Anyone have any info on sales figures for recent head to head different format releases ie Departed? Thanks, Jerry

I calculated the graphs solely for Amazon.com this week and got the following numbers.

Blu-ray - 2565
HD DVD - 1488

almost a 2:1 advantage for BD. I wonder if this is consistent everywhere or just with Amazon? Thanks for your help dobyblue

In Canada, the Blu-ray Departed was a week late. So over here, who knows what the numbers are like.

Are the total sales to date posted anywhere?

almost a 2:1 advantage for BD. I wonder if this is consistent everywhere or just with Amazon? Thanks for your help dobyblue

I can only assume that those Amazon numbers are wrong or they're simply not representative of the overal sales of the title. That's a 1.7:1 ratio, which would be absolutely terrible for a format that claims a 5:1 hardware ratio. I'm no fan of BD, but I'm sure they must have seen better than 1.7:1 sales, especially considering the lower price point for the BD.

I can only assume that those Amazon numbers are wrong or they're simply not representative of the overal sales of the title. That's a 1.7:1 ratio, which would be absolutely terrible for a format that claims a 5:1 hardware ratio. I'm no fan of BD, but I'm sure they must have seen better than 1.7:1 sales, especially considering the lower price point for the BD.

Considering that not all PS3s are going to be used for blu-ray movies, how exactly is the fact that Blu-ray is stomping all over HD-DVD "bad" for Blu-ray?

I can only assume that those Amazon numbers are wrong or they're simply not representative of the overal sales of the title. That's a 1.7:1 ratio, which would be absolutely terrible for a format that claims a 5:1 hardware ratio. I'm no fan of BD, but I'm sure they must have seen better than 1.7:1 sales, especially considering the lower price point for the BD.

Spin!

Considering that not all PS3s are going to be used for blu-ray movies, how exactly is the fact that Blu-ray is stomping all over HD-DVD "bad" for Blu-ray?

Sheesh man ever heard of proportionality. If Blu-ray has 5x the number of players yet only eeks out 1 3/4 movies for every 1 HD DVD movie that's not much of an impact or at least taking advantage of superior number.

This is even worse when you consider that Blu-ray has an advantage in total players and a solid advantage in movie studios.

If this was the stock market Blu-ray would be an "underperform"

I can only assume that those Amazon numbers are wrong or they're simply not representative of the overal sales of the title. That's a 1.7:1 ratio, which would be absolutely terrible for a format that claims a 5:1 hardware ratio. I'm no fan of BD, but I'm sure they must have seen better than 1.7:1 sales, especially considering the lower price point for the BD.

*sigh*

The PS3 is primarily a game console. Yes it's a wonderful Blu-ray player, but the main reason for the PS3's existence is gaming. Now yes, there is a 5:1 ratio in terms of hardware, but why would that mean that every single PS3 owner is buying at least 1 blu-ray movie? Whatever amount of PS3 users that are buying blu-ray movies has made a drastic change in the outlook of the Blu-ray format since the consoles release in mid-November.

If someone buys a PS3 on tuesday it might be because of Motorstorm. If someone buys a PS3 on the 13th it might be because of Casino Royale. Without asking each buyer we'll really never know, but we do know that there is a decent percentage that has slingshot blu-ray past hd dvd and the lead looks to stick unless the staunch blu-ray studios suddenly have a reason to switch to the losing side.

It's incredibly juvenile and outright silly to be bent on professing that each PS3 that is sold will be to someone that bought dvds, cds, sacds, or plans on buying Blu-ray, which is the main focus around these parts.

Sheesh man ever heard of proportionality. If Blu-ray has 5x the number of players yet only eeks out 1 3/4 movies for every 1 HD DVD movie that's not much of an impact or at least taking advantage of superior number.

Since the PS3 is primarily bought as a game console, why exactly would the attachment rate of movies for the PS3 be equivalent to a standalone player?

This is even worse when you consider that Blu-ray has ....a solid advantage in movie studios.

Except that at this point in time, the number of total titles for each format is roughly equivalent. Therefore, the fact that Blu-ray is outselling Hd-dvd at this point in time by 2:1 is highly significant, because it shows the effects of PS3 in the market (which btw, has yet to roll out in many parts of the world).

If this was the stock market Blu-ray would be an "underperform"

This isn't the stock market. It's about outselling the competition. Blu-ray has a younger demographic than HD DVD due to the PS3. A movie like Departed should do better on HD DVD, whereas let's say Crank, if it was available on HD DVD would do better on Blu-ray.

Plus, these are amazon numbers. Blu-ray would be ahead considerably in stores.

If this was the stock market Blu-ray would be an "underperform"

Blu-ray has underperformed since launch. But the reality is if you put out a couple million players, you'll inevitably get some sales.

The PS3 is primarily a game console.

In the BDA and among Blu-ray supporters, the PS3 is considered part of the install base - i.e. there is no difference recognized between the stand-alone players and the PS3 in any press releases or promotion in terms of the total install base. Therefore, if the total install base is promoted as such, then the total disc sales and attach rates apply to that install base and there are no excuses.

Since the PS3 is primarily bought as a game console, why exactly would the attachment rate of movies for the PS3 be equivalent to a standalone player?


Except that at this point in time, the number of total titles for each format is roughly equivalent. Therefore, the fact that Blu-ray is outselling Hd-dvd at this point in time by 2:1 is highly significant, because it shows the effects of PS3 in the market (which btw, has yet to roll out in many parts of the world).

Whether or not the PS3 is considered a game console is irrelevant. Sony sold the power of the PS3 to woo Warner and Paramount. The PS3 has had a great effect on the fortunes of Blu-ray but I believe many people other than myself believe this impact should be greater. For if the content was identical on both platforms it becomes hard to see where even a PS3 led Blu-ray would survive.


This isn't the stock market. It's about outselling the competition. Blu-ray has a younger demographic than HD DVD due to the PS3. A movie like Departed should do better on HD DVD, whereas let's say Crank, if it was available on HD DVD would do better on Blu-ray.

Plus, these are amazon numbers. Blu-ray would be ahead considerably in stores.

I'm not sure I believe in the "younger demographic theorem" a $500 console is pretty damn expensive. I believe that younger folks are looking at games more than movies period. There's of course exceptions to every rule. Now that HD DVD is in circuit city and Best Buy is advertising them more (yet often incorrectly regarding specs .grumble). I think the retail sales will reflect much more even numbers. The new 5 disc promotion is nice as well. That'll carry us into the summer well for sales. Who doesn't want $120 of movies along with their player?

I've gotta say...HD DVD is hanging around and "Rope a doping" Blu-ray nicely. I'm thinking that 2.5 million in HD DVD player sales Worldwide pretty much guarantees a stalemate. The inertia from hitting this number should put numbers at 6 million by end of 2008.

No studio is going to rebuke even 4 million players. Especially 4 million players that are virtually assured of having a %100 attach rate.

Blu-ray has underperformed since launch.

Please, tell us how you really feel. :rolleyes:

In the BDA and among Blu-ray supporters, the PS3 is considered part of the install base - i.e. there is no difference recognized between the stand-alone players and the PS3 in any press releases or promotion in terms of the total install base. Therefore, if the total install base is promoted as such, then the total disc sales and attach rates apply to that install base and there are no excuses.

Who's making excuses?...anyone who thinks a game console is going to have an attach rate equal to that of a standalone player needs a quick jolt of reality.

In the same way, HD-DVD supporters who believe the lower attachment rate of PS3 somehow means Hd-DVD is going to "win" needs to do some math because that 2:1 ratio is only going to get worse for HD-DVD as time passes and (1) the difference between PS3s sold and stand-alone hd-dvd players become much wider and (2) the weight of the much stronger blu-ray exclusive studios start exerting themselves.

Whether or not the PS3 is considered a game console is irrelevant. Sony sold the power of the PS3 to woo Warner and Paramount. The PS3 has had a great effect on the fortunes of Blu-ray but I believe many people other than myself believe this impact should be greater. For if the content was identical on both platforms it becomes hard to see where even a PS3 led Blu-ray would survive.
.

Actually, at this point in time, the content IS about equal, and yet blu-ray has a solid 2:1 ratio sales lead. Care to explain that? :p

And btw, as i said, NO ONE in those studios would have believed that the attachment rate of the PS3 would be equivalent to that of a standalone player. It will be by sheer weight of numbers that the PS3 will pull up the blu-ray camp.

Now yes, there is a 5:1 ratio in terms of hardware, but why would that mean that every single PS3 owner is buying at least 1 blu-ray movie?HD DVD supporters really don't have anything left, so these are the kinds of arguments we're going to get from them. They're losing in software sales, they're losing in hardware sales, they're losing in studio participation, they're losing in released movie count, they're losing in CE support and of course they have less bandwidth and capacity.

Their community has morphed into the kind of awkward Macintosh community of the late 90s, where swarms of Apple supporters would repeat the ridiculous claims made by Steve Jobs about the superiority of the PowerPC over the Pentium. And today we have Macs running on Intel. :D

Note the other similarity with Apple supporters. Apple Computer has always marketed the idea that Apple customers are "special" and that the type of computer one buys tells you something substantive about the buyer. It's an explicitly elitist marketing strategy. This "attachment rate" argument is the same. Supposedly, HD DVD supporters are somehow "special" and are somehow a different class of person that is more "devoted" to buying movies. It's an odd argument to make.

For months and months and months, they told us that PS3s wouldn't sell, and that no PS3 owners would buy BD movies. Now with BD sales surpassing HD DVD sales, we get these dumb arguments about attach rates. The overall sales of BD software shows that Sony's PS3 strategy is a success.

Actually, at this point in time, the content IS about equal, and yet blu-ray has a solid 2:1 ratio sales lead. Care to explain that? :p

And btw, as i said, NO ONE in those studios would have believed that the attachment rate of the PS3 would be equivalent to that of a standalone player. It will be by sheer weight of numbers that the PS3 will pull up the blu-ray camp.

What we're saying is a 2:1 ratio sucks when you have a 4x BD player advantage. I don't dispute the figurtes. The release list for HD DVD thusfar in 2007 has been wretched. I'm surprised the ratio isn't 3:1 considering the dearth of HD DVD releases.

What we're saying is a 2:1 ratio sucks when you have a 4x BD player advantage. I don't dispute the figurtes. The release list for HD DVD thusfar in 2007 has been wretched. I'm surprised the ratio isn't 3:1 considering the dearth of HD DVD releases.

Dude, read my lips - the attachment rate of PS3 != attachment rate of standalone players. Therefore, the sales ratio will NOT be 5:1 (even assuming that that ratio is correct).

Unfortunately for Hd-dvd, in the BIGGER PICTURE, as i mentioned, this 2:1 sales ratio will continue to get worse for HD-DVD because:

1. PS3s will continue to be sold at a much higher rate than all HD-dvd stand-alone players

2. The weight of blockbusters released by the blu-ray exclusive studios will start to outmass Hd-dvd releases going forward.

So, there you have it...it makes not one lick of difference that the attachment rate of Ps3 is less than a standalone player because this will be made up (and more) by the fact that the PS3 will outsell all hd-dvd players by larger and larger margins.

Add in the standalone blu-ray players (including a possible low-cost entry level blu-ray player in the summer) and you get the picture.

I've gotta say...HD DVD is hanging around and "Rope a doping" Blu-ray nicely. I'm thinking that 2.5 million in HD DVD player sales Worldwide pretty much guarantees a stalemate. The inertia from hitting this number should put numbers at 6 million by end of 2008.

No studio is going to rebuke even 4 million players. Especially 4 million players that are virtually assured of having a %100 attach rate.

I think we're all in agreement that HD DVD had a 3:1 lead in Nov before the PS3 hit. That's 75:25. In 4 months, it's now reversed to nearly 52% for Blu-ray. And this is without Blu-ray releasing any major titles yet. Considering that the juicy exclusive titles from Universal (If it's confirmed) are mainly in late Aug - September, and Blu-ray is going to release blockbusters in March - May, then I don't see this war lasting beyond this year.

Fact is, catalog titles don't sell well, unless they're blockbusters. I don't see many exclusive new releases from Universal that is going to sell well. Heck Spiderman 3 in September alone will outsell what Universal will offer that month combined.

Holiday 2007 is going to be a key time for the HD formats. There's way too many people sitting on the fence. Their uncertainty over the formats is costing manufacturers and studios money. The consequences of keeping this war going if Blu-ray has a 3:1 or greater lead by Oct will cost a lot of potential new customers. The studios know this. This war will be over by fall 2007 - whether it's for Blu-ray or HD DVD.

For months and months and months, they told us that PS3s wouldn't sell, and that no PS3 owners would buy BD movies. Now with BD sales surpassing HD DVD sales, we get these dumb arguments about attach rates. The overall sales of BD software shows that Sony's PS3 strategy is a success.

Wow....so well put, It's getting to the point where HDDVD fans just argue any point that is favorable to BD, or less favorable to HDDVD. Arguing for the sake of what? loyalty? I believe the HDDVD camp is doing everything within their means to put up a fight, However it seems loyal consumers who bought into the format are fighting harder for it than the actual companies involved. The problem is when you're a handful of companies (mostly B rated or with little to no HT experience) and you're going against the CE giants like, Sony...Panasonic...Samsung & Pioneer, it's no wonder you're up $hit Creek without a paddle. They picked the wrong group to play hardball with, and I think it's time The HDDVD camp looked to get involved in some sort of merger of formats/etc. before they not only lose this format war (and they will), but also lose credibility with consumers abroad.

asj,

Who's making excuses?...anyone who thinks a game console is going to have an attach rate equal to that of a standalone player needs a quick jolt of reality

and yet that is exactly what was claimed in the late summer and fall

we heard the refrain of "just wait until the PS3 arrives' Millions of BD players in peoples homes and those people buying discs. XBdestroya I believe it was predicted that every PS3 owner (or nearly every owner) would buy at least one movie to check it out.

Now, you may not believe that, but lots and lots and lots of people did (e.g., Brian BBS) and they predicted that the PS3 meant the end of HD DVD.

Now that the PS3 is selling below expectations, some people are revising the role of the PS3. You can bet that Sony lined up a lot of studios with the lure of the PS3.

Sheesh man ever heard of proportionality. If Blu-ray has 5x the number of players yet only eeks out 1 3/4 movies for every 1 HD DVD movie that's not much of an impact or at least taking advantage of superior number.


So what is the "attach rate" for the XBox 360? How many owners of a 360 attach the HD-DVD drive?

So what is the "attach rate" for the XBox 360? How many owners of a 360 attach the HD-DVD drive?

Offhand I think the US attach rate is probably around 2% (~120K add-ons in the US sold to a US installed base of ~5M-5.5M or so, that's from memory though in case someone has more concrete stats)...

I know that I passed on the add-on because of the lack of high res audio output options...I'm a gamer first and a HT enthusiast second (heck I was barely an enthusiast until I got my projector a few weeks ago), but if I decide to go HD DVD (honestly not looking likely at this point but who can tell?) I want to do so with an ungimped player.

HD DVD supporters really don't have anything left, so these are the kinds of arguments we're going to get from them. They're losing in software sales, they're losing in hardware sales, they're losing in studio participation, they're losing in released movie count, they're losing in CE support and of course they have less bandwidth and capacity.


Here's that HD DVD reubuttal you mention:

Losing hardware sales on dedicated players? The HD-A2 ranks 9th overall on Amazon.com for all DVD players, SD or HD.

Losing in studio participation? Yes. But the HD DVD studios are not strong armed by the 800 pound Sony gorilla either.

Losing in CE support? HD DVD may have less companies at this time but there's just as many or more HD DVD players out in the wild than BD players.

Less Capactiy? Looks like by the end of 2007, BD will be the capacity loser when the 51 GB HD DVD discs arrive.

Oh, and how's that BD-J and BD-Live coming along?

Even at 2:1 5:1 or what ever the diffrence is so small. Sony makes it seems like they are selling millions of discs which is not the case at all. In most cases theirs only a few thousand more discs sold on BD.
Consdering DVD does sell millions. This war if want to call it that is far from over..

I'D guess the B&M stores sales are higher on HDDVD. Simply do to the fact BB had it on a "error" price of 22.99. The 2 BB near me were sold out within a few hours. Although they only got like 8 copys. Which was a joke. How you gonna sell HD discs when the stock is so low...

Less Capactiy? Looks like by the end of 2007, BD will be the capacity loser when the 51 GB HD DVD discs arrive.

Oh, and how's that BD-J and BD-Live coming along?

The 51gb discs still haven't been aproved and this is straight out of Toshiba denying the rumors. Also, Blu-ray discs still have bandwidth advantage, no matter what, which to me is far more essential than disc space.

Don't believe me? Show me 1 HD DVD that has:

1. Reference Video
2. True HD
3. HD extras

Every HD DVD with true HD seems to have a low VC-1 encode to save on bandwidth.

BD-J right now is ****. But there's a conference for it to show off the new tools coming up. HDi is still king.

I'D guess the B&M stores sales are higher on HDDVD.

B&M is where Blu-ray is killing HD DVD. It's closer online.

The 51gb discs still haven't been aproved and this is straight out of Toshiba denying the rumors. Also, Blu-ray discs still have bandwidth advantage, no matter what, which to me is far more essential than disc space.

Don't believe me? Show me 1 HD DVD that has:
1. Reference Video
2. True HD
3. HD extras

Every HD DVD with true HD seems to have a low VC-1 encode to save on bandwidth.

BD-J right now is ****. But there's a conference for it to show off the new tools coming up. HDi is still king.

No I don't believe you. Bandwidth is overyhyped. You've copped Darins argument here. True HD is a studio choice. I'm sure there are movies that could have had True HD tracks but for whatever reason some studios don't want to utilize it. I don't give a damn about HD extras. I watch movies not extras.

No I don't believe you. Bandwidth is overyhyped. You've copped Darins argument here. True HD is a studio choice. I'm sure there are movies that could have had True HD tracks but for whatever reason some studios don't want to utilize it. I don't give a damn about HD extras. I watch movies not extras.

Bandwidth (or the lack of it...) is the one fatal flaw of HD-DVD that can't be ignored forever. It effects every decision as to how a title is authored and the hard limit is a crippling flaw that never goes away unless the HD-DVD spec is changed to overcome it. If all the HD-DVD supporters would just admit to this fact and move to fix it instead of defending poor technology decisions at least then honesty could come back to the discussion instead of all the lies that has colored the situation as it as been portrayed up until now.
All,

The maximum mux rate may be HD-DVD's downfall and somewhat affected by this discussion. The DVD Forum arrived at a peak mux rate of 30.24Mbps. This means all the video, audio, PIP/subvideo, subtitling, and iHD cannot exceed 30.24Mbps at a given point. While I'm sure this was a conservative number to support the read speed capable only from the first gen roms (like DVD and 9.8Mbps is WAY below current 16x drives ability), it is nonetheless WAY lower than the 54Mbps PBR capable by BD. Again, not in either camp, but if I were Toshiba, I'd find a way to get that number up. Fast.

BD, on 50GB discs, can have 3 lossless 16/48's with a PBR in the 3Mbps range each, 2 Subvideos in the 4-5Mbps PBR range each, and a VC-1 Feature with a 30Mbps PBR, and still have room for stereo commentary tracks at 224Kbps PBR each and 1Mbps worth of subtitles (about 31 subtitle tracks).

Amir,

VC-1 is hitting your theoretical 10-12Mbps ABR on titles being released very soon. All of them are less than 5 years old. However, it's also hitting your 19-27Mbps dreaded PBR.

Cjplay.
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=7898249&&#post7898249

b2b

If all the HD-DVD supporters would just admit to this fact and move to fix it instead of defending poor technology decisions at least then honesty could come back to the discussion instead of all the lies that has colored the situation as it as been portrayed up until now.



The problem is, HD DVD would be in the same position as BD is with regards to cost. The public, which eventually has to start buying these things, isn't interested in paying more for improvements they can't detect. And whatever improvements could be made from getting higher bitrate would be absolutetly undetectable to 99% of the viewing public. So it's no benefit to them.

We are selling the public improvements they never asked for and don't notice, at a price they don't want to pay, and then we wonder why the public isn't buying into these new formats.

The fact is, from HD DVD's point of view, changing the bitrate is the absolutely worst thing they can do if they want mass adoption. Almost no one in the public can detect anyting above DD+ - especially in a normal at home setup. No one would notice any difference in PQ.

Changing the bit rate now would only add delay and cost to a product, and wouldn't result in any noticable improvement.

Whether or not the PS3 is considered a game console is irrelevant. Sony sold the power of the PS3 to woo Warner and Paramount. The PS3 has had a great effect on the fortunes of Blu-ray but I believe many people other than myself believe this impact should be greater. For if the content was identical on both platforms it becomes hard to see where even a PS3 led Blu-ray would survive.


