[I'm looking for individual disc sales numbers to ascertain the impact of HD optical movie sales on the individual studios as well as to measure mass-market penetration. I'm sure this info has been listed in various posts, but it's a bit of a pain finding all the relevant info scattered around and I think consolidation wouldn't be a bad idea. Here is what I got so far, but the link to the Neilsen data I'm referencing is dead, so a few spots remain unfilled. If anybody can fill them in, that would be great. I would like to keep this updated and accurate as much as possible, as new disc sales figures are announced. Thanks all. ]

ALL SALES ARE FROM INCEPTION TO 03/18/07 (which are the most recent numbers)
Source: Nielsen VideoScan numbers, released by Sony (link is now dead)

BLU-RAY: 141,447
1) Departed: 38993 (Warner Bros.; 02/13/2007)
2) Superman Returns: 30845 (Warner Bros; 11/28/2006)
3) Casino Royale: 28306 (Sony; 03/13/2007)
4) 5th Element: 21799 (Sony; 06/20/2006)
5) Underworld Evolution: 21797 (Sony 06/20/2006)

BLU-RAY (EXCLUSIVE ONLY): 114,123
1) Casino Royale: 28306 (Sony; 03/13/2007)
2) 5th Element: 21799 (Sony; 06/20/2006)
3) Underworld Evolution: 21797 (Sony; 06/20/2006)
4) X-Men: The Last Stand: 21504 (Fox; 11/14/2006)
5) The Prestige: 20717 (Disney; 02/20/2007)

HD DVD: 121,499
1) Batman Begins: 34313 (Warner Bros; 10/10/2006)
2) Superman Returns: 28440 (Warner Bros; 11/28/2006)
3) The Departed: 23454 (Warner Bros; 02/13/2007)
4) Serenity: 17755 (04/18/2006)
5) Mission Impossible 3: 17537 (10/30/2006)

HD DVD (EXCLUSIVE ONLY): 98,412
1) Batman Begins: 34313 (Warner Bros; 10/10/2006)
2) Serenity: 17755 (Universal; 04/18/2006)
3) Troy: 16229 (Warner Bros; 09/12/2006; HD DVD)
4) The Last Samurai: 15799 (Warner Bros; 04/18/2006)
5) Apollo 13: 14316 (Universal; 04/25/2006)

TOTAL HD SALES (FORMAT SEPARATE): 156,045
1) Departed: 38993 (Warner Bros.; 02/13/2007; BLU-RAY)
2) Batman Begins: 34313 (Warner Bros; 10/10/2006; HD DVD)
3) Superman Returns: 30845 (Warner Bros; 11/28/2006; BLU-RAY)
4) Superman Returns: 28440 (Warner Bros; 11/28/2006; HD DVD)
5) Casino Royal: 28306 (Sony; 03/13/2007; BLU-RAY)

TOTAL HD SALES (FORMAT COMBINED): 219,288
1) The Departed: 62447 (Warner Bros.; 02/13/2007; MULTI)
2) Superman Returns: 59285 (Warner Bros.; 11/28/2006; MULTI)
3) Mission Impossible 3: 34937 (10/30/2006; MULTI)
4) Batman Begins: 34313 (Warner Bros.;10/10/2006, HD DVD)
5) Casino Royal: 28306 (Sony; 03/13/2007; BLU-RAY)

DISNEY
1) The Prestige: 20717 (02/20/2007)
2) Invincible: 11538 (12/19/2006)
3) Gone in 60 Seconds: 10519 (10/17/2006)
4) The Guardian: 9935 (01/23/2007)
5) Eight Below: 6694 (09/19/2006)

FOX
1) X-Men: The Last Stand: 21504 (11/14/2006)
2) Ice Age: Meltdown: 19739 (11/21/2006)
3) Kingdom of Heaven: 11155 (11/14/2006)
4) Devil Wears Prada: 6279 (12/12/2006)
5) Fantastic Four: 5792 (11/14/2006)

LIONSGATE
1) Crank: 15751 (01/09/2007)
2) Saw 3: 14441 (01/23/2007)
3) Terminator 2: 14395 (06/27/2006)
4) Descent: 7805 (12/26/2006)
5) Crash: 6718 (06/27/2006)

PARAMOUNT (FORMAT SEPARATE)
1) Mission Impossible 3: 17537 (10/30/2006; HD DVD)
2) Mission Impossible 3: 17400 (10/30/2006; BLU-RAY)
3) World Trade Center: 9338 (12/12/2006; BLU-RAY)
4) World Trade Center: 8349 (12/12/2006; HD DVD)
5) Babel: 8610 (02/20/2007; BLU-RAY)

