Just interested in knowing how the various people here will "know" the format war is effectively over. Key word in that sentence is effectively. There have been many a format that have stuck around longer than their expiration date (Beta, UMD to name a few -- sorry to pick on Sony, but no other formats came to mind, I'm sure there are quite a few).

I chose the retailer option because the retailers are the weathervanes of the market. If something isn't selling well, brick and mortar locations are going to be the first ones to notice and adjust available shelf space. The others aren't as crippling as far as drawbacks for either side, but losing the support of the sales channels spells doom for any product IMO.

I'll know it's over when Warner goes neutral

You meant Universal ?

I voted until VOD (or something else) comes along.

J6P won't be enough of a factor to end the "war" and that is what is needed.

You meant Universal ?

Yeah, that too. ;)

You meant Universal ?

Yeah, sorry . . . brain cramp. Need . . . more . . . coffee . . . .

My view is when pirates start making whichever format which means that format wins. :D

HD DVD is already under $200 with a 6 month lead :D

When the mods collapse the BD and HD topic areas together

The spin is dizzying.

For me, size matters. More disc space = more options and less compression. HD-DVD could have a 1 year lead and cost $99 but if there's another format that can offer improved video quality, audio quality, content extras, amount of studio support or storage capacity, they can keep HD-DVD.

Besides, my PS3 will play cutting-edge games in addition to being a premium HD content player.

While I "voted" for the 6:1 sales margin, I really don't think it will take that much. A sustained 4:1 margin for 4-6 months is a good indication. That's a 80%/20% split and if HD-DVD gets down to 20% of the market it's only a matter of time before the studios will abandon producing titles for the 20% of the people who own the losing format.

To keep one format on "life support" by the studios just isn't in their best interests. I also think that Paramount will be the first studio to abandon HD-DVD in early 2008.

b2b

HD DVD is already under $200 with a 6 month lead :D

HD DVD can be $50 and Blu-ray would still be leading it judging by the Feb 07 standalone hardware sales. This entire thing is about movies. If the movies you want to watch are on the "other" format, then that's really it, isn't it?

None of the above. It's over when universal players are the dominant high def players.

It's over when Warner goes neutral..... which is now.

I thought the war was already over...HD DVD is obsolete.

I thought the war was already over...HD DVD is obsolete.
:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Actually, if think when buying movies doesn't suck again.

The spin is dizzying.

For me, size matters. More disc space = more options and less compression. HD-DVD could have a 1 year lead and cost $99 but if there's another format that can offer improved video quality, audio quality, content extras, amount of studio support or storage capacity, they can keep HD-DVD.

Besides, my PS3 will play cutting-edge games in addition to being a premium HD content player.

lord, the space argument again. :confused:

Where's the option that says it's over when Sony says it's over? I mean, they said it didn't start until:

THEY said it started
BD players came out
BD players other than Samsung came out
BD DL 50 discs came out
the PS3 came out
Profile 1.1 comes out

Ahhh...forget trying to figure out when it's over...has it officially started yet for BD?

The spin is dizzying.

For me, size matters. More disc space = more options and less compression. HD-DVD could have a 1 year lead and cost $99 but if there's another format that can offer improved video quality, audio quality, content extras, amount of studio support or storage capacity, they can keep HD-DVD.



The spin is dizzying, indeed. We're still waiting for a title, any title, to show that the extra space has provided a tangibly better PQ/AQ. Or more extras for that matter. Or any non-kludged PiP interactivity. Still waiting...

Worst...poll...ever....

I'll know the "war" is over when I can buy any movie I want in HD in one format.

I'll know the "war" is over when I can buy any movie I want in HD in one format.


and studio neutrality would prevent this how? Would fill in the blank be less enjoyable knowing it's running around on another format?

I will know the war is over when there are no more threads about when it going to be over.

The spin is dizzying, indeed. We're still waiting for a title, any title, to show that the extra space has provided a tangibly better PQ/AQ. Or more extras for that matter. Or any non-kludged PiP interactivity. Still waiting...

That's like saying the BMW M5's extra horsepower doesn't really matter unless you mash the pedal to the floor every time you drive it. Like horsepower, it's there when you need it. When enterprising Directors and studios want the space for something, they'll have it.

I don't have to wait for anything. I'll take a title with uncompressed PCM audio over one that uses compression.

