Here is an article I wrote about the possiblity of a stalemate.


Critical claim: recent moves by both camps are solidifying consumer decision to wait.


http://www.tvpredictions.com/smith061707.htm


Bob

It's funny to me that you could mention this much about possible format- war outcomes, but by omission not mention hybrids/universal players as a possible resolution. To me it shows you have a hope that BD will win via the PS3 price-breaks.

In truth their could be consumer apathy for a number of reasons, but to my knowledge, there has been no official surveys to determine the cause of slow adoption of hi-def formats.

Hybrids/combos/THD's conceivably are a solution but I don't think so. I did not mention them because I think they are part of the uncertainty that the consumer faces.

I am perfectly happy to see HD DVD win but I don't see how it can do so. We are 14 months into its release and it is no closer to winning that it was a year ago (indeed, HD DVD was in better shape last summer than it is today.)

My main point is that people are not buying until things are resolved.

My main point is that people are not buying until things are resolved.


But thats a vicious circle, so format war will not be decided by this.

But thats a vicious circle, so format war will not be decided by this.

Yup, that is the point.

1. The studios and CE companies want the consumers to "vote" and decide.
2. The studios want more player adoption penetration before they ship more titles.
3. The consumers don't want to spend their money until things are decided and there is more product.


A classic stalemate.

at this point stalemate is the best possible outcome for hddvd. bd needs to get more quality content: games and movies. games will be huge...

I disagree about your point that there is confusion because there are two fornats, and consumers are willing to wait it out. I don't think consumers are interested because there is not enough improvment. DVD was WAAY beter than VHS because:

. Ease of going to the beginning of movie
. Ease of chapter skipping
. Everyone loves CD's, and DVD's are like CD's
. Nice computer-type technology touches such as menus and selecting options
. Covenient packaging size
. Wide-screen
. And probably least important, superior video and audio

Now, the advantage of HD DVD or BD over DVD is far less significant. It doesn't seem much different than DVD, and the improved video and audio is less dramatic than VHS to DVD. The main feature they notice, if anything, is wide-screen, which is no improvement, and all this isn't valued that highly anyway by the general public.

In the end, I believe the public will embrace either HD DVD or BD when it feels that it is just a nice added feature that they don't have to pay much for.

I remember swearing I'd never gove up my "superior" 8-track!

I also remember swearing I'm not rebuying all my VHS movie tapes as CD's!

We're just pawns...

:rolleyes:

Good article. Covered a lot of points to make the reader aware of what the whole picture looks like . . . .not just the small corner that HDD occupies. It definitly shows that change is upon us . . . and unfortunately, people, on the whole, don't like change.

Oh I agree that war is heading for a stalemate. But if you look at my signature, you can see my opinion on the war in general.

So here we have, IMO, 2 issues that are closely related: Issue #1 - the size of the market (willing buyers). Issue #2 - 2 formats.

Issue #1 - there are so few people in the USA who must have the latest and greatest when it comes to TV, let alone HT. And looking at the "fact" that almost 30 million homes have an HDTV is naive if you think that is the size of your potential market. It's not the number of homes that have an HDTV, but the number of homes that are watching HD on their HDTV . . . .which is a lot smaller than 30 million.

The early adopters are in. They have bought a player. Be it a standalone or a PS3. Now we are after the early mass adopters . . . and guess what? They don't seem to be buying in the quantities that the CEM's thought they would, hence the recent decline in projected sales.

Because these people are confused . . . . Issue #2.

Issue #2 - They went from VHS to DVD. Now there is a fork in the road and they are being asked to make a decision which way they will turn. So instead of left or right - they are standing still. The "no decision" decision. The longer this keeps up, the more the stalemate is on it's way to being the norm.

But I don't agree with your "solution" that we should dump HD DVD in favor of BD . . . for many reasons, which I would appreciate not having to discuss here. And I guess i am not alone in my thinking.

But again, it is a well written article with many different "mini issues" within it to help the reader understand what is going on in the "world of HD."

Kudo's to you sir.

But I don't agree with your "solution" that we should dump HD DVD in favor of BD . . . for many reasons, which I would appreciate not having to discuss here. And I guess i am not alone in my thinking.


Thanks for your kind and thoughtful comments. I also like your analysis.

One point: I don't have anything against HD DVD and would readily accept it if it wins. It does seem to me that Blu-ray is closer to victory than HD DVD.

I agree with Jeff's post. I think that the lack of adoption so far is because people are happy with DVD. High def players have to get cheaper, meaning a list price of $199 and sale prices approaching $99 before people will really jump into it. And even then most people won't care.


Good article, Robert. While most of your article seemed to be "fair and balanced," your discussion of the prices of BD players omitted an important fact. The price of BD players has barely fallen in the last seven months. Remember, the PS3 WAS available for $499. That is what the new Sony player is listing for. The discounting will make the new Sony player cheaper, but quite frankly, would you recommend the new Sony player over the PS3, considering the spec limitations of the Sony standalone and the faster depreciation? You talk about the potential for a PS3 price drop. Yeah, but that is after Sony essentially RAISED the price of the PS3 by $100. So do you really think a price drop would mean much, and what are the odds that the price drop will be more than $100?

One more thing. I think that people have realized that often it is a waste of money to buy a title when they could rent it for much less. Many people, especially early adopters, have a huge, and I do mean huge, collection of DVDs, most of which will never be watched again now that that we have been spoiled by high def. That is a lot of money that was thrown away on collections that have depreciated drastically. Add to this the much too high cost of high def software right now, and Netflix becomes the beneficiary.

