I was checking out eproductwars.com and a couple guys track figures that I talk to over there. According to several people 5,000 Blu-ray discs were sold in the last 24 hours not including refills on stock.

*If* the sales stay constant, or even level off from that amount it would be a significant edition to weekly numbers. Considering the sale is lasting till March 27th we could see an additional say 20,000 to 40,000 additional discs on weekly sales numbers.

I think right now the numbers are around 50,000 discs a week right?

I was checking out eproductwars.com and a couple guys track figures that I talk to over there. According to several people 5,000 Blu-ray discs were sold in the last 24 hours not including refills on stock.

*If* the sales stay constant, or even level off from that amount it would be a significant edition to weekly numbers. Considering the sale is lasting till March 27th we could see an additional say 20,000 to 40,000 additional discs on weekly sales numbers.

I think right now the numbers are around 50,000 discs a week right?

:eek:

<paraphrasing>
Like we always said, if they lower it (the price), we will buy....

Sorry, we are at 72k currently in weekly BD disc sales, according to a couple guys that try to track the numbers based on since inception, and weekly videoscan percentages.

Still, it would be significant and might, just might propel BD to a 3 to 1 sales advantage.

Sorry, we are at 72k currently in weekly BD disc sales, according to a couple guys that try to track the numbers based on since inception, and weekly videoscan percentages.

Still, it would be significant and might, just might propel BD to a 3 to 1 sales advantage.

Yes, I think nataraj projected that BD sales were 72K/week with the latest Neilsen/Videoscan numbers.

There is still some conntroversy whether Amazon's sales numbers are included in these metrics. We'll see in a couple of weeks ...

BTW, if Amazon *is* selling ~5K more BDs daily (because of the sale), they are included in the metrics, and assumuming HD DVD sales increase marginally (e.g., 5K week over week, if memory serves, from the last set of Nataraj numbers), we should see a ~3:1 sales ratio.

3:1 would be a huge milestone, one that I did expect to see for many months.

This will give us a good idea of whether or not Amazon is one of the "online retailers" tracked by the Neilsen/Videoscan numbers.

If Amazon is not one of the e-tailers tracked, I'd expect tracked BD numbers to actually fall as more people are buying from Amazon this week instead of other places. But I question how useful numbers that don't include Amazon would be in the first place.

If Amazon is not one of the e-tailers tracked, I'd expect tracked BD numbers to actually fall as more people are buying from Amazon this week instead of other places. But I question how useful numbers that don't include Amazon would be in the first place.

Maybe, but it's more likely that J6P doesn't really know about the sale at all. Since for the most part they already get their movies at the brick stores.

Guys, this is just a sale. These prices are not going to stay and the sales will drop off. Possibly a large amount since a lot of people are buying titles that they normally would not have. Myself included. I bought several titles that I would not have if it wasn't for the sale.

Guys, this is just a sale. These prices are not going to stay and the sales will drop off. Possibly a large amount since a lot of people are buying titles that they normally would not have. Myself included. I bought several titles that I would not have if it wasn't for the sale.

Expect worldwide Blu Ray software sales to increase noticeably from 23rd March.

World sales mean nothing. Sales in N. America are all I care about. I don't travel abroad that much and never take my player with me when I do. Do you?

trgraphics,

You are exactly right. Sales will drop when the sale ends. so, what are the BD supporters going to say?

Given that people are claiming that this is a major milestone (e.g. Wet1) then what are they going to say when the numbers drop? Are they going to be intellecutally consistent and say that BD is losing ground? No, they will point out the obvious as you did - sale ended and people bought less. It will be amusing to say the least.

World sales mean nothing. Sales in N. America are all I care about. I don't travel abroad that much and never take my player with me when I do. Do you?

Since the BDA makes money from sales worldwide then obviously it's worldwide sales that are important. Don't go HD-DVD on us.

trgraphics,

You are exactly right. Sales will drop when the sale ends. so, what are the BD supporters going to say?

Given that people are claiming that this is a major milestone (e.g. Wet1) then what are they going to say when the numbers drop? Are they going to be intellecutally consistent and say that BD is losing ground? No, they will point out the obvious as you did - sale ended and people bought less. It will be amusing to say the least.

