I see a lot of discussion from both sides here about movie availability, or the prices of HD Disc hardware, but the one thing I do not see discussed too often, seems to me to be a key point in this "format war"......

What are people going to view these next generation HD discs on ????

What percentage of people in the US even own a 16:9 High Definition TV ????

Until people own a HD TV, even the average Joe knows he is wasting his time and money picking sides in a disc format War (to purchase something he cannot even view in all its glory).

To me, one of the key factors in the struggle for great acceptance of any next generation optical disc, is the rapidly dropping costs of HD TVs and projectors.

I think increased sales of 16:9 HD TVs will accelerate next Generation disc sales, more than any other single factor, and I'm guessing this is why both sides understand this Fall and primarily this Christmas Season will be crucial to either side's HD optical disc sales and growth.

-- Cain

Hopefully BD and HD DVD are helping to sell more HDTVs. A little more than a year ago the only HD you got was what was broadcast (and for a handful of people, D-Theater. ;) ). These new formats give prospective HDTV buyers more incentive to buy a new TV IMO. Although more cross promotion would certainly help.

Everything's suppose to be a virtuous cycle
More HD Eye Candy available --> More HDTVs bought --> More movies sold --> More highdef players sold --> More HD eye candy available -->......etc

Or as they used to say before the format war destroyed everything that is good and decent in the western hemisphere : A rising tide raises all boats.

That's why these CE companies are backing Blu-ray. They don't get mad royalties like Toshiba and Sony/Phillips. (I don't count Toshiba and HD DVD among this trend because Toshiba really just wants to guarantee the royalties for disc sales continue to be theirs either with DVD in a stalemate situation or with HD DVD in a situation where Red wins.) Instead, the CE devices want to use these new high def players to lure people into 1080p HDMI HDTV's and full-on receivers with spanking new 1.3 HDMI connections and PS3's or Xbox 360's and better speakers, etc.

They see this as a way to tempt you to buy anew the things you already have. Double dipping, I suppose you might call it if you're an infrequent updater.

What percentage of people in the US even own a 16:9 High Definition TV ???? -- Cain

That's a very valid point. There are some places now giving players away with the purchase of a HDTV. Still, how popular is HD TV?

We made the choice so it isn't unheard of. Judging from personal past experiience acceptance time will be 1-2 years.

What are people going to view these next generation HD discs on ????

What percentage of people in the US even own a 16:9 High Definition TV ????


This isn't a rhetorical question, by the way. 24 million households have an HDTV. That's about one in four (U.S. households, not people, of course). It's beyond "early adopter" territory now. Out of my immediate family, my parents and three grown siblings (with their own places) out of four have HDTV's, none of us are affluent though we all make a fair wage, and only I myself would be considered a "techie/early adopter" type. In my closest circle of friends, three households out of five have HDTV's. None of us are overly wealthy, and again, I'm the only techhead (in fact, I've been involved in setting up or optimizing the setup of all the HDTV's I've counted here so far, natch); it's just that when it comes time to buy a new TV for one's own apartment living room or when one's old one breaks down, no-one's buying an SDTV anymore.

I see a lot of discussion from both sides here about movie availability, or the prices of HD Disc hardware, but the one thing I do not see discussed too often, seems to me to be a key point in this "format war"......

What are people going to view these next generation HD discs on ????

What percentage of people in the US even own a 16:9 High Definition TV ????

Until people own a HD TV, even the average Joe knows he is wasting his time and money picking sides in a disc format War (to purchase something he cannot even view in all its glory).

To me, one of the key factors in the struggle for great acceptance of any next generation optical disc, is the rapidly dropping costs of HD TVs and projectors.

I think increased sales of 16:9 HD TVs will accelerate next Generation disc sales, more than any other single factor, and I'm guessing this is why both sides understand this Fall and primarily this Christmas Season will be crucial to either side's HD optical disc sales and growth.

-- Cain


HDTV sales is brisk and increases at every year steadily.


http://www.parksassociates.com/press/press_releases/2005/hdtv-1.html

And most of these people will either be content to be watching SD programming (increase in viewing area seems to be the benefit they're willing to pay premium bucks for) or to watch HD via cable/satellite subscriptions. Getting J6P to buy a whole new format and re-purchase old movies on HD-DVD will be a monumental struggle in and of itself, one that a competitively priced HD player can quickly overcome. In this regard HD-DVD still has an A-Bomb it can drop and pull ahead of Blu-ray. The question is what's the ideal time to detonate this one-time monster? :cool:

Guys - I hate to burst your bubble but sales of HDTV's are not the indicator. This article shows that yes - millions are buying HDTV's but are they seeing HD on their HDTV?