Stalemate Over

Blockbuster just announced that starting next month, they are ONLY carrying BD in their 1450 stores, nationwide, with the exception of the 250 that were used for the experiment where they will continue to carry HD DVD.

The Format war is over! BD won!

There is no "counter punch." This a nuclear bomb going off in the format war.

EXCELLENT!

No more forum fights.

No more fanboys.

the closest blockbuster to me is over 5 miles away....not worth renting from. If I do mail order, I'll choose NetFlix. Oh, and BB and Netflix rent both formats online.

Now when BB online and Netflix both drop one HD format (the same one) then the "war" may have started up again, but it is at a stalemate now and will be for the foreseeable future.

If BD would get rid of their crazy region control, I might buy a player now...but I love the price and fact that there is no region control on HD DVD, the reason I bought one now. (Plus I'll spend the same amount with HD DVD now and BD in a few years when the players are around $200-$250 as if I would have just buying BD today).

Stalemate Over
The Format war is over! BD won!


Again :D :p

Stalemate Over

Blockbuster just announced that starting next month, they are ONLY carrying BD in their 1450 stores, nationwide, with the exception of the 250 that were used for the experiment where they will continue to carry HD DVD.I figure that you are joking about the stalemate over part. It's just one factor here, although recent Nielsen numbers and some of the stores I frequent (Wal-Mart, Fry's, and Best Buy) expanding their space for Blu-ray and either shrinking or leaving their space for HD DVD alone so that the ratio is close to 2:1 for space doesn't seem like a good sign from those I've personally seen recently. Although the Circuit City I go to still has even space from each from what I can tell. And I forgot about a Best Buy not far from Microsoft that expanded both their Blu-ray section and their HD DVD section to still have about the same amount of space for each.

As I've said before, I think the HD DVD side needs Disney to go neutral and the Blu-ray side needs Universal to go neutral. These other factors like the one mentioned and player sales to me are mostly just precursors to one of those 2 things happening and changing the war significantly.

--Darin

Stalemate Over

Blockbuster just announced that starting next month, they are ONLY carrying BD in their 1450 stores, nationwide, with the exception of the 250 that were used for the experiment where they will continue to carry HD DVD.

The Format war is over! BD won!

There is no "counter punch." This a nuclear bomb going off in the format war.

EXCELLENT!

No more forum fights.

No more fanboys.

You got a link for this ????

i just hope this doesn't turn out like sacd vs dvd-a and leave us the consumer without anything.

Here is an article I wrote about the possiblity of a stalemate.
Critical claim: recent moves by both camps are solidifying consumer decision to wait.
http://www.tvpredictions.com/smith061707.htm
Bob
You wrote earlier that BR will win sometimes in 2007 (http://www.tvpredictions.com/rsmith122906.htm ). Is that still your prediction, given what you wrote now ?

Issue #1....Issue #2....

Then there's issue #3....the price of energy and healthcare have alot of people holding on to their money for essentials. Even if the Blockbuster deal springs Blu some, #3 lurks in the shadows.

That's a nice little article Bob. You were very economical and didn't waste words. :)

You wrote earlier that BR will win sometimes in 2007 (http://www.tvpredictions.com/rsmith122906.htm ). Is that still your prediction, given what you wrote now ?

I remember the article. I followed it up a week later (after CES) with an article that said Blu-ray had a clear lead and would would have some time to close the deal.

They haven't closed the deal yet. The loss of the Fox/MGM titles and the renewed energey from Universal have changed the equation.

So my prediction today is that I don't know what will happen. I would guess: either Blu-ray closes the deal in 2007 or we move into 2008 looking like a stalemate.

1. The studios and CE companies want the consumers to "vote" and decide.
2. The studios want more player adoption penetration before they ship more titles.
3. The consumers don't want to spend their money until things are decided and there is more product.


It's worth noting that a number of the studios don't seem to be interested in giving people the chance to vote for anything other than the one format they've endorsed exclusively. Perhaps they're trying to end the stalemate more quickly with that strategy? Yes, you may call me Master of the Obvious. ;)

Bradley

I remember the article. I followed it up a week later (after CES) with an article that said Blu-ray had a clear lead and would would have some time to close the deal.

They haven't closed the deal yet. The loss of the Fox/MGM titles and the renewed energey from Universal have changed the equation.

So my prediction today is that I don't know what will happen. I would guess: either Blu-ray closes the deal in 2007 or we move into 2008 looking like a stalemate.
It shows us the peril trying to predict future :)

Sony showed BR's major trump card in PS3, it failed to deliver a knockout punch. The other two minor trump cards: (1) wider CE support failed pretty miserably considering Toshiba outsold them all by a comfortable margin and introduction of dual format players; (2) contents as trump card is missing in action.

HD DVD has always been an under dog, being declared DOA by vast majority of "experts" even before its launch. So just being at stalemate a year from launch of both formats represents a major victory. My guess both formats will stay with us for a while, I really doubt it will be resolved in 2007. When all dust settles, I am sure this format war will be a must read for business students, especially if HD DVD wins.

