Blockbuster Blu-ray announcement: Master Thread [Text View] - Page 8

todrigo

06-20-07, 03:37 PM

More New Title suggestions (all tongue in cheek)

for the I have been to blockbuster in years crowd
"GREAT NEWS FOR B&M MOVIE RENTALS - BLOCKBUSTER ANNOUNCES IT IS STILL OPEN IN AT LEAST 1700 LOCATIONS."

for the this needs to be a more politically correct title group
"GREAT (or insignificat) NEWS FOR BLU-RAY (or HD-DVD) - BLOCKBUSTER WILL ADD BLU-RAY AT 1450 LOCATIONS (it's still a small % though) 250 LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BOTH (online will still have both too)"

for the format neutral crowd
"GREAT NEWS FOR HI-DEF DISCS - BLOCKBUSTER WILL ADD SUPPORT AT 1450 STORES"

for the DVD is still king crowd
"GREAT NEWS FOR DVD - ALL BLOCKBUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THIS FORMAT"

for the attach rate crowd
"GREAT NEWS FOR HD-DVD - ATTACH RATES WILL REMAIN HIGH AS BLOCKBUSTER B&M OPTIONS DRY UP"

for the nobody outside of AVS even cares crowd
"GREAT NEWS FOR BLU-RAY & HD-DVD - SOMEONE ACTUALY MENTIONED THEIR EXISTANCE ON THE NEWS WHEN IT WAS ANNOUNCED THAT BLOCKBUSTER WILL EXPAND BLU-RAY SUPPORT TO 1450 MORE STORES"

for the it's never over as long as one person believes crowd
"GREAT NEWS FOR HD-DVD - BLOCKBUSTER ADMITS PUBLICLY THAT SOME PEOPLE ARE RENTING HD-DVD'S"

for the it's all a conspiracy crowd
"GREAT NEWS FOR BLU-RAY - SONY HAS WORKED A BACKROOM DEAL WITH BLOCKBUSTER TO PROVIDE USED COPIES OF THE FIFTH ELEMENT (the bad transfer) TO 1450 STORES AFTER JULY."

I appologise if I did not include every crowd it's just that there are some many different to keep track of ones.

plasmalover

06-20-07, 03:39 PM

I am puzzled by why the title for this thread keeps changing.

The real story, as repeated everywhere in the media, is the near-endorsement of Blu-ray by Blockbuster.

The current title now weakens this as much as possible in favor of HD DVD.

Before it changes again, here is the current title:

"250 Blockbuster B&M stores carry Blu-ray & HD DVD - 1450 more to carry Blu-ray only! "

Who is changing this, and why?

There is a reason why the thread keeps on changing. Its the fact that a few "vocal" HD-DVD supports whine and bitch about their format dying that the mods will cater to these few vocal posters. It happened the same way with the whole Fett incident; everything was fine until Fett put Matrix a step below some of the Blu-ray movies and all hell broke lose. The insecurity in the HD-DVD supporters is out of control and they will spin anything positive their way.

And they talk about Sony's viral Hydra machine.....

Jiffylush

06-20-07, 03:39 PM

Jim_Pullan

06-20-07, 03:41 PM

Lee Stewart

06-20-07, 03:43 PM

Squabble over titles? Why not comment on Panasonic's COO interview with TWICE and contribute some substance? I'm one who enjoys both formats offerings and have both players, but it certainly appears to me that HD-DVD is not having a very good week, especially with the manuever by Blockbuster and the statement by Panasonic's COO regarding both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. Are the domino's now falling ? [Jim]

Just waiting for the other announcements to come from Samsung, Phillips, LG and Pioneer . . . .

You know - the other BD exclusive CEM's :D

And to stay on topic . . . cause when you walk into BB and rent a BD you are going to need a player to play it on . . .

And have you seen the review that Engadet gave to the new Sony S300?

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/06/20/sonys-bdp-s300-blu-ray-player-gets-reviewed/

Oops . . . . :eek:

plazman

06-20-07, 03:43 PM

It's funny the COO of Panasonic would say that given that HD DVD has 60% of the set top market and 40% of the software sales market. Obviously what he is saying is just not politically incorrect, but factually as well.

The BDA strategy is come on the news and declare the war is over ever so often and create that perception. Has anyone figured out that on the ground end of Q2 BDA is in worse shape than end of Q1. I would love for someone to show me a metric that says BDA gained momentum over HD DVD in Q2. HD DVD increased their market share for both software and hardware.

Panasonic is the #2 backer of BD after Sony, so what they say about the end of the format war must be taken with a grain of sand....Sony reps were saying back in March that the format war was finally over. I just downloaded an episode of Lil Bush on my iPod....reminds me of the BDA :)

jdg345

06-20-07, 03:43 PM

Uh,,,,I'm late...

Oh ... wow ... sorry ... I hear the EPT tests are good and easy to read ... :p

Jiffylush

06-20-07, 03:45 PM

What's with all this Title dwelling? Doesn't anyone on this Forum contribute seriously? Can you recommend a Forum that is more intelligent, that addresses today's A/V issues, without all the stupid comments? {jim}

Basically every part of this forum except for the BD/HD DVD area and the PS3/XBOX area occasionally.

Don't judge AVS based on this bit, there are great people and great resources here.

Jiffylush

06-20-07, 03:45 PM

Oh ... wow ... sorry ... I hear the EPT tests are good and easy to read ... :p

That was pretty good...

JackBee

06-20-07, 03:47 PM

His opinion is shared by many HD fans on both sides.

Anyone without an Agenda would say that.

Rich Peterson

06-20-07, 03:47 PM

Because I knew of no other place to put it !!! This seemed appropriate and I could get input back from you guys, hopefully with serious content, not just arguing over a thread title or where something should go. [Jim]
The Panasonic quote is being discussed in this thread (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=864222) in this forum.

WayneL

06-20-07, 03:49 PM

There is a reason why the thread keeps on changing. Its the fact that a few "vocal" HD-DVD supports whine and bitch about their format dying that the mods will cater to these few vocal posters. It happened the same way with the whole Fett incident; everything was fine until Fett put Matrix a step below some of the Blu-ray movies and all hell broke lose. The insecurity in the HD-DVD supporters is out of control and they will spin anything positive their way.

And they talk about Sony's viral Hydra machine.....
The mods are trying to be format-neutral, so they are being sensitive to thread headlines that unfairly treat one group or the other. They title went from - this is the HD-DVD meltdown - to a reflection of what BB is actually doing. Fair and balanced. :)

Now about your comment.......

Jiffylush

06-20-07, 03:50 PM

Just waiting for the other announcements to come from Samsung, Phillips, LG and Pioneer . . . .

You know - the other BD exclusive CEM's :D

And to stay on topic . . . cause when you walk into BB and rent a BD you are going to need a player to play it on . . .

And have you seen the review that Engadet gave to the new Sony S300?

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/06/20/sonys-bdp-s300-blu-ray-player-gets-reviewed/

Oops . . . . :eek:

Hometheaterblog.com reviewed it, they said the picture quality was a little better than the PS3, here is the summary from the review:

Summary: I’m in a bit of a pickle here as to a recommendation based on the Java sluggishness alone but I’m going to go out on a limb for Sony. (Yes mark your calendars) Having seen first-hand how other hi-def disc players have been firmware updated to overcome quirky menus and other minor incompatibility issues, I’m relatively confident that once those inevitable updates reach the BDP-S300 it will warrant a full recommendation.

Given the fact that dealer discounting and further price drops will eventually soften the $499 (MSRP) blow even further, perhaps my real recommendation would go something like: the BDP-S300 is a good player now but with further incentives combined with a firmware update or two it would be even better. If you're sure this is the player for you, the real question is when to jump in, enjoy it now quirks and all or wait a bit longer for extra incentives and firmware updates.

They pointed out the BD 1.1 issue and lack of ethernet as the drawbacks.

Jiffylush

06-20-07, 03:54 PM

Since I am posting stuff from hometheaterblog.com how about their take on the blockbuster situation?

A Blockbuster for Blu-ray
By now most of you have heard about Blockbuster’s decision to roll-out Blu-ray media in an additional 1200 stores across the nation. Without dissecting each individual quote, retort and tidbit of information gleaned from the multiple articles on the subject, I do of course have an opinion on the matter. First; make no mistake this is a big coup for Blu-ray, big not huge however. If this would have come before (months before) the recent price reductions to HD DVD players it may have even been a death blow to the format, (and may still be) but Blockbuster’s own chief operating officer tempers the news with caution.

Nick Shepherd COO of Blockbuster stated: “Initially this decision is based purely on the number of rentals we’ve seen in our 250 test stores”, “It’s really very early in time to start making any decisions about who’s going to win”, “What we’re really looking at is a nano-second in time; lets see what happens over the next twelve to eighteen months” and “we’ve clearly not precluded rolling HD into our stores at a later date”.

So with those statements alone; Mr. Shepherd would appear more cautious than some of the reporting surrounding the decision itself. In an interview with CNBC Warren Lieberfarb former president of Warner Home Video, described it as a non-event and went on to state “this decision reflects Playstation owners who are renters not buyers” and indicated that purchases not rentals are what the studios are interested in. He even went on to state that home media rentals dropped by one billion dollars after the introduction of DVD, something Blockbuster would of course be keenly aware of. So what does Blockbuster's decision really mean?

In a nutshell this is a leg up to the format already out-pacing the format that could have used a leg up, or in other words Toshiba will have to work even harder to negate the negative publicity this news will undoubtedly generate. I’ve read articles that attributed several studio heads as saying this holiday season will be much more important to the outcome of the format war than any other period thus far. One things for sure Toshiba would surely rather go into November/December in those 1200 additional Blockbuster’s with HD DVD than not, this very well could be a defining moment in the format war, time will tell.

The author of that is B. Greenway BTW.

edit: linky - http://www.hometheaterblog.com/hometheater/2007/06/a_blockbuster_f.html

jdg345

06-20-07, 03:54 PM

[QUOTE=Rich Peterson]Why did you put it in the Blockbuster thread?QUOTE]

Because I knew of no other place to put it !!! This seemed appropriate and I could get input back from you guys, hopefully with serious content, not just arguing over a thread title or where something should go. [Jim]

You might get some more input here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10835800#post10835800

The Format Battle General Discussion Thread III ...

Though, considering how many times the war has been over, I don't know what kind of reaction you'll get.

In fact, didn't Sony recently say that the war had just started and was still in its infancy? :confused:

jdg345

06-20-07, 03:57 PM

There is a reason why the thread keeps on changing. Its the fact that a few "vocal" HD-DVD supports whine and bitch about their format dying that the mods will cater to these few vocal posters. It happened the same way with the whole Fett incident; everything was fine until Fett put Matrix a step below some of the Blu-ray movies and all hell broke lose. The insecurity in the HD-DVD supporters is out of control and they will spin anything positive their way.

And they talk about Sony's viral Hydra machine.....

Yet, it has mostly been BDA Supporters in the last day or so that have been complaining -- vocally in this thread -- about the current thread title.

The Title is accurate, 250 Stores will carry both Blu-ray and HD-DVD. 1450 more stores will carry Blu-ray only.

Oh, and like 5000 stores will carry neither. *shrug*

rlsmith

06-20-07, 04:00 PM

I find these posts ironic ... you are essentially complaining that the HD DVD Fanboys are being ridiculous by complaining about the thread title ... yet ... what are you doing in this post? Yup, you got it ... complaining about the thread title ... :rolleyes:

I for one am not saying that anyone is being "ridiculous". I am saying that the new title(s) is/are a very lopsided and unfair representation of a news event.

Reminds me of the classic scene in Citizen Kane where they are reviewing two headlines. One says "Kane Elected", the other says "Fraud at polls".

Jiffylush

06-20-07, 04:00 PM

Yet, it has mostly been BDA Supporters in the last day or so that have been complaining -- vocally in this thread -- about the current thread title.

The Title is accurate, 250 Stores will carry both Blu-ray and HD-DVD. 1450 more stores will carry Blu-ray only.

Oh, and like 5000 stores will carry neither. *shrug*

Actually most complaints were from one HD DVD supporter, Rdjam, since you are worried about accuracy.

R.MnTnA

06-20-07, 04:02 PM

I posted this in the Blu-Ray thread, but I guess I should have posted it here instead.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=864055

rlsmith

06-20-07, 04:03 PM

Yet, it has mostly been BDA Supporters in the last day or so that have been complaining -- vocally in this thread -- about the current thread title.

The Title is accurate, 250 Stores will carry both Blu-ray and HD-DVD. 1450 more stores will carry Blu-ray only.

Oh, and like 5000 stores will carry neither. *shrug*

Yes, I am complaining about the NEW titles that the thread has been given. The original title was accurate, the second one less so, and the third is a misrepresentation of the character and impact of the story.

Rob Tomlin

06-20-07, 04:08 PM

Yes, I am complaining about the NEW titles that the thread has been given. The original title was accurate, the second one less so, and the third is a misrepresentation of the character and impact of the story.

Indeed.

Lee Stewart

06-20-07, 04:14 PM

Since I am posting stuff from hometheaterblog.com how about their take on the blockbuster situation?

The author of that is B. Greenway BTW.

edit: linky - http://www.hometheaterblog.com/hometheater/2007/06/a_blockbuster_f.html

Wonderful - and they didn't get the information correct!

It is not 1200 stores - it is 1450 additional stores.

Jiffylush

06-20-07, 04:17 PM

Wonderful - and they didn't get the information correct!

It is not 1200 stores - it is 1450 additional stores.

It was probably better than 90% of the coverage on the topic, and it wasn't a IN YA FACE HD!!! post. ;)

jdg345

06-20-07, 04:18 PM

I for one am not saying that anyone is being "ridiculous". I am saying that the new title(s) is/are a very lopsided and unfair representation of a news event.

Reminds me of the classic scene in Citizen Kane where they are reviewing two headlines. One says "Kane Elected", the other says "Fraud at polls".

It wasn't you that used the word 'ridiculous', it was the person I originally quoted. ;)

Actually most complaints were from one HD DVD supporter, Rdjam, since you are worried about accuracy.

I'm not about to go back and count, but I'm pretty sure if we add them all up, they're likely fairly even ... and since the title became what it is, the vast majority of complaints have come from the Blu-ray side. At least rdjam finally dropped it ... yet others keep beating the dead horse.

If all that is left to talk about here is the thread title, then this may have very well run it's course and it's time to move on ... *shrug*

Jiffylush

06-20-07, 04:21 PM

It wasn't you that used the word 'ridiculous', it was the person I originally quoted. ;)

I'm not about to go back and count, but I'm pretty sure if we add them all up, they're likely fairly even ... and since the title became what it is, the vast majority of complaints have come from the Blu-ray side. At least rdjam finally dropped it ... yet others keep beating the dead horse.

If all that is left to talk about here is the thread title, then this may have very well run it's course and it's time to move on ... *shrug*

There have been three general thoughts on the issue:

#1 - WOOT!

#2 - Blockbuster is still in business?

#3 - Screw you guys, I am going home. [/cartman voice]

That pretty much sums it up I would say ;)

Lee Stewart

06-20-07, 04:28 PM

It was probably better than 90% of the coverage on the topic, and it wasn't a IN YA FACE HD!!! post. ;)

You mean these guys don't know how to read and understand a Press Release?

Guess not as they did get it wrong.

plazman

06-20-07, 04:31 PM

Didn't the original titles have something like ....BD exclusively backs HD DVD in tgeir B&M stores? If it did, it isn't accurate. I am not sure where the inaccuracy with the current title is?

1. 250 stores will have both

2. A further 1450 will have only BD

3. Others will carry neither.

Blockbuster is preferring BD based on their current customer preference, but they are not exclusive. Not yet. They say they will continue to stock HD DVD in the existin 250 stores - which I believe are their biggest, at least based on what I have seen.

I believe many on the BDA side is spinning this as an exclusive deal, when the COO of Bloclbuster in his interview did not imply that all either based on his tone or content of what he said.

I am glad that AVS does not fall for the misinformation that the BDA is spouting here - take for instance the Target rumor, and BB rumor...all started by BD insiders. I am not aware of HD DVD insiders engaging in such cheap tricks...even the Panny COO got in on the FUD campaign - this is AFTER HD DVD gained momentum between Q1 and Q2 - 60% set top boxes and 40% software sales. How does that imply that the customers have decided. Which other market is decided based on these types of market share. Where else are retailers NOT selling a product with 40% share? By this logic should the PS3 be banned by retailers since it has less than 40% market share?

Do the BDA really think that people are that stupid? Are the BDA supporters themselves that stupid? I know some have nice Home Theatres and all....but still ;)

Jiffylush

06-20-07, 04:38 PM

You mean these guys don't know how to read and understand a Press Release?

Guess not as they did get it wrong.

I am under the impression that the B Greenway from the article is this person http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/search.php?searchid=4936123

so maybe he will weigh in on that (pm sent)

makeusleep

06-20-07, 04:42 PM

krinkle

06-20-07, 04:47 PM

Since we have so many arguments about the title. Why don't we use the title from Yahoo News since that is what your avg. J6P probably sees when checking his/her email. Mods how bout it? :)

Death Knell Sounds for HD DVD Format

This news is "pretty significant," said Forrester analyst James McQuivey. By itself, this development might not be fatal to the HD DVD format, he said. "But it is part of a series of blows that will eventually give Blu-ray the triumph."

McQuivey predicted Blu-ray will be the winner because it offers better technology and more movies. Its advantage in technology stems from the fact that it offers more storage, he said, and the edge in movies is because the format has more Hollywood studios behind it.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nf/20070618/tc_nf/53097

And these stories are everywhere now. There is no way HD-DVD will overcome this kind of publicity in the mainstream media.

