From This Week In Consumer Electronics: http://www.twice.com/article/CA6422671.html

BTW, how come Andy and Vito Mandato get quoted all over this story but there's not a single quote/statement from an HD-DVD supporter? I hate it when the deck is stacked like this againt HD-DVD even if the points made by these guys are strong. You know HD-DVD is screwed in the war for media/PR when a Paramount guy is your only backer! :(

A consultant to a top Hollywood studio said at the DisplaySearch Flat-Panel Display Conference, held here Wednesday, that the format war in high-definition discs could be determined in the next three or four months if backers of the Blu-ray Disc camp get behind the planned imminent releases of last year’s top box-office titles.

Vito Mandato, Paramount Home Entertainment executive consultant, pointed out what Sony and other Blu-ray backers have said since International CES, that the Blu-ray format is about to have the lion’s share of the top box office earners from last year released on Blu-ray Disc. That could be enough to ignite a chain reaction of demand that will settle the format war for good, he said.

Blu-ray will enjoy the benefit of the imminent release of some of the top box office earning titles that comprised $1.4 billion of U.S. box office revenue last year, Mandato said.

“When you recognize the total box office for all of last year was $9.4 billion, people are going to want those,” Mandato pointed out. “If the Blu-ray camp can use the power of these and some of the other new releases over the next three or four months, they could win it all. The reason being — people listen to the opinions of early adopters. If the early adopters say, ‘This is my only choice because I’ve got to have these movies,’ that could sway opinion, generate momentum and Blu-ray could win.”

But he warned, “There is a chance that the Blu-ray camp may not be effective in convincing enough consumers that this is a killer app and it has to be paid attention to. We’ll know soon.”

Mandato said Paramount is currently supporting both camps because “we feel strongly that it is important to let the consumer make the decision, give them the ability to choose from a variety of options and pick the one that suits them. It’s our goal to provide them with the absolute best movie experience possible with Paramount movies.”

“On the selfish side, we are putting ourselves in the best position to make the most money for the studio,” he continued. “So why not pick a winner now? Well, there are risks involved in doing that, if you recall the last [presidential] election. Quite honestly, there is some evidence to suggest now that we may not be ready to pick a winner.”

Through Feb. 25, Mandato said, 694,000 Blu-ray movies were sold compared with 655,000 HD DVD movies.

Alternately, he added that the end of 2007 “could result in a universe of HD movie buyers that are dead even” with 3.4 million households buying movies monthly. This includes sales of HD disc players, and gaming consoles.

HD DVD’s biggest advantage is low price. On the Blu-ray side, their biggest advantage is the best movies, said Mandato.

He added that “brand equity will play an advantage with the early majority buyers, which are much less tech savvy than early adopters,” said Mandato.

He said he expects studios to step up and start promoting their HD disc releases more aggressively.

“The studios have not done a good job coordinating the messaging,” said Mandato. “For the Blu-ray opportunities with blockbuster movie releases over the next three or four months, the first of those will be “Casino Royale,” and we have already begun to see the campaign. In the magazine ad, there is a separate fractional page that calls out specifically that it is available exclusively on Blu-ray. If that hard-hitting messaging starts to appear consistently in all of the exclusive hit titles exclusive to Blu-ray, that will start to move the needle.”

Concerning the threat of the rapidly developing video download market, Andy Parsons, Blu-ray Disc Association U.S. Promotions Committee chairman and Pioneer advanced product development senior VP, said bandwidth remains insufficient to deliver a quality feature-length HD video in a reasonable amount of time.

“When you accept the premise that it takes 25 to 30GBs minimum to download a really high quality, high-definition movie, and you have a 4 to 5Mbps pipe running into your home, being able to download that much data in less than 10 hours is pretty difficult,” Parsons said.

Parsons called the gating issue to the acceptance of high-definition downloading “the Target factor,” explaining that if a user can drive to Target, purchase the movie, drive home, watch the movie and go to bed, in less time than it takes to takes to download that same movie over the Internet, the online sale is not very viable.

Parsons also explained that pay per view movies have been available for a number of years, yet they have never slowed the rate of DVD sales and rentals.

“I don’t see it as an either-or proposition,” Parsons said. “Downloads are there. I think they are another slice of the pie, but I don’t see that as taking over the market any time soon.”

As for the prospects of combo format players sustaining the format war, Mark Waring, a Sanyo Technology Center director and spokesman for the HD DVD Promoters Group, said pricing will make it very difficult to maintain a sustainable business model for hybrid players.

Low player pricing for HD DVD players, and the promise of even lower prices once Chinese and Taiwanese OEMs begin producing HD DVD players, is a major weapon in the battle for HD DVD supremacy, he pointed out.

“I don’t think [a dual-format player] is a good vehicle for new entrants, period,” Waring said. “There is a very brutal price point expectation for consumers. Who paid more than $100 for their last DVD player? The bar is getting lower every month. There is only one example of a combo-format player to date and it is well over $1,000. I think that is a real limitation, just in terms of the price elasticity of that product.”

“All of the presentations are operating on the premise that there will be a single format when this is all done,” said Pioneer’s Parsons. “Everybody is waiting for the format war to end, so that the business can take off under a single format. A dual-format player does not really solve the issues of why we have a format war in the first place. In fact, you can even provide a false sense of security for consumers if they go out and buy a dual-format player and then stacks of both discs. When one format goes away and the dual-format player breaks, then that consumer is stuck with a stack of unplayable discs.”

“It’s not a panacea. It doesn’t solve the problem,” Parsons continued. He pointed out that Pioneer’s introduction of a dual-format DVD-Audio/SACD player years ago, did not end that format war, either.

“The player, at the tail end of the entire process of getting movies distributed to consumers, isn’t where the problem is,” said Parsons. “It’s about distributing content on a single format because that is the most efficient way to get it done.”

Similarly, Warner Brothers’ proposed Total HD dual-format flipper disc is not likely to solve the problem, said Paramount’s Mandato, adding that Paramount is not likely to adopt the hybrid disc “until the capacity issue is solved.”

“The capacity issue they laid out at CES was the equivalent of a single-layer on both formats,” said Mandato. “The guiding rule we use for going to dual-layer on Blu-ray is that when the running time for a movie is beyond 105 or 110 minutes, it is pretty much pushing the envelope to needing a BD-50 disc. The average running time for our last 20 or so movies was 124 minutes. So, unless a flipper disc from Warner can accommodate that, I don’t think there will be that much interest.”

As for the possibility of both formats co-existing in the market, Mandato pointed to the recent release of “The Departed” in six different disc format SKUs, saying, “Nobody wants that. The studios don’t want it because it costs money to make all of those different SKUs, ship them and inventory them. The retailers really don’t want that, and we’ve all heard an earful from them.”

“The fact is, the movie business is just not like the video game business,” said Mandato. “Somehow the video game business has been able to peacefully coexist with multiple formats, but part of the reason is there is a lot of cross-ownership of multiple platforms. It’s hard to explain why it’s not going to be a successful model, but it’s not going to be successful in the movie business. It’s too expensive. It eats up money that we could all turn to profit. We are very motivated to get past this. The hardware manufacturers are as well. I think both sides are spending an inordinate amount of money to get to the winners circle, and it would be a lot more profitable to just try to make one format do well.”

AVS prefers HD DVD to Blu-ray at 2:1. If early adapters have a say, you'd think it's HD DVD's war to lose.

Thats a good post, the sad thing is this thread will go down the tubes pretty quickly, you can bank on the usual crap....PS3....dvd....Wii etc etc.

Iwish to **** we could discuss a thread and keep on topic for a change, theres plenty of food for thought in that article........

I don't recall reading anything from Mandato of Paramount, but in this one I think he sounded pretty level headed. I thought this from him was good:
So why not pick a winner now? Well, there are risks involved in doing that, if you recall the last [presidential] election. Quite honestly, there is some evidence to suggest now that we may not be ready to pick a winner.Seems reasonable, but also suggests along with some of his other comments that if we get to a point that they feel a winner is pretty clear, they are likely to start pushing for just that one format. Holding back on a lot of their best stuff could put them in a position to help decide this thing later on and their current strategy of not going gung ho could look pretty good in retrospect.

--Darin

Good find, interesting article.

I think this is the first admission from a neutral party that 2 formats cannot and will not exist. And they're all looking forward to the day when 1 wins.

"Bluray is going to win, but we're not going to stop making HDDVDs."

eight,

It is also a pretty clear statement that Paramount doesnt think the struggle is over yet, in spite of all the pronouncements of the BD faithful.

Slim,

where in the world did you get that?

I don't know how much pull this Mandato guy has at Paramount but his comments about the studios' cool reception toward Warner's Total HD disc are the first official words from an insider that Paramount might not release in that format (something that most of us were assuming based on the studio's pathetic release schedule as of late).

Similarly, Warner Brothers’ proposed Total HD dual-format flipper disc is not likely to solve the problem, said Paramount’s Mandato, adding that Paramount is not likely to adopt the hybrid disc “until the capacity issue is solved.”

“The capacity issue they laid out at CES was the equivalent of a single-layer on both formats,” said Mandato. “The guiding rule we use for going to dual-layer on Blu-ray is that when the running time for a movie is beyond 105 or 110 minutes, it is pretty much pushing the envelope to needing a BD-50 disc. The average running time for our last 20 or so movies was 124 minutes. So, unless a flipper disc from Warner can accommodate that, I don’t think there will be that much interest.”


Another sign that we can look forward to mediocre PQ on future Warner releases.

Parson's is like that creepy relative we all know that does drugs, and we have to shake hands with every thanksgiving.

Easy Andy, it aint over!

What I find interesting is this:

Through Feb. 25, Mandato said, 694,000 Blu-ray movies were sold compared with 655,000 HD DVD movies.

An interesting data point! :)

EDIT: Looking at the First Alert data reported in the Neilsen/VideoScan analysis thread, Mandato appears to be looking at VideoScan for his figures or some very close facsimile.

655,000/694,000 = 94.38% HD DVD Sales Since Inception versus 100% Blu-ray Sales Since Inception

The VideoScan data acquired by Grubert indicates 94.25%... very, very close. I bet Mandato did some rounding to the nearest thousand. I need to do some formulaic regression to be sure, but I bet it's possible to project the Neilsen numbers for year ending 2006 based on this.

I don't know how much pull this Mandato guy has at Paramount but his comments about the studios' cool reception toward Warner's Total HD disc are the first official words from an insider that Paramount might not release in that format (something that most of us were assuming based on the studio's pathetic release schedule as of late).

Agreed. Paramount has been the most dissapointing of all the studios. Their Babel effort was a joke! They are also the only studio to not release a film with lossless/uncompressed audio. A title like MI3 really could've used lossless.

What I find interesting is this:



An interesting data point! :)

Very interesting, the war is far from over.

Very interesting, the war is far from over.

That data point ignores that most of those Blu-ray sales are from the past 2 months.

fa,

What is so hard to understand about this statement?

On the selfish side, we are putting ourselves in the best position to make the most money for the studio,” he continued. “So why not pick a winner now? Well, there are risks involved in doing that, if you recall the last [presidential] election. Quite honestly, there is some evidence to suggest now that we may not be ready to pick a winner.”

If the war were REALLY over like you and all the other fanboys proclaim, why wouldnt Paramount pick a winner, why would he lie?

The simple fact is that right now, wishful thinking by the BD fanboys aside, it IS too early to call a winner.

Very interesting, the war is far from over.I thought is was going to be over in 3-4 months? ;) If it is (and Blu-ray wins), I guess the masses (me included) can all sit back for a year or two (if that soon) and wait for players to reach an affordable level. Then if nothing better has come along, we can enjoy BD movies too!

fa,

What is so hard to understand about this statement?



If the war were REALLY over like you and all the other fanboys proclaim, why wouldnt Paramount pick a winner, why would he lie?

The simple fact is that right now, wishful thinking by the BD fanboys aside, it IS too early to call a winner.

It's never too early to call a winner. No one is going to die if they were wrong.

It's never too early to call a winner
Apparently Paramount disagrees.

It's never too early to call a winner. No one is going to die if they were wrong.

Not die, but they loose credibility.

PS3 is about to launch in Europe.

Expect a deluge of "articles" like this one. :rolleyes:

Don't forget the chairman of Sony came from the American CBS television network, he doesn't know squat about electronics, he just pushes media around.

Through Feb. 25, Mandato said, 694,000 Blu-ray movies were sold compared with 655,000 HD DVD movies.

No incentive to go exclusive just yet with these figures.

Apparently Paramount disagrees.

I doubt that. Barring any significant marketplace developments, HD-DVD will not regain the sales lead in players or discs.

fa,

I doubt that

Why do you doubt that. Are you saying that the guy from Paramount lied? Do you claim to know more about the situation than Mondato? What special knowledge do you possess that refutes Mondato's statement.

fa,



Why do you doubt that. Are you saying that the guy from Paramount lied? Do you claim to know more about the situation than Mondato? What special knowledge do you possess that refutes Mondato's statement.

I don't have any special knowledge, but lying is constant in business. Everyone lies. I could get Mandato on the phone right now (I worked with him years ago in NY before he repositioned himself as a film guy)...but he'd probably lie, so what's the point?

Fa,

I can certainly understand that position, and it may very well be correct. The problem is, that you then have to disbelieve everyone, including pro BD statements. You couldnt use any statement from Sony, Fox, etc, to support any point you made.

Fa,

I can certainly understand that position, and it may very well be correct. The problem is, that you then have to disbelieve everyone, including pro BD statements. You couldnt use any statement from Sony, Fox, etc, to support any point you made.

Reputable sales numbers don't lie. What are those telling you over the past 8 weeks?

BTW, how come Andy and Vito Mandato get quoted all over this story but there's not a single quote/statement from an HD-DVD supporter? I hate it when the deck is stacked like this againt HD-DVD even if the points made by these guys are strong. You know HD-DVD is screwed in the war for media/PR when a Paramount guy is your only backer! :(

Sorry, I don't quite understand the thread title "Andy Parson's Soap Box! War Over in 3-4 Months??!!" and your subsequent commentary.

It appears Vito Mandato (neutral format supporter of Paramount) made the "war over" observation himself based on upcoming BD blockbuster release schedule, not Andy Parsons.

The only comments from Andy is that he doesn't see downloaded content as main competition to EITHER HD optical formats at this time and that dual-format players won't help resolve the war in either side's favor.

Finally, you must have missed the comments from Mark Waring, "a Sanyo Technology Center director and spokesman for the HD DVD Promoters Group." I didn't read anything from Parsons or Waring that pushed their own group's interest. It was as neutral as you can get.

Nice article. It's starting to get pick-up worldwide ... e.g, http://www.smarthouse.com.au/Home_Cinema/DVD_Players?Article=/Home%20Cinema/DVD%20Players/M7X9N2P4

At some point, facts won't matter ... what will matter is the "perception".

Sorry, I don't quite understand the thread title "Andy Parson's Soap Box! War Over in 3-4 Months??!!" and your subsequent commentary.

It appears Vito Mandato (neutral format supporter of Paramount) made the "war over" observation himself based on upcoming BD blockbuster release schedule, not Andy Parsons.

The only comments from Andy is that he doesn't see downloaded content as main competition to EITHER HD optical formats at this time and that dual-format players won't help resolve the war in either side's favor.

Finally, you must have missed the comments from Mark Waring, "a Sanyo Technology Center director and spokesman for the HD DVD Promoters Group." I didn't read anything from Parsons or Waring that pushed their own group's interest. It was as neutral as you can get.


Well sure, you had to go and read the article, didn't ya... what a buzz-kill

;)

Fa,

Reputable sales numbers don't lie. What are those telling you over the past 8 weeks?

They tell me a couple of things. One, HD sales are lagging because of the limited number of new releases which is a problem.

BD is enjoying a sales increase due in part to the PS3 and the sale that is going on. However, I dont think the sales increase will last for a couple of reasons. First, when interesting games come out, I think there will be a reallocation of money from movies to games, which will decrease sales. Second, the intital buying boom one has with the purchase of a player will subside.

Fa,



They tell me a couple of things. One, HD sales are lagging because of the limited number of new releases which is a problem.

BD is enjoying a sales increase due in part to the PS3 and the sale that is going on. However, I dont think the sales increase will last for a couple of reasons. First, when interesting games come out, I think there will be a reallocation of money from movies to games, which will decrease sales. Second, the intital buying boom one has with the purchase of a player will subside.

The sale has only existed for 3 days. HD-DVD has been getting killed for the past 8 weeks or so...long before the sale. I see no reason why the PS3 won't continue to sell well, and going by what people are saying about attach rates, PS3 isn't going to be losing any movie sales to games since hardly any of those people are buying movies anyway (or so I'm told). As such, I don't see how HD-DVD is going to survive, much less prosper.

fa,

I see no reason why the PS3 won't continue to sell well

It isnt selling that well right now. I dont know the Feb numbers, but they were 4th in January with only 250K units sold in NA.,

and going by what people are saying about attach rates, PS3 isn't going to be losing any movie sales to games since hardly any of those people are buying movies anyway (or so I'm told). As such, I don't see how HD-DVD is going to survive, much less prosper.

Well, I think that the percentage of people who bought the PS3 as a dedicated BD player is low, I do think that probably 25-30% of the owners have picked up a movie or two. I think that many of those will decrease their consumption when more games come out.

Similarly, Warner Brothers’ proposed Total HD dual-format flipper disc is not likely to solve the problem, said Paramount’s Mandato, adding that Paramount is not likely to adopt the hybrid disc “until the capacity issue is solved.”

“The capacity issue they laid out at CES was the equivalent of a single-layer on both formats,” said Mandato. “The guiding rule we use for going to dual-layer on Blu-ray is that when the running time for a movie is beyond 105 or 110 minutes, it is pretty much pushing the envelope to needing a BD-50 disc. The average running time for our last 20 or so movies was 124 minutes. So, unless a flipper disc from Warner can accommodate that, I don’t think there will be that much interest.”

I think the gentleman from Paramount is confused as to what TotalHDs capacity will be. At CED Warner stated that both formats would have full capacity, dual-layer on both sides. See link below. About 2/3 down.

http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/09/live-coverage-from-the-warner-press-conference/

fa,



It isnt selling that well right now. I dont know the Feb numbers, but they were 4th in January with only 250K units sold in NA.,



Well, I think that the percentage of people who bought the PS3 as a dedicated BD player is low, I do think that probably 25-30% of the owners have picked up a movie or two. I think that many of those will decrease their consumption when more games come out.

250K? That's probably 5-10 times the number of HD-DVD players sold in the same time period.

Decrease consumption? How do you decrease consumption from 1-2 movies? And you don't think some of those people who haven't bought a movie are going to buy a few?

BD is enjoying a sales increase due in part to the PS3 and the sale that is going on.

The latest sales numbers are from February 25, well before the start of the amazon sale.

Ok, stupid question (I ask those a LOT), would most people say "early adopters" are or are not representative of the overall population? Call me stupid, but I'd think by being an "early adopter" that this group does not represent (fully) the tastes of the larger population . . . if they did, they wouldn't be early adopters, right? Or is my thinking all whacked out. Ok, let's assume that we can assume that early adopter behavior is (at least in some dimensions) different from mass adopter behavior. Safe bet? Ok then, if so called "mass adopters" go see the aforementioned blockbuster films in the theater, and Blu-ray has the majority of releases coming out this year for theatrical release, is it really safe to assume that "mass adopter" theater consumption/behavior is the same as "early adopter" theater consumption/behavior? Or said differently, are early adopters interested in the same kinds/types of movies as mass adopters?

In purely annecdotal observation (no data what-so-ever), it seems to me that a lot of the movie afictionados (sp?) around here love the classic movies or cult movies or indie films or european movies, etc. So, in that context, does having a lot of current content being released on Blu-ray actually HELP the BRA in terms of adoption rates of the hardware and attach rates of the software? I understand that once we hit the mass adoption phase (i.e., under $200) this will matter, but does it right now?

I think a lot of people are connecting a LOT of dots that don't necessarily (or that we cannot know) connect.

fa,

250K? That's probably 5-10 times the number of HD-DVD players sold in the same time period

Sales of PS3 compared to HD DVD players are irrelevant. You said the PS3 was selling well. I pointed out that it isnt selling well.

And you don't think some of those people who haven't bought a movie are going to buy a few?

Well, if you believe the BD fanboys, what drives sales is mostly the big blockbusters. So, once those run out, then no I wouldnt expect them to buy many more movies.

Grubert and FA,

Read what I said, I said in part due to the sale. As a couple of threads indicated there was a spike in the sales ratio in the last week - during the sale.

