The iPhone reviews are out (Mossberg/Pogue/Levy -- MacRumors.com has links) and they are about as good as one can imagine/hope for -- most of the criticism goes to AT&T. I also did a bit of browsing at the cell phone forum howardforums.com and there seems to be every indication that the iPhone will be a paradigm changing success, and for Apple, bigger than the iPod.

The question becomes, what effects, good or bad, will a huge iPhone hit have on what we hold near and dear, the Mac HTPC?

One immediate thought is that there will be overwhelming pressure on the studios to support iTunes as the super sharp widescreen iPhone (and same form factor iPods that are sure to follow) are far more suited to movie watching. Of course this support would not necessarily be HiDef.

The second probable effect is the acceleration of the "halo" giving Mac (and maybe even aTV) sales an ever bigger boost. This would likely lead to an acceleration of third party Mac software support, with HD material for iTunes also more likely.

Both one and two will force the emergence of H.264 as the internet video standard with or without DRM. WMV will start to fade, and deals like the recent BBC WMV only support will become impossible in the future for any serious company not based in Redmond.

Thoughts?

I will point out that the iPhone is not quite widescreen. It has a 3:2 (1.5) aspect ratio, not the 16:9 (1.8) aspect ratio of an HDTV or the 16:10 (1.6) aspect ratio of a widescreen computer monitor. I guess it's a wider screen in that it isn't 4:3 (1.33).

I hope future widescreen content on iTunes store does not use 3:2.

I agree with many of your thoughts Ted. Recent uTube conversion to H.264 bears this out.
A recent survey by ChangeWave also puts some meat into the Halo effects to the Mac:
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/07/06/27/apple_establishing_iphone_leopard_halos_gains_in_small_busin ess.html

I think Apple may be using the ATV as an early 'test' form of an HTPC media center product that finally converges 'Life-Work-Home' functionality
- may come along with new .mac and iMacs toward the end of this year....? All just thoughts, but fun to conjecture the possibilities - must be a fun time to working for Apple I suspect as Jobs concepts are finally coalescing. I think this year and next will be a lot fun for them especially...

ken

The second probable effect is the acceleration of the "halo" giving Mac (and maybe even aTV) sales an ever bigger boost.

Doubtful.

We're all still in a "wait for Leopard" mode.

This would likely lead to an acceleration of third party Mac software support, with HD material for iTunes also more likely.

Doubtful.

Repeat previous reply.

iTS still doesn't even have dvd quality.

I fear what we have now entered is a prolonged period of distraction, debate and RDF, and actually we entered it right after the most recent underwhelming upgrade to the Macbooks and uneventful, disappointing rehash of a WWDC.

Apple bought itself a couple more months of not having to answer questions and not take flack on ANYTHING beside the iPhone--because the iPhone is all anyone is going to be talking about. Leopard delayed, what Leopard delay?

And what effect will this sustained iPhone-mania pre-occupying the bloggers and the mainstream media have on us, here in our little corner prioritizing the Mac home theater world? All the reviews, FUD and speculation, the calls and responses, the mock outrage over various weighty aspects like the speed of EDGE or family plan pricing or what happens if you drop an iPhone, et al?

The effect will be that no one will really care whether the aTV is still selling as poorly as many of us here have suspected all along, that it still doesn't support AC-3, no one will care that mini has yet to receive an upgrade, even the most perfunctory of upgrades, since September 2006, no one will care what Front Row will supposedly be able to do in Leopard. I fear any Mac home theater momentum or market incentive that we had hoped for going into WWDC has been stopped dead in its tracks--by the iPhone--and this applies whether it sells like gangbusters (as I suspect it should and will) or whether it flops.

We won't know how our HT landscape has changed until October anyway. And that seems so far away right now. Let's just hope the Christmas shopping season brings us some tasty fruit.

Re: "Halo" effect.
Doubtful.
We're all still in a "wait for Leopard" mode.
...

I am not talking about some immediate occurrence, I am talking about a long term multi-year trend. "Halo" effect switchers aren't waiting for Leopard and probably don't even know what it is. They aren't complaining about the last MacBook update, they are buying MacBooks like hot cakes.

My post posits that a successful iPhone will boost Apple's already rising market share and I speculate on what that means. Yes, I also doubt anything too meaningful will happen between now and October on the hardware front, although I wouldn't be surprised if there is movement on the part of the studios vis-a-vis iTunes content.

But as a long term trend, I see this being very positive.

The iPhone reviews are out (Mossberg/Pogue/Levy -- MacRumors.com has links) and they are about as good as one can imagine/hope for -- most of the criticism goes to AT&T. I also did a bit of browsing at the cell phone forum howardforums.com and there seems to be every indication that the iPhone will be a paradigm changing success, and for Apple, bigger than the iPod.

