There's been some interesting discussion as of late regarding the future of HD content. Who knows maybe blu-ray and hd-dvd have a common enemy in downloable media. I personally believe that downloadable HD is the way of the future ( Although I may be wrong). Either way I've heard compelling arguments from both sides. Chime in, let me know what you think.

for the next 5 yrs or so dvd will reign... i think the disc format will eventually take over but its influence will be greatly reduced thanks to downloadable content.

Given the current environment, I would say that once players reach below $100 at Walmart users will finally decide the format war. My guess is that the format war will be decided in the x-mas of 2008, with opening salvo's this upcoming x-mas season.

Downloads won't be supreme for the simple reason of bandwidth and quality. Very few sites offer quality video and with broadband speeds not increasing 10x year over year, I don't see how people are going to put up with a multi-hour (day?) download for a movie.

Eventually discs will be irrelevant, but it'll probably happen in 10-15 years, more than enough time for a DVD replacement to take hold.

-Splints

Blu-ray will prevail.

Given the current environment, I would say that once players reach below $100 at Walmart users will finally decide the format war. My guess is that the format war will be decided in the x-mas of 2008, with opening salvo's this upcoming x-mas season.

Downloads won't be supreme for the simple reason of bandwidth and quality. Very few sites offer quality video and with broadband speeds not increasing 10x year over year, I don't see how people are going to put up with a multi-hour (day?) download for a movie.

Eventually discs will be irrelevant, but it'll probably happen in 10-15 years, more than enough time for a DVD replacement to take hold.

-Splints

I kind of agree with you but my fear is by the time either HD optical format takes off downloadable media will be in full swing.

Blu-ray will prevail.

The future is commencing just as the movies show. Any attempts to do anything with your content will result in a large "Access Denied" flashing warning. Further attempts of utilizing your content in fair use manner will result in your player banning you from video playback for an ascending amount of time.

Managed Copy will be popular ...just input your Social Security number and pay the monthly fee.

DVDs will be banned and cease to exist.

The Government will criminalize any attempts to enjoy art beyond what the studio deigns...oops sorry that's DMCA 1998 ;)

Broadcast TV will penalize you unless you remain seated and watch their commercials. Channel surfing during commercial break will be outlawed.

All children will be implanted with RFID chips that store how many certain commercials they watch...points are collected and redeemable at your local MacDonalds for gifts.

Sounds fun. Hello dystopia.

I don't know why people seem to think downloadable content is some kind of Godsend. Its the work of the devil, plain and simple. You think hdcp is bad? Wait until media companies completely control playback as well as the movies themselves. Imagine having to use their programs to play back movies, with all kinds of ****** restrictions.

The internet is choking on youtube, the bandwidth doesn't exist for people to download hd video and audio like the people who believe in it think will happen. Hell, look at all the people still on dialup because they don't use the internet much and dialup is dirt cheap.

Downloadable HD is a joke people.

Its the work of the devil, plain and simple. You think hdcp is bad? Wait until media companies completely control playback as well as the movies themselves. Imagine having to use their programs to play back movies, with all kinds of ****** restrictions.



You just described Blu-ray.

I replied in the other thread but since you started this one I will just move it here. :)


Dude, I wouldn't bet on this. If this were the case then why are MP3's killing CD sales? I would bet that itunes made more money last year than some record labels.

More than anything else people like things that are "easy", and guess what, downloads are easy. And they are the future. If anything prohibits this it will be bandwith issues not human nature.


You got the "easy" part right, what you forgot was the "FREE" part. Itunes is actually doing dismal. Its a pretty simple concept.. Itunes didn't kill of CD sales Napster killed of CD sales. The demographic that does not care about quality will also not pay for downloads. If you think it will be any different for HD-Downloads your sadly mistaken. HD-Downloads is and will forever remain a niche market just like itunes is. The only way HD-Downloads will become mainstream is when it can be stolen by thieves. Blu-Ray might also remain a niche market or it might turn in to the next DVD.

