i don't remember dvd taking this long to come down in price

probably never since the mfg will have to pay some hefty licensing fees for both bd and hd-dvd.

probably never since the mfg will have to pay some hefty licensing fees for both bd and hd-dvd.

then one is going to fail

i doubt either format will fail but whichever format can offer more content as technology progresses will be widely adopted by everyday consumers. you can consider that a win/failure. however, by that time, another "super" HD format will be introduced and we'll all be forced to buy new players just to be in the know. look at the lifecycles/timelines with VHS/beta and DVD. having a choice is a good thing for us and backwards compatibility is a must. without that, no one will buy in on it.

i don't remember dvd taking this long to come down in price

HD-DVD was launched just a little over a year ago. One year into DVD's lifespan, you weren't going to find a $300 player anywhere.

Don't worry, this is par for the course. I'm actually surprised the prices are dropping as fast as they are.

HD-DVD was launched just a little over a year ago. One year into DVD's lifespan, you weren't going to find a $300 player anywhere.

Don't worry, this is par for the course. I'm actually surprised the prices are dropping as fast as they are.

i can't remember the exact day dvd players hit the stores but i bought my first one in march of 1997 for $499 at the wiz

i believe a year later there were under $300 models, way under in fact

dvd had a problem that first year with the whole dvd/divx BS

the new HD formats have one advantage over the roll-out of DVD, people have been buying HDTV's for over 10 years now and have been waiting for something better than DVD to come out, nobody was waiting for DVD

It's easy to imagine both formats under $300 each by Christmas. (HDDVD is already there). I suppose Q1 2009 should be doable target date for a $300 dual format player.

It's easy to imagine both formats under $300 each by Christmas. (HDDVD is already there). I suppose Q1 2009 should be doable target date for a $300 dual format player.


I'd bet a push for Q4 2008 for a 299$ dual format on some select sales.. probably mainstream standard pricing in Q2 2009.

I'd bet a push for Q4 2008 for a 299$ dual format on some select sales.. probably mainstream standard pricing in Q2 2009.

I think that's a pretty good estimate the way things are progressing. Over time, I expect to see many, if not most next gen HD disc players go dual format. The founding members of each format will be the last to 'turn', but presuming dual format players sell well, they won't (eventually) have a choice . . . they'll follow the money. Once a significant portion of players are dual format, over time (say, 2-4 years) I think you'll see studio migration to the low cost to produce (both in terms of encoding and IME and actual fixed and variable production costs) format. I don't know which format that will be, but right now it looks like HD DVD (granted a lot could change in the next 2-4 years). Think about it, if you're a [insert format here] exclusive studio, or a format neutral studio, and something like 66% or 75% of the consuming public has a dual format player, and you can produce format A a bit more cheaply than format B . . . pretty simple NPV calculation to figure out if the 1/3 or 1/4 of the market you're kissing goodbye is worth less or more than the cost savings of going single format. I don't pretend to know what that inflection point actually IS, but rest assured that if it is there, studios will make the choice.

I think that's a pretty good estimate the way things are progressing. Over time, I expect to see many, if not most next gen HD disc players go dual format. The founding members of each format will be the last to 'turn', but presuming dual format players sell well, they won't (eventually) have a choice . . . they'll follow the money. Once a significant portion of players are dual format, over time (say, 2-4 years) I think you'll see studio migration to the low cost to produce (both in terms of encoding and IME and actual fixed and variable production costs) format. I don't know which format that will be, but right now it looks like HD DVD (granted a lot could change in the next 2-4 years). Think about it, if you're a [insert format here] exclusive studio, or a format neutral studio, and something like 66% or 75% of the consuming public has a dual format player, and you can produce format A a bit more cheaply than format B . . . pretty simple NPV calculation to figure out if the 1/3 or 1/4 of the market you're kissing goodbye is worth less or more than the cost savings of going single format. I don't pretend to know what that inflection point actually IS, but rest assured that if it is there, studios will make the choice.