PARAMOUNT (FORMAT COMBINED)
1) Mission Impossible 3: 34937 (10/30/2006; MULTI)
2) World Trade Center: 17687 (12/12/2006: MULTI)
2) Babel: 15032 (02/20/2007; MULTI)
3) Italian Job: 12399 (VARIES; MULTI)
5) Aeon Flux: 12378 (VARIES; MULTI)

SONY
1) Casino Royale: 28306 (03/13/2007)
2) 5th Element: 21799 (06/20/2006)
3) Underworld Evolution: 21797 (06/20/2006)
4) Talledega Nights: 19235 (12/12/2006; Note: Release date indicates this does not count PS3 pack-in?)
5) Black Hawk Down: 17117 (11/14/2006)

UNIVERSAL
1) Serenity: 17755 (04/18/2006)
2) Apollo 13: 14316 (04/25/2006)
3) Bourne Supremacy: 12965 (05/23/2006)
4) Miami Vice: 11355 (12/05/2006)
5) Fearless: 10004 (12/19/2006)

WARNER BROS (FORMAT SEPARATE)
1) Departed: 38993 (Warner Bros.; 02/13/2007; BLU-RAY)
2) Batman Begins: 34313 (Warner Bros; 10/10/2006; HD DVD)
3) Superman Returns: 30845 (Warner Bros; 11/28/2006; BLU-RAY)
4) Superman Returns: 28440 (Warner Bros; 11/28/2006; HD DVD)
5) The Departed: 23454 (Warner Bros; 02/13/2007; HD DVD)

WARNER BROS (FORMAT COMBINED)
1) The Departed: 62447 (Warner Bros.; 02/13/2007; MULTI)
2) Superman Returns: 59285 (Warner Bros.; 11/28/2006; MULTI)
3) Batman Begins: 34313 (Warner Bros; 10/10/2006; HD DVD)
4) Goodfellas: 17504 (05/02/2006; HD DVD; Note: Blu-ray version was not released at the time these numbers were published)
5) Troy: 16229 (09/12/2006; HD DVD)

WEINSTEIN
1) Lucky # Slevin: 5260 (01/16/2007)
2 Clerks 2: 4410 (11/282006)
3) Pulse: 2098 (01/16/2007)
4) Matador: 646 (12/19/2006)
5) Derailed: 397 (12/19/2006)

(MODS: I realize this is "sales" talk, but I'm really trying to extract this useful info from the general mess of sales ratios and charts and such found in the sales threads. I think having quick access to this info would be useful for all. In fact, these simple top five lists wouldn't be a bad thing to keep udated and sticky as a non-format specific sales thread, IMO. If this needs to get thrown into the general sale thread, so be it, but it will be much harder to keep this information current if that happens)

There is a thread with all of this info. Both formats have sold right at a million discs with BD being over it by a bit.

There is a thread with all of this info. Both formats have sold right at a million discs with BD being over it by a bit.

Per disc per studio? I'm aware of threads with total numbers, but not a per title, per studio breakdown as I'm describing.

Okay, so I found a partial reprint of the data I was looking for and was able to *mostly* complete the lists. Does anybody have a working link to the original Neilsen disc sales data from last month?

Quick observations from the above:

1) Warner Bros. is laughing all the way to the bank. While the Departed shows a heavy Blu-ray sales advantage, Superman shows pretty much even sales. I'm sure Warner is itching to be able to release Batman Begins on Blu-ray as they will likely sell just as many copies on Blu-ray as they have on HD DVD, if not more. The data seem to indicate that Warner is sitting on a Blu-ray blockbuster, just as Batman Begins has been an HD DVD blockbuster. Same thing will likely happen with the Matrix Trilogy.

2) Mission Impossible 3 has been very successful for Paramount. Odd to see that they don't release more often a la Warner Bros.

3) Surprisingly tepid sales for Universal. They are being outperformed by Lionsgate (in a "top 5 sense"), which is truly surprsing to me. Seems to be more film related than format related... wonder what kind of sales they will see if they release a recent blockbuster like Warner Bros. or Sony. Perhaps Children of Men will see stonger numbers.