The answer is . . . . no.

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070122/0205964.html

...What are people going to view these next generation HD discs on ????

What percentage of people in the US even own a 16:9 High Definition TV ????
...
Well, actually there were lots of discussion on this already. However, the point I have made several times, and nobody really disputed it, is the fact that the biggest benefit of HDTV, besides watching HDTV programming, actually make DVDs they already have looking so much better, this is especially true on the most popular HDTVs (50" or less, 720p). SDTV simply does not allow DVDs to reach true potential. PQ improvement of HDM on these HDTVs are simply not worth the high cost of entry for mainstream consumers. Even on my 57" 1080p TV, I am often amazed how DVDs look.

So having HDTVs does not automatically mean people would need HDM players, there is simply not enough value for most people.

So having HDTVs does not automatically mean people would need HDM players, there is simply not enough value for most people.

People buy 22 inch rims costing over 1k where I live. My point is 600 dollars isn't that much to a lot of people.

600 dollars today was what 300 dollars was 10 years ago.

Then you have the flipside of this discussion.

My parents have THREE HDTV's in their house and not a single HD source to feed them *banghead*

Guys - I hate to burst your bubble but sales of HDTV's are not the indicator. This article shows that yes - millions are buying HDTV's but are they seeing HD on their HDTV?

The answer is . . . . no.

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070122/0205964.html

That was going to be my point. What is the percentage of people owning HDTVs and of that percentage WHAT PERCENTAGE ARE ACTUALLY WATCHING/RECEIVING HD? My 82 year-old mom just bought a 32" widescreen DLP for her bedroom. She only gets standard def from Dish Network (and uses the tvs "full screen" option to eliminate black bars) and is more than happy with that. What she likes is the slimness of the tv and its "looks."

I think the big point people are missing is the average joe WILL NOT re-buy all or most his/her SD DVD's on HD so they will not be running out to buy a HD DVD or Blu-Ray player anytime soon even tho they might own a HDTV

The average Joe is tired of buying the same DVD over and over and over again

This very topic is discussed a lot in the other HDTV forums (HDTV Programming and HDTV reception hardware).

The fact is HDTV displays are already in a significant number of homes (over 25 million now) and that is growing fast as the links above show. Even though up to half of them may not actually be receiving HDTV signals on these displays, the fact is that if even a tiny fraction of the existing HDTV households and new HDTV buyers bought into High Definition DVD in the next year it would be a HUGE increase over current sales.

So the penetration of HDTV displays isn't really a problem at all. There are much more important factors affecting the success of High Definition DVDs.

That was going to be my point. What is the percentage of people owning HDTVs and of that percentage WHAT PERCENTAGE ARE ACTUALLY WATCHING/RECEIVING HD? My 82 year-old mom just bought a 32" widescreen DLP for her bedroom. She only gets standard def from Dish Network (and uses the tvs "full screen" option to eliminate black bars) and is more than happy with that. What she likes is the slimness of the tv and its "looks."


This has also been my point all along. People are not buying HDTV's because of they can get HD content. The majority are buying them because

A.) Its not easy getting an SD TV anymore,
B.) They love the slim form factor,
C.) Now that 32 sets are obtainable for 500-600 its a nice upgrade over there current 27" sets.

I would bet real money that if you ranked the features that the HD content would be 4 or 5th on the list at best. Keep in mind that its not that people don't understand its basically they don't really think its that important. So I don't see this as being important to next gen disc formats.

As has been stated before, just buying an HDTV does not mean you have any interest in HD media at all. I think HD in general right now is too confusing and it keeps getting worse. Take HDMI for example. It was supposed to be the "one cord does everything" solution and has been plagued with problems due partially to poor tech and copy protections. Not to mention, it has gone though, what, 4 revisions now? I know a few people who have HDTV's and only one of them even has HD cable. None of them are interested in HD media really. What I hear all the time is "ya it looks and sounds great, but I am not buying all my movies again". That is going to be a popular mentality for a long time, even with just one format.

As has been stated before, just buying an HDTV does not mean you have any interest in HD media at all. I think HD in general right now is too confusing and it keeps getting worse. Take HDMI for example. It was supposed to be the "one cord does everything" solution and has been plagued with problems due partially to poor tech and copy protections. Not to mention, it has gone though, what, 4 revisions now? I know a few people who have HDTV's and only one of them even has HD cable. None of them are interested in HD media really. What I hear all the time is "ya it looks and sounds great, but I am not buying all my movies again". That is going to be a popular mentality for a long time, even with just one format.