Also I am really happy to see that Disney is going to start releasing all their animated classics exlusively on Blu-ray disc.

There is so much detail in the originals that we have never really seen, will be like watching a moving painting.

bboisvert

06-20-07, 04:51 PM

This news is "pretty significant," said Forrester analyst James McQuivey. By itself, this development might not be fatal to the HD DVD format, he said. "But it is part of a series of blows that will eventually give Blu-ray the triumph."

Forrester also predicted that HDTV wouldn't catch on:
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8614014&&#post8614014

They have a great track record. :rolleyes:

makeusleep

06-20-07, 04:53 PM

And these stories are everywhere now. There is no way HD-DVD will overcome this kind of publicity in the mainstream media.

Also I am really happy to see that Disney is going to start releasing all their animated classics exlusively on Blu-ray disc.

There is so much detail in the originals that we have never really seen, like watching a moving painting.

I actually had a thread with this same title trying to discuss what type of effects this will have on HD-DVD considering it was on such a mainstream website like Yahoo News. The Mod told me he was getting to many complaints about it and he considered leaving it for the reasons posted above, but he said it would be best if I just posted it in this thread. How do you think HD-DVD will overcome headlines like this in the mainstream media?

plasmalover

06-20-07, 04:53 PM

makeusleep

06-20-07, 04:55 PM

tomes

06-20-07, 04:56 PM

I am glad that AVS does not fall for the misinformation that the BDA is spouting here - take for instance the Target rumor, and BB rumor...all started by BD insiders. I am not aware of HD DVD insiders engaging in such cheap tricks...even the Panny COO got in on the FUD campaign - this is AFTER HD DVD gained momentum between Q1 and Q2 - 60% set top boxes and 40% software sales. How does that imply that the customers have decided. Which other market is decided based on these types of market share. Where else are retailers NOT selling a product with 40% share? By this logic should the PS3 be banned by retailers since it has less than 40% market share?

Do the BDA really think that people are that stupid? Are the BDA supporters themselves that stupid? I know some have nice Home Theatres and all....but still ;)

Unless you are a bit paranoid, I hope you don't blame the BDA for the BB/Target rumors. The hddvd camp has been riding high on the walmart rumor as well (granted that was started by the chinese company that is hoping to make the players, I think).

It's been explained before, but Blockbuster has limited shelf space. For a segment that perhaps cover 1% of their rentals, they can't stock up two different formats everywhere. Even one hd format is costly at this point. BluRay had more simultaneous releases of new dvds/blurays than the hddvd camp did (due to lack of studio support) over the last few months. Hddvd has many great titles, but they are catalog, and that does not move well in a b&m store.

Comparing stocking ps3 when they have less than 40% marketshare with hddvd that is in the same situation doesn't make much sense. These are entirely different products with different logistics. The retailers are different from space-constrained rental shops, etc. PS3 vs Xbox360 vs Wii is also a different ballgame. They have definite qualifications that make them unique and sellable (is that a word? :) to different demographics. To J6P - there should really be only one movie format.

Even one hd format will need to fight to stay alive against proven old dvd...

(could you imagine how it would be if the only theatre chain allowed to show Spiderman 3 would be AMC? It would be really confusing.....)

desmond212

06-20-07, 04:57 PM

apparently zdnet agrees:

http://blogs.zdnet.com/storage/?p=149

jmpage2

06-20-07, 04:57 PM

And these stories are everywhere now. There is no way HD-DVD will overcome this kind of publicity in the mainstream media.

Also I am really happy to see that Disney is going to start releasing all their animated classics exlusively on Blu-ray disc.

There is so much detail in the originals that we have never really seen, will be like watching a moving painting.

I think a more accurate statement would be that everyone who is not an AVS addict has forgotten the story by now, but they might be nudged by it again when the blu boxes show up at the local Blockbuster store.

plasmalover

06-20-07, 05:02 PM

I actually had a thread with this same title trying to discuss what type of effects this will have on HD-DVD considering it was on such a mainstream website like Yahoo News. The Mod told me he was getting to many complaints about it and he considered leaving it for the reasons posted above, but he said it would be best if I just posted it in this thread. How do you think HD-DVD will overcome headlines like this in the mainstream media?

I don't think companies can overcome stories like this, they just have to keep trooping on and have confidence in their products and hope eventually the product will win over. It's the same thing with the PS3 vs 360. There is an overwhelming majority of negative news stories about the PS3 compared to the 360.

For example:

low sales
being too expensive
not enough games

when in fact most of the opposite is true. Sales are better than the PS2 did during launch, its is expensive but people are still buying and games will be coming. If the PS3 has similar hardware failures as the 360, the PS3 would be long dead when the media gets done with it.

JackBee

06-20-07, 05:07 PM

apparently zdnet agrees:

http://blogs.zdnet.com/storage/?p=149

Article is full of facts and great knowledge for the common people out there. Good job ZDNet!

todrigo

06-20-07, 05:10 PM

makeusleep

06-20-07, 05:11 PM

I think a more accurate statement would be that everyone who is not an AVS addict has forgotten the story by now, but they might be nudged by it again when the blu boxes show up at the local Blockbuster store.

I don't know about that one. I was in Target today looking at the Blu-Ray section and some guy next to me was looking at the HD-DVDs. All of sudden I hear some voice say to the guy looking at the HD-DVDs..."Hey man didn't ya hear..The War is over! Blockbuster is only going to rent Blu-Rays.. Don't waste ya money on dem HD-DVDs.. I look over and its some guy with a wife beater shirt on and a hat that says "My Name is Earl" I was laughing so hard I had tears coming from my eyes. For realz tru story.. :)

desmond212

06-20-07, 05:13 PM

Article is full of facts and great knowledge for the common people out there. Good job ZDNet!

amazing how much pro br buzz blockbuster announcement has created. finally starting to get message through to j6p's.

WayneL

06-20-07, 05:18 PM

jmpage2

06-20-07, 05:28 PM

Article is full of facts and great knowledge for the common people out there. Good job ZDNet!

That was an opinion piece. Something I would expect an "expert" such as yourself to immediately recognize.

Lee Stewart

06-20-07, 05:35 PM

HD-DVD was only as good as 40% in two weeks so far this year according to nielsens and is at 33% YTD which is 17.5% less than 40%. And the 60% set top market refers to since inception.

33 and 17.5 = 40

?

Lee Stewart

06-20-07, 05:35 PM

From Wiki on the word Publicity:

Effectiveness of publicity

The theory any press is good press has been coined to describe situations where bad behaviour by people involved with an organization or brand has actually resulted in positive results, due to the fame and press coverage accrued by such events.

A good example would be Paris Hilton's many antics, from lurid sex tapes to clumsy behaviour on TV shows actually increasing business at the family's chain of Hilton Hotels.

Another example would be the Australian Tourism Board's "So where the Bloody Hell are you?" Advertising Campaign that was initially banned in the UK, but the amount of publicity this generated resulted in the official website for the campaign being swamped with requests to see the banned ad. [1]

The popular sitcom, Married... with Children, achieved skyrocketing ratings after moralist Terry Rakolta attempted to have it removed from the air. It's reported that the former producers send her a fruit basket every Christmas as a gesture of gratitude....

Retrieved from "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Publicity"

Frank Derks

06-20-07, 05:36 PM

It is starting to smell like another BDA pr offensive.

In a very short timespan:
'Cheap' sony player is released.
BloBust announcement on a Sunday.
BR+ 'available.
Panasonic spokesmen declares a winner.

Start the countdown for the next 'big' announcement.

ADGrant

06-20-07, 05:36 PM

No sweat, he's obviously a late adopter and won't buy HDM for five years at least. His first HDM will probably be a hand-me-down from his kid.

And yet he already "knows" that HD-DVD is a dead format and he is telling people not to buy it. That would suggest that in the world outside AVS, the belief that HD-DVD is dead has taken hold which might make those $250 players a hard sell. Once people beleive a format is dead, it is. Similar to when people believed a Bank was about to go under, they would take out their money and the bank would go under (which is why we now have the FDIC).

WayneL

06-20-07, 05:39 PM

That was an opinion piece. Something I would expect an "expert" such as yourself to immediately recognize.
We should see the end of the knee-jerk commentary soon. It's already off the real-time news agenda. The weekly journals will have it next week and the monthlies might carry it in a watered down form in two months. By then, we may see a strong surge in HD-DVD disk sales thanks to the Tosh discount, and it will be snickered at.

briankmonkey

06-20-07, 05:41 PM

Article is full of facts and great knowledge for the common people out there. Good job ZDNet!

yup

Ghost of Betamax laid to rest
Sony has played this game well. They own a movie studio, and got all but one of the major studios to release on Blu-ray. They put a Blu-ray player in every PS3. And they benefit by the rapid growth of HDTV sales.

Despite the disappointing sales of the PS3, the fact that it includes a Blu-ray player also tilted the playing field. A leading indicator: Toshiba recently reduced its US sales goal for HD DVD players by 40%. The rapid uptake of HDTV in the US completes the content-player-display triumvirate.

The biggest winners though, are us, the consumers :D

RUR

06-20-07, 05:48 PM

33 and 17.5 = 40

?
33/40=82.5% i.e. 33 is 17.5% (100-82.5) less than 40

markrubin

06-20-07, 05:55 PM

Thread title

may we ask that you stop posting about the thread title

Instead, PM me with some suggestions and I will have a try at a better one: my sense is a simple title such as: Blockbuster Blu-ray Announcement Master Thread

please don't post...PM me with suggestions or comments

btw: please keep on topic: this thread is getting out of control

Thanks :)

Lee Stewart

06-20-07, 05:56 PM

Let's really evaluate the BB situation.

Before Netflix BB had a HUGE part of the market - almost 90% - all walkin in.

End of 2006 - NF does $1 billion in sales and BB stays abreast of them.

But BB lost almost 14 precent of it's revenue to a cheap, no leases on stores, mail order company.

And it was forced to copy the mail order business model which is NOWHERES near as profitable as renting a single movie for X dollars - and posible late charges.

That amout was another 1 billion that got converted into monthly fees because of NF

If this keeps up - who do YOU think will win. The company with the warehouses only? Or the company with the 5000 store leases?

Lee Stewart

06-20-07, 05:57 PM

33/40=82.5% i.e. 33 is 17.5% (100-82.5) less than 40

Ah - OK - got it

WayneL

06-20-07, 06:00 PM

And yet he already "knows" that HD-DVD is a dead format and he is telling people not to buy it. That would suggest that in the world outside AVS, the belief that HD-DVD is dead has taken hold which might make those $250 players a hard sell. Once people beleive a format is dead, it is. Similar to when people believed a Bank was about to go under, they would take out their money and the bank would go under (which is why we now have the FDIC).
BDA has been repeating this lie since the beginning of the year, and I suspect they made a deal with BB to help them with it. By the time this guy gets around to buying, it (BB) won't matter anymore, and the then current facts will prevail.

I'm not going to sit here and let the BD fans propagate otherwise. BB was, is and will not be a significant factor in the success of either format, and should not drive your choice, unless you are easily influenced. Price, quality, availability, support, and features should be the deciding factors, not if some BB B&M rental stores carry it or not, which most of us have never been in.

Chris Gerhard

06-20-07, 06:14 PM

NOTHING HAS BEEN DECIDED YET. HD DVD will be fine, with the recent surge of player sales all these new customers will now be looking for software to buy. This will bring an increase in sales to all those who make, sell or rent HD DVD"s which of course will add to their bottom line whatever that may be. This was a bad move on BB's part because they more or less just said they don't care about these consumers and many of them will go elsewhere. The ones who are laughing now are BB's competitors who I'm sure will gladly take the added business at their expense. It was way too early to make a decision like this and they may end up suffering in the end because of it. We shall see!

I am strongly recommending all Netflix Blu-ray renters move to Blockbuster or you could be right, it could help Netflix and hurt Blockbuster. If the Blu-ray renters support Blockbuster, the move to Blu-ray will be a success. I continue to rent a few HD DVD titles from Blockbuster, but for the most part, I am going to rent Blu-ray from Blockbuster only. I want the idiocy of having two formats to end, and moves like this one by Blockbuster are the only steps that can be taken to accomplish that. It isn't much by itself, but it is something and a couple more similar announcements would be huge. Right now, the profits from Blu-ray rentals and HD DVD rentals can't amount to enough to cover the Blockbuster and Netflix coporate office coffee costs.

Chris

Roy

06-20-07, 06:18 PM

One more point, currently most movies only release on one format, why BB bouycott some HD movies?

Supermans

06-20-07, 06:18 PM

I don't know about that one. I was in Target today looking at the Blu-Ray section and some guy next to me was looking at the HD-DVDs. All of sudden I hear some voice say to the guy looking at the HD-DVDs..."Hey man didn't ya hear..The War is over! Blockbuster is only going to rent Blu-Rays.. Don't waste ya money on dem HD-DVDs.. I look over and its some guy with a wife beater shirt on and a hat that says "My Name is Earl" I was laughing so hard I had tears coming from my eyes. For realz tru story.. :)

I was at Best Buy today and let someone know who asked me what was going on with the whole format war. He was ready to buy an HD-A2 and a Samsung LCD when I pointed out the special promotion Sony had with the free Ps3 deal. He ended up buying the Sony Bravia 40 inch 1080p Sony LCD and got the free PS3 with 2 games and 3 blu-ray movies for $2,000. I don't think you can beat that deal from Best Buy with anything right now...

oscar_in_fw

06-20-07, 06:36 PM

I don't know about that one. I was in Target today looking at the Blu-Ray section and some guy next to me was looking at the HD-DVDs. All of sudden I hear some voice say to the guy looking at the HD-DVDs..."Hey man didn't ya hear..The War is over! Blockbuster is only going to rent Blu-Rays.. Don't waste ya money on dem HD-DVDs.. I look over and its some guy with a wife beater shirt on and a hat that says "My Name is Earl" I was laughing so hard I had tears coming from my eyes. For realz tru story.. :)

The Blockbuster decision seems to have had a disproportionately large deleterious effect on HD DVD public perception, especially compared with the relatively (microscopically?) small rental volume HD DVD/Blu-Ray produces. Will this bad news stick or will HD-DVD recover from this seemingly devastating blow to it's public image ?

Works for me if it causes HD-DVD to die off sooner than it otherwise would have. Even when/if HD DVD disappears, Blu-Ray will still have an uphill battle against SD DVD.

WayneL

06-20-07, 06:41 PM

I believe you gave good advice. Good quality, good price, and he wanted games. OTOH, you can still pick up a HD-D2 for $243.87 at our local Sam's Club.

edit: and get 5 free titles

jebel

06-20-07, 07:03 PM

Irregardless of just how big Blockbuster is/was, and how much true affect its sales has and/or should have on the format war, the public perception really is a tipping point here. My boss (my company's Directory of Technology), who discusses the audio-visual world with me frequently, said yesterday "So, I guess the format war's pretty much over, eh?" You're hearing this sort of thing in stores, at the workplace, everywhere.

jdg345

06-20-07, 07:14 PM

And these stories are everywhere now. There is no way HD-DVD will overcome this kind of publicity in the mainstream media.

Really? PS3, and Sony have managed to do quite well considering all of their bad press. Rootkit, anyone?

Also I am really happy to see that Disney is going to start releasing all their animated classics exlusively on Blu-ray disc.

Link?

sivartk

06-20-07, 07:15 PM

Irregardless of just how big Blockbuster is/was...

I have to laugh every time I see this "word." I laughed even harder when I typed "define: irregardless" into Google and it gave back the following:

an erroneous redundancy for regardless

I also don't see how Sony = quality anymore. In the past with tube TV's yes, now no. $2K for a TV and game player (and at Best Buy), I'll pass.

Good for that person for changing one person's mind...keep it up. Did you mention to them that they won't be able to program that PS3 into a universal remote? No, too bad. I didn't buy a PS3 for that reason alone....now I'll wait for a sub-$200 Sammy or Panny to come out before I jump into the sea of "Blu"

jdg345

06-20-07, 07:16 PM

Forrester also predicted that HDTV wouldn't catch on:
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8614014&&#post8614014

They have a great track record. :rolleyes:

You know ... I was just thinking, "How odd that they're quoting analysts ..."

Why? Because they are usually the first to say that analysyts don't know anything about how much the PS3's are costing Sony and what their financial outlooks, etc are. I guess analysts are suddenly super-smart when they say anything Pro-Blu-ray. :p

jdg345

06-20-07, 07:23 PM

I don't know about that one. I was in Target today looking at the Blu-Ray section and some guy next to me was looking at the HD-DVDs. All of sudden I hear some voice say to the guy looking at the HD-DVDs..."Hey man didn't ya hear..The War is over! Blockbuster is only going to rent Blu-Rays.. Don't waste ya money on dem HD-DVDs.. I look over and its some guy with a wife beater shirt on and a hat that says "My Name is Earl" I was laughing so hard I had tears coming from my eyes. For realz tru story.. :)

It scares me, frankly, that people would actually talk like that.

You're just going to walk up to a total stranger and say, "Hey, the war is over?" I mean, it sounds like a nice story ... but I somehow don't think it's anything more than that.

plasmalover

06-20-07, 07:27 PM

I have to laugh every time I see this "word." I laughed even harder when I typed "define: irregardless" into Google and it gave back the following:

I also don't see how Sony = quality anymore. In the past with tube TV's yes, now no. $2K for a TV and game player (and at Best Buy), I'll pass.

