I was told by someone in the know that the player will be on the shelf at $299 and frequently on sale for $199

I'm hoping to get a few thousand with my branding.

-Robert
That would be great, Robert! :)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It's starting to look as if the main front of this format war is moving to the Hardware side rather than the Software. We all bought players despite Studio's taking sides or going neutral. There's plenty of Software out there for both. I always liked the Blu-ray specs better than HD-DVD's, but then Bill Gates said plug this into the 360 for $199 and start watching High Def movies NOW!

Terre Haute plant expands Blu-ray line (http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070419/BUSINESS/704190572)


I guess Sony is very not very dependent on third party replicators.
A guess might also be that the third party replicators can't afford the DL upgrade so Sony has to carry it themselves.

I was told by someone in the know that the player will be on the shelf at $299 and frequently on sale for $199

I'm hoping to get a few thousand with my branding.

-Robert
Any details for the specs on this HD DVD player?
So are we to gather that this won't be a Wal-Mart exclusive even early on?
When is the expected launch date?
And what is your branding (assuming it's kosher to post it here)?

Anthony,

what I am saying (might this might be high school science) is that the eye has a retina, the retina has rods and cones. Rods are not important in this discussion since they are not colour sensitive. Cones are divided into three categories red, green and blue (wow what a coincidence they match the primary colours) depending on the wavelengths they react to, these reactions are then sent to the brain and we see colour. if the eye gets yellow wavelength the green and red react and send a signal, if the eye gets red and green wavelength the red and green cones react and send a signal to the brain. In both cases it is the exact same signal that reaches the brain and we see the exact same thing.

You are describing the classic Trichromatic theory of color vision, based on the work of Young and Helmholtz. However, you do need to realize that the Theory is not as simple as you describe, as the simplified theory does not account for patterns of color vision, or after images. The more accepted theory is Hering's Opponent Process theory.

Also, we do not see the same thing - the perception of different objects is different for different people, as perception is not isomorphic with sensory input.

That's because about 1/2 also buy a BD movie? My point is that most of them are gamers, and their movie buying will decay with time.

While a 'gamer' may not purchase as many movies as a hardcore theater buff ... where is this decaying over time thing coming from?

Playing games and waching movies aren't mutually exclusive. There are plenty of people that do both.

where is this decaying over time thing coming from?I'm not saying that this is necessarily what I think, but I believe this is the logic:

Gamers have a certain amount of money they're willing to spend on entertainment. If you buy the argument that there aren't many compelling PS3 games at present, that means gamers have more money to spend on other things, such as movies on Blu-ray. The "novelty" of having a high-definition movie player built into the system is another incentive to buy some BD discs early on...just to see what it's all about. But as that novelty wears off for at least some of them...and as there are more/better games to compete with gamers' dollars, the argument is that those gamers will buy fewer, if any, BD discs.

I was told by someone in the know that the player will be on the shelf at $299 and frequently on sale for $199

I'm hoping to get a few thousand with my branding.
@Robert, I don't really understand this. I mean, Walmart won't be selling "their" players through you, or will they? Will you sell some of those 2 million players Walmart has ordered? Or will you sell some other chinese players outside of those 2 million? Thanks!

I was told by someone in the know that the player will be on the shelf at $299 and frequently on sale for $199

I'm hoping to get a few thousand with my branding.

-Robert

That's great to know, Robert. Thanks!

I hope everything works out for you in regards to getting some of these for your store :D

This causes a problem for BD. Sony's primary goal is format victory (as is Toshiba's). Sony will have to drop the bottom out of player prices as well, and this will upset the other BD CE's. Folks like Pioneer, Panasonic, etc. will face two options. Option 1, go the LG Samsung route to differentiate by providing universal players into the market. Option 2, quickly drive to BD-Live devices to offer a higher end BD solution than the low cost players offer. I believe they will choose option 1, as it is a much easier way to differentiate. Having to educate the retail channel to understand and upsell the value of BD-Live is a loosing game.


Third option: They continue to slowly transition from the PS3 maintaining the low end sales while the standalones occupy the $300-600 nitch, maintaining superior profitibility and high margins while Toshiba and Sony hemmorage money. Sony will eventually recoup their losses as the bleeding edge hardware gets cheaper (and given the falling prices of standalone the BD optics side simply must be cheaper by now and increasing disc volume offsets the rumored early disc subsidy, if any). That's just part of the game console business and Sony knows it well, now. The expansion of Terre Haute would seem to indicate to me that this is happening, as well. PS3 discs thesmelves also contribute to this general volume and offset any cost.

Toshiba OTOH, only has the hope of profibility at the end of the line, which given the apparently imminent competition from the cheaper Chinese seems like exactly the situation you describe for the BDA... except without Option 3, that is. ;)

Their only possible option 3 is their own dual format player, perhaps, as it seems the hopes of all the HDDVD die hards cling to, these days.



Gamers have a certain amount of money they're willing to spend on entertainment. If you buy the argument that there aren't many compelling PS3 games at present, that means gamers have more money to spend on other things, such as movies on Blu-ray. The "novelty" of having a high-definition movie player built into the system is another incentive to buy some BD discs early on...just to see what it's all about. But as that novelty wears off for at least some of them...and as there are more/better games to compete with gamers' dollars, the argument is that those gamers will buy fewer, if any, BD discs.

That argument is completely non-sensical IMO. At the very least, the gamer demographic is going to be interested in certain types of movies: action / sci-fi flicks, contempoary raunchy comedy, etc. More day & date than catalog (Spidey 3, Matrix, LOTR, Star Wars, etc will all eventually come to Blu-ray, regardless of whether they come to HDDVD or not, and the PS3 demographic of 3 million + and growing WILL buy these in greater volume than HDDVD can ever match, and that disparity increases every day). I also believe that Blu-ray will continue to win by increasingly larger margins on movies like the Departed, as well, though smaller than the margins of "gamer demographic" movies like Casino Royale.

@Robert, I don't really understand this. I mean, Walmart won't be selling "their" players through you, or will they? Will you sell some of those 2 million players Walmart has ordered? Or will you sell some other chinese players outside of those 2 million? Thanks!

I would assume he meant getting them from the same people Walmart is getting theirs from. I doubt Fuh Yuan is working exclusively with Walmart.

Umm, a 1.56:1 (or HD is selling at 65% of BD as I prefer to say it) weekly sales ratio is a massive lead?


This is back to the acceleration/velocity argument. 1.56 was merely BD acceleration for that week. HDDVD is 1.56 farther behind. For HDDVD to ever catch up, it will need to go negative (with respect to BD) for at least one week. It was 3 times that (~4.55) at the time of Casino Royale. Each week BD leads it becomes exceedingly unlikely HDDVD will ever take the week again.

Slowing the rate of increase is the first step to catching up, don't get me wrong, but as long as that number favors BD, it's still an increasingly bad thing for HDDVD.


actually if you take the time to look you can find the A2 for 299.99 already at some places

Indeed and I've been heartily considering it at one place in particular. :) The only thing keeping me from getting it are my lingering desires for an XA1 and my belief that it will be another hundred+ cheaper in a couple months. That would almost make me feel as bad as if I had bought an XA1 for $500 a few months ago.

In this case, by "Below $300", I meant under $200, from which I agree with your reply to nataraj that the first digit needs to be lower than 2. ;)

While a 'gamer' may not purchase as many movies as a hardcore theater buff ... where is this decaying over time thing coming from?

Playing games and waching movies aren't mutually exclusive. There are plenty of people that do both.
Gamers buy it for games. They will initially buy some movies but that will decline with time since that's not the main reason they bought it. Only [10]% buy it for movies.

re-edit: I see Adam understands (as I continue to scroll)

P.S. also fewer PS3 sales will go to movie buffs as cheaper players come out, so eve that category gets proportionally smaller

That's just part of the game console business and Sony knows it well, now.

Given the redink on each console and known game attach rates, it is not a profitable venture. Dropping of 20GB SKU proves the point further, even as resounding success of Wii and continued lacklustre sales of PS3 start pushing 3rd party publishers to move away from using PS3 as the primary development environment.

While a 'gamer' may not purchase as many movies as a hardcore theater buff ... where is this decaying over time thing coming from?

Playing games and waching movies aren't mutually exclusive. There are plenty of people that do both.



I would also like to point out it goes both ways. I built my home theater in the basement for movies - 1080P front projector - new reciever, speakers, blah blah blah.

I finally broke down and bought a PS3 a few weeks ago (I may get an HD-DVD player late in the year if there still is a big spread in movies available). Along with a dozen movies I also ordered Fall of Man from Amazon.

To date I've spent about as much time playing that game as watching movies. Last night we had a few dozen people over and after watching a movie plenty of people wanted to kill things on the big screen for awhile.


I haven't had a game system since the Atari 2600, but this thing is a lot of fun. I doubt I will ever buy nearly as many games as movies, but I will be buying a few. So while Sony's attachment rate for both games and movies may be lower with the PS3, they have boradened their market base for both.

This is back to the acceleration/velocity argument. 1.56 was merely BD acceleration for that week. HDDVD is 1.56 farther behind. For HDDVD to ever catch up, it will need to go negative (with respect to BD) for at least one week. It was 3 times that (~4.55) at the time of Casino Royale. Each week BD leads it becomes exceedingly unlikely HDDVD will ever take the week again.

Slowing the rate of increase is the first step to catching up, don't get me wrong, but as long as that number favors BD, it's still an increasingly bad thing for HDDVD.)

What it points out to me is the two things, the volatility of the market and it's infinitesimal size. I doubt that sales ratios mean as much to the invested parties as they do to the silly horse-race game we here have turned them into.

In a market that's doing this poorly, trends are easily shifted and totals can't mean much until more things have been settled. I suspect these trends won't truly be worth watching until after CES 2008, by then most cards will have been played.

Robert-

Any idea when these will be hitting the shelves?

Chris

What it points out to me is the two things, the volatility of the market and it's infinitesimal size. I doubt that sales ratios mean as much to the invested parties as they do to the silly horse-race game we here have turned them into.

In a market that's doing this poorly, trends are easily shifted and totals can't mean much until more things have been settled. I suspect these trends won't truly be worth watching until after CES 2008, by then most cards will have been played.
Exactly. This war has barely started and some people think that the end of the war is imenent. It's not. Both formats are going to be around for a long long time and the constant bickering here is going to continue for a long long time---so the mods had better be ready. Only the die hard Blu-ray fanatics(some paid) are saying that HD DVD must die quickly, and that's because they know like everyone else here that HD DVD will sell millions of stand-alone players once the general public starts buying. The main reason that HD DVD will eventually(over several years) win the war is because I think that HD DVD will always be cheaper--and cheaper is what the general public will go for.

Given the redink on each console and known game attach rates, it is not a profitable venture. Dropping of 20GB SKU proves the point further, even as resounding success of Wii and continued lacklustre sales of PS3 start pushing 3rd party publishers to move away from using PS3 as the primary development environment.

PS3 is following the PS2 pattern to a T. Sony has every reason to want PS2 sales to be high and not to lose that much money per console on PS3. Yet. The transition is happening but right now combined PS2 + PS3 sales still put Sony in the console lead by a very comfortable margin.

Wii does not compare to PS3 or 360 in price, graphics, or performance and is aimed at a different market. It is beating the 7 year old PS2, yes, but not by very much and Nintendo would be willing give your life to trade sales for the most profiable console yet seen (the PlayStation 2, in case you need it spelled out). ;)

What it points out to me is the two things, the volatility of the market and it's infinitesimal size. I doubt that sales ratios mean as much to the invested parties as they do to the silly horse-race game we here have turned them into.


What you're ignoring is that the retailers will not want to keep stocking both formats at the same time. If your sales are 2:1-4:1 in favor of one format or another, you're going to drop the underperforming format regardless of what you do with the superior selling one.

It makes it all the more a pipe dream that HDDVD will EVER be able to retake the lead in any category that matters: lead in disc sales per week, YTD, or SI. In fact, given the graphs we've seen the two formats always rise and fall together, so any massive influx HDDVD will have will likely correlate to an equal, if not greater, rise in BD sales.

This coming winter will be do or die for HDDVD. I have no doubts at all about Blu-ray's survival and really don't think you do, either.

What's going to kick sales into high gear isn't hardware price.

It's going to be the big releases -- Star Wars, LOTR, etc.

What's going to kick sales into high gear isn't hardware price.

It's going to be the big releases -- Star Wars, LOTR, etc.

I think it will take both.

- Tom

IIRC, Day & Date blockbuster releases are much bigger than even the big catalog releases. Star Wars after 10 years of pent up demand is probably one of the few exceptions.

With 3M+ PS3s sold ...That is worldwide. The software numbers we've gotten have been for the US or NA from what I've seen. We shouldn't confuse those. Especially since if 800k PS3s have sold in Europe in the last 4 weeks, they would likely have very little effect on software sales in the US, much like the Japanese PS3s that some like to count even though their effect on software sales in the US is likely very small and we haven't gotten software sales figures from Japan (at least I haven't seen any).

--Darin

What's going to kick sales into high gear isn't hardware price.

It's going to be the big releases -- Star Wars, LOTR, etc.

You mean like Warner releasing The Matrix trilogy a couple of months before a huge wave of cheap HD DVD players hit the streets? ;) Big releases are great. Lower prices are better. Both is a winning combination.

Deals this big don't tend to happen in a vacuum, I would bet Warner had an idea these cheap chinese players were on the way. These are supposed to hit some time in August. With BD-J not ready until October.....put two and two together.

IIRC, Day & Date blockbuster releases are much bigger than even the big catalog releases. Star Wars after 10 years of pent up demand is probably one of the few exceptions.
Most of us saw Star Wars on HBO and Cinemax, so the pent up demand is lessened somewhat. I doubt the average person is going to see that Star Wars is available on either Blu-ray or HD DVD and immediately run out and buy a player. Gradually, the general public will warm to these formats, and Star Wars will probably not even be released until there are a lot more players out there.

What you're ignoring is that the retailers will not want to keep stocking both formats at the same time. If your sales are 2:1-4:1 in favor of one format or another, you're going to drop the underperforming format regardless of what you do with the superior selling one.

This coming winter will be do or die for HDDVD. I have no doubts at all about Blu-ray's survival and really don't think you do, either.

Well, now your bordering on condescension.

In fact I do doubt BDs longterm survival, it has quite a few bumps in the road; allow me,

1) BD has yet to work out specs, which will leave some early adopters holding the bag, and slow stand-alone prices will make the stock of prior players left unsold worthless when changes are implemented. It also means they probably can't get fully-functional sell-through players to market as early as HD DVD.

2) CE manufactures other than Sony, know the bottom is about to drop out of the player market, and it's hard for me to imagine what their incentive is to step up to the plate with another generation of players, especially if they lost money on the first.

3) The gap is narrowing since the release of new HD DVD titles, and with Fox's reluctance to commit to new titles before copy-protection is worked out and Warner's patience run out for BDJ, the studio-advantage leg will be wobbly, probably thought the year.

4) If Walmart decides to favor a format, all bets are off, all previous sales of software will be meaningless. If Walmart goes HD DVD, they will push the software along with it. Sooner or later that means HD DVD will be produced in larger volumes by converted SD DVD lines, resulting in a drop in HD DVD software pricing.

5) The wild card of Hybrids, it's almost impossible to speculate which way that's going to tip the scales.

Wal Mart certainly has leverage with the studios. They could threaten to stop ordering DVDs unless the studios jump. Of course, since they move huge volume, the studios would jump if told so.

But doubtful Wal Mart would actually carry out such a threat because it's big money for them too.

Does Wal Mart even carry Blu-Ray movies?

Wal Mart certainly has leverage with the studios. They could threaten to stop ordering DVDs unless the studios jump. Of course, since they move huge volume, the studios would jump if told so.

But doubtful Wal Mart would actually carry out such a threat because it's big money for them too.

Does Wal Mart even carry Blu-Ray movies?
Wal-Mart carries both Blu-ray and HD DVD movies.


1) BD has yet to work out specs, which will leave some early adopters holding the bag, and slow stand-alone prices will make the stock of prior players left unsold worthless when changes are implemented. It also means they probably can't get fully-functional sell-through players to market as early as HD DVD.
It would be interesting if these Wal-Mart players first appear before the Oct. 31 Blu-ray new spec deadline.

IIRC, Day & Date blockbuster releases are much bigger than even the big catalog releases. Star Wars after 10 years of pent up demand is probably one of the few exceptions.

Yes. I doubt whether even old block busters can match a decent new hit.

PS3 is following the PS2 pattern to a T. Sony has every reason to want PS2 sales to be high and not to lose that much money per console on PS3. Yet. The transition is happening but right now combined PS2 + PS3 sales still put Sony in the console lead by a very comfortable margin.

Are you pulling a Sony talking point on me ? I know the market too well to for that ...

PS3 wasn't discounted $200 to start with. That makes all the difference - since that number says you need 20 games to break even. Attach rates are usually 5 or less.

Wii does not compare to PS3 or 360 in price, graphics, or performance and is aimed at a different market. It is beating the 7 year old PS2, yes, but not by very much and Nintendo would be willing give your life to trade sales for the most profiable console yet seen (the PlayStation 2, in case you need it spelled out). ;)

You have no idea, do you ? Hardcore gamers alone can't make any console profitable. They need the casual gamer and they are all going to Wii. You are seriously under estimating Wii. Already several game studios are shifting development dollars from PS3 to Wii.

Wal Mart certainly has leverage with the studios. They could threaten to stop ordering DVDs unless the studios jump. Of course, since they move huge volume, the studios would jump if told so.

I don't think so - without attracting regulatory concerns.

. I doubt the average person is going to see that Star Wars is available on either Blu-ray or HD DVD and immediately run out and buy a player. Gradually, the general public will warm to these formats, and Star Wars will probably not even be released until there are a lot more players out there.

I would. :D ...I already have an HD DVD player but yeah, if Star Wars suddenly appeared on Blu-ray only....it would take a GREAT deal of resistance to avoid joining in. :)

Anothony.. I see you've been the forum the day after this post, but opted to not respond.

I'm disappointed.

If I did, it was unintentional? no time to search but it could have fallen through the cracks (did not have time to go through al the threads yesterday)

And what you have described is how humans PERCIEVE color.

Now, do you recognize that is NOT how bodies radiate color?

