I have heard the argument from several different articles today that retail floor space will play a major role in this format war. Today hidefdigest.com listed the following article:

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Industry_Forecasts_(42_posts)/Disc_Sales/Disc_Sales:_Casino_Royale_Blu-ray_Overall_Top_Seller_in_March_Departed_Leads_HD_DVD_Pack/584

http://www.tvpredictions.com/bluraysales042007.htm

Essentially it recaps the Neilson data through the first half of April. It then goes on to talk to Universal's Ken Graffeo saying he expects Blu-ray to lead in sales for the majority of 2007, but to look for a strong 4th quarter for HD-DVD. The article then quotes Sony's David Bishop and Bishop says "We think retailers will start to dedicate more space to Blu-ray, rather than split it half and half. That will further send a signal to consumers that it is the dominant format."

1. How much of a role will retail floor space play in the eventual outcome of this format war?

2. Has anyone noticed any shifting of floor space in their local B&M stores to show a preference to one format of another?

3. Is HD-DVD's Graffeo miscalculating in waiting until the 4th Quarter to attempt a comeback?

~Josh

...

3. Is HD-DVD's Graffeo miscalculating in waiting until the 4th Quarter to attempt a comeback?

~Josh

I think he nows about upcoming cheap HD DVD players. :rolleyes:

I have heard the argument from several different articles today that retail floor space will play a major role in this format war. Today hidefdigest.com listed the following article:

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Industry_Forecasts_(42_posts)/Disc_Sales/Disc_Sales:_Casino_Royale_Blu-ray_Overall_Top_Seller_in_March_Departed_Leads_HD_DVD_Pack/584

http://www.tvpredictions.com/bluraysales042007.htm

Essentially it recaps the Neilson data through the first half of April. It then goes on to talk to Universal's Ken Graffeo saying he expects Blu-ray to lead in sales for the majority of 2007, but to look for a strong 4th quarter for HD-DVD. The article then quotes Sony's David Bishop and Bishop says "We think retailers will start to dedicate more space to Blu-ray, rather than split it half and half. That will further send a signal to consumers that it is the dominant format."

1. How much of a role will retail floor space play in the eventual outcome of this format war?

2. Has anyone noticed any shifting of floor space in their local B&M stores to show a preference to one format of another?

3. Is HD-DVD's Graffeo miscalculating in waiting until the 4th Quarter to attempt a comeback?

~Josh

1. Retail floor space has already played a significant role in HD marketing since
both formats became available.

2. Several previous posts in numerous threads have borne this out. In my experience at b&m stores, Mr. Bishop's statement that space has been divided "half and half" is wrong; most space is going to BluRay.

3. Can't answer that.

I think he nows about upcoming cheap HD DVD players. :rolleyes:

What I mean is if Graffeo/HD-DVD wait until the 4th quarter to make their major charge, could valuable retail floor space not be available?

~Josh

I have said it before and I will say it again. Not enough machines have been sold for anyone to be too late to anything. Should Wal Mart stock the upcoming chinese HD-DVD players they have ordered (2 million to be exact) in 4Q 2007 as has been reported, the BDA can kiss any chance they have of burying HD DVD goodbye. At that point, we will see Disney at least go neutral and possibly Fox. I would not be surprised to see Walmart and Disney coordinate their efforts to have Disney HD-DVD discs available when Walmart rolls out their HD-DVD players. At that point, the best BD can hope for is a stalmate. I am really amused by the BDA press releases on this stuff every week or so. It is like they think if they say something often enough, it will come to pass. Let the public decide. I smell a hint of desperation over at the BDA.

I have said it before and I will say it again. Not enough machines have been sold for anyone t be too late to anything. Should Walmart stock the upcoming chinese HD-DVD players they have ordered (2 million to be exact) in 4Q 2007 as has been reported, the BDA can kiss any chance they have of burying HD DVD goodbye. At that point, wewill see Disney at leasy go neutral and possibly Fox. I would not be surprised to see Walmart and Disney cooridinate their efforts to have Disney HD-DVD discs available when Walmart rolls out their HD-DVD players. At that point, the best BD can hope for is a stalmate. I am really amused by the BDA press releases on this stuff every week or so. It is like they think if they say something often enough, it will come to pass. I smell a hint of desperation over at the BDA.

