If Microsoft has its way, DVD, Blu-Ray Disc and HD DVD will all be rendered obsolete within 10 years, according to Richard Doherty, Microsoft's program manager for Media Entertainment Convergence.

“I don't know that [HD] will be delivered on an optical disc in five years,” he said, pointing to downloads and broadband delivery. If Microsoft has its way, DVD, Blu-Ray Disc and HD DVD will all be rendered obsolete within 10 years, according to Richard Doherty, Microsoft's program manager for Media Entertainment Convergence.

“I don't know that [HD] will be delivered on an optical disc in five to 10 years,” he said, pointing to downloads and broadband delivery. [B]“At Microsoft, we'd rather it wasn't [on a disc]."

Doherty later added: “this will be the last optical [home entertainment] generation. If this one survives."

Hey, that should make HD-DVD fans feel good! That's right... Microsoft, one of HD-DVD's few major corporate supporters, is ALREADY counting on the format's demise. IF this one survives?! Are you kidding me?! They don't want it to survive! Microsoft having an in-house "Office of HD-DVD Evangelism" suddenly makes PERFECT sense. What better way for the company to ensure that HD optical discs die, and their own downloading service takes off, than by actively working to perpetuate the confusion of a format war in the "last optical generation"? Ugh. Don't say we didn't warn you, folks. "Oh, but look... HD-DVD players are cheaper right now!" Yeah. Swell. Would you like fries with that download?

Doherty later added: “this will be the last optical [home entertainment] generation. If this one survives."

Hey, that should make HD-DVD fans feel good! That's right... Microsoft, one of HD-DVD's few major corporate supporters, is ALREADY counting on the format's demise. IF this one survives?! Are you kidding me?! They don't want it to survive! Microsoft having an in-house "Office of HD-DVD Evangelism" suddenly makes PERFECT sense. What better way for the company to ensure that HD optical discs die, and their own downloading service takes off, than by actively working to perpetuate the confusion of a format war in the "last optical generation"? Ugh. Don't say we didn't warn you, folks. "Oh, but look... HD-DVD players are cheaper right now!" Yeah. Swell. Would you like fries with that download?

I feel this is important information regarding the stance of HD-DVD's second biggest backer towards HD optical media.

The thread title is a direct quote from a Microsoft high-ranking representative.

I feel this is important information regarding the stance of HD-DVD's second biggest backer towards HD optical media.

The thread title is a direct quote from a Microsoft high-ranking representative.
Isn't he also the AACS spokesman?

Gary

Here is a link to the article which Bill is talking about:

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/index.cfm?sec_id=2

I think it was pretty obvious to most of us that Microsoft was in this for a quick stalemate and to force downloads on consumers. This article just confirms that.

The original article can be found on http://www.homemediamagazine.com.

Microsoft is not the only company that would just as soon see nextgen die. Apple, Comcast, DirecTV, Echostar, AT&T, Verizon, Amazon, Netflix etc. all are looking to see electronic delivery take over.

The studios are becoming increasingly interested. Look at the deals that are being made on a daily basis. Look at the content that is being released to electronic delivery in comparison to the meager allocations to nextgen.

The aforementioned homemediamagazine had an editorial a few weeks ago in which they compared nextgen to the Titanic. The sense is beginning to develop that nextgen is a costly venture with no ROI while electronic delivery is the next source of revenue increases.

If we want to have a high-quality, collectable hard media format, now is the time to support an end to the format war.

If we want to have a high-quality, collectable hard media format, now is the time to support an end to the format war.

Better yet, don't support downloads ... it's that simple.

What's the news here, apart from Krinkle trying to raise yet another flame fest? Sony has been saying the same for a while now. Remember? "PlayStation 4 to ship without an optical drive" and all that? Besides,

DVD, Blu-Ray Disc and HD DVD will all be rendered obsolete within 10 years, according to Richard Doherty
Important bit in bold. What's the expected life span of PS3 platform? How about... 5-10 years?

The problem is... HDD is way less reliable than Media CD. In 10 year, 4 HDD die on me...in 15 year of CD base media, only 2 have developped Rot...

Bandwitdh cost a lot too... currently here in montreal, the basic package is 40$ is to 20gb down TOP

I feel this is important information regarding the stance of HD-DVD's second biggest backer towards HD optical media.

The thread title is a direct quote from a Microsoft high-ranking representative.

Since I work in the software space as well, let me put a little perspective in here....

1. I see them as stating what they think their vision for content distribution will be. What will be v. what is, are not the same. Any company that hope to succed will have to work within the confines of current reality. The failure of HD formats does not automatically make downloadable content succeed. That is NOT how things work!

2. A program manager in a software company is NOT a high ranking officer! This is not NASA :)

3. Not just MSFT but even Sony is pushing for downloadable content in future, this is an industry trend that everyone seems to be pushing for.... but it isn't ready for prime time yet. In the end consumers say what they prefer, not providers of technology...

4. The Digital Bits is quickly becoming the National Equirer of AV News. I read about an Editor of some gossip magazine was pissed off at Angelina Jolie so they keep publishing articles about how Brad Pitt is about to leave her and go back to his former wife or whatever....week in and week out. The Digital Bits reminds me of this type of journalism....a shame really for a site that at one time was supposed to be credible. Unfortunately by the time I found out about them, they were already in the gutter :eek:

4. The DigitalBits is known for

The part that worries me is when he said, "if this [optical generatiion] survives," as if it were of no consequence.

Here is a link to the article which Bill is talking about:

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/index.cfm?sec_id=2

I think it was pretty obvious to most of us that Microsoft was in this for a quick stalemate and to force downloads on consumers. This article just confirms that.

Very true. If MS wins we'll be stuck with crappy hardware and vastly inferior downloads.

Better yet, don't support downloads ... it's that simple.

Agreed. I don't do downloads, and won't unless there is absolutely NO choice for purchased hard media. Frankly, it would take years of having no access before I would relent to using dowloads. I don't use it for music now, and have no plans to.

The part that worries me is when he said, "if this [optical generatiion] survives," as if it were of no consequence.
I think you're projecting the "as if it were of no consequence" part. It was a comment taken out of context - they didn't even bother to quote his entire sentence.

No, I think it's more likely that he was just being honest about the uncertainty of the format(s.) There's no guarantee that HD DVD will survive, which is what he basically said. To claim otherwise would be dishonest and unrealistic. As to whether or not it's of any consequence to MS, it was not mentioned. What was mentioned is that they hope that after this gen - in 5-10 years - that the market moves toward (and is dominated by) downloads, rather than optical media.

Very true. If MS wins we'll be stuck with crappy hardware and vastly inferior downloads.

Yes, so support the disc based HD solution of your choice. Otherwise all hail the onset of HD Lite.

The thread started by joshd2012 on this same flame-bait topic was deleted not a half hour ago, and another troll thread gets posted by another fanboy !! You guys can't give it a rest, can you? :rolleyes:

Apple is on BDA's board of directors, but hasn't yet released a Mac with Blu-Ray drive, and is prepping it's own movie download (VoD) service complementing its already hugely successful iTMS service. Is Apple playing the double game too? Or are they too insignificant compared to Microsoft to make a difference in this issue?

Anybody who thinks HD movie downloads will not take off [if not become the defacto delivery medium] in 5 to 10 years needs to remove the head out of the sand. This will happen with or without Microsoft joining the fray. Microsoft is doing the only sensible thing in pushing for forward-looking technology with VC-1 and advanced audio codecs that don't need mammoth bandwidth requirements for home media networking [over wireless]. HD-DVD so happened to be the party more interested in this vision, and hence got the support of not just Microsoft, but also Intel and HP. Not withstanding my preference for having all movies/music on physical media, I would not want to be transmitting 50GB movies with 40+ Mbps peak rate requirements over my home network.

I hope the mods send this nonsense of a thread to join its sibling at the bottom of the can. This thread will serve no purpose other than devolving into another fanboy slugfest.

The part that worries me is when he said, "if this [optical generatiion] survives," as if it were of no consequence.
It is very much in question whether this generation will win out over the previous generation, DVD. And the only way this generation will win out over DVD is if the pricing comes down, both for the hardware and software. If this generation turns out to be nothing more than a niche format, then it wouldn't be of much consequence to the studios or Microsoft, would it? The format war or the lack thereof is NOT going to determine whether the this generation is a niche. The availability of under $100 players and cheap ($10-$15) software will determine that.

But let's focus on the format war between HD DVD and BD, because we all have our petty agendas!!!

The problem is... HDD is way less reliable than Media CD. In 10 year, 4 HDD die on me...in 15 year of CD base media, only 2 have developped Rot...

Bandwitdh cost a lot too... currently here in montreal, the basic package is 40$ is to 20gb down TOP

Possible they're thinking of solid state hard drives & increases in bandwidth and decreases of costs to both.

The thread started by JoshHDxxxxx on this same flame-bait topic was deleted not a half hour ago, and another troll thread gets posted by another fanboy !! You guys can't give it a rest, can you? :rolleyes:


The topic is not flamebait. A thread on the topic could, if worded in an inflammatory way. However, both the thread title and the body of the initial post are pretty aseptic.

From the article ( if Krinkle summarized it):

"Microsoft...will be rendered obsolete within...years"

and regarding Microsofts possible plans on genocide:

"This will be the last...generation. If this one survives"

The topic is not flamebait. A thread on the topic could, if worded in an inflammatory way. However, both the thread title and the body of the initial post are pretty aseptic.


except that the title of the thread omitted:

“I don't know that [HD] will be delivered on an optical disc in five to 10 years,” he said, pointing to downloads and broadband delivery

lending a more somber tone to it...

DOwnloadable content means more profit since you don't need to deal with packaging and disc replication. Of course the companies are going to be for that. It makes things much easier and allows for more profit. I would have no problem with the games only being available for download. It won't make a difference since it will play the same as from the optical media. Plus I won't have to worry about removing those crappy stickers off the boxes to open it or having storage space for the case.

The topic is not flamebait. A thread on the topic could, if worded in an inflammatory way. However, both the thread title and the body of the initial post are pretty aseptic.

The flamebait is not in how civilizedly he worded his post, but rather what meaning he is trying to impart to the quoted comments. If you try to portray that MS is the only company trying to get a leg up over the competition if and when the download era comes about, you are hopelessly deluded. There is no use in lynching MS for preparing for the inevitable future, anymore than Apple or Sony. You all just wait for Sony to turn on movie and music downloads via PSN, and we'll take up this topic again.

DOwnloadable content means more profit since you don't need to deal with packaging and disc replication. Of course the companies are going to be for that. It makes things much easier and allows for more profit. I would have no problem with the games only being available for download. It won't make a difference since it will play the same as from the optical media. Plus I won't have to worry about removing those crappy stickers off the boxes to open it or having storage space for the case.

think it would make it easier for them to "fight" piracy too?

think it would make it easier for them to "fight" piracy too?

Another positive aspect of downloadable content! I'm all for it! As long as the experience from downloadable content is the same as from the disc, which it should be for games, the faster it happens the better.
Downlaodable movies are another story though. The downloadable movies don't give you the same experience as from a disc. As soon as it does, I'll be for that too.

Another positive aspect of downloadable content! I'm all for it! As long as the experience from downloadable content is the same as from the disc, which it should be for games, the faster it happens the better.

Unfortunately the only thing we are likely to gain from downloadable content is huge hassles if/when our equipment breaks as well as ass-tastic HD-Lite video quality.

Unfortunately the only thing we are likely to gain from downloadable content is huge hassles if/when our equipment breaks as well as ass-tastic HD-Lite video quality.


Which would be my main worry. If everyone doesn't have blazing fast connections or unlimited HDD space, we'd probably see 720p content with lossy sound. None of this 30mbps video + 6.9mbps lcpm stuff. :(

Unfortunately the only thing we are likely to gain from downloadable content is huge hassles if/when our equipment breaks as well as ass-tastic HD-Lite video quality.

Don't forget that the studios really don't want true "downloadable" content that stays on the drive. Their big thing is streaming it to you via a subscription. If you can get ahold of the file on a pc then you can usually strip out the copy protection. Basically they want a black box attached to you TV that accepts the streamed content and deletes it automatically after the movie finishes. Basically a modified version of VOD that already exists on Cable.

Unfortunately the only thing we are likely to gain from downloadable content is huge hassles if/when our equipment breaks as well as ass-tastic HD-Lite video quality.

Right now on XBL it's 720P content. They can just as easily encode it at 1080P if they wanted too. the XBL content I've seen at 720 P looks very good. It's full 1280x720 content. If they ever start 1080P it will be full 1920x1080 conetent as well. I doubt they would do the 1280x1080 HD-Lite content. And since download speeds are getting faster and faster, eventually it won't take very long to download a 20GB movie for playback.
The whole industry is in flux now. It will take a few years for things to shake out.

Which would be my main worry. If everyone doesn't have blazing fast connections or unlimited HDD space, we'd probably see 720p content with lossy sound. None of this 30mbps video + 6.9mbps lcpm stuff. :(

Exactly why I don't want it, I've experienced what they offer on the 360 and it isn't nearly as good as blu-ray movies (or even HD-DVD).

Having a hard copy of the movies I own is important to me. I fear that downloadable content won't allow that. I also worry the video and audio quality on downloadable content will be lower than what HD optical is currently providing.

We're talking 10 years in the future. I don't see what the big deal is....downloads may succeed or fail, just like any future technology.

Downloadable content simply feels far more disposable to me. Never been a fan of it nor for the potential of micropayments that could ensue for things like extras. The day that physical media for movies/TV dies, then I'm out of the game. I'll find something else to do.

Exactly why I don't want it, I've experienced what they offer on the 360 and it isn't nearly as good as blu-ray movies (or even HD-DVD).

Do you forget that the current service has to be tailored to current networking infrastructure? :rolleyes:

In 5 to 10 years, the internet speeds would at least double, and there shouldn't be any reason to not deliver 1080p movies. The only problem is if you expect to download the bloatware that is 50GB MPEG-2/LPCM encoded movies. AVC, VC-1 and DTHD should get the bitrates and file sizes to a more download friendly size in 5 to 10 years.

In 5 to 10 years, AVphiles could just scramble to collect disc based hi-def hi-rez media just as audiophiles scramble whenever there is a yard sale of LPs.

I feel this is important information regarding the stance of HD-DVD's second biggest backer towards HD optical media.

Both Richard Doherty’s :D are essentially on the same wavelength, they just verbalize it differently.
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10557888&highlight=Richard+Doherty#post10557888

And now hold on for the spin control.

Unfortunately the only thing we are likely to gain from downloadable content is huge hassles if/when our equipment breaks as well as ass-tastic HD-Lite video quality.


Agreed 100%. I am a PQ and AQ fanboy first and foremost.

I cancelled Dish Network a while back when they went to HDlite for all of their channels.

New movies only being released in 720p done with low-bitrate VC-1 and plain vanilla DD for download would be a nightmare come true! Many of us enjoy owning and collecting physical media, and at least to me 40+Mbps video streams, with 7+Mbps 7.1 lossless PCM is perfect.

I watch all my movies at 160" with 1080p front projection. In most dedicated home theaters with quality equipment (like mine) there is a definite perceptual difference!

The real money is in subscription services. What really has the studios and online distributors like MS/Apple licking their chops is the thought of selling someone a $20 a month "subscription" to a movie download service.

Costs are minute and this completely eliminates the brick and mortar retail (and associated promotion costs) from the equation.

As far as quality goes, I've seen what Xbox Live HD downloads have to offer and they don't look anywhere near as good as HD-DVD (they don't even look better than BD movies Brian).

Well, call me old fashioned but I still want to hold the movie in my hand, being able to read the cover, pull it out whenever I feel like watching it, not having to worry about whether my internet connection or satellite/cable is down etc. I'd like to pay for something and keep it..

In the future, just give us the option of content in hand or downloadable. (Whether "in hand" means optical, a memory chip or in a crystal, I don't care :)

PS: A little thing called books has still survived. I believe they have been around for some time...

PS2: Of course Microsoft is interested in the prospect of more profit. Sony probably is thinking the same thing as well. Less overhead (they'll probably use some encrypted p2p scheme where they don't even have to host or pay for lines...let the users/broadband providers pay for that...) plus they can charge you whenever you wish to watch it.

The thread title is a direct quote from a Microsoft high-ranking representative.
He is (or last I heard) Microsoft’s Director of Technology Strategy, Consumer Media Technology Group and.......... may I add a very professional executive, no matter what side of the fence he is currently working on.

Well, call me old fashioned but I still want to hold the movie in my hand, being able to read the cover, pull it out whenever I feel like watching it, not having to worry about whether my internet connection or satellite/cable is down etc. I'd like to pay for something and keep it..

In the future, just give us the option of content in hand or downloadable. (Whether "in hand" means optical, a memory chip or in a crystal, I don't care :)

PS: A little thing called books has still survived. I believe they have been around for some time...

PS2: Of course Microsoft is interested in the prospect of more profit. Sony probably is thinking the same thing as well. Less overhead (they'll probably use some encrypted p2p scheme where they don't even have to host or pay for lines...let the users/broadband providers pay for that...) plus they can charge you whenever you wish to watch it.

Since 95% of the world won't be wired for broadband within the next 10 years hard media will still exist.

DVD is cheap, durable, and easy to distribute. And it's "good enough" for the person with a "small" (smaller than 37") TV.

Do you forget that the current service has to be tailored to current networking infrastructure? :rolleyes:

In 5 to 10 years, the internet speeds would at least double, and there shouldn't be any reason to not deliver 1080p movies. The only problem is if you expect to download the bloatware that is 50GB MPEG-2/LPCM encoded movies. AVC, VC-1 and DTHD should get the bitrates and file sizes to a more download friendly size in 5 to 10 years.

lol, nice edit to add the " :rolleyes:" :p

How many movies have hit 50GB with MPEG-2/LPCM? I don't mind getting rid of MPEG-2 but LPCM has been the most impressive audio codec.

Guys ON Demand Content is happening now. Via Cable and Satellite. DirecTV is going to be able to push ON Demand via Satellite and wired from the same box.

So put in a bigger HD to hold a few HD movies at the standards we have today with VC1. Log into your NF/BB/HV account and schedule your downloads for the next few weeks so they just stream in the backgound all the time and you watch them when ever you like.

So as long as they don't lower the bitrate or quality we get today with VC1, I don't care if I have a physical disk. I'm sure at some point they will allow you to burn a private copy for an additional fee.

I hate waiting for NF to send out the next movie or finding that BB or HV are out. ON Demand fixes that.

Downloadable content eventually will win. However it is important that HD optical does well to heighten competition and force downloadable HD content to offer what we want, and again in my case that's simply quality and portability.

Hasn't this been said before by the same person. And reported here before. Multiple times. And commented on. Multiple times. This is not any groundbreaking news. 10 years in the future we may be downloading our HD content. Stop the presses, are you serious. How can anyone say this. This is CRAZY TALK. Crazy Talk I tell you.

Better yet, don't support downloads ... it's that simple.


Why shouldn't I? I only buy the movies I want to enjoy in HD with repetitive viewing. For movies like Flags/Letters/Freedom writes, I just get the HD version of Xbox Live. They always look and sound great and I don't have to spend a ton for them so really, downloads ARE convenient. As bandwidth increases rapidly it'll become more of a reality. Personally, I can't wait.

As much as I enjoy HD DVD and BR, I certainly know where the future is and from what I've tasted so far, it'll be good!

[QUOTE=derekjsmith]

So as long as they don't lower the bitrate or quality we get today with VC1, I don't care if I have a physical disk. I'm sure at some point they will allow you to burn a private copy for an additional fee.

[QUOTE]

That's just the problem - The sat companies have a horrible trackrecord with messing up quality to save bandwidth. I don't see them suddenly becoming much nicer very soon. They'd rather put out more content (often simply local channels for various markets) than provide even acceptable picture.

I have Dish and the picture looks ok until someone actually moves. OMG the artifacts come popping out.

"At Microsoft, we'd rather it wasn't"..... Do you know how many different scenarios you could end that quote with? And how many more didn't come to fruition?

I'll take a stab at a few:

1, OSX
2, Linux
3, Open Office
4, Word Perfect
5, PlayStation

And on and on..

Considering how careful (almost lifeless) every R.Doherty post here on AVS is (legalese must be his second name), I'm surprised how frank his statements (I presume he is the same R. Doherty as the MS' guy at AACS) quoted on DB are.
Some creative journalism? Wouldn't be sirprised.

Diogen.

DOwnloadable content means more profit since you don't need to deal with packaging and disc replication.

The profit increase comes from the lack of inventory carrying cost, not the duplication cost.

It won't make a difference since it will play the same as from the optical media.

Sure - right up until your hard drive crashes or your burned media degrades to become unreadable.

Downloaded content just isn't a good idea, IMHO. I have LPs from the 50s and 60s that are still perfectly playable, along with my cassettes from the 70s/80s and CD from the 90s and now. Can you still get data from the 5 1/4" floppies used in the late 80s/early 90s? How many of them are still readable? What about the 8" floppies used in commercial systems in the 80s? The removable disk paks from commercial and industrial systems in the 70s/80s?

User-recordable digital media has not been shown to have an acceptable lifespan in any iteration yet available to consumers. Additionally, there is no licensing scheme shown yet that gives you a hard record of having purchased the use license for downloaded media. These hurdles must be cleared before any of us should be willing to accept VOD.

I totally agree with Mauney. I've burned data-dvd's for backup purposes, and going back to retrieve data on discs I burned 2-3 years ago, I have an alarming rate of "coasters"... Reliability on dvd+/-R and to a lesser degree cd-r is really poor compared to pressed discs. Harddrives also die. I had both my laptop drive at work AND one of my (4) harddrives at home die on me last week...

The flamebait is not in how civilizedly he worded his post, but rather what meaning he is trying to impart to the quoted comments. If you try to portray that MS is the only company trying to get a leg up over the competition if and when the download era comes about, you are hopelessly deluded. There is no use in lynching MS for preparing for the inevitable future, anymore than Apple or Sony. You all just wait for Sony to turn on movie and music downloads via PSN, and we'll take up this topic again.

Exactly. Isn't this part of the supposed hype for Playstation "Home"? Going into a virtual theater and downloading and watching movies?

Blu-ray Bill didn't mention that in his article. Nor did he decide to bring Apple into his discussion, considering the amount of downloadable content iTunes is ramping up.

