I'd like to try to guage just how much the average person here thinks the Blockbuster move has devastated the format race for HD DVD.

Vote in the poll and then let us know in reply what impact the Blockbuster announcement had on your own general opinions of the formats and the war.

Then maybe we can use the results of this poll/thread to determine how this really affects the perception of the average person, and therefore the outcome of the war overall.

Blockbuster will not be a deciding factor in the format war.

I feel the Blockbuster announcement permanently placed HD-DVD forever behind Blu-ray. This annoucement in addition to Toshiba cutting expectations by 44%, with Starz/ Anchor Bay going Blu-ray Exclusive and with Fox finally getting back in the game have placed HD-DVD in a "fight for life" mode. Did I also mention the Chinese Blu-ray players seem to be near the marketplace as well. For all intents and purposes, this war is over.

~Josh

The move itself was damaging, but not a killer blow. However, the way the MSP is reacting to this report seems to be a tidal wave of bad news for the red format that is more damaging than the move itself.

I don't know which is doing worse damage : TV-week's coverage or wall street journal coverage.

The couch potatoes who read TV-week are TV addicts and get good milage out of their TVs, and might be piqued. The well-heeled are now told by WSJ that this blockbuster move is a significant one. What will happen next?

Well, it seems HD DVD PG is in check, and we will be watching how they respond to this dastardly move from the BDA.

I agree that the press coverage is at least as devastating as the move itself (although the resulting bump in disk sales..to BB if nothing else...and the resulting consumer awareness of Blu-ray will be affecting the war for months to come), but I don't separate the two issues. The effect of the announcement to the press was not coincidental. This truly was a well thought-out move, and I suspect the dominos are not going to be stopped before the holidays.

Someone please hide the razor blades from me. This announcement is "that" serious ;)

It's not crushing news for HD-DVD, but then again, it's definitely not a step in the right direction either. It very well may have an impact, but quite frankly, it's still way too early to tell.

Why is this not a public poll?

...this annoucement in addition to Toshiba cutting expectations by 44%... Yeah, this hurts because it is Toshiba basically saying that under the best conditions they will only be able to sell about 1.1 million players total by the end of the year. Well, with the Blockbuster announcement and all the rest of the BD momentum you finally have many HD DVD-only supporters willing to also go neutral or even switch to BD totally. This factor plus the PS3 and all Sony will do to sell it over Christmas practically guarantee that there will be 3 to 3.5 million BD players out in the wild by Jan 1.

3.5 million with 90 percent of the studio support versus 1.1 million is bad news.

And, in general, the first format to reach 5 million dedicated players sold will be declared the winner by everyone without question. Once SD DVD hit 5 million players that was when you saw Fox/Disney abandoned Divx and every company on earth support the format like it was God's gift to the future of movies.

How many movies ( DVD, HD DVD or Blu-ray) do you rent from a BB store (not online store) each year?

Why is this not a public poll? I have mixed feelings about public polls - to me, it seems they get less votes only because people don't want to have to explain their rationales and not because they are not being honest.

I didnt vote, but I did want to say that the phrasing of the question is rather interesting, and does suggest what the OP's opinion and bias are.

The term "devastation" means something bad and negative. A more neutral way of stating it, without all the baggage associated with the term devastation, would have been "how important/critical".

Just my two cents.

Amiable,

This factor plus the PS3 and all Sony will do to sell it over Christmas practically guarantee that there will be 3 to 3.5 million BD players out in the wild by Jan 1

Where did you get that figure of 3 million units in the wild. Currently there are approximately 1.5 million players. Of that number, roughly 100K are stand alone units.

According to NPD numbers, the PS3 is currently selling at around 100K a month, on a good month, which gets you about 600K units.

Thus you would have about 2.1 million units by the end of the year.

To the best of my knowledge Sony has not predicted 1.4 million units sold in 6 months.

So, where did you get the idea of 3.5 million units, or is this just your guess.

I gave it an 8.

How many movies ( DVD, HD DVD or Blu-ray) do you rent from a BB store (not online store) each year? With Blockbuster Total Access and Blockbuster Monthly Movie Pass, I probably rent several hundred. I also have the Blockbuster Annual Rewards card which allows me to rent one get one free Mon-Weds and sometimes, but more rarely, I do that too. A lot of my friends going to college who don't have any jobs (or "serious jobs" anyway) do the same thing mainly because they have a lot of time on their hands.

I do such because for the past few years I have had a crapload of free time since my wife has been supporting us while I finish grad school and do some low-maintenance real estate work.

The press coverage all week has been increasingly bad for HD DVD. I think it is close to being true that the media sees this as the tipping point.

These things are often about perception.

I feel the Blockbuster announcement permanently placed HD-DVD forever behind Blu-ray.

That's kind of funny, considering the Blu-ray format isn't even finalized yet.

See you in October! ;)

IAccording to NPD numbers, the PS3 is currently selling at around 100K a month, on a good month, which gets you about 600K units.

Thus you would have about 2.1 million units by the end of the year.I don't know the likely numbers, but consoles don't tend to sell as low in December as in May.

--Darin

See you in October! ;)

Why? Is that when you will be joining the Blu Team? :)

~Josh

I feel the Blockbuster announcement permanently placed HD-DVD forever behind Blu-ray. This annoucement in addition to Toshiba cutting expectations by 44%, with Starz/ Anchor Bay going Blu-ray Exclusive and with Fox finally getting back in the game have placed HD-DVD in a "fight for life" mode. Did I also mention the Chinese Blu-ray players seem to be near the marketplace as well. For all intents and purposes, this war is over.

~Josh

Josh -

(From Howard Stringer) "The check will be slightly delayed this week. Keep up the good work".

I didnt vote, but I did want to say that the phrasing of the question is rather interesting, and does suggest what the OP's opinion and bias are.

The term "devastation" means something bad and negative. A more neutral way of stating it, without all the baggage associated with the term devastation, would have been "how important/critical".



Agree. Maybe it should have been something like, "Rate how much of a crushing death blow you see the blockbuster move to be to that feeble format known as HD DVD."

I didnt vote, but I did want to say that the phrasing of the question is rather interesting, and does suggest what the OP's opinion and bias are.

The term "devastation" means something bad and negative. A more neutral way of stating it, without all the baggage associated with the term devastation, would have been "how important/critical". *sighs* funny how people can pour a lot of thought and assumptions into one word, little things like this in general. I only used the term "devastating" because my topic was phrased to be in relation to the war, how this affects the war. I needed to use a word that meant "affects something in a war". That word is devastating. Important/critical aren't really synonyms for "affects". BTW, I have no bias. I'm an HD DVD-only owner actually with an A1, an XA2, and 50 titles. I don't have BD but I do want the war to hurry up and end no matter how it does. I haven't purchased a new title since January due to my frustration with the contentiousness of the war.

Where did you get that figure of 3 million units in the wild. Currently there are approximately 1.5 million players. Of that number, roughly 100K are stand alone units.

According to NPD numbers, the PS3 is currently selling at around 100K a month, on a good month, which gets you about 600K units.

Thus you would have about 2.1 million units by the end of the year.

To the best of my knowledge Sony has not predicted 1.4 million units sold in 6 months.

So, where did you get the idea of 3.5 million units, or is this just your guess. Yes, it is just my guess like all such predictions we non-insiders make on these boards. However it is based on the following: 1) the fact that 90% of consumer purchases for the year are made during the holidays 2) the fact that I'm talking about worldwide and not just US 3) the assumption that the PS3 will lower its price and have many (or more) great games out by the holidays 4) the assumption that Fox/Disney will do a good job getting out major titles during the holidays 5) the fact that BD stand-alones and dual format players will be out with lower prices by the holidays

Also, remember Sony originally predicted 4 million PS3 units would have been sold by last March, so I'm assuming that they will at least try to match that (a number they promised to stockholders/the world) by the end of the year.

Josh -

(From Howard Stringer) "The check will be slightly delayed this week. Keep up the good work".

(From Plazman) "Perception Is Reality, But Not The Reality."

Eventhough HD-DVD is not and will not be dead this year, the perception to the general public and media is that it will be dead this year with Blu-ray winning the war.

~Josh

The problem with this week's announcements about BB, public perception, two small studios going to BD, BD+, chinese blu-ray player, etc is that it makes it less likely that hd-dvd can achieve one of it's big goals; which is to get one or more of the BD studios to go neutral. The fact that the $100 rebate has ended recently doesn't help either.

They need to drop the players' prices permanently again or reenable the $100 rebate to try to regain momentum that they're losing.

It's not as "devastating" as having a major studio switch sides or go neutral, but it really doesn't help, especially if you're already seen as the underdog.

So, if devastating is too strong, in the interest of not offending some of us here, how about we use the following terms instead of devastating?
Unpleasant
Uncomfortable
Uncool
Unfriendly
and my personal favorite
1. Not Nice
:cool:

Eventhough HD-DVD is not and will not be dead this year, the perception to the general public and media is that it will be dead this year with Blu-ray winning the war.

The "media" you speak of are nothing more than PR outlets for these sorts of things, simply repeating the story they've been told.

Also, have any figures to back up that part about the general public? (No, not this poll....)

Basically, what you're saying is that Blu-ray will win because the BDA is more effective at deception.

See you in October! ;)

Amiable,

Ok, if it is worldwide I can possibly see it - however, Sony's predictions regarding the PS3 havent been very good.

3) the assumption that the PS3 will lower its price and have many (or more) great games out by the holidays


They may lower the price, and that will sell ps3 units, but PS3 owners arent buying huge numbers of movies. HMM reported that BD discs grossed $35 million through the first half of the year in NA. That isnt much given 1.5 PS3's. Furthermore, if there ARE great games, that would probably tend to lower BD disc sales as most budgets are Zero Sum.


4) the assumption that Fox/Disney will do a good job people out titles during the holidays

Maybe, maybe not. If all the rumors are true, it will depend on BD+. That is an open ended question.

5) the fact that BD stand-alone and dual format player will be out with lower prices by the holidays

Ah yes, the price issue. It is funny how that issue shifts. Cheap HD DVD players wont sell, but cheap BD players will. Again, it is an open question - there just doesnt seem to be much if any momentum for HDM in general right now.

Darin,

It is true that consoles sell better at Christmas, and if Sony lowers their price it will sell a bit better. The problem is though, how much of a demand will exist for it - the press hasnt been good for the PS3 lately, what with Ken's departure, and lackluster sales, and complaints of limited games. Momentum exists for these kinds of things, and unless something happens to turn it around, PS3 sales may not be that great.

