IMO, the whole war now hinges on what the studios do; I don't think Sony can win via marketing/the PS3 alone and I don't think HD DVD can win by price alone unless they have more studio support.

A lot of us thought that at least one studio would have already gone neutral by now or at least done/said something sane that would indicate they won't be leaving money on the table of the other side forever. But, apparently, as many of us seemed to realize after last CES - the studio allegiances aren't necessarily built on sales, what fans want, or anything sane - but rather a bunch of wierd bull-**** like back-door dealings, blind corporate loyalties, and god knows what else.

So, now that we know this and are where we are after about 10 months of war - what will it take for the studios to do something important or crazy? Is the general consensus now that the answer is basically "nothing will do it", that the war will be over before a studio switches sides or does something drastic? Or what?

Predict which studios may do something when and what will it take for that to occur! Thanks!

One possibilty is that the sales gap widens between BD and HD-DVD to 3:1 or even 4:1. Universal decides to go format neutral and people stop buying HD-DVD players and disks. The war is over.

It wouldn't have to be a studio. Could also be a retailer. A major sales shift in either direction (as mentioned above, 4:1 disc sales) could very well push an already biased retailer to drop whichever product is underperforming.

Cost of entry need to go down for mass adoption .
Prices will go down , to a leval people will buy at (a year?)
Bet both formats will be around years , why worry ?
I bought knowing that one might eventually go extinct , big deal ..
One fine day there will be no hd of either .
In the meantime I'll enjoy what comes available on my chosen format ...

It wouldn't have to be a studio. Could also be a retailer. A major sales shift in either direction (as mentioned above, 4:1 disc sales) could very well push an already biased retailer to drop whichever product is underperforming.


i believe this has already happened in australia. one of the largest retailers there is blu ray exclusive. of course here the opposite just happened as circuit city decided to add and promote hd dvd recently...

Cost of entry need to go down for mass adoption .
Prices will go down , to a leval people will buy at (a year?)
Bet both formats will be around years , why worry ?
I bought knowing that one might eventually go extinct , big deal ..
One fine day there will be no hd of either .
In the meantime I'll enjoy what comes available on my chosen format ...

I am not going to disagree with anything you said but what does it have to do with the subject of the thread.

It will take one side admitting defeat and ending this stupid war. It is a stupid pointless conflict that NOBODY wants and it does need to end and it will end. Studios, customers, and retail stores arent going to deal with this 2 format crap forever as it isnt going to work. Its hard enough telling people to upgrade to a new format when there are 2 formats they can choose from.

One possibilty is that the sales gap widens between BD and HD-DVD to 3:1 or even 4:1. Universal decides to go format neutral and people stop buying HD-DVD players and disks. The war is over.


You would like that to happen wouldn't ya? Sorry pal. Not going to happen. The real loosers are the bi-format guys.

You would like that to happen wouldn't ya? Sorry pal. Not going to happen. The real loosers are the bi-format guys.

I don't understand why people get so emotional over this, seriously, the most I stand to lose over this is about £1000, it really isn't a big deal, not anything I would have sleepless nights over. HD DVD is even better as it is so much cheaper with just a $499 entry price, you guys don't stand to lose very much in the grand scheme.

I don't understand why people get so emotional over this, seriously, the most I stand to lose over this is about £1000, it really isn't a big deal, not anything I would have sleepless nights over. HD DVD is even better as it is so much cheaper with just a $499 entry price, you guys don't stand to lose very much in the grand scheme.
Agreed. What's the big deal? We're early adopters, we should be used to being on the bleeding edge (and sometimes being wrong).

I'm only in for about $400 worth of discs thus far. My PS3 I don't count since it'll be a great gaming machine no matter what happens on the HD front, so my risk is low. HD DVD owners probably aren't in it for much either... the Toshiba units upscale well, and the 360 add-on is $200, so also minimal investment there.

If your investment in high definition concerns you enough to get emotional over it, you've probably spent more than you can reasonably afford on it, and that's no one's fault but your own.

I am not going to disagree with anything you said but what does it have to do with the subject of the thread.

For studios to do something major , I think mass adoption would be key ...
Players need to get within the reach of the mass consumer . Not a niche specialty market ...IMO
You can have a majority of titles from studios , but the average consumer may not adopt anyway till the cost gets within their reach ..

I hope hd takes off , but someone has to budge . Titles available and at a cost that people will bite at .
By studios doing something major , I'm thinking of them going neautral ....

Bob
Looking forward to an exciting year either format !!

Cost of entry need to go down for mass adoption .
Prices will go down , to a leval people will buy at (a year?)
Bet both formats will be around years , why worry ?
I bought knowing that one might eventually go extinct , big deal ..
One fine day there will be no hd of either .
In the meantime I'll enjoy what comes available on my chosen format ...

I'm tired of this price argument, if you simply shop selectively you can already get Hi-def dics for less money than DVD was charging when it first came out. DVDs consistently cost close to 30 bucks at first and even after that new ones almost always cost 20-25 dollars until the last year since Hi-def was launched and prices have come down.

Anyone remember why Warner and Paramount decided to throw support behind Blu-ray? Weren't they originally thought to be HD-DVD exclusive.

Paramount has been throwing some weird signs out lately. They've openly talked about supporting Blu-ray more in Europe and also recently one of their guys was talking about Blu-ray advantages.

Anyone remember why Warner and Paramount decided to throw support behind Blu-ray? Weren't they originally thought to be HD-DVD exclusive.

Paramount has been throwing some weird signs out lately. They've openly talked about supporting Blu-ray more in Europe and also recently one of their guys was talking about Blu-ray advantages.

The main advantage (Besides the sales lead and momentum) would be that if they supported BD exclusively and stepped up production it would further help to establish one format which is what everyone really wants anyways.

To me there are several paths that can lead to a Blu-ray victory.