He also forgot to mention that Microsoft has seen enormous success with those "vastly inferior downloads" as it was so hilariously put by our resident one-liner machine. There's a reason Lionsgate decided to distribute their movies there. And from Lionsgate's own accounts, they have done quite well. (http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=14180).

There's a reason that more and more content is actually going up on their system almost weekly now. Because despite what he here on an enthousiat forum want to think and believe, things like Xbox Live Video Marketplace has been a bigger success than even they thought it would be. And companies like Lionsgate are seeing 50% increases in digital revenue.

The AVSForum crowd may not like what's happening. But it's happening nonetheless. And Microsoft has the experience and sales numbers to back up their claim that downloads and digital delivery could well be the future of distribution here.

...just read BH article, it's pretty reactionary - go back, and you'll see I defended his POV many, many times, but I can't help but think that twisiting this claim to suddenly be pro-BD is pretty foolish.

Is anybody actually surprised that they're going to DL route? That for me would be shocking, particularly in this itunes/VOD/bit-tor-rent age. The key, for me, is to get it on shiny disc while I still can.

Mind you, I still buy music on disc, how many of you can say the same?

MS's pie-in-the-sky. As far as the Digital Bits commentary is concerned. The character who made those comments better take his out of of his %^& because Doherty mentions his beloved format as well (blu ray), i.e., you can believe that if MS helps to take down disk based media that includes blu ray and any other disk based media. So instead of relishing in Doherty's utopia of downloadable content he ought to be as damned concerned.

I should add something here. Anyone who thinks that MS/Apple/Comcast give two shits as to how good the audio/video is going to be for downloadable HD content is fooling themselves.

All they care about is "good enough" and "mass adoption". So for all of you goobers who have been railing about minute differences between HD-DVD VC1 and BD AVC encodes better get ready for a real world of hurt when asstastic low bitrate downloads become the only fare available.

That's just the problem - The sat companies have a horrible trackrecord with messing up quality to save bandwidth. I don't see them suddenly becoming much nicer very soon. They'd rather put out more content (often simply local channels for various markets) than provide even acceptable picture.

I have Dish and the picture looks ok until someone actually moves. OMG the artifacts come popping out.

Yes the sats only have a finite amount of bandwidth that we all have to share. That's why DirecTV is adding networking to the HD receivers to they can also send content via the ethernet. So for day/date releases they will come off of the sat and anyone that chooses will capture them as they come down. For catalog titles they will be sent over the ethernet.

We just need to make sure we are heard in that we want quality bitrates. The HD PPV on DirecTV has some very good rates but they only have a couple of channels until this fall.

Right now on XBL it's 720P content. They can just as easily encode it at 1080P if they wanted too. the XBL content I've seen at 720 P looks very good. It's full 1280x720 content. If they ever start 1080P it will be full 1920x1080 conetent as well. I doubt they would do the 1280x1080 HD-Lite content. And since download speeds are getting faster and faster, eventually it won't take very long to download a 20GB movie for playback.
The whole industry is in flux now. It will take a few years for things to shake out.

I disagree with that. I have downloaded several HD movies on XBL and there nowhere near the quality of an HDDVD. I have an HDA2, video and audio quality on the Microsoft xbox movie downloads are no match for HD media. And one thing that really annoys me with XBL HD movies is the frame rate. Most of the HD movies that i have downloaded seem to run a slower frame rate (maybe to save disk space) and its noticeable to me . Microsoft has a long way to go if they want to compete with the quality of Blu Ray and HDDVD.

I think for the foreseeable future we will have disc based media, and that as time goes on, we will see the marketshare gradually shift away from disc based media and towards on-demand download/streaming model. There will always be disc media for the lunatic fringe that hold on to their disc players and expensive home theaters.

I think for the foreseeable future we will have disc based media, and that as time goes on, we will see the marketshare gradually shift away from disc based media and towards on-demand download/streaming model. There will always be disc media for the lunatic fringe that hold on to their disc players and expensive home theaters.

Ah, but if the low profit lunatic fringe market is cut in 1/2 with two competing standards is it a market worth sustaining?

Here is a link to the article which Bill is talking about:

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/index.cfm?sec_id=2

I think it was pretty obvious to most of us that Microsoft was in this for a quick stalemate and to force downloads on consumers. This article just confirms that.

10 years out is not a quick anything, technologically.

I disagree with that. I have downloaded several HD movies on XBL and there nowhere near the quality of an HDDVD. I have an HDA2, video and audio quality on the Microsoft xbox movie downloads are no match for HD media. And one thing that really annoys me with XBL HD movies is the frame rate. Most of the HD movies that i have downloaded seem to run a slower frame rate (maybe to save disk space) and its noticeable to me . Microsoft has a long way to go if they want to compete with the quality of Blu Ray and HDDVD.

While what you say might be true about the quality of XBLM content [I don't download movies on XBL], why do you think the XBL downloads are competing with HD-DVD and Blu-Ray?

XBLM content is really competing with the cable and sat VoD and "pay per play" systems and not HD-DVD/BD.

If it were, MS would not have released the Xbox360 HD-DVD player. Both are aimed at the same demographic, and would cannibalize each other's market, if your assumption of XBLM content competing with HD MoD (media on disc) were true.

I disagree with that. I have downloaded several HD movies on XBL and there nowhere near the quality of an HDDVD. I have an HDA2, video and audio quality on the Microsoft xbox movie downloads are no match for HD media. And one thing that really annoys me with XBL HD movies is the frame rate. Most of the HD movies that i have downloaded seem to run a slower frame rate (maybe to save disk space) and its noticeable to me . Microsoft has a long way to go if they want to compete with the quality of Blu Ray and HDDVD.

agreed, IMO they are the iTunes quality of the HD world :( Very well could be successful as well following that formula though.

I should add something here. Anyone who thinks that MS/Apple/Comcast give two shits as to how good the audio/video is going to be for downloadable HD content is fooling themselves.

All they care about is "good enough" and "mass adoption". So for all of you goobers who have been railing about minute differences between HD-DVD VC1 and BD AVC encodes better get ready for a real world of hurt when asstastic low bitrate downloads become the only fare available.


Ex-actly.

Downloads may be the future (although I think there will always be a market for physical media)... but it's a future we may not like too much. And I think it's a long way off -- much longer than 5-10 years. I think these firms with a stake in downloads are being way too optimistic.


I can take a peek right now at Comcast "On Demand" HD material... bad selection, compression artifacts, and 2.35:1 material cropped to 16x9.

I'd rather have HD DVD, thank you very much. ;)

While what you say might be true about the quality of XBLM content [I don't download movies on XBL], why do you think the XBL downloads are competing with HD-DVD and Blu-Ray?

XBLM content is really competing with the cable and sat VoD and "pay per play" systems and not HD-DVD/BD.

If it were, MS would not have released the Xbox360 HD-DVD player. Both are aimed at the same demographic, and would cannibalize each other's market, if your assumption of XBLM content competing with HD MoD (media on disc) were true.

But it is competing, download services are cutting into store rentals and/or purchases.

But then, isn't the thedigitalbits with this Bill Hunt THE hardcore - and I mean THE HARDCORE - bluray fanboy institution number one?

I give them props for actually standing up on the soapbox and announcing their position (rather than trying to give the appearance of unbiased reporting).

But it's going to get VERY tedious if they spend the next months/years rationalizing their position by reporting every little blip in the news that can show HD DVD in even the slightest bad light.

Toshiba cuts sales expectations (OMG! See, we totally called that.)
MS says downloads are the future (!!!!!!!!!!!!!! they don't even support their own format!!!!)
Sony announces Spidey 3 (that's going to be HUGE for blu-ray, with no HD DVD in sight!!!!!)
etc. etc. etc.

That's going to get real old, real quick. I liked the old days when they just used to announce and review releases, with occasional rumor mill stuff that was occasionally correct. Now that we're format cheerleading, it's not very interesting or useful, to me at least.

All they care about is "good enough" and "mass adoption". So for all of you goobers who have been railing about minute differences between HD-DVD VC1 and BD AVC encodes better get ready for a real world of hurt when asstastic low bitrate downloads become the only fare available.

Yes, isn't that why we should all be ashamed of ourselves for buying HD-DVD instead of rallying behind Blu-Ray, the only format that has a chance of staving off mediocre quality VOD? :rolleyes:

Sarcasm aside, it will be interesting to see how all this plays out over the next few years. Right now I can't imagine downloading 20 or 30 GB every time I want a new movie from Netflix at today's Internet speeds. I think it took me over an hour just to download the 830 MB Elephant's Dream encode that Ben W. posted the other day (at somewhere between 200 and 300 KB/sec). Seems like Internet speeds will need to be an order of magnitude faster that they are today for this to really work well.

Bradley

But it is competing, download services are cutting into store rentals and/or purchases.

Of HD movies? There is no store-rental market for HD movies worth mentioning at this time. So, for now XBLM downloads are competing only with the cable and satellite providers' VoD offerings at a similar price structure.

I would dare say the cable and telcos are a bigger threat to HD-DVD and Blu-Ray in the near future than XBLM or iTMS will ever be. They have fatter pipes into more homes than MS or Sony can dream of reaching with their XBL or PSN services, and it is what they will choose that will determine the quality of future media offerings and the future viability of the media on disc format. Cut MS some slack here. At least as much as you afford Sony.

Of HD movies? There is no store-rental market for HD movies worth mentioning at this time. So, for now XBLM downloads are competing only with the cable and satellite providers' VoD offerings at a similar price structure.

I would dare say the cable and telcos are a bigger threat to HD-DVD and Blu-Ray in the near future than XBLM or iTMS will ever be. They have fatter pipes into more homes than MS or Sony can dream of reaching with their XBL or PSN services, and it is what they will choose that will determine the quality of future media offerings and the future viability of the media on disc format. Cut MS some slack here. At least as much as you afford Sony.

Yes, HD movies. Maybe not where you live but where I live. Hollywood video rents blu-ray movies and HD-DVD's. Aside from store rentals there are services like netflix as well that would cut into XBLM downloads.

My preference for higher quality video has nothing to do with cutting somebody slack. I'm certainly not claiming there isn't a market for VOD, there is and I've used it (XBLM and Comcast out of convenience) but I prefer the higher quality disc based HD content.

edit: I responded to your other post at #39

Hello.

If I may, I'd like to clarify what was said at the Digital Hollywood Conference yesterday so there is less confusion on the message I was trying to convey. I'll also try to answer some of the questions posed on the site here.

The more surprising quotes from the original article are taken out of context -- during the panel discussion we were specifically discussing non-optical means of HD delivery, and we had been discussing multiple options for HD delivery, market sizes, etc. The quote "I don't know if HD will be delivered on an optical disc in five to ten years" was in the midst of that lengthy discussion, and isn't really stating much of anything other than "I don't know". I believe the quote "At Microsoft we'd rather it wasn't" is also way out of context (and possibly wrong, I have trouble believing I made such a negative comment) -- there are clearly businesses within Microsoft (Xbox Live Marketplace, Windows Media Center being two examples) that are focused on non-optical HD delivery. We do want our business to be ready when consumers shift to other forms of delivery in the distant future (the next 5 to 10 years)

Note that were not talking about downloads specifically -- but simply delivery methods other than optical.

But I trust that no one in AVS Forum doubts Microsoft's commitment to HD-DVD: we have invested significant engineering talent, significant resources, significant time and energy towards the HD-DVD format. Not only do we have a number of talented engineers truly focused on making sure the format delivers on video quality and advanced interactivity (many of whom are on this forum), but we actually have a shipping product! The Xbox360 HD-DVD drive has full retail support, and continues to receive siginficant manufacturing ad marketing support from MS (http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/dealzmodo/two-free-hd-dvds-with-360-drive-267562.php)

The quotes about the possible format's demise were certainly meant to apply to next-gen optical in general: i.e. one outcome of this format war is that both formats fail and consumers continue to buy DVDs. That would be unfortunate for those of use who enjoy both HD-DVD and Blu-ray, and also unfortunate for Microsoft.

I find Bill Hunt's column to be wildly interpretive, biased, and wrong. Microsoft is dedicated to making sure HD-DVD is a fully successful next-generation optical format, and to infer diabolical intent is insulting to the very large number of employees who are dedicating their entire working life to HD-DVD's technical and business success. Enough said about that.

Soma questions:
Isn't he also the AACS spokesman?

Gary
Yes.

I think it was pretty obvious to most of us that Microsoft was in this for a quick stalemate and to force downloads on consumers. This article just confirms that.
I hope you reconsider your position, as nothing could be further from the truth.

The part that worries me is when he said, "if this [optical generatiion] survives," as if it were of no consequence.
I hope I clarified that the quote was out of context, and we certainly be very disappointed, both personally and as a company, to see these next-gen formats fail.

I think it's more likely that he was just being honest about the uncertainty of the format(s.) There's no guarantee that HD DVD will survive, which is what he basically said. To claim otherwise would be dishonest and unrealistic. As to whether or not it's of any consequence to MS, it was not mentioned. What was mentioned is that they hope that after this gen - in 5-10 years - that the market moves toward (and is dominated by) downloads, rather than optical media.
Thanks for your understanding of the honesty of the current state of the format war. I don't think I even meant to suggest domination of downloads in 5 to 10 years, but that there will be multiple forms of delivery. Again, it's hard to capture what was a lengthy panel discussion.

He is (or last I heard) Microsoft’s Director of Technology Strategy, Consumer Media Technology Group and.......... may I add a very professional executive, no matter what side of the fence he is currently working on.
Thank you for the compliment. Penton-Man refers to the time several years ago when I worked for Panasonic and I was spokesman for Blu-ray. It has been an interesting experience working for both sides, though the battle was much different (and more theoretical) back then.

Considering how careful (almost lifeless) every R.Doherty post here on AVS is (legalese must be his second name), I'm surprised how frank his statements (I presume he is the same R. Doherty as the MS' guy at AACS) quoted on DB are.
Some creative journalism? Wouldn't be sirprised.

Diogen.
Lifeless? Dude, Hardcore.

I wouldn't want to suggest the journalist was unprofessional -- if it's the person I think it was he appeared to be furiously writing notes during the event. As I said I think it was much more a lack of context.

Downloads may be the future (although I think there will always be a market for physical media)... but it's a future we may not like too much. And I think it's a long way off -- much longer than 5-10 years. I think these firms with a stake in downloads are being way too optimistic.
Again, the panel was discussing non-optical delivery methods 5 to 10 years in the future, and was not focused only on downloads.

Thank you Richard for your clarification!

I HATE downloads for everything even though I enjoy computers(and work with them as a Software quality engineer for a living) and the conveniences they offer. But, enough is enough. I dont want Microsoft or Apple for that matter controlling HD anything, Fock them.

Here is a list of why downloads suck:

- DRM or other rights management will creep into it no matter what you might think. The downloadable music industry is littered with DRM horror stories. To hell with that! You just KNOW that there will be some type of invasive "protection" schemes involved. Try The URGE music service for a taste of the supposed good life.... :rolleyes:

- Quality, as others have touched on will somehow be compromised.
- It cheapens the whole industry and will cater to gen-x College students and gamers instead of real videophiles and movie buffs. Im soooo tired of being told to just download everything in my life. Whats next, downloading my dinner too? :rolleyes:

- If broadband cable or download services have issues(which they always do) then you are screwed. Ya know "I WAS going to watch Kingdom of Heaven tonight, but my download stopped halfway through....." or whatever other Windows Error pops up. No thanks, I'll just pop in my optical media disc and be done with it. ;)

In the end, I dont mind them offering the download option for people that just have to download everything, but they had better keep the physical media option for a looooong time!

;)

The more surprising quotes from the original article are taken out of context -- during the panel discussion we were specifically discussing non-optical means of HD delivery, and we had been discussing multiple options for HD delivery, market sizes, etc. The quote "I don't know if HD will be delivered on an optical disc in five to ten years" was in the midst of that lengthy discussion, and isn't really stating much of anything other than "I don't know". I believe the quote "At Microsoft we'd rather it wasn't" is also way out of context (and possibly wrong, I have trouble believing I made such a negative comment) -- there are clearly businesses within Microsoft (Xbox Live Marketplace, Windows Media Center being two examples) that are focused on non-optical HD delivery. We do want our business to be ready when consumers shift to other forms of delivery in the distant future (the next 5 to 10 years).

This seems to be the 2nd time in a month that a Home Media Magazine reporter completely misreports one of your presentations. (You gave the infamous "800 HD DVD releases in 2007" presentation, right?)

Seems like that particular publication really needs to look in the mirror a bit.

I find Bill Hunt's column to be wildly interpretive, biased, and wrong. Microsoft is dedicated to making sure HD-DVD is a fully successful next-generation optical format, and to infer diabolical intent is insulting to the very large number of employees who are dedicating their entire working life to HD-DVD's technical and business success. Enough said about that.

The best way to shut Bill Hunt up is to address his questions / issues directly.

That way there is no mis-interpretation.

what BLOWS MY MIND in this thread are all the hd-dvd fanbois coming out and DEFENDING MICROSOFT! its unbelievable. MS could say "Frankly we hope that all these people wasting their money on HD-DVD can help us kill off the HD disc generation as soon as possible so we can start making real money off downloads" and you'd have 50 hd-dvd guys on here defending them.

what BLOWS MY MIND in this thread are all the hd-dvd fanbois coming out and DEFENDING MICROSOFT! its unbelievable. MS could say "Frankly we hope that all these people wasting their money on HD-DVD can help us kill off the HD disc generation as soon as possible so we can start making real money off downloads" and you'd have 50 hd-dvd guys on here defending them.

50? now you are just being very conservative ;)

First off, thank you for commenting and clearing up what you said.

But I trust that no one in AVS Forum doubts Microsoft's commitment to HD-DVD: we have invested significant engineering talent, significant resources, significant time and energy towards the HD-DVD format. Not only do we have a number of talented engineers truly focused on making sure the format delivers on video quality and advanced interactivity (many of whom are on this forum), but we actually have a shipping product! The Xbox360 HD-DVD drive has full retail support, and continues to receive siginficant manufacturing ad marketing support from MS.

Why?

Why is a software company so involved the development and sustainment of an optical disc format? Why is Microsoft spending so much money and man hours to support a product that their products don't need or utilize? Why has Microsoft chosen sides when they don't have anything to gain by one side winning over the other?

The reason these sort of comments run wild, is because looking at this from the outside, it appears that Microsoft is holding the strings of the HD DVD puppet. Microsoft clearly has no gain in this format war. Both sides use your VC-1 technology. Microsoft Software is still delivered on CDs (and I doubt a program will ever reach over 9GB compressed). The Xbox will never use HD DVD for gaming purposes.

I would never expect to see GM supporting a beef producer, so why am I seeing Microsoft supporting an optical disc format they will never use? Its a huge mismatch with no explanation.

Downloadable content simply feels far more disposable to me. Never been a fan of it nor for the potential of micropayments that could ensue for things like extras. The day that physical media for movies/TV dies, then I'm out of the game. I'll find something else to do.

Yes, this I fear is the gist of the problem. Cuts by a thousand micropayments.
To badly paraphrase The Bard:

A bit for a payment is stil a payment, if by any other name.

edit: actually now that I think about it, this is more like a Hiaku.

First off, thank you for commenting and clearing up what you said.



Why?

Why is a software company so involved the development and sustainment of an optical disc format? Why is Microsoft spending so much money and man hours to support a product that their products don't need or utilize? Why has Microsoft chosen sides when they don't have anything to gain by one side winning over the other?

The reason these sort of comments run wild, is because looking at this from the outside, it appears that Microsoft is holding the strings of the HD DVD puppet. Microsoft clearly has no gain in this format war. Both sides use your VC-1 technology. Microsoft Software is still delivered on CDs (and I doubt a program will ever reach over 9GB compressed). The Xbox will never use HD DVD for gaming purposes.

I would never expect to see GM supporting a beef producer, so why am I seeing Microsoft supporting an optical disc format they will never use? Its a huge mismatch with no explanation.

HDi is Microsofts, so is the HD DVD player reference architecture. Both of these are potential royalty sources for MSFT that is exclusive to HD DVD. HD DVD backing studios have also shown a much greater propensity to use VC-1 v. BD exclusive studios....

There is plenty of reason for MSFT to back HD DVD.

Yes, this I fear is the gist of the problem. Cuts by a thousand micropayments.
To badly paraphrase The Bard:

A bit for a payment is stil a payment, if by any other name.

This is a non-format issue in my mind. The only example I have on hand is the first internet enabled HD DVD. The release of Freedom has three flavors of downloadable content on it;

Movie downloads
Key downloads
Image download

The movie downloads are basically quick TV commercials and short promotional pieces.

The key downloads are to unlock information already on the disc I bought

Image download should allow for a different top level menu background. It didn't work on my HD-A1 and instead locked up the player whenever I try to access the top level menu.

I can already envision a movie release in the future in micropayments via download. Pay for the movie, pay another buck for the commentary track, get some other features free but pay for others. And all for content that should have been included in one lump sum up front for the download.

Downloads in my mind are not only the cuts by a million micropayments but also the loss of "rights" that we already exercise with DVD. And all of that is before any potentialy quality issues of the material.

The negatives outweigh the positives to me.

HDi is Microsofts, so is the HD DVD player reference architecture. Both of these are potential royalty sources for MSFT that is exclusive to HD DVD. HD DVD backing studios have also shown a much greater propensity to use VC-1 v. BD exclusive studios....

There is plenty of reason for MSFT to back HD DVD.

HDi is also Disney, but they obviously felt it wasn't big enough where they couldn't give it up. HD DVD player reference architecture definitely doesn't fit in the business model of a software company (so my question still stands). And if HD DVD studios are showing a greater propensity to use VC-1, then Microsoft should spend more time addressing the issue Blu-ray studios have with that codec. Wouldn't it make sense for MS to give more support to Blu-ray so that more studios would use VC-1 since 90% of HD DVD releases are already VC-1 (less area to grow business)?

I feel this is important information regarding the stance of HD-DVD's second biggest backer towards HD optical media.

The thread title is a direct quote from a Microsoft high-ranking representative.

This has been talked to death.

Last time we had someone post a pediction based on "technology crystal ball" that Gates had talked about I even posted what Sony's ideas were - as espoused by KK.

First off, thank you for commenting and clearing up what you said.



Why?

