This poll was originally posted one year ago (ran from mid-June through end-of-June in 2006):

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It's interesting to see where we've gone since then. At the time, the biggest prediction was that dual-format players would take over the market, and I'm as surprised as anyone that it hasn't happened yet (personally, I ended up building an HTPC with both BluRay and HD DVD, and couldn't be happier, except for irritation that PowerDVD Ultra is still "not ready for prime time"). Instead, nothing much seems to have been resolved, one way or the other. I wonder if the landscape has changed over the last year, so I'm posting the exact same poll for comparison.

Universal players continue to cost too much to gain widespread adoption. Toshiba's constant pricedrops will ensure this continues to be the case. As long as two separate devices do each format better and cost less, there's no reason to go universal player.

A universal device with superior format support for both formats and complete with all features, including lossless audio, must be released at a price less than two devices added together. So far, these two formats are too niche to sell enough to lower the cost on such a unit. And the last I heard, the combo drives they're using to make these units cost more than $1k by themselves.

And the last I heard, the combo drives they're using to make these units cost more than $1k by themselves.

That in itself is surprising to me. Call me paranoid, but I wonder if the manufacturers are deliberately manipulating the prices to make universal players less cost effective. I mean, in terms of the raw drives, you can buy an SD-S802A for $70 on eBay and a BluRay drive for $400-$500 various places. So, why is a combo drive so expensive? I guess, because it can be.

I'd prefer only having one combo drive in my HTPC, but it's not so bad having both a Sony BRU-100A and a Toshiba SD-H802A using two drive bays, plus I can burn BluRay disks if I want. Somewhat less wife-friendly, but much cheaper.

Betamax Vs. VHS: One format will "win" and the other will completely disappear.

Yup, Blu-ray FTW!

Sadly, the pron industry will be the ones to end the format wars...just like they did with vhs and beta.

While I voted "Betamax vs. VHS" (both times!) it is important to see that there is a difference.

Beta was, contrary to many people's view, a successful product. It made money. It lasted for 15 years. VHS made even more money and lasted for 30 years. Today, we deride Beta as a failure without remembering that it lasted a long time.

In the present case, if the format war ends within the next year, I predict that the losing format will disappear very quickly. There will not be a long tail of use. People who bought the losing format will pretty quickly buy the surviving one, replace the disks they care about, and move along.

While I voted "Betamax vs. VHS" (both times!) it is important to see that there is a difference.

Beta was, contrary to many people's view, a successful product. It made money. It lasted for 15 years. VHS made even more money and lasted for 30 years. Today, we deride Beta as a failure without remembering that it lasted a long time.

In the present case, if the format war ends within the next year, I predict that the losing format will disappear very quickly. There will not be a long tail of use. People who bought the losing format will pretty quickly buy the surviving one, replace the disks they care about, and move along.

Indeed, Beta was superior enough to survive in the business world with production studios using it years after its "death". There is 0 need for hd-dvd. Its got less space, less bandwidth and can do nothing that blu-ray cant do. Plus, blue is the color of the sky! Go sky!

Beta had a following overseas. Where is HD-DVD leading?

For all the negative connotations of Beta, people forget that Betamax vs VHS really was evenly matched in terms of CE supporters. We have JVC parent, Matsushita, along with RCA (back when they were giants) on one side.

Sony, Toshiba, Pioneer, Aiwa and NEC were among CE companies on the other side. Betamax was also based on the U-matic standard which was already a std for professional video equipment.

Ignoring rebadging, and counting only companies doing their own R&D, what is amazing this time is that Toshiba decided to launch a player with essentially all the japanese CE already entrenched in BD. When you think about it, taking on the entire country's CE industry takes a lot of guts. And it's amazing that they brought it this far on such a lopsided battlefield.

The rapid decline in HD DVD player prices did force the smaller players such as Hitachi, Sharp and others to delay completion of their prototype. So Toshiba still did a lot of damage to the BDA companies' plans.

We should be thankful for the quick introduction of cheap players and cheap movies in the price war.

We should be thankful for the quick introduction of cheap players and cheap movies in the price war.

I agree that prices have dropped more quickly as a consequence of the format war than they would have otherwise. "T'is an ill wind that blows no good."

With a single format, prices would have been higher last year and would have stayed higher for a bit longer. HOWEVER, penetration would have been much more, there would have been a lot more content available, and as a consequence, competition among all companies would have led to meaningful price reductions based not on marketing strategies but rather on economies of scale of production.

What we have now is companies stretching to make the largest subsidies that they can make in order to keep up the competition. While this looks like a boon to the consumer, it can quickly turn into a stalemate if both companies just tire of fighting each other and both give up. "Two bald men fighting over a comb" as someone said.

Most companies involved and all consumers would have been better off with a single format IMHO.

Sadly, the pron industry will be the ones to end the format wars...just like they did with vhs and beta.Porn is not a deciding factor in this age of rampant internet pr0n. (Congrats for your first post since 2004 btw!)