We may be getting somewhere.

actually most stuff do not radiate one colour but is the mixture of different colours. Your printer prints Magenta but there is no Magenta wavelength and light might be white but a prism proves that there are several wavelengths (colours) in it, the green of leaves are all different but chlorophyll has the same green colour, so one leaf having a deeper or more vibrant green has to do with the other colours that are reflected or absorbed. So if you are trying to say the universe has a different wavelength for every colour we we see, you are dead wrong and most just reflect a multitude

I still have no idea where you are going with this? Do you care getting to the point, I am sure it is not a discussion if projectors should work the same way as our eyes or not so that if properly calibrated and the camera is as well we see from the image the exact same colours because we are activating the exact same cones.

That is worldwide. The software numbers we've gotten have been for the US or NA from what I've seen. We shouldn't confuse those. Especially since if 800k PS3s have sold in Europe in the last 4 weeks, they would likely have very little effect on software sales in the US, much like the Japanese PS3s that some like to count even though their effect on software sales in the US is likely very small and we haven't gotten software sales figures from Japan (at least I haven't seen any).

--Darin

Let's strip out the EU PS3 numbers and just use NA and Japan. What are the stand alone BD player numbers? No matter how you slice it, a majority of PS3 buyers are not BD movie buyers.

You're 20% guess and my 10% guess are in the right ball park from what I've seen. I'm not sure if we have enough numbers to know for sure which one of us is closer to the mark though.

I would. :D ...I already have an HD DVD player but yeah, if Star Wars suddenly appeared on Blu-ray only....it would take a GREAT deal of resistance to avoid joining in. :)


I know that I am in the smallest of minorities, but for the life of me I'll never understand what in the hell is so great about Star Wars. I saw it when it came out as a kid (the first time I ever stood in a block-long line), and was so impressed that I never have seen any of it's sequels.

Sorry to blow off coarse, but I would also ad Breakfast Club, Back To The Future, ET, and Ferris Buler's Day Off to my list of I could care less films of my generation.

Sorry to blow off coarse, but I would also ad Breakfast Club, Back To The Future, ET, and Ferris Buler's Day Off to my list of I could care less films of my generation.
Back to the Future is one of my favorite movies. It doesn't take itself too seriously and for me it is a really fun movie to watch. I agree about most of the others. I watched Star Wars on Cinemax, and I wasn't too impressed with the HD transfer, so I'm not that excited about the Blu-ray(or HD DVD) version.

I know that I am in the smallest of minorities, but for the life of me I'll never understand what in the hell is so great about Star Wars. I saw it when it came out as a kid (the first time I ever stood in a block-long line), and was so impressed that I never have seen any of it's sequels.

Sorry to blow off coarse, but I would also ad Breakfast Club, Back To The Future, ET, and Ferris Buler's Day Off to my list of I could care less films of my generation.
Star Wars totally revolutionized the way movies were made. For its time, the movie was an absolute epiphany. It would definitely do well on a hi-def optical disc format.

That said, I've seen it so many times now that I'm in no rush to see it again.

Star Wars totally revolutionized the way movies were made. For its time, the movie was an absolute epiphany. It would definitely do well on a hi-def optical disc format.

That said, I've seen it so many times now that I'm in no rush to see it again.I too have watched it too many times. ZZZZZ :D

I know that I am in the smallest of minorities, but for the life of me I'll never understand what in the hell is so great about Star Wars. I saw it when it came out as a kid (the first time I ever stood in a block-long line), and was so impressed that I never have seen any of it's sequels.

Sorry to blow off coarse, but I would also ad Breakfast Club, Back To The Future, ET, and Ferris Buler's Day Off to my list of I could care less films of my generation.
When the original SW trilogy came out, it was a three-year wait between films.
I can certainly wait a year or so until the films are released on the only format I will own: HD DVD. :)

If I did, it was unintentional? no time to search but it could have fallen through the cracks (did not have time to go through al the threads yesterday)



actually most stuff do not radiate one colour but is the mixture of different colours. Your printer prints Magenta but there is no Magenta wavelength and light might be white but a prism proves that there are several wavelengths (colours) in it, the green of leaves are all different but chlorophyll has the same green colour, so one leaf having a deeper or more vibrant green has to do with the other colours that are reflected or absorbed. So if you are trying to say the universe has a different wavelength for every colour we we see, you are dead wrong and most just reflect a multitude

I still have no idea where you are going with this? Do you care getting to the point, I am sure it is not a discussion if projectors should work the same way as our eyes or not so that if properly calibrated and the camera is as well we see from the image the exact same colours because we are activating the exact same cones.

My point is: When asked for studies indicating that there was always a perceptible difference between lossless and lossy, you responded (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10327480&&#post10327480) to the effect of: "Sure, when they publish a report indicating the sun is still there on a cloudy day. Studies aren't done to point out self evident truths.". The crux of that seems to indicate that given the obvious conclusion that a perceptual model doesn't contain the same info as the physical mechanism, that there would be no data.

Given that you have claimed that lossy is not satisfactory (even if just for you), you have been asked a number of times if you've ever done tests yourself, if you have read any of the data that says the majority of tested listeners can't distinguish between lossless/lossy at sufficient datarates, etc... You have refused to directly address any of these.

So I use color as a challenge to your statement that there would be no data regarding the "self evident" truth that the perceptual model used for display color delivery is obviously different from the physical mechanism in which color is radiated from a body. Would you maintain that there's no relevant studies to indicate the degree to which that perceptual model is effective in replicating the physical mechanism for color reproduction?

(Note, that the discussion of the cones in our eye addresses how we perceive color, just as the shape of our ear involves how we perceive sound.).

Star Wars totally revolutionized the way movies were made. For its time, the movie was an absolute epiphany. It would definitely do well on a hi-def optical disc format.

That said, I've seen it so many times now that I'm in no rush to see it again.

Some would say for the worse, as it and Jaws gave birth to the "blockbuster."

When Star Wars first came out along with it hailed for returning us to the "grand old days of the serial" but on a multi-million dollar level with "state of the art FX" and one of biggest hyped-up merchandising campaigns the world had ever known.

You'll forgive me if my snobby reaction is, yippie :rolleyes: Just what cinema needed, studios blowing the bank on high-profile popcorn movies, move over Nashville, Apocalypse Now, and 2001.

Some would say for the worse, as it and Jaws gave birth to the "blockbuster."

When Star Wars first came out along with it hailed for returning us to the "grand old days of the serial" but on a multi-million dollar level with "state of the art FX" and one of biggest hyped-up merchandising campaigns the world had ever known.

You'll forgive me if my snobby reaction is, yippie :rolleyes: Just what cinema needed, studios blowing the bank on high-profile popcorn movies, move over Nashville, Apocalypse Now, and 2001.
Apocalypse Now and 2001 had large budgets too. Dunno about Nashville.

Truth be told, Star Wars did have and will continue to have more popularity than the movies above, and its release will be an important one on HD.

Whether you like it or not, that's the way it is. There are a lot of movies I like better than both Apocalypse Now and 2001, but I suspect they may not make it to HD at all (at least in any respectable form), whereas I'm pretty sure Apocalypse Now and 2001 will eventually.

Apocalypse Now and 2001 had large budgets too. Dunno about Nashville.

Truth be told, Star Wars did have and will continue to have more popularity than the movies above, and its release will be an important one on HD.

Whether you like it or not, that's the way it is. There are a lot of movies I like better than both Apocalypse Now and 2001, but I suspect they may not make it to HD at all (at least in any respectable form), whereas I'm pretty sure Apocalypse Now and 2001 will eventually.

Oh I know the films I mentioned were big-budget, which is why I choose them. I just think Star Wars is a lot more "check your brain at the door" than the afore mentioned titles. I also know that Star Wars is more popular, it's truly product in the truest sense of the word in that many will buy it just out of habit.

But I'll take the Robert Altman, Kubrick, and Scorsese over Spielberg and Lucas and Cameron any day.

Oh I know the films I mentioned were big-budget, which is why I choose them. I just think Star Wars is a lot more "check your brain at the door" than the afore mentioned titles. I also know that Star Wars is more popular, it's truly product in the truest sense of the word in that many will buy it just out of habit.

But I'll take the Robert Altman, Kubrick, and Scorsese over Spielberg and Lucas and Cameron any day.
That's just your personal preference. That's fine, but the original point made here was that Star Wars would be an important HD release, and that point still stands.

It's irrelevant if you think it's brainy or if you personally like it.

BTW, a little off topic... I think Chronicles of Riddick in many ways is a dumb movie... but I like it a lot nonetheless. :) In fact, I'd rather have that movie on HD (which it is) than Apocalypse Now. My DVD for Apocalypse Now is good enough for me, but I really wanted to see Riddick in full HD glory.

Star Wars totally revolutionized the way movies were made. For its time, the movie was an absolute epiphany. It would definitely do well on a hi-def optical disc format.

That said, I've seen it so many times now that I'm in no rush to see it again.

They are grinding them on Cinemax/HBO everyday now.

I'd expect it'll be sometime before they'll be on an HD disc just due to the fatigue factor.

That soundtrack will sure sound good when it does though.

That's just your personal preference. That's fine, but the original point made here was that Star Wars would be an important HD release, and that point still stands.

It's irrelevant if you think it's brainy or if you personally like it.

I know that ;) I mentioned when I poohed on Star Wars that I was straying from the path. There's also nothing implicit in what I've said that suggests I think Star Wars won't be an HD hit. I'm sure it will.

Eventually it's popularity will arch down, thats' just how things go. Right now however parents who saw it as a kid are showing it to their kids.

What is so important in all this is that Blu-ray has made a deliberate choice not to go to the Chinese. By the time they turn their sluggish strategy around (if ever), it will be too late. They have convinced themselves that people are so in love with content from the big three Blu-ray studios that they are willing to pay any price for the players. They forgot all about the old capitalist notion of competition based on price/performance or bang for the buck. Now they are in a box. If they go with the Chinese, they undercut their own standalone players and take the usual risks of sharing technology with the Chinese. If they stand by their original strategy, they keep pricing themselves out of the HD market. They knew this was coming, so they claimed the war was over, hoping to scare everyone into their camp and shut down the HD DVD competition before the cheap players arrived. It didn't happen. And then they forgot to finish their specs for BD-J. Everyone who knows about this will delay buying any Blu-ray product until after October 31. Anyone who doesn't know about this and buys a Blu-ray player that won't do it all will be very perturbed.

Meanwhile, less expensive HD DVD players -- including Toshiba's own, by the way -- will appear on shelves everywhere. Frankly, the more I look at the situation, the more it looks like Blu-ray has been checkmated. Whatever move they make at this point will be the wrong one. Going to the Chinese will have bad consequences; not going to the Chinese will have bad consequences. Selling few obsolescent standalones without reducing prices will have bad consequences; selling many obsolescent standalones by reducing prices will have bad consequences. Furthermore, the more PS3's Sony sells, the more money they lose right now; the fewer PS3's Sony sells, the more money they lose later on. Sony's partners will bail one by one, because they see the handwriting on the wall: Hardware money can be made in HD DVD through volume sales of budget players. Panasonic makes some very cheap DVD players; they could make some very cheap HD DVD players and sell them by the boatload. Disney will cave: They won't wait forever for fully-featured BD players. HD DVD is ready right now for this. Fox will hug Sony even as the good ship Blu-ray approaches the iceberg.

Sony held a number of high cards in its hand from the very beginning, but had many of these trumped by Toshiba. Toshiba held a less impressive hand, but played it perfectly. They counted on the Chinese as early as 2005 to help them win this. They made a great product and priced it perfectly. They did everything but make the studios put out more movies -- something that was not within their power. They did the next best thing by offering free movies to keep interest going.

I think what will determine this is the fact that HD DVD has a better "finished" product and sells it at an affordable price. There is no excuse for the fatal mistakes Blu-ray has made. Their stubbornness and arrogance made them reject any solution used by HD DVD -- VC-1, HDi, TrueHD, etc. Putting out MPEG-2 movies, when a better method of encodng was available, was ludicrous. Working with Sun to develop a Java solution for so many players with different specs was a complete disaster. Finally, having advanced audio on some Blu-ray disks with no standalone player that can decode them properly and using uncompressed audio that ate up precious disk space were two magnificent Blu-ray failures. But to package all of these failures in consumer-unfriendly high-priced packages was the coup de grace.

It reminds me of yard sales where people refuse to lower their prices out of stubbornness, and the same junk goes back into the garage. Watch for prices of obsolescent Blu-ray players to drop dramatically before October. Only the unwitting will buy them, but these people will become hopping mad when they find out that their players don't do everything they are supposed to do. Wait until Disney gets all those calls, letters, and emails about the features on their disks that worked on DVDs, but don't work on Disney BD disks. I really love it when some folks say that extra features don't matter and all they care about is the movies anyway. Ah yes, the grapes that are out of reach are most certainly sour.

Well, they made their bed, PR and all. I hope they enjoy their long sleep of denial. Or, to use another analogy, like deer in the Sony blue headlight, they are frozen in place and refuse to see what is coming. It has always amazed me how people prefer their cherished belief-systems -- however discredited -- over reality. People really hate to change their minds in the face of new evidence.

star wars is a monster, though it's just not for me anymore. them's the breaks. you get old (er) and things that once meant a lot to you somehow don't anymore. i suspect the impact of star wars will be far less than many people expect. just as i doubt matrix will be anywhere near as large in hd as some predict. when it came out on dvd it was new and fresh, now it's main weapon, the fx, have been used and ridiculed in all manner of venues, and it has lost much of it's "wow" factor. imho of course. pirates, otoh, will probably be a pretty important event, just as the new bond was.

star wars is a monster, though it's just not for me anymore. them's the breaks. you get old (er) and things that once meant a lot to you somehow don't anymore. i suspect the impact of star wars will be far less than many people expect. just as i doubt matrix will be anywhere near as large in hd as some predict. when it came out on dvd it was new and fresh, now it's main weapon, the fx, have been used and ridiculed in all manner of venues, and it has lost much of it's "wow" factor. imho of course. pirates, otoh, will probably be a pretty important event, just as the new bond was.


I think the current generation is lucky to have the LOTR franchise, it just strikes me as much more sophisticated than Star Wars. I also think Jackson is more of an artist than Lucas. I hope Heavenly Creatures sees HD some day, though I always find the last ten minutes excruciatingly tense.

What is so important in all this is that Blu-ray has made a deliberate choice not to go to the Chinese. By the time they turn their sluggish strategy around (if ever), it will be too late. They have convinced themselves that people are so in love with content from the big three Blu-ray studios that they are willing to pay any price for the players. They forgot all about the old capitalist notion of competition based on price/performance or bang for the buck. Now they are in a box. If they go with the Chinese, they undercut their own standalone players and take the usual risks of sharing technology with the Chinese. If they stand by their original strategy, they keep pricing themselves out of the HD market. They knew this was coming, so they claimed the war was over, hoping to scare everyone into their camp and shut down the HD DVD competition before the cheap players arrived. It didn't happen. And then they forgot to finish their specs for BD-J. Everyone who knows about this will delay buying any Blu-ray product until after October 31. Anyone who doesn't know about this and buys a Blu-ray player that won't do it all will be very perturbed.

Meanwhile, less expensive HD DVD players -- including Toshiba's own, by the way -- will appear on shelves everywhere. Frankly, the more I look at the situation, the more it looks like Blu-ray has been checkmated. Whatever move they make at this point will be the wrong one. Going to the Chinese will have bad consequences; not going to the Chinese will have bad consequences. Selling few obsolescent standalones without reducing prices will have bad consequences; selling many obsolescent standalones by reducing prices will have bad consequences. Furthermore, the more PS3's Sony sells, the more money they lose right now; the fewer PS3's Sony sells, the more money they lose later on. Sony's partners will bail one by one, because they see the handwriting on the wall: Hardware money can be made in HD DVD through volume sales of budget players. Panasonic makes some very cheap DVD players; they could make some very cheap HD DVD players and sell them by the boatload. Disney will cave: They won't wait forever for fully-featured BD players. HD DVD is ready right now for this. Fox will hug Sony even as the good ship Blu-ray approaches the iceberg.

Sony held a number of high cards in its hand from the very beginning, but had many of these trumped by Toshiba. Toshiba held a less impressive hand, but played it perfectly. They counted on the Chinese as early as 2005 to help them win this. They made a great product and priced it perfectly. They did everything but make the studios put out more movies -- something that was not within their power. They did the next best thing by offering free movies to keep interest going.

I think what will determine this is the fact that HD DVD has a better "finished" product and sells it at an affordable price. There is no excuse for the fatal mistakes Blu-ray has made. Their stubbornness and arrogance made them reject any solution used by HD DVD -- VC-1, HDi, TrueHD, etc. Putting out MPEG-2 movies, when a better method of encodng was available, was ludicrous. Working with Sun to develop a Java solution for so many players with different specs was a complete disaster. Finally, having advanced audio on some Blu-ray disks with no standalone player that can decode them properly and using uncompressed audio that ate up precious disk space were two magnificent Blu-ray failures. But to package all of these failures in consumer-unfriendly high-priced packages was the coup de grace.

It reminds me of yard sales where people refuse to lower their prices out of stubbornness, and the same junk goes back into the garage. Watch for prices of obsolescent Blu-ray players to drop dramatically before October. Only the unwitting will buy them, but these people will become hopping mad when they find out that their players don't do everything they are supposed to do. Wait until Disney gets all those calls, letters, and emails about the features on their disks that worked on DVDs, but don't work on Disney BD disks. I really love it when some folks say that extra features don't matter and all they care about is the movies anyway. Ah yes, the grapes that are out of reach are most certainly sour.

Well, they made their bed, PR and all. I hope they enjoy their long sleep of denial. Or, to use another analogy, like deer in the Sony blue headlight, they are frozen in place and refuse to see what is coming. It has always amazed me how people prefer their cherished belief-systems -- however discredited -- over reality. People really hate to change their minds in the face of new evidence.
If Sony and friends were to go with the Chinese, they could crank something out quickly. ie. There would be a delay of course. 6 months?

The question is whether or not they're willing to undercut themselves in terms of hardware sales.

In the meantime, I suspect they're developing their own reference design (if they haven't already done so), but won't unleash it unless they really, really have to. Remember, the Wal-Mart machine won't be out for half a year yet.

It is clear that HD DVD has based its strategy on as quickly as possible dropping prices to mass consumer price points and to include Chinese manufactures into the mix as soon as possible.

Blu-ray's strategy has been to exclude that low manufacturing base for as long as possible so traditional CE manufactures can drag out the early adopter and early majority pricing and recoup back some development costs. The PS3 arriving as a capable Blu-ray player at the $599 price point has complicated life for the Blu-ray CE manufacturers.