1) The Blu-ray player base becomes so large that Studios can't ignore it.
2) A major retailer chooses the Blu-ray format exclusively.
3) Anyone of the the 3 remaining major studios that support HD-DVD go Blu-ray exclusive. In the case of Universal, if they simply start offering Blu-ray movies.

I'm a blu supporter at heart but I haven't got my PS3 yet (I'm also a Playstation supporter at heart).

Still, objectively speaking, I just don't see a single path that can lead to an HD-DVD victory. I see 1 path that could lead them to survival and some form of co-existence, though I believe that to be unlikely.

The biggest aces for HD-DVD are negated.
1) The high attach rate is negated by being so far behind in players available.
2) Universals huge library is already available on DVD and not likely to appeal to being replaced by J6P, on that note Universal has been a weak studio in recent studio releases IMO.
3) Lower player prices not only have not happened yet, it looks as though Blu-ray will be coming down at the same time. Also NPD indicates that despite lower prices HD-DVD stand alones don't sell better. Meaning, as long as people see limited content for HD-DVD it doesn't matter how much lower the price goes it won't help as much as they would like it to.

You would like that to happen wouldn't ya? Sorry pal. Not going to happen. The real loosers are the bi-format guys.

You can't possibly know what is going to happen. The scenario I suggested seems much more likely than Sony, Fox and Disney going neutral.

But, apparently, as many of us seemed to realize after last CES - the studio allegiances aren't necessarily built on sales, what fans want, or anything sane - but rather a bunch of wierd bull-**** like back-door dealings, blind corporate loyalties, and god knows what else.Maybe they could be built on sales, but many just don't understand them. For instance, sales in the long run and not just the short run. It would be completely rational for a studio to believe that sales will be better in the long run with one format winning than with a stalemate and 2 formats. Just because going neutral would help short term sales it doesn't mean that decision wouldn't hurt sales overall.

I think the end of the year will be interesting and we could definitely see some changes at next CES. For instance, if one format leads in sales runrate by 2:1 to 3:1 at the end of the year, there would likely be a lot of pressure on studios on the lower side of that to go neutral at the least. I could see Paramount following a decision by another studio by going exclusive themselves. Can't say which side they would go exclusive to as it depends on which side can show themselves to be the likely winner by enough to cause something major like that. Should be an interesting rest of the year.

--Darin

For studios to do something major , I think mass adoption would be key ...
Players need to get within the reach of the mass consumer . Not a niche specialty market ...IMO
You can have a majority of titles from studios , but the average consumer may not adopt anyway till the cost gets within their reach ..


What's slowing adoption isn't cost of titles or even really cost of players. Its the format war and the relatively low number of people who have HDTVs. Neither format can be mass market until HD itself is.

Hopefully the format war is resolved soon. Mass market HD is almost here.

What's slowing adoption isn't cost of titles or even really cost of players.

What gives you that idea ?

Time. That is the simple answer. Unless there is a settlement between the two formats they will both exist and the studios will ultimately service both. It's anybody's guess how long it will take, but I would bet no sooner than 2008 before the exclusives consider servicing both.

It is certainly in the studios best interests to pare this down to one format. However, that was known from the get-go and they still couldn't get it done. Nearly a year has gone by and they both continue to travel down separate paths accumulating sizable (relative to each other) installed bases. The efforts on both sides seem to only be getting more aggressive with many free discs offered with hardware and regular sale pricing deals.

The best case scenario is that the totalHD discs become economical and reliable to produce and this war will no longer matter.

To me there are several paths that can lead to a Blu-ray victory.

1) The Blu-ray player base becomes so large that Studios can't ignore it.
2) A major retailer chooses the Blu-ray format exclusively.
3) Anyone of the the 3 remaining major studios that support HD-DVD go Blu-ray exclusive. In the case of Universal, if they simply start offering Blu-ray movies.

I'm a blu supporter at heart but I haven't got my PS3 yet (I'm also a Playstation supporter at heart).

Still, objectively speaking, I just don't see a single path that can lead to an HD-DVD victory. I see 1 path that could lead them to survival and some form of co-existence, though I believe that to be unlikely.

The biggest aces for HD-DVD are negated.
1) The high attach rate is negated by being so far behind in players available.
2) Universals huge library is already available on DVD and not likely to appeal to being replaced by J6P, on that note Universal has been a weak studio in recent studio releases IMO.
3) Lower player prices not only have not happened yet, it looks as though Blu-ray will be coming down at the same time. Also NPD indicates that despite lower prices HD-DVD stand alones don't sell better. Meaning, as long as people see limited content for HD-DVD it doesn't matter how much lower the price goes it won't help as much as they would like it to.

You a Blu-ray supporter? Nooooooooooooooo

You're about as objective as Fox news. Anytime someone says "I can't see...." that person is admitting they have a myopic view of the situation. There are very few truly objective patrons on the AVS BD/HD DVD.

What gives you that idea ?

I remember the DVD launch. The Sony player was $1000, the DVDs around $25-$30. I bought the Sony in mid 97. I still don't own either HD format. I have an HDTV and ample disposable income as do most of my friends, only one of which has HD-DVD via the XBox addon.

You're about as objective as Fox news.

"Objective" and "Fox News" don't belong together in the same sentence. Neither does "Andy Parsons" or "Amir" with the word "impartial" though. :cool:

"Objective" and "Fox News" don't belong together in the same sentence. Neither does "Andy Parsons" or "Amir" with the word "impartial" though. :cool:

Truer words... those guys are paid to be impartial. Hell I won't lie..I think HD DVD has about a %33 chance of survival. I do like rooting for the underdogs so there goes my impartiality. Frankly the desire to run competing xxx format out of business is kind of ironic. Monopolies never end up benefitting the consumer.

Microsoft still charges up to $500 for an OS.
Clear Channel still plays garbage on the radio
And Telephone service is still overpriced despite Ma Bell being broken up decades ago.

