In all the threads I have read since the BlockBuster anouncement I have seen nothing mentioned about any comments or feedback from Toshiba.

I own and love both formats but I dont want to see HD DVD get its butt kicked by Sony,,,,, I wish both formats would both survive,,,,, the format war and the competition is really good for us consumers.

For us the format war is like being the only child of parents getting divorced, both parents are giving the kid more and more and tring to win its love, meanwhile the kids makes out like a bandit,,,,, yes,, my parents got divorced when I was young and I got spoiled rotten from it,,,,, it was great !!!!!!!!!!!

Anyhow, back to Toshiba, has anyone emailed Toshiba and asked them what they intend on doing to counter the BlockBuster deal.

So far I have not seen one word from Toshiba and nothing on the HD DVD website.
Is Toshiba just guna lay down like a dirty dog and take a beating ????

Com'on Toshiba, do something !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Davyo

Didn't Warren Lieberfarb say something about the importance of network blah blah?

The format war is holding back movies from the consumers, and consumers from the movies. I say good riddance to either format, just let one die already.

The format war is holding back movies from the consumers, and consumers from the movies. I say good riddance to either format, just let one die already.

I agree, IMO anyone that thinks the format war is good is naive.

I agree, IMO anyone that thinks the format war is good is naive.

Also agree. It served its purpose by lowering prices faster than otherwise. Now it's a limiting factor.

Clearly hddvd is not going to win at this point, and just needs to go.

http://www.cursesandepithets.com/photos/created/surrender.jpg
Bow before the Smurf Zerg !
http://www.mushroomvillage.com/sitepics/2007setlg.jpg

In all the threads I have read since the BlockBuster anouncement I have seen nothing mentioned about any comments or feedback from Toshiba.

I own and love both formats but I dont want to see HD DVD get its butt kicked by Sony,,,,, I wish both formats would both survive,,,,, the format war and the competition is really good for us consumers.

For us the format war is like being the only child of parents getting divorced, both parents are giving the kid more and more and tring to win its love, meanwhile the kids makes out like a bandit,,,,, yes,, my parents got divorced when I was young and I got spoiled rotten from it,,,,, it was great !!!!!!!!!!!

Anyhow, back to Toshiba, has anyone emailed Toshiba and asked them what they intend on doing to counter the BlockBuster deal.

So far I have not seen one word from Toshiba and nothing on the HD DVD website.
Is Toshiba just guna lay down like a dirty dog and take a beating ????

Com'on Toshiba, do something !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Davyo

Many consumers won't adapt EITHER format until it is clear that one is dead. People DO NOT want to gamble their money on a product that might be obsolete in the near future. They need to be sure there is only one format before investing in it. I don't see either format going anywhere until one dies. Last year Bluray was the underdog and now the tables have turned and HDDVD is the underdog. Anything can happen at this point. This war can be changed with one announcement. I just want one format to die already so we can hopefully have mass adoption of one format.

Many consumers won't adapt EITHER format until it is clear that one is dead. People DO NOT want to gamble their money on a product that might be obsolete in the near future. They need to be sure there is only one format before investing in it. I don't see either format going anywhere until one dies. Last year Bluray was the underdog and now the tables have turned and HDDVD is the underdog. Anything can happen at this point. This war can be changed with one announcement. I just want one format to die already so we can hopefully have mass adoption of one format.

Hear! Hear! "Trench warfare" benefits absolutely no one (except DVD manufacturers and others who don't want to see success of ANY physical HD players).

I agree, IMO anyone that thinks the format war is good is naive.

Sort of like thinking a fully functional blu-ray player will ever be made if hd-dvd goes away? Or that we'll ever actually see managed copy?

Ken Graffeo (spelling?) did have something to say on the matter, not sure if it was in print or in an interview on a news program.

Basically saying that it was too early to make a decision like this, anyone want to dig that up?

Didn't Warren Lieberfarb say something about the importance of network blah blah?

It was funny how he had no comeback or defense to the studio support point and used that instead.

In all the threads I have read since the BlockBuster anouncement I have seen nothing mentioned about any comments or feedback from Toshiba.



What should they say? Why? Do you need someone to hold your hand? Outside of AVS, its not that big of a deal.
J

Ken Graffeo, speaking on behalf of the North American HD DVD Promotional Group, said his camp first got wind of Blockbuster's plans at the end of last week.

"What this is right now really is a nonevent," said Graffeo, vice president of high-def strategic marketing for Universal Home Entertainment. "They are keeping both formats in the online store and keeping it in the 250 test stores. Rental is not where the business is right now. People who are buying their players are primarily purchasing titles."



http://www.dailynews.com/business/ci_6173299

Many consumers won't adapt EITHER format until it is clear that one is dead. People DO NOT want to gamble their money on a product that might be obsolete in the near future. They need to be sure there is only one format before investing in it. I don't see either format going anywhere until one dies. Last year Bluray was the underdog and now the tables have turned and HDDVD is the underdog. Anything can happen at this point. This war can be changed with one announcement. I just want one format to die already so we can hopefully have mass adoption of one format.
Keep preaching that old song but don't forget to add they won't accept an evolutionary format for the current prices either. The $499 Sony player will set on shelves as will $30 dollar combo HD-DVDs.

Let the way go on until the players are $250 (or less) and the discs are 19.99 at launch.............then one can die (& I couldn't care less which).

http://www.dailynews.com/business/ci_6173299

This Blockbuster thing is not keeping me from buying HD DVDs..that's what I do, I buy HD DVDs and rent SD DVDs...although it has inspired me to cancel BB and go to Netflix.

I think the blockbuster decision caught Toshiba by surprise. All that Toshiba could come up with that day was a Sony battery fire from a month ago.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8PRPTQ00.htm

Also, I believe Sony dropped their blu-ray player pricing knowing that BB was going with Blu-ray.

I agree, IMO anyone that thinks the format war is good is naive.

Yeah, because without the format war everyone was running out to the store to buy $799 Samsung and $999 Sony BD players. :rolleyes:


The funny thing is that my local Blockbusters carried neither, and anything we've wanted to rent in the last few months has come from Xbox Live. This announcement changed absolutely nothing for my purchasing habits.

Someone come get me when Warner or Paramount decide to switch to Blu-ray exclusivity. Then I'll start to think about buying an overpriced movie player.

I agree with most of the informed posters above; the format war is killing adoption of either format. Yes, more people would indeed be willing to go out and spend $700 on a player if they knew it was the only format out there. Just like people did with DVD. Get real, this is how new electronics products always work: there are always higher priced units that sell to early adopters as status symbols; that helps drive demand for the product as well as let companies recoup R&D. Then, as demand builds and manufacturing costs come down prices fall as sales volume rises. Instead prices are falling without building up demand, because no one in the public will care (including many potential early adopters of the wealthier-but-not-hardcore variety) until there is only one format.

Please, please let one format die so we can move forward with hidef optical media adoption!

ottscay, you summed up why I find these format-war supporters as enemies of home theater. They really are for screwing us all. Well, everyone that isn't vested heavily in hddvd. The sooner hddvd dies off, the better for everyone.. Even most of the hddvd adopters.

I picked up an Oppo 981 last year due to this format war. Until there is a clear winner, many more movies are available and all studios are producing in one format then I will just wait and enjoy my existing movie experience.

I picked up an Oppo 981 last year due to this format war. Until there is a clear winner, many more movies are available and all studios are producing in one format then I will just wait and enjoy my existing movie experience.

When did you buy the Oppo and how much was the A2 at the time? (or was it even available)

I think many hope that people in the market for the Oppo would pay a little more for upconverting and the abilitly to playback HD DVDs.

The North American HD DVD Promotional Group says Blockbuster's decision is skewed by the success of films released by Blu-ray studios in the first three months of the year. The group says that four weeks into its aggressive spring marketing campaign, HD DVD is significantly ahead in the consumer electronics player category, capturing 60% of all HD set-top players sold. At the same time, HD movie sales for HD DVD reached an all-time high for the month of May, exceeding 75,000 movies the last week of May alone. Overall high definition sales hit a record last week as well, hitting $5.2 million in consumer spending, 31% higher than the previous record for the two formats.

From the current edition of the Multichannel News HD update newsletter.
http://www.multichannel.com/

ottscay, you summed up why I find these format-war supporters as enemies of home theater. They really are for screwing us all. Well, everyone that isn't vested heavily in hddvd. The sooner hddvd dies off, the better for everyone.. Even most of the hddvd adopters.


lol, you BD fanboys are something special. I don't think BD can become anything more than a niche format for the PS3 owners.


I don't recall Laser Disc taking off because there was no other format around.

There have been plenty of techs that have failed and it wasn't because they had a similar rival technology out there that confused the consumer.

If HDM fail it's because the public doesn't want them and nothing more.

I agree with most of the informed posters above; the format war is killing adoption of either format. Yes, more people would indeed be willing to go out and spend $700 on a player if they knew it was the only format out there. Just like people did with DVD. Get real, this is how new electronics products always work: there are always higher priced units that sell to early adopters as status symbols; that helps drive demand for the product as well as let companies recoup R&D. Then, as demand builds and manufacturing costs come down prices fall as sales volume rises. Instead prices are falling without building up demand, because no one in the public will care (including many potential early adopters of the wealthier-but-not-hardcore variety) until there is only one format.

Please, please let one format die so we can move forward with hidef optical media adoption!
BS - plain & simple. The PS3 sales suck why again? Oh that's right because the price is too high, few want a $600 game AND media player. Yet this very same market will jump into an evolutionary technology @ $750 or more? Yeah, right - what a load of manure.

Prices falling too fast - too damn bad, bummer for the CEs. And if it's too fast for some others will fill the market - happens every time.

The reverse is true - there's little interest in a evolutionary technology @ current prices.

But hey, it's all good - let one format die & take the DVD long term adoption life cycle.................there's little Apple or Microsoft would like better.

Ken Graffeo touched the subject a little yesterday with some european press the link can be found HERE (http://www.bit-tech.net/news/2007/06/21/hd_dvd_shrugs_off_blockbuster_move/1)

I disagree with most here. If there was only one format, it would take years before the general public bought into it because of higher pricing. To those that want one format: prices would be stagnant for a much longer time with no effort by content providers to provide the quality (DVD was like this for the first few years).
This is going to take much more time before an outright winner is announced.
Just because there are big announcements in favor of Blu-Ray doesn't mean the HD DVD group is sitting on their asses with their thumbs in their mouths.
My opinion is that Toshiba tested the waters with low priced players (and consumers bit). To me it showed Toshiba that price is a huge factor in this war. Toshiba and the HD DVD promotion group is probably right now coming up with a plan to exploit this to their favor long term (all of this is my opinion).

After reading the article in the link posted above, I would love to see where these people (from both sides) get their numbers from (about the HDTV attachment numbers to the PS3).

to the ppl who think w/o a format war sony would charge 799 for the lowest end blu-ray player, you tend to forget the winning format still has to convince consumers it's worth upgrading to from dvd.

there's no easier to way to tell your consumers sd dvd is fine for them by setting your bd player/software prices sky high.

prices will continue to fall with or without a format war. the war did make prices and advancements come faster, but at this point we need one single format and more price reduction to start mass adoption.

I agree with most of the informed posters above; the format war is killing adoption of either format. Yes, more people would indeed be willing to go out and spend $700 on a player if they knew it was the only format out there. Just like people did with DVD. Get real, this is how new electronics products always work: there are always higher priced units that sell to early adopters as status symbols; that helps drive demand for the product as well as let companies recoup R&D. Then, as demand builds and manufacturing costs come down prices fall as sales volume rises. Instead prices are falling without building up demand, because no one in the public will care (including many potential early adopters of the wealthier-but-not-hardcore variety) until there is only one format.

Please, please let one format die so we can move forward with hidef optical media adoption!

you're right about one format should die, but definitely wrong about ppl's willingness to spend $700 on a player. one single format is needed, but prices need to continue to fall to build demand. yes ppl did buy dvd players at $500 or so when it first came around, but they are now $30-$50 and that is what ppl see right now when they compare to blu-ray. no one is going to say, "hey, dvd players were $500 when they first came out, i guess $600 or $700 doesnt sound so bad." i wouldnt have bought my ps3 if i didnt catch a 60gig version on ebay for $100 below retail.

The HD-DVD group never seems to realize that this war is about perception and nothing to do with facts. They have taken the nobler but less successful approach. CES 2007 is a good example. The blockbuster deal is another. They point to an entirely correct fact that rentals account for less than one percent of their revenue, when if fact they really should come out swinging. More hardware price cuts aint going to do it. People arent going to buy a $30 dollar player if it is *perceived* as obsolete.

http://www.bit-tech.net/news/2007/06/21/hd_dvd_shrugs_off_blockbuster_move/1

This war can be changed with one announcement.


As long as it's not like The Matrix or something huge like that.

When did you buy the Oppo and how much was the A2 at the time? (or was it even available)

I think many hope that people in the market for the Oppo would pay a little more for upconverting and the abilitly to playback HD DVDs.

If you are looking for a good upconverting HD-DVD player, you are talking XA2 not A2. That costs about the same as the Samsung which performs just as well.

http://www.bit-tech.net/news/2007/06/21/hd_dvd_shrugs_off_blockbuster_move/1
Wow that's pretty embarrassing on Graffeo's part.

"Only the 250 stores that carry HD DVD are where poeple will be renting HD discs from, so the other 1,450 don't matter."

Zoinks buddy. Pack that bowl.

Wow that's pretty embarrassing on Graffeo's part.