Update: Pull back the reigns HD DVD fanboys, Akihabara now says that they've made a "huge mistake" with their translation: the original source called it "藍光 HD DVD and 藍光 means Blu-RAY." In other words, Blu-ray HD DVD. Huh? Word to the wise: since both formats use blue lasers, it's best to wait for an English press release before either camp celebrates.

Link (http://www.engadget.com/2007/04/20/the-wal-mart-299-hd-dvd-player-on-the-way/)

It looks like we will be getting a bunch of craptastic Chinese BD players, oh well.

If that is true then HD-DVD will be dead and buried.

If that is true then HD-DVD will be dead and buried.
Yeah, I mean look at what happened to DVD, er wait.

If that is true then HD-DVD will be dead and buried.

I've lost track of the number of times this sentence has been posted in the past 18-24 months.

If possible, lets stay on track regarding the 3 questions posted in the OP.

~Josh

We will see. I own an HD-A1 and love it but a cheap BD player ay Wal Mart will be a problem for HD-DVD. On the other hand, if it is HD-DVD which appears likely, I stand by my inital post. Irrespective, what is amazing is how quick the price point of this new media is falling. The whole point of HD and BD from the CE perspective was to have new high priced formats so they can make money selling the machines. price points for the major CE companies now for DVD are very small. Looks like the HD/BD side will get to those low profit price points lightning fast compared to what happened with DVD. The likes of Panasonic, et al can't be happy with that.

From my experience blu ray seems to have more space available as of today. All I see happening is HD DVD taking some of that space from Blu Ray. HD DVD is already making a come back and we will see more of this in May and the summer.

Until there are enough sales and a lot more titles out shelf space doesn't seem to be an issue, INHO. Correct me if I am wrong, but there was 39,000 of casino royale sold last month. Divide that between all stores in the US and I am guessing that isn't much shelf space.

Can we please stop this "HD DVD is already making a comeback" myth until there is actually, you know, any sales data to back this up? For 2.5 days in the month of April on Amazon HD DVD passed BD in rankings during a staged software buy. This is not a comeback, and considering how many people still buy at B&M stores, it likely won't even put HD DVD ahead for the week, let alone the month.

Grasping at straws actually seem concrete compared to this BS.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Amazon/Disc_Sales/Disc_Sales:_Planet_Earth_Breaks_New_Amazon_Record_HD_DVD_Sta ging_a_Comeback/580

The chart on here shows a steady climb of HD DVD sales on Amazon starting on the 24th of March, it was higher on the 15th of April because of the staged software buy, but that is not where it started. I am not grasping at straws, the sales on amazon moved closer to Blu Rays, are you going to deny this? Once the titles came out HD DVD sales rose back up; to me rising sales can be considered a comeback.

With HD DVD already matching blu-ray in titles and the big news from China, eventually the stores will sway towards HD DVD. That is unless blu-ray can put out a $200 player and I don't see that happening anytie soon.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Amazon/Disc_Sales/Disc_Sales:_Planet_Earth_Breaks_New_Amazon_Record_HD_DVD_Sta ging_a_Comeback/580

The chart on here shows a steady climb of HD DVD sales on Amazon starting on the 24th of March, it was higher on the 15th of April because of the staged software buy, but that is not where it started. I am not grasping at straws, the sales on amazon moved closer to Blu Rays, are you going to deny this? Once the titles came out HD DVD sales rose back up; to me rising sales can be considered a comeback.

If next week's number show HD DVD is declining, does it mean the comeback is dead? Amazon's numbers mean very little. Its just one online retailer and its only useful to a narrow set of sale trends IF ITS NOT MANIPULATED by some group.