It isnt selling that well right now. I dont know the Feb numbers, but they were 4th in January with only 250K units sold in NA.Well, if PS3s aren't selling well, then HD DVD is definitely in trouble. BD sales jumped after the PS3 came out. If that is from a poor-selling PS3, I would hate to see a great-selling PS3. The BD:HD DVD ratio would be devastating! (it isn't now, so no worries)

Well, I think that the percentage of people who bought the PS3 as a dedicated BD player is low, I do think that probably 25-30% of the owners have picked up a movie or two. I think that many of those will decrease their consumption when more games come out.Maybe, but in the meantime, more PS3s will be bought and even with that low of an attachment rate, BD sales will continue to rise.

A great way to increase HD DVD sales is to sell more players (cheap ones!).

Early adopters are considered bizzarro mutants, and not representative of the general public. :D
J

Reputable sales numbers don't lie. What are those telling you over the past 8 weeks?
That unless Toshiba/MS/Unknown Chinese HD-DVD player sales bring HD-DVD back into parity with BD discs sales by the end of the year that Paramount will have a clear choice to back BD exclusively or sooner.

b2b

Sorry, I don't quite understand the thread title "Andy Parson's Soap Box! War Over in 3-4 Months??!!" and your subsequent commentary.

It appears Vito Mandato (neutral format supporter of Paramount) made the "war over" observation himself based on upcoming BD blockbuster release schedule, not Andy Parsons.

The only comments from Andy is that he doesn't see downloaded content as main competition to EITHER HD optical formats at this time and that dual-format players won't help resolve the war in either side's favor.

Finally, you must have missed the comments from Mark Waring, "a Sanyo Technology Center director and spokesman for the HD DVD Promoters Group." I didn't read anything from Parsons or Waring that pushed their own group's interest. It was as neutral as you can get.
You beat me to it... ;)

Baronken,

Well, if PS3s aren't selling well,

They arent selling well, and the numbers show that. If it were selling well one wouldnt expect it be fourth, now would you?


then HD DVD is definitely in trouble.

HD has some issues, but I think they are largely unrelated to the PS3, which I dont count as that significant a factor.


BD sales jumped after the PS3 came out.

True, but there are a couple of things to consider. How long will it last? When you buy a new gadget, there is a buying spree that goes with it. Second, the jump wasnt that big if you think the PS3 is that big a factor. If you consider the PS3 to be a significant factor then you would expect, given the roughly million or so PS3's bought in NA that the increase would be larger.

If that is from a poor-selling PS3, I would hate to see a great-selling PS3. The BD:HD DVD ratio would be devastating! (it isn't now, so no worries)

Again, I dont see it as a huge factor. If a PS3 owner buys one or two movies that isnt a big deal to the studios, because they are looking for a revenue stream, they are looking to sell their catalog titles again. All the fanboys around here are stating that the important things are the Blockbusters. So if the only movies that PS3 owners buy are the blockbusters, then they are a marginal issue in the outcome.

I think the gentleman from Paramount is confused as to what TotalHDs capacity will be. At CED Warner stated that both formats would have full capacity, dual-layer on both sides. See link below. About 2/3 down.

http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/09/live-coverage-from-the-warner-press-conference/

That's the point: you will need triple layer on the HD-DVD side to get to the 50G he's referring to.

Nice article. It's starting to get pick-up worldwide ... e.g, http://www.smarthouse.com.au/Home_Cinema/DVD_Players?Article=/Home%20Cinema/DVD%20Players/M7X9N2P4

At some point, facts won't matter ... what will matter is the "perception".

At some point? Sadly it's as much perception as it is facts anymore :(

Cheers,

That unless Toshiba/MS/Unknown Chinese HD-DVD player sales bring HD-DVD back into parity with BD discs sales by the end of the year that Paramount will have a clear choice to back BD exclusively or sooner.

b2b

I think in the ballpark is good, say 3:2 split for the two is fine. Going much above that and it really starts to tip.

Cheers,

I think the gentleman from Paramount is confused as to what TotalHDs capacity will be. At CED Warner stated that both formats would have full capacity, dual-layer on both sides. See link below. About 2/3 down.

http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/09/live-coverage-from-the-warner-press-conference/

That was my understanding as well but perhaps Paramount is in a better position to know than we are.

In any event, if you think that the format war may be ending soon, THD would not be something you want to get into. Manufacturing the more expensive THD disks for a non-existent market would be a bad idea. Paramount can always gracefully reduce the number of disks for the losing format.

In the current situation, it is for the same reason surprising that Warners would go ahead with THD for the same reasons.

In the current situation, it is for the same reason surprising that Warners would go ahead with THD for the same reasons.


It's important to remember that Warner has IP in HD DVD. Further, they have almost all the IP in THD. The perfect way for this format war to end up, from Warner's point of view, is for every studio to use THD. That way they get the royalties from every disc, even if it is a Sony movie played on a PS3.

Baronken,



They arent selling well, and the numbers show that. If it were selling well one wouldnt expect it be fourth, now would you?

Uh, I don't know about Hawaii, but here in Socal, there are still supply problems with the retailers. I still see some stores that are sold of PS3s and Amazon still does not have a supply of PS3s. When they get them, it is usually gone within days.


HD has some issues, but I think they are largely unrelated to the PS3, which I dont count as that significant a factor.

What issues are you referring to?


Again, I dont see it as a huge factor. If a PS3 owner buys one or two movies that isnt a big deal to the studios, because they are looking for a revenue stream, they are looking to sell their catalog titles again. All the fanboys around here are stating that the important things are the Blockbusters. So if the only movies that PS3 owners buy are the blockbusters, then they are a marginal issue in the outcome.

How can you NOT consider the PS3 a significant factor? I am an avid gamer and I have already brought 10 BD movies and this after owning the system for 2 weeks. I will not be buying another bluray or HDDVD player again for a while. If everyone PS3 owner brought 1 movie, that is almost 1.2 Million more discs sold than HDDVD.

Plasma,

Uh, I don't know about Hawaii, but here in Socal, there are still supply problems with the retailers. I still see some stores that are sold of PS3s and Amazon still does not have a supply of PS3s. When they get them, it is usually gone within days.

Well, in both Hawaii, and Texas before I moved, there were plenty of 60GB ps3s. Every store had quite a few of them. Admittedly, the 20GB version was harder to find, but you could still find them.

What issues are you referring to?

A month or so of no new releases.

How can you NOT consider the PS3 a significant factor? I am an avid gamer and I have already brought 10 BD movies and this after owning the system for 2 weeks. I will not be buying another bluray or HDDVD player again for a while. If everyone PS3 owner brought 1 movie, that is almost 1.2 Million more discs sold than HDDVD.

How can I not, well, you and the other people here are not really the norm. I have no doubt that there are PS3 owners that have bought lots of movies. But I am also pretty sure that that number is rather small, otherwise BD disc sales would be a lot higher than they are. Yes, some of the increase in BD disc sales in recent weeks is due to PS3 owners, but they are a distinct minority.

If everyone PS3 owner brought 1 movie, that is almost 1.2 Million more discs sold than HDDVD.

And you just proved my point. They havent, and there is no reason to believe that they will. One more time, yes some PS3 owners buy movies, and yes some PS3 owners probably buy lots of movies. But they are a small small number

One more time, yes some PS3 owners buy movies, and yes some PS3 owners probably buy lots of movies. But they are a small small number
And a lot of those were coupon purchases, and more will be sale price purchases. It would be nice to know how many are subsidized, cos when the subsidies come off.....

Wayne,

And a lot of those were coupon purchases, and more will be sale price purchases. It would be nice to know how many are subsidized, cos when the subsidies come off.....

True, but I think it all washes out. I mean 2 weeks ago, I almost bought the Tosh A2 at BB because I would have gotten 9 free HD DVDs. BB had any 4 HD DVDs of your choice, and Toshiba is giving away 5 HD DVDs.

While I stood there thinking about it, 2 people picked up players. I have my doubts that they would have done so without the offer.

So the subsidies are a wash.

Can we stick to discussing issues brought up in the article instead?!?

BTW, how come Andy and Vito Mandato get quoted all over this story but there's not a single quote/statement from an HD-DVD supporter?HD DVD boys have no good news to back them up.

It's never too early to call a winner. No one is going to die if they were wrong.


No, but the possibility of munching on deep-fried crow is a certainty for one side or the other. :)

Reputable sales numbers don't lie. What are those telling you over the past 8 weeks?


Nothing remarkable really. It's too early to say one way or another.

250K? That's probably 5-10 times the number of HD-DVD players sold in the same time period.

There it is again...

Comparing PS3 sales directly with HD DVD stand alone sales is erroneous, and the software sales reflect that.

When the HD DVD of 'The Departed' (for example) sells about 2/3 as many copies as the Blu Ray version, yet the total number of PS3 systems is a multiple of the installed HD DVD player base, that should tell you everything you need to know.

How can you make the leap in logic to compare PS3 systems directly with HD DVD players unless you are pushing an agenda or only seeing what you want to see irrespective of the facts?

Counting every PS3 sold as a Blu Ray user is just a numbers game that the BDA and their followers play in hopes of scaring others away from HD DVD.

HD DVD is not about to die, but I’ll be damned if it does not appear that the BDA is desperate for that to happen.

Sean,

Actually counting every PS3 as a BD player in one respect hurts BD because it shows how low actual sales of discs are. For example Hollywood reporter just indicated that for the first week, The Departed sold 23K discs on BD and 15K discs on HD.

If each PS3 player is actually a BD player, then the sales figures for BD are appaling.

See, the problem is that you can't count the PS3 the same as a standalone player (for several reasons, not the least of which is that many if not most were sold to people with out HDTVs), and yet you can't discount it either because the number sold is more than all of the other standalone players of both formats put together.

It's why the attach rate numbers are pretty meaningless, it's an apples to oranges comparison.

There it is again...

Comparing PS3 sales directly with HD DVD stand alone sales is erroneous, and the software sales reflect that.

When the HD DVD of 'The Departed' (for example) sells about 2/3 as many copies as the Blu Ray version, yet the total number of PS3 systems is a multiple of the installed HD DVD player base, that should tell you everything you need to know.

How can you make the leap in logic to compare PS3 systems directly with HD DVD players unless you are pushing an agenda or only seeing what you want to see irrespective of the facts?

Counting every PS3 sold as a Blu Ray user is just a numbers game that the BDA and their followers play in hopes of scaring others away from HD DVD.

HD DVD is not about to die, but I’ll be damned if it does not appear that the BDA is desperate for that to happen.

There's nothing erroneous about it. The PS3 plays BD discs.

Seeing what I want to see? The reputable data says there are more Blu-ray players in homes, and BD discs outsell HD-DVD discs. There's nothing else to see.

selective quotes .. selective quotes .. some people call it 'framing' ;)

Originally Posted by Baronken

Well, if PS3s aren't selling well, then HD DVD is definitely in trouble. BD sales jumped after the PS3 came out. If that is from a poor-selling PS3, I would hate to see a great-selling PS3. The BD:HD DVD ratio would be devastating! (it isn't now, so no worries)

I think that was the plan - PS3 is suppose to be devastating to HD DVD.

Baronken,

Well, if PS3s aren't selling well, then HD DVD is definitely in trouble. BD sales jumped after the PS3 came out. If that is from a poor-selling PS3, I would hate to see a great-selling PS3. The BD:HD DVD ratio would be devastating! (it isn't now, so no worries)

Here is a good example of why the ratio isnt very meaningful. The first week out, the Departed sold 23K units in BD and 15K units in HD.

So, you can spin this as BD sold 50% more discs, wow, BD is just killing HD. And the first part would be right, they did sell 50% more discs, but in reality, the 8K discs is so small that it isnt a killing and it isnt enough to get a studio to change its current position.

The way i see it, HD-DVD are happy to putt along and offer a quality product people are happy with, they're selling discs and standalone players just fine. The advantage of the format is price and I feel they don't lose anywhere what the BDA is. BDA is trying every marketing trick in the book to kill HD-DVD, trying to buy the market really and so far it hasn't worked. Their strategy doesn't work if HD-DVD hangs around, Because all the loses and money they're spending is in the hope they'll get it all back once they win. If there is no ultimate winner, HD-DVD really wins and BDA loses, because on the balance sheet BDA won't be making money out of it unlike the HD-DVD camp.

A lot of what I seen from BDA looks more like an act of desperation than anything, they wish this thing was over in 3-4 months. Sadly it wont.

Baronken,



Here is a good example of why the ratio isnt very meaningful. The first week out, the Departed sold 23K units in BD and 15K units in HD.

So, you can spin this as BD sold 50% more discs, wow, BD is just killing HD. And the first part would be right, they did sell 50% more discs, but in reality, the 8K discs is so small that it isnt a killing and it isnt enough to get a studio to change its current position.

Many people were speculating that the increase in Blu-ray sales was simply a function of the many new titles that were coming out. The fact that Blu-ray sold 3:2 on a given title disproves this claim.

Further, the large number of Blu-ray titles being shipped may have slightly suppressed sales of The Departed for people on a budget. There were 13 new Blu-ray disks that week, compared to only The Departed on HD DVD.

Yes, you can spin it either way, but the ratio is actually higher than I would have predicted.

WRT studio positions: this certainly would not influence either Warners or Paramount at this point. It might interest Universal.

"Vito Mandato, Paramount Home Entertainment executive consultant, pointed out what Sony and other Blu-ray backers have said since International CES, that the Blu-ray format is about to have the lion’s share of the top box office earners from last year released on Blu-ray Disc. That could be enough to ignite a chain reaction of demand that will settle the format war for good, he said."

I guess this explains Paramounts obvious lack of recent HD titles. They are apparently trying to sabatoge the chances for HD DVD to succeed. The dirty rats.

selective quotes .. selective quotes .. some people call it 'framing' ;)

Every time I read your signature, I must smile. Amazing how much things have improved for BD since then, no? ;)

Reginald,

You should read the whole thing. He also said that it is too early to call a winner.

Every time I read your signature, I must smile. Amazing how much things have improved for BD since then, no? ;)

indeed ;)

Many people were speculating that the increase in Blu-ray sales was simply a function of the many new titles that were coming out. The fact that Blu-ray sold 3:2 on a given title disproves this claim.

Further, the large number of Blu-ray titles being shipped may have slightly suppressed sales of The Departed for people on a budget. There were 13 new Blu-ray disks that week, compared to only The Departed on HD DVD.

Yes, you can spin it either way, but the ratio is actually higher than I would have predicted.

WRT studio positions: this certainly would not influence either Warners or Paramount at this point. It might interest Universal.

If you went by Amazon, except for the Usual Suspect, all the other tites barely made the 2000 rank. I believe I posted in on a thread at the time. The Departed was the highest selling title for both formats that week on Amazon. AFAIK.

"Vito Mandato, Paramount Home Entertainment executive consultant......
The guy is a high priced consultant. Consultants don't announce important policies, like they can see the end of the format war or if there will be an end. They've let him express his personal view, and it should be taken as that.

The guy is a high priced consultant. Consultants don't announce important policies, like they can see the end of the format war or if there will be an end. They've let him express his personal view, and it should be taken as that.

What is an executive consultant? Does he advice executives????

If you went by Amazon, except for the Usual Suspect, all the other tites barely made the 2000 rank. I believe I posted in on a thread at the time. The Departed was the highest selling title for both formats that week on Amazon. AFAIK.

True enough, but the surrounding weeks also had a lot of content for Blu-ray (Prestige was the next week and people were preordering it like crazy, Vertical Limit was doing pretty well).

It certainly is conceivable that Blu-ray supporters were a bit less focused on The Departed given their other chocies.

However, I was actually surprised that the 3:2 was as high as it was. I would have suggested that it was much closer given the rankings.

Departed also had a big surge for the next two weeks due to the Oscars. It would be interesting to get an updated. I notice that it is still higher ranked on Blu-ray than HD DVD even with the huge sale going on right now.

What is an executive consultant? Does he advice executives????
Usually a retired executive.

That data point ignores that most of those Blu-ray sales are from the past 2 months.

:D

The problem in just quoting absolute numbers like that misses the point that Blu-ray sales has been thoroughly humiliating HD-DVD for the last several months AND THERE IS NO END IN SIGHT because of the stellar releases coming up from Disney, Sony, and the other BDA members.

When Blu-ray sells more titles in less than 2 months what it sold in the entire 2006, you know it's HOT.

ADDED: Darn, i DO sound like a fanboi! :o

Usually a retired executive.

So that would make it is personal opinion. I think he makes sense. But it seems like his 15 minutes of glory in the sun :)

True enough, but the surrounding weeks also had a lot of content for Blu-ray (Prestige was the next week and people were preordering it like crazy, Vertical Limit was doing pretty well).

It certainly is conceivable that Blu-ray supporters were a bit less focused on The Departed given their other chocies.

However, I was actually surprised that the 3:2 was as high as it was. I would have suggested that it was much closer given the rankings.

Departed also had a big surge for the next two weeks due to the Oscars. It would be interesting to get an updated. I notice that it is still higher ranked on Blu-ray than HD DVD even with the huge sale going on right now.

No doubt the BD folks had a wider selection to choose from. I was surprised that the numbers were so small, especially given that both titles were ranked in the mid 20s and 30s for several weeks on Amazon. That to me says that Amazon probably does not move a lot of disks in general. For me, that was what was the most surprising of all.

As far as the sales ratio, honestly I'm not too surprised. This was one example where I picked the BD version since it was the better value - PCM, VC-1 and $5 less.

Reginald,

You should read the whole thing. He also said that it is too early to call a winner.

I did read the whole thing and what I state is consistent with what he said. If he feels that way perhaps he's giving Paramount advice to help bluray and hurt HD. I think his statement could explain why HD DVD has not seen any recent titles from Paramount.

Here's a pretty different take from the same event: http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6422896.html. Note that Mandato emphasized that he doesn't speak for Paramount and said, "Some studio chiefs have claimed to have won, but quite honestly the war continues."

The guy is a high priced consultant.Thanks for pointing that out. I hadn't caught the consultant part. I do like how he picks a number for the PS3 and applies it. He is using 22%, which six months ago I would have put on the high side (I believe I said that if they could hit an effective 20% of standalones with the PS3, that it would have a big impact on the war). That 22% might be true at this point though.

--Darin

1.4 million players and 694,00 disks sold for BR. Not very exciting numbers. Hell, I bought a big chunck of that in the last two weeks.:)

To argue the war is over or will be over soon with such small numbers is really pathetic, IMHO.

Here's a pretty different take from the same event: http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6422896.html. Note that Mandato emphasized that he doesn't speak for Paramount and said, "Some studio chiefs have claimed to have won, but quite honestly the war continues."

hmm someone forgot to include these quotes from Mandato !! :D :D

Mandato predicts the number of hardware units in homes by the end of 2007 will be at 1.7 million for each format. On the HD DVD side, that includes 1.2 million stand-alone players and 500,000 Xbox 360 add-on drives.

For BD, Mandato is counting only 22%, or 1.2 million, of the 5.5 million PS3 units projected to be sold during the year, plus 500,000 stand-alone players, because his analysis suggests that just 22% of PS3 households purchase movies regularly.

opps there goes the <>$300 subsidy on the PS3 players. 22% :D

A recent NPD survey showed 83% of DVD buyers said they had bought HD DVD titles, and 69% said they had bought BD titles.

also from NPD: imagine how Combos can change these figures. Its time to put Combos in the DVD section too ;)

“So in consumer’s minds, next-generation is closing in on a 2% share of all DVD sales,” said Crupnick. “But in fact, [HD DVD and BD sales] are less than 0.5%.”

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6422896.html

1.4 million players and 694,00 disks sold for BR. Not very exciting numbers. Hell, I bought a big chunck of that in the last two weeks.:)

To argue the war is over or will be over soon with such small numbers is really pathetic, IMHO.

IT'S BD not BR .. GOD DAMN IT @@@@ . how many times that i have to repeat that !! :D :D :D Guess BDA media campaign to educate the public about BD is working just "fine" ... :p

IT'S BD not BR .. GOD DAMN IT @@@@ . how many times that i have to repeat that !! :D :D :D Guess BDA media campaign to educate the public about BD is working just "fine" ... :p

:)

A lot of what I seen from BDA looks more like an act of desperation than anything, they wish this thing was over in 3-4 months. Sadly it wont.

Clearly they are throwing everything but the kitchen sink right now to end this war as early as possible. I agree with you, that strategy will not work, and it's going to cost them a lot more money before the war is truly over, if ever.

I said it before, if HD-DVD survives, it's a big win for them, and will push manufacturers to come up with universal players (I believe this is more likely than all studios going THD).