"Only the 250 stores that carry HD DVD are where poeple will be renting HD discs from, so the other 1,450 don't matter."

Zoinks buddy. Pack that bowl.

Guess he must have missed the part where only 30% of those renters chose HD DVD while the other 70% rented blu ray in those stores...

I don't see what they can say. They can't trumpet the dedicated player advantage after they just slashed forecasts, and they don't have any other numbers that are favorable other than price. I guess they could put the $100 rebate deal back in effect, but thats already been old news for a month so it would have to be a deeper cut, and I don't think they want to do that yet.

I don't see what they can say. They can't trumpet the dedicated player advantage after they just slashed forecasts, and they don't have any other numbers that are favorable other than price. I guess they could put the $100 rebate deal back in effect, but thats already been old news for a month so it would have to be a deeper cut, and I don't think they want to do that yet.

They are still trumpeting the dedicated player advantage, and the HD-A2 is still $299 (at amazon anyway) so the rebate could be permanent.

Here's an article (http://www.trustedreviews.com/multimedia/news/2007/06/21/Universal-Responds-to-Blockbuster-Blu-ray-Move/p1) covering the same interview with Ken Graffeo which includes a response from Toshiba.

What Ken really said would win the format war was price, with HD DVD’s lower production costs giving it an advantage here over Blu-ray. When asked about when we would see a £100 HD DVD player, Toshiba’s Olivier Van Wynendaele, said it was unlikely to be this year, but that we could soon expect for see decks from Chinese manufactures that would undercut its own entry-level HD-E1 deck, which can currently be picked up for around £260.Chinese HD DVD players, FTW!

and there's also the fact that the HD DVD specification was finalised before any player was released, meaning that even the first-generation players can access all of the features in discs being released tomorrow. On the other hand, Blu-ray's specifications still aren't finalised, meaning that current players will not be able to access new additions to the specification.
He should have headlined with this part.

and there's also the fact that the HD DVD specification was finalised before any player was released, meaning that even the first-generation players can access all of the features in discs being released tomorrow. On the other hand, Blu-ray's specifications still aren't finalised, meaning that current players will not be able to access new additions to the specification.He should have headlined with this part.Interesting. I had thought that HD DVD didn't have anything for HD PiP (so if the person swapped it with the main picture since they were wanting to concentrate on the behind the scenes stuff most, they wouldn't necessarily get a big SD image), but it turns out that this is an optional feature for HD DVD players. So, if he is right that first-generation HD DVD player can access all the features in discs being released tomorrow, then that would seem to mean that discs being released tomorrow will not have HD PiP.

As opposed to Blu-ray which made all PiP optional until a certain point, at which SD and HD PiP will be mandatory features for players to support. I also find it interesting that he claimed that current players won't be able to access new stuff, when players like the PS3 look like they have a good chance of supporting things like HD PiP. I'm sure he felt it was prudent to leave that part out (or maybe he used wording that specifically precluded the PS3 and the writer didn't).

--Darin

As opposed to Blu-ray which made all PiP optional until a certain point, at which SD and HD PiP will be mandatory features for players to support. I also find it interesting that he claimed that current players won't be able to access new stuff, when players like the PS3 look like they have a good chance of supporting things like HD PiP. I'm sure he felt it was prudent to leave that part out (or maybe he used wording that specifically precluded the PS3 and the writer didn't).
And that's the real issue - anyone who thinks that this won't be an issue isn't facing reality. The fact that future players can do things that current ones can't. Everyone says "it doesn't matter, the movie plays" but it will only take once. Someone is at a friends house, sees the feature, & then comes home to find it won't work? They'll be PO'd = not good PR, the very crap that makes fluff piece news.

Optional feature = it's optional, will be optional, might not have it.

Optional to mandatory = should have it, but might not if it's an earlier model

And the PS3 is unique, doesn't hold for all the other players - of which there are likely to be many in the market.

Not a format slam, just one of the issues I see on both sides.

and there's also the fact that the HD DVD specification was finalised before any player was released, meaning that even the first-generation players can access all of the features in discs being released tomorrow. On the other hand, Blu-ray's specifications still aren't finalised, meaning that current players will not be able to access new additions to the specification. If anyone truly believes the specs and guidelines for either format are done and finalized, well, I have a big bridge for sale.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10847021&&#post10847021

If anyone truly believes the specs and guidelines for either format are done and finalized, well, I have a big bridge for sale.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10847021&&#post10847021
Keith,

Is 8634 the current sigma design BD SOC? Does it run everything or do you need an external celeron to work?

TIA.

"What Ken really said would win the format war was price, with HD DVD’s lower production costs giving it an advantage here over Blu-ray. When asked about when we would see a £100 HD DVD player, Toshiba’s Olivier Van Wynendaele, said it was unlikely to be this year, but that we could soon expect for see decks from Chinese manufactures that would undercut its own entry-level HD-E1 deck, which can currently be picked up for around £260."

Chinese HD DVD players, FTW!

Ok, so Ken just said we will not see a $200 HD DVD player this year (you realize those are British Pounds, right?), but that the players from China would undercut their entry-level players that sell for $520??? See the problem? They can't capture more than 60% of the market NOT INCLUDING the PS3, even when selling their players at or below the level that the Chinese players will be marketed at. Do you honestly believe that Walmart is going to order a million players for the holidays, when Toshiba can't even sell half of that amount with players in the same price range? These huge price reductions that occur out of step with customer demand simply devalue the brand and the format, they don't help them win.

All they want to do is play spoiler now, trying to eek out as much money from customers as they can, and delay the transition away from DVD (their cash cow) if at all possible.

As long as it's not like The Matrix or something huge like that.

Or Pirates of the Caribbean. I mean, those really moved players, didn't they. I think the 63,000 COMBINED units sold really underscored how voraciously the 1 million+ BR player owners out there are snapping up big titles...

Is 8634 the current sigma design BD SOC? Does it run everything or do you need an external celeron to work?Yes, it is an SoC. No external CPU needed.

Or Pirates of the Caribbean. I mean, those really moved players, didn't they. I think the 63,000 COMBINED units sold really underscored how voraciously the 1 million+ BR player owners out there are snapping up big titles...

But.....but.....but.......the consumer has spoken! That's what Bob Chapek said about that number.

Here's a funny question no one's asked. In this 70%/30% disparage, has anyone bothered to ask Blockbuster what the total amount of discs rented was? Especially since as I've mentioned before, there is no HD DVD or Blu-ray rentals to be had at my local Blockbusters.

If anyone truly believes the specs and guidelines for either format are done and finalized, well, I have a big bridge for sale.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10847021&&#post10847021
Nice cut & paste. Not my comments, they were a quote. They are more finished, you'll note at the bottom I said I see issues on both sides - this is one that seems to get ignored.


Not a format slam, just one of the issues I see on both sides.

I agree, IMO anyone that thinks the format war is good is naive.

Color me naive then because competition in general has proven to be a good thing for consumers.

Free market competition also tends to weed out poorer products on it's own, 'survival of the fittest'.

In fact asking consumers to force a premature end to the market competition that generally is the best way to protect their interest over those of private interests is quite naive IMO.

Remember folks, studios don't care much about rentals...they want SALES.

They don't make much $$ off of video stores that buy a few copies and rent out a zillion times. They make money off of sell-through to the consumer. This is a mole-hill, not a mountain.

E

But.....but.....but.......the consumer has spoken! That's what Bob Chapek said about that number.

Here's a funny question no one's asked. In this 70%/30% disparage, has anyone bothered to ask Blockbuster what the total amount of discs rented was? Especially since as I've mentioned before, there is no HD DVD or Blu-ray rentals to be had at my local Blockbusters.

Of course they did! Didn't you hear Blockbuster's answer? In-depth market research revealed that, out of the 10 high-def DVDs rented at one store, 7 were Blu-Ray and 3 were HD-DVD. That's it! Conclusive proof of consumer preference!

;) :D

(I'm just joking, so all the Blu-Ray fanatics needn't get their boxers in knots :p )

Color me naive then because competition in general has proven to be a good thing for consumers.

Free market competition also tends to weed out poorer products on it's own, 'survival of the fittest'.

In fact asking consumers to force a premature end to the market competition that generally is the best way to protect their interest over those of private interests is quite naive IMO.

Ahhhhhh!!!!! There IS competition within the Blu-ray format, just like there was with DVD. THe VHS-Beta war did not produce any useful "improvements" that were more noticeable than those derived from intra-format competition within the DVD format, so on what possible basis, outside of drinking the red koolaid, can you claim that two formats are need for competition?

Worse, the monopoly that Toshiba and MS have on HD DVD (and their financial interest in seeing both fail) means that there is a vicious meta-competition that is devalueing the products faster than consumer demand drives it.

Color me naive then because competition in general has proven to be a good thing for consumers.

Free market competition also tends to weed out poorer products on it's own, 'survival of the fittest'.

In fact asking consumers to force a premature end to the market competition that generally is the best way to protect their interest over those of private interests is quite naive IMO.

So you're happy that hddvd is being weeded out right?

Remember folks, studios don't care much about rentals...they want SALES.

They don't make much $$ off of video stores that buy a few copies and rent out a zillion times. They make money off of sell-through to the consumer. This is a mole-hill, not a mountain.

E

Also remember, blu-ray has higher SALES and a higher % of rentals (which do generate revenue for the studios).

And that's the real issue - anyone who thinks that this won't be an issue isn't facing reality. The fact that future players can do things that current ones can't. Everyone says "it doesn't matter, the movie plays" but it will only take once. Someone is at a friends house, sees the feature, & then comes home to find it won't work? They'll be PO'd = not good PR, the very crap that makes fluff piece news.

Optional feature = it's optional, will be optional, might not have it.

Optional to mandatory = should have it, but might not if it's an earlier model

And the PS3 is unique, doesn't hold for all the other players - of which there are likely to be many in the market.

Not a format slam, just one of the issues I see on both sides.
I believe those BD insiders all said that other than the PiP, there is nothing known in BD-J or iHD that cannot be supported by even that often maligned BCM 7411 in the samsung& HD-A1.

Of course, people need firmware upgrades, but even the HD-A2 still needs firmware upgrades.

Also remember, blu-ray has higher SALES and a higher % of rentals (which do generate revenue for the studios).

They also have hundreds of thousands more Trojan horses... excuse me... players out there in the form of a game console.

Where would they be without that game console, one must wonder...

They also have hundreds of thousands more Trojan horses... excuse me... players out there in the form of a game console.

Where would they be without that game console, one must wonder...

But we won't have to wonder because if you want to see what one would be without a trojan horse just look at HD DVD.

But we won't have to wonder because if you want to see what one would be without a trojan horse just look at HD DVD.

Thanks for explaining my point. ;)

Without the PS3, the BDA wouldn't be in any position to claim "victory," even WITH the support of all but one of the major film studios. It's the only thing keeping them ahead.

Thanks for explaining my point. ;)

Without the PS3, the BDA wouldn't be in any position to claim "victory," even WITH the support of all but one of the major film studios. It's the only thing keeping them ahead.

So your point is that HD DVD is losing and will continue to do so based solely on the PS3.

Ok, I will agree with you on that.

Without the PS3, the BDA wouldn't be in any position to claim "victory," even WITH the support of all but one of the major film studios. It's the only thing keeping them ahead.

That's a silly thing to say, because without the PS3 they would have developed a different strategy.

That's a silly thing to say, because without the PS3 they would have developed a different strategy.

And what strategy would that be? Please explain to me how Sony would've dominated the next-gen DVD market without their game console. I'm genuinely interested.

At best, it would be a stalemate. I find it hard to believe that so many studios would've signed on with the BDA if the PS3 hadn't been the spearhead of their entire business model.

So, no, sorry, it's not a "silly thing to say" at all. It's a pointed observation.

Please answer the question, now that you've brought it up.

They also have hundreds of thousands more Trojan horses... excuse me... players out there in the form of a game console.

Where would they be without that game console, one must wonder...

What is your point? Both camps had their strategies and both camps used it, it's just that the Sony's strategy seem to have paid off for their Blu-ray section but might have hurt their gaming division. I think it was a brilliant move to have the PS3 with a blu-ray player, as many have admitted myself included that Bluray would have been dead without the PS3.

Are you envious that Sony used a game console and Tosh didnt?

Originally Posted by davyo
In all the threads I have read since the BlockBuster anouncement I have seen nothing mentioned about any comments or feedback from Toshiba.


What should they say? Why? Do you need someone to hold your hand? Outside of AVS, its not that big of a deal.
J


Well excuse me, I was asking a question reguarding Toshiba, I was under the impression AVS forum is a place to ask about A/V gear and A/V related stuff.

You say "Outside of AVS, its not a big deal",, I thought it was outside of AVS since the Blockbuster story was on CNN and newspapers and news station across the country, I kinda thought is was a big deal, and I guess by the size of the threads on AVS reguarding this subject its a big deal with everyone on AVS as well.



I dont quite understand your reason for the "Do I need someone to hold my hand" comment,,,, were did that come from ???
Perhaps your under the impression that AVS is a forum for being rude to people for no reason what-so-ever or making a post that made no sense at all.

Davyo

And what strategy would that be? Please explain to me how Sony would've dominated the next-gen DVD market without their game console. I'm genuinely interested.

At best, it would be a stalemate. I find it hard to believe that so many studios would've signed on with the BDA if the PS3 hadn't been the spearhead of their entire business model.

So, no, sorry, it's not a "silly thing to say" at all. It's a pointed observation.

Please answer the question, now that you've brought it up.

