EDIT: I accidently put 2008 at first, when this is meant to be for just 3 months from now. If anybody voted based on it being next year and wants to change their vote, they can mention it in a post.

This is basically an offshoot of Sketcha's poll about sales by the end of 2007 (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=817298), but this one is for closer in time and is about runrate, not Since Inception numbers.

Basically, the question is which side you think will have more software sales in June of 2007 (or as close as we can get) by Videoscan numbers and what percentage of total sales you think they will have. I figure nataraj and Icemage can use the equations they've been using so far to estimate how many discs each side sells each week and hopefully they can agree on the winner based on the data we get. Since the data we get is for weeks ending on Sundays and June 3rd is a Sunday, this is for the weeks comprising June 4th to July 1st. So, the data that will be used will be the Videoscan data from these weeks:

- Week ending June 10th.
- Week ending June 17th.
- Week ending June 24th.
- Week ending July 1st.

and sales will be totaled according to what nataraj and Icemage calculate (assuming they are fine with doing this) and then the percentage for each side will be determined.

Just to be clear, this is about the discs for the video format, not game discs, just like the Videoscan numbers don't include game disc sales.

BTW: The poll is public and closes on April 1st.

--Darin

In case anybody wants to see current numbers and how this would be done, if this was for February I would take nataraj's chart from here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9990477&&#post9990477

http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/6553/nielsenhideffu0.gif (http://imageshack.us)

then total disc sales for the weeks ending February 11th to March 4th to get 209,378 for Blu-ray and 102,867 for HD DVD. That works out to 312,245 total, which is 67.1% for Blu-ray (if I added them correctly).

--Darin

My projection shows the weekly sales %s by week in my calculations, so if you want the modeled numbers, here they are as of 3/4/07.

http://www.endrop.com/album/photos/4ewzrqwzwui3i2wzoywy.jpg (http://www.endrop.com/viewer.php?file=4ewzrqwzwui3i2wzoywy.jpg)

Since January 28th, the ratio has been somewhere in the vicinity of 65-70% Blu-ray and 30-35% HD DVD pretty consistently, based on weekly sales units per VideoScan.

darin do you mean June 2007?

darin do you mean June 2007?Shoot. Just not thinking. I can change it, but maybe people thought this was for 15 months from now when I meant it to be closer. Thanks for pointing that out. I'm not sure if the title can be changed, but I'll change the rest. Hopefully a mod can change the title and poll question to 2007.

--Darin

Is this supposed to be sales world wide, or U.S. only, or N.A.?

Is this supposed to be sales world wide, or U.S. only, or N.A.?This is for the Videoscan numbers we've been getting, which I believe are US only.

--Darin

Shoot. Just not thinking. I can change it, but maybe people thought this was for 15 months from now when I meant it to be closer. Thanks for pointing that out. I'm not sure if the title can be changed, but I'll change the rest. Hopefully a mod can change the title and poll question to 2007.With that in mind, my vote was for 2008. :P For 2007, I think I'd probably have voted "60% to 69.9% for Blu-ray" (though in all honesty I think it'll actually be somewhere between 65% to 74.9%).

you should report the post and ask a mod to change it

I see that I forgot to vote in my own poll here.

So far it looks like the "60% to 69.9% for Blu-ray" has the most chance of winning to me, although the week ending July 1st could go HD DVD's way by enough to swing things down under 59.9% given the desparity of releases toward HD DVD that week. For the first 2 weeks that relate to this poll the data is (Blu-ray with the higher percentage):

06/10 66/34
06/17 64/36

--Darin

It's going to be the same it always has been. BD over HD DVD 60-40 (at best). or 70-30 (at worst.