Andy Parson is a real clown. I remember his interview for Widescreen Review (another pro BR publication), claiming that all the PQ shortcomings were because of Samsung's player. If I was Samsung, I would definitely tell them to take a hike, but I guess they also believed Sony when they were told the PS3 would end up the format war real quick...

Thanks for pointing that out. I hadn't caught the consultant part. I do like how he picks a number for the PS3 and applies it. He is using 22%, which six months ago I would have put on the high side (I believe I said that if they could hit an effective 20% of standalones with the PS3, that it would have a big impact on the war). That 22% might be true at this point though.

--Darin

And I know you won't agree with that, but IMO 20% is rather optimist for the future, once 4th quarter games show up. They'll be lucky to hit 15% at that point.

asj,

Wow, i am impressed that you know so much more than people who work in the industry.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6422896.html

I think all those panelists who work in the industry should bow down before you, and beg for your forgiveness for their stupidity and ignorance, and give you all the money they have earned while working.

They are obviously nothing compared to your infinite wisdom and insight. :rolleyes:

Blu ray WILL win eventually, when depends on how much longer HDDVD promo guys keep their heads stuck firmly up their asses. Seriously, who does the marketing for these guys? HDDVD had everything going for them but for some reason they forgot to advertise their product. By now its too late, BD is outselling them so there's no reason to BD studios to switch and there's nothing they can do to overcome Blu ray's exclusive studio support. Its all about content and HDDVD's inability to match BD in that department is a death sentence.

HD HAD NO MOVIES FOR 6 WEEKS AND 15,000 DISCS WAS ALL THEY COULD MUSTER. I dont know why people cant see that. It has been well documented that BD has had more titles released this year and mainly all HD had as far as a big movie was the Departed and even though BD owners had many more choices they still sold more copies. Yes it was only 8000 more but that number will only continue to grow as more and more players hit the market. Look at the Amazon sale. It shows there are BD owners buying movies at a comparable rate to SD even for a short period. BD is heading in the right direction and I dont understand why people arent seeing this.

theforce,

see my comments to asj and read the linked article. The people on the panel, who work in the industry, dont think the war is over, and they have more information than we do. In a nutshell HD optical discs account for 0.5% of all DVD sales. Heck, according to the article, Apple sells more movies via iTunes than sales of HD discs.

Therefore, the numbers and money are so small that no studio is likely to switch stances.

Given that do you rea

theforce,

see my comments to asj and read the linked article. The people on the panel, who work in the industry, dont think the war is over, and they have more information than we do. In a nutshell HD optical discs account for 0.5% of all DVD sales. Heck, according to the article, Apple sells more movies via iTunes than sales of HD discs.

Therefore, the numbers and money are so small that no studio is likely to switch stances.

Given that do you rea

Its not over but its heading in one direction and I havent heard anybody give me a reasonable explanantion on how HD is gonna stop it. (Mythical 100 Chinese Players that nobody has seen or heard from dont count) I know BD or HD isnt close to SD but its doing very well compared to the original launch of SD. So Im not worried about its future. BD is doing very well at getting players and movies into homes no matter what some people on here think and no matter how they have to do it (PS3, Great Software Sales, Tons of Advertising.)

It Sold 50% more Departed Discs. Now that number is 8000 in first week. 6 months it could be 80,000 and then 800,000. But the faster there is one format the better for everyone and 98% of the people, store owners, movie execs etc see that point.

$ony backs blu but one has to wonder how much red ink they are hemorrhaging in this battle which might cause them to bleed to death.

If BDA can keep their hardware costs similar to hd-dvd, Blu Ray will prevail in the end.Although I am not sure this will be achieved in 3-4 months. :rolleyes:
The content argument is with Blu Ray at this time, hd-dvd simply does not have enough blockbuster films to entice would be customers, and that is a major problem for them.If Blu Ray keeps knocking out big popular exclusive titles month after month, from here on in, and keeps the existing studios on board then the outcome will be favorable.

The good news from this article is Paramounts scepticism towards warners THD and the combo/universal players...hopefully, and given the comments in the article, we will see neither. :)

All is not lost for hd-dvd at this point, they have lead the way with hardware pricing so far and if they can deliver new hardware at a price where the masses start to pile in to HD, Blu Ray could be under serious fire if the alliance starts to crumble, as a result.At the end of the day it wont be to much of tear if I have to buy a hd-dvd player if, and its a big if, hd-dvd win and emerge as the clear winner.

Until we have a clear winner we can look forward to more daft/pointless polls, threads degenerating into school yard arguments and general madness on these forums :D ......time to get stocked up on the valium...and you all might want to get more than 3-4 months worth ;)

From This Week In Consumer Electronics: http://www.twice.com/article/CA6422671.html


From Video Business:

Panelists: No end yet to high-def war (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6422896.html)


Vito Mandato "led his speech with the disclaimer that his views may not represent the views of Paramount."

Industry sources say both BD and HD DVD stand-alone player sales were about equal in February.

Ok, stupid question (I ask those a LOT), would most people say "early adopters" are or are not representative of the overall population?

In the late 50's, Iowa State created a model for technology adoption. It has five groups in a classic bell curve. In order of adoption they are: Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority and Laggards. Innovators tend to try everything and are always moving to the next product. They have very little price sensitivity. Early Adopters are the first serious customers. Their demographics are different from the population as a whole in that they will spend much more on technology (although typically less than Innovators) and are more concerned with features and quality. They like to be on the cutting edge so that they can show off their toys to their Early Majority friends.

Getting Early Majority adoption is what Geofferey Moore call Crossing the Chasm. These people listen to Early Adopters but only buy when prices drop or value proposition gets high enough. Late Majority buy only when everything is clear. Laggards are just now getting DVD, so we do not have to worry about them.

Call me stupid, but I'd think by being an "early adopter" that this group does not represent (fully) the tastes of the larger population . . .

Their tastes in movies has nothing to do with their taste in toys. Some are early adopters of this technology because of their interest in movies, some just because they like toys.

if they did, they wouldn't be early adopters, right?

Wrong. They buy early for different reasons, some simply because they like toys, others because they like to show off for friends and some because they love movies.

Ok, let's assume that we can assume that early adopter behavior is (at least in some dimensions) different from mass adopter behavior.

It is different in that they buy technology before others do. Their reasons for doing so may or may not have anything to do with their taste in movies. Even those that bought because they love movies may or may have tastes that are similar to everyone else's.

Safe bet? Ok then, if so called "mass adopters" go see the aforementioned blockbuster films in the theater, and Blu-ray has the majority of releases coming out this year for theatrical release, is it really safe to assume that "mass adopter" theater consumption/behavior is the same as "early adopter" theater consumption/behavior? Or said differently, are early adopters interested in the same kinds/types of movies as mass adopters?

Some are and some are not.

In purely annecdotal observation (no data what-so-ever), it seems to me that a lot of the movie [ed aficionados] around here love the classic movies or cult movies or indie films or european movies, etc.

That is true. Some also like big blockbusters and some like bad b-movies.

So, in that context, does having a lot of current content being released on Blu-ray actually HELP the BRA in terms of adoption rates of the hardware and attach rates of the software? I understand that once we hit the mass adoption phase (i.e., under $200) this will matter, but does it right now?

Yes, it matters for several reasons. First as noted before, while some early purchasers are probably classic movie fans others are not. Second, as we try to cross the chasm, those in the early majority are less likely to be as informed about all issues on these platforms and so will look simply at the those available. Even if they prefer some older movies, many will look at the wider selection of assume of current hit films on Blu-ray and will assume that this holds true for all titles.

/carmi

asj,

Wow, i am impressed that you know so much more than people who work in the industry.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6422896.html

I think all those panelists who work in the industry should bow down before you, and beg for your forgiveness for their stupidity and ignorance, and give you all the money they have earned while working.

They are obviously nothing compared to your infinite wisdom and insight. :rolleyes:

I found this piece of analysis slightly curious:

Mandato predicts the number of hardware units in homes by the end of 2007 will be at 1.7 million for each format. On the HD DVD side, that includes 1.2 million stand-alone players and 500,000 Xbox 360 add-on drives. For BD, Mandato is counting only 22%, or 1.2 million, of the 5.5 million PS3 units projected to be sold during the year, plus 500,000 stand-alone players, because his analysis suggests that just 22% of PS3 households purchase movies regularly.

I won't dispute that 22% of PS3 owners currently buy Blu-ray regularly but I don't believe it will remain at 22%. As the Blu-ray library grows a growing proportion of PS3 owners will start to buy Blu-ray movies. Casino Royale will bring in a few; The 'Pirates' movies will bring in a few more; The 'Spider-man' movies will bring in a few more and so on.

I still fail to see what it is that is causing a person to choose HD DVD over Blu-ray if studio support is considered. For example:

Blu-ray only:
Casino Royale
Night At The Museum
Cars (and all future Pixar HD releases)
Pirates 1 & 2 (and part 3 by Xmas 07)
spider-man 1 & 2 (and part 3 by Xmas 07)
Pursuit of Happyness
and many more huge titles from Fox, Pixar, Disney & Sony

I just find it odd that a consumer would buy into a format that would exclude these titles.

Yes, Universal have great titles, but in terms of recent big hits, that we all know are what really drives the home video market, they haven't had much success.

At least we are guaranteed to find out who was right by Christmas!

I found this piece of analysis slightly curious:



I won't dispute that 22% of PS3 owners currently buy Blu-ray regularly but I don't believe it will remain at 22%. As the Blu-ray library grows a growing proportion of PS3 owners will start to buy Blu-ray movies. Casino Royale will bring in a few; The 'Pirates' movies will bring in a few more; The 'Spider-man' movies will bring in a few more and so on.

I still fail to see what it is that is causing a person to choose HD DVD over Blu-ray if studio support is considered. For example:

Blu-ray only:
Casino Royale
Night At The Museum
Cars (and all future Pixar HD releases)
Pirates 1 & 2 (and part 3 by Xmas 07)
spider-man 1 & 2 (and part 3 by Xmas 07)
Pursuit of Happyness
and many more huge titles from Fox, Pixar, Disney & Sony

I just find it odd that a consumer would buy into a format that would exclude these titles.

Yes, Universal have great titles, but in terms of recent big hits, that we all know are what really drives the home video market, they haven't had much success.

At least we are guaranteed to find out who was right by Christmas!

Still prefer HD DVD for the lack of region coding and other stuff in that direction. As for movies I want movies in both format. So why not start with the cheaper HD DVD player and start there. When bd players are down to 100$ I can buy one of thoose.

There are more great movies out there then just pirates.

I found this piece of analysis slightly curious:



I won't dispute that 22% of PS3 owners currently buy Blu-ray regularly but I don't believe it will remain at 22%. As the Blu-ray library grows a growing proportion of PS3 owners will start to buy Blu-ray movies. Casino Royale will bring in a few; The 'Pirates' movies will bring in a few more; The 'Spider-man' movies will bring in a few more and so on.

I still fail to see what it is that is causing a person to choose HD DVD over Blu-ray if studio support is considered. For example:

Blu-ray only:
Casino Royale
Night At The Museum
Cars (and all future Pixar HD releases)
Pirates 1 & 2 (and part 3 by Xmas 07)
spider-man 1 & 2 (and part 3 by Xmas 07)
Pursuit of Happyness
and many more huge titles from Fox, Pixar, Disney & Sony

I just find it odd that a consumer would buy into a format that would exclude these titles.

Yes, Universal have great titles, but in terms of recent big hits, that we all know are what really drives the home video market, they haven't had much success.

At least we are guaranteed to find out who was right by Christmas!


And who's to say that when HD-DVD attains this sales forecast of 1.7 million players, some of these studios may just go neutral? If HD-DVD actually reaches these numbers (and beyond) and shows no sign of going away, Disney, Fox, or Lion's Gate may decide it's time to start moving more software. If Universal shows huge numbers for certain titles, or if HD-DVD sales continue to grow exponentially, one or more such studios would most likely decide to start releasing HD-DVD's. If one studio declares neutrality, it might have a ripple effect on others. The question remains which side will blink first?

And who's to say that when HD-DVD attains this sales forecast of 1.7 million players, some of these studios may just go neutral? If HD-DVD actually reaches these numbers (and beyond) and shows no sign of going away, Disney, Fox, or Lion's Gate may decide it's time to start moving more software. If Universal shows huge numbers for certain titles, or if HD-DVD sales continue to grow exponentially, one or more such studios would most likely decide to start releasing HD-DVD's. If one studio declares neutrality, it might have a ripple effect on others. The question remains which side will blink first?

HD DVD is finished in Japan (90% of the market is Blu-ray). It will be finished in Europe before it's even got started after the PS3 launch takes Blu-ray to 90% market share. We should get confirmation of this by May at the latest.

The studios and retailers in North America are making noises about wanting one format here and wanting it fast. I really don't think they're going to politely hang around to see if HD DVD can catch up to Blu-ray.

I think it will be all be over before the end of the year. I am not being persuaded otherwise by your arguments.

You, I presume, think things will drag on somewhat longer with both formats battling over the scraps of a tiny marketplace. I just don't see that as any sensible outcome for anyone - studios, retailers or customers.

Still prefer HD DVD for the lack of region coding and other stuff in that direction.DVD Forum is in talks to include region coding in HD DVD :p

HD DVD is finished in Japan (90% of the market is Blu-ray). It will be finished in Europe before it's even got started after the PS3 launch takes Blu-ray to 90% market share. We should get confirmation of this by May at the latest.

The studios and retailers in North America are making noises about wanting one format here and wanting it fast. I really don't think they're going to politely hang around to see if HD DVD can catch up to Blu-ray.

I think it will be all be over before the end of the year. I am not being persuaded otherwise by your arguments.

You, I presume, think things will drag on somewhat longer with both formats battling over the scraps of a tiny marketplace. I just don't see that as any sensible outcome for anyone - studios, retailers or customers.

I agree that it's finished in Japan, as the numbers show. It's useless to try to get the Japanese to buy anything not Sony. I don't get why people think this about Europe though. Right now HD DVD is outselling BD 4:1 in the UK. PS3 is going to make a big difference, but why would it go to 90% BD? Also, Europeans (unlike the Japanese) have been big adopters of the Xbox 360.

... Industry sources say both BD and HD DVD stand-alone player sales were about equal in February.

Hmmmm. That's new information. I'm surprised, as some of the HD DVD fans had been claiming that HD DVD was outselling Blu-ray on standalones ...

DVD Forum is in talks to include region coding in HD DVD :p

Well that would be bad for them, because thats not something that will help my support.

But

They are in talks, they have not included region coding, blue ray have on the other hand.

The players being sold now is region free for HD. So even if they include region coding, it will not affect those players.

So from my point of view BD is still worse on theese aspects.

In the late 50's, Iowa State created a model for technology adoption. It has five groups in a classic bell curve. In order of adoption they are: Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority and Laggards. Innovators tend to try everything and are always moving to the next product. They have very little price sensitivity. Early Adopters are the first serious customers. Their demographics are different from the population as a whole in that they will spend much more on technology (although typically less than Innovators) and are more concerned with features and quality. They like to be on the cutting edge so that they can show off their toys to their Early Majority friends.

Getting Early Majority adoption is what Geofferey Moore call Crossing the Chasm. These people listen to Early Adopters but only buy when prices drop or value proposition gets high enough. Late Majority buy only when everything is clear. Laggards are just now getting DVD, so we do not have to worry about them.



Their tastes in movies has nothing to do with their taste in toys. Some are early adopters of this technology because of their interest in movies, some just because they like toys.



Wrong. They buy early for different reasons, some simply because they like toys, others because they like to show off for friends and some because they love movies.



It is different in that they buy technology before others do. Their reasons for doing so may or may not have anything to do with their taste in movies. Even those that bought because they love movies may or may have tastes that are similar to everyone else's.



Some are and some are not.



That is true. Some also like big blockbusters and some like bad b-movies.



Yes, it matters for several reasons. First as noted before, while some early purchasers are probably classic movie fans others are not. Second, as we try to cross the chasm, those in the early majority are less likely to be as informed about all issues on these platforms and so will look simply at the those available. Even if they prefer some older movies, many will look at the wider selection of assume of current hit films on Blu-ray and will assume that this holds true for all titles.

/carmi

Actually, I appreciate your replies because they essentially back up the point I was trying to make . . . namely that assuming that 'innovators' and 'early adopters' mimic or behave like the 'early majority' or 'late majority' is not necessarily a safe assumption to make. If they differ in the way, manner, speed, or decision criteria that they use to make purchases A/V gear, it is a fairly safe bet that they differ in other attributes as well (such as what kind of movies they want ot watch or purchase, what their price sensitive points are, how "good" is "good enough"). So, in much the same way that it is not "safe" to assume that innovators and early adopters will favor content being provided by HD-DVD over BR, it is also not safe to assume that said innovators or early addopters will favor content being provided by BR.

Which seems to be the assumption most people here are making (i.e., BR has more 'current release content' -> innovators and early adopters will buy BR players -> early majority will see that innovators and early adopters have purchased BR players and cross the chasm). What is silent in this train of thought (or series of assumptions) is what the chasms or gaps are between said innovators and early adopters and the early majority. Specifically, are the attributes that influence innovators and early adopters meaningful to the early majority. Or said a different way . . . if innovators and early adopters bought BR or HD-DVD players because it was high/low cost, had current/classic releases, had better perceived/actual technical specifications . . . . will any (or which) of those attributes (are) important enough to early majority buyers to "cross the chasm"?

I must admit, I am a little confused by your post, mainly because on the one hand you seem to be saying "no they're not alike" or that we can't make the same assumptions about the groups and why they bought technology . . . but then you seem to follow that up with assertions or assumptions of your own as to how this will (not might) play out. For example, to my assertion that innovators or early adopters likely don't have the same tastes in movies as the early majority, you replied that their taste in movies has nothing to do with their taste in toys . . . which, given the current content divisions would seem to be at least a little "off". I mean, I realize there will always be people who just want the new gadget . . . but I believe that many if not most will stop, pause for a moment and even if it is a cursory evaluation think "which movies do I want?". Even if that assumption on my part is not true, ok, so their taste in movies and toys don't have anything to do with one another . . . how does that refute my point, namely that innovators and early adopters don't necessarily value the same attributes of early majority buyers? If anything, I see your comment as supporting my view . . . that trying to draw if->then type conclusions here is a very risky business.

I agree that it's finished in Japan, as the numbers show. It's useless to try to get the Japanese to buy anything not Sony. I don't get why people think this about Europe though. Right now HD DVD is outselling BD 4:1 in the UK. PS3 is going to make a big difference, but why would it go to 90% BD? Also, Europeans (unlike the Japanese) have been big adopters of the Xbox 360.

And the best selling Blu-Ray device in Japan is from Panasonic...

Did you ever take a look at the numbers how many discs have been sold in Europe? I'll give you a hint, Amazon Blu-Ray sale has already sold more.

I agree that it's finished in Japan, as the numbers show. It's useless to try to get the Japanese to buy anything not Sony. I don't get why people think this about Europe though. Right now HD DVD is outselling BD 4:1 in the UK. PS3 is going to make a big difference, but why would it go to 90% BD? Also, Europeans (unlike the Japanese) have been big adopters of the Xbox 360.

It's a fair question. It comes down to the extremely low numbers of HD players sold so far. In the major countries fewer than 5,000 standalone have been sold in total - the actual figures reported are:

HD DVD 3407
Blu-ray 1215
Total 4622

Now there will be some sales in the smaller EU countries and the X-Box add-on will have sold several thousand. If we assume the same ratio as USA - roughly 1:1 (Add-on:Standalone) then you can put another 4,000 or so on top of the Hd DVD figure. Even then that's a very poor figure. It's taken HD DVD over 3 months to get to that meagre player population. Blu-ray is not even in the race at this stage.

However, the argument goes that with 1 million PS3's about to go into Europe then it only takes the quoted 22% proportion to start buying Blu-ray for it to completely dominate.

Let's be generous and say that the X-box add-on has sold 20,000 and round the total HD DVD player population to 25,000. Now, even if Sony only sell 600,000 PS3's in the first few weeks, 22% would be 132,000. That's a ratio of more than 4:1 for Blu-ray.

When Sony get to 1 million PS3's that's 90% of the market to Blu-ray with 220,000 PS3 owners actively buying Blu-ray movies.

Whether all this will happen we won't know until the launch and the weeks following. Not too long to wait. Launch date is 23rd March.