Warner shows that the only way to have even decent sales is to be neutral. The HDDVD numbers are damn impressive for the number of installed players they have. I suspect what we have is a near equal number of players sold for movies with the difference in movie sales being a relatively small number of PS3 owners that bought a disc and saw no difference on their display and haven't purchased another disc to this point.

There is a thread with all of this info. Both formats have sold right at a million discs with BD being over it by a bit.

BluRay hit 1 million this week. HD-DVD is around 750,000 right now.

Both together equal 1,750,000.
The since inception number are 58 percent vs. 42 percent.
1,750,000 x .58 = 1,015,000 - Blu-Ray
1,750,000 x .42 = 735,000 - HD-DVD

Blu-Ray has outsold HD-DVD by around 250,000 discs right now.

BluRay hit 1 million this week. HD-DVD is around 750,000 right now.

Both together equal 1,750,000.
The since inception number are 58 percent vs. 42 percent.
1,750,000 x .58 = 1,015,000 - Blu-Ray
1,750,000 x .42 = 735,000 - HD-DVD

Blu-Ray has outsold HD-DVD by around 250,000 discs right now.

Your guesses aren't going to stand up to the actual numbers it seems.

Here's one you can derive from the lists above:

"BLOCKBUSTER" Ranking (studios ranked according to the sales of their #1 selling disc)
1) Warner Bros.
2) Sony
3) Fox
4) Disney
5) Universal
6) Paramount
7) Weinstein (presumably)

I expect there may be some shuffling when POTC gets released, but I can't think of anything off the top of my head that will move Universal up. The Matrix will allow Warner Bros. continued domination.

I'm sure Warner is itching to be able to release Batman Begins on Blu-ray as they will likely sell just as many copies on Blu-ray as they have on HD DVD, if not more.


I doubt it, Warner would sell >100,000 copies of a Batman Begins Special Edition on Standard DVD in one day. HD DVD and Blu-Ray sales aren't even a slice of the whole pizza yet, they probably aren't even a single pepperoni.

I doubt it, Warner would sell >100,000 copies of a Batman Begins Special Edition on Standard DVD in one day. HD DVD and Blu-Ray sales aren't even a slice of the whole pizza yet, they probably aren't even a single pepperoni.

Of course DVD sales are better, but GIVEN that they were inclined enough to release the HD DVD, they would be no less inclined to release the Blu-ray version as they would likely sell at least as many copies. By your logic, no studio would bother to release for high def at all, ever.

General disc numbers? HD DVD total sales are only 2% behind Bluray 998,500 sold versus 1,000,000. http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=839543

Also, the week beginning the 15th, Videoscan numbers show HD DVD selling 40% of the market and BD selling 60%.

HD DVD is closing the weekly sales gap and BD has not blown away the competition as they needed to...

General disc numbers? HD DVD total sales are only 2% behind Bluray 998,500 sold versus 1,000,000. http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=839543I have the original email and your claim isn't true, so I hope you won't claim that anymore. From past experience, it won't surprise me if you do and blame me for pointing out misinformation that you post though.

BTW: 2k isn't 2% of one million. It is .2%. But since it isn't 2k, it isn't .2%.

--Darin

I'm sure Warner is itching to be able to release Batman Begins on Blu-ray as they will likely sell just as many copies on Blu-ray as they have on HD DVD

It Warner is "itching" to get a piece of the Batman Begins pie on Blu-ray, then it wouldn't surprise me if Universal, Disney, Fox, and Lionsgate weren't also "itching" to get a piece of the whole pie as well. It doesn't matter which format whould sell more of a particular title. Why should any studio be shutting themselves out of a part of the action!?

It Warner is "itching" to get a piece of the Batman Begins pie on Blu-ray, then it wouldn't surprise me if Universal, Disney, Fox, and Lionsgate weren't also "itching" to get a piece of the whole pie as well. It doesn't matter which format whould sell more of a particular title. Why should any studio be shutting themselves out of a part of the action!?

You are so correct. I own a small manufacturing company and I could see the look on my sales staff faces if I informed them we're not going to sell our products east of the Mississippi river LOL.

To OP. There's a pdf released by Sony of nielsen point of sale data up to Mar11. It contains very detailed per titles sales data for all disks released up to march. Perhaps someone here could point out a link for you.

The original link below doesn't work anymore :
http://www.thedigitalbits.com/files/sonyhdreport031807.zip

Try this (http://rapidshare.com/files/28101371/sonyhdreport031807.zip.html).