As of now, the HD A2 (and related chassis twins the HD XA2 HD A20, HD E1 etc) and the PS3 are the only HD players in mass production with their associated volume cost savings.

When the Chinese players arrive and have to be sold below the Toshiba branded players prices, than either Blu-ray players need to be sold at competitive pricing or they will lose market share.

These HD DVD players will be probably marketed and will replace high end upconverting DVD players in the market, they'll be like upconverting DVD players that also play the next generation HD DVDs.

It seems that Blu-ray CE companies only real defensive play is to real dual format players, that can at least justify a price premium. If Samsung and LG prove that it really doesn't cost much more to create a dual format player over a Blu-ray only box, then it seems that would be the logical path they will take.

In that case, HD DVD will be dominate, but Blu-ray will survive with the backing of the PS3 install base and Blu-ray/HD DVD/DVD /CD dual HD players.

If Sony and friends were to go with the Chinese, they could crank something out quickly. ie. There would be a delay of course. 6 months?

The question is whether or not they're willing to undercut themselves in terms of hardware sales.

In the meantime, I suspect they're developing their own reference design (if they haven't already done so), but won't unleash it unless they really, really have to. Remember, the Wal-Mart machine won't be out for half a year yet.

How will they produce a reference design if they can't even reach a consensus on hardware specs? Who will produce the reference design? Sony? Panasonic? Pioneer?

Have they already committed themselves to going it alone and not sharing technology with the Chinese? Has there been any indication that they are even talking to the Chinese about producing cheap players?

If they can't get BD-J advanced features uniform before October 31, how will they work together to build a Chinese Blu-ray architecture?

IMHO, a year would be even too optimistic. Blu-ray never prepared for price competition and cheap Chinese players.

Actually, I would like Blu-ray to hang in there; but they cannot compete without price advantage; and I don't see that as an arrow in their quiver.

It is clear that HD DVD has based its strategy on as quickly as possible dropping prices to mass consumer price points and to include Chinese manufactures into the mix as soon as possible.

Blu-ray's strategy has been to exclude that low manufacturing base for as long as possible so traditional CE manufactures can drag out the early adopter and early majority pricing and recoup back some development costs. The PS3 arriving as a capable Blu-ray player at the $599 price point has complicated life for the Blu-ray CE manufacturers.

As of now, the HD A2 (and related chassis twins the HD XA2 HD A20, HD E1 etc) and the PS3 are the only HD players in mass production with their associated volume cost savings.

When the Chinese players arrive and have to be sold below the Toshiba branded players prices, than either Blu-ray players need to be sold at competitive pricing or they will lose market share.

These HD DVD players will be probably marketed and will replace high end upconverting DVD players in the market, they'll be like upconverting DVD players that also play the next generation HD DVDs.

It seems that Blu-ray CE companies only real defensive play is to real dual format players, that can at least justify a price premium. If Samsung and LG prove that it really doesn't cost much more to create a dual format player over a Blu-ray only box, then it seems that would be the logical path they will take.

In that case, HD DVD will be dominate, but Blu-ray will survive with the backing of the PS3 install base and Blu-ray/HD DVD/DVD /CD dual HD players.

Good post.

Both formats will survive -- for different reasons. But HD DVD will become the HD format of "Everyman." By the way, I like that better than J6P.

Good post.

Both formats will survive -- for different reasons. But HD DVD will become the HD format of "Everyman." By the way, I like that better than J6P.

Someone in these parts uses JQP "John Q Public." which I always found refreshingly less derogatory, I lean toward "mass consumption"

How will they produce a reference design if they can't even reach a consensus on hardware specs? Who will produce the reference design? Sony? Panasonic? Pioneer?

Have they already committed themselves to going it alone and not sharing technology with the Chinese? Has there been any indication that they are even talking to the Chinese about producing cheap players?

If they can't get BD-J advanced features uniform before October 31, how will they work together to build a Chinese Blu-ray architecture?

IMHO, a year would be even too optimistic. Blu-ray never prepared for price competition and cheap Chinese players.

Actually, I would like Blu-ray to hang in there; but they cannot compete without price advantage; and I don't see that as an arrow in their quiver.
Specs have been solidified already. BD-J is almost mature (enough) too.

The development of a reference design could occur in parallel.

Yes, there would be a delay, but the delay could be minimized.

Not like any of this is new on the subject of HD DVD and Chinese players;

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/10/20/business/dvd.php

In switch, Toshiba turns to China
By Martin Fackler and Ken Belson The New York Times

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2005


TOKYO In the high-stakes battle with Sony over whose format will power the next-generation of DVD players, Toshiba has adopted a potentially perilous strategy: encouraging low-cost Chinese competitors to crank out machines using its standard known as HD-DVD.

The tactic of courting Chinese makers has been largely taboo in Japan, where manufacturers like Sony and Panasonic have long tried to delay their technology from turning into cheap commodities. But Toshiba's decision could have significant ramifications in the race for the billions of dollars that will very likely flow from the next generation of DVD technology that promises sharper pictures, enhanced audio and more disc storage....

By making its technology available to Chinese manufacturers, Toshiba hopes to get cheaper HD-DVD players in the stores months ahead of Sony, Panasonic, Samsung and other Blu-ray companies.

This would help Toshiba outmaneuver Sony. Toshiba, analysts say, also knows that DVDs became a mass market item in the United States after low-priced models arrived from China and filled big-box retailers like Wal-Mart


http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=107655

How will they produce a reference design if they can't even reach a consensus on hardware specs? Who will produce the reference design? Sony? Panasonic? Pioneer?

Have they already committed themselves to going it alone and not sharing technology with the Chinese? Has there been any indication that they are even talking to the Chinese about producing cheap players?

If they can't get BD-J advanced features uniform before October 31, how will they work together to build a Chinese Blu-ray architecture?

IMHO, a year would be even too optimistic. Blu-ray never prepared for price competition and cheap Chinese players.

Actually, I would like Blu-ray to hang in there; but they cannot compete without price advantage; and I don't see that as an arrow in their quiver.


I don't see BD going anywhere, but I agree that it would be nearly impossible for them to introduce a model equivalent to the upcoming Chinese HD DVD units before fall 08.

How will they produce a reference design if they can't even reach a consensus on hardware specs? Who will produce the reference design? In another thread, I indicated that the decoder chip suppliers are usually the ones that provide reference designs. For example, looking at our web site, you'll see reference designs for Blu-ray player, HDTV, IPTV set-top box, portable media player. etc.

when's your HD DVD reference design going to be available Keith?

In another thread, I indicated that the decoder chip suppliers are usually the ones that provide reference designs. For example, looking at our web site, you'll see reference designs for Blu-ray player, HDTV, IPTV set-top box, portable media player. etc.

That works for the "Broadcom" part of the solution, but who from Blu-ray will provide the equivalent of the "Microsoft CE" operating system part of the solution?

The Japanese companies which spend the R&D to develop DVD had their lunch eaten by cheap Chinese DVD players. Except probably Toshiba, which got all those patent revenues.

So Toshiba might as well get out of the HW business and see if they could just be an IP company. Because if this gambit works, they'll be an outcast in the CE industry.

But they better be careful. Chinese companies are known to make DVD players without paying for the license.

Disney will cave: They won't wait forever for fully-featured BD players. HD DVD is ready right now for this. Fox will hug Sony even as the good ship Blu-ray approaches the iceberg.LOL, no offense but you have no idea how important studio support is for a video format. The "Blu-ray ship" will never crash as long as there are major studios exclusive to it. In fact considering that more major studios are exclusive to Blu-ray I think it is HD DVD that has to do more simply to prove that it will stick around.


Actually, I would like Blu-ray to hang in there; but they cannot compete without price advantage; and I don't see that as an arrow in their quiver.Do you know how cheaply EVD can be sold for if price was the only consideration for a video format? You seem to believe that price alone is enough for a video format to win but I have seen many cheap video format go nowhere because they couldn't get major Hollywood support. Personally I believe there is little to no chance of Blu-ray failing in this format war. Either consumers will get stuck paying extra for universal players for the next 20+ years or Blu-ray will win. In my opinion those are the two most likely results of this format war.


That works for the "Broadcom" part of the solution, but who from Blu-ray will provide the equivalent of the "Microsoft CE" operating system part of the solution?Well considering that HDi was made by Microsoft it would seem logical that BD-J would be supported by Sun Microsystems. I think that would explain why they are on the BDA Board of Directors. Also don't confuse the issue of Blu-ray PiP and BD-J. Blu-ray PiP decoding requirements are high, much higher than HD DVD, and new more powerful decoding chips had to be made for it. Many posters mock the BDA for that without understanding that they are taking the harder but better path when it comes to PiP. HD DVD simply took the easier path with PiP and will be more limited because of that.

The Japanese companies which spend the R&D to develop DVD had their lunch eaten by cheap Chinese DVD players. Except probably Toshiba, which got all those patent revenues.

So Toshiba might as well get out of the HW business and see if they could just be an IP company. Because if this gambit works, they'll be an outcast in the CE industry.

But they better be careful. Chinese companies are known to make DVD players without paying for the license.

You're right. That is the risk of dealing with the Chinese companies. Toshiba is presently litigating over fees.

That is probably why Sony doesn't want to go that way. But, in the end, they may have no other option.

Do you know how cheaply EVD can be sold for if price was the only consideration for a video format? You seem to believe that price alone is enough for a video format to win but I have seen many cheap video format go nowhere because they couldn't get major Hollywood support. Personally I believe there is little to no chance of Blu-ray failing in this format war. Either consumers will get stuck paying extra for universal players for the next 20+ years or Blu-ray will win. In my opinion those are the two most likely results of this format war.
I disagree. I see two possibilities if there is a format war stalemate, if combo players become the norm.

1) The stalemate continues forever.
2) The cheaper format (HD DVD) gradually takes over.

LOL, no offense but you have no idea how important studio support is for a video format. The "Blu-ray ship" will never crash as long as there are major studios exclusive to it. In fact considering that more major studios are exclusive to Blu-ray I think it is HD DVD that has to do more simply to prove that it will stick around.

Old argument that doesn't improve with age. Right now, titles are about equal in number, and Fox hasn't figured out how to fulfill its CES promises. Number of studios doesn't matter, if they aren't releasing great numbers of movies. There could be a thousand Blu-ray studios, but if they are sitting on their hands waiting for BD-J or BD+, what good is it? And Disney doesn't like all these BD-J delays. Warner is not pleased either. Studios won't keep producing for a format that lets them down or takes overtime to implement.

Do you know how cheaply EVD can be sold for if price was the only consideration for a video format? You seem to believe that price alone is enough for a video format to win but I have seen many cheap video format go nowhere because they couldn't get major Hollywood support. Personally I believe there is little to no chance of Blu-ray failing in this format war. Either consumers will get stuck paying extra for universal players for the next 20+ years or Blu-ray will win. In my opinion those are the two most likely results of this format war.

Nope, "cheap" by itself won't win, but performance at a good price will. Blu-ray needs to make affordable players. Otherwise, it will become an exclusive club with very few members.

Well considering that HDi was made by Microsoft it would seem logical that BD-J would be supported by Sun Microsystems. I think that would explain why they are on the BDA Board of Directors. Also don't confuse the issue of Blu-ray PiP and BD-J. Blu-ray PiP decoding requirements are high, much higher than HD DVD, and new more powerful decoding chips had to be made for it. Many posters mock the BDA for that without understanding that they are taking the harder but better path when it comes to PiP. HD DVD simply took the easier path with PiP and will be more limited because of that.

I'm not talking about HDi. I'm talking about operating system. Who will write the software for the Chinese BD players? Will they come up with it by themselves? Will Sony hand it to them?

Blu-ray PiP requirements are so high that they don't even exist. Maybe the theme song of Blu-ray should be Disney's "When you wish upon a star."

By the way, what is Sun's role in all of these delays? It seems that they and the hardware manufacturers are not on the same page.

But are you maintaining that Chinese BD machines would be powered by Solaris open source operating system? That is Sun's child.

Actually, I want Blu-ray to survive forever, since its survival makes HD DVD look so very good.

But to each his own.

I disagree. I see two possibilities if there is a format war stalemate, if combo players become the norm.

1) The stalemate continues forever.
2) The cheaper format (HD DVD) gradually takes over.

For how long can HD-DVD HW be cheaper? At one point, both blu-ray and HD-DVD players will cost the same.

For how long can HD-DVD HW be cheaper? At one point, both blu-ray and HD-DVD players will cost the same.

Why would that have to be the case? Blu-ray may never become "cheap," anymore than LD became cheap. And we know what happened to LD. It was a niche format for rich people, and everybody else used VHS.

Besides, if Blu-ray is going to become competitively inexpensive, don't you think it ought to start heading in that direction right now, rather than waiting until next year or the year after that?

If there is nothing stopping Sony from competing price/performance with Toshiba, then why aren't they putting out their equivalent to the HD-A2, which goes for $299 on some sites?

In my mind, I could always outrun olympic stars. Sony can theoretically beat Toshiba's prices.

If wishes were horses...

For how long can HD-DVD HW be cheaper? At one point, both blu-ray and HD-DVD players will cost the same.
Actually, I was talking about both hardware and media. Given that HD DVD can be pressed on DVD lines, HD DVD replication will remain cheaper for a very, very long time.

Actually, I was talking about both hardware and media. Given that HD DVD can be pressed on DVD lines, HD DVD replication will remain cheaper for a very, very long time.

And that saving gets multiplied many times over for shorter runs (independents and small studios), since the original master is much more expensive for Blu-ray than it is for HD DVD. Frankly, Blu-ray just isn't worth the expense for small studios.

Why would that have to be the case? Blu-ray may never become "cheap," anymore than LD became cheap. And we know what happened to LD. It was a niche format for rich people, and everybody else used VHS.

Besides, if Blu-ray is going to become competitively inexpensive, don't you think it ought to start heading in that direction right now, rather than waiting until next year or the year after that?

If there is nothing stopping Sony from competing price/performace with Toshiba, then why aren't they putting out their equivalent to the HD-A2, which goes for $299 on some sites?

In my mind, I could always outrun olympic stars. Sony can theoretically beat Toshiba's prices.

If wishes were horses...

I disagree with you there. I think technology gets cheaper in due time. Blu-ray is just too new (compared to HD-DVD) to get there as quickly as the HD-DVD format.

That may very well be HD-DVD's advantage, but I don't really care as an early adopter. To me a significantly larger storage capacity far outweights the initial higher price of the media. BTW, I'm thinking beyond movies here.

I disagree with you there. I think technology gets cheaper in due time. Blu-ray is just too new (compared to HD-DVD) to get there as quickly as the HD-DVD format.

That may very well be HD-DVD's advantage, but I don't really care as an early adopter. To me a significantly larger storage capacity far outweights the initial higher price of the media. BTW, I'm thinking beyond movies here.

When technology gets cheaper, it happens for a reason. Technology doesn't get cheaper by itself through some miracle. It gets cheaper because parts and assembly become cheaper, usually because cheaper labor forces are used. Chinese labor is cheaper than Japanese or American labor.

But not all technologies get cheaper. Automobile technology has gotten only more expensive. It is in electronics that cost savings are most apparent, and the Far East connection has made that possible.

If Sony is a closed company and doesn't want to risk alliance with Chinese manufacturers, then their Blu-ray products will remain expensive for a very long time.

If Howard Stringer goes to China, then Blu-ray has a chance. But he doesn't even like Tokyo as much as he likes London. Or so I've heard. ;)

Cheaper replication is meaningless unless it translates to much lower price.

All it means is there's higher margins for the people who sell the discs.

What do I care if they're keeping more money because of lower costs? Give me lower prices on the discs.

On and Engadget has a report today, according to Home Media Research, Blu-Ray had 70% share in the first quarter, 832,530 to 359,300. Blu-Ray also reached a million discs sold.

Releases which came out on both formats, such as The Departed, sold better on Blu-Ray.

Where has the common wisdom of BD media being more expensive expressed itself at a consumer level? The only place that HDDVD has shown an advantage is in hardware sales. Disc pricing has been identical (Fox's crazy pricing offset by Universal Combo pricing).

I'd be perfectly happy with settling for Big Studio = Blu-ray and Universal & the Small Studios staying HDDVD...

That works for the "Broadcom" part of the solution, but who from Blu-ray will provide the equivalent of the "Microsoft CE" operating system part of the solution?I guess you didn't read the brochure. :)

The PS3 and Blu-Ray players aren't being built in Chinese plants?

Are you pulling a Sony talking point on me ?

If I was, it would only be by coincidence. It's undisputable fact that combined PS3+PS2 sales give Sony the easy top spot in console sales. It's also pretty fundamental logic to keep milking the PS2 goose that long ago recouped it's R&D. It also makes perfect sense to wait out a big PS3 while blu-violet optics, if not the Cell, continue to drop in price.

Cell R&D is shared amongst the 3 main contributing companies and will be recouped in other projects, so isn't entirely a PS3 deal.

IOW, Sony only gains by milking the PS2 goose and only loses by pushing the PS3 while the PS2 goose is still laying eggs. In the meantime, they're still winning the early rounds of the format war, however irrelevent they'll be to the launch of cheaper standalones.



I know the market too well to for that ...


Not from my perspective. :p


Hardcore gamers alone can't make any console profitable. They need the casual gamer and they are all going to Wii. You are seriously under estimating Wii.

Your point is oblique to any point I've made. My point has always been that Sony is not yet courting the casual gamer, as they have the PS2 for that, resulting in pure profit these days. They will eventually want to transition to that, but not yet. Most likely not until spring 08 at the earliest.


Already several game studios are shifting development dollars from PS3 to Wii.

That's the rumor. We'll see if this manifests in any increase in titles. ;)

Cheaper replication is meaningless unless it translates to much lower price.

All it means is there's higher margins for the people who sell the discs.

What do I care if they're keeping more money because of lower costs? Give me lower prices on the discs.

On and Engadget has a report today, according to Home Media Research, Blu-Ray had 70% share in the first quarter, 832,530 to 359,300. Blu-Ray also reached a million discs sold.

Releases which came out on both formats, such as The Departed, sold better on Blu-Ray.

Actually, there is every reason to demand that HD DVD studios lower their prices to reflect cheaper replication costs. I think they are charging what they believe the market will bear, albeit a very tiny market for both formats. HD DVD studios should show some of the same pluck demonstrated by Toshiba, which discounted its prices.

But the numbers game just makes me dizzy. Am I supposed to prefer Blu-ray because of a temporary statistical advantage in a minuscule market compared to DVDs? When my daughter sold lemonade, she outsold my neighbor's child by two to one. Maybe the loser's lemonade should have been banned thereafter, even though it may have tasted better.