I'm not sure I believe in the "younger demographic theorem" a $500 console is pretty damn expensive. I believe that younger folks are looking at games more than movies period. There's of course exceptions to every rule. Now that HD DVD is in circuit city and Best Buy is advertising them more (yet often incorrectly regarding specs .grumble). I think the retail sales will reflect much more even numbers. The new 5 disc promotion is nice as well. That'll carry us into the summer well for sales. Who doesn't want $120 of movies along with their player?

I've gotta say...HD DVD is hanging around and "Rope a doping" Blu-ray nicely. I'm thinking that 2.5 million in HD DVD player sales Worldwide pretty much guarantees a stalemate. The inertia from hitting this number should put numbers at 6 million by end of 2008.

No studio is going to rebuke even 4 million players. Especially 4 million players that are virtually assured of having a %100 attach rate.

Blah, blah, blah.

Are you emjoying the month with no new releases yet? February 27th - March 27th.

It's not a Rope a Dope. Yeah right. I love this.

People keep talking about the PS3 attach rate, well for a player that's been out for 3 months it has not had the chance to garner much of one. HD-DVD always likes to talk about their attach rate.

1) They have very few players on the market and mostly movie buffs only, WTF do they think the attach rate will look like?
2) A lot of those players have been out since when April? Of course it's likely to have higher attach rates.

You are aware every PS3 comes with a significant amount of Blu-ray movie rebates and always have. If anything Blu-ray has decimated HD-DVDs marketing, I mean Blu-rays marketing has just been everywhere and better. Yeah, it's a rope a dope of 200 companies, I'm sure they are gonna be bled dry. Were talking multi-billion dollar companies here, not likely that they all go bankrupt over this. Gimme a break.

I hear a lot of *if* this and *if* that. But it's not that way is it?

The fact is the BDA positioned themselves better than HD-DVD. I hear a lot of HD-DVD enthusiasts rationalizing a boatload of things. Like being outsold 2+ :1 is not a big deal, so what is practically ALL of Universals releases are on COMBOS and will cost MORE than practically every single Blu-ray movie, so what if we have an ENTIRE MONTH with NO NEW releases.

To me the BDA has taken the steps to assure its supporters that they are in it to win it and also provide good content.

1) They have made sure plenty of players are available for around 500 bucks. Plus guess what, it's a great gaming system as well. (Didn't NPD say the reason stand alone sales of players were almost dead even HD-DVD to Blu-ray was because Toshiba was "UNABLE" to provide enough players and due to shortages people were more willing to buy more expensive Blu-ray players rather than wait on Toshiba to get its act together)

2) They have made sure they have almost all the content available on their format.

3) The have made Blu-ray into a storage medium, gaming medium, and movie medium (much like another winner, DVD). HD-DVD is only in it for movies?

4) They have given out a ton of deals, a lot more than HD-DVD IMO. There are deals all the time, coupons, rebates.

5) They have done a way better job marketing the format. Whens the last time you saw an HD-DVD commercial? I saw one for Departed, but all it said was coming to DVD and "Hi-def"

On Blu-ray commercials they have started to replace the DVD box with a box that only has the Blu-ray logo on it. Clever.

You can see they have also made their format well recognized at stores, prominently displayed, easily available, well stocked.

To me HD-DVD has done a joke of a job and left valuable costumers behind. That's all I would need to choose a format.

What we're saying is a 2:1 ratio sucks when you have a 4x BD player advantage. I don't dispute the figurtes. The release list for HD DVD thusfar in 2007 has been wretched. I'm surprised the ratio isn't 3:1 considering the dearth of HD DVD releases.

it doesn't matter if you win by an inch or a mile...winning, is winning...lol

Blah, blah, blah.

Are you emjoying the month with no new releases yet? February 27th - March 27th.


it's not bothering him, he doesn't own an HDTV let alone an HDDVD player.
He just bought a few HDDVD's to "have" when the time is right..

Murch, when is the time gonna be right?

back on topic, in my sample size of 1, i chose the blu ray version of the departed over the hd dvd version strictly based on cost. the combo hd dvd version was $5 more. now, that may be a silly reason on the surface of it since we're all running around with hdtvs and $1000+ hddvd/bd players, but i simply refuse to pay more for a version of the movie i'll never use...

combo discs are going to kill hd dvd unless they can bring the costs down. remember, price was the big factor toshiba was touting in this battle...

A few new games out for the PS3 will no doubt have taken up some moolah from the PS3 buying people. Virtua Fighter 5 and Formula 1 2006 Championship Edition , the latter of which I pre-ordered from Amazon for US$59.95.No I don't believe you. Bandwidth is overyhyped. You've copped Darins argument here. True HD is a studio choice. I'm sure there are movies that could have had True HD tracks but for whatever reason some studios don't want to utilize it. I don't give a damn about HD extras. I watch movies not extras.
King Kong could have had it, but they would have needed to compress a further 4GB out of the video in order to do it.
Would you have sacrificed that?
On Blu-ray King Kong could have had any lossless codec and still had plenty of room for extras.
Me, I'm in the same boat as you when it comes to extras - I don't care for them at all. I have 6 LOTR discs of extras that have never even been removed from their casing.

Bandwidth (or the lack of it...) is the one fatal flaw of HD-DVD that can't be ignored forever. It effects every decision as to how a title is authored and the hard limit is a crippling flaw that never goes away unless the HD-DVD spec is changed to overcome it. If all the HD-DVD supporters would just admit to this fact and move to fix it instead of defending poor technology decisions at least then honesty could come back to the discussion instead of all the lies that has colored the situation as it as been portrayed up until now.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=7898249&&#post7898249

b2b
This may be why the Blu-ray version of NIN's disc was said to be slightly better video quality.
I noticed peaks of 40 Mbps on the VC-1 Blu-ray encoding over the weekend.

it doesn't matter if you win by an inch or a mile...winning, is winning...lol

I love that movie.

I love that movie.

Hey, I only live life a quarter-mile at a time, baby!

Just keep the bustah out of here is all I ask.

and yet that is exactly what was claimed in the late summer and fall

I have never once heard anyone on this forum predict that the PS3 would have equal attach rates with standalone players, what are you talking about.

It is unbelievable that people are using "attach rates" as a litmus test for success when the biggest selling player is bought primarily for games. The only thing that matters is $, and sales = $.

Forget the fantasy and what if scenario if "HD DVD had more players out there it would be winning." What's the point in debating if you are just going to bring up "what if" fantasy scenarios and make things up that are not currently happening.

If one format is selling 2:1, it is selling 2:1. 'Nuff said. It is selling double the amount of movies and dare I say has a pretty extreme lead no matter how they got there. If Blu-ray is winning by giving away free players to the health care uninsured they are still winning.

Double the sales even in a shallow pool is nothing to sneeze at especially when it is clear where the momentum is. Even if the PS3 has a poor attach rate the sheer volume of sales was enough to get Blu-ray from losing 3:1 to now winning 2:1. What would have been the point of talking "who is winning attach rates" during this momentum change that, mind you, is still happening? Was HD DVD winning as the PS3 was selling hundreds of thousands of units BECAUSE HD DVD had a "higher attach rate?" Is that how it works now? Sales don't matter, it's just about the attach rates, the fact that the biggest selling player is also used for games be damned?

The only reason this same mantra has to be repeated over and over again is because some people have hardened their hearts and just won't listen. Now it is about finding ANYTHING POSSIBLE of [insert your favorite format here] that it is "winning" at no matter how irrelevant it may be. Come on guys, don't sell your intelligence short here. The funny bottom line is that the only thing a higher attach rate shows is which side doesn't have the PS3 at the moment.

What we're saying is a 2:1 ratio sucks when you have a 4x BD player advantage.I can't believe what this place is turning into as far as people seeming to turn off part of their brains. If PS3s end up with an attachment ratio that is 50% of standalone players that would be way higher than most here would have predicted anytime in 2006 and HD DVD would be in some real trouble with only double the attachment rate of a game system with built in movie playing capability (as opposed to the strategy Microsoft took where XBOX360s don't count unless people specifically purchase the HD disc playing part, meaning that only about 3% of XBOX360s count currently).

Serious question. Six months to a year ago, what did you think the relative attachment rates for the PS3 would be compared to standalone players? We were discussing numbers like 10% or 20% around here with my memory being that many would have taken the under 10% figure. Anybody claiming 50% would have been laughed at as way too optomistic for it. rdjam even predicted about 10% for PS3s, but about 30% of XBOX360 owners would buy the add-on for it.

And I don't care what Sony claims as far as 80%, as far as looking at what we should know and not know. Sure that shows that we shouldn't numbers they give out like that as meaning reality will match them, but doesn't mean we should turn our brains off.

If you were following RCA's CED technology vs VHS would you have claimed that CED was doing well because they were selling more discs per player than they expected, even though they were selling less players than expected? One person here might have claimed that that public showed that they prefered CED to VHS because of CED's attachment rate.
No I don't believe you. Bandwidth is overyhyped. You've copped Darins argument here. Sorry, but you are the same person who claimed that hand tuning was going away with VC-1. Showed me that you really don't know much about these codecs and encoding for these formats.

--Darin

Does that mean that Warner is more likely to drop HD DVD than Blu-ray?

What we're saying is a 2:1 ratio sucks when you have a 4x BD player advantage. I don't dispute the figurtes. The release list for HD DVD thusfar in 2007 has been wretched. I'm surprised the ratio isn't 3:1 considering the dearth of HD DVD releases.

You might think 2:1 sucks, but if it continues long enough, it will sink HD DVD.

I calculated the graphs solely for Amazon.com this week and got the following numbers.

Blu-ray - 2565
HD DVD - 1488

How did you account for replishment of inventory?

Here is the inventory chart for Departed on BD

http://www.eproductwars.com/asinsaleshistory.cfm?db=dvd&asin=B000M5AJQI

And here it is for HD DVD

http://www.eproductwars.com/asinsaleshistory.cfm?db=dvd&asin=B000M5AJQ8

Click on the chart on the right to activate the control.

It's not clear how someone can come up with concrete numbers by looking at these charts. Seems like a WAG to me (unless you were looking at some other chart) ;)

The loveone,

If one format is selling 2:1, it is selling 2:1. 'Nuff said. It is selling double the amount of movies and dare I say has a pretty extreme lead no matter how they got there.

A 2:1 ratio is not extreme depending on the number of items. If you have 2 items and I have 1, then that is not an extreme lead.

People talk about winning and domination and studios switching positions, and right now it is all nonsense, simply because there isnt enough money involved to make them switch.

The absolute difference between the two formats in terms of discs sold is not that great, especially in the context of SD DVD disc sales.

All of these companies have a plan or strategy regarding their support of one or the other formats, or both at the same time. IMO, I doubt that any of the companies see anything in the numbers that would justify changing positions, especially over a 3-4 month period.

This is going to go one for quite awhile, and people should get used to it.

as to your comment

I have never once heard anyone on this forum predict that the PS3 would have equal attach rates with standalone players, what are you talking about.

You are yet another new person (there seem to be alot of new diehard BD fans on the board). Go back and search the thread from summer and fall of 2006. Xbdestroya predicted that every PS3 owner (or nearly every single one) would buy at least 1 BD movie, just to try it out. People like Brian BBS were talking about attach rates of 50% or more.

How did you account for replishment of inventory?
The graphs are interactive. You can measure from peak to peak as each replenishment comes in.
If you hold the cursor over the peaks it actually tells you the number as well instead of guessing.

I can't believe what this place is turning into as far as people seeming to turn off part of their brains. If PS3s end up with an attachment ratio that is 50% of standalone players that would be way higher than most here would have predicted anytime in 2006 and HD DVD would be in some real trouble with only double the attachment rate of a game system with built in movie playing capability (as opposed to the strategy Microsoft took where XBOX360s don't count unless people specifically purchase the HD disc playing part, meaning that only about 3% of XBOX360s count currently).

Serious question. Six months to a year ago, what did you think the relative attachment rates for the PS3 would be compared to standalone players? We were discussing numbers like 10% or 20% around here with my memory being that many would have taken the under 10% figure. Anybody claiming 50% would have been laughed at as way too optomistic for it. rdjam even predicted about 10% for PS3s, but about 30% of XBOX360 owners would buy the add-on for it.

And I don't care what Sony claims as far as 80%, as far as looking at what we should know and not know. Sure that shows that we shouldn't numbers they give out like that as meaning reality will match them, but doesn't mean we should turn our brains off.

If you were following RCA's CED technology vs VHS would you have claimed that CED was doing well because they were selling more discs per player than they expected, even though they were selling less players than expected? One person here might have claimed that that public showed that they prefered CED to VHS because of CED's attachment rate.
Sorry, but you are the same person who claimed that hand tuning was going away with VC-1. Showed me that you really don't know much about these codecs and encoding for these formats.

--Darin

Darin, last year no one would have predicted that Sony, Samsung, Panny and Pioneer would put out standalone players that would sell so few units, or that Toshiba would have the best selling HD stand alone player in either format.

Attachment rate is only relevant to the case of the PS3 because of the degree to which it is subsidized. The attachment rate of the PS3 is fundamental to the overall business viability of the format. Ford and Chevy sell a lot of cars, but they are sold at a price that does not translate to a viable business model...

In the case of the PS3, attachment rate is important because the whole premise of the PS3 is that Sony is subsidizing hardware to make it up on software.

This is a fundamental issue that most BD supporters would rather go away - sort of like the inconvenient truth :)

The graphs are interactive. You can measure from peak to peak as each replenishment comes in.
If you hold the cursor over the peaks it actually tells you the number as well instead of guessing.

That is what I tried and it is impossible to account for replenishment in here.

http://www.eproductwars.com/asinsaleshistory.cfm?db=dvd&asin=B000M5AJQI

or here

http://www.eproductwars.com/asinsaleshistory.cfm?db=dvd&asin=B000M5AJQ8

The HD DVD graph slopes upwards!!!!

I can't believe we are discussing 2:1 sales ratio based on interpreting these graphs :eek:

You might think 2:1 sucks, but if it continues long enough, it will sink HD DVD.

I don't know. Maybe, but that means that BD has 67% of the market. That's a strong lead, but I don't know if that alone would sink HD DVD. I'm sure Mac's don't make up 67% of the market yet they survive, for example.

Darin, last year no one would have predicted that Sony, Samsung, Panny and Pioneer would put out standalone players that would sell so few units, or that Toshiba would have the best selling HD stand alone player in either format.Really? I said right here that I could see one $499 player model outselling something like eight $999 and up players. I don't see how anybody can be surprised that Toshiba has the best selling standalone when they priced it to compete with the PS3 (which we knew by the 2nd week of January 2006).
Attachment rate is only relevant to the case of the PS3 because of the degree to which it is subsidized. The attachment rate of the PS3 is fundamental to the overall business viability of the format.And anybody who understands this war at all should understand that it doesn't need even close to the same attachment rate as $499 Toshibas and $199 XBOX360 add-ons to sell more movies than them. It is those who act like the attachment rate should be the same as standalone players who either don't comprehend the issues or are fooling people. Those who look at it and say that the attachment rate should be over x:1 or under x:1 (where x is a number higher than 1) are the people being realistic.
This is a fundamental issue that most BD supporters would rather go away - sort of like the inconvenient truth :)I don't agree. The smart BD supporters know that the PS3 is subsidized and this would have likely been true whether it had a BD player in it or just a DVD player. But they would like people to deal with the reality of attachment rates instead of this fantasy about it needing the same attachment rates as standalone players.

Is this really that hard to understand? As skogan and I have said in the past, those who think attachment rates are the most important thing better hope that Microsoft doesn't include an HD DVD drive in the XBOX360 in the future, as that could kill the format. :)

--Darin

I don't know. Maybe, but that means that BD has 67% of the market. That's a strong lead, but I don't know if that alone would sink HD DVD. I'm sure Mac's don't make up 67% of the market yet they survive, for example.If one of these formats grabs 67% of the market and holds it throughout the holiday 2006 season, I would think that it would be pretty difficult for exclusive studios on the 33% side to stay exclusive (other than Sony who would have pressure, but likely more incentive to stay exclusive). I should say that it is a little more difficult than this because it depends on how individual titles are selling, but 2:1 sustained for the 2nd half of a year would seem to apply quite a bit of pressure. Not as much as 3:1 through a holiday season of course, where studio executives on the 25% side seemingly would have to have pretty good answers for why they wouldn't join the 75% side, but still quite a bit.

--Darin

I don't know. Maybe, but that means that BD has 67% of the market. That's a strong lead, but I don't know if that alone would sink HD DVD. I'm sure Mac's don't make up 67% of the market yet they survive, for example.

Just to elaborate, I don't think 2:1 in and of itself would sink it, but the continued "word of mouth" and media articles of "2:1" would get it imbedded in many people's heads....hence, many people and new consumers will start thinking to just go Blu-ray since it sells twice as much software......with 2:1 eventually becoming 3:1, etc. In addition, to it having all major studio support except Universal (who would likely support Blu-ray by that point in time).

Really? I said right here that I could see one $499 player model outselling something like eight $999 and up players. I don't see how anybody can be surprised that Toshiba has the best selling standalone when they priced it to compete with the PS3 (which we knew by the 2nd week of January 2006).
And anybody who understands this war at all should understand that it doesn't need even close to the same attachment rate as $499 Toshibas and $199 XBOX360 add-ons to sell more movies than them. It is those who act like the attachment rate should be the same as standalone players who either don't comprehend the issues or are fooling people. Those who look at it and say that the attachment rate should be over x:1 or under x:1 (where x is a number higher than 1) are the people being realistic.
I don't agree. The smart BD supporters know that the PS3 is subsidized and this would have likely been true whether it had a BD player in it or just a DVD player. But they would like people to deal with the reality of attachment rates instead of this fantasy about it needing the same attachment rates as standalone players.

Is this really that hard to understand? As skogan and I have said in the past, those who think attachment rates are the most important thing better hope that Microsoft doesn't include an HD DVD drive in the XBOX360 in the future, as that could kill the format. :)

--Darin

Attachment rate is important only if you are relying on a subsidized hardware to sell software and recover costs that way. Even in the case of HD DVD, if an internal drive based subsidized xbox 360 is the primary source of software sales, the attachment rate will be important. If you are not relying on subsidized hardware, attachment rate is mostly a meaningless metric. However, with a subsidized hardware, it matters. Sony cares about the game attachment rate for the PS3, and MSFT cares about the game attachment rate for the xbox 360. That's just the way it is...Denon, does not care about the attachment rate for its DVD players since they are not subsidized....

Attachment rate is important only if you are relying on a subsidized hardware to sell software and recover costs that way. Even in the case of HD DVD, if an internal drive based subsidized xbox 360 is the primary source of software sales, the attachment rate will be important. If you are not relying on subsidized hardware, attachment rate is mostly a meaningless metric. However, with a subsidized hardware, it matters. Sony cares about the game attachment rate for the PS3, and MSFT cares about the game attachment rate for the xbox 360. That's just the way it is...Denon, does not care about the attachment rate for its DVD players since they are not subsidized....Denon doesn't care about attachment rate because they don't get a kickback. Subsidized or not doesn't matter to whether the company cares about the attachment rate. If Microsoft can get the cost of building XBOX360s down to where they aren't subsidized, they won't stop caring about attachment rates.

And the above is only relative to the company making the player. Toshiba cares about attachment rates for DVD players (including those made by Denon) because they make money on the DVDs, but they don't care about attachment rates in a vacuum. They care about them in relation to total sales.

Much the same thing here. Even the smart people in the industry who care about attachment rates care about them in relation to other data. For instance, not with mistaken assumptions about them needing to be 1:1 or anything even close to that when discussing two different kinds of devices.

--Darin

You are yet another new person (there seem to be alot of new diehard BD fans on the board). Go back and search the thread from summer and fall of 2006. Xbdestroya predicted that every PS3 owner (or nearly every single one) would buy at least 1 BD movie, just to try it out. People like Brian BBS were talking about attach rates of 50% or more.

Give me a timeframe. Are they talking over the lifetime of the product, or just the first 3 months like we are at now? If it were over the lifetime of the product or the first year of the product I would have to agree with both of them. If we are supposed to talk about attach rates of a product that has only been out 3 months then it would be prudent to wait a while. Either way there is no doubt the PS3 has put Blu-ray ahead by a pretty healthy margin already, only 3 months into its lifetime. Pretty incredible.

That is what I tried and it is impossible to account for replenishment in here.

http://www.eproductwars.com/asinsaleshistory.cfm?db=dvd&asin=B000M5AJQI

or here

http://www.eproductwars.com/asinsaleshistory.cfm?db=dvd&asin=B000M5AJQ8

The HD DVD graph slopes upwards!!!!

I can't believe we are discussing 2:1 sales ratio based on interpreting these graphs :eek:
Fortunately when I calculated the graphs for the first time, the date started was up to release date on February 13th. Now you can only go back to the 26th.