You're right, but the big hanchos will still push for the technical edge(bandwidth/disc size) to sell discs.... aka Disney and POTC/Apacolypto. That and Sony would never give up releasing on its own discs.

Then theres the whole debate of whether or not BD+ will work, and IF it does, then that'll be a big seller for a lot of people.

Still too soon to tell what the effect of dual format players would bring.

I jumped on the $350 Costco deal (now refunded to $250) for the Toshiba HD DVD player. I, too, was waiting for the sub-$300 player, but at least this gives me HD goodness for a couple of years while I'm waiting.

I, too, bought a 2nd gen Sony DVD player for $525 (mid 1998). Granted it was expensive, but it had more features than your $50 player of today. Equivalent featured players could still be found back in 2005 for about $150. So give it some time, the lower prices will come (assuming the format catches on and the consumer sees a value in upgrading)

I, too, bought a 2nd gen Sony DVD player for $525 (mid 1998). Granted it was expensive, but it had more features than your $50 player of today. Equivalent featured players could still be found back in 2005 for about $150.

which features?

which features?

built in dolby decoder with analog outs -- along with digital out, a jog shuttle dial and the ability to play SACD's. There were probably more, but I sold it about 2 years ago.

It was the "mid-line" offered at the time. I just wish they still made the jog-shuttle remote for all DVD / High Definition players :(

I remember one with similar features selling about 2 years ago for around $150.

i can't remember the exact day dvd players hit the stores but i bought my first one in march of 1997 for $499 at the wiz

i believe a year later there were under $300 models, way under in fact

dvd had a problem that first year with the whole dvd/divx BS

the new HD formats have one advantage over the roll-out of DVD, people have been buying HDTV's for over 10 years now and have been waiting for something better than DVD to come out, nobody was waiting for DVD

As a counter to that, I believe a few small number of people have been waiting for something better than DVD to come out. DVD is an will continue to be perfectly fine for 99% of consumers. The advent up upscaling DVD players has given a big boost to the lifespan of DVD.

Heck even this week, I came home to find my kids watching the Santa Clause on the HD-A1 I have, and I thought it was a HD Broadcast from the Satellite. The upscaling capabilities now make the picture from a DVD almost as good as a Satellite HD Broadcast. Granted it's not HD DVD/BD quality, but boy was I confused for a while.

The incremental difference on well encoded movies (Superbit etc) is to small for most people to care about. They have Big 16:9 TV's that look great with good DVD's, and they are happy.


So I'd say 1% of the DVD viewing public was waiting for HD DVD/BD, the rest are perfectly fine. IMHO

At least a year if not more.

built in dolby decoder with analog outs -- along with digital out, a jog shuttle dial and the ability to play SACD's. There were probably more, but I sold it about 2 years ago.


I don't think it played back SACD in 1998, SACD was luanched in 1999 and the players where very high dollar at the time of luanch.

The incremental difference on well encoded movies (Superbit etc) is to small for most people to care about. They have Big 16:9 TV's that look great with good DVD's, and they are happy.


So I'd say 1% of the DVD viewing public was waiting for HD DVD/BD, the rest are perfectly fine. IMHO
I totally agree here, I got rid of my Sony Wega 60” RPTV for an InFocus SP5000 Projector and on my screen (136”x58” Scope) I can see the astounding difference in HD content over standard DVD. However my father in law has a very nice Samsung 42” DLP RPTV and a Samsung up scaling player with HDMI connection and he is perfectly happy with it at the moment. When I told him that I got a HD-A2 for $299 he was interested but he didn’t jump in the car and drive 2 hours round trip to get one like I did.
My point is that his 42” TV is considered large by most people’s standards but you really have to get much bigger than that to “NEED” HD content. I am not saying that HD content is not enjoyable on a screen of that size, I am just saying that a person like my father in law who has the resources and loves his TV is not even a fence sitter at this point in the game, he doesn’t even care.

