Just like 8mm movies, VHS & Beta, Laserdisks, SD DVD, history tells us, the new HD formats of today will be made obsolete and superseded in the future by something new and totally different. So what do members of this forum think that new format will look like, how long before it is developed and how will it change the way we view media?

Downloads and streaming.

Online distribution will eventually trump all traditional media formats, the only argument is the timeframe that will take place in.

One of those holographic 1TB discs - my particular bet is HVD, it's a pretty cool stuff.

Downloads and streaming is out of question until the parasites (MPAA and RIAA) won't drop DRM and/or solve portability.
WMVHD never took off due to this problem, iTunes still sucks big time due to this problem, proprietary formats like Sony's UMD are destined to death from the beginning.

One of those holographic 1TB discs - my particular bet is HVD, it's a pretty cool stuff.

Downloads and streaming is out of question until the parasites (MPAA and RIAA) won't drop DRM and/or solve portability.
WMVHD never took off due to this problem, iTunes still sucks big time due to this problem, proprietary formats like Sony's UMD are destined to death from the beginning.


Id say the future would be on the Holographic Versatile Card =.. not the cd's

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_Versatile_Card

http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20050608/105586/050608_hvc1.jpg

That would be ausom is movie were on that !

i think physical media will be around for quite some time longer. streaming and downloads are nice, but having somehting physical you can hold and look at will always have more perceived value.

Anybody remember the RCA Selectavison or whatever it was called? It had those disks that were inside some type of cartridge thing, and you would slide it in, and pull the lever down. I remember they had movies like Tootsie and stuff like that, lol. Talk about old school. That was one format that was supposedly going to be the de facto standard for video at home, and it died pretty quickly. Sometimes I still see the discs at Garage Sales or Thrift Stores.

VOD will pick up steam as it matures, but I don't know if it will eclipse the physical mediums like discs/cards because of bandwidth consumption at high bitrates.

Downloads and streaming is out of question until the parasites (MPAA and RIAA) won't drop DRM and/or solve portability.

And the DRM/lack of portability on HD DVD and Blu-ray aren't a problem for you?

WMVHD never took off due to this problem,

WMV-HD never took off because it was never meant to, it was a glorified experiment/tech demonstration. Also never took off because it was limited to PCs.

What future media format will make Blu-ray & HD DVD obsolete?

Whatever media type that Neo was blackmarketing in the Matrix

Lol, I don't think being limited to PCs was a problem; Mac market share at the time was less than 5% world wide. You are probably right that it was more of a tech demonstration than intended format though.

It will be interesting to see what the timeline (if ever) is for adoption of online media. I, for one, will oppose it continuously unless companies do it honestly and do not prevent proper personal use (e.g using it on multiple devices, across my own network, and/or on portable devices). Otherwise I will always insist on owning physical media to be able to show that I legitimately own the software I was forced to hack to use on my psp, ipod, etc.

Microsoft is clearly trying to manuever things to speed up the adoption of online delivery of movies...I just hope they lose this particular battle.

Aren't the media formats limited by the media printed on them?

How far can we go before we don't notice a difference?

And the DRM/lack of portability on HD DVD and Blu-ray aren't a problem for you?


Ummm I'm afraid I am not following you - what you are talking about?

As far as I know I can play any HD-DVD disc on any HD-DVD player.

Not being able to archive/back it up - that's still an issue, yes but I never mentioned any of the current optical HD formats.


WMV-HD never took off because it was never meant to, it was a glorified experiment/tech demonstration. Also never took off because it was limited to PCs.

Still, WMVHD had no chance to become anything online due to its DRM-infected nature.

Id say the future would be on the Holographic Versatile Card =.. not the cd's

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_Versatile_Card

http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20050608/105586/050608_hvc1.jpg

That would be ausom is movie were on that !

It's the same company/technology I'm talking about, just a different, lower capacity medium.

No one has asked the better question?

What type of movies would they put on another format?

Movie stuidos are remastering their reels to 1080P and a lot of new movies are using 1080P HD camera's. From a realistic perspective 1080P is as high as we are ever going to get for a consumer media product for movies.

So knowing that what would drive their to be a larger capacity media format in the future for movies??

No one has asked the better question?

What type of movies would they put on another format?

Movie stuidos are remastering their reels to 1080P and a lot of new movies are using 1080P HD camera's. From a realistic perspective 1080P is as high as we are ever going to get for a consumer media product for movies.

So knowing that what would drive their to be a larger capacity media format in the future for movies??


read up a few posts ;) (aka... mine)

No one has asked the better question?

What type of movies would they put on another format?

Movie stuidos are remastering their reels to 1080P and a lot of new movies are using 1080P HD camera's. From a realistic perspective 1080P is as high as we are ever going to get for a consumer media product for movies.