I agree that it's finished in Japan, as the numbers show. It's useless to try to get the Japanese to buy anything not Sony. I don't get why people think this about Europe though. Right now HD DVD is outselling BD 4:1 in the UK. PS3 is going to make a big difference, but why would it go to 90% BD? Also, Europeans (unlike the Japanese) have been big adopters of the Xbox 360.
The 4:1 number being bandied about came from a report on the sales in the UK that showed 10,000 total discs sold in November and December (both formats launched in November 2006 in the UK as I understand it), with 4:1 in favor of HD DVD.

With 200,000+ PS3s landing on the UK market in two weeks though, I suspect this will change dramatically.

Actually, I appreciate your replies because they essentially back up the point I was trying to make . . . namely that assuming that 'innovators' and 'early adopters' mimic or behave like the 'early majority' or 'late majority' is not necessarily a safe assumption to make. If they differ in the way, manner, speed, or decision criteria that they use to make purchases A/V gear, it is a fairly safe bet that they differ in other attributes as well (such as what kind of movies they want ot watch or purchase, what their price sensitive points are, how "good" is "good enough"). So, in much the same way that it is not "safe" to assume that innovators and early adopters will favor content being provided by HD-DVD over BR, it is also not safe to assume that said innovators or early addopters will favor content being provided by BR.

Which seems to be the assumption most people here are making (i.e., BR has more 'current release content' -> innovators and early adopters will buy BR players -> early majority will see that innovators and early adopters have purchased BR players and cross the chasm). What is silent in this train of thought (or series of assumptions) is what the chasms or gaps are between said innovators and early adopters and the early majority. Specifically, are the attributes that influence innovators and early adopters meaningful to the early majority. Or said a different way . . . if innovators and early adopters bought BR or HD-DVD players because it was high/low cost, had current/classic releases, had better perceived/actual technical specifications . . . . will any (or which) of those attributes (are) important enough to early majority buyers to "cross the chasm"?

I must admit, I am a little confused by your post, mainly because on the one hand you seem to be saying "no they're not alike" or that we can't make the same assumptions about the groups and why they bought technology . . . but then you seem to follow that up with assertions or assumptions of your own as to how this will (not might) play out. For example, to my assertion that innovators or early adopters likely don't have the same tastes in movies as the early majority, you replied that their taste in movies has nothing to do with their taste in toys . . . which, given the current content divisions would seem to be at least a little "off". I mean, I realize there will always be people who just want the new gadget . . . but I believe that many if not most will stop, pause for a moment and even if it is a cursory evaluation think "which movies do I want?". Even if that assumption on my part is not true, ok, so their taste in movies and toys don't have anything to do with one another . . . how does that refute my point, namely that innovators and early adopters don't necessarily value the same attributes of early majority buyers? If anything, I see your comment as supporting my view . . . that trying to draw if->then type conclusions here is a very risky business.

The model that talks about innovators/pioneers; early adopters and crossing the chasm is an often used method to predict adoption rate for new devices, it has a farily large history of previous devices to fall back on, from toasters, washing machines, refrigerators, so it is generally a well regarded business tool.

What seems to be happening with new technology is that the timeframes are severely constricted now compared to the past (meaning they happen much faster, and fade out much faster), but the shape of the curve seems to be the same.

Innovators (o/w called early early adopters) are often right and often wrong because they tend to buy more new toys --- there's very few of them for obvious reasons --- they are paying much more for these toys than the general public would, if you think of them as your testers for new toys, that wouldn't be too far from the truth --- they're in it because they enjoy poking at things, not because they like to argue. The arguing part is just a by product of the internet age when people sit around with free time and a keyboard at hand, face to face, much of this would never happen.

Fozziwig,

As the Blu-ray library grows a growing proportion of PS3 owners will start to buy Blu-ray movies. Casino Royale will bring in a few; The 'Pirates' movies will bring in a few more; The 'Spider-man' movies will bring in a few more and so on.

That is speculation on your part. However, read what he said. Only 22% buy movies consistently. Studios dont particularly care about the person who buys 1 movie or buys 2 blockbusters, because those people dont represent a revenue stream.

I still fail to see what it is that is causing a person to choose HD DVD over Blu-ray if studio support is considered. For example:

Blu-ray only:
Casino Royale
Night At The Museum
Cars (and all future Pixar HD releases)
Pirates 1 & 2 (and part 3 by Xmas 07)
spider-man 1 & 2 (and part 3 by Xmas 07)
Pursuit of Happyness

Please dont use your tastes to question other people. Off your supposed wonder list, the only movies that I would be remotely interested in buying are the Pirates movies.

On the other hand, I would easily buy 6 of the 7 movies just announced by Universal. So I could ask why anyone would chose BD. Taste in movies is not a criteria for declaring a winner.

Please dont use your tastes to question other people. Off your supposed wonder list, the only movies that I would be remotely interested in buying are the Pirates movies.

I mean that's the point isn't it? I don't mind owning Casablanca or Spartacus or Searchers, or even Black Dahlia and Good Sheperd, but I don't pretend to use my taste in movies as a way to predict future sales, and neither should anyone else here.

However, movies that do well in the box office tend to sell more, and that historical fact does not change regardless of individual preferences.

I co-chaired the Blu-ray vs. HD DVD and the winner is... conference with Andy at CES this year and his two major pointes were the Sony claim of 1 million PS 3 sales and that you can't watch BD exclusive titles on HD DVD players. Overall most thought HD DVD won the debate.

CES sells an audio CD of the conference for any one who is interested.

I also co-chaired a simular conference at the DVD convention in LA.

-Robert

Fozziwig,

Please dont use your tastes to question other people. Off your supposed wonder list, the only movies that I would be remotely interested in buying are the Pirates movies.

I don't recall saying they were to my tastes, Some I like, others I don't and I haven't even seen Pursuit Of Happyness!

My 'wonder list' was simply a selection of current and forthcoming titles that were very successful theatrically and I felt these would have a strong influence on any HD format buying decision.

You disagree. That is your opinion.

As I don't currently possess a time machine would all posters please keep in mind that any comments I may make about future events are, indeed, speculation.

Other posters may have the use of a time machine, I can't say, but if they don't then any comments they make about the future (yes, even George) should also be considered speculation. :)

heck, I admit mine are speculative.

DVD Forum is in talks to include region coding in HD DVD :p
Awesome, means another studio might be in the works.

I mean that's the point isn't it? I don't mind owning Casablanca or Spartacus or Searchers, or even Black Dahlia and Good Sheperd, but I don't pretend to use my taste in movies as a way to predict future sales, and neither should anyone else here.

However, movies that do well in the box office tend to sell more, and that historical fact does not change regardless of individual preferences.

Just to reiterate and clear up a growing misconception:

My actual view of these titles in brackets.

Blu-ray only:
Casino Royale (liked a lot)
Night At The Museum (haven't seen - not too interested)
Cars (and all future Pixar HD releases) (like most Pixar. haven't seen Cars)
Pirates 1 & 2 (and part 3 by Xmas 07) (Pirates 1 was OK. No.2 was weak)
spider-man 1 & 2 (and part 3 by Xmas 07) (liked Spidey 1. Spidey 2 was OK)
Pursuit of Happyness (Haven't seen)

This is a list of films that have done very well at the box office and in previous DVD releases (where applicable). This is not a list of my favourite films!!

Comprende? :rolleyes:

He is not asking what your favorite movies are. He is making a valid point that big blockbusters in theaters tend to sell more when they are released for home and rentals. Why do you think Blockbusters and Netflix stock up on big blockbuster movies when they are released, its because the masses want to see them. How can you not see this point?

<-- is going to laugh when in the end the two formats will be out and fighting and improving like AMD v. Intel have been for the last 20 years.

I co-chaired the Blu-ray vs. HD DVD and the winner is... conference with Andy at CES this year and his two major pointes were the Sony claim of 1 million PS 3 sales and that you can't watch BD exclusive titles on HD DVD players. Overall most thought HD DVD won the debate.

CES sells an audio CD of the conference for any one who is interested.

I also co-chaired a simular conference at the DVD convention in LA.

-Robert

As I said in articles I wrote before and after CES, I could see little in the way of a strategy for HD DVD as a result of CES.

I saw a clear strategy from the BDA: use content to build format adoption leading to a tipping point.

The nearest thing to a strategy I saw from Microsoft/Toshiba was to sell cheap players and hope that sales lead the studios to change their minds. This hasn't happened yet, and Sony and Samsung are taking steps to move into competitive pricing.

Right now, it looks to me as though there is a desire building among retailers and studios to finish the format war so that adoption can really take hold. This can only enhance the desire to find the tipping point and make it happen.

I see any number of things that can happen that will further tip the scales to Blu-ray. I can't think of similar opportunities.

My question for you:

What can Microsoft/Toshiba realistically do now to turn the tide?

He is not asking what your favorite movies are. He is making a valid point that big blockbusters in theaters tend to sell more when they are released for home and rentals. Why do you think Blockbusters and Netflix stock up on big blockbuster movies when they are released, its because the masses want to see them. How can you not see this point?

Not sure if you were talking to me but I do agree with this and have never said otherwise.

That's one of the major advantages that Blu-ray has. In recent times more of the biggest hits belong to Blu-ray exclusive studios. This is what I believe ultimately will decide things in Blu-ray's favour.

What can Microsoft/Toshiba realistically do now to turn the tide?


They could do lots of stuff. They could include an HD DVD drive in every xbox they sold from now on, for example. Microsoft could buy another BD movie studio and make it HD DVD, as another example. There are lots of things that are possible, it's just a question of how bad they judge the situation to be, and what they are willing to do.

From outward appearances, it looks like they think they can win buy holding BD to a 67% market share until they can get the prices down on imported players. The numbers are so small now, that they can easily catch up when the volume crowd starts making their choice.

skogan

The assumption of a permanent cost advantage in HD DVD players is a doubtful one. Whatever premium or yield concerns there is with the blu-ray pickup over the HD DVD pickup are engineering issues that typically disappears over time.

We've all been around enough to know that the CE boxes we buy have BOMs that can be a small fraction of what we pay for them and that a big chunk goes towards R&D and marketing.

rlsmith,

Right now, it looks to me as though there is a desire building among retailers and studios to finish the format war so that adoption can really take hold.

You are probably right, but do you really want corporations deciding the outcome? How would you have felt if DIVX won, simply because it was what the corporations wanted?

They could do lots of stuff. They could include an HD DVD drive in every xbox they sold from now on, for example.
That won't work. There's too many units in the wild without HD DVD drives, which means they still can't upgrade their game discs to HD DVD, and without the ability to do that they're just increasing the cost of production without increasing the capabilities of the system in a meaningful way.

Game consoles aren't like standalone units where you can just upgrade and obsolesce them. Witness the spectacular failure of the Sega CD unit for a perfect example of this phenomenon.

I would not pin hopes on this happening; the reason Microsoft didn't include an HD DVD drive in the first place was because they felt it would price them out of the market (in similar fashion to what many detractors speak of the PS3). Going back and doing so retroactively would not only make them out to be liars, but it will not materially change the capabilities of the Xbox 360 as a gaming platform since no games could be released on HD DVD without sacrificing 98% of the current install base.

Microsoft could buy another BD movie studio and make it HD DVD, as another example. There are lots of things that are possible, it's just a question of how bad they judge the situation to be, and what they are willing to do.
They could, but while Microsoft has a lot of buying power and are a very visible company, big studios cost more than even Microsoft could afford (not to mention they've been fastidious about staying out of areas that are generally outside of their core competency of software).

Extremely unlikely, to say the least. :)

From outward appearances, it looks like they think they can win buy holding BD to a 67% market share until they can get the prices down on imported players. The numbers are so small now, that they can easily catch up when the volume crowd starts making their choice.
This one at least I give credence to. The question is, is there actually a substantial cost differential between Blu-ray and HD DVD in terms of component production cost, and to what ends would Toshiba or anyone else decide to gut their own profits on HD DVD. It is not in the natural order of things for companies to choose to make less money.

If there IS a noticable difference in production cost (noticeable to me would be $100US of actual component cost difference or more), then I could see HD DVD being able to dip lower than Blu-ray for hardware pricing without hurting bottom lines. Unfortunately, I don't see how there can be such a huge disparity in cost. The two formats are more similar than different in hardware capability despite the general incompatibility of the discs, so I would expect the real cost to be roughly equal aside from royalties and perhaps somewhat more expensive diodes for Blu-ray.

skogan

The assumption of a permanent cost advantage in HD DVD players is a doubtful one. Whatever premium or yield concerns there is with the blu-ray pickup over the HD DVD pickup are engineering issues that typically disappears over time.

We've all been around enough to know that the CE boxes we buy have BOMs that can be a small fraction of what we pay for them and that a big chunk goes towards R&D and marketing.

I agree they are not permanent.

But beyond that, (depending on who one is talking to,) BD may want to keep prices high on their players to avoid what happened to DVD. Bill Hunt believes this is one reason people should support Blu-ray. While HD DVD, on the other hand, wants to drive prices as low as they can go, and doesn't care if we have DVD all over again. This relates to the use of foreign labor.

So there is a real question if the goal of the BDA is to protect the profitability of it's CE companies, at the expense of price to the consumers.

Icemage,

to what ends would Toshiba or anyone else decide to gut their own profits on HD DVD. It is not in the natural order of things for companies to choose to make less money.

That isnt true if they believe there is a bigger payoff in the end. Sony is taking a loss on the PS3 because of the potential payoff. The "winner" here gets money off patents and royalties, so they might be willing to lose a lot of money before giving up.

It's a fair question. It comes down to the extremely low numbers of HD players sold so far. In the major countries fewer than 5,000 standalone have been sold in total - the actual figures reported are:

HD DVD 3407
Blu-ray 1215
Total 4622


Not sure what you are including in your HD DVD stand alone player sales figure, but my company alone sole more than 3407 HD DVD players.

-Robert

Not sure what you are including in your HD DVD stand alone player sales figure, but my company alone sole more than 3407 HD DVD players.

-Robert

In Europe????? I don't think so.

From Video Business:

Panelists: No end yet to high-def war (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6422896.html)


Vito Mandato "led his speech with the disclaimer that his views may not represent the views of Paramount."

Industry sources say both BD and HD DVD stand-alone player sales were about equal in February.
Iger refuses to name BD winner of format war
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6422096.html?industryid=43291&industry=Retail

Guys, Sony won the war twice already! They said so themselves!

But then again Universal goes neutral @ CES 2008! So... the war ends next Januay.

Now you say 3-4 months????

Make up your minds already!!

Iger refuses to name BD winner of format war
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6422096.html?industryid=43291&industry=Retail
Actually, he "refused" to give a time frame for the end of the format war in general. No where do I see any comments as to him categorically refusing to say Blu Ray would be the winner, but considering Disney is not at the moment producing any HD DVDs, logic would dictate management expects BD to win at the end, unless you believe corporations prefer to support losing causes just for fun...
Iger said high-def TV sales are key to driving the new high-def disc formats.

He predicted high-def disc would take over DVD once a winner emerges, but he backed away from predicting when the format war would end. He also didn’t specifically name Blu-ray Disc as the eventual winner, though Disney is in the Blu-ray camp.

Actually, he "refused" to give a time frame for the end of the format war in general. No where do I see any comments as to him categorically refusing to say Blu Ray would be the winner, but considering Disney is not at the moment producing any HD DVDs, logic would dictate management expects BD to win at the end, unless you believe corporations prefer to support losing causes just for fun...

Man the twisted pretzel logic, stop spinning.

We can only go by what he said. Thats it, simple. No "infering" no "he meant this" no "Logic would dictate"

That won't work. There's too many units in the wild without HD DVD drives, which means they still can't upgrade their game discs to HD DVD, and without the ability to do that they're just increasing the cost of production without increasing the capabilities of the system in a meaningful way.

The question was, is there anything MS/Tosh could do, not if I thought they would do it. I was just throwing out some quick examples of things that could happen that would shake this whole thing up. I have no idea what actually will happen, though I'm suspect of the idea that MS would integrate the add-on, just like you are.




They could, but while Microsoft has a lot of buying power and are a very visible company, big studios cost more than even Microsoft could afford (not to mention they've been fastidious about staying out of areas that are generally outside of their core competency of software).



Ms has a larger market cap than Sony. If Sony can buy a movie studio, then I suspect MS could as well. In fact, MS's market cap is about 4 times larger than the entire Disney corporation. So I have little trouble imagining that they could buy a major studio if they wanted, even though I don't think they will.

Guys, Sony won the war twice already! They said so themselves!

But then again Universal goes neutral @ CES 2008! So... the war ends next Januay.

Now you say 3-4 months????

Make up your minds already!!

Well what we need to do is define the point of victory and defeat. I would say that when one side achieves 90%+ of the HD disc market then for the other side the position is irretrievable. That means defeat. It may limp on for a while but it is effectively dead as a Next Gen HD format contender.

In Japan Blu-ray has over 90% of the market now.

In Europe HD DVD currently leads 80:20 (on tiny sales) but PS3 is about to arrive in Europe and I expect that within weeks the market there will be 90%+ Blu-ray.

That leaves North America and I expect Blu-ray to take 90%+ of that market by Christmas 2007.

That would mean the war finally being won by Blu-ray in approx. 9 months from now. It could happen sooner but I think that HD DVD support in the US is strong and will hold out a little longer than some believe.

Now, apart from Japan, that is speculation on my part but it's not wild and crazy speculation. It's based on me looking at the figures and the strengths and weaknesses of both sides.

I'm not trying to convince you that I'm right because I cannot possibly know. I can only know I'm right about events that have already happened. I'm just telling you what I think may well happen in the near future.

Icemage,

That isnt true if they believe there is a bigger payoff in the end. Sony is taking a loss on the PS3 because of the potential payoff. The "winner" here gets money off patents and royalties, so they might be willing to lose a lot of money before giving up.
I absolutely agree.

The problem is that Toshiba is the only manufacturer that has a stake in the HD DVD pot. I have no doubt that Toshiba can and probably will do anything possible to keep HD DVD alive, including slashing prices down to zero or even slightly negative profit, but the more they do that, the farther away they push other manufacturers.

While Toshiba's pricing is a nice perk for consumers in the short term, alienating every other manufacturer is not a way to gain widespread acceptance for a format.

If I were a Chinese CE I'd be asking some serious questions right now. If they went into their original announcements expecting to compete against a $400 or $500 unit, and suddenly they're hearing rumors of a $299 price point or lower, they must be awfully ticked off. That is a huge difference in profit margin, and if in fact Toshiba drops the street pricing (not MSRP), to sub-$300, I think it's a foregone conclusion that the Chinese CEs will be extremely hesitant to enter the market, knowing that Toshiba can always undercut them even at zero profitability because of expected returns on royalties.

From Video Business:

Panelists: No end yet to high-def war (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6422896.html)Industry sources say both BD and HD DVD stand-alone player sales were about equal in February.
I wish they would be specific if it is dollar volume or number of units - and give us the number. They seem to know, why don't they tell us?

Not sure what you are including in your HD DVD stand alone player sales figure, but my company alone sole more than 3407 HD DVD players.

-Robert

http://www.cinemotion.biz/informacion.php?iinfo=75

(UK, France & Germany)

HDDVD 3407
Blu-ray 1215
Total 4622


That is only for UK, France and Germany. In my calculations I assumed a figure of 25,000 HD DVD players including X-Box 360 add-ons.

However if you have some alternative figures I can work with then I'm happy to hear them.

I presume you know what percentage share your sales represent for the whole market? Which means you would be able to give a reaonable estimate for the HD DVD player market in Europe. You might also have a better idea on the X-box add-on figure.

If so then I would be genuinely interested in your views on how the market will pan out following the PS3 launch with your market share projections.

rlsmith,



You are probably right, but do you really want corporations deciding the outcome? How would you have felt if DIVX won, simply because it was what the corporations wanted?

In this case, I really don't care which format wins. No body I know does either. We just want something to happen.

This was also the clear preference of the online user communities. There was a big "One Format" campaign a few years ago, an effort which of course failed.

Divx is a quite different story of course.

If I were a Chinese CE I'd be asking some serious questions right now. If they went into their original announcements expecting to compete against a $400 or $500 unit, and suddenly they're hearing rumors of a $299 price point or lower, they must be awfully ticked off. That is a huge difference in profit margin, and if in fact Toshiba drops the street pricing (not MSRP), to sub-$300, I think it's a foregone conclusion that the Chinese CEs will be extremely hesitant to enter the market, knowing that Toshiba can always undercut them even at zero profitability because of expected returns on royalties.

now why would Toshiba bleed money to stop the Chinese CEs to helping them to collect royalty cheque?

now why would Toshiba bleed money to stop the Chinese CEs to helping them to collect royalty cheque?
Because they know the Chinese cannot produce units at a profit at the price point that Toshiba needs HD DVD to be at to stay in contention.