You can count for replenishment like so.

Where did it replenish up to?
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/8460/departedtopjz9.jpg

Where did it drop down to?
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/7434/departedbottomwk9.jpg

So 851 - 414 is 437. By measuring the peaks you can determing the # of titles sold with fair accuracy. That's how those numbers were reached.

I am afraid your number of sales is a gross guesstimate, on the HD DVD side, it's not even possible to do what you show on the BD graph.

I too believe the BD version sold more, but we don't know by what ratio.

Amazon sales ranks have little to do with the number of units sold in any kind of linear fashion. You can't just subtract like this and come up with any kind of meaningful number.

People need to stop the needless fighting. Seriously. What´s all that talk about attachrates etc. good for? You think you are going to change somebody´s mind with that? :confused: And I´m talking to both sides!

The only thing that really matters in this war are the movie sales numbers. Both formats deliver pretty much the same quality now. If Blu-Ray keeps climbing at the same rate and HD DVD stays where it is, HD DVD loses. It´s as simple as that
and I am saying that as an HD DVD supporter!

There is a huge sale (-50%) on a lot of Blu-Rays right now on Amazon. You can already see that on the sales rank-charts. The Blu-Ray graph just jumped way up. Now I could spin this and say: "Well of course they are selling! They are on sale! It´s not fair!" But what good would that do? It means that Blu-Ray discs are selling. And the people who are buying these will probably like what they get and buy even more. And tell their friends.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

Click on "show all" at the "Salesrank of top 10 products" and the "# in the top 10000" chart and you can see how Blu-Ray has been catching up to HD DVD over the last 6 months.

HD DVD has not lost yet but I admit: This is the first day I am considering the option of selling my ad-on drive and my 15 HD DVDs on eBay. As long as I still get some money for them.

I am not saying that I am going to do that but I want to consider all options. In case this trend continues all through 2007.

And some HD DVD supporters may not say it out loud but the lack of new releases hurts. Of course "The Departed" is selling not bad on HD DVD. What else is there to buy? Blu-Ray currently has more releases and "The Departed" is still selling better. Has anyone looked at it that way?
Maybe it´s an opportunity to just stop buying HD DVDs for a few months and wait and see. There are very few new interesting releases any way. :mad:
To me it almost seems as if the studios are suddenly insecure about HD DVD´s future. I hope that the format can keep up with Blu-Ray. I loved the format so far but right now it´s just sitting there, waiting to be overtaken by Blu-Ray´s shere numbers.

And numbers are the only thing that matters in this format war. ;)


Try not to hate me too much, fellow HD DVD supporter and consider calmly all I have said. This is not religion. It´s home video standards. :)

To me it almost seems as if the studios are suddenly insecure about HD DVD´s future. I hope that the format can keep up with Blu-Ray. I loved the format so far but right now it´s just sitting there, waiting to be overtaken by Blu-Ray´s shere numbers.

It already has been overtaken*. Just so you know. :D

* Data from USA, probably from Japan, will be in Europe when the PS3 launches. China looks like it's going its own way, but they'll be Blu too in the end. ;)

With Blu Ray Departed outselling HD-DVD departed, when there is a drought in HD-DVDs shows HD-DVD is in serious trouble. Departed is the #1 HD-DVD, but #10 Blu Ray and the Blu Ray version is still outselling the HD-DVD version with lots more to choose from.

It is hard to imagine what can reverse this trend, it will only accelerate as people realize it. The only thing that could save HD-DVD is very cheap players flooding the market.

Amazon sales ranks have little to do with the number of units sold in any kind of linear fashion. You can't just subtract like this and come up with any kind of meaningful number.
Sorry Mark but no-one's calculating based on sales ranks - only on quantity on hand. The "sales rank" in there is actually quantity on hand, it's just not labelled properly. Try it yourself and you'll see what I mean.
I am afraid your number of sales is a gross guesstimate, on the HD DVD side, it's not even possible to do what you show on the BD graph.
I too believe the BD version sold more, but we don't know by what ratio.
I don't happen to agree with you on that.
You can move the cursor along and see where quantities are going. Whenever it updates, you write the number down. It certainly can not be considered a "gross" guesstimate in any manner of speaking.
As I previously stated, the slow restocking of HD DVD was not like that when I did the graphs on the first week of sales.

With Blu Ray Departed outselling HD-DVD departed, when there is a drought in HD-DVDs shows HD-DVD is in serious trouble. Departed is the #1 HD-DVD, but #10 Blu Ray and the Blu Ray version is still outselling the HD-DVD version with lots more to choose from.

It is hard to imagine what can reverse this trend, it will only accelerate as people realize it. The only thing that could save HD-DVD is very cheap players flooding the market.

Why is HD-DVD in serious trouble? Do you really think that the sales for one title is going to make everyone who has invested in HD-DVD fold their tents? Was Sony going to pull BluRay because of the inital HD-DVD sales lead?

BluRay could outsell HD-DVD software for the next two years but it doesn't mean the format will die.

With Blu Ray Departed outselling HD-DVD departed, when there is a drought in HD-DVDs shows HD-DVD is in serious trouble. Departed is the #1 HD-DVD, but #10 Blu Ray and the Blu Ray version is still outselling the HD-DVD version with lots more to choose from.

It is hard to imagine what can reverse this trend, it will only accelerate as people realize it. The only thing that could save HD-DVD is very cheap players flooding the market.

Won't work if they are cheap BLU-RAY players :D

It is only the end of the first quarter and blu ray recovered a fumble, that is it. We are early in this war considering J6p hasn't even entered into the equation. By the end of summer when more stand alones come out and more releases are announced. Things will begin to heat up.

Sorry Mark but no-one's calculating based on sales ranks - only on quantity on hand. The "sales rank" in there is actually quantity on hand, it's just not labelled properly. Try it yourself and you'll see what I mean.

I don't happen to agree with you on that.
You can move the cursor along and see where quantities are going. Whenever it updates, you write the number down. It certainly can not be considered a "gross" guesstimate in any manner of speaking.
As I previously stated, the slow restocking of HD DVD was not like that when I did the graphs on the first week of sales.

Can someone click through the stock shown on this chart and come up with sales!

For the period between 03-01 to 03-04 the HD DVD stock went from 1347 to 1357! There is nothing to indicate that replishment took place since there isn't a spike of any kind. Are you saying that during these three days, Amazon sold no copies of The Departed.

http://www.eproductwars.com/asinsaleshistory.cfm?db=dvd&asin=B000M5AJQ8

I am not saying that you are deliberately trying to mislead anyone, but your contention that you know how many units were sold by looking at the stock on hand chart on Amazon is just not possible. Are you looking at some other type of chart :confused:

It is only the end of the first quarter and blu ray recovered a fumble, that is it. We are early in this war considering J6p hasn't even entered into the equation. By the end of summer when more stand alones come out and more releases are announced. Things will begin to heat up.

I think some J6Ps are in on the blu-ray side. In the form of the PS3. It may be expensive at 500 dollars, but even poor people are willing to stretch for must have items. And some pretty average families would probably get their kids a PS3 if they really wanted it.

It is only the end of the first quarter and blu ray recovered a fumble, that is it. We are early in this war considering J6p hasn't even entered into the equation. By the end of summer when more stand alones come out and more releases are announced. Things will begin to heat up.

Who exactly is J6p? Is there some magical denominator that somehow will say, hey, j6p has come in the room!

I'd say pulling in 20% of the top 100 DVDs OVERALL, and having FOUR titles in or right next to the Top 20 in amazon.com qualifies as having at least some j6p's in the room.... :)

In other words, the format war will be won and lost even before the vast majority of people come into the fold....

Who exactly is J6p? Is there some magical denominator that somehow will say, hey, j6p has come in the room!

I'd say pulling in 20% of the top 100 DVDs OVERALL, and having FOUR titles in or right next to the Top 20 in amazon.com qualifies as having at least some j6p's in the room.... :)

In other words, the format war will be won and lost even before the vast majority of people come into the fold....


:rolleyes:

You keep on telling yourself that. It's easy to do I guess in this insular world that so many people here and other enthusiast forums often live in. Price matters. If you don't believe me, look at the Amazon Bluray sale thread.

Bluray has benefited from the launch frenzy of PS3's. In the short term that's fine, but what about longer term? Very little I'd say unless Sony can lower prices appreciably. The problem that the PS3, and by default Bluray, has is that once all of the die-hards have bought in the initial rush, you're left with a console that has poor legs at its current price. The vast majority of people, you know, J6P, the same demographic that made the PS2 so successful, WILL NOT pay that much for a PS3. This isn’t a zero-sum game, but if Toshiba price cuts their players, then Bluray’s install base advantage might not be so clear cut. Only time will tell.

So, unless more affordable Bluray players release to market and no, I'm not talking about $500-$600 standalones or PS3's, then what we're looking at in my estimation is a launch bubble for Bluray. Will Bluray maintain its sales edge? Possibly, but it’s too early to tell. Will it contribute to a widening sales gap? Again, nobody knows at this point. A lot will depend upon Toshiba.

We're way too early in the game to know how this will play out. We're like three minutes into the 1st QTR of a football game and the score is 6-3. Hey, look at that score; it represents a 2:1 ratio. What does it tell us? Nyet. The sales data being trumpeted about by the Bluray crowd right now represents nothing more than a snap-shot in time. It is not predictive of well, anything at this point.

In fact, any pronouncement of victory at this point or six months ago when Bluray was getting trounced, is either fan-induced delusion or marketing drivel IMO.

In fact, any pronouncement of victory at this point or six months ago when Bluray was getting trounced, is either fan-induced delusion or marketing drivel IMO.

6 months ago means absolutely nothing. Why do you think Fox waited months before releasing anything? You think they were'nt aware of HD DVD's lead? The gameplan was the same: "let the PS3 loose and everyone start releasing titles and the format war is pretty much decided." I pity those who didn't see this coming.

I've been waiting for someone to tell me this. I have invested in both formats, but how does HD DVD expect to win? Cheap Chinese players? Who's to say Blu-ray won't do that as well?

People here keep talking about J6P. J6p is too busy looking at the $10 DVD bin to care.

6 months ago means absolutely nothing. Why do you think Fox waited months before releasing anything? You think they were'nt aware of HD DVD's lead? The gameplan was the same: "let the PS3 loose and everyone start releasing titles and the format war is pretty much decided." I pity those who didn't see this coming.

I've been waiting for someone to tell me this. I have invested in both formats, but how does HD DVD expect to win? Cheap Chinese players? Who's to say Blu-ray won't do that as well?

People here keep talking about J6P. J6p is too busy looking at the $10 DVD bin to care.

Why do you care so much who wins? It's like a religious arguement with you. Both formats are going to be around for a few years. Learn to accept it and enjoy what you getting from both. We here at AVS are not going to make a difference in this thing. Surely you see that. We are a very small minority inside an even smaller minority that even care about HD disks right now.

Until player prices drop to around $200.00 this war is between the members of this and other forums. Nothing more.

eight,

Cheap Chinese players?

That would be part of the answer. If the chinese introduce a $199 player for sure, or even a $299 player then they would fly off the shelves. Did you read the $299 Sony thread. All the BD supporters were claiming this would end things for sure because they would fly off the shelves.


Who's to say Blu-ray won't do that as well?

Because the current manufacturers couldnt make any money off it. If they could do it, they would have done it already. Same with Toshiba. If they could produce an economically viable machine for $299 they would do it. Sony cant do it because they are subsidizing the PS3, and if they did the same for a standalone player, the other manufacturers would probably defect and never listen to Sony again.

eight,



That would be part of the answer. If the chinese introduce a $199 player for sure, or even a $299 player then they would fly off the shelves. Did you read the $299 Sony thread. All the BD supporters were claiming this would end things for sure because they would fly off the shelves.

Because the current manufacturers couldnt make any money off it. If they could do it, they would have done it already. Same with Toshiba. If they could produce an economically viable machine for $299 they would do it. Sony cant do it because they are subsidizing the PS3, and if they did the same for a standalone player, the other manufacturers would probably defect and never listen to Sony again.

Toshiba doesn't produce an economically viable machine now. They subsidize their players very heavily. Their policy is low price on the machine to sell discs.

The problem is even if the HD-DVD players were cheaper they don't have the content to drive the sales they need. That's why Blu-ray has been able to sell as many stand alone players as HD-DVD has though at higher prices. Content. That's why price is much more important for blu-ray on players than it is for HD-DVD. Low priced blu-ray players would end this war pretty effectively.

Shinco to the rescue!!!!!

Content! HD DVD has no movies for almost the entire month of March...and then the only exclusive biggie is the whopper of a failure, 'Children of Men'.

Cheap Chinese players...?Give me a break! Only in a Bizzaro world where the Blu Ray eclusive studios supported only HD DVD (and vice versa) would bail out HD DVD.

Personally, I don't think the likes fo Shinco or Lite-On and other '3rd world' brands are going to appeal to any consumer - even at a big discount. The electronics names that consumers have all known for decades and scene at Sears, BB, etc (Pioneer, Panasonic, Sony, Philips, Samsung, etc) are all over Blu Ray yet won't touch HD DVD with a hardware product.

OOhh..Casino Royale and Borat!

Shinco to the rescue!!!!!

Content! HD DVD has no movies for almost the entire month of March...and then the only exclusive biggie is the whopper of a failure, 'Children of Men'.

Cheap Chinese players...?Give me a break! Only in a Bizzaro world where the Blu Ray eclusive studios supported only HD DVD (and vice versa) would bail out HD DVD.

Personally, I don't think the likes fo Shinco or Lite-On and other '3rd world' brands are going to appeal to any consumer - even at a big discount. The electronics names that consumers have all known for decades and scene at Sears, BB, etc (Pioneer, Panasonic, Sony, Philips, Samsung, etc) are all over Blu Ray yet won't touch HD DVD with a hardware product.

OOhh..Casino Royale and Borat!

I'm sure the 40 or 50 million people in this coubtry that own these china manufactured players probably don't agree with you. But, that doesn't really matter does it!

How about the millions of PS3's that are now being built in China? Are they all crap now? The new model Sony and Samsung?

This is the weakest arguement that has ever come up about the format war. Most of these players are going to be rebadged and you damn well know it. Just like they are for dvd, tv's, sterios, you name it.

As long as Sony's name is on it, little does it matter.

A shinco Denon HD DVD player?

I can't wait!

stormprophet,

Toshiba doesn't produce an economically viable machine now. They subsidize their players very heavily. Their policy is low price on the machine to sell discs.

Well, supposedly they make money on the new models, but they did subsidize the first ones, but who knows. However, the price is still $499.
That was exactly my point. No big name manufacturer, at this point in time, can make a machine for $299 and make a profit. Hence, we dont see machines for that price, but that is the price when they will start to sell. Heck, even Sony believes that, according to the VP that was misquoted about Sony dropping their price.

However, the Chinese could probably do it. Then, the players would sell. This nonsense about no content, is just that. If you just bought a player, there would be plenty of movies to buy. Besides, Universal is going to be releasing movies.

The Bland,

You can have Casino Royale, just give me Casino, sans Royale.

I don't know. Maybe, but that means that BD has 67% of the market. That's a strong lead, but I don't know if that alone would sink HD DVD. I'm sure Mac's don't make up 67% of the market yet they survive, for example.
Yes, but Macs do somethings significantly better than PCs. They also are different enough to stick around, and always have been. I don't think either Blu Ray or HD DVD have enough endure longevity as the lesser format like the Mac has. Remember when Microsoft bailed them out years ago. I remember reading the transcript of Steve Jobs' phone call to Bill Gates thanking him for the MS investment into Apple. I don't see either side in this battle doing that.

Yes, but Macs do somethings significantly better than PCs. They also are different enough to stick around, and always have been. I don't think either Blu Ray or HD DVD have enough endure longevity as the lesser format like the Mac has. Remember when Microsoft bailed them out years ago. I remember reading the transcript of Steve Jobs' phone call to Bill Gates thanking him for the MS investment into Apple. I don't see either side in this battle doing that.

Microsoft keeps the Mac alive as competition so they can use it in their multiple court cases as proof there is "some" compettiion in the desktop....

Personally, I don't think the likes fo Shinco or Lite-On and other '3rd world' brands are going to appeal to any consumer - even at a big discount.

You must not have been paying attention then since Lenovo (a Chinese company) actually has done significantly better than IBM while at the helm after it bought the laptop division of IBM. Remember too that Hyundai and even Toyota used to be brands that were held in contempt. Things change.

That said, if HD-DVD can move a player price down, then so too can blu-ray - it's a losing proposition since there is a point at which NONE of the manufacturers make any money ...the one thing hd-dvd can't do is actually provide content for all those empty boxes.

...Content! HD DVD has no movies for almost the entire month of March...and then the only exclusive biggie is the whopper of a failure, 'Children of Men'...

That "whopper of a failure" was one of the best reviewed movies last year. Lots of movies that underperform at the box-office have huge after-lives on home video. I suspect a film like CHILDREN OF MEN will have a much longer shelf-life than many of the disposable, run-of-the-mill "blockbuster" releases. The "blockbusters" tend to make a lot of money out of the gate then fade quickly, whereas the well-reviewed, innovative movies live on.

Vincent

6 months ago means absolutely nothing. Why do you think Fox waited months before releasing anything? You think they were'nt aware of HD DVD's lead? The gameplan was the same: "let the PS3 loose and everyone start releasing titles and the format war is pretty much decided." I pity those who didn't see this coming.

You "pity those who didn't see this coming"? Please just stop it with the marketing BS. You've been a member here since June 2006, yet you deign to explain the 'situation' for all of those HDDVD'ers that you pity so much?

Whatever.

And yes, six months ago it didn't matter what the sales ratio was just like it doesn't matter right NOW either. There are too many hands left to be played on both sides of the fence for anyone to pronounce that Bluray wins.



I've been waiting for someone to tell me this. I have invested in both formats, but how does HD DVD expect to win? Cheap Chinese players? Who's to say Blu-ray won't do that as well?


I didn't say that Bluray won't produce cheap Chinese players. If they do, then I agree that HDDVD will have a very tough road to hoe. Just remember: it's a race to the bottom, and player price DOES MATTER. Content at this point and a year going forward will be a wash if the studios maintain their release schedules. There simply won't be enough differentiation there to make a difference IMO.


People here keep talking about J6P. J6p is too busy looking at the $10 DVD bin to care.

J6P is looking at the $10 DVD bin because he can't afford a HD player. Lower the price on players and see how many of those J6P's start looking at HDDVD or Bluray. HD media prices are within grasp of most J6P's, player prices are not.


Just to be crystalline clear, my positions are as follows:

Player price matters to a significant degree. Without affordable players, (neither side offers that right now) no one will win this format race. Without mainstream pricing, both sides are bobbing for apples in a goldfish bowl.

Content can only be used to meaningful advantage if player prices are affordable. Sure, Bluray may win the niche HD market with content advantage, but without mainstream pricing it's irrelevant to market at large. I can assure you that the studios and CE's on both sides are not going after the boutique market. Widescale adoption of this format is their aim.

Toshiba doesn't produce an economically viable machine now. They subsidize their players very heavily. Their policy is low price on the machine to sell discs.

The problem is even if the HD-DVD players were cheaper they don't have the content to drive the sales they need. That's why Blu-ray has been able to sell as many stand alone players as HD-DVD has though at higher prices. Content. That's why price is much more important for blu-ray on players than it is for HD-DVD. Low priced blu-ray players would end this war pretty effectively.




"Toshiba doesn't produce an economically viable machine now. They subsidize their players very heavily."

That's why Bluray has been able to sell as many standalone players as HDDVD has though at higher prices

What? WTH are you talking about? Bluray standalones have not outsold or even kept pace with HDDVD standalones. The Bluray format is viable right now because of the PS3. As well, please provide evidence that Toshiba "doesn't produce an economically viable machine now".

I agree that low-priced Bluray players could end this war, but you have some 'splainin' to do with your other statements.

Price matters. The law of demand and supply have price on one axis and quantity on the other for a reason. At a lower price more will be demanded. How much price effects demand is based upon the slope of the demand curve.

I've had discussions with folks who work at HP and even they do not expect the format war to end soon. Cost is big part of that. They are looking 12 to 18 months out....the format battle for suppliers is about making money and unless someone can point me to a source that says someone has made money from BD (or HD DVD) (other than parts manufacturers) it's premature to start thinking about an end game.

The major airlines thought they would drive Southwest out of business by under cutting them and taking losses on routes flown by Southwest. In the end, it led to the bankruptcy of the majors and not Southwest. Efficiency and lower cost of production matters, although in the short term it can be hidden from view through marketing and accumulating deficits..

Microsoft keeps the Mac alive as competition so they can use it in their multiple court cases as proof there is "some" compettiion in the desktop....