So knowing that what would drive their to be a larger capacity media format in the future for movies??

Khm, a lot of post studios are working in 4K already, for years, I think and I also bet the internal master is also higher than 1080p.

Khm, a lot of post studios are working in 4K already, for years, I think and I also bet the internal master is also higher than 1080p.

Unless the displays got much better and bigger marginal utility in going to anything beyond 1080p is minimal.

We should be looking at 3-D as a better bang for the buck improvement ...

Lol, I don't think being limited to PCs was a problem; Mac market share at the time was less than 5% world wide. You are probably right that it was more of a tech demonstration than intended format though.

I meant PC as in computer, vs CE devices. Most people would still rather have a "DVD player" than a computer that plays DVDs. Asside from there being no intention (as far as I've seen) for WMV-HD to ever be a "success", lack of set top players were killer.

It will be interesting to see what the timeline (if ever) is for adoption of online media.

I like to separate network-delivered from "internet"-delivered media. What we see now is a lot of Internet delivered media, and for the most part I agree, it won't take off.

However, what I see taking off, is network-delivered content, IPTV is just the tip of the iceburg in that regard. What I see is a service that's essentially Netflix, but without the mailing, you get a set top box (or maybe a PC program/plugin) and you can browse and instantly play anything, all for a nominal monthly fee.

I, for one, will oppose it continuously unless companies do it honestly and do not prevent proper personal use (e.g using it on multiple devices, across my own network, and/or on portable devices). Otherwise I will always insist on owning physical media to be able to show that I legitimately own the software I was forced to hack to use on my psp, ipod, etc.

I agree with you regarding the current state of DRM. IMO you can have DRM or you can sell something. Since DRM prevents ownership (ie Fair Use), DRM and selling are mutually exclusive.

I do think that a service with instant access to any content could easilly be viable, even with DRM.

Microsoft is clearly trying to manuever things to speed up the adoption of online delivery of movies...I just hope they lose this particular battle.

If Xbox Live Video Marketplace was a service, I'd be all over it, as it stands I refuse to "rent" movies with DRM, so I'm passing.

Ummm I'm afraid I am not following you - what you are talking about?

ICT, DOT, Player Revocation, etc, etc, there's a lot of stuff AACS is capable of that's pretty scary, not to mention BD+.

As far as I know I can play any HD-DVD disc on any HD-DVD player.

And you could play any WMV-HD in any "WMV-HD player". If you look at WMV-HD vs HD DVD or Blu-ray you'll find them probably on par in terms of playback troubles on PCs, and even to a degree on standalones.

Not being able to archive/back it up - that's still an issue, yes but I never mentioned any of the current optical HD formats.

Yes, that's the primary thing I'm talking about. That was my point, the current HD optical formats are the most DRM-ridden "mass-market" (or intended to be mass market) products in history, and yet you just ignore them as if they're DRM free.

Of course in many ways HD DVD and Blu-ray (or shall we just say AACS) are more restrictive than WMV-HD ever was. WMV-HD could be played back at any resolution on any video card, any drivers, no special requirements.

AACS requires special video cards, special drivers, even then HDCP handshaking doesn't always play nice....

Still, WMVHD had no chance to become anything online due to its DRM-infected nature.

AACS is capable of as much, and even more than WM RM (the DRM on WMV-HD) ever was, DOT, ICT are things not even present in WMV-HD, yet they are definitely there in AACS.

A lot of people seem to be willing to give HD DVD and Blu-ray a pass on the DRM front because they're so blinded by the PQ, but both are really a significant step back in terms of Fair Use and consumer's rights. I fear they are a far bigger threat than WMV-HD ever was, because these formats have the potential to embed DRM forever.

"From a realistic perspective 1080P is as high as we are ever going to get for a consumer media product for movies."

Not if the movie studio business models dont change since they are built on reselling the same movies over, and over, and over again.

Ok, I This might be the solution for the new media format. :)

Software downloads will eventually replace HD DVD at the end of their lifespan and you won't even care.

How many people use Netflix or BB Total Access?
What is the "download" time for that (i.e mail time)? 1-2 days. People don't seem to mind.

Rentals are increasing by double digits while media sales are flat compared to last year. Now figure HD Media should last us about a decade. So in 2017 when someone can sell you a STB that connects to your home networks and downloads movies while you sleep for a Netflix type price are you going to say no? I would rather mail this ancient media back. What about when the box is smart enough to download movies before they are released and offer them to you as soon as you get home from work. Are you going to say No I'll pass I would rather drive through Rush hour traffic to get to a store to buy a physical disc or goto a rental chain to rent a physical disc?