The question becomes, what effects, good or bad, will a huge iPhone hit have on what we hold near and dear, the Mac HTPC?

One immediate thought is that there will be overwhelming pressure on the studios to support iTunes as the super sharp widescreen iPhone (and same form factor iPods that are sure to follow) are far more suited to movie watching. Of course this support would not necessarily be HiDef.

The second probable effect is the acceleration of the "halo" giving Mac (and maybe even aTV) sales an ever bigger boost. This would likely lead to an acceleration of third party Mac software support, with HD material for iTunes also more likely.
...
Thoughts?Why must you make me think? I just get myself in trouble. :rolleyes:

As to #1, we have to remember that it is a question of scale here. If Apple meets its goal of 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008, that's still only 10% of the iPod market of 100 million. And how many of those people want to buy/rent movies to watch on it? While it undoubtedly will add to the clamor for content, I doubt that it will drive it in the short term. And if it does, as you say, it portends nothing for HD. Upgrade the video iPod with widescreen and multi-touch, and maybe that will help--but that's months down the road.

Now #2, the halo effect, as kenliles points out, is already affecting Mac sales positively. I don't think anyone predicted that the halo effect for the iPhone was going to come as a result of all the pre-launch hype, but it appears to have. Unprecedented.

So it becomes a question of as the Mac market share grows, in general, how will that affect the htpc segment? This brings me back to one of my concerns for Apple growing so fast. How will it respond? Not familiar turf. One immediate problem I see, as Apple milks its success, is that its rapidly growing market share and financial success, and with it the growing media/analyst (and strato-lounger AVS'er) scrutiny, the problems with Apple will become more apparent. Like the obvious holes in its Mac lineup. More people, more opinions, more criticism. Will Apple respond by diversifying its Mac line and filling the many unmet needs/niches of its customers? Or will it continue its plodding ways, publicly ignoring its deficiencies, giving us incremental updates to products that don't really answer our needs? Is Apple willing to diversify enough to go after the huge potential markets that have historically dominated by PCs (business, games, htpc, servers, etc.)? That is the billion dollar question. And I don't have a crystal ball to see the answer.

You can't plug a square peg in a round hole. If Apple wants an htpc sitting next to the hdtv, it's going to have to do something radically different to get beyond where the appleTV and Mini have taken it. A few added features aren't going to do it. Apple needs to Think Different on this one. And that entails doing business in a different way than it has been. And I don't know if they are willing to do that. We may remain disappointed for many more years, waiting for the perfect Mac htpc. But I hope not.

I know what my two-bit (and not too popular it has seemed) advice to Apple is, and I've stated it here several times before: take on some partners, license out OS X for some select vertical markets (like htpc, small servers, thin clients, POS terminals, tablets [already did that with Axiotron] etc.), and give the people what they want. Tightly controlled so as to not affect Apple Mac sales, and to maintain the Mac experience. The question remains: how big can Apple get on its own, before it begins to suffer the inevitable consequences of its success? Partnering has been difficult for Apple. But it is the key to long term stability and success. Working with Google and at&t shows that Apple gets it. But can it continue the momentum?

Doubtful.

We're all still in a "wait for Leopard" mode.




those doing the research are showing a much different outcome.. (see post above)-

I agree it's Octoberish before we see HD, new hardware, etc.

ken

As to #1, we have to remember that it is a question of scale here. If Apple meets its goal of 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008, that's still only 10% of the iPod market of 100 million. And how many of those people want to buy/rent movies to watch on it? While it undoubtedly will add to the clamor for content, I doubt that it will drive it in the short term. And if it does, as you say, it portends nothing for HD. Upgrade the video iPod with widescreen and multi-touch, and maybe that will help--but that's months down the road.
Keep in mind that the 10 million iPhone figure is very, very conservative. If iPhone breaks out (as I think it will) it could be several times that amount by the end of 2008.

Also, keep in mind that of the 100 million iPods, not so many do video -- Apple sells a lot more Shuffles and Nanos than Video iPods, and of course none of the previous generations of iPods do video. A very successful iPod could easily double the number of video capable iPods out there -- and I think when the upgraded iPod comes out that will be huge as well. For one thing every person who drooled over the iPhone but didn't buy it because of AT&T or because they live in an unsupported country would snap the new iPod up.

As for Apple partnering -- I agree they should, just not by licensing out OS X. But partnering with an Elgato to add DVR functionality to their HTPC, or 3rd party developers for iPhone & Mac OS goodies, I am all for.

those doing the research are showing a much different outcome

In a word, no.