Let these f***ers fight it out and give me good pricing. By the time I go neutral my actual cash outlay will likely be under $500. Hell I'm taking advantage of the 7 free discs from Toshiba/VE soon and when I grab a BD player it'll be a steal probably 249 in late 2008 if need be.

I'm all about my loot. So hell don't let the signature fool you...I'm loving that Blu-ray is around and if I can keep this battle balanced in "my" favor which is two companies competing to the point of diminished margins I'm a happy camper. I'm no fool..whatever I buy will continue to play regardless of what happens to the format.

As was mentioned by an earlier poster mass adoption of HDTVs in the US will accelerate the process. Mass HDTV adoption will probably be required if one format is going to get a large enough advantage to really declare victory.

If the history of DVD, or more accurately DVD vs. DIVX, is any indication Universal, Fox and Disney will be the last to jump ship. For arguments sake look at how long Disney waited before publishing DVDs, there were almost 5 million DVD players in the US market before Disney started publishing DVDs. So about the time HD-DVD has 5 Million users in the US Disney will probably start publishing on HD-DVD. I would imagine that the same would need to be true about BluRay before Universal looks at making BluRay Discs.

If it is true that HD-DVD is cheaper to start producing than BluRay I would think that it would be an easier financial decision to start making HD-DVDs than it would be to start making BluRay disks. This would seem to be even truer if the studio was already using VC-1 for their BluRay products. If the costs for the two formats are the same and Sony isn’t subsidizing certain studios as has been rumored it should be just as easy for a company to start making BluRay disks.

Studios will only leave money on the table for so long, but I don’t think we’ll see any studio make a shift until there are well over 4 million installed users for one of the formats.

One possibilty is that the sales gap widens between BD and HD-DVD to 3:1 or even 4:1. Universal decides to go format neutral and people stop buying HD-DVD players and disks. The war is over.

keep you fingers crossed. :D

one question with one is easier to achieve?

1. sell 2mil players to sell <>700k movies :( :(

or

2. sell 0.2mil players to sell <700K movies :D :D

answer please ;)

When it gets to a point where a title can sell 1 million copies in one format, studios will switch.

i believe this has already happened in australia. one of the largest retailers there is blu ray exclusive. of course here the opposite just happened as circuit city decided to add and promote hd dvd recently...
Yes, in Australia JB Hifi recently made a massive press release in conjunction with the official Blu-ray launch stating thye aree a blu-ray exclusive retailer.

Here is a pic I took in my local JB store here in Canberra, Capital City of Australia showing just how "exclusive" JB is.

You a Blu-ray supporter? Nooooooooooooooo

You're about as objective as Fox news. Anytime someone says "I can't see...." that person is admitting they have a myopic view of the situation. There are very few truly objective patrons on the AVS BD/HD DVD.

You know, if you had an argument against the points that would be one thing. But you don't know me at all. And comparing me to fox news is low, after all I don't even like republicans.

My view is not prejudiced in the fact that I simply gave reasons as to why I cannot see an HD-DVD victory, I did say I saw a way to stalemate. If you could point out any way in which you see and HD-DVD victory, then please do.

You can't possibly know what is going to happen. The scenario I suggested seems much more likely than Sony, Fox and Disney going neutral.

Only in a perfect world can you expect 100% compliance. This is a new battle with new rules. Who is to say the victor will take all?

Yes, in Australia JB Hifi recently made a massive press release in conjunction with the official Blu-ray launch stating thye aree a blu-ray exclusive retailer.

Here is a pic I took in my local JB store here in Canberra, Capital City of Australia showing just how "exclusive" JB is.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=77392

oh dear ...... maybe 'exclusive' has different meaning in Australia. They will be selling the XBox Add On anyway :D

It wouldn't have to be a studio. Could also be a retailer. A major sales shift in either direction (as mentioned above, 4:1 disc sales) could very well push an already biased retailer to drop whichever product is underperforming.

From what I've heard, HD-DVD is actually selling marginally better at Wal-Mart, compared to BD (sales are so close, it is practically a tie, ~51/49). What if Wal-Mart announced they would carry only HD-DVD, since it is the better selling format for them?

Wal-Mart supposedly accounts for ~40% of DVD sales in North America, so wouldn't Wal-Mart exclusively going HD-DVD lock in a victory for HD-DVD. Studios would almost be forced to support it them.

However, for Wal-Mart to go exclusive, I think the margin would need to be greater than 51/49. I do find it interesting though that HD-DVD outperforms BD there, when outlets monitored by Nielsen seem to indicate the opposite. Is this a sign that J6P who shops primarily at Wal-Mart will be more likely to go HD-DVD?

From what I've heard, HD-DVD is actually selling marginally better at Wal-Mart, compared to BD (sales are so close, it is practically a tie, ~51/49). What if Wal-Mart announced they would carry only HD-DVD, since it is the better selling format for them?

Wal-Mart supposedly accounts for ~40% of DVD sales in North America, so wouldn't Wal-Mart exclusively going HD-DVD lock in a victory for HD-DVD. Studios would almost be forced to support it them.

However, for Wal-Mart to go exclusive, I think the margin would need to be greater than 51/49. I do find it interesting though that HD-DVD outperforms BD there, when outlets monitored by Nielsen seem to indicate the opposite. Is this a sign that J6P who shops primarily at Wal-Mart will be more likely to go HD-DVD?

Could be that more price sensitive people shop at Walmart? This would also suggest, though, that their share of HD is smaller than their share of DVDs. Unfortunately, these are only rumours. The bestselling rankings at Walmart often show BD in the lead (such as Babel now and The Depearted when the BD disc was still in stock). But just as rumours, that is not much to go by.

IMO, the whole war now hinges on what the studios do; I don't think Sony can win via marketing/the PS3 alone and I don't think HD DVD can win by price alone unless they have more studio support.

