution for films in Europe means that studios are forced to choose between earlier distribution in other regions, or withholding films until European distribution is ready.

Why should consumers in other markets be penalized for the slowness of the European market?

If companies were bound solely by what consumers wanted, we'd all be living in Communist states.
That's interesting! Reasoned consumers want competition

So you're suggesting that piracy is a good and lawful response to companies attempting to protect their property?

I understand the frustration with region coding, but we seriously need to examine why studios want region coding in the first place. Why are movies almost always released later in Europe? Probably because the multiple language tracks require more time to do voice acting/subtitles for. What would you have studios do? Delay every release until all language tracks are ready?

As for what the consumer wants, the consumer wants to have everything at zero cost. If companies were bound solely by what consumers wanted, we'd all be living in Communist states.

Many bigger movies has managed to be released at the same time over the entire world. The real reason is that they want to concentrate their marketing. Actors can only do one interview at the time. etc.

The problem is that when companys tries to protect their content they shoot themself in the foot because that makes their product inferior to the same product downloaded.

I dont know how it is over the atlantic, but here they have started to add an annoying "downloading is stealing" in front of every DVD movie. If I pay lots of money to se a movie I dont want to be lectured that I shouldnt download. Yes I know thats why I paid for the movie. People who download dont get that annoying stuff. They got the movie, no more no less.

The other intresting stuff is that the most downloaded movies are also the biggest boxoffice hits. Thats goes hand in hand. A movie people dont even bother to download would not bring people to the theaters.

I gladly pay and support the industry to make great movies, all Im asking for is that they dont screw us with HDCP, BD+, region coding, and you name it. I would want to buy a movie and play it everwere in my home HDCP display or not. So Fox and Di$ney give me the option to buy region free HD DVD.

I dont know how it is over the atlantic, but here they have started to add an annoying "downloading is stealing" in front of every DVD movie. If I pay lots of money to se a movie I dont want to be lectured that I shouldnt download. Yes I know thats why I paid for the movie. People who download dont get that annoying stuff. They got the movie, no more no less.

Explain to me then why legitimate DVD sales comprise less than 5% of the market in Asia. How exactly are the studios recompensed for this? Do you really believe the studios want to go through all this hassle of protecting their property if they weren't losing money hand over fist over piracy?

I dont know how it is over the atlantic, but here they have started to add an annoying "downloading is stealing" in front of every DVD movie. If I pay lots of money to se a movie I dont want to be lectured that I shouldnt download. Yes I know thats why I paid for the movie. People who download dont get that annoying stuff. They got the movie, no more no less.
Same here, and I feel exactly as you do. MPAA is making piracy pay. Maybe they call Hollywood lalaland for good reason.

Explain to me then why legitimate DVD sales comprise less than 5% of the market in Asia. How exactly are the studios recompensed for this? Do you really believe the studios want to go through all this hassle of protecting their property if they weren't losing money hand over fist over piracy?
Like a DVD is a day's wage?

Explain to me then why legitimate DVD sales comprise less than 5% of the market in Asia. How exactly are the studios recompensed for this? Do you really believe the studios want to go through all this hassle of protecting their property if they weren't losing money hand over fist over piracy?

Are you referring to all of Asia with that statement? I find that hard to believe. Legitimate DVDs, VCDs etc are all over Japan, Hong Kong & Korea. Mainland China is a whole different story.

Legitimate DVDs, VCDs etc are all over Japan, Hong Kong & Korea.


So are illegitimate DVD's.

Explain to me then why legitimate DVD sales comprise less than 5% of the market in Asia. How exactly are the studios recompensed for this? Do you really believe the studios want to go through all this hassle of protecting their property if they weren't losing money hand over fist over piracy?

Well do you think region coding HDCP etc will stop that? It gets out on the asian market when the first shipment of 35mm films comes in. They cant stop it.

And if they loose money on the asian market, they should stop delivering for it. No much point delevering if they loose money. But its not about loosing money its about not making as much as they want.

As long they afford to pay ridicolus amounts of cash to their star actors, they shouldnt complain to much about loosing money. Actually the moviemaking industry is a good buisness. I think Univer$al, Warner, Fox, $ony, Wein$tein, Lion$gate, Di$ney, $tudio Canal and so on agrees with that statement.

