If that is not what's happening then what is? 1080 vs 240 is not 2:1. :confused:I'm sure the 2:1 was for discs sales, which makes a lot of sense because only somebody who didn't understand things would think the ratio should be the same as the player ratios when including the PS3.
And why shouldn't the 360 add-on be considered as a dedicated player? It can't be used for anything else.The add-on isn't considered a standalone because it can't be used without an XBOX360. It is basically half a player with the people needing to have or buy the other half of the player already. But for this discussion the add-on can count as one dedicated player for the math because we pretty much know that people would have bought it specifically for HD disc playback.

--Darin

If that is not what's happening then what is? 1080 vs 240 is not 2:1. 480 vs 240 is 2:1. And why shouldn't the 360 add-on be considered as a dedicated player? It can't be used for anything else.

?

when the reports like NPD say BD SA=HD DVD SA they are not including the add-on or the PS3

Let's assume the numbers are right 1000+80 and 160+80, let's assume movies are 2:1 and are 60K 30K let's assume 80K players ~10k movies (i.e. AR SA BD =AR SA HD DVD=AR AO for that period) we get an AR of 1/8 for SA and AO and 1/20 for PS3
on the other hand if 80k players sold 15k movies that week we get 9/16 for SA on either side and 9/32 for the AO and PS3 9/200

now if someone uses the wrong value (i.e. 240 HD DVD players -> 240 BD players +PS3)
the number of assumed BD players go from 1080 on the BD side to 1240.

and what happens to the 60:30 =2:1 for the PS3? we get 30/1000 =3/100 for that week.

Note: the numbers are there for example I am not implying or assuming that they are correct.

?

when the reports like NPD say BD SA=HD DVD SA they are not including the add-on or the PS3

Let's assume the numbers are right 1000+80 and 160+80, let's assume movies are 2:1 and are 60K 30K let's assume 80K players ~10k movies (i.e. AR SA BD =AR SA HD DVD=AR AO for that period) we get an AR of 1/8 for SA and AO and 1/20 for PS3
on the other hand if 80k players sold 15k movies that week we get 9/16 for SA on either side and 9/32 for the AO and PS3 9/200

now if someone uses the wrong value (i.e. 240 HD DVD players -> 240 BD players +PS3)
the number of assumed BD players go from 1080 on the BD side to 1240.

and what happens to the 60:30 =2:1 for the PS3? we get 30/1000 =3/100 for that week.

Note: the numbers are there for example I am not implying or assuming that they are correct.Oww! That makes my head hurt! Can you rephrase that in english please?

All I got was that you're trying to spin the numers so the Blu-ray attach rates "look good" compared to HD DVD. Are the hardware sales not 5:1 (4.5:1 with the numbers you're using)? Why spin those numbers? I don't think you're going to get Blu-ray attach rate = HD DVD attach rate even with Charlie Eppes' help.

How can 4.5:1 (1080:240) = 2:1? It's not possible.

Blu-ray discs sales are outselling HD DVD discs sales 2:1. That's all that matters.

3-4 months seems quite premature to me, but it's clear from every relevant market indicator that Blu-Ray is the one making gains while HD DVD is stagnating.

It is unfortunate that HD DVD's destiny lies along a different path that Blu-Ray's destiny. That is, HD DVD is destined to lie broken and crushed in a ditch, ground under Blu-Ray's vast heel. The Dark Lord Sonyron has no mercy for those who are foolish enough to oppose him.

I think both sides are spending an inordinate amount of money to get to the winners circle, and it would be a lot more profitable to just try to make one format do well.
This is the best part of the article. "Can't we all just get along?"

sales for BD are easy to answer.
BD had more title releases in the last couple of months.
PS3 gave a couple of coupons out with their console for BD discs.
Amazon 50% sale.

HD DVD will start to finally come back with a decent release schedule starting with the last week of this month.
How well it will do? who knows but if you take in account for the past couple of months with null releases, HD DVD was really doing great considering, and staying in the same ratio spot.
You would think the Feb. results would have changed to 3:1 or higher than with Blu-Ray leading, It didn't and stayed the same.

Oww! That makes my head hurt! Can you rephrase that in english please?

All I got was that you're trying to spin the numers so the Blu-ray attach rates "look good" compared to HD DVD.

no. nothing to o wityh AR
Fifth, I have a hard time believing NPD numbers. If standalones are tied and we add the PS3 to the mix, then how come we are only at 2:1 sales ratio?