So, basically, what you're saying is that manufacturers should never have sales to increase revenues because they would then have the same sales later that they would have had anyways? :rolleyes:

After this sale is gone, there will be more sales in future, plus the revenue from blockbusters that are incoming and new releases. There will also be sales from people new to Blu-ray.

I'm not going to get personal (and I know most people don't exactly have MBAs), but the rationalizations of the HD-DVD supporters about this sales surge by blu-ray are becoming extremely IR-rational. :cool:

asj,

So, basically, what you're saying is that manufacturers should never have sales to increase revenues because they would then have the same sales later that they would have had anyways?

You need a reality check, and you need to read what people write, and not filter it through some preconcieved notions. I never said anything of the sort. What I said is that, given the sale, you are seeing a spike in sales, which increases the sales ratio that everyone is in love with. However, this is a TEMPORARY spike. When the sale ends, sales rates will go back to where they are, and the sales ratio will drop. Therefore, from a logical point of view, if one sees this increase as significant and important, then you will need to see the drop in the ratio as a significant and important negative trend. However, I doubt you or anything other fanboy will do so. The simple fact is that this sale has no significance in the overall scheme of things, and that is how it should be treated.


After this sale is gone, there will be more sales in future, plus the revenue from blockbusters that are incoming and new releases. There will also be sales from people new to Blu-ray.

Well, duh, but the point is that the "increase" in sales generated by the sale will be gone.

Guys, this is just a sale. These prices are not going to stay and the sales will drop off. Possibly a large amount since a lot of people are buying titles that they normally would not have. Myself included. I bought several titles that I would not have if it wasn't for the sale.

I already said that. As I mentioned the sale will be over on March 27th, but in the meantime it will push the ratio higher given such a high volume. As a portion of total weekly sales for Blu-ray the number is not ingsignificant.

trgraphics,

You are exactly right. Sales will drop when the sale ends. so, what are the BD supporters going to say?

Given that people are claiming that this is a major milestone (e.g. Wet1) then what are they going to say when the numbers drop? Are they going to be intellecutally consistent and say that BD is losing ground? No, they will point out the obvious as you did - sale ended and people bought less. It will be amusing to say the least.

When it ends we are likely to return to the 2 to 1 ratio, but it could be higher. Considering the list of Blu-ray titles coming and the lack of HD-DVD titles, it will not be easy for HD-DVD just to pick up instantly once new titles start coming.

It's quite possible during this sale hardware could be driven. Which will affect the ratio after the sale.

Anyway, there's no reason to believe the ratio of 2 to 1 will be any lower after the sale is over. Blu-ray still has more releases on the way than HD-DVD and more players on the market.

edited

When it ends we are likely to return to the 2 to 1 ratio, but it could be higher. Considering the list of Blu-ray titles coming and the lack of HD-DVD titles, it will not be easy for HD-DVD just to pick up instantly once new titles start coming.

It's quite possible during this sale hardware could be driven. Which will affect the ratio after the sale.

Anyway, there's no reason to believe the ratio of 2 to 1 will be any lower after the sale is over. Blu-ray still has more releases on the way than HD-DVD and more players on the market.

The sale ends on the day that HD DVD's new titles begin releasing. Blu-ray will have competition from that day forward.

Please make up more crap for the sake of it.

I already said that. As I mentioned the sale will be over on March 27th, but in the meantime it will push the ratio higher given such a high volume. As a portion of total weekly sales for Blu-ray the number is not ingsignificant.

Of course a sale such as this will push the numbers higher. Thats why they are doing this. Remember the 2 for 1 sale not so long ago?

Sales are good, no one can dispute that. But, do they mean much in the long run, no ones knows for sure. If they start to lower prices because they see that they can sell a lot more units at normal prices, which I doubt at this early stage, that could be important. Lets hope both sides discover that sooner than later!

Actually George, I was just referring to 3:1 being a major milestone which I didn't expect to see cracked for sometime, regardless of how it happened. Nobody ever said it was going to stay that high, of course sales will drop when this ends. On the other hand, I expect to see more than a couple fence sitters and HD-DVD users adopting BR because of this sale (just based on many posts here on AVS we know this already to be true)... which in turn will continue to advance the 2:1 lead BR currently holds.