Why is a software company so involved the development and sustainment of an optical disc format? Why is Microsoft spending so much money and man hours to support a product that their products don't need or utilize? Why has Microsoft chosen sides when they don't have anything to gain by one side winning over the other?

The reason these sort of comments run wild, is because looking at this from the outside, it appears that Microsoft is holding the strings of the HD DVD puppet. Microsoft clearly has no gain in this format war. Both sides use your VC-1 technology. Microsoft Software is still delivered on CDs (and I doubt a program will ever reach over 9GB compressed). The Xbox will never use HD DVD for gaming purposes.

I would never expect to see GM supporting a beef producer, so why am I seeing Microsoft supporting an optical disc format they will never use? Its a huge mismatch with no explanation.

You are so far off base here I don't even know where to begin.

For starters, all of the original crop of BD releases used MPEG and looked horrible when coupled to 25GB single layer discs. If there hadn't been VC1 encodes of the same titles to compare to it's entirely likely that few if any studios would have chosen to do better encodes on their 25GB releases.

So ya, I'd say that the consumer has actually benefited from the pushing of VC1 and HD-DVD by MS.

By your logic we should all be condemning Sony a CE Manufacturer for getting into the movie biz so that they could control film distributions and try to force the adoption of their darling BD format.

josh,

is because looking at this from the outside, it appears that Microsoft is holding the strings of the HD DVD puppet. Microsoft clearly has no gain in this format war.

Nothing personal here, but this is the problem with 99.9% of the posters here (and I DO include myself in that percentage), is that your statement is without basis. People around here act is if they really truly know what is going on, and have something figured out. We simply dont.

Not to support MS per se, as it applies to a lot of companies involved, but we have NO idea what their strategy is, we have no idea what there gain is.

From a purely business point of view, your statement is quite probably wrong. MS (as is the case with most business) exists to make money. So MS clearly sees some benefit to their position - even is we dont know what it is.

MS probably would not be doing this for purely altruistic reasons. So, they quite probably see some sort of advantage here.

I can admit that I don't know the inner workings of Microsoft, but if someone from Microsoft comes here and says, "We aren't trying to force downloading content" and gives no other explanation to their motive, all I can do is call BS! Microsoft pushing downloadable content makes sense to me - and to most people on this forum. XBox Live, VC-1, Windows, Servers... all these areas benefit from downloadable content. I don't see any benefit to Microsoft supporting an optical based format. So until someone - hopefully someone from Microsoft - can tell me a reasonable answer why they are supporting it, I'm still going to stick with a stalemate outcome being the main reason.

For the longest time, the reason Microsoft gave for supporting HD DVD (and they may still) is because of cheaper reproduction costs! Microsoft doesn't reproduce anything on HD DVD! Its a BS answer that I just won't accept.

Shouldn't someone change the title of this thread? :confused:

MSFT is on the board of the DVD Forum and the HD DVD promo group where they have a lot more clout in pushing their software. They have realized that BD doesn't have a chance of growing beyond a PS3 movie format. So backing HD DVD and getting their IP as standards is a wise business decision.

Josh, your arguments are short sighted in that you discount the revenue streams for MSFT if HD DVD succeeds. So lower production costs help in mass adoption and hence greater revenue for MSFT from their embedded technologies. MSFT isn't stupid. No company would spend this kind of money to lose on purpose. I have worked long enough and been part of many corporate strategy teams to know that MSFTs actions are not of a company bent on losing the format war. They have put their credibility on the line, more than almost anyone else after Sony and Tosh....perhaps even more than Toshiba. 50% of all HD DVD players are branded with MSFT and over 90% content use their software....HD DVD is now selling about 40% of all HD optical media. So MSFT is very much a key player in this format war....and not on your team ;)

I feel this is important information regarding the stance of HD-DVD's second biggest backer towards HD optical media.

The thread title is a direct quote from a Microsoft high-ranking representative.

How is this any different than Sony's stance?

Phil Harrison: "I'd be amazed if the PS4 had a physical disc drive"

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=18802

Will Bill Hunt run this quote with "I wonder how that makes Blu-ray owners feel"? Fair is fair.

I can admit that I don't know the inner workings of Microsoft, but if someone from Microsoft comes here and says, "We aren't trying to force downloading content" and gives no other explanation to their motive, all I can do is call BS! Microsoft pushing downloadable content makes sense to me - and to most people on this forum. XBox Live, VC-1, Windows, Servers... all these areas benefit from downloadable content. I don't see any benefit to Microsoft supporting an optical based format. So until someone - hopefully someone from Microsoft - can tell me a reasonable answer why they are supporting it, I'm still going to stick with a stalemate outcome being the main reason.

For the longest time, the reason Microsoft gave for supporting HD DVD (and they may still) is because of cheaper reproduction costs! Microsoft doesn't reproduce anything on HD DVD! Its a BS answer that I just won't accept.

Ok, I can't tell if you are really this thick or just acting it up.

Microsoft is morphing from a purely software company to a software and services provider. If you watched the various Microsoft projects in recent years, this would be readily apparent.

Windows, Xbox, Zune, AACS, VC-1, HDi, MMC and advanced audio codecs like Dolby TrueHD are all key technologies for MS, the success of which directly helps their vision of moving towards a digital living room centered around various STBs running flavors of MS software.

The inclusion of Windows Media Center in every operating system, the plans for IPTV delivered via Xbox360 and other STBs in partnerships with cable and satellite providers, as well as on-demand downloads via Xbox Live Marketplace are all inter-related. People who like optical discs would benefit from Mandatory Managed Copy where you can store a digital copy of your beloved disc based movie - hopefully on a server running MS Windows OS because it comes bundled with a Media Center software already!!

Now making these movie encodes suitable for easy transfer over wired and wireless infrastructure both on the internet and in-home is in Microsoft's interest in order to further bolster the value of Xbox and Windows platforms.

HD-DVD as a format was more amenable to Microsoft's vision from the get-go compared to Blu-Ray, and hence is a no-brainer decision for MS to choose to support.

What is so difficult for you to understand in all this? Stop with this stupid "MS is a software only company - so it should stay away from optical disc wars" nonsense.

How is this any different than Sony's stance?

Phil Harrison: "I'd be amazed if the PS4 had a physical disc drive"

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=18802

Will Bill Hunt run this quote with "I wonder how that makes Blu-ray owners feel"? Fair is fair.

That Bill Hunt has chosen sides and is backing Blu-Ray 100% isn't news to anyone, although I feel for the gullible home theater peeps who believe everything the guy says is gospel.

HD-DVD as a format was more amenable to Microsoft's vision from the get-go compared to Blu-Ray, and hence is a no-brainer decision for MS to choose to support.

But why is it "more amenable" than Blu-ray?

But why is it "more amenable" than Blu-ray?

Because VC-1, HDi and MMC (not to mention the bandwidth saving advanced audio codecs) were more readily adopted and used by HD-DVD than BDA which had to be dragged in kicking and screaming into adopting anything other than bloatware and wasteful formats like MPEG-2 and LPCM.

they are already becoming a major player in the movie download market.... just look at the article recently about lionsgate's movies selling well on marketplace and they are one of the smaller players there.

those that use the marketplace can already see part of what ms has in store for the download market.... and its pretty damn nice. I can envision a time where a live marketplace subscription would replace my blockbuster online membership.

they are already becoming a major player in the movie download market.... just look at the article recently about lionsgate's movies selling well on marketplace and they are one of the smaller players there.

those that use the marketplace can already see part of what ms has in store for the download market.... and its pretty damn nice. I can envision a time where a live marketplace subscription would replace my blockbuster online membership.

We just have to make sure to patronize quality over quantity - whether it be on XBL or NetFlix Online or Amazon Unbox or Apple iTMS.

This is a non-format issue in my mind. The only example I have on hand is the first internet enabled HD DVD. The release of Freedom has three flavors of downloadable content on it;

Movie downloads
Key downloads
Image download

The movie downloads are basically quick TV commercials and short promotional pieces.

The key downloads are to unlock information already on the disc I bought

Image download should allow for a different top level menu background. It didn't work on my HD-A1 and instead locked up the player whenever I try to access the top level menu.

I can already envision a movie release in the future in micropayments via download. Pay for the movie, pay another buck for the commentary track, get some other features free but pay for others. And all for content that should have been included in one lump sum up front for the download.

Downloads in my mind are not only the cuts by a million micropayments but also the loss of "rights" that we already exercise with DVD. And all of that is before any potentialy quality issues of the material.

The negatives outweigh the positives to me.

I agree MS already has this model in place with the XBOX Marketplace

You can only use MS points to buy things.

A movie is only viewable for 24 hrs after you hit play. If you never hit play it is gone in two weeks.

Add on content for games or just to make your XBOX screen cooler - soem free, some not.

Charge $50/yr to be part of an "exclusive" membership.

Not throwing stones at just MS. Seems like that is the business model everyone is going to. Todays young people (15-25) have known downloads, legal or not, as a way of life. So in 10 years why would that generation not want just downloads, as it is almost all they have known for media. Less messy that a 300 DVD collection, but doesn't mean I would like it to go that way.

Over 10 years ago none of the major record companies indicated they would ever offer a business model to download music. Now if you don't, your losing out.

Microsoft wants downloading rather than discs. What a shocker! We all know that's the only reason they're backing HD DVD, to hurt BD's chances of mainstream success. Microsoft like any other company is all about making money, they're not stupid... they've planned ahead. ;)

MSFT is on the board of the DVD Forum and the HD DVD promo group where they have a lot more clout in pushing their software. They have realized that BD doesn't have a chance of growing beyond a PS3 movie format.

I am a HD-DVD owner/supporter, but I wouldn't think for a second that BD doesn't have a chance of succeeding in the market place. I don't believe there is an inevitable outcome or that either format is necessarily "doomed". Way too early to tell.

Microsoft has a myriad of reasons to support HD-DVD. The specific reasons don't matter very much to me other than the degree to which they determine the depth and longevity of Microsoft's support.

Bradley

Hi,

When will RELENTLESS ENEMIES play on the 360 add-on?

Anyone?

Anyone?

Anyone?

Is that full support? Anyone?

We just have to make sure to patronize quality over quantity - whether it be on XBL or NetFlix Online or Amazon Unbox or Apple iTMS.

I agree but I think you will see the same level of "commitment to quality" as you do the movie studios to hd-dvd/bluray. A few really great ones and most that look great. I dont know if you have downloaded any of the movies off marketplace but they can look really good (its almost scary how good some of the movies look compared to the same movie on hd-dvd).

We dont know for sure but most assume ms is using vc1 to encode the movies with... it really can look quite good at such a low bitrate but I think thats expected with vc1.... its pretty damn efficient at low bitrates. the question i still think is going to determing this is will 1080p matter in the long term because live marketplace is 720p for everything. i do think 1080p will not be doable in the longterm for movie download services. i dont see them going past 720p but i still dont think it will matter to a majority of people enough to keep them from downloading because it requires that a majority of people going forward employ 1080p beyond just hd-dvd and bluray.

I agree but I think you will see the same level of "commitment to quality" as you do the movie studios to hd-dvd/bluray. A few really great ones and most that look great. I dont know if you have downloaded any of the movies off marketplace but they can look really good (its almost scary how good some of the movies look compared to the same movie on hd-dvd).

We dont know for sure but most assume ms is using vc1 to encode the movies with... it really can look quite good at such a low bitrate but I think thats expected with vc1.... its pretty damn efficient at low bitrates. the question i still think is going to determing this is will 1080p matter in the long term because live marketplace is 720p for everything. i do think 1080p will not be doable in the longterm for movie download services. i dont see them going past 720p but i still dont think it will matter to a majority of people enough to keep them from downloading because it requires that a majority of people going forward employ 1080p beyond just hd-dvd and bluray.

What kind of TV do you have to qualify making that statement?

I've never see an HD download that looked even PASSABLE on my 60" SXRD set. HD-DVD absolutely blows any download out of the water.

The thought of needing to slurp down 500kbps for 24 straight hours to get accepteable quality HD video via a download is ridiculous.

I find this HIGHLY suspicious...

I wouldn't want to suggest the journalist was unprofessional -- if it's the person I think it was he appeared to be furiously writing notes during the event. As I said I think it was much more a lack of context.

...based on the comments above, you are implying that the journalist was =writing= his notes rather than either a) typing them, or b) using a tablet PC. It was my understanding that predictions were made a decade ago that within 10 years the art of handwriting would be replaced with digital note-taking.

:)

Thank you for your clarifications above, note that there are indeed a few of us that actually took your comments to be of a tone expanded upon by your comments above.

I also take it that despite the preference MS has for HD-DVD, it's not like they're preventing BD from flourishing, featuring support through OS and VC1 encoding tools to assist.

As someone who has actually purchased a small library of discs of both types, I still feel that MS may be -more- bullish about optical media than even I am - having seen the drop-off in DVD-A/SACD as the formats failed to catch on, I know what it's like to see an HD format war fizzle out quietly. Granted, the players are bigger this time, and the stakes higher, but it's not like the safe bet is for the dominance of =either= HD-DVD or BD over DVD, or other means of disc-less digital distribution, any time soon.

So they produced an advanced codecs for both formats, then created the interactivity layer that they tried to get used in both formats, then they made a 360 add-on, then they drove around the country on a big bus - all so they could see the formats fail....

Man, that Amir is sneaky.

From the Insider's Thread (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10771667&&#post10771667)

Thanks Doc . Indeed, that is, and has been our position for a long time. I have been on the record here for probably 3 years stating that if the only way to get high quality HD to consumers in 10 years time, then we have failed in doing our job . Optical is a means to an end and not the end itself.



What I thought all along. They're using HDDVD as a means to the end of maturing their codec. We've seen the first iteration of the same concept used in XBL on DIVX, which was fortunately annihilated.


I think everyone would agree that if you could get the same quality experience as HD DVD/BD without making a trip to the store, or waiting for a package to arrive in mail, it would lead to more enjoyment of that content. We have however as an industry, failed to deliver on this promise for video but as Doc mentions, we are almost there for music. But that doesn’t mean we should ignore the revolution around us.


Except we don't want DRM, we don't want spyware/adware, and we want our rights to Fair Use respected. MMC is only a step in the direction but the real problem is that the recording industries are increasingly becoming a vestigial anachronism. We had theater and music before they existed and we'll have theater and music after they're gone.


For people who want to spin this as us not wanting HD media, well, they can mislead themselves all they want . But it won’t make it true or make for good reporting. Until last year, I managed the Windows Media Player yet the team working on HD DVD player/HDi was twice as big as that group was! If that doesn’t show how committed we are to HD DVD, I don’t know what will.


The fruits of that team are useful in many other areas (most notably XBL and IPTV). MS corporate attitude is obviously entirely different than Sony's, which is staking all their marbles on Blu-ray, while MS put a couple multi-purpose marbles in the HDDVD pot. If they were as behind HDDVD as Sony, the Elite would have seen an internal HDDVD drive, if not 8Ch PCM output.



Do people realize where DVD came from btw? Its genesis was in the failure to deliver VOD in Orlando during Time Warner trials. Instead of packing their bags, TW and Toshiba realized that the whole business was about a better way to deliver content than VHS tape. So the DVD was born. Now I have VOD on my Comcast cable box and the economics finally make sense in that respect. If one gets fixated on spinning an optical disc as the only means of delivering pristine audio/video experience, they just might miss the next DVD revolution.


Not the best example because the HDTV / Programming forums are rife with people satisfied with Comcast! :scared: Fair Use is the most important bit of all and one most of these companies are trying like hell to stifle and circumvent. You own DVD. You can resell your DVD. You can back up your DVD (well they didn't want to let that happen, but you can) ;) You can take it with you in your car and portable player. Until digital distribution can allow ALL of those, it'll never get out the gate.

Now add the additional weaknesses of harddrive failure and data integrity along with an insufficient broadband infrastructure.

So they produced an advanced codecs for both formats, then created the interactivity layer that they tried to get used in both formats, then they made a 360 add-on, then they drove around the country on a big bus - all so they could see the formats fail....

Man, that Amir is sneaky.

Norbit ! What took you so long?

What kind of TV do you have to qualify making that statement?

I've never see an HD download that looked even PASSABLE on my 60" SXRD set. HD-DVD absolutely blows any download out of the water.

The thought of needing to slurp down 500kbps for 24 straight hours to get accepteable quality HD video via a download is ridiculous.

Optoma HD70 720p projector. I know my projector is not 1080p but Ive been to my friends house who has I think your exact same TV. Its a 60 SXRD and he has both a ps3 and xbox 360 to compare. Xbox live marketplace downloads looked damn good on his SXRD. We also were curious (and I know this isnt a terribly valid comparison) but we downloaded trailers for movies that were on both the ps3 and live marketplace since all of marketplace content is 720p and the ps3 has some 1080p. I was pretty surprised to find the content looked identical (very close to identical atleast) when the ps3 had 1080p content. But like I said its not a valid comparison because they were both downloaded.

But we did do some testing on the dual format stuff that was also on live (since the ps3 doesnt have full movies). And live compared quite well on his SXRD. with the hd-dvd addon and ps3. I forget the movie we used and that is a factor but the quality was still closer than I expected.

2 words....DAMAGE CONTROL :rolleyes:

From the Insider's Thread (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10771667&&#post10771667)
Except we don't want DRM, we don't want spyware/adware, and we want our rights to Fair Use respected. MMC is only a step in the direction but the real problem is that the recording industries are increasingly becoming a vestigial anachronism. We had theater and music before they existed and we'll have theater and music after they're gone.

Who's "we"? A select few of us on an enthousiat forum? Judging from how Xbox Live Video Marketplace, iTunes, Napster, and On Demand are actually doing, I would say a vast majority of people really don't care about DRM or even know what Fair Use even is.


The fruits of that team are useful in many other areas (most notably XBL and IPTV). MS corporate attitude is obviously entirely different than Sony's, which is staking all their marbles on Blu-ray, while MS put a couple multi-purpose marbles in the HDDVD pot. If they were as behind HDDVD as Sony, the Elite would have seen an internal HDDVD drive, if not 8Ch PCM output.

And you see the issue it has created for Sony. They can't sell their Playstation 3/Blu-Ray player because it's too expensive. Microsoft would have been in a similar situation putting an internal HD DVD drive into the Elite. The cost would have been too much, and the Elite would be failing miserably at this point.

It has nothing to do with their level of loyalty to HD DVD. It's obvious by working with Broadcom on the HD DVD technology to put into the Chinese players, they have a working interest in the format. [/QUOTE]

I feel this is important information regarding the stance of HD-DVD's second biggest backer towards HD optical media.

why would you think it is much different for the first one?

Because VC-1, HDi and MMC (not to mention the bandwidth saving advanced audio codecs) were more readily adopted and used by HD-DVD than BDA which had to be dragged in kicking and screaming into adopting anything other than bloatware and wasteful formats like MPEG-2 and LPCM.

And this is my point all along.

VC-1 is used on both formats, and the fact that it is used less on Blu-ray means Microsoft should be spending more time focusing on Blu-ray support to gain new business. There is obviously more business opportunity on Blu-ray than HD DVD (because 90% of HD DVDs are VC-1 versus the small percentage on Blu-ray).

HDi was dumped by co-developer Disney without much fuss, I can't believe there is that much in royalties here. I think this stance is more to oppose everything Java rather than support HDi, but that isn't good business, just bad politics.

MMC is on both formats. Regardless, Microsoft provides no content which would make use of this feature.

As for the codecs, both formats use the same ones, so there is no difference there.

The fact that even Sony believes they made a massive miscalculation on the BD strategy is proven from the hundreds of layoffs and firings and retirements directly related to BD! Most noteably in their PS3 group...which probably accounts for 75% of all BD investment, if not more.

While MSFT increases investment in HD DVD development, Sony seems to be decreasing investment in it - and now seems to be focusing more on DVD upscaling. Wow! how the tables have turned.

Apparently there are even more lay offs planned in Sony land - related to their BD strategy no doubt!

Facts speak louder than mere postulations. Don't they?

You can't criticise MSFT for making the better choices as a company - better for the consumer, better for MSFT. The rest is irrelevant from their perspective. JMHO.

To those that don't think downloadable content will happen WAKE UP, :)

Microsoft didn't say they expect optical media to die today but instead they are looking long term 5-10 years away. 10 years people. That is a lifetime in the computer industry.

10 years ago 99.9% of US was on dialup using windows 95 with <2GB Hard Drive, 64MB RAM, and a Pentium I processor running 166Mhz.

In the last 10 years:
Memory capacity has increased about 64X
Processor power has increased 76X
Connection speeds have increased 30-100x
Video card rendering power has increased 400x
Hard drive capacities have increased 500x

There is no indication that the next 10 years will see slower progress than the last.

The price per GB for storage has decreased from $200/GB to $0.35/GB (a factor of 570) in 10 years.

Another way to look at it is the first consumer 1GB hard drive (3.5" EIDE, 1" height was released by Segate in 1995 at a cost of $400 per GB, I know I was a CS student at Virginia Tech and was one of the first who bought one. Hitachi released the first 1TB drive 12 years later at a cost of $400 per TB. A 1000x fold improvement in both CAPACITY AND COST.

The other problem until now has been speed. The internet itself is amazingly fast. Most major long haul links are now OC-192 which offers 10Gigabits of bandwidth. Recently Verizon has begun testing OC-768 (40Gbps) links on CISCO high end switches. The amazing thing about bandwidth is once the infrastructure is in place it can be upgraded without any fixed cost. Single mode fiber optic has been proven effective for up to 14Terabits per second. Likely the true limit is somewhere in the hundred terabit range. Till now all that potential has been wasted due to the slowness of the "last mile" connection to the consumer. The next 10 years will see major leaps in 4 "last mile technology" cable HFI, FTTH (fiber to the home) branded Fios by Verizon, wimax fixed wireless, and 4G cellphone networks.

Broadband speeds will be forced higher by Verizon FIOS. I don't have fiber in my neighborhood but Cox recently upgraded by service preemptively from 8Mbps to 15Mbps because Verizon has been laying fiber in the area.

Once the fiber is in the ground Verizon can increase speeds as needed with little increased cost. The passive optical network is very inexpensive to operate compared to fiber and is limited in capacity only by the transmitting equipment. One node can currently support 655Mps to about 32 units and that can easily be increased by a factor of 100 without replacing the fiber.