Ken, I read that link. It was twaddle, I'm afraid. You're relying on some babble by an outfit called Changewave Investing? What is it exactly that you extrapolated from that Appleinsider article, which was largely based on a survey of subscribers to whatever this Changewave outfit is? For all we know Changewave is one guy with about as much knowledge and expertise as Rob Enderle.

Here's what I "took" from it: more people who are aware of something called Changewave (4% and 9% more than those asked in March) are considering switching to Macs in the next quarter--the back to school buying quarter--than considered switching in March. This is news? This is a halo? There's nothing in the article, or research, to indicate respondents were even asked about Leopard or the iPhone. If you want to legitimize a supposed link to an explosive halo effect shouldn't you ALSO ask the respondents whether they were aware of Apple's current operating system, aware of Leopard and whether it had been delayed, had seen an iPhone ad on television, etc? Shouldn't you discount what else might be accounting for the % increase? I'm not a statistician or a pollster, but without asking those questions, and without comparing March '05 and June '05 results to March '06 and June '06 results, I'm afraid you're left with survey results that don't actually reveal anything.

I'll need something a little more rigorous before I leap to an unprecedented iPhone halo effect.

"Halo" effect switchers aren't waiting for Leopard and probably don't even know what it is. They aren't complaining about the last MacBook update, they are buying MacBooks like hot cakes.

But the point is folks were already buying Macbooks like hotcakes, and will continue to do so as we approach back to school season; and we already know more people are buying laptops than desktops. This is old news, we've seen this trend upward for Apple since early last Summer.

What percentage of iPhone buyers do you think don't already own a Mac? Is that who you're thinking of as potential "halo effect" switchers? Or also those influenced by advertising for the iPhone? If so, that's still a small percentage, don't you think, though one that will undoubtedly grow. And don't you think a larger percentage of people considering buying the iPhone HAVE ALSO already heard of Leopard being delayed? That subject was covered very extensively in the media and via FUD campaigns. Is it a reach to assume that most non-Mac owning but new iPhone owners will wait for Leopard just like we Mac HT types will? In my mind, no reach at all.

I think we're going to have a very tough time quantifying a supposed iPhone halo effect.

I'll need something a little more rigorous before I leap to an unprecedented iPhone halo effect.

All good points, and I think you are right to call me on my use of the term 'research' which probably doesn't apply well to that survey.

- I don't blame you for wanting something more rigorous, although you probably won't get it until the trend is already instantiated. Still, one could surmise - it's more than the rigor leading to you're own 'doubtful' conjecture; since there are certainly no rigorous surveys to draw that conclusion, we'll just have to say it's another set of opinions that contradict yours - :) ; I think though, I'll place my bets that the odds are in Apple's favor that iPhone will draw to more mac sales, just as iTunes/iPod did.

ken

Another thought:

The iPhone hype has elevated the battle between Flash and h.264 to a much more visible arena. First was Adobe's reticence to support h.264 a few years ago for FLV (Flash Video) files, opting for ON2's VP6 codec. Then Apple convinces YouTube/Google to support h.264. Maybe this is Apple's way of trying to force Adobe into adding h.264 support if it wants on the iPhone. I wouldn't want to be ON2 right now with your #1 vendor under attack from Apple. While ON2 has convinced ABC to use VP7 in its upcoming online HD service next month, the question is will it survive?

As it seems that VP6/7 is positioned at the lower bit rate handheld market, and less-than-true HD market for streaming HD, Apple seems to be taking a huge battle on with its strategy of not putting Flash on the iPhone (and giving us Ajax as a work around). What we really need now is a robust authoring system for multimedia online distribution for h.264 that can compete with the likes of Flash and MS's Silverlight. It's the missing piece of the puzzle. Apple may have told us at WWDC that Ajax can be used in that capacity, but that is a less than desirable solution.

I'm taking a stretch here. A lot of this points to Apple (or a partner) trying to come up with a third viable authoring system to deliver HD and multimedia via the web. Once that piece of the puzzle appears, then we can see some huge momentum shift towards Apple's opaque HD strategy, which will give it the leverage it needs to open the studio gates. If the iPhone can provide a mechanism to deliver HD that competes favorably with Flash and Silverlight, then the playing field changes. Redirecting developers towards Ajax will spur major development efforts in that arena. It starts to make sense. Is Apple pushing along Adobe's AIR project behind the scenes with its moves n hopes it can influence its development as a robust alternative or successor to Flash?

I read where Apple/ATT won't allow the iPhone to be used as a modem. AT&T's EDGE network is supposedly slow, but if you're paying for unlimited data, why the heck not? Perhaps between the Mac and aTV, they feel that's more than enough web access.

I wonder if this will change with the 2nd gen phone.

I like the phone , but theres two things I don't like that I read today in the newspaper. They said that you can't do text messaging and the camera only does still pictures no videos.