No regioncoding on HD DVD is one of the reason why I support that format.


l

Perfect in your analysis. I was thinking the same thing when I read this post -- Mr. & Mrs. Smith? Maybe considered a sizable release 2 years ago, but it's been on cable in SD and HD 100 times and certainly is not a MAJOR film. Chicken Little? Probably the worst animated film Disney has ever released theatrically besides Lilo & Stitch! Cinderella, Snow White, Pinocchio, Fantasia, Sleeping Beauty, Beauty & the Beast, Lion King -- THESE would be major announcements -- not this trivial nonsense that appeals to first-graders & under... And Eragon?!? This movie was universally panned by everybody! Good God, man, give me a break. :rolleyes:

First off,

Thank you for the welcome to the boards murch. :) Glad to be here. Long time lurker, first time poster.

Lets clear the air so to speak on some remarks before this gets out of hand. I am a full believer that each person has individual tastes when it comes to movies. Granted, you do not know my taste in movies and I do not know yours likewise. This is difference of opinion and individuality. Being 'free willed' is what makes us great and unique. My most wanted release list might somewhat differ from your most wanted release list.

And the age old saying can apply here, we can agree to disagree.

However, please do not misquote me saying all of those movies are 'huge' hits. I said that some are. Context here is key.

My thinking towards that was Casino Royale is definitely a HUGE release onto Blu-ray. Mr and Mrs Smith is very big if not huge because as one poster pointed out, the studios are somewhat catering to the PS3 crowd. Ask any "stereotypical" ps3 owner how fast they'll buy Angelina in HD and the answer will be shocking (I have no idea why as she's definitely not my type). But it is a fun movie to watch and something I would invest in. Eragon and Chicken Little? Big releases for children and/or families and will cause some competition amongst other releases. Ice Age more than likely would not stand a chance sales wise against Happy Feet. Lets face it, if our kids asked us to buy them Chicken Little or Eragon, would we really tell them to go pound sand if our budget is limited? It is going to move boxes and it will sell. Just because you and I won't buy these movies doesn't mean that others feel the same way. I personally felt like Eragon and Chicken Little were crap, but HBO feels somewhat differently as they've shown CL nearly every other day in HD the past couple weeks. That to me says something as people are interested in watching it.

Personally, I would have bought Dances with Wolves first *IF* the quality of the transfer met my expectations in the AQ and PQ department. Lets be honest though, Dances with Wolves is a dated film and is not everyone's cup of tea. I thought it was a great movie, but not everyone feels the way we do. Besides, it's a double dip for sure on Blu-Ray as you'll get the theatrical and extended versions eventually. Could it compete with the quote 'ps3 crowd' movies released right now? Possibly for a few of us here, but not as for sure as something like Casino Royale or Angelina in HD. Remember, these studios are releasing movies onto HD using demographics and are in it to make money. I am thankful that Hoosiers remains on the list and will be one of my picks of the month.

With that said, lets focus back onto the intent and content of my post. How many early adopters though can continue to drop 200-300 dollars bi-weekly to buy 'all' the movies released on their format of choice? Definitely not me as my collection just reached 16 since December. If buying all movies released is what studios are depending on, then both formats have already failed. The average Joe who HAS bought into a format already and doesn't have unlimited funds. This month's release list is strong in general, and I can tell you that I as a customer already have to make decisions on WHICH movie's I want to buy this month. That alone costs sales for titles, and I am not the only one doing that.

Studios are here to make money, as it all comes down to the almighty dollar. Demographically with a smaller niche format, you are dealing in sales of only a few hundreds of thousands compared to DVD's which can easily hit a few million with a semi crap title. Because the format install base is still small, competition between movie releases are much more heated than DVD. Each release does count, and yes, to much content at once right now means sales will suffer for particular titles.

That was my posting intent. :)

How do you get from,
=Icemage]
I understand the frustration with region coding, but we seriously need to examine why studios want region coding in the first place. Why are movies almost always released later in Europe?

To
The cause is irrelevant though.

In three posts?

I suggest you follow the money for the answer.

PAL/NTSC prevented the release of the same pressing in Europe as in the US. Studio's aren't even giving this a chance to see if one pressing for all markets save on production costs while lowering the incentive for piracy, and earning more money for them.

Disney and FOX are always pushing the limit of how much they can have their cake and eat it too, so it comes as no surprise they are at the forefront of this crap. Prohibition breeds crime.

If companies were bound solely by what consumers wanted, we'd all be living in Communist states.

That is exactly the opposite of what happened. Infact Soviet Union was so "production" focussed they were producing stuff nobody wanted.

Infact what you want (i.e. studios and some CE companies dictate to consumers) is exactly the kind of thing communists would have liked.

That is exactly the opposite of what happened. Infact Soviet Union was so "production" focussed they were producing stuff nobody wanted.