I was pointing out his assumption was wrong. His reasoning from what he wrote looks something like

PS3 = 1M, HD DVD=250k =BD stand alone (since you want 5:1) so BD=1.25 M if 250 players on the HD DVD side sold 30k movies a given week and BD sold 60k (2:1) if we assume 250 HD DVD players sold 30k and the same for the 250k BD players we get 30k movies for the 1M PS3. All I did was point out that the 250k HD DVD players are not all stand alone and a majority (at the end of last year it was 60k/175k that were stand alone)

Blu-ray discs sales are outselling HD DVD discs sales 2:1. That's all that matters.

agree

if you take in account for the past couple of months with null releases, HD DVD was really doing great considering, and staying in the same ratio spot.
You would think the Feb. results would have changed to 3:1 or higher than with Blu-Ray leading, It didn't and stayed the same.
Good, no, excellent point

This is the best part of the article. "Can't we all just get along?"For retailers, shelf space is precious. There's no room for the loser.

This is an Evander Holyfield-Mike Tyson boxing match, and BD is Tyson swinging wildly and trying to use all its (back then) considerable muscle to slam Evander (i.e. HD-DVD) with one or two catastrophic punches. As Holyfield (or any good boxer that knows how to work the body and tire his opponent) HD-DVD is slowly chomping away at the long-term financial prospects of BD as a profitable platform, at which point it will be every CE company for itself. This HD-DVD Chinese player announcement is the boxing equivalent of a head butt or well-placed liver shot against BD that, while not as flashy or devastating as a KO, will be looked back at when the fight is over (with either side winning, losing or tying) and analyzed as the turning point of the struggle. A quiet and subtle turning point, but a turning point nevertheless. Can't wait to see those $199 HD-DVD Chinese players on Walmart come Black Friday ('07 but more likely '08) and the masses trampling each other to get their hands on them.

BTW, at this point I'm going to confess that I'm having way more fun watching the war unfold, taking sides and talking about it than watching movies. The players (Sony, Toshiba, Fox, Universal, Microsoft, etc.), their paid mouthpieces and/or motivated supporters (Amir, Parsons, Beatboy, The Bland, Sony's corporate board, Universal home video management, etc.)... I mean, come on! It's a real-life corporate Jery Springer show, except instead of chairs tossed or punches thrown we have amazon.com statistics and word-of-moth from personal experiences at different BB & CC stores. I love being part of this circus, and the best part is that it comes FREE with the purchase of one or two players from either and/or both formats. :) I know this is from days ago, but I had to revisit it.

Wondrous. :)

.... the only thing out of place is that you apparently don't actually have to actually purchase one format or another to participate. :D

I actually find this a very unique business and marketing strategy spectacle :p

I thought the most significant part of the article was the paramount analyst projecting the end of 2006 player stats.

If he expects 1.2 million HD DVD standalone and 500,000 Xbox 360 units for a total of 1.7 million HD DVD players bought for HD movie playback that would be a tough bunch of owners for a studio to ignore.

That would be more than 3 times his Blu-ray standalone projection of 500,000 dedicated standalone players.

Thats a 3:1 HD DVD advantage in dedicated players. Thats a tough obstacle for 5 million or less PS3's to overcome and makes everything dependent on the PS3 and its attach rates and penetration and use as a Blu-ray player.

If the PS3 fails to meet that level of sales, and it might if its gaming console issues continue, then Blu-ray might have serious issues. A lot of Blu-ray hopes depend on the PS3 as even this pro Blu-ray analyst seems to thing that HD DVD standalone sales will outplace the Blu-ray standalone sales.

If he expects 1.2 million HD DVD standalone and 500,000 Xbox 360 units for a total of 1.7 million HD DVD players bought for HD movie playback that would be a tough bunch of owners for a studio to ignore.I agree. But they better pick up the pace if they want to have 1.2 million standalones sold by the end of this year. My guess is that more than half the HD DVD players out there are XBOX360s with add-ons. The 175k+ from the HD DVD group along with the 92k for the add-on from NPD (IIRC) would support less than 100k total standalone HD DVD players sold in 2006.

Europe could also come into play here as it looks like standalone player sales have been pretty dismal on both sides in Europe and we'll get to see how the PS3 starts out in less than 2 weeks. Looks like way less ground to make up than Blu-ray had in the US at the time of the PS3 launch.

--Darin

For retailers, shelf space is precious. There's no room for the loser.