HDM will remain a niche market for quite a while, its adoption faces an uphill battle. Even though HDTV becomes more and more popular, one of the greatest benefits of HDTV is to realize full potential of DVDs people already have, SDTV simply does not do justice to SD DVD. HDM on smaller HDTVS (50" or less 720p sets) do not really show enough PQ improvement to justify the cost of entry to mainstream consumers unfortunately, based on my personal experience :(

Consumers are buying HDTV's because they are "flat-panels." The're slimmer and look really "cool" on their new stands. Perhaps if the HD films were to be released on say a 32GB Class 6 SDHC cards, that people could put in their wallets, they would have interest in "hi-def" movies.

I think it's more than that, HD broadcast (OTA/cable) does look much better than their SD counterparts, even on smaller HDTVs. Discovery HD looks fabulous on any HDTVs. However, because today's DVDs have much nicer PQ, any PQ improvement from DVD to HDM is much smaller than SD vs. HD programs, it's hard to convince average consumers to cross that high entry barrier.

Same topic discussed here Bob (sans article).

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=860262

Concise article, but I can't help but think it is already out of date ...

Bob, how important do you think the recent Blockbuster news is? vis a vis "breaking" the stalemate?

From the article:
But what do consumers think? My guess is that consumers have decided that they will be interested in an HD disk player to go with their new HDTV sets, but only when the format war is resolved.
...
Consumers are waiting. And unless I am wrong, all of the recent talk about new players, lower prices, and more titles, has simply confirmed the prevailing consumer attitude: wait until it is over.

I'm not waiting until it's over, only for a BD player with full spec. I've already found BD has most of the movies I like, esp. new releases.

Bob, how important do you think the recent Blockbuster news is? vis a vis "breaking" the stalemate?

I'm not Bob, but my two cents is that it's important in the sense that it's "good press" for blu-ray (and bad for HD DVD).

But in terms of adoption/sales/rentals/etc, it doesn't mean much. Blockbuster stores are a dying business... they've been losing MAJOR money during this entire decade and are now just a small shadow of their former selves. The only place where they're actually growing is via online rentals. And they're format-neutral there.


Sorry, Lee... but this isn't a "nuclear bomb" to end the war. It doesn't mean much except that Blockbuster decided the market for high def rentals is too small right now to bother stocking both formats when they go wide. Certainly bad news for HD DVD, but hardly a crushing blow. Consumers still get to have their say, and you can bet every penny of your BBI stock that they'll add HD DVD to all stores if the numbers start to dictate that makes sense.

Concise article, but I can't help but think it is already out of date ...

Bob, how important do you think the recent Blockbuster news is? vis a vis "breaking" the stalemate?

Yes, it was out of date an hour after it was posted.

The BB announcement is the kind of thing that can break the stalemate. Whether or not it specifically does remains to be seen. It may become the tipping point if several things start to follow now.

As I understand it from various articles, BB looked at their own sales and Videoscan numbers, lists of upcoming releases and new titles from the studios, and decided that the situation was not going to change. Like all retailers, they also hate the idea of double stocking and really want the format war to be finished.

Right now, as many have speculated, I think the next thing to look for is Weinstein. They haven't scheduled any new HD DVD releases (not that they have much product!), and they have a 4-year rental exclusive with BB. So they may well be supporting Blu-ray. Harvey Weinstein is one of the shrewdest and most mercurial people in the business so you never know what he is going to do, but it would be very symbolic if we were to see that.

HDM will remain a niche market for quite a while, its adoption faces an uphill battle. Even though HDTV becomes more and more popular, one of the greatest benefits of HDTV is to realize full potential of DVDs people already have, SDTV simply does not do justice to SD DVD. HDM on smaller HDTVS (50" or less 720p sets) do not really show enough PQ improvement to justify the cost of entry to mainstream consumers unfortunately, based on my personal experience :(

Not so sure.

I was at a party last night where HD disks and in particular the BB decision were a heated topic. One had just ordered a Sony BDP-S300 (the first person I know to buy a nextgen player without my buying it for them.)

Everyone there expressed a desire to buy a nextgen player (indeed, they had been scoping them out) and are just waiting for the format war to conclude.

Interestingly, one person is a product manager for Microsoft (but not in this space). He thought the BB announcement was very significant (but just his personal opinion).

With over 30% of the public now having an HDTV, and with NTSC broadcasting fading fast, I think things are very ripe once the format war is resolved.

If it is resolved.


Thanks for your post.

It's worth noting that a number of the studios don't seem to be interested in giving people the chance to vote for anything other than the one format they've endorsed exclusively. Perhaps they're trying to end the stalemate more quickly with that strategy? Yes, you may call me Master of the Obvious. ;)

Bradley


Exactly! If I am studio backing one of the formats and I want the format war to end to end the confusion in the market place, then why would I publish on the competing format. It is still a niche business so I may giving up a few sales by denying the other side product, but in the long run it is a winning strategy if the other side blinks first due to low sales.

Wesley said:
HDM on smaller HDTVS (50" or less 720p sets) do not really show enough PQ improvement to justify the cost of entry ...

I own a 50 in. Panny, but at Costco I was watching a HD movie on one of the 50 in. displays and though the picture was better, just like you said, the PQ did not justify the cost of 2 new players and replacing my current collection. BUT...There was also a 63 in. panel on display and BOY DID THE HD pic look niiiiccce.

I'm actually waiting for a decent price Universal player before jumping into the HD disc scene.

Not so sure.

I was at a party last night where HD disks and in particular the BB decision were a heated topic. One had just ordered a Sony BDP-S300 (the first person I know to buy a nextgen player without my buying it for them.)

Everyone there expressed a desire to buy a nextgen player (indeed, they had been scoping them out) and are just waiting for the format war to conclude.