"People who thought that iTunes would save the music business now have to sober up and realize that's not true," said Josh Bernoff, the author of the study and a principal analyst at Forrester. "Twenty songs per iPod are not enough to save the industry."
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/12/13/BUGERMUJ1C1.DTL

I picked the second choice. VOD type stuff won't even have the tech-related capability to be a mainstream product for at least 8 years and then you have to teach J6P about how to use PC-related systems such as downloading/hard-drive management/network set-up/data transfer/etc and pray that he "gets" all that while being convinced he doesn't need a nice physical movie collection any more. It's not as easy a sell as people seem to think.

I vote for #2 with a disclaimer though, I believe without a push or change to one single format (ie end of the war) that HD media will languish in niche status for years against SD. I don't necessarily even have faith in dual-format players should both formats retain their equal advantages for a while. Even with hybrid players, the product will still have niche hurdles to overcome with two formats.

I do have faith though that, if one format is obtained and the studios/manufacturers do certain somewhat smart but obvious things, HD media can eventually overthrow SD.

SD is ten years old, HD-everything is the new buzz word, and I think people will be willing to embrace HD media as the one last physical format - should the providers involved play their cards right.

I don't know. I don't think there is enough data to be sure. I think that downloadable content of some kind is inevitable and perhaps even desirable. I want to think that the primary means of owning high def movies will remain optical media.

<snip>VOD type stuff won't even have the tech-related capability to be a mainstream product for at least 8 years<snip>

I vote for #2 with a disclaimer though, I believe without a push or change to one single format (ie end of the war) that HD media will languish in niche status for years against SD. I don't necessarily even have faith in dual-format players should both formats retain their equal advantages for a while. Even with hybrid players, the product will still have niche hurdles to overcome with two formats.

I do have faith though that, if one format is obtained and the studios/manufacturers do certain somewhat smart but obvious things, HD media can eventually overthrow SD.

SD is ten years old, HD-everything is the new buzz word, and I think people will be willing to embrace HD media as the one last physical format - should the providers involved play their cards right.

Your post is a good one for me to work from and what I say should not be construed to be directed at you personally.

Where is patience these days? Red pill - Blue pill, pshaw. Have a Ritalin pill.

HD physical media has a long road ahead of it. I do think HD media is going to be successful, but it is going to have an immensely difficult time in making SDDVD go away.

I think I will still be buying SDDVDs many years from now - at least I hope I can still buy them. Just how may thousand of titles that have been released on SDDVD?

Just how quickly can these thousands of movies be remastered for HD media?
Is it even cost justifiable for studios to remaster every single movie released on SDDVD for release on HD media?

When are movies such as Italo Bravo Gente, Talvisota, or the German 50s version of Stalingrad going to be remastered in HD media (substitute your own eclectic catalog favorites)?

If I am still breathing, I think 10 years from now it is highly likely that I'll still be watching my SDDVD copies of these movies on whatever upconverting disk media player I have at that time.

Let me reiterate. I think HD media is going to be successful (better than niche), but won't be nearly as successful as SDDVD. If you care about catalog titles, then you better hope that SDDVD isn't dead in even the next 10 years.

One also must consider that market penetration of HD displays will continue to preclude any possiblility of HD media overtaking SDDVDs for a good deal of months to come.

Are many of us HD snobs? One must consider the possibility that a segment of the market considers SDDVD to be good enough and won't budge on adoption until their SDDVD player breaks and HD media is comparable in cost to SDDVD.

I agree with you AA that VOD isn't going to seriously challenge HD media for years.

Not sure about physical media dying off as long as people are willing to shell out for it. Time will tell...

I don't know. I don't think there is enough data to be sure. I think that downloadable content of some kind is inevitable and perhaps even desirable. I want to think that the primary means of owning high def movies will remain optical media.

i agree with you that owning media will be the realm of discs but the rent model (netflix and blokcbuster) downloads are inevitable. and i think you are going to see more and more people go the rent route for most of their movies and buy a select few.