Sony doesn't need to. They had their strategy and used it. We can go on and on with theories and what not, but it doesn't solve anything.

So your point is that HD DVD is losing and will continue to do so based solely on the PS3.


That should be a given to anyone with a modicum of knowledge about the subject. But you should also add to that the fact that, even with the PS3, their disc sales aren't anywhere *close* to overwhelming HD-DVD. HD-DVD might be "losing," but IMHO the gap is more akin to a guy on a motorcycle opening up a one-lap lead on a distance runner -- not exactly all that impressive, when you look at how big the lead should be given the advantage the motorcyclist has.

Many consumers won't adapt EITHER format until it is clear that one is dead. People DO NOT want to gamble their money on a product that might be obsolete in the near future. They need to be sure there is only one format before investing in it. I don't see either format going anywhere until one dies. Last year Bluray was the underdog and now the tables have turned and HDDVD is the underdog. Anything can happen at this point. This war can be changed with one announcement. I just want one format to die already so we can hopefully have mass adoption of one format.


Really?

How about there are not enough HDTV's in peoples homes to support widespread adoption of either format........That is what is really holding HD back and nothing else.

I think the blockbuster decision caught Toshiba by surprise. All that Toshiba could come up with that day was a Sony battery fire from a month ago.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8PRPTQ00.htm

Also, I believe Sony dropped their blu-ray player pricing knowing that BB was going with Blu-ray.

I still love HD DVD but I'm beginning to hate Toshiba. If SNE were the big, brawny, arrogant big brother that you just can't wait to kick the crap out of when you get older, then Tosh is the gimpy little brat that you want to pummel just for being weak, whiny, and impotent. They are acting so clueless and out-of-sorts against SNE...

And what strategy would that be? Please explain to me how Sony would've dominated the next-gen DVD market without their game console. I'm genuinely interested.

At best, it would be a stalemate. I find it hard to believe that so many studios would've signed on with the BDA if the PS3 hadn't been the spearhead of their entire business model.

So, no, sorry, it's not a "silly thing to say" at all. It's a pointed observation.

Please answer the question, now that you've brought it up.

So wait, are you saying you begrudge SNE for making what looks in hindsight to be a shrewd, wise business move? MSFT could have done the same exact thing, but they didn't. (Not that I blame them, I wouldn't want to bleed red to win this war when they have played it conservative and won the HT console war.)

Give credit where credit is due. It's one thing to say that SNE is arrogant, anti-consumer, has lousy CS, etc. But you simply must admit they made a wise move for the goal they were attempting to reach (control of the HD media market).

Remember folks, studios don't care much about rentals...they want SALES.

They don't make much $$ off of video stores that buy a few copies and rent out a zillion times. They make money off of sell-through to the consumer. This is a mole-hill, not a mountain.I responded to basically your same claim elsewhere. The studios understand how important it is to have rentals available for a format and the positive effects of being able to sell discs to people who wouldn't buy those if there weren't rentals available for the format (even if for different discs than the ones they are buying). A person who rents 20 discs a year and buys 5 is a positive for the studio releasing on that format compared to that person not buying a format at all if they can't rent for it.

How about answering this question:

Do you think it would have been better for HD DVD if Blockbuster had announced that they were dropping HD DVD from the original 250 stores and online, besides not expanding it to the new stores?

Even Ken Graffeo seems to understand that having HD DVD rentals available is a positive for HD DVD.

--Darin

What is your point? Both camps had their strategies and both camps used it, it's just that the Sony's strategy seem to have paid off for their Blu-ray section but might have hurt their gaming division. I think it was a brilliant move to have the PS3 with a blu-ray player, as many have admitted myself included that Bluray would have been dead without the PS3.

Are you envious that Sony used a game console and Tosh didnt?

First off, I've already mentioned this in the gaming section, but I own all THREE consoles, and I own all the previous gen's consoles as well. So no, I'm not "envious" Sony used a game console and Toshiba didn't. You're not understanding the intention of my posts. I'm not trying to "solve" anything, I'm just pointing out that fanatics (and it could be fanatics on BOTH sides, btw) shouldn't necessarily be so enamored by certain statistics.

I'm all for this format war in the sense that it's driven down prices pretty quick, but I dislike the notion that a *game* console should decide a *movie* format war.

That should be a given to anyone with a modicum of knowledge about the subject. But you should also add to that the fact that, even with the PS3, their disc sales aren't anywhere *close* to overwhelming HD-DVD. HD-DVD might be "losing," but IMHO the gap is more akin to a guy on a motorcycle opening up a one-lap lead on a distance runner -- not exactly all that impressive, when you look at how big the lead should be given the advantage the motorcyclist has.

So HD DVD is losing and will continue to lose but it should be getting slaughtered.

That is what passes for a positive take on HD DVDs position?

Ok then.

Give credit where credit is due. It's one thing to say that SNE is arrogant, anti-consumer, has lousy CS, etc. But you simply must admit they made a wise move for the goal they were attempting to reach (control of the HD media market).

Do you see me say anywhere in my posts that SNE is "arrogant, anti-consumer," etc? No. So please don't put words in people's mouths.

Obviously, Sony made a shrewd move. They probably made the ONLY move they could have to force their format to win the war, however. And yes that's me speculating and yes it's all theoretical, but we're allowed to do that around here, unless my freedom of speech has suddenly been rescinded.

I'm all for this format war in the sense that it's driven down prices pretty quick, but I dislike the notion that a *game* console should decide a *movie* format war.

But the PS3 isn't only a *game* console, it was always pushed as a digital media device and frankly the only thing it is doing really well is the *movie* part.

Did you also complain about the PS2 being the first DVD player that many people had?

So HD DVD is losing and will continue to lose but it should be getting slaughtered.

That is what passes for a positive take on HD DVDs position?

Ok then.

Ugh. You're either such a blatant BR fanboy that you can't read anything properly, or you continue to totally misread my posts.

I'm not TRYING to do a "positive take" on HD-DVD's position. I'm saying that, all things considered, it's INTERESTING that the BDA isn't LIGHT-YEARS ahead of their competition in sales. Can YOU admit that that's a curious thing?

But the PS3 isn't only a *game* console, it was always pushed as a digital media device and frankly the only thing it is doing really well is the *movie* part.

Did you also complain about the PS2 being the first DVD player that many people had?

Jiffy, for the last time, I'm not complaining about the PS3. Get that through your skull first, and maybe you'll be able to reply to my posts in less of a confrontational, snobby way. I'm trying to get some people around here to at least admit that it's surprising Blu-Ray sales aren't higher than they currently are considering the numbers of PS3s out there.

Jesus Christ.

Jiffy, for the last time, I'm not complaining about the PS3. Get that through your skull first, and maybe you'll be able to reply to my posts in less of a confrontational, snobby way. I'm trying to get some people around here to at least admit that it's surprising Blu-Ray sales aren't higher than they currently are considering the numbers of PS3s out there.

Jesus Christ.

Check out some of darin's posts regarding rough estimates of ps3 as BD players. I think it's fairly obvious that many ps3 aren't being used as BD movie players.

I think darinp used a rough rate of 20% against the # of ps3 players, which gave BD a 3:2 advantage or something over the toshiba standalone players. That also means that 5 ps3 would have to be sold for every 1 toshiba player for hardware sales of the two to be equal.

I think his posts might have been in the neilson sales thread, but may be buried by now.

And what strategy would that be? Please explain to me how Sony would've dominated the next-gen DVD market without their game console. I'm genuinely interested.

At best, it would be a stalemate. I find it hard to believe that so many studios would've signed on with the BDA if the PS3 hadn't been the spearhead of their entire business model.

So, no, sorry, it's not a "silly thing to say" at all. It's a pointed observation.

Please answer the question, now that you've brought it up.

So.... in response to my claim that you are speculating on what marketing plan the BDA would or would not have come up without the PS3... you want me to speculate on how it could have played out? For the sake of (a sort of bizzare) arguement, the BDA could have put more money and effort into wooing the studios and recieved unanimous support with enough concessions. They could have decided years ago that the new format would be impossible without Microsoft and the computer industry and asked them to help develop Blu-ray (much like Sony asked competitor Panasonic to do so, sharing royalties with them). Since the had a majority of hardware CEs already, they could have decided that computer companies are out to kill physical media, and instead decided that the politics of pushing their format through the DVD group was worth the extra effort and won without a format war. They have decided very early on that Toshiba had the most to lose from DVD royalties drying up and offered to codevelop the software with them.

There are other plausible alternatives, but they move further and further away from how things DID in fact pan out. The point is that the whole BD/HD DVD thing as it exists today wasn't some sort of runaway technological concept that existed in a vacuum. It was the result of deliberate planning on both sides to try and take advantage of the options that came up over the several years of development. To pretend like you could "just" subtract the PS3 from the equation without giving the BDA back 4-5 years to work under different assumptions is silly.

Jiffy, for the last time, I'm not complaining about the PS3. Get that through your skull first, and maybe you'll be able to reply to my posts in less of a confrontational, snobby way. I'm trying to get some people around here to at least admit that it's surprising Blu-Ray sales aren't higher than they currently are considering the numbers of PS3s out there.

Jesus Christ.

I would like to point out that the reason you are getting confrontational posts could have something to do with your approach, might want to consider that.

Here at AVS over the last year or so we have been force fed the idea that the PS3 doesn't matter and HD DVD is vastly superior in every way under all circumstances. So under those circumstances the PS3 turning the 'war' in BDs favor is a very good thing.

I don't know if the PS3 was intended to have a much more important influence in this area, but it is doing something.

FWIW I own a PS3 and use it primarily for watching movies, most of which I rent from BB and Netflix.

I apologize for coming off harsh, this is a rough area especially in this thread.

Hope you have a good one

Do you see me say anywhere in my posts that SNE is "arrogant, anti-consumer," etc? No. So please don't put words in people's mouths.

Obviously, Sony made a shrewd move. They probably made the ONLY move they could have to force their format to win the war, however. And yes that's me speculating and yes it's all theoretical, but we're allowed to do that around here, unless my freedom of speech has suddenly been rescinded.

I wasn't saying that you said them...I was saying that if *anyone* said it, it'd be a fair debate.

As for them making the "only" move...well as you said it's speculation. However, like you also said, it's not speculation that they did indeed make a shrewd business move considering their ultimate goal. See, I'm not so sure MSFT's ultimate goal was for HD DVD to have a de facto win -- but NOT for the reasons most people mention. I think they perhaps made the wisest move of all, in that they tapped into the gaming industry in a pretty lucrative, interesting way. I think their decisions have very little to do with digital downloads, but more to do with tapping into more gaming market share.

That's my speculation. :) IMO, both companies have competed well. I just hate SNE so therefore it's harder for me to cheer them on.

Jesus Christ.
did someone call me? ;)

bd movies are very expensive next to dvds which are often on special offer. i don't think it's all that surprising that bd hasn't sold a bunch of discs yet. when dvd first came out it too was limited to just a little display by the massed ranks of vhs. in time that changed, but it didn't happen overnight even when the ps2 launched*. it was a cumulative process.

*i'm from the uk, and the ps2 launched far closer to dvd here than in the usofa.

Jiffy, for the last time, I'm not complaining about the PS3. Get that through your skull first, and maybe you'll be able to reply to my posts in less of a confrontational, snobby way. I'm trying to get some people around here to at least admit that it's surprising Blu-Ray sales aren't higher than they currently are considering the numbers of PS3s out there.

Jesus Christ.

Right on. Sometimes it's hard around here to get anyone to see the nose on their own face. You're 100% right in your assertions. With the trojan horse that is the PS3 and the millions of units out there; in theory, it should be slaughtering any competing format. So this begs the question: why isn't it?

I also think it's sad that a game console is deciding a movie format war. and for the Sony "PR" people that are going to flame me, I would say the same darn thing if the 360 add on was changing the tide of the war.

Ugh. You're either such a blatant BR fanboy that you can't read anything properly, or you continue to totally misread my posts.

I'm not TRYING to do a "positive take" on HD-DVD's position. I'm saying that, all things considered, it's INTERESTING that the BDA isn't LIGHT-YEARS ahead of their competition in sales. Can YOU admit that that's a curious thing?

Actually I really don't. It is after all a game console first and foremost. I never expected it to have a high attach rate...I bought it for the same reason most people did, and it sure hasn't panned out in the gaming arena. (Quite frankly it sucks as a gaming console, it's more like the 3DO or IntelliVision at this point.) What SNE did was flood the market with a bunch of BD-ready devices, attach rates be damned. After all, attach rates don't matter a lick if you have millions of devices that can potentially be used as BD players.

But here's the catch: not only did it stutter out of the gates, but SNE has been really lucky that Tosh and Uni are looking like complete buffoons. If the PS3 had been priced more competitively and had sold the expected amount, and if their CE consortium had lowered their standalone prices as well, this war would have been decided prior to the BBI announcement.

Attach rates mean nothing whatsoever if your product sells by the millions. But like we all know, the PS3 have had pretty horrendous sales numbers when compared to similar devices, which in actuality has made this war closer than it should be. It doesn't mean I won't root for the underdog while I pad my investment with some blue-colored cases though LOL.

I also think it's sad that a game console is deciding a movie format war. and for the Sony "PR" people that are going to flame me, I would say the same darn thing if the 360 add on was changing the tide of the war.

I agree with this, it ticks me off too. I'd actually like to play something interesting other than Oblivion, a 2 year old title. With that being said, it was a very wise business move for SNE considering their goal. It was just a very anti-consumer, anti-gaming community move.