They also said that the ipod connector is the same, but alot of the adapters still won't work.

This is what I read though.......

I like the phone , but theres two things I don't like that I read today in the newspaper. They said that you can't do text messaging and the camera only does still pictures no videos.

They also said that the ipod connector is the same, but alot of the adapters still won't work.

This is what I read though.......

You can send text messages fine. It won't do IM (AIM, MSN Messanger, etc.) right now, but that's a software update away.

As for Apple partnering -- I agree they should, just not by licensing out OS X. But partnering with an Elgato to add DVR functionality to their HTPC, or 3rd party developers for iPhone & Mac OS goodies, I am all for.
As much as I would love it if Apple were to truly embrace DVR capabilities on the Mac, I have to believe that it's not on Apple's radar. With the current mess that TV is in right now (OTA digital transition, cable card support, satellite's proprietary hardware, etc), I don't see Apple wanting to get into that fray for what really is a tiny tiny market.

The way it is right now, cable is the only venue worth persuing on the HTPC front (some will argue ATSC, but only a small percentage of viewers use antennas) and with the way the whole cable card thing is going ...

I think Apple has their own business model that they are working with and it does not include TV in the traditional sense. Apple's model is for people to buy TV shows at $2/pop and movies at $15/pop. Perhaps they'll bump it up to HD resolutions and add a movie rental model. This is the way I see Apple approaching the family room TV. It's all about the aTV ... we just want/need the HD content to be there.

ft

I think I agree with that ft. Best guess from this corner is Apple will stick to the expanding TV options delivered by the internet / IP TV based only and let third parties provide solutions to integrate with that from cable and other.

ken

Sure. Apple's going to go the iTunes route whole hog for its video strategy. While Apple's partnerships with Google and at&t, and their YouTube and U-verse streaming and iptv services (and akamai for major downloads) could provide some interesting scenarios that could challenge cable head on, it is way too premature to speculate where this will end up.

As to Apple partnering with 3d parties to extend the appleTV or Mini (or its successor), there is little to go on. I think it is a risky go-it-alone proposition for such extensions in light of Apple's iTunes-dominated approach, and lack of roadmap. It's a real case of the big fish eating the little fish here, and a small pool to play in at that. I think Apple's strategies are going to center around a dumbed-down approach that will appeal to the masses (read: less than DVD quality videos, with DVD quality probably next), and continually frustrate us AVS types.

Throw in the iPhone, and the puzzle gets larger, with many more unknown pieces, and many more possibilities. with two wireless devices in the living room (iPhone and appleTV) w/hdtv and a wireless PC/Mac in the den, what are the possibilities? Toss a touchscreen video iPod into the mix, and it gets more interesting. Of course we can go wild with filling in the blanks: wireless remotes, cross syncing videos, merging of web and tv, one-click HD downloads, etc. But how Apple's connected digital lifestyle will look in 5 years is really anybody's guess.

But I don't think Apple is going to do anything to assist or partner with businesses that seek to extend cable or satellite TV's reach in the home. Frustrate them and us, yes. Throw up roadblocks? They've already done that. Hi Ho iTunes, away!

yep - that all rings pretty true with my thinking wildrock; I do think we'll see them do some HD things though - hope so anyway...

ken

All I know is that the lack of an update to the Mini is all we need to know about Apple's plans. Their HTPC solution IS the AppleTV. With an update to the mini, I can get 4 poeple to bite and switch over to the Mac, but apparently Steve doens't want to hurt the sales of AppleTV. These people wouldn't want an AppleTV. Please tell me where I am wrong? Apple wants to spoon feed us what THEY want in a HTPC, doesn't matter what WE want. An updated mini would be the biggest selling non laptop mac in history, yet Apple is dragging it's feet because it might hurt the AppleTV. So sad.

Apple wants to spoon feed us what THEY want in a HTPC, doesn't matter what WE want. An updated mini would be the biggest selling non laptop mac in history, yet Apple is dragging it's feet because it might hurt the AppleTV. So sad.
I don't even think HTPC is an after thought to Apple. They don't want to be in the HTPC business. They want to make media servers and to sell/rent/provide the content on those servers.

As for the mini, I too wish that Apple would update them. However, I don't think an upgrade would result in a huge splurge of mini buyers... but I guess it depends on the scope of the upgrade.

I've thought about it and here's what I want to see in the next mini.

Core2Duo
Airport Extreme-N
Better graphics card (either Intel3000 or dedicated)

As you can see, it's not too crazy a wishlist. I've deliberately set my sights low so that Apple may be able to hit my target. The last Mac that totally met my requirements was the original white iBook. Every other Mac had some sort of flaw that prevented me from buying.