Good for that person for changing one person's mind...keep it up. Did you mention to them that they won't be able to program that PS3 into a universal remote? No, too bad. I didn't buy a PS3 for that reason alone....now I'll wait for a sub-$200 Sammy or Panny to come out before I jump into the sea of "Blu"

Really, maybe YOU don't equate Sony = Quality, but there are a lot of consumers out there who do. What do you think is the top selling flat panel maker last year? That's right Sony. And what about their Cybershot cameras? Solidly second place to probably Canon, which is the king of digital cameras. Everyone single one of my friends has purchased a Sony TV, that's 3 rear Projection LCD and 4 LCD panels. Apparently, they believe in the Sony quality.

BTW, my PS3 has been solid for 4 months straight and it gets better with each update. Can't say the same about my friends' 360s.

WayneL

06-20-07, 07:29 PM

Lee Stewart

06-20-07, 07:32 PM

Really, maybe YOU don't equate Sony = Quality, but there are a lot of consumers out there who do. What do you think is the top selling flat panel maker last year? That's right Sony. And what about their Cybershot cameras? Solidly second place to probably Canon, which is the king of digital cameras. Everyone single one of my friends has purchased a Sony TV, that's 3 rear Projection LCD and 4 LCD panels. Apparently, they believe in the Sony quality.

BTW, my PS3 has been solid for 4 months straight and it gets better with each update. Can't say the same about my friends' 360s.

Doesn't look like they can make THAT claim anymore

http://www.twice.com/article/CA6452180.html

K.L.

06-20-07, 07:43 PM

Doesn't look like they can make THAT claim anymore

http://www.twice.com/article/CA6452180.htmlThat's shipment in Q1 of this year and most likely plasmalover is talking about the ranking for the sales based on how much money was actually spent for the purchase of TVs from each manufacturer in the last year.

zBuff

06-20-07, 07:46 PM

Doesn't look like they can make THAT claim anymore

http://www.twice.com/article/CA6452180.html

Sure they can, unless Samsung has invented a time machine.

Lee Stewart

06-20-07, 08:00 PM

That's shipment in Q1 of this year and most likely plasmalover is talking about the ranking for the sales based on how much money was actually spent for the purchase of TVs from each manufacturer in the last year.

No Sony was the #1 FDP maker last year (12 months total sales) - number of units sold. It now belongs to Samsung - the #1 ranking

There are two charts:

North American Sales
Worldwide Sale

They compare Q4 of 2006 and Q1 of 2007

Lee Stewart

06-20-07, 08:06 PM

Sure they can, unless Samsung has invented a time machine.

Yes or no . . .

Worldwide - did Samsung outsell Sony both in the last quarter of 2006 (Xmas time) and the 1st quarter of 2007?

The chart says yes

What do you say?

Rob Tomlin

06-20-07, 08:33 PM

Yes or no . . .

Worldwide - did Samsung outsell Sony both in the last quarter of 2006 (Xmas time) and the 1st quarter of 2007?

The chart says yes

What do you say?

WTH does any of this have to do with the Blockbuster announcement regarding the rental of Blu-ray discs? :confused:

Lee Stewart

06-20-07, 08:36 PM

WTH does any of this have to do with the Blockbuster announcement regarding the rental of Blu-ray discs? :confused:

A statement was made in a previous post. A pro Sony statement. I was showing proof that, that was then . . . . this is now

You know . . like the $50 Billion Toshiba Nuclear Power Plant deal with China

Rob Tomlin

06-20-07, 08:41 PM

A statement was made in a previous post. A pro Sony statement. I was showing proof that, that was then . . . . this is now

You know . . like the $50 Billion Toshiba Nuclear Power Plant deal with China

I see. So since it was a PRO Sony statement that had nothing to do with the thread at hand, you, being a Sony hater, simply HAD to respond to the non-relevant post...repeatedly. At least you are not part of the problem.

Can we get back to the subject of the thread now?

sivartk

06-20-07, 08:45 PM

Can we get back to the subject of the thread now?

No, the longer it is off topic, the sooner it will be locked...old news anyway, pretty boring.

I checked eBay and there has been no influx of HD DVD's this week, so I guess not everyone is dumping the dead format yet. :p

Lee Stewart

06-20-07, 08:47 PM

I see. So since it was a PRO Sony statement that had nothing to do with the thread at hand, you, being a Sony hater, simply HAD to respond to the non-relevant post...repeatedly. At least you are not part of the problem.

Can we get back to the subject of the thread now?

Sure . . . just as soon as we clarify one point;

I am NOT a Sony hater. I have 3 of their Receivers - 2 DD 5.1's (bedrooms) and a 7.1 for my HT

jdg345

06-20-07, 08:48 PM

Yah, I think this thread pretty much died 8 hours ago when the prime subject of 'conversation' was whether or not the thread title was fair. :p

stevenmh

06-20-07, 08:58 PM

You're hearing this sort of thing in stores, at the workplace, everywhere.

Riiiggghhht. That's all I've heard at the watercooler this week... "blah blah Blu... blah blah Blu..." Nobody here at my house can think of anything else.

I think this thread has run its course. Everything that can possibly be said has been said. It's just getting silly now.

darinp2

06-20-07, 09:07 PM

Has anyone figured out that on the ground end of Q2 BDA is in worse shape than end of Q1.I'm having a hard time believing that you even think that is true.
I would love for someone to show me a metric that says BDA gained momentum over HD DVD in Q2.I don't have a metric, but I think a person just have to have their eyes open to see that HD DVD is in worse shape now than the end of Q1. In that timeframe almost half the stores I checkout have gone from about even amounts of space for BDs and HD DVDs to more space for BDs and others are reporting similar things. This Blockbuster news was in Q2 and definitely not a good thing for HD DVD. Likely to make it even tougher to get Disney to go neutral.
HD DVD increased their market share for both software and hardware.It seems like you are conveniently changing between SI and YTD depending on the claim without saying that is what you are doing, but I'm not sure. Where did you get that they increased their market share. According to Neilsen numbers the SI was 56.2 to 43.6 at the end of Q1. The latest figure was 59 to 41. An increase of market share for SI for Blu-ray. And there was a report today that consumers have purchased $35 million worth of Blu-ray discs and $19 million worth of HD DVD discs (here http://www.tvpredictions.com/bluray062007.htm ). If you want to use YTD, then please quit claiming that HD DVD has 40%.

BTW: I notice that you mixed "in worse shape" and "momentum". The BDA didn't have to increase their momentum compared to HD DVD from Q1 to Q2 to be in better shape, since the same momentum would leave them in better shape. If they maintain their relative momentum from the first 5+ months of this year then I don't see anyway that HD DVD can win. They have to not only decrease that momentum advantage, but turn it their way. Much like a car coming from behind that is going 10 MPH faster as it passes the other car doesn't have to increase that relative momentum to win the race easily.

--Darin

jdg345

06-20-07, 09:11 PM

Riiiggghhht. That's all I've heard at the watercooler this week... "blah blah Blu... blah blah Blu..." Nobody here at my house can think of anything else.

I think this thread has run its course. Everything that can possibly be said has been said. It's just getting silly now.

I was on the freeway today, and I was trying to merge to the right to get on an exit ramp ... and it just so happens that there's a Blockbuster on that Exit. Anyways, this guy with a beer belly in a pickup truck starts honking his horn at me ... blasting it really, and finally let's me in to merge. Well, he pulls up to me at light at the end of the exit ramp and starts blowing his horn again and motioning me to lower my window, so I do. Then the dude screams at me and says, "Hey man, I hope you're not going to go to the Blockbuster at this exit to rent HD DVD's cause the war is over man, they're not renting them anymore at all. They are Blu-ray only Man! Yeeehaw!!"

Then he throws this Best Buy flyer at me and tells me to go there to get a PS3 for free, all I have to do is buy a $2000 40" LCD. The next thing I know, he's finishing off a can of Budweiser, throws it out the window and into the bed of his truck with a flick of his wrist, and speeds off blasting Country Music.

True Story, really ... I still can't believe it happened to me.

Lee Stewart

06-20-07, 09:21 PM

Darin:

You talked about the $55 million spent so far by consumers on HD movies.

With over 500 HD movies already released . . . .

2 make up 11% of that $55 million . . . Planet Earth and The Departed ($6 million total for both)

http://www.tvpredictions.com/earth060707.htm

The division of dollars is in BD 's favor no question. It is the dollars themselves that are in question - not the amount, but the lack of dollars.

Too bad we never see published numbers for rental. It would be interesting to see ALL the dollars that consumers have spent on HD movies and what the "split" would look like with the rental revenue added.

shendley

06-20-07, 09:22 PM

Well this could be turned around just as easily. What if someone like Spielberg or Eastwood says he thinks film would do better by HD-DVD because they do more catalog? Just an example - all kinds of possibilities.

This is the most sensible post I've read on this topic in a while. It makes sense that people would think HDDVD is dead because they just heard it on the news. But have you noticed how long the attention span of the American population is; how long they pay attention to and follow stories that actually matter to their lives (star scandals aside - everyone loves to follow star scandals)? If the HDDVD crowd plays their cards right, nothing's decided now. And my suspicion is that absolutely nothing will be decided in this "war" until the high def format for DVDs becomes something more than a niche market. Right now nobody's selling enough of either format to call either side down for the count.

whippersnapper

06-20-07, 09:43 PM

I was on the freeway today, and I was trying to merge to the right to get on an exit ramp ... and it just so happens that there's a Blockbuster on that Exit. Anyways, this guy with a beer belly in a pickup truck starts honking his horn at me ... blasting it really, and finally let's me in to merge. Well, he pulls up to me at light at the end of the exit ramp and starts blowing his horn again and motioning me to lower my window, so I do. Then the dude screams at me and says, "Hey man, I hope you're not going to go to the Blockbuster at this exit to rent HD DVD's cause the war is over man, they're not renting them anymore at all. They are Blu-ray only Man! Yeeehaw!!"

Then he throws this Best Buy flyer at me and tells me to go there to get a PS3 for free, all I have to do is buy a $2000 40" LCD. The next thing I know, he's finishing off a can of Budweiser, throws it out the window and into the bed of his truck with a flick of his wrist, and speeds off blasting Country Music.

True Story, really ... I still can't believe it happened to me.
Yeah, it's certainly hard for me to believe also. Now if he was driving a Lexus, maybe. :)

jdg345

06-20-07, 09:46 PM

Yeah, it's certainly hard for me to believe also. Now if he was driving a Lexus, maybe. :)

:lol: ... maybe it was a Lexus Pickup Truck ... I'm guessing he heard the news on his CB Radio ... ;)

builty

06-20-07, 10:20 PM

I'm having a hard time believing that you even think that is true.
I don't have a metric, but I think a person just have to have their eyes open to see that HD DVD is in worse shape now than the end of Q1. In that timeframe almost half the stores I checkout have gone from about even amounts of space for BDs and HD DVDs to more space for BDs and others are reporting similar things. This Blockbuster news was in Q2 and definitely not a good thing for HD DVD. Likely to make it even tougher to get Disney to go neutral.
It seems like you are conveniently changing between SI and YTD depending on the claim without saying that is what you are doing, but I'm not sure. Where did you get that they increased their market share. According to Neilsen numbers the SI was 56.2 to 43.6 at the end of Q1. The latest figure was 59 to 41. An increase of market share for SI for Blu-ray. And there was a report today that consumers have purchased $35 million worth of Blu-ray discs and $19 million worth of HD DVD discs (here http://www.tvpredictions.com/bluray062007.htm ). If you want to use YTD, then please quit claiming that HD DVD has 40%.

BTW: I notice that you mixed "in worse shape" and "momentum". The BDA didn't have to increase their momentum compared to HD DVD from Q1 to Q2 to be in better shape, since the same momentum would leave them in better shape. If they maintain their relative momentum from the first 5+ months of this year then I don't see anyway that HD DVD can win. They have to not only decrease that momentum advantage, but turn it their way. Much like a car coming from behind that is going 10 MPH faster as it passes the other car doesn't have to increase that relative momentum to win the race easily.

--Darin

Excellent post Darin, its great to see someone using facts to bust the all to common AVS FUD.

bigmf99

06-20-07, 11:04 PM

No, the longer it is off topic, the sooner it will be locked...old news anyway, pretty boring.

I checked eBay and there has been no influx of HD DVD's this week, so I guess not everyone is dumping the dead format yet. :p

Here is a major problem with discussion on the internet these days. If the thread is not to one side's liking they attempt to have it locked rahter than discussing the matter rationally. :(

plazman

06-20-07, 11:46 PM

OK let us examine the facts closely before we get too excited:

1. Q1 started with CES, right after CES we had BD announcing their first victory and by the end of Q1 we had weekly sales ratios routinely between 2:1 and 4:1.

2. Along comes Q2 and the software sales ratio on a weekly basis is between 1:5:1 to 2:1. So, between Q1 and Q2 HD DVD definitely improved their performance.

3. As for YTD and SI, I did not confuse either. What I was referring to was that the trend of late has ben showing HD DVD having a software sales ratio in the 40% or so ratio.

4. The last report I saw in Q1 had HD DVD and BD with a 52% to 48% set top player ratio. Q2, Tosh is reporting HD DVD has increased it to 60%.

5. As far as product placement, Circuit City did much more in terms of HD DVD hardware plcement and sales than they did in Q1, when Tosh players were MIA at CC. Now, I am not sure which stores Darin visits, but in the DC area, NYC area and the Bay area where I visit most often, HD DVD product placement has gotten better in general, not worse...

6. The Blockbuster anouncement as far as I can tell is the only real positive for BD between Q1 and Q2.

I know Darin is a smart guy (or he thinks he is), but he has this knack of conveniently twisitng what others have said and package it as something else....I am not sure why, but that appears to be his style. I most definitely DID NOT confuse SI with YTD. My observation was that HD DVD was holding onto a healthy 40% software market share, even if were to fall to 35% or so, it would still be a sizeable market to cater to if HD market grew as a whole. There is NO doubt that BD is NOT decimating HD DVD and the trend of improving market share we saw at the end of Q1 has been effectively reversed. I'd bet in $ terms there is not a whole lot that seperates the two sides in terms of software sales. This is not spin. Just a fact. You can accept it or not, but don't try to BS others....JMHO.

BD's best moments so far was the end of Q1 NOT Q2. The whole Blockbuster announcement is being used to justify the enormous progress that BD has made....when really in the last 3 months there was no progress. Fox stopped releasing, Disney slowed down and HD DVD picked up market share.

deepthinker

06-20-07, 11:52 PM

Don't kid yourself, Blockbuster tracks their online customers habits as well. I got throttled without lube by them before I switched to Netflix. I knew about the Netflix lawsuit/rumors, but so far, I haven't had any issues after about 6 months and I'm a high volume user.

I'm not kidding myself, I know BB throttles HEAVY renters as well. My point is that if there is a "long wait", because I am being throttled, then I can just hit the store and grab the copy instead. That's not an option with Netflix. You just have to suck it up and wait.

B Leisle

06-21-07, 12:01 AM

Supermans

06-21-07, 12:04 AM

I'm not kidding myself, I know BB throttles HEAVY renters as well. My point is that if there is a "long wait", because I am being throttled, then I can just hit the store and grab the copy instead. That's not an option with Netflix. You just have to suck it up and wait.

Once Blockbusters stock in Blu-Ray's grow, the better chance you will have of finding the title you want to see on the shelf any given day. So the longer BB remains exclusive to Blu-Ray, the more people they will get to switch from Netflix who are Blu-Ray owners. I walked into a Hollywood Video and they too will be getting Blu-Ray pretty soon.. I asked what about HD-DVD and the manager said "No way, not after Blockbusters announcement".. Other stores are taking notice of this and are making changes to their plans already as to what they will do about carrying both items or choosing one.. Believe me, all the rest of the rental community will follow the leader so to speak on this one...

todrigo

06-21-07, 12:12 AM

33 and 17.5 = 40

?

33%/40% = .825 or 82.5% of 40

100%-82.5%=17.5%

Therefore the difference in between 33% and 40% is 17.5%

Got Math?

EDIT: Posted before I saw that RUR used logic to solve this equation too ;)

Lodef

06-21-07, 12:21 AM

Supermans

06-21-07, 12:34 AM

FUD ALERT ! FUD ALERT!

So you went to all these stores and they all said the same thing. Simply Amazing. Excuse me but my stomach hurts from laughing so hard.

No, I went to one Hollywood Video if you re-read my post. And I spoke to the manager for about half an hour. He said "No way" when I asked him about HD-DVD and when I asked why he mentioned Blockbuster's decision... How can this be FUD??? I can give you the number of the store so you can speak to the manager himself if you wish, however what's the point...

Lodef

06-21-07, 12:55 AM

darinp2

06-21-07, 01:01 AM

3. As for YTD and SI, I did not confuse either. What I was referring to was that the trend of late has ben showing HD DVD having a software sales ratio in the 40% or so ratio.

4. The last report I was in Q1 had HD DVD and BD with a 52% to 48% set top player ratio. Q2, Tosh is reporting HD DVD has increased it to 60%.
...
I know Darin is a smart guy (or he thinks he is), but he has this knack of conveniently twisitng what others have said and package it as something else....I am not sure why, but that appears to be his style. I most definitely DID NOT confuse SI with YTD.I want to address this one thing since you make this claim. Here is a post you made:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10837471&&#post10837471BD loses momentum between Q1 and Q2. HD DVD picks up 40% of software sales and 60% of HD set top boxes....and the COO of Panasonic says he is being politically incorrect! I am afraid he knows he is lieing through his teeth :)and another:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10837366#post10837366
It's funny the COO of Panasonic would say that given that HD DVD has 60% of the set top market and 40% of the software sales market.
Now obviously the 60% for HD set top boxes was SI. Are we in agreement there or are you claiming the 60% was for some other shorter time period? In the same sentence you claimed 40% of software sales both times. So, was that SI or were you using 2 different time periods in the same sentence, while it looked like the same time period was used? Was your 40% there your "trend of late"? If so, was the 60% also the "trend of late" or a different time period? You might not have mixed up SI and YTD, but it looks like you used different periods if your 40% was really for the recent trend like you said.