Cable networks have an unbelievable amount of bandwidth capacity however currently the vast majority is wasted on analog. All the houses one one node share about 2 6Mhz channels for internet and most cable networks have hundreds of analog SD channels. Digital only networks will replace analog networks over next 10 years. DoCSIS 3.0 allows higher bandwidth and channel bonding allowing speeds of 30x connections today as analog channels are replaced by far more efficent digital channels (2 full HD channels can fit in the same frequency occupied by one analog SD channel).

Sprint is heavily invested in Wimax for fixed wireless which can target rural America cost effectively. 4G cellphone networks will be IP based with voice running as an application as opposed to current voice based networks with data running as an optical service

10 years people. Nobody is saying this will happen tomorrow but some of the arguments seen hear are just plain silly. "People like to collect things". DVD Sales are FLAT. The only growth in DVD market is rentals which is growing at a phenomenal rate at the cost of disc sales. Someone stated it will never happen because 99% of the world doesn't have broadband. Well a majority of the world also doesn't have electricity either but that isn't the market the content industry is targeting.

We will likely see a progression like this of online systems like this:

1) Disc rentals (system like XBL and others) - a replacement for B&M movie rental chains.
2) Subscriptions services - a replacement for netflix style flat monthly fee plans
3) Direct Purchase - purchasing titles for storage on media server (likely TV shows initially)
4) Purchase and burn - final replacement for traditional store bought optical content.

Each stage will take time. Nobody is planning on jumping from step 0 to step 4 tomorrow. We are already at stage one with xbox live selling HD content on a per view basis. Apple, netflix, blockbuster, Amazon, Wallmart, most cable companies, numerous startups, and Microsoft are pouring money into research because a lightning fast internet will change the way business is conducted. Vista can legally be purchased and downloaded online. Users upgrade from one version to another by purchasing an upgrade without reinstalling the disc. Steam has been selling games online (Halflife2) for 5-6 years now and attracted the attention of a large number of developers.

Broadband is in 38% of US households and expected to be 70% by 2011.
http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?id=1004993&src=article_head_sitesearch

Virtually everyone who has underestimated it's growth potential was proven wrong by a magnitude. The president of IBM said "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." in 1954. IBM delayed their entry into the PC market as a result of a corporate focus based on a belief that computers would remain massive expensive machines and not used by everyday people.

Microsoft and other successful companies look for the future and anticipate demands and needs to be position to delivery products, and services that are in demand. To simply see the quote as an agenda to kill of HD media is foolish and short sighted.

If one gets fixated on spinning an optical disc as the only means of delivering pristine audio/video experience, they just might miss the next DVD revolution.

I believe this is the single most important quote I've heard from a high ranking MS exectutive. Microsoft missed the MP3 downloading music boat. The Ipod and Itunes blew the market out of the water and they've got a strangle hold on it now. Microsoft is struggling with it's Zune and other download services affiliations.

I think Microsoft is trying to position itself as first in line when the video revolution takes place. That's why they joined the hi-def wars. They needed studios to become comfortable with their codec, their encoding tools, and their support. When the next big market swing finally makes it to downloading video they'll bust out their next super encoding tools, demonstrate the scalability of VC-1 from cellphone type video all the way up to XBL type VOD. They should have an already established format and be well on their way to establishing the store with XBL marketplace. It won't be long before you'll get Windows Marketplace (if it's not already there).

However, it greatly concerns me that the company which brought us Windows Genuine Advantage is gaining such a strong foothold in this market. In the PC world Microsoft is not known for their "customer friendly" initiatives even though I feel sometimes they get a bad rap in the PC world. The EXACT opposite is happening in the hi-def movie world. Sony has achieved this "bad rap" while some on this forum would lead you to believe that MS supports HD-DVD because they care about consumer rights and don't like excessive DRM. This is laughable in itself. Microsoft isn't pioneering DRM free music on Itunes. Apple is.

The PC is really the "Wild Wild West" when it comes to copy protection and DRM. If it can be cracked, it will be cracked. AACS has proven this along with Apple's fair play. In my opinion, Microsoft is developing a sturdy and robust copy protection scheme for download-able video for PC's and Windows software. Vista and some of it's new rights managements systems seem to lean towards this trend. I simply think that MS is waiting for the correct moment to flop it down in front of the studios and watch them come begging for their superior DRM, their excellent scaling codec tools, and their unrivaled suport in the new(future) frontier of VOD for all PC devices.

Bring on a high quality, HD download service. It is as inevitable as the sun rising in the east. When, is a big question, based on all sorts of bandwidth issues.

But as I have articulated in another thread, I find the frequency that I watch a movie a second time is such that I would be money way ahead if I could rent at less than $5 a watch.

I realize others may think differently, but the "conspiracy theory" that MS is trying to torpedo BD in favor of downloads by supporting HD DVD doesn't worry me in the least.

Indeed, MS actions would suggest this theory is foolish. They have licensing revenue to gain if HD DVD clearly wins (more than if BD does), they view Sony and Java as arch-rivals, and they have been working hard to make HD DVD win, not just draw, against BD.

So, nice FUD attempt, OP Blu-ray fan krinkle. From me, you get a *yawn*.

Ken

PS: And anything quoted from the Digital Bits is BD fanboi fodder.

Despite the damage control here, its pretty clear to me why MS support HD-DVD.
1. MS have shown that they want to be the centre of the digital home. The PS3 made a very serious challenge for that market, leverging of BD, so supporting the other side is about the best thing they could do (while gaining a nice little test bed for VC1 and HDi in prep for the downloads.)

2. MS and Sun aren't good buddies over Java

You can't claim the reference platform was the reason, happened way after there choice to support. Hard to even claim VC1 royalities seeing as the patent pool gives them not such a big slice.

I don't think too many people are arguing that downloads have huge potential, the issue at hand is that of they only appear to be supporting HD-DVD to try to slow BD, rather than going with what the vast majority of industry and studios went.
They only support Toshina out of the "my enemy's enemy is my friend" principal.

I wouldn't mind adding a download service to take over renting, I really do. But if they try and obsolete physical media for purchasing I won't take that at all. Some people only watch a movie once, but I know many people who like to watch their favorite movie with friends. Say, for example, I'm hanging out with some buddies we decide to watch a movie. I have over 500 dvd's. Good choices and we can watch it nearly instantly. If we decide we don't want to watch that one part way through we can just swap to another. Of look at my wife. She has quite a few favorites that she plays in the back ground while she studies. She doesn't want to have to cue up a movie and start the download process. Not only that, they would have to make this download service a little black box that you attach to your TV, not just your computer. Many people don't have a way to connect their computer to their TV or want a long cable running from their computer room to their TV etc.. Not only that think of all the people with cheapo computers that don't have good sound cards a decent video card. I've seen a lot of computers that have built in video cards that don't really play well on DVD's let alone HD DVD's. Also how many people are going to figure out how to connect their computer to the TV and switch the resolution to the native res of their TV. Downloads may come as a rental service but to replace purchasing would be a nasty mistake on their part.

But as I have articulated in another thread, I find the frequency that I watch a movie a second time is such that I would be money way ahead if I could rent at less than $5 a watch.

That is possible today with services such as Netflix, assuming you watch enough movies per month. You don't get instant gratification, trying to downloading 15 or 30 GB at today's Internet speeds could hardly be called "instant" either. I'm just saying "the old fashioned way" works fairly well and isn't what I would call overpriced.

In an odd way, this reminds me a little bit of public transportation in some cities. People don't want to use it because it isn't fast, efficient, and convenient. When it becomes fast and efficient, then people wouldn't mind supporting it financially. You have some classic cart/horse, chicken/egg, "build it and they will come" factors at play.

Bradley

I find Bill Hunt's column to be wildly interpretive, biased, and wrong. Microsoft is dedicated to making sure HD-DVD is a fully successful next-generation optical format, and to infer diabolical intent is insulting to the very large number of employees who are dedicating their entire working life to HD-DVD's technical and business success.

Richard, no offense, but this is a bit like the pot calling the kettle black. As a paid employee of Microsoft, one of HD-DVD's chief corporate supporters, your job is to promote your company's interests, one of which Microsoft claims to be HD-DVD. Don't talk to me about bias. At least I'm not getting paid for my opinions.

I'm hardly inferring diabolical intent to Microsoft. However, this would not be the first time that a corporation, to further its own interests, acted strategically in the marketplace in a way that wasn't in the interests of consumers. Microsoft doesn't make movies or TV shows, it doesn't make home theater/video hardware. I simply find it more than a little odd that you're fueling a home entertainment format war in which you would seem to have little stake on the surface.

Looking deeper, however, it seems to me that Microsoft has plenty at stake in this format war. Was it that Microsoft supported HD-DVD because of HDi interactivity or VC-1, or rather was it because Blu-ray used BD-Java instead, and because Sony was building Blu-ray capability into the PS3, a directly competing game platform to Microsoft's Xbox 360? Or was it because, by your own admission, Microsoft believes the future of all home entertainment media is downloading? It seems to me that your company has plenty of reasons to get involved in the format war, having to do with its business interests, and little to do with the actual interests of film and home theater enthusiasts at places like AVS Forum. In any case, it's our belief that your company has little interest in next generation HD optical discs becoming a thriving market. Because what’s ACTUALLY good for that market is NOT TO HAVE A FORMAT WAR. What's actually good for all the enthusiasts here at AVS, is for there to be A SINGLE UNIFIED FORMAT. This format war did NOT have to happen, and I don’t recall Microsoft doing much to try to stop it.

I have no doubt that there are many good people working on HD-DVD at Microsoft. Don't turn this into some kind of political pissing contest please. What, are you going to say I'm insulting the troops in Iraq next? Give me a break. This isn't personal. Nonetheless, it's our belief at The Digital Bits that without Microsoft's involvement, this format war would have been over by now. We stand by that belief.

As for some (certainly not all) of you guys here at AVS Forum, it would be nice if you'd stop making this personal, stop with the trash talking and backstabbing and name calling of each other, and try to do something positive to end this format war. I didn't CARE which format won this thing when it started, as long as the war ended quickly and one format actually had the chance to thrive. But we've chosen sides now because this thing has just going on too damn long. Perhaps I'm not looking deep enough, but most of what I've seen from you guys here is an endless parade of discussion threads in which you lambast each other for having chosen different formats, and make smarmy personal comments about anyone who doesn't agree with you. Meanwhile, this format war drags on, and every day it continues on, the chance of either format thriving in the long terms evaporates a little bit more. Did no one here learn anything from DVD vs Divx or from DVD-Audio vs SACD? Unless you guys all really do want to see discs die and downloading take off. But believe this: The day downloading becomes the norm, you can forget about even the smallest semblence of ownership of the movies you buy. You won't even have a physical copy anymore. And you can forget about the kind of thoughtful, in-depth special editions that we've all enjoyed over the last ten years, because the economics won't be there anymore to support their creation. I can tell you this for sure: there aren't a lot of DVD producers who are excited about an all downloading future. I find it deeply disappointing that the film and home theater enthusiast market would be willing to sacrifice discs for downloads. If and when that happens, it'll be a very sad day for us all.

Bill Strikes Back! :D

Nice post, Bill. I agree (not that it'll mean much to the posters here).

So Bill, it sounds like your position is that those of us who are only supporting HD-DVD are "ruining" any chance of BD becoming the new standard?

Don't you own HD DVD players and movies?

Bill, Thanks so much for your post. Your rational arguments are just what this site needs!

Bill, Thanks so much for your post. Your rational arguments are just what this site needs!

+1

So Bill, it sounds like your position is that those of us who are only supporting HD-DVD are "ruining" any chance of BD becoming the new standard?

Hardly. But the tone of the discussion around here is only hurting this community, not helping it.

Don't you own HD DVD players and movies?

I do. Just as I own Blu-ray players and movies. But I'm willing to sacrifice one of these two formats if it allows HD on disc to move forward as one united community again. I didn't care which format it was. When this thing dragged on too long, however, we sat down at The Digital Bits and looked at all the facts and trends and made the logical, non-emotional decision that Blu-ray had the best chance to survive long term, and so that's the format we decided to support. I have nothing against HD-DVD or HD-DVD enthusiasts. It just seems to me that too many people are putting their own personal feelings into this mix. Their decisions are all about "I hate Microsoft!" or "I hate Sony!" We don't hate anyone. We're just shouting from the rooftops that this format war needs to end and soon, or we WILL ALL LOSE.

And I'm sorry, but a PAID Microsoft employee coming in here calling me biased for my opinions is a hypocracy I simply can't let stand without reply. 'Nuff said.

Hardly. But the tone of the discussion around here is only hurting this community, not helping it.



I do. Just as I own Blu-ray players and movies. But I'm willing to sacrifice one of these two formats if it allows HD on disc to move forward as one united community again. I didn't care which format it was. When this thing dragged on too long, however, we sat down at The Digital Bits and looked at all the facts and trends and made the logical, non-emotional decision that Blu-ray had the best chance to survive long term, and so that's the format we decided to support. I have nothing against HD-DVD or HD-DVD enthusiasts. It just seems to me that too many people are putting their own personal feelings into this mix. Their decisions are all about "I hate Microsoft!" or "I hate Sony!" We don't hate anyone. We're just shouting from the rooftops that this format war needs to end and soon, or we WILL ALL LOSE.

And I'm sorry, but a PAID Microsoft employee coming in here calling me biased for my opinions is a hypocracy I simply can't let stand without reply. 'Nuff said.

Correction : it should be M$oft and $ony

everything else looks about right ;)

That's an admirable position Bill, but unfortunately your audience is far too small to be swayed by such shouting.

We both know that the only way that either format can "take off" to mass adoption is if there is better penetration in the market than there has beein.

If the option for me (and many of my well heeled friends) is to buy a "not quite ready" BD player or a PS3 to enjoy HD movies or to buy an inexpensive HD-DVD player and enjoy those movies, I'm going to pick HD-DVD.

I understand where you are coming from, but unfortunately the user community who can plunk down $500-$1000 for a BD player is very small.

I think that if the war is still going in 12 months (one side hasn't had sales decline to nothing or capitulated) than we are going to see a move towards hybrid players.

The scapegoating continues.
Who's next in the new witch hunt.

I don't know, they haven't seemed to have lost their focus on the weekly I hate Bill topics yet over at the HD-DVD forums. I don't see them moving on just yet.

Thanks for posting Bill!

Bill, the adults here at AVS who realize how underhanded the tactics on AVS by certain paid members of a giant corporation know that you are fighting for US, the real home theater enthusiasts. Thank you for that.

Hardly. But the tone of the discussion around here is only hurting this community, not helping it.


Says the guys making one inflammatory statement after another! :eek:

I didn't CARE which format won this thing when it started, as long as the war ended quickly and one format actually had the chance to thrive. But we've chosen sides now because this thing has just going on too damn long.

Hello Bill.

I choose HD DVD and don't plan on Blu ray regardless of your arguments.

Robert, no offense, but this is a bit like the pot calling the kettle black. As a paid employee of Microsoft, one of HD-DVD's chief corporate supporters, your job is to promote your company's interests, one of which Microsoft claims to be HD-DVD. Don't talk to me about bias. At least I'm not getting paid for my opinions.

His name is Richard Doherty, not to be confused with the other Richard or "Rick" Doherty (http://www.digitalhollywood.com/%231DHFall04/DHFall20.html). Maybe you consider this mincing words, but he said he found bias in that article in particular. I didn't find his remarks to be a personal attack on you or some attempt at character assassination. Beyond that, the guy has every right to try to clarify what he said when quoted out of context and most AVSForum members welcome industry insiders sharing their point of view here.

Because what’s ACTUALLY good for that market is NOT TO HAVE A FORMAT WAR. What's actually good for all the enthusiasts here at AVS, is for there to be A SINGLE UNIFIED FORMAT. This format war did NOT have to happen, and I don’t recall Microsoft doing much to try to stop it.

Do you firmly believe that there are absolutely no positives to this "war"?

I have no doubt that there are many good people working on HD-DVD at Microsoft. Don't turn this into some kind of political pissing contest please. What, are you going to say I'm insulting the troops in Iraq next? Give me a break. This isn't personal. Nonetheless, it's our belief at The Digital Bits that without Microsoft's involvement, this format war would have been over by now. We stand by that belief.

I'm sorry, but that is exactly what you're doing now by replying at great length and with such incredulity to a brief comment Doherty made regarding your article. You are clearly adding fuel to the fire.

As for some (certainly not all) of you guys here at AVS Forum, it would be nice if you'd stop making this personal, stop with the trash talking and backstabbing and name calling of each other... Perhaps I'm not looking deep enough, but most of what I've seen from you guys here is an endless parade of discussion threads in which you lambast each other for having chosen different formats, and make smarmy personal comments about anyone who doesn't agree with you.

I agree. The bickering, name calling, and trash talking is pointless.

Meanwhile, this format war drags on, and every day it continues on, the chance of either format thriving in the long terms evaporates a little bit more. Did no one here learn anything from DVD vs Divx or from DVD-Audio vs SACD? Unless you guys all really do want to see discs die and downloading take off. But believe this: The day downloading becomes the norm, you can forget about even the smallest semblence of ownership of the movies you buy. You won't even have a physical copy anymore. And you can forget about the kind of thoughtful, in-depth special editions that we've all enjoyed over the last ten years, because the economics won't be there anymore to support their creation. I can tell you this for sure: there aren't a lot of DVD producers who are excited about an all downloading future. I find it deeply disappointing that the film and home theater enthusiast market would be willing to sacrifice discs for downloads. If and when that happens, it'll be a very sad day for us all.

I don't think these are foregone conclusions, that BD's success will somehow stave off VOD/downloading, or that HD-DVD's continued existance will doom both BD and HD-DVD to extinction or irrelevancy. You're entitled to your opinion, of course, but I find these assertions to be a bit dire, premature, and pessimistic.

Instead of making a plea to AVS enthusiasts and consumers at large to support BD, why not make a plea for all studios to go format neutral? Don't you think that's the thing that really hurts consumers: being "punished"for choosing one format or the other? Isn't that the single worst part about the "war"?

Bradley

...the problem, some of us feel, is that the new political agenda at the 'Bits is covering up the very real issues on the BD camp in favour of simply slamming the Tosh/MS/HD-DVD camp.

When one grants the idea that you'd like to avoid the format war, the solution isn't necessarily to pick one side and really, really hope the other one goes away. A workable combo player, for example, would for all intents and purposes do the same thing - allowing Uni and others to remain on one format while the other studios support the other. No one is here shouting about the DVD+R vs DVD-R "war".

I stand by the fact that the MS comments should not come as a surprise, nor should they somehow be seen as the beginnings of a plot to undermine consumers in favour of some nefarious scheme.

I think, Bill, that you can continue to trumpet the BD vs. HD-DVD situation without apearing as a total shill for one side. Slamming the problems of HD-DVD while ignoring the very real concerns about BD adoption at this time (replication, Fox's recent silence, changing standards in October, etc.) is simply irresponsible, in my opinion. You are supposedly talking to the consumer that wants to know what format to buy - if you're telling them to buy BD, at least tell them to wait until the specs are finalized. Yes, the PS3 is upgradeable, but, well, I'm not getting into that again...

We at AVS, the pathetic lot that we are, are willing (bitchy, but willing) to deal with G1 and G2 quibbles in order to improve our HT systems. The people you are supposedly trying to rally should be given the full facts, and don't need an onslaught of negative slamming of the other "side" to somehow bolster your point of view.

Tick off the BD advantages - studio support, disc size, CE support. The latter cannot be denied, the mid is sometimes moot given differing codec implementations and the wait for 50gb replication, and the former is questionable given the fact that Fox has gone awol for all intents and purposes. LONG TERM you may very well be right, that BD will continue to dominate, but if you're taking that view, then for gosh sakes encourage your readers to either wait it out until is settles (which you have done in the past), or at least wait until players with 1.1 emerge.

Still, little I say will probably sway you, I fear that not only have you made up your mind, but that there is no place for counter argument on your site. As someone who all along expected to be format neutral, expected a few years of studios going back and forth with titles only to realize this niche wasn't going to take over DVD and simply move to VOD/Streaming, and someone willing to have two players to do the job so I can enjoy all the titles I want, I think your recent explicit "coming out" does a disservice to your many loyal readers, myself included.

Still, it's the 'net. Rant away, my boy, rant away...

Nonetheless, it's our belief at The Digital Bits that without Microsoft's involvement, this format war would have been over by now. We stand by that belief.



Do you not also believe that MS is not the only party involved on either side who could have "prevented" this war?

Could Sony not have prevented this war? Couldn't anyone on the Blu-Ray side have also prevented the war? If so, why all the harsh words on just MS and for the HD-DVD side?

If MS are not a content provider or CE manufacturer. What weight do they really hold in this war that makes them so special as to be the only one who could prevent or even stop this?

Could the movie studio's have just all gone neutral and let the consumer decide which format is better on their own accord? Wouldn't that really be the best option for consumers? Instead of separating them. Why the need to try and tangle the studio's up with contracts? Is it the only way to 'look' to be the 'better' choice?

Do you think that Sony will not delve into down loadable content themselves? Or any other movie studio for that matter? Why is MS so bad? Just because they are the ones to see this IS the future for some people?

Wouldn't the choice of having down loadable content and optical discs be to the benefit of everyone? Not just home theater enthusiasts? Why do you need one or the other. Why can't there be both?

Robert, no offense, but this is a bit like the pot calling the kettle black. As a paid employee of Microsoft, one of HD-DVD's chief corporate supporters, your job is to promote your company's interests, one of which Microsoft claims to be HD DVD. Don't talk to me about bias. At least I'm not getting paid for my opinions.
My name's Richard, by the way. And thanks for the detailed response you give here.

My job is certainly to promote my company's interests, and my bias is well understood: Microsoft is an entrenched and extremely active supporter of HD DVD. I trust there is no misunderstanding about our position.

Unfortunately, I don't believe you were able to attend the event -- I would hope when you had seen some of the related comments in context you would not have interpreted the quotes as you did. Where you made conclusions about our corporate strategy, I can assure you that your conclusions are incorrect.

I'm hardly inferring diabolical intent to Microsoft. However, this would not be the first time that a corporation, to further its own interests, acted strategically in the marketplace in a way that wasn't in the interests of consumers.
I am telling you point blank your conclusion is wrong. We are doing all we can to make sure HD DVD is successful by making sure it is the best possible product it can be.