All of these swings are temporary. Every purchase changes the numbers a little bit. In a market system, diverse products can coexist. Those who prefer a format, should buy that format. Those who prefer both, should buy both. One will always sell more than the other, but this isn't like the Roman Circus where one of the gladiators has to die.

Most of us saw Star Wars on HBO and Cinemax, so the pent up demand is lessened somewhat. I doubt the average person is going to see that Star Wars is available on either Blu-ray or HD DVD and immediately run out and buy a player.

I'm not so sure I agree, but I was talking about the DVD release.

The PS3 and Blu-Ray players aren't being built in Chinese plants?

I'm quite sure they are. Check the back of yours (if you have one) to be sure. But a Sony plant in China is different from a Chinese plant that might be encouraged to produce its own player or game machine. It's more a matter of control than it is a matter of where it is made. It's the control issue that separates closed from open Japanese companies.

Yeah well the Japanese companies which worked with the Chinese companies on DVD got their lunches eaten. So they're wary and it was one of the reasons they pushed for new formats in the first place.

Like I said, HD-DVD only works for Toshiba since only they own the patents while the Blu-Ray patents are more broadly shared. Toshiba is apparently willing to sacrifice its hardware operations in hopes of reaping patent revenues later. Presumably, those patent licenses are fixed, not based on a percentage of prices paid for the hardware? That is, a player which is priced at $300 doesn't yield higher patent license fees than a player which is priced at $150?

Cheaper replication is meaningless unless it translates to much lower price.

All it means is there's higher margins for the people who sell the discs.

What do I care if they're keeping more money because of lower costs? Give me lower prices on the discs.

On and Engadget has a report today, according to Home Media Research, Blu-Ray had 70% share in the first quarter, 832,530 to 359,300. Blu-Ray also reached a million discs sold.

Releases which came out on both formats, such as The Departed, sold better on Blu-Ray.

Well, there obviously has to be some win, win for a format to fly. Studio's will more energetically release a product with a higher profit margin, and they will also lower prices in tandem with increased revenue from a spreading consumer base.

One thing people forget when they toss around LD analogies, that a huge number of titles were released by third parties, Image, Pioneer, Criterion. That's not going to happen on HD DVD and BD, because the studios have become much more guarded of their library's as resolution increases, and with DVD they all figured out it was too profitable to put in the hands of others.

I don't think so - without attracting regulatory concerns.
your wrong i worked for walmart for 4yrs ! they will strong arm studios or whatever to get there way.lot of snobs on this forum think walmart is a poor man store,yes to jqp,but as a business they are powerful as anyone out there!

Margins may appeal to the studios but so do sales. Studios are selling a mass-market product, not some boutique item where they want to maximize margins.

If Blu-Ray maintains or increases it's 70 to 30 margin on sales, all the talk about cheap replication costs and cheap Chinese branded players will fall on deaf ears.

Margins may appeal to the studios but so do sales. Studios are selling a mass-market product, not some boutique item where they want to maximize margins.

If Blu-Ray maintains or increases it's 70 to 30 margin on sales, all the talk about cheap replication costs and cheap Chinese branded players will fall on deaf ears.


Sorry, I gotta take issue here, BD could be selling 98 to 2 and it would still be a failure by your own definition of what studio's want out of this.

Margins may appeal to the studios but so do sales. Studios are selling a mass-market product, not some boutique item where they want to maximize margins.

If Blu-Ray maintains or increases it's 70 to 30 margin on sales, all the talk about cheap replication costs and cheap Chinese branded players will fall on deaf ears.

I would say that's a pretty big "if"! Here's another "if" - if Wal-Mart sells 2 million HD DVD players in the next year the "if" you refer to will evaporate. Like it or not Wal-Mart has clout. Before the PS3 was launched some HD DVD zealots doubted it would have that much effect. Now BD zealots doubt the Wal-Mart HD DVD support will have much effect. The one thing I don't doubt is that both were/are wrong.

Cheers,

Grant

Oh I know the films I mentioned were big-budget, which is why I choose them. I just think Star Wars is a lot more "check your brain at the door" than the afore mentioned titles. I also know that Star Wars is more popular, it's truly product in the truest sense of the word in that many will buy it just out of habit.

But I'll take the Robert Altman, Kubrick, and Scorsese over Spielberg and Lucas and Cameron any day.


As long as it's not Eyes Wide Shut, not only did that star that freak Scientologist, it was almost as bad as Battlefield Earth.

Margins may appeal to the studios but so do sales. Studios are selling a mass-market product, not some boutique item where they want to maximize margins.

If Blu-Ray maintains or increases it's 70 to 30 margin on sales, all the talk about cheap replication costs and cheap Chinese branded players will fall on deaf ears.


That's a totally false statement. Not everyone can afford HD-DVD, or BR at the moment, some just aren't willing to dish out that kind of money for it. A $199, $149, or $99 HD-DVD player opens the market to the masses. Most of the United States is blue collar, middle class families, which won't mind dropping that kind of money for a bargain at Wal-Mart. The masses are what makes, or breaks a product. I guarantee this "war" will be over by the end of 2008 and HD-DVD will be on top.

The masses are going to buy Shinco players for an inferior library?

Hey if price were the main consideration, iPod would have been a has been by now, instead losing big share to the iRiver, Creative and smaller brand names which are heavily discounted.

I don't know, if price is the only consideration, then Olevia and Vizio HDTVs rule the market right?

I guess the cheap HD-DVD players with brands nobody heard of would be appropriate to go with those cruddy HDTVs.

Sorry, I gotta take issue here, BD could be selling 98 to 2 and it would still be a failure by your own definition of what studio's want out of this.

Exactly ... I keep hearing all these rants about how BD is outselling 3:2 or 70% to 30% ... but we're talking about such a small number of discs it's ridiculous. If we were talking even 10% of what DVD does in a month then we'd be getting somewhere, but we're not even close.

Blu-Ray just had a big 'birthday' in that they reached 1 million discs sold ... but on the backs of over 2 million PS3's ... so that means only half bought a disc. One disc.

Let's say that Blu-Ray continues to lead and outpace HD-DVD through the end of the year. Let's assume that they outpace them by 50,000 discs per month. 8 months left, that's an additional lead of 400,000 discs.

If this Wal-Mart deal pans out and they sell half their players, and each person buys 2 discs with it ... that's 2 million HD-DVD's sold.

Do studios care about these 2:1, 3:2, 3:1 sales ratios? I'm sure they do. Do they realize that it took an inordinate amount of hardware to get there? I'm sure they do. I would think the attach rates would be significantly more important to them than these 3:2 / 70%/30% ratios.

It's like if I gave you a penny and kept a dime. I could say I'm 1000% more wealthy than you are and I'm sure that would turn heads ... "Wow! 1000%! That's amazing". Fact is, neither of us can even pull a gumball out of a gumball machine. *shrug*

The masses are going to buy Shinco players for an inferior library?


How many 'Apex' DVD Players have sold? And 'inferior' library is your opinion. There are many that actually have more prefered titles on the HD-DVD side than Blu-Ray. I think the delta is like 30 discs at this time. If +30 is "superior", than what are these formats compared to DVD's 100,000 titles?


Hey if price were the main consideration, iPod would have been a has been by now, instead losing big share to the iRiver, Creative and smaller brand names which are heavily discounted.


An exception does not the rule make. Not only that, but the iRiver's and Creative's of the world sell quite a few units. Usually to the people that are on the fence and figure it's worth a few dollars to see what this MP3 craze is all about.


I don't know, if price is the only consideration, then Olevia and Vizio HDTVs rule the market right?


Who makes the panels for those HDTV's? Do you know what % of the market they have?


I guess the cheap HD-DVD players with brands nobody heard of would be appropriate to go with those cruddy HDTVs.

I prefer 'inexpensive' to cheap. Again, how many 'Apex' DVD players are out there today? Something else to consider ... if these players are out at $149 this Holiday Season ... how many Blu-Ray-Only households would pick one up just to get content that they want that's exclusive to HD-DVD? It becomes an impulse buy at that point.

The flip side, how many HD-DVD-Only households would pick up a $500 Blu-Ray player to get content that's exclusive to Blu-Ray?

http://news.digitaltrends.com/article12447.html

Vizio, known for producing relatively inexpensive HD flat panel TVs for sale in places like Costco Wholesale and Sam's Club, announced last week their brand had entered the top five LCD TV brands based upon fourth quarter shipments. This is apparently according to data from DisplaySearch, a flat panel display market research and consulting firm.

Vizio said they had seen 618% year over year growth, compared to an industry growth of 136% during the same period. DisplaySearch data, besides ranking them in the top five brands, also placed them number five in units for 32"+ flat panel TVs. The flat panel manufacturer projects they will have 10% market share in flat panels in 2007.

Someone certainly seems to be buying these "cruddy" TVs.

http://news.digitaltrends.com/article12447.html



Someone certainly seems to be buying these "cruddy" TVs.

tyvm for the post, I was trying to find some numbers just like these ;)

Hey if price were the main consideration, iPod would have been a has been by now, instead losing big share to the iRiver, Creative and smaller brand names which are heavily discounted.

iPod has become a branding icon and fashion accessory. In addition, their online service has a very broad selection, and it's specifically geared to their product line.

LOL, no offense but you have no idea how important studio support is for a video format. The "Blu-ray ship" will never crash as long as there are major studios exclusive to it. In fact considering that more major studios are exclusive to Blu-ray I think it is HD DVD that has to do more simply to prove that it will stick around.

LOL, no offense but you have no idea how quickly studio support will follow any format that puts a sufficient number of players in the market.

The masses are going to buy Shinco players for an inferior library?

Hey if price were the main consideration, iPod would have been a has been by now, instead losing big share to the iRiver, Creative and smaller brand names which are heavily discounted.

I don't know, if price is the only consideration, then Olevia and Vizio HDTVs rule the market right?

I guess the cheap HD-DVD players with brands nobody heard of would be appropriate to go with those cruddy HDTVs.


Such passion!

Obviously what constitutes an inferior library is fairly subjective, if it's numbers of titles your talking about, BD isn't going to make leaps past HD DVD until they get copy-protection and advanced features ironed out.

If it turns out Walmart is going to favor HD DVD, they will favor the software too, by that time there will be plenty to fill whatever space they give over to them.

Oddly enough I think one of he things that may appeal to Walmart, that really hasn't made a difference to the early adopter is the name "HD-DVD." If somebody is buying a HDTV, HD-DVD sounds like a pretty logical mate, "Blu-ray" not so much.

I've told this one before, but my favorite HD story is still the one I heard where a guy's mother-in-law overheard he and his wife talking about BD a chimed in with, "Blu-ray, isn't that one of those things that killed the Crocodile Hunter?"

your wrong i worked for walmart for 4yrs ! they will strong arm studios or whatever to get there way.lot of snobs on this forum think walmart is a poor man store,yes to jqp,but as a business they are powerful as anyone out there!

There is always a fine line - after which they will get into to trouble. It is difficult to say when ....

There is always a fine line - after which they will get into to trouble. It is difficult to say when ....


Well, as I said in another forum they generally start getting more pushy once they know a supplier is dependent on them.

I believe they were the one that demanded smaller footprints on DVD boxed sets, and got it.

The masses are going to buy Shinco players for an inferior library?

Hey if price were the main consideration, iPod would have been a has been by now, instead losing big share to the iRiver, Creative and smaller brand names which are heavily discounted.

I don't know, if price is the only consideration, then Olevia and Vizio HDTVs rule the market right?

I guess the cheap HD-DVD players with brands nobody heard of would be appropriate to go with those cruddy HDTVs.
i got news for you olevia has gotten good reviews,i remember when we never heard of toshbia,the no names of today are the known names of tomorrow!

I'm just guessing, but Walmart might favor the format that's forward looking and download friendly. Think compression and BD+.

When technology gets cheaper, it happens for a reason. Technology doesn't get cheaper by itself through some miracle. It gets cheaper because parts and assembly become cheaper, usually because cheaper labor forces are used. Chinese labor is cheaper than Japanese or American labor.

But not all technologies get cheaper. Automobile technology has gotten only more expensive. It is in electronics that cost savings are most apparent, and the Far East connection has made that possible.

If Sony is a closed company and doesn't want to risk alliance with Chinese manufacturers, then their Blu-ray products will remain expensive for a very long time.

If Howard Stringer goes to China, then Blu-ray has a chance. But he doesn't even like Tokyo as much as he likes London. Or so I've heard. ;)

The only person here talking about magic is you. An Automobile built 10 years ago would be very very cheap nowadays. New cars are about the same price as before because they offer much more or at least are different enough. How much would be a 1gh PC cost nowadays ($100)? Computers are as expensive because they've gotten faster and/or more powerful.

Assembly lines and the tech involved evolve over time. That's what engineers do. :rolleyes:

I really don't understand why early adopters would be so obsessed with price and are not prizing the more advanced format/media, especially on a tech forum.

Personally I don't see Blu-ray failing any time soon. Sony has deep pockets and the PS3 will go down in price until it becomes a bargain just like the PS2 is now. And then it will be just like a PS2 with a blu-ray player.

I really don't understand why early adopters would be so obsessed with price and are not prizing the more advanced format/media, especially on a tech forum.
.
Who said that anyone on this forum is obsessed with price? It's the general public that will go for the most inexpensive players--and that's what will determine the long range outcome.

But they better be careful. Chinese companies are known to make DVD players without paying for the license.

IIRC, the idea is to now make the SOC makers pay the royalties ...

Old argument that doesn't improve with age.Come on even the most loyal of HD DVD supporters knows that studio support is important and there is a reason that posters like rdjam try so hard to convince the major studios to support HD DVD. Because a video format without content is not much of a video format.


Number of studios doesn't matter, if they aren't releasing great numbers of movies.Agreed, but even with the set back with Fox there is still a greater number of major movies with Blu-ray. As long as that is true that is an advantage for Blu-ray just as the major movie support for Blu-ray and HD DVD is an advantage that they have over EVD and VMD.


And Disney doesn't like all these BD-J delays. Warner is not pleased either.Warner probably isn't happy about the delay with the BD-Video 1.1 player profile but I don't see any sign at all that Disney is that angry over it. In fact Disney seems to supporting Blu-ray well with releases like the two PoTC movies and Cars.


Nope, "cheap" by itself won't win, but performance at a good price will. Blu-ray needs to make affordable players.Sure, and I think there is little doubt of that happening. In fact I don't think that Blu-ray needs to equal the price of HD DVD as long as they are reasonably close to it.


Blu-ray PiP requirements are so high that they don't even exist.Not now, but when BD-Video 1.1 players do start shipping Blu-ray will gain another advantage over HD DVD while HD DVD will lose an advantage.


Actually, I want Blu-ray to survive forever, since its survival makes HD DVD look so very good.Personally speaking I want Blu-ray to win this format war since I see nothing in HD DVD that I consider important.


LOL, no offense but you have no idea how quickly studio support will follow any format that puts a sufficient number of players in the market.So you expect Universal to one day support Blu-ray than?

Looks like my comment caused quite a stir. :)....Timothy...no love for Star Wars eh? :D...Well, each of us has our own faults. :D I have loved it so much I even named my theater room after it:

Club Timobi Wan (http://smg.photobucket.com/albums/v485/Timobi/)

Star Wars would be huge for any given format.

Looks like my comment caused quite a stir. :)....Timothy...no love for Star Wars eh? :D...Well, each of us has our own faults. :D I have loved it so much I even named my theater room after it:

Club Timobi Wan (http://smg.photobucket.com/albums/v485/Timobi/)

Star Wars would be huge for any given format.

Aw, I hate to see a handsome young fella like yourself sucked into this addiction, but at this distance I'm afraid an intervention just isn't possible. ;) :)

Truthfully I have some pretty dubious guilty pleasures, don't know if the name means anything in these parts, but I like Jess Franco movies. There's no help for one who plumbs that realm of trash-art.

...they [Wal-Mart] will strong arm studios or whatever to get there way...They invaded - and retreated from - Germany, admitting defeat.
Even Wal-Mart does business mistakes.

Diogen.

:)...

Went to Wal mart earlier this evening and they are now selling the Sanyo 42 inch 720p Plasma for $989. It was $1300 2 months ago, then 1199...

They are competative on Plasmas for sure. They had 2 Panasonic plasmas and we know those are highly rated. Sam's should carry these "chinese" players too?

Originally Posted by webphilosopher
That works for the "Broadcom" part of the solution, but who from Blu-ray will provide the equivalent of the "Microsoft CE" operating system part of the solution?


Well considering that HDi was made by Microsoft it would seem logical that BD-J would be supported by Sun Microsystems. I think that would explain why they are on the BDA Board of Directors.

That doesn't seem to be what webphilosopher is asking. The interactive subsystems are not the "OS's" that are sitting on top of the hardware.... aka the "Microsoft [Windows] CE" referred to. The interactive subsystems are then built on top of the underlying OS.

Somehow I suspect this will be an embedded Linux distro... likely sourced by the chipset vendor moreso than the interactive layer vendor, i.e. Sun.

My point is: When asked for studies indicating that there was always a perceptible difference between lossless and lossy, you responded to the effect of: "Sure, when they publish a report indicating the sun is still there on a cloudy day. Studies aren't done to point out self evident truths.". The crux of that seems to indicate that given the obvious conclusion that a perceptual model doesn't contain the same info as the physical mechanism, that there would be no data.

Steve: no you missed my point. It was that no one makes studies to prove a tautology. So I don't think there will ever be a study that shows lossy is better then lossless because every one that would make a study to find out already knows the conclusion.



Given that you have claimed that lossy is not satisfactory (even if just for you), you have been asked a number of times if you've ever done tests yourself, if you have read any of the data that says the majority of tested listeners can't distinguish between lossless/lossy at sufficient datarates, etc... You have refused to directly address any of these.

it is up to you to show that it is wrong.

So I use color as a challenge to your statement that there would be no data regarding the "self evident" truth that the perceptual model used for display color delivery is obviously different from the physical mechanism in which color is radiated from a body. Would you maintain that there's no relevant studies to indicate the degree to which that perceptual model is effective in replicating the physical mechanism for color reproduction?
not sure what you mean

Actually, I was talking about both hardware and media. Given that HD DVD can be pressed on DVD lines, HD DVD replication will remain cheaper for a very, very long time.

no theuy can't. They can only bve produced on HD DVD lines

And that saving gets multiplied many times over for shorter runs (independents and small studios), since the original master is much more expensive for Blu-ray than it is for HD DVD. Frankly, Blu-ray just isn't worth the expense for small studios.

rubish. Go check the insiders forum. Amir admited some time ago there is no difference. HD DVD is now using the cheaper method developed by Sony for BD :)

LOL, no offense but you have no idea how quickly studio support will follow any format that puts a sufficient number of players in the market.

but there is only one format that can do that.