Toshiba is in an unenviable position right now. Their price point is being pushed hard by the BDA. They can stand pat on their current price on the HD-A2 and watch their price advantage melt away (and with it any hope of standalone hardware sales advantages), or they can drop their pricing and push the Chinese away and start losing money (at least relative to where they are now, whether you believe they are profitable at $370 or not).

Toshiba has no other options at this point. One of those two must happen. The Chinese units are not here yet, and if the Toshiba HD-A2 pricing falls any further, they probably never will arrive.

Because they know the Chinese cannot produce units at a profit at the price point that Toshiba needs HD DVD to be at to stay in contention.

Toshiba is in an unenviable position right now. Their price point is being pushed hard by the BDA. They can stand pat on their current price on the HD-A2 and watch their price advantage melt away (and with it any hope of standalone hardware sales advantages), or they can drop their pricing and push the Chinese away and start losing money (at least relative to where they are now, whether you believe they are profitable at $370 or not).

Toshiba has no other options at this point. One of those two must happen. The Chinese units are not here yet, and if the Toshiba HD-A2 pricing falls any further, they probably never will arrive.


if Toshiba's pricing falls any further, they wouldnt need Chinese units wouldnt they ;)

Actually folks have it backwards. It is Toshiba that is pushing Sony's prices down, while rest of the BDA sits around twiddling their thumbs. It's funny to see Andy Parsons who works for Pioneer, a company that has almost nothing to gain from BDA and whose company probably has done very little to further the BDA cause do all the trash talking :)

Andy should be more critical of the abject failure that Pio is turning out to be - totally irrelevant. At least Toshiba is putting up a worthy fight. So is Sony, MSFT, Universal and of course Fox, LG and Disney. Pio is a laughing stock in the format war.....until now.

if Toshiba's pricing falls any further, they wouldnt need Chinese units wouldnt they ;)
True, except if they choose that path then they're back to being the only producers of HD DVD players, with every other manufacturer on the planet arrayed against them by default.

Toshiba is a big company, it's true, but how much manufacturing capacity can they muster? And if so, where are all the royalties coming from? Toshiba paying themselves to produce HD DVD units at little to no profit? For what purpose?

If Toshiba really does end up doing this, HD DVD is doomed, because once such a decision becomes obvious, every other manufacturer on the planet is going to drop HD DVD like last week's roadkill.

So far, signs point to them remaining sane and standing pat on their pricing, which gives them a fighting chance to get the Chinese players still (though it's still debatable that the Chinese want in when the street pricing of the HD-A2 remains so far below MSRP). If you're an HD DVD fan, you had best pray that I'm wrong about how much it costs someone who is not Toshiba to manufacture an HD DVD standalone, because personally I don't see any margin there for anyone to want to produce a unit right now for HD DVD.

Icemage,

This bud's for you. Drink deeply and ponder what it says.

The price cut announcement came in the same week that the Steering Committee of the DVD Forum, on which Sony sits, gave formal approval to specifications for a “China-only” version of the HD DVD format.

It also approved the licensing of the basic DVD specs for incorporation into the China-only HD DVD formats, pending the formation of an appropriate licensing entity.

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT difference between the China-only HD DVD and the version used in the rest of the world is the codec used to encode content.

In the rest of the world, HD DVD supports VC-1, H.264 and MPEG2. The China-only version supports only the Chinese-developed Advanced Video System (AVS).

In nearly every other respect, including the physical specifications of the disc, the interactive layer and the optics, the two versions are identical.

The purpose of the China-only version is to spare Chinese manufacturers the licensing fees associated with the global codecs on decks sold in China and to help propel China into the ranks of technology developers, rather than simply manufacturers.

But manufacturing HD DVD players they will be. And once those production lines are up and running, swapping out the codecs for their outside OEM clients is no big deal.

In other words, HD DVD just secured the inside track on a potentially vast new market. The economies of scale that could result from China’s embrace of HD DVD is likely to have significant impact on retail prices in every market that sources its electronics from China—that is, the rest of the world.

Anyone for China as the land of HD DVD only. ASJ, Japan is chump change compared to China.

Anyone for China as the land of HD DVD only. ASJ, Japan is chump change compared to China.

It would be if software piracy wasn't such a huge problem in China (http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/search/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1000446920).

The system operates with awe-inspiring speed: within a few days after (and often before) a film opens in the U.S., China's pirate manufacturers will have secured a master copy, subtitled the film in Chinese, and distributed hundreds of thousands of illicit disks to every corner of the country.

China's DVD buyers love the prices too: about one dollar for a quality video; three dollars for a complete disk with all the bonus features. Those who wish to save space can buy "double features" with different movies on each side of the disk for about two dollars.

The problem for Hollywood home video executives is that virtually all of these transactions involve pirated disks, meaning that not a single cent, or yuan, as the case may be, has flowed back to the copyright owners' coffers.

EDIT: Pre-emptively before anyone points out the above article is 3 years old, here's a fresh look at piracy in China today:

MSN article on Feb. 27, 2007 (http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/02/27/70359.aspx)
For all the public flogging and private government meetings about the problem of content piracy in China, perhaps the best illustration of the problem can be measured by the remarks of another American I heard at a lunch here in Beijing.

The statement went something like "Piracy is terrible; so terrible that I plan on limiting my DVD purchases to only 100 this year."

The remark was followed by peels of laughter.

Why all the chuckling? Because in China, pirated DVD's sell for around $1.50 – if even that much – and are not bought furtively out of the back of some guy's trunk. They are sold in plain sight everywhere: in expatriate-oriented video stores and at Western supermarkets, but mostly to countless Chinese who find it's an easy way to see big-budget movies at a low-budget price.

Icemage,

I respect you and your opinions, but piracy here is irrelevant. Think of all the players that the Chinese are going to make, and cheaply. Plus to an extent the movies.

This is the reason why no chinese player has been announced. They were waiting for this agreement. Now we will see them.

This also shows how ignorant we are. All the pontificating about toshiba and price pressure and all that was simply wrong. And it shows that when asj and beatboy and the like spout how things cant change because they cant see it and BD is stomping, blah blah blah, This little announcement shows how potentially wrong they are. They never saw this coming, and who knows what else is going on, on both sides, that we dont know about.

They will deny it, but this is a significant development. The Chinese now have NO reason to ever go blue ray. Over a billion person untapped market - pretty much all for HD DVD.

I respect you and your opinions, but piracy here is irrelevant. Think of all the players that the Chinese are going to make, and cheaply. Plus to an extent the movies.
On the contrary. The Chinese are already manufacturing some of the high definition units we see on the market today. Not under their own brands, but certainly in Chinese factories.

Secondly, piracy isn't irrelevant. Hollywood studios hate it because they don't get paid. Software vendors hate it because they don't get paid. What are you going to put on those discs, and how are you going to make sure that you get paid for them? Doing business in China with software of any sort is madness when the price of goods far outstrips the earnings of the average person.

This is the reason why no chinese player has been announced. They were waiting for this agreement. Now we will see them.
Keep telling yourself that if it makes you sleep better at night. :) The rest of us realize that this announcement doesn't mean a hill of beans as far as the rest of the world is concerned. Studios know they cannot make money in China. Software vendors also know they cannot make money in China. So why so much buzz about discs that contain nothing? Why would China even bother to adopt HD DVD when China already has its own homebrewed high definition format (HVD) in production that costs a fraction of the price of HD DVD or Blu-ray? Hint: It's not content that's going to win in that market.

This also shows how ignorant we are. All the pontificating about toshiba and price pressure and all that was simply wrong. And it shows that when asj and beatboy and the like spout how things cant change because they cant see it and BD is stomping, blah blah blah, This little announcement shows how potentially wrong they are. They never saw this coming, and who knows what else is going on, on both sides, that we dont know about.

They will deny it, but this is a significant development. The Chinese now have NO reason to ever go blue ray. Over a billion person untapped market - pretty much all for HD DVD.
Wow. Assumptions out the yin-yang (pardon the pun :) ). China has no reasons to adopt HD DVD. It may have cheaper players than Blu-ray for the moment, but there remains zero incentive to make HD DVD players due to cost factors.

China's per capita income is $1,740 per annum (http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/gyzg/t268200.htm). Tell me again how a market with an average demographic income this low is going to jump on a high tech bandwagon from a single company that costs more than what they've already got, and I might concede that you have a point.

Man the twisted pretzel logic, stop spinning.

We can only go by what he said. Thats it, simple. No "infering" no "he meant this" no "Logic would dictate"
Did you even read the article he linked?!? Can you point to me where a direct quote from Iger said that he did not believe BD will win? Here is the paragragh again:
Iger said high-def TV sales are key to driving the new high-def disc formats.

He predicted high-def disc would take over DVD once a winner emerges, but he backed away from predicting when the format war would end. He also didn’t specifically name Blu-ray Disc as the eventual winner, though Disney is in the Blu-ray camp.

Iger talks about the HD optical format in general, and HDTVs being the driving force behind it. WayneL tries to "spin" it by saying "Iger refuses to name BD winner of format war" even though what he actually refused to do was predict WHEN the format battle will end. So somehow Iger "didn't specifically name BD" while talking about the entire HD format war becomes "he refused"???

Perhaps you should direct your post to WayneL instead, as I just pointed out what was actually said or not said.

It doesn't matter you and I both know China makes the cheap dvd players. This was also before the Blu-ray Amazon sale too, sign of desperation? When these guys get cheap HD DVD players into Wallmart some studios will go netural and then we can just let the consumers duke it out. Plus MS is working with them to make the low end players with Windows CE. It will get interesting this summer.

Actually folks have it backwards. It is Toshiba that is pushing Sony's prices down, while rest of the BDA sits around twiddling their thumbs. It's funny to see Andy Parsons who works for Pioneer, a company that has almost nothing to gain from BDA and whose company probably has done very little to further the BDA cause do all the trash talking :)

Andy should be more critical of the abject failure that Pio is turning out to be - totally irrelevant. At least Toshiba is putting up a worthy fight. So is Sony, MSFT, Universal and of course Fox, LG and Disney. Pio is a laughing stock in the format war.....until now.The only thing Pio has to gain from BDA here is this...

Significant Progress Made Toward Creation of Joint Blu-ray Disc(TM) Patent License (http://www.cnw.ca/fr/releases/archive/February2007/21/c2834.html)

Significant progress has been made in identifying licensing terms for Blu-ray Disc(TM) products such as players, recorders, drives, software, recordable discs and prerecorded discs. Participating companies include CyberLink Corporation; Dell Inc.; Hewlett-Packard Company; Hitachi Ltd.; Koninklijke Philips Electronics N.V.; LG Electronics Inc.; Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., Ltd. (Panasonic); Mitsubishi Electric Corporation; Pioneer Corporation; Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.; Sanyo Electric Co., Ltd.; Sharp Corporation; Sonic Solutions; Sony Corporation; TDK Corporation; Victor Company of Japan, Ltd.; and Warner Home Video Inc.Every BD player sold means revenue to Pioneer, without actually working for it...

True, except if they choose that path then they're back to being the only producers of HD DVD players, with every other manufacturer on the planet arrayed against them by default..
Ah, so only BD is allowed to manufacturers at different price points. If BD subsidizes a low end player, or gives players away for free with their PS3, that has no effect on manufacturers. But if HD DVD does anything remotely similar, nobody, on either the high, middle or low end, will make HD DVD players. Is that your contention?

The only people making BD players right now are the BD founders, and these are people that have IP in the format. The truely neutral CE companies will be making players in both formats, or universal players. Heck, even some BD founders will be making universal players.

Sony was never going to make an HD DVD player. The only reason they make a BD player at this time is because they have IP in blu-ray. It has nothing to do with subisdized prices. The same is true with the other BD units.



Toshiba is a big company, it's true, but how much manufacturing capacity can they muster? And if so, where are all the royalties coming from? Toshiba paying themselves to produce HD DVD units at little to no profit? For what purpose?
..
Toshiba has unlimited manufacturing capacity, because they will have the chinese manufacture the units and slap their name on them. They do this to get the profits of the software. Insert razor blade/ razor analogy here.


If Toshiba really does end up doing this, HD DVD is doomed, because once such a decision becomes obvious, every other manufacturer on the planet is going to drop HD DVD like last week's roadkill.
..

Once again, you have a double standard. BD companies aren't afraid to compete at different price points. They don't mind Sony talking away 80% of the player market with their low priced PS3. But when it comes to HD DVD, a low end unit automatically means that no one will make middle or high end unit.

Did you even read the article he linked?!? Can you point to me where a direct quote from Iger said that he did not believe BD will win? Here is the paragragh again:


Iger talks about the HD optical format in general, and HDTVs being the driving force behind it. WayneL tries to "spin" it by saying "Iger refuses to name BD winner of format war" even though what he actually refused to do was predict WHEN the format battle will end. So somehow Iger "didn't specifically name BD" while talking about the entire HD format war becomes "he refused"???

Perhaps you should direct your post to WayneL instead, as I just pointed out what was actually said or not said.
Given that every other BD shill has declared the war is over and BD won, I say he refused to do that.

In Europe????? I don't think so.


:D :D

True, except if they choose that path then they're back to being the only producers of HD DVD players, with every other manufacturer on the planet arrayed against them by default.

Toshiba is a big company, it's true, but how much manufacturing capacity can they muster? And if so, where are all the royalties coming from? Toshiba paying themselves to produce HD DVD units at little to no profit? For what purpose?

If Toshiba really does end up doing this, HD DVD is doomed, because once such a decision becomes obvious, every other manufacturer on the planet is going to drop HD DVD like last week's roadkill.

So far, signs point to them remaining sane and standing pat on their pricing, which gives them a fighting chance to get the Chinese players still (though it's still debatable that the Chinese want in when the street pricing of the HD-A2 remains so far below MSRP). If you're an HD DVD fan, you had best pray that I'm wrong about how much it costs someone who is not Toshiba to manufacture an HD DVD standalone, because personally I don't see any margin there for anyone to want to produce a unit right now for HD DVD.

The PS3 and the new Sony BD player pretty much dooms any BD hardware. Which makes Andy Parsons statements on why BD should win sound even more stupid. Pio's only hope is to make an HD DVD player or a combo player. Pio makes money from hardware and not IP, and any IP they have in BD is probably insignificant.

The PS3 and the new Sony BD player pretty much dooms any BD hardware. Which makes Andy Parsons statements on why BD should win sound even more stupid. Pio's only hope is to make an HD DVD player or a combo player. Pio makes money from hardware and not IP, and any IP they have in BD is probably insignificant.
How is Pioneer going to make more money selling a $300 HD DVD player instead of a $500-600 Blu-ray player (the same applies to any CE, btw)... ?

How is Pioneer going to make more money selling a $300 HD DVD player instead of a $500-600 Blu-ray player (the same applies to any CE, btw)... ?

I would guess HD DVD has lower production cost(dont know how much). but the point you should focus on is a dual format player. They can charge more for it because it aint gonna compete in the same ballgame as PS3.

It becomes a little clearer why the BD Parsons in this world are frantically trying to declare the war over. The approval of the HD-AVS (?) standard for China, which is easily manufactured for HD-DVD marks the beginning of the end. This will result in player costs BD cannot match. It's too early to cheer, but we can see the end of the war and it is HD-DVD.

Ah, so only BD is allowed to manufacturers at different price points. If BD subsidizes a low end player, or gives players away for free with their PS3, that has no effect on manufacturers. But if HD DVD does anything remotely similar, nobody, on either the high, middle or low end, will make HD DVD players. Is that your contention?


I doubt Sony or any of the BD manufacturers will ever sell a standalone player that does not make a profit. The only situation I see that the BDA will compete in price is if it looks like it will lose the war, which so far isn't happening.

My take on the BDA's strategy is that is heavily dependant on PS3 as a means to build marketshare until standalones can be manufactured at more attractive pricepoints to general consumers and still make a profit. At this point in time, a PS3 customer is highly unlikely to purchase any standalone player, but when standalones reach "the magic price point," I would argue that a PS3 customer would be more likely to purchase a BD player (especially if he/she has purchased BD movies already) simply because he/she is already familar with BD.

Ah, so only BD is allowed to manufacturers at different price points. If BD subsidizes a low end player, or gives players away for free with their PS3, that has no effect on manufacturers. But if HD DVD does anything remotely similar, nobody, on either the high, middle or low end, will make HD DVD players. Is that your contention?
Toshiba already makes a few different units at different price points. My contention is that the HD-A2 is already the definition of low end, unless you'd like to strip away 1080i support and DVD upscaling. There's not much less you do feature-wise to make it more low end.

My point is that with the HD-A2, Toshiba sets the bar that all other manufacturers must pass under if they wish to enter the market and compete if they want to be on the low end of the market (as the Chinese CEs will want to be). If that bar keeps moving down below levels they deem to be worthwhile levels of profitability, they will never enter the market.

The only people making BD players right now are the BD founders, and these are people that have IP in the format. The truely neutral CE companies will be making players in both formats, or universal players. Heck, even some BD founders will be making universal players.
Aside from LG's unit, no company has announced a combo player. LG's unit seems to have been an experiment, as no one else has even hinted they're working on a universal player.

Now, as for the BD founders producing units, I'm sure that has more to do with licensing control and technological secrets. Unless you'd care to assert that HD DVD units cost significantly less than Blu-ray units to produce, I don't see your point.

Sony was never going to make an HD DVD player. The only reason they make a BD player at this time is because they have IP in blu-ray. It has nothing to do with subisdized prices. The same is true with the other BD units.
Aside from the PS3, the evidence suggests that a $600+ price point remains most likely a profitable one. That's not the price point Toshiba is at, though. They're actually somewhere in the vicinity of $300 at the warehouse level for the HD-A2. Do you feel that is even remotely break-even for HD DVD at this point, much less profitable enough to attract a 3rd party CE with no IP invested?

Toshiba has unlimited manufacturing capacity, because they will have the chinese manufacture the units and slap their name on them. They do this to get the profits of the software. Insert razor blade/ razor analogy here.
If this were so easily done, no one would have hardware shortages. The PS3 wouldn't have been delayed for months, Toshiba's shipment of HD-A2s wouldn't have been too late for the holidays, etc. Sure, it's possible to do, but what makes you think this isn't already happening? Factories still have to be retooled and retrained.

Where is the money coming from for all these manufacturing process upgrades?

Once again, you have a double standard. BD companies aren't afraid to compete at different price points. They don't mind Sony talking away 80% of the player market with their low priced PS3. But when it comes to HD DVD, a low end unit automatically means that no one will make middle or high end unit.
You completely misunderstand me. I am sure it is possible for anyone to come in with a high end HD DVD player. Those units don't matter at this time in the grand scheme of things.

The only price point that matters right now is the price of the HD-A2. If the price of $300ish wholesale is too low for a 3rd party manufacturer to be profitable, that's a problem. If Toshiba lowers the HD-A2 down to $299 retail as has been suggested, that's a further problem for the CEs.

The Blu-ray units are still all plausibly profitable, aside from the PS3, which I now push from the category of "undoubtedly subsidized" to perhaps "slightly subsidized" with Sony's recent redesign. The rest of the standalones are all at a $600+ MSRP, and I don't think any of us feel those units are subsidized (if you do, then by default you must feel that Toshiba is heavily subsidizing the HD-A2).

Now it's certainly possible that I am wrong and it costs significantly less than $300 at this time to manufacture, test, package, market, and ship an HD DVD player. I don't think I am, though. Do you?

I would guess HD DVD has lower production cost(dont know how much). but the point you should focus on is a dual format player. They can charge more for it because it aint gonna compete in the same ballgame as PS3.
... so Pioneer, a company with an unknown IP stake in Blu-ray, would lose money at a $500 price point (let's ballpark a warehouse figure of $400), but Toshiba somehow makes money at a ~$300 warehouse price point on a unit that does pretty much exactly the same thing?

How much lower do you really think HD DVD production costs are? Over $100 less? Truly?

Icemage,
This bud's for you. Drink deeply and ponder what it says.
Anyone for China as the land of HD DVD only. ASJ, Japan is chump change compared to China.

You forget that most hardware (blu-ray and HD-dvd) is ALREADY made in China. And I would not classify China as "HD-DVD" simply because discs from the rest of world won't play on China players. It's a completely different animal.

You're hoping that scales of manufacturing will apply to hd-dvd only because of this, but the fact that blu-ray manufactures ALSO in china cancels most of this argument out.

The Chinese HD market (while huge in potential) is not big right now, and by the time it becomes the largest in the world, Blu-ray would have already relegated HD-DVD to a very small niche. So, we would be left with Blu-ray (rest of the world), and China HD (China, probably Taiwan as well, maybe most of Asia other than japan), which would most likely play movies from Blu-ray studios as well.