Looking deeper, however, it seems to me that Microsoft has plenty at stake in this format war. Was it that Microsoft supported HD DVD because of HDi interactivity or VC-1, or rather was it because Blu-ray used BD-Java instead, and because Sony was building Blu-ray capability into the PS3, a directly competing game platform to Microsoft's Xbox 360? Or was it because, by your own admission, Microsoft believes the future of all home entertainment media is downloading? It seems to me that your company has plenty of reasons to get involved in the format war, having to do with its business interests, and little to do with the actual interests of film and home theater enthusiasts at places like AVS Forum.
Microsoft is deeply committed to making sure that HD DVD provides the best possible consumer experience. Please peruse other parts of AVS Forum, where Amir and Ben Waggoner detail at length about the extreme effort we are putting in to ensure the best possible video compressions. We do similar efforts to improve the interactive experiences on HD DVD with HDi, and we think have produced some really innovative results . We have the Xbox 360 product, which is selling very well, and in fact this week has a number of additional promotions that make it an even better value.

We would love the opportunity to come see you in person and discuss and detail all that we are doing for HD DVD, and why we think it is the best format for consumers -- particularly home theater enthusiasts.

Because what’s ACTUALLY good for that market is NOT TO HAVE A FORMAT WAR. What's actually good for all the enthusiasts here at AVS, is for there to be A SINGLE UNIFIED FORMAT. This format war did NOT have to happen, and I don’t recall Microsoft doing much to try to stop it.
I disagree that Microsoft has the power to end this format war. And it's not necessarily true that the format war has been universally bad, particularly for consumers: I believe the formats (both specifications and titles) have competed on functionality and features, and I certainly believe the low hardware prices we are seeing today is directly due to competition.

I have no doubt that there are many good people working on HD DVD at Microsoft. Don't turn this into some kind of political pissing contest please. What, are you going to say I'm insulting the troops in Iraq next? Give me a break. This isn't personal.
Then I apologize to you -- I felt insulted. As I said in my fist reply to this thread, Microsoft continues to be committed to the success of HD DVD. The reporter's quotes were quite out of context, but I felt your interpretation of those comments to deduce our corporate intent were, as I said, wildly interpretative and wrong. In addition, the interpretation of the quotes seemed to me to be so far out of whack that it felt to me to be a biased -- there was, for example, no matching call to Sony to change their position on Blu-ray.

Let me be crystal clear: We actively support and do whatever we can to make sure HD DVD is the best product that it can be. We of course have other businesses that utilize other delivery formats, but they are not intended to compete with optical delivery. We can not predict the future, and do not know when, if ever, other forms of content delivery will overtake optical.

I can tell you this for sure: there aren't a lot of DVD producers who are excited about an all downloading future. I find it deeply disappointing that the film and home theater enthusiast market would be willing to sacrifice discs for downloads. If and when that happens, it'll be a very sad day for us all.
Another clarification from the article: I never intended to imply that digital downloads are intended to replace optical or other delivery methods. Indeed I would expect them to continue in parallel for a very long time, as there are consumers who prefer one delivery method over the other.

My name's Richard, by the way. And thanks for the detailed response you give here.

My job is certainly to promote my company's interests, and my bias is well understood: Microsoft is an entrenched and extremely active supporter of HD-DVD. I trust there is no misunderstanding about our position.

Unfortunately, I don't believe you were able to attend the event -- I would hope when you had seen some of the related comments in context you would not have interpreted the quotes as you did. Where you made conclusions about our corporate strategy, I can assure you that your conclusions are incorrect.


I am telling you point blank your conclusion is wrong. We are doing all we can to make sure HD-DVD is successful by making sure it is the best possible product it can be.


Microsoft is deeply committed to making sure that HD-DVD provides the best possible consumer experience. Please peruse other parts of AVS Forum, where Amir and Ben Waggoner detail at length about the extreme effort we are putting in to ensure the best possible video compressions. We do similar efforts to improve the interactive experiences on HD-DVD with HDi, and we think have produced some really innovative results . We have the Xbox 360 product, which is selling very well, and in fact this week has a number of additional promotions that make it an even better value.

We would love the opportunity to come see you in person and discuss and detail all that we are doing for HD-DVD, and why we think it is the best format for consumers -- particularly home theater enthusiasts.


I disagree that Microsoft has the power to end this format war. And it's not necessarily true that the format war has been universally bad, particularly for consumers: I believe the formats (both specifications and titles) have competed on functionality and features, and I certainly believe the low hardware prices we are seeing today is directly due to competition.


Then I apologize to you -- I felt insulted. As I said in my fist reply to this thread, Microsoft continues to be committed to the success of HD-DVD. The reporter's quotes were quite out of context, but I felt your interpretation of those comments to deduce our corporate intent were, as I said, wildly interpretative and wrong. In addition, the interpretation of the quotes seemed to me to be so far out of whack that it felt to me to be a biased -- there was, for example, no matching call to Sony to change their position on Blu-ray.

Let me be crystal clear: We actively support and do whatever we can to make sure HD-DVD is the best product that it can be. We of course have other businesses that utilize other delivery formats, but they are not intended to compete with optical delivery. We can not predict the future, and do not know when, if ever, other forms of content delivery will overtake optical.


Another clarification from the article: I never intended to imply that digital downloads are intended to replace optical or other delivery methods. Indeed I would expect them to continue in parallel for a very long time, as there are consumers who prefer one delivery method over the other.

Is it Microsoft's intention for HD DVD to become the clear winner and defacto standard over Blu-ray or are you intending to have two competing formats with no clear winner indefinitely?

Do you understand that people see a stalemate as a bonus for downloadable content providers such as Microsoft?

I support both formats and will continue to as long as their is content on both that I want to buy. Nothing Bill says is going to sway me into selling off 90+ HD-DVD's or not buy an exclusive HD-DVD for a movie I like. While the general idea of the format war is a bummer it has drove down prices and caused the quality of releases on both formats to increase a lot faster had there been no format war at all.

I'm not going to miss out on HD content I want because a bunch of Executives couldn't reach an agreement on a single HD format. Sorry Bill it's simply not going to happen. The format war is NOW a reality, both formats are niche formats but both have a large enough user base with a large enough amount of content that neither are going to disappear over night. It's something we are going to have to live with right now and seeing as I have the means I'm going to buy HD discs on which ever format I see fit.

Get over it and move on with your life, all you are doing is stirring controversy to try and drive up hits to your web site and in the process destroying any bit of credibility your site ever had by spinning facts, out of context quotes and pushing bias agendas. Your site will now never be known as a balanced and fair and accurate delivery of news because of your recent tactics.

Robert, no offense, but this is a bit like the pot calling the kettle black. As a paid employee of Microsoft, one of HD-DVD's chief corporate supporters, your job is to promote your company's interests, one of which Microsoft claims to be HD-DVD. Don't talk to me about bias. At least I'm not getting paid for my opinions.
...

Mr. Hunt,

While I share your sentiment about the dangers of a "download only" future, I do not and cannot share your opinion about which format deserves to prosper and which deserves to die a quick and miserable death.

Microsoft and Sony supported the formats they did to suit their business strategy, and it is not mine or your business to question that. We as the consumers have to deal with the cards dealt to us. If BD offered a value to the customer that would obviate the need to look at HD-DVD, then there wouldn't be a format war. It is BD's ineptitude that is prolonging this war, and not Microsoft or the consumers choosing HD-DVD for whatever reasons.

It is not just us bickering fools on the AVS HD-DVD forums that are buying the HD-DVDs and prolonging this war for you. There are genuine AV enthusiasts outside of AVS choosing HD-DVD based on a value proposition they find appealing.

You should perhaps reconsider your stand on what or who is prolonging this war, and let us know if while pointing a finger at HD-DVD, where the other four fingers point at? Look into your dear format for its shortcomings before you start blaming its competitors for giving something that the consumers want.

Don't talk to me about bias. At least I'm not getting paid for my opinions.


One must wonder, what do you get paid for if not you're opinions? You're an editor, no? Are you doing construction on the side? :)

Anyway, the time to kill one of the formats was at the beginning, before videophiles bought in. If you wanted to be useful, you should have had a stance back then. Now the toothpaste is out of the tube, and we are left to make the best of it. Too many videophiles have bought in, (and no, you're not some modern day Cicero that will suddenly convince HD DVD supporters to stop supporting their format.) We will simply have to wait until dual format player become affordable for the mass market to get a foothold. There's no other way around it.

To summarize: No, HD DVD supporters won't stop buying HD DVD's, even if you say "pretty please." No, Toshiba and MS won't stop supporting HD DVD. Yes, prices of dual format players will get low enough that the subject will be moot, and yes, someday you'll wonder why you burnt so many bridges on this stupid format war.

I personally find it appalling that Mr. Hunt claims to be "the good guy" looking out for us. Trying to unify the enthusiast market by trying to end the war. When all he has done is act to serve as a wedge to drive the competing format enthusiasts further apart.

Microsoft is deeply committed to making sure that HD-DVD provides the best possible consumer experience.

Its "HD DVD". No hyphen.

The reporter's quotes were quite out of context, but I felt your interpretation of those comments to deduce our corporate intent were, as I said, wildly interpretative and wrong. In addition, the interpretation of the quotes seemed to me to be so far out of whack that it felt to me to be a biased -- there was, for example, no matching call to Sony to change their position on Blu-ray.


So, instead of attacking the reporter not doing his job correctly, you attack Bill for interpreting the article incorrectly, even though you knew the article was incorrect? That seems very political to me, especially since I couldn't tell you the name of the person who wrote the article, but Bill Hunt is known.

As for the Sony comment, why should a company with HD content and HD CE be forced to conceal their voice? On the other hand, why should Microsoft, a company with no HD content and no HD CE not be forced to conceal their voice? Sony has an obvious business interest in Blu-ray/HD DVD. Microsoft does not (unless you want to divulge something that hasn't been brought up and disproven before).

HD-DVD gave me the option of buying into HD at a reasonable price. The fact that Blu-Ray hasn't delivered a product that meets my price point is their fault, not mine. Were it not for HD-DVD, I wouldn't be able to support HD optical at all.

So, instead of attacking the reporter not doing his job correctly, you attack Bill for interpreting the article incorrectly, even though you knew the article was incorrect? That seems very political to me, especially since I couldn't tell you the name of the person who wrote the article, but Bill Hunt is known.


Because Bill took an inch and ran a mile with it.

It's one thing for the reporter to take comments out of context. It's another to take those comments that obviously came second hand and then act as if you heard it from the horses mouth himself and then make false accusations.

But as long as it goes with what you want to hear its all kosher I suppose.

Sony has an obvious business interest in Blu-ray/HD DVD. Microsoft does not (unless you want to divulge something that hasn't been brought up and disproven before).

They created the interactivity layer of HD DVD, which BD refused to adopt, no? And a lower bitrate format is more computer friendly, and combined with the lack of BD+, HD DVD is a better fit for MS. I think it is clear why MS would support HD DVD over BD. But I understand others feel differently.

One must wonder, what do you get paid for if not you're opinions? You're an editor, no? Are you doing construction on the side?
Quote of the day. :)
J

Its "HD DVD". No hyphen.



So, instead of attacking the reporter not doing his job correctly, you attack Bill for interpreting the article incorrectly, even though you knew the article was incorrect? That seems very political to me, especially since I couldn't tell you the name of the person who wrote the article, but Bill Hunt is known.

If you go read RD's first reply in this thread, he did point out that the reporter made a mistake, and that Bill chose to single out MS for blame in the format war, and imparted diabolical "consumer unfriendly" intentions to further their future download business.

Did you happen to read that post too fast?

As for the Sony comment, why should a company with HD content and HD CE be forced to conceal their voice? On the other hand, why should Microsoft, a company with no HD content and no HD CE not be forced to conceal their voice? Sony has an obvious business interest in Blu-ray/HD DVD. Microsoft does not (unless you want to divulge something that hasn't been brought up and disproven before).

What are Xbox360 and the IPTV partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, DirecTV etc? For better or for worse, they have chosen a format that aligned well with their business strategy, just like Sony heralded BD technology to leverage its success into its consumer and production grade hardware businesses. Why fault one and let the other pass?

As for the Sony comment, why should a company with HD content and HD CE be forced to conceal their voice? On the other hand, why should Microsoft, a company with no HD content and no HD CE not be forced to conceal their voice? Sony has an obvious business interest in Blu-ray/HD DVD. Microsoft does not (unless you want to divulge something that hasn't been brought up and disproven before).

Perhaps I am mistaken, but your comments seem to be jaundiced against Microsoft. I'm not sure what your point is. Sony is no more pure, benevolent, or "correct" than Microsoft, and vice-versa. Microsoft has and has had many business interests, including multimedia, audio/video compression and streaming, game systems, and countless other areas for years now. If this bothers you (from the standpoint of an evil empire with monopolistic intentions), then I would expect Sony's move into the motion picture industry to bother you as well.

Bradley

It seems to me that MS *does* have a reason for HD DVD to succeed over Blu-Ray (outside of the XBox 360 vs PS3 battle) due to HD DVD making more use of MS' technologies (encryption, interactive content scripting, etc.), so I don't see why it should come as a surprise that they've chosen to side with HD DVD here. Quite to the contrary, it would seem foolish of them to side with Blu-Ray or even be format neutral when they have more to gain financially from HD DVD's success. They'd be doing their shareholders a disservice to do otherwise.

As for the future of downloadable movies over hard-copies...at the risk of getting attacked here, let me say that I personally have no problem with it. I think it's a shame that portable gaming consoles are still saddled with the kludginess of cartridges/discs. Imagine if you had to carry around a stack of discs whenever you ventured out with your laptop just to use your software. Most of my programming is already "virtual." My TiVo and cable DVR both record content that is broadcast over my cable TV connection. I did not buy each episode of Lost on disc this past season, and I was fine with that. As a videophile, I certainly don't want substandard high-def content forced down my throat, so I'm glad that these high-def DVD formats exist as an option while I wait for high-quality high-def fast-downloadable content to become a reality. It will also be good for those that want to own their movie collection in hard-copy format. For me, though, I'll be happy to be rid of my hard-copies. I consider most of what I spent on my laserdisc collection many years ago to have been wasted. I paid $35-40 per disc for movies I mostly watched once or twice and later sold them for a fraction of that when DVDs came out. I thought I wouldn't fall into the same habit when DVDs came out, but I still ended buying far too many movies I've watched only a couple of times.

I was an early adopter of DirecTV, paying about $1000 for the privilege. I was probably late to the game (but cutting edge compared to the general public) with laserdisc. I paid about $500-600 for my first 2nd generation Sony DVD player. This time, even if there weren't two competing high-def DVD formats, I just don't think I would have jumped into the game until player prices got under $300 (which is exactly what I did, having just recently purchased an HD DVD player for $250). If Toshiba had thrown in the towel, would there be a $250 Blu-Ray player available today? Would there even be one by the end of this year? I tend to think not. And I'm pretty sure that if the players remained in the $500+ range, the average consumer wouldn't jump in, even if there was no format war going on. No, I think the average consumer would be content with their DVDs and wait until a high def player crept into their impulse buy territory.

Take note of that last point Bill. If you truly are sincere in wanting some/any high-def format to succeed in the marketplace, then I believe that a low player price-point is what will do it. That's where I believe the "objective logic" you claim to have used to come to your decision is flawed. All of the studios in the world could support one format and ignore the other, and it wouldn't keep it from being a niche market if, from the mass market consumer's perspective, the cost of entry is high and the perceived benefits are subtle. I would argue that the benefits *are* subtle (if even existent at all) to the mass market, because the mass market doesn't have HDTVs yet, and of those that do, the majority are small enough such that from a normal viewing distance, the differences in PQ will be subtle. IMO, success today will be driven, then, more by the combination of hype (i.e., good marketing) and low player prices.

I'm wondering why this flamebait topic posted by the biggest and most biased Blu-Ray fanboy quoted from the most biased Blu-Ray blogsite on the internet has been allowed to remain open for so long? Sadomasochism anyone?

Josh,

So, instead of attacking the reporter not doing his job correctly, you attack Bill for interpreting the article incorrectly, even though you knew the article was incorrect? That seems very political to me, especially since I couldn't tell you the name of the person who wrote the article, but Bill Hunt is known.

The thing is, BD supporters really trounced Bill last summer, so the change of heart is actually interesting.

The other thing, since Bill has given up being objective, he has shown a tendency to slant his opinions and not necessarily interpret the information correctly. Here is an example from today.

First, Bill quotes Graeffo,

Says Universal Studios Home Entertainment EVP Ken Graffeo in the Reuters piece: "Consumers who are buying Playstation 3 are buying it as a game console. They're simply not buying it for watching as many high-definition movies as Sony said they would.

and then Bill concludes this

Interesting, except those numbers don't add up. HD-DVD claims to have 60% of the stand-alone HD players (presumably 20% more stand-alone players than Blu-ray)... and yet Blu-ray Disc software sales continue to outpace HD-DVD software by at least a 2 to 1 margin (see the latest Nielsen/VideoScan numbers above). Apparently, those PS3 owners are watching a few high-definition movies after all

Here is the thing - if Sony said, for example, that 90% of all PS3 owners would regularly buy and watch BD movies, Graffeo's statement is correct, and you could get the 2:1 sales advantage by a much smaller percentage of PS3 owners buying movies.

And yet Bill's implication is not that - he implies that Graffeo is wrong, and that lots of PS3 owners are watching movies.

It is this slanting of his conclusions to make BD "look good" that is problematic, just as he slanted his conclusions about MS.

And I'm sorry, but a PAID Microsoft employee coming in here calling me biased for my opinions is a hypocracy I simply can't let stand without reply. 'Nuff said.

Well said Bill, well said.

Thanks for posting Bill!

Seconded. The Digital Bits has been one of my favorite DVD sites since the Star Wars on DVD campaign. Now let's start up the Star Wars on Blu-ray campaign after putting down HDDVD. :D


I do. Just as I own Blu-ray players and movies. But I'm willing to sacrifice one of these two formats if it allows HD on disc to move forward as one united community again. I didn't care which format it was. When this thing dragged on too long, however, we sat down at The Digital Bits and looked at all the facts and trends and made the logical, non-emotional decision that Blu-ray had the best chance to survive long term, and so that's the format we decided to support.

That about sums up my thoughts on the issue to a T. I had HDDVD first (through my add-on) but the day & date releases I prefer are overwhemlingly Blu-ray.

Perhaps I am mistaken, but your comments seem to be jaundiced against Microsoft. I'm not sure what your point is. Sony is no more pure, benevolent, or "correct" than Microsoft, and vice-versa. Microsoft has and has had many business interests, including multimedia, audio/video compression and streaming, game systems, and countless other areas for years now. If this bothers you (from the standpoint of an evil empire with monopolistic intentions), then I would expect Sony's move into the motion picture industry to bother you as well.

Bradley

Great post.

How come MS is "evil" for entering into the "CE market they know nothing about" and Sony gets a free pass for entering into the motion picture business when all it has done is allow them to limit media distribution to the format of their choice?

The double standards from the BD proponents are truly mind boggling.

Hardly. But the tone of the discussion around here is only hurting this community, not helping it.
These words are about 2 years too late.

As for this format war (or any other fomat war that has gone to consumers) it takes years before one side wins or loses. Nothing new to see here. Move along.

As for DVD vs Divx, it really wasn't a format war as all DVD's played on a Divx machine.

I disagree that Microsoft has the power to end this format war. And it's not necessarily true that the format war has been universally bad, particularly for consumers: I believe the formats (both specifications and titles) have competed on functionality and features, and I certainly believe the low hardware prices we are seeing today is directly due to competition.

HDDVD is supported by a tripod of corporate interests: 1 x Consumer Electronics / old technology entity: Toshiba, 1 x Motion Pictures Studio: Universal, and 1 x IT/New technology company: Microsoft. If any of those legs is knocked out by a move to neutrality, how is it possible for HDDVD to not fall?

Well said Bill, well said.

I don't think it was well said at all. In fact, I think it was pretty ignorant.

Of course an MS spokesman is biased, that's not surprising at all. He is supposed to be biased, and wouldn't deny the charge. But Mr. Hunt is supposed to be somewhat objective, so the allegation of bias against him is material. I would guess he denies it, and that's why it's not a similar situation.

Perhaps I am mistaken, but your comments seem to be jaundiced against Microsoft. I'm not sure what your point is. Sony is no more pure, benevolent, or "correct" than Microsoft, and vice-versa. Microsoft has and has had many business interests, including multimedia, audio/video compression and streaming, game systems, and countless other areas for years now. If this bothers you (from the standpoint of an evil empire with monopolistic intentions), then I would expect Sony's move into the motion picture industry to bother you as well.

Bradley

Since you were the only one to respond to my comments unemotionally, I will respond to you.

I have no problem with Microsoft's desire to diversify their business. That is their right. What I have a problem with, is that Microsoft has been made the leader of the movement, and thus has artificially swayed consumer interest by namesake only.

If you were to get a group of high ranking execs together to discuss the next generation of movie distribution, who would you need? Well, first off you need the people who own the movies. You can't distribute movies without actually having the content, so inviting movie studio execs makes sense. Next, the consumer needs to watch the movie once they buy it. Since the main way consumers watch movies is still via TV, you're going to need consumer electronics execs there. So, you invite all the execs from major consumer electronics manufacturers.

And that's about it.

You have the movies, and you have the right people in order to get those movies onto the transport medium and then onto consumers displays. All bases covered.

You then have to address the lower tier issues. Things like security, interactivity, reliability, availability, etc. This is where, after you have your idea layed out, you go to companies to get ideas on how to improve on the idea, not re-create it. Adding a security layer or making it more interactive does not change the transport medium, it only improves on it.

It is this lower tier where I see Microsoft. Along with Sun Microsystems, AACS, and all the other companies who made small contributions to making the transport medium better. They are support companies who stay out of the spot light and let the companies with a real interest do the fighting (before anyone mentions Sun, they would talk just as loud for HD DVD if they would have adopted Java; and VC-1 is used by Blu-ray studios).

Yet somehow, in all the shuffling, the company in a lower tier support position has made its way to the top. Usually, it is bad business to fight against competition that could possibly use your product (is anyone surprised VC-1 hasn't taken off on Blu-ray when Microsoft so adamantly fights against it?). Yet, Microsoft has chosen this route. What purpose does a support company have in advancing one competitor over another?