Now even with my low targets, Apple will probably miss because they'll probably discontinue the mini. :(

Their HTPC solution IS the AppleTV.I'd have to disagree. While Apple's "easy solution" to getting video from the iTunes Store to your hdtv is the appleTV, the appleTV is not an "HTPC". As hard as Apple or anyone else here who wants to say the appleTV is a solution to a problem that begs an HTPC, it just isn't going to happen.

I don't care how robust the appleTV becomes, until it can do everything that a Mini, or any other Mac for that matter can, it won't serve as a replacement. This is because by definition, an htpc is a full-blown computer that can interface with a hdtv and a home audio system. The appleTV is not a full-blown computer--it could be, but not if Apple has anything to say about it. And on top of that, the variety of things that people have chosen to do on an htpc far exceed the ability of the appleTV.

Apple will not win any converts from our crowd by trying to redefine what an htpc is by throwing us bones in the guise of "feature enhancements" for the appleTV. Once the appleTV meets the criteria for an htpc, then it ceases to be just the iTunes media extender that it was designed to be, and becomes Apple's Midget Mac.

Apple will not get far by trying to merge the two far different crowds: those looking for a full-blown, robust htpc; and those just looking to easily get content into the living room. Limiting the Mini's potential, or dropping it altogether will do nothing to shake loose the htpc crowd to buy appleTVs. Sure, some will buy them to do what they are good at--and several people here have. But replace an htpc? Nope.

My take is somewhat different. I see Apple as risk adverse when it comes to a) R&D for truly novel technologies and b) entering markets that Apple’s design and implementation of existing technologies into products allows for limited differentiation.

I see that all the pieces have been and are in place to provide HD across the board, along the lines often described in this Forum. What is not inviting to Apple is that they have yet to figure out how to implement all this old stuff in a way that would differentiate them from others. A flat screen is a flat screen and High Def is High def independent of vendor is a facile way to express the situation. I believe that for the most part this is the case today.
I think Apple will hold back on video based products except as a hobby (as per Jobs) unless it sees something that it can do in a way no one else has. On this point I believe that Jobs has more or less concluded that current video technology regardless of content and distribution processes is old and has little to allow him to differentiate Apple from others. At least I consider this to be the state of current video.

What might change? The clue I believe may be in what one can just slightly experience with high def video on a top quality screen today. I believe that is depth or “3-D” perception. I think that along with color and immersive sound draws people in. But of course, we are far far short on depth.

Thus, when or if video can be delivered in fully realized 3-D, thus changing the “theater in the living room experience” in a profound way, that is when I think Apple will be able to implement it in a manner that appeals to the market. Until then, expect to see lots of variations on old themes in HTPC and not much for us (HTPC crowd).

I don't even think HTPC is an after thought to Apple. They don't want to be in the HTPC business. They want to make media servers and to sell/rent/provide the content on those servers.

As for the mini, I too wish that Apple would update them. However, I don't think an upgrade would result in a huge splurge of mini buyers... but I guess it depends on the scope of the upgrade.

I'm not sure I'd go that far. There are three main reasons I could see for Apple not to release an updated mini -

1) Don't want to hurt the sales of AppleTV due to ease of use as a HTPC
2) They don't make enough $$$ per unit of mini, so force people who want a mac to move up to a more expensive unit.
3) Something else is coming along to replace the mini

I can see #1 & #2 being the reason it wasn't update for a long time. But now, I'm beginning to feel that it's #3. Hopefully it's not going to be replaced by the Cube 2.0 for $1500.

Like you, a mini with the specs you cited would be great. I could get 4 people to buy it right away. I can't in good conscience let people buy the mini as it is right now.

Apple will not win any converts from our crowd by trying to redefine what an htpc is by throwing us bones in the guise of "feature enhancements" for the appleTV. Once the appleTV meets the criteria for an htpc, then it ceases to be just the iTunes media extender that it was designed to be, and becomes Apple's Midget Mac.

Apple will not get far by trying to merge the two far different crowds: those looking for a full-blown, robust htpc; and those just looking to easily get content into the living room. Limiting the Mini's potential, or dropping it altogether will do nothing to shake loose the htpc crowd to buy appleTVs. Sure, some will buy them to do what they are good at--and several people here have. But replace an htpc? Nope.
Well stated! I can see myself getting an aTV for the photos and the overall user interface ... especially if they get HD rentals going. The aTV would certainly make it easier for my wife to enjoy content on our HDTV. It's just too cumbersome for her to connect the Macbook and the external drive to drag a Video_TS folder onto the DVD player application. Especially since I'm too cheap to buy a BT keyboard (BTW, when's that iPhone virtual keyboard/universal remote application going to be ready?).

The aTV might be the solution to a problem that I didn't realize I had. Now, it still doesn't solve the other problem I have (HTPC), but it's a start.