DVD will most likely still be the dominant format but I think HD disc will still be around.

Anyone who hoenstly think HD via download is coming soon is living in a different world than me...or they refuse to see reality.

The correct answer is all of the above. I don't see why any particular means of transmission has to obsolete another. We've been groomed for nearly 10 years to buy and rent movies on little shiny discs and it has been the best thing that ever happened to the studios. Do people really believe that there won't be at least a notable minority (if not majority) that will want to purchase their content on disc for the forseeable future?

The studios currently have many methods and windows to offer their content to consumers. Theatrical, pay per view, DVD sale and rental, VOD, hotels, planes, etc... So long as margins are good on a particular format why would they feel the need to discontinue it, especially if it will affect volume and revenue?

Personally, I'm currently paying $18-35 per title for HD DVD and Blu-Ray. I'll never pay even the lower end of that range for SD DVD or some king of download. I can't imagine they won't continue to feed this niche and pocket the high margins. This either/or scenario doesn't make sense to me at all. Not that it matters at all, but I don't believe SD DVD will ever be supplanted by HD media. Too many people feel SD DVD is good enough.

How many polls are we going to have this week?

How many polls are we going to have this week?

Maybe you should start a poll to find out?:D

Maybe you should start a poll to find out?:D

Funny!

Have all you pro-downloaders seen this article? It is only a week old and tells the facts about VOD:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6452274.html

Take a moment to read it. It has a panel of experts in the VOD field discussing the future of VOD.

Downloadable HD content is the way of the future but Optical Media is here today and for the next couple of years.

DVD will still reign supreme for quite a while. By the time it's lifespan is at an end, there will be an optical format better than HD DVD and Blu-Ray.

Never downloads unlike TV. Not everybody has highspeed internet. Or has the need for it. Many places still don't offer internet fast enough to make downloading eazy and fast.

Downloads will never match the level of disc. The extras overall pq just can be matched.
HD will have to be compressesd to meet bandwith needs..


But I'd say HD optical will reach atleat 30% of the market in 5years. But DVD will remain king for ahwile

i agree with you that owning media will be the realm of discs but the rent model (netflix and blokcbuster) downloads are inevitable. and i think you are going to see more and more people go the rent route for most of their movies and buy a select few.

I agree- I'll go further and say that downloading VOD, when it does become ubiquitous, will cater to the masses who value the convienence associated with downloading, more than they value audio and video quality. Thats why downloads will probably be heavily compressed, 720p with visible artifacts here and there.

Enthusiasts who want the highest quality will continue to pursue HD on discs- whether they are blu or red or both.

hopefully at that time, the studios will still cater to a small market.

Not that it matters at all, but I don't believe SD DVD will ever be supplanted by HD media. Too many people feel SD DVD is good enough.

You can't stop progress. When the prices come down, you can bet HD will overtake SD. Have you been to a Walmart lately? They have a 90% ratio of HDTV to SD. I believe they are completely phasing out SD TV inventory. It won't happen overnight, but HD media will overtake SD. It happens with every new technology, why would this be different?

Art

Not enough poll options. How about "BR and HD will co-exist the same way DVD and CD do, or DVD+R and DVD-R do, or USB and Firewire do..." The dual player will be the end of the format whining, er I mean war...

You can't stop progress. When the prices come down, you can bet HD will overtake SD. Have you been to a Walmart lately? They have a 90% ratio of HDTV to SD. I believe they are completely phasing out SD TV inventory. It won't happen overnight, but HD media will overtake SD. It happens with every new technology, why would this be different?

Art

True enough. You cant stop progress.

What makes it different will be the need to remaster a very high percentage of catalog titles

You can't stop progress. When the prices come down, you can bet HD will overtake SD. Have you been to a Walmart lately? They have a 90% ratio of HDTV to SD. I believe they are completely phasing out SD TV inventory. It won't happen overnight, but HD media will overtake SD. It happens with every new technology, why would this be different?