Microsoft has made it clear in this thread that VOD is coming with or with out the success of HD DVD... so why do they need it?

Unless there is so ulterior motive...

Says the guys making one inflammatory statement after another! :eek:

I think you're mistaking inflammatory for personal. I'm not making this personal. I'm just saying what I believe to be true, and there's a small group of people who don't like it and are prone to lashing out. I thought my Soapbox argument was very logically and rationally stated. The reactions here and elsewhere, however, aren't surprising given what's happened to this community as a result of the format war. Need I remind everyone again that I didn't start this format war? And that I did everything I could to try to see that it never happened? Sadly, money trumps common sense these days.

Mind you, I still buy music on disc, how many of you can say the same?

Me! Me! :)
I have never paid for a download and don't plan on it. Even today's current CDs the way they are mastered, supehot and compressed sound like crap to me compared to just several years ago. The mp3's...? ugh...

Hello Bill.

I choose HD DVD and don't plan on Blu ray regardless of your arguments.

And more power to you. All the best.

I don't think it was well said at all. In fact, I think it was pretty ignorant.

Of course an MS spokesman is biased, that's not surprising at all. He is supposed to be biased, and wouldn't deny the charge. But Mr. Hunt is supposed to be somewhat objective, so the allegation of bias against him is material. I would guess he denies it, and that's why it's not a similar situation.
Yes, they are both biased, and everyone knows it. This entire thread is nothing but a gathering of Microsoft bashers.

Of course an MS spokesman is biased, that's not surprising at all.

What's your excuse? :p

Since you were the only one to respond to my comments unemotionally, I will respond to you.

I have no problem with Microsoft's desire to diversify their business. That is their right. What I have a problem with, is that Microsoft has been made the leader of the movement, and thus has artificially swayed consumer interest by namesake only.

If you were to get a group of high ranking execs together to discuss the next generation of movie distribution, who would you need? Well, first off you need the people who own the movies. You can't distribute movies without actually having the content, so inviting movie studio execs makes sense. Next, the consumer needs to watch the movie once they buy it. Since the main way consumers watch movies is still via TV, you're going to need consumer electronics execs there. So, you invite all the execs from major consumer electronics manufacturers.

And that's about it.

You have the movies, and you have the right people in order to get those movies onto the transport medium and then onto consumers displays. All bases covered.

You then have to address the lower tier issues. Things like security, interactivity, reliability, availability, etc. This is where, after you have your idea layed out, you go to companies to get ideas on how to improve on the idea, not re-create it. Adding a security layer or making it more interactive does not change the transport medium, it only improves on it.

It is this lower tier where I see Microsoft. Along with Sun Microsystems, AACS, and all the other companies who made small contributions to making the transport medium better. They are support companies who stay out of the spot light and let the companies with a real interest do the fighting (before anyone mentions Sun, they would talk just as loud for HD DVD if they would have adopted Java; and VC-1 is used by Blu-ray studios).

Yet somehow, in all the shuffling, the company in a lower tier support position has made its way to the top. Usually, it is bad business to fight against competition that could possibly use your product (is anyone surprised VC-1 hasn't taken off on Blu-ray when Microsoft so adamantly fights against it?). Yet, Microsoft has chosen this route. What purpose does a support company have in advancing one competitor over another?

Microsoft has made it clear in this thread that VOD is coming with or with out the success of HD DVD... so why do they need it?

Unless there is so ulterior motive...

I don't know... but maybe the millions of dollars MS is making off of Xbox add on sales is their motive?

Or maybe they would like to see the format adopted that uses the most MS technology (HDi and VC1)?

Nothing in your post justifies painting MS as a villain other than your belief that they have somehow "usurped" the lead position in the HD DVD battle.

You seem far too bright to actually believe that people are buying HD DVD or not buying Blu-Ray based on MS having a dog in the fight.

Is it Microsoft's intention for HD DVD to become the clear winner and defacto standard over Blu-ray or are you intending to have two competing formats with no clear winner indefinitely?

Do you understand that people see a stalemate as a bonus for downloadable content providers such as Microsoft?

Good questions but don't expect an honest answer. ;)

I don't think these are foregone conclusions, that BD's success will somehow stave off VOD/downloading, or that HD-DVD's continued existance will doom both BD and HD-DVD to extinction or irrelevancy. You're entitled to your opinion, of course, but I find these assertions to be a bit dire, premature, and pessimistic.

Instead of making a plea to AVS enthusiasts and consumers at large to support BD, why not make a plea for all studios to go format neutral? Don't you think that's the thing that really hurts consumers: being "punished"for choosing one format or the other? Isn't that the single worst part about the "war"?

Bradley

Very good summation. The only thing I will add is that my job as a consumer is not to bear the burden of having to proactively end the format war. If both formats fail due to the competing formats, then truly they failed in 2005 when a unified format could not be agreed upon.

I'd be curious to know Bill Hunt's opinion of dual-format players.

My name's Richard, by the way. And thanks for the detailed response you give here.

My bad. And no problem. I wish I had attended the conference, but other meetings kept me away unfortunately.

We would love the opportunity to come see you in person and discuss and detail all that we are doing for HD DVD, and why we think it is the best format for consumers -- particularly home theater enthusiasts.

I would certainly welcome this. You can feel free to contact me at billhunt@thedigitalbits.com, and I'd be happy to meet with you.

I've said many times however, that all things being basically equal, content wins. HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc are home video formats. HD-DVD has but a single major exclusive studio. Blu-ray Disc has five. Each format may have its respective technical advantages, but the A/V quality is basically equal and in my experience interactivity is HIGHLY overrated. Film and TV is a linear experience, and most of the interactivity is just bells and whistles which don't enhance the film or TV experience. I don't buy high-def discs to play games or to download screen savers. I have an Xbox and a PC for that. I buy these discs to watch movies. And content is king.

I think you're mistaking inflammatory for personal. I'm not making this personal. I'm just saying what I believe to be true, and there's a small group of people who don't like it and are prone to lashing out. I thought my Soapbox argument was very logically and rationally stated. The reactions here and elsewhere, however, aren't surprising given what's happened to this community as a result of the format war. Need I remind everyone again that I didn't start this format war? And that I did everything I could to try to see that it never happened? Sadly, money trumps common sense these days.

I can't say for certain how it goes at other forums but if anyone says anything negative about HD DVD here at AVS, all s**t breaks loose. Being that you run your own site which reaches a large audience, you needed to expect the HD DVD fanboys to take it personal when you chose Blu-ray as the future of high def disc over their precious. Words cannot describe how shocked HD DVD owners that their beloved lost it's lead in this format war in just a couple of months since the PS3 came out. To make it more frustrating for them, Blu-ray's lead just keeps growing. And really, how can anyone not have expected this from a format with nearly all of the CE and studios behind it? :rolleyes:

I can't say for certain how it goes at other forums but if anyone says anything negative about HD DVD here at AVS, all s**t breaks loose. Being that you run your own site which reaches a large audience, you needed to expect the HD DVD fanboys to take it personal when you chose Blu-ray as the future of high def disc over their precious. Words cannot describe how shocked HD DVD owners that their beloved lost it's lead in this format war in just a couple of months since the PS3 came out. To make it more frustrating for them, Blu-ray's lead just keeps growing. And really, how can anyone not have expected this from a format with nearly all of the CE and studios behind it? :rolleyes:

Well said and dead on.

I can't say for certain how it goes at other forums but if anyone says anything negative about HD DVD here at AVS, all s**t breaks loose.

Pot, meet kettle.

Well said and dead on.

Good Marklar, yes! :)

Me! Me! :)
I have never paid for a download and don't plan on it. Even today's current CDs the way they are mastered, supehot and compressed sound like crap to me compared to just several years ago. The mp3's...? ugh...

Cool. I say we just sit in the corner and fondle our shiny discs while the other kids fight, k?

I wasn't reactionary or rude, yet Bill chose to ignore my (and other) comments in favour of those that support his argument or are patently antagonistic. So be it, I guess. I had hoped for better, and and least a mild recognition that this move to a dogmatic attacking of all things HD is almost as pathetic as the reactionary attack of all things Sony/BD. Not only is there a middle ground, there's a clear and concise argument to be made if you support HD-DVD over BD or BD over HD-DVD. I do not think the soapbox, nor the AICN article that prompted it, did this job as effectively as many of the more informative and dispassionate members of AVS have done (you know who you are).

Bill must admit that as of right now, June 2007, given the fact that we're in the midst of this divide, that the safe bet it to wait it out. If you're buying one player, you're losing out on titles, period. If you want all titles available, buy two players (the LG just isn't a great solution now, imho). If you want Matrix AND Casablanca AND King Kong AND Pirates/Casino Royale/etc., then you need two players. If you want, make a stink about the lack of catalogue titles on BD. Make a stink about delays from FOX. CHOOSE BD if you want, but be realistic and helpful, and spend your energies making BD as good as on paper it's supposed to be. THEN I'll accept your argument at face value, rather than what appears to be, sadly, a petulent reaction to Harry's equally misguided claims.

Say what you will, Harry bought the player to first play Robin Hood, Excaliber and Kong. For those films, at this time, HD-DVD is better, nay, only choice. That said, I'm sure you all can see how this is far from the whole story.

Do you not also believe that MS is not the only party involved on either side who could have "prevented" this war?

Could Sony not have prevented this war? Couldn't anyone on the Blu-Ray side have also prevented the war? If so, why all the harsh words on just MS and for the HD-DVD side?

I've already addressed this in my editorial comments on The Bits. Sure Sony could have ended this war. So could have Toshiba. But neither side wanted to give up the massive royalty payments which Toshiba made on the DVD disc structure patients. Sony caved in when it came time to negotiate the DVD format and lost out on huge sums of money that went to Toshiba. When it came time to negotiate high-def, Sony didn't want to cave again, and Toshiba wasn't about to share those royalty payments. By what interest does Microsoft have in this, other than promoting HDi, VC-1, Xbox 360 and Xbox Live, and fielding their own competative alternative to both BD-Java and Sony's PS3? Sony and Toshiba at least make home theater hardware.

One must wonder, what do you get paid for if not you're opinions? You're an editor, no? Are you doing construction on the side? :)

Anyway, the time to kill one of the formats was at the beginning, before videophiles bought in. If you wanted to be useful, you should have had a stance back then. Now the toothpaste is out of the tube, and we are left to make the best of it. Too many videophiles have bought in, (and no, you're not some modern day Cicero that will suddenly convince HD DVD supporters to stop supporting their format.) We will simply have to wait until dual format player become affordable for the mass market to get a foothold. There's no other way around it.

To summarize: No, HD DVD supporters won't stop buying HD DVD's, even if you say "pretty please." No, Toshiba and MS won't stop supporting HD DVD. Yes, prices of dual format players will get low enough that the subject will be moot, and yes, someday you'll wonder why you burnt so many bridges on this stupid format war.

You're being disingenuous. I'm not paid to promote a specific opinion, unlike those who actually work for Microsoft, Sony or Toshiba. Though many here chose to believe otherwise. I don't begrudge anyone the enjoyment of their HD format of choice. Nevertheless, it seems the HD-DVD faithful needs a bad guy to pin their frustrations on. I continue to be surprised that there are people who feel that the magic answer to all this is going to be dual format players. Those sure did wonders for DVD-Audio and SACD. Mass market confusion is what will keep both of these formats from thriving, and that confusion is caused by the format war. Low prices and combo players will do little to solve this problem. Someday I fear (in the not too distant future at this rate), HD fans will wonder why hardly anyone is making movies for their $299 HD-DVD and $499 Blu-ray disc players anymore.

In the meantime . . .

I just got Mullholland Drive and Cruel Intentions from the mail. I'm all set for tonight :p

Hence, Xylon is a MS employee. :rolleyes:

Shhhh.

I'm a double agent.

These words are about 2 years too late.

Apparently.

As for this format war (or any other fomat war that has gone to consumers) it takes years before one side wins or loses. Nothing new to see here. Move along.

As for DVD vs Divx, it really wasn't a format war as all DVD's played on a Divx machine.

My point was, DVD took off because once Divx died, ALL of the Hollywood studios moved to support it. That happened just as prices for the hardware became mass-market reasonable, and the rest is history. We'll be lucky if the high-def disc market reaches laserdisc size at this rate.

You're being disingenuous. I'm not paid to promote a specific opinion, unlike those who actually work for Microsoft, Sony or Toshiba. Though many here chose to believe otherwise. I don't begrudge anyone the enjoyment of their HD format of choice. Nevertheless, it seems the HD-DVD faithful needs a bad guy to pin their frustrations on. I continue to be surprised that there are people who feel that the magic answer to all this is going to be dual format players. Those sure did wonders for DVD-Audio and SACD. Mass market confusion is what will keep both of these formats from thriving, and that confusion is caused by the format war. Low prices and combo players will do little to solve this problem. Someday I fear (in the not too distant future at this rate), HD fans will wonder why hardly anyone is making movies for their $299 HD-DVD and $499 Blu-ray disc players anymore.

Bill,

You need to stop blaming the consumers who have decided to purchase the format that works best for them. You continue to claim you don't begrudge anyone their choice and then lash out at the "HD-DVD faithful" for ruining it for Blu-Ray.

The only people to be blamed are the studios, Toshiba and Sony. And they all deserve a fair share of the blame.

You have, as of late, taken every opportunity to bash MS and Tosh and yet turn a blind eye towards problems in the BD camp.

Why aren't you warning your readers about the dangers of buying expensive BD machines that might not meet the final BD spec?

Mr. JackBee, your post there represents the typical smear campaign being waged by the BDA. Your comment, like a lot of what Bill has been writing is totally false and designed to misrepresent the truth in the most obvious way to push his own personal interests (no different than what someone from MSFT or Sony or Tosh would do). MSFT posters unlike BDA posters have been pretty open about their affiliation. It is BDA posters that seldom if ever disclose their affiliation.

Your tactic of making up a lie and repeating it enough times so that some folks will believe it, is going to fail (hopefully). People are smart enough to see through this garbage.....

Yes, they are both biased, and everyone knows it. This entire thread is nothing but a gathering of Microsoft bashers.

Which is interesting. I've never been called a Microsoft basher before. I'm a died in the wool, John Hodgman-esque PC guy, and an Xbox 360 player. I guess all it takes to become a basher is not enthusiastically embracing one Microsoft product? Zunes for everyone!

Is it Microsoft's intention for HD DVD to become the clear winner and defacto standard over Blu-ray or are you intending to have two competing formats with no clear winner indefinitely?

Do you understand that people see a stalemate as a bonus for downloadable content providers such as Microsoft?

Ah ha! Now we see the violence that's inherent in the system... ;)

What's your excuse? :p

Who me? I just enjoy making random and baseless accusations.... it's almost as though I'm compensating for something.... :)

Which is interesting. I've never been called a Microsoft basher before. I'm a died in the wool, John Hodgman-esque PC guy, and an Xbox 360 player. I guess all it takes to become a basher is not enthusiastically embracing one Microsoft product? Zunes for everyone!

Well.... reading between the lines of one of your previous comments... it would seem to me that you have some sort of issue or feeling that Microsoft doesn't belong in the HD arena:

By what interest does Microsoft have in this, other than promoting HDi, VC-1, Xbox 360 and Xbox Live, and fielding their own competative alternative to both BD-Java and Sony's PS3? Sony and Toshiba at least make home theater hardware.

Those comments aside, I was speaking of the thread participants in general. Not yourself specifically, but if you feel the need to defend yourself, so be it.

The only people to be blamed are the studios, Toshiba and Sony. And they all deserve a fair share of the blame.


Don't forget the rest of DVD Forum that decided BDA had better ideas for High Def.


Why aren't you warning your readers about the dangers of buying expensive BD machines that might not meet the final BD spec?

Because Blu-ray's long term survival is not nearly as doubtul as HDDVDs? That even if BDA somehow completely caved, it would still be a superior format for data storage and would still be used for PS3.

To say nothing of the fact that noone credibly doubts future Blu-rays will play on the new spec players, even if they have to go into a menu to watch the secondary video feed (just like they've been doing on DVD for years), even if they can't watch 2 video feeds at the same time.

Mr. JackBee, your post there represents the typical smear campaign being waged by the BDA. Your comment, like a lot of what Bill has been writing is totally false and designed to misrepresent the truth in the most obvious way to push his own personal interests (no different than what someone from MSFT or Sony or Tosh would do). MSFT posters unlike BDA posters have been pretty open about their affiliation. It is BDA posters that seldom if ever disclose their affiliation.

Your tactic of making up a lie and repeating it enough times so that some folks will believe it, is going to fail (hopefully). People are smart enough to see through this garbage.....

I agree. It's this kind of "win at all costs" attitude that the BD folks have that has really turned me off to the format and kept me from even contemplating going neutral at this time.

They don't seem to have ANY problem with lying, repeatedly, if they think it will turn off even one potential buyer from the HD DVD format. In this very thread we have MS refuting Bill Hunts claims and then Bill and others basically come in and say, "we know what you're saying, but we will continue too spread the FUD that MS is out to derail both formats".

If BD has so many damn advantages then why do the BD folks need to crap in every positive HD-DVD thread that emerges at AVS?

Very good summation. The only thing I will add is that my job as a consumer is not to bear the burden of having to proactively end the format war. If both formats fail due to the competing formats, then truly they failed in 2005 when a unified format could not be agreed upon.

I'd be curious to know Bill Hunt's opinion of dual-format players.

Format neutral studios and lots of dual-format players would be FANTASTIC for early adopters and enthusiasts, but they aren't going to address the root problem here, which is that mass confusion about which format to buy is going to keep the vast majority of consumers from ever actually buying either format. Most people will go to the store, see three different formats and decide to just stick with DVD. In that circumstance, studio enthusiasm for each format will gradually wane, just as it did with DVD-Audio and SACD, and both formats will fade quietly away. Who wins in that scenario? Certainly not enthusiasts. Downloading enthusiasts maybe.

Don't forget the rest of DVD Forum that decided BDA had better ideas for High Def.



Because Blu-ray's long term survival is not nearly as doubtul as HDDVDs? That even if BDA somehow completely caved, it would still be a superior format for data storage and would still be used for PS3.

To say nothing of the fact that noone credibly doubts future Blu-rays will play on the new spec players, even if they have to go into a menu to watch the secondary video feed (just like they've been doing on DVD for years), even if they can't watch 2 video feeds at the same time.

I would say that the future of both formats is definitely in doubt. Optical storage on the PC is dead. DEAD!

And does anyone really care that Sony has had to spend billions building plants to stamp discs for their PS3s? Honestly, why should we care OR fund it?

I can't say for certain how it goes at other forums but if anyone says anything negative about HD DVD here at AVS, all s**t breaks loose. Being that you run your own site which reaches a large audience, you needed to expect the HD DVD fanboys to take it personal when you chose Blu-ray as the future of high def disc over their precious. Words cannot describe how shocked HD DVD owners that their beloved lost it's lead in this format war in just a couple of months since the PS3 came out. To make it more frustrating for them, Blu-ray's lead just keeps growing. And really, how can anyone not have expected this from a format with nearly all of the CE and studios behind it? :rolleyes:

Oh please. So if something bad is said about blu ray I guess everyone acts totally mature and goes about their day humming the smurfs song.

"studios behind it"? LOL.

Bill,

You need to stop blaming the consumers who have decided to purchase the format that works best for them. You continue to claim you don't begrudge anyone their choice and then lash out at the "HD-DVD faithful" for ruining it for Blu-Ray.

I have never blamed consumers for anything. I do however, blame a small select group of the HD-DVD faithful (and the Blu-ray faithful) for lashing out against each other and really making a muddle of things for enthusiasts.

The only people to be blamed are the studios, Toshiba and Sony. And they all deserve a fair share of the blame.

Agreed. But I would add Microsoft to this list as well.

You have, as of late, taken every opportunity to bash MS and Tosh and yet turn a blind eye towards problems in the BD camp.

Why aren't you warning your readers about the dangers of buying expensive BD machines that might not meet the final BD spec?

Actually I have mentioned this on The Bits. And I'm even now looking into reports of BD laser rot on select discs. I've also scolded the BD supporting studios (and the HD-DVD studios too) for repeatedly for clogging up their discs with interactive bells and whistles that few care about and that require new firmware downloads to work, and cause nothing but frustration. I was very critical of Samsung's early BD player, and the quality of the early BD titles. And we've reviewed far more HD-DVD titles than Blu-ray to this day on The Bits.

And yet, despite all that, a select few here have continued to espouse the view that we're the "Blu Bits" since before this format war began, and LONG before we ever decided to take sides. Too many people here are seeing only what they want to see, and agreeing only with those who support their conculsions. At The Bits, we have repeatedly been willing to change our minds about both formats, have been both critical and positive about both formats, and have even to this day said that if circumstances were to change, we'd keep an open mind and be willing to change our opinions. I think there are a few here at AVS who can't say as much.

Those comments aside, I was speaking of the thread participants in general.

Fair enough.

Well.... reading between the lines of one of your previous comments... it would seem to me that you have some sort of issue or feeling that Microsoft doesn't belong in the HD arena:

That's partially true, because I think their primary interest is in softening up the home video disc market so they can be a major player in the future downloading arena. They have a right to be involved just like anyone else I suppose. I just dislike that they've helped to fuel a format war that didn't have to be, and that might otherwise be over now. The Hollywood studios and consumer electronics manufacturers have an obvious reason to be involved. Microsoft's reasons I think are a little more dubious.

As usual, it's been fun debating with you all, but as usual... real life beckons.

Best to all of you... yes, even to those of you who think I'm an ***hole. ;)

Well.... reading between the lines of one of your previous comments... it would seem to me that you have some sort of issue or feeling that Microsoft doesn't belong in the HD arena:



Those comments aside, I was speaking of the thread participants in general. Not yourself specifically, but if you feel the need to defend yourself, so be it.



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Ha! That was funny, briankmonkey. Thanks for a good laugh to round out the day. ;)

Format neutral studios and lots of dual-format players would be FANTASTIC for early adopters and enthusiasts, but they aren't going to address the root problem here, which is that mass confusion about which format to buy is going to keep the vast majority of consumers from ever actually buying either format. Most people will go to the store, see three different formats and decide to just stick with DVD. In that circumstance, studio enthusiasm for each format will gradually wane, just as it did with DVD-Audio and SACD, and both formats will fade quietly away. Who wins in that scenario? Certainly not enthusiasts. Downloading enthusiasts maybe.