What is amusing is your daily rhetoric suggesting the HD war is pointless and neither HD format is of any significance given the sales of SD DVD. You obviously fail to see that every dominate format (such as DVD) had to start somewhere. I know this is going to be hard for you to wrap your brain around, but even DVD didn't come out of the hole selling todays volumes. With just this sale alone we are seeing so many BR discs in the top 100. BR is just beginning its life cycle and sale or no sale, there are several BR discs in the top 20! This is significant! So what's truly amusing is your day in day out "optical HD of either format is insignificant" rhetoric (not to mention your constant bashing despite the fact you don't even own a HD player of either type). ;)

asj,



You need a reality check, and you need to read what people write, and not filter it through some preconcieved notions. I never said anything of the sort. What I said is that, given the sale, you are seeing a spike in sales, which increases the sales ratio that everyone is in love with. However, this is a TEMPORARY spike. When the sale ends, sales rates will go back to where they are, and the sales ratio will drop. Therefore, from a logical point of view, if one sees this increase as significant and important, then you will need to see the drop in the ratio as a significant and important negative trend. However, I doubt you or anything other fanboy will do so. The simple fact is that this sale has no significance in the overall scheme of things, and that is how it should be treated.

Well for me a higher sales ratio is important for a couple reasons even if only temporary.

1) It widens the since inception gap in Blu-rays favor at an accelerated pace.
2) It does speak to retailers even if only temporarily
3) It increases awareness, and may even help drive some hardware sales, which will have an affect after the sale is over
4) Why is there reason to believe that during the HD-DVD draught and the timing of this sale that afterwords some circumstances might not be different? It's entirely possible the sales ratio could be higher than 2:1, but there is no reason to believe it will be any lower. Consider also Casino Royale is likely to be one of the biggest Hi-def sellers for the whole year, that movie alone may alter some of the ratio from here for sometime. After this you're looking at POTC I and II and probably Siderman I and II, both movies that will likely show off Hi-def very well considering the amount of CGI and digital work done in the movies.

The sale ends on the day that HD DVD's new titles begin releasing. Blu-ray will have competition from that day forward.

Please make up more crap for the sake of it.

Competition from a few HD-DVD releases. How are those going to compete with say Casino Royales, which is getting all kinds of high class 5/5 PQ and 5/5 AQ. Or how are they going to compete against POTC I and II and Spiderman I and II in May?

Whatever dude. I was simply saying there's no reason to believe that the ratio will be lower after the sale than it was before. It's a little over 2:1 right now and all I see is upside possibility, there's no reason for it to be any lower than that after the sale.

Blu-ray would still have a higher player advantage then and still the stronger release schedule in terms of number of releases.

asj, You need a reality check,

I need a reality check - lol....The HD-DVD supporters are spinning this extremely positive news into a negative like crazy, and it's I who needs a reality check?

What I said is that, given the sale, you are seeing a spike in sales, which increases the sales ratio that everyone is in love with. However, this is a TEMPORARY spike. When the sale ends, sales rates will go back to where they are, and the sales ratio will drop.

I think it's you who have mis-interpreted what people are saying...

Did anyone ever say this spike would go on FOREVER? That Kingdom would remain at #16 at amazon.com for the next 12 months? It's pretty obvious that the sales spike would go down to normal levels once over, but there are several factors to consider that make this a very significant move by the BDA companies Fox and Sony.

1. The surge in sales WILL be reported as March numbers (that is, it is not a figment in our collective imaginations, as Hd-DVD supporters would like to believe) a time when there is a dearth of releases. As such, it will prop up sales of Blu-ray tremendously for this off-time period and continue the battering of Hd-dvd that began late last year, and which will continue as the big blockbusters like Casino Royale, Cars, PoTC, etc come into play.

2. The sale is likely to have caused people with PS3s who have not yet tried blu-ray to dip their toes in the market, which means it might have caused a enlargement of the active customer base if they like the experience and continue to rent or purchase blu-ray

3. The sale has caused many people to BUY discs which they otherwise would NOT have bought. It is INCREMENTAL revenue that otherwise would not have been generated if there were no sales.

In the end, this is just a sale, of which i'm sure there will be many others in future.

The significant fact is not the sales spike itself, but the STRENGTH of the spike that was generated, where you suddenly get THREE blu-ray titles consistently in the top 20, NINE in the top 50, and TWENTY blu-ray titles in the top 100! This is really amazing given that the format has not been in place yet for even a year and it already is accounting for 20% of the top OVERALL dvd titles in the largest online retailer.