Art

People don't have to buy a new HD library of movies just because it exists. Especially if they have most of their favorites on perfectly good SD DVDs. They may buy the hardware and new releases in HD as time goes by and prices become affordable, but there are a lot of people that will keep their analog TVs and equipment as long as they can because they see no reason to upgrade. CD's didn't get supplanted by the superaudio formats did they?

If you download 200GB in a month (8 BDs perhaps), Comcast's Net Abuse department will flag your account for abuse. Two flaggings will result in a termination of your account and a one year ban.

Under those conditions, they will really need to improve the size of the HD files, and/or get Comcast to call off their dogs for downloading to be feasible.

HD files are doable in good quality at around 4.5-8gb via x264.

HD VoD is already here in the UK, Virgin Media already have HDTV on demand, including movies. As to SkyHD, although they do a weak version of it, where they upload concent to your box. There's also things like BT Vision and the major telecomms operator here is rolling out a 10bn network upgrade.

Presently, unless ISP's change their stance or regulation steps in, VoD will happen with local cable operators rather than the internet.

VoD is already there... but you need to be subcriber to the cable.. witch cost about 60$ Without the Internet) for a 'normal package' What they should do is a version with only VoD, rent or pay a min fee per month like 10$ or less..and voila..

Will Blu-ray or HD-DVD Matter In a Few Years ?

blu-ray yes, HD-DVD probably not

Blu-ray & HD DVD Have A New Challenger HD VMD

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117967471.html?categoryId=2525&cs=1

Blu-ray & HD DVD Have A New Challenger HD VMD

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117967471.html?categoryId=2525&cs=1

It's been a few months and VMD hasn't really picked up any steam, the last thing we need is a third format :eek:

What are these useless polls/threads? You could discuss this until you are blue in the face and in the end it will mean nothing. When information comes from the proper authority you can have a proper discussion then. Useless threads like these drown threads with meaningful information.

Well, you could always choose to ignore it :rolleyes:.

I don't forsee downloads taking off any time soon...maybe not ever..the country isn't wired enough for that kind of download speeds etc..

It's a toss up between hi-def and SD DVD...if hi-def DVD becomes so cheap that almost equals SD..then sure it will be a hi-def DVD world...if it stays higher and SD stuff keeps getting lower and lower in price of software and players, then SD will probably rule for several years. America just LOVES super cheap media of all their fav movies and TV shows and SD offers that 1000x over what hi-def DVD is offering right now...and SD keeps on building and building it's library with 100's and 100's of movies and TV shows every year.

They matter otday and that is all that matters...Where else can you get quality HD media?? No where..

I guess I still feel as if downloadable Hi-def is the way of the future. Technology doesn't seem to sit still for too long.

I don't forsee downloads taking off any time soon...maybe not ever..the country isn't wired enough for that kind of download speeds etc..

It's a toss up between hi-def and SD DVD...if hi-def DVD becomes so cheap that almost equals SD..then sure it will be a hi-def DVD world...if it stays higher and SD stuff keeps getting lower and lower in price of software and players, then SD will probably rule for several years. America just LOVES super cheap media of all their fav movies and TV shows and SD offers that 1000x over what hi-def DVD is offering right now...and SD keeps on building and building it's library with 100's and 100's of movies and TV shows every year.

Gordon:

Please explain to me what is the incentive for the studios to offer HDM at prices that equal DVD? And try to skip DRM as it really doesn't matter.

HDM costs more to produce and manufacturer then DVD. (TONS of DVD's being sold for 99 Cents at any one of the Dollar General stores) They (the retailers) just lowered the bargin bin priced DVD catalog titles from $5.50 to $3.98.

We have over 77,000 movie titles (and another 100,000 special interest titles) on DVD . . . and we have about 700 HD titles. . . in 18 months.

