OK. I was inspired by majortom's "Which Will End This Conflict Most Quickly? (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=812690)" survey. Which one of these scenarios do you think is most likely? If you select other, please describe the scenario that you think is most likely.

The format battle will end in a stalemate. Warner will transition to Total HD and at least one Major will follow their lead in 2008.

Universal players will become more popular as price decreases and more reputable brands appear.

Universal will remain exclusive in 2007
Fox/MGM, Disney/BVHE, Columbia, LGF will remain exclusive in 2007

People on AVS will continue to fight over which format is best.

Beatboy77 will set a record for new threads created in a year.

The invogue thing to do will because neutral and people will laugh when they
hear someone is stuck with one format.

Sooner or later, Universal's shareholders are going to wonder why they are not participating in the larger BD market. I think that company will cave.

However, there's a reason why there is an MSNBC channel. I don't know what influence Microsoft has with NBC Universal.

When 20th goes neutral and releases Star Wars in HD-DVD 2 or more months before Blu-ray.

When 20th goes neutral and releases Star Wars in HD-DVD 2 or more months before Blu-ray.

LOL!

Sooner or later, Universal's shareholders are going to wonder why they are not participating in the larger BD market. I think that company will cave.

However, there's a reason why there is an MSNBC channel. I don't know what influence Microsoft has with NBC Universal.

MS want to sell their stake in MSNBC, but no one will buy it. GE wanted to sell their stake in MSNBC to Microsoft but obviously they didn't want it, so both are stuck with it for the time being.

There are different incentives involved, ones that cannot be directly traced to MS as that would be grounds for an anti-trust law suit.

http://members.aol.com/dhtreptow/criswell.jpg
Criswell predicts.

Blu-ray will continue to enjoy a higher purchase rate, in mid-summer the gap will tighten.

HD-DVD will continue to grow but remain lower in price than BD and in volume, it eventually account for 38 - 40% of the HD market by this time next year.

Universal players will be a big part of the picture in 18 months.

HD-DVD will court some smaller labels, and will eventually snag Disney.

FOX, SONY and UNIVERSAL will not budge in 07.

Neither format dies, both are still here for at least two-and-a-half years, but DVD remains the top seller for at least six to eight, or until all-in-one players are under $175.

The PS3 stays in last place in the game counsel wars for up to two years, and is considered a flop, but Sony sticks with it.

Apple doesn't adopt either format until a duo-format drive is feasible.

The TL-51 materializes for movies and is implemented about 35% of the time , the BD - 200 does too, but isn't utilized commonly for anything but data storage.

I chose when all content is available on both platforms and players are $200. Universals for cheap would be my next choice.

What's the prognosis on dual format drives? Has anyone heard of anyone else getting into the fray along with LG on the multi format blue laser drives?

I think Apple would love to have one drive that handles both but the cases do have two optical bays.

Criswell predicts.

Blu-ray will continue to enjoy a higher purchase rate in mid-summer the gap will tighten.

HD-DVD will continue to grow but remain lower in price than BD and in volume, it eventually account for 38 - 40% of the HD market by this time next year.

...



Hey - who says The Amazing Criswell is inaccurate? :) I'd buy into all those predictions. OK... maybe not the the one about 200GB Blu-ray. I have a feeling the sun will envelop the earth and burn out long before that ever shows up.

HD media will never go mainstream -- and gradually becomes extinct:-(

this one is possible, but I voted for BD

the rest are not realistic.


niche markets don't survive (yes they can be around for a few years but that is not survival)

HD DVD can't be by itself (there is the PS3 making that impossible

dual runs and 200$ players could work (technically) but I don’t think all/most studios will be dual run, and then you still have “do I buy ….” From potential customers and “I will wait to see what happens”

universal players can only be a middle step in the war.

I chose "Other" as a you didn't leave a "neutral" option for people to vote for.

I feel that as soon one High-Def media (regardless of which format) is chosen as the winner, more people will start to get into the High-Def media arena. As more people get into it, we'll start to see more competition between the supporting CE companies bringing down cost of hardware and media will be forced to come down in price as well due to most people being upset that they can pick up Warner/Sony/Paramount/Universal titles for around $20, but other studios charge premium prices.

