Blu-ray Fumbles Chance In HDTV DVD War
(http://www.tvpredictions.com/davis061307.htm)

By Mitch Davis
HD Observer

Washington, D.C. (June 13, 2007) -- With several million PlayStation 3 consoles sold, one would think that Blu-Ray would be on the road to defeating HD DVD by now, but this is far from reality.

With its back against the wall, Toshiba threw a Hail Mary pass by selling (HD DVD players) at or below cost with drastic price reductions that make HD DVD attractive to mass consumers. This is working well. Who would have guessed that affordable pricing means more people will buy HD? (maybe Swanni did).

Universal has been backing HD DVD with large amounts of popular catalog titles coming out after a drought of releases. Not to mention Warner Bros. and Paramount have also been releasing their quality titles on both formats.

So what has the Blu-Ray team been up to?

Hardware releases from multiple companies with expensive pricing and a recent slowdown of exclusive titles hasn't helped. Sony is coming soon with a very
nice new BR player at $499 list, which hopefully the price will come down when on sale. Let's hope other manufacturers follow suit fast.

Additionally, Blu-Ray exclusive studios have slowed down releases recently. Over the summer there is now very limited list of exclusive b-list releases. The more exciting titles are coming from Warner and Paramount as dual format releases.

Studio' like Sony, MGM, Fox and Disney are just not releasing their quality movies. Also, even more depressing to BR is the fact that Fox/MGM has stopped releases entirely. Warner has held back catalog
titles like Batman Begins and Matrix trilogy from BR because BD-J on BR the interactive format isn't finalized. Also, disc manufacturing for BR is an issue as they can't make enough discs to meet demand.

Fox and MGM haven't publicly said they haven't released titles due to the fact that HD copy protection was hacked. Instead they cancelled releases sometimes on the day they were due out leading to consumer frustration and confusion.

No one knows how this format war will go, but I can say that Team Blu-Ray is fumbling their lead and this could lead to more dual format machines in the future and possibly even losing this format war.

Things that make you go uuhmm.

I don't understand why FOX and MGM aren't releasing.

^ It's because AACS got hacked. They're waiting for a less leaky DRM.

^ It's because AACS got hacked. They're waiting for a less leaky DRM.Well they might as well just shut down their home distribution division. It's going to get hacked.

I don't concur that Blu-Ray is currently in trouble in any way. But I do agree with the article that they are missing out on a perfect opportunity to widen the gap to irrecoverable proportions.

Fox went 5 months since the begining of Blu-rays launch with zero titles released per month before AACS got hacked

Also I just like to add that I'm glad the hack has not caused all other studios for both formats to all quit releasing titles

Also I just like to add that I'm glad the hack has not caused all other studios for both formats to all quit releasing titlesSome studios are very paranoid. Sony would be right there with them withholding releases if they didn't have such a large stake in the success of Blu-Ray.

Instead, Sony plans on using the ethernet connection in many new Blu-Ray players and PS3's to distribute an undetectable root kit to all devices connected through your LAN to combat the problem at the source... the evil pirating, thieving, blue collar American. :)

Also I just like to add that I'm glad the hack has not caused all other studios for both formats to all quit releasing titles

and this I don't get at all, lets say it's Warner and Universal don't fear the hack and release anyway. Are they suffering terrible losses related to the breach of security?

Maybe they just accept the futility of trying to make HDM hack-proof and don't let it stand in their way.

Paidgeek has indicated on another (less hostile) forum that BD+ has passed important milestones and that he expects the first such titles to appear "any week".

I suspect Fox titles will start appearing soon.

What is an "HDTV DVD?"

BR should have put this "war" to bed long ago. They snowballed the studios on how their format was supposed to be superior, and since BR was going to be in the next PlayStation(which was to be a gift from God, supposedly), it was a lock.

Fast forward to today: Sony screwed the pooch, royally, and we have a raging format war on our hands with no end in site.

The PS3 was late to market and is currently getting hammered, outsold now 5:1 by the Wii, and 2:1 by the 360. HD-DVD was ready for prime time, with its interactive features in hand more or less out of the gates. BR disc? *crickets chirping* "Its coming" we're told, just like the new fangled unhackable DRM :rolleyes: BD+. Even with measly studio support, HD-DVD shows no sign of giving up the ghost. It's doing better than I expected, anyway. BR isn't looking like the Goliath that was promised, that's for sure.