I tend to dislike anecdotes, as they generally don't indicate trends, but my nephew - PS1 and PS2 owner, with lots of games, passed on the PS3 and bought a Wii this weekend. He said the PS3 just wasnt worth the money for what you get and the games that are currently out there.

One has to wonder how widespread that idea is, and whether it is growing.

Neo,

I didnt say what I said to be flip. It is just that the way questions are phrased sets the tone - it is almost like asking "when did you stop beating your wife"

and if a HD DVD supporter had done this in the context of an anti-BD thread, people would have screamed

Agree. Maybe it should have been something like, "Rate how much of a crushing death blow you see the blockbuster move to be to that feeble format known as HD DVD." Oh, lord now you guys got me worried that the poll results will be skewed because angry HD DVD owners will take offense to the non-biased word "devastating" and vote dishonestly. In the context of how things are "affected in a war" (i.e. the HD format war) - the word "devastating" was appropriate. See what I meant in greater detail in my above reply to george king.

Oh, lord now you guys got me worried that the poll results will be skewed because angry HD DVD owners will take offense to the non-biased word "devastating" and vote dishonestly.

Because Blu-ray owners are completely unbiased.... :rolleyes:

How many movies ( DVD, HD DVD or Blu-ray) do you rent from a BB store (not online store) each year?

I actually rent quite a few. I would say on average 3 maybe 4 a month, I like the spontaneity of being able to walk into the store and instantly walk out with what ever I am in the mood for.

Additionally, That majority of my movie collection is filled with the previously viewed section from Blockbuster (3 for $20 is hard to resist).

I can also say that this has definitely influenced my purchase decision on what HD format I will buy. BlueRay it is, simply because of selection.

I would be curious to know how much Sony is subsidizing this decision. Sony takes it on the chin for the couple years by paying for a portion of the BlueRay inventory for Blockbuster for the first 2 years in order to get consumer adoption. Then Sony makes a mint in the end on royalties.

The challenge that Blockbuster now has is floor space for BlueRay inventory.

Also, have any figures to back up that part about the general public? (No, not this poll....)

Did you read the OP? The OP asks what do we "think" the effects of the Blockbuster annoucement will be. Everything I have posted in this thread is an opinion, so there are no "figures."

~Josh

It is true that consoles sell better at Christmas, and if Sony lowers their price it will sell a bit better. The problem is though, how much of a demand will exist for it - the press hasnt been good for the PS3 lately, what with Ken's departure, and lackluster sales, and complaints of limited games. Momentum exists for these kinds of things, and unless something happens to turn it around, PS3 sales may not be that great.200k each for November and December would be poor. They may be poor, but predicting 100k per month for that last quarter of the year isn't just predicting poor sales, it is predicting horrible sales. We'll see what the games coming this fall do, but I doubt Sony is going to let sales be as low as 100k per month at that critical time of the year.

And as far as worldwide, they are already over 3 million from what I've seen. A little under 1 million in Japan, about 1 million in PAL regions, and ~1.5 million in North America.

You can see what XBOX360 sales did at the end of last year:

http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=America&cons2=PS3&reg2=America&cons3=X360&reg3=America

--Darin

Because Blu-ray owners are completely unbiased.... :rolleyes: No, yeah, right - I mean, I would actually personally agree that the average BD owner is more biased than the average HD DVD owner (just my opinion, folks!). However, you know what I meant. I don't want the results skewed over and above the norm due to something extra and irrelevant like the choice of a single word.

Hah, ANYWAY, all of this is meaningless at the end of the day - everybody just enjoy the poll people...and um, try to vote honestly, heh. :o

darin,

Yes there are more than 3 million worldwide, which I acknowledged.

200k each for November and December would be poor. They may be poor, but predicting 100k per month for that last quarter of the year isn't just predicting poor sales, it is predicting horrible sales.


We shall see what happens, but I dont think Sony will top 200K for Nov. and Dec.


We'll see what the games coming this fall do, but I doubt Sony is going to let sales be as low as 100k per month at that critical time of the year.

You are right that Sony will try and boost sales, but if there is only limited demand, there is not much they can do. And they are in a difficult place. If they drop the price $200 and put it around the 360, and sales do take off, they will bleed money on the subsidies. So it will be interesting to see.

I feel the Blockbuster announcement permanently placed HD-DVD forever behind Blu-ray. This annoucement in addition to Toshiba cutting expectations by 44%, with Starz/ Anchor Bay going Blu-ray Exclusive and with Fox finally getting back in the game have placed HD-DVD in a "fight for life" mode. Did I also mention the Chinese Blu-ray players seem to be near the marketplace as well. For all intents and purposes, this war is over.

~Josh
Gosh, I never thought you would say any of that. :eek:

So, if devastating is too strong, in the interest of not offending some of us here, how about we use the following terms instead of devastating?
Unpleasant
Uncomfortable
Uncool
Unfriendly
and my personal favorite
1. Not Nice
:cool: LMFAO. (but in a healthy, un-offensive to anybody else kind of way - okay, everybody? :) )

darin,

Yes there are more than 3 million worldwide, which I acknowledged.

We shall see what happens, but I dont think Sony will top 200K for Nov. and Dec.

You are right that Sony will try and boost sales, but if there is only limited demand, there is not much they can do. And they are in a difficult place. If they drop the price $200 and put it around the 360, and sales do take off, they will bleed money on the subsidies. So it will be interesting to see.


You may not have to wait until nov-dec for a good indication of how ps3 sales will be doing. There's some decent games to be released from now until september. If ps3 sales continue to drift sidewards into the fall with no meaningful pickup, it would be an ominous sign for the ps3 IMO.

A price cut may or may not help. MS's 360 is in a far better position to implement a cut. A 360 price cut may negate any advantage sony's cut will get. If one cuts it's prices, the other will as well (IMO).

It's not crushing news for HD-DVD, but then again, it's definitely not a step in the right direction either. It very well may have an impact, but quite frankly, it's still way too early to tell.


Agreed, BDA, Blockbuster, Best Buy etc, can mimic Bush with the War is won, the war is over, mission accomphlished rhetoric but the fat lady will not begin to sing until mainstream buyers weigh in. Moreover, if HD DVD and its promotion group has any sense they will do this.... http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=864518&highlight=trojan+horse Then there will be no way for Blockbuster to avoid having HD DVDs in their stores. Edited to add this link also.... http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=863464

I would be curious to know how much Sony is subsidizing this decision. Sony takes it on the chin for the couple years by paying for a portion of the BlueRay inventory for Blockbuster for the first 2 years in order to get consumer adoption. The assumption by most is that Sony is not subsidizing this decision at all, and there is no evidence they are besides. THAT is WHY the Blockbuster announcement is so "powerful" because it was made by a completely neutral company.

Blockbuster just made the decision because it was always smart to rent BD movies to PS3 owners who would also come in to the store to rent PS3 games on BD disc. It just gives that audience an extra reason to enter a Blockbuster store. Naturally, also Blockbuster made this decision based on the results of their test trial, etc as well. (I personally believe they tainted the evidence though and that it was a "bad test" but still...they DO have some "honest" evidence, in that it has been shown BD is being favored to HD DVD since HD DVD went through a drought of movie releases in this past Q1)

The challenge that Blockbuster now has is floor space for BlueRay inventory. I agree, this TO ME was the thing I found personally most shocking about the Blockbuster annoucement. The fact that they are expanding with 170! titles to each of these new stores. That's about 7 times what they had for BD in the test stores. Blockbuster is definitely taking this move seriously. You have to wonder if they will not have clear promotion/advertising and such for the introduction of the move as well.

Joe,

you maybe right, who knows.

I know that I have to pick up a 360 fairly soon, because Halo 3 is coming in September. :D

Thanks for letting me play digital "McLaughlin Group" panelist for a week. :)

This BB story and its media aftermath was/is an '8.' Big missile hit that really hurt and has sent HD-DVD into major damage control, but not yet a lethal blow. Two or three more of these (Best Buy turning BD exclusive for example) and even I don't see how HD-DVD recovers from the onslaught. :(

I voted '7' as it puts HD DVD in a poor position reltive to Blu Ray. Blockbuster is where 3/4s of Americans go to rent video. Whether the renters have Blu Ray or not, the marketing value of Blu Ray only in the stores is worth its weight in gold.

Blockbuster is definitely taking this move seriously. You have to wonder if they will not have clear promotion/advertising and such for the introduction of the move as well.It won't shock me if they end up with a display with a PS3 playing Blu-ray content at some point.

--Darin

+1

Scratched rental HD DVDs skip, of course Blockbuster sided with Blu-Ray.

It won't shock me if they end up with a display with a PS3 playing Blu-ray content at some point.

--Darin

So you think BB is gonna splurge and buy one or more HDTVs for each store along with a overpriced BR player?

Blu Ray is cheap...Look at the prices now compared to the $1K Sony, $1300 Panny and $1500 Pioneer of last year....and they don't suffer from Frozen Disc Syndrome. You can now by Sony and Panny players for under $400 and $500 respectively....and they work!

Amiable,

Ok, if it is worldwide I can possibly see it - however, Sony's predictions regarding the PS3 havent been very good. Sorry, was a little confused on worldwide - didn't realize how well the PS3 was selling outside US/JPN (since the console only launched in those territories this past March).

For the record - and I know this is subjective - I believe that the PS3 will sell fairly well this holiday season in the US. Better than 200k per month. I think Sony has too much to lose to allow the PS3 to really not sell that well this season, for one thing.

Also, I think that with a lowered price, better games, the value of BD added, and the hardware's great reviews since launch - people in general will be willing to help it take off a bit during the holiday season. Even if it is just current 360 or Wii owners adding it as their second/third next-gen console - I think the figures will greatly improve.

And I say this as a Sony/PS3 hater. I mean, Sony will release the Spider-man trilogy on BD this Christmas, that alone will do something.

I also think there are a lot of Sony fanboys left in the 150 million+ Playstation 2 owners out there - and a lot that haven't picked a next-gen console yet who would still probably consider the PS3 first.

They may lower the price, and that will sell ps3 units, but PS3 owners arent buying huge numbers of movies. HMM reported that BD discs grossed $35 million through the first half of the year in NA. That isnt much given 1.5 PS3's. Furthermore, if there ARE great games, that would probably tend to lower BD disc sales as most budgets are Zero Sum. My point is that once BD hardware numbers (via PS3/whatever) get high into the couple millions - then mysteries like who has the biggest attach rate won't matter. Companies will then dedicate all their resources into the big hardware leader to make software sales be great. Also, I'm the type that likes to think people can often afford both movies and games or at least will often choose their money between them somewhat equally. I, personally, have never understood the "people will never buy movies ever again once there are good games" argument.