Here's another kicker. Apple would have sold me a mini and an aTV if the following happened.

Mac mini with a modest bump in specs
aTV supported Video_TS folders
aTV supported 720p and 1080i MPEG-2 streams (from eyeTV or equivalent)

Right there, I'd be down for a $700 mini plus a $300 aTV plus $100 for a BT keyboard/mouse combo. Then miglia would get $200 from me for their latest device.

As it is, I bought a clearance Sony DHG-HDD250 to tie me over until Apple meets (or comes close) to my wishes.

ft

I've thought about it and here's what I want to see in the next mini.

Core2Duo
Airport Extreme-N
Better graphics card (either Intel3000 or dedicated)To that I'd add eSATA. Then I'd be happy, too.

The last Mac that totally met my requirements was the original white iBook. Every other Mac had some sort of flaw that prevented me from buying.I sure love my MacBook. No flaws that I've been upset with for the year I've had it. Sure, I wish I had the newest model. Or the MacBook Pro with the LED screen. No, make it the newest 17". But really, the MacBook is a great laptop.

Now even with my low targets, Apple will probably miss because they'll probably discontinue the mini. :(And when/if they do, they'll take a ton of flak for not having a cheap Mac for switchers to buy and plug their new iPhone/iPod video into. The larger the market, the more gaping the holes in the product lineup become, and the more people to criticize. Success breeds its own brand of scrutiny. And judging by what I've read lately about Apple, the scrutiny will heat up, flamed by the hype around the iPhone.

3) Something else is coming along to replace the mini

I can see #1 & #2 being the reason it wasn't update for a long time. But now, I'm beginning to feel that it's #3. Hopefully it's not going to be replaced by the Cube 2.0 for $1500.
I certainly hope you're right -- if it gives us everything we want in terms of HTPC hardware: small(ish) form factor & extreme quiet, but with extra features -- better video, extra firewire, add a headphone jack on the front, extra firewire (800), maybe 3.5" disk -- it would be worth paying more.

Call it the headless iMac -- same power as the iMac minus the screen. And if Apple wants to be paid for the LCD as well -- great, I'm all for it -- start selling those 40" and larger ones (or heck, have a video card that supports the 30" ACD).

I'm headed for the beach -- no posts for a while, and I can't even take pictures of people waiting for iPhones tomorrow -- life is just full of trade offs :)

To that I'd add eSATA. Then I'd be happy, too.Maybe I'm dumb here, but doesn't the mini currently use SATA drives? Or are you saying that a SATA port on the back?

I sure love my MacBook. No flaws that I've been upset with for the year I've had it. Sure, I wish I had the newest model. Or the MacBook Pro with the LED screen. No, make it the newest 17". But really, the MacBook is a great laptop.Yeah, don't get me wrong, I love the Macbook. In fact, I keep stealing it from my wife to use. It's just that it did have a flaw for me, which is really a moot point anyways. I wanted everything the MB is, but with dedicated graphics. I've since learned that the 950 is adequate ...

And when/if they do, they'll take a ton of flak for not having a cheap Mac for switchers to buy and plug their new iPhone/iPod video into. The larger the market, the more gaping the holes in the product lineup become, and the more people to criticize. Success breeds its own brand of scrutiny. And judging by what I've read lately about Apple, the scrutiny will heat up, flamed by the hype around the iPhone.I can't say that I know anything about mini sales, but maybe Apple just isn't making enough from selling minis. As for not having a low-cost Mac to connect all of those iPhones to, I suspect that most iPhone buyers have PCs anyways.

Or are you saying that a SATA port on the back?

dign, ding, ding, we have a winner. An eSATA port opens up all sorts of options for very fast, very affordable external storage options--faster and more affordable than firewire.

I can't say that I know anything about mini sales, but maybe Apple just isn't making enough from selling minis. As for not having a low-cost Mac to connect all of those iPhones to, I suspect that most iPhone buyers have PCs anyways.
Apple keeps harping about the halo effect. But the halo effect isn't going to last much longer if they are trying to sell stripped down, year old tech at the current prices of hte mini. You specifically cite "most iPhone buyers have PCs anyways". Yeah, the also have monitors for those PCs, so they are NOT going to buy an iMac for YET ANOTHER MONITOR, and they are not going to buy year old tech for $799. All of which equals N More Halo Effect.

dign, ding, ding, we have a winner. An eSATA port opens up all sorts of options for very fast, very affordable external storage options--faster and more affordable than firewire.
I'm interested in the capabilities of eSATA. I realize that speed is one big improvement over USB2 and FW.