Do the current dual format units output 1080i from the HD Discs over componet?? Last I read was that it was going to be up to the content provider if the output would be downrezzed.....is that still the case, and if so, how many discs are out there that force a downrez??

I think our first opportunity for a dual format player at that price will be the 1st Gen LG on ebay later this year.

I don't think you will ever see a player with a $300 MSRP, although closed out versions of the players being released this year should be available for that amount by mid 2008.

I don't think you will ever see a player with a $300 MSRP, although closed out versions of the players being released this year should be available for that amount by mid 2008.

You are right and your computer will never need more than 640KB of memory, either :eek:

If I learned anything in life, it is never say never. You can pick up a DVD / VCR for under $70 now.....15 years ago VCR's were nearly $300.

You are right and your computer will never need more than 640KB of memory, either :eek:

If I learned anything in life, it is never say never. You can pick up a DVD / VCR for under $70 now.....15 years ago VCR's were nearly $300.

Except that VHS and DVD were both succesful formats, hence backwards compatibility was tacked into combo machines for years, allowing prices to fall further. Despite the rose-coloured glasses syndrome by some, it's looking like the format war will be resolved prior to significant market penetration by the losing format, so there won't be a reason to make combo players in a year or two. Hence we won't see a $300 MSRP player, although I'm sure one will be able to get dual format players for cheap off of ebay.

I totally agree here, I got rid of my Sony Wega 60” RPTV for an InFocus SP5000 Projector and on my screen (136”x58” Scope) I can see the astounding difference in HD content over standard DVD. However my father in law has a very nice Samsung 42” DLP RPTV and a Samsung up scaling player with HDMI connection and he is perfectly happy with it at the moment. When I told him that I got a HD-A2 for $299 he was interested but he didn’t jump in the car and drive 2 hours round trip to get one like I did.
My point is that his 42” TV is considered large by most people’s standards but you really have to get much bigger than that to “NEED” HD content. I am not saying that HD content is not enjoyable on a screen of that size, I am just saying that a person like my father in law who has the resources and loves his TV is not even a fence sitter at this point in the game, he doesn’t even care.

I am 25 and really like working with technology ect. I have a 42 DLP Samsung which plays backed up 4.7 gb dvds beautifully. I rather save my money for better technologies rather than waste it on an expensive disc format. When nano chips replace movies, then that will be a big jump.

The only advantage bluray has right now is the fact that it can have over 100 gb on a disc. For 200 bucks I would purchase a 100 disc changer that was bluray compatible. To never have to change a dvd again, well that would be worth it.

i don't remember dvd taking this long to come down in price
Not until Blu-Ray standalones come down under $300.

My first CD player cost $700, my first VCR, betamax, was over a grand.

So $600 for Blu-Ray sounds pretty reasonable to me.

I was under the impression that since HD is expensive to produce, the price of most HD products would stay relatively high until production costs come down.

I remember Pioneer coming out with the first mass market universal CD/DVD/SACD/DVD-A player in 2002 for $1200. A year later, they came out with one for $250. Who knows, maybe it'll happen again. One can only hope.

Does anybody remember the 60" sony Grand Vega HDTV for $9,000 just one year ago? Now it's less than $2500.
I know it's a different electronic device. But my point is, when the cost of manufacturing the parts inside the device start to drop, then the prices will really plummit. And add to that the fact that XBOX wants to sell the 360 for $199 if possible, and Sony want's to drop the PS3 price to compete with current HD-DVD players, and I have a feeling some of these devices will be at great prices before the end of the year.
I am really really hoping the Samsung dual player is out before November. Because if ANYBODY has a "day after Thansgiving sale" on that bad boy, I am ALL OVER IT. I don't care how early I have to get in line. Depending on price of course. But for $500, I'd be all over it.

LOL, what is this? Memory lane..

I am still waiting to get an HD or BD player and the main reason is the cost of owning both. I would jump on an affordable dual format player for the fact of not having to worry which format the movie you want to get is in. I think if affordable dual format players become the norm many more would be sold at which point who cares which format wins they can both exist for all I'm concerned.