Maybe, maybe not. If all the rumors are true, it will depend on BD+. That is an open ended question. People over-emphasize BD+ and all it's so-called importance. The studios would remain on their same sides even without it. You have to understand how these studios think and pledge their allegiances. I think that even without BD+, people would easily be very shocked if Fox/Disney didn't release several big titles this Christmas - and on BD only.

Ah yes, the price issue. It is funny how that issue shifts. Cheap HD DVD players wont sell, but cheap BD players will. Again, it is an open question - there just doesnt seem to be much if any momentum for HDM in general right now. For the record I think standalones will continue to sell like they have been but it's not like HD DVD has been blowing away BD stand-alone figures all to hell - I mean, BD stand-alones are being sold to a decent extent. My early point was, if that continues it will just contribute to BDs' overall real/perceived installed base.

Agreed, BDA, Blockbuster, Best Buy etc, can mimic Bush with the War is won, the war is over, mission accomphlished rhetoric but the fat lady will not begin to sing until mainstream buyers weigh in. Moreover, if HD DVD and its promotion group has any sense they will do this.... http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=864518&highlight=trojan+horse Then there will be no way for Blockbuster to avoid having HD DVDs in their stores. Edited to add this link also.... http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=863464 Yes, but I think this whole Universal only releasing combos thing will absolutely NOT happen. I mean I would be willing to eat my own hat if it did. It is just far, far too unlikely given everything - and has always just been wishful thinking on the part of HD media fans, I think.

Listen, I love HD DVD and Universal to death but EVEN I have to question (at this point) what Universal's investment or goal in this war was from the beginning. If you look at the history of their contributions and comments since the HD DVD format launch - there are some red (or at least "yellow") flags that are thrown up. And EVEN IF THEY WERE the most committed company on earth to HD DVD - it is VERY hard to believe that they will be willing to risk a ton of last-minute money, time, or effort (not to mention the health of their company overall) to save a format they didn't create and that has only sold 150k players at this point.

So you think BB is gonna splurge and buy one or more HDTVs for each store along with a overpriced BR player?Not Blockbuster. Sony. And they wouldn't have to buy one for every store as they only have to be there for so long. Just like Best Buy didn't have to buy those big things for showing off the PS3.

--Darin

LMFAO. (but in a healthy, un-offensive to anybody else kind of way - okay, everybody? :) )
Offensive is a good word too. Alright, so I feel a group-hug moment and a title change coming.

Let's change the thread title to :
"How offensive do you see the Blockbuster move to be".

Then we can all hang round the campfire and sing kumbaya for 5 minutes.

We shall see what happens, but I dont think Sony will top 200K for Nov. and Dec.

Quite frankly then, you have no idea what you're talking about then. I'd be shocked if Sony sells less than a million units in the US alone during November and December. The chances they'll sell only 200k in Nov and Dec are so low, so impossible to believe, that one must know absolutely nothing about market trends for video game consoles to believe something like that.

Yes, it's that ridiculous. I mean, the 360 averaged 200k units in the US in 2006, yet managed to sell 500k in November, and 1.2 million units in December. That's in the US alone. And unlike the 360, the PS3 will actually sell in Japan, and possibly better in some places in Europe.

If you think PS3 can't manage more than 400k units worldwide in November and December, simply put, you are wrong. This is not even debatable, barring someone dropping a nuclear bomb on Sony.

Blu Ray is cheap...Look at the prices now compared to the $1K Sony, $1300 Panny and $1500 Pioneer of last year....and they don't suffer from Frozen Disc Syndrome. You can now by Sony and Panny players for under $400 and $500 respectively....and they work!

You must be referring to the handi capped BR players that cannot play the upcoming BD-J related material?

You must be referring to the handi capped BR players that cannot play the upcoming BD-J related material?

Yes, those...the ones that play all current and future Blu Ray movies and do all the PIP, etc...just some of the PIP garbage is not in HD. Yawn. I mean you do buy movies to watch the movies...right?

Yes, those...the ones that play all current and future Blu Ray movies and do all the PIP, etc...just some of the PIP garbage is not in HD. Yawn. I mean you do buy movies to watch the movies...right?


Yawn..so as a BR disc reviewer are you gonna use a handi capped BR player for your reviews of BD? I mean you do review the whole disc or do you half step by reviewing just the movie? Yawn!!!!!!!!!!!

This is just another stupid thread to give this bit of press more real estate here at AVS. Blockbuster can only suffer for this decision, and I'm sure that all of the independantly owned BB stores who are open to both formats and customer choice are not happy with the way BB corporate is making them look bad and probably costing them business by being yet another mouthpiece for the BDA.

Quite frankly then, you have no idea what you're talking about then. I'd be shocked if Sony sells less than a million units in the US alone during November and December. The chances they'll sell only 200k in Nov and Dec are so low, so impossible to believe, that one must know absolutely nothing about market trends for video game consoles to believe something like that.

Yes, it's that ridiculous. I mean, the 360 averaged 200k units in the US in 2006, yet managed to sell 500k in November, and 1.2 million units in December. That's in the US alone. And unlike the 360, the PS3 will actually sell in Japan, and possibly better in some places in Europe.

If you think PS3 can't manage more than 400k units worldwide in November and December, simply put, you are wrong. This is not even debatable, barring someone dropping a nuclear bomb on Sony.


No, YOU have no idea what you are talking about. Have you even looked at the latest PS3 numbers out of Japan? Obviously you have not if you are claiming that it actually sells there.

I am curious if BlockBuster rents the equipment out. They used to do this for VHS and Beta.

I drove past two of their stores today. I looked at the people inside knowing they will see Blu-Ray not HD-DVD. This news combined with previous Blu momentum is the why I said 10. I remember when rental stores pulled Beta tapes from shelves. In a few months the players were no longer sold in stores. We'll see how this goes.

I am curious if BlockBuster rents the equipment out. They used to do this for VHS and Beta.

I drove past two of their stores today. I looked at the people inside knowing they will see Blu-Ray not HD-DVD. This news combined with previous Blu momentum is the why I said 10. I remember when rental stores pulled Beta tapes from shelves. In a few months the players were no longer sold in stores. We'll see how this goes.

Apples to oranges totally different dynamic. Public is nowhere near interested in HDM as they were in videotapes. Get back to us when the fat lady crosses the finish line.

No, YOU have no idea what you are talking about. Have you even looked at the latest PS3 numbers out of Japan? Obviously you have not if you are claiming that it actually sells there.

I've been following them, and they're not good. 10k a week is very bad for PS3 in Japan, and that's what it's averaging right now (and that's even generous). But as I said, compared to the 360, it WILL sell better...right now, there's no titles for that market. But yet it still sells much better than the 360...the Sony brand just sells in Japan in a way MS' doesn't...even though 360 still has better software even for the Japanese market.

I do know what I'm talking about, and indeed, the PS3 can sell in Japan. Why do you think they've sold 3-4 times as many PS3s as 360s in Japan in 1/4th the time, despite a crappy software selection and a horribly high price? Why do you think some golf game managed 300k plus pre-orders already in Japan alone? With the right software, the PS3 will sell...granted, it ain't going to post Wii type numbers, but it should manage ok when they get the software ball rolling for those months. The 360 is just dead weight in Japan, while the PS3 at least has a fighting chance. How anyone who has any clue about the video game industry could say otherwise is simply mind boggling. These numbers may not be great for a video game system, but you guys are obviously thinking the PS3 is going to sell like a HT machine, and not like a video game machine, and that's just wrong.

Nonetheless, if you agree that PS3 is looking forward to a 200k month in Nov and Dec worldwide, you have no clue what you're talking about. Heck it's feasible they'll sell that much in Japan alone in those months. I would never argue that the PS3 isn't struggling, but PS3 struggling in sales needs to be put into perspective...and 200k worldwide in those months is flat out absurd. So to sum up, if you agree with that guy's 200k figure, then you too have no idea what you're talking about. The simple truth is, the PS3 has a few million units left in it for 2007. I'm guessing in the 2-3 million range, maybe even up to 4 if the right software and incentives exist. This is by all means a reasonable, agreed upon prediction of the PS3's 07 selling potential. If you think otherwise, you really need to read up more on that industry before any future comments.

We in the HD DVD camp know . . . that the BD "band" has many horn blowers . . . .

And they blow often!

I've been following them, and they're not good. 10k a week is very bad for PS3 in Japan, and that's what it's averaging right now (and that's even generous). But as I said, compared to the 360, it WILL sell better...right now, there's no titles for that market. But yet it still sells much better than the 360...the Sony brand just sells in Japan in a way MS' doesn't...even though 360 still has better software even for the Japanese market.

I do know what I'm talking about, and indeed, the PS3 can sell in Japan. Why do you think they've sold 3-4 times as many PS3s as 360s in Japan in 1/4th the time, despite a crappy software selection and a horribly high price? Why do you think some golf game managed 300k plus pre-orders already in Japan alone? With the right software, the PS3 will sell...granted, it ain't going to post Wii type numbers, but it should manage ok when they get the software ball rolling for those months. The 360 is just dead weight in Japan, while the PS3 at least has a fighting chance. How anyone who has any clue about the video game industry could say otherwise is simply mind boggling.

Nonetheless, if you agree that PS3 is looking forward to a 200k month in Nov and Dec worldwide, you have no clue what you're talking about. Heck it's feasible they'll sell that much in Japan alone in those months. I would never argue that the PS3 is struggling, but PS3 struggling in sales needs to be put into perspective...and 200k worldwide in those months is flat out absurd. So to sum up, if you agree with that guy's 200k figure, then you too have no idea what you're talking about.

May be off topic, but Sony's going to release a PS3 bundle in japan. It includes the new Hot Shots Golf game that you were mentioning. It's going for 51,980 ($420) and 61,980 yen ($500) for the 20gb & 60gb respectively. Represents a 4,000 yen price savings ($33). The new RPG game, Folklore, is about to be released as well.

We'll see if those things have an effect (if any) on the consoles sold.

BTW I tried both the hot shots & the folklore demos. They both were fun to play. Hot shots sorta reminded me of mario golf.

I'm sorry. I was rather remiss in not sharing my own thinking before critiquing others.

My thinking on the Blockbuster move is that by the time Blu-ray players become cheap enough to interest the average consumer, they will have forgotten about this announcement. In fact, by that time, I expect even more Blockbusters will have closed while even more Hollywood Videos will have opened. Also, by this time, I expect Hollywood Video will have implemented its own rent-by-mail service, because that is, after all, the future. Maybe they will even get into downloads, like NetFlix, who pretty much own the rent-by-mail sector. This is what I think, which is why I chose option 1, practically meaningless. :D

I voted 8, I think the Blockbuster decision is a damaging uppercut, but not a knockout.