What are you talking about?

If you're referring to the Apple shares that Microsoft bought in 1997, they sold them back after a few years. You can easily look it up on the Apple k-10 filings around 2003, this is well documented. As of now, Microsoft doesn't own any AAPL shares to a degree
that requires a disclosure of ownership.

It's in the best interests of Microsoft to port Office for the Mac because their Mac BU is very profitable, although they don't like to claim it out loud. If they didn't, Apple would immediately develop their own office suite.

For the period between 03-01 to 03-04 the HD DVD stock went from 1347 to 1357! There is nothing to indicate that replishment took place since there isn't a spike of any kind. Are you saying that during these three days, Amazon sold no copies of The Departed.
I can't explain Amazon's stocking or re-stocking procedures or how they enter the quantity on hand or how it's transmitted to eproduct, but it is pretty easy to read those graphs.
It's also entirely possible that they only sold a copy or two in a three day period.

I don't think it's easy to read those charts at all. If you click on them, it gives the sales ranks, not the quantity on hand. According to the charts, the HD DVD version of The Departed has a sales rank of -70. How you get a negative sales rank on Amazon is beyond me. Either something's badly mislabeled or eproductwars has screwed up the implementation of the quantities on hand.

I can't explain Amazon's stocking or re-stocking procedures or how they enter the quantity on hand or how it's transmitted to eproduct, but it is pretty easy to read those graphs.
It's also entirely possible that they only sold a copy or two in a three day period.

Really! This was the number #1 selling HD DVD title on Amazon.

Well, here are some hard numbers folks.

Hollywood Reporter has the sales figures for week one of The Departed.

Week One

Blu-Ray sold 23,000 copies
HD-DVD sold 15,000 copies

Yep, HD DVD is getting killed - 8,000 disc difference in the week. I guess all those HD DVD supporters should just call it a day and give up ;) Over a million BD players out there, and wow, 8K disc difference. HD DVD should be afraid, be very afraid.

Well, here are some hard numbers folks.

Hollywood Reporter has the sales figures for week one of The Departed.

Week One

Blu-Ray sold 23,000 copies
HD-DVD sold 15,000 copies

Yep, HD DVD is getting killed - 8,000 disc difference in the week. I guess all those HD DVD supporters should just call it a day and give up ;) Over a million BD players out there, and wow, 8K disc difference. HD DVD should be afraid, be very afraid.
That is such a dumb argument. Most people buy the PS3 to play game, as it IS a gaming console after all. Blu-ray player capability is just an added bonus that comes with the high price-tag.

It's like saying there are 10million potential HD-DVD owners (10+mil Xbox360 sold and how many of those bought an HD-DVD addon? Less than 10% I'm sure. Does that show that people don't want HD-DVD at all?) and only 15k copies were sold in that week.

Itainrite,

you are new. You should read the posts. Quite a few people argue that the sales increase in BD discs, and BDs current 3:1 sales advantage is due almost solely to the PS3. Quite a few people here argue and claim that they bought the PS3 as a dedicated BD player, FA is a good example.

They argue that game players also buy movies and that this will propel BD to dominance.

Itainrite,

you are new. You should read the posts. Quite a few people argue that the sales increase in BD discs, and BDs current 3:1 sales advantage is due almost solely to the PS3. Quite a few people here argue and claim that they bought the PS3 as a dedicated BD player.

They argue that game players also buy movies and that this will propel BD to dominance.


That is another broken argument. You are creating a false dichotomy in quest of some crazy house of cards argument that HD-DVD being outsold 3:1 and all signs pointing of a future widening gap in favor of Blu Ray is in some twisted way a sign that Blu Ray is in trouble.

I know this may be very confusing. But here are some simple facts.

SOME purchasers of PS3 will use it to play movies.
The exact number is uknown.
Enough purchaser of PS3 use it to play movies to outsell HD-DVD significantly.

No where do you find any Blu Ray proponent or even neutral party claim that every PS3 owner will use it to watch movies. That straw man only exists in the desperate minds of HD-DVD zealots.

If I am a studio/consumer and the first place HD-DVD title is being handily outsold by the tenth place Blu Ray title then I know where I would be placing my bet.

I own neither, but I think the writing on the wall is crystal clear. If one of these formats win, it will be Blu Ray. Digest that as you will. I will either buy Blu Ray or none. I won't buy HD-DVD.

guidryp,

No where do you find any Blu Ray proponent or even neutral party claim that every PS3 owner will use it to watch movies

Do a search on FA's posts. I cant find it off hand. He states that every PS3 is to be counted as a BD player. During the fall Xbdestroya claimed that every, or nearly every, PS3 would buy at least 1 BD movie just to try it out. People like beatboy and eight tell people to buy the PS3 as a dedicated player because it is the best one out there.

here is a quote from FA

There's nothing erroneous about it. The PS3 plays BD discs.

Seeing what I want to see? The reputable data says there are more Blu-ray players in homes, and BD discs outsell HD-DVD discs. There's nothing else to see.

So, your statement is simply wrong. Now, you may not think that the PS3 is a BD player, and I certainly dont, but there are plenty of BD supporters who do.

I own neither, but I think the writing on the wall is crystal clear. If one of these formats win, it will be Blu Ray. Digest that as you will. I will either buy Blu Ray or none. I won't buy HD-DVD.

I dont own either either. But see, I dont think the writing is on the wall. Neither does Paramount, if you believe what the exec said in a different thread. It is way to early to call this, and the numbers for the Departed support that.

Blu Ray is in trouble.

I never said BD was in trouble. What I said is that BD isnt stomping, destroying, you choose your adjective, HD.

Well, here are some hard numbers folks.

Hollywood Reporter has the sales figures for week one of The Departed.

Week One

Blu-Ray sold 23,000 copies
HD-DVD sold 15,000 copies

<snip>

I can't believe those numbers... I'm an HD DVD advocate, but I thought it would be realistic to expect 3:1 sales if the HD DVD did pretty well. Double sales would have been pretty bad for BD. Less than double... man if those numbers are real.

1) Best Buy was selling The Departed HD DVD for dirt cheap on the release day.

2) It was really the only thing out on HD DVD that week, vs. 12 or so new titles on BD.

Frankly I was sorta expecting to see HD DVD to come out ahead on that title.

I can't believe those numbers... I'm an HD DVD advocate, but I thought it would be realistic to expect 3:1 sales if the HD DVD did pretty well. Double sales would have been pretty bad for BD. Less than double... man if those numbers are real.Let see...this was the only HD DVD from a major studio released that week, it was a combo "future-proof" title, it was an Oscar nominee, and the existing sales figures and numbers like this are already making neutral studios iffy on HD DVD. Yeah, your concerns for HD DVD, sarcastic as they may be, are valid. I'm willing to bet your next argument is that 1 million players should mean this is just horrible for Blu-ray. Apparently the studios don't agree with you, but if it helps you sleep at night, go ahead and tell yourself how bad it looks.

Either something's badly mislabeled...It is a labelling issue where they are using one graph to put 2 things. Look at the top to see which graph is the one with in stock quantities.

--Darin

Well, here are some hard numbers folks.

Hollywood Reporter has the sales figures for week one of The Departed.

Week One

Blu-Ray sold 23,000 copies
HD-DVD sold 15,000 copies

Yep, HD DVD is getting killed - 8,000 disc difference in the week. I guess all those HD DVD supporters should just call it a day and give up ;) Over a million BD players out there, and wow, 8K disc difference. HD DVD should be afraid, be very afraid.


if that's all the next gen format sold, we should all be very afraid. you know what would make the "which will survive, bd or hddvd" argument a moot point? if BOTH formats fail... :(

I can't believe those numbers... I'm an HD DVD advocate, but I thought it would be realistic to expect 3:1 sales if the HD DVD did pretty well. Double sales would have been pretty bad for BD. Less than double... man if those numbers are real.That isn't logical. The people really paying attention know that PS3 were never going to to have the same attach rate as regular standalones and never will, so they should do something like count PS3s as less than a standalone (one consultant uses 22% of them as the figure they account for). Why would you think that double the sales for BD would be bad for BD (which one could take it to mean that you think that if HD DVD can sell half as many discs of a title as BD, that is somehow good news for them).

--Darin

Let see...this was the only HD DVD from a major studio released that week, it was a combo "future-proof" title, it was an Oscar nominee, and the existing sales figures and numbers like this are already making neutral studios iffy on HD DVD. Yeah, your concerns for HD DVD, sarcastic as they may be, are valid. I'm willing to bet your next argument is that 1 million players should mean this is just horrible for Blu-ray. Apparently the studios don't agree with you, but if it helps you sleep at night, go ahead and tell yourself how bad it looks.

Do you see 23,000 disks as good news with 1.4 million players out there? HD DVD has maybe 300,000 players and sold 15,000. Perhaps you should rethink your post a bit.

Do you see 23,000 disks as good news with 1.4 million players out there? HD DVD has maybe 300,000 players and sold 15,000. Perhaps you should rethink your post a bit.

Yes it is! Let's not forget that a few weeks ago, the highest selling new release disc of 2007 was Crank at 7700. So for Departed on Blu-ray, 23000 is quite good.

Well, here are some hard numbers folks.

Hollywood Reporter has the sales figures for week one of The Departed.

Week One

Blu-Ray sold 23,000 copies
HD-DVD sold 15,000 copies


That's pretty good for BD since The Departed HD-DVD was beating the Blu-ray version at amazon.com that first week. To have actually sold 50% more when i thought it was being beat is darn good :p

of course, since then, the Blu-ray version has been significantly higher in ranking then the HD-DVd number at amazon.com, so the final tally will be much higher for Blu-ray. :cool:

of course, since then, the Blu-ray version has been significantly higher in ranking then the HD-DVd number at amazon.com, so the final tally will be much higher for Blu-ray. :cool:You can't (or shouldn't) just extrapolate Amazon rankings to the whole market like that.

I asked this elsewhere, but does anybody know how long it took for the first laserdisc to sell 100,000 copies?

I've been thinking that 100k might be just too much to expect for "Casino Royale" to sell in its first 2-3 months, but with these numbers I'm thinking that it has a chance. "The Departed" being on 2 formats could end up selling more though.

--Darin

darin,

I certainly dont think the PS3 should have the same attach rate as a standalone. However, if your 22% figure is right, then that is what 250K PS3s that should be counted as BD players plus, what another 150K standalones. So, 400K BD players, and they sold 23K in one week. That is roughly 7% for an Oscar nominated film. That isnt very good. Admittedly the HD numbers arent that good either. In reality, I see it as a sign of the general weakness of the market in general.

darin,

I certainly dont think the PS3 should have the same attach rate as a standalone. However, if your 22% figure is right, then that is what 250K PS3s that should be counted as BD players plus, what another 150K standalones.I doubt there are even close to that many Blu-ray standalones. Do you have some data that shows otherwise?
So, 400K BD players, and they sold 23K in one week. That is roughly 7% for an Oscar nominated film. That isnt very good.Is this data for a full week (Tuesday to Tuesday)? What do some of the DVDs do for percentages based on their first week? I believe there are something like 100 million DVD players out there, but many households have multiples and so that complicates things.

I'll be interested to see what "Casino Royale" does if we can get those numbers. It was the #9 movie at the box office in the US last year, but seems like something many people would buy. "The Departed" was #15 for last year.

From some numbers we got earlier, it looks like "Batman Begins" was selling about 1400 per week through the first 3 weeks of the year. Of course, it is different after a title has been out a while.

--Darin

Yes it is! Let's not forget that a few weeks ago, the highest selling new release disc of 2007 was Crank at 7700. So for Departed on Blu-ray, 23000 is quite good.

Yeah, I'm already wondering what Casino Royale Blu-ray is going to be doing as it has been consistently in the Top 20 of amazon. com rankings the past few days even before release, and is actually beating the Fullscreen version of the movie on SD DVD :)

Darin,

I read in a thread that BD and HD standalones were roughly equal. The poster could have been wrong.

I read in a thread that BD and HD standalones were roughly equal. The poster could have been wrong.I've seen that, but I have my doubts (might have been $ and not units). Also, I believe that over half of HD DVD player sales are the XBOX360 add-on (connected to XBOX360s to make a whole player). The head of Toshiba of America said they had sold about 60k standalones by the end of 2006, but at least one person has said that his claims weren't accurate, or meant to be taken literally, or something like that.

--Darin

I've seen that, but I have my doubts (might have been $ and not units).
--Darin

It's unit sales, with 52% Hd-DVD and 48% standalone Blu-ray players:
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6413168.html

I never said BD was in trouble. What I said is that BD isnt stomping, destroying, you choose your adjective, HD.

BD is stomping on HD-DVD :D

* 2:1 current sales ratio of titles

* TWELVE blu-ray titles in the top 100 of amazon.com, ZERO hd-dvd titles in the top 100...and this was TWENTY blu-ray titles: ZERO hd-dvd titles yesterday

* Just to keep it on topic,
Current amazon.com ranking of the Departed:
Departed (Blu-ray) #50
Departed (HD-DVD): #189

looks like STOMPING to me ;)

Yeah, I'm already wondering what Casino Royale Blu-ray is going to be doing as it has been consistently in the Top 20 of amazon. com rankings the past few days even before release, and is actually beating the Fullscreen version of the movie on SD DVD :)

I'm also curious to see what the final sales numbers of Casino Royale will be compared to the Blu-ray release of the Departed, from a demographic perspective. Although the theatrical release of both movies were fairly close (Casino Royale - $167 million/ The Departed - $132 million), I would guess that there's a big difference in the composition of their core fan bases. Since the PS3 represents such a large percentage of the potential BD playback-capable gear, which film is most likely to appeal to this demographic? My guess is that there are going to be many PS3 owners who aren't interested in The Departed who WILL be interested in Casino Royale. Just from a genre perspective, I would think that an action/adventure film like Casino Royale is a bigger draw than a crime/thriller film like The Departed which got a big boost from all the Academy Award hype later in its run. Based on International box office, I have no doubt that the Casino Royale will outsell The Departed ($593 million vs. $283 million) when the BD comes out overseas.

Well they giving 500 000 copies away to europe if they buy PS3 so they cant sell that much of Casino Royal overseas.

Well they giving 500 000 copies away to europe if they buy PS3 so they cant sell that much of Casino Royal overseas.

In Europe that's true, but PS3 owners in Asia who are interested will have to buy their own copy when it's finally released. I can't wait, so we're getting our copy from the States next Tuesday.

1) Best Buy was selling The Departed HD DVD for dirt cheap on the release day.

2) It was really the only thing out on HD DVD that week, vs. 12 or so new titles on BD.

Frankly I was sorta expecting to see HD DVD to come out ahead on that title.

Good points. The majority of the departed sales were likely from BB and other Brick stores, and the HD-DVD was on sale at those places, the only place I saw it for cheaper was on Amazon and Amazon didn't make up the vast majority of sales at all.

Well I must admit that I'm indeed really impressed that HD DVD sells 65 copies for every 100 copies that BD sells in a head-to-head comparison of a must-have movie.

I think the real importance of the reported sales numbers is that there were so few of either format sold. This is a really, really , really small market and one that is not doing well for either format ( I have HD BTW). For a major title like this, the numbers are awful and show just how far both formats need to go to be viable in the long term. I can't imagine that anyone can be happy with these numbers.

The Amazon stock numbers for The Departed on eproductwars are a little strange.

On March 8th, they had 1,388 HD DVD copies in stock and got 650 more. They now have 1,953 HD DVD copies in stock.

At the same time they had 195 BD copies and only got 80 more. And they are now sold out. :confused:

I take it someone at Amazon or Warner screwed up the shipment order.

I don't think it's easy to read those charts at all. If you click on them, it gives the sales ranks, not the quantity on hand. According to the charts, the HD DVD version of The Departed has a sales rank of -70. How you get a negative sales rank on Amazon is beyond me. Either something's badly mislabeled or eproductwars has screwed up the implementation of the quantities on hand.
NO you're wrong, as previously explained the "sales rank" is a typo.
The heading actually says "quantity on hand"
You'll note that the upper line and the lower line both leave the "sales rank" name on there, despite the fact that the upper one is quantity on hand and the lower one is sales rank.

Currently there are 1,953 copies on hand and the sales rank is 260. The minus means below zero is how I read that. I don't think it's that hard at all to realise that the sales rank is going backwards from 1 being the highest.

Quantity on hand
http://img95.imageshack.us/img95/4146/departedhddvdquantityge5.jpg

Sales rank
http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/605/departedhddvdrankmt7.jpg

You can see that they both say "sales rank" to the bottom left, but it's pretty obvious it's a typo
I can't explain Amazon's stocking or re-stocking procedures or how they enter the quantity on hand or how it's transmitted to eproduct, but it is pretty easy to read those graphs.
It's also entirely possible that they only sold a copy or two in a three day period.
Really! This was the number #1 selling HD DVD title on Amazon.
...and in my head as I read this post I suddenly have Metallica's "Sad but True" playing. :)
Well they giving 500 000 copies away to europe if they buy PS3 so they cant sell that much of Casino Royal overseas.
Yet, oddly enough, Casino Royale on Blu-ray at Amazon.co.uk is ranked #16 currently.

Funny to see that The Departed is way overstocked for HD-DVD and way understocked for Blu-Ray. Hopefully Blu-Ray will get a restock so that the demand will be met.

This stat pretty much shows how "shallow" the population base of HD-DVD is....the Departed HD-DVD was higher in ranking than the Blu-ray version for a couple days at the beginning (but was still outsold 23k to 13k in the first week), but it has been dropping precipitously in ranks since then:

Amazon.com rankings:

The Departed (Blu-ray): #57
The Departed (HD-DVD): #244

I think you have to consider that the Amazon sale on BD's might be dragging along some of the non-sale titles. When I ordered my 4 sale titles, I nearly took the Prestige and considered adding Casino Royale. I had no intention of ordering those via Amazon except I was already ordering something else. Once the sale is over, give it a week for things to settle back to normal and then check the rankings. That might start to give a better impression of the demand for both formats.

The reason I suggest giving it a week after the sale before doing comparisons is that the people stocking up during the sale will be less likely to order something during the following week. After all they will have a bunch of new titles to watch.

I think you have to consider that the Amazon sale on BD's might be dragging along some of the non-sale titles. When I ordered my 4 sale titles, I nearly took the Prestige and considered adding Casino Royale. I had no intention of ordering those via Amazon except I was already ordering something else. Once the sale is over, give it a week for things to settle back to normal and then check the rankings. That might start to give a better impression of the demand for both formats.

The reason I suggest giving it a week after the sale before doing comparisons is that the people stocking up during the sale will be less likely to order something during the following week. After all they will have a bunch of new titles to watch.


SSShhhh! You're making too much sense for this place. I would wait until May for the real indicator. The PS3 should have a bunch more sales(maybe) and then it will be interesting to see if the HD-DVD camp can keep up the sales with the 360 add-on and the the cheap stand alone players.

I think you have to consider that the Amazon sale on BD's might be dragging along some of the non-sale titles. When I ordered my 4 sale titles, I nearly took the Prestige and considered adding Casino Royale. I had no intention of ordering those via Amazon except I was already ordering something else. Once the sale is over, give it a week for things to settle back to normal and then check the rankings. That might start to give a better impression of the demand for both formats.

The reason I suggest giving it a week after the sale before doing comparisons is that the people stocking up during the sale will be less likely to order something during the following week. After all they will have a bunch of new titles to watch.

That's a good point and logically feasable.

ugh... I did come across sounding like Spock, didn't I?!

I expect one of two scenarios: 1) Things will go back to 2:1 as they were before the sale started, and start increasing from there again as more high profile titles hit Blu-ray or 2) Things will go back to almost equal or even HD DVD outselling Blu-ray for a couple of weeks because people have spent their allowance on the sale. :)

I think you have to consider that the Amazon sale on BD's might be dragging along some of the non-sale titles. When I ordered my 4 sale titles, I nearly took the Prestige and considered adding Casino Royale. I had no intention of ordering those via Amazon except I was already ordering something else. Once the sale is over, give it a week for things to settle back to normal and then check the rankings. That might start to give a better impression of the demand for both formats.

The reason I suggest giving it a week after the sale before doing comparisons is that the people stocking up during the sale will be less likely to order something during the following week. After all they will have a bunch of new titles to watch.

agree on the gravitrational effect. Though I think the important aspect is that because people have the players they can go out and buy.

I think you have to consider that the Amazon sale on BD's might be dragging along some of the non-sale titles. When I ordered my 4 sale titles, I nearly took the Prestige and considered adding Casino Royale. I had no intention of ordering those via Amazon except I was already ordering something else. Once the sale is over, give it a week for things to settle back to normal and then check the rankings. That might start to give a better impression of the demand for both formats.

The reason I suggest giving it a week after the sale before doing comparisons is that the people stocking up during the sale will be less likely to order something during the following week. After all they will have a bunch of new titles to watch.