Even though the PS3 is a great BD player, I for one will never buy another SNE console again -- because my primary reason for buying it was for *gasp* games.

I don't recall Laser Disc taking off because there was no other format around.

Actually, there were CEDs which were in direct competition with LD as movies on a big ol' disc. And LD's advantages to VHS were (arguably) minor until the introduction of the special edition in the early 90's.

Thanks for explaining my point. ;)

Without the PS3, the BDA wouldn't be in any position to claim "victory," even WITH the support of all but one of the major film studios. It's the only thing keeping them ahead.

I'm perfectly fine with that :D


Toshiba tried that route with MS :p

I'm trying to get some people around here to at least admit that it's surprising Blu-Ray sales aren't higher than they currently are considering the numbers of PS3s out there.I dont' understand why people should be surprised. I thought people knew over a year ago that it wouldn't sell as many discs per machines as standalones. That is the only thing that makes sense to me, yet I read these things that act like it should do better. Before it launched I said that if it could do 20% I would consider it a significant force. And I consider 20% for a game machine to be pretty good. If Toshiba does the laptop thing and it can do an effective 10% I would consider that pretty good too. I act like it should be contributing 100% of what standalones deliver for movie sales and that anything else means it is doing poorly.

Sony chose an approach that meant lower attach rates and Microsoft chose an approach that meant higher attach rates and lower amounts of movies sold. If Microsoft had decided to put an HD DVD drive in every XBOX360 then that would have likely helped HD DVD, but it wouldn't have meant that XBOX360s should have contributed at the same rate as standalones or their add-on. By going the add-on route they were able to keep people who weren't interested in HD DVD movies from counting in their attach rate equations, but those higher attach rates don't mean that the format is better off than if every XBOX360 could play the movies without buying anything extra.

For those who think Blu-ray should be doing better with the PS3, how many movies per machine should the PS3 be selling compared to standalones?

All else being equal, without the XBOX360 add-on HD DVD would likely have something like half as many owners and would be in a much worse position to keep Universal exclusive (they might have already gone neutral or switched), so it isn't like either side hasn't been propped up significantly by game systems.

--Darin

"I thought people knew over a year ago that it wouldn't sell as many discs per machines as standalones. "

I believe most of us did as I believe most of us understand this is for the long haul, not just buying 100 titles the day the console is bought, but gradual purchases and rentals over time (just like DVD).

I don't recall Laser Disc taking off because there was no other format around.

There have been plenty of techs that have failed and it wasn't because they had a similar rival technology out there that confused the consumer.

If HDM fail it's because the public doesn't want them and nothing more.

Post of the day. Irrefutable truth.

BTW: My memory is that rdjam's numbers before either the PS3 or the XBOX360 launched were 10% for the PS3 and that 30% of XBOX360 owners would buy the add-on. I mentioned this once and he questioned whether he really said it, but I provided a link and he had to admit those were the numbers he used. For anybody thinking it was going to be 10% for the PS3, I think there is good evidence that it is doing better than that in the US and NA at least. With maybe 1.4-1.5 million PS3s and ~100k Blu-ray standalones against maybe 300k+ HD DVD standalones plus XBOX360 add-ons, if the number for the PS3 was only 10% then HD DVD should be winning many weeks by Nielsen for disc sales. Instead they have yet to win a week this year (although the week ending July 1st looks like a likely win for them given lots more releases).

--Darin

I think it was a brilliant move to have the PS3 with a blu-ray player, as many have admitted myself included that Bluray would have been dead without the PS3.
What do you think is more important to Sony? The Blu-ray division or the gaming division?

Seeing how the PS3 is sold at a loss as a console first and foremost (they aren't exactly selling their standalones at a loss), the gaming division is where it's at. And in that regard the PS3 has bombed because of the inclusion of Blu-ray which made the console too expensive.

Yes, the PS3 was Blu-ray's savior. But Sony had to pay a huge price in that it's being slaughtered on the gaming front.
So calling the move brilliant is quite a stretch.

What do you think is more important to Sony? The Blu-ray division or the gaming division?

Seeing how the PS3 is sold at a loss as a console first and foremost (they aren't exactly selling their standalones at a loss), the gaming division is where it's at. And in that regard the PS3 has bombed because of the inclusion of Blu-ray which made the console too expensive.

Yes, the PS3 was Blu-ray's savior. But Sony had to pay a huge price in that it's being slaughtered on the gaming front.
So calling the move brilliant is quite a stretch.

I would beg to differ, from SNE's standpoint. Their apparent tactic (keep in mind we are all speculating here) is that they want to corner the market in the movie entertainment industry -- from HW to content to the disks they're distributed on. From their perspective it's brilliant.

From MSFT's perspective -- given they don't own studios nor do they make non-gaming HW -- their stake is to lay claim to the HT gaming consoles.

Both companies have made good moves if one assumes the above speculation to be true. It's all how you evaluate their motivations really.

And what strategy would that be? Please explain to me how Sony would've dominated the next-gen DVD market without their game console. I'm genuinely interested.

At best, it would be a stalemate. I find it hard to believe that so many studios would've signed on with the BDA if the PS3 hadn't been the spearhead of their entire business model.

So, no, sorry, it's not a "silly thing to say" at all. It's a pointed observation.

Please answer the question, now that you've brought it up.
It's difficult to know how it would play out.

Mind you, I thought from Sony's previous choices with the playstation :
PS1 : CD-rom (+ free CD-audio player)
PS2 : DVD-rom ( + free DVD-audio player)
PS3 : BD-rom (+ free BD-movie player)

And I'd say Duh! if you're surprised the PS3 was still going to use DVD-rom.

---

But if PS3 shipped with a DVD-rom, I doubt MSFT would be interested in the X360 HD DVD add-on, and more than that, I doubt that MSFT would be as active in HD DVD PG as they are now.

What could this mean? Toshiba without MSFT's support could have been more compliant with the BDA and agreed to unify to the BD spec. BDA, in the interest to avoid a format war could have been willing to compromise and give Toshiba more of the royalty pie. And there would be no format war.

Who knows how it would have panned out?

Who knows how it would have panned out?I sure don't. But I doubt Toshiba would have priced their first players at $499 MSRP if the threat of the PS3 wasn't looming. There have definitely been some positives for consumers from the war.

--Darin

Gamergirl has a point which no BD fan wants to admit.

If you can compare this war to any sporting competition, then you have to assume both sides are dynamically changing strategies depending on what the other side is doing. I think too many people on both sides think that only the side they're rooting for is going to change strategy's while the other sits on their asses waiting for the final buzzer. It's not going to happen.

To the OP, I would wait a few weeks to see if the HD DVD companies don't do something to offset anything that has been announced.
And for the record, unless you're already well versed in the format war, nobody outside cares or even knows.

Gamergirl has a point which no BD fan wants to admit.

If you can compare this war to any sporting competition, then you have to assume both sides are dynamically changing strategies depending on what the other side is doing. I think too many people on both sides think that only the side they're rooting for is going to change strategy's while the other sits on their asses waiting for the final buzzer. It's not going to happen.As I've said, we should get to see how much Toshiba wants to win this thing.

--Darin

Ahhhhhh!!!!! There IS competition within the Blu-ray format, just like there was with DVD. THe VHS-Beta war did not produce any useful "improvements" that were more noticeable than those derived from intra-format competition within the DVD format, so on what possible basis, outside of drinking the red koolaid, can you claim that two formats are need for competition?



I'd like to hope that intra-format competition works out well enough, but it's naive not to see a great deal of cooperation among companies here that are supposedly competitors. Nothing unusual but also doesn't reassure one that full scale competition is taking place either.

I'm drinking both red & blu koolaid, a nice fruity mix btw. :) You're just trying to limit my choices to blu only.

So you're happy that hddvd is being weeded out right?

Sure, as long as the competition was based on a fair and open market moreso than marketing manipulation and private interests dressed up as 'the good of the consumer'.

That's not to say that manipulation occurs only in blu, but the point is competition makes that manipulation more difficult to pull off. Let the competition run it's course and let the big companies spend their money to win if they want to own the market, fair & square.

Consumers should be tickled pink that Sony has been forced to offer a feature rich product like the PS3 for $600 and now has to quickly figure out how to get it down even lower. That's caused by competition. You want 1 gaming console format as well?

Now if any of this can push a company like MS for instance to get off some of that billion dollar piggy bank and continue to push High definition media forward, you want us to call a stop to the game before they do it? Why, because it's not all done in blu?

As I've said, we should get to see how much Toshiba wants to win this thing.

--Darin


I'd expect a price cut or re-implementation of the $100 rebate. The disparity in player prices is their biggest advantage. We'll have to see though.

But Sony had to pay a huge price in that it's being slaughtered on the gaming front.OTOH, a market leader can usually stumble once and still recover their market leadership on the next generation if it's featured/priced right.

agreed Kjack, just look at how well Nintendo is doing (they were in 3rd last gen I believe).

Either I'd be shocked if Sony didn't realize that they were making a trade off on console market share this gen in order to push blu-ray. A bold move indeed which could be very profitable or cost them a lot of money. Still will have to wait it out to see how everything pans out.

agreed Kjack, just look at how well Nintendo is doing (they were in 3rd last gen I believe).

Either I'd be shocked if Sony didn't realize that they were making a trade off on console market share this gen in order to push blu-ray. A bold move indeed which could be very profitable or cost them a lot of money. Still will have to wait it out to see how everything pans out.

It has cost them at least 2 billion so far and the recent announcent to fire many wprkers and close certain aspects of Sony. I can see why they continue to deperately scream the war is over and we've won.

It has cost them at least 2 billion so far and the recent announcent to fire many wprkers and close certain aspects of Sony. I can see why they continue to deperately scream the war is over and we've won.

Maybe some think this is a short term plan and don't understand initial investments involved but others do.

Considering the significant lead they have over HD-DVD I don't sense any desperation at all. Toshiba had a lead over them, they had the good press, BDA had the negative press at the start yet still the overcome and have taken a considerable lead. It isn't just sony, panasonic and other members of the BDA but company's like Blockbuster noticing 70+ of Home Theater enthusiasts choosing blu-ray over HD-DVD :D

I'd expect a price cut or re-implementation of the $100 rebate. The disparity in player prices is their biggest advantage. We'll have to see though.Price is their "biggest" advantage? I think not. IMO Universal is their biggest advantage ATM. Lose Universal and they couldn't move their players even if they were priced at $99.

But they absolutely need to cut their hardware prices again. The same $100 off won't be enough for Toshiba to get to their target. They may have sold 50,000 players in six weeks but they're going to have to do much better per week to reach 1 million. And did the add-on continue to sell at its previous pace or did its numbers fall? Toshiba probably canabalized a lot of add-on sales as well as selling to a lot of existing HD DVD owners.

On top of that Walmart has to be really leery of bringing in any house branded HD DVD players after Blockbuster's press release.

Price is their "biggest" advantage? I think not. IMO Universal is their biggest advantage ATM. Lose Universal and they couldn't move their players even if they were priced at $99.

But they absolutely need to cut their hardware prices again. The same $100 off won't be enough for Toshiba to get to their target. They may have sold 50,000 players in six weeks but they're going to have to do much better per week to reach 1 million. And did the add-on continue to sell at its previous pace or did its numbers fall? Toshiba probably canabalized a lot of add-on sales as well as selling to a lot of existing HD DVD owners.

On top of that Walmart has to be really leery of bringing in any house branded HD DVD players after Blockbuster's press release.


Yeah, you're right. I was thinking of universal excusivity as a given. So "2nd biggest" advantage. :)

Maybe some think this is a short term plan and don't understand initial investments involved but others do.

Considering the significant lead they have over HD-DVD I don't sense any desperation at all. Toshiba had a lead over them, they had the good press, BDA had the negative press at the start yet still the overcome and have taken a considerable lead. It isn't just sony, panasonic and other members of the BDA but company's like Blockbuster noticing 70+ of Home Theater enthusiasts choosing blu-ray over HD-DVD :D

As I've said many times before..This is a marathon not a sprint and it's gonna be a while before the fat lady reaches the finish line. ;)

On top of that Walmart has to be really leery of bringing in any house branded HD DVD players after Blockbuster's press release.
I doubt it. Walmart's plans, if it's true that they are favoring HD DVD, were already in motion before the BB announcement. Obviously, they're only going to commit to the minimum to see how things shake out. Also, Walmart is trying to expand their own share of the rental market. All it means is one less competitor in the HD DVD rental arena.

Also, Walmart is trying to expand their own share of the rental market.They are? Do you mean in stores? I looked online a few days ago and they had shut down their rental service and were sending people to Netflix.

I'm starting to see a possible strategy forming here with Sony and Walmart, given the stuff about Walmart selling Sony TVs and now the news about Sony getting Dale Earnhardt Jr. as a spokesperson. Could see things with his image pushing Sony stuff (including PS3s) in Walmarts.

--Darin

Blockbuster noticing 70+ of Home Theater enthusiasts choosing blu-ray over HD-DVD

Assuming that the "70" refers to the Blu-ray software sales percentage, then this is an INCREDIBLY false and misleading statement.

The "enthusiasts" did not "choose" Blu-ray. Rather, with the exception of some enthusiasts who bought the PS3 for Blu-ray movies, it was the consumers who bought 3,000,000+ PS3's for gaming that have accounted for the Blu-ray software lead. They most assuredly did NOT buy it for Blu-ray movies, and had the PS3 been a standalone Blu-ray player, it's sales would likely have been tiny. However, since they had the player, a few owners got a few movies. This was hardly any sort of "choice" or mandate on the general part of PS3 owners to support Blu-ray.