Infact what you want (i.e. studios and some CE companies dictate to consumers) is exactly the kind of thing communists would have liked.

No, communist states replaced the price system with central planning, trying to predict what consumers will need and dictating production based on that.

Unless a company is committing illegal monopolization, it is free (in a free market society) to make the trade-offs it wants to make. If consumers don't like it, they are free (in a free market system) not to buy it. Neither side dictates the other, but each feels the consequences of its choices through the price system.

I am not sure I will use the phrase ' production based on what consumers will need' as the focus of Soviet planning. It was rather based on what was determined to be good for the country as a whole and not individual consumers. Also, competition was often considered as wasteful production and contrary to the interest of the 'people'. So a group of people in the planning dept. decided what was good for the people and what should be produced.

The concept of the 'people' in soviet era economics is not the same as individual consumers in the market economy that we are familiar with. In our case, consumers vote with their wallets and profits determine what will be produced, not national intrests and stuff like that.....

In any scenario HD DVD would win.

It's the more economical solution that delivers. Blu-ray is the Pentium 4 of optical technology. It's built to deliver sizzle and not steak.

Sony has the cash to bankroll the format through turbulent times. With each month that passes and HD DVD is still here I know they grow more frustrated. You can sense their fear and see it in their actions. Claiming BD victory as "inevitable" and then having the chutzpah to claim the war over the minute they get an advantage in sales. That's not the mark of a confident champion.

My reference above seems to have been taken the wrong way.

The issue is that consumers want prices to always be lower. In a free market economy, companies exist to make money (you know, that greed thing). These two opposing forces are what signify the hallmarks of Western economies, and is how fair market pricing is achieved in the West.

Toshiba with HD-DVD have intrinsicly broken this pact by forcing player prices down, on the merits against their own best interests. Why is this?

My guess is that Toshiba will do anything and everything they can to establish HD-DVD as a dominant format so that they can then mostly withdraw from the market and reap the royalties that they believe will then be forthcoming. That's why HD-DVD player prices are so low, since Toshiba manufactures all of them.

To be fair, Matsushita, Sony and the rest of the BDA craft the same art from the other side, with the only difference being that they have thus far not chosen to use the same scorched earth tactics on pricing, and instead relied on marketing and content to fight their battles for them and maintain profitability. Should they decide at some point to follow suit and drop player prices down to or below costs in the same way Toshiba has, this war would almost immediately be over IMO, as HD-DVD's final advantage of hardware pricing superiority would vanish.

It's an interesting marketing strategy, but very disruptive to the market, and risky in the sense that if HD-DVD loses the format war, Toshiba is now out of a lot of money, both in research and manufacturing which won't be recouped if HD-DVD loses.

solid rebuttal Icemage.

I wonder what other opportunities for revenue will present themselves, Managed Copy perhaps but then that only benefits the content providers. As always it seems like the thankless job goes to the CE vendors who cannot keep margins high enough to profit long.

My reference above seems to have been taken the wrong way.

The issue is that consumers want prices to always be lower. In a free market economy, companies exist to make money (you know, that greed thing). These two opposing forces are what signify the hallmarks of Western economies, and is how fair market pricing is achieved in the West.

Toshiba with HD-DVD have intrinsicly broken this pact by forcing player prices down, on the merits against their own best interests. Why is this?

My guess is that Toshiba will do anything and everything they can to establish HD-DVD as a dominant format so that they can then mostly withdraw from the market and reap the royalties that they believe will then be forthcoming. That's why HD-DVD player prices are so low, since Toshiba manufactures all of them.

To be fair, Matsushita, Sony and the rest of the BDA craft the same art from the other side, with the only difference being that they have thus far not chosen to use the same scorched earth tactics on pricing, and instead relied on marketing and content to fight their battles for them and maintain profitability. Should they decide at some point to follow suit and drop player prices down to or below costs in the same way Toshiba has, this war would almost immediately be over IMO, as HD-DVD's final advantage of hardware pricing superiority would vanish.

It's an interesting marketing strategy, but very disruptive to the market, and risky in the sense that if HD-DVD loses the format war, Toshiba is now out of a lot of money, both in research and manufacturing which won't be recouped if HD-DVD loses.

If you forget to include the P$3, which is sold for a $300 loss. The only reason why Matsushita and Sony (not sure Toshiba was in the TV bidness then) even exist today is because they sold TVs in the US at a loss until they killed the US companies.

If you forget to include the P$3, which is sold for a $300 loss. The only reason why Matsushita and Sony (not sure Toshiba was in the TV bidness then) even exist today is because they sold TVs in the US at a loss until they killed the US companies.
You misunderstand the purpose of the PS3.