What's this? Somebody posted an opinion unfavorable to the one I hold? In that case (ahem): "HD observer are just a bunch of schills anyway. I stopped reading that site a long time ago. Their opinion is worthless. Mitch Davis is just a red fanboy".

(it's a joke)

What's this? Somebody posted an opinion unfavorable to the one I hold? In that case (ahem): "HD observer are just a bunch of schills anyway. I stopped reading that site a long time ago. Their opinion is worthless. Mitch Davis is just a red fanboy".

(it's a joke)

LOL, I expect a rebuttle article from The Digital Bits any day now.

LOL, I expect a rebuttle article from The Digital Bits any day now.

Spin... Errr, damage control in 3, 2, ....


:D

Wasn't Rescue Me season 3 (a Fox show) just released a week or two ago?

Rescue Me is distributed by Sony, it's just broadcast on a Fox network.

fitprod

As a BD supporter (formerly neutral), I agree with his points. However, those cheap $299 HD-A2's aren't going to give the average non-enthusiast user a terribly wonderful experience with HD unless they have a lot of patience.

The stars at night, are big and bright, deep in The Heart of Texas Theater!

Ha! Pee Wee popped into my head right when I read that :D

I have to say I am (and probably Sony execs :) disappointed with Fox and Warner, and to some degree Disney. While I see they have different reasons to hold off - I really don't find them to be very valid concerns. (Fox will apparently never be able to release anything in HD if they are worried about hacks)

As a BD supporter (formerly neutral), I agree with his points. However, those cheap $299 HD-A2's aren't going to give the average non-enthusiast user a terribly wonderful experience with HD unless they have a lot of patience.


I have been lovin HD DVD since May 1, 2006 with my first A1 player, added a XA2, and in February (during the drought) deigned to buy a BD player. I have never had a problem with my players, some discs (but I have had problems with some BD discs too), never the player. Sorry to hear your experience was not great.

Paidgeek has indicated on another (less hostile) forum that BD+ has passed important milestones and that he expects the first such titles to appear "any week".

I suspect Fox titles will start appearing soon.

Classic Blu-rayspeak.

If the article is talking about today, now - then this would be the second time that BD has had the ball . . . and dropped it.

The first time was the 1st qtr. of 2007 when for whatever reason, there were almost no HD DVD releases. In a 10 week time period I believe HD DVD released 2 titles and that was at the very end of March (Bullitt and The Getaway). Other than those 2 . . dry as a bone.

Yet if memory serves me, there were 2 weeks where BD also released nothing at all. This would have been the time to get 50 or 100 titles out but I don't believe they released anywhere's near that.

Was it because the BD production lines were still in an influx of being built? Did someone within the BDA overlook the fact that HD DVD was releasing nothing during this time period?

No answers . . . just questions . . . other than the fact that a window of opportunity existed - and nothing was done to take advantage of it.

If the article is talking about today, now - then this would be the second time that BD has had the ball . . . and dropped it.

The first time was the 1st qtr. of 2007 when for whatever reason, there were almost no HD DVD releases. In a 10 week time period I believe HD DVD released 2 titles and that was at the very end of March (Bullitt and The Getaway). Other than those 2 . . dry as a bone.

Yet if memory serves me, there were 2 weeks where BD also released nothing at all. This would have been the time to get 50 or 100 titles out but I don't believe they released anywhere's near that.

Was it because the BD production lines were still in an influx of being built? Did someone within the BDA overlook the fact that HD DVD was releasing nothing during this time period?

No answers . . . just questions . . . other than the fact that a window of opportunity existed - and nothing was done to take advantage of it.


By this quote I would say the first fumble was LAUNCH not anything in 2007.

There are just many many things to point to at launch time but I think most would agree that Blu-ray was favored by most of us purely on the stats and supporting studios all the way up untill they fumbled and had these mess ups at launch time.

... (Fox will apparently never be able to release anything in HD if they are worried about hacks)
BD is the ultra DRM camp. If BD continues to get hacked, they will not have much of a "studio advantage."

Who would have guessed that affordable pricing means more people will buy HD? (maybe Swanni did)

TVpredictions is a joke. Swanni actually guessed the exact opposite. That the war would be over by the end of the year, with BD victorious... and that pricing wasn't going to win the war.

As a BD supporter (formerly neutral), I agree with his points. However, those cheap $299 HD-A2's aren't going to give the average non-enthusiast user a terribly wonderful experience with HD unless they have a lot of patience.

Really? As a format neutral, I'd like to know why you believe "average non-enthusiast users" require a lot of patience to receive a "terribly wonderful experience".