I think this will have a big impact, but I think a good followup would really make the difference

Run your half price sale, then return with regular pricing less $5 - $7

If they go back to their regular pricing, sales will drop off again - maybe more, because people have picked up 2 or 3 months of discs in 1 month

who knows

stormprophet,



1) It widens the since inception gap in Blu-rays favor at an accelerated pace.

True, and I never said differently.



2) It does speak to retailers even if only temporarily

True, but like I said earlier, what it says is if you drop the price, people would buy. Unlike others in a different thread who claim this is BD specific phenomena.

3) It increases awareness, and may even help drive some hardware sales, which will have an affect after the sale is over

Maybe, but that is an open question.

4) Why is there reason to believe that during the HD-DVD draught and the timing of this sale that afterwords some circumstances might not be different? It's entirely possible the sales ratio could be higher than 2:1, but there is no reason to believe it will be any lower.

I dont assume that it will go lower than it was. I assume that it will go back to what it was. This is a temporary spike that doesnt indicate anything fundemental about the struggle.

Wet1

What is amusing is your daily rhetoric suggesting the HD war is pointless and neither HD format is of any significance given the sales of SD DVD. You obviously fail to see that every dominate format (such as DVD) had to start somewhere. I know this is going to be hard for you to wrap your brain around, but even DVD didn't come out of the hole selling todays volumes.

I bought my first DVD player a month after the start of the format. I was there in the beginning, so I know exactly what it was like. So I am aware that every format had to start somewhere.

I also never said that the format war was insignificant because of SD DVD. Again, people need to learn to read. What I have said is that the incessant declaration of the war being over, and that BD is dominating, etc etc etc, IS pointless because the numbers are so low. Because the numbers are low, no studio is going to change position at this point in time. No matter what the BD brain trust here wants to proclaim.

So what's truly amusing is your day in day out "optical HD of either format is insignificant" rhetoric (not to mention your constant bashing despite the fact you don't even own a HD player of either type).

Again, if you read closely, I have not said that it is insignificant, just the declaration of victory. Also, I have never "bashed" anyone, unless you consider correcting sloppy thinking and rhetoric bashing.

asj,

Did anyone ever say this spike would go on FOREVER? That Kingdom would remain at #16 at amazon.com for the next 12 months? It's pretty obvious that the sales spike would go down to normal levels once over, but there are several factors to consider that make this a very significant move by the BDA companies Fox and Sony.

go check some of the other threads

trgraphics,

You are exactly right. Sales will drop when the sale ends. so, what are the BD supporters going to say?

Given that people are claiming that this is a major milestone (e.g. Wet1) then what are they going to say when the numbers drop? Are they going to be intellecutally consistent and say that BD is losing ground? No, they will point out the obvious as you did - sale ended and people bought less. It will be amusing to say the least.

No, in the interim there will have been another 11 BDA press announcements that Blu-Ray won the format war... again... yet.... still...

trgraphics,

You are exactly right. Sales will drop when the sale ends. so, what are the BD supporters going to say?

Given that people are claiming that this is a major milestone (e.g. Wet1) then what are they going to say when the numbers drop? Are they going to be intellecutally consistent and say that BD is losing ground? No, they will point out the obvious as you did - sale ended and people bought less. It will be amusing to say the least.

Even before the sale, BD was ranked in the 300's, as opposed to 700-800 for HD-DVD.

If you think back, BD rankings were at the 1000-2000 mark just a few weeks ago, how long will it be before BD is consistently ranked under 100, without sales.

Jag,

If you think back, BD rankings were at the 1000-2000 mark just a few weeks ago, how long will it be before BD is consistently ranked under 100, without sales.

with the key word being consistently, I would think not until Christmas.

I was checking out eproductwars.com and a couple guys track figures that I talk to over there. According to several people 5,000 Blu-ray discs were sold in the last 24 hours not including refills on stock.

*If* the sales stay constant, or even level off from that amount it would be a significant edition to weekly numbers. Considering the sale is lasting till March 27th we could see an additional say 20,000 to 40,000 additional discs on weekly sales numbers.

I think right now the numbers are around 50,000 discs a week right?