You and I both know that it would be very disingenous of you to use the term "hardware" and then count nothing for PS3s sold. So, are you conveniently talking about just set top boxes when you make claims like that, or are you looking at all relevant hardware?

I don't consider a quarter where, among other things:

- Blu-ray has outsold HD DVD likely around 1.8:1 for software
- Toshiba changed their claim of about 1.8 million players this year to something like a million players this year (which from looking at the original claim and what the HD DVD group has said looks like it isn't that plus Chinese players to me)
- HD DVD doesn't seem to have made much headway in Europe and PAL regions where it looks like disc sales have skewed way toward Blu-ray since the PS3 launched there
- Blockbuster chose to move forward to almost 6x the number of new locations as test locations without HD DVD, but with Blu-ray
- Where what has been reported to be the most expensive comedy ever made (Evan Almighty) and a big hope for Universal is doing poorly with critics (17% thumbs up currently on rottentomatoes.com) while a Disney (through Pixar) movie (Ratatouille) is averaging some of the best reviews Pixar has had in a while (100% thumbs up and 8.5 average so far) and 2 titles from the competition have done over $800 million worldwide each and are that much closer to likely day-and-date releases.
- Where, while not a big studio, Anchor Bay/Starz announced exclusivity on Blu-ray.
- (EDIT as I remembered one I had forgotten). Where seemingly the most beloved studio by HD DVD supporters started getting questioned about the quality of their latest releases much like Sony got questioned early on about the quality of The Fifth Element, a little after some top notch releases on Blu-ray, and the notion that HD DVD meant better image quality started getting questioned by more and more enthusiasts (and I'm guessing some started wondering about the value of older Universal catalog releases).

to be one where HD DVD will be coming out of the quarter better off than they went into it, unless something changes in the next 2 weeks.

One good thing for HD DVD was that they were able to get a big box set (The Matrix) early, but that is one of the things they needed to keep the sales ratio from being even higher for Blu-ray. And Blu-ray is that much closer to their HD PiP that would allow simultaneous releases of neutral titles like that.

Using a sports analogy, if one basketball team made a run at the end of the first quarter to go up by 10 points and by the end of the next quarter were up by 16 points, would you say that the team behind was better off at the end of the next quarter, all else being equal?

--Darin

veniex

06-21-07, 01:46 AM

Enough said, Darin. :)

Dave Mack

06-21-07, 02:04 AM

Wow, thread is now 64 pages long.
I thought this wasn't really news...?

;)

Supermans

06-21-07, 04:51 AM

Wow, thread is now 64 pages long.
I thought this wasn't really news...?

;)

All this will become a bigger deal if my Domino prediciton starts to come true.... Target next week and then some other major company sometime later... I'm just hoping HD-DVD starts bringing out their BIG-GUN titles from Universal to counter this Blu-Ray momentum.. Bring out E.T and Jurrasic Park as well as Jaws.. Then once HD-DVD goes under, I can get all those HD-DVD's for real cheap since I am keeping my HD-A2...Even though I want to see a victor in this war, I'm seriously hoping to get some Universal specials before the format war is over...

Chris Gerhard

06-21-07, 06:36 AM

And you also said this :

Other stores are taking notice of this and are making changes to their plans already as to what they will do about carrying both items or choosing one.. Believe me, all the rest of the rental community will follow the leader so to speak on this one..

Care to tell us what the other stores are or was this just conjecture on your part. I'll stand by my statement.

I will repeat, other stores are taking notice of the Blockbuster announcement. Will they do the same? I don't know, but I can guarantee they have noticed. Some things just require common sense, not absolute proof. If you believe other stores haven't noticed, you are just foolish. Some might change to HD DVD exclusively, or carry both or neither and try to gain a competitive advantage, none of that is known. The biggest response might be, so what? That won't be the only response.

If it is only conjecture, it is obviously accurate conjecture.

Chris

jdg345

06-21-07, 06:47 AM

Once Blockbusters stock in Blu-Ray's grow, the better chance you will have of finding the title you want to see on the shelf any given day. So the longer BB remains exclusive to Blu-Ray, the more people they will get to switch from Netflix who are Blu-Ray owners. I walked into a Hollywood Video and they too will be getting Blu-Ray pretty soon.. I asked what about HD-DVD and the manager said "No way, not after Blockbusters announcement".. Other stores are taking notice of this and are making changes to their plans already as to what they will do about carrying both items or choosing one.. Believe me, all the rest of the rental community will follow the leader so to speak on this one...

As far as the 'stock' issue, as their stock grows, and their user base grows ... how would you have a better chance of finding the titles you want? Stock would have to grow at a faster rate than userbase, otherwise you're just propogating the same shortages.

And ... Wow ... I don't know how you know all these informed folks. The guys at my Hollywood Video (the manager, specifically) said they had nothing on the horizon for either format. When I mentioned the Blockbuster thing, he said, "Yah, well, we're not Blockbuster" and gave me a grin. *shrug*

I'd like to believe you, but I'm still waiting for the Target thing you were promising. Perhaps you should try not to spout off antecdotal stuff and your own opinions as factual evidence of what the entire market is doing?

jdg345

06-21-07, 06:47 AM

No, I went to one Hollywood Video if you re-read my post. And I spoke to the manager for about half an hour. He said "No way" when I asked him about HD-DVD and when I asked why he mentioned Blockbuster's decision... How can this be FUD??? I can give you the number of the store so you can speak to the manager himself if you wish, however what's the point...

Absolutely, I'll take that one ... give me the store number and I'll drop them a line. I'll call a few other stores in the market and see what they say as well. ;)

jdg345

06-21-07, 06:55 AM

I will repeat, other stores are taking notice of the Blockbuster announcement. Will they do the same? I don't know, but I can guarantee they have noticed. Some things just require common sense, not absolute proof. If you believe other stores haven't noticed, you are just foolish. Some might change to HD DVD exclusively, or carry both or neither and try to gain a competitive advantage, none of that is known. The biggest response might be, so what? That won't be the only response.

If it is only conjecture, it is obviously accurate conjecture.

Chris

I'll agree that other stores are taking notice in that they know of the annoucement. I believe the poster was taking issue with the assumption that 'taking notice' meant a shift towards Blu-ray. Your comments are much more accurate imo in that while these other stores are taking notice of the annoucement, we do not yet know how they will react to them.

The tactic of trying to scare one side out of getting into the market place by stating assumptions and opinions as facts is really getting old ... :(

Unfortunately, what will probably make it worse is that these folks will make all sorts of claims, and eventually one dart will hit the board. They will then choose to ignore all the ones that hit the wall and tell everyone how right they were with their predictions while focusing on that one dart that hit. Which, frankly, is preying on the short term memory of the consumer -- something which is avidly disputed in this thread as it is suggested people will remember this Blockbuster news forever. Yet, with all the bad press TFE / Sony / PS3 got, Blu-ray still sold. Gee ... imagine that? :cool:

Chris Gerhard

06-21-07, 07:46 AM

I'll agree that other stores are taking notice in that they know of the annoucement. I believe the poster was taking issue with the assumption that 'taking notice' meant a shift towards Blu-ray. Your comments are much more accurate imo in that while these other stores are taking notice of the annoucement, we do not yet know how they will react to them.

The tactic of trying to scare one side out of getting into the market place by stating assumptions and opinions as facts is really getting old ... :(

Unfortunately, what will probably make it worse is that these folks will make all sorts of claims, and eventually one dart will hit the board. They will then choose to ignore all the ones that hit the wall and tell everyone how right they were with their predictions while focusing on that one dart that hit. Which, frankly, is preying on the short term memory of the consumer -- something which is avidly disputed in this thread as it is suggested people will remember this Blockbuster news forever. Yet, with all the bad press TFE / Sony / PS3 got, Blu-ray still sold. Gee ... imagine that? :cool:

I believe he said he spoke to one store manager and they are not going to mess with HD DVD was the response. He also said other stores are taking notice and making plans. You believe he meant something other than just what is written, and you are entitled to your opinion, I didn't read anything else into his statement and agree with it 100% as written.

Chris

alfbinet

06-21-07, 09:09 AM

Lodef

06-21-07, 09:10 AM

jdg345

06-21-07, 09:14 AM

I believe he said he spoke to one store manager and they are not going to mess with HD DVD was the response. He also said other stores are taking notice and making plans. You believe he meant something other than just what is written, and you are entitled to your opinion, I didn't read anything else into his statement and agree with it 100% as written.

Chris

Okay ... now I'm confused ... if you agree with it 100% as written, then why would you suggest that the possibility is that swinging towards HD DVD would be an option? The last part of his statement was:

Believe me, all the rest of the rental community will follow the leader so to speak on this one...

If the 'rest' are going to 'follow the leader', then he is specifically inferring that the 'rest' are going to expand Blu-ray leaving HD DVD to wallow. :confused:

Not only that, but he states this as a fact, that the rest will do something specific. You stated that 'no one knows for sure'.

Does that mean you're going to retract the original statement of:

Some might change to HD DVD exclusively, or carry both or neither and try to gain a competitive advantage, none of that is known.

?

plazman

06-21-07, 09:36 AM

Darin, looks like you are still confusing stuff (hopefully inadvertently).

1. When I use the term 60% and 40%, I am using them to imply in a general sense that HD DVD has enough market share to continue to be a viable player in this market. It is not the % themselves that matter, but that the percentage is not insignificant.

2. The basketball analogy is false here. Why? In a sport only one team wins, in a business it does not work that way. All you need is a market size to make it viable. There are companies that will make games for both xbox and PS3, although xbox have more than a 60% market share today and is outselling PS3 by over 2:1. The point is that the PS3 market is seen as profitable. The same thing applies here. This is NOT a basketball game where smeone comes and announces that OK game over, BD is selling more so we have a champion. That is not how things work....

3. Also, I would hate to think that anyone would see your analysis being anything other than BD biased - emotionally, not logically. One example. You pointed out how the 40% HD DVD share was SI and that BD was selling more disks etc etc, but you never mentioned the fact that If we go by what NPD said that in Q1 HD DVD and BD set top shares were 52%:48% and we now have 60%:40% that during Q2, HD DVD would have to sell more than 60% of the players sold - right? As for Europe, I am seeing the same thing as the US, PS3 driving software and HD DVD leading ob set top sales - however the sales volumes are very low and more importantly PS3 sales the US after the initial spurt to the exisiting base seems to have flattened out....

Finally in the two posts of mine you refer to, my points are pretty clear. If there are people on this thread who understand business will figure it out easily. The current market share ( and I am talking about the market today) and the $ value of business done by either side shows that the format wars are far from done...

You mention Disney and Pixar...and Fox. Yet you fail to say anything about how their Q2 releases and support at the end of Q2 is stronger than Q1. Is it? Can the same be said of Universal and Warner?

As for the Matrix box set, Warner could have easily broken it up to generate higher unit sales if they wanted to, but their packaging was designed to maximize revenue (it appears, not units sold). If you ignore what the BDA companies are saying, even the industry is looking at 2 formats beyond 2010....I believe there was an article in Video Business to the effect as well, with a 1.7:1 share.

Since both formats current market size is very small it is hard to tell what the long term stategy of the various studios will be. In the end money talks....and that is driven by the market, and as the markets evolve we will see what happens. Just remember this is NOT a basketball game or any game for that matter. Those analogies are false and do NOT reflect in any way how business works or companies exist or decisions are made....perhaps you can come up with a better analogy from your own industry :)

Grubert

06-21-07, 09:50 AM

1. When I use the term 60% and 40%, I am using them to imply in a general sense that HD DVD has enough market share to continue to be a viable player in this market. It is not the % themselves that matter, but that the percentage is not insignificant.

Oh, I see, a random stat like "reduces cellulite by 77%" to give credibility to otherwise random allegations.

Gotta love copywriters.

;)

plazman

06-21-07, 09:52 AM

jdg345

06-21-07, 09:52 AM

plazman

06-21-07, 09:55 AM

Grubert, can you clarify your statement? You disagree that HD DVD currently sells around 60% of HD set top boxes and 40% of movie titles? Not to say anything about common titles that sell often even closer to that ratio?

What has the % of cellulite got to do with this....

rlsmith

06-21-07, 10:01 AM

The format war inhibits competition in several very important ways.

Most importantly, it segments the market into two incompatible sets of products: HD DVD and Blu-ray. These do not compete directly with each other since the customer has to make the "big decision" about format before he can decide which model/brand to buy.

Once the format war is over, it is not the case that there will only be one vendor making nextgen players. All vendors will be making the same kind of player in direct competition.

As consumer confidence grows, adoption will increase. This will lead vendors to increase their volumes and be able to decrease their prices. Price reductions today based on loss-leader marketing strategies are not as effective as reductions caused by manufacturing efficiencies.

Some people seem to think that Toshiba makes better and less expensive products. Think how much better that will be when Toshiba is competing directly with Sony/Panasonic/etc.

Jiffylush

06-21-07, 10:02 AM

FWIW Blockbuster has once again left a window of opportunity for their next competitor. Last I checked, Blockbuster was trying hard not to lose market share to Netflix! Hence, why their online business cannot afford not to have HD DVD.

You seem to forget that their online business will continue to have HD DVD, so I guess they can afford it, especially since it doesn't use shelfspace in a retail location.

Also, it is not like Blockbuster is all gung ho with BD yet. We have 1450 stores out of a totla of 5000 or so that are going to have BD only. The biggest 250 stores + online will have both and I bet as the market grows we will see more stores with both formats.

One other point, just because you say something over and over doesn't mean anyone is going to accept it as fact. You are sitting in front of a computer how hard is it to research these things if the data exists?

I am referring to you wondering if the stores are the largest (yesterday?), then stating it as fact (see above).

plazman

06-21-07, 10:05 AM

I was wondering if any of the so called objective folks here had anything to say about the rumor that Paidgeek threw around about Target going BD hardware exclusive? I am guessing not! ;)

jdg345

06-21-07, 10:06 AM

You seem to forget that their online business will continue to have HD DVD, so I guess they can afford it, especially since it doesn't use shelfspace in a retail location.

One other point, just because you say something over and over doesn't mean anyone is going to accept it as fact. You are sitting in front of a computer how hard is it to research these things if the data exists?

I am referring to you wondering if the stores are the largest (yesterday?), then stating it as fact (see above).

I *really* wish that people on Both Sides would realize that and stop the practice. :rolleyes:

Jiffylush

06-21-07, 10:07 AM

I was wondering if any of the so called objective folks here had anything to say about the rumor that Paidgeek threw around about Target going BD hardware exclusive? I am guessing not! ;)

I don't think anyone in this thread is objective, even though most would appear objective when compared to you.

I don't mind getting rumours, only time will tell if it is true. I don't think anyone is lining up outside of a Target right now based on the incoming flood of blu-ray players that are coming in.

plazman

06-21-07, 10:15 AM

I am not 100% sure, but based on my experience it appears to be so. So, I should retract the statement that the biggest 250 stores carry both, to say 'perhaps' the biggest, but that isn't the issue...

I guess I could be accurate and say 36% and 63% etc., but the points I am making are not based on a couple of % points, but rather looking at the overall market and how each is doing. The question is based on market share is it looking like the format war is over and BD has won? The answer to that is no. Anyone who looks at this objectively will see that. The % points here and there is just not that material. It IS perhaps in the Neilson thread where we are talking about the exact number of disks sold, for those who care about it. But for a business the question is do I want to lose 40% of my potential customers, or 30% of my potential cusomers etc. etc.

I am on my PDA, not computer on the train to NYC!

How many threads did Paidgeeks rumor start of? Was the intention to create FUD to go with the BB announcement? What do you think?

jpco

06-21-07, 10:23 AM

I'm not objective only in the fact that I want the format war resolved so I can make a decision on which way to go. It is too early to tell what, if any, effect BB's announcement will have on the formats.

When I read people comparing this format war to competition between video games consoles or consumer electronics retailers, I just don't understand. A movie is a movie, and it will be the same movie on any platform. I want a medium for watching HD movies at home at the highest possible quality. I don't care about the internal workings of the player or which companies developed or supported the technology. There is no way that these two formats coexisting will be good for sustainable, mainstream adoption.

And I don't see anywhere where it says the 250 dual disc Blockbusters are the largest, nor can I see why it would matter anyway.

plazman

06-21-07, 10:25 AM

Jiffy what have I said that is untrue or a rumor I have posted here? My primary argument is that the data does not show that BD has won the war. Isn't that EXACTLY what the BDA is doing, repeating this over and over again....to make people believe it is so?

How am I not objective when I say that the format war is far from over? I'd like to be educated on this....what is the law that says only one format must exist? And if such a law exists for home video, what makes this market unique?

Grubert

06-21-07, 10:27 AM

Grubert, can you clarify your statement? You disagree that HD DVD currently sells around 60% of HD set top boxes and 40% of movie titles?

Define currently. Last week, last month, last quarter, year-to-date?

Jiffylush

06-21-07, 10:28 AM

Jiffy what have I said that is untrue or a rumor I have posted here?

Did you not read my post?

How am I not objective when I say that the format war is far from over? I'd like to be educated on this....what is the law that says only one format must exist? And if such a law exists for home video, what makes this market unique?

You are not objective in your crusade for HD DVD against Blu-ray, not in your it isn't over stance.

I am not claiming objectivity in this matter either, don't know many here who can rightfully claim it.

jdg345

06-21-07, 10:32 AM

I'm pretty sure that objectivity, depending on how it's qualified, is going to be scarce in this thread. Topics like this seem to attract the least objective of folks, not to mention that we all have some sort of bias, no matter how small it may be.