Sure the CEM's want HD because they can no longer make money selling DVD players.

But the studios wanted HDM for it's higher profit margins. If they give that up what is the point of having HDM?

Oh and "several years?" DVD is 10 years young - the most successful home video format in history. Don't you think that it will keep going strong for the next 10 years.

Gordon:

Please explain to me what is the incentive for the studios to offer HDM at prices that equal DVD? And try to skip DRM as it really doesn't matter.

HDM costs more to produce and manufacturer then DVD. (TONS of DVD's being sold for 99 Cents at any one of the Dollar General stores) They (the retailers) just lowered the bargin bin priced DVD catalog titles from $5.50 to $3.98.

We have over 77,000 movie titles (and another 100,000 special interest titles) on DVD . . . and we have about 700 HD titles. . . in 18 months.

Sure the CEM's want HD because they can no longer make money selling DVD players.

But the studios wanted HDM for it's higher profit margins. If they give that up what is the point of having HDM?

Oh and "several years?" DVD is 10 years young - the most successful home video format in history. Don't you think that it will keep going strong for the next 10 years.

Look most of America gobbles up cheap DVD stuff...period...we all see it every day played out at WM, BB, CC, etc....that's the way they like it...unless all the SD stuff just stops production suddenly they will always gravitate to these bargains.....Most folks are willing to pay a premium for some things because they perceive that they are getting some great bang for the buck.....right now paying $30 for an old catalog movie on Blu/HD to them isn't a good bang for the buck deal I'd bet.....now if a day comes that they can pay $7.99 for "Trading Places" SD OR say $10.99 for a hi-def DVD, I'd say you will see a BUNCH of folks move over to hi-def.

Oh and yes several years can easily be 10 years if the SD catalog grows and grows every week and movie prices fall..and players stay WELL under $100 for a good upconverter...

I really think hi-def DVD is a cool new technology, but prying the armfuls of cheap SD movies and players out of shoppers arms and having them instead pay double for hi-def TODAY is gonna be a tough sell....given with the new $198 Toshiba the pain of jumping into it isn't as bad as last year, but it still is double what many pay now...EX: numerous name brand "near HD" upconverting players go for 60-70-80 dollars or so...and movies..well just go to WM and look at the HUNDREDS of movies going for under $10....heck now they are selling a BUNCH of movies that have 2 and THREE movies bundled for $10-15 tops.

I'm all for hi-def DVD, but trying to get America (those not in our HT world) to see the bang for buck will be a bit of a tough battle for a while more.

Look most of America gobbles up cheap DVD stuff...period...we all see it every day played out at WM, BB, CC, etc....that's the way they like it...unless all the SD stuff just stops production suddenly they will always gravitate to these bargains.....Most folks are willing to pay a premium for some things because they perceive that they are getting some great bang for the buck.....right now paying $30 for an old catalog movie on Blu/HD to them isn't a good bang for the buck deal I'd bet.....now if a day comes that they can pay $7.99 for "Trading Places" SD OR say $10.99 for a hi-def DVD, I'd say you will see a BUNCH of folks move over to hi-def.

Oh and yes several years can easily be 10 years if the SD catalog grows and grows every week and movie prices fall..and players stay WELL under $100 for a good upconverter...

I really think hi-def DVD is a cool new technology, but prying the armfuls of cheap SD movies and players out of shoppers arms and having them instead pay double for hi-def TODAY is gonna be a tough sell....given with the new $198 Toshiba the pain of jumping into it isn't as bad as last year, but it still is double what many pay now...EX: numerous name brand "near HD" upconverting players go for 60-70-80 dollars or so...and movies..well just go to WM and look at the HUNDREDS of movies going for under $10....heck now they are selling a BUNCH of movies that have 2 and THREE movies bundled for $10-15 tops.

I'm all for hi-def DVD, but trying to get America (those not in our HT world) to see the bang for buck will be a bit of a tough battle for a while more.