Still own any DVDs from the first year they made them? How are those looking now compared to the newest releases?

Patience Grasshopper.

I'll take a title with uncompressed PCM audio over one with.




No further questions.

when the first wave of HD DVD fanboys that have HD DVD BD counts on their signature realize that the BD count has surpassed the HD DVD.

And when the second (and subsequent) waves start realizing. “Why have all these people that conned me into wasting my mony on HD DVD with "content/studios don’t matter" all have BD players to watch movies I can’t”

Actually my vote was Warner going neutral

When both formats become footnotes of S/V history.

Hd-dvd fanboys mocking blu-ray & gloating about how much better it is
War heating up

Hd-dvd fanboys backpedaling & saying how the "war" will last longer than you think. Blu-ray fanboys start gloating the same way the hd-dvd fanboys were. Some hd-dvd owners goes format neutral.
Tide of war turns.

Universal goes neutral, hd-dvd fanboys quietly drop out of the hd-dvd vs blu-ray threads & buys blu-ray players. Blu-ray fanboys lose interest and look for something else to "battle" about.
War over

I chose the niche option because that is what both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are and will continue to be for awhile. Probably for so long that by the time mass-market is ready for them, something new and better will be available and we will all be posting about how these formats are so poor we don't know how we lived with them.

Some telling survey responses here, I think. For all of the debate about what will end this war, the survey results really are quite pragmatic.

->27% say the war will be over when one format is outselling the other by [insert ratio here] at significant monthly sales volumes
->another 24% claiming the war will be over when retailers carry mostly one format
->and another 17%-18% think the war will be relegated to the back seat (to DVD)

So far, for all the bluster I've been reading, all the posturing, all the technical battles, all the strategy discussion, all the content discussions . . . . with all those reasons, more than half of the people who voted (51%) won't believe the format war is really over until they see media sales at a significant volume and significantly in favor of a particular format (the retailer question is probably a sub-set of the ratio/volume question).

I think that is pretty telling. I'm sure that a lot of BR fans are probably thinking: "Yeah, look at what BR has done over the last couple of months!" As much as I don't like the idea of Sony being on the winning side, it is certainly hard to ignore BR media sales as of late. Like many situations in life, however, we can often remove ourselves from the fray by making analogies. One framework I use often is sports.

HD-DVD got the opening tip and got out to an early lead in the metaphorical first quarter . . . BR "woke up", cut into the lead, and now has a narrow lead. BR has a deep bench, and players who have a lot of potential. But to assume that just because the ebb and flow of the game currently favors the BR team that the game is over (here in the 2nd quarter, we're not even really at half time), is a mistake (just as thinking that HD-DVD winning early meant that they'd win the game was a mistake . . . sure it could have snow-balled into a huge lead that BR couldn't have cut into, but it didn't). The fans for each team take every sign that victory CAN happen as a sign that it WILL happen . . . which doesn't work out so well in reality. While the "better team" often wins . . . look no further than the NCAA basketball tournament for proof that the underdog can and does win unexpectedly. Winning seldom boils down to who has the better players or better game plan . . . winning usually boils down to execution. There's a reason why we play the game people.

I can't wait for the 3rd and 4th quarters . . . . should be a good game. Hopefully it's not a blow out, because I believe that (in the short run) having a competitive game benefits me in the form of a highly competitive hardware market.

When Amir no longer posts.

How about, I'll know it's over when they stop having new releases for one format.

How about, I'll know it's over when they stop having new releases for one format.

Certainly that would be a definative end and impossible (at that point) to argue that a particular format "still had life", however, I suspect that it will be effectively over long before new releases stop. For example, UMD was dead before new releases stopped. SACD still has new releases (I believe), same with DVD-A -- and while neither are "dead" per se, neither is challenging CD audio for format supremacy (i.e., the "battle" to be the next audio format is over, and CD-A won). Same could be said of Beta -- releases continued long after pretty much everyone was buying VHS. I think in this particular format war, given Sony's particpation (and ownership of studio content) the "new release" criteria will be even less meaningful, especially if BRD loses (not saying THAT will happen, just being hypothetical). I can see Sony continuing to release Sony Pictures content for years after a hypothetical BRD format collapse (again . . . not saying this will happen). I think Sony actually tried to do something like this as Beta was collapsing, IIRC. On the other hand, if HD-DVD loses, then I would imagine new releases would stop sooner. In either case, while new releases stopping is the coup de grace for the format in question, either format will likely be "dead in the water" long before that point.