If you look at thedvdwars.com site that has total stock it looks like BD did around 4K unit sales in the last 24 hours and HD DVD did around 500. I selected the 24 hour view and removed HD DVD from the graph to see what BD did and vise versa. it does look like both formats got some minor replishment towards the end, and I too did not factor that in....

I was also trying to track to see if the recent disk sales are impact sales of standalone players and looks like there is no impact at all on the BD side. Perhaps, we will see people picking up the Samsung since the price is pretty attractive and now the disks can be had for cheap as well.....

Great move by the BDA to move older catalog titles!!!!!

World sales mean nothing. Sales in N. America are all I care about. I don't travel abroad that much and never take my player with me when I do. Do you?

The current format war will be played out globally, NA alone will not decide which format is universally adopted by the masses, your statement that world sales mean nothing, shows incredible naivety on your part. :confused:
I would love to hear your explanation for this statement, please enthrall me with your accumen??

As for taking a HD player on trips....I have a Blu Ray equipped laptop by the good old boys from Sony ;)

911,

The current format war will be played out globally, NA alone will not decide which format is universally adopted by the masses, your statement that world sales mean nothing, shows incredible naivety on your part.
I would love to hear your explanation for this statement, please enthrall me with your accumen??

The war may or may not be played out globally. Whether you buy the analogy to game consoles or not, the PS series dominates in Japan. If world sales were a primary determinant, then the Xbox would never have been released. Yet, the Xbox does very nicely in America.

If you look at thedvdwars.com site that has total stock it looks like BD did around 4K unit sales in the last 24 hours and HD DVD did around 500. I selected the 24 hour view and removed HD DVD from the graph to see what BD did and vise versa. it does look like both formats got some minor replishment towards the end, and I too did not factor that in....

I was also trying to track to see if the recent disk sales are impact sales of standalone players and looks like there is no impact at all on the BD side. Perhaps, we will see people picking up the Samsung since the price is pretty attractive and now the disks can be had for cheap as well.....

Great move by the BDA to move older catalog titles!!!!!

Well I can tell you for me I am getting a PS3 for sure with my tax return because of this sale. How could I possibly pass up this many titles I don't even have on DVD on great Blu-ray picture?

So that of course would not be reflected on Amazon as I am likely to get my PS3 from Bestbuy or Sonystyle or something like that.

Well I can tell you for me I am getting a PS3 for sure with my tax return because of this sale. How could I possibly pass up this many titles I don't even have on DVD on great Blu-ray picture?

So that of course would not be reflected on Amazon as I am likely to get my PS3 from Bestbuy or Sonystyle or something like that.

Agreed. The player sales could be a lagging indicator. In other words, this sale could have 1-2 month effect on player sales as well. Hence, why I think this was an excellent idea for the BDA....

Agreed. The player sales could be a lagging indicator. In other words, this sale could have 1-2 month effect on player sales as well. Hence, why I think this was an excellent idea for the BDA....
I have to agree with you guys as well.

I would like to note though that I don't think the "BDA" has anything to do with the Amazon sale. ;)

I have to agree with you guys as well.

I would like to note though that I don't think the "BDA" has anything to do with the Amazon sale. ;)

If you look at the stock in hand graph you'll see that just before this offer Amazon had built up a large stock of BD titles. So, I am guessing that Sony, Fox and Disney together were responsible for this promo. But that is just a guess. In any case, even if Amazon came up with it, it's a good idea.....

The current format war will be played out globally, NA alone will not decide which format is universally adopted by the masses, your statement that world sales mean nothing, shows incredible naivety on your part. :confused:
I would love to hear your explanation for this statement, please enthrall me with your accumen??

As for taking a HD player on trips....I have a Blu Ray equipped laptop by the good old boys from Sony ;)

Perhaps you should read more carefully. I did not make a broad statement about world domination by BR. I said I don't care about anything except N. Amerca. Please read before you make condescending statements.

Some here believe that personal benefit (better film presentation) is more imporatant than how much money the Sony and the BDA can make. I'm in this for me, not them and certainly not you.

Perhaps your hopes for world domination are a bit zealous, to say the least. These are movies we are talking about not religion or politics.

If you look at the stock in hand graph you'll see that just before this offer Amazon had built up a large stock of BD titles. So, I am guessing that Sony, Fox and Disney together were responsible for this promo. But that is just a guess. In any case, even if Amazon came up with it, it's a good idea.....