Interestingly, one person is a product manager for Microsoft (but not in this space). He thought the BB announcement was very significant (but just his personal opinion).

With over 30% of the public now having an HDTV, and with NTSC broadcasting fading fast, I think things are very ripe once the format war is resolved.

If it is resolved.


Thanks for your post.
The general public is not going to go out and buy a BDP-S300 for $500. The problem with Blockbuster helping to FORCE an end to the war is that it forces the general public to go with the more expensive format. No matter how inexpensive Blu-ray players will eventually get, HD DVD players would have been less. What would have been fair in this war is for all studios to release on both formats, stores giving equal treatments to both formats, and letting the chips fall where they may. However, life isn't fair, and obviously the BDA is doing everything they can to force the more expensive, less developed, format onto the general public. Just wait until the guy buying the BDP-S300 finds out that after this fall it is no longer state of the art for a Blu-ray player. We may all be forced to buy Blu-ray players eventually, but there's no way in hell that I would buy one right now. Blockbusters decision is not consumer friendly no matter how you guys try to spin it.

Thanks for your kind and thoughtful comments. I also like your analysis.

One point: I don't have anything against HD DVD and would readily accept it if it wins. It does seem to me that Blu-ray is closer to victory than HD DVD.

As one of those individuals that you apparently feel is "stalemated", what is your evidence that BDR "is closer to victory than HD DVD"?

As one of those individuals that you apparently feel is "stalemated", what is your evidence that BDR "is closer to victory than HD DVD"?

Disk sales, CE and studio support, now Blockbuster.

I think that Blu-ray also has more mindshare among the middle adopters although not the early adopters.

I still do not think that we are done yet.

Disk sales, CE and studio support, now Blockbuster.

I think that Blu-ray also has more mindshare among the middle adopters although not the early adopters.

I still do not think that we are done yet.

OK, I hear what you are saying but I don't agree.

Like I said before, a stalemate is Toshiba's best option... Meanwhile, force your competitor to spend enormous amonts of cash to save it's format.

Toshiba could care less about this "Blockbuster" announcement. BB's financial retail status is very weak right now. No big deal. Worst case 4-HD-DVD's for $20.00! Don't tick Toshiba off though... They end up retailing the A2 for something ridiculous and too cheap! Besides, with the recent sales promotion we don't know how the software sales will turn.

Everyone thinks they'll sit around and do nothing, yet their HD-DVD promoting has just begun. So far it has been very effective marketing and lured many blu-ray supporters to support both formats and thus a stalemate. I bet the A2 will go supper cheap during the summer months as the A3 comes out before Christmas.

Amazon's sales are something to watch!

Relax, things are about to get interesting. ;)

Don't forget...

Toshiba has an advantage and I don't think we will see Chinese players for awhile.

ONLY having Toshiba mfg HD-DVD allows them to make bigger price cuts down the road because of the consolidated sales volume. They don't have to share the market with anyone.

Like I said before, a stalemate is Toshiba's best option... Meanwhile, force your competitor to spend enormous amonts of cash to save it's format.

Toshiba could care less about this "Blockbuster" announcement. BB's financial retail status is very weak right now. No big deal. Worst case 4-HD-DVD's for $20.00! Don't tick Toshiba off though... They end up retailing the A2 for something ridiculous and too cheap! Besides, with the recent sales promotion we don't know how the software sales will turn.

Everyone thinks they'll sit around and do nothing, yet their HD-DVD promoting has just begun. So far it has been very effective marketing and lured many blu-ray supporters to support both formats and thus a stalemate. I bet the A2 will go supper cheap during the summer months as the A3 comes out before Christmas.

Amazon's sales are something to watch!

Relax, things are about to get interesting. ;)

Are you saying that you approve of a stalemate, or just that you think Toshiba will succeed at engineering one?

Don't forget...

Toshiba has an advantage and I don't think we will see Chinese players for awhile.

ONLY having Toshiba mfg HD-DVD allows them to make bigger price cuts down the road because of the consolidated sales volume. They don't have to share the market with anyone.Wow...Now that there's clear evidence that a Chinese Blu-ray player is on the horizon, while the Fuh Yuan HD DVD player has been retracted and debunked, Chinese players are suddenly BAD for a format?!

Wow, just wow.

This discussion supports my opinion that HD DVD backers would rather have both formats go down the tubes if HD DVD is not the winner. How short-sighted people....

Being a PS3 owner, yes I would like to see Blu-ray take control, but if HD DVD pulls off a miracle comeback and outright wins (meaning Blu-ray is gone the way of the dodo) then I will have no problem purchasing a HD DVD player. Over the last year I was so close to pulling the trigger on HD DVD, but I could not get over the fact that it had a huge number of obstacles in front of it (won't go into details as they been discussed ad nasuem here).

Now I fully admit Blu-ray had some problems out of the gate. The biggest issue I had with the first gen players was the price to feature ratio. Toshiba had this right from day one with HD DVD. And if were not for Toshiba, the BD group would have had no motivation to incorporate the new video and audio codecs into their product spec.

The point is I really don't care which format wins (even though I have a bias towards Blu-ray for its better raw technical specs), but we (HD DVD and BD supporters) must fight against the software and content companies taking away a physical medium. If HD DVD and BD fail we are going to be stuck with highly compressed/low bit-rate/over-filtered/no detail/pay-per-view HD downloads. If our hobby is truly about creating the best experience for viewing a movie at home, then we need a physical medium and we need a unified format.

