When you buy a DVD player today for 100$, you're not buying a DVD player.


In some cases you're buying DVD, DVD+/-R, CD, SACD, DivX, .. etc

You purchase it as a DVD player, but get the rest as hidden features that most either don't know about or care about. It just works out that way.



Hypothetically speaking, say BD wins. Odds are in the next few years there would be a trickling variety of both players and combo to appease all format adopters.


Eventually budget players would become the norm and exlcusively marketed as BD players, though if the trend continues, HD-DVD would and should very well be a 'feature' on these players.

Personally I don't see it happening anyother way. Royalties would essentially be minimal as Toshiba would probably rather have its format survive in memory/legacy than die off. And using the same blue diode with a variable frequency/optic could essentially read both and utilize the same hardware.


I think I was most worried about losing a collection of movies on either side of the divide, but in this day and age, I really don't see that happening.

Thoughts?

It's still early for both. I think that the hardware available in the future will depend on the software available ... in the future. Let's say BD does win, hypothetically. Then there won't be any more HD movies produced, and HD DVD becomes yet another dead format with no hardware to support it. (DCC, El Caset, 8 track, etc.) Shoot, for how many Laserdiscs were sold in the past, tell me how many manufacturers are still making LD players? :)

Me, myself, and I: I am looking for one to "win" (don't care which), or for more combo players (hopefully someday, DVD-A and SACD will both be provided).

Hmmm, interesting theory JE3146, I haven't really gotten into the debate - too many wing nuts on both sides. But my take is both will survive until media servers dominate as sources, with memory cards or iPod like devices being used for portability instead of discs. So there's merit to your thinking IMO.

It's meaningless to speculate just yet - the market is so small it's impossible to see anything. Despite all the touting from Sony PS3 turned out to be the flop of this generation of game consoles, even with Blu-Ray in it; however PS3 did balance out the sales p[erfectly against HD-DVD despite all the opposite expectations and FUD from the Toshiba camp - but all this together sells a magnitude less than a single C-class noname title released only on DVD.

OTOH I say whoever floods the market with dirt cheap players first, that camp will tilt the market ultimately - the only other thing that could also make some difference if a reasonably priced or even cheap combo player arrives first.

I think the uni players will become the norm, at the very least like you mentioned blue ray players with hd-dvd bonus play back feature (or vice versa).

Dual format will become the norm. I'm waiting on the Sammy. Both of these are going to be around for a long time. Look at eproduct wars. BD and HD DVD are so close and niether has a tremendous foothold.

PS3 can be considered a flop since Sony put these massive expectations on it...6 mil buy Mar. '07....how'd that turnout?

I cannot figure out why so few people seem to be interested in combo players (just look at the lack of posts in these threads.) Unlike the VHS/Beta wars, where it was impractical to have a dual format player, we've already seen that it can be done with Bluray and Hd dvd. Both these horses have too much in the game to abandon it anytime soon, so I believe that combo players are the future.

My prediction for standalone players without figuring in free movie values:

year end 2007: $200-$250 HD DVD players, $450-500 Blu ray, $800 combo
mid 2008: $150 HD DVD, $350 Bu ray and $500 combo
year end 2008: $150 HD dvd, $250-300 Blu ray, $400 combo

Since it will take at least another year or two for either format to become truly mainstream, I think the combo players will eventually catch up and become the logical choice. The current aggressive moves by Tosh and the cheap imports from China that are rumored to be becoming keeps HD DVD very much in the game but Sony's not giving in any time soon. Thus neither format is going anywhere in the next several years. So with the combos, we'll get to be like DVD -/+R, and we can move on and buy whatever we want.

If universal relented, would there be a need for a combo?

I'm considering the samsung dual-format player this winter.

I see dual-format as a win-win.

One thing not often mentioned in this war vs. other wars is that the major players own all the content. There is no way HD-DVD can win outright because Sony owns, what, half the movies out there, and there is no way Sony will cave in. I also don't see BD winning outright becasue nobody wants to give Sony all their money. Disney only cares about profits and will go with whatever brings them the most profit.

Plus, it has been proven that dual players can be manufactured, so it's merely an engineering problem. So far, technology has always won out over ideology. My vote goes to the engineers! So if dual-format wins, everybody wins.

Doug

I agree with the OP. Let's have a few educated guesses here.

This Christmas, the war won't be over. HD DVD players will be $199 and BD $399 - msrp. Dual format will be $499. That's the price of BD + 50% the price of HD DVD. I might be wrong, but I doubt those figures will be too far out.

Christmas '08. Most likely no-one has 'won'. Sony ABSOLUTELY WILL NOT GIVE IN, unless they have zero choice. Ditto MS, if you know anything about Bill Gates.