Bingo! . . . Folks - we have a winner!

Esteemed members,

We have taken a very simple device . . . .

And complicated the hell out of it!

TV - bring it home - plug it in - plug in the coax cable and BINGO - a picture.

Now we have how many connections? 4, 5?

Some people who use HDMI have found the handshake problem - they have to turn their cable box on first before they will see an image. Others - it is the reverse.

If they hated "the black bars" now they have two different kinds to hate! Letterbox and Pillarbox.

And more than half - way more than half, attach their cable/sat box output to the TV and jump around with the joys of HDTV . . . . with an SD box.

And the HD players . . . this has become a nightmare!

Some discs play - some don't.

Some don't play on a specific player until you add special firmware updates . . . .

Firmware upgrades and updates. Everyone knows what a software upgrade is. What the hell is a firmware upgrade - they have never seen this before.

30 to 40 seconds is the time delay between turning it on and having the draw open.

HDMI - the one cable for everything - only how come I keep amswering posts at another forum on "how come when I plug it into my HDMI receiver - I don't get any sound?"

"Well is your HDMI receiver a pass through switcher, or is it one of the new HDMI 1.3 compliant models?"

What the hell have we done?

Esteemed members,

We have taken a very simple device . . . .

And complicated the hell out of it!

TV - bring it home - plug it in - plug in the coax cable and BINGO - a picture.

Now we have how many connections? 4, 5?

Some people who use HDMI have found the handshake problem - they have to turn their cable box on first before they will see an image. Others - it is the reverse.

If they hated "the black bars" now they have two different kinds to hate! Letterbox and Pillarbox.

And more than half - way more than half, attach their cable/sat box output to the TV and jump around with the joys of HDTV . . . . with an SD box.

And the HD players . . . this has become a nightmare!

Some discs play - some don't.

Some don't play on a specific player until you add special firmware updates . . . .

Firmware upgrades and updates. Everyone knows what a software upgrade is. What the hell is a firmware upgrade - they have never seen this before.

30 to 40 seconds is the time delay between turning it on and having the draw open.

HDMI - the one cable for everything - only how come I keep amswering posts at another forum on "how come when I plug it into my HDMI receiver - I don't get any sound?"

"Well is your HDMI receiver a pass through switcher, or is it one of the new HDMI 1.3 compliant models?"

What the hell have we done?

Why on earth would you work all day to defend this!

Oh, because these issues aren't actually that important to you.

I have the following equipment:

Tivo S3, PS3, DG810, LVM-42w2

The Tivo and the ps3 connect to the dg810 via HDMI (2 cables total) the dg810 connects to the LVM-42w2 via HDMI (1 cable).

Surround sound (5.1 in-wall and in-ceiling) was a lot more difficult to wire and install, yet you don't seem to be complaining about that.

edit: I can't personally relate to the multitude of playback problems and slow loading or ejecting, because I have a ps3. Although I do remember not being able to play the new version of Snow White in my DVD player a few years ago.

Why on earth would you work all day to defend this!

Oh, because these issues aren't actually that important to you.

I have the following equipment:

Tivo S3, PS3, DG810, LVM-42w2

The Tivo and the ps3 connect to the dg810 via HDMI (2 cables total) the dg810 connects to the LVM-42w2 via HDMI (1 cable).

Surround sound (5.1 in-wall and in-ceiling) was a lot more difficult to wire and install, yet you don't seem to be complaining about that.

edit: I can't personally relate to the multitude of playback problems and slow loading or ejecting, because I have a ps3. Although I do remember not being able to play the new version of Snow White in my DVD player a few years ago.

It appears you enjoy "dogging" me but you really don't seem to understand what it is that I am posting and it sure isn't because I have not made myself clear.

I was answering the thread title and the discussion of mass adoption of HDTV and the problems it is having.

I have clearly posted issues that the average consumer is facing or will be facing with adoption of HDTV and HD players.

I know YOU are a savy consumer because you are here at AVS. What about the other 300 million consumers that aren't?

There are some places now giving players away with the purchase of a HDTV. Still, how popular is HD TV?



Almost every store has a deal now where if you buy an HDTV you get a '1080i HDTV-Ready DVD Player '. So even people who are buying new HDTVs are going to say, why buy HD-DVD or Blu-Ray when my DVD player is already HD and it plays the 100+ movies that I already have!

It appears you enjoy "dogging" me but you really don't seem to understand what it is that I am posting and it sure isn't because I have not made myself clear.

I was answering the thread title and the discussion of mass adoption of HDTV and the problems it is having.