I don't know where you get this stuff: "mass confusion". This is a notion created by internet sites/the mass media. Give people some bloody credit. First of all, the market is a high definition market. Those coming from the market are already astute enough to know they want high definition, not all of them but a significant enough portion.

Secondly, the prices that the hardware is dropping to makes the purchase cost of a player almost a non-issue. Are they mortgaging their future? Are they taking a loan out and using the equity in their house as collateral? Are they sacrificing their first born? Please. The cost of players is now so low and dropping further as to make any mistake on choice almost irrelevant. It is sites like yours and the mass media which perpetuates these hysterical conclusions.

In any event, to quote R Doherty again on this thread I find Bill Hunt's column to be wildly interpretive, biased, and wrong. Microsoft is dedicated to making sure HD-DVD is a fully successful next-generation optical format, and to infer diabolical intent is insulting to the very large number of employees who are dedicating their entire working life to HD-DVD's technical and business success. Enough said about that.

Ha! That was funny, briankmonkey. Thanks for a good laugh to round out the day. ;)

Any time. That's what this board is good for :D

You're being disingenuous. I'm not paid to promote a specific opinion, unlike those who actually work for Microsoft, Sony or Toshiba. .

And that's why a charge of bias against you is bad, and one against them is self-evident. Of course they are biased. And yet you use the "pot/kettle" defense to pretend that if they're biased then it's okay for you to be.


I continue to be surprised that there are people who feel that the magic answer to all this is going to be dual format players. Those sure did wonders for DVD-Audio and SACD. Mass market confusion is what will keep both of these formats from thriving, and that confusion is caused by the format war. Low prices and combo players will do little to solve this problem. Someday I fear (in the not too distant future at this rate), HD fans will wonder why hardly anyone is making movies for their $299 HD-DVD and $499 Blu-ray disc players anymore.

You shouldn't be surprised. After all, most of the respected market research analyst believe dual format players are the future. Link (http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070125-8702.html) and link (http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/news.phtml/4289/5313/blu-ray-hd-dvd-high-def-format.phtml).

HD DVD and Blu-ray are features that are available for a DVD player. It's akin to DTS and Dolby. When the price point is low enough, people will want that feature. It's unlike DVD-A and SACD, which was a feature most people simply didn't want.(in fact, that analogy is too old and tired for this forum me thinks. It's been beaten to death.)

I know you will likely continue on the Blu-ray bandwagon, but I contend that at this point you are doing more harm than good. Instead, you should reassure readers that dual format players are the future, so they can feel secure in which ever format they buy - so long as they buy one.

Format neutral studios and lots of dual-format players would be FANTASTIC for early adopters and enthusiasts, but they aren't going to address the root problem here, which is that mass confusion about which format to buy is going to keep the vast majority of consumers from ever actually buying either format.

Two problems with this statement. A false assumption leading to a logical fallacy.

Assuming consumers would have some level of confusion about formats even if all software were available in both makes no sense, and further, assuming the "vast majority of consumers" would adopt ANY new format at current pricing levels is equally far fetched.

The cold hard truth is, for the vast majority of consumers, DVD is "good enough" right now. The only thing, and I mean the only thing, that will prompt the majority of mainstream consumers to adopt a new HD format is if it does not cost them any more than they would have spent anyway. That means players readily available for under $200 and software that costs no more than DVD does now. Neither format is there now, and Blu-ray has no chance of being there soon. HD DVD, maybe by the end of this year for hardware, probably more like middle of '08. Even with cheaper players, the studios still have to do something about disc prices. $35 - $40 MSRP isn't going to fly no matter if they give the players away.

So, by way of a rebuttal to Mr. Hunt's position, I consider the format war a non-issue in the pace of mainstream adoption of HD disc media. If anything, the aggressive competition has likely brought more consumers into the HD formats earlier than had there been only one, because only one would be costing considerably more right now and there would very likely be a lot fewer titles on shelves.

The only possible happy conclusion (for consumers) to this format war is if all studios go neutral and let the market decide.

Meanwhile,

Is there a downloadable version of RELENTLESS ENEMIES otherwise?

And just to throw it not the mix - piracy is another reason where we are now.

Can anyone get RE to play on the 360 which is Microsoft CE hardware?

When?

Richard?
Amir?
Bill - do you care? (I still think you should get a Mac like Ron.)

I downloaded 2 movies from iTunes. Looked blah on screen. Took 2 TWO whole days! No thanks.

Collecting as many HD DVDs from around the world in region free Fiji (testing 1 BD for the first time this weekend).
Why did they codename the whatever Vista Fiji?

Yes, I only download music now. Movies, I don't think so.

Will be writing a paper lobbying Government to tax all discs (blank and otherwise) at ONE specific flat rate to combat piracy. Can't tax downloads, can we?

(I don't like the water, just the name.)

You shouldn't be surprised. After all, most of the respected market research analyst believe dual format players are the future. Link (http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070125-8702.html) and link (http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/news.phtml/4289/5313/blu-ray-hd-dvd-high-def-format.phtml).

Well... I guess five years from now, we'll see who was correct. Best to you.

Well.... reading between the lines of one of your previous comments... it would seem to me that you have some sort of issue or feeling that Microsoft doesn't belong in the HD arena:


Have you considered that your "reading between the lines" instead says something about YOU instead? Whether it's an Oedipus complex or an pseudo-parental protectiveness, it seems to have been triggered by your own impressions rather than his specific statements.


Those comments aside, I was speaking of the thread participants in general. Not yourself specifically, but if you feel the need to defend yourself, so be it.

I could never top briankmonkeys reply which me laughing out loud. :)

I will say I have one complaint about The Bits. I used to go just for the Rumor Mill and that doesn't see nearly the updates it used to... I think more of it is going into the My 2 Cents column instead, but it could be there is a... drying up... of insider info. Any comments, Bill, or should I pursue another venue for this interogative?

Well... I guess five years from now, we'll see who was correct. Best to you.


Fair enough. I'll book mark this and five years from now I'll come back and make an "in your face" post.

(alternatively, if HD DVD should fail, I'll erase this post and pretend it never happened.) :)

Well... I guess five years from now, we'll see who was correct. Best to you.
Yo Bill,
Since you're here.
I admire your recent stance to "declare" yourself rather than like other venues that are decidedly format bias but try to appear neutral and in so doing define the word hyprocrisy.

Anyway, is Robert Harris ever going to write another column? I see it has been awhile since his last on Digital Bits.

Meanwhile,

Is there a downloadable version of RELENTLESS ENEMIES otherwise?

And just to throw it not the mix - piracy is another reason where we are now.

Can anyone get RE to play on the 360 which is Microsoft CE hardware?

When?

Richard?
Amir?
Bill - do you care? (I still think you should get a Mac like Ron.)

I downloaded 2 movies from iTunes. Looked blah on screen. Took 2 TWO whole days! No thanks.

Collecting as many HD DVDs from around the world in region free Fiji (testing 1 BD for the first time this weekend).
Why did they codename the whatever Vista Fiji?

Yes, I only download music now. Movies, I don't think so.

Will be writing a paper lobbying Government to tax all discs (blank and otherwise) at ONE specific flat rate to combat piracy. Can't tax downloads, can we?

(I don't like the water, just the name.)

Christ... will you give it a rest already? We know that your damn National Geographic movie doesn't play on the 360. Get over it. They will probably fix it in the next firmware update like every other title that has had playback problems.

Or eBay it.

Or sell the 360 and buy an A2 (or not).

Or jump off a cliff (if Fiji has those).

Just please stop posting this all over the damn place.

Have you considered that your "reading between the lines" instead says something about YOU instead? Whether it's an Oedipus complex or an pseudo-parental protectiveness, it seems to have been triggered by your own impressions rather than his specific statements.


I think you are probably right. That used to happen to me quite a lot with the HD-DVD fans (still some now but not as much), putting words in my mouth, telling me that I meant something I didn't, etc..

People need to stop reading between the lines things that aren't there. Example would be is I'd say "Blu-ray PQ and AQ is top notch".. There response would be something like "you said HD-DVD sucks" or something like that even though I didn't even mention HD-DVD anyway in my post.. Then when I'd ask for evidence or try to educate, well you know how that goes. All part of the entertainment at AVS though :cool:

You shouldn't be surprised. After all, most of the respected market research analyst believe dual format players are the future. Link (http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070125-8702.html) and link (http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/news.phtml/4289/5313/blu-ray-hd-dvd-high-def-format.phtml).



That must be why those dual format players are just flying off the shelf!

Just please stop posting this all over the damn place.

You could have saved us the trouble from posting it (via quote) again, too. ;)

(alternatively, if HD DVD should fail, I'll erase this post and pretend it never happened.) :)

I like your sense of humor. :D

Format neutral studios and lots of dual-format players would be FANTASTIC for early adopters and enthusiasts, but they aren't going to address the root problem here, which is that mass confusion about which format to buy is going to keep the vast majority of consumers from ever actually buying either format. Most people will go to the store, see three different formats and decide to just stick with DVD. In that circumstance, studio enthusiasm for each format will gradually wane, just as it did with DVD-Audio and SACD, and both formats will fade quietly away. Who wins in that scenario? Certainly not enthusiasts. Downloading enthusiasts maybe.

Bill, I don't understand your point.

If Universal players take off, why would a consumer care about what color and moniker is on the disc case? All they need to do is put the disc in their shopping cart, get their ass back home, plonk the disc in the universal player, and BAM !! Enjoy the movie. Universal players will play every damn disc. The more consumers buy universal players, the faster their prices will come down. Studios can sit in their respective corners. The consumer wins.

I don't necessarily agree with it, but I believe his point is that the problem is not players to play the devices, nor even the affordability of such players, but the confusion caused by two competing formats.

Isn't Microsoft an American company? I always thought of you guys as an extremely patriotic bunch - why all the anti-Microsoft rhetoric?

Isn't Microsoft an American company? I always thought of you guys as an extremely patriotic bunch - why all the anti-Microsoft rhetoric?

I personally don't think being Patriotic means having blind loyalty to any company originating in your country. Some might disagree though.

My point was, DVD took off because once Divx died, ALL of the Hollywood studios moved to support it. That happened just as prices for the hardware became mass-market reasonable, and the rest is history. We'll be lucky if the high-def disc market reaches laserdisc size at this rate.

What is wrong with a high def market that is laserdisc size? Did the studios not support the laserdisc format enough? In fact, is there not an advantage to a smaller population of buyers who demand better quality than the mainstream buyers? We've seen, even well into the life of DVD, how studios have still been able to get away with substandard product.

Why do either of these high def formats need mainstream acceptance?

I will say I have one complaint about The Bits. I used to go just for the Rumor Mill and that doesn't see nearly the updates it used to... I think more of it is going into the My 2 Cents column instead, but it could be there is a... drying up... of insider info. Any comments, Bill, or should I pursue another venue for this interogative?

Lordy, if only I had enough hours in the day! I'll try to post something new soon.

Fair enough. I'll book mark this and five years from now I'll come back and make an "in your face" post.

(alternatively, if HD DVD should fail, I'll erase this post and pretend it never happened.) :)

Now see? This thread has given me a second good laugh. Either way, I'll buy you a beer sometime.

Yo Bill,
Since you're here.
I admire your recent stance to "declare" yourself rather than like other venues that are decidedly format bias but try to appear neutral and in so doing define the word hyprocrisy.

Well, we recognize that it isn't going to be popular with everyone, but then life isn't a popularity contest. We were getting bitched at by 1) Blu-ray fans for saying anything positive about HD-DVD, 2) HD-DVD fans for saying anything positive about Blu-ray 3) DVD fans for saying anything about high-def at all and 4) high-def fans for not taking more of a stand. There's just no pleasing anyone. So we just decided to say what we believe, and let the chips fall where they may.

What's amazing to me is how having an opinion in the HD format war has become akin to having an opinion on politics, abortion, global warming and/or gay marriage in some circles online these days!Yikes...

Anyway, is Robert Harris ever going to write another column? I see it has been awhile since his last on Digital Bits.

He's been a very busy beaver working on a very special project these last few months. But I just spoke with him this week and he's cooking up something for the column soon I think. I'm seeing him on Friday night, so I'll tell him people are asking after him.

Okay, now I REALLY have to get back to work. Best to all of you!

If you were to get a group of high ranking execs together to discuss the next generation of movie distribution, who would you need?

...

You have the movies, and you have the right people in order to get those movies onto the transport medium and then onto consumers displays. All bases covered.
You then go on to list the software companies as a lower-tier partner. Ever wonder why you're Blu-Ray player or PS3 takes several seconds to be ready to play a disc? Modern-day CE devices are mini computers with an operating system and software being run behind the scenes. The software companies (like MS) are most certainly a top-tier player with modern-day CE devices.

Very good summation. The only thing I will add is that my job as a consumer is not to bear the burden of having to proactively end the format war. If both formats fail due to the competing formats, then truly they failed in 2005 when a unified format could not be agreed upon.

I'd be curious to know Bill Hunt's opinion of dual-format players.

Thanks. I'm glad what I wrote resonated with someone, even though Bill Hunt did not respond to my questions.

Isn't it an interesting contrast how certain Korean based CE companies were agile and flexible enough to produce a dual format player so quickly while certain studios stubbornly sit in their HD camp of choice? Business deals/relationships aside, how much could it possibly cost them to publish in both formats when doing so would clearly reach a larger audience and generate more sales?

I think these are the more relevant questions and that all the hang-wringing about the format war and the finger pointing at Microsoft, Toshiba, HD-DVD (with a dash 'cause that's how I like it), Sony, et al, isn't useful at all. I don't want either format to "fail" in the sense it will be driven out of existence so that the other may flourish. This will inevitably happen in due time, but why moan and groan about it in the mean time?

I wish Bill Hunt and others with editorials or blogs would call for studio neutrality instead of trying to pick or predict the inevitable winner. Competition is a good thing. Let the market decide and let the chips fall where they may.

Bradley

Bill, I don't understand your point.

If Universal players take off, why would a consumer care about what color and moniker is on the disc case?

Because they don't have the expertise that enthusiasts do. They don't obsessively follow all the latest technical news and they don't particpate in online forums. Think back to how many people couldn't program their VCR clocks ten years ago. Same problem. You're assuming that everyone is as aware and plugged in to this stuff as you guys are. That's not the case.

Each format may have its respective technical advantages, but the A/V quality is basically equal and in my experience interactivity is HIGHLY overrated. Film and TV is a linear experience, and most of the interactivity is just bells and whistles which don't enhance the film or TV experience. I don't buy high-def discs to play games or to download screen savers. I have an Xbox and a PC for that. I buy these discs to watch movies. And content is king.I agree. And I also don't buy or rent DVDs to watch any of the extras. That's what my computer, internet access, and things like YouTube and Wikipedia are for. When I sit down to watch a movie, I just want to watch a movie from beginning to end.

What is wrong with a high def market that is laserdisc size? Did the studios not support the laserdisc format enough? In fact, is there not an advantage to a smaller population of buyers who demand better quality than the mainstream buyers? We've seen, even well into the life of DVD, how studios have still been able to get away with substandard product.

Why do either of these high def formats need mainstream acceptance?

We're ten years into DVD, the most successful home entertainment format ever, and there are still many great movies and TV series that have never been released. There's nothing wrong with a laserdisc market per se, but a laserdisc market that's split between two formats isn't going to have a lot of pull and isn't going to get a lot of support. Things are moving too fast these days. Studios don't want to have to master their home video releases for three seperate formats. If they end up having to do that, each format will end up getting a third of the catalog titles it might otherwise have gotten. Studios are only going to spend so much money marketing to niche formats. They're after bigger business.

Christ... will you give it a rest already? We know that your damn National Geographic movie doesn't play on the 360. Get over it. They will probably fix it in the next firmware update like every other title that has had playback problems.

Or eBay it.

Or sell the 360 and buy an A2 (or not).

Or jump off a cliff (if Fiji has those).

Just please stop posting this all over the damn place.

Microsoft stated that the disc requires a FIRMWARE upgrade to the HD-DVD Addon, and they are afraid of bricking the drive by doing it online. Rightfully so, since theres thousands of people with bricked xbox 360s after each and every new update on the system it seems. So you are saying its A-OK to have movies that DONT play on a 100% fully supported hardware? Wow, your rational of whats acceptable seems somewhat soft, compared to lets say, if the same situation was for blu-ray. You'd probably write to the euro union to investigate the matter and look into banning blu-ray from circuit city. Get real. The guy has a major problem, he has a disc he PAID for and it doesnt work on the drive he PAID for that was ADVERTISED as a 100% supported device. Belittling him doesnt help.

Because they don't have the expertise that enthusiasts do. They don't obsessively follow all the latest technical news and they don't particpate in online forums. Think back to how many people couldn't program their VCR clocks ten years ago. Same problem. You're assuming that everyone is as aware and plugged in to this stuff as you guys are. That's not the case.

Seems like we keep pulling you back from your work, but let me understand this clearly.

That J6P doesn't have the expertise that enthusiasts do is the whole premise behind universal players. A store like BestBuy or CC will sell a Universal player saying that they will play all HD movies available - sort of a silver bullet to end the format confusion. Any person who bought a "Universal HD Disc Player" will know that it will play movie discs of every format. DVD? Check. HD DVD? Check. Blu-Ray? Check.

If they bought a universal player, they will have a faint idea what is so "universal" about it. So, they see a movie they like on the store shelf, they go buy it if they like the price. Simple. Where is the confusion, and the need to know the technical mumbo-jumbo about each format?

J6P is surely buying AV receivers that can decode DD5.1, DTS, DTS-EX, et al, without the need to know the technical intricacies of each format. The same will happen to HD movies if Universal players take off. The only confusion will be for format exclusivity junkies.

Nevertheless, it seems the HD-DVD faithful needs a bad guy to pin their frustrations on.I'm not frustrated at all. I just bought my first high-def DVD player a week or two ago, and I chose HD DVD, knowing full well that the HD DVD format may ultimately be extinct a year from now. Do you really see more "frustration" by the HD DVD userbase as compared to the Blu-Ray userbase?

I continue to be surprised that there are people who feel that the magic answer to all this is going to be dual format players. Those sure did wonders for DVD-Audio and SACD.I don't see dual-format players as being the cure-all either, if they're going to be priced the same as much as buying one each of an HD DVD and a Blu-Ray player. But I think the problem with DVD-Audio and SACD is similar to the current problem with high-def DVDs, which is that they are, by their very nature, a niche market. The mass market is content with DVDs. The improvement in picture and sound quality with an HD DVD or Blu-Ray as compared to a standard DVD is subtle or nonexistent for the mass market, because the mass market either: a) Does not own an HDTV at all, or b) If they do own an HDTV it's 42" or less and they're sitting about 10' or more away from it, making the improvement in PQ subtle.

Mass market confusion is what will keep both of these formats from thriving, and that confusion is caused by the format war. Low prices and combo players will do little to solve this problem.As stated above, the mass market isn't confused, so much as they aren't interested in paying $500+ for a subtle improvement in PQ. I'm not sure they're even interested in paying as much as $250 (the cost of my Toshiba HD-D2 HD DVD player) for a subtle improvement in PQ, but by my logic, the HD DVD has a much better chance of breaking through into the mass market because of these [currently much lower] player costs.

His name is Richard Doherty, not to be confused with the other Richard or "Rick" Doherty (http://www.digitalhollywood.com/%231DHFall04/DHFall20.html). Maybe you consider this mincing words, but he said he found bias in that article in particular. I didn't find his remarks to be a personal attack on you or some attempt at character assassination. Beyond that, the guy has every right to try to clarify what he said when quoted out of context and most AVSForum members welcome industry insiders sharing their point of view here.



Do you firmly believe that there are absolutely no positives to this "war"?



I'm sorry, but that is exactly what you're doing now by replying at great length and with such incredulity to a brief comment Doherty made regarding your article. You are clearly adding fuel to the fire.



I agree. The bickering, name calling, and trash talking is pointless.



I don't think these are foregone conclusions, that BD's success will somehow stave off VOD/downloading, or that HD-DVD's continued existance will doom both BD and HD-DVD to extinction or irrelevancy. You're entitled to your opinion, of course, but I find these assertions to be a bit dire, premature, and pessimistic.

Instead of making a plea to AVS enthusiasts and consumers at large to support BD, why not make a plea for all studios to go format neutral? Don't you think that's the thing that really hurts consumers: being "punished"for choosing one format or the other? Isn't that the single worst part about the "war"?

Bradley


Great post Bradley

Because they don't have the expertise that enthusiasts do. They don't obsessively follow all the latest technical news and they don't particpate in online forums. Think back to how many people couldn't program their VCR clocks ten years ago. Same problem. You're assuming that everyone is as aware and plugged in to this stuff as you guys are. That's not the case.

I do not think people have to be as plugged in as we are. My father who is practically a ludite, has no problem using his dvd writer and I don't think he even knows the difference between dvd R+ or -. He just buys what ever is on sale. He has no problem with a VCR clock: A little black electricians tape and it is all better :)

MY Two Cents: It seems to me that Bill Hunt's site offers news, reviews, analysis, commentary, opinion etc. on DVD and High Definition disc. Bill's recent "soapbox" and "Two Cents" pieces have gone far beyond OPINION into ADVOCACY of one format. I consider this unfortunate and that it diminishes the value of Bill's site. (I miss RAH's pieces too.)

As in other areas of life, this competition has positive aspects as well as negative aspects. I continue to be amazed by the fervor of so many people on either side -- who only have placed bets of a few hundreds or few thousands of dollars, not the future of their careers or companies.

For all the usual reasons, it has long been my view that BD has the greater likelihood of becoming the dominant format. Yet I bought an HD DVD player last fall for reasons of price and title quality (at that time). My "solution" to that conflict is to buy a few key titles, but generally to rent through Netflix. I expect (hope?) to buy a combo player in two or three years. In the meantime, a regular DVD of a BD exclusive title will still be an enjoyable (or otherwise) movie.

A store like BestBuy or CC will sell a Universal player saying that they will play all HD movies available - sort of a silver bullet to end the format confusion. Any person who bought a "Universal HD Disc Player" will know that it will play movie discs of every format. DVD? Check. HD DVD? Check. Blu-Ray? Check.