Tell me, can a hard drive get power over the eSATA port? Or will the drive need it's own power adapter. I'm thinking about 2.5" drives in general.

ft

Apple keeps harping about the halo effect. But the halo effect isn't going to last much longer if they are trying to sell stripped down, year old tech at the current prices of hte mini. You specifically cite "most iPhone buyers have PCs anyways". Yeah, the also have monitors for those PCs, so they are NOT going to buy an iMac for YET ANOTHER MONITOR, and they are not going to buy year old tech for $799. All of which equals N More Halo Effect.
Fair enough. Just that I wonder what percentage of mini buyers were PC users to begin with. And were these switchers usign their old peripherals, or were they buying new keyboards, mouses, and monitors.

I suspect that Apple knows what they are doing and feel that it's in the best interest of the company and shareholders. If that means axeing the mini, then that's what they'll do.

Does it suck for a lot of people here, yes. But in the end, they do what they think is right.

That said, I would really love to get a new mini for HTPC duties.

ft

Fair enough. Just that I wonder what percentage of mini buyers were PC users to begin with. And were these switchers usign their old peripherals, or were they buying new keyboards, mouses, and monitors.

I suspect that Apple knows what they are doing and feel that it's in the best interest of the company and shareholders. If that means axeing the mini, then that's what they'll do.

Does it suck for a lot of people here, yes. But in the end, they do what they think is right.

That said, I would really love to get a new mini for HTPC duties.

ft
There is no more switcher friendly Mac for people who have a monitor already(what % of people would that be? hmmmmm 100%), than the mini. MY folks and my in-laws are willing to finally go Mac, they have their own monitors and don't want to buy another one. What is there? iMac? Nope. Mac Pro for $2.5K? hahahhahaha. They don't want a laptop. Seems pretty easy to me, yet has been a problem for apple for nearly it's entire existence.

The mini WAS the path to get my family to switch over to the mac. To bad I can't in good conscience allow them to buy year old tech with a horrible GPU for the price of the present mini.

I'm interested in the capabilities of eSATA. I realize that speed is one big improvement over USB2 and FW.

Tell me, can a hard drive get power over the eSATA port? Or will the drive need it's own power adapter. I'm thinking about 2.5" drives in general.

fteSATA can transmit data up to 3 times faster than FW800. And the new SATA 6.0 spec will double that. eSATA doesn't carry power over the cable, which is a downside. But you can connect up to 5 drives to one port with a port multiplier. So you can have a 5 disk external array. Another advantage is cost for single drive enclosures. You don't need a bridge board to adapt the SATA or PATA drive to Firewire or USB. It's a direct pinout from the drive to the port.

You can get portable enclosures with combinations of eSATA and either USB and/or Firewire for those times you'd rather not carry a power adapter. So I can load up data on my eSATA drive via my G4/5 server very fast, and take it wherever and use it via USB or FW just fine. Grab and go. I find that my eSATA drive enclosure with the pulled drive from my MB runs almost twice as fast over eSATA as it does over USB 2.0. That's significant if you're dumping 50GB+ of files to transport.

On another note, eSATA transmits data fast enough to get in at the bottom end of the uncompressed HD needs for indy video producers (unlike FW800). So it remains a very low cost alternative to the fiber channel or SAS storage needs of HD producers at the bottom end of the data transmission needs. It also allows for very cheap and fast data mobility--moving data from workstation to workstation if they are not connected via gigabit, or for mailing cross country. We ship a ton of video data between our remote video producers using eSATA enclosures. 400-500GB a pop (and soon 750GB-1TB when the new high cap drives drop in price a bit)

Fair enough. Just that I wonder what percentage of mini buyers were PC users to begin with. And were these switchers usign their old peripherals, or were they buying new keyboards, mouses, and monitors.Lots of new Mini buyers were PC users. And they ditched the desktop and used the keyboard, mouse and display. It was a good tactic by Apple to get people to Switch. It's just too bad that they didn't keep the strategy alive. Someone used to buying a 500-700 dell setup isn't going to want to spend $1200 on an iMac, or $800 on a year old Mini.

The mini WAS the path to get my family to switch over to the mac. To bad I can't in good conscience allow them to buy year old tech with a horrible GPU for the price of the present mini.There's no doubt that if Apple is going to capitalize on the halo generated by the current iPhone hype with new Mac converts and sales, and the increased market penetration if/when the cell meets Apple's goals, it is going to have to have a computer that those people will want to buy. Sure, a MB will be attractive to a lot of them, and most likely the MB and the iMac is the switcher computer of choice. But for those who want to replace their Dell or old Gateway/HP desktop, and use their current peripherals, the Mini needs a successor.