Even if one is to assume that it is 2M HD DVD players, that is end of 2008 2M in one year is not a lot and does not even come remotely close to what PS3 will do in 2007. That won't even counter the PS3 s sold today

your wrong i worked for walmart for 4yrs ! they will strong arm studios or whatever to get there way.lot of snobs on this forum think walmart is a poor man store,yes to jqp,but as a business they are powerful as anyone out there!

do you know what "without attracting regulatory concerns." means

but there is only one format that can do that.

Even if one is to assume that it is 2M HD DVD players, that is end of 2008 2M in one year is not a lot and does not even come remotely close to what PS3 will do in 2007. That won't even counter the PS3 s sold today
Yeah but it takes around 4 PS3s to equal one standalone in terms of disc sales.

do you know what "without attracting regulatory concerns." means

Unfortunately, not much these days.... :(

(repost from Nielson thread, better its here)

from a pro- HD DVD leading pundit but has some new points

http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback184.html

Wal-Mart Names HD DVD the Winner
By: Rob Enderle :D

of course his main reference is AVS, and the original article, but his reasoning may have a bit of sense, its has a dfferent angle. His thesis is its all about about Wal-Mart software sales , which is kinda maybe a little kinda maybe a little still on topic for this thread .

His main point is basically that Wal-Mart uses it DVD sales as a traffic builder an the transition to HD DVD may extend that model.
Wal-Mart uses DVDs to build store traffic. They tend to subsidize the price for the movies they feature to get folks into the stores and once there, these folks tend to buy other things. DVDs have been so effective for the company Wal-Mart sees the new high definition formats as a way to bring in store traffic again but they realized that won’t happen unless the players are affordable and there is only one standard. They recognized their own power in being king maker previously and are now using that power to drive the format that works best for them In short, the Blu-Ray aligned studios will now have to either support both formats or risk losing much of Wal-Mart's business and given how material this business is to them, you have to think that an anti-Wall-Mart decision would have a material impact on their bonuses and career longevity. ...So, if this move by Wal-Mart is true , and it appears to be (but we won’t know for sure for a few months yet), the format war is likely over and Wal-Mart has declared the winner.

but there is only one format that can do that.

Even if one is to assume that it is 2M HD DVD players, that is end of 2008 2M in one year is not a lot and does not even come remotely close to what PS3 will do in 2007. That won't even counter the PS3 s sold today

They've sold 3 millions PS3 unit. Although I've heard they shipped close to double that amount.

Steve: no you missed my point. It was that no one makes studies to prove a tautology. So I don't think there will ever be a study that shows lossy is better then lossless because every one that would make a study to find out already knows the conclusion.

No one ever said "lossy is better than lossless." You're shamelessly attempting to completely re-frame the issue. Obviously, transparently, with no apparent cognitive dissonance. How do you manage do that? :confused:

it is up to you to show that it is wrong.

What difference would it make? Wouldn't you either call him stupid, or a moron, or describe the testers, their protocol, and/or the entire notion of such a comparison with those adjectives?.............It wouldn't be the first time, now would it?

not sure what you mean

Do we, or do we not, have good technical/scientific data on the parameters of color accuracy in modern display devices, and how effectively ( or not ) the respective technologies are capable of replicating the full gamut of colors which occur in nature?

(repost from Nielson thread, better its here)

from a pro- HD DVD leading pundit but has some new points

http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback184.html

Wal-Mart Names HD DVD the Winner
By: Rob Enderle :D

of course his main reference is AVS, and the original article, but his reasoning may have a bit of sense, its has a dfferent angle. His thesis is its all about about Wal-Mart software sales , which is kinda maybe a little kinda maybe a little still on topic for this thread .

His main point is basically that Wal-Mart uses it DVD sales as a traffic builder an the transition to HD DVD may extend that model.

It's really no different than placing bread, butter, and milk at the back of the grocery store.

Yeah but it takes around 4 PS3s to equal one standalone in terms of disc sales.

but at at least 10M for 2007 that means 5:1 :)

Can Sony do anything if the chineses get their hands on bluray technology?

Maybe Toshiba learned from DVD and decided to give HD DVD away for small "fee", at least they get some royalties or hope to.

Nah Toshiba is biting its nose to spite its face.

Actually, I was talking about both hardware and media. Given that HD DVD can be pressed on DVD lines, HD DVD replication will remain cheaper for a very, very long time.
are you talking about those new hybrid hd/dvd lines? a replicator would still have to buy one which isn't going to save much money over buying a bd line. if you meant retooling then i'm still not aware of that actually happening anywhere.

but at at least 10M for 2007 that means 5:1 :)
I guess it can't hurt to be an optimist.;) That seems to be plan of Fox and Sony: Unbridled PR optimism. :p


are you talking about those new hybrid hd/dvd lines? a replicator would still have to buy one which isn't going to save much money over buying a bd line. if you meant retooling then i'm still not aware of that actually happening anywhere.
I was talking about about either retooling an existing line or buying a new line.

Even buying a new hybrid HD DVD/DVD line would save a huge amount of money over buying a dedicated BD line.

it would? do you have figures for buying either?

Steve: no you missed my point. It was that no one makes studies to prove a tautology. So I don't think there will ever be a study that shows lossy is better then lossless because every one that would make a study to find out already knows the conclusion.

Nope. You referred (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10318168&&#post10318168) to "hearing the difference". Nobody here has ever suggest lossy would be better than the souce.




not sure what you mean

What I mean is, when asked for some evidence that lossless was perceptibly better than lossless for the majority of the population, you stated (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10327480&&#post10327480):


I will show it to you when you show me an empirical study that shows the sun is still there on a cloudy day when it can't be seen.

No body makes studies for self evident stuff.

Therefore, if you feel that is the case, I use the example of color perception. Clearly RGB color displays exploit the human vision perceptual model to display color differently than how color is radiated in real life. Would you then say that there are no studies, because this is so "self evident"?

Even if one is to assume that it is 2M HD DVD players, that is end of 2008 2M in one year is not a lot and does not even come remotely close to what PS3 will do in 2007. That won't even counter the PS3 s sold today

Let us see. The 2M is for the US. How much has PS3 sold in the USA - some 1.3M. How much is it selling now-a-days - some 100K per month. So expect 2M by end of 2007 at this rate. Let us be very generous and add 1M during holidays. That is 3M.

I'd anyday take 2M stand alone players over 3M consoles. How about you ? Is that close enough ? :D

but at at least 10M for 2007 that means 5:1

10M in the US by end of 2007 ? :p

Therefore, if you feel that is the case, I use the example of color perception. Clearly RGB color displays exploit the human vision perceptual model to display color differently than how color is radiated in real life. Would you then say that there are no studies, because this is so "self evident"?
Anthony, there is a good article in the new issue of Widescreen Review on color vision. You can't win this one.

no theuy can't. They can only bve produced on HD DVD lines

Yes they can. BD requires NEW machines where current DVD lines can be tooled in a matter of minutes to press HD DVD

no theuy can't. They can only bve produced on HD DVD lines

Actually, I believe amir confirmed that they can use the same lines.

So you expect Universal to one day support Blu-ray than?

If BD becomes the dominant format in the market, then absolutely.

Just like Sony will support HD if it becomes the dominant format. Both companies has exhibited that behavior in the past. Universal went from DIVX to DVD and Sony went from Beta to VHS.

Yes they can. BD requires NEW machines where current DVD lines can be tooled in a matter of minutes to press HD DVD
this is not correct. the proof is in the pudding, and so far i've not heard of any dvd lines being retooled to manufacture hd dvds.

this is not correct. the proof is in the pudding, and so far i've not heard of any dvd lines being retooled to manufacture hd dvds.

ahem* PacificDisc?

I believe we've heard that lines may be upgraded. A "matter of minutes" sounds a bit too rhetorical as IIRC it still costs something like $150-300k or something like that, but don't think anyone would dispute that it's cheaper than a new Blu-ray line.

ahem* PacificDisc?
spoke to the fella via pm and he didn't know if his replicators were using retooled lines or not.

There is always a fine line - after which they will get into to trouble. It is difficult to say when ....


They don't even have to strong arm them, all they have to do, is say they will no longer carry Sony movies, or whatever studio it may be. Wal-Mart is the largest retail store in the world, companies stand at attention when Wal-Mart threatens something like that. They don't have to carry a product, it's a choice. That's how Wal-Mart gets their way and can have such low prices.

spoke to the fella via pm and he didn't know if his replicators were using retooled lines or not.

My Question
Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk
Forgive me if this has been asked before, but currently are HD DVDs being replicated on presses created just for HD DVD? I know that I've heard HD DVD could potentially utilize preexisting SD presses.
Amir's response
I don't believe there is such an animal. All equipment that can manufacture HD DVD, can also switch over (in a matter of minutes) to replicate SD DVDs. Not sure why someone would make and market equipment that would do otherwise.

is that an implicit confirmation from amir that re-tooling is not being carried out on pre-exisisting dvd lines? he states that hd dvd lines are all capable of being switched to produce dvds, but says nothing about the issue at hand. hd dvd lines are by their nature new equipment.

is that an implicit confirmation from amir that re-tooling is not being carried out on pre-exisisting dvd lines? he states that hd dvd lines are all capable of being switched to produce dvds, but says nothing about the issue at hand. hd dvd lines are by their nature new equipment.

I'm wondering if he flubbed my answer by reversing the formats names as that wasn't the question I asked.

Have you heard this isn't possible, or is it just you own doubt? There certainly has been no shortage of articles on HD DVD that state it's possibility. I thought that was one of the aims of the formats creators, no?

Why not pose the question in the tech forum yourself to obtain a more informed answer?

i'm not claiming it's not possible, re-tooling was apparently demonstrated way back before hd dvd even launched. the issue is whether it's economically viable - in other words, if it's too expensive to re-tool compared to simply buying a new line. if it was cheap to do why have all the hd dvd lines we've so far heard about turned out to be new aquisitions?

Yeah but it takes around 4 PS3s to equal one standalone in terms of disc sales.That is a guess. After all we don't know what the attach rate is for either the current stand alone HD DVD players or the Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on. And we certainly don't know what the attach rate of the Wal-Mart HD DVD players will be or how many of them will even be sold this year.


Can Sony do anything if the chineses get their hands on bluray technology?There is certainly nothing that prevents a Chinese CE company from making a Blu-ray player. HD DVD players are cheaper to make and Microsoft/Broadcom are encouraging the construction of HD DVD players, but at the end of the day the Chinese CE companies will build players for what ever video format they can sell.


How much has PS3 sold in the USA - some 1.3M. How much is it selling now-a-days - some 100K per month. So expect 2M by end of 2007 at this rate. Let us be very generous and add 1M during holidays. That is 3M.nataraj, at times I don't know if you are kidding or if you truly dislike Sony so much that you really believe such things. For one thing it is common for a game console to have a slump this time of year after being initially released and if you look at the table at the bottom of this webpage (http://www.vgcharts.com/page3.html) you will see that is normal. Also the second year holiday sales for game consoles are almost always a lot better than the first since they have a better selection of exclusive games to attract gamers.


I'd anyday take 2M stand alone players over 3M consoles.That doesn't sound bad, but that isn't what is going to happen from what I have read. The 2 million HD DVD players Wal-Mart ordered will only begin construction in August and won't finish shipping until the end of next year (assuming of course that things go well). By that time there will likely be over 10 million PS3 game consoles in the US and a good number of Blu-ray stand alone players as well.

Given that they sell "maybe" 3 million when they claim they will sell 6 million I doubt they will even approach 6 million in total sales for 2007. Nothing you can say will convince most reasonable people that they will given their track record. I formally predict that they sell somewhere between 4-5 million PS3s' by the end of 2007 and will bet you just about anything reasonable that I am closer than your prediction. The hard core folks have their players and the casual gamers and not choosing the PS3.

Heck they are still not even gaining on the 360 month over month hahaa. Whatever, Sony goofed big, you know it we all know it, they know it get over it.

In any case it doesnt really matter. 2 million stand alone players means I get HD-DVD movies for a long long time. 2 million players (to start with by the way) means that Disney and others provide movies. Its a no brainer. Spin it any way you want, but you will not convince people otherwise. None of this means Blu-Ray goes anywhere, but it for sure ensure that HD-DVD does not either and your precious Studio support advantage will go bye bye as well. I dont consider Sony on its own much of an advantage.

Enjoy, twist, rant and preach, but the future is to painfully obvious as to make your ever more despirate attempts to twist things laughable.

Cheers,

Richard

Feel free to completely ignore the accpeted reality that setting up a BR line costs around 3 times that of retrofitting an HD-DVD line.

Claiming price parity again and again does not make it reality. I guess the manufacturer published disk authoring pricies where BR's cost 35% more each are all BS also hahaa.

Cheers,

Richard

Feel free to completely ignore the accpeted reality that setting up a BR line costs around 3 times that of retrofitting an HD-DVD line.

Claiming price parity again and again does not make it reality. I guess the manufacturer published disk authoring pricies where BR's cost 35% more each are all BS also hahaa.

Cheers,

Richard
where have we heard the cost of re-tooling a dvd line to make hd dvds? accepted reality is no substitute for the actual reality.

Well Richard "That doesn't sound bad, but that isn't what is going to happen from what I have read. The 2 million HD DVD players Wal-Mart ordered will only begin construction in August and won't finish shipping until the end of next year (assuming of course that things go well). By that time there will likely be over 10 million PS3 game consoles in the US and a good number of Blu-ray stand alone players as well. "]

Is it 10 million by the end of 2007 or 2008?

I predict 5 million stand along HD-DVD players by the end of 2008 or maybe that is 2010, but I am right hahaa. Whatever.

Cheers

Most of us saw Star Wars on HBO and Cinemax, so the pent up demand is lessened somewhat. I doubt the average person is going to see that Star Wars is available on either Blu-ray or HD DVD and immediately run out and buy a player. Gradually, the general public will warm to these formats, and Star Wars will probably not even be released until there are a lot more players out there.

I'm behind on my posts... but I had to say that George Lucas does seem to wait a long time before releasing his Star Wars in any new format (example DVD). I've heard he's very picky about his releases to make sure everything looks the way he wants. Also heard that a lot of time goes into the extras on his movies.

Given that they sell "maybe" 3 million when they claim they will sell 6 million I doubt they will even approach 6 million in total sales for 2007.
the problem with memories is that they can be selective. i believe the actual quote from sony (the "they" i'm guessing you're refering to) was that they were going to ship 6mil not sell 6mil.

i'm not claiming it's not possible, re-tooling was apparently demonstrated way back before hd dvd even launched. the issue is whether it's economically viable - in other words, if it's too expensive to re-tool compared to simply buying a new line. if it was cheap to do why have all the hd dvd lines we've so far heard about turned out to be new aquisitions?


Well, we can only guess. My guess is that you would have to find someone who no longer wants their SD pressing business, because a voluntary conversion would necessitate a more stable product. That's neither HD or BD.

Where the savings and efficiency comes in is when you see DVD plant's attracted by the viability of the new formats. I'm sure if HDM shows signs of taking off they would rather take some risk and join HD DVD than risk being beaten by Blu-ray.

That is a guess. After all we don't know what the attach rate is for either the current stand alone HD DVD players or the Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on. And we certainly don't know what the attach rate of the Wal-Mart HD DVD players will be or how many of them will even be sold this year.
Yes it's a guess, but I'd say I'm in good company with my guess of 4 PS3s = 1 standalone.

Paramount's own analyst guesses 4.5 PS3s = 1 standalone, and Paramount is a format neutral studio.

I'm behind on my posts... but I had to say that George Lucas does seem to wait a long time before releasing his Star Wars in any new format (example DVD). I've heard he's very picky about his releases to make sure everything looks the way he wants. Also heard that a lot of time goes into the extras on his movies.

Yes, nobody rests on their laurels quite as soundly as George Lucas. :D

Well Richard "That doesn't sound bad, but that isn't what is going to happen from what I have read. The 2 million HD DVD players Wal-Mart ordered will only begin construction in August and won't finish shipping until the end of next year (assuming of course that things go well). By that time there will likely be over 10 million PS3 game consoles in the US and a good number of Blu-ray stand alone players as well. "]

Is it 10 million by the end of 2007 or 2008?

I predict 5 million stand along HD-DVD players by the end of 2008 or maybe that is 2010, but I am right hahaa. Whatever.

Cheers

I was under the impression the HD DVD cheapo's were going to be in stores by the end of the fourth quarter 2007?

I was under the impression the HD DVD cheapo's were going to be in stores by the end of the fourth quarter 2007?
The claim is late 2007 for initial shipments, but the whole deal won't be over until some time in 2008.

And don't forget people, the Wal-Mart Chinese HD DVD player deal is NOT the only Chinese HD DVD deal.

If the CES PR has any truth to it, there should be players available in 2007 from several other Chinese manufacturers.

That works both ways. I, and most reasonable people I think can accept the overwelming sentiments that this is the case. Info coming from varied sources such as independent studios looking to do some releases validate the price differencials.

You can spin it any way you like and call it into question, but I challenge you to even provide any 3rd party who claims BR is cheaper or doesn't cost three times as much to get a production line up and running hahaa.

Just cause you attempt to cast doubt doesn't mean it isnt true either.

Yeah I am a little fuzzy on when the players are supposed to start / finish arriving, but in the end it doesnt really matter. With Wal-Mart having 2 million made that ensure the life of HD-DVD regardless.

If these were Blu-Ray then all the same folks trying to downplay it would be claiming BR victory and they well may be right in that case. In this case it does not give HD-DVD the win, but it sure does ensure at least co-existence and my having access to the movies I want eventually.

I wont debate it further with pump BR no matter what folks, I just kind of reached my gag point there momentarily. Lets wait till the end of this year or mid next year to see who was correct and who was playing damage control.

PS. Are you sure that by 10 million Sony didn't mean that they would have bought the 10 million BR logo's for the 10 million PS3's they would someday build? I am sure they will have some fallback spin on the 10 million. Entertainment at its greatest watching them spin and spin and spin.

Cheers

If these were Blu-Ray then all the same folks trying to downplay it would be claiming BR victory and they well may be right in that case. In this case it does not give HD-DVD the win, but it sure does ensure at least co-existence and my having access to the movies I want eventually.