I added prestige, casino royale, and crank because of convenience.

I have a question is the sales rank based upon the stock level.

Because HD DVD seems to sell more copys in the same time frame.




Blu Ray

@ 395 copies March 4 2007 / @0 copies March 10 2007
http://www.eproductwars.com/asinsaleshistory.cfm?db=dvd&asin=B000M5AJQI


HD DVD

@1433 copies March 5 2007/ @1991 copies March 10 2007
But March 9 2007 2015 copies to 988 copies
http://www.eproductwars.com/asinsaleshistory.cfm?db=dvd&asin=B000M5AJQ8


Thats like 1,100 coipes in the same time frame. Can someone please explain this.

I have a question is the sales rank based upon the stock level.I believe that it is only based on orders and is unrelated to stock levels. Other than that people might not order things that aren't in stock and the rare case like "Superman Returns" on Blu-ray where Amazon wouldn't allow people to order it unless it was in stock.

--Darin

As long as Sony\'s name is on it, little does it matter.

A shinco Denon HD DVD player?

I can\'t wait!
if you can wait for blur rays promises you can wait for hd-dvd\'s...

As of 8 am EDT (USA):

The Departed (Blu-ray) #59
The Departed (HD-DVD): # 506

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/versus.aspx

This means:

1. The HD-DVD population base is much shallower than the Blu-ray one.

2. attachment rates mean squat when your competitor has so much more potential customers.

wow departed dropped quite hard... hmm

yup you are right about attachment rate....

Marek

Again, this shows how deep the population base of Blu-ray is compared to HD-DVD, where the initial surge in HD-DVD at the very beginning melted even though there were fewer new releases on the HD-DVD side than the Blu-ray side (where consumers had more choices of new releases and could have abandoned The Departed).

The Departed (Blu-ray) #144
The Departed (HD-DVD) #810

Again, this shows how deep the population base of Blu-ray is compared to HD-DVD, where the initial surge in HD-DVD at the very beginning melted even though there were fewer new releases on the HD-DVD side than the Blu-ray side (where consumers had more choices of new releases and could have abandoned The Departed).

The Departed (Blu-ray) #144
The Departed (HD-DVD) #810
If both titles were equal in features and price, then you would have a point. Both formats are similar in features, but the fact that The Departed on HD DVD retails for $5 more counters your contention. What you are seeing here is the following: Both format neutral and Blu-ray only consumers are by and large purchasing The Departed on Blu-ray and are saving money. HD DVD only consumers are purchasing the film on HD DVD.

If you want to consider a "population base" for any format, take a look at what is happening with Happy Feet. Right now the HD DVD is ranked at 58, and Blu-ray is ranked at 90. Although the HD DVD version retails for $5 more than the Blu-ray version, the HD DVD contains a superior soundtrack. Therefore, format neutral and HD DVD only consumers are largely purchasing Happy Feet on HD DVD because of TrueHD. Blu-ray only consumers are forced to purchase the Blu-ray version. So as far as a "population base" goes, one could therefore argue for just how "deep" it is for HD DVD, even though there are now more HD DVD titles available for purchase and pre-order.

Happy Feet (Blu-ray) #90
Happy Feet (HD DVD) #58

So, what we have here are three groups: the HD DVD only purchase base (HD), the Blu-ray only purchase base (BD), and the format neutral purchase base. And what we may be seeing is possibly an equal HD-only and BD-only purchase base, but the format neutrals can often swing the tide one way or the other. According to a number of polls on this forum the majority who own both formats have consistently stated that all things being equal in terms of features and price they will often prefer the HD DVD version over the Blu-ray version.

By the way, here is how Nine Inch Nails is performing on both formats:

Nine Inch Nails Live - Beside You In Time (Blu-ray) #1780
Nine Inch Nails Live - Beside You In Time (HD DVD) #687

If both titles were equal in features and price, then you would have a point. Both formats are similar in features, but the fact that The Departed on HD DVD retails for $5 more counters your contention. What you are seeing here is the following: Both format neutral and Blu-ray only consumers are by and large purchasing The Departed on Blu-ray and are saving money. HD DVD only consumers are purchasing the film on HD DVD.

If you want to consider a "population base" for any format, take a look at what is happening with Happy Feet. Right now the HD DVD is ranked at 58, and Blu-ray is ranked at 90. Although the HD DVD version retails for $5 more than the Blu-ray version, the HD DVD contains a superior soundtrack. Therefore, format neutral and HD DVD only consumers are largely purchasing Happy Feet on HD DVD because of TrueHD. Blu-ray only consumers are forced to purchase the Blu-ray version. So as far as a "population base" goes, one could therefore argue for just how "deep" it is for HD DVD, even though there are now more HD DVD titles available for purchase and pre-order.

Happy Feet (Blu-ray) #90
Happy Feet (HD DVD) #58

\[/B]


Want to make a bet on which version has a higher ranking next week? It's the same old story that we've seen before. HD DVD does really well initially and then the Blu-ray version catches up then stays there longer while the HD DVD version dips.

Want to make a bet on which version has a higher ranking next week? It's the same old story that we've seen before. HD DVD does really well initially and then the Blu-ray version catches up then stays there longer while the HD DVD version dips.
It will be HD DVD I am sure.

So as far as a "population base" goes, one could therefore argue for just how "deep" it is for HD DVD, even though there are now more HD DVD titles available for purchase and pre-order.

Happy Feet (Blu-ray) #90
Happy Feet (HD DVD) #58Amazon is just a portion of the market, although it is good for trying to track things when we keep the limitations in mind. Which version do you think will have sold more in their first week or so by Nielsen or overall numbers, if we get those? As I see it the HD DVD has 2 advantages. The TrueHD track and the combo disc. Normally I think the combo could be a disadvantage overall because of the higher price (although they do get the extra DVD side), but for a kids movie like "Happy Feet" it seems to me that the DVD side could help sell more copies than if it wasn't a combo.

--Darin

Amazon is just a portion of the market, although it is good for trying to track things when we keep the limitations in mind. Which version do you think will have sold more in their first week or so by Nielsen or overall numbers, if we get those? As I see it the HD DVD has 2 advantages. The TrueHD track and the combo disc. Normally I think the combo could be a disadvantage overall because of the higher price (although they do get the extra DVD side), but for a kids movie like "Happy Feet" it seems to me that the DVD side could help sell more copies than if it wasn't a combo.
TrueHD for sure. Being a combo might help a bit, though I'm not sure just how much.

If both titles were equal in features and price, then you would have a point. Both formats are similar in features, but the fact that The Departed on HD DVD retails for $5 more counters your contention. What you are seeing here is the following: Both format neutral and Blu-ray only consumers are by and large purchasing The Departed on Blu-ray and are saving money. HD DVD only consumers are purchasing the film on HD DVD.

If you want to consider a "population base" for any format, take a look at what is happening with Happy Feet. Right now the HD DVD is ranked at 58, and Blu-ray is ranked at 90. Although the HD DVD version retails for $5 more than the Blu-ray version, the HD DVD contains a superior soundtrack. Therefore, format neutral and HD DVD only consumers are largely purchasing Happy Feet on HD DVD because of TrueHD. Blu-ray only consumers are forced to purchase the Blu-ray version. So as far as a "population base" goes, one could therefore argue for just how "deep" it is for HD DVD, even though there are now more HD DVD titles available for purchase and pre-order.

Happy Feet (Blu-ray) #90
Happy Feet (HD DVD) #58

So, what we have here are three groups: the HD DVD only purchase base (HD), the Blu-ray only purchase base (BD), and the format neutral purchase base. And what we may be seeing is possibly an equal HD-only and BD-only purchase base, but the format neutrals can often swing the tide one way or the other. According to a number of polls on this forum the majority who own both formats have consistently stated that all things being equal in terms of features and price they will often prefer the HD DVD version over the Blu-ray version.

By the way, here is how Nine Inch Nails is performing on both formats:

Nine Inch Nails Live - Beside You In Time (Blu-ray) #1780
Nine Inch Nails Live - Beside You In Time (HD DVD) #687

Since the BD version of Happy Feet is missing the TrueHD track, it is probable that owners of both formats are buying the HD version.

The NIN comparison is interesting though, since the BD has the higher bitrate. There could be many other factors as well though, you can't guage format popularity based on the sale of one title.

The NIN comparison is interesting though, since the BD has the higher bitrate. There could be many other factors as well though, you can't guage format popularity based on the sale of one title.I've heard that the NIN HD DVD isn't carried in Best Buy stores, but the Blu-ray is. I haven't checked that (other than being the case at one store), but things like that could affect Amazon sales. It would be nice to hear how it sold overall on each format. I figure that disc could have sold some XBOX360 add-ons and players to a big NIN fans.

--Darin

Since the BD version of Happy Feet is missing the TrueHD track, it is probable that owners of both formats are buying the HD version.

Uh, wasn't that exactly his point?

Uh, wasn't that exactly his point?

For happy feet, i'd wait and see the long term trends...the departed (HD-DVD) also had a slightly higher ranking in the earlier short run than the Blu-ray version, but could not sustain sales and has been outsold by a large rank since then...it's possibler this is the same thing happening here....

It's also telling that the Departed HD-DVD version outranked the departed (blu-ray) in amazon.com for a short while, but actual first week's sales of The Departed was firmly won by Blu-ray (20,000+ copies versus 13,000 copies)...whent he rankings are close togethey, especially for lower rankings (say, below #20 or #30), they mau not indicate larger sales trends.

I've heard that the NIN HD DVD isn't carried in Best Buy stores, but the Blu-ray is. I haven't checked that (other than being the case at one store), but things like that could affect Amazon sales. It would be nice to hear how it sold overall on each format. I figure that disc could have sold some XBOX360 add-ons and players to a big NIN fans.

--Darin

I've seen NIN on HD DVD and Blu-Ray @ Best Buy

How in the world did this thread prolong for 5 pages where the majority postings don't even discuss the main issue? Sheesh.

How in the world did this thread prolong for 5 pages where the majority postings don't even discuss the main issue? Sheesh. Welcome to the HD format war discussions here at AVS. :eek:

I've read stranger threads :)

At least the threads here don't generally devolve into Godwin's Law. :)

At least the threads here don't generally devolve into Godwin's Law. :)

Who made you the thread nazi? :eek:


(sorry, couldn't resist after looking up what Godwin's law is :) :) :)

The format war goes on and on and on. Having learned something from having been one of the early adopters who (foolishly) bought an expensive Sony Betamax VCR in the ‘70s, I have stayed on the HD disk sidelines so far. I would love for either BD or HD DVD to take a clear lead but, as the ambiguous figures discussed in this thread have shown, that’s not happening. Alas, I can’t even blame it on Adolph Hitler. :)

For happy feet, i'd wait and see the long term trends...the departed (HD-DVD) also had a slightly higher ranking in the earlier short run than the Blu-ray version, but could not sustain sales and has been outsold by a large rank since then...it's possibler this is the same thing happening here....I was looking through the rankings on hdgamedb.com and was surprised to see what has happened with the ranking of "The Departed" on HD DVD. I don't expect it to stay this low on HD DVD (especially if some try to change it after I point it out :)), but here is where "The Departed" ranks at last check:

HD DVD: 4080
Blu-ray: 704

That is about 2 and a half months since it came out.

Happy Feet is:

HD DVD: 1708
Blu-ray: 774

That is 2 months and a day since it came out.

--Darin

I was looking through the rankings on hdgamedb.com and was surprised to see what has happened with the ranking of "The Departed" on HD DVD. I don't expect it to stay this low on HD DVD (especially if some try to change it after I point it out :)), but here is where "The Departed" ranks at last check:

HD DVD: 4080
Blu-ray: 704

--Darin

Visual interpretation.

http://img106.imageshack.us/img106/6338/departedbg0.gif

I was looking through the rankings on hdgamedb.com and was surprised to see what has happened with the ranking of "The Departed" on HD DVD. I don't expect it to stay this low on HD DVD (especially if some try to change it after I point it out :)), but here is where "The Departed" ranks at last check:

HD DVD: 4080
Blu-ray: 704

That is about 2 and a half months since it came out.

Happy Feet is:

HD DVD: 1708
Blu-ray: 774

That is 2 months and a day since it came out.

--Darin

Why not compare a single side HD DVD of the same title to a bluray? Comparing HD DVD combos to a lower priced bluray will result in just the rankings presented.

Why not compare a single side HD DVD of the same title to a bluray? Comparing HD DVD combos to a lower priced bluray will result in just the rankings presented.

Do they actually offer a non-combo for that title, or is that the only version on HD-DVD they can compare it to?

Do they actually offer a non-combo for that title, or is that the only version on HD-DVD they can compare it to?

The Departed is only available on HD DVD in Combo Format. Still when the installed base is considered The Departed is selling 4 times better on HD DVD than on Blu-ray. For now that huge installed base is helping BD sell more total discs, but if stand-alone HD DVD players keep selling better than their BD counterparts that may change.

Visual interpretation.

http://img106.imageshack.us/img106/6338/departedbg0.gif
Wow, that's quite a difference. :eek:

I think that combo discs are affecting HD DVD sales.

Well, they are for me at least. I try to avoid buying combos as much as possible.

I think that combo discs are affecting HD DVD sales.

Well, they are for me at least. I try to avoid buying combos as much as possible.
yeah I'm with you, I love the idea of combos-its great way to get more people to buy HD's. IF they got rid of SD's and went this route, they would be selling alot, but alas, they must charge more and stop everyone from purchasing. When I walk into BB or CC and see 40 buck price tags, I say forget it. Most movies like the departed I'd love to have on HD, but I won't watch it enough to justify that expensive price.

Well, they are for me at least. I try to avoid buying combos as much as possible.

Definitely. I hate flippers and I hate the increased price. Who do they think they are, Fox? :D

Seriously, though, the only combo I have is Miami Vice and that was a gift (I would eyeball it and pick it up and look at it so often... but end up putting it back on principle, my old lady decided to buy it for me). :)

I hate flippers...

Combo HD DVDs are not flippers.

The Departed is only available on HD DVD in Combo Format. Still when the installed base is considered The Departed is selling 4 times better on HD DVD than on Blu-ray. For now that huge installed base is helping BD sell more total discs, but if stand-alone HD DVD players keep selling better than their BD counterparts that may change.

And it may not. Even in its worst months the PS3 still sells 100,000. Even with your oft-quoted abysmal attach rate that is still a large amount of potential Blu-ray customers. Pray they don't drop the price and sales don't pick up, because the alternative is not kind to HD DVD.

Why not compare a single side HD DVD of the same title to a bluray? Comparing HD DVD combos to a lower priced bluray will result in just the rankings presented.If having combos isn't an advantage, then why do they do them? Yes, I know that can sell them for more, but I'm sure there are people who buy discs because they are combos. Most of us around here may not like combos, but they are either an advantage to part of the market or they aren't. I included "Happy Feet" in the numbers and I wouldn't be surprised at all if having that be a combo increased sales over not having it be a combo, since it is a kids movie. It was also given lossless audio while the BD wasn't.

But, I would love to compare a top title that is the same price, quality, features, etc. on both formats after it has been out for a couple of months to see how it sold on each. But, the pickings are slim to none. We can go back to stuff from last year, but that changes the dynamics. Feel free to suggest some to compare, but things like "Payback" don't have the widespread appeal and the HD DVD was given an advantage on the audio from what I have read.
... but if stand-alone HD DVD players keep selling better than their BD counterparts that may change.The HD DVD standalones along with the XBOX360 add-ons need to sell well enough to counter the standalones plus the PS3s (with the relative attach rates considered). Whether they will or not is one of those $64k questions. Should be an interesting year.

--Darin

the flux,

Pray they don't drop the price and sales don't pick up, because the alternative is not kind to HD DVD.

I am very confused. The BD brain trust tells HD DVD supporters that price doesnt matter. They say that Toshiba dropping prices wont help, and cheap chinese players wont help.

But, if it is BD then price matters. Hmmmmm, sounds like a double standard to me.

the flux,



I am very confused. The BD brain trust tells HD DVD supporters that price doesnt matter. They say that Toshiba dropping prices wont help, and cheap chinese players wont help.

But, if it is BD then price matters. Hmmmmm, sounds like a double standard to me.

Who is this brain trust? Where is a link to him saying the price doesn't matter?

http://www.dsfanboy.com/media/2006/04/Mother_Brain.jpg

Combo HD DVDs are not flippers.

One side of my Miami Vice has HD and the other side has DVD. That's a "flipper" in my book... unless there is a trademarked /copyright official terminology term 'flipper' that I'm not sure of?

The BD brain trust tells HD DVD supporters that price doesnt matter.

As if you would listen to anything they had to say anyways. :rolleyes: :D

Right now it looks like individual title prices are at parity despite the supposed cost increases for Blu-ray. Even Fox is outdone by Combo pricing,though. (typically $35 for the former while the latter are $40).

I think that combo discs are affecting HD DVD sales.

Well, they are for me at least. I try to avoid buying combos as much as possible.

Sure they do owners of both HD DVD and bluray formats consistently say they buy the bluray because it's cheaper. That has to skew the numbers.

If having combos isn't an advantage, then why do they do them? Yes, I know that can sell them for more, but I'm sure there are people who buy discs because they are combos. Most of us around here may not like combos, but they are either an advantage to part of the market or they aren't. I included "Happy Feet" in the numbers and I wouldn't be surprised at all if having that be a combo increased sales over not having it be a combo, since it is a kids movie. It was also given lossless audio while the BD wasn't.

But, I would love to compare a top title that is the same price, quality, features, etc. on both formats after it has been out for a couple of months to see how it sold on each. But, the pickings are slim to none. We can go back to stuff from last year, but that changes the dynamics. Feel free to suggest some to compare, but things like "Payback" don't have the widespread appeal and the HD DVD was given an advantage on the audio from what I have read.
The HD DVD standalones along with the XBOX360 add-ons need to sell well enough to counter the standalones plus the PS3s (with the relative attach rates considered). Whether they will or not is one of those $64k questions. Should be an interesting year.

--Darin

How about Planet Earth?

brian,

howzit? Do a search on the Walmart threads, and you will find quite a few people stating that cheap players wont matter - the cheap chinese players wont matter much at all. The argument is that price isnt really a major determinant in the format war - the primary issue for these people is content.

the flux,

I am very confused. The BD brain trust tells HD DVD supporters that price doesnt matter. They say that Toshiba dropping prices wont help, and cheap chinese players wont help.

But, if it is BD then price matters. Hmmmmm, sounds like a double standard to me.

It's not really a double standard to say right now that price doesn't matter at this point. At these prices for both formats, you lose the advantage the lower each go. Eventually as get closer to each other in price, that advantage is eliminated and becomes non existant.

Price matters only if there is a large gap in the prices. Ie, if the lowest BluRay player was still $1300 vs the lowest Toshibia was now at $400. If BR released today, it would be seriously in trouble as they could not compete with HD-DVD prices offering nearly the same technologically. That case no longer exists with either HD-DVD or BR as entry level players average $100-$200 within each other.

At that price level, it will be the content available to either format that will make your average middle class person buy it. Say I'm oblivious to the details of each format, I just want my HD NOW and go into a B&M. First I'll look at player prices, sitting at 100-200 with each other and think to myself 'not bad, i can afford either', then check out the movie selection. I will buy the format that has the most movies I want at this point. What's $100 to $200 more to get the movies I want? Maybe a days worth of work? If the lower priced player suits my needs, I have a weeks gas money. See how even at these prices HD-DVD has quickly lost the price advantage? We're dealing in low hundred differences, not half thousands as before.

The average consumer will not buy one format when there is nothing on it that they want to watch. Regardless of techical specs. They are going to buy the one that has the most movies that they can enjoy right now.

Sadly Toshiba dropped the ball when it had the lead due to it's price point, at this late into the game it will be nearly impossible to reclaim what was lost. The minimum entry level BR player will remain $600 from here on out and that is without a PS3 price reduction or a cheaper BR player. Also rumors of a $300 Comp BR drive really begins to show that production is ramping up and quickly falling in price. Every day that passes brings the ability for BR to drop prices just as much as Toshiba with a new model or a price cut on the older ones. Manufactures that are in this for profit will not allow the price difference to increase to the past levels if it hurts profits or marketability. Toshiba can drop prices to $200 dollars if they want, but I gaurantee at least one (Sony) manufacture will drop prices accordingly and stay within the same price level to keep people focused on available content. Toshiba can go as low as $200 if they want, but at least Sony will be right behind them with a $300-$400 player.

Content is what is important in the end of the day, and what alot of us have been saying from day one. That is what no one seems to understand when quoting price wars. If lower Toshiba prices for HD-DVD, Sony and others will follow suit shortly after. The initial high prices for new technology on both formats have fallen rapidly and are now easily within reach of your average middle class consumer. This will not change now or in the future.