Well we do think alike - I must agree. With the exception of "a while more." My take is never.

The only way to combat this is to stop DVD production all together and only make HDM. I do not see that happening.

DVD will still reign supreme for quite a while. By the time it's lifespan is at an end, there will be an optical format better than HD DVD and Blu-Ray.

optical is sooo 2009! wait until our millennium gets into it's early teenage years and all these shiny little disks will go the way of 8track(yes some of you will hold onto them with your cold dead hands). blueray and hd dvd are only something to make these companies some money so they can finish up their research on the next best un scratchable 10 terabyte fingernail sized media/data storage device. no more video stores and music stores just vending machines with oodles of penny sized movie and music files with 79 hrs of useless extras and directors, producers, grips, intern commentaries

There's been some interesting discussion as of late regarding the future of HD content. Who knows maybe blu-ray and hd-dvd have a common enemy in downloable media. I personally believe that downloadable HD is the way of the future ( Although I may be wrong). Either way I've heard compelling arguments from both sides. Chime in, let me know what you think.

It effects rentals, and Netflix is already offering a download service. It does not effect the HDM disk industry, people who want to buy the movies, they want the case, the inserts, the extras, everything. (I do anyway).

It will be a while before HDM is replaced, and when it is replaced my money is on flash memory technology. Flash drives + flash drive players. :P

It effects rentals, and Netflix is already offering a download service. It does not effect the HDM disk industry, people who want to buy the movies, they want the case, the inserts, the extras, everything. (I do anyway).

It will be a while before HDM is replaced, and when it is replaced my money is on flash memory technology. Flash drives + flash drive players. :P

I could see how this makes sense, my wife downloads music from itunes and still buys the cd, although she nevers listens to it. She likes to have somthing in tangible.

Blu-ray will prevail.

The future is commencing just as the movies show. Any attempts to do anything with your content will result in a large "Access Denied" flashing warning. Further attempts of utilizing your content in fair use manner will result in your player banning you from video playback for an ascending amount of time.

Managed Copy will be popular ...just input your Social Security number and pay the monthly fee.

DVDs will be banned and cease to exist.

The Government will criminalize any attempts to enjoy art beyond what the studio deigns...oops sorry that's DMCA 1998 ;)

Broadcast TV will penalize you unless you remain seated and watch their commercials. Channel surfing during commercial break will be outlawed.

All children will be implanted with RFID chips that store how many certain commercials they watch...points are collected and redeemable at your local MacDonalds for gifts.

Sounds fun. Hello dystopia.


ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Just because you can't bend the inventions and investments of others you play the conspiracy card. Yeah, the man is out to get you

Could this be the future?

http://www.wired.com/gadgets/miscellaneous/news/2007/10/ion_memory

Researchers have developed a low-cost, low-power computer memory that could put terabyte-sized thumb drives in consumers' pockets within a few years.

Thanks to a new technique for manipulating charged copper particles at the molecular scale, researchers at Arizona State University say their memory is, bit-for-bit, one-tenth the cost of -- and 1,000 times as energy-efficient as -- flash memory, the predominant memory technology in iPhones and other mobile devices.

"A thumb drive using our memory could store a terabyte of information," says Michael Kozicki, director of ASU's Center for Applied Nanoionics, which developed the technology. "All the current limitations in portable electronic storage could go away. You could record video of every event in your life and store it."

additional links:
http://www.asu.edu/feature/nanoscale.html
http://asunews.asu.edu/20071023_nanotech

SPECULATION:

Next big product to use HDM . . . An HD DVR with either CBL attach or SAT attach that will allow you to record something then burn it to HDM. This is already being sold in Japan.

It is now legal in the USA to sell CBL boxes - They use CableCards - which just need some more time to iron out the bugs and get them 2 way communicating so On demand and Menus work properly.

I am sure the providers SAT will welcome something like this also because you have to get the HD serivce which both providers count as revenue - with no cash outlay on their part like supplying STB's for small monthly payments.