We definitely agree on that. Has anyone claimed otherwise from the BD side?

hahaa.



Plonk.

There are lots of efforts to deflect it. Stuff like. will they be any good? when will we see them? Are we sure they are not BR players, no one shops HDHT at Wal-Mart etc etc.

Many claim it will have no effect on the studio's as well. There are posts and posts and posts of it. Its one thing to be a booster for your prefered format, its another thing entirely to check your brain at the keyboard and blindly support your format beyond reasonable expectations.

There are those who engage in reasonable dialogue and those who will attempt spin or miss-direction no matter what the subject.

I enjoy reading posts from those that speculate in good faith on future events based on fact or reasonable assumptions. I have little patience for those that do the latter. To each his or her own of course.

It doesn't take a genius to identify the two. There are plenty of things that HD-DVD could be doing better that is for sure. How they end up having MORE compatibility issues with second gen hardware than 1st gen hardware is beyond be for example.

I am a project manager and I deal with excuses all the time. I hate when I call someone to task about something and they try to deflect it with something else. Peter why were you late to the meeting? Peter "Well Steve was late back from lunch yesterday". Ok, We can deal with the Steve issue after, but for now please explain why you were late?

Cheers,

Richard

By that time there will likely be over 10 million PS3 game consoles in the US

It is also likely that 5-6 million of those will be still sitting on shelves at the end of the year.

That is a guess. After all we don't know what the attach rate is for either the current stand alone HD DVD players or the Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on. And we certainly don't know what the attach rate of the Wal-Mart HD DVD players will be or how many of them will even be sold this year.


There is certainly nothing that prevents a Chinese CE company from making a Blu-ray player. HD DVD players are cheaper to make and Microsoft/Broadcom are encouraging the construction of HD DVD players, but at the end of the day the Chinese CE companies will build players for what ever video format they can sell.


nataraj, at times I don't know if you are kidding or if you truly dislike Sony so much that you really believe such things. For one thing it is common for a game console to have a slump this time of year after being initially released and if you look at the table at the bottom of this webpage (http://www.vgcharts.com/page3.html) you will see that is normal. Also the second year holiday sales for game consoles are almost always a lot better than the first since they have a better selection of exclusive games to attract gamers.


That doesn't sound bad, but that isn't what is going to happen from what I have read. The 2 million HD DVD players Wal-Mart ordered will only begin construction in August and won't finish shipping until the end of next year (assuming of course that things go well). By that time there will likely be over 10 million PS3 game consoles in the US and a good number of Blu-ray stand alone players as well.


Actually, a number of folks are predicting they'll be here in July.

There are lots of efforts to deflect it. Stuff like. will they be any good?I would think this is a valid question. If based on the new Broadcom chip, I have no doubt the A/V quality will be good, unless they go too far in lowering the cost of the power supply and PCB side of things. I don't see Broadcom and Microsoft letting that happen though. When it comes to construction quality, in most cases that's up in the air regardless of the manufacturer.

Are we sure they are not BR playersOf course, the concept that they could order both type of players hasn't occurred to anyone. :rolleyes: Personally, I would think that they would prefer to sell only universal players to minimize customer issues.

How they end up having MORE compatibility issues with second gen hardware than 1st gen hardware is beyond be for example.It all depends on how related the 2G design is to the 1G design, both in hardware and software. Plus any changes on the content side with new encoders, features, etc.

It took 3-4 years for DVD player designs to settle down. During that time, we had to test almost every movie that came out. We're doing the same thing now, and will likely have to for a couple of years. And a few new DVDs are creating problems, so it's back to checking those out also. Plus checking playback of discs made by all the new recorders with all kinds of recorded content.

it would? do you have figures for buying either?

Toshiba takes European lead over Sony in HD
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18013123/

"A HD-DVD replication line costs about €800,000 ($1m) and you can make 40,000 discs a day on it. A Blu-Ray replication line costs €1.7m or €1.8m and you can make 10,000 to 15,000 discs a day," says Laurent Villaume, chief executive of Qol, a French DVD replication company. "The risk is just not the same."

LOL, no offense but you have no idea how important studio support is for a video format. The "Blu-ray ship" will never crash as long as there are major studios exclusive to it. In fact considering that more major studios are exclusive to Blu-ray I think it is HD DVD that has to do more simply to prove that it will stick around.



Like the Titanic the "The "Blu-ray ship" is about to hit the iceberg called WalMart and like the Titanic it will go down. ;)

Of course, the concept that they could order both type of players hasn't occurred to anyone. :rolleyes:I figured that even if they only ordered HD DVD players, they would be open to ordering Blu-ray players and any info about them ordering HD DVD players would add some incentive for the Blu-ray side to get them something that would at least be close enough in price. If HD DVD players really are going to be sold for $199 near Christmas, then I think it is important for the Blu-ray side to be down to at least $299 against those. $199 and $399 would be too far apart and I would put my wager on HD DVD if that were the case. Of course, the PS3 and add-ons come in, but if there aren't price reductions there, these standalones should become more important with time.
Personally, I would think that they would prefer to sell only universal players to minimize customer issues.I thought about that, but wondered if they could get close enough to their desired price point by the end of this year.

If the rumor about Wal-mart and HD DVD is true, then I think most of the dreams about protecting high prices and high margins on the players need to be forgotten in order to really compete.

--Darin

where have we heard the cost of re-tooling a dvd line to make hd dvds? accepted reality is no substitute for the actual reality.


http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10132827&highlight=replication#post10132827

"The main reason the costs are so different is cost to get in the game. As previously discussed, HD DVDs can be made on modified DVD9 lines. Whereas Blu-rays need new/specialized lines which cost a bazillion dollars."

Given that they sell "maybe" 3 million when they claim they will sell 6 million I doubt they will even approach 6 million in total sales for 2007. Nothing you can say will convince most reasonable people that they will given their track record.I think it is quite possible that the PS3 could sell a total of 6 million consoles worldwide by the end of the year.


I formally predict that they sell somewhere between 4-5 million PS3s' by the end of 2007 and will bet you just about anything reasonable that I am closer than your prediction.Just to clarify this but you would be willing to bet that the total worldwide PS3 sells will be under 5.5 million consoles by the end of this year and that if you lost the bet you would do "just about anything reasonable"?


2 million players (to start with by the way) means that Disney and others provide movies. Its a no brainer. Spin it any way you want, but you will not convince people otherwise.That is a personal opinion and not a fact.


None of this means Blu-Ray goes anywhere, but it for sure ensure that HD-DVD does not either and your precious Studio support advantage will go bye bye as well.Do you have any evidence that Sony, Fox, Disney, or Lionsgate is going to go neutral? If not than you are stating a personal opinion as a fact.


Enjoy, twist, rant and preach, but the future is to painfully obvious as to make your ever more despirate attempts to twist things laughable.Do you feel insulted simply because I disagree with your view of the future?


Is it 10 million by the end of 2007 or 2008?When I said "end of next year" that would mean end of 2008.


Yeah I am a little fuzzy on when the players are supposed to start / finish arriving, but in the end it doesnt really matter.I think it matters a lot in terms of the format war.


In this case it does not give HD-DVD the win, but it sure does ensure at least co-existence and my having access to the movies I want eventually.I don't see how it guarantees co-existence. If it happens it would increase the chance of it, but if Universal starts supporting Blu-ray within the next 2 years I personally don't see HD DVD lasting long afterwards.


I am a project manager and I deal with excuses all the time.What excuse do you have for your rude behavior in this thread?

Yes they can. BD requires NEW machines where current DVD lines can be tooled in a matter of minutes to press HD DVD
not in minutes, hours and days, but the guy did not say retooled lines he said

Given that HD DVD can be pressed on DVD lines

and that is not right any way you slice it.

Nope. You referred to "hearing the difference". Nobody here has ever suggest lossy would be better than the souce....


steve no time right now, when I hget a chance I will do a search and reply to the rest of the post

i'm not claiming it's not possible, re-tooling was apparently demonstrated way back before hd dvd even launched. the issue is whether it's economically viable - in other words, if it's too expensive to re-tool compared to simply buying a new line. if it was cheap to do why have all the hd dvd lines we've so far heard about turned out to be new aquisitions?

Issac, the first HD DVD lines were retooled DVD lines (At some point I think memory tech had 8 or so retooled lines. Then they worked with Singulus to develop the spaceline HD DVD replication lines

According to Cinram they went with new lines because the retooled lines are much slowere with much higher rejects. According to what they said at the time (mid-end 2005) they went with new lines because in one year the benefit of new lines pays for itself. (you know like paying more for a more efficient windows for example)

There is also the fact that all indications are that the new HD DVD lines can switch in minutes from HD DVD to DVD but that the converted lines can't.

You can spin it any way you like and call it into question, but I challenge you to even provide any 3rd party who claims BR is cheaper or doesn't cost three times as much to get a production line up and running hahaa.

go back to Cinram and the quarterly results for either the 2 or 3 q 2005.

That is a personal opinion and not a fact.

Do you have any evidence that Sony, Fox, Disney, or Lionsgate is going to go neutral? If not than you are stating a personal opinion as a fact.


Richard I see you two are in a bit of a snit, but making predictions isn't quite the same thing as stating personal opinion as fact.

Then stating the opposite view would qualify too.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10132827&highlight=replication#post10132827

"The main reason the costs are so different is cost to get in the game. As previously discussed, HD DVDs can be made on modified DVD9 lines. Whereas Blu-rays need new/specialized lines which cost a bazillion dollars."
yep, as i posted earlier up in this thread i spoke to that fella via pm after that post and he didn't infact know if his replicators were using retooled lines or not.

Originally Posted by AnthonyP
Steve: no you missed my point. It was that no one makes studies to prove a tautology. So I don't think there will ever be a study that shows lossy is better then lossless because every one that would make a study to find out already knows the conclusion.

Nope. You referred (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10318168&&#post10318168) to "hearing the difference". Nobody here has ever suggest lossy would be better than the souce.

Originally Posted by AnthonyP
not sure what you mean

What I mean is, when asked for some evidence that lossless was perceptibly better than lossless for the majority of the population, you stated (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10327480&&#post10327480):

I will show it to you when you show me an empirical study that shows the sun is still there on a cloudy day when it can't be seen.

No body makes studies for self evident stuff.


Therefore, if you feel that is the case, I use the example of color perception. Clearly RGB color displays exploit the human vision perceptual model to display color differently than how color is radiated in real life. Would you then say that there are no studies, because this is so "self evident"?


I see for the second time you opted to not respond to this, despite having responded in many threads, including this one.

yep, as i posted earlier up in this thread i spoke to that fella via pm after that post and he didn't infact know if his replicators were using retooled lines or not.


So in spite of a broad proliferation claims that DVD lines can be retooled for HD DVD, someone "not-knowing" is conclusive evidence against?

For those who say the 2 million Chinese HD-DVD players won't make a difference, because they are at Wal-Mart:

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/WalMartEffectStrikesAgain.aspx


Last "Black Friday," for its annual post-Thanksgiving sales blitz, Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, news, msgs) decided to slash the price of one of the hottest electronics items for the holidays, the 42-inch flat-panel TV, to $988. The world's largest retailer had staked similarly audacious positions before, in numerous product categories, as part of its quest to remain U.S. retailing's "low-price leader."

In turn, Wal-Mart's move caused a free fall in prices of flat-panel televisions at hundreds of retailers -- to the glee of many people who were able to afford their first big-screen plasma or liquid-crystal-display (LCD) model.

Now, it is becoming apparent that Wal-Mart's calculated decision to break the $1,000 barrier for flat-panel TVs triggered a disastrous financial meltdown among some consumer-electronics retailers over the past four months.

Get free, real-time stock quotes on MSN Money

The fallout is evident: After closing 70 stores in February, Circuit City Stores (CC, news, msgs) on March 28 laid off 3,400 employees and put its 800 Canadian stores on the block. Tweeter Home Entertainment Group (TWTR, news, msgs), a high-end home entertainment store, is shuttering 49 of its 153 stores and dismissed 650 workers. CompUSA is closing 126 of its 229 stores, and regional retailer Rex Stores (RSC, news, msgs) is boarding up dozens of outlets, as well as selling 94 of its 211 stores.

"The tube business and big-screen business just dropped off a cliff," says Stuart Rose, chief executive officer of Rex Stores. "We expected a drop-off, but nowhere near the decline that we had."

Clearly, these retailers are taking such drastic measures because they don't see any respite in sight.

Since early February, when the companies first started closing stores and announcing layoffs, most of their stock prices also have been battered. Circuit City shares have fallen 24%, to $18.76, since the end of November, when the price war started. In the same period, Tweeter's shares declined 32%, to $1.72, near a 52-week low, and Best Buy's (BBY, news, msgs) stock is down 9%, to $48.73. Shares of Rex Stores have been flat, down 0.7%, to $16.98.

The carnage has one phrase written all over it: the "Wal-Mart effect." For many electronics competitors, the experience with flat panels has been a replay of what happened in other sectors over the past two decades as Wal-Mart's business stature grew dramatically

In turn, Wal-Mart's move caused a free fall in prices of flat-panel televisions at hundreds of retailers...And lots of grief for the ODMs who are now under tremendous pressure to keep lowering costs as much as possible as fast as possible. Ironically, the outcome of all this is less choice for consumers. :)

And don't forget less stores since a whole bunch are closing.

And don't forget less stores since a whole bunch are closing.


Come on now, you know even with store closings Walmart will remain by far the biggest retail entity there is as long as this HD thingy is around. What point is there in trying to characterize them any differently?

What will be will be when either format breaks the $200 barrier. I don't know how much the power of early-adopter opinion ever played in this struggle, but if places like AVS ever had a modicum of influence on the future of HDM, that goes right out the window as soon as the player price takes it away.

Do you have any evidence that Sony, Fox, Disney, or Lionsgate is going to go neutral? If not than you are stating a personal opinion as a fact.


With Studio Canal, is it still okay to consider Lionsgate Exclusive? Not being argumentative, just curious. I thought all Lionsgate releases in the US were being releases by Studio Canal across the pond -- or is it just a subset that they're releasing?

With Studio Canal, is it still okay to consider Lionsgate Exclusive?Yes. Their titles may not be exclusive to one format worldwide, but the studio itself still is.

Come on now, you know even with store closings Walmart will remain by far the biggest retail entity there is as long as this HD thingy is around.

Many people despise going to Wal Mart and would gladly pay a little extra to go to places like Target, BB, and Jerk it City? I shudder at the thought of Wal Mart being the primary option. Do you shop at Wal Mart?

Of course, if that's your last hope in the format war, you've got nothing else to fall back on...

Many people despise going to Wal Mart and would gladly pay a little extra to go to places like Target, BB, and Jerk it City? I shudder at the thought of Wal Mart being the primary option. Do you shop at Wal Mart?

Of course, if that's your last hope in the format war, you've got nothing else to fall back on...

More people don't "despise" going to Wal-Mart, that's why they are the #1 retailer in the world. When it comes to winning the HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray battle, Wal-Mart is going to be the key factor. Wal-Mart will sell ALL 2 million of those units, probably as fast as they get them in. That means 10's of millions in HD-DVD disc sales, BR won't be able to keep up, even with the failing PS3.

Even the people who "despise" going to Wal-Mart, still do...anything to save a few bucks.

yep, as i posted earlier up in this thread i spoke to that fella via pm after that post and he didn't infact know if his replicators were using retooled lines or not.

This is specualtion on my part, but give me your opinion.

Perhaps current DVD lines are relatively busy and most replicators would rather install a new line instead of converting an existing line? Conversion becomes more attractive when DVD volumes start to drop (we're no where close to that currently).

So now replicators will be looking at their options.......

Toshiba takes European lead over Sony in HD
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18013123/

"A HD-DVD replication line costs about €800,000 ($1m) and you can make 40,000 discs a day on it. A Blu-Ray replication line costs €1.7m or €1.8m and you can make 10,000 to 15,000 discs a day," says Laurent Villaume, chief executive of Qol, a French DVD replication company. "The risk is just not the same."

An HD-DVD line is much lower cost and much higher output, plus offers the investment protection of being able to output SD DVDs as well.

Richard I see you two are in a bit of a snit, but making predictions isn't quite the same thing as stating personal opinion as fact.Look carefully at what RROSEN did in his last several posts in this thread. Besides mocking my personal opinions, often without even explaining why, he insulted me even for having such opinions. Also he repeatedly stated personal opinions as facts adding on that anyone who disagrees with those opinions is "spinning".


Then stating the opposite view would qualify too.I don't really care what his personal opinions are I just find his rude and insulting behavior to be unneeded in this thread and certainly not the sign of someone who wants "reasonable dialogue".


With Studio Canal, is it still okay to consider Lionsgate Exclusive?In my view it would be, and for instance if a few Universal releases came out on Blu-ray in another country I don't think that they would have necessarily gone neutral.


I thought all Lionsgate releases in the US were being releases by Studio Canal across the pond -- or is it just a subset that they're releasing?I don't really know what Studio Canal has specifically released in HD DVD. In fact if you have been keeping up on the news about Studio Canal have they started releasing their second wave of HD DVD releases yet? I read something a while back about them pushing back their schedule because of the AACS hack and that they were going to wait for the fix to that.

Many people despise going to Wal Mart and would gladly pay a little extra to go to places like Target, BB, and Jerk it City? I shudder at the thought of Wal Mart being the primary option. Do you shop at Wal Mart?

Of course, if that's your last hope in the format war, you've got nothing else to fall back on...

Stores like Target and Kmart will be selling their own brands of inexpensive Chinese players. Fuh Yuan (actually Taiwanese) isn't the only company that is going to make these. In some instances, only the cosmetics will vary (box and remote), with the same electronics found inside.

Wal-Mart will sell ALL 2 million of those units, probably as fast as they get them in.


Bueller? You do know how long the HD-D1 lingered around right? And how many of them were clearanced?

Stores like Target and Kmart will be selling their own brands of inexpensive Chinese players. Fuh Yuan (actually Taiwanese) isn't the only company that is going to make these. In some instances, only the cosmetics will vary (box and remote), with the same electronics found inside.

Without having the 1st or 2nd gens around to compare it should be interesting to see if they sell better than the HD-D1 did at Wal Mart...

Funny, this is what I say to most Christians.
:D

Many people despise going to Wal Mart and would gladly pay a little extra to go to places like Target, BB, and Jerk it City? I shudder at the thought of Wal Mart being the primary option. Do you shop at Wal Mart?

Of course, if that's your last hope in the format war, you've got nothing else to fall back on...