Of course DVD sales are better, but GIVEN that they were inclined enough to release the HD DVD, they would be no less inclined to release the Blu-ray version as they would likely sell at least as many copies. By your logic, no studio would bother to release for high def at all, ever.

But my point is why bother making a Blu-Ray version of an HD DVD movie, or a HD DVD version of a Blu-Ray, when the most it can sell at the current time is ~40,000. From a monetary perspective it is best to lay back and wait until both formats have a greater market penetration than they currently do.

[QUOTE]
But my point is why bother making a Blu-Ray version of an HD DVD movie, or a HD DVD version of a Blu-Ray, when the most it can sell at the current time is ~40,000. From a monetary perspective it is best to lay back and wait until both formats have a greater market penetration than they currently do.


I'm just guessing and someone can correct me if I'm wrong but if it's the same encode VC1 for example I think it would be fairly easy to do especially for HD DVD from what I understand it's cheaper to replicate.

I have the original email and your claim isn't true, so I hope you won't claim that anymore. From past experience, it won't surprise me if you do and blame me for pointing out misinformation that you post though.

BTW: 2k isn't 2% of one million. It is .2%. But since it isn't 2k, it isn't .2%.

--Darin
Feel free to supply a link.

From the info that was posted the HD DVD sales were at 998,500 as compared to 1,000,000.

So perhaps it is even less than the 2% I've stated, but it may be a better rebuttal if you provided the link? ;)

[QUOTE]
But my point is why bother making a Blu-Ray version of an HD DVD movie, or a HD DVD version of a Blu-Ray, when the most it can sell at the current time is ~40,000. From a monetary perspective it is best to lay back and wait until both formats have a greater market penetration than they currently do.


I'm just guessing and someone can correct me if I'm wrong but if it's the same encode VC1 for example I think it would be fairly easy to do especially for HD DVD from what I understand it's cheaper to replicate.
The interactivity authoring is where the money is spent. The replicating of HDDVD is the same as DVD.

Gubert: many thanks for the link. I'll try and finish up the lists now.

Everybody else: while you are free to discuss whatever you want regarding overall sales and ratios and such, the point of these lists is to look very concretely at what titles are selling, who's selling them, and how many are being sold. I became a bit tired of all the vague 60:40 ratio style talk and really wanted simple concrete numbers and titles. These top 5 lists give a general indication of the health of HD sales, the health of particular formats, and the health of particular studios. Unfortunately, data of this type is rather infrequent so these lists will always be a bit dated, but I'm hoping we can work toghether to keep it as current as possible over time. Thanks all. Now back to bickering!

.. the point of these lists is to look very concretely at what titles are selling, who's selling them, and how many are being sold...

There is a lot of analysis with real numbers as well. Just buried deep in the thread, I guess.

But my point is why bother making a Blu-Ray version of an HD DVD movie, or a HD DVD version of a Blu-Ray, when the most it can sell at the current time is ~40,000. From a monetary perspective it is best to lay back and wait until both formats have a greater market penetration than they currently do.

Again, of course true, but it's a complicated chicken and egg thing. My impression is that Warner has no reservations about HD and is happy to release discs in either camp. Unlike other studios, they have a rough idea of EXACTLY how much money Batman can make them, while most movies are an unknown quantity for the studios. It's rare when you have such an accurate sales predictor at your fingertips.

However, in agreement with you, it's entirely possible that Warner's late Blu-ray releases (Batman, Matrix) will actually sell more than their HD DVD counterparts simply because the install base will be larger for the initial excitement/craze of the release. It's not logical, but for whatever reason a title sells more as a new release than as a title that's been out for a while, even if that title is just as new to the buyer in either case.

Feel free to supply a link.

From the info that was posted the HD DVD sales were at 998,500 as compared to 1,000,000.

So perhaps it is even less than the 2% I've stated, but it may be a better rebuttal if you provided the link? ;)It was in the email that some of us got. Anybody who also got it can confirm that it said:
But in the wake of Blu-ray’s Monday announcement of hitting 1 million units sold, we had to point out some of our own interesting observations from the latest Nielsen stats and from point-of-sales data compiled by Universal, Warner and Toshiba.