All I know is that at least Leroy and I got some chicken ... ;)

plazman

06-21-07, 10:33 AM

Curently as is IF a studio were to release a title on both formats what would be the expected market breakdown. I didn't realize this was such a difficult concept to grasp. I guess I do this type of analysis more often than others :)

I don't believing I am crusading for HD DVD as much as fighting the FUD, misinformation and lies from the BDA. I am also averse to anti market tactics. My first crusade was to show that competition is good for consumers. Why do Ht enthusiasts like the fact that one side wants to restrict competition by controlling content? How is this pro consumer?

d3code

06-21-07, 10:36 AM

plazman.

in what kind of world are you living. i look very objectively and i see just waht blockbuster is seeing. the customers are chosing bluray over hd-dvd. that is simply based on facts.

what does that do for hd-dvd? simple. it lays a timebomb under hd-dvd. hd-dvd needs to find something to attack the blockbuster announcement. that means it has to come up with an announcement equal in force. if not then bluray will keep on going further ahead with a bigger speed.

ken from universal always pointed to the fourth quarter. well since the second quarter is almost over. the third quarter will be vital for information for the fourth Quarter. if nothing comes out of the HD-DVD camp in 2007 worth mentioning. it will lose the battle in 2007. i dont say the war is over. but 2007 will be over.

there are RUMORS flying around of cheap hd-dvds etc. chinese etc. but as long as there are no facts to base it on and you look at it OBJECTIVELY then HD-DVD will lose the battle in 2007.

Jiffylush

06-21-07, 10:37 AM

plazman

06-21-07, 10:41 AM

I was not trying to imply that BB would carry HDDVD in the markets that matter. simply that BB was not Bd exclusive as some seem to imply. In any case the BB announcement was great for BD. No doubt!

Lee Stewart

06-21-07, 10:43 AM

I would like to show all of you the importance (or lack of ) news article that quote CEM executives and the kind of spin they put on their interviews.

Here is an excerpt from the updated article on Panasonic announcing they are behind BD and that it will win:

UPDATE! Secaucus, N.J. — Joseph Taylor, executive VP/COO of Panasonic Corporation of North America, said Blu-ray has won the HD disc format battle and indicated while the company is still solidly behind plasma, LCD may get more attention.

Here is the complete article:

http://www.twice.com/article/CA6453379.html

Here is the truth . . . .

In the FPD marketplace, 1st qtr 2007, sales of LCD are enjoying triple digit growth while sales of PDP are down.

As Panasonic is backing PDP to the hilt - my read is that he is down playing this totally, by his saying "LCD may get more attention." To me THAT is a real understatement.

Link - last paragraph:

http://www.tvpredictions.com/cc1080062107.htm

Lodef

06-21-07, 11:31 AM

Did you not read my post?

You are not objective in your crusade for HD DVD against Blu-ray, not in your it isn't over stance.

I am not claiming objectivity in this matter either, don't know many here who can rightfully claim it.

The Blu people want all HD DVD supporters to agree that the war is over just because they say so. Well last time I checked Toshiba was still making players and have not mentioned anything of throwing in the towel considering they have a decent percentage of the HD market, movies are still being sold and there are plenty of happy HD DVD owners out there enjoying their product. So when Plazman points this out, he is not being objective? Based on FACTS he is right and you are wrong. IT really is as simple as that. If you want to believe otherwise, go right ahead, but that does not make it any more true.

The old commercial of WHERES THE BEEF would apply well here.

mobius

06-21-07, 11:31 AM

Jiffylush

06-21-07, 11:38 AM

Lee Stewart

06-21-07, 11:40 AM

LOL, Blockbuster.

More quarterly profit driven drivel with no eye towards the long view. So typical of American companies nowadays. What happens when Bluray doesn’t have a fortuitously timed “megahit” release such as Casino Royale, Spiderman, or POTC to carry Bluray in the quarters that follow? Yeah, good thinking Blockbuster. :rolleyes:

I don’t rent movies, but I have bought movies and rented games there- no more though. FWIW, (probably nothing) I have notified them in writing that their decision has cost them my business.

What difference does it make if they do or they don't have one of these "megahits"

The HiDef Disc marketplace is SO small it is pathetic!

SID - sales of HD movies - $55 million

SID - 500+ HD titles released

SID - average sales revenue per movie released = $110,000

When one of these "megahits" comes to DVD, that revenue is done 35 minutes of selling time versus a whole year!

plasmalover

06-21-07, 11:40 AM

SimpleTheater

06-21-07, 11:54 AM

The Blu people want all HD DVD supporters to agree that the war is over just because they say so. Well last time I checked Toshiba was still making players and have not mentioned anything of throwing in the towel considering they have a decent percentage of the HD market, movies are still being sold and there are plenty of happy HD DVD owners out there enjoying their product. So when Plazman points this out, he is not being objective? Based on FACTS he is right and you are wrong. IT really is as simple as that. If you want to believe otherwise, go right ahead, but that does not make it any more true.
Just because I can walk into Best Buy and pick up a newly manufactured VHS player, doesn't mean VHS is still fighting a format war with DVD. That war is over, regardless of the small niche VHS still fills.

I'm not putting HD-DVD in the "lost the war" camp yet, but they need a major reversal of fortunes in the next six months or the war will be over. Universal's lack of blockbusters over the past three years is of no help either: ( Recent BlockBusters (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=822951)

WayneL

06-21-07, 12:14 PM

Like Plazman, I think HD-DVD improved its position in Q2. The BB announcement may have taken the edge off the Tosh sale, but maybe not.

Edit: P.S. the paucity of BD exclusive studio releases can be spun to say they don't believe they can make money in their format only - take that BB

todrigo

06-21-07, 12:15 PM

When vinyl records were king did any other audio format really succeed until 8-track?

When 8-track was king did any other audio format succeed untl cassette tape?

When cassette tape was kind did any other audio format succeed until CD?

CD went unopposed for about a decade until mp3 downloads. But for physical medium CD is still king and no other physical format has yet to pose a real challenge.

VHS was King after securing victory over Beta and did any format succeed until DVD?

DVD has been king for a number of years and will be for a number more. No physical format has found any success competing with DVD.

HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are now competing to be the possible successor to DVD. Studios don't care about which format they only care about volume of sales. Disc producers don't want to have to run 2 production lines when one would be more profitable, distributers don't want to handle smaller shippments of 2 products when they could handle one larger shippment. Retailers don't want to stock 2 versions of the same product when one product would sell just as well. Consumers don't want to buy two players/accessories for every TV when they realize one could take care of their needs. The way I see it if one format wins the only losers are the hardware producers of the losing format. Even then they could still jump in on the winning side and produce that hardware.

What this tells us is that it is very likely that there will be only one format for a generation. Battles will be fought over which format that will be but two competing formats do not have a history of co-existing.

Right now everyone is losing. Both sides of the hardware battle are cutting margins so thin or even taking a hit. Consumers are not getting as many releases even in the format neutral camp as would be possible from a single format situation. Retailers are having to either understock both formats or cut one out of the equation to make the space usage reasonable. Distributers have to manage double the packages. Disc producers have to install 2 new systems and make shorter print runs because the market is split. Movie companies see sales volume below expectations because of consumer hesitation.

SimpleTheater

06-21-07, 12:15 PM

More quarterly profit driven drivel with no eye towards the long view. So typical of American companies nowadays. What happens when Bluray doesn’t have a fortuitously timed “megahit” release such as Casino Royale, Spiderman, or POTC to carry Bluray in the quarters that follow? Yeah, good thinking Blockbuster. :rolleyes:
Excellent Point. What happens to Blu-Ray sales/rentals after Pirates 3 is released and no longer available this Christmas? Or Spiderman 3, Chronicles of Narnia, Ratatouille, Fantastic 4 - Silver Surfer, Night at the Museum, or the re-release of Cars?

What happens after mega-hits like the Simpsons Movie is released and next years sure-fire hit sequel to Chronicles of Narnia.

I agree entirely, it's only a matter of time when Blu-Ray has no megahit to release.

Chris Gerhard

06-21-07, 12:23 PM

Okay ... now I'm confused ... if you agree with it 100% as written, then why would you suggest that the possibility is that swinging towards HD DVD would be an option? The last part of his statement was:

If the 'rest' are going to 'follow the leader', then he is specifically inferring that the 'rest' are going to expand Blu-ray leaving HD DVD to wallow. :confused:

Not only that, but he states this as a fact, that the rest will do something specific. You stated that 'no one knows for sure'.

Does that mean you're going to retract the original statement of:

?

It is his opinion that the rest will, and that is fine. He stated facts which I agree with then his opinion which is fine with me as well and I can tell the difference between the two. He didn't state that he has any evidence any other stores other than the one he spoke with will follow the leader, but he has an opinion they will. All of it is fine with me. I understand you are trying to indicate he has stated such as fact, and I don't read it. We all often state facts and opinions and all that is necessary for me is to be able to distinguish between the two. I could and accept his statement as written without complaint and I don't have a clue what other rental companies are going to do. I suspect most will avoid both formats like the plague.

Chris

desmond212

06-21-07, 12:26 PM

SimpleTheater

06-21-07, 12:39 PM

studios will continue to produce hit movies. sony, disney and fox will have other hits as will warner. bd has a bigger product pipeline than hddvd that's its main advantage since sales are driven by new releases of megahits.
Really? :)

I thought my list of 10 megahits and statements of future movies being release was enough sarcasm to drown in. Next time I'll use the smiley so no one is confused.

Jiffylush

06-21-07, 12:40 PM

Really? :)

I thought my list of 10 megahits and statements of future movies being release was enough sarcasm to drown in. Next time I'll use the smiley so no one is confused.

TBH I almost posted about it as well, there are way to many unbelievable posts to assume sarcasm imho.

desmond212

06-21-07, 12:44 PM

Really? :)

I thought my list of 10 megahits and statements of future movies being release was enough sarcasm to drown in. Next time I'll use the smiley so no one is confused.

got me there....

jdg345

06-21-07, 12:49 PM

I also agreed the war will be over by 08. And about those cheap Chinese players, if the Toshiba going for $250 with 5 free titles can't generate huge sales, what the hell can cheapo no-name, $199 Chinese players do?

Huh? Toshiba moved like 50k units in less than 6 weeks with their promotion. I'm sure they were expecting more, but that certainly doesn't suck. And, likely, software sales haven't caught up to the hardware spike. We might need to wait for the June numbers.

Lee Stewart

06-21-07, 01:43 PM

To put the WHOLE HD movie marketplace into propspective:

SID - $55 million in sales

SID - $22 million in rentals (based on 2006 DVD sales to rentals ratio)

SID - total revenue - $77 million

SID = 14 months

Cars sold 10 million copies of which 5 millon sold in the first 24 hours of street date.

What took HD DVD and BD 14 months to accomplish, with both sales and rentals . . . . Cars did in the first 35 minutes of the first 24 hours that the movie was available!

There is a format war alright . . . . .

But there is no market!

Jiffylush

06-21-07, 01:44 PM

To put the WHOLE HD movie marketplace into propspective:

SID - $55 million in sales

SID - $22 million in rentals (based on 2006 DVD sales to rentals formula)

SID - total revenue - $77 million

SID = 14 months

Cars sold 10 million copies of which 5 millon sold in the first 24 hours of street date.

What took HD DVD and BD 14 months to accomplish, with both sales and rentals . . . . Cars did in the first 35 minutes of the first 24 hours that the movie was available!

There is a format war alright . . . . .

But there is no market!

So I can expect you to stop fighting for the smaller portion of the non-existent market any minute now right? ;)

desmond212

06-21-07, 01:47 PM

Lodef

06-21-07, 01:57 PM

Huh? Toshiba moved like 50k units in less than 6 weeks with their promotion. I'm sure they were expecting more, but that certainly doesn't suck. And, likely, software sales haven't caught up to the hardware spike. We might need to wait for the June numbers.

Yeah, I guess they miss that part. But they just think the format is dead so even if HD DVD sales were better than Blu-ray this month it still won't make a difference because they think, and I'll say it again the format is dead. So their not going to change their mind no matter what the facts are because , yup you guessed it, the format is dead. I wonder if they go to bed at night repeating this over and over to themselves and believe if they say it enough times, means it must be true because thats how they post in this forum.

Lee Stewart

06-21-07, 01:59 PM

So I can expect you to stop fighting for the smaller portion of the non-existent market any minute now right? ;)

Probably not because I enjoy people's different prospectives of the war, their opinons on it and their prognastications as to where it is heading. Lately I have enjoyed the forums more, than watching my favorite movies in HD!

These threads to me - represent a communications challange with people I do not know. Talk with your friends - you pretty much know where they stand on issues.

And again, to me HD as a whole is a hobby. And lately, the forums have become a part of that hobby.

Here there are a miriad of differences and I learn a hell of a lot, just reading the posts.

But as I have shown in my above post, though the fighting between red and blue should be bloody and filled with gore . . . .

We ourselves have to hold our emotions in check, and never attack a poster, even if the opportunity is overwhelming.

darinp2

06-21-07, 02:10 PM

1. When I use the term 60% and 40%, I am using them to imply in a general sense that HD DVD has enough market share to continue to be a viable player in this market. It is not the % themselves that matter, but that the percentage is not insignificant.This is a poor excuse. It seems that you can't defend the numbers you gave effectively, so now you are claiming that they don't matter. If the numbers don't matter and you can't defend them, then you shouldn't state them as facts to begin with. You could have said what you wanted to say without solid numbers, in which case you wouldn't be getting questioned on them.
2. The basketball analogy is false here. Why? In a sport only one team wins, in a business it does not work that way. All you need is a market size to make it viable. There are companies that will make games for both xbox and PS3, although xbox have more than a 60% market share today and is outselling PS3 by over 2:1. The point is that the PS3 market is seen as profitable. The same thing applies here. This is NOT a basketball game where smeone comes and announces that OK game over, BD is selling more so we have a champion. That is not how things work....I agree that that basketball analogy is far from perfect. Another reason is that it is more like a game where the players put their reputations on the line and can switch teams, go to the bench, or play for both teams. But, you could have made the same arguments about both surviving back with the VHS vs Beta war. In that one I think we can agree that there did end up being one winner in the consumer space. And while I haven't verified it, one person reported that one of the big events in that war was when the company that later became Blockbuster decided to drop rentals for Beta. Maybe Sony learned something there.
3. Also, I would hate to think that anyone would see your analysis being anything other than BD biased - emotionally, not logically. One example. You pointed out how the 40% HD DVD share was SI and that BD was selling more disks etc etc, but you never mentioned the fact that If we go by what NPD said that in Q1 HD DVD and BD set top shares were 52%:48% and we now have 60%:40% that during Q2, HD DVD would have to sell more than 60% of the players sold - right?Sorry, but this example you gave is just funny given that I was trying to lead you to what I thought was obvious (what you said here) and once you figured that out you blame me and use it as an example of bias. Maybe I need to spell it out. To go from 52% to 60% we know it averaged higher than that and the evidence is that much of this happened recently (Toshiba's sale). Yet you claimed 60% in the same sentence where you claimed 40% for software. I think it is clear that the 60% was SI (which you didn't seem to want to answer, but instead accuse me of bias because I was trying to get you to see that it wouldn't have been the number for recently, if you hadn't figured that out already), so if the software number you gave (40%) wasn't SI also, you should have said so. And that is besides the fact that in what I responded to originally above said "hardware" and not set top boxes. If you want to limit it to set top boxes then you should say so, like you have in some spots.
As for Europe, I am seeing the same thing as the US, PS3 driving software and HD DVD leading ob set top sales - however the sales volumes are very low and more importantly PS3 sales the US after the initial spurt to the exisiting base seems to have flattened out....A key difference I see with Europe is that it doesn't look like HD DVD had built up near the base to compete with the PS3. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the HD DVD camp has less than 50k total between standalones and XBOX360 add-ons in PAL regions to compete with 1 million PS3s (plus Blu-ray standalones), where in the US it looks more like around 300k on HD DVD side to compete with about 1.5 million PS3s plus standalones.
Finally in the two posts of mine you refer to, my points are pretty clear. If there are people on this thread who understand business will figure it out easily. The current market share ( and I am talking about the market today) and the $ value of business done by either side shows that the format wars are far from done...Okay then tell us why you used 60% for the HD DVD standalone number when it should have been obvious that this wasn't right as a recent figure, but was an SI figure.
You mention Disney and Pixar...and Fox. Yet you fail to say anything about how their Q2 releases and support at the end of Q2 is stronger than Q1. Is it? Can the same be said of Universal and Warner?The health of a format and odds of winning has a lot to do with what is left to use in the future. Their releases today do not have to be better for the odds of their side winning to go up. Just like how movies are accepted at the theater don't go into how their releases on disc were for the format, but do affect the outlook. Much like stocks.
As for the Matrix box set, Warner could have easily broken it up to generate higher unit sales if they wanted to, but their packaging was designed to maximize revenue (it appears, not units sold).They could have and it is a good point to keep in mind.
If you ignore what the BDA companies are saying, even the industry is looking at 2 formats beyond 2010....I believe there was an article in Video Business to the effect as well, with a 1.7:1 share.You seem to want to go back to what was said before the Blockbuster announcement and ignore what has been said since. And of course there are some who believe they will pretty much share the market even in 2010. From what I've read it is probably less than thought that last week, but I'm sure there are still people in the industry who believe that. I have my doubts about whether it is enough to claim that "even the industry" is thinking that.
Since both formats current market size is very small it is hard to tell what the long term stategy of the various studios will be. In the end money talks....and that is driven by the market, and as the markets evolve we will see what happens. Just remember this is NOT a basketball game or any game for that matter. Those analogies are false and do NOT reflect in any way how business works or companies exist or decisions are made....perhaps you can come up with a better analogy from your own industry :)How about just looking at VHS vs Beta instead and telling us why in the end they didn't just coexist in the consumer market? As I see it, both sides are driving toward trying to get major events to happen that will change the war significantly. For HD DVD, that is trying to get enough to happen to get Disney to go neutral (and maybe Lionsgate before them). For Blu-ray, it is trying to get enough to happen to get Universal to go neutral. And then there are the efforts to get neutral studios to go exclusive.