Stores seem to find plenty of space for Xbox, Xbox360, PS2, PS3, NGC, Wii, PSP, GBA, DS. For years, some places carried SACD and DVDA side by side, and those sales were pitiful. I think if anything they would be happy to have titles on the shelf that would sell customers on the format(s).

Stores seem to find plenty of space for Xbox, Xbox360, PS2, PS3, NGC, Wii, PSP, GBA, DS. For years, some places carried SACD and DVDA side by side, and those sales were pitiful. I think if anything they would be happy to have titles on the shelf that would sell customers on the format(s).


And they have room for widescreen and fullscreen versions of movies. Mac and PC software. Ipod, zune and other MP3 players. Really, the "retail space" argument is the most specious of the lot. It simply doesn't withstand scrutiny.

Shelf space goes to what sells and makes money.

If both formats sell and make money space will be found and something else will go away.

Retailers would prefer one format but they'll stock both formats if they are profitable.

Blu-ray aims to replace DVD within three years (http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSL1533248620070315)

The Blu-ray disc association said on Thursday it aimed to become replace the DVD media storage format within three years.

"Within three years it will just be Blu-ray," Frank Simonis, the Blu-ray Disc Association European chairman said at CeBIT, the world's biggest technology trade show.So, according to BDA 3-4 months to blow away HD DVD, and within 3 years, it will have blown away DVD.

I hear in 4 years all blu-ray supporters on this board will be given governor positions after Sony takes control of planet earth. It has to be true - It was in a press release... :p

Blu-ray aims to replace DVD within three years (http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSL1533248620070315)

So, according to BDA 3-4 months to blow away HD DVD, and within 3 years, it will have blown away DVD.

I hear in 4 years all blu-ray supporters on this board will be given governor positions after Sony takes control of planet earth. It has to be true - It was in a press release... :p

Gotta give the BDA props for having goals :p . You can't achieve things in life without goals and a plan. Oh yah....what are the HD-DVD plans again?? "Let's play nicely and co-exist" :rolleyes:

Blu-ray aims to replace DVD within three years (http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSL1533248620070315)

So, according to BDA 3-4 months to blow away HD DVD, and within 3 years, it will have blown away DVD.

I hear in 4 years all blu-ray supporters on this board will be given governor positions after Sony takes control of planet earth. It has to be true - It was in a press release... :p

The BDA also announced that mikemorel and all other sarcastic naysayers would be "given the strongly advised opportunity" to visit re-education camps to learn about how blissful our lives will be once blu-ray conquers all, cures cancer, and powers a manned mission to mars.

The BDA also announced that mikemorel and all other sarcastic naysayers would be "given the strongly advised opportunity" to visit re-education camps to learn about how blissful our lives will be once blu-ray conquers all, cures cancer, and powers a manned mission to mars.From: http://www.forbes.com/technology/2007/03/15/sony-playstation-cancer-tech-media-cx_rr_0315folding.html

Sony’s making a big deal Thursday of the fact that all PlayStation 3 owners can now participate in Stanford University’s “Folding@Home," a distributed computing effort where computers around the world lend their processing power to assist in studying protein folding to help find cures for Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s and cancer.

It's like the famous distributed computing effort “SETI@Home," which searches through astronomical data for signals from alien civilizations. Computers and PS3’s that would otherwise sit idle can join Folding@Home, call up a chunk of data and get to work--they even display far-out screen savers that show animated protein strands. Distributed computing for a noble cause looks cool and even potentially helps move ahead some important medical research.

It looks like PS3's February 2007 NPD numbers might be....*awful.

127,327 units


*That's the rumor at least.

..........err what happens if it gets to a point that HD A2s sell more than PS3s?



That NPD number for the PS3 looks awful small. Link?

..........err what happens if it gets to a point that HD A2s sell more than PS3s?



That NPD number for the PS3 looks awful small. Link?


I just clicked back to edit my post that this is the rumor. EDIT: everyone's still waiting for confirmation. I should've made that more clear- sorry.

OK, here's some confirmation:

NPD: Nintendo Rules February Sales (http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3158048)


NPD: Nintendo Rules February Sales
Nintendo rules home and handheld, 360 and PS3 trail.
By Luke Smith, 03/15/2007
NPD Hardware: February's NPD hardware figures continue to show Nintendo's Wii selling well ahead of the other Gen Now consoles, PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360. In February, Nintendo's $249.99 Wii sold 335k units according to the NPD group. Microsoft's Xbox 360 sold 228k units at roughly $389 per system sold across the two SKUs. Sony's PlayStation 3 sold 127k units at roughly $598 per system sold. Despite being available for ages, Sony's PlayStation 2 continues to outsell every home console not named the Nintendo Wii. In February the system sold 295k units at a per unit price of $129.80.