First is that HD DVD titles are now at 998,059 units sold – a mere 2,000 units shy of Blu-ray’s announcement from Monday.I know that some people may have trouble comprehending that, as somebody at IGN seemed to. They didn't say that sales were within 2k, but that they were within 2k of the Blu-ray announcement (not the same thing). They had the Nielsen stats, just like they said, and could have given those to tell us how far Nielsen says they were away, but they didn't. They also didn't lie and say that the sales were within 2k. According to the Nielsen stats in another thread, the Since Inception numbers are about 1.3:1 in Blu-ray's favor. By using point-of-sales data compiled by other companies they could add to the HD DVD numbers, but not add to the Blu-ray numbers (since they just used the announcement). Then they aren't comparing apples to apples, but then they didn't claim they were. I thought they made it pretty clear that they weren't comparing apples to apples and didn't claim that the sales were within 2k. Plus, the figures weren't even for the same day and there is almost zero chance that the Blu-ray sales were exactly 1,000,000.

--Darin

But my point is why bother making a Blu-Ray version of an HD DVD movie, or a HD DVD version of a Blu-Ray, when the most it can sell at the current time is ~40,000. From a monetary perspective it is best to lay back and wait until both formats have a greater market penetration than they currently do.This seems to be Paramount's thinking. Release enough to not make people too mad, but also let the others pull most of the heavy load trying to get one or both of these formats moving.

--Darin

It was in the email that some of us got. Anybody who also got it can confirm that it said:
I know that some people may have trouble comprehending that, as somebody at IGN seemed to. They didn't say that sales were within 2k, but that they were within 2k of the Blu-ray announcement (not the same thing). They had the Nielsen stats, just like they said, and could have given those to tell us how far Nielsen says they were away, but they didn't. They also didn't lie and say that the sales were within 2k. According to the Nielsen stats in another thread, the Since Inception numbers are about 1.3:1 in Blu-ray's favor. By using point-of-sales data compiled by other companies they could add to the HD DVD numbers, but not add to the Blu-ray numbers (since they just used the announcement). Then they aren't comparing apples to apples, but then they didn't claim they were. I thought they made it pretty clear that they weren't comparing apples to apples and didn't claim that the sales were within 2k. Plus, the figures weren't even for the same day and there is almost zero chance that the Blu-ray sales were exactly 1,000,000.

--Darin

Thanks for clearing that up, Darin. I know the BDA usually gets accused of the shady tactics, but that HD DVD press release was very sneaky in its wording, implying something that wasn't true. *Technically* they didn't lie, but the effect was obvious as people have been claiming that sales are within 2000 ever since.

Once again, that's why I'm trying to keep solid sales figures PER title here, so nothing gets lost in PR translation from either camp.

Thanks for clearing that up, Darin. I know the BDA usually gets accused of the shady tactics, but that HD DVD press release was very sneaky in its wording, implying something that wasn't true. *Technically* they didn't lie, but the effect was obvious as people have been claiming that sales are within 2000 ever since.When I read the email I understood that they didn't say that sales were that close, so didn't blame them. I think the problem was largely that somebody from IGN claimed that it said something it didn't, since they didn't seem to understand it. I could understand somebody saying that the IGN person was setup with careful wording and that is possible. I think it should drive home the point that just like the game of "Phone" (or whatever it is called when a message gets passed down a line and is usually completely different by the end), when one person or group reports on what somebody else said, they often get it wrong.

--Darin

Okay, I finished the list. A few more quick observations:

1) Weistein is a really small player. Many wondered whether Weinstein "counts" as a studio or whether Lionsgate was just as trivial. From a sales perspective, Lionsgate absolutely slaughters Weinstein, with a single Lionsgate title selling more than all Weinstein releases put together. I think Weinstein will become more important in the future once some of the Tarantino/Rodriguez stuff starts coming out.

2) In terms of the most popular titles, there doesn't seem to be a strong difference between the types of titles the HD DVD and Blu-ray camps are buying. Testosterone is heavy in both, mostly due to Warner's stuff. Universal's lesser selling titles (not shown here) do offer a bit more breadth though.

3) If you count a "hit" disc as more than 20,000 sold (completely arbitrary), only Disney, Sony, Fox, and Warner Bros. have released hits on any given format while Lionsgate, Paramount , Universal, and Weinstein are hitless. Blu-ray has had 5 exclusive hits, while HD DVD has had only one (Batman). Discounting Warner Bros. completely, HD DVD has yet to have a hit disc.

4) Warner Bros. is the most important company to HD disc. Should any format have secured them as exclusive, this war might have already ended by now. So close HD DVD, so close.... On the flip side, Blu-ray seriously screwed up by letting things get to the point where HD DVD gets preferential Warner treatment.