It is NOT designed primarily as a Blu-ray player. It's just more marketing. Sony knew that it would be used as such, and uses it even now as a talking point when publicizing the unit, but you don't understand why they are using a similar loss-leader model on a console.

First, no one else can produce a PlayStation 3 compatible unit without Sony's say-so (not that they'd want to at this juncture, since it does still lose money per unit).

Second, console games have huge margin that make movie titles at $40 retail look like peanuts. The retail price on PS3 titles is $59.95, and almost all of that is margin (as we know), which goes back to the various developers and distribution channels; but also includes a VERY heavily royalty for Sony. That's how Sony makes money on its consoles.

Sony would prefer to not have the PS3 sold primarily as a Blu-ray player in the mass market, since they wouldn't make much if any money on the unit net while they continue to lose money per unit in manufacturing cost. They accepted that some units would be purchased early on simply due to the vagaries of the market at the time, but I am very sure they don't want it to be an ongoing event (do you think it's an accident that the upcoming Sony BDP-S300 is priced at $599 MSRP? I think that pricing has nothing to do with BDA desperation - it's an attempt to head off this particular phenomenon before it becomes a prolific problem).

Sound familiar? This is exactly what Toshiba is trying to do with HD-DVD, except that their royalties per disc and player are much lower, and there is nothing that prevents anyone else from manufacturing an HD-DVD player aside from profit margins.

One disturbing possibility is that Toshiba will choose to consistently keep prices down to cost-level, and rely solely on disc royalties as free income (which would then make their business model virtually identical to that used by Sony and Microsoft in the console market). I don't know if that's too paranoid a viewpoint.

I certainly hope it hasn't come to that. If it has, then Toshiba will become the only manufacturer that will ever manufacture an HD-DVD unit. I don't believe this to be their tactic (yet)... but the signs are disturbing that nearly a year in, no other manufacturer has stepped into the void.

Hopefully I am wrong and the Chinese CEs really will come. With the recent speculation about price drops on Toshiba players, though, the possibility that we'll see non-Toshiba units grows increasingly remote.

The concept of the 'people' in soviet era economics is not the same as individual consumers in the market economy that we are familiar with. In our case, consumers vote with their wallets and profits determine what will be produced, not national intrests and stuff like that.....


Hey good to see ya back, getting any sleep these days? :)

In any scenario HD DVD would win.

It's the more economical solution that delivers. Blu-ray is the Pentium 4 of optical technology. It's built to deliver sizzle and not steak.

Sony has the cash to bankroll the format through turbulent times. With each month that passes and HD DVD is still here I know they grow more frustrated. You can sense their fear and see it in their actions. Claiming BD victory as "inevitable" and then having the chutzpah to claim the war over the minute they get an advantage in sales. That's not the mark of a confident champion.

And this doesn't sound like a person who can swallow the idea, that Sony is ahead in this format war and his side is losing ground on a daily basis.

And this doesn't sound like a person who can swallow the idea, that Sony is ahead in this format war and his side is losing ground on a daily basis.

Ideas don't have to be swallowed. I know that right now the formats are generating such little income and profit to the studios it doesn't matter that we have exclusives. The race is to see who gets to the pricepoints that allow a platform to reach critical mass. I believe that is $200.

Sony has an incredible advantage in content. Toshiba is going to pay for not keeping Paramount and Warner exclusive by having to cut their margin on players. Lucky for them HD DVDs cheaper production cost should allow them to do this more effectively than Blu-ray.

After the March wasteland of HD DVD non releases April comes in with the the beginning of Universals 100 exclusive titles. This means by Dec 31st there will be roughly 160 movies from Universal alone that cannot be had anywhere. All it will take to break some Blu-ray fans from the grasp of exclusivity is for Universal to announce at CES 2008 that they "still" plan to remain exclusive. How many movie lovers are going to miss out on nigh 200 good movies when $250 will get them HD salvation in 2008.

This war isn't over...in fact it's just getting fun.

I am not sure I will use the phrase ' production based on what consumers will need' as the focus of Soviet planning. It was rather based on what was determined to be good for the country as a whole and not individual consumers. Also, competition was often considered as wasteful production and contrary to the interest of the 'people'. So a group of people in the planning dept. decided what was good for the people and what should be produced.

The concept of the 'people' in soviet era economics is not the same as individual consumers in the market economy that we are familiar with. In our case, consumers vote with their wallets and profits determine what will be produced, not national intrests and stuff like that.....