Player prices have halved. HD DVD players for $99. BD for $199. Dual-format for $249. And there are people out there - influential, early-adopting movers and shakers, with massive HD DVD collections which won't play on BD players. And vice versa people with large BD collections. And, of course, those with large collections of both.

What are you going to buy for your 2nd player? HD DVD + BD? Or dual format?

Remember, dual-format gives you access to all the other side's exclusive libraries.

Player prices will tumble. It wouldn't suprise me if dual format player sales overtook single-format players, and their dual format chips actually became cheaper to produce than single format chips.

In short, the only way dual-format players won't win is if one side beats the other before player prices drop low enough.

And even then there's a pretty reasonable chance that new 'BD' players will actually include HD DVD functionality - if only to encourage those with large HD DVD collections to swap sides. Or vice versa if HD DVD 'beats' BD.

Steve W

What are you going to buy for your 2nd player? HD DVD + BD? Or dual format?

Steve W

All good points, but let's make this easy. To anyone reading this:

How many people do you know have two or more 'shiny disc' players hooked up to the same system or display and actually use them? Limit this to yourself and people you know.

I can't think of a single person, and neither do I have more than one player hooked up to any single system.

So if this is the case (and I suspect it is true in the vast majority of cases), why should the model now support two players?

Doug

Every store and Internet store out there will want a single format to win: There will be a lot of pressure for the market to select one and only one winner to stop this dual inventory nonsense. Unfortunately, a winner may not be known for years, to the detriment of HD video on shiny discs.

If the 2 sides fight each other to a draw, and player prices drop enough, the answer is very simple.

Come to and agreement to call them 'High Def Disc'. Re-launch it as one format, with a simple phrase like "Any disc will play on any player".

End of customer confusion.

In the UK there has been some discussion on news channels about the format war. I'm sure they'd want to give space to a story about how a format war has ended.

The format war is only bad as long as customers are confused. A dual-format player gives the two sides the chance to completely remove the confusion. If all players play both BD & HD DVD, there is no confusion.

Steve W

Every store and Internet store out there will want a single format to win: There will be a lot of pressure for the market to select one and only one winner to stop this dual inventory nonsense. Unfortunately, a winner may not be known for years, to the detriment of HD video on shiny discs.

I stopped in at my local small-town Blockbuster and asked if they were carrying any hd discs yet, either Bluray or HD-DVD. They didn't, and the pimply-faced kid behind the counter only knew of Bluray. He either hadn't heard of HD-DVD, or if he did thought it meant Bluray. I think Bluray may have the edge with name recognition, because J6P will be confused by the similarity between DVD and HD-DVD, whereas he know that Bluray means high definition (if he knows what that means at all).

The manager said they weren't going to carry anything until they were sure high def discs were viable, and said she didn't want to go through the Laserdisc thing again.

Of course this is part of the chicken/egg problem. I am not inclined to buy an hd player (and a combo unit is the only sensible choice) until I can rent discs locally. And they aren't going to rent hd discs until people have players for them. And I can certainly see the double-whammy for the rental stores of a new, uncommon format that also comes in two different standards. (That's the great thing about standards - there are so many to choose from!)

Until the scenario of taking any hi-def disc and putting it in a player becomes the norm, millions of people (including myself) will simply not buy. After reading BD and HD-DVD forums, one would think their very lives depended on who won, and you never see mention of dual-format players. It's ridiculous.

My local Hollywood Video and Best Buy both have a good selection of both formats. I think the cat is out of the bag. There are now too many movies released in both formats. If one side did win, what would the retail channel do with all the existing copies from the losing side? After retail got burned by 8-track/cassette, quad/stereo, VHS/Beta, LD/Divx, SACD and DVD-A, etc., the studios could make a lot real enemies if they insist on dragging this out without a one format or one player solution. I'm already at the point where I just don't really care who wins, but I'm not buying until any hi-def movie I want will play in my player.

Logic and common sense would dictate dual-format players as quickest solution (but when did common sense ever win out in the marketplace?) The technology is now proven. Once everyone has dual-format players, the marketplace can decide which format is better in its own time.

Doug

History is laden with different formats co-existing successfully. LP's, audio cassette's, and 8 track tape, co-existed for many years. It was the compact disk that finally spelled the demise of these formats. And although greatly reduced, LP's are still widely used, and in some circles preferred.

Since both HD discs formats are the same size, and can be played in a single unit, I believe that both formats will most likely co-exist for a long time. In fact, there might not ever be a 'winner'. Dual format players will simply become the norm and the studio's will be the one's who decide which formats they wish to put their films on. And as long as different studios have a stake in a particular format, then that's the format they will continue to use, and we will continue to have 2 HD formats.