While Sony responded to last month's NPD figures by saying they were closing the gap on the Nintendo DS, they will not be able to say that this month. The then-supply constrained DS is available at retail and the handheld sales figures show that. The DS sold 485k units in February to Sony PSP's 176k units.

Hardware Sales Reactions: Sony: "According to NPD data, February 2007 showed a 67% increase in retail dollars generated year-over-year for SCEA in the US with total sales of $377 million. With this increase, the PlayStation brand remained the number-one revenue driver for the month in the industry owning 38.5% of total sales. On the retail front, SCEA continues to work hard to stabilize supply for PS3 and PS2 across North America. A short month was reflected in PS3 and PSP sales figures over January, while PS2 continues to perform above expectations, down just 4.3% from last year. PS2 dominated software sales for the industry, generating $111 million in revenue.

Coming off the heels of GDC, there is much enthusiasm for upcoming games and services for PS3. With the announcement of 'HOME' and 'LittleBigPlanet' and the recent release of the much-anticipated 'MotorStorm,' consumer enthusiasm for PS3 continues to build. Excitement for PS2 also remains incredibility strong, helped by the release of 'God of War II' earlier this week, which sold-in more than 1 million units at retail. It was also announced recently that the 'God of War' franchise would soon be heading to PSP."

NPD Software: Real Time Worlds' Crackdown led the way in February, despite releasing on the 20th day of the month. Four other Xbox 360 titles charted in the top ten (list below).

Top Ten Software for February 2007:
# 360 Crackdown 427K
# Wii Play w/ Remote 371K
# NDS Diddy Kong Racing 262K
# WII Legend of Zelda: The Twilight Princess 130K
# PS2 Guitar Hero 2 w/Guitar 130K
# 360 Gears of War 119K
# 360 Major League Baseball 2K7 113K
# 360 Lost Planet: Extreme Condition 111K
# WII Wario Ware Smooth Moves 109K
# 360 NBA Street Homecourt 102k

Software Tidbits:
# Viva Pinata 18k
# Hannah Montana DS 30k
# Resistance: Fall of Man 70k
# Virtua Fighter 5 53k

Data courtesy of the NPD Group

OK, I don't track game machine sales. What's the monthly sales curve look like for the PS3? Are we seeing any trend that would affect the rate of BD disk sales? Is the PS3 surge growing, peaking, leveling or receding? Three out of four of these scenarios are bad for BD.

500k in December, 250k in January, 127k in February.

Well, February sales aren’t traditionally strong for consoles, but 127K seems exceptionally weak. Here are January’s NPD #’s for comparison:

Nintendo Wii 436,000
Xbox 360 294,000
PS3 244,000

Nintendo Wii Tops PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 in January (Update1) (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601204&sid=aeP6KYaQ4o_k&refer=technology):)


Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Nintendo Co.'s Wii outsold Sony Corp.'s PlayStation 3 and Microsoft Corp.'s Xbox 360 during January as consumers bought 436,000 of the video-game consoles.

Microsoft Corp.'s Xbox 360 was the second-most purchased machine with sales of 294,000, followed by PlayStation 3 with 244,000, Credit Suisse analyst Heath
Terry said today in a report, citing NPD Group Inc. data.

Wii is outselling PlayStation 3 by almost 2-to-1, the report said. Consumers have been attracted to Wii's price, at half the cost of the least-expensive PlayStation 3, and a wireless controller that can be swung like a bat or tennis racquet during play.

Both Wii and PlayStation 3 were introduced in November as competitors to the Xbox 360, which was released in 2005. Wii's $250 price tag compares to $499 and $599 for the PlayStation 3. The Xbox 360 sells for $299 and $399.

Wii sales fell from 604,000 units in December, the smallest drop of the three consoles, Terry wrote. The Xbox 360 had the biggest decline, dropping from 1.13 million units while PlayStation 3 sales declined from 491,000.

PlayStation 3 includes a Blu-ray DVD player that allows users to watch movies in a high-definition format, in addition to playing games. Production snags with the player created supply problems during the holiday shopping season, forcing Sony to concede market share to Wii.


If you’ve read any of my other posts on this subject, it’s my strong feeling that the PS3 is too expensive to sell well. After the initial launch furor, the trend seems to support that notion IMO; but we’ll have to wait a few more months before any solid conclusions can be drawn.