This time next year you probably won't have to worry about getting both, and this forum will be for people transitioning from the losing format without having to give up the software they purchased.

I'm on record as predicting next Christmas for the $300 dual format player. That is what ends the war...

I agree with above, Black Friday next year. I also agree that this will make the war obsolete at that point.

I have been thinking holiday season '08 for some time now. Definatly by holiday season '09.

Next year. If this new Samsung one will debut next month and ships within a month as well at its rumored €400 price point then I say even this Christmas isn't totally out of question (e.g. promo sale etc).

I'm on record as predicting next Christmas for the $300 dual format player. That is what ends the war...

Your optomism is interesting. The DF player from Samsung will be released in November in the $799 to $999 price range because:

Samsung just announced the pricing for it's 2 new players:

BP - 1400 - $549

BP- 2400 - $649

So you tell me how a DF player is going to be priced the same? To think otherwise is ignoring the facts.

All you are posting is wishful thinking.

I have predicted since this began that Christmas 08 sees a $300 dually.

I'll throw in my two cents here. First of all, I remember attending CES a few years ago, predicting under $2000 720p DLP projectors in the next year, and being told by several senior AVS members there was no way prices would fall that fast. Guess what, I was right and then some.

I think a lot of A/V forum members tend to be early adopters. They pay top dollar for just released technologies. When someone suggests prices will fall fast, they post otherwise in defense of their recent expensive purchases. So yeah, the guys who just spent $6000 on a projector didn't want to believe models with the same (or even an improved) DLP chip would be available in a year or so for a third as much. The same is true now for some of those who recently spent $1000 on a HD or Blu Ray player.

Oddly the same mentality also works against technology advances. I remember singing the early praises of DVI/HDMI here and suggesting folks consider waiting to get equipment that could handle it. Again, I was told rather harshly that component video was here to stay for many years and a safe purchase. Yet it's already disappearing and/or handicapped in many source devices.

My opinion on HD-DVD and Blu Ray pricing is it must continue to fall fast or the formats will die. Both have a limited time window to get some critical mass in the marketplace or they will literally be replaced by other distribution methods. For those of you who think that's not possible, it's happened many times before.

LaserDisc had only a "cult" following and was killed by DVD. And D-VHS had an even smaller following. Ditto SACD and DVD-Audio. Those formats were only purchased by serious A/V geeks and there was never enough of a market to justify widespread release of content. It's a well known "chicken and egg" problem and without lots of content the formats die or get pushed to the back burner.

And just like SACD and DVD-Audio were originally intended to replace the CD. HD-DVD and Blu Ray are supposed to replace the DVD. But just like with music, the CD ended up being killed by other distribution methods (i.e. MP3, subscription music, iTunes, etc.). The same could happen to the DVD.

In addition to the above hurdles, dual competing formats, as has been well discussed, creates another serious disadvantage. So a dual format player is needed to get both formats onto a comparable playing field with the other options that are coming.

I'm not worried about the hardware being cheap. If demand is there, new custom chips and China Inc will bring prices way down. I'm sure many said you could never buy something as complex as a digital camera or MP3 player for $15 but you can now. If licensing costs are the issue, I suspect the respective organizations will lower those as necessary to help the formats survive.

The main issue here is the phrase "if demand is there". Without lots of content there won't be much demand for the hardware so prices won't fall fast enough. And if this stew stays on simmer long enough, other options will come along to deliver HD content and both formats will go the way of D-VHS.

The main issue here is the phrase "if demand is there". Without lots of content there won't be much demand for the hardware so prices won't fall fast enough. And if this stew stays on simmer long enough, other options will come along to deliver HD content and both formats will go the way of D-VHS.

I perused the Blu-Ray and HD-DVD racks at the local Frys. There was nothing I felt compelled to purchase.