If you think DRM is intrusive on BD (this is such a BS excuse for not supporting BD, the end experience is no different than HD DVD), then wait until you see it on HD downloads.

Have any of you see this Poll over at MSNBC?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19289649/

It is in the middle of the article in RED. You have to vote to get the results but over 13,500 people have voted and here are the latest results:

41% - BD
31% - HD DVD
9.9% - Too close to call
19% - I don't know

I don't see a clear winner on this poll which was posted in reaction to the BB announcement.

I see 41 % for BD - 31% for HD DVD and 28.9% still sitting on the fence . . .

Stalemate.

MSNBC....

See the connection...


HD DVD supporters I am sure are sounding off on this article as the poll result indicate, but you have to wonder how long Toshiba and Microsoft are going to keep this war going.

Again a stalemate is the worst thing that could happen here and if it does hang on to your wallets for HD pay-per-use downloads. $10.99 for a three-day window... DIVX returns minus the disc!!!

MSNBC....

See the connection...


HD DVD supporters I am sure are sounding off on this article as the poll result indicate, but you have to wonder how long Toshiba and Microsoft are going to keep this war going.

Again a stalemate is the worst thing that could happen here and if it does hang on to your wallets for HD pay-per-use downloads. $10.99 for a three-day window... DIVX returns minus the disc!!!

Unril they are absolutely 100% convinced that they can not win it and we are far from that point in time.

January 2008 will be the only time we will get a true read of the market and the success . . .or lack of . . . because you have to wait for the 2007 Xmas buying spree that happens every year.

And today HD DVD has the biggest tool in the tool box - price advantage on it's players which start at a very affordable $199 for the 360 AO.

Unril they are absolutely 100% convinced that they can not win it and we are far from that point in time.

January 2008 will be the only time we will get a true read of the market and the success . . .or lack of . . . because you have to wait for the 2007 Xmas buying spree that happens every year.

And today HD DVD has the biggest tool in the tool box - price advantage on it's players which start at a very affordable $199 for the 360 AO.

And today HD DVD has the biggest tool in the tool box - price advantage on it's players which start at a very affordable $199 for the 360 AO plus $300, $400 or $479 for a XBox console.

I am not going to get sucked into this... HD DVD has more obstacles to overcome, but again if HD DVD wins I will buy a console just like the Beta backers had to go VHS.

Lee,

Do you want a stalemate if HD DVD does not win? see post #42 why this bad for everyone who wants a quality HD medium.

I being an HD-DVD supporter would gladly purchase a blu-ray unit IF it was around my price margin.

I will only support a unit that is withing my price range. A stalemate is MY best option, thus forcing the movie industry to adapt to my prefered format.

If Sony can get it's act into gear and can provide some inexpensive units I will definitely support both formats like so may blu-ray adopters have done when Toshiba's price went very low.

Common sense here folks... Getting technical on these units and formats the public could care less about. They just want to show their new fancy unit off to the neighbor.

Why is the Wii doing so well?... Simple. It's cheap and fun. = Common Walmart American

Lee,

Do you want a stalemate if HD DVD does not win? see post #42 why this bad for everyone who wants a quality HD medium.

I am not following your logic. You refer to your previous post (#42) where you think downloads will "take over" thus eliminating HD DVD and BD. Have you read this article concerning downloads - it really is a panel discussion from experts in that field:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6452274.html

Aren't there something like 10 million Xbox 360's already installed? This is a pretty big potential market for the sale of the AO.

Do I want a stalemate?

Yes I do.

It is good for the consumer (us) and it is not good for the CEM's. I love that concept!

So far it has:

1. Caused the price of players to fall dramatically in a super short period of time.
2. Caused the studios to stop offering junk titles and get some good ones out.
3. Caused the BDA to switch over from MPEG2 to AVC and VC1 encoding
4. Caused Sony to "recall" a marginal to poor transfer (The Fifth Element) and retransfer it and provide an exchange for free (unheard of)
5. Stopped Sony's desire to "replace DVD in three years" (still laughing about that one)
6. Sales on movies like buy 1 get 1 free and buy 2 get 1 free(BD)

NONE of this would have happened if we only had 1 format. None of the above happened when DVD was introduced with it being the only format. I still have that stupid window boxed DVD of Blade Runner that I bought with my 1st DVD player ($800) on launch date.

Competition is healthy . . . for the consumer. :D

Yes, it was out of date an hour after it was posted.

The BB announcement is the kind of thing that can break the stalemate. Whether or not it specifically does remains to be seen. It may become the tipping point if several things start to follow now.

As I understand it from various articles, BB looked at their own sales and Videoscan numbers, lists of upcoming releases and new titles from the studios, and decided that the situation was not going to change. Like all retailers, they also hate the idea of double stocking and really want the format war to be finished.

Right now, as many have speculated, I think the next thing to look for is Weinstein. They haven't scheduled any new HD DVD releases (not that they have much product!), and they have a 4-year rental exclusive with BB. So they may well be supporting Blu-ray. Harvey Weinstein is one of the shrewdest and most mercurial people in the business so you never know what he is going to do, but it would be very symbolic if we were to see that.

Thanks! The Weinstein speculation alongside the BlockBuster news is indeed interesting.

I am not following your logic. You refer to your previous post (#42) where you think downloads will "take over" thus eliminating HD DVD and BD. Have you read this article concerning downloads - it really is a panel discussion from experts in that field:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6452274.html

Aren't there something like 10 million Xbox 360's already installed? This is a pretty big potential market for the sale of the AO.