Imagine a STB with 2TB drive drive in it. Cost next to nothing in 10 years. That gives it about a 100 movie capacity. With my current internet connection I can download 50GB per day. FIOS offers 15mbps that would be enough for about 150GB / day. Figure 20GB for 1080P, 10GB for 720P, and 2GB for 480P. Let's say bandwidth only doubles in next 10 years (unlikely) that would be a 30mbps or about 300GB on download capacity. Imagine NetFlicks without the mail. You make a wish list of current and future movie releases and it downloads them for you. Throw is some Tivo type logic and it finds movies you may like based on movies you did or did not like. It surprises you one night with a movie you love but might never have picked up. What if you could get this service for same price as Netflix? Would you really say no I want to rent the physical disc instead. Even if you would say no how many million and millions on J6P would say yes? Now that HDTV penetration is about 90%+.

Renting for suckers? Want to buy movies instead? Sure no problem your got the premium service. Cost an extra $30 / month but the first 2 purchases are free. Your service will download them for you before release day and hand you the key at midnight. Don't try to hack it though. In 2013 the studios got smart and started removing iframes and inserting countermeasures that will destroy your STB and HDTV display. The Digital Nazi act of 2014 made them non liable for any damages you may incur if you attempt to circumvent their product. Your key isn't just an encryption key but its also an algrorithm for placing the iframes back in the correct place and deleting the countermeasures. Now seeing as the purchase version is HD+ it might ake a little longer at 60GB / movie guess you can only buy an average of 100 movies / month. With managed copy you can either throw it on your 5TB RAIDED media server or burn it to those old fashion HD DVD (quad layer of course) or put it on your new HVD Discs (2TB each so they can either hold 40 HD movies or 10 UltraHD movies.

Now HVD being optical can't be stamped I can only be burned making tradition distribution formats worthless. Too time consuming to burn racks and racks of expensive HVD discs and place them in the stores. However a buy & burn system would compliment it nicely. Still don't like downloading. Don't worry BB has a kiosk w/ ultra fast internet connection and media server of all the great movies. Hell you even heard your local grocery store in getting in on the buy to burn kiosk sales.

Now most consumers (and your wife) say UltraHD with its 4K x 2K resolution and 4x the pixels of mere HD is a waste of money. For the last decade that is all you have heard the movie theaters brag about. They got to do something to bring people into the movies. Every single movie starts with those annoying 4x resolution of HD ads. You being an AVS member bought your 1G UltraHD Set and couldn't wait until your download/rental/purchase service finally started allowing UltraHD in your home. Man 8 million pixels looks good on that 120" screen Ultra Contrast LCD /OLDED /Laser TV/ SED TV. The ability to watch movies at same resolution as a digital cinema with no sticky floors or screaming kids - priceless.

hehe...

Actually I can't wait for digital downloads to come early. This way I can see these extremists on both sides run around like chicken with their heads cut off.

Hard Drives.

We'll simply walk into the store and buy mini hard drives with the movie loaded up. These drives will plug into a plethora of audio/computer devices.

Recordable rust rules!

hehe...

I know its a joke - but - I doubt non-pressable media will make it to commercial distribution. The per unit cost needs to be very small - below 1$. Preferably a few cents.

Download movies are here! Netflix is offering them at no additional charge. I just finished watching the Worlds Fastest Indian downloaded from them. No, they aren't HD quality, but unfortunately for us we are living in a IPod world the unwashed masses could care less. I have to admit I had the Worlds Fastest Indian HD-DVD on my Netflix rental list but ended up watching the download tonight. Chalk one up for convenience.

Flash is dropping awfully fast, too. Capacities aren't quite there.

Biomolecular memory in a crystal?

Whatever it is, I want 256bit uncompressed audio and video

Interesting, no one has yet brought up the possibility of 3D Holographic media and the type of storage unit needed for home useage. That would be the Ultimate High Definition.

Flash Memory 500 gb

I have no idea. But shouldn't we make sure it is not DVD :)

It might be DL, it might be something else. If it is an other hard media, I don't think it will be flash or HDD or anything else that implies copying info to a blank.

The studios have already decided NOT to give 1920x1080 for the downloads. It is something less and has already been published (the statement that HD content on downloads will be down-rezed.)

It will be HD DVD 4k.

I have no idea. But shouldn't we make sure it is not DVD :)


Exactly. It may not be a "future" media.

The studios have already decided NOT to give 1920x1080 for the downloads. It is something less and has already been published (the statement that HD content on downloads will be down-rezed.)

I don't remember any statement that studios decided not to allow 1080P downloads. 720P was chosen because at good encode is about 1/2 the size of 1080P. With current download speeds, hardware, and the consumers being targeted 720P made more sense. If (not saying the will) 720P downloads begin generating lots of $$$ and consumers start asking for 1080P they will offer it.