As long as the consumer can control the medium[optical; discs in this case) thier will always be piracy and or hacking. I have an Idea why not stop selling burners and blank disc's for the software you are trying to protect??

More and more we are headed towards Video On Demand.

As long as the consumer can control the medium[optical; discs in this case) thier will always be piracy and or hacking. I have an Idea why not stop selling burners and blank disc's for the software you are trying to protect??

More and more we are headed towards Video On Demand.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6452274.html

...I have an Idea why not stop selling burners and blank disc's for the software you are trying to protect?? ...
You are not serious, are you ?

Isn't it a Hollywood web dream to stop sales of all recordable media/trechnology, starting from the very Betamax system invented then CE only Sony !? Fortunately, Supreme court settled it long before anyone else would try this stupid trick again, hence Hollywood's desire to transition to digital domain and DRM.

History does have a sense of humor though, it was Universal vs. Sony then, and it's Universal vs. Sony now, with some what reversed role :)

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6452274.html

In 2 years from now laptops will be faster, have more storage capacity and yet be both affordable and necessary for the average consumer in her daily tasks. How difficult could it be to move your laptop from your workroom to your living room and plug it into your receiver and watch a movie for the next couple of hours and then move it back to the workroom? No need for stand-alone player.

10-20 years is too far away for me, I'd say 2 years for VOD. Remember, nobody is really watching movies in HD today, the sales are too small.

..How difficult could it be to move your laptop from your workroom to your living room and plug it into your receiver and watch a movie for the next couple of hours and then move it back to the workroom? No need for stand-alone player.

10-20 years is too far away for me, I'd say 2 years for VOD. Remember, nobody is really watching movies in HD today, the sales are too small.
Why the need to even move your laptop, just streaming it,it's doable now, in 2 years for sure.

HD VOD is available now (Comcast even provides free HD VOD), 720p HD download from xbl is actually pretty nice and download a few GB takes a few hours, but simple and straightforward enough.

I don't see why HDM/VOD/DL can not co-exist.

In 2 years from now laptops will be faster, have more storage capacity and yet be both affordable and necessary for the average consumer in her daily tasks. How difficult could it be to move your laptop from your workroom to your living room and plug it into your receiver and watch a movie for the next couple of hours and then move it back to the workroom? No need for stand-alone player.

10-20 years is too far away for me, I'd say 2 years for VOD. Remember, nobody is really watching movies in HD today, the sales are too small.

So the experts say 10 to 20 years but you say 2. I am not trying to take a jab at you. More of a "wishful thinking" on your part IMO.

Getting the masses to give up DVD (medium based content carrier) is NOT going to be easy. The reason why that say 10 years as that represent a generation in time and the old generation will have died off leaving the baby boomers as the old generation - who have been weaned and feed VHS and DVD. The generation below the BB's will be the focus of the push for VOD as their lives and the PC have been married together since they were born.

In 1990 it was decided that the USA was going to switch to HDTV. First broadcast of HDTV - 1998.

see what I mean?

So the experts say 10 to 20 years but you say 2. I am not trying to take a jab at you. More of a "wishful thinking" on your part IMO.

Getting the masses to give up DVD (medium based content carrier) is NOT going to be easy. The reason why that say 10 years as that represent a generation in time and the old generation will have died off leaving the baby boomers as the old generation - who have been weaned and feed VHS and DVD. The generation below the BB's will be the focus of the push for VOD as their lives and the PC have been married together since they were born.

In 1990 it was decided that the USA was going to switch to HDTV. First broadcast of HDTV - 1998.

see what I mean?

Agreed. The technology is already there it will however take up to a decade for the mindset to catch up for most consumers. Early adopters will start much earlier. $4 billion in revenue by 2011. http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6418373.html?nid=2705

You are not serious, are you ?

Isn't it a Hollywood web dream to stop sales of all recordable media/trechnology, starting from the very Betamax system invented then CE only Sony !? Fortunately, Supreme court settled it long before anyone else would try this stupid trick again, hence Hollywood's desire to transition to digital domain and DRM.

History does have a sense of humor though, it was Universal vs. Sony then, and it's Universal vs. Sony now, with some what reversed role :)

Yes I am. Your point is lost on me... :rolleyes:

What is an "HDTV DVD?"

It's something like CableCard where you slide a DVD into the back of your HDTV. :p

Yes I am. Your point is lost on me... :rolleyes:
Well, perhaps do some search about Betamax case and you will see why Supreme court nipped this very bad idea in the bud.