Worldwide, I expect Sony will get a bump later this month with the Euro launch. This basic question keeps rearing it’s ugly head though: does the PS3 have legs? At it’s current price I don’t think so. If it doesn’t in fact, aggressive pricing by Toshiba will make this very interesting (assuming that some Bluray manufacturer doesn’t intro comparatively fire sell pricing).

Just two days ago, an analyst predicted PS3 sales would stabilize at 200,000 in February. 127,000 is weak, and the month-over-month declines for a new product have got to be troubling to Sony.

at the rate the ps3 is selling, it will take a lot longer than 3 years to replace SD DVD. :)

at the rate the ps3 is selling, it will take a lot longer than 3 years to replace SD DVD. :)
lol

..........err what happens if it gets to a point that HD A2s sell more than PS3s?

That NPD number for the PS3 looks awful small. Link?That would be a big deal. I would be surprised if Toshiba sold more than about 20k players in February counting both the HD-A2 and the HD-XA2 though.

--Darin

If the PS3 fails, Blu-ray has a lot of problems.

The PS3 is the only mass market Blu-ray available and the only chance to bring Blu-ray mainstream.

If those PS3 sales trends continue, even for months ... that's a serious issue for Sony, mostly from a game development perspective.

HD DVD just placed two full page ads in the new April issue of Popular Mechanics.

That's among its first mainstream non enthusiast or trade publications ad placements.

If the PS3 fails, Blu-ray has a lot of problems.

The PS3 is the only mass market Blu-ray available and the only chance to bring Blu-ray mainstream.

If those PS3 sales trends continue, even for months ... that's a serious issue for Sony, mostly from a game development perspective.

I don't see the PS3 "failing", however everything seems to indicate that it will end up in 3rd place, behind X360 and Wii. The question is, will the PS3 have enough players on the market, considering its future BR attach rate, to make it the new video standard over SD DVD ? Personally, I doubt it, but then again, I don't have a crystal ball...

That would be a big deal. I would be surprised if Toshiba sold more than about 20k players in February counting both the HD-A2 and the HD-XA2 though.

--Darin

Do we have any source for HD DVD add-ons numbers ? I'm really curious to see where HD DVD add-ons + XA2 + A2 stand compared to PS3.

Do we have any source for HD DVD add-ons numbers ? I'm really curious to see where HD DVD add-ons + XA2 + A2 stand compared to PS3.

According to: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9915749&highlight=dec+jan+feb+360#post9915749

"112K have sold through the end of January:

Nov: 42K
Dec: 50K
Jan: 20K

..."

If the PS3 fails, Blu-ray has a lot of problems.

The PS3 is the only mass market Blu-ray available and the only chance to bring Blu-ray mainstream.

If those PS3 sales trends continue, even for months ... that's a serious issue for Sony, mostly from a game development perspective.

Exactly. It already costs more for game developers to write for PS3 than for Wii, Xbox 360, or even PS2.

Being #3 (actually, #4 if you include PS2) does not exactly attract game developers. They are more likely to develop first for the more popular and less expensive (to develop) formats and then only later to port from those formats to the PS3. That scenario would not give PS3 exclusive game advantage that it needs to dominate. I think that the PS3 will end up more useful as a movie machine than as a game box, if the developers shy away from it.

Exactly. It already costs more for game developers to write for PS3 than for Wii, Xbox 360, or even PS2.

Being #3 (actually, #4 if you include PS2) does not exactly attract game developers. They are more likely to develop first for the more popular and less expensive (to develop) formats and then only later to port from those formats to the PS3. That scenario would not give PS3 exclusive game advantage that it needs to dominate. I think that the PS3 will end up more useful as a movie machine than as a game box, if the developers shy away from it.

Makes it sound like a MacIntosh. Only the most popular games go from the PC to the Mac. And that can take a year or two.

webphilosopher - or maybe they will find a niche where people will pay for the extra/better content games on PS3, another way of saying maybe 360 will hit the wall and start to look weak by comparison. That will happen at some point, but if that point is 4 years away, then there will be an Xbox720 and it hardly matters; sony's long-term strategy that worked well for the PS2 will have run aground. If that point is a year from now, then maybe they can pull it out.

webphilosopher - or maybe they will find a niche where people will pay for the extra/better content games on PS3, another way of saying maybe 360 will hit the wall and start to look weak by comparison. That will happen at some point, but if that point is 4 years away, then there will be an Xbox720 and it hardly matters; sony's long-term strategy that worked well for the PS2 will have run aground. If that point is a year from now, then maybe they can pull it out.