I think something strange is going on with amazon with their stock replenishing. It used to be you can see when new stock comes in and it was easy to account for that since it was added once a day.

Now if you look at the 24 hour stock chart, there's many many small blips up throughout the day that you can't tell how many they really sold, but you do see that stock in hand jump up quickly and fall quickly in numerical terms. I don't know if this is because amazon is deliberately trying to prevent people from knowing how much sales they do, or whether for some strange anomaly, their stock comes in several times a day and they add them title by title.

In any event, their stock of BD is generally back to hd dvd levels, and many of the top BDs are out of stock. If they can't replenish their stock in time, the sale may last officially till 27th, but they would have nothing to sell, and would start taking the [buy] buttons off those listings one by one like they had to do for Superman Returns so many times before.

I'm curious to see if their stock in hand does go back up again.

I think something strange is going on with amazon with their stock replenishing.I've been wondering the same thing.
If they can't replenish their stock in time, the sale may last officially till 27th, but they would have nothing to sell, and would start taking the [buy] buttons off those listings one by one like they had to do for Superman Returns so many times before.SR on Blu-ray is the only title I can think of that couldn't be ordered when it was out of stock. I wonder if it was some kind of mistake when they put the listing up. For the most part they still let people order things that are out of stock, but just with some indication that they won't ship for a while. They could do that with this sale ("District B13" was that way when I ordered it).

--Darin

If you look at the stock in hand graph you'll see that just before this offer Amazon had built up a large stock of BD titles. So, I am guessing that Sony, Fox and Disney together were responsible for this promo. But that is just a guess. In any case, even if Amazon came up with it, it's a good idea.....

I don't know what the margins on these discs are - but a 50% discount on all movies without studio support wouldn't be practicle.

I see a similar HD DVD sale coming soon !

I don't know what the margins on these discs are - but a 50% discount on all movies without studio support wouldn't be practicle.

I see a similar HD DVD sale coming soon !

It probably doesnt cost amazon more then 13 or 14 dollars at most for their BDs. im thinking probably less. I know some people who sell BDs on ebay and they can buy a meager amount like 2 or 3 of a title and get them for about 17 bucks. Im guessing Amazon gets them significantly less as they obviously order many many more.

World sales mean nothing. Sales in N. America are all I care about. I don't travel abroad that much and never take my player with me when I do. Do you?


Global sales sure do matter to the program and player producers...

Global sales sure do matter to the program and player producers...

Ok, so does the poor sales of the xbox in Japan mean that someone in the states is not going to buy one? How about the higher cost of the PS3 in the EU and it's cut back PS2 support. Does that mean anything to you and me here?

Sure it's important to the companies but is it that important to me. I don't believe it is and even if it is, there isn't a darn thing I can do about it! Believe it or not, there is nothing anyone on this forum can do about it except argue about it. Which, can kill a few hours but thats about all it does.

:eek:

<paraphrasing>
Like we always said, if they lower it (the price), we will buy....

Shocking isn't it? :eek:

Since the BDA makes money from sales worldwide then obviously it's worldwide sales that are important. Don't go HD-DVD on us.
Spin it anyway you want, but US sales are the only ones that matter. If it doesn't catch on here it isn't important. SACD and Robbie Williams are big in Europe and no one cares. :(

Spin it anyway you want, but US sales are the only ones that matter. If it doesn't catch on here it isn't important. SACD and Robbie Williams are big in Europe and no one cares

obviously someone cares if they are big :)

Ok, so does the poor sales of the xbox in Japan mean that someone in the states is not going to buy one?

no, but if HD DVD movies are not selling anywhere else will Universal and other studios say "we are HD DVD only, the rest of the world won't get our movies?" if not and they start releasing BD in Europe, Japan.... what is the chances that they won't do both here?

no, but if HD DVD movies are not selling anywhere else will Universal and other studios say "we are HD DVD only, the rest of the world won't get our movies?" if not and they start releasing BD in Europe, Japan.... what is the chances that they won't do both here?

I guess you could say the same thing about any studio couldn't you. I imported several titles that are BR eclusive here but I don't believe that means Fox or Disney will start releasing here just because of that. That really doesn't make since to me. Different situation since more than likely it is a different distributor over there.

Most every company has a different policy in different regions of the world. This is normal, not unusual.