Its especially painful considering that HD-DVD just had a giant sale($249/$300 HD-a2s with 5-free movies), that didnt do what toshiba had expected. Which is why they had to cut their outlook by 44%.

The average person, may or may not rent much at blockbuster... but to them.... blockbusters decision may be considered damning evidence that HD-DVD is on its last leg.

HD-DVD really needs to kick it up a major notch to recover, or they are doomed

Everybody golf has always been super popular in Japan for some reason, surprising consider ever iteration is hardly any different from the previous(like EA I guess). Folksoul should do fairly well to, the TV ad is pretty funny.

If anyone has to worry in the console race it's MS, they going to have quite a few consumer law suits on their hands at this rate
http://www.smarthouse.com.au/Home/D3Q7G8S2?page=1
That ontop of the EU suit.

On the significance of the Blockbuster announcement, the press over it has been very damaging to HDDVD PR, big ripples in a small pond. I voted 7.

If a few more exclusivity announcements come from major retailers, I think it'll all be done and dusted

How many movies ( DVD, HD DVD or Blu-ray) do you rent from a BB store (not online store) each year?


None.

This Blockbuster move has a dramatic effect on public perception, regardless if people rent movies from Blockbuster or not. The media has led many average joe's with no allegiance to either format to think that Blu Ray is the format that will survive.

Two friends of mine, both of which own HD tv's but neither HD-DVD or Blu Ray, basically think that Blu Ray won the format war they had been hearing about. "So I guess Blu Ray will win out heh?" was what they told me.

Perception is reality. Which format do you think they are going to purchase when choosing sides? In their minds, HD-DVD is a dying format with no future. At this point, I agree with them.

Glad I decided early on to get rid of my HD-DVD player and the 5 movies I had purchased and wisely invested in a PS3.

If Blu-ray does win out, it will be the first successful format that Sony has brought out in quite some time, if ever.

If Blu-ray does win out, it will be the first successful format that Sony has brought out in quite some time, if ever.

Well, I think CD was one that succeeded... not sure though. (yes, I'm being sarcastic)

And for all the pointing at history people do, fact is that MiniDisc has made Sony money (popular in several countries), Memory stick is no failed thing, and even Beta derivatives are actually still in use today professionally.

People need to start digging a little deeper, and not make so many Sony = failed format generalizations. Rather, recognize that Sony is always engaged in R&D when it comes to formats - some stick and some don't, but I rather have multiple companies trying new things than not.

The CD (and later the DVD) were largely more credited to Philips rather than Sony. If I'm not mistaken Sony has taken similar credit when talking about Blu-ray although Matsushita (Panasonic), Pioneer, Philips, Thomson (RCA), LG , Hitachi, Sharp, and Samsung have made some contributions.

While Beta derivatives (most notably digital adaptations of Betacam) are used professionally, widespread consumer usage was never achieved. MiniDisc is popular in several countries but once again never saw widespread usage. Heck, I even owned a MiniDisc player for a while. As for Memory Stick, it is true that the format is in use in Sony products but it is not a universal format like Sony originally intended. UMD (universal media disc) was a disaster. Digital8 was used for a short time (and is still used sparingly in some camcorders) but never saw as much usage as MiniDV. And then ATRAC, do we really even need to go there.

I agree that R&D into new, more efficient formats is vital to the progression of technology. All I was stating is that Sony has a pretty bad track record when it comes to new formats. I do not attempt to make generalizations in any of my posts. Just because a company does one thing good, doesn't mean that they do everything good. Take Samsung, their higher-end LCDs are impressive and their plasmas are improving but in the process, most of their DLPs have slipped in quality, both in build and picture. If more elaboration is necessary, please let me know.

Apples to oranges totally different dynamic. Public is nowhere near interested in HDM as they were in videotapes. Get back to us when the fat lady crosses the finish line.

I know people living paycheck to paycheck saving for HDTV sets.

I asked if the players were available for renting. They were during the days when video first took hold. If you have an HDTV but you do not have a player renting one could lock you into a format. That is exactly what happened in the '80's.

You seem to be saying that HDTV is barely existing. I do not believe that is correct. I believe the base is expanding.

If Blu-ray does win out, it will be the first successful format that Sony has brought out in quite some time, if ever.

There are CD's and DAT tapes(popular for backing up data). Beta actually was popular in other parts of the world notably Japan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compact_Disc

Toshiba is DVD. They get all the royalties from that medium. Manufacturers were sick of paying them so Blu-Ray was formulated.

"Is Blu-ray really Sony's format?"
http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/07/18/is-blu-ray-really-sonys-format/

The CD (and later the DVD) were largely more credited to Philips rather than Sony.

Philips of course played a key role.

If I'm not mistaken Sony has taken similar credit when talking about Blu-ray although Matsushita (Panasonic), Pioneer, Philips, Thomson (RCA), LG , Hitachi, Sharp, and Samsung have made some contributions.

Sony has been given the credit - or blame - but I'm note sure they take it. They are nevertheless the frontman. Either way, it seems odd for you to have referred to Blu-ray as a proprietary format in the first place if you were going to shift towards a downplay position and state that they aren't wholly responsible after all.

All I was stating is that Sony has a pretty bad track record when it comes to new formats.

Sure, but what can we expect from a company that creates so many? Certainly I would imagine that in the majority of cases, the failure to success ratio should favor the failures. But nothing ventured, nothing gained, and the successes make the collective efforts worth it.

...it seems odd for you to have referred to Blu-ray as a proprietary format...
Not once did I refer to Blu-ray as proprietary. If anything, its success can be attributed to the fact that it is the most open format Sony has helped bring out. If it were more of a closed format, it wouldn't have as much studio support.

Manufacturers were sick of paying them so Blu-Ray was formulated.Blu-ray was not created because manufacturers were sick of paying royalties. It was created because DVD sales were slowing down. CE companies needed new hardware with healthier margins and studios need new revenue channels (HD discs fetch a few more dollars).

(From Plazman) "Perception Is Reality, But Not The Reality."

Eventhough HD-DVD is not and will not be dead this year, the perception to the general public and media is that it will be dead this year with Blu-ray winning the war.

~Josh

The perception to the General Public is "What is Blu-Ray/HD DVD?? Most people dont have a clue about it.

BlockBuster is a relic of VHS days and has no real bearing on anything relevant right now. The stores are bleeding money and it would not surprise me to seem them go under in the next few years.

The perception to the General Public is "What is Blu-Ray/HD DVD?? Most people dont have a clue about it.
True. But now, these people will have a chance to hold the cases in their hands and admire that subtle shade of blue as they walk into the bigger blockbusters in the major cities. The advertising and opportunity to educate the masses about HDM is more valuable than the new renters in the next 3 months. By next year, the volume of rentals will be tracked to see how they are doing. I expect there would be a lot more renters shifting to those blue cases after xmas '07 than now.

I don't see this announcement being that bad at all. Every keeps saying that the general public is now thinking that BD will win the war and this just isn't so because as has been pointed out - the GP doesn't really know or care about HD Disc.

There is an expression that says" there is no such thing as bad press." Many times the "loser" in the press articles actually becomes the winner in the end.

Sp if the GP is now aware that there is such a thing as HD Disc - they may get curious the next time they are in a BB or a CC and check it out.

And they will see two racks of HD movies - one blue and one red. Then when they check out the players they will see the BD players at $499, $599 and $699. Upon looking at the HD DVD players they will see $$349, $399 and the fact that they get 5 free HD DVD movies with a purchase (yes the Pan has 5 in the box. Is it clearly marked?)

If they are savy at all and have used the internet they will/might check out a few sites and again they will see the S300 at $499 but the A2 at $299 - and again the 5 free movies.

The biggest trump card as far as the GP is concerned is price, and that advantage still is in HD DVD's favor.

So the announcement has made the public aware of the formats, now the ball is in his court . . . and if he decides to pick a side - that price issue will be an important factor. Remember J6P has no idea which studios are supporting which format. He saw two racks, each filled with movies.

We are also "being lead down the garden path" by the CEM's and the studios who want the next big thing as DVD seems to have peaked - no growth in sales for 2005, 2006 and 2007 (right now it is down) and all involved want a new cash cow.

Ken Graffeo of Universal had this to say about HD DVD:

HD DVD rental revenue represents about .01% of Universal's income

HD DVD represents 0% of Universals profits.

This will be no different for the other studios with the exception of WB who is doing well but still the dollars spent on all HD Disc SID are tiny to say the least.

The BB announcement may actually be very good for HD DVD.

OP, looks like you'll need to re-do the poll. You left out "Big boost for HD-DVD".

True. But now, these people will have a chance to hold the cases in their hands and admire that subtle shade of blue as they walk into the bigger blockbusters in the major cities. The advertising and opportunity to educate the masses about HDM is more valuable than the new renters in the next 3 months. By next year, the volume of rentals will be tracked to see how they are doing. I expect there would be a lot more renters shifting to those blue cases after xmas '07 than now.

Yeah until they ask if they play in their upscale DVD player and when they say NO and you have to buy a $500 player they will put those cases right back.

Lets hope BR has some really really cheap players coming

Not once did I refer to Blu-ray as proprietary. If anything, its success can be attributed to the fact that it is the most open format Sony has helped bring out. If it were more of a closed format, it wouldn't have as much studio support.


Fair enough, my apologies for misunderstanding your original position. :)

The whole blockbuster issue is just silly. At most it points to a trend, but it won't create one.

Hypothetical:

I have a gasoline powered car. There are also bio-diesel and hydrogen cars available, though I don't have one. When I go to the gas station, I noticed over by the air pump, they have a hydrogen pump. Since this is a fueling station, they don't sell cars.

It's a non-event because I can't use the hydrogen now, and since it's a limited time use (rental, as opposed to hydrogen blowing up my house) I can't keep it around on the assumption I'll buy a hydrogen car some day.

Now I may remember that I saw a hydrogen pump available when I go to replace my car. But wait, a gasoline or hybrid (upconverting player) costs X. A biodiesel car costs 2X, and a hydrogen car costs 4X.

At this point I would do more research before I make a decision. Depending on priorities, it could go either way as all three vehicle types have advantages and disadvantages, though some fanbois might disagree. Like the hydrogen generators might plant a root kit that would accidentally blow up the hydrogen car and every other one as well when they refuel. :)

I voted 1 is blockbuster the only place to rent HDDVD's?

The BB announcement may actually be very good for HD DVD.

Priceless

I voted 8 btw, this is the biggest news about either format since they both launched.