The "Home Theater enthusiasts" that YOU refer to are the ones sitting on THIS forum. And by a BIG majority, these enthusiasts chose HD DVD.

Blu-ray has plenty going for it right now, but no one needs this kind of blatant misrepresentation.

And if in fact you believe that the choice of the home enthusiast consumer is what really should matter, then you should not be supporting Blockbuster's role in this. If in fact you are glad that Blockbuster supports Blu-ray (which is certainly your right), but have used this as an opportunity to say that home enthusiast supporters of Blu-ray made this happen, then that is patently incorrect and misleading.

To repeat, the choice of the enthusiasts by a very wide margin is HD DVD.

If in fact I misread what you were saying, then ignore my response. Thank you.

As I've said, we should get to see how much Toshiba wants to win this thing.

--Darin
I agree. The ball is now in their hands.

They are? Do you mean in stores? I looked online a few days ago and they had shut down their rental service and were sending people to Netflix.
I think you're right. My mistake. They're partnering with Netflix doing cross promotions and such.

Assuming that the "70" refers to the Blu-ray software sales percentage, then this is an INCREDIBLY false and misleading statement.

The "enthusiasts" did not "choose" Blu-ray. Rather, with the exception of some enthusiasts who bought the PS3 for Blu-ray movies, it was the consumers who bought 3,000,000+ PS3's for gaming that have accounted for the Blu-ray software lead. They most assuredly did NOT buy it for Blu-ray movies, and had the PS3 been a standalone Blu-ray player, it's sales would likely have been tiny. However, since they had the player, a few owners got a few movies. This was hardly any sort of "choice" or mandate on the general part of PS3 owners to support Blu-ray.

The "Home Theater enthusiasts" that YOU refer to are the ones sitting on THIS forum. And by a BIG majority, these enthusiasts chose HD DVD.

Blu-ray has plenty going for it right now, but no one needs this kind of blatant misrepresentation.

And if in fact you believe that the choice of the home enthusiast consumer is what really should matter, then you should not be supporting Blockbuster's role in this. If in fact you are glad that Blockbuster supports Blu-ray (which is certainly your right), but have used this as an opportunity to say that home enthusiast supporters of Blu-ray made this happen, then that is patently incorrect and misleading.

To repeat, the choice of the enthusiasts by a very wide margin is HD DVD.

If in fact I misread what you were saying, then ignore my response. Thank you.

From the articles I've read like this engadget one it is over 70% for Blockbuster. Do you have a link from a blockbuster rep that states differently?

http://www.engadget.com/2007/06/17/blockbuster-chooses-blu-ray-is-the-war-over/

...Blockbuster VP Matthew Smith revealed to the AP that the decision to go with Blu-ray -- which will reportedly be announced tomorrow -- stemmed from an overwhelming customer preference for those titles in the test markets, accounting for over 70% of all HD discs rented. Interestingly enough, it seems that content -- and not price...

If and buts and what ifs about hypotheticals aren't what I'm talking about, I'm sticking to reality, not removing the PS3, not removing the xbox360, etc. I don't create or make up the numbers. Based on everything I've read (the world is much bigger than AVS, if a person were to go by avs a couple years back they'd be left thinking the xbox outsold the PS2 :eek: ) Neilsen Data (posted at AVS every Friday), etc more enthusiasts are indeed choosing blu-ray over HD-DVD.

Last year though HD-DVD was in the lead, maybe I misunderstood you and that is what you are referring to. You are correct if that is the case. How wide I guess depends on how far back you go last year. I am aware that HD-DVD has been out for a longer period of time ;)

In all the threads I have read since the BlockBuster anouncement I have seen nothing mentioned about any comments or feedback from Toshiba.

I own and love both formats but I dont want to see HD DVD get its butt kicked by Sony,,,,, I wish both formats would both survive,,,,, the format war and the competition is really good for us consumers.

For us the format war is like being the only child of parents getting divorced, both parents are giving the kid more and more and tring to win its love, meanwhile the kids makes out like a bandit,,,,, yes,, my parents got divorced when I was young and I got spoiled rotten from it,,,,, it was great !!!!!!!!!!!

Anyhow, back to Toshiba, has anyone emailed Toshiba and asked them what they intend on doing to counter the BlockBuster deal.

So far I have not seen one word from Toshiba and nothing on the HD DVD website.
Is Toshiba just guna lay down like a dirty dog and take a beating ????

Com'on Toshiba, do something !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Davyo

Toshiba's stock is doing fairly well, and since when was BallBuster a deciding factor in the battle for Format supremency. I for one do not rent HD movies that have been rented to the public, I cherish my equipment and want to prolong its life without popcorn smudges, baby drool, and little Johnny's finger prints.

It really comes down to Universal. They take a walk on HD-DVD when their contract is up... HD-DVD is as good as dead no matter how Toshiba wants to play this. Uni knows they hold the trump card. What consessions the Blu-ray Group are willing to give them to switch is anybody's guess. Early 2008 will be an interesting time.

My only concern with Universal is if they will continue to pump out content without considering the quality even if delivering the content on Blu-ray. They've been going down hill for awhile now.

Dan

Maybe some think this is a short term plan and don't understand initial investments involved but others do.

Considering the significant lead they have over HD-DVD I don't sense any desperation at all. Toshiba had a lead over them, they had the good press, BDA had the negative press at the start yet still the overcome and have taken a considerable lead. It isn't just sony, panasonic and other members of the BDA but company's like Blockbuster noticing 70+ of Home Theater enthusiasts choosing blu-ray over HD-DVD :D

So lemme see....blockbuster's store limited RENTAL % is the definitve stat to go by? Umm, okay.

Seems pretty simple to me...there are about 5 quadrillion blu ray players in the market (via the ps3) yet software sales are not totally killing hd dvd (a 60/40 split when you're talking about these low disc sales is not that big) which has what less than 1/10th the player install base. How anyone can look at the SALES FIGURES and be impressed and spewing forth how hd dvd is done and all that jazz is beyond me.

The way I look at the Buster rental figures is that probably more hd dvd owners are BUYING their discs (you know, how studios mainly make the money) or the quadrillions of PS3 owners are not the big bluray movie backers as some here keep trying to brainwash people into thinking.

I for one do not care as I will continue to support both formats (and I use a PS3 to boot) but I am so sick of people in these forums totally ignoring the simple fact that the sales figure difference does not indicate any dominance by blu.

If there are 150k hd dvd players in use (just using that number) then I'd guess the REAL number of bluray players is around 200-250k. Wow, what a killing. :rolleyes:

Now if I see the longterm sales breakdown go to 90-10 or even 80-20 THEN we'll talk. But 60-40? PLEASE.

Listen people,

When you go to Blockbuster and look around, what do you see?
You see alot of space in the gaming section. The game seection in Blockbuster has tripled in size within the last 4 years and if you look even harder Playstation has the most linear footage. Would it be safe to say that when people go to rent PS3 games either for themselves or for their children that it would be just as easy to pick up a BR movie and watch some movies in HD?. HDDVD should lose the battle in Blockbuster but to end the war it will take alot more than that. Toshiba doesn't need to make a statement because none is warranted.

BTW: I do not rent HD media...I only review and buy.

It really comes down to Universal. They take a walk on HD-DVD when their contract is up... HD-DVD is as good as dead no matter how Toshiba wants to play this. Uni knows they hold the trump card. What consessions the Blu-ray Group are willing to give them to switch is anybody's guess. Early 2008 will be an interesting time.

My only concern with Universal is if they will continue to pump out content without considering the quality even if delivering the content on Blu-ray. They've been going down hill for awhile now.

Dan

I agree, that is way more damaging than Blockbusters announcement.

So lemme see....blockbuster's store limited RENTAL % is the definitve stat to go by? Umm, okay............

Read the link with the info from BB's COO, it explains their choice pretty clearly. No doubt some disagree/are unhappy with it, but it is BB's call not the people of AVS. Personally I wish it wasn't limited but at all of the their stores as the BB by me (walking distance) doesn't carry either format. Hollywood Video (driving distance) does have both but very limited selection.

the world is much bigger than AVS

I am not questioning the "70". It is the context you place it in that is incorrect, IMO. While I don't have empirical evidence, I would imagine that the "home theater enthusiast" market that you refer to in the "world" probably closely mirrors that of the AVS, meaning that if the AVS, which is most assuredly a "home theater enthusiast" market, HEAVILY favors HD DVD, then the global "home theater enthusiast" market does as well.

That is where your context fails about the "70". The "70" is NOT a representation of the "home theater enthusiast" market, but rather of the trojan horse effect of the PS3. And like I said, there is nothing wrong with that per se. It is YOU that has to come to grips with the fact that Blockbuster's choice to support Blu-ray is almost certainly not favoring the "home theater enthusiast", but rather than casual watcher of Blu-ray movies on the PS3.

And please, no one has to jump on my post, and say they bought the PS3 to watch Blu-ray movies. I know you did, You are the very small exception in the global market. The very huge majority of PS3 owners are casual movie watchers, not "home theater enthusiasts".

On top of that Walmart has to be really leery of bringing in any house branded HD DVD players after Blockbuster's press release.

WalMart has the retailing muscle to make Blockbuster carry HD DVDs due to volume of HD DVD player and disc sales.

Maybe some think this is a short term plan and don't understand initial investments involved but others do.

Considering the significant lead they have over HD-DVD I don't sense any desperation at all. Toshiba had a lead over them, they had the good press, BDA had the negative press at the start yet still the overcome and have taken a considerable lead. It isn't just sony, panasonic and other members of the BDA but company's like Blockbuster noticing 70+ of Home Theater enthusiasts choosing blu-ray over HD-DVD :D

Yet another attempt to explain away Sony's problems with supposed "knowledge" of the Business World.

How long have you worked in the corporate world Brian where you sit in on investment meetings and listen to the brokerage's grill the companies officers about their financials?

It's something I've been experiencing now for 11 years. I can assure you that Sony is getting grilled on the massive losses they are taking due to the PS3. Howard Stringer (you know, the guy who runs Sony) said that "price cuts on the PS3 are possible" only a short while after others at Sony said "no price cuts on the PS3 in 2007". When things are going well you don't can over a thousand people in your game division and fire the architect who developed your latest prize product.

The downward spiral in PS3 sales is alarming to EVERYONE with a stake in Sony. If I was a software developer excuslive to Sony I would be extremely concerned right now that they might not have enough of a market share to even make it worth the investment to produce a AAA title for the PS3.

The PS3 might very well win the "BD vs. HD DVD" war for Sony but it might not matter. Mass adoption of HD media is not guarenteed. Whereas console gaming is a hugely successful and growing market.

I'm pretty sure that if the choice for Sony was have the PS3 win the console war or have BD win the optical storage war they would much rather have that lions share of the console gaming market.

I am not questioning the "70". It is the context you place it in that is incorrect, IMO. While I don't have empirical evidence, I would imagine that the "home theater enthusiast" market that you refer to in the "world" probably closely mirrors that of the AVS, meaning that if the AVS, which is most assuredly a "home theater enthusiast" market, HEAVILY favors HD DVD, then the global "home theater enthusiast" market does as well.

That is where your context fails about the "70". The "70" is NOT a representation of the "home theater enthusiast" market, but rather of the trojan horse effect of the PS3. And like I said, there is nothing wrong with that per se. It is YOU that has to come to grips with the fact that Blockbuster's choice to support Blu-ray is almost certainly not favoring the "home theater enthusiast", but rather than casual watcher of Blu-ray movies on the PS3.

And please, no one has to jump on my post, and say they bought the PS3 to watch Blu-ray movies. I know you did, You are the very small exception in the global market. The very huge majority of PS3 owners are casual movie watchers, not "home theater enthusiasts".

Fine, you can have the schematics game, though what one person considers a home theater is different to the next (been discussed plenty of times before as well)... Movie fans, does that work for you as they are renting movies?

I don't feel I put the 70% out of context one bit, but we'll just have to disagree on that. BB made their decision based on that figure and it is what it is for now. I'm sure they will adjust to the market further as time passes.

jmpage2, not an attempt, just personal belief just like you have yours. I feel the exact opposite, I believe they'd rather have the lions share of HD movies if they could only have one, of course I don't believe they just want one.

jmpage2, not an attempt, just personal belief just like you have yours. I feel the exact opposite, I believe they'd rather have the lions share of HD movies if they could only have one, of course I don't believe they just want one.

Console gaming is supposed to eclipse the movie industry in total profits this year or next year.

If Console gaming is going to eclipse the entire movie industry in profts then I stand by my statement that it would be far better for Sony and their shareholders to win the console war than to win the HD media war.

Console gaming is supposed to eclipse the movie industry in total profits this year or next year.

If Console gaming is going to eclipse the entire movie industry in profts then I stand by my statement that it would be far better for Sony and their shareholders to win the console war than to win the HD media war.

I wouldn't think of asking you to leave your statement. :) It could go either way long term for them as there are tons of factors involved.

Console gaming is supposed to eclipse the movie industry in total profits this year or next year.

If Console gaming is going to eclipse the entire movie industry in profts then I stand by my statement that it would be far better for Sony and their shareholders to win the console war than to win the HD media war.