I'll know it when I buy only discs for one format ;-)

What is the point of this thread, didn't Sony and Fox already say that the war is over?

What is the point of this thread, didn't Sony and Fox already say that the war is over?

Yeah 3 times already . . . :)

Out today – Casino Royale on Blu-Ray

New on HD-DVD today is...wait...what's that sound? I think I hear crickets off in the distance.

:p

HD DVD is already under $200 with a 6 month lead :D
And yet blu-ray is outselling hd-dvd more than 2:1 in 2007 (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=798272).

hd-dvd is going to need to pay people to use their players to win this war.

Seriously? Can you point me to a current stand-alone HD-DVD player that outputs 1080p for less than $200 selling price (with no fuzzy math, such as "well, you get three discs for free so . . . "). If you can, I'll buy it. No a Xbox add-on drive doesn't count because: 1) I don't own an Xbox, and 2) if I did, while I might utilize it as my HD-DVD device for a while, it would not be an acceptable part of my home theater set up.

And yet blu-ray is outselling hd-dvd more than 2:1 in 2007 (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=798272).

hd-dvd is going to need to pay people to use their players to win this war.

In all seriousness, HD-DVD has what, anywhere from 1/3 to 1/4 the number of BR "players" out there, and BR is "only" outselling HD-DVD at 2:1. While this is certainly not a bad thing for BR, I'm not sure it is the slam dunk most of those in the BR camp think it is. If we reach the end of 2007 and the annualized data for BR is 2:1 and BR stand-alone players are significantly outpacing stand-alone HD-DVD players, then I'd say BR is indeed "winning".

I find it amusing that one of the poll answers mentions Walmart.

I went to Walmart on Monday and asked if they had any Blu-ray movies. The clerk answered, "What's Blu-ray?".

:rolleyes:

The spin is dizzying.

For me, size matters. More disc space = more options and less compression. HD-DVD could have a 1 year lead and cost $99 but if there's another format that can offer improved video quality, audio quality, content extras, amount of studio support or storage capacity, they can keep HD-DVD.

Besides, my PS3 will play cutting-edge games in addition to being a premium HD content player.

Your PS3 hasn't proven that it has any cutting edge exclusive games to play, and likely won't.

And if size means better picture, when is BD going to prove that? So far their releases are far spottier than HD DVD. And your theory that BD's small size advantage must mean it can do better encodes is going to be really tough now that a single layer HD DVD (happy feet) got a 5 star PQ review.

I voted for the second option. Neither format is going anywhere because this is simply Laserdisc2. The only difference being that when cost comes down enough, DVD players will incorporate the ability to play both formats because the form-factor of the discs is the same.

In all seriousness, HD-DVD has what, anywhere from 1/3 to 1/4 the number of BR "players" out there, and BR is "only" outselling HD-DVD at 2:1. While this is certainly not a bad thing for BR, I'm not sure it is the slam dunk most of those in the BR camp think it is. If we reach the end of 2007 and the annualized data for BR is 2:1 and BR stand-alone players are significantly outpacing stand-alone HD-DVD players, then I'd say BR is indeed "winning".

I dunno, if you remove the PS3 factor, those numbers are nearly reversed.

Talking just about standalone players, there is a reason HD DVD has a number 3 right now on Amazon's DVD player list. While BD is in the 30's or 40's.

It's certainly not safe to say every PS3 is going to be used to play BD movies.

I'll know it's over when 1 format is outselling the other 6:1 with >1 million discs/month in volume

I'd go with this. But it needs to happen for 6 months to a year, continuously.