No more than once or twice a year when I don't find what I want elsewhere. Every time I go I have to park on the moon because the lot is so full. So what I do doesn't much matter.

Besides you'll see those players at Best Buy and Target too.

I said I bet that my 5 million (SOLD in people homes) prediction is a lot closer to reality than your 10 million prediction and I am pretty sure you stated initially by the end of this year.

Who knows if they will drop the PS3 price enough to move 10 million by the end of next year.

I thought I was expressing annoyance for a posting style and not a particular person. I guess if the shoe fits.

If I say something then that is my oppinion based on logical conclusions based on what I am seeing. If I think something is fact I will state it as so.

Enjoy,

Richard

I said I bet that my 5 million (SOLD in people homes) prediction is a lot closer to reality than your 10 million prediction and I am pretty sure you stated initially by the end of this year.

Who knows if they will drop the PS3 price enough to move 10 million by the end of next year.

I thought I was expressing annoyance for a posting style and not a particular person. I guess if the shoe fits.

If I say something then that is my oppinion based on logical conclusions based on what I am seeing. If I think something is fact I will state it as so.

Enjoy,

Richard

The PS3 will no longer be sold to non-gamers once decent BD standalone players undercut it.

Really all bets are off when the bottom drops out of the player market, then things cease to be about the details that are lobbed about here. Theres a real "ready or not, here we come" pressure that will build beneath their arrival.

Regardless of what we know about the details, I'm sure all the truly vested parties do.

I said I bet that my 5 million (SOLD in people homes) prediction is a lot closer to reality than your 10 million prediction and I am pretty sure you stated initially by the end of this year.No, I said the end of next year (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10380950&&#post10380950). I did find it a bit strange that you were willing to make a bet with me without caring what my prediction would be but in between the ranting and mocking there were a lot of things you posted that were less than logical.


I thought I was expressing annoyance for a posting style and not a particular person. I guess if the shoe fits.No offense but comments like this one are hardly "reasonable dialogue" so why do you keep making them? Also you both mocked and insulted me in your posts so of course I took it personally.

Bueller? You do know how long the HD-D1 lingered around right?

I have a bad memory. How much were those HD-A1/D1's selling for? :p

For the past few weeks, reports have been flying around the Internet claiming that the format war is nearly over, thanks to new sales figures, dual-format players, and the involvement of the biggest of the big-box retailers.

Samsung started the news with the announcement of their Duo HD player, a welcome addition to the HD DVD camp, according to Toshiba.

"We welcome Samsung's announcement of a player that supports HD DVD, who launched only Blu-ray players so far," according to a Toshiba spokesperson. "We understand this reflects Samsung's positive evaluation on HD DVD's advantages, particularly interactivity and internet connectivity. We are pleased that understanding of HD DVD's advantages is increasing."


It seems odd that a company that was strictly BR, would start manufacturing a HD-DVD/BR dual format player. Unless they are preparing to jump ship with BR, or they just don't want to take any chances. If they don't want to take chances, that must mean they have lost some faith in Sony.

Ummm...wow!

Talk about a huge pile driver to the ps3's head! Sams Club members can now get a HDDVD drive for $72.54, yep as you can see above, sams club members are offloading the hddvd drive for 72$. Don't forget this baby works with the 360 and your PC!

On top of that for $72 this and the fact that Walmart has ordered those 2 million low cost hddvd players to go onsale soon. Does this mean that HDDVD is getting ready to MASSIVELY flood the market??? I mean at 72$ this babys hit the main pricepoint for a usb addon drive (for pc and 360) and with a 200$ hddvd standalone that's a HUGE deal! As hitting 200$ and under while a competitor is over 500-700$ normally is a huge point to whos getting ready to win the war. Will this surge in consumers with hddvd drives mean that we'll see more studios jumping to release HDDVD copies of their movies.

http://www.nextechnews.com/default.aspx

This has been confirmed as an in-store price only, if they are in stock that is. Online pricing is different.

If it works with my pc, I'm so there. My pc is hooked up to my projector, how sweet it is!

Many people despise going to Wal Mart and would gladly pay a little extra to go to places like Target, BB, and Jerk it City? I shudder at the thought of Wal Mart being the primary option. Do you shop at Wal Mart?

Of course, if that's your last hope in the format war, you've got nothing else to fall back on...

Do you need to go to WalMart to get a cheap DVD player now ?

If WalMart has an inexpensive no-brand HD DVD player - be sure you will get it in the big box retailer of your choice ...

It seems odd that a company that was strictly BR, would start manufacturing a HD-DVD/BR dual format player.Not really, Samsung has been thinking of doing it for a while and we still don't know much about their universal player besides the fact that they have it planned for release later this year.


http://www.nextechnews.com/default.aspx

This has been confirmed as an in-store price only, if they are in stock that is.It also depends on the individual store and there is a thread (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=839292) in the Xbox section of the forum on this story.

Not really, Samsung has been thinking of doing it for a while and we still don't know much about their universal player besides the fact that they have it planned for release later this year.


It also depends on the individual store and there is a thread (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=839292) in the Xbox section of the forum on this story.

Darn. I guess if I find one over lunch tomorrow at that price I'll actually have to buy it. I've had no intention of buying either format for awhile since I don't have HDMI and only use an HTPC. So I can't play either format without ripping the darn things and that hasn't seemed worth it yet.

But if it's really sub-100$ I guess I must.

- Tom

Ummm...wow!Looks like a firesale. They may have problems selling them.

Actually, since they have been hacked I worry about them being revoked. But at this price I'll gamble.

- Tom

In my view it would be, and for instance if a few Universal releases came out on Blu-ray in another country I don't think that they would have necessarily gone neutral.

Good poing, fair enough ...


I don't really know what Studio Canal has specifically released in HD DVD. In fact if you have been keeping up on the news about Studio Canal have they started releasing their second wave of HD DVD releases yet? I read something a while back about them pushing back their schedule because of the AACS hack and that they were going to wait for the fix to that.

Yup, I heard the same ... I just didn't know if Studio Canal was releasing everything that Lionsgate did or if it was just a subset of their content. I suppose I can do some digging and see, but I was hoping someone knew the answer. ;)

Actually, since they have been hacked I worry about them being revoked. But at this price I'll gamble.

- Tom

I think that's more of a concern for the playback software as opposed to the add-on. My understanding is that it's pretty much just a drive, while the playback software is actually running on the Xbox360 or a PC.

I see for the second time you opted to not respond to this, despite having responded in many threads, including this one.


I chose not to reply because it was late and I was tired (reading your constent BS takes a lot out of a person :) ).

Yes I responded to other threads and other posts, but by the time I got to yours I did not have the time, unlike you I ma nopt paid to be here during the day and write grbadge to push an agenda. I come here after a full day of working and I come to read about a hobby of mine, usually working on some projects on my PCs while they are compiling or calculating.


Therefore, if you feel that is the case, I use the example of color perception. Clearly RGB color displays exploit the human vision perceptual model to display color differently than how color is radiated in real life.

obviously everything is about faking life. Do you think movement is a bunch of stillness with change every 1/24 sec? The trick is to mimic reality in such a way that your sensors give you the impression of reality. If you see a table is it producing light? no reflecting, If you look at a lampshade is the light reflected? no it is direct. If you are watching a scene of a lamp on a table on a direct view set, what is happening? the lamp is like reality the table is not, when you watch it on a projector? the table is like reality and the lamp is not. Soundwaves can be created from different ways is that important for the way we hear? Not if past your ears (or eyes) the brain gets the exact same result.

Would you then say that there are no studies, because this is so "self evident"?

studies of how we perceive? yes there are studies to understand how we see. How do you think we know about cones and the rest of the stuff, or even the ratios?

But this is not what we are talking about. No one is discussing understanding the surroundings. It is the obvious that something that can't be compressed to, let's say, less then 3 mbps or even 6 mbps losslessly won't magically sound exactly the same when it is compressed to 1.5 or .5 or whatever upper limit is used in the lossy encoder. Now how often does it happen that it needs more the .5 or 1.5 or whatecver value the tech used in a lossy encoder? No one knows, no one even knows what the tech will use. The problem is anyone that wants one that sounds like the master uses the lossless encoder or a lossless encoding (assuming someone builds an encoder that can do both), and anyone that uses lossy to save space is usingf it to save space so they don’t care. They used a max of 1.5 or .5 or 640 or 440 or ….. because that is what gives them the necessary overhead room to add the rest of the stuff they want.

This is specualtion on my part, but give me your opinion.

Perhaps current DVD lines are relatively busy and most replicators would rather install a new line instead of converting an existing line? Conversion becomes more attractive when DVD volumes start to drop (we're no where close to that currently).
could be one of the reasons and could be an important one, but if a studio needs a new line for HD and the price is relatively the same between the two formats, doesn't it still mean HD DVD does not have a big advantage?

So now replicators will be looking at their options.......


yup http://www.qol.fr/index.php?idM=6

Quid du Blu-Ray ?

Nous allons produire bientôt en partenariat notre premier Blu-Ray,

what about BD?

we will soon be producing our first BD

even though the article you posted was relatively new, my guess the quote must have been old and bad. The 1M$ for new HD DVD lines sounfd right, but Cinram had said BD lines were .5M$ more.

could be one of the reasons and could be an important one, but if a studio needs a new line for HD and the price is relatively the same between the two formats, doesn't it still mean HD DVD does not have a big advantage?



yup http://www.qol.fr/index.php?idM=6



what about BD?

we will soon be producing our first BD

even though the article you posted was relatively new, my guess the quote must have been old and bad. The 1M$ for new HD DVD lines sounfd right, but Cinram had said BD lines were .5M$ more.

So in other words, a BD line only costs 50% more than an HD-DVD line, produces 1/3 the daily output of the HD-DVD line and can't be used to produce SD DVD if the replicator needs additional SD capacity. Is that right?

A couple of nice reviews on highdefdigest today.

First of all, Planet Earth which is VC1 encoded on four 30GB HD-DVD discs and 4 BD-25 discs. Both versions scored a 5/5 for PQ and 3.5/5 AQ. That's nice to see especially since Planet Earth sold well in both formats (especially HD-DVD).

Next up is Dreamgirls which scored 5/5 for PQ and 4/5 for AQ in both formats. It's VC1 on 30GB for HD-DVD and Mpeg2 on the BD-50. What is interesting is this is the first Mpeg2 BD-50 to get a perfect 5/5 PQ (there have been Mpeg2 BD-25s that have scored 5/5 PQ). One other point of interest is that the HD-DVD version is a 1.5mbps DD+ soundtrack while the BD is a 640kbps DD soundtrack.

This is the part where I wait for people to tell me that there is no way the BD could sound as good as the HD-DVD version of this movie.

So in other words, a BD line only costs 50% more than an HD-DVD line, produces 1/3 the daily output of the HD-DVD line and can't be used to produce SD DVD if the replicator needs additional SD capacity. Is that right?

no idea. my guess

50% more sounds plausible, 1/3 output, I doubt it. produce SD? yes, but don't we want them to make HD disks? not to mention wouldn't they want it? they make more on an HD disk then a SD

Yup, I heard the same ... I just didn't know if Studio Canal was releasing everything that Lionsgate did or if it was just a subset of their content. I suppose I can do some digging and see, but I was hoping someone knew the answer. ;)

Xploited Cinema (http://xploitedcinema.com) sells a lot of Canal releases and is taking pre-orders on the next batch, one of which is Mulholand Drive.

why is everyone looking to Walmart as their panacea? They ain't doing so hot themselves. Not only did they fail to enter some fairly large markets, but their experiments at differentiation and increasing margins on some products have been abysmal.

Looking at the last five years Walmart's stock is down 20% while CostCo's is up 40% and Best Buy's is up 50%.

Of course they aren't the only ones doing poorly - GoodGuys folded and CC is collapsing - neither one because WalMart sold cheap flat panels but because they are poorly run.


HD-DVD players may go on sale at WalMart, but they won't sell one bit more HD-DVD movies until the prices drop considerably. People who will buy $200 (or whatever) HD-DVD players will not buy $35, $30, or even $25 HD-DVDs when they are used to paying $8-$12 for DVD's brand new.

So unless someone has any press release that HD-DVD is about to cut it's disc prices in half to make WalMart happy (thereby removing the whole point they launched HD-DVD - to make money again), all of this is pointless.


My prediction - WalMart sells 2million HD-DVD players for $200 or less and the attachment rate for HD-DVD standalones drops to parity with the PS3.

why is everyone looking to Walmart as their panacea? They ain't doing so hot themselves. Not only did they fail to enter some fairly large markets, but their experiments at differentiation and increasing margins on some products have been abysmal.

Looking at the last five years Walmart's stock is down 20% while CostCo's is up 40% and Best Buy's is up 50%.

Of course they aren't the only ones doing poorly - GoodGuys folded and CC is collapsing - neither one because WalMart sold cheap flat panels but because they are poorly run.

HD-DVD players may go on sale at WalMart, but they won't sell one bit more HD-DVD movies until the prices drop considerably. People who will buy $200 (or whatever) HD-DVD players will not buy $35, $30, or even $25 HD-DVDs when they are used to paying $8-$12 for DVD's brand new.

So unless someone has any press release that HD-DVD is about to cut it's disc prices in half to make WalMart happy (thereby removing the whole point they launched HD-DVD - to make money again), all of this is pointless.


My prediction - WalMart sells 2million HD-DVD players for $200 or less and the attachment rate for HD-DVD standalones drops to parity with the PS3.

I don't agree with your assertion that Wal-Mart isn't an important retail force, but I do agree with your point about disc prices. For disc sales to truly take off, their prices need to come down as well. I would expect to see that as part of Wal-Marts push. Unlike some of the other retailers you mentioned, Wal-Mart is well run, and the issue of content prices will not be lost on them.

I don't agree with your assertion that Wal-Mart isn't an important retail force, but I do agree with your point about disc prices. For disc sales to truly take off, their prices need to come down as well. I would expect to see that as part of Wal-Marts push. Unlike some of the other retailers you mentioned, Wal-Mart is well run, and the issue of content prices will not be lost on them.


Even if some Walmarts folded, there are tons of them in cities not big enough to support/attract Best Buy, and Costco is not yet a nation-wide chain. They are huge, and they are cheap. Also these players will pop-up everywhere.

Do you really think Best Buy is going to turn their backs on a low-end HD player that's cheap enough that people will pick up a couple disks with it?

why is everyone looking to Walmart as their panacea? They ain't doing so hot themselves. Not only did they fail to enter some fairly large markets, but their experiments at differentiation and increasing margins on some products have been abysmal.

Looking at the last five years Walmart's stock is down 20% while CostCo's is up 40% and Best Buy's is up 50%.

Of course they aren't the only ones doing poorly - GoodGuys folded and CC is collapsing - neither one because WalMart sold cheap flat panels but because they are poorly run.


HD-DVD players may go on sale at WalMart, but they won't sell one bit more HD-DVD movies until the prices drop considerably. People who will buy $200 (or whatever) HD-DVD players will not buy $35, $30, or even $25 HD-DVDs when they are used to paying $8-$12 for DVD's brand new.

So unless someone has any press release that HD-DVD is about to cut it's disc prices in half to make WalMart happy (thereby removing the whole point they launched HD-DVD - to make money again), all of this is pointless.


My prediction - WalMart sells 2million HD-DVD players for $200 or less and the attachment rate for HD-DVD standalones drops to parity with the PS3.

I prefer Target (and Costco) to Walmart but neither is an option where I live.

And I think the point of WalMart is they sell cheaper DVD's to get folks into the store. Hopefully they will decide they also have to sell cheaper HD DVD's for the same reason. And once people are buying cheaper HD DVD's and players maybe wallyworld can also sell them some nice new displays to watch them on.

So I certainly do agree about the disc price obstacle, but hope that will get fixed. If it does not then I'd expect both formats to fail anyway. If you continue to charge early adopter prices you will continue to only sell early adopters. And those are not Walmarts targeted customers.

- Tom

I rarely come around to these forums anymore. I have both formats and they are both great.

its funny though that before people here said Blu-Ray was forcing people to adopt with the PS3, from the get go I didn't think so because I work in the gaming industry and more storage leads to a better product. and more value for the customer on the gaming side.

Now it's almost like Toshiba is forcing adoption on a cheap player and selling it at wall-mart. Are they?

will it succeed I dont' think so. because movies are still to expensive. But one never knows.

I chose not to reply because it was late and I was tired (reading your constent BS takes a lot out of a person :) ).

BS huh? I guess the smiley is supposed to make this more polite than your calling folks and their posts "stupid" previously? :rolleyes:

Yes I responded to other threads and other posts, but by the time I got to yours I did not have the time, unlike you I ma nopt paid to be here during the day and write grbadge to push an agenda.

You are making a claim I'll ask you to retract, unless you happen to know something about me and my circumstances.



obviously everything is about faking life. Do you think movement is a bunch of stillness with change every 1/24 sec? The trick is to mimic reality in such a way that your sensors give you the impression of reality. If you see a table is it producing light? no reflecting, If you look at a lampshade is the light reflected? no it is direct. If you are watching a scene of a lamp on a table on a direct view set, what is happening? the lamp is like reality the table is not, when you watch it on a projector? the table is like reality and the lamp is not. Soundwaves can be created from different ways is that important for the way we hear? Not if past your ears (or eyes) the brain gets the exact same result.

studies of how we perceive? yes there are studies to understand how we see. How do you think we know about cones and the rest of the stuff, or even the ratios?


On this we agree.

But this is not what we are talking about. No one is discussing understanding the surroundings. It is the obvious that something that can't be compressed to, let's say, less then 3 mbps or even 6 mbps losslessly won't magically sound exactly the same when it is compressed to 1.5 or .5 or whatever upper limit is used in the lossy encoder. Now how often does it happen that it needs more the .5 or 1.5 or whatecver value the tech used in a lossy encoder? No one knows, no one even knows what the tech will use. The problem is anyone that wants one that sounds like the master uses the lossless encoder or a lossless encoding (assuming someone builds an encoder that can do both), and anyone that uses lossy to save space is usingf it to save space so they don’t care. They used a max of 1.5 or .5 or 640 or 440 or ….. because that is what gives them the necessary overhead room to add the rest of the stuff they want.

On this we disagree. Nobody was claiming that lossy = lossless from a mathematical perspective. What was being asked when you said "people don't make studies about self evident stuff", is if what people PERCEIVED on the whole was markedly different given a high-enough quality encode.