5) All these sales numbers are still too low to matter. We need to see numbers get into the 100,000s. I don't see either the Matrix or POTC making this happen as it seems day-and-date releases are the big sellers. We'll see.

Thanks for compiling these. I was surprised to see Lionsgate's top title be so close to Universal's at "1) Crank: 15751 (01/09/2007)" to "1) Serenity: 17755 (04/18/2006)", especially when Crank had be out for less than 2 and half months, and Serenity had been out for 11 months. Kind of drives home the point that while Universal has a good portion of the sales on the HD DVD side, they've done it by releasing a lot of movies. To be fair, "Crank" was day-and-date and "Serenity" wasn't, but I still didn't think of Lionsgate as having top titles competing with Universal's top titles for sales. Interesting that the 2nd and 3rd for each favor Lionsgate. I should note that I'm not sure which Universal titles were given away for free, but I think "Apollo 13" is one of them and so sales would probably be higher if not for that.

I have a feeling that the Weinsteins have lost more money on these discs than any other studio, other than Studio Canal who I think might have lost a lot as of this point. I doubt their sales are very high right now.

--Darin

This seems to be Paramount's thinking. Release enough to not make people too mad, but also let the others pull most of the heavy load trying to get one or both of these formats moving.

Yep. We may be all up in arms because we love the films, but to the studios it's just a business thing, driven by profit and stock prices. There's no advantage to them at all to risk their titles on a minor format (either one you pick is still minor) with potential piracy and copy protection issues. But while it makes good business sense to hold off, it still sucks for the end users.

That said, Warner is definately showing the way. Format neutral, with realistic prices. I'm sure their HD titles would have sold slightly more if they weren't expensive combos. I hate their disc authoring, but I like their business strategy.

Lionsgate and Weinstein movie ownership can be checked at imdb.com. Lionsgate distributes 3x as many movies as weinstein, but is still small potatos compared to the real majors. That's why people refer to them as mini-major. Weinstein otoh, is regarded as a minor studio.

Thanks for compiling these. I was surprised to see Lionsgate's top title be so close to Universal's at "1) Crank: 15751 (01/09/2007)" to "1) Serenity: 17755 (04/18/2006)", especially when Crank had be out for less than 2 and half months, and Serenity had been out for 11 months. Kind of drives home the point that while Universal has a good portion of the sales on the HD DVD side, they've done it by releasing a lot of movies. To be fair, "Crank" was day-and-date and "Serenity" wasn't, but I still didn't think of Lionsgate as having top titles competing with Universal's top titles for sales. Interesting that the 2nd and 3rd for each favor Lionsgate. I should note that I'm not sure which Universal titles were given away for free, but I think "Apollo 13" is one of them and so sales would probably be higher if not for that.

I have a feeling that the Weinsteins have lost more money on these discs than any other studio, other than Studio Canal who I think might have lost a lot as of this point. I doubt their sales are very high right now.

--Darin

I bet king kong would've been universal's best selling title if it wasn't packed in with the Xbox 360 HD DVD drive. it's one of the most highly regarded movies PQ-wise for either format and enough people liked it to probably beat out serenity if it wasn't packed in with the drive.

Neat thread.

Low sales numbers. Casino Royale BD sold roughly 28k copies at an MSRP of $30; that's only $840,000 in sales for a top selling next gen title. OTOH I do not have an exact figure but I would wager that the $20 SD Casiono Royale has sold 1 million or more copies in the same time frame making for $20,000,000+ in sales.

Providing that all of the numbers in this thread are accurate the conclusion can only be drawn one way:

The SD to HD transition is only now really getting started. This last year was just a time for both sides to get their operations in gear. The real battle is going to happen over the next year or two.

The data supports that it's not a matter of who making more money, but who's losing less. There's an opportunity cost associated with supporting a format where a "regular" movie might only sell 10,000 or fewer copies.

The BD camp is betting on software to win and he HD DVD camp on low player pricing. Any person that claims to be "sure" of the outsome should be ignored. AS they say in the case of close elections, "it's too close to call."

If there are now marketing costs and you assume the studios are making $7-10 a disc, a catalog release in HD DVD can be profitable at silly low volumes. 10,000 titles sold can even be profitable. $100,000 could be more than breakeven with the knowledge that future sales over time bring more money. One could even make the assumption that repressings could be done cheaply or 50,000 units were produced on initial production runs, so their would be no additional costs for additional sales.

The BD camp is betting on software to win and he HD DVD camp on low player pricing. Dead on.