Seriously? Can you point me to a current stand-alone HD-DVD player that outputs 1080p for less than $200 selling price (with no fuzzy math, such as "well, you get three discs for free so . . . "). If you can, I'll buy it. No a Xbox add-on drive doesn't count because: 1) I don't own an Xbox, and 2) if I did, while I might utilize it as my HD-DVD device for a while, it would not be an acceptable part of my home theater set up.
Having 1080p output and lossless audio are only important to the very few videophiles on this forum and elsewhere, and don't mean a thing to the general public that will decide this war. Getting a really cheap player that does 1080i and sounds good through TV speakers is going to be good enough for the vast majority. As technology improves even the cheap TVs may do inverse telecine and some day even the cheap players will output 1080p. Those of us on this forum that want the higher end electronics sound like elitests when trying to explain to the general public why they should want the same thing. Neither format is going away any time soon no matter how much wishfull thinking there is from the Blu-ray fanatics. The longer HD DVD hangs around, the worse it is for Blu-ray, because HD DVD will be able to sell the cheaper players sooner. As far as studio support, the general public doesn't have a clue about which movies he can or can't buy now. Even Disney projects 2.5 million HD DVD players out there by the end of the year and you could probably extrapolate that to over 5 million in two years. With those numbers there is no way that HD DVD will die. Every HD DVD player(even the add-on) is used to watch HD DVDs, while the PS3 is THE Blu-ray player--sometimes.

When WB goes neutral and gives BD it's lossless audio that it rightly deserves.

Talking just about standalone players, there is a reason HD DVD has a number 3 right now on Amazon's DVD player list. While BD is in the 30's or 40's.
I'm sorry, what player are you referring to here?

At the time of this posting the Toshiba HD-A2 is rank #125.
At the time of this posting the Toshiba HD-XA2 is rank #426.

Not that the Blu-ray players are doing better - they're all in the 1000s. But I'm curious where you're #3 ranking statement comes from.

It's over already...it's just going to take another year for the dust to settle. Once Blu Ray started outselling HD DVD, the game was done. No, I don't own either format. I'll probably buy in around Christmas, when the java issue is sorted out.

Walt

I'm sorry, what player are you referring to here?

At the time of this posting the Toshiba HD-A2 is rank #125.
At the time of this posting the Toshiba HD-XA2 is rank #426.

Not that the Blu-ray players are doing better - they're all in the 1000s. But I'm curious where you're #3 ranking statement comes from.

I was looking here. (http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/172514/ref=pd_ts_e_nav/102-6425742-3852152?ie=UTF8&pf%5Frd%5Ft=2101&pf%5Frd%5Fm=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf%5Frd%5Fp=221591101&pf%5Frd%5Fs=left-1&pf%5Frd%5Fr=1Z3N5RXAV5FHCZFDCBGH&pf%5Frd%5Fi=51549011) Was at 3 last night. At 5 and 13 now.

The more I read on this forum, the more I'm convinced of a stalemate -- which kinda' pisses me off. I'd prefer to have a winner, but I just don't see it, mostly because I think price is (and is going to continue to be) an issue for mass-adoption, and HD-DVD holds (apparently) a significant advantage there. The only hope for a single format is for BR to knock HD DVD out in the early rounds (i.e., by the end of this year), but I don't see that happening either, mostly because Toshiba and M/S seem to have enough skin in this game to stick it out . . . even if their vested interest is to see Sony bleed $$$.

Here's to hoping that dual format players make it out soon . . . 'cause that's the only thing I'll buy if this thing continues past December of 2007.

I'm sorry, what player are you referring to here?

At the time of this posting the Toshiba HD-A2 is rank #125.
At the time of this posting the Toshiba HD-XA2 is rank #426.

Not that the Blu-ray players are doing better - they're all in the 1000s. But I'm curious where you're #3 ranking statement comes from.

You are looking at ranking within electronics ... the low numbers are for DVD players only. Very impressive.

You are looking at ranking within electronics ... the low numbers are for DVD players only. Very impressive.From looking at stock numbers it looks like Amazon just doesn't sell many DVD players. If the A2 stock numbers are right then Amazon is selling these HD-A2s at a clip of less than 30 per day average (closer to 20), or less than 900 per month. I don't consider that all that impressive. By comparison, a title like "Children of Men" is probably doing more than 2 hundred copies a day for at least a couple of days here. The Blu-ray players do look like they are selling much worse (not counting the PS3) than the HD DVD players on there though.

--Darin

From looking at stock numbers it looks like Amazon just doesn't sell many DVD players. If the A2 stock numbers are right then Amazon is selling these HD-A2s at a clip of less than 30 per day average (closer to 20), or less than 900 per month. I don't consider that all that impressive.

Numbers may not be impressive but the rank surely is. Afterall if we had a HD DVD movie consistently in the top 5 rank, that would be impressive.

If you see DVD sales overall - 19M DVD players sold in '06 against more than 1B DVDs. So, you do expect a smaller # of players than movies - though it should be higher in the case of HiDef since the installed base is so small.