Did someone post that Blockbuster wowns 75% of the rental market? If so, it is very significant.

Priceless

I voted 8 btw, this is the biggest news about either format since they both launched.

From Wiki on Publicity:

The theory any press is good press has been coined to describe situations where bad behaviour by people involved with an organization or brand has actually resulted in positive results, due to the fame and press coverage accrued by such events.

A good example would be Paris Hilton's many antics, from lurid sex tapes to clumsy behaviour on TV shows actually increasing business at the family's chain of Hilton Hotels.

Another example would be the Australian Tourism Board's "So where the Bloody Hell are you?" Advertising Campaign that was initially banned in the UK, but the amount of publicity this generated resulted in the official website for the campaign being swamped with requests to see the banned ad. [1]

The popular sitcom, Married... with Children, achieved skyrocketing ratings after moralist Terry Rakolta attempted to have it removed from the air. It's reported that the former producers send her a fruit basket every Christmas as a gesture of gratitude....

From Wiki on Publicity:

The theory any press is good press has been coined to describe situations where bad behaviour by people involved with an organization or brand has actually resulted in positive results, due to the fame and press coverage accrued by such events.

A good example would be Paris Hilton's many antics, from lurid sex tapes to clumsy behaviour on TV shows actually increasing business at the family's chain of Hilton Hotels.

Another example would be the Australian Tourism Board's "So where the Bloody Hell are you?" Advertising Campaign that was initially banned in the UK, but the amount of publicity this generated resulted in the official website for the campaign being swamped with requests to see the banned ad. [1]

The popular sitcom, Married... with Children, achieved skyrocketing ratings after moralist Terry Rakolta attempted to have it removed from the air. It's reported that the former producers send her a fruit basket every Christmas as a gesture of gratitude....

Blockbuster chooses blu-ray is what people are going to remember, because that is what most of the news reports say.

I voted 8/10. Now just to tell you where I'm coming from, I'm not a fanboi, and I haven't invested in either format, although I've had an HDTV since 2002. Like many (most) people who are interested in high def media, I've been on the fence, waiting for the "war" to resolve itself, or at least come to a point where I could feel confident I'm not investing in a dead-end format.

I'd been leaning toward Blu-Ray for a few months now, based on media sales, and this announcement by Blockbuster was the final piece to sway me over to the Blu-Ray camp. Once the Profile 1.1 players start coming out, I'm getting one.

I'm afraid those who think that the market will support two formats long term are sadly mistaken. Stores do not have the shelf space to stock multiple copies of the same movie, consumers won't want to spend extra for a "Total HD" disc with two formats on it when they have a Blu-Ray player only, and once Universal (inevitably) goes format-neutral, it's going to be a very quick demise for HD-DVD.

Sorry to all the HD-DVD lovers, but the writing is clearly on the wall.

Did someone post that Blockbuster wowns 75% of the rental market? If so, it is very significant.

Yep - close enough.

And as the HD Disc market represents a tiny, tiny fraction of total revenue for disc sales in general:

DVD stats for 2006 - $26.5 billion with $19 billion sales and $7.5 billion rentals.

As we have been given a number of SID money spent on sales of HD disc at $55 million (and I am suspect of this and will show why in a moment) then if we use the salesversus rental formula we get $22 million for HD Disc rentals for a total of consumer spent dollars on HD Disc at $77 million.

So how does that $77 million compare to $26.5 billion?

Now on to the $55 million suspect thing. I am going to post a segment of the DEG article that lists this figure so please give me a moment to get the excerpt which we need to discuss.

Be right back:

EDIT:

OK - it is the Video Business article with numbers form the DEG, Here are the stats I have questions about:

Year-to-date, there are now 300,000 HD DVD-equipped homes in the U.S., split evenly between stand-alones and Xbox 360 drives, reports the DEG. There are about 1.5 million Blu-ray homes, including 100,000 with set-top boxes and the remainder with PS3.

At this point, consumers have bought $55 million worth of high-def software: $35 million spanning 108 Blu-ray titles, and $19 million spanning 66 HD DVD titles, according to DEG.

And here are the questions I have:

1. What does "at this point" mean?

2. What does $35 million for BD spanning 108 BD titles mean?

3. What does $19 million for HD DVD spanning 66 titles mean?

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6453579.html

About 3 out of 10 BloBusts is going to carry br discs.

That's a 3 on a scale of ten.

It will have a slow effect but over the course of the next 6 months, it'll start showing in hardware sales I believe

Why? Is that when you will be joining the Blu Team? :)

~Josh :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D Ha, ha ha. Good one!

The BB announcement may actually be very good for HD DVD.

Exactly... These news headlines obviously equals.... GREAT News for HD-DVD.

Blockbuster to focus on Blu-ray
Blockbuster Chooses Blu-ray
What Blu-ray's Blockbuster Popularity Proves
Blockbuster backs Blu-ray - CNN.com
Blu-Ray Has Already Won - Gizmodo
Blockbuster chooses Blu-ray: is the war over? - Engadget
Blockbuster picks Blu-ray for movie rentals | Tech news blog ...
NPR : 'Marketplace' Report: Blockbuster and Blu-ray
FOXNews.com - Blockbuster to Favor Blu-Ray High-Definition DVDs ...
Blockbuster puts its money on Blu-ray
Blockbuster Says It Will Back Blu-ray in DVD Format War - New York ...
IGN: Blockbuster Chooses Blu-ray
Blockbuster: Blu-Ray All The Way - Forbes.com

Exactly... These news headlines obviously equals.... GREAT News for HD-DVD.

Blockbuster to focus on Blu-ray
Blockbuster Chooses Blu-ray
What Blu-ray's Blockbuster Popularity Proves
Blockbuster backs Blu-ray - CNN.com
Blu-Ray Has Already Won - Gizmodo
Blockbuster chooses Blu-ray: is the war over? - Engadget
Blockbuster picks Blu-ray for movie rentals | Tech news blog ...
NPR : 'Marketplace' Report: Blockbuster and Blu-ray
FOXNews.com - Blockbuster to Favor Blu-Ray High-Definition DVDs ...
Blockbuster puts its money on Blu-ray
Blockbuster Says It Will Back Blu-ray in DVD Format War - New York ...
IGN: Blockbuster Chooses Blu-ray
Blockbuster: Blu-Ray All The Way - Forbes.com

The value of headlines:

Dewey Defeats Truman

Chicago Tribune

Exactly... These news headlines obviously equals.... GREAT News for HD-DVD.

Blockbuster to focus on Blu-ray
Blockbuster Chooses Blu-ray
What Blu-ray's Blockbuster Popularity Proves
Blockbuster backs Blu-ray - CNN.com
Blu-Ray Has Already Won - Gizmodo
Blockbuster chooses Blu-ray: is the war over? - Engadget
Blockbuster picks Blu-ray for movie rentals | Tech news blog ...
NPR : 'Marketplace' Report: Blockbuster and Blu-ray
FOXNews.com - Blockbuster to Favor Blu-Ray High-Definition DVDs ...
Blockbuster puts its money on Blu-ray
Blockbuster Says It Will Back Blu-ray in DVD Format War - New York ...
IGN: Blockbuster Chooses Blu-ray
Blockbuster: Blu-Ray All The Way - Forbes.com

Truly hilarious!

Exactly... These news headlines obviously equals.... GREAT News for HD-DVD.

Blockbuster to focus on Blu-ray
Blockbuster Chooses Blu-ray
What Blu-ray's Blockbuster Popularity Proves
Blockbuster backs Blu-ray - CNN.com
Blu-Ray Has Already Won - Gizmodo
Blockbuster chooses Blu-ray: is the war over? - Engadget
Blockbuster picks Blu-ray for movie rentals | Tech news blog ...
NPR : 'Marketplace' Report: Blockbuster and Blu-ray
FOXNews.com - Blockbuster to Favor Blu-Ray High-Definition DVDs ...
Blockbuster puts its money on Blu-ray
Blockbuster Says It Will Back Blu-ray in DVD Format War - New York ...
IGN: Blockbuster Chooses Blu-ray
Blockbuster: Blu-Ray All The Way - Forbes.com

Pumps up public awareness. Nice!

Amiable,

People over-emphasize BD+ and all it's so-called importance. The studios would remain on their same sides even without it. You have to understand how these studios think and pledge their allegiances. I think that even without BD+, people would easily be very shocked if Fox/Disney didn't release several big titles this Christmas - and on BD only.

I wasnt clear I think. BD+ has nothing to do with studios switching sides, but with releasing movies. Fox hasnt released a movie in months, presumably because of BD+. If it isnt fixed, I wouldnt bet on them to release any big movies come christmas.

Kowhite,

wow, I touched a nerve didnt I.

I'd be shocked if Sony sells less than a million units in the US alone during November and December.

What is going to change that is going to result in a 5 fold increase in sales as you predict.

I do know what I'm talking about, and indeed, the PS3 can sell in Japan. Why do you think they've sold 3-4 times as many PS3s as 360s in Japan in 1/4th the time, despite a crappy software selection and a horribly high price?


This is a complete non sequitar and a bait and switch in the argument. At no point did I mention the 360, nor did I make any comparisons. Of course the PS3 will sell better than the 360 in Japan. So what, it always has. If the PS3 cant sell more than the 360 in Japan, Sony has more problems than it thinks. The simple fact is that currently the PS3 sells about 80K units a month in its home market.

So again, what is going to change that will result in a roughly 10 fold increase in Japanese sales.

Nonetheless, if you agree that PS3 is looking forward to a 200k month in Nov and Dec worldwide,

I never said worldwide, you need to learn to read carefully. I was clearly talking about the NA market.

Yes, those...the ones that play all current and future Blu Ray movies and do all the PIP, etc...just some of the PIP garbage is not in HD. Yawn. I mean you do buy movies to watch the movies...right?

Ah, how rare on these threads - a sensible comment!

So again, what is going to change that will result in a roughly 10 fold increase in Japanese sales.

Games.

I think BB probably does not have a great impact on the early adopter market, who clearly prefer to buy than to rent. However, almost a year into HD-on-disc, and with lower priced players likely for Christmas, I think the mass-consumer is about to engage - and there, BB will have a more significant effect.

Also, one should probably look at the BB announcment in the context of other 'wins' for BR:

1. Anchor Bay picks BR exclusively,
2. BR with a 60/40 advantage in software sales,
3. 44% reduction in HDDVD hardware sales,
4. Toshiba slashing prices on HDDVD players.

Take all these things together, and clearly HDDVD is struggling.

Simon

Exactly... These news headlines obviously equals.... GREAT News for HD-DVD.