Do I want a stalemate?

Yes I do.

It is good for the consumer (us) and it is not good for the CEM's. I love that concept!

So far it has:

1. Caused the price of players to fall dramatically in a super short period of time.
2. Caused the studios to stop offering junk titles and get some good ones out.
3. Caused the BDA to switch over from MPEG2 to AVC and VC1 encoding
4. Caused Sony to "recall" a marginal to poor transfer (The Fifth Element) and retransfer it and provide an exchange for free (unheard of)
5. Stopped Sony's desire to "replace DVD in three years" (still laughing about that one)
6. Sales on movies like buy 1 get 1 free and buy 2 get 1 free(BD)

NONE of this would have happened if we only had 1 format. None of the above happened when DVD was introduced with it being the only format. I still have that stupid window boxed DVD of Blade Runner that I bought with my 1st DVD player ($800) on launch date.

Competition is healthy . . . for the consumer. :D

Lee you are missing the point that if HD DVD and BD stalemate that it essentially means both are dead. Hello low quality HD downloads. MS can go f&ck themselves with that sh!t!!!

Lee you are missing the point that if HD DVD and BD stalemate that it essentially means both are dead. Hello low quality HD downloads. MS can go f&ck themselves with that sh!t!!!

That will just force cheaper dual format players.

As I see it combo disc would be the best way to put high def disc in peoples homes.

Then can people change their players after they bought a HDTV.

That will just force cheaper dual format players.

As I see it combo disc would be the best way to put high def disc in peoples homes.

Then can people change their players after they bought a HDTV.

A Combo disc unnecessarily raises the price and it only help the retailer and studio supporting both formats. It won't do anything for exclusive content.

IMHO, retailers have to take part in this format war and decide to drop one from storefronts. If they would have done this at the beginning, they would not be on the shaky ground they are now on. At this point if they pull the plug on one, they will just PO someone who bought the loser from their store.

There is a clear breach of anti-trust in Sony owning both a studio and the manufacturer of Blue Ray players. This seems to be a case where either the FCC or the Justice Department should require that Blue Ray studios allow HD DVD access to their media to allow competition. Don't hold you breath though, after all the present administration let Microsoft off the hook after it was found guilty of anti-trust violations.

There is a clear breach of anti-trust in Sony owning both a studio and the manufacturer of Blue Ray players. This seems to be a case where either the FCC or the Justice Department should require that Blue Ray studios allow HD DVD access to their media to allow competition. Don't hold you breath though, after all the present administration let Microsoft off the hook after it was found guilty of anti-trust violations.

How is this Anti-trust ? Sony is not the only studio nor are they the only manufacturer of Blu-ray players. That's like saying Apple should be sued because they only install Mac OSX on their computers.

The format war is just hurting the HD video market. Even if Blu-Ray wins (and they probably will - the only advantage HD-DVD has is lower hardware pricing (for now)), they will still have an uphill battle competing with SD-DVD. Sony has more at stake in this war than Toshiba , the greater industry support (studios, CE), and better technical specs. HD-DVD probably really lost this battle when Warner and Paramount went format neutral.

There is a clear breach of anti-trust in Sony owning both a studio and the manufacturer of Blue Ray players. This seems to be a case where either the FCC or the Justice Department should require that Blue Ray studios allow HD DVD access to their media to allow competition. Don't hold you breath though, after all the present administration let Microsoft off the hook after it was found guilty of anti-trust violations.

It isn't anti trust - it's just unfair competition that has not (or not yet) been used by Sony.

Sony also has gotten away with breaking the famous Paramount Agreement ( I think that was what it was called) from the early 1950's (which forced the studios to sell off their movie theaters) which stated that there are three chains in the movie business:

1. Production
2. Distribution
3. Presentation

The agreement said a studio can only own two. Sony is the only studio that owns all three.

What was happening was that with all three - you could restrict your movies to your theaters. And this is what the studios were doing

Can you imagine what would have happened today if Sony released Spiderman(s) ONLY at Sony owned theaters?

Sony has never done this and will never do it.

The only one who gets away with this is IMAX because it is unique - and not a threat to Hollywood.

Yup, that is the point.

1. The studios and CE companies want the consumers to "vote" and decide.
2. The studios want more player adoption penetration before they ship more titles.
3. The consumers don't want to spend their money until things are decided and there is more product.


A classic stalemate.


I don't accept premise #3. Can someone give me empirical evidence that this is the case. Or is it merely intuition. Those on this site who suggest that there should be one format now because it's bad for the consumer are merely suggesting something because they want their beloved format to be victorious. Sorry to disagree with this nice little intuition proclaimed repeatedly as a mantra by various talking heads, manufacturers, sellers.

The reality is that the high def market is an emerging market. It's not a settled market like dvd has now become. It's experimental, exploratory, etc. That's why we have a plethora of choices in the display realm: DLP, plasma, LCD, DLP backlit LED, 1080p/i, 720p, etc. etc. Even more, high def content through cable/satellite is also an emerging and growth market but it still accounts for a very small percentage of the viewing public out there. What did you expect? As soon as HD DVD/Blu Ray was introduced did anybody honestly believe people would flock to these choices when they barely can make their minds up whether to get that new digital tv?

The amount of rhetoric going on here, proclaiming some kind of magical insight into a market - high definition - which is just barely getting off its feet, is ridiculous.