I doubt the studios will say "no 1080P is only for optical media even though the drm for that is already broken and pirated 1080Ps are available on the web. If you want 1080P download you will have to steal it because we are not going to give you a legal option"

It's easy to think downloadable HD movies will become mainstream when you reside in a bubble here on avs. It's a nice comfy bubble that I enjoy also - so no insult intended. But my point being, when do you think the average walmart shopper is going to be comfortable downloading and storing 1080p (and beyond) content?

Forget the fact that it will be atleast until fiber has over taken cable as a transport medium. Many people (believe it or not) still don't even have the internet. in their homes.

I think it's in our future but WAY down the road. Well after the next "format" has arrived. Personally I hope it's just not another disc or something easily scratched, smudged and rendered unplayable. You certainly don't have to worry about a hard drive failing and losing all your movies if you own a physical copy of the movie.

You don't need 4k.Its barely justifiable from the perspective of a theater sized installation let alone a home one ,its going to be 1080p for decades.

This makes me laugh all this talk about 4k home formats. All the people that are suggesting its use as a home format would be very disapointed if they ever actually saw the difference it makes. If you think the difference between 720p and 1080p is subtle then you will need a little logo to flash up to notify you that you are actually watching 4k rather than 1080p.

And it would cost you a huge amount of money. Forget the resolution , improve the colour and intensity range.

word

It's easy to think downloadable HD movies will become mainstream when you reside in a bubble here on avs. It's a nice comfy bubble that I enjoy also - so no insult intended. But my point being, when do you think the average walmart shopper is going to be comfortable downloading and storing 1080p (and beyond) content?

Forget the fact that it will be atleast until fiber has over taken cable as a transport medium. Many people (believe it or not) still don't even have the internet. in their homes.

I think it's in our future but WAY down the road. Well after the next "format" has arrived. Personally I hope it's just not another disc or something easily scratched, smudged and rendered unplayable. You certainly don't have to worry about a hard drive failing and losing all your movies if you own a physical copy of the movie.

First of all there is no need for long term storage on a rental system. Either a traditional per movie system or a per month system like Netlfix. All you need is a box that connects to your home router either ethernet or wifi and connects to your TV. Throw in a 300GB hard drive and a soc design that can decode 720p and you are in business.


In US DVD Rentals are growing to replace DVD Sales Revenue (all # in billions)
2004 2005 2006
DVD Sales 15.5 16.3 16.6
DVD Rentals 5.7 6.5 7.5
Total DVD Spending 21.2 22.8 24.1
Total DVD&VHS Spending 24.5 24.3 24.2

http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/CES010807.htm

Notice that total Spending is essential fla. The only reason DVD Total Spending was going up was it was killing off last VHS sales/rentals. With VHS gone that easy growth is gone also. DVD sales were 16.6 billion up from 16.3 billion a growth of a mere 2%. DVD Rentals were 7.5 billion vs 6.5 billion which is an impressive 15% growth. The main point is that total spending isn't going up it remains flat and consumers seem to think rentals are a better value as each year the % of their entertainment dollars grows.

When you consider purchases are about $20 and rentals about $5 it is likely that consumers already rent more movies then they buy. I doubt this is going to slow down anytime soon. Many here have 100, 200, 1000+ DVD collections but most consumers are content to rent most movies and buy a few. I doubt this is going to change anytime soon.

We are in the very beginning steps of digital downloads. Both Blockbuster and Netflix stated they are researching online content delivery. Netflix CEO is now on Microsoft's board, anyone wonder why? Microsoft is pushing HD downloads with the 360. Likely initially most content will be DVD quality and as more and more consumers move to HD they will offer HD content. I would suspect it will be 720P as it is a good compramise between quality and speed.

Now take the millions of users using netflix, or another rental service. If that service offered the same features with no mailing do you honestly think they will say no I like waiting 2 days for the disk to arrive damaged? As HD replaces DVD do you think the companies offering SD downloads to STB will just say well it was a nice run let's close up shop? No they will transition the download service from SD to HD to maintain subscriber growth.

Will most AVSer use such a service? Maybe not but we make up less than 1/100th of 1% of the buying public. There is billions of dollars available to the first company who can deliver a TIVO like experience with content on demand. Pay $20 a month watch all the movies you want, no mailing, no discs just select the movie on screen and press play.

The way I see the progression is
1) SD rentals (per movie)
2) SD rentals (monthly service)
3) SD/HD rentals mix (monthly service & per movie)
4) HD purchase

Saying that no way we will get to step 4 tomorrow shows a lack of understanding that tons of money will be made at step 1, 2 & 3. Eventually there will be a demand for step 4 and companies will offer it to maitain the billions in revenue generated from steps 1-3.