Here's the rub, based on articles previously posted here, as well as the testimony of a number who have done personal tests, IT'S NOT SELF EVIDENT AT ALL that there is a perceptible difference for a majority of the population. Given that you seem strenuously opposed to this idea, you've been asked if you ever done any scientifically valid testing of this for yourself. Strangely you've never answered that question that I've seen.

Given the evidence FOR high-quality lossless being perceptually the same as actual lossless published here, and the ABSENCE of any data from you stating that you personally could even tell the difference, it's hard to not draw the conclusion that there's a little "but this one goes to 11" going on...

Looks like a firesale. They may have problems selling them.

Like the Samsung BDP1000 perhaps. ;)

I dunno, seems like the Add-Ons are selling as fast as they can make them ... I almost never see them locally ... occasionally CC has 1 ...

So in other words, a BD line only costs 50% more than an HD-DVD line, produces 1/3 the daily output of the HD-DVD line and can't be used to produce SD DVD if the replicator needs additional SD capacity. Is that right?

And since we talking about disc runs in the *thousands*, that 50% is a huge mountain to climb, imo ...

A couple of nice reviews on highdefdigest today.

First of all, Planet Earth which is VC1 encoded on four 30GB HD-DVD discs and 4 BD-25 discs. Both versions scored a 5/5 for PQ and 3.5/5 AQ. That's nice to see especially since Planet Earth sold well in both formats (especially HD-DVD).

Next up is Dreamgirls which scored 5/5 for PQ and 4/5 for AQ in both formats. It's VC1 on 30GB for HD-DVD and Mpeg2 on the BD-50. What is interesting is this is the first Mpeg2 BD-50 to get a perfect 5/5 PQ (there have been Mpeg2 BD-25s that have scored 5/5 PQ). One other point of interest is that the HD-DVD version is a 1.5mbps DD+ soundtrack while the BD is a 640kbps DD soundtrack.

This is the part where I wait for people to tell me that there is no way the BD could sound as good as the HD-DVD version of this movie.

Not only that, but the smaller capacity and inferior HD-DVD version actually had a 'better' audio encode? How could that be? :rolleyes:

no idea. my guess

50% more sounds plausible, 1/3 output, I doubt it. produce SD? yes, but don't we want them to make HD disks? not to mention wouldn't they want it? they make more on an HD disk then a SD

Several replicators have stated that the output on a BR line is less than that of an HD-DVD line. Ouput needs to be considered when we're dealing with costs I would think. While the cost per line might only be 50% delta, the cost per disc would certainly be higher if the BD line has less output per day.

I'm also not so sure that they make more on an HD disk than an SD disc. And considering the state of the market, I would think that a replicator would have less risk in adding a line that can always be used to produce a format that is selling millions of discs per week. So, even if they make .50 more on a HD Disc, they sell so much more volume of SD discs that the overall revenue streams would be night and day. :confused:

Xploited Cinema (http://xploitedcinema.com) sells a lot of Canal releases and is taking pre-orders on the next batch, one of which is Mulholand Drive.

Thank you! ;)

I don't agree with your assertion that Wal-Mart isn't an important retail force, but I do agree with your point about disc prices. For disc sales to truly take off, their prices need to come down as well. I would expect to see that as part of Wal-Marts push. Unlike some of the other retailers you mentioned, Wal-Mart is well run, and the issue of content prices will not be lost on them.

I agree ... I think they'll just subsidize the cost of the movies at worst case to get people in the store. Haven't movies and CD's always been loss leaders for Wal-Mart? You swing buy to pick up a movie ... and while you're there, you get some towels, but some floor mats for your car, perhaps a toy for your nephew's upcoming birthday party ... oh, and you need milk and eggs, might as well get those too. ;)

Even if some Walmarts folded, there are tons of them in cities not big enough to support/attract Best Buy, and Costco is not yet a nation-wide chain. They are huge, and they are cheap. Also these players will pop-up everywhere.

Do you really think Best Buy is going to turn their backs on a low-end HD player that's cheap enough that people will pick up a couple disks with it?

I imagine costco will start carrying them too. Besides, Wal-Mart has a market cap of over 200 Billion, and is pulling yoy quarterly growth of like 11% ... they don't seem like a company in 'dire straits' to me. Sure, markets change, and companies react. That's all. I know around here they just keep building those Super Wal-Marts. I only wish they had one closer to me so I wouldn't have to go so far for my HD-DVD movies. :lol:

BTW, Ken Katuragi is retiring from an executive position at Sony. I guess PS3's "success" claims its first victim ...

Originally posted by mikemorel in the news thread

http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/release/pdf/070426e.pdf

Mr. Kutaragi, well known as the “Father of PlayStation”, invented and launched the
original PlayStation in 1994 and its successor, PlayStation 2, in 2000. Since the
introduction of PlayStation and subsequently PlayStation 2, these platforms opened up a
vast market of computer entertainment. The two platforms combined now have an
installed base of more than 200 million units in homes around the world, with more than
2 billion units of PlayStation and PlayStation 2 software titles shipped worldwide. The
third generation of the company’s home computer entertainment system,
PLAYSTATION®3, launched in November 2006 in Japan and North America and in
March 2007 in Europe, will continue to revolutionize the computer entertainment
experience with its immense computational power connected to the network.
After completing the launch of PLAYSTATION 3 worldwide, Mr. Kutaragi has decided
to pursue his dreams beyond PlayStation and to accelerate his network vision.
“I am happy to graduate from Sony Computer Entertainment Inc. after introducing four
platforms to the PlayStation family,” said Ken Kutaragi, Chairman and Group CEO,
Sony Computer Entertainment Inc. “It has been an exciting experience to change the
world of computer entertainment by marrying cutting edge technologies with creative
minds from all over the world. I’m looking forward to building on this vision in my
next endeavors.”

That's the first head to roll, but I'm still looking for Howard Stringers. I can't imagine him surviving after the numerous failures that have happened during his leadership of the organization.

I think it's true that disk sales have to come down in price for people to lean toward either format. Really, why should people be excited to pay $25 plus for movies they own on DVD unless they are ones they are head-over-heels about?

I'm used to paying $20-$25 online, which isn't a lot more than DVDs go for in retail stores, but retail pricing on HDM is ghastly. I don't see how Best Buy sells disk one anymore.

HD doesn't suddenly transform a mediocre movie into a masterpiece.

I guess PS3's "success" claims its first victim ...

The 360 is next on the list, after HDDVD. ;)

Not only that, but the smaller capacity and inferior HD-DVD version actually had a 'better' audio encode? How could that be? :rolleyes:

Queue Roger Dressler's comments that DD+ at anything greater than 640 isn't necessary unless you're going beyond 6 channels... :whistles: :p

Actually, since they have been hacked I worry about them being revoked. But at this price I'll gamble.

- Tom

well if you are the unethical type- get them before they become modified to be compliant... from the reports of the hack on the drive it sounds like it'd basically be impossible to revoke anyway (if you don't mind the soldering of the FW chip anyway).

The 360 is next on the list, after HDDVD. ;)

Sure. Afterall you want to spin every bad thing that happens in BD camp as a bad thing that will somhow happen in MS :p

Queue Roger Dressler's comments that DD+ at anything greater than 640 isn't necessary unless you're going beyond 6 channels... :whistles: :p

I don't have a problem with that. I think you should take this up with Anthony though as I know he doesn't agree.

well if you are the unethical type- get them before they become modified to be compliant... from the reports of the hack on the drive it sounds like it'd basically be impossible to revoke anyway (if you don't mind the soldering of the FW chip anyway).

I'm about as ethical as the next guy, not particularly more. But I guess my chance to be an HD DVD owner has passed for this month. The drives were not even on the shelves, or listed. Even after I had the manager find a half dozen or so in the lock-up he said they were $189. And even after I convinced him to look it up he said $169.

I'll continue waiting since these are expected to drop.

- Tom

The drives were not even on the shelves, or listed. Even after I had the manager find a half dozen or so in the lock-up he said they were $189. And even after I convinced him to look it up he said $169.Do businesses normally have a habit of hiding merchandise that is selling well?

In the "Who's got a bigger selection of titles" category. HD-DVD now shows more titles that can ship today and more titles that can be ordered today.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/index.cfm

Didn't Talk have some signature about BD permanently passing HD-DVD in available titles some time ago?

I think it's true that disk sales have to come down in price for people to lean toward either format. Really, why should people be excited to pay $25 plus for movies they own on DVD unless they are ones they are head-over-heels about?

I'm used to paying $20-$25 online, which isn't a lot more than DVDs go for in retail stores, but retail pricing on HDM is ghastly. I don't see how Best Buy sells disk one anymore.

HD doesn't suddenly transform a mediocre movie into a masterpiece.



I think that a price drop on catalog titles is highly likely once both sides think they are done soaking the early adopter. The studios will be happy to have yet another crack at each movie.

However, for new titles, there is no way they will ever lower the price to parity with DVD - that would remove the whole point of launching these formats. If HD-DVD and BluRay did not exist then anybody (99% anyway) of people collecting HD movies would be collecting the DVD's instead. The net gain for the studios would be zero.



As far as Walmart and their influence - I do think it is interesting that they are shopping around for vendors to make them the players. I also think that since the one vendor was dumb enough to put out a press release about the contact before a contract was signed Walmart will keep on looking.

I also think that since the one vendor was dumb enough to put out a press release about the contact before a contract was signed Walmart will keep on looking.Maybe. But maybe WM would like to benefit from that nice new factory all tooled up to build a low cost player -- otherwise someone else may end up selling players sourced at that factory and cut into WM market share. Word is out that Fuh Yuan wants to source low cost players. :D

In the "Who's got a bigger selection of titles" category. HD-DVD now shows more titles that can ship today and more titles that can be ordered today.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/index.cfm

Didn't Talk have some signature about BD permanently passing HD-DVD in available titles some time ago?Do you believe that HD DVD added over 100 titles just in the last 2 days? I don't know what happened there, but seems pretty strange that 2 days ago there were about 200 HD DVDs that could ship and now they show 311. The Blu-ray side went up some, but not like that. I wonder what happened. Their data has gotten messed up for other things at times.

--Darin

Do businesses normally have a habit of hiding merchandise that is selling well?

I needed some weights so I went to my local Walmart, and they had no HD anything other than TVs an a handful of 360 HD DVD drives (locked up with the games). They had PSP, PS2, and XBOX, no Wii and no PS3 and no HDM of any kind.

In the "Who's got a bigger selection of titles" category. HD-DVD now shows more titles that can ship today and more titles that can be ordered today.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/index.cfm2Channel, no offense but weren't you even a little bit suspicious about that change considering that no major list of title announcements have been recently released for either HD format? I mean suddenly anywhere from 50 to 110 titles are added to these lists and you didn't even think of double checking to see if it might just be a mistake? From what I have seen the eproductwars website is simply mistaken and when you click on the list of titles you will see duplicates of the same titles repeated at the bottom of each list that have a sales rank of 100000.

Forum Question,

I get the idea of the "ignore list," which has helped me weed through prevalent thread-crappers.

So what's the point of the "Buddy List" function on this forum? I woulda thought it aids you in finding the posts of the contributers who's post you value, but it doesn't really seem to do anything?

However, for new titles, there is no way they will ever lower the price to parity with DVD - that would remove the whole point of launching these formats.

Actually, the point was to sell you the movies again that you already bought on dvd and vhs. Eventually, the price will come down once mass adoption occurs. More than a year and a half after dvd launched new release prices were about $25. That's in line with HD releases today.

2Channel, no offense but weren't you even a little bit suspicious about that change considering that no major list of title announcements have been recently released for either HD format?

Actually, there was a large wave of HD DVDs announced recently going from April to the end of June.

Actually, there was a large wave of HD DVDs announced recently going from April to the end of June.Most of those were announced over a month ago and had long ago been added to the eproductwars website. Once again the eproductwars website is simply mistaken at the moment and when you click on the list of titles you will see duplicates of the same titles repeated at the bottom of each list that have a sales rank of 100000.

Do you believe that HD DVD added over 100 titles just in the last 2 days? I don't know what happened there, but seems pretty strange that 2 days ago there were about 200 HD DVDs that could ship and now they show 311. The Blu-ray side went up some, but not like that. I wonder what happened. Their data has gotten messed up for other things at times.

--Darin


It could be that Amazon wasn't stocking the full library of each product?

Not sure as I don't know what movies they were stocking before. If it was the whole library of each format or just a smaller selection.

In the "Who's got a bigger selection of titles" category. HD-DVD now shows more titles that can ship today and more titles that can be ordered today.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/index.cfm

Didn't Talk have some signature about BD permanently passing HD-DVD in available titles some time ago?
That page is also indicating that the average Amazon.com price for Blu-ray is $5.50, so either they're having problems, or it's time to go order a boatload of titles.

Forum Question,

I get the idea of the "ignore list," which has helped me weed through prevalent thread-crappers.

So what's the point of the "Buddy List" function on this forum? I woulda thought it aids you in finding the posts of the contributers who's post you value, but it doesn't really seem to do anything?

Unfortunately, the ignore list doesn't work for responses that are quotes of a post by an ignored user . . . which means I still have to see, weed through, and grit my teeth over stupid comments from people I'm trying to ignore.

2Channel, no offense but weren't you even a little bit suspicious about that change considering that no major list of title announcements have been recently released for either HD format? I mean suddenly anywhere from 50 to 110 titles are added to these lists and you didn't even think of double checking to see if it might just be a mistake? From what I have seen the eproductwars website is simply mistaken and when you click on the list of titles you will see duplicates of the same titles repeated at the bottom of each list that have a sales rank of 100000.

Richard, I apologize for the bad information. When I posted last night I didn't see any duplicates on the site. Today, the site has been all over the map, and the last time I looked, the numbers are still moving all around.

Unfortunately, the ignore list doesn't work for responses that are quotes of a post by an ignored user . . . which means I still have to see, weed through, and grit my teeth over stupid comments from people I'm trying to ignore.
If the Mods posted the # of ignores per poster, it might clean up this board :)

PS3 fall guy
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6437705.html

He is enough of an engineer to have known that including a Blu-ray drive would significantly increase the cost of PS3 consoles, putting PlayStation at a competitive disadvantage to the Xbox 360.

The competitive disadvantage only became more acute when Nintendo’s Wii console proved an unexpected hit on the strength of its innovative controller and its low price.

Had the strategy worked, of course, and the marriage of Blu-ray and PS3 proved a competitive advantage for both, Kutaragi might have emerged as twice the hero he already was, responsible for the triumph of Sony’s two most important strategic initiatives of the past decade: PlayStation and Blu-ray Disc.

A good retrospective

Farewell, Father - Charting the rise and fall of Ken Kutaragi.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=24620



The rocketing growth of SCEI had slowed down, which was to be expected after such an astonishing decade, but moreover, there was trouble brewing for the division - both outside and in. On the outside, Sony was facing growing criticism over the PlayStation 3 - which was delayed, and moreover, vastly expensive. On the inside, it's widely rumoured that Kutaragi had disguised the truly enormous costs of the PS3 research and development effort from Sony's board.

Nothing is certain about this, and details are scarce, but it's certainly true that as head of the consumer electronics and semiconductor divisions, he would have been in a position to use some of their budgets - rather than SCEIs - on the development of the console. When he left those roles, the true extent of the cost of the PS3 would have been revealed to his successor - leaving Sony keenly aware at last of just how much Kutaragi, who had spent $2.5 billion to launch the PS2, had staked on the success of PS3.




The press crucified Kutaragi for that and many other slip-ups - and it rapidly became clear that within Sony, the Father of PlayStation was no longer loved as the family's patriarch. One very senior Sony Computer Entertainment figure, speaking off the record late last year, commented that Kutaragi "only opens his mouth to change feet". With the battle for hearts and minds slipping away from Sony, the brilliant engineer who had created the firm's games division in the first place became a public embarrassment - while in private, executives fumed at his handling of the PS3's development and launch.

It was no real surprise, then, when at the end of last November, Kutaragi's descent continued. He was replaced as president of SCEI by former SCEA boss Kaz Hirai, although he was promoted to Chairman in the same move. Still, it was clear to everyone that this was no happy promotion - and nor was it the end of Sony's retribution for Kutaragi's mistakes.

On April 26th 2007, Sony announced that Kutaragi was to retire. Like his mentor, Ohga, his retirement will see him taking on the role of Honorary Chairman - a non-executive role which is, in essence, a desk at the window with no real work to do. Kaz Hirai will take on his role as CEO, reporting to Sony's group CEO Howard Stringer.

At 56 years of age, for someone to retire from a senior role like Ken Kutaragi's is almost unheard of in Japan. His removal from the top spot in SCEI is not a voluntary one; it is both a punishment for his own failures with regard to the PS3, and, by extension, an offering to shareholders angry at the losses sustained by the firm in the development of the console, and the negative press surrounding it. His head has rolled - perhaps pre-empting changes such as a price cut, perhaps merely as an act of contrition for past failures. Whichever is true, the Father of PlayStation has been put out to pasture.

I can only say that it's humorous that anyone would believe HD-DVD suddenly added over 100 new titles and BD suddenly added over 40 titles. Has common sense died?

If the Mods posted the # of ignores per poster, it might clean up this board :)
THAT's the best idea i've heard on here in a long time! can they do it?

BS huh? I guess the smiley is supposed to make this more polite than your calling folks and their posts "stupid" previously?

Steve: no, it means it is a joke, the I was tired was true but mostly because it was late

On this we disagree. Nobody was claiming that lossy = lossless from a mathematical perspective. What was being asked when you said "people don't make studies about self evident stuff", is if what people PERCEIVED on the whole was markedly different given a high-enough quality encode.

I don't know what markedly different means, it can't make a bad line good :) but I did not say mathimatically. That is for example whjy NO ONE, not Amir, Not Universal, not anyone has said there is no sonic/audible ...... call it what you want difference and has always talked about deminishing returns. (to translate-- we decided to add X and we could not add lossless as well so we did not)

Here's the rub, based on articles previously posted here, as well as the testimony of a number who have done personal tests, IT'S NOT SELF EVIDENT AT ALL that there is a perceptible difference for a majority of the population. Given that you seem strenuously opposed to this idea, you've been asked if you ever done any scientifically valid testing of this for yourself. Strangely you've never answered that question that I've seen.
what article? the one were some idiots said they heard the difference between CD and MP3 but they did not care? the one where one guy said he liked the messed up one better?

Given the evidence FOR high-quality lossless being perceptually the same as actual lossless published here, and the ABSENCE of any data from you stating that you personally could even tell the difference, it's hard to not draw the conclusion that there's a little "but this one goes to 11" going on...

show me the articlke where people compared DD+ and DTHD and they could not tell the difference.


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