Pioneer can make money (perhaps) from a combo player at $799 or so. Given the extent to which BD players are now subsidized by Sony and that the PS3 is both the cheapest and best BD player makes it hard for anyone to compete. I can see Pio coming in and competing for the XA2 market with Tosh....

For most hardware vendors, the future is combo players not BD or HD DVD since Sony and Tosh have to volume advantage. Sony on top of that has shown an appetite to subsidize millions of units. At least Tosh limited that to the first 50K units or so only.

I see the Chinese offering a lower cost A2 (if possible) by offering cheaper components such as drives, no SHARC, inferior upconversion, less R&D costs etc....they could squuze out a good hundred dollars from the A2 if they chose. However, even the Chinese should be considering sun $500 combo players as the highest priority. But, as is well known BD blue lasers are in very limited supply and no one other than Sony has much of them....so prices are much higher.

Pio is in dire need of turning their business around and Andy has perhaps already sent his resume to Sony ;)

In case you have missed it, the Chinese are about to manufacture their own variant of HD-DVD for their own market - and it has got to be inexpensive. With a few changes the same unit can do HD-DVD. There is no way BD will match the volume/cost basis of these HD-DVD players.

The question was, is there anything MS/Tosh could do, not if I thought they would do it.

Skogan, I think things should remain realistic. There could be meteor shower and some big meteors could hit and destroy Toshiba's HD DVD facility as well as three of the largest replication plants. And that would put a definitive nail in the HD DVD coffin but since chances are it won’t happen it does not add to the conversation if I wish it (which I don’t) with all my might.

I respect you and your opinions, but piracy here is irrelevant. Think of all the players that the Chinese are going to make, and cheaply. Plus to an extent the movies.


George, you don't get it. This is a different "format" incompatible with the HD DVD format released in the rest of the world. This format is made for China and replaces some of the techs for the rest of the world with home grown license free alternatives. A disk made for a Chinese player won't play in a NA machine because the codecs and stuff will be different, a disk made for the rest of the world won't play in a Chinese only player because it won't have a decoder for AVC or VC-1.

It has nothing to do with manufacturing. Just for the fun of it, look at where the PS3 is manufactured. Mine says made in China in November.

In case you have missed it, the Chinese are about to manufacture their own variant of HD-DVD for their own market - and it has got to be inexpensive. With a few changes the same unit can do HD-DVD. There is no way BD will match the volume/cost basis of these HD-DVD players.

but those changes are what will make it cheaper. The minute you change back the winnings are lost

The Chinese already tried their own red laser variant. I bought a couple of disks with my Helios player around a year ago. I think it's dead now.

The Chinese already tried their own red laser variant. I bought a couple of disks with my Helios player around a year ago. I think it's dead now.

The Chinese government wants China to become more then just a place for slave labour. That is why they keep pushing for Chinese techs. Be it EVD or CHD DVD (for lack of a better name) or anything else. It is all about getting Chinese tech into formats and hopefully eventually outside in the rest of the world.

Will this Chinese version support TL51s, or are those mostly smoke-and-mirrors for HD DVD, or an incompatibility between the 2 formats (besides the codec issue which is said to be the only significant difference)? Seems to me that if HD DVD is going to spin their discs at 1.5x and up their bandwidth, there would be some implications to this other format. That is, if they want to keep them the same in those ways, then they either have to keep the bandwidth the same as now or up what the Chinese format has to be able to do.

--Darin

Pio is in dire need of turning their business around and Andy has perhaps already sent his resume to Sony ;)

Pio just needs to build a better player and charge less for it. Shouldn't be too difficult.

Icemage, Anthony and others,

You dont seem to quite understand the implications, at least as I see it. The is a HD DVD machine for the Chinese market. I have my doubts as to whether the studios will release discs in China on this format.

Quite a few people have said players, including the PS3 are already made in China. Well, all that means is that it is cheaper to make there than elsewhere. However, when those players get made, the chinese pay ALL the liscence fees. Which means they are not as cheap as they could be.

Icemage, you were correct in saying that the chinese had to be concerned about making an economically viable HD DVD player - if they had to pay all the fees. But now, that is changed. They dont have to pay all the fees. Their costs just dropped on the machine.

Now, which is cheaper to make 1 million players or 1 thousand players. Economies of scale says the million players. So now the Chinese can make a million players for their domestic market, and HD DVD players for the rest of the world, and their costs are lower, the unit cost to make a HD DVD player has just been lowered.

With this aggreement, the Chinese WILL be able to make a $199 HD DVD machine and still make money.

ASJ, I want your Kool Aid - why in the world would the chinese make a combo player for their domestic market?

Icemage, Anthony and others,

You dont seem to quite understand the implications, at least as I see it. The is a HD DVD machine for the Chinese market. I have my doubts as to whether the studios will release discs in China on this format.

Quite a few people have said players, including the PS3 are already made in China. Well, all that means is that it is cheaper to make there than elsewhere. However, when those players get made, the chinese pay ALL the liscence fees. Which means they are not as cheap as they could be.

Icemage, you were correct in saying that the chinese had to be concerned about making an economically viable HD DVD player - if they had to pay all the fees. But now, that is changed. They dont have to pay all the fees. Their costs just dropped on the machine.

Now, which is cheaper to make 1 million players or 1 thousand players. Economies of scale says the million players. So now the Chinese can make a million players for their domestic market, and HD DVD players for the rest of the world, and their costs are lower, the unit cost to make a HD DVD player has just been lowered.

With this aggreement, the Chinese WILL be able to make a $199 HD DVD machine and still make money.

ASJ, I want your Kool Aid - why in the world would the chinese make a combo player for their domestic market?


Any idea when these will be at retail? It will be interesting to see the build quality.

PS - Prototypes?

With this agreement, the Chinese WILL be able to make a $199 HD DVD machine and still make money.

no they won't, not even CHD DVD players

Now, which is cheaper to make 1 million players or 1 thousand players. Economies of scale says the million players. So now the Chinese can make a million players for their domestic market, and HD DVD players for the rest of the world, and their costs are lower, the unit cost to make a HD DVD player has just been lowered.

no
1) China is poor and Chinese are poor. Their population is big, but their weqalthy enough population is not.

2) It might be simple to say licenses go away -> make more components->price goes down-> add the licenses but licenses and components are linked. Do you think the same chip/sw created to decode AVS will be the same as the one that does MPEG-2/AVC/VC-1?

3) BD is already selling millions of players, by your comment that should mean BD is much cheaper to make already.

The Chinese markets of Hongkong and Shanghai are by themselves probably bigger than Australia. Do people in China buy luxury goods? Do they buy cars? How many cars are sold in China compared to other countries? That will give you an indicator of the purchasing power....if you can afford a car, I'd say you can afford a $200 piece of CE. That would put it below ipod price range. So, do people in China buy ipods?

I would start my analysis by asking some questions instead of generalizing that China is poor and people are poor and the rich are few. FWIW. Have you been to China? I've been to Beijing, Shanghai and Hongkong in 2004. My daily hotel bill was the cost of an HD DVD player in the US! There were many Chinese people staying there as well. Just my experience....

The there is a very large gulf between the rich and the poor in China, most people can't afford these luxury items, and when they can they just about always buy foreign, more prestige that way. I still don't consider Hong Kong a part of China the attitudes are still very different there compared to the mainland. The rich are very few, as a percentage is concerned, but because of the fact that China has a HUGE populate still translates into a fair number. And Chinese do spend alot of money on impressions/status symbols more so that Westerners, it's very important in business. It's not uncommon for a Chinese to have a Mercedes yet their house is still pretty ******.

I don't mean any offence Plazman, but do you know if you paying the same price as the other people in that hotel? Tiered pricing happens alot over there. Alot of people that stay in those hotels are either 1) from out of China, but still of Chinese descent or 2) Government officials, who don't have to pay anyway.

Picture and sound quality isn't really to a large a concern for Chinese moviegoers anyway, it's self evident you only have to look at how popular VCD was over there and the general bad quality of the DVD copies, which are easily more available than legit copies.

Icemage, Anthony and others,

You dont seem to quite understand the implications, at least as I see it. The is a HD DVD machine for the Chinese market. I have my doubts as to whether the studios will release discs in China on this format.

Quite a few people have said players, including the PS3 are already made in China. Well, all that means is that it is cheaper to make there than elsewhere. However, when those players get made, the chinese pay ALL the liscence fees. Which means they are not as cheap as they could be.

Icemage, you were correct in saying that the chinese had to be concerned about making an economically viable HD DVD player - if they had to pay all the fees. But now, that is changed. They dont have to pay all the fees. Their costs just dropped on the machine.

Now, which is cheaper to make 1 million players or 1 thousand players. Economies of scale says the million players. So now the Chinese can make a million players for their domestic market, and HD DVD players for the rest of the world, and their costs are lower, the unit cost to make a HD DVD player has just been lowered.

With this aggreement, the Chinese WILL be able to make a $199 HD DVD machine and still make money.

ASJ, I want your Kool Aid - why in the world would the chinese make a combo player for their domestic market?

The chinese have their own highdef format. It's called EVD, there were 54 companies that demoed their players in Dec 2006. The machine was developed because the chinese govt did not wish to pay royalties to the DVD forum for evey player made.

These machines are based on the On2 codec which is totally different from VC-1 or AVC.

My prediction is that the only way this can succeed is if the HD DVD and BD rips can be pirated over to the EVD format in these factories that press these red-laser optical disks as hollywood will never release highdef movies in that format.

But the real reason why EVD will fail in China? Chinese will not pay $150 for a player when they are paying $20 for a DVD player, especially when they are just entering the late majority phase of DVD there, having just stopped SVCD.

DVDs of TV series in china is quite interesting. Apparently, they have been taking 352x240 resolution (about 1/4 of DVD) encoded to extremely low bitrates and pushing up to 10 hours of their soap operas onto a single DVD and selling them that way.

I hear these disks sell very well, much better than the full SD resolution versions on multiple disks (because it is much cheaper to have less disks).

It becomes a little clearer why the BD Parsons in this world are frantically trying to declare the war over. The approval of the HD-AVS (?) standard for China, which is easily manufactured for HD-DVD marks the beginning of the end. This will result in player costs BD cannot match. It's too early to cheer, but we can see the end of the war and it is HD-DVD.

This is an Evander Holyfield-Mike Tyson boxing match, and BD is Tyson swinging wildly and trying to use all its (back then) considerable muscle to slam Evander (i.e. HD-DVD) with one or two catastrophic punches. As Holyfield (or any good boxer that knows how to work the body and tire his opponent) HD-DVD is slowly chomping away at the long-term financial prospects of BD as a profitable platform, at which point it will be every CE company for itself. This HD-DVD Chinese player announcement is the boxing equivalent of a head butt or well-placed liver shot against BD that, while not as flashy or devastating as a KO, will be looked back at when the fight is over (with either side winning, losing or tying) and analyzed as the turning point of the struggle. A quiet and subtle turning point, but a turning point nevertheless. Can't wait to see those $199 HD-DVD Chinese players on Walmart come Black Friday ('07 but more likely '08) and the masses trampling each other to get their hands on them.

BTW, at this point I'm going to confess that I'm having way more fun watching the war unfold, taking sides and talking about it than watching movies. The players (Sony, Toshiba, Fox, Universal, Microsoft, etc.), their paid mouthpieces and/or motivated supporters (Amir, Parsons, Beatboy, The Bland, Sony's corporate board, Universal home video management, etc.)... I mean, come on! It's a real-life corporate Jery Springer show, except instead of chairs tossed or punches thrown we have amazon.com statistics and word-of-moth from personal experiences at different BB & CC stores. I love being part of this circus, and the best part is that it comes FREE with the purchase of one or two players from either and/or both formats. :)

This is an Evander Holyfield-Mike Tyson boxing match, and BD is Tyson swinging wildly and trying to use all its (back then) considerable muscle to slam Evander (i.e. HD-DVD) with one or two catastrophic punches. As Holyfield (or any good boxer that knows how to work the body and tire his opponent) HD-DVD is slowly chomping away at the long-term financial prospects of BD as a profitable platform, at which point it will be every CE company for itself. This HD-DVD Chinese player announcement is the boxing equivalent of a head butt or well-placed liver shot against BD that, while not as flashy or devastating as a KO, will be looked back at when the fight is over (with either side winning, losing or tying) and analyzed as the turning point of the struggle. A quiet and subtle turning point, but a turning point nevertheless. Can't wait to see those $199 HD-DVD Chinese players on Walmart come Black Friday ('07 but more likely '08) and the masses trampling each other to get their hands on them.

BTW, at this point I'm going to confess that I'm having way more fun watching the war unfold, taking sides and talking about it than watching movies. The players (Sony, Toshiba, Fox, Universal, Microsoft, etc.), their paid mouthpieces and/or motivated supporters (Amir, Parsons, Beatboy, The Bland, Sony's corporate board, Universal home video management, etc.)... I mean, come on! It's a real-life corporate Jery Springer show, except instead of chairs tossed or punches thrown we have amazon.com statistics and word-of-moth from personal experiences at different BB & CC stores. I love being part of this circus, and the best part is that it comes FREE with the purchase of one or two players from either and/or both formats. :)


when can i see BD biting off HD DVD's ear?

Aside from LG's unit, no company has announced a combo player. LG's unit seems to have been an experiment, as no one else has even hinted they're working on a universal player.

OMG .... :eek: :eek: no one else has even hinted they're working on a universal player ? OMG ... selective memory?

This is an Evander Holyfield-Mike Tyson boxing match, and BD is Tyson swinging wildly and trying to use all its (back then) considerable muscle to slam Evander (i.e. HD-DVD) with one or two catastrophic punches. As Holyfield (or any good boxer that knows how to work the body and tire his opponent) HD-DVD is slowly chomping away at the long-term financial prospects of BD as a profitable platform, at which point it will be every CE company for itself. This HD-DVD Chinese player announcement is the boxing equivalent of a head butt or well-placed liver shot against BD that, while not as flashy or devastating as a KO, will be looked back at when the fight is over (with either side winning, losing or tying) and analyzed as the turning point of the struggle. A quiet and subtle turning point, but a turning point nevertheless. Can't wait to see those $199 HD-DVD Chinese players on Walmart come Black Friday ('07 but more likely '08) and the masses trampling each other to get their hands on them.

BTW, at this point I'm going to confess that I'm having way more fun watching the war unfold, taking sides and talking about it than watching movies. The players (Sony, Toshiba, Fox, Universal, Microsoft, etc.), their paid mouthpieces and/or motivated supporters (Amir, Parsons, Beatboy, The Bland, Sony's corporate board, Universal home video management, etc.)... I mean, come on! It's a real-life corporate Jery Springer show, except instead of chairs tossed or punches thrown we have amazon.com statistics and word-of-moth from personal experiences at different BB & CC stores. I love being part of this circus, and the best part is that it comes FREE with the purchase of one or two players from either and/or both formats. :)

Actually, it's free period! No purchases required- even better! :D :D :D

Agreed. Paramount has been the most dissapointing of all the studios. Their Babel effort was a joke! They are also the only studio to not release a film with lossless/uncompressed audio. A title like MI3 really could've used lossless.
NO freaking doubt.

They need to buck up and get with it on the audio front. They are being shamed by every other major studio.

I hope they get it right by the time Transformers comes to Blu-ray.

Toshiba already makes a few different units at different price points. My contention is that the HD-A2 is already the definition of low end, unless you'd like to strip away 1080i support and DVD upscaling. There's not much less you do feature-wise to make it more low end.

My point is that with the HD-A2, Toshiba sets the bar that all other manufacturers must pass under if they wish to enter the market and compete if they want to be on the low end of the market (as the Chinese CEs will want to be). If that bar keeps moving down below levels they deem to be worthwhile levels of profitability, they will never enter the market.

Sure, on the low end that's true. But there is nothing to keep competition from the middle and high end, except that no one is producing those in either format except for those with IP in the formats. No one is doing it purely for profit.

Aside from LG's unit, no company has announced a combo player. LG's unit seems to have been an experiment, as no one else has even hinted they're working on a universal player.

Samsung has announced, and then un-announced, and then back forth a few times. I don't know how that couldn't be considered a hint. But there is a whole lot of evidence that other CE's are working on universal players. If you really doubt that, I can go pull quotes, but it would be easier for me if you just googled it.

Now, as for the BD founders producing units, I'm sure that has more to do with licensing control and technological secrets. Unless you'd care to assert that HD DVD units cost significantly less than Blu-ray units to produce, I don't see your point.

My point is, you are acting like it is the low cost Toshiba unit that is keeping other competitors away. I am pointing out that competition hasn't arrived yet for either format. They only people who are producing are the people who have IP in the formats, and likely obligations to produce. Neutral parties aren't making players in either format yet, which should illustrate to you that the A2 isn't what is keeping competition out.


If this were so easily done, no one would have hardware shortages. The PS3 wouldn't have been delayed for months, Toshiba's shipment of HD-A2s wouldn't have been too late for the holidays, etc. Sure, it's possible to do, but what makes you think this isn't already happening? Factories still have to be retooled and retrained.

You made the point that Toshiba couldn't meet demand by itself because it wouldn't have the capacity. I was simple pointing out that it won't be Toshiba's plants that makes these devices. It will be as many Chinese plants as are necessary. So that fact that Toshiba is alone is irrelevant. There wouldn't be any more or less capacity if other CE's joined them.

On the subject of China, the author of this piece from Video Business does believe the recent news could significantly impact the format war: http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6423230.html. "HD DVD just secured the inside track on a potentially vast new market. The economies of scale that could result from China’s embrace of HD DVD is likely to have significant impact on retail prices in every market that sources its electronics from China—that is, the rest of the world."

The last line in that piece says it all though, relevant to both formats: "If you can’t watch the movies you want, it doesn’t really matter how cheap your machine is."

The last line in that piece says it all though, relevant to both formats: "If you can’t watch the movies you want, it doesn’t really matter how cheap your machine is."

Yep, J6P is gonna say Forget it, and keep buying SD DVDS.....

Yep, J6P is gonna say Forget it, and keep buying SD DVDS.....
That's the thing. You can watch any movie you want on either format's machine. You just may have to watch some of them in SD. That makes me wonder if content is less important in this format war than it was in previous ones.

I think most of us are not limited in shelf/rack space such that we can't keep our current DVD players for that.

That's the thing. You can watch any movie you want on either format's machine. You just may have to watch some of them in SD. That makes me wonder if content is less important in this format war than it was in previous ones.

Um...if you're gonna watch all disney, MGM, lionsgate and fox movies in SD than whats the point of getting an HD player when you can get a good upconverting DVD player for like 1/3rd the price.

Um...if you're gonna watch all disney, MGM, lionsgate and fox movies in SD than whats the point of getting an HD player when you can get a good upconverting DVD player for like 1/3rd the price.
Because you can watch lots of things from Universal, Warner, Paramount, Dreamworks, and others, and the players cost half as much as the competing format. You may not be prepared to pay $600 for a new player, but if the HD DVD players come down to $300 and you're in the market for a new DVD player, why not buy an HD DVD player?

Because you can watch lots of things from Universal, Warner, Paramount, Dreamworks, and others, and the players cost half as much as the competing format. You may not be prepared to pay $600 for a new player, but if the HD DVD players come down to $300 and you're in the market for a new DVD player, why not buy an HD DVD player?Because you can get a DVD player for $25.

My point is, you are acting like it is the low cost Toshiba unit that is keeping other competitors away. I am pointing out that competition hasn't arrived yet for either format. They only people who are producing are the people who have IP in the formats, and likely obligations to produce. Neutral parties aren't making players in either format yet, which should illustrate to you that the A2 isn't what is keeping competition out.


Skogan: Agree it is only the IP holders so far (at least it looks like that) but who’s fault is it that BD is a team effort but HD DVD is not. On the other hand, why aren’t other companies that have IP in HD DVD making players and how is several manufacturers that have IP making players not competing?

Samsung has announced, and then un-announced, and then back forth a few times. I don't know how that couldn't be considered a hint. But there is a whole lot of evidence that other CE's are working on universal players. If you really doubt that, I can go pull quotes, but it would be easier for me if you just googled it.


Actually there was no announcement. There was a quote from an exec that said if the war goes on for too long eventually he sees Samsung making a dual player. The rest is wishful thinking from HD DVD supporters.

Skogan: Agree it is only the IP holders so far (at least it looks like that) but who’s fault is it that BD is a team effort but HD DVD is not. On the other hand, why aren’t other companies that have IP in HD DVD making players and how is several manufacturers that have IP making players not competing?