Different situation since more than likely it is a different distributor over there.



no, Universal is the one distributing there. Actually their HD DVDs have English, French, Spanish, German and Italian for Europe. If they pressed a BD with all that why do you think Universal would say "we only distribute it in Europe, we won't make it available to those millions of BD owners in the US and Canada, we don't want their money"

as for Disney and Fox. It is not the same thing, they did not release in Europe SC did. SC did and paid for the work and owns it.

Perhaps you should read more carefully. I did not make a broad statement about world domination by BR. I said I don't care about anything except N. Amerca. Please read before you make condescending statements.

Some here believe that personal benefit (better film presentation) is more imporatant than how much money the Sony and the BDA can make. I'm in this for me, not them and certainly not you.

Perhaps your hopes for world domination are a bit zealous, to say the least. These are movies we are talking about not religion or politics.

No where did I mention religion or politics in my post, but I do love Sony :p

<snip>
So, I am guessing that Sony, Fox and Disney together were responsible for this promo.
<snip>

Actually I don't think any Disney titles were on sale. Which would make sense, Sony needs to sell the format in general and Fox had that chart with 3:1 or 3.5:1 sales ratio projects for March - which they'd probably like to meet so its not thrown in their face later.

Disney does not appear to be under pressure to bleed off profit for the sake of increasing unit sales.

3:1 would be a huge milestone, one that I did expect to see for many months.

But didn't Fox release that chart back in Janurary showing 3:1 or 3.5:1 sales ratios by the end of March? They certainly appeared to expect to reach that milestone this month.

They probably just didn't expect to have to do a firesale special with Sony to achieve it...

But didn't Fox release that chart back in Janurary showing 3:1 or 3.5:1 sales ratios by the end of March? They certainly appeared to expect to reach that milestone this month.

They probably just didn't expect to have to do a firesale special with Sony to achieve it...

An excellent piece of work by both Sony and Fox, proof that by thinking outside the box, can get the results you want. :D

Not to mention Sony's financial year closes end of March.

Not to mention Sony's financial year closes end of March.

I pretty much doubt sales of so few titles would make a difference to a company that routinely makes billions of dollars (or yen) every quarter. The simplest answer is the most likely - there were no new blu-ray releases this weekend and so theyr decided to continue the surge by marking the titles down slightly.

I pretty much doubt sales of so few titles would make a difference to a company that routinely makes billions of dollars (or yen) every quarter. The simplest answer is the most likely - there were no new blu-ray releases this weekend and so theyr decided to continue the surge by marking the titles down slightly.

They've already lost so much on PS3 distribution this quarter, bleeding off some movie sales profits isn't going to make an impact at this point.

In the case of Fox... I honestly think they really, really want to hit the 3 or 3.5 to 1 ratio they projected earlier. They also have so much money that cutting off some BD profit is unlikely to blip on the radar.


Oh yes, and those couple of sales absolutely make a difference to Sony. Making actual profit on those movies right now has nothing to do with it. They want to move as many units as possible so they can continue with the press releases and interviews where they tout the sales leads. They're purchasing statistics for the marketing department.

They've already lost so much on PS3 distribution this quarter, bleeding off some movie sales profits isn't going to make an impact at this point.

In the case of Fox... I honestly think they really, really want to hit the 3 or 3.5 to 1 ratio they projected earlier. They also have so much money that cutting off some BD profit is unlikely to blip on the radar.


Oh yes, and those couple of sales absolutely make a difference to Sony. Making actual profit on those movies right now has nothing to do with it. They want to move as many units as possible so they can continue with the press releases and interviews where they tout the sales leads. They're purchasing statistics for the marketing department.

GREAT post, and I agree 100% with your thoughts.

But didn't Fox release that chart back in Janurary showing 3:1 or 3.5:1 sales ratios by the end of March? They certainly appeared to expect to reach that milestone this month.

They probably just didn't expect to have to do a firesale special with Sony to achieve it...

Once again, Amazon did the sale. Sony, Fox, the BDA may have been involved but it was Amazon who did the sale.

Also I think it could be possible to get to that ratio even without this sale. Simply because HD-DVD has no new releases this month and Blu-ray is bringing out one of their heaviest hitters in Casino Royale. Which has been made pretty much to show off Blu-ray with an AVC codec and PCM on a 50GB disc. It's already getting 5/5 for both PQ and AQ in most reviews.