As far as Chinese players, no one has asked what the quality of these machines will be nor have they considered it. If you buy something cheap, that is exactly what you'll get. I bet all of those who are cheerleading cheap chinese players as HD-DVD's savior will never even consider to buy one as their main player. At least buying Toshiba's players you can get excellent upconversion and all the frills and replace the DVD player completely. Chinese players are going to have the bear minimum when it comes to specs, just enough to slap a HD-DVD label on them (thats even if they are HD-DVD, that's in contention). Not to mention, I know absolutely no one that owns a cheap chinese dvd player for their main entertainment system. Do you? Look around at all the houses you visit with a reasonable setup, and tell me if you recognize any non-name brands. Mostly these players will be bought for the childrens room or travel van of people who already own a Toshiba. Children can easily can break expensive electronics and doesn't need things as lossless audio or upconversion on their 20 inch tv, so cheap HD players would be for them. The living room generally is filled with familiar named brands, such as Toshiba, Saumsung, Sony, Panasonic, Yamaha, Onkyo, etc. Not to mention chepos like this going to be bought by the person that has a limited budget, and can't afford spending the $20-30 dollars per disc. Instead they will be visiting their local blockbuster to rent new releases and not buy except for must have titles.

As far as the PS3 goes, the above poster is correct. Toshiba has very much reason to be concerned about this peice of machinery. It has seen their headstart lead evaporate rather quickly equal or less in every country the PS3 was released, even with its high price and not a dedicated standalone player. Although maybe 1 out of every 5 machines might be used for a blu-ray player, that's still a lot of machines and potential BR buyers. It's becomes a bigger boogeyman for Toshiba as it stays on the market longer. More games are and will be released which only increases likelyhood of purchase and add to new potential BR buyers. Additionally two things can move even more boxes. A price cut (360 levels or below), or a blockbuster exclusive game which really is only a matter of time. Consoles sales always have been slow until the first exclusive blockbuster. As for now, most games are simply 360 ports so there's no real reason to buy if you already own a 360. This summer starts to swing things in the opposite direction as exclusive games come out for the console. The PS3 really is a ticking time bomb just by the continual possibility of a breakout title released on the PS3, and you can see that Sony knows this and are working on it. I can even give you a potential thought, that if Square announces a remake of FF7 on the PS3, it's game over for console wars. Considering that Sony still has distribution rights, used it as a technical demo, and rumors, it wouldn't surprise me.

We can argue semantics all night long however, but the real deciding point isn't price. The real factor is the public perception of this whole thing. Consumers are becoming more and more aware that there is an HD battle going on. Even though they are interested in buying into the technology, many hold off for the same reason we have FUD spewed over these boards. Obsoletion. No one wants to see a $500 peice of equipment and movies to become a virtual papeweight overnight, nor explain to the wife how that purchase a year ago now collects dust in the family closet. Announcements of Important Milestones also play a key factor with perception. This is why you see the BDA announcing things such as reaching the 1,000,000 mark first. It comforts the on-the-fense buyers by saying "Buy me, I won't become obsolete!". Quite frankly, I'd fire the Director of Marketing with Toshiba after that "but but but, we just sold 999,7999 discs too!". That gives the perception of desperation, especially if the average consumer knows HD-DVD was released much earlier.

In my department at work, each and every one of them want to buy a HD player, but I'm the only one that has one. They all want the same thing -- the war to end so they can confidently purchase either HD-DVD or BR. The second this war is finished, they will celebrate and gladly buy one with a stack of must haves such as Planet Earth. Prices arn't the way (they are already there for middle class and failing), cheap chinese players arn't the way. Content is the key.

First to score all studios wins.

How about Planet Earth?

Who to say that Planet Earth will not turn out the same? Sure ...the HD DVD version is leading right now on Amazon, but in the long run, the Blu-ray version will pull ahead. The HD DVD version leading on Amazon doesn't automatically means it will sell more than the BD version overall in the entire market. Warner indicated HD DVD only makes up 30-40% of their total HD business. :D

Yes but HD DVD buyers has increased. What was in feb doesnt automaticly apply in may.

One side of my Miami Vice has HD and the other side has DVD. That's a "flipper" in my book... unless there is a trademarked /copyright official terminology term 'flipper' that I'm not sure of?

I don't believe it's trademarked or anything, but the accepted definition of "flipper" is a disc that you have to "flip" to watch the movie. This would include such DVD titles as "A Time to Kill", where you put in the disc, watch part of the movie, take the disc out and turn it over, then watch the rest of the movie.

Combos aren't flippers because you put in the disc, watch the entire movie, and put the disc away. The content on the other side is the same, as opposed to a continuation. You don't ever have to turn the disc over if you don't want to.

It's a simple distinction but an important one. People despise flippers for reasons that are completely understandable to everybody. It interrupts your viewing experience. The only downside to combos (aside from the price, which is an entirely seperate issue) is the loss of disc art, which isn't a big deal to everybody.

While the rankings may seem skewed, I'd bet on Amazon the difference in units sold per day is less than 10 between the two formats. Titles ranked in the 700s often sell fewer than 5 units a day, so I don't see a big gap in real terms. Now difference between ranked 10 and 700 is much bigger in units sold than between 700 and 4000.

How about Planet Earth?I think it will be a good one to watch. Just that we'll have to wait a while to see what the rankings do with time.

--Darin

It's a simple distinction but an important one.I think things get blurred when some of the extras are on the other side and so people who want to watch the movie and some of those extras have to flip the disc to see both.

--Darin

While the rankings may seem skewed, I'd bet on Amazon the difference in units sold per day is less than 10 between the two formats. Titles ranked in the 700s often sell fewer than 5 units a day, so I don't see a big gap in real terms. Now difference between ranked 10 and 700 is much bigger in units sold than between 700 and 4000.While true, it is also true of some of the HD DVD player vs Blu-ray player rankings on Amazon (except that even lower rankings are selling few per day). Might want to keep that in mind the next time you use those (where a player ranked in the top 10 DVD players can be selling under 20 per day).

--Darin

I think things get blurred when some of the extras are on the other side and so people who want to watch the movie and some of those extras have to flip the disc to see both.

I agree, it does cause a bit of confusion. To me, though, this is no different than the hundreds of SD DVD releases that have the special features on a completely seperate disc. If you already have to open the tray to watch them, I don't see a big difference between flipping the disc over or swapping it for another one.

I don't believe it's trademarked or anything, but the accepted definition of "flipper" is a disc that you have to "flip" to watch the movie. This would include such DVD titles as "A Time to Kill", where you put in the disc, watch part of the movie, take the disc out and turn it over, then watch the rest of the movie.

Combos aren't flippers because you put in the disc, watch the entire movie, and put the disc away. The content on the other side is the same, as opposed to a continuation. You don't ever have to turn the disc over if you don't want to.

It's a simple distinction but an important one. People despise flippers for reasons that are completely understandable to everybody. It interrupts your viewing experience. The only downside to combos (aside from the price, which is an entirely seperate issue) is the loss of disc art, which isn't a big deal to everybody.


I've told these people the exact same thing in a thread I created awhile back. Their skulls are too thick to realize that they are not flippers, and that combos don't detract the movie watching experience. Most of them really whine about the lack of disc art, which is very trivial. Especially for top notch HD.

While the rankings may seem skewed, I'd bet on Amazon the difference in units sold per day is less than 10 between the two formats. Titles ranked in the 700s often sell fewer than 5 units a day, so I don't see a big gap in real terms. Now difference between ranked 10 and 700 is much bigger in units sold than between 700 and 4000.

When the Nielsen Q1 numbers came out and showed The Departed on Blu-ray sold 1.7:1 against the HD DVD, it seemed very much in line with the ratio I interpreted from the graphs didn't it?

I wasn't aware the ratio was 1.7:1, a link?

Now, if you recall I wasn't doubting you were right, but that the conclusion could not possibly have come from looking at that graph since it showed HD DVD with a negative slope for a while! Fortune tellers are sometimes right, but their methods are still suspect to me :)

I was looking through the rankings on hdgamedb.com and was surprised to see what has happened with the ranking of "The Departed" on HD DVD. I don't expect it to stay this low on HD DVD (especially if some try to change it after I point it out :)), but here is where "The Departed" ranks at last check:

HD DVD: 4080
Blu-ray: 704

That is about 2 and a half months since it came out.

Happy Feet is:

HD DVD: 1708
Blu-ray: 774

That is 2 months and a day since it came out.

--Darin

Combine these kind of stats from multiple sites w/ what looks to be another 70/30 sales ratio week, and it looks like if BD can turn on the heat in terms of releases and a continued trickle of PS3's into HH's, they have a real chance to create real distance and we can finally get to one format... :o

Botton line you need two single sided disc of the same title to better gauge sales. Otherwise it's like two gas stations selling the same brand of gas across the street from each other. One is selling gas for a dollar more per gallon. Which station is selling the most gas? The single or the combo brand gas?

Botton line you need two single sided disc of the same title to better gauge sales. Otherwise it's like two gas stations selling the same brand of gas across the street from each other. One is selling gas for a dollar more per gallon. Which station is selling the most gas? The single or the combo brand gas?Your analogy would work if both discs were the same, but the combo part must be worth something in the marketplace, or they wouldn't be doing it. Or at least the studio thinks it helps sales in some way and I believe they would be right (i.e., there are people who will buy the disc because it is a combo who wouldn't have otherwise). It is more like one station is selling gas with a "free" case of beer and charging more, while the one charging less doesn't include the beer.

The combo could be an advantage for sales right when a day-and-date title comes out and become a disadvantage toward sales later on, since at that point more potential buyers already own the DVD. A Best Buy near me had "The Departed" in the combo format right next to the DVD versions on the day they came out. The combo was also a fair amount off, but from what I heard later, it was a mistake that Best Buy didn't mean to make (and corrected it within a couple of days or so).

--Darin

And it may not. Even in its worst months the PS3 still sells 100,000. Even with your oft-quoted abysmal attach rate that is still a large amount of potential Blu-ray customers. Pray they don't drop the price and sales don't pick up, because the alternative is not kind to HD DVD.

Yes and if we include attach rates then those 100,000 PS3s don’t make the impact they should. The current overall attach rate for BD is less than one movie per year, while HD DVD has an attach rate north of 20 movies a year. So let’s be nice with those numbers and say that the BD attach rate will move up to 2 movies per player assuming S3 and POTC3 do as well as some think. We’ll be mean with the HD DVD numbers and say the attach rate is only 16 per player based on the attach rate lowering as the hardware becomes less expensive.

So that means that all BD devices including the PS3 must sell eight times better than all HD DVD devices. Perhaps that will happen. It’s always possible, but without some compelling new reasons to own a PS3 or a serious price-drop for BD stand-alones I don’t think it’s likely. I don’t see Sony lowering the price on the PS3 when they just eliminated their low-cost option. If they do lower the price of the PS3 then MS will lower the price on the 360, widen the next-gen console gap and make BD look even less likely to succeed. I see no reason to pray against that, nor would I waste God’s time praying about something as insignificant as the HDM format war, but I digress.

Another poster mentioned that Warner said that BD made up 60-70% of Warner’s HDM sales. If that is true it gives me even more hope for HD DVD because Warner has already said that they make about the same amount on HD DVDs as they do on BDs. If Warner construes 2 to 1 sales numbers as “about the same”, HD DVD has a long time to prove that they are viable.

The current overall attach rate for BD is less than one movie per year, while HD DVD has an attach rate north of 20 movies a year.No way. I hope you didn't just make those numbers up. Please show us how you came up with those. I'll get you started. According to vgchartz.com the sales for the PS3 for "Americas" is now at 1.39 million. The HD DVD group claimed over 175k units just at the end of 2006 and higher now. Recently they said 250k for players worldwide, but didn't make it clear whether that included the xbox360 add-ons that have probably sold around 150k (should be at least over 130k just for North America). According to the latest Nielsen numbers the since inception numbers favor Blu-ray for discs sold about 1.38:1. Don't be fooled by those who are confused and claim that the difference in disc sales is 2k based on something that didn't say that (they compared apples to oranges to get within 2k of a Blu-ray number).

So, please back up your claim that has HD DVD with an attach rate of over 20 times that of Blu-ray or retract it. There is enough misinformation around here.

The HD DVD group seems to love to throw out their annualized attach rate of 28, but simple math would show that it doesn't match up with claims from the HD DVD camp about how many players they've sold and the number of discs they've sold. If only 30k of those 175k+ had been owned an average of 6 months in 2006, that would be 700k discs just for those 30k players at 28 per annualized and 500k just for those 30k players at 20 per annualized. Doesn't add up when the other players are considered.

--Darin

No way. I hope you didn't just make those numbers up. Please show us how you came up with those. I'll get you started. According to vgchartz.com the sales for the PS3 for "Americas" is now at 1.39 million. The HD DVD group claimed over 175k units just at the end of 2006 and higher now. Recently they said 250k for players worldwide, but didn't make it clear whether that included the xbox360 add-ons that have probably sold around 150k (should be at least over 130k just for North America). According to the latest Nielsen numbers the since inception numbers favor Blu-ray for discs sold about 1.38:1. Don't be fooled by those who are confused and claim that the difference in disc sales is 2k based on something that didn't say that (they compared apples to oranges to get within 2k of a Blu-ray number).

So, please back up your claim that has HD DVD with an attach rate of over 20 times that of Blu-ray or retract it. There is enough misinformation around here.

The HD DVD group seems to love to throw out their annualized attach rate of 28, but simple math would show that it doesn't match up with claims from the HD DVD camp about how many players they've sold and the number of discs they've sold. If only 30k of those 175k+ had been owned an average of 6 months in 2006, that would be 700k discs just for those 30k players at 28 per annualized and 500k just for those 30k players at 20 per annualized. Doesn't add up when the other players are considered.

--Darin

Well I think you covered all of your bases there. Essentially you've said that we should trust the numbers that support the BDA and distrust the numbers that support the HD DVD camp. That being the case I can't satisfy your request to back up my claim because you will simply call it BS.

I could point out this (http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Disc_Sales/HD_DVD_Camp_Touts_Sales_Data,_Attach_Rates/302) , but you already said that was BS. I mean Nielson numbers were used to reach that(28:1) attach rate. Granted those numbers were based on sales to date, but the sales of The Departed and Happy Feet seem to prove that the information is correct (over 20:1) or close (much higher attach rate for HD DVD compared to BD) to correct.

I could point out this (http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/04/26/hd-dvd-to-blu-ray-oh-yeah-well-weve-sold-a-lot-of-discs-too/) , but you also said that was BS. It's not; oh I agree that there is a little apples to oranges going on since the BD numbers are from a different date. Still HD DVD isn't far behind. It's about 1.3 million BDs sold to 1 million HD DVDs, which is probably where Nielson came up with up the 1.38-1 ratio you mentioned. Let's keep in mind that those numbers only reflect sales at the register so Talladega Nights counts for BD even if it was acquired via a PS3 coupon, but the 100,000 + copies of King Kong that came with the 360 add-on don't count for HD DVD.

Call everything from the BDA gospel and everything from the HD DVD group FUD if you wish, but the truth is somewhere in between. I adjusted my numbers to take that FUD and BS into account by reducing the HD DVD attach rate (16:1) and increasing the BD attach rate (2:1) and you totally ignored that fact in your response. I wonder why?

Edited for clarity

Your analogy would work if both discs were the same, but the combo part must be worth something in the marketplace, or they wouldn't be doing it. Or at least the studio thinks it helps sales in some way and I believe they would be right (i.e., there are people who will buy the disc because it is a combo who wouldn't have otherwise). It is more like one station is selling gas with a "free" case of beer and charging more, while the one charging less doesn't include the beer.

The combo could be an advantage for sales right when a day-and-date title comes out and become a disadvantage toward sales later on, since at that point more potential buyers already own the DVD. A Best Buy near me had "The Departed" in the combo format right next to the DVD versions on the day they came out. The combo was also a fair amount off, but from what I heard later, it was a mistake that Best Buy didn't mean to make (and corrected it within a couple of days or so).

--Darin

The discussion is not whether combos are worth their price etc,. My point is you cannot fairly judge title sales number when that same title sells for 5 plus dollars more on the other format irrespective of combo or single sided.

No way. I hope you didn't just make those numbers up. Please show us how you came up with those. I'll get you started. According to vgchartz.com the sales for the PS3 for "Americas" is now at 1.39 million. The HD DVD group claimed over 175k units just at the end of 2006 and higher now. Recently they said 250k for players worldwide, but didn't make it clear whether that included the xbox360 add-ons that have probably sold around 150k (should be at least over 130k just for North America). According to the latest Nielsen numbers the since inception numbers favor Blu-ray for discs sold about 1.38:1. Don't be fooled by those who are confused and claim that the difference in disc sales is 2k based on something that didn't say that (they compared apples to oranges to get within 2k of a Blu-ray number).

So, please back up your claim that has HD DVD with an attach rate of over 20 times that of Blu-ray or retract it. There is enough misinformation around here.

The HD DVD group seems to love to throw out their annualized attach rate of 28, but simple math would show that it doesn't match up with claims from the HD DVD camp about how many players they've sold and the number of discs they've sold. If only 30k of those 175k+ had been owned an average of 6 months in 2006, that would be 700k discs just for those 30k players at 28 per annualized and 500k just for those 30k players at 20 per annualized. Doesn't add up when the other players are considered.

--Darin


Obviously the attach rate drops as new consumers buy HD DVD players. Last year it probably was 28, but has fallen as more people have purchased the $400 A2, which had a $100 price reduction earlier this year.

Well I think you covered all of your bases there. Essentially you've said that we should trust the numbers that support the BDA and distrust the numbers that support the HD DVD camp.Nope.
That being the case I can't satisfy your request to back up my claim because you will simply call it BS.Is it too much to ask you to do some simple math to backup your claim?
I could point out this (http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Disc_Sales/HD_DVD_Camp_Touts_Sales_Data,_Attach_Rates/302) , but you already said that was BS.No, I did not. The attach rate in September or October of last year is not the attach rate on April 3rd, 2007.
I mean Nielson numbers were used to reach that(28:1) attach rate.Yep. And you can come up with some number of players for that timeframe and calculate how many discs that accounts for out of their close to 1 million as of now. Take 8.4 times the number of players. Around that timeframe Robert (of Value Electronics) claimed that Toshiba had sold 70k players, which he then changed to 68k after I pointed out a discrepancy in his claims. But based on later claims from the head of Toshiba of America I would use something like 30k players sold at the time of that initial 8.4 and 28 annualized claim.
I could point out this (http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/04/26/hd-dvd-to-blu-ray-oh-yeah-well-weve-sold-a-lot-of-discs-too/) , but you also said that was BS.Nope. What would be BS are claims that HD DVD was within 2k of Blu-ray. I have the original email from the marketing group and it doesn't say sales were within 2k. It was they 998k is within 2k of the claim from Blu-ray. But, it seems pretty clear that they added numbers to their side and I don't see anything wrong with what they said, just that somebody at IGN had some trouble interpreting it and assumed that they said sales were within 2k.
It's not; oh I agree that there is a little apples to oranges going on since the BD numbers are from a different date. Still HD DVD isn't far behind. It's about 1.3 million BDs sold to 1 million HD DVDs, which is probably where Nielson came up with up the 1.38-1 ratio you mentioned.The 1.38:1 came from Nielsen's latest data of 58%/42% for Since Inception, but I would agree that 1.3 million BDs to 1 million HD DVDs is in the right ballpark for the data we have.
Let's keep in mind that those numbers only reflect sales at the register so Talladega Nights counts for BD even if it was acquired via a PS3 coupon, but the 100,000 + copies of King Kong that came with the 360 add-on don't count for HD DVD.The Talladega Nights that came with the PS3 didn't count in the numbers just like King Kong for the XBOX360 didn't. They both came in the box. And I don't think TN was even on the list of things where people could get a $10 rebate. I'm pretty sure the Nielsen report for sales ending March 18th had less than 20k copies of TN counted. How many TN copies are you taking out from the sales for your numbers?
Call everything from the BDA gospel and everything from the HD DVD group FUD if you wish, but the truth is somewhere in between.No, I am not calling everything from the BDA gospel and everything from the HD DVD group FUD. Just do some simple math from the numbers, including those from the HD group and you should see that your claims that came out to over 20:1 the attach rate for HD DVD were BS. Take the 8.4 discs per player back around September, the 175k+ players total at the end of 2006 in North America (adjust it for US if you want), and the 998k discs total recently and see if you can get to your over 20:1 claim over 4 months into 2007.
I adjusted my numbers to take that FUD and BS into account by reducing the HD DVD attach rate (16:1) and increasing the BD attach rate (2:1) and you totally ignored that fact in your response. I wonder why?Because saying that things will move doesn't change that your claims of where things are, currently aren't true. At least not in combo. You might be able to get one of them while the other moves, but feel free to show us that:
The current overall attach rate for BD is less than one movie per year, while HD DVD has an attach rate north of 20 movies a year.is true if you think I am in the wrong.