Seriously, if you were an oddsmaker would you put the odds at it more likely that Universal would go neutral first or Disney will go neutral first?

Also, if you were an oddsmaker would you seriously put the odds of HD DVD winner at better today than on March 31st, 2007 (the end of Q1)?

--Darin

plazman

06-21-07, 02:19 PM

This is a poor excuse. It seems that you can't defend the numbers you gave effectively, so now you are claiming that they don't matter. If the numbers don't matter and you can't defend them, then you shouldn't state them as facts to begin with. You could have said what you wanted to say without solid numbers, in which case you wouldn't be getting questioned on them.

--Darin

HD DVD has 60% set top hardware and 40% software illustrates an accurate picture of how each format is doing. Not sure what you are arguing here....

Look at titles that are released on both formats and see what their relative sales are for the most recent months, check out the weekly sales for the most recent months and see what you come up with. At a high level it would be around 40% HD DVD and 60% BD. That is an accurate picture of the situation. Saying one is 64% and the other is 36% does not materially change the argument.

As for player sales, again HD DVD probably sold way more than 60% in the past few months of all set top boxes to end up with 60% SI.

It looks like you want to deliberately miss the main point by beating around the bush.

One reason why Beta and VHS did not co-exist is because if you bought a beta player there were certain movies that you just could not watch on the player. Period. With HD DVD and BD, all movies are also on DVD so any player you buy will play all movies - the trade-off is in what % of the movies will be in high def. I am sure there are other arguments, but this is a fundamental difference in use.

Another thing that comes to mind for me is that beta (at least how I remember it) did not have the capacity to play an entire movie, while VHS did. So, beta was not a good choice.

As for why beta lost, there are so many reasons that one never knows. Plus that was a different time, different technology and we can't assume the same conclusion....

Bailey151

06-21-07, 02:19 PM

one person reported that one of the big events in that war was when the company that later became Blockbuster decided to drop rentals for Beta.
Well then that "one person" would be full of manure. Rental companies, they were clubs then - that you paid to join (for the privledge of renting :) ) had ZERO affect on the outcome. They simply responded. It was decided by two factors 1) recording time 2) price. A two hour movie fit on VHS & the players were a bit cheaper = that's what won. You could fit a 2hr porno on VHS, not so for beta.

At this point the whole thing is irrelevent - there will be no mass acceptance @ this price point. When the media and players are close we'll see the tide - until then it matters little.

And I happen to think it makes sense for B&M BB stores, I'd be willing to bet the fans of "Ghost Rider" type movies make up a good portion of their B&M business.

jdg345

06-21-07, 02:24 PM

it is about potential market.

The DEG findings were reported this week by Warner Bros. senior vice president Steve Nickerson at an industry panel discussion of entertainment executives in Los Angeles. Warner Bros. is currently releasing high-def DVDs in both the Blu-ray and HD DVD formats.

Nickerson said that consumers are preparing to embrace the new high-def DVD category, according to Video Business.

“Between April and mid-December, it was a warm-up, and since Christmas, it has been a very sustained level of business,” said Nickerson. "Really, this year is preparing for further consumer uptake of high-def. It will mirror the year 1999 or 2000 for DVD.”

Didn't VideoBusiness also say that both formats will exist in 2010 at a 1.7:1 ratio? And didn't some Blu-ray supporters say that wasn't important because the folks at VideoBusiness aren't that smart?

Oh, and once BDJ is working as expected, we'll know how committed WB is ... but for now, they seem to be leaning HD DVD.

darinp2

06-21-07, 02:31 PM

FWIW Blockbuster has once again left a window of opportunity for their next competitor. Last I checked, Blockbuster was trying hard not to lose market share to Netflix! Hence, why their online business cannot afford not to have HD DVD.

Hollywood Video would be crazy to ape Blockbuster and not to seizeon this opportunity. Circuit City for instance started pushing HD DVD once they saw that Best Buy was doing a poor job and they took that opportunity. Now even the HD DVD promo group ads here in DC feature Circuit City but not Best Buy and yesterday I noticed that a Best Buy that had no HD DVD demos was now running an A20 with 40 Regza in a prime location!Since you seem to be claiming that you know what they should do and that we are confusing how competition works, how about putting your business hat on and telling us what Hollywood Video should do? I went in one the other day and talked to a guy there who has come across as very smart in the past. He said that he wasn't surprised by the Blockbuster news since rentals at this HV had started to skew quite a bit toward Blu-ray. I mentioned that they used to have about even amounts of each and now had about 2/3rds Blu-ray and 1/3rd HD DVD. He responded that rentals seemed like they were skewed even much more than that. 75% or more for Blu-ray in his estimation.

The information from Blockbuster is that it was over 70% for Blu-ray, which would mean under 30% for HD DVD. So, I'll start with those and we can discuss whether different numbers should be used. Now, in the case of no kickbacks, HV could choose to go with neither for their stores that don't have them now, both, or just one. Both is a possibility, with multiple factors to consider there (like shelf space). But if they did decide to go with just one, which one should they go for? You seem to imply that the decision is easy to go with HD DVD (please correct this if that isn't your position if they only went with one). If their stores that are near Blockbuster stores are doing better than those Blockbuster stores, then by going with Blu-ray they would have a good chance of taking over 50% of that over 70%. And even if the stores do equal amounts, good chance of 50% of over 70% (which is over 35% of that total). Or they could choose to just go with the under 30% format and compete with Blockbuster that way. Choosing the same format as Blockbuster could lead to less consumer confusion from two formats and get some people in who wouldn' otherwise jump in. Of course, the competition could lower prices for players and get other people in. But in the long run I could definitely see HV looking at this and feeling that both going with one format would increase the size of the HD on disc market and also help defend against the HD downloads that some hope to advance and take business away from these storefront locations.

If you disagree with the above analysis, then please say how and tell us what decision you think HV should make. How should HV seize on this opportunity given that they've also been testing both formats and their 2 stores I check regularly have gone from even amounts of titles on both to about 2/3rds Blu-rays?
Also, it is not like Blockbuster is all gung ho with BD yet. We have 1450 stores out of a totla of 5000 or so that are going to have BD only. The biggest 250 stores + online will have both and I bet as the market grows we will see more stores with both formats.I have not seen anything that told us whether these original 250 stores would continue getting new HD DVDs or just rent the ones they have. The stuff I saw made it obvious that online would continue getting new releases, but didn't say for those stores. I went in one and asked them, but they didn't know anything.
Also, I don't believe Evan Almighty is the only thing going to be released on HD DVD as Darin implies - gosh, how ridiculous is that from someone who has that sig ;)I didn't imply that Evan Almighty is the only thing going to be released on HD DVD and this is a ridiculous accusation. I figured you could follow a bullet point list of things I considered negative for HD DVD in the quarter without making something like that up. I'm not going to apologize for your twisting of what I said. There are multiple arrows in the quiver for both sides, Ken Graffeo has claimed that HD DVD's releases in Q4 will be better, and with Evan Almighty reportedly being the most expensive comedy ever (at least in absolute dollars) I am sure that many have (and/or had) high hopes for it. Maybe it will still do well with audiences and it is now up to 19% thumbs up with critics, but that doesn't look very promising. Honestly, I can't believe you made this accusation, since I think I made my list pretty clear and you really had to twist things to claim I implied that Evan Almighty is the only thing going to be released on HD DVD. I didn't imply that Spiderman 3, Pirates 3, and Ratatouille are the only things that are going to be released on Blu-ray either.

--Darin

geko29

06-21-07, 02:31 PM

How about just looking at VHS vs Beta instead and telling us why in the end they didn't just coexist in the consumer market?
There's a major distinction there in that they're physically incompatible. You simply can't make a Beta->VHS adapter, and a dual-transport deck would be rediculously ungainly. You couldn't have them side by side because it'd be more than 19" wide, so you'd have to stack them and have an 8-10" tall VCR. Nobody wants that.

HD DVD and Blu-Ray are a completely different story. They only defining physical difference between them on a player level is the read angle of the pickup head. There's nothing to prevent dual-format players from becoming popular, much as there are many current units that play DVD, DVD-A, SACD, CD, CD+G, VCD, SVCD, and any other optical format you can think of that comes on a shiny 5" disc. HD DVD and Blu-Ray playback can be "added" to this type of machine relatively easily to make a truly universal player. This has never been possible before.

SimpleTheater

06-21-07, 02:33 PM

As for player sales, again HD DVD probably sold way more than 60% in the past few months of all set top boxes to end up with 60% SI.
Before the format war started everyone and their Grandma was saying the PS3 was Sony's Trojan Horse - to sneak into peoples homes under the guise as the next PS2.

Statistics pointed to 25% of all PS2 owners using their PS2 as their primary DVD player. There are no statistics to back up my next statement, but a large minority of PS3 owners bought a PS3 to watch movies, not games, due to it being the cheapest Blu-Ray player available.

Yet when people give their hardware numbers they exclude the PS3 as if it doesn't exist. The problem is, not only DOES it exist, but the PS3 is doing exactly what Sony said it would - pushing Blu-Ray over the threshold.

Blockbuster recognized the value of Blu-Ray and the PS3. They get gamers and movie goers by stocking Blu-Ray and save important shelf-space by stocking only one movie format.

Lee Stewart

06-21-07, 02:33 PM

The VHS/Beta War:

Beta had better PQ and AQ

VHS had a longer recording time

And Beta only lost the consumer war. It literally took over the professional video market - and is just now being "updated" with a BD based format.

Sony has two big "tent poles" . . . Pro Video and Sales of TV's

desmond212

06-21-07, 02:36 PM

Didn't VideoBusiness also say that both formats will exist in 2010 at a 1.7:1 ratio? And didn't some Blu-ray supporters say that wasn't important because the folks at VideoBusiness aren't that smart?

Oh, and once BDJ is working as expected, we'll know how committed WB is ... but for now, they seem to be leaning HD DVD.

the quote is from the studio exec not from videobusiness... all of dual wb releases have sold more on bd. if they choose to go exclusive it will be bd.

Lee Stewart

06-21-07, 02:38 PM

the quote is from the studio exec not from videobusiness... all of dual wb releases have sold more on bd. if they choose to go exclusive it will be bd.

WB will be the LAST studio to give up HD DVD. They are in the war for the money - plain and simple.

bdizzle

06-21-07, 02:38 PM

Yeah, I guess they miss that part. But they just think the format is dead so even if HD DVD sales were better than Blu-ray this month it still won't make a difference because they think, and I'll say it again the format is dead. So their not going to change their mind no matter what the facts are because , yup you guessed it, the format is dead. I wonder if they go to bed at night repeating this over and over to themselves and believe if they say it enough times, means it must be true because thats how they post in this forum.

Who is the "They" you're referring to? If it's the general public, I don't think many of them are going to either remember or care 3-4 months from now about the blockbuster blu-ray deal. I mean Paris Hilton being in jail is getting more press than either of these formats. Just because it was a headline, doesn't mean it's going to make an impact. Currently prices are too high all around. Considering this format is supposed to replace DVD, it has to match DVD's price. IF HD DVD simply quit tomorrow, I still can't see it making a big difference at the current price point. 20-30% of homes have HDTV, and of that segment of the market, another large percentage doesn't receive HD feeds (like my gf's mom.....) and really cant tell that big of a difference.

I think its only in the minds of AVS posters is where this news is a big deal in any sense of the word

darinp2

06-21-07, 02:40 PM

HD DVD has 60% set top hardware and 40% software illustrates an accurate picture of how each format is doing. Not sure what you are arguing here....Again, why not tell us whether you are using SI or just recent here? If you are using recent for software, why would you use 60% for set top hardware when that is the SI number and the recent number should be much more than that?
As for player sales, again HD DVD probably sold way more than 60% in the past few months of all set top boxes to end up with 60% SI.Yes, you finally seemed to get what I was trying to get you to see, so why not tell us whether your 40% for software was also SI, or whether you were mixing them in the same sentence without saying so?
It looks like you want to deliberately miss the main point by beating around the bush.You seem to be beating around the bush and trying to change the subject from your original claim that I responded to. Was HD DVD doing better now than the end of Q1. You seem to want to change the subject to something we don't disagree on. The war isn't over. That isn't the discussion and if you keep going there you are just trying to change the subject.

--Darin

desmond212

06-21-07, 02:42 PM

WB will be the LAST studio to give up HD DVD. They are in the war for the money - plain and simple.

i always thought that universal would be the last one...

darinp2

06-21-07, 02:44 PM

There's a major distinction there in that they're physically incompatible. You simply can't make a Beta->VHS adapter, and a dual-transport deck would be rediculously ungainly. You couldn't have them side by side because it'd be more than 19" wide, so you'd have to stack them and have an 8-10" tall VCR. Nobody wants that.Good point. If neither side can get enough of a lead then dual format could be the outcome here. I have a hard time imaging Blu-ray going away completely for movies at this point with the PS3s out there, Sony having a studio, and recent news, but dual format is definitely a possibility. And something that I'm sure some are hoping for. One difference this time is Sony having a studio though. As much as that might upset some people, it is the reality right now. And it would take a lot of Sony to release on HD DVD with how much they've staked on Blu-ray. I doubt it would take nearly as much for Universal or even Disney to go neutral.

--Darin

SimpleTheater

06-21-07, 02:44 PM

One reason why Beta and VHS did not co-exist is because if you bought a beta player there were certain movies that you just could not watch on the player. Period. With HD DVD and BD, all movies are also on DVD so any player you buy will play all movies - the trade-off is in what % of the movies will be in high def. I am sure there are other arguments, but this is a fundamental difference in use.
This is an argument ONLY an HD-DVD supporter can make. I want ALL my movies in high-def and I don't want SD-DVD's any longer. I'd own a dual format player right now if it wasn't for the nearly daily posting on the HD-DVD forum about movies that don't play,stop at certain times, or scratch too easily. But even with all those problems, I'd have an HD-DVD player today if Universal put out Gladiator on HD-DVD. Universal's lack of must have titles pushed me to Blu-Ray.

Bailey151

06-21-07, 02:49 PM

Statistics pointed to 25% of all PS2 owners using their PS2 as their primary DVD player. There are no statistics to back up my next statement, but a large minority of PS3 owners bought a PS3 to watch movies, not games, due to it being the cheapest Blu-Ray player available.
Both a plus and a minus. Ancedotal but I've talked to quite a few folks about the PS3 referencing it plays movies, same answer everytime "yeah, I'll bet it's a POS player just like the PS2". Folks here know better but there's still a negative perception of console AND movie player.

Blockbuster recognized the value of Blu-Ray and the PS3. They get gamers and movie goers by stocking Blu-Ray and save important shelf-space by stocking only one movie format.
Yep, makes perfect sense. Floor space is precious...............though I'm not sure it's going to do much for a while yet.

Yet when people give their hardware numbers they exclude the PS3 as if it doesn't exist. The problem is, not only DOES it exist, but the PS3 is doing exactly what Sony said it would - pushing Blu-Ray over the threshold.
Trouble is that the PS3 @ it's current price is getting it's arse kicked - more & more I hear "heard it's not so good". IMHO a price cut would go a long way.

This is an argument ONLY an HD-DVD supporter can make. I want ALL my movies in high-def and I don't want SD-DVD's any longer. I'd own a dual format player right now if it wasn't for the nearly daily posting on the HD-DVD forum about movies that don't play,stop at certain times, or scratch too easily. But even with all those problems, I'd have an HD-DVD player today if Universal put out Gladiator on HD-DVD. Universal's lack of must have titles pushed me to Blu-Ray.
Same level as Blu-rot = not much. Like most any forum - you hear most from the complainers. Pick a movie = zero issues so I have nothing to post about. Updates? Same, zero issues & again no posts. I'd wager it's pretty much the same for Blu-rot, certainly not enough to scare me away.

Supermans

06-21-07, 02:58 PM

As far as the 'stock' issue, as their stock grows, and their user base grows ... how would you have a better chance of finding the titles you want? Stock would have to grow at a faster rate than userbase, otherwise you're just propogating the same shortages.

And ... Wow ... I don't know how you know all these informed folks. The guys at my Hollywood Video (the manager, specifically) said they had nothing on the horizon for either format. When I mentioned the Blockbuster thing, he said, "Yah, well, we're not Blockbuster" and gave me a grin. *shrug*

I'd like to believe you, but I'm still waiting for the Target thing you were promising. Perhaps you should try not to spout off antecdotal stuff and your own opinions as factual evidence of what the entire market is doing?

Wow, that last sentence sounds threatening in a way... I know a very wonderful masseuse that I would recommend for you to help you out threw these rough times. She's giving a discount if you can prove you are an HD-DVD fanboy ;) That shouldn't be too hard.

And for your information, as the stock of popular titles grow, it increases your chances of getting what you want when you walk into the store after dropping off your online order...That was the point I was trying to make since there will be mroe titles to choose from and as time goes on they can determine the volume of customers renting Blu-Ray and so forth which will increase as time goes on..