My thinking is backed up by a recent AP article in my local paper telling people it's better to wait until a winner is chosen before buying into High-Def media.

~Alan

I chose "Other" as a you didn't leave a "neutral" option for people to vote for.

I feel that as soon one High-Def media (regardless of which format) is chosen as the winner, more people will start to get into the High-Def media arena. As more people get into it, we'll start to see more competition between the supporting CE companies bringing down cost of hardware and media will be forced to come down in price as well due to most people being upset that they can pick up Warner/Sony/Paramount/Universal titles for around $20, but other studios charge premium prices.

My thinking is backed up by a recent AP article in my local paper telling people it's better to wait until a winner is chosen before buying into High-Def media.

~Alan
What do you mean by "neutral?" Aren't you saying that one format or the other will eventually win -- but you're not sure which?

LOL!
Don't laugh. It could happen without Fox's support if Lucas decides he wants a HDDVD release.

What do you mean by "neutral?" Aren't you saying that one format or the other will eventually win -- but you're not sure which?

I used to believe that Blu-Ray would be the winner, then I believed HD DVD to be the winner, now I believe that Blu-Ray will win, but "When all studios support Blu-ray and $200 Blu-ray players are available" isn't neccessarily what I wanted to pick as it would also go mainstream if HD DVD were to win. My choice would have been:

When all studios support a single format, $200 players are available, Fox, Disney, Lionsgate, or (Combo) titles can be had for $20 or less.

~Alan

I used to believe that Blu-Ray would be the winner, then I believed HD DVD to be the winner, now I believe that Blu-Ray will win, but "When all studios support Blu-ray and $200 Blu-ray players are available" isn't neccessarily what I wanted to pick as it would also go mainstream if HD DVD were to win. My choice would have been:

When all studios support a single format, $200 players are available, Fox, Disney, Lionsgate, or (Combo) titles can be had for $20 or less.

~Alan
Understand. That alternative may have been a good addition, but I kinda wanted to know if people are leaning in one direction or the other. I'm sure there are lots of people like you who are on the HD roller coaster. A survey like this one is really just a "snap-shot of prevailing opinions."

BTW, I also agree with you on media pricing. I have an HD DVD player but still purchased Babel and Departed on DVD due to pricing.

Understand. That alternative may have been a good addition, but I kinda wanted to know if people are leaning in one direction or the other. I'm sure there are lots of people like you who are on the HD roller coaster. A survey like this one is really just a "snap-shot of prevailing opinions."

Well, to answer your question, I really don't see how HD DVD could win anymore, so I'm leaning toward Blu-Ray (though I won't be getting a PS3 until May).

BTW, I also agree with you on media pricing. I have an HD DVD player but still purchased Babel and Departed on DVD due to pricing.

I bought into DVD in the early days, so I don't mind buying from on-line retailers to get the prices down to what I paid for DVDs back in the early days, but as I've said in other threads, the prices haven't changed much for High-Def media as with the exception of Warner Bros. and Universal has cheaper catalog HD DVD and Blu-Ray titles than they did with DVD, and Paramount has the exact same price for their catalog titles as they do with HD DVD and Blu-Ray... only their day-and date titles has gone up. Fox's, as well as Disney's Blu-Ray pricing, are consistent with their early DVD release pricing, and Sony has actually gone down with their catalog titles, but up with their day-and-date titles... as has Lionsgate back when they were Artisan... or whoever the heck they were at the time...

I personally don't mind paying a few bucks extra if I think it's worth it, but a lot of people have gotten spoiled with DVD pricing, and I don't think they will just accept the current pricing since they weren't around for the early days of DVD.

~Alan

The piggies will continue to grovel at their troughs over who's the biggest, fatest piggie of them all. Mirror, mirror, on the wall, who's the biggest pig of them all.... ;) Whilst all the nearsighted big pigs have their faces buried in their buckets, groveling for dinars, yen, euros, and dollareenies, some enterprising dawgs will introduce a good $299 uni-player.