That is why Sony wants to win both, hence why HDMI 1.3 and Blu-Ray output at 1080p was included in the PS3 along with a much more powerful cpu than the 360 who's only advantage was a small increase in power with the graphics card that is arguably offset by the more powerful cell proc and wider flexibility to program with both cpu and gpu... The 360 coming to market a year earlier did allow it to gain a substantial early lead in the US and an HD-DVD drive inclusion could have all but ended this battle after the dismal SOny Blu-Ray launch with HOFD and TFE.. However in worldwide sales figures, the Ps3 will surpass 360 in sales as well as having the software sales lead for Blu-Ray at the same time if the current trend and lead continues. The 360 as a gaming console will do just fine at that time in 2nd place. However HD-DVD in 2nd place won't stay there forever and the 360's lack of an HD-DVD drive and HDMI ultimately may be what turns out to be the most important factor that caused HD-DVD to lose this format war.

If you are looking for a good upconverting HD-DVD player, you are talking XA2 not A2. That costs about the same as the Samsung which performs just as well.

Sorry to say that is actually not true. The XA2 SD DVD up-conversion outperforms Samsung's BD-P1200.

-Robert

Sorry to say that is actually not true. The XA2 SD DVD up-conversion outperforms Samsung's BD-P1200.

-Robert


How is this so if both use the same Silicon Optix Reon HQV video-processing chip?

You must be thinking of the Samsung BD-P1000 which used the Genesis “Cortez” video processing solution that integrated some of Faroudja’s video processing algorithms but failed many upconversion tests.

http://www.hqv.com/news/bdp1200review.cfm?CFID=8353904&CFTOKEN=43382726

Supermans ^ Toshiba's XA2 has excellent image enhancement tools that are lacking in Samsung's BD-P1200. What good is a race car with no accelerator pedal?

-Robert

Supermans ^ Toshiba's XA2 has excellent image enhancement tools that are lacking in Samsung's BD-P1200. What good is a race car with no accelerator pedal?

-Robert
images output via HDMI should never be enhanced. The output should be the exact result of what the decoder outputs in YCrCb, even the conversion rules from 4:2:0 is spelled out and cannot deviate.

Deinterlacing however if done properly is ok as displays don't deinterlace very well. But never the values of YCrCb that are calculated by the VC-1 or AVC decoder.

Any enhancement should be done by the display device as each display device has its own set of limitations and advantages that can be used to make the display better.

Principle is the same as CD audio PCM output should never ever be equalized by the CD player. That's the nature of digital AV.

I don't feel I put the 70% out of context one bit, but we'll just have to disagree on that. BB made their decision based on that figure and it is what it is for now. I'm sure they will adjust to the market further as time passes

What BB does now or in the future, based on whatever figure, is not germane to anything I'm saying.

BB is just operating on dollars and cents, strictly business. But YOU, being the home theater enthusiast you are, want to put it into the context of "home theater enthusiasts", for whatever reason. For all I know, it makes you feel better if you believe BB's decision is good for the "home theater enthusiast". But unfortunately, it is not. It represents a business decision to support the format that has the most rentals, NOT the format that is embraced by the "home theater enthusiasts". That format is HD DVD, which has been proven time and time again with MANY polls performed on this forum, and as I said earlier, almost assuredly is a reflection of all enthusiasts, whether or not they are members of AVS.

If OTOH, saying that BB is supporting the "home theater enthusiast market" is just some hype from you because you are a Blu-ray supporter, well then, that's what it is. Hype.

That is why Sony wants to win both, hence why HDMI 1.3 and Blu-Ray output at 1080p was included in the PS3 along with a much more powerful cpu than the 360 who's only advantage was a small increase in power with the graphics card that is arguably offset by the more powerful cell proc and wider flexibility to program with both cpu and gpu... The 360 coming to market a year earlier did allow it to gain a substantial early lead in the US and an HD-DVD drive inclusion could have all but ended this battle after the dismal SOny Blu-Ray launch with HOFD and TFE.. However in worldwide sales figures, the Ps3 will surpass 360 in sales as well as having the software sales lead for Blu-Ray at the same time if the current trend and lead continues. The 360 as a gaming console will do just fine at that time in 2nd place. However HD-DVD in 2nd place won't stay there forever and the 360's lack of an HD-DVD drive and HDMI ultimately may be what turns out to be the most important factor that caused HD-DVD to lose this format war.

Current trends are that sales of the PS3 are declining. Currently it's around 3M PS3 to over 11M X360. Clearly the "consumer has spoken" and Sony should simply throw the towel in now since Xbox 360 is clearly the winner... oh wait, now I sound like a blu-ray fanboy. :p

While PS3 is doing better in Japan and Europe than it is in the US, the US is the biggest gaming market on the planet, and here the PS3 is getting trounced.

If it makes you feel better, the PS3 now holds the spot in monthly sales that had previously been held by such stellar consoles as the Gamecube.

If it makes you feel better, the PS3 now holds the spot in monthly sales that had previously been held by such stellar consoles as the Gamecube.

GameCube essentially matched the XBox in sales last gen, it's worth noting. Right now PS3 is essentially the XBox - I imagine as PS3-centric games get released as years go by, it will enjoy the same surge in popularity that XBox did post Halo 2 in leading up to the 360 launch.

In Europe it'll do fine, beating the 360 probably, and in Japan it will pick up steam as time goes on, though never approaching the Wii likely.

PS3 is not PS2, but I think a lot of people fail to realize just how unique that console was in its sales performance.

images output via HDMI should never be enhanced. The output should be the exact result of what the decoder outputs in YCrCb, even the conversion rules from 4:2:0 is spelled out and cannot deviate.

Deinterlacing however if done properly is ok as displays don't deinterlace very well. But never the values of YCrCb that are calculated by the VC-1 or AVC decoder.

Any enhancement should be done by the display device as each display device has its own set of limitations and advantages that can be used to make the display better.

Principle is the same as CD audio PCM output should never ever be equalized by the CD player. That's the nature of digital AV.

We are talking about SD DVDs through the HDMI connection. Toshiba's XA2 does a better job of up-converting SD material.

-Robert

So lemme see....blockbuster's store limited RENTAL % is the definitve stat to go by? Umm, okay.

Seems pretty simple to me...there are about 5 quadrillion blu ray players in the market (via the ps3) yet software sales are not totally killing hd dvd (a 60/40 split when you're talking about these low disc sales is not that big) which has what less than 1/10th the player install base. How anyone can look at the SALES FIGURES and be impressed and spewing forth how hd dvd is done and all that jazz is beyond me.

The way I look at the Buster rental figures is that probably more hd dvd owners are BUYING their discs (you know, how studios mainly make the money) or the quadrillions of PS3 owners are not the big bluray movie backers as some here keep trying to brainwash people into thinking.

I for one do not care as I will continue to support both formats (and I use a PS3 to boot) but I am so sick of people in these forums totally ignoring the simple fact that the sales figure difference does not indicate any dominance by blu.

If there are 150k hd dvd players in use (just using that number) then I'd guess the REAL number of bluray players is around 200-250k. Wow, what a killing. :rolleyes:

Now if I see the longterm sales breakdown go to 90-10 or even 80-20 THEN we'll talk. But 60-40? PLEASE.I don't know if you are confused about the numbers or if you are purposely doing things like counting PS3s in Europe and Japan to trash the software ratio in the US or NA as some people like to do. Or why you seem to ignore all the XBOX360 add-ons. In the US or NA Blu-ray is likely around 1.4-1.5 million PS3s plus maybe 100k add-ons, with HD DVD likely having a combination at around 300k+ with the standalones and XBOX360 add-ons. If it was 1.5 million PS3s and they were contributing at about a 20% rate that would be about 400k vs 300k effectively.

If you want to look at other areas of the world it looks like HD DVD is getting trounced percentagewise in Japan where there are less than one million PS3s. PAL regions reportedly have about 1 million PS3s and the last stuff I saw gave a strong indication that Blu-ray has been outselling HD DVD significantly for software ever since the PS3 launched. I doubt it is even as close as it has been in the US for the last couple of months.

--Darin

PS3 is not PS2, but I think a lot of people fail to realize just how unique that console was in its sales performance.

Not so unique anymore. The Wii has just passed it in Japan based upon total consoles sold over the same span of time.

What do you think the landscape will look like if MS cuts the price of the 360 to $199 as Halo 3 hits stores here in the US?

Sony can not compete already, and that would just crush them. With just about every side by side comparison of identical games going in favor of the 360 over the PS3, can you imagine how ridiculous the high price tag of the PS3 will look next to a $199 console that can outperform it? Even IF they can cut $200 off of the PS3 price tag, it would still be twice as expensive.

It's way past the point where people should be looking to the PS3 as the savior of Blu Ray. The 360 nearly sold as many units as the PS3 this week in Japan, even though the PS3 had one of the best selling software titles released to date for that system. This is something that almost no one thought could ever happen under any circumstances.

Blockbuster needs to wake up and look at what they are getting in bed with here.

It's way past the point where people should be looking to the PS3 as the savior of Blu Ray. The 360 nearly sold as many units as the PS3 this week in Japan, even though the PS3 had one of the best selling software titles released to date for that system. This is something that almost no one thought could ever happen under any circumstances.

Sean I seem to be missing a point of yours here, because it seems to me you're equating the PS3's performance relative to the 360 as somehow indicative of its efficacy in aiding Blu-ray.

I think that shows how loosely - and incorrectly - some people blur the lines between the format war and the console war.

Newsflash: Wii or 360 outselling the PS3 does nothing at all for HD DVD. PS3 demand stands on its own as the sole determiner of its contribution to the format war, and thus far, its contribution has been immense.

It is presently the single definitive driver of high-def sales on either format, and it is the best player among all offerings on either side to boot.

We are talking about SD DVDs through the HDMI connection. Toshiba's XA2 does a better job of up-converting SD material.

-Robert

And how does it do better than the 1200 with the same chip for unconverting?

That is why Sony wants to win both, hence why HDMI 1.3 and Blu-Ray output at 1080p was included in the PS3 along with a much more powerful cpu than the 360 who's only advantage was a small increase in power with the graphics card that is arguably offset by the more powerful cell proc and wider flexibility to program with both cpu and gpu.
Slightly? LMAO - yeah, sure....whatever. The PS3 has an Nvidia 7900 series gpu, currently a budget gpu & DX9. The 360 has a recently released 2XXX series (ATI) - a DX10 gpu. Far more powerful & fully programmable. Flexibility? Sure, if that keeps you going. The PS3 will forever be a pain to program. No unified memory, SPUs using calls, many SPUs - it's complicated & not going to ever be easy. Sony built a specs box - great specs which are likely not terribly useful.

GameCube essentially matched the XBox in sales last gen, it's worth noting. Right now PS3 is essentially the XBox - I imagine as PS3-centric games get released as years go by, it will enjoy the same surge in popularity that XBox did post Halo 2 in leading up to the 360 launch.

PS3 is not PS2, but I think a lot of people fail to realize just how unique that console was in its sales performance.
Bummer that the market has changed.

What sold the PS2 in droves was exclusive content, too bad the market is too big for any developer to pass on any given console............unless heavily subsidized.

Given the complexity of the architecture it just too easy to develop on the 360 & then port to the PS3 - likely the way it will remain for this generation of consoles, the PS3 will be a port box.

Apparently Microshaft got it right this time, it would seem that putting the expensive hardware in an addon was the right move. They have the ability to drop the price on the 360 almost at will, Sony with the expensive build cost will likely never be able to match them across the lifespan of the console. Combined with little exclusive content = just no pressing "gotta have it" for the PS3 = lifetime of sluggish sales, ala the Gamecube.

Given flatline sales for the near future means Toshiba needs do nothing about the BB announcement. The BD sales will stay near where they are (given the attach rate) and as more & more HD-DVD players come into the market sales/rentals will grow with a higher attach rate.

The announcement is good PR, but I don't think it means much yet (& toss in the 3sec memory of consumers)

Apparently Microshaft got it right this time, it would seem that putting the expensive hardware in an addon was the right move. They have the ability to drop the price on the 360 almost at will, Sony with the expensive build cost will likely never be able to match them across the lifespan of the console. Combined with little exclusive content = just no pressing "gotta have it" for the PS3 = lifetime of sluggish sales, ala the Gamecube.

I compared it to XBox1 in market positioning at this time - I maintain that position. Third-party devs have little reason to push the hardware... but first party devs do, and from there is where the better games in a generation always originate. What was XBox but a system for one singular game until post-Halo 2 it gained momentum? You're being pretty narrow on the subject if you think that the "gotta have em" games I'm referring to won't come out of SCE themselves, but some other place. Frankly I think there's enough of a positive halo effect building around the console of late that things should start to improve in its public perception/uptake. But, we'll see.

I want to point out to you also that as the years go by, the singular cost that will keep the PS3 more expensive than the 360 is hard drive inclusion... and since most 360's are sold with a hard drive themselves, this delta will be essentially irrelevant. Sony is in a better position to reduce the cost of their console going forward, with 65nm production already reached, one round of chip composition revision already undertaken with the removal of the EE+GS, and a price reduction/maturity curve that will see the Blu-ray inclusion cost only a couple of dollars more than a DVD drive four years from now.

People think of cost reduction in arbitrary terms, such as what the starting price was, or how long the product has been out for. But in truth it is more complex than that, and in that actual criteria that matters for reducing costs, it need be recognized that Sony has better leveraging than MS. Now - of course MS can reduce the price at any time, and will of course be the less expensive of the two for many years to come.

PS - Xenos is not a DX10 part.

And how does it do better than the 1200 with the same chip for unconverting?