They've already lost so much on PS3 distribution this quarter, bleeding off some movie sales profits isn't going to make an impact at this point.I agree, but can't figure out why people seem to think profits on these movies will go down during the sale period. They are likely to go up significantly as a percentage on those titles (although no significantly compared to their total balance sheet). They may cost themselves money in the long run by people expecting sales and not buying at regular prices, but in the short term volumes are likely to way more than make up for lower prices. Especially on things where the incremental cost of making another copy is probably well under $5.

--Darin

This is the first place ever I've seen that mentioned a SALE is a bad thing. LOL

I agree, but can't figure out why people seem to think profits on these movies will go down during the sale period. They are likely to go up significantly as a percentage on those titles (although no significantly compared to their total balance sheet). They may cost themselves money in the long run by people expecting sales and not buying at regular prices, but in the short term volumes are likely to way more than make up for lower prices. Especially on things where the incremental cost of making another copy is probably well under $5.

--Darin

We need to factor in the fact that Amazon by this offer is taking business away from other sources such as DVD Empire:

http://www.dvdempire.com/index.asp?userid=99365459823241&tab_id=61&site_id=68&site_media_id=0

Format:Blu-Ray HD-DVD

Week 40.97% 59.03%

Not sure what the impact on B&M is....

Good point Plaz^

I doubt that Sony/Fox are losing money on this sale.

Manufacturing costs are low enough that you have a lot of room to play with price/demand elasticity.

My estimate is that they only have to see about a 2.4:1 improvement in sales on the titles involved in order to break even, everything else is extra profit.

What we are really seeing is the viability of catalog pricing for nextgen. When you see a title that you already have on DVD, and it streets at $20, you probably won't buy it. When it is $14, you will go for it.

I have bought many DVD's because I happened to see them on sale for $9.99.

My estimate is that they only have to see about a 2.4:1 improvement in sales on the titles involved in order to break even, everything else is extra profit.Just trying some numbers, for the titles that were $28 and now $20, if Fox were sponsoring this and normally sells those discs for $20 to Amazon and now sells them for $16 during the sale, with the discs costing Fox $4 on an incremental basis for each one, then they have a markup that went from $16 to $12. In that case, Fox would only have to see sales go up by about 33% to make the same amount during that period. Amazon would need sales to basically double. The above leaves middlemen out and I'm not sure what channels Amazon gets their discs through, and of course they a just total guesses at ballpark numbers.

My guess is that one affect of the PS3 factor is relatively high elasticity of demand. Might mean more sales like this in the future.

--Darin

Just trying some numbers, for the titles that were $28 and now $20, if Fox were sponsoring this and normally sells those discs for $20 to Amazon and now sells them for $16 during the sale, with the discs costing Fox $4 on an incremental basis for each one, then they have a markup that went from $16 to $12. In that case, Fox would only have to see sales go up by about 33% to make the same amount during that period. Amazon would need sales to basically double. The above leaves middlemen out and I'm not sure what channels Amazon gets their discs through, and of course they a just total guesses at ballpark numbers.

My guess is that one affect of the PS3 factor is relatively high elasticity of demand. Might mean more sales like this in the future.

--Darin

yes, the disposable income of the "majority" PS3 owners (i.e gamers) will definitely make Blu Ray demand more price elastic than the high-end HT /videophiles in general and theat of HD DVD.

I don't know what the margins on these discs are - but a 50% discount on all movies without studio support wouldn't be practicle.

I see a similar HD DVD sale coming soon !


Any idea when this may take place before we get totaly slaughterd in the next Neilson ratings?

If you look at thedvdwars.com site that has total stock it looks like BD did around 4K unit sales in the last 24 hours and HD DVD did around 500. I selected the 24 hour view and removed HD DVD from the graph to see what BD did and vise versa. it does look like both formats got some minor replishment towards the end, and I too did not factor that in....

I was also trying to track to see if the recent disk sales are impact sales of standalone players and looks like there is no impact at all on the BD side. Perhaps, we will see people picking up the Samsung since the price is pretty attractive and now the disks can be had for cheap as well.....

Great move by the BDA to move older catalog titles!!!!!


The sales ratio would be 8:1 for the day if 4K BD vs 500 HD-DVD...