And I'm not spouting off anything here and haven't promised anything. Paidgeek who is an insider mentioned the Target going blu comment and he is a trusted insider who was right about Blockbuster going Blu...So it isn't me you should be getting mad at here...Don't shoot the messenger....I'll give you the number of my Hollywood Video's cell phone and you can speak to the manager yourself. However there are corporate owned Hollywood Video's and some on a franchise level. The one I am talking about is corporate owned. It is up to the franchise owner to decide if they want to start the High Def market when it won't make them much moeny in the short term. The manager I spoke too probably has little power over corporate decisions so it doesn't really matter what he thinks anyways..In the long term, it would be to their advantage to stock the format they feel would have the better chance of winning since it would be beneficial to gain loyal customers on a habit of renting Blu-Ray's from them instead of letting their competitors gain all the new customers. This is why Blockbuster's announcement is so HUGE, because it is gathering an installer base early enough in this battle to exponentially grow as an official announcement from HD-DVD comes out saying they surrender....

Lee Stewart

06-21-07, 02:58 PM

i always thought that universal would be the last one...

IMO, Universal will go neutral before WB gives up HD DVD.

darinp2

06-21-07, 03:03 PM

I was wondering if any of the so called objective folks here had anything to say about the rumor that Paidgeek threw around about Target going BD hardware exclusive? I am guessing not! ;)I was hoping you would get an answer to that one from somebody in the know. Did you? My guess is that it was a misunderstanding and only applied to standalones (not the XBOX360 add-on). Maybe a little bit like how you made a claim about "hardware" where I don't believe you've answered my question about whether you were excluding the PS3 for that claim (and where you use "set top hardware" for some things).

--Darin

plazman

06-21-07, 03:15 PM

I was hoping you would get an answer to that one from somebody in the know. Did you? My guess is that it was a misunderstanding and only applied to standalones (not the XBOX360 add-on). Maybe a little bit like how you made a claim about "hardware" where I don't believe you've answered my question about whether you were excluding the PS3 for that claim (and where you use "set top hardware" for some things).

--Darin

1. Yes. I was implying set top boxes for hardware only.

2. Apparently no one at Target is aware of this exclusive deal. Based on what I was told about Target's most recent merchandize order for HD DVD players it does not look like they are planning to discontinue the product. However, as someone on this forum pointed out to me when I mentioned this, that Target sells different products online and at B&M. The person who provided me info has no way on knowing if the orders are B&M or online....just that they have x units sold, x units on hand and x units ordered for the various SKUs.

jdg345

06-21-07, 03:36 PM

the quote is from the studio exec not from videobusiness... all of dual wb releases have sold more on bd. if they choose to go exclusive it will be bd.

Nickerson said that consumers are preparing to embrace the new high-def DVD category, according to Video Business.

Data from Videobusiness is being used to prop up the statement ... so ...

I would expect it to sell a few more copies due to the extra 1 million potential players out there. 1,000 more copies when you have 1 million potential units is pretty easy to hit.

My point was not the 'Dual WB Releases' in as much as the things they have released in HD DVD but not on Blu-ray at all. They have more 'HD DVD Only' releases than they do 'Blu-ray Only' releases.

That said, your OPINION is duly noted ... but it is just that, your opinion.

desmond212

06-21-07, 03:41 PM

Data from Videobusiness is being used to prop up the statement ... so ...

I would expect it to sell a few more copies due to the extra 1 million potential players out there. 1,000 more copies when you have 1 million potential units is pretty easy to hit.

My point was not the 'Dual WB Releases' in as much as the things they have released in HD DVD but not on Blu-ray at all. They have more 'HD DVD Only' releases than they do 'Blu-ray Only' releases.

That said, your OPINION is duly noted ... but it is just that, your opinion.

nope. it is a statement by a studio exec that cites dge data as reported bt videobusiness:

Washington, D.C. (June 20, 2007) -- Blu-ray players are in roughly 1.5 million homes -- five times more than its high-def DVD rival, HD-DVD.

That's according to the research firm Digital Entertainment Group, as reported by Video Business.

DEG says the 1.5 million Blu-ray homes include about 100,000 standalone Blu-ray players with the rest PlayStation 3 game consoles, which include Blu-ray players inside.

The research firm says there 300,000 HD DVD homes in the United States -- evenly split between standalone players and HD DVD XBox 360 attachment drives.

The DEG findings were reported this week by Warner Bros. senior vice president Steve Nickerson at an industry panel discussion of entertainment executives in Los Angeles. Warner Bros. is currently releasing high-def DVDs in both the Blu-ray and HD DVD formats.

Nickerson said that consumers are preparing to embrace the new high-def DVD category, according to Video Business.

“Between April and mid-December, it was a warm-up, and since Christmas, it has been a very sustained level of business,” said Nickerson. "Really, this year is preparing for further consumer uptake of high-def. It will mirror the year 1999 or 2000 for DVD.”

DEG says consumers have spent $55 million on high-def DVD titles to date, with $35 million on Blu-ray movies and $19 million on HD DVDs.

The high-def DVD format war heated up this week when Blockbuster announced that it would carry Blu-ray titles exclusively in 1,450 stores. (It will keep both formats in 250 test stores.)

The decision has been called a tipping point in the war by some industry analysts who monitor the new high-def DVD category.

During the industry panel discussion, executives expressed hope that high-def DVDs will help the industry keep sales rising despite a recent downturn.

“It’s in the very, very early days of our forecasts, but we believe that High-Definition discs will help return consumer video spending to growth,” said Helen Davis Jayalath, a senior analyst video at the research firm Screen Digest.

darinp2

06-21-07, 03:44 PM

My point was not the 'Dual WB Releases' in as much as the things they have released in HD DVD but not on Blu-ray at all. They have more 'HD DVD Only' releases than they do 'Blu-ray Only' releases.And that is part of the catch-22 here. If things continue with Warner catching up as they have said they would (like when Blu-ray has its HD PiP as mandatory) then Blockbuster knows that they will be able to get those titles. And the skewing from Warner is one thing that has allowed HD DVD to not be further behind. If they lose that skewing then it could hurt their side and they need something to make up for it. Maybe Chinese players will or maybe HD DVD will continue the advantage from Warner, but if that advantage from Warner goes away, then that isn't a good thing for HD DVD.

In the:
DEG says consumers have spent $55 million on high-def DVD titles to date, with $35 million on Blu-ray movies and $19 million on HD DVDs.I wonder how much of that $19 million for HD DVD is from titles where it likely has a temporary exclusive and not a real exclusive (a title from an exclusive studio).

--Darin

Lee Stewart

06-21-07, 03:44 PM

Ken G.'s statements concerning the BB announcement (the meat) can be sumed up:

1. What BB did was short sighted

2. HD DVD represents .01% of Universal's rental income

3. HD DVD represents 0% of Universal's profits

plazman

06-21-07, 03:47 PM

You seem to be beating around the bush and trying to change the subject from your original claim that I responded to. Was HD DVD doing better now than the end of Q1. You seem to want to change the subject to something we don't disagree on. The war isn't over. That isn't the discussion and if you keep going there you are just trying to change the subject.

--Darin

Of course HD DVD is doing better now than they were doing at the end of Q1!

1. They have improved their release schedule
2. Improved their hardware position - for set top boxes.
3. Improved their software weekly market share
4. Improved the ratio of sales for format neutral titles from WB and Paramount.

Also, the fact that SI software share being 40% and the current weekly sales ratio also being in the 40% range are coincidental to me. I was pointing out that in the bigger scheme of things that one cannot expect the format war to be won when one side is maintaining a 40% software market - give or take a few % points. The validity of the argument is more important than nitpicking the details of the %.....

My main point was that HD DVD is maintaining a hardware and software marketshare that is more than sufficient for viability vis-a-vis BD. To nitpick whether it was 60% or 40% was not the point.....the idea was to show that HD DVD was doing better than BD on the set top box front and wasn't as far back in terms of software as some may be assuming...at the very least those claiming that the format war has been decided are clearly jumping the gun. In fact BD had a far stronger argument on March 18th than on June 18th. That is my opinion and I have laid out my reasons for it. Anyone is free or agree or disagree.

jdg345

06-21-07, 03:48 PM

nope. it is a statement by a studio exec that cites dge data as reported bt videobusiness:

Washington, D.C. (June 20, 2007) -- Blu-ray players are in roughly 1.5 million homes -- five times more than its high-def DVD rival, HD-DVD.

That's according to the research firm Digital Entertainment Group, as reported by Video Business.

DEG says the 1.5 million Blu-ray homes include about 100,000 standalone Blu-ray players with the rest PlayStation 3 game consoles, which include Blu-ray players inside.

The research firm says there 300,000 HD DVD homes in the United States -- evenly split between standalone players and HD DVD XBox 360 attachment drives.

The DEG findings were reported this week by Warner Bros. senior vice president Steve Nickerson at an industry panel discussion of entertainment executives in Los Angeles. Warner Bros. is currently releasing high-def DVDs in both the Blu-ray and HD DVD formats.

Nickerson said that consumers are preparing to embrace the new high-def DVD category, according to Video Business.

“Between April and mid-December, it was a warm-up, and since Christmas, it has been a very sustained level of business,” said Nickerson. "Really, this year is preparing for further consumer uptake of high-def. It will mirror the year 1999 or 2000 for DVD.”

DEG says consumers have spent $55 million on high-def DVD titles to date, with $35 million on Blu-ray movies and $19 million on HD DVDs.

The high-def DVD format war heated up this week when Blockbuster announced that it would carry Blu-ray titles exclusively in 1,450 stores. (It will keep both formats in 250 test stores.)

The decision has been called a tipping point in the war by some industry analysts who monitor the new high-def DVD category.

During the industry panel discussion, executives expressed hope that high-def DVDs will help the industry keep sales rising despite a recent downturn.

“It’s in the very, very early days of our forecasts, but we believe that High-Definition discs will help return consumer video spending to growth,” said Helen Davis Jayalath, a senior analyst video at the research firm Screen Digest.

And the quote is in an article referencing VideoBusiness ... so they're using data from VideoBusiness to prop up the article you're referencing.

I guess you believe VideoBusiness needs smarter people? Or are they okay in your book?

desmond212

06-21-07, 03:48 PM

And that is part of the catch-22 here. If things continue with Warner catching up as they have said they would (like when Blu-ray has its HD PiP as mandatory) then Blockbuster knows that they will be able to get those titles. And the skewing from Warner is one thing that has allowed HD DVD to not be further behind. If they lose that skewing then it could hurt their side and they need something to make up for it. Maybe Chinese players will or maybe HD DVD will continue the advantage from Warner, but if that advantage from Warner goes away, then that isn't a good thing for HD DVD.

--Darin

wb is holding back bd releases because it knows that bd has a bright future and that they will make more money down the road when install base is bigger. their decision to release hddvd titles early indicates that they don't think that install base will for hddvd will grow significantly.

jdg345

06-21-07, 03:52 PM

And that is part of the catch-22 here. If things continue with Warner catching up as they have said they would (like when Blu-ray has its HD PiP as mandatory) then Blockbuster knows that they will be able to get those titles. And the skewing from Warner is one thing that has allowed HD DVD to not be further behind. If they lose that skewing then it could hurt their side and they need something to make up for it. Maybe Chinese players will or maybe HD DVD will continue the advantage from Warner, but if that advantage from Warner goes away, then that isn't a good thing for HD DVD.

In the:
I wonder how much of that $19 million for HD DVD is from titles where it likely has a temporary exclusive and not a real exclusive (a title from an exclusive studio).

--Darin

Completely agree ... that's why I mentioned WB's next steps after BDJ is more pronounced, whatever those steps may be, should give us a hint as to which way they are leaning. ;)

desmond212

06-21-07, 03:53 PM

And the quote is in an article referencing VideoBusiness ... so they're using data from VideoBusiness to prop up the article you're referencing.

I guess you believe VideoBusiness needs smarter people? Or are they okay in your book?

That's according to the research firm Digital Entertainment Group, as reported by Video Business.

...

The DEG findings were reported this week by Warner Bros. senior vice president Steve Nickerson at an industry panel discussion of entertainment executives in Los Angeles. Warner Bros. is currently releasing high-def DVDs in both the Blu-ray and HD DVD formats.

...

“Between April and mid-December, it was a warm-up, and since Christmas, it has been a very sustained level of business,” said Nickerson. "Really, this year is preparing for further consumer uptake of high-def. It will mirror the year 1999 or 2000 for DVD.”

darinp2

06-21-07, 04:03 PM

In fact BD had a far stronger argument on March 18th than on June 18th. That is my opinion and I have laid out my reasons for it. Anyone is free or agree or disagree.Okay, just to make sure I am clear, if you were an oddsmaker you would put the odds of HD DVD winning today at better you would have put them at the end of Q1. Please correct that if it isn't true. Assuming it is, I think we can agree to disagree on that one.

I am still curious as to what you think Hollywood Video should do here and why. Of course, that you don't have enough information would be fair, but hearing in general terms what you think they should do, and if they were to go with one format for an expansion, which one it should be, would be nice.

--Darin

Bailey151

06-21-07, 04:08 PM

I am still curious as to what you think Hollywood Video should do here and why. Of course, that you don't have enough information would be fair, but hearing in general terms what you think they should do, and if they were to go with one format for an expansion, which one it should be.
Given the current state? If it were me I'd do nothing. It's not much of a market so why give it the floor space? Been a member since DVDs - when the had single spinning rack (for a while I'd seen every DVD made :D ). Wait until they hit bigger numbers, really what's to gain at this point? Keep the floor space for more games (both Wii & PS3 sections will grow for a bit).

Andrew P

06-21-07, 04:09 PM

I think it is shortsighted for any rental company to invest highly in either HD format. In my opinion, Blockbuster is going to lose more money (not because they chose BD over HD DVD), but there is not enough demand to roll these formats out in more markets. Blockbuster is in bad enough financial shape (unless of course they were given a financial incentive). The smart move is to wait it out longer and then jump in once a winner emerges.

jdg345

06-21-07, 04:10 PM

wb is holding back bd releases because it knows that bd has a bright future and that they will make more money down the road when install base is bigger. their decision to release hddvd titles early indicates that they don't think that install base will for hddvd will grow significantly.

Ohhhh ... I see ... so Disney's decision to release only on Blu-ray indicates that they don't think the install base for Blu-ray will grow significantly and they're just waiting to release HD DVD titles until their install base is bigger because they know HD DVD has a bright future?

I didn't realize that the Studios policy was to release more on the format that had a dark future, and less on the format with a bright future. :rolleyes:

I think it's pretty much been established that the only thing holding back WB from releasing all the same titles on both formats is the state of BDJ.

darinp2

06-21-07, 04:12 PM

Given the current state? If it were me I'd do nothing. It's not much of a market so why give it the floor space? Been a member since DVDs - when the had single spinning rack (for a while I'd seen every DVD made :D ). Wait until they hit bigger numbers, really what's to gain at this point? Keep the floor space for more games (both Wii & PS3 sections will grow for a bit).Just to be clear, Hollywood Video already has discs for both formats in some stores (2 of them not far from me). I don't have much idea what percentage of their stores carry these though. Both of the stores I go to grew from one section (maybe 3' wide) on the wall to two at some point along the way (with HD DVDs getting about 5 rows and BDs about 10 rows total).

--Darin

jdg345

06-21-07, 04:12 PM

That's according to the research firm Digital Entertainment Group, as reported by Video Business.

...

The DEG findings were reported this week by Warner Bros. senior vice president Steve Nickerson at an industry panel discussion of entertainment executives in Los Angeles. Warner Bros. is currently releasing high-def DVDs in both the Blu-ray and HD DVD formats.

...

“Between April and mid-December, it was a warm-up, and since Christmas, it has been a very sustained level of business,” said Nickerson. "Really, this year is preparing for further consumer uptake of high-def. It will mirror the year 1999 or 2000 for DVD.”

I guess you believe VideoBusiness needs smarter people? Or are they okay in your book?

Dahlsim

06-21-07, 04:16 PM

Given the current state? If it were me I'd do nothing. It's not much of a market so why give it the floor space? Been a member since DVDs - when the had single spinning rack (for a while I'd seen every DVD made :D ). Wait until they hit bigger numbers, really what's to gain at this point? Keep the floor space for more games (both Wii & PS3 sections will grow for a bit).

Perhaps DVD rentals and sales need a jumpstart of their own? Sure dvd is huge but there's been plenty of reports and concerns of sagging profits even on standard dvd.

Offering high def could refresh interest as people continue to move to new high def displays.

Supermans

06-21-07, 04:17 PM

This is an argument ONLY an HD-DVD supporter can make. I want ALL my movies in high-def and I don't want SD-DVD's any longer. I'd own a dual format player right now if it wasn't for the nearly daily posting on the HD-DVD forum about movies that don't play,stop at certain times, or scratch too easily. But even with all those problems, I'd have an HD-DVD player today if Universal put out Gladiator on HD-DVD. Universal's lack of must have titles pushed me to Blu-Ray.

You do realize that Gladiator is going to come out on Blu-Ray since it is a Dreamworks title..

Lee Stewart

06-21-07, 04:18 PM

wb is holding back bd releases because it knows that bd has a bright future and that they will make more money down the road when install base is bigger. their decision to release hddvd titles early indicates that they don't think that install base will for hddvd will grow significantly.

Really?

How about this . . .

WB is holding back certain BD releases until BD finishes it's specs on BD-J and the other encoding issues because it didn't want to create two seperate Masters for the pressing plants.

Soon as BD is finished - WB will release the movies.