A lot of us thought that at least one studio would have already gone neutral by now or at least done/said something sane that would indicate they won't be leaving money on the table of the other side forever. But, apparently, as many of us seemed to realize after last CES - the studio allegiances aren't necessarily built on sales, what fans want, or anything sane - but rather a bunch of wierd bull-**** like back-door dealings, blind corporate loyalties, and god knows what else.

So, now that we know this and are where we are after about 10 months of war - what will it take for the studios to do something important or crazy? Is the general consensus now that the answer is basically "nothing will do it", that the war will be over before a studio switches sides or does something drastic? Or what?

Predict which studios may do something when and what will it take for that to occur! Thanks!
I don't think the studios are going to do anything for a long time. The so called "war" is going to continue until the masses have made a decision, and it could very well be None of the above.
J

Could be that more price sensitive people shop at Walmart? This would also suggest, though, that their share of HD is smaller than their share of DVDs. Unfortunately, these are only rumours. The bestselling rankings at Walmart often show BD in the lead (such as Babel now and The Depearted when the BD disc was still in stock). But just as rumours, that is not much to go by.


Really, because I check the online bestsellers weekly and I've never seen Babel or Departed on BD have the top spot. I've never even seen Babell in the Top 10. Usually HD-DVD has the top spot (Casino Royale has seemed to dethrone HD-DVD for the past couple of weeks though).

Current Wal-Mart online Top 10

1. Casino Royale (BD)
2. Happy Feet (HD-DVD)
3. Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas (HD-DVD)
4. Sopranos (BD)
5. MI Collection (HD-DVD)
6. Smallville (HD-DVD)
7. MI Collection (BD)
8. Departed (HD-DVD)
9. Night at the Museum (BD)
10. Open Season (BD)

Really, because I check the online bestsellers weekly and I've never seen Babel or Departed on BD have the top spot. I've never even seen Babell in the Top 10. Usually HD-DVD has the top spot (Casino Royale has seemed to dethrone HD-DVD for the past couple of weeks though).


You can simply search on a title and sort by bestselling. This is useful for head-to-head comparisons. If you did this for Babel before they ran out of HD DVD (since yesterday), BD ranked higher than HD. If you did this for Departed before they ran out of BD, then there was a back-and-forth: from BD leading to HD leading and back to BD leading.

Anyways, we know zilch about how they do their rankings & whether their HD sales are anywhere near their regular DVDs. It is definitely very unlikely that they of all chains would take a lead in this and risk antagonizing CE and studios supporting either format before there are much more convincing data.

You can simply search on a title and sort by bestselling. This is useful for head-to-head comparisons. If you did this for Babel before they ran out of HD DVD (since yesterday), BD ranked higher than HD. If you did this for Departed before they ran out of BD, then there was a back-and-forth: from BD leading to HD leading and back to BD leading.

Anyways, we know zilch about how they do their rankings & whether their HD sales are anywhere near their regular DVDs. It is definitely very unlikely that they of all chains would take a lead in this and risk antagonizing CE and studios supporting either format before there are much more convincing data.


No retailers hi-def sales are near the levels of regular DVD's. To me, this isn't a metric to even consider at this point in the game, because no retailer would pass that litmus test.

I think everyone has fallen to the fallacy that Nielsen sales data will decide the format war. However, look at Deep Discount. They are one of the largest web e-tailers of DVD's and related merchandise (if you exclude x-rated material, they easily do more volume than DVD Empire). They don't report their sales to Nielsen. And 13 of their top 20 selling discs are HD-DVD discs.

From what I've been able to gather, there are many retailers who sell more HD-DVD than they do Blu-ray. A few do report to Nielsen, but most do not. So why Nielsen shows a 2-1 sales advantage, people shouldn't be fooled into thinking there is actually a 2-1 sales advantage. I think you will find the reality to be that the average volume per title is roughly equal for both formats. However, BD needs 5-10X as much hardware to achieve that level, which to me, puts HD-DVD in the lead.

If something doesn't drastically change for either format, when compared to the last three months, then I think it is inevitable that all studios will be forced to go dual format. Until they all do go dual format, the adoption of hi-def will be hindered.

I'm surprised that the BD people aren't just saying to hell with Universal, afterall they always say its the only major studio that HD has, so why should they be worried. They claim better format, better support yahda yahda yahda, surely this one studio can't prevent them from winning.
I don't understand why one format has to win in the first place, both formats should be able to stick around and compete with each other, just like the video game consoles, having only one doesn't leave any room for competion, look at how this has affected this so called war so far-with lower prices, and sales everywhere.
Instead of arguing and complaining we should be hoping that both formats stick around so that each has inncentive to give us the consumer a reason to buy their products, because we could easily go to someone else if its not the best deal when the choice is available to us.

I'm surprised that the BD people aren't just saying to hell with Universal, afterall they always say its the only major studio that HD has, so why should they be worried. They claim better format, better support yahda yahda yahda, surely this one studio can't prevent them from winning.

not a matter of winning, but that we want to watch movies in HD. Obviously we are not HD DVD fanboys to prefer to pay 500$ instead of 25$ to watch SD DVD.

I don't understand why one format has to win in the first place,

because J6P won't buy until it does. J6P does not care about only watching some movies and does not care about buying 2 players to do the job that one can do.

look at how this has affected this so called war so far-with lower prices, and sales everywhere.

and look at DVD, prices dropped as fast (and from 1000$ now they are 25$) sales existed in the same way early on but number of stand alone players and disk sales were much higher.

Only in a perfect world can you expect 100% compliance. This is a new battle with new rules. Who is to say the victor will take all?

A new battle? You don't really believe what you are writing do you. There is nothing new about this battle. It is very similar to the VHS/Betamax format war and the DVD-Audio/SACD format war. Unless one format wins (lik VHS), both will probably lose (like DVD_Audio/SACD).

From what I've heard, HD-DVD is actually selling marginally better at Wal-Mart, compared to BD (sales are so close, it is practically a tie, ~51/49). What if Wal-Mart announced they would carry only HD-DVD, since it is the better selling format for them?