The results of this poll are quite interesting with almost 100 responses so far. I was surprised that the largest number of people essentially believe (or hope?) that Universal will eventually support HD DVD -- ending the format war.

sdwilly/sparky3887/Scorephile/craiggers14/btg1964/Blindkenshi
Members with nothing to say or 2nd accounts? Its funny when going over older polls and clicking on voter names only to find 0 post history.
I voted 200 buck Uni players.

I meant to make this poll public, but somehow clicked on the wrong check boxes when posting:-(

I meant to make this poll public, but somehow clicked on the wrong check boxes when posting:-(
It is public :) click on the numbers to the right.

I don't know which format will win, or if they will co-exist. What I do know is it took DVD a decade to eclipse VHS. I'd expect at least 7 years minimum for HD media to do the same.

sdwilly/sparky3887/Scorephile/craiggers14/btg1964/Blindkenshi
Members with nothing to say or 2nd accounts? Its funny when going over older polls and clicking on voter names only to find 0 post history.
I voted 200 buck Uni players.

Boy, voter fraud here? :eek: I can't believe it. :rolleyes:

Cheap blu ray players will finish hd-dvd off....a no brainer ;)

Cheap blu ray players will finish hd-dvd off....a no brainer ;)True-dat....now when are we getting them? ;)

True-dat....now when are we getting them? ;)

2 OR 3 years, but I fully expect hd-dud to be finished early next year.....what I have seen of that format so far they could not organise a piss up in a brewery :)

At this point in time I cant see hd-dud managing to turn the tide, if I had bought into the format I would have probably been on prozac by now, lots of lies, false statements and subsequent retractions....its turned into the clown format by its own negligence.

hd-dvd.....No Thanks ;)

ps Just noticed the option I selected is leading the pole at present, what did you go for Guru :rolleyes:

I vote for a $200 universal as the only really viable option for HiDef Discs. Right now, its a niche that's really cool, very pretty, but very expensive. Why should J6P have to buy yet another version their favorite movies when the difference to most people is "meh?" The fact is, until there is a discernable difference (like when 70%+ of the population) has a HD TV, this whole arguement is pretty much moot. My parents aren't going to buy a new TV anytime soon, and they enjoy watching DVDs on their DVD player hooked up with standard RCA cables. There are many people in this country who could really careless about HDTV/HD/BD/etc. They jsut want to enjoy their entertainment with their families. Can't blame them.

Until a univeral player hits that plays all HD formats, upconverts your old stuff, and is cheap, then it's all moot. Now, I thinking about it in more detail, I wish I had voted for extinct or niche. There's just not enough market for Hi Def DVDs out there. And there won't be for a while.

sdwilly/sparky3887/Scorephile/craiggers14/btg1964/Blindkenshi
Members with nothing to say or 2nd accounts? Its funny when going over older polls and clicking on voter names only to find 0 post history.
I voted 200 buck Uni players.

As of now out of the 48 people who voted for option number 1....8 of them have 0 posts and 2 more have 2 or less posts... Hmmmmmmmmm, That's a little over 20% of the votes appear to be slightly dubious at best.

Nice poll but the average consumer still needs to be convinced. There are alot of dvd's and players out there to be replaced.

Beatboy77 will set a record for new threads created in a year.



LOL :D :D

I voted for option one but I don't think it's as simple as that.

To go "mainstream" there needs to be only one format. Universal players or TotalHD will give consumers the impression there's still a war on, mainly because Universal and Weinstien will probably be HD DVD only rather than total HD.

The winning format needs to have mainstream pricing, $200 sounds about right

There needs to be more HDTV's in homes. Although by the time all studio's support Blu-ray they'll be plenty. Also an end to the war will boost sales of players and HDTV's. I bet the people waiting for the war to end are also waiting until then to buy a HDTV

I bet the people waiting for the war to end are also waiting until then to buy a HDTV

I think your giving HD media way too much credit. HDTV is in 25-30% of houses, but the households with HD media too are sub-fractional. I'll throw 3% out their and hopefully someone who truly knows can correct me, but I thought I heard it was smaller still.

People buy HD for other reasons, Sport, Cable, and some think they already have HD through DVD.
When you need a new set, if you know anything at all about HD (that you care about) it's that the broadcast standard is going to switch, so you bite the bullet.