Link (http://www.engadget.com/2007/04/20/the-wal-mart-299-hd-dvd-player-on-the-way/)

It looks like we will be getting a bunch of craptastic Chinese BD players, oh well.
I think that the article in question means more like "blue ray laser HD DVD PLayers" , as in HD DVD players that use a blue ray.

The article definitely used "HD DVD", which is a trademark.

The only other option is "Bluray / HD DVD hybrid players", but the price of $299 would seem too low for a hybrid player.

Link (http://www.engadget.com/2007/04/20/the-wal-mart-299-hd-dvd-player-on-the-way/)

It looks like we will be getting a bunch of craptastic Chinese BD players, oh well.


I'm sure Joe Blow would love to buy a $299 Shinco - if he had an HDTV.

I think that the article in question means more like "blue ray laser HD DVD PLayers" , as in HD DVD players that use a blue ray.

The article definitely used "HD DVD", which is a trademark.

The only other option is "Bluray / HD DVD hybrid players", but the price of $299 would seem too low for a hybrid player.


The article also goes on to the saving of a format than can utilize pre-existing production lines. I've never been lead to believe that was BD.

Either way, once this war ends up at the Walmart level, and sell through pricing, what people say and do in these forums won't mean squat in terms of having any effect. Then it's all going to come down to economics and support will align itself accordingly.

By the way the only thing that makes me think they could be talking BD is the $299. If it's HD DVD I'll bet that price ends up being more like $199 or lower no matter what number is going around now.

If possible, lets stay on track regarding the 3 questions posted in the OP.


1) I think most people still visit stores when they buy things... perhaps not amongst us but I was thinking about 'normal' people :) So shelf space and presentation plays a role in sales IMHO.

2) The Sunnyvale Fry's has had a definite shift. At the beginning of the year there was a big HD DVD demo at the front door - now it is a BD demo. Also in the last week or so they have added a shelf to BD so that BD now has twice the shelf space as HD DVD. Also BD has an end cap - there is no end cap for HD DVD.

I have not seen any shift at Best Buy, it has been 50/50 for a while. Not been there lately though...

3) Q4 2007 will be interesting indeed - I am not sure that I share Universal's optimism.

I'm sure Joe Blow would love to buy a $299 Shinco - if he had an HDTV.

So everyone is blaming the format war for the slow HD adoption, yet you are now claiming that there aren't enough J6P's that even own HDTV's?!?

Are you aware that Wal-Mart is the #1 seller of electronics in the USA? Or that they account for 40% of DVD sales in the country? Why don't you check out their Black Friday ad from 2006 in which the entire front page was dedicated to electronics -- INCLUDING a $988 plasma HDTV and 32" flat-panel HDTV -- items that sold-out within minutes in every store!

As for the OP, all my local stores (BB &CC) offer comparable shelf space for both formats, excluding the paid end-caps that always frequent Best Buy (though they have had one end-cap with the Toshiba A2). In fact, my local Circuit City was playing HD-DVD demos on every screen in the TV department when I bought my A2 with 4 fre discs a few weeks back. And this is the chain that refused to even acknowledge the format last year when they were totally Blu-Ray!

BTW, Sony's David Bishop is the one proclaiming these supposed issues with shelf space, so who really cares what he claims? They've been spinning press releases all year that are never anything more than total BS.

Can we please stop this "HD DVD is already making a comeback" myth until there is actually, you know, any sales data to back this up? For 2.5 days in the month of April on Amazon HD DVD passed BD in rankings during a staged software buy. This is not a comeback, and considering how many people still buy at B&M stores, it likely won't even put HD DVD ahead for the week, let alone the month.