Blockbuster to focus on Blu-ray
Blockbuster Chooses Blu-ray
What Blu-ray's Blockbuster Popularity Proves
Blockbuster backs Blu-ray - CNN.com
Blu-Ray Has Already Won - Gizmodo
Blockbuster chooses Blu-ray: is the war over? - Engadget
Blockbuster picks Blu-ray for movie rentals | Tech news blog ...
NPR : 'Marketplace' Report: Blockbuster and Blu-ray
FOXNews.com - Blockbuster to Favor Blu-Ray High-Definition DVDs ...
Blockbuster puts its money on Blu-ray
Blockbuster Says It Will Back Blu-ray in DVD Format War - New York ...
IGN: Blockbuster Chooses Blu-ray
Blockbuster: Blu-Ray All The Way - Forbes.com

Oh....SNAP!!!

I think BB probably does not have a great impact on the early adopter market, who clearly prefer to buy than to rent. However, almost a year into HD-on-disc, and with lower priced players likely for Christmas, I think the mass-consumer is about to engage - and there, BB will have a more significant effect.

Also, one should probably look at the BB announcment in the context of other 'wins' for BR:

1. Anchor Bay picks BR exclusively,
2. BR with a 60/40 advantage in software sales,
3. 44% reduction in HDDVD hardware sales,
4. Toshiba slashing prices on HDDVD players.

Take all these things together, and clearly HDDVD is struggling.

Simon

You need to remove #4. That sale ended BEFORE the BB announcement. It ended 6/16 (started 5/20) while the BB announcement was 6/18.

And it wasn't Anchor Bay - it was Starz.

Please . . .if you are going to quote "facts" get them correct.

The effect is that people who didn't even know there was a format war just read all over the MSM that Blu-ray won, now Blu-ray is on everyone's mind. Winning a war is about numbers, it's about momentum and mindset.

The value of headlines:

Dewey Defeats Truman

Chicago Tribune

So that headline was good news for Truman? Except the current headlines don't mention HD-DVD, only Blu-ray - good way for name recognition to get a boost huh?

You need to remove #4. That sale ended BEFORE the BB announcement. It ended 6/16 (started 5/20) while the BB announcement was 6/18.

And it wasn't Anchor Bay - it was Starz.

Please . . .if you are going to quote "facts" get them correct.

You don't get the point apparently, whether the Toshiba sale ended before, during or after the BB announcment is irrelevant. The fact that Toshiba felt the need to heavily discount their players at all does not bode well for their format.

... anchor bay = starz

Well according to the latest poll result as of 2:30 today, the BB annoucement was far from a knock-out punch for blu-ray. If you add the top five and compare it to the bottom 5 there was less than a 10 vote difference. So it seems us AVSer's don't agree with all the gloom and doom that the media is reporting which could give some hope for HD DVD that it will continue on.

Can HD-DVD win?

shakes magic ball: "Better not tell you now."
again: "Very doubtful."
again: "Outlook not so good"
again: "Don't count on it. "

:p

You don't get the point apparently, whether the Toshiba sale ended before, during or after the BB announcment is irrelevant. The fact that Toshiba felt the need to heavily discount their players at all does not bode well for their format.

... anchor bay = starz

Well I guess Sony must be in the same boat then - the one sinking according to you because they have had two sales already on BD titles:

Buy one get one free

Buy two get one free

And the S300 was supposed to be priced at $599 - that was the announced MSRP. But 45 days before launch - they lowered it to $499

And no . . it is Starz = Anchor Bay as the first title(s) announced have nothing to do with AB - they are The Masters of Horror series

Well according to the latest poll result as of 2:30 today, the BB annoucement was far from a knock-out punch for blu-ray. If you add the top five and compare it to the bottom 5 there was less than a 10 vote difference. So it seems us AVSer's don't agree with all the gloom and doom that the media is reporting which could give some hope for HD DVD that it will continue on.

The majority of AVSers are pro HD DVD. That's why.

The majority of AVSers are pro HD DVD. That's why.

And for GOOD reason. :D

And for GOOD reason. :D

LMAO

The Blockbuster move itself would be a 6, an uppercut that leaves the other player dazed, but would be able to recover.

The following reports in WSJ, FinancialTimes, Forbes, TV-Guide, CNN, CNBC, etc : that's at least an 8. I picked 8 just in case there is a 'devastating' return fire from HD DVD PG. At this point, it seems unusually quiet, perhaps HD DVD PG has chosen to just wait this out. What ammunition do they have?

Could it be the assault of the catalogs on June 26th?

Perhaps still working behind the scenes to get Blockbuster to amend their decision? (Offers of 100,000 free red disks to blockbuster, maybe?)

Pretty much in agreement with Neo1965. Blockbuster's announcement, taken on its own, is not an amazingly powerful blow to HD DVD - I rated it a 5 on the poll.

The unexpected secondary spinoff from the announcement from major news venues, on the other hand, elevates its power somewhat, but such coverage is short-lived. What isn't going to be short-lived are the people near the 1,450 stores that will only have blue cases. It's a small shift in the war, when all is said and done, but the danger for HD DVD is that Blockbuster's decision to step away from neutrality may embolden other retailers to follow suit who were already straddling the line (i.e. Best Buy et. al.).

How do you rate the PS3, the punch that made the follow up BB punch possible :p

I posted this in another thread, but it does seem to show a change after the Blockbuster announcement:

"I think this graph speaks for itself, it is the Amazon Sales rank of PE on HD DVD for the past 45 days (that was the longest period they had).

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/grap...&SPAN=45&TYPE=0

(sorry for not inserting a pic, I can't seem to sign into flickr today).

Important to note that the press release from Blockbuster was dated 6/18.

BD version, which has been consistently ranked lower for trend comparison.

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/grap...&SPAN=45&TYPE=0 "

One thing this pole has done well is to effectively quarantine the fanboys in selections #1 & #10. Eliminate these two results and re-calculate for the sensible remainder, then we'll get a better idea of its relevance.

:p

It's definitely a bad blow. This early in the game, myself and many others use the online rental more than in-store but down the line it could be a problem with the general public who prefer to bring them home from the store.

Just to show those BD "supporters" that I am NOT an HD DVD fanboy, I posted this (which gives only me the right to re-post it here) at another forum in answer to evaluating the current situation and what can HD DVD do:

HD DVD needs to get off it's red A$$ and do something!

1. BB Announcement
2. Starz/ Anchor Bay Announcement
3. Dale Jr. Promoting Sony Announcement
4. Nielsen Numbers - strongly favor BD
5. Sony S300 streets
6. Panasonic Executive - Pro BD Announcement
7. Planet Earth HD DVD falls out of top 10 at Amazon
8. Disney leaks Sleeping Beauty for 2008
9. Fox announces a slew of releases for France
10, Gallery Player goes BD exclusive

Jeeze Louise - who the hell does the HD DVD Forum have running their Public Relations dept?

Helen Keller?

While I wouldn't go so far as to say "HD DVD's throat has now been irreparably cut due to BD's overall momentum", I think there will be substancial impact.

We (AVS collectively) may not frequent BlockBuster a lot, or think it a huge blow, but the media have run with this story enough that even non-HDTV owners know about it. That's gotta hurt, some. Those considering entering the HD market have just heard that BB has decided HD-DVD is dying... What are they to think? How many dual-format owners are now rethinking future HD-DVD purchases? Will you buy all the catalogue titles too, just the day/date, or none?

HD-DVD has been hit hard, and are winded. Can they dig down deep and get back into the fight? I dunno if they can, or with what... One thing's for sure, the longer they wait to react, the more likely the impact of their response will be minimized. Hopefully, media price reductions occur. Whether you're HD-DVD, BD, dual, or none, THAT would be a good thing for you!

edit: I voted with a 7.

Just to show those BD "supporters" that I am NOT an HD DVD fanboy, I posted this (which gives only me the right to re-post it here) at another forum in answer to evaluating the current situation and what can HD DVD do:

HD DVD needs to get off it's red A$$ and do something!

1. BB Announcement
2. Starz/ Anchor Bay Announcement
3. Dale Jr. Promoting Sony Announcement
4. Nielsen Numbers - strongly favor BD
5. Sony S300 streets
6. Panasonic Executive - Pro BD Announcement
7. Planet Earth HD DVD falls out of top 10 at Amazon
8. Disney leaks Sleeping Beauty for 2008
9. Fox announces a slew of releases for France
10, Gallery Player goes BD exclusive

Jeeze Louise - who the hell does the HD DVD Forum have running their Public Relations dept?

Helen Keller?

Helen Keller was actually very good at public relations and was very active later in life... ;)

(I just feel compelled to comment on all of your posts :))

wow, I touched a nerve didnt I.

What is going to change that is going to result in a 5 fold increase in sales as you predict...

You touched a nerve because your prediction is just so ridiculous. What's going to cause a 5 fold increase? The same thing that causes a 5 fold increase every holiday season for every other major console, that's what. It's just common market trends for console sales to explode in the Nov and particularly Dec months. What're your predicting is not reasonable, barring a complete Sony disaster in those months. But absolute disaster is not the way Sony is trending. I find it hard to believe that given price cuts, software, and the holiday season, they can't do more than double their lowest monthly sales of the year. Quite frankly, it's almost unfathomable. That's the issue...it's just flat out absurd. I mean, if you compare what the 360 did in December 06, to what it did in April of 07, it actually IS a 10 times difference in numbers.

This is a complete non sequitar and a bait and switch in the argument. At no point did I mention the 360, nor did I make any comparisons. Of course the PS3 will sell better than the 360 in Japan. So what, it always has. If the PS3 cant sell more than the 360 in Japan, Sony has more problems than it thinks. The simple fact is that currently the PS3 sells about 80K units a month in its home market...

But I did, and someone challenged me saying I didn't know what I was talking about because I said it'd sell in Japan compared to the 360. This isn't a non-sequiter...it's a response to a post that wasn't by you.

So again, what is going to change that will result in a roughly 10 fold increase in Japanese sales..

Software and the buying season will kick...that's what. As I said, go look at the market trends of video game consoles...what I'm saying is just normal. In Japan, the 360 managed to sell maybe 10-20 times what it did in a normal month in December of last year. I could pull more examples, but simply put, this is not an odd occurance. game systems sell based on software and buying seasons...and it leans heavily towards that too. Heck, this isn't just video games, so I'm not sure why anyone would be surprised.

I never said worldwide, you need to learn to read carefully. I was clearly talking about the NA market.