It does not. Just look at the Secrets site:
BD-P1200 (http://www.hometheaterhifi.com/cgi-bin/shootout.cgi?function=search&articles=133#SamsungBD-P1200%20(HDMI))
XA2 (http://www.hometheaterhifi.com/cgi-bin/shootout.cgi?function=search&articles=133#ToshibaHD-XA2 (HDMI))

Recovery time is a little shorter on XA2. Responsiveness and layer change are better on the BD-P1200. All other results are the same. The Samsung scored 96, and the Toshiba 95.

lets just wait for the E3 show in beginning of July for the PS3. that show will make or break the Ps3 in 2007 if we are talking about games.

lets just wait for the E3 show in beginning of July for the PS3. that show will make or break the Ps3 in 2007 if we are talking about games.

We already had gamers day. I really don't care to see more pics and movies of future titles, I want to purchase and play the games we have already seen.

Also, they need to be careful, I went from wanting to purchase Lair to wanting to rent it based on the gameplay movies.

edit to be on topic: Of course as a Blockbuster Total Access customer I will be able to rent Lair for free ;)

I disagree on the pricing of the consoles, but as you said -

But, we'll see.

And that's one I think we can all agree on :)

It does not. Just look at the Secrets site:
BD-P1200 (http://www.hometheaterhifi.com/cgi-bin/shootout.cgi?function=search&articles=133#SamsungBD-P1200%20(HDMI))
XA2 (http://www.hometheaterhifi.com/cgi-bin/shootout.cgi?function=search&articles=133#ToshibaHD-XA2 (HDMI))

Recovery time is a little shorter on XA2. Responsiveness and layer change are better on the BD-P1200. All other results are the same. The Samsung scored 96, and the Toshiba 95.

We all know that this is impossible. Just ask Robert:

Supermans ^ Toshiba's XA2 has excellent image enhancement tools that are lacking in Samsung's BD-P1200. What good is a race car with no accelerator pedal?

-Robert

Rob and Grubert, regardless of what may have been published at Secrets, I hope you gentlemen believe the XA2's image enhancement tools, when properly set-up provide a better up-converted SD DVD picture quality vs. Samsung's BD-P1200 with no image enhancement application.

Just in case any forum member(s) would like to come to my theater showroom for a shoot-out let me know. I have JVC's HD-1 1080p 24 Hz projecting onto a Da-Lite matte white 110" screen with Samsung's BD-P1200, Panasonic's BDMP-BD10A and Toshiba's HD-XA2.

-Robert

Rob and Grubert, regardless of what may have been published at Secrets, I hope you gentlemen believe the XA2's image enhancement tools, when properly set-up provide a better up-converted SD DVD picture quality vs. Samsung's BD-P1200 with no image enhancement application.

I am not much of a believer in "image enhancement tools" within a player. Perhaps you could tell us exactly what these tools are that you believe make the difference?

Just in case any forum member(s) would like to come to my theater showroom for a shoot-out let me know. I have JVC's HD-1 1080p 24 Hz projecting onto a Da-Lite matte white 110" screen with Samsung's BD-P1200, Panasonic's BDMP-BD10A and Toshiba's HD-XA2.

-Robert

Well, you do have good taste in projectors! ;)

I am not much of a believer in "image enhancement tools" within a player. Perhaps you could tell us exactly what these tools are that you believe make the difference?



Well, you do have good taste in projectors! ;)

Rob, Toshiba's image enhancement application does an excellent job of edge enhancement. You can actually easily see the improvement as you adjust the settings. Not sure how they work as I am not a Toshiba development engineer, but they do an excellent job of unleashing the power of the Reon video processor.

I do love the projector and have one in my home theater and our store theater demo room.

-Robert

Rob, Toshiba's image enhancement application does an excellent job of edge enhancement. You can actually easily see the improvement as you adjust the settings. Not sure how they work as I am not a Toshiba development engineer, but they do an excellent job of unleashing the power of the Reon video processor.

I do love the projector and have one in my home theater and our store theater demo room.

-Robert

I was wondering if this is what you were talking about. I guess I would have to see it to believe it, because I have a very difficult time believing that adding "edge enhancement" to a DVD would be a good thing, especially on a front projection setup such as the one you are using!

Rob, please stop by my store and we'll enjoy a nice cab to further enhance the experience.

-Robert

Rob and Grubert, regardless of what may have been published at Secrets, I hope you gentlemen believe the XA2's image enhancement tools, when properly set-up provide a better up-converted SD DVD picture quality vs. Samsung's BD-P1200 with no image enhancement application.

Just in case any forum member(s) would like to come to my theater showroom for a shoot-out let me know. I have JVC's HD-1 1080p 24 Hz projecting onto a Da-Lite matte white 110" screen with Samsung's BD-P1200, Panasonic's BDMP-BD10A and Toshiba's HD-XA2.

-Robert

I can't speak for Rob and Grubert but I am going to trust the Secrets guys on this one.

Not saying who is right, but I think it's entirely possible to put the same engine in two race cars with one of the cars being clearly superior.

TV makers, camera makers, VHS, DV, DVD makers, etc. all use a variety of "tricks" to improve performance.

Even using the audio analogy, look at the wide variety of microphones available. Gosh, if we just had one perfectly flat microphone, that's the only one we'd need!

Dave

I can't speak for Rob and Grubert but I am going to trust the Secrets guys on this one.

I think you can speak for me then! ;)

Not saying who is right, but I think it's entirely possible to put the same engine in two race cars with one of the cars being clearly superior.

TV makers, camera makers, VHS, DV, DVD makers, etc. all use a variety of "tricks" to improve performance.

Even using the audio analogy, look at the wide variety of microphones available. Gosh, if we just had one perfectly flat microphone, that's the only one we'd need!

Dave

It is of course possible to use the same chip in a DVD player and get different performance. However the leading authority has tested both the players and found them to be almost identical in performance.

Rob, Toshiba's image enhancement application does an excellent job of edge enhancement. You can actually easily see the improvement as you adjust the settings. Not sure how they work as I am not a Toshiba development engineer, but they do an excellent job of unleashing the power of the Reon video processor.I want to make sure I'm clear here. You are talking about adding edge enhancement, right? Things like generally can make some things look better and bring out nasty looking things on other images. Are you watching with a small screen, or a big screen? It seems like those with larger screens scream louder about the edge enhancement that some of these companies put on discs.

We know that blowing out the colors and making something super bright will make people notice a TV more in the store and prefer it there compared to setting things up to ISF specs. But a lot of people would argue about whether that is better. This sounds similar, although I haven't tried the edge enhancement with my XA2. I usually more interested in getting rid of EE.

--Darin

Remember folks, studios don't care much about rentals...they want SALES.

They don't make much $$ off of video stores that buy a few copies and rent out a zillion times. They make money off of sell-through to the consumer. This is a mole-hill, not a mountain.

Ewell,well said

Edge Enhancement makes me :( <----SadFace

I love the edge enhancement on my Mits 57732 (hardly high end equipment), I turn it on for SD and HD DVD's at progressive scans and off for interlaced satellite and OTA broadcast sources. It's a cheap parlor trick that does the job very, very nicely!

Quote:
Originally Posted by egcarter
Remember folks, studios don't care much about rentals...they want SALES.

They don't make much $$ off of video stores that buy a few copies and rent out a zillion times. They make money off of sell-through to the consumer. This is a mole-hill, not a mountain.

Tvine
well,well said

What makes you think Blockbuster or Hollywood Video or Netflix buys their movies? They don't anymore. This stopped years ago. Maybe to some Mom & Pop store but no the majors.

They have revenue sharing agreements with the studios. On a per rental basis - so much for the renter - so much for the studio. For monthly subs - again same thing. The renters get the movies in esence for free,

And rental revenue for DVD in 2006 was $7.5 billion - so yes they really do care about rentals. The sales give them money up front as oposed to over a longer period of time. If the rental stays popular they will have made more money by renting that one DVD as opposed to selling it.

In other words, Netflix rents the DVD's they rent to us!?!? :eek:

;)

In other words, Netflix rents the DVD's they rent to us!?!? :eek:

;)

Yes . . . in simple terms.

Here is another "you may not know this fact" about movie theaters.

1. They bid for the movie

2. The portion of the ticket that goes to the studio versus to the theater is on a sliding scale.

Example:

Week 1 - 90% to studio, 10% to theater

Week 2 - 80% to studio, 20% to theater

Week 3 - 65% to studio, 35% to theater

For all of the the Star Wars movies EXCEPT Star Wars - Lucas got 100% of the ticket for the first week.

And this is why the theaters LOVED Titanic and the studios that made it almost had heart attack, because when it goes past 5 weeks ( I believe) the numbers reverse with the theater getiting something like 80% and the studios getting 20%.

Titanic was in the theaters a whole year! The theaters made a killing and the studios got very little in relationship to the total box office revenue.

Yes . . . in simple terms.

Right. I mean it must be more complicated than that. For example, I know that Netflix sells used/rented discs for purchase.

Right. I mean it must be more complicated than that. For example, I know that Netflix sells used/rented discs for purchase..

Right again as does BB. So after so many rentals they sell them - split the money with the studio or buy them outright from the studio and mark them up.

On release day you will see 50 copies of a movie. First 30 days bring in the most revenue because it's new. They have limited shelf space. Then as time goes one - they might keep 10 and sell off the rest, then 5 and eventually they retain 1 copy.

The studios don't want them back.

Titanic was in the theaters a whole year! The theaters made a killing and the studios got very little in relationship to the total box office revenue.

Titanic broke the mold when it came to box office. And not because of it's record take. It is because in the first few weeks, it made around 25MM a week. HOWEVER, unlike most movies which lose 1/2 of their business each following week, Titanic kept making 25MM a week for around 4-5 months, at times INCREASING it's box office from the previous week. This is simply unhread of.

Funny thing about it. Titanic was supposed to be released in the summer, but was over-budget, and Cameron was relentless. He wouldn't take any shortcuts, and money kept pouring into it. It finally was released in winter, and it was the best thing that could have happened. It turned out that the movie worked as well as a love story as an action/adventure yarn with great FX, so both men and women kept going back on date night to see it.

What I don't understand is why Toshiba doesn't go and pay a huge sum of money to either Best Buy/Target/Hollywood Video to push HD-DVD. It seems like it would be the obvious solution to their problems at this point. They have already invested enough money into their format that a few million dollars can't hurt to help promote. They need to lower the price of their combo discs and completely replace the standard definition ones on the market. If every HD-DVD backed company released all their movies on the combo discs only and kept them at normal release prices it would benefit them greatly. Just think of the couple buying Jurassic Park and seeing it is a combo disc wouldn't get them thinking of how well it would look on a HD-DVD player. Just take the option out of people's hands and release the combo at the same price as SD releases. Only release the combo formats. I believe this would generate interest and sales of every release in the future and may kickstart a comeback.

First time poster on these forums, but long time reader. Very interested to see replies to what I wrote.

Have a good day.

They need to lower the price of their combo discs and completely replace the standard definition ones on the market.
toshiba don't release movies in the usa, so it's not their decision as to whether titles are released on combo or dvd.

which has no studio support at all. seems pretty much still born.

What I don't understand is why Toshiba doesn't go and pay a huge sum of money to either Best Buy/Target/Hollywood Video to push HD-DVD. It seems like it would be the obvious solution to their problems at this point. They have already invested enough money into their format that a few million dollars can't hurt to help promote. They need to lower the price of their combo discs and completely replace the standard definition ones on the market. If every HD-DVD backed company released all their movies on the combo discs only and kept them at normal release prices it would benefit them greatly. Just think of the couple buying Jurassic Park and seeing it is a combo disc wouldn't get them thinking of how well it would look on a HD-DVD player. Just take the option out of people's hands and release the combo at the same price as SD releases. Only release the combo formats. I believe this would generate interest and sales of every release in the future and may kickstart a comeback.
Aside from the QC problems that combo discs have had for HD DVD, the movie studios (who are ones directing the actual production of the discs) know from past experience with DVD-18 dual layer and similar technologies that double sided discs simply do not have much appeal to the mass market. There's confusion regarding which side is which (yes, I know the sides are labelled, but a sizable enough proportion of people would miss that to cause a customer service headache).

That's assuming the price doesn't budge from the current DVD pricing.

But wait, the whole idea of shifting to HD DVD and Blu-ray for the studios isn't about just improving PQ/AQ. It's about making more money by selling content - again - to people who already have lesser versions, or bringing in new buyers. In this context, a combo disc priced the same as a DVD would not be sensible for the studios, since the production capacity couldn't begin to match the standard DVD demand for new titles, and the extra production cost would eat into their already-shrinking margins.

I've seen this possibility brought up time and again by people on both sides of the fence (more often from the HD DVD side because the combo discs are actually in limited use there) and have never seen a sensibly economical reason why any studio would choose to do so.

Let's not get into just how badly profit margins would slip if their pricing increased, since they'd sell fewer copies.

P.S. Why is it that HD DVD enthusiasts who support this pipe dream idea are also usually the ones bashing the PS3 for doing exactly the same thing (with almost exactly the same effects as I described above)?

Console gaming is supposed to eclipse the movie industry in total profits this year or next year.

If Console gaming is going to eclipse the entire movie industry in profts then I stand by my statement that it would be far better for Sony and their shareholders to win the console war than to win the HD media war.

Just like how the HD-DVD supporters keep referencing that the format "war" is not over, I can safely say the the console war barley just started. People who are announcing that the Xbox360 won the console war is very naive in that fact that we won't know until at the end of 08 who the clear leader is. I admit that the PS3 is behind in sales and need a strategic move such as a price cut and more games but to say the war is over is very naive.

In fact, I still think the PS3 will come out ahead in 5 years time but with a smaller market share than the PS2.