Wal-Mart supposedly accounts for ~40% of DVD sales in North America, so wouldn't Wal-Mart exclusively going HD-DVD lock in a victory for HD-DVD. Studios would almost be forced to support it them.

However, for Wal-Mart to go exclusive, I think the margin would need to be greater than 51/49. I do find it interesting though that HD-DVD outperforms BD there, when outlets monitored by Nielsen seem to indicate the opposite. Is this a sign that J6P who shops primarily at Wal-Mart will be more likely to go HD-DVD?

You got a link confirming Walmarts sales? And if that is the case, and Walmart is 40% of the market, then that must mean Blu-ray is selling much better than HD-DVD at stores like BB, CC, Target, etc. in order to get up to the 2:1 ratio Nielson is showing.

Nielson may not record their data, but they likely extrapolate it.

Microsoft still charges up to $500 for an OS.
Clear Channel still plays garbage on the radio
And Telephone service is still overpriced despite Ma Bell being broken up decades ago.


And yet I can buy a DVD player for $30.

answer please ;)

Sorry xboxboi, you are so hopelessly biased that debating you would be pointless. Kosty seems format neutral by comparison.

No retailers hi-def sales are near the levels of regular DVD's.

Obviously, I didn't mean whether their HD sales were comparable to DVD sales on an absolute basis :)

I meant on a relative basis. The fact that they have 40% of the DVD market means in no way that they also have 40% of the HD market. Given the low sales numbers, HD is still in an early adopter stage, and early adopters nearly by definition behave differently than the general population. My guess is that if you would do a tally of HDs bought by people on the forum, the percentage bought on Walmart would be way lower than 40%.

not a matter of winning, but that we want to watch movies in HD. Obviously we are not HD DVD fanboys to prefer to pay 500$ instead of 25$ to watch SD DVD.



because J6P won't buy until it does. J6P does not care about only watching some movies and does not care about buying 2 players to do the job that one can do.



and look at DVD, prices dropped as fast (and from 1000$ now they are 25$) sales existed in the same way early on but number of stand alone players and disk sales were much higher.

I don't think J6P cares about hi-def at all, so how does that factor into your argument. At the end of 2006, only 16% of homes had a hi-def television. That means the other 84% (J6P), have no reason to even own a hi-def player.

You got a link confirming Walmarts sales? And if that is the case, and Walmart is 40% of the market, then that must mean Blu-ray is selling much better than HD-DVD at stores like BB, CC, Target, etc. in order to get up to the 2:1 ratio Nielson is showing.

Nielson may not record their data, but they likely extrapolate it.

You obviously don't know how Nielsen works. Nielsen does not extrapolate any sales numbers, especially not for retailers who don't participate with Nielsen. The Nielsen numbers are for actual discs sold at retailers who participate.

At best, Nielsen accounts for 50-60% of BD and HD-DVD discs sold. At worse, it may be down around 20-25% of hi-def discs sold. The 2:1 ratio that everyone likes to spout off about is just a ratio of Nielsen sales figures. In reality, HD-DVD could still be outselling BD by 2:1, depending on how the other 40-80% of sales are at the retail outlets not tracked by Nielsen.

Yes, in Australia JB Hifi recently made a massive press release in conjunction with the official Blu-ray launch stating thye aree a blu-ray exclusive retailer.

Here is a pic I took in my local JB store here in Canberra, Capital City of Australia showing just how "exclusive" JB is.

Wouldn't taking a picture of the HD DVD section have spoken volumes over a title in your hand?

I remember the DVD launch.

Then you will also remember that it was a major upgrade - both in quality and convinience. If you see the last two decades the only formats that have succeeded are the ones that add convinience and most of them have been from analog to digital.

At best, Nielsen accounts for 50-60% of BD and HD-DVD discs sold. At worse, it may be down around 20-25% of hi-def discs sold. The 2:1 ratio that everyone likes to spout off about is just a ratio of Nielsen sales figures. In reality, HD-DVD could still be outselling BD by 2:1, depending on how the other 40-80% of sales are at the retail outlets not tracked by Nielsen.

Big assumptions there:

- Representativeness of Nielsen data, with some random percentages thrown in to give weight to your claim

- Nielsen erring in Blu-ray's favor

Do you have any proof for the above?

"Objective" and "Fox News" don't belong together in the same sentence. Neither does "Andy Parsons" or "Amir" with the word "impartial" though. :cool:

Don't forget "Objective" and "CNN" or "Objective" and CBS, or "Objective" and NBC or "Ojective" and ABC or "Objective" and MSNBC" and ..

Foxnews doesn't seem "objective" to liberal wimps because it is the only news source that dares to challenge the way they see the world.

One way for HD-DVD to win, survive or force a stalemate (depending on your view) would be, IMHO, to cut a deal with Walmart. Drop player prices to sub-$200, agree to sell HD-DVD discs at a very small premium to SD DVDs and watch mass-adoption occur. Of course, this could very well cost Toshiba every nickel they have, but Walmart isn't so much a market-taker as a market-maker. If J6P walking into Walmart could get a HD-DVD player at a moderate price premium to DVD and buy media at a moderate price premium, the market for HD-DVD would indeed be "made" and HD-DVD would almost ensure their survival.

The question becomes, would Walmart do such a thing? What incentives, either way, would Walmart have in being the pre-eminant force in determining the outcome of the HD disc format war? What concessions (royalties for IP?) would Walmart extract from Toshiba and the HD-DVD group? How would/could Walmart use even the offer of this as a wedge vs. Sony?

It seems to me that if you're Toshiba and Sony has beaten you to the punch and wrapped up the content production side, that perhaps your best (only?) bet is to wrap up the product distribution end as a way to force stalemate.

To me there are several paths that can lead to a Blu-ray victory.

1) The Blu-ray player base becomes so large that Studios can't ignore it.
2) A major retailer chooses the Blu-ray format exclusively.
3) Anyone of the the 3 remaining major studios that support HD-DVD go Blu-ray exclusive. In the case of Universal, if they simply start offering Blu-ray movies.