Please, just do some simple math. For instance, 175k players in NA owned at the end of 2006 at an annualized attach rate of 20 would be 1.17 million discs by itself just from the beginning of January 2007 to the beginning of May 2007 and there are still sales for 2006 to account for if the attach rate of 20 was going to hold up for the whole time (like 30k players owned for an average of 6 months in 2006 would be 300k discs right there for that attach rate and then there are the players sold in 2007). You could lower the 175k for just the US if the HD DVD claim of 998k discs was just for the US, but it doesn't look like it to me. Are you seeing yet how far your claim of HD DVD having an attach rate north of 20 movies a year is just using the claims from the HD DVD group for the number of discs sold and players sold? If you are going to believe that the annualized attach rate is north of 20 right now, then you will have to not believe something else from the HD DVD group, because the numbers just don't come out there.

Not considering the time owned for a second, for HD DVD to have an attach rate that is over 20 times that of Blu-ray today, they would have to have over 20 times as many players, if they've sold the same amount of software. And if Blu-ray has sold 1.3 times as many discs, they would have to have over 26 times as many players in order to have an attach rate that is less than 1/20th that of HD DVD, like you claimed.

--Darin

Obviously the attach rate drops as new consumers buy HD DVD players. Last year it probably was 28, but has fallen as more people have purchased the $400 A2, which had a $100 price reduction earlier this year.Yep, and probably the XBOX360 add-on also. Even the average attach rate of the first 30k early adopter types may have fallen with time. If it didn't and stayed at 28, then if the first 30k owners averaged buying their player at the middle of 2006, 10 months later they would have bought 700k discs (and 500k if they dropped to a 20 annual rate). Yet HD DVD just announced recently that they hit 998k and there are a lot of other players to account for (over 140k sold in 2006 that have been owned for over 4 months now).

--Darin

Nope.
Is it too much to ask you to do some simple math to backup your claim?
No, I did not. The attach rate in September or October of last year is not the attach rate on April 3rd, 2007.
Yep. And you can come up with some number of players for that timeframe and calculate how many discs that accounts for out of their close to 1 million as of now. Take 8.4 times the number of players. Around that timeframe Robert (of Value Electronics) claimed that Toshiba had sold 70k players, which he then changed to 68k after I pointed out a discrepancy in his claims. But based on later claims from the head of Toshiba of America I would use something like 30k players sold at the time of that initial 8.4 and 28 annualized claim.
Nope. What would be BS are claims that HD DVD was within 2k of Blu-ray. I have the original email from the marketing group and it doesn't say sales were within 2k. It was they 998k is within 2k of the claim from Blu-ray. But, it seems pretty clear that they added numbers to their side and I don't see anything wrong with what they said, just that somebody at IGN had some trouble interpreting it and assumed that they said sales were within 2k.
The 1.38:1 came from Nielsen's latest data of 58%/42% for Since Inception, but I would agree that 1.3 million BDs to 1 million HD DVDs is in the right ballpark for the data we have.
The Talladega Nights that came with the PS3 didn't count in the numbers just like King Kong for the XBOX360 didn't. They both came in the box. And I don't think TN was even on the list of things where people could get a $10 rebate. I'm pretty sure the Nielsen report for sales ending March 18th had less than 20k copies of TN counted. How many TN copies are you taking out from the sales for your numbers?
No, I am not calling everything from the BDA gospel and everything from the HD DVD group FUD. Just do some simple math from the numbers, including those from the HD group and you should see that your claims that came out to over 20:1 the attach rate for HD DVD were BS. Take the 8.4 discs per player back around September, the 175k+ players total at the end of 2006 in North America (adjust it for US if you want), and the 998k discs total recently and see if you can get to your over 20:1 claim over 4 months into 2007.
Because saying that things will move doesn't change that your claims of where things are, currently aren't true. At least not in combo. You might be able to get one of them while the other moves, but feel free to show us that:
is true if you think I am in the wrong.

Please, just do some simple math. For instance, 175k players in NA owned at the end of 2006 at an annualized attach rate of 20 would be 1.17 million discs by itself by the beginning of May 2007 and there are still sales for 2006 to account for if the attach rate of 20 was going to hold up for the whole time (like 30k players owned for an average of 6 months in 2006 would be 300k discs right there for that attach rate and then there are the players sold in 2007). You could lower the 175k for just the US if the HD DVD claim of 998k discs was just for the US, but it doesn't look like it to me. Are you seeing yet how far your claim of HD DVD having an attach rate north of 20 movies a year is just using the claims from the HD DVD group for the number of discs sold and players sold? If you are going to believe that the annualized attach rate is north of 20 right now, then you will have to not believe something else from the HD DVD group, because the numbers just don't come out there.

--Darin

You asked for numbers and I gave you numbers. I said you would call them BS and you did. I quoted numbers and provided links. Now you go ahead and provide links to go with your numbers and the discussion can continue. By the way how did Sony package TN with PS3's that went on sale November 17, 2006 when the movie wasn't released on DVD or Blu-Ray until December 12, 2006?

You also seem to ignore the fact that I adjusted the figures simply to favor BD. I didn’t claim 28:1 for HD DVD (Toshiba did), but I did say 16:1 since that seems more in line with sales figures. I did not subtract Talladega Nights from the BD figures and I didn’t add the 100,000 + copies of King Kong to the HD DVD figures. I just used the numbers that have been stated in the press and adjusted them IN FAVOR of Blu-ray in the interest at getting into a meaningful discussion.

I can’t tell you what the real BD attach rate numbers are, NO ONE CAN, because no company has published BD stand-alone figures. Just using the numbers you mentioned (1.39 million PS3s in NA and 1.3 million BDs) proves that BD has an attach rate less than one, but without knowing how many stand-alones have been sold we won’t know exactly how far below one that number is.

We can also use your numbers to figure that there are more HD DVDs out there. Feel free to add 150,000 HD DVDs to the 1 million total to account for the 150,000 King Kong discs that came with the HD DVD drive. So now we’re up to 1,150,000 HD DVDs vs. 1,300,000 BDs and we haven’t even included all those free Toshiba discs. If Toshiba has sold 20,000 players with the 5 free discs offer that’s another 100,000 HD DVDs. I don’t know what IGN was thinking and the gap probably is bigger than 2,000 discs. Still even the Nielson numbers don’t reflect the total attach rate because those tens of thousands of free HD DVDs are not counted in the Nielson numbers. Depending on what the up to date sales numbers for the 360 add-on and Toshiba stand-alones are there could be as many HD DVDs in consumer’s hands (1.3 million) as there are BDs.

The point I was trying to get at remains true; no matter how you spin the numbers HD DVD has a higher attach rate than BD and HD DVD stand-alone players are outselling their BD counterparts. Those two facts when combined COULD result in equal numbers of SI sales for the two formats by years end. That would be pretty amazing coming a year after Sony declared victory over HD DVD.

You asked for numbers and I gave you numbers.And if you do simple math with them, you should see in no time that your claim that "HD DVD has an attach rate north of 20 movies a year" is not supported by those numbers.
I said you would call them BS and you did.Your claim of over 20 for HD DVD while Blu-ray's is under 1 is BS. I'm not sure if you are having trouble comprehending or if you are just claiming that I called those other things BS for some other reason, as I clearly did not call the statement of an annualized rate of 28 back in October BS or the 998k BS. Those could very likely be true, but just use them with simple math and they go against your over 20 claim for now. Pointing out that your numbers are off doesn't mean that those are off and it should be obvious that 28 could be true in September or October of last year without 20 being true today.
I quoted numbers and provided links.And they support what I said.
Now you go ahead and provide links to go with your numbers and the discussion can continue.Your links support what I said, so what do you need for links? That the HD DVD group claimed 175k+ players for 2006 in NA? Do you dispute it and need a link. If not, just do the math and it will support what I said, that your original claim isn't true. What is it you need? Do you need me to do all the simple math, or can you do some to come up with an annualized attach rate for HD DVD that you can backup with numbers?
By the way how did Sony package TN with PS3's that went on sale November 17, 2006 when the movie wasn't released on DVD or Blu-Ray until December 12, 2006?Easy. People who bought the PS3 got TN early (although that version was the theatrical cut). That was part of the bonus of buying one of the first PS3s.
You also seem to ignore the fact that I adjusted the figures simply to favor BD. I didn’t claim 28:1 for HD DVD (Toshiba did), but I did say 16:1 since that seems more in line with sales figures.Interesting that you now only mention the 16:1 figure after you said:
The current overall attach rate for BD is less than one movie per year, while HD DVD has an attach rate north of 20 movies a year.and the next sentence included "say that the BD attach rate will move" (future tense) and the next one said that you were going to be mean with the HD DVD numbers. Going below 20 isn't being mean, its being realistic based on the other claims they have made. You clearly claimed that HD DVD has an attach rate north of 20 movies a year and you can ignore that now if you want to, but that was your claim and then you said you were going to be mean to HD DVD and use a different number.
We can also use your numbers to figure that there are more HD DVDs out there.Nope, because you left out 500k copies of Talladega Nights for Blu-ray (even though I didn't quote the whole section where you did that). If you are going to count King Kong, then you need to count Talledega Nights. Both came in the boxes (I bought both the add-on with KK and the PS3 with TN).

If you want to make the point that HD DVD has a higher attach rate, then you should be able to do it without making bogus claims like over 20 times the attach rate. I figured most of us knew a year ago that HD DVD should have a higher attach rate, just based on the different approaches. I don't think any intelligent person thought that the PS3 would have as high an attach rate as standalones or a device like the add-on that makes sure that other game system owners don't get counted. The number I used long ago as one that would be significant if it happened was 20% for the PS3. Or basically 1/5th the movie attach rate of standalones.

--Darin

One more I missed.Just using the numbers you mentioned (1.39 million PS3s in NA and 1.3 million BDs) proves that BD has an attach rate less than one, but without knowing how many stand-alones have been sold we won’t know exactly how far below one that number is.You said "per year" before and now you are changing to not annualizing things, so this doesn't support what you said. The average amount of time those have been owned is way less than a year. If you applied the same rules to HD DVD as you did above to Blu-ray, then you should end up with an attach rate of under 5 for HD DVD (one million discs with over 200k players sold). The above is the kind of mistake that can result in thinking that HD DVD has an annualized attach rate of over 20 times that of Blu-ray.

--Darin

If you want to make the point that HD DVD has a higher attach rate, then you should be able to do it without making bogus claims like over 20 times the attach rate. I figured most of us knew a year ago that HD DVD should have a higher attach rate, just based on the different approaches. I don't think any intelligent person thought that the PS3 would have as high an attach rate as standalones or a device like the add-on that makes sure that other game system owners don't get counted. The number I used long ago as one that would be significant if it happened was 20% for the PS3. Or basically 1/5th the movie attach rate of standalones.

--Darin

This reminds me of the last time I had a discussion with you about this topic. It starts out nice enough and then you begin the implied insults with comments like “I don't think any intelligent person thought that the PS3 would have as high an attach rate as stand-alones or a device like the add-on that makes sure that other game system owners don't get counted.” As if that has anything to do with this discussion. Honestly explain that one to me. Where did any person, intelligent or otherwise, say that the PS3 would have an attach rate as high as stand-alones?

Play semantics if you want. Toshiba claimed 28:1 and more than 20:1 has been stated several times by several media outlets. BD attach rates of less than 1 have also been mentioned in several media outlets. I provided a couple of links to support the fact that these numbers are not based on my personal opinion. You keep asking me to do math without providing any links to the numbers you’re quoting.

I will perform the math equation you request when you provide the information and supporting documentation to do so. I think you should go back and look at the numbers you are throwing around. As I pointed out in my last post 1.39 million is a larger number than 1.3 million. Since the former are PS3 NA sales numbers YOU PROVIDED and the later are BD sales numbers YOU PROVIDED I would think you could trust your own math. I could be a smart ass and say something about how intelligent people know that 1.39 is larger than 1.3, but I won’t stoop to your level.

No matter how you spin the numbers the HD DVD attach rate is much higher than the BD attach rate and The Departed is an example of that. I don’t see you disputing that fact and I don’ see you disputing the fact hat HD DVD stand-alones are selling better than BD stand-alones. Thus my point is still valid. Arguing if the attach rate is closer to 20 or 16 or 10 or even 5 ignores the fact that any of those is several factors larger than the BD attach rate. Perhaps I was wrong when I said 20:1; I’m certainly willing to entertain that possibility. But even if the numbers were as low as 5:1 my points remain valid; if HD DVD attach rates and stand-alone hardware sales maintain their current lead we could see SI sales parity by year’s end.

Now feel free to reply with more side-stepping and veiled insults.

One more I missed.You said "per year" before and now you are changing to not annualizing things, so this doesn't support what you said. The average amount of time those have been owned is way less than a year. If you applied the same rules to HD DVD as you did above to Blu-ray, then you should end up with an attach rate of under 5 for HD DVD (one million discs with over 200k players sold). The above is the kind of mistake that can result in thinking that HD DVD has an annualized attach rate of over 20 times that of Blu-ray.

--Darin

Yes and every time someone walks out of a Circuit City with a new HD DVD player and 4 free HD DVDs that could translates into an annual attach rate of 1460. We don’t have the numbers to come up with a real annual attach rate and I doubt the numbers are available. I think when it’s all said and done that number will be around 16 for HD DVD by the end of the year and I think it’s currently around 20. My HD DVD collection and those of my friends seem to bear out those numbers just like the Toshiba press release did. I tell you what; I’m at work and thus cut off from many sources by the company firewalls so why don’t you just come up with the numbers and we’ll discuss those. Since you obviously have a commanding understanding of the subject and seem to have all the details worked out you tell me what the attach rate for both formats is.

See I think The Departed (the subject of this thread) is a good indicator that the HD DVD attach rate is much higher. I think that fact combined with the stand-alone sales advantage could result in SI disc sales parity by years end. I’ve made my point at least three times now and given you carte blanche to come up with any numbers you want. So invent some numbers and let’s move the discussion to the next level.

This reminds me of the last time I had a discussion with you about this topic. It starts out nice enough and then you begin the implied insults with comments like “I don't think any intelligent person thought that the PS3 would have as high an attach rate as stand-alones or a device like the add-on that makes sure that other game system owners don't get counted.”That wasn't an implied insult. I started to put that nobody thought it would have as high an attach rate, and then decided that there might be somebody out there who did, so didn't want to make that statement for everybody.
As if that has anything to do with this discussion. Honestly explain that one to me. Where did any person, intelligent or otherwise, say that the PS3 would have an attach rate as high as stand-alones?What it has to do with the conversation is when you switched to, "The point I was trying to get at remains true". I have never disputed the point you were trying to get at. I called you on the claims that worked out to over 20:1. I have never disputed that HD DVD would have a higher attach rate and my posts from long ago will bear out that I never expected the PS3 to have as high an attach rate as standalones, so there is no revelation in pointing out that HD DVD has the higher attach rate. It is the over 20:1 claim that was wrong and no matter the final point you wanted to make, that shouldn't be left out there to mislead people.
Play semantics if you want. Toshiba claimed 28:1 and more than 20:1 has been stated several times by several media outlets.I weighed about 50 lbs at some point when I was a child, but it doesn't mean I weigh 50 lbs now. Toshiba claimed 28:1 when the format was about 6 months old. Doesn't mean it is over 20:1 now.
You keep asking me to do math without providing any links to the numbers you’re quoting.Again, what numbers do you want links for? We agreed on the approximately 1 million discs. Do you need me to provide a link to the 175k+ players that the HD DVD claimed to have sold in North America in 2006? I figure that if you could find those other ones, the 175k+ number shouldn't be in dispute.
I will perform the math equation you request when you provide the information and supporting documentation to do so.With the numbers you already provided and the 175k+ for the end of 2006 you should already be able to see the problem with a claim of over 20.
I think you should go back and look at the numbers you are throwing around. As I pointed out in my last post 1.39 million is a larger number than 1.3 million. Since the former are PS3 NA sales numbers YOU PROVIDED and the later are BD sales numbers YOU PROVIDED I would think you could trust your own math. I could be a smart ass and say something about how intelligent people know that 1.39 is larger than 1.3, but I won’t stoop to your level.Probably good that you don't do that, since 1.39 being larger than 1.3 doesn't support your original claim of:
The current overall attach rate for BD is less than one movie per year...when none of those PS3s have been owned for even 6 months and none of standalone Blu-ray players have been owned for even a year. Even if 1.5 million had been owned for an average of 5 months (around the beginning of December 2006), 1.3 million movies would work out to over 2 movies per year, not less than one movie per year (although I've used movies instead of discs for consistency).
No matter how you spin the numbers the HD DVD attach rate is much higher than the BD attach rate and The Departed is an example of that.Of course the HD DVD attach rate is much higher (as it should be) and I've never disputed that. And "The Departed" is definitely not an example that supports an over 20:1 claim. You can change the goalposts to whether HD DVD has a much higher attach rate, but that was not what I referred to. I clearly was questioning your claims that came out to over 20:1 attach rate advantage for HD DVD.

I didn't quote your other points or call into question the point that Blu-ray needs to sell more PS3s to keep up with standalones (I've known that for a long time). I called your over 20:1 into question and I hope that you are starting to see that it isn't even close based on the other numbers we have or can make close enough estimations of.

--Darin

That wasn't an implied insult. I started to put that nobody thought it would have as high an attach rate, and then decided that there might be somebody out there who did, so didn't want to make that statement for everybody.
What it has to do with the conversation is when you switched to, "The point I was trying to get at remains true". I have never disputed the point you were trying to get at. I called you on the claims that worked out to over 20:1. I have never disputed that HD DVD would have a higher attach rate and my posts from long ago will bear out that I never expected the PS3 to have as high an attach rate as standalones, so there is no revelation in pointing out that HD DVD has the higher attach rate. It is the over 20:1 claim that was wrong and no matter the final point you wanted to make, that shouldn't be left out there to mislead people.
I weighed about 50 lbs at some point when I was a child, but it doesn't mean I weigh 50 lbs now. Toshiba claimed 28:1 when the format was about 6 months old. Doesn't mean it is over 20:1 now.
Again, what numbers do you want links for? We agreed on the approximately 1 million discs. Do you need me to provide a link to the 175k+ players that the HD DVD claimed to have sold in North America in 2006? I figure that if you could find those other ones, the 175k+ number shouldn't be in dispute.
With the numbers you already provided and the 175k+ for the end of 2006 you should already be able to see the problem with a claim of over 20.
Probably good that you don't do that, since 1.39 being larger than 1.3 doesn't support your original claim of:
when none of those PS3s have been owned for even 6 months and none of standalone Blu-ray players have been owned for even a year. Even if 1.5 million had been owned for an average of 5 months (around the beginning of December 2006), 1.3 million movies would work out to over 2 movies per year, not less than one movie per year (although I've used movies instead of discs for consistency).
Of course the HD DVD attach rate is much higher (as it should be) and I've never disputed that. And "The Departed" is definitely not an example that supports an over 20:1 claim. You can change the goalposts to whether HD DVD has a much higher attach rate, but that was not what I referred to. I clearly was questioning your claims that came out to over 20:1 attach rate advantage for HD DVD.

I didn't quote your other points or call into question the point that Blu-ray needs to sell more PS3s to keep up with standalones (I've known that for a long time). I called your over 20:1 into question and I hope that you are starting to see that it isn't even close based on the other numbers we have or can make close enough estimations of.

--Darin

Yes the attach rate numbers that Toshiba provided are six months old now. To be honest now that both formats are around a year since inception it is going to be difficult to nail down a solid attach rate. There is no way to know for sure because there are too many factors at work as we have both previously mentioned. Still that 28:1 number is the only solid number we have to work with. Obviously they have changed in the last six months and the larger the installed base becomes the lower the attach rate will become.

The Departed is one movie and it’s a movie that sold about four times better on HD DVD than it did on BD. Happy Feet did similar numbers and Planet Earth may do even better. Those are recent numbers and they seem to support the idea that the HD DVD attach rate is significantly higher than the BD attach rate.

I suppose our only dispute is how much higher the attach rate is. I say it is north of 20 based on the idea that six months ago it was 28 and HD DVD media sales have been strong considering the installed base. It is doubtful that they have maintained the 28:1 rate, but I think 20:1 is realistic. I have mentioned the stand-alone HD DVD sales several times and I think that supports the 20:1 rate. Why? Because Toshiba has been offering a minimum of 3 free discs with every purchase since January and the CC deal has resulted in some getting 9 free HD DVDs since March. Now assuming those buyers have purchased nothing else the attach rate for those sales varies from a low of 6:1 to a high of 54:1.