Assuming the slow growth is attributable to the fact the market for high definition itself is slow and progressive is more valid than proclaiming some intuition about why people aren't running off to stores buying HD DVD/Blu Ray. Bill Hunt himself cited statistics suggesting the growth was in fact (as a combined phenomena) essentially at pace with what dvd was.

So as long as this market is yet an emerging market a stalemate will push the technology further and the prices down. Then when people are actually flocking to stores buying high def display devices, and buying those high def cable/satellite packages in droves the market will be in a position to determine a real winner.

I think ultimately blu-ray will continue to be the dominant HD disc format but HD-DVD will linger for some time. With an installed base of about 300K players with increasing numbers every month for at least the rest of the year there are enough users who will continue to consume content as long as it is available.

I absolutely do not believe that consumers will select blu-ray over SD though. It will be interesting to see if the manufacturers and content providers will try and force an upgrade once the dust has settled ala the computer industry.

Being a PS3 owner, yes I would like to see Blu-ray take control, but if HD DVD pulls off a miracle comeback and outright wins (meaning Blu-ray is gone the way of the dodo) then I will have no problem purchasing a HD DVD player. Over the last year I was so close to pulling the trigger on HD DVD, but I could not get over the fact that it had a huge number of obstacles in front of it (won't go into details as they been discussed ad nasuem here).

Now I fully admit Blu-ray had some problems out of the gate. The biggest issue I had with the first gen players was the price to feature ratio. Toshiba had this right from day one with HD DVD. And if were not for Toshiba, the BD group would have had no motivation to incorporate the new video and audio codecs into their product spec.

The point is I really don't care which format wins (even though I have a bias towards Blu-ray for its better raw technical specs), but we (HD DVD and BD supporters) must fight against the software and content companies taking away a physical medium. If HD DVD and BD fail we are going to be stuck with highly compressed/low bit-rate/over-filtered/no detail/pay-per-view HD downloads. If our hobby is truly about creating the best experience for viewing a movie at home, then we need a physical medium and we need a unified format.

If you think DRM is intrusive on BD (this is such a BS excuse for not supporting BD, the end experience is no different than HD DVD), then wait until you see it on HD downloads.
Here, here!

The "war" is against SD. I have the same opinion, just a slight bias the other way. I see some huge hurdles for both sides in the adoption race.

Scenario one:

Mom, Dad & the kid go to BB looking for the new Pirates movie. They look & see a BD version along with an SD version - they realize the BD won't play in the kids room, the car, just the home theater. Parent say "no way we're buying TWO copies". Let's get the SD version, it will play everywhere.

Scenario two:

Mom, Dad & the kid go to BB looking for the Ant Bully movie. They look & see the SD version for $19.99 or the combo for over $30. Well that's nice, the combo plays everywhere but the parents are NOT about to spend $30 on a movie. Sorry son but are you out of your freak'n mind? No way - here take the $19.99 SD version.

Scenario three:

Mom, Dad & the kid go to over to some friends house & watch movie on their new Sony BDP150 player. For a bit of extra entertainment the look at some of the extras. Everyone agrees that was kinda cool, they go home & try to do the same on their BDP-300.........WTF????? It doesn't work. Hello sony? What the HELL do you mean it won't work on my player???? I just bought it this summer for 500 freak'n dollars!!!


I see quite a few issues awaiting both sides............meanwhile Microsoft & Apple are sitting on the sidelines rubbing their hands & laughing...."I told you they'd screw it up, they're ready for DRM'd to the hilt downloads of HD lite now!"

I don't accept premise #3. Can someone give me empirical evidence that this is the case. Or is it merely intuition.

["Premise #3 is the proposition that people are not buying because of the format war.]

My own anecdotal data is that I cannot get anybody to buy either format (unless I buy for them which I have done now).

I was at a party Sunday night, and one person there had finally bought (the new Sony Blu-ray). One person's father works as a home theatre installer, and there was plenty of knowledge and expertise in the room. The conventional wisdom: wait until the format war is over.

BTW everyone at the party believed that Blu-ray would win except someone who works at Microsoft. But he was shocked when he heard of the BB deal (which had just been leaked a few hours earlier), and intoned: "That's bad."

HDTV's are flying off of the shelves here. I have actually had trouble getting through the aisles because of all of the flatscreens being moved around and purchased. You see people with a new HDTV and an upscaling DVD player, but where are the nextgen players? People are waiting.

Nationally, we have over a 30% penetration of HDTV and about 1-2% effective penetration of HD DVD and Blu-ray combined (judging from disk sales figures).

You cannot buy a DVD player today that does not have upscaling and HDMI (basically). You cannot buy an SD TV lacking HDMI. This is today at Bestbuy or Frys.

I predict that two years after the format war is over, you will not be able to buy a classic DVD player either. It will happen that quickly once the format war is resolved.

Nationally, we have over a 30% penetration of HDTV and about 1-2% effective penetration of HD DVD and Blu-ray combined (judging from disk sales figures).

This is 30% penetration after approx 7 years +.

And anecdotal evidence - just like everything else that passes on this forum for proof when it comes to anecdotal stories, it's not.

Though it's fun reading all the predictions about the outcome of this, some base their logic on the premise that the BR format is technically superior. I disagree! That's like saying a car is better because it has more horsepower. To me technical excellence is achieved with a careful balance of cost versus benefit, while being able to meet the objective. The fact that HD DVD met the objective (HD movies) with a less expensive and simpler process is a greater achievement. It uses existing production lines too, making the changeover to HD a smoother process for disc manufacturers.