Same thing with certain new releases having different or less features for HD DVD over BD as those additions are to take advantage of Web Enabled content which certain studios are pushing for. ALL HD DVD player have an Ethernet port.

darinp2

06-21-07, 04:21 PM

wb is holding back bd releases because it knows that bd has a bright future and that they will make more money down the road when install base is bigger. their decision to release hddvd titles early indicates that they don't think that install base will for hddvd will grow significantly.Sorry, but I think this is about 180 degrees from reality. Releasing earlier on one format should increase the chance of that format getting enough momentum to lead to a win. I have little doubt that there are people within Warner who want HD DVD to win and understand that getting the best stuff out on HD DVD before BD increases the chances of that happening.

--Darin

jdg345

06-21-07, 04:22 PM

You do realize that Gladiator is going to come out on Blu-Ray since it is a Dreamworks title..

I thought Dreamworks was 'Format Neutral' in that they weren't releasing on either format. When did they go Blu-ray exclusive?

kowhite

06-21-07, 04:26 PM

Sorry, but I think this is about 180 degrees from reality. Releasing earlier on one format should increase the chance of that format getting enough momentum to lead to a win. I have little doubt that there are people within Warner who want HD DVD to win and understand that getting the best stuff out on HD DVD before BD increases the chances of that happening.

--Darin

Well, true, but if you think the format will flourish without your help, why leverage your library to make that win happen rather than take advantage of it when the times comes and not leverage your library for that purpose.

darinp2

06-21-07, 04:33 PM

Well, true, but if you think the format will flourish without your help, why leverage your library to make that win happen rather than take advantage of it when the times comes and not leverage your library for that purpose.I think Warner knows that if HD DVD was or is going to win, they have to be a big part of it. They are too important to it to sit on the sidelines (unless they want it to lose).

--Darin

Supermans

06-21-07, 04:59 PM

I thought Dreamworks was 'Format Neutral' in that they weren't releasing on either format. When did they go Blu-ray exclusive?

Re-read the post I am responding too.... He says the one thing that will make him buy an HD-DVD player is if Gladiator gets released. He assumes that Gladiator will either come out on HD-DVD first and be a delayed Blu-Ray title, or he assumes Gladiator is Universal only thus HD-DVD exclusive which it is not..

rlsmith

06-21-07, 05:50 PM

I have been reading the mainstream press on the Blockbuster announcement.

If anything, the articles are getting stronger in the claims the are making. Here is a headline from the Philadelphia Inquirer today:

Bare Knuckles | Blu-ray lands solid shot

in

http://www.philly.com/inquirer/weekend/20070622_Bare_Knuckles____Bluray_lands_solid_shot.html

The mainstream press is taking a very strong position in this, in contrast to a somewhat guarded response here on the forum (and a lot of "it doesn't matter").

HiddenDepth

06-21-07, 05:51 PM

LOOL!! right now

HD DVD Fanboys -->

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v644/nick64/omgonoz.gifhttp://img.photobucket.com/albums/v644/nick64/omgonoz.gif

and the Blu-Ray Fanboys -->

http://www.vulomedia.com/images/24884ConanandAWKvi1.gif

rlsmith

06-21-07, 05:54 PM

I think Warner knows that if HD DVD was or is going to win, they have to be a big part of it. They are too important to it to sit on the sidelines (unless they want it to lose).

--Darin

There seems to have been a little battle inside of Warners. I gather that WHV prefers HD DVD but TW has told them to play it even, to their chagrin, and that WHV has tried to find ways to tilt toward HD DVD.

Does anyone know if there was an internal negative reaction to shipping Matrix on HD DVD only? The decision to ship Blood Diamond on Blu-ray without IME appears to be something of an experiment.

I would think they would be reading the same Videoscan numbers everyone else can see.

Bob

Neo1965

06-21-07, 06:01 PM

bwclark

06-21-07, 06:21 PM

Neo1965

06-21-07, 06:42 PM

jdg345

06-21-07, 07:21 PM

Re-read the post I am responding too.... He says the one thing that will make him buy an HD-DVD player is if Gladiator gets released. He assumes that Gladiator will either come out on HD-DVD first and be a delayed Blu-Ray title, or he assumes Gladiator is Universal only thus HD-DVD exclusive which it is not..

I read his post ... and I read yours:

You do realize that Gladiator is going to come out on Blu-Ray since it is a Dreamworks title..

You are inferring that Dreamworks is a Blu-ray studio by saying that the title [definitely] will come out on Blu-ray. That is apparently not the case, yet anyone who reads that would likely infer the same thing -- which I guess is what you intended.

Regardless of what you may think, there is a distinct possibility that Gladiator might come out and be exclusive to HD DVD -- we simply don't know yet.

I guess it's the status quo though, just stating your opinions like they're fact and hoping no one calls you on it.

Which reminds me, I'm still waiting for that phone number. I don't need a cellphone, just the store number would be fine.

calvin940

06-21-07, 07:21 PM

There seems to have been a little battle inside of Warners. I gather that WHV prefers HD DVD but TW has told them to play it even, to their chagrin, and that WHV has tried to find ways to tilt toward HD DVD.

I hadn't heard of any such squabble/battle. Any source on that?

Does anyone know if there was an internal negative reaction to shipping Matrix on HD DVD only? The decision to ship Blood Diamond on Blu-ray without IME appears to be something of an experiment.

They aren't shipping Matrix on HD DVD only. They are waiting for the BDJ to be finalized to complete/test the interactivity aspects of the titles before shipping the Blu-ray version.

Cal

HiddenDepth

06-21-07, 08:05 PM

someone here has posted a picture with a doll without arms and 1 leg left, and it said "HD DVD" can some1 send me that pic? or give me the link?

joe_six_pack

06-21-07, 08:25 PM

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v460/goshikisen/blackknight.jpg

Jiffylush

06-21-07, 08:29 PM

"Blockbuster will continue to rent HD DVD titles in the original 250 locations and online, the Dallas-based company said."

Since I use TOTAL ACCESS, the store issue is meaningless to me.....

nuff said! ;)

Wouldn't you like the ability to hand in the movie you just watched for a free HD DVD rental?

I know I hope my local store starts carrying BD, and considering that 1450 stores are getting them I am cautiosly optimistic.

Chau808

06-21-07, 08:32 PM

Warner Bros. has a significant financial stake in the continued use of DVD technology. Warner was part of the consortium that developed DVD, so it holds a portion of the patent and actually collects royalties — about 1.5 cents — from each DVD sold. From this 2004 article in USATODAY. (http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/techinnovations/2004-04-18-dvd-technology_x.htm)

So Warner made around $90,000 from the first week's DVD sales of NATM. No small wonder they are not truly neutral, if Blu-ray takes over they get nothing. Hence their creation of their altruistic TotalHD format. They want to keep their royalties from everyone else's films.

Makes me wonder why Universal's the HD DVD flagbearer. Even Circuit City's getting paid to promote HD DVD but they're doing a pretty bad job of it judging by this week's ad and their Blu-ray disc sale.

Warner clearly doesn't have any faith in HD DVD being able to win this war. They went neutral 5 months before Toshiba even released a player; less than two weeks after Paramount, 2 months after Lionsgate and 10 months after Disney. As a result people in the media were declaring Blu-ray the winner.

Now one and a half years later Blockbuster says they're going to carry Blu-ray. They haven't even started stocking Blu-rays in their other 1450 stores and already some in the media are saying HD DVD's dead.

WayneL

06-21-07, 08:33 PM

It's really a picture of a Sony exec after paying 2 arms and a leg to get PS3 out the door.

Lee Stewart

06-21-07, 08:56 PM

It's really a picture of a Sony exec after paying 2 arms and a leg to get PS3 out the door.

LMAO!

That was great Wayne! :D

briankmonkey

06-21-07, 08:59 PM

It's really a picture of a Sony exec after paying 2 arms and a leg to get PS3 out the door.

out the door and currently working for MS :confused: Would certainly explain the bloddy HD-DVD badge :eek:

Dave Mack

06-21-07, 10:26 PM

Regardless of what you may think, there is a distinct possibility that Gladiator might come out and be exclusive to HD DVD -- we simply don't know yet.

Gladiator will be released by Paramount (Dreamworks catalog is now released by them) Overseas if Uni wants to release it, it would be an HDdvd exclusive.
Here if it's ever released, it'll be on both AFAIK.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlebusiness.aspx?type=media&storyID=nN17209744&from=business

Paramount, which acquired the film library in its recent $1.6 billion purchase of DreamWorks SKG, aimed to defray the cost of the deal by selling the DreamWorks library of 59 titles, including "Gladiator" and "American Beauty."

Under the terms of the sale, Paramount has an exclusive five-year agreement to distribute DreamWorks library films and retains a minority stake in the library as well as an option to buy it back in five years.

You can hope all day that Universal will release it here as an HDdvd exclusive if you want.
I can also hope all day that I'll win the Lottery tomorrow...

:)

John Ballentine

06-21-07, 11:00 PM

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v460/goshikisen/blackknight.jpg
:D :D :D

rlsmith

06-21-07, 11:10 PM

I hadn't heard of any such squabble/battle. Any source on that?

-- Nothing worth repeating that is recent. When Warners decided to go neutral 2 years ago there were articles on this point but I doubt that I can lay my hands on them.

They aren't shipping Matrix on HD DVD only. They are waiting for the BDJ to be finalized to complete/test the interactivity aspects of the titles before shipping the Blu-ray version.

Cal

I meant that they shipped Matrix on HD DVD without concurrently (or nearly concurrently) shipping it on Blu-ray. Obviously, the HD DVD group has made a lot of hay out of this, and many Blu-ray supporters were annoyed that a studio that proudly calls itself "neutral" would have done this. Bill Hunt said that there was a lot of internal discussion at Warners about this, and I wondered if anyone had heard of the fallout.

alfbinet

06-21-07, 11:11 PM

I hadn't heard of any such squabble/battle. Any source on that?

They aren't shipping Matrix on HD DVD only. They are waiting for the BDJ to be finalized to complete/test the interactivity aspects of the titles before shipping the Blu-ray version.

Cal

Just more rumor but I thought initially Warner was solidy in the HD DVD camp until the "Corporate Office" told them to play neutral.

jmpage2

06-21-07, 11:16 PM

Just more rumor but I thought initially Warner was solidy in the HD DVD camp until the "Corporate Office" told them to play neutral.

I doubt that Bill Hunt knows how the discussions at Warner actually went other than what was passed to him 2nd hand fashion via his Warner contacts.

Many studios would probably have been neutral if Sony hadn't made the move of putting a BD player in every PS3 and promising draconion DRM.

alfbinet

06-21-07, 11:30 PM

Ohhhh ... I see ... so Disney's decision to release only on Blu-ray indicates that they don't think the install base for Blu-ray will grow significantly and they're just waiting to release HD DVD titles until their install base is bigger because they know HD DVD has a bright future?

I didn't realize that the Studios policy was to release more on the format that had a dark future, and less on the format with a bright future. :rolleyes:

I think it's pretty much been established that the only thing holding back WB from releasing all the same titles on both formats is the state of BDJ.

We already know (for those of us that have POTC that resume play doesn't work) for this state of the art disc in BDJ. Major cries with this "non-function" with HD DVD but not with the state of the art POTC. I am still waiting from the Sony "Insider" as to this is what we can expect from future "advanced authored BD discs." No one seems to answer this question why resume does not work with POTC. More problems ahead? Paidgeek? I expect no answer.

Neo1965

06-21-07, 11:54 PM

news articles covering the blockbuster decision
Blockbuster Verdict could end format war (http://tvweek.com/news/2007/06/blockbuster_verdict_could_end.php)
HD DVD shrugs off Blockbuster move (http://www.bit-tech.net/news/2007/06/21/hd_dvd_shrugs_off_blockbuster_move/1)
BLOCKBUSTER CHOOSES BLU-RAY, HD DVD DOOMED? (http://www.filmthreat.com/index.php?section=headlines&Id=3709)
Blockbuster strikes blow for Sony with expansion of Blu-ray stocks (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/d5b20754-1e02-11dc-89f7-000b5df10621.html)
Blockbuster backing Blu-ray a body blow for HD-DVD (http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=31845479-08fd-4022-b873-0f6630772db9&k=67670)
Blockbuster to Favor Blu-Ray, Dealing Blow to Rival Format (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118213960772438828-search.html?KEYWORDS=blockbuster&COLLECTION=wsjie/6month)
From Financial Times to wall street journal. The most respected publications in the world appear to be picking up this report, and the titles are sometimes over the top.

If this is not a really slow news week and BDA just caught a break, then this is a well orchestrated well-planned attack. Either way, HD DVD PG seem to be surprised at how the MSP is reacting to this and have not (yet?) responded to this strongly enough.

The weekend entertainment sections will probably carry this in the weekend leisure section. By next week, things might settle down, but this week is going to be ugly for the HD DVD PG.

IBD : Blockbuster Sides With Blu-ray In Major Setback For HD DVD (http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=17&artnum=1&issue=20070618)
CNN : Blockbuster backs Blu-ray (http://edition.cnn.com/2007/TECH/biztech/06/18/blockbuster.blu.ray.ap/index.html)
Foxnews : Blockbuster to Favor Blu-Ray High-Definition DVDs for Rental (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,283774,00.html)
MercuryNews : AP: Blockbuster to favor Blu-ray HD disc (http://www.mercurynews.com/search/ci_6167641?nclick_check=1)
Seattle Times : Blockbuster pushing Blu-ray DVD format (http://archives.seattletimes.nwsource.com/cgi-bin/texis.cgi/web/vortex/display?slug=blockbuster18&date=20070618&query=blu-ray)

And so on... All the major newssites & newspapers in major cities of North America seem to carry this. Whoever planned this must be chuckling as she/he flips through another page of Machiavelli's "The Prince".

Perhaps time for another Matrix-like coup from Warner to pump some adrenaline into the red format?

mobius

06-22-07, 12:20 AM

What difference does it make if they do or they don't have one of these "megahits"

The HiDef Disc marketplace is SO small it is pathetic!

SID - sales of HD movies - $55 million

SID - 500+ HD titles released

SID - average sales revenue per movie released = $110,000

When one of these "megahits" comes to DVD, that revenue is done 35 minutes of selling time versus a whole year!

No matter how insignificant the sample size, those "megahits" seem to have played some part in Blockbuster's decision. When you couple several big movies like Spiderman, POTC, or Casino Royale with PS3 owners who have few worthwhile games to play you arrive at Bluray's movie sales lead IMO.

BTW, I don't disagree with your assessment. In fact, I think it illustrates how short-sighted Blockbuster's decision is. Of course, that's just my angle as a paying customer. ;)

Blockbuster just lost an HDDVD and Bluray consumer.

bdizzle

06-22-07, 12:22 AM

mobius

06-22-07, 12:58 AM

Excellent Point. What happens to Blu-Ray sales/rentals after Pirates 3 is released and no longer available this Christmas? Or Spiderman 3, Chronicles of Narnia, Ratatouille, Fantastic 4 - Silver Surfer, Night at the Museum, or the re-release of Cars?

What happens after mega-hits like the Simpsons Movie is released and next years sure-fire hit sequel to Chronicles of Narnia.

I agree entirely, it's only a matter of time when Blu-Ray has no megahit to release.

Face it, outside of Spider-man, POTC, and Cars, there isn't much on that list that smacks of 'hit sequel' or 'blockbuster'. The Simpson's could blow up or bust. Chronicles did quite well, but that's no guarantee that the sequel will equal the original's success. F4SS is doing well, but that's no guarantee that it has 'legs'.

The point that I'm making is that movies like Pirates, LOTR, Star Wars, and Spider-man are format sellers. The others, not so much when player and movie prices are still priced out of reach for average consumers.

jdg345

06-22-07, 06:21 AM

Gladiator will be released by Paramount (Dreamworks catalog is now released by them) Overseas if Uni wants to release it, it would be an HDdvd exclusive.
Here if it's ever released, it'll be on both AFAIK.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlebusiness.aspx?type=media&storyID=nN17209744&from=business

Paramount, which acquired the film library in its recent $1.6 billion purchase of DreamWorks SKG, aimed to defray the cost of the deal by selling the DreamWorks library of 59 titles, including "Gladiator" and "American Beauty."

Under the terms of the sale, Paramount has an exclusive five-year agreement to distribute DreamWorks library films and retains a minority stake in the library as well as an option to buy it back in five years.

You can hope all day that Universal will release it here as an HDdvd exclusive if you want.
I can also hope all day that I'll win the Lottery tomorrow...

:)

Thank you! Great Stuff! ;)

sleepmd

06-22-07, 08:07 AM

Neo1965

06-22-07, 08:21 AM

Sorry for coming in late to this discussion. I've read through and I don't think this has been discussed.

Does anybody else think Blockbuster's decision was based on the physical properties of the discs. I am format neutral and I have been receiving both HD-DVDs and BRs from BB Total Access. I have had no problems with the BR discs, but about 25% of the HD-DVDs have been damaged and unplayable. The BR discs I have received have all looked pristine and new while the HD-DVDs have looked like someone has run steel wool across the surface. Don't BR discs have a scratch coating similar to the one used on eyeglasses? I have had a similar experience purchasing used PS3 games. I have never received a scratched disc.

If I had a business where my bottom line depended on how many times I could rent a disc, and the resalability of that disc, I would also choose the more durable discs. Perhaps if HD-DVD added a surface coating to their discs, BB would be more interested in them. Could it be something that has nothing to do with content, capacity, or availability of players will decide the format war?
Their official reason was that they tracked the rentals in the test launch at those 250 stores and found that BD rentals were more than 70% of the total, this made them decide to proceed with only BD in their stores in the major metropolican centers. IE: whichever way you look at it, Blockbuster has decided that the blue format has a better chance to prevail and they are doing their rollout only with the blue format.

As for other theories, it is hard to tell, but given Blockbuster B&M depends on revenue/shelf-area even more than electronics B&M, it makes sense for them to be the most worried about shelf area taken up with dual formats.