I have clearly posted issues that the average consumer is facing or will be facing with adoption of HDTV and HD players.

I know YOU are a savy consumer because you are here at AVS. What about the other 300 million consumers that aren't?

You mean the 300 million that only know about HD DVD and Blu-ray because something was on the news about Blockbuster backing Blu-ray? :)

I don't think I am dogging you, it is just that I don't know how valid a point the complexity of HDTV when we have yet to get out to the saavy consumers at this point. Once we get to all the people out there who like this stuff we can worry about the "unwashed masses yearning to watch hd" (I am trademarking that).

In the future this stuff will be simpler, and HDMI could help with that simplicity eventually.

I have experienced handshake issues first hand so I know the frustration, but at this point we are all early adopters and before the non-early adopters get involved it should be a lot simpler.

Just to add the trend that I've seen, I know nobody personally that has adopted either HD format. One uncle has an HD projector, and none of our friends have HD televisions. Of the immediate coworkers (I can't account for the entire company) of mine that do have HD sets, which is very few, only one has HD cable/sat subscriptions. The others bought new televisions for their size (slimness generally), and not for their capabilities. They don't know, nor do they care, about what they're missing. Of course, I'm 50% Dutch, and most of my family is 100% Dutch. :P

You mean the 300 million that only know about HD DVD and Blu-ray because something was on the news about Blockbuster backing Blu-ray? :)

I don't think I am dogging you, it is just that I don't know how valid a point the complexity of HDTV when we have yet to get out to the saavy consumers at this point. Once we get to all the people out there who like this stuff we can worry about the "unwashed masses yearning to watch hd" (I am trademarking that).

In the future this stuff will be simpler, and HDMI could help with that simplicity eventually.

I have experienced handshake issues first hand so I know the frustration, but at this point we are all early adopters and before the non-early adopters get involved it should be a lot simpler.

Before I answer THIS post let me ask you a simple question;

Did you read the article I posted above from yahoo?

People buy 22 inch rims costing over 1k where I live. My point is 600 dollars isn't that much to a lot of people.

600 dollars today was what 300 dollars was 10 years ago.
$600 is still a lot of money for mainstream consumers, no matter who you cut it, otherwise PS3 would be flying off shelf :) Besides, there is really no need to buy a HDM player to go with such a small TV, that is precisely my point.

BTW, who is paying 1K (US$ I assume) for a 22" TV ? I just bought a 24" 1080p LCD computer display (which does have component/composite/S-video inputs, so work nicely as a TV monitor) for less than $600.

Before I answer THIS post let me ask you a simple question;

Did you read the article I posted above from yahoo?

I have now read it yes, and in all fairness it is from information gathered in December 2006 from a cable industry group who's job it is to increase cable subscribers.

I wonder if they have been successful in their goal of getting more of the HDTV owners to pay for HDTV services?

The average person is not interested in buying all his old collection on HDM, but rather getting NEW movies on HDM. People are forgetting that. Unless they're something more "collectable" like Disney movies.

Also, the war is between HD-DVD and Bluray, not between HDM and SD. So regardless of whether or not HDM becomes mainstream, theres still a war between those 2 HDM formats.

And let us not forget, if marketing can sell Bose and Monster products, then surely marketing can sell products that actually offer improvements anyone can see/hear.

As has been stated before, just buying an HDTV does not mean you have any interest in HD media at all. I think HD in general right now is too confusing and it keeps getting worse. Take HDMI for example. It was supposed to be the "one cord does everything" solution and has been plagued with problems due partially to poor tech and copy protections. Not to mention, it has gone though, what, 4 revisions now? I know a few people who have HDTV's and only one of them even has HD cable. None of them are interested in HD media really. What I hear all the time is "ya it looks and sounds great, but I am not buying all my movies again". That is going to be a popular mentality for a long time, even with just one format.

People are interested in HD content but if their experience is like mine (went from a $200 GE 27" crt to a 37" 720p vizio LCD) they will likely be blown away by watching 480p content on their TVs (DVDs, even the old xbox) and amazed at how much better their current equipment looks on the new TV. They may eventually start watching more HD content, but it's going to take a while, and the format war & $300+ price tags on hardware is going to keep them at bay. Especially if they _just_ plunked down $500 for that tv set... they're not going to plunk down $200 for a new "DVD" (high def media) player right away.

Christmastime this year will spur people to take the plunge depending on whatever deals Walmart et al come up with, but otherwise there's not a whole lot of reason right now (as in major holidays, etc.) for anyone to spend $300+ on a player when they coughed up double that for the TV (for father's day, etc.).