HD DVD is the greater technical achievement!

Dave

Though it's fun reading all the predictions about the outcome of this, some base their logic on the premise that the BR format is technically superior. I disagree! That's like saying a car is better because it has more horsepower. To me technical excellence is achieved with a careful balance of cost versus benefit, while being able to meet the objective. The fact that HD DVD met the objective (HD movies) with a less expensive and simpler process is a greater achievement. It uses existing production lines too, making the changeover to HD a smoother process for disc manufacturers.

HD DVD is the greater technical achievement!

Dave

Odd then that there is no significant difference in cost to the consumer.

Odd then that there is no significant difference in cost to the consumer.
$100-$200 is significant...at least in my wallet :)

But hey if it's not to you, I'll PM you my address...just send the money my way :p

Edit: if you were talking about the media, I would have to agree.

Disc prices at this stage have not yet settled down. Ultimately, production cost will limit the minimum price.

Dave

Disc prices at this stage have not yet settled down. Ultimately, production cost will limit the minimum price.

Dave

Higher demand = high production = lower cost = lower price to the consumer -- in theory anyway.

Unless of course demand out paces production increases, then we could see higher prices (ala gasoline)

$100-$200 is significant...at least in my wallet :)

But hey if it's not to you, I'll PM you my address...just send the money my way :p

Edit: if you were talking about the media, I would have to agree.

I would probablt buy one of the players with the Reon chip for which the difference is more like $40. That said, if $100-$200 is a significant amount of money for you or anyone else, the smart move would be to buy neither and wait a while. Early adopting is a rich/single mans sport (or should be).

OP, the only problem with articles like this is the omit the fact the everyday consumer is a non-factor in our world.

"Commentary
Blu-ray vs HD DVD: Are We Headed for Stalemate?
By Robert Smith
HD Observer

Palo Alto, California (June 17, 2007) -- The format war between Blu-ray and HD DVD appears to be headed into a new phase, one in which consumers are waiting for a winner to be decided. If a winner does not emerge soon, a stalemate is possible, with both formats losing.

The first phase of the format war was the launch, when HD DVD appeared to be winning because of higher-quality titles and lower pricing. But HD DVD failed to close the deal last fall, leaving an opening for the Sony’s PS3 to work its magic.

The PS3 shipped in November and, while not a stunning success in the video game world, sold enough machines to change the dynamic of the format war. Blu-ray has been impressively ahead all year. But Blu-ray didn’t close the deal either.

We have moved into the beginnings of a price war. Toshiba reduced the price of its players for a month-long sale, and obviously saw some action. But the Videoscan disk sales numbers do not show a big move to HD DVD as a result. Sony and Panasonic are now shipping newer, cheaper players, with Sony’s BDP-S300 listing at $499.

The shipment of titles has evened out. Several months ago, Blu-ray was out-producing HD DVD by a factor of two on a monthly basis, but this has changed. HD DVD-exclusive Universal is blitzing the market with catalog titles, and Blu-ray exclusive studio Fox (along with MGM) has apparently withdrawn from the market until the BD+ encryption scheme is operational. We now see a rough parity in titles for the next several months.

But what is the impact of titles? A title like The Departed may sell 100,000 copies (both formats combined), but this is less than 2% of the overall sales for the title. More importantly, what do such titles do to increase adoption? There is no evidence that key titles like The Departed (or Casino Royale or The Matrix) actually sell machines.

The role of content in the format war is being questioned. All studios seem to be realizing that catalog titles, however inviting, do not sell very well on HD DVD or Blu-ray, and that new titles do much better. This contradicts the studios’ previous experience with VHS and DVD, but it makes sense. Twenty years of video formats have left most early adopters with large collections of LD’s, VHS’s, and most of all, DVD’s, so high-priced and unmotivated catalog titles do not have as much appeal as was expected. Even titles like The Matrix have not sold spectacularly well. Hence, studios are pulling catalog titles until a later period when adoption has increased. "

The great majority of the general public don't even know this stuff exists, and those that do know it from articles like this.
Forget many of them ever seeing the difference on a huge display, it just doesn't happen.

We make up the HD community. This is for US. Leave the minons their SD and stale crackers. They want a new car instead anyway.

The winner of this "war" will not be decided by you or me. It will be won by J6P and the larger retailers.
The Studios know this, Sony and Toshiba know this and just about everyone in on this knows it. The question is how do you get J6P to get your product? First they need to get a HD Set. These are becoming more and more prevalent but they have not reached a good number of households. That is the number you should be looking at. Once the HD sets hit a good number of the market, then things will heat up, right now, it's all posturing and hoping the other guy blinks.

The winner of this "war" will not be decided by you or me. It will be won by J6P and the larger retailers.
The Studios know this, Sony and Toshiba know this and just about everyone in on this knows it. The question is how do you get J6P to get your product? First they need to get a HD Set. These are becoming more and more prevalent but they have not reached a good number of households. That is the number you should be looking at. Once the HD sets hit a good number of the market, then things will heat up, right now, it's all posturing and hoping the other guy blinks.

The numbers will increase, no doubt. However, I wouldn't wait on J6P. The ones in my area are much more interested in a NEW car/SUV. The great majority of J6Ps won't own HD until that's the ONLY display to buy. Remember, over half of the HD displays bought today are NOT connected to HD receivers or players.

They simply don't cherish good video the way we do.