Just like how the HD-DVD supporters keep referencing that the format "war" is not over, I can safely say the the console war barley just started. People who are announcing that the Xbox360 won the console war is very naive in that fact that we won't know until at the end of 08 who the clear leader is. I admit that the PS3 is behind in sales and need a strategic move such as a price cut and more games but to say the war is over is very naive.

In fact, I still think the PS3 will come out ahead in 5 years time but with a smaller market share than the PS2.

You have repeatedly said that the format war is over and that BD won. Someone posted something in another thread about when people "knew" that the format war was over before it was announced as being over and you said;

That matter of time is fall of 07 .

And now you are going off about how the console war is "not over" even though Sony's sales are lagging and X360 and Wii are trouncing it in sales?

It seems that you like to call things the way you would like to see them, rather than based on any kind of reality. Or, to put it another way, it's ok to call it over for the side you don't like (HD DVD) and root for the side you do like even if they are lagging in sales and market share (PS3).

And now you are going off about how the console war is "not over" even though Sony's sales are lagging and X360 and Wii are trouncing it in sales?

It seems that you like to call things the way you would like to see them, rather than based on any kind of reality. Or, to put it another way, it's ok to call it over for the side you don't like (HD DVD) and root for the side you do like even if they are lagging in sales and market share (PS3).
There's a difference here, though.

The PS3 has cards yet to play. Price cuts, plus a very nice stable of incoming exclusive games over the next 6 months should put it in a much better position for the holidays.

What does HD DVD have now? Toshiba's trying the hardware pricing card, and it still didn't help them. Blu-ray software sales continue to outperform HD DVD despite one major studio being MIA. Hardware sales seem to not be as lopsided as the HD DVD PRG would have us believe, if they're claiming only 60% of the standalone market. To the mass market consumer, both formats seem about equal in quality and software price, and there's an open question now about where the price points will be come this holiday season with announced Chinese Blu-ray units coming this fall (and where are the HD DVD units that have been talked about for over a year?).

I'm not counting Toshiba out at this point; they've got some really smart people working for them and I'm sure they'll pull out all the stops to make sure they can stay in the game, but only a blind man would say they don't have the deck stacked against them at this point.

There's a difference here, though.

The PS3 has cards yet to play. Price cuts, plus a very nice stable of incoming exclusive games over the next 6 months should put it in a much better position for the holidays.

What does HD DVD have now? Toshiba's trying the hardware pricing card, and it still didn't help them. Blu-ray software sales continue to outperform HD DVD despite one major studio being MIA. Hardware sales seem to not be as lopsided as the HD DVD PRG would have us believe, if they're claiming only 60% of the standalone market. To the mass market consumer, both formats seem about equal in quality and software price, and there's an open question now about where the price points will be come this holiday season with announced Chinese Blu-ray units coming this fall (and where are the HD DVD units that have been talked about for over a year?).

I'm not counting Toshiba out at this point; they've got some really smart people working for them and I'm sure they'll pull out all the stops to make sure they can stay in the game, but only a blind man would say they don't have the deck stacked against them at this point.

We actually don't know how the Toshiba price cut card "played out" because the sales numbers haven't been released yet.

The funny thing is that even if they moved 60K HDA2s (and D2s at Wally World and Costco) the BD FUD factory will still say it's a non event because their 1.6M players still hold an advantage in software sales.

Many people who got the new players are going to send in for the free HD movies and not run out and purchase any... and even if they do start to buy HD movies it will take a month or two for us to start to see the software numbers reflect that.

If Toshiba plays the "price cut" card again they should make it a permanent price cut AND play it Sony's way with a buy 2 get 1 free coupon in the box along with an HD reference title so people can see what HD DVD can do on their setup.

That card hasn't been played yet but I have a sneaky suspicion that something along those lines is going to be up Toshiba's sleeve next.

They aren't idiots, they aren't throwing in the towel. If anything they probably are learning a thing or two from Sony's playbook on how to buy friends and influence people. ;)

We actually don't know how the Toshiba price cut card "played out" because the sales numbers haven't been released yet.

I'd say their curtailing of their sales projection speaks volumes about just how much impact their price cut had.

The funny thing is that even if they moved 60K HDA2s (and D2s at Wally World and Costco) the BD FUD factory will still say it's a non event because their 1.6M players still hold an advantage in software sales.

Many people who got the new players are going to send in for the free HD movies and not run out and purchase any... and even if they do start to buy HD movies it will take a month or two for us to start to see the software numbers reflect that.
What makes you think that someone who is not inclined to purchase titles because they "already own 5 for the moment" will be magically more inclined to buy more titles in the future? People buy what they want; the only sales that ought to be impacted are the sales of the titles that they can get for free.

If Toshiba plays the "price cut" card again they should make it a permanent price cut AND play it Sony's way with a buy 2 get 1 free coupon in the box along with an HD reference title so people can see what HD DVD can do on their setup.

That card hasn't been played yet but I have a sneaky suspicion that something along those lines is going to be up Toshiba's sleeve next.
Of course, there's the issue of less perceived value in 1 free + coupons vs. 5 free period.

They aren't idiots, they aren't throwing in the towel. If anything they probably are learning a thing or two from Sony's playbook on how to buy friends and influence people. ;)
On this, at least, we agree. I don't think Toshiba's going to just lay down and give up, but I'm coming to the conclusion that the fate of HD DVD is no longer strictly in their hands.

I'd say their curtailing of their sales projection speaks volumes about just how much impact their price cut had.

No, they cut sales projections before they even know what the effect of the price cut would be.

You are saying that they realized that even with price cuts they couldn't move their projected 1.8M players and then cut the projections, but that's not the timeline I have for those events.

What makes you think that someone who is not inclined to purchase titles because they "already own 5 for the moment" will be magically more inclined to buy more titles in the future? People buy what they want; the only sales that ought to be impacted are the sales of the titles that they can get for free.

I can only offer my anecdotal evidence here, as I know several people who have bought HD DVD players at Costco and are "waiting on their free discs" before buying any movies. In the meantime they are renting them.

Of course, there's the issue of less perceived value in 1 free + coupons vs. 5 free period.

It's more than perceived value. Sony's way of doing their promotion helped with the retail scan numbers of BD discs, Toshiba's promotion never even counts towards those numbers that everyone is so obsessed with.

On this, at least, we agree. I don't think Toshiba's going to just lay down and give up, but I'm coming to the conclusion that the fate of HD DVD is no longer strictly in their hands.

No more than the fate of BD is squarely in Sony's hands. What would happen if a BD studio went neutral or a BD exclusive CE went dual format or produced an HD DVD standalone.

While it's hard times for the HD DVD faithful right now, "it ain't over till it's over".

I'd say their curtailing of their sales projection speaks volumes about just how much impact their price cut had.
Um...ah....it can also mean that HD media in general isn't meeting expected projections. The avg consumer just doesn't seem to care, not one bit.

No, they cut sales projections before they even know what the effect of the price cut would be.

You are saying that they realized that even with price cuts they couldn't move their projected 1.8M players and then cut the projections, but that's not the timeline I have for those events.
You can't be serious if you're suggesting that they released a projection without the knowledge that they had some sort of sales boost coming down the pipeline. I give Toshiba a bit more credit than that; you should, too.

You can't be serious if you're suggesting that they released a projection without the knowledge that they had some sort of sales boost coming down the pipeline. I give Toshiba a bit more credit than that; you should, too.

The revised estimate is still a generous 1 million, I assume they are hoping the price cut and future cheap players sell very well in the very near future.

No, they cut sales projections before they even know what the effect of the price cut would be.

You are saying that they realized that even with price cuts they couldn't move their projected 1.8M players and then cut the projections, but that's not the timeline I have for those events.From what I recall the projection cut came well after the sale had started, Toshiba had bragged about how much sales had picked up, then bragged about having 60/40 for standalone players. I'm pretty sure the news about the projection cut was after they had gone from claiming about 100k players sold in April to 150k players sold later (largely because of the $100 instant rebate on the HD-A2).

--Darin

From what I recall the projection cut came well after the sale had started, Toshiba had bragged about how much sales had picked up, then bragged about having 60/40 for standalone players. I'm pretty sure the news about the projection cut was after they had gone from claiming about 100k players sold in April to 150k players sold later (largely because of the $100 instant rebate on the HD-A2).

--Darin

Guess we'll see when the June numbers come out (assuming they announce them). At one point they had indicated that they had sold 5X as many players as they had expected to sell during the promotion.

Any way you look at it, the Blockbuster thing is bad for HD-DVD.

You can argue that people will now rent BR titles instead of purchase, but the truth is that every consumer who walks into a BB that's exclusively BR (or mostly so) will have BR on their minds when they think about going Hi-Def.

This will translate into player sales down the road, and more people thinking BR instead of HD-DVD when it comes time to buy a player. By then BR players will be in the $300 range.

I'll bet my bottom dollar that Toshiba is working OT to try to woo another large rental chain into adopting them exclusively in an attempt to counter this huge blow.

This one hurt -- no 2 ways about it.

No more than the fate of BD is squarely in Sony's hands. What would happen if a BD studio went neutral or a BD exclusive CE went dual format or produced an HD DVD standalone.

While it's hard times for the HD DVD faithful right now, "it ain't over till it's over".

You're in a dreamland lala-land on this one if you think there is even a remote chance any BD studio at this point in time would go neutral.

You're in a dreamland lala-land on this one if you think there is even a remote chance any BD studio at this point in time would go neutral.

At this point in time, yes, I agree. What if there are 1M HD DVD standalones sold over the holidays? 2M? At a certain point a studios pride gets in the way of making money. Which is what stockholders expect them to do.

At this point in time, yes, I agree. What if there are 1M HD DVD standalones sold over the holidays? 2M? At a certain point a studios pride gets in the way of making money. Which is what stockholders expect them to do.

Makes you wonder what Universal Studios stockholders are thinking about now, eh? ;)

Makes you wonder what Universal Studios stockholders are thinking about now, eh? ;)

No more than stockholders of the other exclusive studios think about "missing out" on sales on the other side of the aisle.

In other words, not much. Hot new SD DVD releases sell more in one week than HD DVD and BD do in total combined sales in an entire calendar year.

No more than stockholders of the other exclusive studios think about "missing out" on sales on the other side of the aisle.

In other words, not much. Hot new SD DVD releases sell more in one week than HD DVD and BD do in total combined sales in an entire calendar year.


I agree that the SD-DVD market is where the money is at right now still. However stockholders do pay attention to the format war which will replace SD-DVD revenue in the coming years. Toshiba has the most to lose since they make a revenue for every SD-DVD sold. I would suspect the company would suffer the most if Blu-Ray won this foramt war not because HD-DVD is no longer there, but because the company would project a loss each year in the billions which would mean many lay-offs for the company.. At that point the battle will shift to HD-DVD media vs Blu-ray media for the PC market. However even that is a crapshoot for Toshiba since Blu-Ray holds more info and by that time should cost the same to mass prodice blank discs.. Stockholders in Universal stock will want then to go format neutral if Blu-Ray is making at least 30% of the market share vs SD-DVD alone..

I agree that the SD-DVD market is where the money is at right now still. However stockholders do pay attention to the format war which will replace SD-DVD revenue in the coming years. Toshiba has the most to lose since they make a revenue for every SD-DVD sold. I would suspect the company would suffer the most if Blu-Ray won this foramt war not because HD-DVD is no longer there, but because the company would project a loss each year in the billions which would mean many lay-offs for the company.. At that point the battle will shift to HD-DVD media vs Blu-ray media for the PC market. However even that is a crapshoot for Toshiba since Blu-Ray holds more info and by that time should cost the same to mass prodice blank discs.. Stockholders in Universal stock will want then to go format neutral if Blu-Ray is making at least 30% of the market share vs SD-DVD alone..

Good points - except HDM total revenue (sales and rentals) represents .03% of the total optical media revenue.

.03% to 30% is going to take a loooooog time. And other HD delivery systems are not going to be standing still during this time period.

NOTE: they are selling in the USA, an average of 1.1 million DVD players every month

More than 1 out of every 2 people who have an HDTV don't want HD. There goes more than half of your potential buyers for HDM (56% versus 44%)

More than 1 out of every 2 people who have an HDTV don't want HD. There goes more than half of your potential buyers for HDM (56% versus 44%)
Sorry, but I just can't let this stand. It is true that more than half of those who have HDTV-capable displays don't receive HDTV on them, but it is silly to assume they don't want HD. There is a cost involved for most to receive HD (assuming they aren't capable of putting up an OTA antenna or at least willing to do it) and many aren't ready to incur that added expense. Many more think they are already getting HDTV.

I would say many of those 44% who you say don't want HD would actually be excellent candidates for HDD now or in the near future.

Sorry, but I just can't let this stand. It is true that more than half of those who have HDTV-capable displays don't receive HDTV on them, but it is silly to assume they don't want HD. There is a cost involved for most to receive HD (assuming they aren't capable of putting up an OTA antenna or at least willing to do it) and many aren't ready to incur that added expense. Many more think they are already getting HDTV.

I would say many of those who you say don't want HD are excellent candidates for HDD now or in the near future.

http://www.twice.com/article/CA6455975.html

Did you happen to read the part that said "The main reasons consumers stated for not receiving the [HD] programming was that it was too expensive or they were not interested."

Did you happen to read the part that said "The main reasons consumers stated for not receiving the [HD] programming was that it was too expensive or they were not interested."

Of course I did. And the price for HD isn't going down - it will only go up. You said:

Many more think they are already getting HDTV.

Well the article/study doesn't reinforce that does it?