So we know that every HD DVD stand-alone sold this year has a minimum attach rate of six films and we know that those that purchased at CC the first day the 9 free films offer have an attach rate of 54 films. We know that The Departed, Happy Feet and perhaps the Planet Earth HD DVDs have outsold their BD counterparts by a factor of at least 4 to 1 when the installed base is taken into account. Using those numbers I think 20:1 is a realistic attach rate right now. It may not be the 28:1 it once was, but the 3 free movies means it is impossible for it to be the 5:1 you suggested.

The numbers I would like, if you can source them, are total Blu-Ray Player sales in NA and total HD DVD Player sales in NA. I would really be interested to see BD stand-alone sales numbers, but as I said earlier I don’t think any of the CEs has released those numbers.

The Departed is one movie and it’s a movie that sold about four times better on HD DVD than it did on BD. Happy Feet did similar numbers and Planet Earth may do even better. Those are recent numbers and they seem to support the idea that the HD DVD attach rate is significantly higher than the BD attach rate.I agree that they support that the attach rate is significantly higher on HD DVD than Blu-ray, just not 20:1+ higher. The last numbers I recall seeing for "The Departed" worked out to sales being about 62/38 (or about 1.6:1) in favor of Blu-ray overall. But PE was about 1.3:1 for the first week for HD DVD according to Nielsen.
I suppose our only dispute is how much higher the attach rate is. I say it is north of 20 based on the idea that six months ago it was 28 and HD DVD media sales have been strong considering the installed base. It is doubtful that they have maintained the 28:1 rate, but I think 20:1 is realistic. I have mentioned the stand-alone HD DVD sales several times and I think that supports the 20:1 rate. Why? Because Toshiba has been offering a minimum of 3 free discs with every purchase since January and the CC deal has resulted in some getting 9 free HD DVDs since March. Now assuming those buyers have purchased nothing else the attach rate for those sales varies from a low of 6:1 to a high of 54:1.If you are going to count the free discs that people send in for from Toshiba player purchases then you need to count the 500,000 copies of Talladega Nights for Blu-ray also. I don't believe most count free discs included with players in the attach rates, but I think there is a pretty good chance that the 4 free disc offer from CC was counted in the 998k number given by the HD DVD marketing company (and the Nielsen numbers), since I think those get scanned at the register. I doubt the 5 free disc mail in offer was counted though.

If we just use the 1 million discs sold and the 175k+ players that the HD DVD group claimed at CES in early January then that goes against the 20+ annualized per player average. Those would have had to sell over 1 million discs from January 1st to May 1st just by themselves to have an annualized attach rate of over 20 for that period, so having just 1 million discs sold recently does not support that their annualized attach rate is currently over 20. Put another way, using player-months (a player owned for a month), if HD DVD had an attach rate of over 20 and 1 million discs sold, then they would have to have less than 600k player-months (12 months * 1 million / 20). But 175k players just for 4 months is 700k player-months by itself and then there are all the players sold in 2007 and the player-months for 2006.
So we know that every HD DVD stand-alone sold this year has a minimum attach rate of six films and we know that those that purchased at CC the first day the 9 free films offer have an attach rate of 54 films. We know that The Departed, Happy Feet and perhaps the Planet Earth HD DVDs have outsold their BD counterparts by a factor of at least 4 to 1 when the installed base is taken into account. Using those numbers I think 20:1 is a realistic attach rate right now.I'm not sure how you got from common titles being at least 4:1 to 20:1 (or 20) being a realistic attach rate when you were using under 1 for the Blu-ray annualized attach rate and the exclusive titles on Blu-ray look like they have outsold the exclusive titles on HD DVD.
The numbers I would like, if you can source them, are total Blu-Ray Player sales in NA and total HD DVD Player sales in NA.I wish I had the total Blu-ray player sales also. I'm pretty sure the Blu-ray standalones have sold less than 100k, but haven't seen reliable numbers for those. For HD DVD, 175k+ for all players in NA is what the HD DVD group said at CES for 2006. The NPD numbers for the XBOX360 add-on were 92k for 2006, but I don't know if that is US or NA. Since then Toshiba has claimed 100k+ for standalones in the US and kjack posted that the add-on numbers were 112k through January. Should be higher now, but I don't remember getting specific numbers. One problem is that sometimes things are worded so it is hard to know whether they are talking about just standalones, or including the add-on. Like some recent comments about 250k worldwide from Toshiba (I don't recall which article that was in and would have to find it). Which ones of those do you need links for?

--Darin

I agree that they support that the attach rate is significantly higher on HD DVD than Blu-ray, just not 20:1+ higher. The last numbers I recall seeing for "The Departed" worked out to sales being about 62/38 (or about 1.6:1) in favor of Blu-ray overall. But PE was about 1.3:1 for the first week for HD DVD according to Nielsen.
If you are going to count the free discs that people send in for from Toshiba player purchases then you need to count the 500,000 copies of Talladega Nights for Blu-ray also.

I would count those 500,000 copies of TN. Although I think it is far more likely that the 3/5/9 free HD DVDs offer is killing more sales for HD DVD than TN did for BD. I think the offer for CR in some parts of Europe killed more BD sales than TN did; probably about as many as KK did for HD DVD via the 360 add-on. Those are films the users have so they count in my book. I figure King Kong into my personal attach rate.


I don't believe most count free discs included with players in the attach rates, but I think there is a pretty good chance that the 4 free disc offer from CC was counted in the 998k number given by the HD DVD marketing company (and the Nielsen numbers), since I think those get scanned at the register. I doubt the 5 free disc mail in offer was counted though.

I think it's fairly common knowledge that only sales rung up at the register count so I agree that the 4 CC disks would count while TN, KK, CR (in Europe) and the 3/5 free disc from Toshiba don't count.

If we just use the 1 million discs sold and the 175k+ players that the HD DVD group claimed at CES in early January then that goes against the 20+ annualized per player average. Those would have had to sell over 1 million discs from January 1st to May 1st just by themselves to have an annualized attach rate of over 20 for that period, so having just 1 million discs sold recently does not support that their annualized attach rate is currently over 20. Put another way, using player-months (a player owned for a month), if HD DVD had an attach rate of over 20 and 1 million discs sold, then they would have to have less than 600k player-months (12 months * 1 million / 20). But 175k players just for 4 months is 700k player-months by itself and then there are all the players sold in 2007 and the player-months for 2006.
I'm not sure how you got from common titles being at least 4:1 to 20:1 (or 20) being a realistic attach rate when you were using under 1 for the Blu-ray annualized attach rate and the exclusive titles on Blu-ray look like they have outsold the exclusive titles on HD DVD.

Well I think we can agree that determining an actual attach rate is problematic. You are correct that The Departed alone does not reflect more than a 4 or 5 to one attach rate for HD DVD if we figure the BD attach rate around 1.

Just for arguments sake let’s imagine the average HD DVD fan purchased his player in early March, nabbed The Departed at that time, sent in for the five free disks and has picked up Happy Feet and Planet Earth since then. He’s owned his HD DVD Player for three months now and already has eight disks, which works out to about 2.6 films a month and an annual attach rate over 32. That’s too high and I’m aware of that, but for that user those are what the current numbers work out to. The reality is this guy will buy about 1 movie a month (That’s what he’s done so far) so his real annual attach rate is 12.

I guess what I’m trying to say is that I know that the attach rate is probably less than the 28:1 that Toshiba pimped in December, but I think it’s still in the neighborhood of 20:1 if only because every one I know has an attach rate considerably higher than that. You think it’s significantly less than that and based on the lack of sales for HD DVD at the beginning of the year you might be right. If we ignore the free discs something below 10 is probably close to the annual attach rate for HD DVD, but even 10 is low based on the HD DVD owners I know.

My personal attach rate is sitting at around 30:1 (not including the free KK disc) and I buy fewer HD DVDs than any other HD DVD owner I know. The HD DVD owners I know buy 3 or 4 films a month and the BD owners I know have not purchased a film. What’s you personal experience? What type of anecdotal information can you share? You own both formats and I’m sure you have friends that have either BD, HD DVD or both; how many films do they buy?



I wish I had the total Blu-ray player sales also. I'm pretty sure the Blu-ray standalones have sold less than 100k, but haven't seen reliable numbers for those. For HD DVD, 175k+ for all players in NA is what the HD DVD group said at CES for 2006. The NPD numbers for the XBOX360 add-on were 92k for 2006, but I don't know if that is US or NA. Since then Toshiba has claimed 100k+ for standalones in the US and kjack posted that the add-on numbers were 112k through January. Should be higher now, but I don't remember getting specific numbers. One problem is that sometimes things are worded so it is hard to know whether they are talking about just standalones, or including the add-on. Like some recent comments about 250k worldwide from Toshiba (I don't recall which article that was in and would have to find it). Which ones of those do you need links for?

--Darin

I see you are working with the same numbers I am. I guess I don't really need links unless you can suggest a reliable source for this information. Toshiba spins one way, Sony spins another way and the truth is in the middle. I'm looking for a link to the truth in the middle. If you can find that for me (a third party source for Player sales numbers) you will be my hero for the day.

What’s you personal experience? What type of anecdotal information can you share? You own both formats and I’m sure you have friends that have either BD, HD DVD or both; how many films do they buy? I buy a lot (I'm into this stuff), but I've bought HD DVD players that I passed onto friends (bought 8 in the Continental deal last summer for $367 and passed most on for that to friends) and as far as I remember and have kept up, they don't tend to buy a lot of discs. One probably has less than 10 and another is probably the same. I have another friend who buys a lot (then sells most of them when he is done with them), but he is pretty into this stuff too. I think there are quite a few people renting now who bring the numbers down.

If I was just thinking about people I know I might think the attach rates were pretty high even considering friends who don't buy many discs, but when the HD DVD group says 175k+ players at the end of 2006 and then one million discs around the beginning of May, it just doesn't add up to anything like 20 discs per player annualized for the life of HD DVD from April 18th, 2006 to the beginning of May, 2007, anyway I look at the numbers.
I see you are working with the same numbers I am. I guess I don't really need links unless you can suggest a reliable source for this information. Toshiba spins one way, Sony spins another way and the truth is in the middle. I'm looking for a link to the truth in the middle. If you can find that for me (a third party source for Player sales numbers) you will be my hero for the day.Maybe we need to find somebody who works for NPD and get the numbers out of them. :) The Blu-ray camp doesn't seem to want to give their standalone player numbers (I understand since they probably don't look good) and the HD DVD camp give some numbers at times. The 175k+ for all HD DVD players for end of 2006 was probably pretty close. We're somewhat fortunate that games systems tend to get tracked and reported reasonably well, so at least we should be able to get reasonable sales numbers for the PS3 as we go forward.

Since I can't give you those other numbers for player sales (since I don't know them), I'll give you a link for DVD that you might find interesting (although you may already have it). It is player sales for DVD players from the beginning:

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html

--Darin

Since I can't give you those other numbers for player sales (since I don't know them), I'll give you a link for DVD that you might find interesting (although you may already have it). It is player sales for DVD players from the beginning:

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html

--Darin

Thanks for the link. I guess getting solid hardware numbers for HDM may be difficult. Even getting solid software information seems tough. The numbers put out by Sony and Toshiba seem to reflect about 1,300,000 total BD sales and 1,000,000 total HD DVD sales at the beginning of May. I’m assuming those are NA numbers based on the fact that they seem to be gleaned from US media research sources, but I can’t find where that is specifically stated in either report. For now I’m going to assume that those are NA numbers.

I think we can agree that the NA installed base at the beginning of May was close to 1,400,000 for BD including PS3s and around 250,000 for HD DVD including 360 add-ons. If you can agree on that then we should be able to agree on a since inception attach rate of about 4:1 for HD DVD and just under 1:1 for BD.

I personally believe those numbers favor BD because I really think the actualized attach rates are much higher for HD DVD, but if that is the actual SI attach rate for both formats it does match the ratio of sales for The Departed.

Even that ratio will probably result in HD DVD reaching disc sales parity by year’s end. That’s assuming that Toshiba and Sony are correct in their projections of 2.5 Million HD DVD players and 2.5 million BD players in NA by January 2008.

I wasn't aware the ratio was 1.7:1, a link?

Now, if you recall I wasn't doubting you were right, but that the conclusion could not possibly have come from looking at that graph since it showed HD DVD with a negative slope for a while! Fortune tellers are sometimes right, but their methods are still suspect to me :)

Ha, ha. I hear what you're saying, but that's still the way I counted it.

Here's the link - Nielsen numbers for Q1 2007.
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom042207/

http://img157.imageshack.us/img157/5107/q1np9.png

We know that The Departed, Happy Feet and perhaps the Planet Earth HD DVDs have outsold their BD counterparts by a factor of at least 4 to 1 when the installed base is taken into account.

It's a bit silly of HD DVD supporters to spin the statistics like that, I think. People who spent north of $500 on a stand alone HD DVD player can be expected to have a high attach rate, sure, but there have been so few of those sold that that the only attach rate that will ultimately matter is the attach rate for the cheaper players yet to be sold.

Claiming that HD DVD has outsold BD on the above discs 'when the installed base is taken into account' is a fan boy's argument and nothing more, so long as BD's installed base is so much higher as it is, and BDs are selling at 2:1 in absolute numbers.

The one thing we can probably both agree on is that a *lot* more hi-def players and media would be being sold if there weren't two choices on the market.

It's a bit silly of HD DVD supporters to spin the statistics like that, I think. People who spent north of $500 on a stand alone HD DVD player can be expected to have a high attach rate, sure, but there have been so few of those sold that that the only attach rate that will ultimately matter is the attach rate for the cheaper players yet to be sold.

Claiming that HD DVD has outsold BD on the above discs 'when the installed base is taken into account' is a fan boy's argument and nothing more, so long as BD's installed base is so much higher as it is, and BDs are selling at 2:1 in absolute numbers.

The one thing we can probably both agree on is that a *lot* more hi-def players and media would be being sold if there weren't two choices on the market.

The only reason to so easily discount the smaller install base of HD DVD regarding sales stats is to make the point of larger total disc sales and that does not give a true picture of what's happening. So perhaps you should look in the mirror as one could cast you as everything you are trying to label so called HD fanboys.

It's a bit silly of HD DVD supporters to spin the statistics like that, I think. People who spent north of $500 on a stand alone HD DVD player can be expected to have a high attach rate, sure, but there have been so few of those sold that that the only attach rate that will ultimately matter is the attach rate for the cheaper players yet to be sold.

Claiming that HD DVD has outsold BD on the above discs 'when the installed base is taken into account' is a fan boy's argument and nothing more, so long as BD's installed base is so much higher as it is, and BDs are selling at 2:1 in absolute numbers.

The one thing we can probably both agree on is that a *lot* more hi-def players and media would be being sold if there weren't two choices on the market.

Call it fanboy spin if you wish, but it is also a fact. It should also be noted that HD DVD stand-alones can be had for less than $300. That being the case I think the “north of $500” is not even close to accurate for HD DVD, not any more, but it is still very much true for BD players.

I agree that at these volumes it does not make that much of a difference one way or another. Well it doesn’t matter to me, but there may be those in the BDA that are a little upset that the PS3 hasn’t turned into the format winning Trojan horse that Sony billed it as.

It's a bit silly of HD DVD supporters to spin the statistics like that, I think. People who spent north of $500 on a stand alone HD DVD player can be expected to have a high attach rate, sure, but there have been so few of those sold that that the only attach rate that will ultimately matter is the attach rate for the cheaper players yet to be sold.

Claiming that HD DVD has outsold BD on the above discs 'when the installed base is taken into account' is a fan boy's argument and nothing more, so long as BD's installed base is so much higher as it is, and BDs are selling at 2:1 in absolute numbers.

The one thing we can probably both agree on is that a *lot* more hi-def players and media would be being sold if there weren't two choices on the market.

True, but come on you have to expect it from them :)

there may be those in the BDA that are a little upset that the PS3 hasn’t turned into the format winning Trojan horse that Sony billed it as. :rolleyes: Or maybe there are not. "There may be those" in the BDA that feel the PS3 has met their expectations and are more confident than ever in Blu-ray. "There may be those" that are excited about the huge and growing lead that Blu-ray has over HD-DVD. "There may be those" in the BDA that are excited about the Blu-ray format taking off the clear leader in the computer use department with an even brighter future ahead. Do we want to play this sort of maybe game to justify saying anything we want?

Call it fanboy spin if you wish, but it is also a fact. It should also be noted that HD DVD stand-alones can be had for less than $300. That being the case I think the “north of $500” is not even close to accurate for HD DVD, not any more, but it is still very much true for BD players.




If HD players are so cheap already and price is the only thing that matters then why arent they winning?

If HD players are so cheap already and price is the only thing that matters then why arent they winning?

I don't think it's hit the level yet for mass adoption. I think if someone is interested in buying a dvd player and see's an HD-DVD player for less than $100 more, average people will start buying them.

Ahhhh, but it is only a matter of time before Universal starts releasing on Blu Ray.... Then I'll be releasing this piece of crap HD-A2 into the trash. You know, when I go to hit the open/close button, I don't want a 10 minute debate from the player...

Cmon Universal, this format war is getting old, just get it over with...

:rolleyes: Or maybe there are not. "There may be those" in the BDA that feel the PS3 has met their expectations and are more confident than ever in Blu-ray. "There may be those" that are excited about the huge and growing lead that Blu-ray has over HD-DVD. "There may be those" in the BDA that are excited about the Blu-ray format taking off the clear leader in the computer use department with an even brighter future ahead. Do we want to play this sort of maybe game to justify saying anything we want?

You could be right and I’m more than happy to play the “may be” game. Please show me where I used “may be” to justify saying anything,


If HD players are so cheap already and price is the only thing that matters then why arent they winning?

I don’t recall saying price was all that mattered.

I don’t recall saying price was all that mattered.

Many people do. They say the lower price has to win.

Many people do. They say the lower price has to win.

Give you give some links to such quotes ?

Many people do. They say the lower price has to win.


Many people do say that and ultimately price is a big consideration if either format is going to succeed. I’m not a fanboy, get me a Blu-ray player for less than $300 and I’ll probably bite, less than $200 is a sure thing, but at $600 BD will need to come up with much more compelling content to grab me. The only reason I’m into HD DVD is because I needed a new DVD player and the 360 add-on was essentially the same price as a good upconverting DVD player. Most people won’t pay over $500 for a media player even if they KNOW it will succeed.

And if you do simple math with them, you should see in no time that your claim that "HD DVD has an attach rate north of 20 movies a year" is not supported by those numbers.
Your claim of over 20 for HD DVD while Blu-ray's is under 1 is BS. I'm not sure if you are having trouble comprehending or if you are just claiming that I called those other things BS for some other reason, as I clearly did not call the statement of an annualized rate of 28 back in October BS or the 998k BS. Those could very likely be true, but just use them with simple math and they go against your over 20 claim for now. Pointing out that your numbers are off doesn't mean that those are off and it should be obvious that 28 could be true in September or October of last year without 20 being true today.
And they support what I said.
Your links support what I said, so what do you need for links? That the HD DVD group claimed 175k+ players for 2006 in NA? Do you dispute it and need a link. If not, just do the math and it will support what I said, that your original claim isn't true. What is it you need? Do you need me to do all the simple math, or can you do some to come up with an annualized attach rate for HD DVD that you can backup with numbers?
Easy. People who bought the PS3 got TN early (although that version was the theatrical cut). That was part of the bonus of buying one of the first PS3s.
Interesting that you now only mention the 16:1 figure after you said:
and the next sentence included "say that the BD attach rate will move" (future tense) and the next one said that you were going to be mean with the HD DVD numbers. Going below 20 isn't being mean, its being realistic based on the other claims they have made. You clearly claimed that HD DVD has an attach rate north of 20 movies a year and you can ignore that now if you want to, but that was your claim and then you said you were going to be mean to HD DVD and use a different number.
Nope, because you left out 500k copies of Talladega Nights for Blu-ray (even though I didn't quote the whole section where you did that). If you are going to count King Kong, then you need to count Talledega Nights. Both came in the boxes (I bought both the add-on with KK and the PS3 with TN).

If you want to make the point that HD DVD has a higher attach rate, then you should be able to do it without making bogus claims like over 20 times the attach rate. I figured most of us knew a year ago that HD DVD should have a higher attach rate, just based on the different approaches. I don't think any intelligent person thought that the PS3 would have as high an attach rate as standalones or a device like the add-on that makes sure that other game system owners don't get counted. The number I used long ago as one that would be significant if it happened was 20% for the PS3. Or basically 1/5th the movie attach rate of standalones.

--Darin

Dude are u listening? For three posts now he said he adjusted the FUD and counting a 16:1 attach rate for HD-DVD!! Do you not read? Stop saying 20 to one already. It is not what he said and he is not claiming that.