I'm a blu supporter at heart but I haven't got my PS3 yet (I'm also a Playstation supporter at heart).

Still, objectively speaking, I just don't see a single path that can lead to an HD-DVD victory. I see 1 path that could lead them to survival and some form of co-existence, though I believe that to be unlikely.

The biggest aces for HD-DVD are negated.
1) The high attach rate is negated by being so far behind in players available.
2) Universals huge library is already available on DVD and not likely to appeal to being replaced by J6P, on that note Universal has been a weak studio in recent studio releases IMO.
3) Lower player prices not only have not happened yet, it looks as though Blu-ray will be coming down at the same time. Also NPD indicates that despite lower prices HD-DVD stand alones don't sell better. Meaning, as long as people see limited content for HD-DVD it doesn't matter how much lower the price goes it won't help as much as they would like it to.


This is all wishfull thinking in my opinion, the ps3 could have sold like hot cakes(which it didn't) and have a huge blu ray player base, but blu ray sales haven't really reflected the adoption rate of the ps3. Remembering that the ps3 should primarily be considered a games console even though sony are pushing it the be the stand alone home entertainment piece.

It looks as though sony are on to a winner with blu ray, on paper getting blu ray players out because of the ps3 and thus supporting the format.

A few problems lie with this, most playstaion players haven't made the move to the ps3 because of the price, the lack of games and the fact the the ps2 is still the number 1 console according to sales figures. It's the games that will make gamers jump to get a ps3, and in turn move on to the blu ray format, but then I use my original statement and say; just because there's ps3's out there doesn't mean everyone's going to go out and buy blu ray discs's.


On the HD DVD side of things; it needs more advertising push from Toshiba, being the primary HD DVD player supplier. The low end Toshiba A2 player has a great price with exellent performance but prices for players should still come down lower. Deals should be made with chain stores for when buying a Toshiba HDTV that you get the A2 for a discounted price or for free. With HD DVD it really is about getting the players out there and in to the hands of the consumer, educating them on STD DVD and HD DVD.

Something that we haven't seen on blu ray is the HD DVD Combo format which needs to be pushed for STD DVD and HD DVD. Also prices for combo format disc's need to come down in price, it's all about converting the std's to HD DVD.

Another nice feature HD DVD does have; is full upconveted backwards compatability with STD DVD, which is nice consider the HIGH END Toshiba XA2 HD DVD Player upconverts perfectly.



Both formats, HD DVD and Blu Ray should be pushing much more than they are, there's more that can be done from both camps, but my personal opinion is that this format war will no longer be a war after awhile, the 2 formats will co-exist, and by this time HD DVD and Blu Ray will be standard in all DVD style players, the competing companies with not merge but accept business side of co-existence.

Thanks Carl Mulder.
hdmoviesource.

You obviously don't know how Nielsen works. Nielsen does not extrapolate any sales numbers, especially not for retailers who don't participate with Nielsen. The Nielsen numbers are for actual discs sold at retailers who participate.

At best, Nielsen accounts for 50-60% of BD and HD-DVD discs sold. At worse, it may be down around 20-25% of hi-def discs sold. The 2:1 ratio that everyone likes to spout off about is just a ratio of Nielsen sales figures. In reality, HD-DVD could still be outselling BD by 2:1, depending on how the other 40-80% of sales are at the retail outlets not tracked by Nielsen.

Do you have a link from Nielson showing how they calculate this? There should be something on their site, or Videoscans site telling how they make estimates in general for the other polling services they provide. Just like NPD explains how they do theirs.

NPD does their reporting exactly how I mentioned, they only have 50-60% of the sample and estimate the rest.

And back to my original question, did anyone actually have a link of walmarts reported sales?

I doubt your last statement simply because it's not probable. All the information we have availabe from Amazon, dvdempire, and every store reported by Nielson seems to indicate otherwise. It's highly unlikely that stores are selling much differently than other comparable stores. Target = Walmart, BB = CC, Amazon.com = dvdempire.com. Usually the same store types sell in similar trends.

The question becomes, would Walmart do such a thing? What incentives, either way, would Walmart have in being the pre-eminant force in determining the outcome of the HD disc format war? What concessions (royalties for IP?) would Walmart extract from Toshiba and the HD-DVD group? How would/could Walmart use even the offer of this as a wedge vs. Sony?

It seems to me that if you're Toshiba and Sony has beaten you to the punch and wrapped up the content production side, that perhaps your best (only?) bet is to wrap up the product distribution end as a way to force stalemate.

I'm sure both sides want to "win," but once you sell that first $200 player or $15 HD disc, their is no going back. If you still don't win or you don't sell a heap of players, you've just cut your own throat. On the outside HD can only sell to the 30% who own HDTVs, that markets growing, but what percentage of it even buys movies, and what percentage that do will see an advantage in upgrading their DVDs at any cost?

Walmart is a double edged sword, once they get their hooks in you to the degree that your dependent on them, they start telling you what you have to sell for. That's how they nearly put Rubbermaid out of business.

It's sounding more and more like those Chinese HD DVD players are going to be a reality, but I'll venture to guess both camps are a little uneasy about what their pricing structure is going to do to them, especially if the end up at Walmart.

The other thing to consider is that though the studios and electronics manufacturers made agreements, they don't necessarily act as one. Walmart may not give a crap about $200 players for $29 disks of movies that have been haunting their $5.99 DVD tubs for the last two years.

This is all wishfull thinking in my opinion, the ps3 could have sold like hot cakes(which it didn't) and have a huge blu ray player base, but blu ray sales haven't really reflected the adoption rate of the ps3. Remembering that the ps3 should primarily be considered a games console even though sony are pushing it the be the stand alone home entertainment piece.

It looks as though sony are on to a winner with blu ray, on paper getting blu ray players out because of the ps3 and thus supporting the format.