You mean the 300 million that only know about HD DVD and Blu-ray because something was on the news about Blockbuster backing Blu-ray? :)

I don't think I am dogging you, it is just that I don't know how valid a point the complexity of HDTV when we have yet to get out to the saavy consumers at this point. Once we get to all the people out there who like this stuff we can worry about the "unwashed masses yearning to watch hd" (I am trademarking that).

In the future this stuff will be simpler, and HDMI could help with that simplicity eventually.

I have experienced handshake issues first hand so I know the frustration, but at this point we are all early adopters and before the non-early adopters get involved it should be a lot simpler.
Well said.

I didn't grasp how much (pointless) FUD this Blockbuster announcement had spread across the whole country this week until a coworker - avowedly in pursuit of "a twenty dollar DVD player for my son" - asked me with some concern in his voice how Blockbuster's Blu-ray announcement was going to affect his purchase.

If I were an emotional man, I would have openly wept in frustration. :eek:

50% in 5 years
99% in 10 years

The average person is not interested in buying all his old collection on HDM, but rather getting NEW movies on HDM. People are forgetting that. Unless they're something more "collectable" like Disney movies. .

Actually for NEW movies they are interested in buying ones that play on the TV in the minivan, in the family room, the bed-room, the home theater room, and that they can lend to their brother-in-law. For VHS it was easy to replace one player. Now you need to replace 7. And heck, why buy a 1080p movie when that new DVD player says it plays all of the current SD movies at 1080i.


Also, the war is between HD-DVD and Bluray, not between HDM and SD. So regardless of whether or not HDM becomes mainstream, theres still a war between those 2 HDM formats. .
The real war is between all HDM formats (not just Blu-Ray and HD-DVD), but none will ever completely win. My bet is as drive space becomes cheaper, movie downloads will become more popular and start to take over, just like MP3s have. People will carry around HD movies on their 100 GB flash drives. I already know people who copy every DVD they buy to their HTPC because it is more convenient.

And the big secret is that the studios don't want a winner. They want you to buy a movie on VHS, SD-DVD, HD-DVD, Blu-Ray, and every other format available.

Actually for NEW movies they are interested in buying ones that play on the TV in the minivan, in the family room, the bed-room, the home theater room, and that they can lend to their brother-in-law. For VHS it was easy to replace one player. Now you need to replace 7. And heck, why buy a 1080p movie when that new DVD player says it plays all of the current SD movies at 1080i.

Exactly, I've brought this up in a few threads - it is an issue if anyone expects mass adoption of an evolutionary format.

I think the OP's point was that given the current price difference that most won't be interested & that more interest would occur if the media prices were close(er). Folks might pay $5 - $7 extra for the HD version, but $13.95? Doubtful.

Which raises another point (since Disney movies are on topic) - what happens when the avg consumer sees/realizes that it would take 2 purchases to make the disc playable throughout the house?

Example -

Can't wait to get the Bridge for the kid............damn, that means it will ONLY play in one machine.............or I can buy both............or I can just buy the SD DVD & it plays everywhere.

I'm not a fan of combo discs but I can see this as being an issue for many potential customers.

Esteemed members,

We have taken a very simple device . . . .

And complicated the hell out of it!

TV - bring it home - plug it in - plug in the coax cable and BINGO - a picture.

Now we have how many connections? 4, 5?

Some people who use HDMI have found the handshake problem - they have to turn their cable box on first before they will see an image. Others - it is the reverse.

If they hated "the black bars" now they have two different kinds to hate! Letterbox and Pillarbox.

And more than half - way more than half, attach their cable/sat box output to the TV and jump around with the joys of HDTV . . . . with an SD box.

And the HD players . . . this has become a nightmare!

Some discs play - some don't.

Some don't play on a specific player until you add special firmware updates . . . .

Firmware upgrades and updates. Everyone knows what a software upgrade is. What the hell is a firmware upgrade - they have never seen this before.

30 to 40 seconds is the time delay between turning it on and having the draw open.

HDMI - the one cable for everything - only how come I keep amswering posts at another forum on "how come when I plug it into my HDMI receiver - I don't get any sound?"

"Well is your HDMI receiver a pass through switcher, or is it one of the new HDMI 1.3 compliant models?"

What the hell have we done?

Agree 100%. It has become worse not better and if trends are any indication its not going to get better for a long time. The PC industry (Including MS) has desensitized consumers to these aspects and thus lowered the bar for what has become acceptable.

As for being dogged don't sweat it we heard what you had to say. Don't be baited into an argument that will go no where. :)