I'd remind you that a year into this format war, the vast majority of movie fans - even many who own HDTVs - aren't even aware of the format war, much less what the advantages and disadvantages of each format may be. You can't expect them to be aware of the advantages of combo players and combo discs. Plus, combo players are invariably MUCH more expensive than regular players... and as so many keep saying, low price is the thing, right? Plus, then you have to pay attention to the actual differences in the movies. Let's say you want "The Adventures of Spanky and Joe" in high-def. Should you get the blue box or the red box. Are the features the same? Hhmmm... this one's got IME and this one doesn't. What's IME and why should I care? This one's got TrueHD but this one has Uncompressed PCM. This one's a combo disc, but this one isn't. So which one should I... aw screw it. I'll just get the DVD.

I continue to believe that combo players will benefit only enthusiasts. That's what happened with DVD/Laserdisc combo players, that's what happened with DVD-Audio/SACD combo players, etc.

My point was, DVD took off because once Divx died, ALL of the Hollywood studios moved to support it.And why did Divx die? Because the consumers spoke with their wallets (and voices) and told them, no way! And once that happened, the studios that had put their eggs into the Divx basket, gave in and quite easily and quickly began supporting the DVD format because, ultimately, they wanted the consumer's money. Don't you see anything to learn from here, Bill, in regards to the current situation? You're giving *current* studio support too much weight. Imagine if you had done the same with Divx back in the early days? Disney, DISNEY!!!, wanted Divx to win. They withheld DVD support, in favor of Divx. Fox was another (interesting how those two have sided early on with Blu-Ray in the current "war"). Yet they both caved in when the *consumer* decided which format should win. Why are you so opposed this time around to letting the market (i.e., consumers) decide the victor?

I don't begrudge anyone the enjoyment of their HD format of choice.

If that were only true.

I have no problem with you writing editorial/opinion pieces when they are labeled as such - everyone is entitled to his/her opinion.
What I do have a problem with is when you don't try to restain your bias even on the "news" portions of your site.

For instance, when you broke the news with Universal's projected list of 2007 releases a couple of months ago, you couldn't help but add snide and condescending statements to the "news" like this is apt to be the one big announcement for the year for HD DVD fans, so enjoy it.

That's like a newspaper's front page (not the opinion/editorial section) reporting on the Democrats' 2006 election success and then stating in the same article "that's the only good news for you Democrats in a long time so enjoy it because the GOP is going to take back Congress in 2 years"

if only my hands weren't so big

http://pics.livejournal.com/fridgemagnet/pic/000181p2

But believe this: The day downloading becomes the norm, you can forget about even the smallest semblence of ownership of the movies you buy. You won't even have a physical copy anymore. And you can forget about the kind of thoughtful, in-depth special editions that we've all enjoyed over the last ten years, because the economics won't be there anymore to support their creation. I can tell you this for sure: there aren't a lot of DVD producers who are excited about an all downloading future. I find it deeply disappointing that the film and home theater enthusiast market would be willing to sacrifice discs for downloads. If and when that happens, it'll be a very sad day for us all.
Disagree.

How do you know you won't own the product in the same sense as you do today? Just because you don't have a disk? Following this logic, you are probably still lamenting the loss of Laser, because it provided a larger physical package size....

How do you know "thoughtful, in-depth special editions" will disappear?

How do you know there aren't as many DVD producers who are excited about an all downloading future, as those who are not?

Too many assumptions, based on what?

And why did Divx die? Because the consumers spoke with their wallets (and voices) and told them, no way! And once that happened, the studios that had put their eggs into the Divx basket, gave in and quite easily and quickly began supporting the DVD format because, ultimately, they wanted the consumer's money. Don't you see anything to learn from here, Bill, in regards to the current situation? You're giving *current* studio support too much weight. Imagine if you had done the same with Divx back in the early days? Disney, DISNEY!!!, wanted Divx to win. They withheld DVD support, in favor of Divx. Fox was another (interesting how those two have sided early on with Blu-Ray in the current "war"). Yet they both caved in when the *consumer* decided which format should win. Why are you so opposed this time around to letting the market (i.e., consumers) decide the victor?
I'd have to think 200+ posts into this thread, the answer to that question should be quite clear. At least it is to me.

I Sony has an obvious business interest in Blu-ray/HD DVD. Microsoft does not (unless you want to divulge something that hasn't been brought up and disproven before).
Huh??? MS owns IP on VC1, they are selling WinCE solutions for embedded players, they are producing software to compress movies for HD DVD, they are integrating HD DVD has a player/storage format on Windows.

What do you mean they have no business interest in HD DVD??? It is all out there in the open.

What they aren't is vertically integrated -- they don't try to control the content, the players, the displays, the format and the rootkits.

Disagree.

How do you know you won't own the product in the same sense as you do today? Just because you don't have a disk? Following this logic, you are probably still lamenting the loss of Laser, because it provided a larger physical package size....

How do you know "thoughtful, in-depth special editions" will disappear?

How do you know there aren't as many DVD producers who are excited about an all downloading future, as those who are not?

Too many assumptions, based on what?

How many Itunes style online stores have SACD/DVDA quality up for buying online? How many of those movie websites online including Amazons own web movie service have extras? How about Xbox Live Marketplace? Heres your answer: 0.

MS owns IP on VC1, they are selling WinCE solutions for embedded players, they are producing software to compress movies for HD DVD, they are integrating HD DVD has a player/storage format on Windows.

It means they can still peddle all that stuff for Blu-ray when HDDVD is dead, all the while they're hoping XBL video downloading will take off.

If you were to get a group of high ranking execs together to discuss the next generation of movie distribution, who would you need? Well, first off you need the people who own the movies. You can't distribute movies without actually having the content, so inviting movie studio execs makes sense. Next, the consumer needs to watch the movie once they buy it. Since the main way consumers watch movies is still via TV, you're going to need consumer electronics execs there. So, you invite all the execs from major consumer electronics manufacturers.

And that's about it.
You are still living in the '90s before that Internet thing took off. Now, if you want to talk about movie distribution, you have to consider electronic distribution as well.

Bill,

Let me say first, that I have read your site pretty much from the beginning, and it still is my Firefox homepage.

That said, your statement confuses me

I'd remind you that a year into this format war, the vast majority of movie fans - even many who own HDTVs - aren't even aware of the format war, much less what the advantages and disadvantages of each format may be.

If this is the case, then why advocate for one format over the other, before the consumer has had a chance to declare a winner, so to speak.

If both formats die because of a protracted stalemate, then the consumer has spoken, as they did with DVD-A/SACD (I picked SACD btw). So be it.

Would it be a loss, yes, but that would be the market place. You seem to want to take away the consumer's choice in the matter.

You seem to want to end this, in BD's favor, before the consumer has spoken - which you freely admit.

If mass confusion, as you see it, is keeping the formats from flourishing, this should be a message to the CE industry and Studios, consumers should not be "forced" to buy one format over the other, just to make things tidy.

Dakota,

I'd have to think 200+ posts into this thread, the answer to that question should be quite clear. At least it is to me.

But the answer isnt clear. Why not let the consumer decide, even if it means both formats fail.

How many Itunes style online stores have SACD/DVDA quality up for buying online? How many of those movie websites online including Amazons own web movie service have extras? How about Xbox Live Marketplace? Heres your answer: 0.
Just wait. Once downloading becomes the norm, that will all change. It's only a matter of time.

If that were only true.

I have no problem with you writing editorial/opinion pieces when they are labeled as such - everyone is entitled to his/her opinion.
What I do have a problem with is when you don't try to restain your bias even on the "news" portions of your site.

For instance, when you broke the news with Universal's projected list of 2007 releases a couple of months ago, you couldn't help but add snide and condescending statements to the "news" like this is apt to be the one big announcement for the year for HD DVD fans, so enjoy it.

That's like a newspaper's front page (not the opinion/editorial section) reporting on the Democrats' 2006 election success and then stating in the same article "that's the only good news for you Democrats in a long time so enjoy it because the GOP is going to take back Congress in 2 years"

My Two Cents is an editorial column on The Bits. That's pretty much how it's always been. In fact, pretty much every column on The Bits qualifies as editorial or opinion.

And why did Divx die? Because the consumers spoke with their wallets (and voices) and told them, no way! And once that happened, the studios that had put their eggs into the Divx basket, gave in and quite easily and quickly began supporting the DVD format because, ultimately, they wanted the consumer's money. Don't you see anything to learn from here, Bill, in regards to the current situation? You're giving *current* studio support too much weight. Imagine if you had done the same with Divx back in the early days? Disney, DISNEY!!!, wanted Divx to win. They withheld DVD support, in favor of Divx. Fox was another (interesting how those two have sided early on with Blu-Ray in the current "war"). Yet they both caved in when the *consumer* decided which format should win. Why are you so opposed this time around to letting the market (i.e., consumers) decide the victor?
You hit the nail on the head.

Despite studios trying to decide the format war (like they did with DIVX), HD DVD still has a strong following that is picking up growth. The studios are the crutch that are keeping the format war going.

If Bill Hunt was truly worried about the enthusiast, he would be advocating the studios going dual format so that the consumer could quickly and definitively put an end to this war.

How many Itunes style online stores have SACD/DVDA quality up for buying online? How many of those movie websites online including Amazons own web movie service have extras? How about Xbox Live Marketplace? Heres your answer: 0.Other than a niche group, I don't think anyone cares about DVDA/SACD. If there was a market for it someone would be providing it. Heck, there was even a "Netflix" type service for DVHS in it's short lifetime. When it comes to music, most people care more about how many songs they can fit on their Ipod over the very slight improvement in clarity while playing it through their $12 earbuds or car stereo.

How do you know "thoughtful, in-depth special editions" will disappear?

How do you know there aren't as many DVD producers who are excited about an all downloading future, as those who are not?

Too many assumptions, based on what?

How about, based on the fact that I know, personally, many of the leading DVD producers involved in the business and speak with them regularly, both as friends and professionally. And most of them are telling me that a lot of the fun has gone out of the work for them because the studios are getting less and less interested in spending money to produce the kind of really great, in-depth special editions that were a hallmark of DVD. Many of the great producers from the early days of DVD have even moved on to other work. A couple are currently working on what may be their last DVD projects. What's more, a lot of the best studio execs that were in charge of DVD in the beginning, and who were a big part of what made it a success (and who actually cared about your opinions as film enthusiasts and took the time to listen to them), have been or are being pushed aside by bean counters and marketing people. That why we're getting so much silly interactive crap, repurposed EPK featurettes, games and DVD double-dips (with little new content but trailers to promote future releases), but fewer and fewer really great in-depth documentaries and truly elaborate special editions. The business and climate in the home video side of Hollywood is changing big time, and not in a good way.

Other than a niche group, I don't think anyone cares about DVDA/SACD. If there was a market for it someone would be providing it. Heck, there was even a "Netflix" type service for DVHS in it's short lifetime. When it comes to music, most people care more about how many songs they can fit on their Ipod over the very slight improvement in clarity while playing it through their $12 earbuds or car stereo.

I have news for you. HD movie disc enthusiasts are an equally niche group.

If Bill Hunt was truly worried about the enthusiast, he would be advocating the studios going dual format so that the consumer could quickly and definitively put an end to this war.

Apart from casting any aspersions regarding Bill Hunt's motives or sincerity, that's what I was saying. Why not call for studios to publish HD titles in both formats? Is there really no money to be made in doing so? Does it really have to be one or the other because consumers are so darned unsophisticated and confused by having more than one choice?

Bradley

Bill,

Again your statements here and your position on the format war confuse me.

What's more, a lot of the best studio execs that were in charge of DVD in the beginning, and who were a big part of what made it a success (and who actually cared about your opinions as film enthusiasts and took the time to listen to them), have been or are being pushed aside by bean counters and marketing people.

The business and climate in the home video side of Hollywood is changing big time, and not in a good way.

Would these changes be helped or hurt in a one format situation? Given what you just said, doesn't the two format situation at least "force" the studios to maintain a modicum of quality?

You hit the nail on the head.

Despite studios trying to decide the format war (like they did with DIVX), HD DVD still has a strong following that is picking up growth. The studios are the crutch that are keeping the format war going.

If Bill Hunt was truly worried about the enthusiast, he would be advocating the studios going dual format so that the consumer could quickly and definitively put an end to this war.

I'll remind you that The Bits was one of the loudest voices speaking out against Divx at the time. And I've enumerated the reasons why I don't think dual format is going to help anyone but enthusiasts many times now, including at least once in this thread. As for caring about enthusiasts, The Bits' record over the last ten years more than stands for itself. While plenty of DVD sites have been content to just report the news, grow their audiences as big as possible and sell out to corporate interests (and I'm not criticizing any of them for doing so - it's their choice), we've preferred instead to work actively to promote issues that we felt were in the best interests of the enthusiast community as a whole. When readers have approached us with problem discs or issues, we've championed those causes. More than one major studio has admitted that it was The Bits' efforts that finally convinced them of the need to adopt anamorphic enhancement on DVD back in the day. We've more than done our share on behalf of enthusiasts.

At this rate consumers probably ARE going to definitively put an end to this format war - they're going to decide to thumb their noses at it and stick with DVD.

I have news for you. HD movie disc enthusiasts are an equally niche group.Agreed... for now. But HD media has much more momentum than DVDA or SACD has or has ever had. I just don't think sound quality gets the same treatment or respect from the average consumer. I'd be willing to bet most of them could discern 1080i vs. 480i as opposed to 96 vs 48khz recording. Another example would be how the studios seem to regard lossless audio as optional on releases instead of a requirement.

Despite studios trying to decide the format war (like they did with DIVX), HD DVD still has a strong following that is picking up growth. The studios are the crutch that are keeping the format war going. I keep waiting for Sony to screw this one up like they have with the long laundry list of their other failed ideas.

Why not call for studios to publish HD titles in both formats?No matter what format a person is rooting for, I think as realists we can see that getting Sony to go neutral (as well as Fox, Disney, and Universal) is a lot bigger hurdle than trying to get Universal to go neutral (which is what Bill was trying to do). Asking Sony to go neutral is like asking Toshiba to go neutral, not like asking Universal to go neutral.

--Darin

How about, based on the fact that I know, personally, many of the leading DVD producers involved in the business and speak with them regularly, both as friends and professionally. And most of them are telling me that a lot of the fun has gone out of the work for them because the studios are getting less and less interested in spending money to produce the kind of really great, in-depth special editions that were a hallmark of DVD. Many of the great producers from the early days of DVD have even moved on to other work. A couple are currently working on what may be their last DVD projects. What's more, a lot of the best studio execs that were in charge of DVD in the beginning, and who were a big part of what made it a success (and who actually cared about your opinions as film enthusiasts and took the time to listen to them), have been or are being pushed aside by bean counters and marketing people. That why we're getting so much silly interactive crap, repurposed EPK featurettes, games and DVD double-dips (with little new content but trailers to promote future releases), but fewer and fewer really great in-depth documentaries and truly elaborate special editions. The business and climate in the home video side of Hollywood is changing big time, and not in a good way.

Why should a studio put the time into high bitrate encodes and modest special features when it's obvious that what sells in this country is the cheapest discount DVD that they can find in the bargain bin of their local big box store?

In a sense film fans have done this to themselves by double and triple dipping on releases that are made from the same master with nothing but some extra commentary or some pictures of wookie costumes in the "extras" section.

This basically sent a strong message to the studios.... quality really doesn't matter... just keep repackaging this crap in new and interesting ways and these shmucks will buy it.

If anyone is to blame for downloadable content taking over in the next decade it's certainly not going to be the real enthusiasts who have picked either HD-DVD or BD to blame for it.

It's going to be a throwaway culture that values convenience far above quality.... look at Apple's iTunes business. They sell episodes of TV SHOWS encoded in crappy quicktime for four bucks a pop.

If that isn't enough to get a studio executive extremely excited I don't know what is.

Would these changes be helped or hurt in a one format situation? Given what you just said, doesn't the two format situation at least "force" the studios to maintain a modicum of quality?

For most of their product lives, laserdisc or DVD didn't have any competitors either. Despite this, quality and features continued to improve over time, not decline. So I would guess that the same would be true for any HD disc format. The thing to remember is that even if one format eliminates the other, competition between STUDIOS for consumer dollars will still exist.

We're ten years into DVD, the most successful home entertainment format ever, and there are still many great movies and TV series that have never been released. There's nothing wrong with a laserdisc market per se, but a laserdisc market that's split between two formats isn't going to have a lot of pull and isn't going to get a lot of support. Things are moving too fast these days. Studios don't want to have to master their home video releases for three seperate formats. If they end up having to do that, each format will end up getting a third of the catalog titles it might otherwise have gotten. Studios are only going to spend so much money marketing to niche formats. They're after bigger business.

Of course they are after bigger business. They are also after the smaller business. You make it sound like the studios would be losing money because of multiple formats. Profit. That is all the studios care about. And if they are making profit in releasing to niche format(s), then they will release to the niche format(s). If studios don't want to be bothered, they can always license out titles to companies like Criterion, as they did for laser. And Warner has already shown the willingness to use the same master and the same encodes for both high def formats, so what are you talking about when you say that "studios don't want to have to master their home video releases for three seperate formats"?

How about citing examples as to how the catalog titles would be less? Many, many catalog titles were released on laserdisc. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if some people would be content with the knowledge that every title that was released on laser would also be released in high def. As for the more obscure titles-how many do you expect to be released in high def anyway?

Does anyone think Sony would release on HD-DVD EVER? Even if by a miracle hd-dvd came out on top, is there a law that Sony has to support it? Who is to say they wont go 100% HD Downloads from multiple providers and the PS3 and screw over hd-dvd in that way? If blu-ray doesnt come out on top, then both formats are f*cked and there would no point in supporting hd-dvd.

Pot, meet kettle.

Do a search of my post history and you'll see I've openly bashed and praised both formats for different things. I'm not surprised to see an HD DVD fanboy blast me without having all the facts though. :p

Agreed... for now. But HD media has much more momentum than DVDA or SACD has or has ever had. I just don't think sound quality gets the same treatment or respect from the average consumer. I'd be willing to bet most of them could discern HD vs. SD as opposed to 96 vs 48khz recording. Another example would be how the studios seem to regard lossless audio as optional on releases instead of a requirement.
I keep waiting for Sony to screw this one up like they have with almost everything else.

In broadcast/cable/satellite maybe, but on the disc front all of that momentum is being squandered by the confusion of a format war. That's my point. Imagine what might have happened if the camps had agreed to work together, or one had backed down. The entire industry would have worked actively to promote a single format. Sales would be much stronger now than they are, because there'd be very little risk to consumers. The only barrier to entry would be price.

I think you're right about sound quality not getting the same respect. Part of the reason for that is that convenience, price and ease-of-use seem to trump quality in the mind of most consumers. And most of them would rather download lower quality music than buy more expensive discs of higher quality. That's the danger with HD movies too, I think. But the format war certainly didn't help matters in terms of high-resolution audio. Nor do I think it's helping in HD movie discs.

I appreciate that some feel the format war has been driving prices down, which is good for the consumer. That's true and it's the most valid argument I've heard on the subject. But if the formats don't end up being viable, thriving businesses with lots of software support, super-low prices don't really matter. A $199 player can become just as useless as a $599 one. Cheap prices are not enough for a format to be successful. There has to be a business model that encourages the studios and manufacturers to support it. There has to be win/win.

What I'm looking for is the best overall balance of quality, price, and hardware and software support. HD-DVD is stronger with price, but BD is basically its equal in quality and it's got stronger hardware and software support (by which I mean manufacturers and studios). If BD prices continue to drop, that price advantage for HD-DVD evaporates. All the rest is just window dressing it seems to me. And the Blu-ray manufacturers also haven't slashed their hardware prices so quickly and drastically that it's virtually impossible to make a profit, so the business model still works enough to encourage them to stick with it. It's a pretty simple and logical argument it seems to me.

And I agree that Sony has a long history of screwing things up. And they still could. But even Sony has to get something right once in a while.

Anyway, as much fun as it is debating 20 people at once, I've really got to get back to work.

So... one last time for today... best to all of you!

It's going to be a throwaway culture that values convenience far above quality.... look at Apple's iTunes business. They sell episodes of TV SHOWS encoded in crappy quicktime for four bucks a pop.

If that isn't enough to get a studio executive extremely excited I don't know what is.

Maybe, given time. It certainly means less production/distribution cost for them. But I refer you to this:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-appletv11jun11,1,7780420.story?ctrack=2&cset=true

Other than a niche group, I don't think anyone cares about DVDA/SACD. If there was a market for it someone would be providing it. Heck, there was even a "Netflix" type service for DVHS in it's short lifetime. When it comes to music, most people care more about how many songs they can fit on their Ipod over the very slight improvement in clarity while playing it through their $12 earbuds or car stereo.

I don't think people at avs fall into the most people category. Well I don't, I guess that's why I use Grado headphones with my iPod at the gym. Granted I just found out they have iGrado's that would fit better for moving around and stuff, but that comprimise is another subject.

I really wish SACD's were mainstream as they sound amazing...a dam shame :(

Anyway, as much fun as it is debating 20 people at once, I've really got to get back to work.

So... one last time for today... best to all of you!
And best to you.
Thanks for the visit and the PM. :)

Just wait. Once downloading becomes the norm, that will all change. It's only a matter of time.

Good lord, I hope not!

How about, based on the fact that I know, personally, many of the leading DVD producers involved in the business and speak with them regularly, both as friends and professionally. And most of them are telling me that a lot of the fun has gone out of the work for them because the studios are getting less and less interested in spending money to produce the kind of really great, in-depth special editions that were a hallmark of DVD. Many of the great producers from the early days of DVD have even moved on to other work. A couple are currently working on what may be their last DVD projects. What's more, a lot of the best studio execs that were in charge of DVD in the beginning, and who were a big part of what made it a success (and who actually cared about your opinions as film enthusiasts and took the time to listen to them), have been or are being pushed aside by bean counters and marketing people. That why we're getting so much silly interactive crap, repurposed EPK featurettes, games and DVD double-dips (with little new content but trailers to promote future releases), but fewer and fewer really great in-depth documentaries and truly elaborate special editions. The business and climate in the home video side of Hollywood is changing big time, and not in a good way.So if it's happening already, the lack of physical media is a moot point.