You actually didn't specify, but yes, it's my mistake for thinking you meant worldwide. Though either or, it's wrong. It jsut bugs me that someone would make a prediction like that, especially when it's obvious they have heavy biases, that is so completely lacking in common sense of the market they are talking about. Quite frankly, there is pretty much zero chance of your prediction happening, and I say that with absolute certainty. It truly is that ridiculous. Is the PS3 struggling? Yes. Is your 200k per month in Nov and Dec a reasonable prediction? Not at all, not even close. Am I getting off topic? Probably.

If the PS3 cant sell more than the 360 in Japan, Sony has more problems than it thinks.

Let's be honest, it more expensive been out a year less and has doubled 360 sales.

Kowhite,


First, yes I prefer the Xbox but that is largely because I like first person shooters - it has nothing to do with the platform per se. If the PS series had halo, I would have bought the PS. My bias is against the large number of people who extolled the success of the PS3 and its launch.

Yes, sales increase in the Holiday seasons. I know that. However, in May the PS3 sold 42K units for the entire month of May in Japan. And sales have largely fallen every month in Japan, except one. Think about that.

You predicted roughly 500K per month for Nov. and Dec. for Japan, IIRC.

Yes, a drop in price will have an effect. Yes, more games have an effect. I just dont see it having as big an effect you think.

When I look around (and I have a lot of relatives that travel to Japan from Hawaii on a regular basis), there just doesnt seem to be a lot of buzz or excitement for the PS3 as a game console. People arent really interested. Hawaii is generally a massively pro-Sony state - most Sony products have significantly more shelf space than those from other companies.

But I dont know anyone who bought a PS3. They all bought the Wii. These are largely lost sales for Sony for the next year or so.

So, yes I think the PS3 sales will increase during the holidays, but my prediction is that in NA they wont come anywhere close to the million units you predict for Nov. and Dec.

I find it hard to believe that given price cuts, software, and the holiday season, they can't do more than double their lowest monthly sales of the year.

Ok, so you dont believe it. Let me ask some simple questions. Would you have predicted the current sales numbers for the PS3? Do you find them acceptable and within normal ranges? Do you think that Sony predicted these sales numbers?

Let's be honest, it more expensive been out a year less and has doubled 360 sales.

Sales in Japan for consoles June 4th to June 10th:


http://www.psxextreme.com/ps3-news/1359.html

Sales in Japan for consoles June 4th to June 10th:


http://www.psxextreme.com/ps3-news/1359.html

And how is this relevant?

And how is this relevant?

3 posts ago the sale of the PS3 in Japan was being discussed - I just added a link to show latest sales data if anyone wanted to know exactly what those sales numbers were.

The fact that Toshiba felt the need to heavily discount their players at all does not bode well for their format.

This, despite the FACT that this has been Toshiba's oft stated strategy all along. :rolleyes:

I'll have the duck with the mango salsa....

This, despite the FACT that this has been Toshiba's oft stated strategy all along. :rolleyes:

I'll have the duck with the mango salsa....

Cleary it is working wonders for them.. oh wait, snap :eek:

How many movies ( DVD, HD DVD or Blu-ray) do you rent from a BB store (not online store) each year?

0, zero, nada

When I chose Beta, they chose VHS.

When I chose Laser Disc, they ignored Laser Disc

When I preferred widescreen DVDs, they carried 4:3 DVDs.

When I chose Blu-Ray, they chose Blu-Ray.

1 out of 4 doesn't negate a long history of opposition.

If they do in fact carry BDs in my local BB, I may visit them occasionally, but only to rent BDs and nothing else.

Meanwhile, my business still goes to Netflix as usual.

Yawn..so as a BR disc reviewer are you gonna use a handi capped BR player for your reviews of BD? I mean you do review the whole disc or do you half step by reviewing just the movie? Yawn!!!!!!!!!!!

thebland are you going to answer?

Exactly... These news headlines obviously equals.... GREAT News for HD-DVD.

Blockbuster to focus on Blu-ray
Blockbuster Chooses Blu-ray
What Blu-ray's Blockbuster Popularity Proves
Blockbuster backs Blu-ray - CNN.com
Blu-Ray Has Already Won - Gizmodo
Blockbuster chooses Blu-ray: is the war over? - Engadget
Blockbuster picks Blu-ray for movie rentals | Tech news blog ...
NPR : 'Marketplace' Report: Blockbuster and Blu-ray
FOXNews.com - Blockbuster to Favor Blu-Ray High-Definition DVDs ...
Blockbuster puts its money on Blu-ray
Blockbuster Says It Will Back Blu-ray in DVD Format War - New York ...
IGN: Blockbuster Chooses Blu-ray
Blockbuster: Blu-Ray All The Way - Forbes.com
The headlines could have been much worse for HD-DVD. Although most suggest that Blu-Ray is winning (or won) none have the words HD-DVD in them. For the average person scanning the articles they won't even know that the blow has occurred to HD-DVD. Once the BD actually hit BB the real affect will begin, how large it is can only be speculated now.

The headlines could have been much worse for HD-DVD. Although most suggest that Blu-Ray is winning (or won) none have the words HD-DVD in them. For the average person scanning the articles they won't even know that the blow has occurred to HD-DVD. Once the BD actually hit BB the real affect will begin, how large it is can only be speculated now.

Bush declared "mission accomplished" years ago; has the U.S.A. won? My point is what talkng heads say is meaningless until it is reflected on the ground with the general public.

Bush declared "mission accomplished" years ago; has the U.S.A. won? My point is what talkng heads say is meaningless until it is reflected on the ground with the general public.

Except here you have the analogy reversed; this is more like daily news indicating HD DVD sliding, but the HD DVD faithful talking about "surges" and progress not easily reflected in the daily stories. Chinese players will change the landscape, just wait for it, etc etc...

It is what it is, and the simplest explanation is usually pretty close to the truth: BD is winning the format war, there can be no confusion on this point.

Except here you have the analogy reversed; this is more like daily news indicating HD DVD sliding, but the HD DVD faithful talking about "surges" and progress not easily reflected in the daily stories. Chinese players will change the landscape, just wait for it, etc etc...

It is what it is, and the simplest explanation is usually pretty close to the truth: BD is winning the format war, there can be no confusion on this point.

You say BD is winning the format war, BDA said they have won so which is it? And if they've won why are they constantly saying they have won? Wouldn't it be obvious by defeating HD DVD in all areas with overwhelming numbers? Sorry but even Jose Feliciano and Stevie Wonder can see that's not happening.

You say BD is winning the format war, BDA said they have won so which is it? And if they've won why are they constantly saying they have won? Wouldn't it be obvious by defeating HD DVD in all areas with overwhelming numbers? Sorry but even Jose Feliciano and Stevie Wonder can see that's not happening.

It's not happening as quickly as they're claiming (which is past tense), but just because the BDA is exaggerating, doesn't mean that what they're exaggerating about isn't falling in their favor nonetheless.

When the BDA claims to have won, it pisses people off, but at least reasons could be discerned to understand why they feel bold enough to claim it. You're not hearing HD DVD claim to have won, because they are very clearly losing - to hear such would be to truly see a cognitive disconnect. BD hasn't won, but HD DVD is losing.

In the end, it's a matter of degrees, rather than of state. HD DVD can't win while it is losing; this is simply a truism. If there's a format bogged down in the streets of Baghdad right now, I certainly wouldn't say it's BD.

HD DVD could also say they are winning given their position withstanding overwhelming odds. HD DVD David vs BR Goliath.

Yes, those...the ones that play all current and future Blu Ray movies and do all the PIP, etc...just some of the PIP garbage is not in HD. Yawn. I mean you do buy movies to watch the movies...right?

Yawn..so as a BR disc reviewer are you gonna use a handi capped BR player for your reviews of BD? I mean you do review the whole disc or do you half step by reviewing just the movie? Yawn!!!!!!!!!!!

HD DVD could also say they are winning given their position withstanding overwhelming odds. HD DVD David vs BR Goliath.

What a joke, calling Microsoft a David, versus Blu Ray as Goliath. I think Google and Netscape would disagree with you!

HD DVD could also say they are winning given their position withstanding overwhelming odds. HD DVD David vs BR Goliath.

You are free to portray it as such if you like, though I'm not sure what kind of 'winning' that is.

You are free to portray it as such if you like, though I'm not sure what kind of 'winning' that is.

My interpetation is no worse than your beloved BDA.

My interpetation is no worse than your beloved BDA.

Yeah I agree (well, it is a bit more deluded in fact) - but I'm not here touting the BDA line that BDA has won. I'm simply stating my own opinion that it is win-ning. What the BDA states or claims is no concern of mine - I don't make any of my own life choices based on PR mouthpieces.

Amiable,

I wasnt clear I think. BD+ has nothing to do with studios switching sides, but with releasing movies. Fox hasnt released a movie in months, presumably because of BD+. If it isnt fixed, I wouldnt bet on them to release any big movies come christmas. You misunderstood me. My point was that regardless of BD+ or not - the exclusive BD studios have always sided with BD, always committed to releasing titles on BD, and presumably always will (until HD DVD unforeseeably somehow wins practically all the major early battles in the war without them).

My other point was that I think you and others are presuming too much about BD+. The worry regarding the lull in Fox titles has been blown out of proportion on these boards and people have been speculating and exagerrating. There is really little to no reason or direct evidence to suggest Fox stopped putting out titles because of BD+. There is only very circumstantial evidence at best. Nobody looks at Paramount's erratic release schedules and jumps to the conclusion that they are waiting for BD+ or some other feature to come along.

To me, this situation is nearly the same. Fox could have stopped putting out titles for any number of reasons including simply because they want to ensure the quality of a huge load of titles they have yet to announce that are planned for the fall. Fox and all studios are testing out their release schedules, methods, and planning at this early stage in the war. People are reading way too much into BD+.

IMO, even if Sony said BD+ won't come out until 08 - Fox/Disney would still put out a significant amount of hit titles for this fall season. Why? Because studios want to make money/sell product during the greatest shopping time of the year and because (despite erratic release schedules) they are just as committed to their format as Universal is to HD DVD (and don't forget Universal has flip-flopped with their release schedule as well - see Q1).

Understand that the studios commit and continue to release product to one side for more than just the promise of one completed bulletpoint feature. It is hard to want to admit/believe since HD DVD is the under-dog in the war - but the BD-exclusive studios are very committed to that format for many, many reasons.

You misunderstood me. My point was that regardless of BD+ or not - the exclusive BD studios have always sided with BD, always committed to releasing titles on BD, and presumably always will (until HD DVD unforeseeably somehow wins practically all the major early battles in the war without them).