I think the trick is to make a console a little bit ahead of its time and not too ahead of its time (in terms of both cost and complexity for developers). If the long-term is too long, it is hard to recoup losses and make money before the competition has a chance to upgrade and innovate and compete on price. I find it interesting that Blu-ray intends to displace DVD within three years, but it is unlikely that the PS3 (a Blu-ray machine) will displace the PS2 (a DVD machine) within that period of time.

So how can these recent console sales narrow the widening gap between Blu-ray and HD DVD? I see nothing like that.

So how can these recent console sales narrow the widening gap between Blu-ray and HD DVD? I see nothing like that.

The more PS3's sold the bigger the potential population of BD customers (however small it is compared to the total that bought the system) will be. Since PS3 isn't selling as many units as expected the better a chance the fewer-but-sold-to-people-that-definitely-buy-movies 360 add-ons and Toshiba decks will show a better attach ratio with software. The drought of new HD-DVD releases these past few weeks makes things hard to quantify, but starting March 27th HD-DVD gets its second wind and a chance to get the software equation back into a more even footing (even though BD still has a ridiculously huge advantage that should be burying HD-DVD in a 10-1 ratio disadvantage... but isn't).

Toshiba's stand-alones are getting a price reduction starting April 1st. Between the 360 add-on and the XA2 (not including the G1 decks floating around retail channels) HD-DVD has hardware priced between $199 and $749 to entince potential customers of all income brackets. And all these choices come with free software: "King Kong" for the add-on and five free movies with the Tosh decks. Except for discounted Philips and Samsuning G1 units (which are still in the mid-500's) the cheapest entry point for Blu-ray remains the $499 20GB PS3; realistically though (given the shortage of 20GB units reported pretty much everywhere) $599 for a 60GB PS3 is the most accesible entry point for a potential BD supporter. Combine that with the upcoming timed exclusives ("Matrix Ultimate Collection"), exclusive movies ("Children of Men") and better-than-BD shared titles ("Happy Feet" with TrueHD Dolby) and HD-DVD has its best chance in months to either become competitive or match BD in sales statistics.

Unlike BD's stated goal to replace DVD the HD-DVD folks want to establish their format as an alternative (not a replacement) to DVD and then gradually transition SD DVD to HD-DVD. The clock is ticking for both formats, but BD's exorbitant expense to just be competitive in a niche' format is making the ticks from its clock a lot louder than HD-DVD's.

The more PS3's sold the bigger the potential population of BD customers (however small it is compared to the total that bought the system) will be. Since PS3 isn't selling as many units as expected the better a chance the fewer-but-sold-to-people-that-definitely-buy-movies 360 add-ons and Toshiba decks will show a better attach ratio with software. The drought of new HD-DVD releases these past few weeks makes things hard to quantify, but starting March 27th HD-DVD gets its second wind and a chance to get the software equation back into a more even footing (even though BD still has a ridiculously huge advantage that should be burying HD-DVD in a 10-1 ratio disadvantage... but isn't).

Toshiba's stand-alones are getting a price reduction starting April 1st. Between the 360 add-on and the XA2 (not including the G1 decks floating around retail channels) HD-DVD has hardware priced between $199 and $749 to entince potential customers of all income brackets. And all these choices come with free software: "King Kong" for the add-on and five free movies with the Tosh decks. Except for discounted Philips and Samsuning G1 units (which are still in the mid-500's) the cheapest entry point for Blu-ray remains the $499 20GB PS3; realistically though (given the shortage of 20GB units reported pretty much everywhere) $599 for a 60GB PS3 is the most accesible entry point for a potential BD supporter. Combine that with the upcoming timed exclusives ("Matrix Ultimate Collection"), exclusive movies ("Children of Men") and better-than-BD shared titles ("Happy Feet" with TrueHD Dolby) and HD-DVD has its best chance in months to either become competitive or match BD in sales statistics.

Unlike BD's stated goal to replace DVD the HD-DVD folks want to establish their format as an alternative (not a replacement) to DVD and then gradually transition SD DVD to HD-DVD. The clock is ticking for both formats, but BD's exorbitant expense to just be competitive in a niche' format is making the ticks from its clock a lot louder than HD-DVD's.I bet price cut won't move many units. Look at the sales of the cheap HD DVD add-on for Xbox. It's order of magnitude lower than the PS3 sales.