A few problems lie with this, most playstaion players haven't made the move to the ps3 because of the price, the lack of games and the fact the the ps2 is still the number 1 console according to sales figures. It's the games that will make gamers jump to get a ps3, and in turn move on to the blu ray format, but then I use my original statement and say; just because there's ps3's out there doesn't mean everyone's going to go out and buy blu ray discs's.


On the HD DVD side of things; it needs more advertising push from Toshiba, being the primary HD DVD player supplier. The low end Toshiba A2 player has a great price with exellent performance but prices for players should still come down lower. Deals should be made with chain stores for when buying a Toshiba HDTV that you get the A2 for a discounted price or for free. With HD DVD it really is about getting the players out there and in to the hands of the consumer, educating them on STD DVD and HD DVD.

Something that we haven't seen on blu ray is the HD DVD Combo format which needs to be pushed for STD DVD and HD DVD. Also prices for combo format disc's need to come down in price, it's all about converting the std's to HD DVD.



Both formats, HD DVD and Blu Ray should be pushing much more than they are, there's more that can be done from both camps, but my personal opinion is that this format war will no longer be a war after awhile, the 2 formats will co-exist, and by this time HD DVD and Blu Ray will be standard in all DVD style players, the competing companies with not merge but accept business side of co-existence.

Thanks Carl Mulder.
hdmoviesource.

I was just pointing out some things I think could cause Movie Studios to take notice.

I never said just because people had a PS3 that would mean everyone was buying discs. But the larger the base is the more discs will be bought. And it is likely over time the attach rate of discs will increase.

Toshiba is already estimated to be losing just as much if not more money than Sony is per PS3. Parts estimates for the A2 I believe were somewhere around 700 bucks. It's likely Toshiba simply can't lower the price any more right now until part prices come down more.

I'm curious as to why you would think Blu-ray needs combo discs? I don't think combos are the way to go at all. How likely is it that a person still buying DVDs will want the combo? Even *if* they plan on going Hi-def, does that make sense to do at such a high price? It's likely they can get the DVD version for 10-15 dollars less. If they have the DVD they can just upscale it.

It makes more sense to start buying Hi-def movies when you finally have a Hi-def player. More players to me is the only thing that can bring adoption rates higher. So therefor they need a lower price point.

I see several issues with Total HD. Warner claims it's not more expensive, but I doubt that when you factor in things like additional transfer time, and manhours needed to do it.

Secondly the LG player is 1200 freaking bucks and you can access any features. All it does is read the discs and play them. That play cost will not come down quickly enough to compete with either format.

It's sounding more and more like those Chinese HD DVD players are going to be a reality, but I'll venture to guess both camps are a little uneasy about what their pricing structure is going to do to them, especially if the end up at Walmart.



How do we know these Chinese players will be any cheaper, I find it very likely that Chinese manufacturers may want to retail these at 4 or 5 hundred dollars.

I haven't heard much about these. Only that Some people are saying we "might" see 300 dollar players by the fall.

I was just pointing out some things I think could cause Movie Studios to take notice.

I never said just because people had a PS3 that would mean everyone was buying discs. But the larger the base is the more discs will be bought. And it is likely over time the attach rate of discs will increase.

Toshiba is already estimated to be losing just as much if not more money than Sony is per PS3. Parts estimates for the A2 I believe were somewhere around 700 bucks. It's likely Toshiba simply can't lower the price any more right now until part prices come down more.

I'm curious as to why you would think Blu-ray needs combo discs? I don't think combos are the way to go at all. How likely is it that a person still buying DVDs will want the combo? Even *if* they plan on going Hi-def, does that make sense to do at such a high price? It's likely they can get the DVD version for 10-15 dollars less. If they have the DVD they can just upscale it.

It makes more sense to start buying Hi-def movies when you finally have a Hi-def player. More players to me is the only thing that can bring adoption rates higher. So therefor they need a lower price point.

I see several issues with Total HD. Warner claims it's not more expensive, but I doubt that when you factor in things like additional transfer time, and manhours needed to do it.

Secondly the LG player is 1200 freaking bucks and you can access any features. All it does is read the discs and play them. That play cost will not come down quickly enough to compete with either format.

Some points you make are true, but as for Toshiba losing $700, or you meant that the player should cost $700 to cover costs is a little bogus considering it retails for $699?

The reason the combo format is a good thing is for STD DVD adoption, not for HD DVD owners.

Agree with the LG comment, to priced for enthusiasts, it's not priced to take over the market and bring the to formats together, this is the plan, but it's along way off.

The most idiotic problem I feel is that the total HD, HD DVD one side and Blu Ray the other is that they'll both be VC1 encodes anyway, which means the transfers are identical and negates both formats into one format anyway. The only way we will see a difference in quality is if the more advanced VC1 is used on HD DVD and mpeg2 on the Blu Ray, but I don't see them using two different codecs.

If your investment in high definition concerns you enough to get emotional over it, you've probably spent more than you can reasonably afford on it, and that's no one's fault but your own.

Bingo. How many threads prove this over and over.

There is nothing new about this battle. It is very similar to the VHS/Betamax format war.....

Except that studios releaseed on both VHS and Beta until the winner emerged, and that was because of manufacturing support for VHS and pricing.

I've said it many times before, but consumers care about conveniece and price, not quality... while the two camps battle this out, Apple, Sony and Microsoft will probably disfuse the optical disc formats longevity and deliver us mediocre quality HD-Lite to our Xbox 360, Apple TV and PS3's...

In the end, I think this war will not end with a winner, but will be like CD's vs MP3's.... convenience and price will win out, not quality.

That being said, there was a very interesting article in Video Business which talks about the recent standardization of the HD DVD format for China, and it appears as though the Chinese manufactureres will very quickly start making players that can easily be adapted to work in the US and global markets...


Video Business Article (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6423230.html)

"THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT difference between the China-only HD DVD and the version used in the rest of the world is the codec used to encode content.