There has to be lots more content before I feel that I am missing something. I am sure there will be more content forthcoming, but right now I don't feel like I am missing much. Personally, I only have 4 HD disks on the shelf complementing about 350 SD disks. One is the HD version of Animal House. The only reason I have it, is because it is one of my top 5 favorite movies.

The picture quailty is outstanding, but the content just isn't compelling yet. Sure there are some great titles out, but is the average person going to spend big bucks on a player just to watch a dozen movies? (Other than AVS nuts that is)

My 2 cents is that the dual format player can only help the HD disk market, and the user won't have to worry what color the disks are.

i can't remember the exact day dvd players hit the stores but i bought my first one in march of 1997 for $499 at the wiz

i believe a year later there were under $300 models, way under in fact


I don't quite remember them being that low in 1998. Maybe by 1999 or 2000. I was shopping for one around that time.

I perused the Blu-Ray and HD-DVD racks at the local Frys. There was nothing I felt compelled to purchase.

Same here. I really, really want HD, but there's hardly anything I care about that's on either high-definition disk format! I'm not going to buy a movie just because it's high definition, if I'm not interested in that movie!

A lot of content in my DVD collection would not benefit from HD disks because the original source material is too old or not produced in a high enough quality. Other DVDs I own are too obscure to be released on HD disks. And the movies that I most care about owning in high definition (Star Wars, Lion King) aren't going to be released any time soon.

BD and HD-DVD have only been out for a year and the prices for players of both formats have dropped to around 1/2 the original price ($499 to $299 for HD-DVD and $999 to $499 for BD). This is not much different that what happened with DVD players when first introduced a decade ago. I purchased a 1st generation Toshiba DVD player for $500 in 1997. I don't believe we saw sub-$200 DVD players until the first Apex model came on the seen in late 1999 (and more widely availabe in 2000).

I hope you're right . . . I'm a buyer for dual format at around $500.

If DF gains mass acceptance I think it bodes ill for BR. Why? If you're a studio, why produce content in a format that is more costly to author in and replicate in? Over time, I could see the majority of titles migrating to HD DVD and only those titles that really need 50 GB or high bitrates getting produced in BR50. Just a thought.

I hope you're right . . . I'm a buyer for dual format at around $500.
Samsung's was just announced at about twice that price. You may need to wait a bit longer.

Samsung's was just announced at about twice that price. You may need to wait a bit longer.


Yeah I could not believe the price on that Samsung! Heck you can buy both a Blu-ray and a HD DVD player for less money. Even at a street price of $850 you have to wonder where did all the money go in this unit, was it the HQV video selectable up-conversion processing? This unit is not for your average BB or CC buyer.

This player is niche at best.

Prices continue to drop as I expected, HD is $200 and BR is $400 at this point. By Christmas this year, you'll likely see an HD player at $169 on sale, and a $369 BR player. Hell, you could create a unit with two separate drive mechanisms with just a shared playback setup for $549. Expect next year to show a $99 or $129 HD player, and a $249 BR player. If someone gets off their kiester, they can easily put a $300 player out the door next December.

"One picture is worth a thousand words"

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x66/LeeAStewart/dvds.jpg

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x66/LeeAStewart/samsung-BD-UP5000_overhead-.jpg

To answer the OP's question, given the $1,049 msrp on the new Samsung it looks like <$300 is going to take a LONG time to arrive. Good luck at that price.

Well, it looks like holiday's next year, I was hoping for Q1 or Q2 '08.

To answer the OP's question, given the $1,049 msrp on the new Samsung it looks like <$300 is going to take a LONG time to arrive. Good luck at that price.

I'm not sure about that. Keep in mind that at this point it is basically a Premium product entering a market with virtually no competition. There is only 1 sorta combo player out right now that doesn't support all of hd-dvd's features. Once these MFGs milk all the money they can out of the premium market and more competition starts to show up prices will drop quickly. Since the drive and codecs and everything are so similar and can be shared most of the cost in combo players comes from developing the software and software prices can drop very quickly once the development has been payed for.