You're definitely right that it was 'what the planning department thought was good for the people' rather than what consumers really asked.

You are also right with respect to the 'good for the country as a whole' point. However, the key economic argument in favor of free market competition is that it accomplishes exactly that. That's what the 'invisible hand' is about: each person maximizing his own utility AND each firm maximizing its own profit (absent monopoly power) leads to a maximization of total welfare.

And thus we agree that the best thing is to allow firms to make their own choices and then let consumers vote with their wallets, rather than let consumers 'dictate' what companies should do.

Timothy, Thanks! Definitely the greatest and best addition to my life was made on 2/27/07 :)

If you forget to include the P$3, which is sold for a $300 loss. The only reason why Matsushita and Sony (not sure Toshiba was in the TV bidness then) even exist today is because they sold TVs in the US at a loss until they killed the US companies.

Is that the only reason Sony is around? Didn't they also have a hand in I don't know, CDs, DVDs, 2 of the most popular gaming systems ever in the PS1 and PS2....

My reference above seems to have been taken the wrong way.

The issue is that consumers want prices to always be lower. In a free market economy, companies exist to make money (you know, that greed thing). These two opposing forces are what signify the hallmarks of Western economies, and is how fair market pricing is achieved in the West.

Toshiba with HD-DVD have intrinsicly broken this pact by forcing player prices down, on the merits against their own best interests. Why is this?

My guess is that Toshiba will do anything and everything they can to establish HD-DVD as a dominant format so that they can then mostly withdraw from the market and reap the royalties that they believe will then be forthcoming. That's why HD-DVD player prices are so low, since Toshiba manufactures all of them.

To be fair, Matsushita, Sony and the rest of the BDA craft the same art from the other side, with the only difference being that they have thus far not chosen to use the same scorched earth tactics on pricing, and instead relied on marketing and content to fight their battles for them and maintain profitability. Should they decide at some point to follow suit and drop player prices down to or below costs in the same way Toshiba has, this war would almost immediately be over IMO, as HD-DVD's final advantage of hardware pricing superiority would vanish.

It's an interesting marketing strategy, but very disruptive to the market, and risky in the sense that if HD-DVD loses the format war, Toshiba is now out of a lot of money, both in research and manufacturing which won't be recouped if HD-DVD loses.

Sony is saying their BD players may hit 300 dollars by year end. They are already coming out with the 600 dollar unit. It looks as though they are doing this from reduction in part prices though and not whole sale slash and burn selling of merchandise.

Sony is saying their BD players may hit 300 dollars by year end. They are already coming out with the 600 dollar unit. It looks as though they are doing this from reduction in part prices though and not whole sale slash and burn selling of merchandise.
First, even as a Blu-ray supporter, I always take everything Sony says with a sizable lump of sodium chloride. :)

Second, it may very well be true that manufacturing costs of Blu-ray units may have fallen due to Sony's incredibly aggressive production rate on the PlayStation 3. Combine with either the Broadcomm or Sigma SoC and you're looking at some production cost savings.

Even so, color me a bit dubious if I feel such a large cost differential can be achieved without cutting into profitability and alienating the other BDA manufacturers. Not saying it isn't possible... but hard to support on the merits, not just from a cost standpoint, but from a preservation of balance of power standpoint.

By the same logic I question the projected price reductions on the Toshiba players down to $299. There simply hasn't been enough time to push prices on parts down this fast, IMO.

If Sony and the rest of the BDA have figured out Toshiba's strategy and decided to follow suit by releasing low-end Blu-ray players in the $299 range by year's end, I think that would be very close to checkmate for HD-DVD. I don't believe that it costs Toshiba less per HD-DVD unit than a Blu-ray unit today; if there even was much of a production cost difference last year, I am fairly certain it has all but vanished by now, with the PS3 priming the pump for economy of scale.

In any scenario HD DVD would win.

It's the more economical solution that delivers. Blu-ray is the Pentium 4 of optical technology. It's built to deliver sizzle and not steak.

Sony has the cash to bankroll the format through turbulent times. With each month that passes and HD DVD is still here I know they grow more frustrated. You can sense their fear and see it in their actions. Claiming BD victory as "inevitable" and then having the chutzpah to claim the war over the minute they get an advantage in sales. That's not the mark of a confident champion.Did I just hear Iraqi PR minister or some crazy communist leader? Anyway your comment is not at all related to Fox in the topic IMHO.

I can't see Fox or Universal going neutral anythime soon. We are at least a year away from anything decisive. I'd rather be staring at good movies on a cheap player until then. Rather than a crystal ball.