In the rest of the world, HD DVD supports VC-1, H.264 and MPEG2. The China-only version supports only the Chinese-developed Advanced Video System (AVS).

In nearly every other respect, including the physical specifications of the disc, the interactive layer and the optics, the two versions are identical.

The purpose of the China-only version is to spare Chinese manufacturers the licensing fees associated with the global codecs on decks sold in China and to help propel China into the ranks of technology developers, rather than simply manufacturers.

But manufacturing HD DVD players they will be. And once those production lines are up and running, swapping out the codecs for their outside OEM clients is no big deal.

In other words, HD DVD just secured the inside track on a potentially vast new market. The economies of scale that could result from China’s embrace of HD DVD is likely to have significant impact on retail prices in every market that sources its electronics from China—that is, the rest of the world."

In other words, HD DVD just secured the inside track on a potentially vast new market. The economies of scale that could result from China’s embrace of HD DVD is likely to have significant impact on retail prices in every market that sources its electronics from China—that is, the rest of the world."

Great, just what we need. The war decided by the lowest common denominator of product. Just what I was railing against in the CePRO article last week. :rolleyes:

Great, just what we need. The war decided by the lowest common denominator of product. Just what I was railing against in the CePRO article last week. :rolleyes:


Yet how can this not be the fate of future electronics? I like the notion of HD being made affordable, IMO it's the best shot it has.

That said, awhile back I bought a couple of those cheapo "Cyberhome" players at Target for bedroom players, and because (at least at the time) a slight of hand with the remote made them region-free and PAL compatible, but they were junk and I knew it. How important is brand-name to the consumer, do a lot of people own no-name brands as their primary DVD players?

I would think some people with BD through PS3 will pick up a cheap HD DVD stand-alone if they get sick of waiting for studio neutrality. Not everyone considers format alliance all that important.

How do we know these Chinese players will be any cheaper, I find it very likely that Chinese manufacturers may want to retail these at 4 or 5 hundred dollars.

I haven't heard much about these. Only that Some people are saying we "might" see 300 dollar players by the fall.


I would think if they want to compete without name recognition they have to under-cut Toshiba's cheapest player by at least a third. It's how they enter every other market.

Certainly, AVS Forum members aside, the majority of Americans buy based upon price as the overwhelming attribute. For proof of this, look no further than Walmart. If you want to look further than Walmart, look at retailing concepts in general (especially electronics). The emergance (sp?) of "Big Box" electronics retailers like Best Buy speaks volumes about American preference for price. In general, retail has migrated to the low-cost/self-service model. Don't get me wrong, I'm not necessarily in favor of this migration . . . it's souless and lacks substance in my view . . . but it is what it is.

Having said that, a market that gravitates to the "lowest common denominator" is one that is actually balancing the cost/benefit of a particular technology. Specifically, how much extra am "I" willing to pay for that last remaining X% increase in picture or audio fidelity. Again, this isn't always a good thing, but it is what it is, and it is how consumer markets (generally) work.

Having said that, a market that gravitates to the "lowest common denominator" is one that is actually balancing the cost/benefit of a particular technology. Specifically, how much extra am "I" willing to pay for that last remaining X% increase in picture or audio fidelity. Again, this isn't always a good thing, but it is what it is, and it is how consumer markets (generally) work.

It's quality in general, and inhibits truly better product to maintain proper value in the mind of the consumer because it will inevitably be compared to the $20 paperweight next to it. And you're right--left to their own devices, most consumers will ignore the benefits of the better unit and go el-cheapo.

Crap like that doesn't exist in a vacuum. We saw it happen to TVs, where Chinese garb came into town (completely unwilling/unable to compete with better brands) and drove the price down on everything. That may seem better, until manufacturers can't make enough money to justify improving them over time and maintaining the quality they were known for.

We saw it happen to TVs, where Chinese garb came into town (completely unwilling/unable to compete with better brands) and drove the price down on everything. That may seem better, until manufacturers can't make enough money to justify improving them over time and maintaining the quality they were known for.Funny. :) While I was in China, Taiwan, etc. a few weeks ago meeting with OEMs/ODMs, they were complaining about falling prices on HDTVs -- they were being asked a few times a week to lower their prices. As a result, feature and quality development on even mid-range HDTVs has come to a grinding halt. Only when a feature can be added at no extra cost is it incorporated.

Funny. :) While I was in China, Taiwan, etc. a few weeks ago meeting with OEMs/ODMs, they were complaining about falling prices on HDTVs -- they were being asked a few times a week to lower their prices. As a result, feature and quality development on even mid-range HDTVs has come to a grinding halt. Only when a feature can be added at no extra cost is it incorporated.

Sounds like an endless circle, except for those that aren't obsessed with having a Wal-Mart presence (and I can see why they'd want to).

:(

stormprophet,

How do we know these Chinese players will be any cheaper, I find it very likely that Chinese manufacturers may want to retail these at 4 or 5 hundred dollars.

Because the chinese just got permission to make a Chinese specific HD DVD player. The only difference is in the supported codec. So, if they are making tons of players for their domestic market, the cost per player is lower, given that they only have to "swap out one chip" to make a HD DVD player for the rest of the world.

...its quite simple...from a non-owner, BD will win this the longer it stretches based on content alone...movie choices will crown BD...98% of averge consumers are not going to subscribe to a cable packeage that has, for example, just NBC, when with the other, slightly more expensive option, they can get CBS, ABC, FOX and CW.

Sooner or later, Universal will have to budge...its strictly a business move...and being their is only one lone gun for HD DVD, I cant see 7 guns folding for BD first...being BD has, from my view on the sidelines, pulled this back to even, and likely never trails again.

Being a 360 owner, I would not mind an HD DVD victory, but I simply dont see that happenign anymore.

STUDIO SUPPORT WILL PUT THIS TO BED IN THE LONG TERM.