But what about the REAL question??? Who cares about the price of a player? I want to know when we'll see a recorder in either format for $300. I don't care about either of these formats until then!

I'm not sure about that. Keep in mind that at this point it is basically a Premium product entering a market with virtually no competition. There is only 1 sorta combo player out right now that doesn't support all of hd-dvd's features. Once these MFGs milk all the money they can out of the premium market and more competition starts to show up prices will drop quickly. Since the drive and codecs and everything are so similar and can be shared most of the cost in combo players comes from developing the software and software prices can drop very quickly once the development has been payed for.
I think that the format war will be over before we see cheaper dual players.

But what about the REAL question??? Who cares about the price of a player? I want to know when we'll see a recorder in either format for $300. I don't care about either of these formats until then!

Nice talking to you then....I doubt we'll ever see a stand alone recorder with a tuner. I think we will see a stand alone DVD recorder that can pass a 1080p signal for output, but record a 480i/p signal by next year.

Yes a recorder with either BD or HD DVD with a 500GB hard drive would be nice...but I don't think we'll ever see it in the USA. They are already available overseas.

Just one example:
http://www.trendygadget.com/2007/06/12/hd-dvd-recorder-with-hard-disk-storage-toshiba-vardia-rd-a600j-a300j/

Yes a recorder with either BD or HD DVD with a 500GB hard drive would be nice...but I don't think we'll ever see it in the USA. They are already available overseas.


Yes, I agree there are limited offerings overseas for such an item, but they are still incredibly expensive. I don't see the logic in your statement. Why would not the technology march forward and prices drop over time to see an inexpensive HD recorder. We already have D-VHS recorders. Disc-based units seem inevitable. If they don't eventually show up, I think it would only be because neither HD-DVD or BR ever really catch on. Which granted, is a possibility.

looks like it might be sooner than most thought :)

LOL, what is this? Memory lane..

I paid $999 for my first VHS player. It was made by panasonic but re-badged JC Penny

I also Paid $999 (must be a magic number) for my first printer in the 80's. It was a one of the first HP inkjets. If you wanted to print 20 pages you could go have lunch and come back and it might still be printing.

Anyone complaining about the high of cost of cutting edge electronics needs a reality check.

I paid $999 for my first VHS player. It was made by panasonic but re-badged JC Penny

I also Paid $999 (must be a magic number) for my first printer in the 80's. It was a one of the first HP inkjets. If you wanted to print 20 pages you could go have lunch and come back and it might still be printing.

Anyone complaining about the high of cost of cutting edge electronics needs a reality check.

i paid 1200 for my first vcr

750 for my first hi-fi vcr

650 for my first sony vcr with a flying erase head

1000 for my first vhs-c camcorder

1000 for my first sony hi-8 with night mode

1000 for my 2nd sony DVD player in 97

5000 for the first pentium computer

5000 for the first 1 ghz pentium computer

not complaining, just noticed it's taking hd optical much longer to drop in price than dvd did

I think its likey sometime mid '08 as the new Samsung combo player is expected to come out at $799 and given recent trend it will drop to 1/2 that or even less in 6 months.

The LG BH100 is $699 on Amazon (http://www.amazon.com/LG-BH100-High-definition-Blu-ray-player/dp/B000QDDZPI/)

We have seen the reports that Walmart and others will have HD DVD for $99...starting now I think.

For this price I will buy one and then wait for a dual format at less than $300 :cool:

There are still a lot of movies that are on BD that I would want...so a dual format is going to be necessary (unless BD dies) ;)

Apparently Oppo is very interested in making a dual-format HD player, they're simply waiting for parts prices to get to a level where making a reasonably priced player would be possible. If anyone could do it right at a more than acceptable price point, it would be Oppo!

If Oppo end up making a dual format player, AND it includes SACD and DVD-Audio playback, and it is reasonably priced, I'll be in A/V heaven! Of course, I'm asking for too much! A reasonably priced dual format player would be quite nice.