It's not about fault. It's simply an explaination. People argue that HD DVD's low, low, everyday price is keeping competitors from entering the fray. I'm pointing out that competitors aren't entering the fray on either side, and that's due to the risk at this point outweighing the reward - for most companies. BD happens to have more CE companies with IP in the format, so they have more that are willing to assume that risk than HD DVD does.


Actually there was no announcement. There was a quote from an exec that said if the war goes on for too long eventually he sees Samsung making a dual player. The rest is wishful thinking from HD DVD supporters.


There's a lot more to it than that, (your's is just hopeful thinking from a BD supporter ;))

Sept. 05 was the non-announcment (http://www.engadget.com/2005/09/06/samsung-planning-dual-format-hd-dvd-blu-ray-disc-player/) you were talking about.

Then in June of last year a Samsung spokesman said,

Samsung is already working on a drive that handles both Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD, said Kim Du-Hyon, an assistant manager in Samsung's home-platform product planning division, in a briefing with reporters at the company's headquarters in Suwon, South Korea.

"We don't have a plan to make an HD DVD-only player but are considering a universal player," he said. "We are preparing HD DVD [support] now and if we launch a universal player it will be the end of this year or early next year."

http://www.digitalworldtokyo.com/2006/06/samsung_mulling_dual_blurayhd_1.php?www.reghardware.co.uk
Now, granted he does say "if HD DVD is as successful as BD", but it says a lot more to. They are already preparing HD DVD support.

I don't want to go on a googling expedition, but there is plenty of evidence showing that multiple sources are preparing universal drives. Broadcom wouldn't be making the universal chips if there wasn't, and from what I can tell, most analyst believe that universals are on the way - some having directly said that Samsung is going to bring one out.

So it's a little bit more than just wishful thinking on HD DVD supporters parts.

It's not about fault. It's simply an explaination. People argue that HD DVD's low, low, everyday price is keeping competitors from entering the fray. I'm pointing out that competitors aren't entering the fray on either side, and that's due to the risk at this point outweighing the reward - for most companies. BD happens to have more CE companies with IP in the format, so they have more that are willing to assume that risk than HD DVD does.

but you missed the point. Others like RCA, Sanyo..... have IP in HD DVD probably even some of the big BD companies that have released BD players. It is the facts of tech as it is today, patents mean that the same tech gets used. You decided to discount companies because they have IP. RCA dropped HD DVD even though they have IP and tried a player, Sanyo never did, NEC never released a stand alone drive you can buy…. Yes I agree most (doesn’t BenQ have a drive but no IP) drives and all players on both sides are from patent holders. But that is a red herring it is an answers in search of a question, chances are that we saw players from IP holders and founders because they know more about the techs.

Now, granted he does say "if HD DVD is as successful as BD", but it says a lot more to. They are already preparing HD DVD support.

I don't want to go on a googling expedition, but there is plenty of evidence showing that multiple sources are preparing universal drives. Broadcom wouldn't be making the universal chips if there wasn't, and from what I can tell, most analyst believe that universals are on the way - some having directly said that Samsung is going to bring one out.

So it's a little bit more than just wishful thinking on HD DVD supporters parts.

No, it is like I said. From the article you posted

Kim underlined Samsung's belief that Blu-ray Disc will beat HD DVD in the commercial marketplace but said Samsung will consider a universal player should HD DVD prove as successful as Blu-ray Disc.

how is that so different from what I said.

Was there an announcement? No
Did they say they had one? No will consider it (future)
Do you not see where they also say that they don’t think it will be as successful?

All they did is answer to a direct question that they won’t close the door if the world goes that way.

how is that so different from what I said.

Was there an announcement? No
Did they say they had one? No will consider it (future)
Do you not see where they also say that they don’t think it will be as successful?

All they did is answer to a direct question that they won’t close the door if the world goes that way.

They said they are prepairing HD DVD support now. Do you think Sony is preparing HD DVD support? Samsung is clearly making the necessary arrangements for hybrid drive, and that is more than what you said.

Sure, on the low end that's true. But there is nothing to keep competition from the middle and high end, except that no one is producing those in either format except for those with IP in the formats. No one is doing it purely for profit.
I'd say the non-Sony Blu-ray players, as well as the Toshiba XA2 are all priced for a profit.

I agree there's no reason why any CE can't come in at the middle or high end of the HD DVD market, but the effect on the overall format war is minimal if that does happen. HD DVD needs to keep its hardware price advantage to survive. That's why the low end market is the one of most significance IMO.

Samsung has announced, and then un-announced, and then back forth a few times. I don't know how that couldn't be considered a hint. But there is a whole lot of evidence that other CE's are working on universal players. If you really doubt that, I can go pull quotes, but it would be easier for me if you just googled it.
It's certainly possible that other universal players are being tinkered with, but as far as anyone knows (for certain) no one has another unit on the table right this moment. At least with some of the Chinese CE units we're seeing some model numbers and/or anticipated launch windows (and even that's not much).

My point is, you are acting like it is the low cost Toshiba unit that is keeping other competitors away. I am pointing out that competition hasn't arrived yet for either format. They only people who are producing are the people who have IP in the formats, and likely obligations to produce. Neutral parties aren't making players in either format yet, which should illustrate to you that the A2 isn't what is keeping competition out.
I agree there isn't outside competition on either format. I do, however, think the causes for that lack of competition to be very different, due to the pricing schemes and attitudes.

HD DVD is trying to win market share with hardware pricing. Toshiba is slashing away their unit profits in order to compete; they have to. If they had priced the HD-A1 at $800 the PlayStation 3 would have blown them out of the water. As things are now, they're still holding on at half the MSRP of the Blu-ray standalones and $100 below the PS3.

Either Toshiba and the rest of the HD DVD PRG think Toshiba is doing just fine being the only manufacturer and deliberately stonewalling other CEs, the other CEs are taking longer than might be imagined to make an HD DVD unit, or the low end pricing is too low for anyone to compete. I happen to think the latter is the most logical, but it's possible (though increasingly unlikely as time passes) that one of the other reasons is the explanation for no competition.

As for the BDA, they've made little secret of their disdain for the price slashing; part of the reason they've been pushing for a new hardware standard is to boost their profit margins to recover their R&D costs, and as such keeping low cost Chinese CEs out of the market as much as possible to slow the descent of pricing has certainly been on their minds. It's possible, however, that they've changed tracks recently since the Funai announcement goes against this idea.

You made the point that Toshiba couldn't meet demand by itself because it wouldn't have the capacity. I was simple pointing out that it won't be Toshiba's plants that makes these devices. It will be as many Chinese plants as are necessary. So that fact that Toshiba is alone is irrelevant. There wouldn't be any more or less capacity if other CE's joined them.
Perhaps, perhaps not. It's not a huge concern in the long term as far as available supplies, but having a single manufacturer making all units certainly should worry you. Sure, you've got Blu-ray breathing down Toshiba's neck for pricing, but quality? Features? If things continue the way they are going, and no one else steps into the fray for HD DVD, Toshiba gets to call all the shots on what you see on your player.

If things continue the way they are going, and no one else steps into the fray for HD DVD, Toshiba gets to call all the shots on what you see on your player.
Only on the low end. On the low end, they are in the same position as Apple and the i Pod.

But there's no reason to think Meridian won't make their highend HD DVD player.

Or Onkyo a middle end player.


BTW, what was your explaination for why neutral CE companies aren't making BD players?

BTW, what was your explaination for why neutral CE companies aren't making BD players?
Risk. People love to back a winner. I would imagine that anyone looking to jump into an untested market as late as October of last year would be necessarily hesitant to produce a product that was performing the way Blu-ray was then.

It has only been since mid to late December when the first signs of Blu-ray's current ascendancy started trickling in, and I'm sure any CE looking to make money and not watch product sit on shelves has been cognizant of this.

What's HD DVD's excuse?

"As for the BDA, they've made little secret of their disdain for the price slashing; part of the reason they've been pushing for a new hardware standard is to boost their profit margins to recover their R&D costs, and as such keeping low cost Chinese CEs out of the market as much as possible to slow the descent of pricing has certainly been on their minds. It's possible, however, that they've changed tracks recently since the Funai announcement goes agains"

THIS is something I have no sympathy for, these CE's have made billions on consumer purchases, and are going to make PLENTY of $ as the format moves along, it's the cost of doing business, plain and simple.
It also shows little apathy for folks that WANT to get into the HD world, at a REASONABLE price point, and their prices aren't reasonable.
Maybe if their standrads of protection :rolleyes: weren't so high(like cracking it isn't gonna happen anyways), they wouldn't have to charge so much, and they would make $ a bit sooner.
No matter how you slice it, they haven't a care in the world in regards to J6P, or even the average enthusiast in regards to price, so I could care less, and will not support them, UNLESS HD DVD falls on it's face, and even then, I WILL wait for their prices to drop into MY stratosphere, and I am alot more apt to buy ahead than J6P, so common folks will NOT enter this market for a long while IMO.

I have nothing against BD really(high def is good!!), I have REAL issues with cost of entertainment though, and right now, the cost to wow factor just isn't there for my lowly butt( and that INCLUDES the HD DVD ridiculous combo format).
Not to mention, I LOATHE the thought of Sony running the show.

THIS is something I have no sympathy for, these CE's have made billions on consumer purchases, and are going to make PLENTY of $ as the format moves along, it's the cost of doing business, plain and simple.

It also shows little apathy for folks that WANT to get into the HD world, at a REASONABLE price point, and their prices aren't reasonable.

Maybe if their standrads of protection :rolleyes: weren't so high(like cracking it isn't gonna happen anyways), they wouldn't have to charge so much, and they would make $ a bit sooner.
Traditionally, if you want to play on the bleeding edge, you have to pay the piper. That's the way things have always worked in the past, and it works because it gives companies a reason to invest in newer technology.

Toshiba has turned the concept completely on its head by betting the HD DVD farm on royalties alone, and most of the CE manufacturers have turned their backs on them as a result.

No matter how you slice it, they haven't a care in the world in regards to J6P, or even the average enthusiast in regards to price, so I could care less, and will not support them, UNLESS HD DVD falls on it's face, and even then, I WILL wait for their prices to drop into MY stratosphere, and I am alot more apt to buy ahead than J6P, so common folks will NOT enter this market for a long while IMO.
I'm sorry you feel this way, but J6P doesn't own an HDTV set yet. Why mass market to a target audience that isn't mass market? HDTV owners remain a minority in every country (except maybe technophilic Japan and S. Korea?).

I'm also sorry you consider the pricing to be too high, but there is a cost to introducing any new technology, and it is unrealistic to expect corporations to simply throw profits to the wind. That Toshiba has done so is a unique characteristic of their royalty configuration, and HD DVD owners are the beneficiaries of this in the short term.

Given current trends, though, that lower price tag could be deceptive if HD DVD loses the format war.

I have nothing against BD really(high def is good!!), I have REAL issues with cost of entertainment though, and right now, the cost to wow factor just isn't there for my lowly butt( and that INCLUDES the HD DVD ridiculous combo format).

Not to mention, I LOATHE the thought of Sony running the show.
If the price is too high, stay out until it's at a range you can afford. It really is that simple.

As for the Sony hatred, Sony doesn't run the show for Blu-ray; that would be the BDA. Sony just happens to be the most visible member due to the prevalence of the PlayStation 3.

Risk. People love to back a winner. I would imagine that anyone looking to jump into an untested market as late as October of last year would be necessarily hesitant to produce a product that was performing the way Blu-ray was then.

It has only been since mid to late December when the first signs of Blu-ray's current ascendancy started trickling in, and I'm sure any CE looking to make money and not watch product sit on shelves has been cognizant of this.

What's HD DVD's excuse?

It's the same, which is my point.

We both know that the stand alones on both sides aren't selling all that well yet. Stand alone Blu-ray machines, depending on which information you read, are either doing as bad or worse than stand alone HD DVDs. The only people making stand alones right now are those with significant IP in them, everyone else is on the sidelines.

But while some people can accept that for BD, they can't accept that for HD DVD. There's been this myth created that Toshibas pricing has kept other companies out of the HD DVD market altogether. Many people don't accept the fact that no one was going to compete with them anyway at this point in the game, because it is too risky to make standalones on either format.

Toshiba has turned the concept completely on its head by betting the HD DVD farm on royalties alone, and most of the CE manufacturers have turned their backs on them as a result.



This being a prime example of what I'm talking about above.

First you admit that you "agree there's no reason why any CE can't come in at the middle or high end of the HD DVD market."

Then you admit that no one would be competing by making stand alone HD DVD players right now anyway.

But then you reflexively go back to arguing that the CE companies have turned their back on HD DVD because they cut their player cost.

It's the same, which is my point.

We both know that the stand alones on both sides aren't selling all that well yet. Stand alone Blu-ray machines, depending on which information you read, are either doing as bad or worse than stand alone HD DVDs. The only people making stand alones right now are those with significant IP in them, everyone else is on the sidelines.

But while some people can accept that for BD, they can't accept that for HD DVD. There's been this myth created that Toshibas pricing has kept other companies out of the HD DVD market altogether. Many people don't accept the fact that no one was going to compete with them anyway at this point in the game, because it is too risky to make standalones on either format.
Fair enough. But this brings us back to the point about why so much of HD DVD's hopes are pinned on "cheap Chinese players".

Looking at things objectively right now, if you were an unaligned manufacturer, which side of the fence would you be more willing to jump in on at the low end, knowing that:

- Blu-ray has higher average pricing (and thus more profit to be made)
- Blu-ray has more disc sales, and shows no signs of losing ground

We know that these arguments don't necessarily hold true at the middle and high end markets, but I assume we agree that such units will not generally affect the outcome of the format war.

Why would a neutral CE make an HD DVD unit now?

Ahhhhhhhhhhh

Bleeding Edge?
This is almost a year into it, and BD is STILL outrageously high don't you think? Maybe your rich, and you don't, thats fine......

J6P HAS, slowly but surely, been buying into HDTV (whether you want to believe it or not), it's OBVIOUSLY NOT as fast as WE enthusiasts would like, but it IS BEGINNING to happen.
Toshiba has done so? How about Sony's profits on the PS3? Or should we say otherwise?

Deceptive pricing? YOU would be paying up the nose(even more than you are NOW) if it weren't for Tosh and HD DVD, you should be thanking them.

A range IIIIIIIIII can afford? How about the millions of other folks that want to join in? Whats that? You can't hear them?

Neither can the BDA.

Fair enough. But this brings us back to the point about why so much of HD DVD's hopes are pinned on "cheap Chinese players".

Looking at things objectively right now, if you were an unaligned manufacturer, which side of the fence would you be more willing to jump in on at the low end, knowing that:

- Blu-ray has higher average pricing (and thus more profit to be made)
- Blu-ray has more disc sales, and shows no signs of losing ground

We know that these arguments don't necessarily hold true at the middle and high end markets, but I assume we agree that such units will not generally affect the outcome of the format war.

Why would a neutral CE make an HD DVD unit now?

Considering that Sony has the Studios in their pocket, what exactly would you do if you were HD DVD?

Much more profit to be made out of OUR pockets!!

Rich people, they just don't get it.......

First. BD and HD DVD are not eqaul cost products - not according to HP.

Second, Sony has the PS3 and will introduce another player at the same price.

Third, the PS3 makes it very hard to procure parts.

Fourth, best option is make combo players, since both formats will be around.

Fifth, I have a hard time believing NPD numbers. If standalones are tied and we add the PS3 to the mix, then how come we are only at 2:1 sales ratio? Seems unlikely to me....but I'll accept it since I haven't seen data to the contrary. Also, the 2:1 has required significant sales and promotions on the BDA part. So, combos are the best bet - at $599 or lower.

Looking at things objectively right now, if you were an unaligned manufacturer, which side of the fence would you be more willing to jump in on at the low end, knowing that:

- Blu-ray has higher average pricing (and thus more profit to be made)
- Blu-ray has more disc sales, and shows no signs of losing ground

Right now, there is no low end for BD. The PS3 has all of the market from low to mid-end. I sure as heck wouldn't want to compete against the PS3 with those features at that price. The PS3 is feature packed and highly subsidized, and I wouldn't want to compete with it.

If I was selling a player, I wouldn't care how many disc were sold. I would care what the market for players was like. If stand alone players weren't selling well, It wouldn't matter to me that the PS3 was selling lots of disc.



Why would a neutral CE make an HD DVD unit now?

They don't want to make a player for either camp right now. That's the point I'm driving at. It's both formats, and nothing special about either one of them.

Fourth, best option is make combo players, since both formats will be around.
So, combos are the best bet - at $599 or lower.

I definitely agree with this scenario, I want this more than any of the hair brained flipper disc incarnations.

Bleeding Edge?
This is almost a year into it, and BD is STILL outrageously high don't you think? Maybe your rich, and you don't, thats fine......
I'm sorry. I was under the impression that this place was the AVS forum, full of enthusiastic early adopters. By your own description, you are not an early adopter. You aren't willing to spend lots of money on unproven technology. You want value for your dollar.

There's nothing wrong with what you want, but we're not far enough into the technology curve yet. Components are still in short supply, manufacturing quantities for most of these units is miniscule, disc sales volumes are still small, and oh, we still have a format war going on.

In the fullness of time, all these things may happen, but that day is not today. It may be 6 months from now. Who knows? Griping about it on a forum doesn't change reality, however.

J6P HAS, slowly but surely, been buying into HDTV (whether you want to believe it or not), it's OBVIOUSLY NOT as fast as WE enthusiasts would like, but it IS BEGINNING to happen.
Beginning does not mean it has happened. Yes, there are a growing number of HDTVs out there, but they still represent a minority of households today.

Perhaps in a couple of years we can say HDTVs are in the majority of households (and I would even hesitate at such an early projection), but until then high definition content remains a niche product. Both camps are working hard to try and bring as much of that HDTV owning minority into the fold, but their job is complicated by the fact that 70%+ of their marketing is falling on deaf ears in the USA.

Toshiba has done so? How about Sony's profits on the PS3? Or should we say otherwise?
The PS3 is a game console first and foremost. It peforms admirably as a high definition player, and that's one of its strengths, but indeed what you say about it is exactly the same as what it appears to me like Toshiba is trying to do with HD DVD.

Deceptive pricing? YOU would be paying up the nose(even more than you are NOW) if it weren't for Tosh and HD DVD, you should be thanking them.
Sorry, I wasn't aware that thanking people for greed (on either side) was considered a necessary element of public etiquette. Do you seriously believe Toshiba's goals are so humanitarian that they're just willing to make units at low cost just because they can?

Blu-ray pricing is what it is specifically because of the PlayStation 3. If anything, HD DVD owners should be thanking SONY for pricing the PS3 where it is so that Toshiba would be forced to price their HD DVD standalones lower to compete. If you don't believe me, go look up (or hey, ask some of the AVS members here) about what the pricing for LaserDisc and DVD players were for the first few YEARS of their existence.

A range IIIIIIIIII can afford? How about the millions of other folks that want to join in? Whats that? You can't hear them?
Wishing that things cost less does not change the reality of pricing. How many people wish that a Ferrari would cost $1?

They don't want to make a player for either camp right now. That's the point I'm driving at. It's both formats, and nothing special about either one of them.
At last we agree. :)

At last we agree. :)

Or at the very least, we're too worn to continue :)

Bahahaha
After a small discussion with you, I get the impression that you are well off, and while thats great(especially for you), that is NOT inline with the regular folks now is it?

HD DVD owners should thank SONY, and the PS3?
Why is that? Even G1 Tosh products were reasonably priced.

The PS3 is losing $, just like G1 HD-A1's did, but the PS3 VOLUME alone is costing more $.

Public etiquette? You make me laugh, take your rich a$$ down to a regular part of town and look around.
Humanitarian? NO, they HAD to do what they did(as I ALREADY stated ONCE), because Sony has the studios wrapped up in cash, what's Sony's excuse for the price of the PS3?
Doesn't work out so well for your argument does it....

That Ferrari analogy(and I use that term LOOSELY) was pathetic AT BEST, but then again, most folks that actually own a Ferrari, could PROBABLY afford a BDA product..

Check your class envy at the door, comrade. This isn't the place to rally the proletariat against the bourgeoisie.

Bahahaha
After a small discussion with you, I get the impression that you are well off, and while thats great(especially for you), that is NOT inline with the regular folks now is it?

HD DVD owners should thank SONY, and the PS3?
Why is that? Even G1 Tosh products were reasonably priced.

The PS3 is losing $, just like G1 HD-A1's did, but the PS3 VOLUME alone is costing more $.
Are you even listening to yourself?