Grasping at straws actually seem concrete compared to this BS.
BR - R.I.P

The issue that I encounter with traditional retail stores is that they're so inconsistent in their support for both formats.
Best Buy? Forget them. Why anyone would give them their business is a mystery to me. Sh!tty prices, sh!tty stock, they give me the impression that they don't care about Hi-Def disc sales no matter what flavor.
BB could dedicate all of their space to one format or the other and it wouldn't matter.
Fry's is much better. Better prices but still a bit inconsistent in their stocking but some of this is likely out of their control.
One thing about Fry's is their pricing is very different by region. California seems to get the best deals.
Right now, I find myself going to whatever source has the best deal going whether it's Warner or Amazon or xploited or where ever.
Actually as much as it pains me to say it, Walmart is better at new releases and pricing at times than either of the above plus no one else who shops there has any idea this stuff exists.

I agree about Bishop's statement, you could just pull his string and the same drivel would come out. The question posed is largely irrelevant.

Can we please stop this "HD DVD is already making a comeback" mythYou know ottscay, it's pretty rich that you berate anyone regarding what they post.
I mean who is "we", someone who doesn't share your opinion, or unique insight?

Heres a thought..isn't it possible that both formats might co-exist, just in different parts of the world? For example HD-DVD could prosper in parts of Europe and China, while Blu-Ray could come out the winner in the US, Japan and Australia? There would be plenty of business for all this way.

The president of Sony made that statement ealier in 2007

On Monday, Sony Electronics President and Chief Operating Officer Stan Glasgow said the company will drop prices on its Blu-ray players significantly this year, possibly as low as $299, which could give Sony an even greater edge in the format war. Currently Blu-ray players retail for $999, compared with HD-DVD players, which retail for $499.

On Monday, Sony Electronics President and Chief Operating Officer Stan Glasgow said the company will drop prices on its Blu-ray players significantly this year, possibly as low as $299, which could give Sony an even greater edge in the format war. Currently Blu-ray players retail for $999, compared with HD-DVD players, which retail for $499.
Source?

The president of Sony made that statement ealier in 2007

On Monday, Sony Electronics President and Chief Operating Officer Stan Glasgow said the company will drop prices on its Blu-ray players significantly this year, possibly as low as $299, which could give Sony an even greater edge in the format war. Currently Blu-ray players retail for $999, compared with HD-DVD players, which retail for $499.


There was a comment about sony player being $299 in three years not this year.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9563116&highlight=sony+CEO#post9563116

2. Has anyone noticed any shifting of floor space in their local B&M stores to show a preference to one format of another?
~Josh

Of my local B&M stores that carry HD DVD and BD, 1 of the 3 Walmarts carry both (the other 2 have neither) and has equal space (though only about a dozen titles each); the Circuit City has a fairly equivalent presence though the last time I was there the BD was more prominently displayed; all 3 Targets carry an equivalently meager selection; both Best Buys carry both, one has equivalent space for both (probably about 60-70 titles each) and the other has double the space for HD DVD vs. BD (about 60 HD DVD and 30 BD). There hasn't been any significant shifting as of late.

Our local CC has redesigned their store. The HD and BD discs are all displayed together on one long display. Both sides are well stocked.

1. How much of a role will retail floor space play in the eventual outcome of this format war?I think it'll play a fairly big role; perception is reality, and all that.

2. Has anyone noticed any shifting of floor space in their local B&M stores to show a preference to one format of another?Yes, in fact. At the local Wal*Mart, they went from having 12 slots each for Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD to having 24 slots for Blu-ray Disc, and leaving HD DVD with the same 12 it had before. The front of the display also has a few BD logos on it now (HD DVD doesn't have anything on it).

My local BestBuy has a large selection of both formats in about even numbers. I would guess over 100 titles each and they are quite prominently displayed. But their hardware section is overwhelmingly dominated by BD. The manager there told me the BD companies pay for the hardware displays.

My local CC has twice as much shelf space for BD software as they do for HD-DVD. I think the hardware is about the same (but don't really know for sure).

I think the retail presence will have a bigger impact than many here suggest. New HDTV buyers may be presented with a particular company's HD player being demoed along with their own branded display and being sold them in a bundle. Or at least thinking that eventually when they buy the HD player they should get the one that matches their brand of HDTV.