My other point was that I think you and others are presuming too much about BD+. The worry regarding the lull in Fox titles has been blown out of proportion on these boards and people have been speculating and exagerrating. There is really little to no reason or direct evidence to suggest Fox stopped putting out titles because of BD+. There is only very circumstantial evidence at best. Nobody looks at Paramount's erratic release schedules and jumps to the conclusion that they are waiting for BD+ or some other feature to come along.

To me, this situation is nearly the same. Fox could have stopped putting out titles for any number of reasons including simply because they want to ensure the quality of a huge load of titles they have yet to announce that are planned for the fall. Fox and all studios are testing out their release schedules, methods, and planning at this early stage in the war. People are reading way too much into BD+.

IMO, even if Sony said BD+ won't come out until 08 - Fox/Disney would still put out a significant amount of hit titles for this fall season. Why? Because studios want to make money/sell product during the greatest shopping time of the year and because (despite erratic release schedules) they are just as committed to their format as Universal is to HD DVD (and don't forget Universal has flip-flopped with their release schedule as well - see Q1).

Understand that the studios commit and continue to release product to one side for more than just the promise of one completed bulletpoint feature. It is hard to want to admit/believe since HD DVD is the under-dog in the war - but the BD-exclusive studios are very committed to that format for many, many reasons.

Anyone that thinks the cracking of BR has little or nothing to do with Fox not releasing titles are deluding themselves pure and simple.

At this point, consumers have bought $55 million worth of high-def software: $35 million spanning 108 Blu-ray titles, and $19 million spanning 66 HD DVD titles, according to DEG.

And here are the questions I have:

1. What does "at this point" mean?

2. What does $35 million for BD spanning 108 BD titles mean?

3. What does $19 million for HD DVD spanning 66 titles mean?

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6453579.htmlThat is strange and I don't know what that means. I didn't recall seeing anything about the title counts with the $35 million and $19 million. Maybe they are only counting titles that sold over a certain amount, titles released this year (I haven't looked to see if that is close to the numbers released for each side), or something like that. I don't really have an explanation though.

--Darin

Anyone that thinks the cracking of BR has little or nothing to do with Fox not releasing titles are deluding themselves pure and simple.^^^Based on what evidence, man? Everything has been pure unadulterated specultation thus far - see the history of title announcements/retractions since the beginning of the formats launch to see there are all kinds of reasons studios have shuffled their release slate and that it is common to do so. Until we hear directly from a Fox insider going: "yep, that is the one and only reason" - then people shouldn't be panicing and exagerrating over the issue.

Look, I'm not saying lack of BD+ didn't factor into what Fox's current release plans are - it might have - but I also think it is very likely, if not certain, that Fox has many other considerations other then BD+ to examine when churning out their release schedule. People have taken it to the point where they would suggest BD+ is like the coming of Christ for Fox and that Fox would never put out good BD titles again if it were not implemented. I think neither of those things are true and that Fox has more of a stake in the war and in putting out BD movies in general then most people think or are willing to admit/believe.

I think the average person on these boards doesn't understand or doesn't want to believe just how these studios think or what they are motivated by in taking allegiances in the war. And indeed, it is hard for the average consumer to understand why a studio may do things that are not good for the consumer, do things that seem to hurt their reputation with the customer, and more. If the surface-layer reasons for the studios doing things were truly revealed to the customer - most customers would go: "huh, that doesn't seem rationale" or "what?! - that's not what I expected!".

And that's my point, people are assuming too much about what angers, pleases, or affects the opinions of the studios. Studios have their own agendas that are deeply multi-layered for one (since they have to please partners and consumers, support other products/markets instead of individual, etc) and are agendas that are then glossed over with things like "corporate bubble mentality" and irrational greed on the other. So that's one thing. Then there are just the pure mechanical day-to-day ups and downs that are not revealed ever to the customer. For example, Fox could just be revising their codec/transfer process, be trying to recover from a virus that slowed down whatever, be waiting for a new prestigious employee to step up and run their high-def department, testing new BD authoring techniques such as Java/net connectivity before they move forward, etc etc.

So the real reasons behind a studios actions, if revealed, would often not be the logical choice the consumer would directly assume it to be (ie BD+/whatever). Thus it is extremely difficult, if not nearly impossible for the average joe to truly understand the motivations of the studios based on press releases, etc alone.

I think HD DVD has been destroyed, not by Blockbuster's decision but by the way the it's being reported. Everyone is eager for the war to be over and the press seems to have decided to use this event to dog pile HD DVD. Now that the everyone has announced a winner, those on the sidelines will go out and buy Blu. It's over guys, the rest is just screams of agony as Toshiba figures out how best to bow out. The losers are those that bought an HD DVD player up till now, especially before the prices dropped, but at least they can watch the discs they already have. Anyone who goes out and buys an HD DVD player from now on should not complain when the software dries up next year.



Walt

By the way, is it true that you can only rent Weinstein SD DVDs and HD DVDs from Blockbuster? If so, does that apply to online as well or just local B&Ms? What is the Blockbuster Weinstein exclusivity agreement anyway?

My point being, if Weinstein is completely exclusive to Blockbuster in terms of where you can rent - then that may just be yet another continued draw to get people to enter Blockbuster stores and then see all the BD hoopla.

I know 90% of the time all the Weinstein Dragon Dynasty titles (the SE Asian action films series) are always checked out big time at my local BB. Those titles, in particular, I think are a big draw among the people in the "action-genre crowd" who know about them.

As far as this Fox issue - my two cents:

They holding back their releases is probably (not fact - speculation) due to:

1. Security Issues - for copy protection

2. Revenue issues - they are not pleased with their revenue versus cost results and have decided to wait till themarket matures a bit before going back in.

There are a number of studios who are not releasing titles besides Fox.

Well I guess Sony must be in the same boat then - the one sinking according to you because they have had two sales already on BD titles:

Buy one get one free

Buy two get one free

And the S300 was supposed to be priced at $599 - that was the announced MSRP. But 45 days before launch - they lowered it to $499

Sigh! Missed the point again - too much time spent researching trivia and not enough thinking the big picture .... :)

HDDVD already had the hardward cost advantage over BD. Just my opinion, but in that context BR hardware price reductions seem more like strategic pricing; versus desperation for HDDVD - but time will tell!

BTW, while you are surfing around the net, take an online PC class - found your Hellen Keller comment offensive.

I think HD DVD has been destroyed, not by Blockbuster's decision but by the way the it's being reported. Everyone is eager for the war to be over and the press seems to have decided to use this event to dog pile HD DVD. Now that the everyone has announced a winner, those on the sidelines will go out and buy Blu. It's over guys, the rest is just screams of agony as Toshiba figures out how best to bow out. The losers are those that bought an HD DVD player up till now, especially before the prices dropped, but at least they can watch the discs they already have. Anyone who goes out and buys an HD DVD player from now on should not complain when the software dries up next year.Walt
The LA Times, which is very aware of Hollywood issues has mentioned this once. If it were a big deal, they would be following up closely.

And with HD DVD out of the picture, Sony will be free to lower prices even more, allowing even more people to jump on board the Blu-ray bandwagon! Then we'll see an exponential growth of HDM adoption! :rolleyes:

Anyone got any real figures about how many PS3 owners actually have HD monitors?

Anybody know what exact date the Blockbuster thing will go into effect? Will my local store have all 170 movies by July 1st or what? What should we expect with this? I've got a Blockbuster within walking distance of my house - I want to rent some movies!

Also, who knows what the details are of the Blockbuster Weinstein exclusivity agreement?

Anybody know what exact date the Blockbuster thing will go into effect? Will my local store have all 170 movies by July 1st or what? What should we expect with this? I've got a Blockbuster within walking distance of my house - I want to rent some movies!

Next month - that was the time frame used to implement the additions to the 1450 stores

Also, who knows what the details are of the Blockbuster Weinstein exclusivity agreement?

Link to the agreement:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6391512.html?q=blockbuster

You know what? When someone reports that Warner and Paramount have decided to drop HD DVD and support Blu-ray exclusively, THEN you can talk about HD DVD's "throat" cut.

Otherwise, considering I couldn't rent HD DVD movies before this at Blockbuster (and rented them from Netflix anyway or downloaded via Xbox Live), this announcement means absolutely nothing to me.

Certainly isn't making me run right out to by that $500 BD player.

Things only become clear with hindsight.

At this point, if everything goes on back to the normal about 2:1 sales advantage for blu movies, then this is just a temporary setback that can be offset with other moves by the red-camp. Even in this scenario, the free advertising of a shelf of BD titles in the new stores will work its way through the system and cannot be ignored. Blu boxes will hit a lot of neutral eyeballs.

If other dominoes were to fall, then this blockbuster move would have been a watershed event that marked an important milestone in the first great format war of the 21st century.

Things only become clear with hindsight.

At this point, if everything goes on back to the normal about 2:1 sales advantage for blu movies, then this is just a temporary setback that can be offset with other moves by the red-camp. Even in this scenario, the free advertising of a shelf of BD titles in the new stores will work its way through the system and cannot be ignored. Blu boxes will hit a lot of neutral eyeballs.

If other dominoes were to fall, then this blockbuster move would have been a watershed event that marked an important milestone in the first great format war of the 21st century.

Yep . . no doubt about it . . . lots of blue cases at BB to attract attention.

And $499, $599 and $699 players for all those wonderful blue movies - as opposed to a $50 to $100 for a new DVD player or $150 for an upscaling one (that promises HD PQ)

And movie prices . . . DVD - tons at $5.50 to $7.50 - HD DVD/BD - cheapest you can find is $19.95 in a B & M and not much lower on line. Most are in the $25 range.

There is a BIG difference between interest . . . and desire.

As Blockbuster goes BD-exclusive in these stores, will they also go BD-exclusive on their sales?

Yep . . no doubt about it . . . lots of blue cases at BB to attract attention.

And $499, $599 and $699 players for all those wonderful blue movies - as opposed to a $50 to $100 for a new DVD player or $150 for an upscaling one (that promises HD PQ)

And movie prices . . . DVD - tons at $5.50 to $7.50 - HD DVD/BD - cheapest you can find is $19.95 in a B & M and not much lower on line. Most are in the $25 range.

There is a BIG difference between interest . . . and desire.
In classical Economics 101 parlance, the presence of BD cases in Blockbuster stores moves the demand curve upwards --- but that supply curve also has to move ;) to create the intended multiplier effect.

Although I don't think Blockbuster has enough weight to sway the vote one way or the other I fear some bigger business will read too much into their decision and it would sway their direction one way or the other.

"Rate how devastating you see the Blockbuster move to be..."

The Paramount and possible Warner move is much, much more substantial which puts this thread into proper perspective.