Ask yourself WHY Toshiba would deliberately take a loss on the HD-A1. Come on. I know you know the answer.

Psst. It's because the PS3 20GB was $499.

Public etiquette? You make me laugh, take your rich a$$ down to a regular part of town and look around.
Sigh. No, I'm not rich, but I'm not living paycheck to paycheck either. Speaking of public etiquette, where did you learn yours?

Humanitarian? NO, they HAD to do what they did(as I ALREADY stated ONCE), because Sony has the studios wrapped up in cash, what's Sony's excuse for the price of the PS3?
Pardon? Last time I checked Sony is losing money on every PS3 (just like they did with the PS1... and PS2), though they're probably losing quite a bit less per unit these days. Did you have a point to make, or does making random assertions qualify as debate among your circle of friends?

That Ferrari analogy(and I use that term LOOSELY) was pathetic AT BEST, but then again, most folks that actually own a Ferrari, could PROBABLY afford a BDA product..
It was made as an illustration of concept, which you missed. Just because you (and other) people wish for pricing to be lower does not perforce provide the market conditions to make the pricing change.

This doesn't mean that we don't all want prices to be lower. Of course we do. Some of us, however, realize that what we want isn't necessarily going to change things, and accept the conditions under which new technology is introduced.

Most of what you are posting is simply sour grapes because you do not feel you can afford what you want.

IF I felt the NEED to OVERSPEND on a format, I COULD do it, but WHAT is the purpose, when I already have a format that is EVERY BIT as good?

I am not really following where you are going with this, I am NOT a poor person, I HAVE $(I'm NOT rich though, "You shouldn't HAVE to be rich to enjoy something like this"), but I refuse to overspend, when it is NOT neccessary to get quality video and audio.

The PS3 wasn't even around when Tosh was selling the A1, so the PRICE was what it was, maybe it was in regards to the "COMING" of the PS3(ALMOST a guarantee, but were folks complaining, no of course not).
Random Assertions? I think not.

Why is my public etiquette poor, have I said something to offend you, or other BDA fans? If so, SORRY.

I guess my REAL point is this:

WHY do folks support Sony and the BDA, when their product is NO BETTER, their price is TWICE as high, and when downloads become the norm, they will slam rootkits into your system?

IF I felt the NEED to OVERSPEND on a format, I COULD do it, but WHAT is the purpose, when I already have a format that is EVERY BIT as good?

I am not really following where you are going with this, I am NOT a poor person, I HAVE $(I'm NOT rich though, "You shouldn't HAVE to be rich to enjoy something like this"), but I refuse to overspend, when it is NOT neccessary to get quality video and audio.
Which comes back to my earlier statement. You aren't an early adopter (before you explode again, this isn't a judgment against your financial situation, it's commentary on your spending habits regarding new technology).



The PS3 wasn't even around when Tosh was selling the A1, so the PRICE was what it was, maybe it was in regards to the "COMING" of the PS3(ALMOST a guarantee, but were folks complaining, no of course not).

Random Assertions? I think not.
OK, so we agree that the Toshiba HD-A1 pricing was definitely influenced by the PS3 then.

Why is my public etiquette poor, have I said something to offend you, or other BDA fans? If so, SORRY.
Aside from shouting every other word and sounding shrill, your pejorative usage of "rich a$$" would be considered poor manners in any civilized setting.

I guess my REAL point is this:

WHY do folks support Sony and the BDA, when their product is NO BETTER, their price is TWICE as high, and when downloads become the norm, they will slam rootkits into your system?
- Because we do feel it's better, and has more potential

- High pricing now is not indicative that future pricing is high. Do you really feel that Blu-ray players will always be $1000? They're coming down to $599 MSRP in June (that's a 40% discount from original launch price)... whereas HD DVD hasn't budged an inch from its $499 launch MSRP.

- Rootkits? Please. My PS3 runs Linux, and gives me the option to load my own OS if I want. If Microsoft and Broadcomm have their way, every HD player would be running Windows CE. Would you like to speculate about which of the two environments is easier to attack from a security standpoint?

Why is my public etiquette poor, have I said something to offend you, or other BDA fans? If so, SORRY.

You could start by eliminating the ALL CAPS stuff, which comes across as shouting. I'm sure you wouldn't do that in a normal, face-to-face discussion, would you? :)

Which comes back to my earlier statement. You aren't an early adopter (before you explode again, this isn't a judgment against your financial situation, it's commentary on your spending habits regarding new technology).

Explode AGAIN? Hmmmmm



OK, so we agree that the Toshiba HD-A1 pricing was definitely influenced by the PS3 then.
Say it was, (as I have stated btw), the PS3 IS being subsidized by Sony, so they are obviously losing $ there, but at a MUCH higher rate considering the volume as I already stated..


Aside from shouting every other word and sounding shrill, your pejorative usage of "rich a$$" would be considered poor manners in any civilized setting.

OOOOOOOOOO so sorry, you can't handle a little jab BACK at you in REAL format, I'll try and keep to rich folk talk from now on, I understand that BD folks are more refined....:rolleyes:


- Because we do feel it's better, and has more potential

Have you SEEN any proof of this?

- High pricing now is not indicative that future pricing is high. Do you really feel that Blu-ray players will always be $1000? They're coming down to $599 MSRP in June (that's a 40% discount from original launch price)... whereas HD DVD hasn't budged an inch from its $499 launch MSRP.

This is the most amusing!! Are you SURE of this, or are you just spouting hyperbole that was spread throughout the net? HD DVD will obviously be lower at that point, or am I wrong there(AGAIN, I'm always wrong it seems)?

- Rootkits? Please. My PS3 runs Linux, and gives me the option to load my own OS if I want. If Microsoft and Broadcomm have their way, every HD player would be running Windows CE. Would you like to speculate about which of the two environments is easier to attack from a security standpoint?

Obviously you weren't thinking broad enough, sorry that I didn't spell it out for you... WITH BD HTPCS, you WILL be slammed with rootkits.... feel better now?

You could start by eliminating the ALL CAPS stuff, which comes across as shouting. I'm sure you wouldn't do that in a normal, face-to-face discussion, would you? :)

Ya think so?
The CAPS, were only used to make sure someone is paying attention to what was important in the discusssion, they weren't LOCKED on.
Get it?
Good.

BTW, How do BD fans feel about the fact that their beloved format, with it's SEVERELY overpriced players, can't even play the simple CD?
Thats pretty pathetic, don't ya think?

OOOOOOOO yeah...... Most BD folks have 10K CD players, and buttloads of rack space..........
What was I thinking?

Ya think so?
The CAPS, were only used to make sure someone is paying attention to what was important in the discusssion, they weren't LOCKED on.
Get it?
Good.

Try as I might, I'm afraid I didn't find anything important in your posts other than an apparent lack of social graces. I gave you some good advice and you've chosen to ignore it. You may have the last word, now, 'cuz I'm moving on...

Try as I might, I'm afraid I didn't find anything important in your posts other than an apparent lack of social graces. I gave you some good advice and you've chosen to ignore it. You may have the last word, now, 'cuz I'm moving on...


As I already stated, I only used caps where I felt it was necessary to make sure that word was understood, if you can't handle that, than TY for your advice )Oooops, I made an error agin, and used caps to say thank you...... sorry'bout that).
You act like I use caps on every word........
bah
:rolleyes:

BTW, How do BD fans feel about the fact that their beloved format, with it's SEVERELY overpriced players, can't even play the simple CD?
Thats pretty pathetic, don't ya think?

OOOOOOOO yeah...... Most BD folks have 10K CD players, and buttloads of rack space..........
What was I thinking?

Who plays there CDs on DVD players anyway? And who even buys cds anymore when music is free on the internet?

Who plays there CDs on DVD players anyway? And who even buys cds anymore when music is free on the internet?

I do, and many others do as well, thats a fact in the HD DVD forum, although I'm sure thats not discussed much in the BD forum...
Maybe I should have a dedicated player for everything, but if it's not better, why bother>>>>>> again.......)?

EDIT: Music is free on the internet? What music are we talking about?

I do, and many others do as well, thats a fact in the HD DVD forum, although I'm sure thats not discussed much in the BD forum...
Maybe I should have a dedicated player for everything, but if it's not better, why bother?

EDIT: Music is free on the internet? What music are we talking about?


Well we dont listen to music in our house much at all. I prefer TV. We listen to music in the cars or MP3 players.

And we are talking about all music. You can download it on several places.

O brother... I rest my case

O brother... I rest my case

So you concede that most people listen to music on CD players, Computers, and MP3 players as opposed to their DVD players?

I do, and many others do as well, thats a fact in the HD DVD forum, although I'm sure thats not discussed much in the BD forum...
Maybe I should have a dedicated player for everything, but if it's not better, why bother>>>>>> again.......)?

EDIT: Music is free on the internet? What music are we talking about?

I'm with Muzz on this one (See! We can be friends!). I have a super zippy dedicated audio system out back, but it's awful nice to be able to listen to CD's in the other rooms where I have DVD players. I suppose I could buy separate CD players, but that really shouldn't be necessary.

Fidelity on downloads falls way short of my expectations of high quality audio.

So you concede that most people listen to music on CD players, Computers, and MP3 players as opposed to their DVD players?


(you probably should have just left his case rested :) )

So you concede that most people listen to music on CD players, Computers, and MP3 players as opposed to their DVD players?

Most folks that I know would prefer a one piece solution when they are at home, you know, through their sound system, and that doesn't include MP3 players at most of them.
Maybe the folks you hang with are a bit different, but using a dual format player is definitely preferable to having 2 players doing the same thing.

You can't see that? You don't think the A1 is a good CD player?

How good is the $1500 Pioneer BD player at playing cds?

Well? How good are the Pioneer, the panasonic, the samsung, or the simply unbelievable PS3 at playing the simple CD?
These players are between $600-1500, so I'm CERTAIN they do it mint!
You know, the format thats been around forever, that more folks own than DVD even!!
Well?

I'm waiting......

I would guess, IF you do buy CD, it's very likely you play it on your DVD Player...at least for most folks I know, including myself. My CD collection isn't huge - 350 or so. I've got them all also on my hard drive, but I do listen to CDs when I am in the mood to listen to some great music :)

My Tosh XA1 is truly a superb CD player. I prefer it to even the XA2. My other player is the Polk iSonic, which is also a DVD Player....so I don't have a dedicated CD player, I own CDs and I guess I'm pretty much your avg. Joe.....

Plaz, you are OBVIOUSLY not the AVERAGE JOE, considering your gear, but why would you use your HD DVD players for CD playback?

WHAT, you can't afford seperates to do the job?

BTW, How do BD fans feel about the fact that their beloved format, with it's SEVERELY overpriced players, can't even play the simple CD?
Thats pretty pathetic, don't ya think?

OOOOOOOO yeah...... Most BD folks have 10K CD players, and buttloads of rack space..........
Sorry, what are you referring to? My PS3 plays CDs just fine. Mine's currently playing Evanescensce - The Open Door.

It's not even overpriced. Amazing.

FWIW, my BR player not only plays CDs, but it plays SACDs as well... they sound FANTASTIC! ;)




(you probably should have just left his case rested :)
Yep!

... PS3 ... It's not even overpriced.The PS3 seems pretty overpriced to me. :p

The PS3 seems pretty overpriced to me. :p
Spoken like one who isn't an early adopter.

You bought an Xbox 360 + HD-DVD add-on; that right there is the price of a PS3. :)

Spoken like one who isn't an early adopter.True. I'm a budget 'early adopter'. I'll adopt at the earliest point my budget will allow. ;)
However, the PS3 isn't an 'early adopter' machine. It's the latest incarnation of Sony's gaming platform, the Playstation. It is being bought by the masses, not 'early adopters'.

You bought an Xbox 360 + HD-DVD add-on; that right there is the price of a PS3. :)Yes, I bought an Xbox 360 for $400 (overpriced too, IMO). I used it for a few months, then it sat idle for around 10 months. I got the addon for $160 and the ability to watch HD DVDs, and that money has been well spent.
I would gladly pay $160 for a Blu-ray addon as well. But $500-600 for another gaming machine I won't use except for movies?...no thanks, far too much.

True. I'm a budget 'early adopter'. I'll adopt at the earliest point my budget will allow. ;)
Actually you're what most people would term an early mass adopter. You are most concerned with value but still want the newer product.

However, the PS3 isn't an 'early adopter' machine. It's the latest incarnation of Sony's gaming platform, the Playstation. It is being bought by the masses, not 'early adopters'.

Yes, I bought an Xbox 360 for $400 (overpriced too, IMO). I used it for a few months, then it sat idle for around 10 months. I got the addon for $160 and the ability to watch HD DVDs, and that money has been well spent.
I would gladly pay $160 for a Blu-ray addon as well. But $500-600 for another gaming machine I won't use except for movies?...no thanks, far too much.
Technically speaking, the PS3 is an early adopter product right now. It is designed as a high end machine with many functions catering to a higher than average income consumer base for the moment due to its price. The low end of the PlayStation market is still occupied by the PlayStation 2, which remains a solid product on its own and still sells very well.

There is no such thing as a "budget early adopter". My comment wasn't about your choice of hardware so much as your buying philosophy, which more closely matches that of an early mass adopter. The entrance of gaming consoles on both sides of this format war has skewed the demographics by extending the reach into much lower adoption tiers than would normally happen.

Wow. I didn't realize Sony BMG Music was still putting out rootkits after being slammed so hard with (well deserved) class-action lawsuits. Also, I didn't know Sony BMG Music was a movie studio that is producing BD content. Neither did I know that they were exactly the same as Sony Electronics or Sony Pictures.

I was going to get some insurance through Sony Financial, but I was afraid I might get a rootkit. ;)

Fifth, I have a hard time believing NPD numbers. If standalones are tied and we add the PS3 to the mix, then how come we are only at 2:1 sales ratio? Seems unlikely to me....but I'll accept it since I haven't seen data to the contrary. I'm somewhat skeptical of some numbers, but one thing to consider is that the add-on for the XBOX360 might account for over half of the HD DVD installed base, thus making the standalone base on the HD DVD side much smaller than their total player base.

--Darin

But while some people can accept that for BD, they can't accept that for HD DVD. There's been this myth created that Toshibas pricing has kept other companies out of the HD DVD market altogether. Many people don't accept the fact that no one was going to compete with them anyway at this point in the game, because it is too risky to make standalones on either format.

Skogan. The difference is that many IP holders and some I am noit sure of (like BenQ) have made BD players. On the HD DVD side RCA (an IP holder) tried and got burned so they only went with what they promissed and ordered from Toshiba (too late to turn back) and Sanyo a big IP holder is no where to be seen.

Either you can assume BD IP holders are pushing BD because they can and believe in the format and that HD DVD IP holders don’t because they either think it is as good as dead (no use wasting money on a format that won’t go anywhere) or they can’t compete with the Toshiba player (wait for manufacturing prices to go down and they won’t lose their shirt subsidizing to compete).

Skogan. The difference is that many IP holders and some I am noit sure of (like BenQ) have made BD players. On the HD DVD side RCA (an IP holder) tried and got burned so they only went with what they promissed and ordered from Toshiba (too late to turn back) and Sanyo a big IP holder is no where to be seen.

Either you can assume BD IP holders are pushing BD because they can and believe in the format and that HD DVD IP holders don’t because they either think it is as good as dead (no use wasting money on a format that won’t go anywhere) or they can’t compete with the Toshiba player (wait for manufacturing prices to go down and they won’t lose their shirt subsidizing to compete).


....or the HD DVD CE companies only have a small amount of IP in the format, whereas the BD companies have more in their format.

Really, I can think of a number of different reasons to explain the way things have worked out. For some reason, everyone has bought the BD spin on this, hook line and sinker, when there is no evidence that it is true.

First. BD and HD DVD are not eqaul cost products - not according to HP.

plazman: not exactly, HP said MS makes it cheaper for them to support HD DVD. MS incentives have nothing to do with CEs
Third, the PS3 makes it very hard to procure parts.

not sure what that means
Fifth, I have a hard time believing NPD numbers. If standalones are tied and we add the PS3 to the mix, then how come we are only at 2:1 sales ratio?

because like BD HD DVD is also extremely heavily weighted on the console side. Forget NPD, Toshiba said that all the standalone players (and they built and shipped each one of them) totaled around 60k in NA last year (including the second generation) and that most likely over 175K were sold.

because like BD HD DVD is also extremely heavily weighted on the console side. Forget NPD, Toshiba said that all the standalone players (and they built and shipped each one of them) totaled around 60k in NA last year (including the second generation) and that most likely over 175K were sold.


And there was a supply issue up until late last year. But more than that, I want to see some confirmation of those numbers.

Because you can watch lots of things from Universal, Warner, Paramount, Dreamworks, and others, and the players cost half as much as the competing format. You may not be prepared to pay $600 for a new player, but if the HD DVD players come down to $300 and you're in the market for a new DVD player, why not buy an HD DVD player?

$300 is too rich for my blood at this point. Even if the format war was completely over and settled, I don't think that HD discs offer $250 worth of functionality over a regular dvd player. The HD disc format (either one) needs to convicne J6P that this is better, in terms of PQ and better in terms of value than DVD. Release some HD disc only titles, especially Disney releases. Release DVD versions later or not at all. That would give people incentive to buy HD disc versions of titles, or make them want it.

Third, the PS3 makes it very hard to procure parts. not sure what that means
Fifth, I have a hard time believing NPD numbers. If standalones are tied and we add the PS3 to the mix, then how come we are only at 2:1 sales ratio?because like BD HD DVD is also extremely heavily weighted on the console side. Forget NPD, Toshiba said that all the standalone players (and they built and shipped each one of them) totaled around 60k in NA last year (including the second generation) and that most likely over 175K were sold.It means the PS3 is using up a lot of the blue diodes and other parts making it hard for other CEs and even Sony to get those parts for their players.

The numbers are what they are. So Blu-ray has a 5:1 hardware advantage and a 2:1 software advantage. Do studios care that the ratios don't match? I think they will focus on the 2:1 software advantage and not care how Blu-ray got that advantage. Bigger is better.

The numbers are what they are. So Blu-ray has a 5:1 hardware advantage and a 2:1 software advantage. Do studios care that the ratios don't match? I think they will focus on the 2:1 software advantage and not care how Blu-ray got that advantage. Bigger is better.If some studios execs didn't know that the PS3 would have a lower attach rates than standalone players before these formats even launched, then they must have gotten to that position with something other than intelligence. :)

While they probably care how one side got a certain advantage, they shouldn't be doing it in naive ways. For instance, if the PS3 had attach rates that were 40% of standalone players, they would probably consider that phenomenal for a system like that.

--Darin

And there was a supply issue up until late last year. But more than that, I want to see some confirmation of those numbers.
not sure what you mean by that. My point was if we assume add-on~ 160k and others ~80k (for a total of 240) then 1/3 are SA and 2/3 are AO, if we also have 80k SA on the BD side there is 1M PS3 and we are comparing 1080 vs 240 gives us 2:1

the way he phrased it it was more like 240 HD DVD players 240 BD players that would mean 1M PS3 are roughly the same as 240 players (i.e. BD SA=HD DVD SA so disks should be close and so PS3 adds an other SA in the movies to give 2:1 and so is equal to 240 players)

but in reality that is not what is happening.

It means the PS3 is using up a lot of the blue diodes and other parts making it hard for other CEs and even Sony to get those parts for their players.
obviously, I am not an idiot. my question was what did he mean with it.

was it an implication for all manufacturers (for example no blue lasers for anyone) or that PS3 affects BD.

The numbers are what they are. So Blu-ray has a 5:1 hardware advantage and a 2:1 software advantage. Do studios care that the ratios don't match? I think they will focus on the 2:1 software advantage and not care how Blu-ray got that advantage. Bigger is better.

look at my previous post

Obviously if you can't get parts, you can't make hardware and there will be a premium when there is a shortage. Didn't think that would be too hard to figure out ;)

not sure what you mean by that. My point was if we assume add-on~ 160k and others ~80k (for a total of 240) then 1/3 are SA and 2/3 are AO, if we also have 80k SA on the BD side there is 1M PS3 and we are comparing 1080 vs 240 gives us 2:1

the way he phrased it it was more like 240 HD DVD players 240 BD players that would mean 1M PS3 are roughly the same as 240 players (i.e. BD SA=HD DVD SA so disks should be close and so PS3 adds an other SA in the movies to give 2:1 and so is equal to 240 players)

but in reality that is not what is happening.If that is not what's happening then what is? 1080 vs 240 is not 2:1. :confused: 480 vs 240 is 2:1. And why shouldn't the 360 add-on be considered as a dedicated player? It can't be used for anything else.