My guess is that we'll either see the Mini updated to be a decent Switcher box (ftaok's wish list) that we here can adapt to htpc use (hopefully with eSATA, though a Switcher box doesn't need that), or there will be a replacement. My bet is ftaok's wishes (sans my hoped-for eSATA) will be rewarded in the next 2-3 months. Then the Mini will languish for another year as we await Apple's next gen Macs. Yesterday Jobs spoke to Apple employees, and besides promising most of them a free iPhone, said "that some of the Mac systems coming out over the next year will be "'off the charts.'" Whatever that means. I'd be happy if some of the Macs we had today were on the charts. First things first, Steve. Let's take care of today's needs before we start hyping up next years' Macs.

My guess is that we'll either see the Mini updated to be a decent Switcher box (ftaok's wish list) that we here can adapt to htpc use (hopefully with eSATA, though a Switcher box doesn't need that), or there will be a replacement. My bet is ftaok's wishes (sans my hoped-for eSATA) will be rewarded in the next 2-3 months. Then the Mini will languish for another year as we await Apple's next gen Macs. Yesterday Jobs spoke to Apple employees, and besides promising most of them a free iPhone, said "that some of the Mac systems coming out over the next year will be "'off the charts.'" Whatever that means. I'd be happy if some of the Macs we had today were on the charts. First things first, Steve. Let's take care of today's needs before we start hyping up next years' Macs.
My guess would be that the one thing that is guaranteed to NOT be on the update/replacement is an eSATA. For a consumer machine, Apple has hsitorically pushed the USB/firewire as most that is needed. That AND they don't want to hurt their ATV sales.

I am using a Mini in my HT system now, pretty slick easy to use and it is hooked up to a 92" screen.. As for the iPhone, I am holding one in my hand at the moment and it is also pretty slick, intergrates very well with the wireless in the house, wife was playing with it and she not a gadget fan, and she thinks it's cool.... I am in trouble now.... ;)

ftaok: I am with you on the i TV specs etc... I am in waiting mode, I just hope all this downloading of movies doesn't go through... Downloading movies and the net just don't mix!! Services just went down and hasn't been up for an hour or so, and I can see this being a royal pain especially when we need huge bandwidth for HD movies...

Apple adding a new HD capable device? Hardly. THey are gonna stick the aTV model and iTunes store purchases which I am not interested in. 90%? of HD users love their rented HD cable boxes. I'm in the 10%?, and bought 2 of the discontinued Sony DHG-HDD500 HD DVRs (500gb each) that nothing else can match. they each hold 60 hours of HD and 400 hours of SD. (OTA, Cable, CC, HDMI, TVGOS). No fees. I also use Sony DVD recorders with 160gig hard drive for SD material I can edit and burn to DVD. I don't need a clumsy PC to record HD or SD.

Also, I just ordered my first Mac, an Intel mini cause I want to do www. and email on my LCD widescreen TV, for now.


PS- Is it true that many years ago, I seem to remember that Sony and Apple were in secret talks to create products together. Would have been really good for both, esp Sony.

gigaguy... Using Final Cut Pro and a Mac who said anything about a PC.... ;) Apple will eventually get into the HD market but it won't be for awhile and download speeds blow for that to even take off at the moment.

...and download speeds blow for that to even take off at the moment.Actually, I can click on a 720p trailer at Apple's trailer site, and start playing it about 5 seconds after it starts downloading, and it will never stall. The download proceeds faster than I need, in order to watch the whole thing. Running 8Mps cable internet. Download speeds for anybody in this range isn't a problem. If Apple and akamai can deliver trailers like this, there is no reason they can't do the same for full length movies. One-click at iTS, and start watching within 5 seconds. Everything is in place (delivery-wise) except for the desire by Apple and the studios to do so.

I was a bit surprised to be able to walk into my local ATT store and pick one up last night around 830. One of two stores in a medium city, the clerk said they got around 150 to sell, so Apple is making sure there are plenty to go around. I debated for a day or so whether to get one, but decided to go ahead. Here's why:

The reviews, while not without some reservations, were fairly glowing. Apple's promo (which threw my Hughesnet sat-net into FAP :eek: ) for the "medium-size" file download) was tempting, and I was probably in the top ten per cent of "well-positioned" cell users to make the transition. I've been a Cingular sub. for more than two years, and I have never been thrilled with the Treo 650 and its Edge network internet access. Some months ago, I dropped the internet coverage and had just been using the phone as a GSM (world) phone on business travel, and to augment my mostly local use other cell phone. So, for me, it's just an extra 20 bucks a month (and I get to keep thousands of bankrolled "rollover minutes,) and a two-year extension, and I hope I'll actually use this phone more. By far, the biggest incentive for me was the wireless internet access, by the way. (The Edge access is slow - I checked Toast.net today and got 40K).
After just a few hours with the iPhone, I can see this is probably going to be a pretty big success for Apple. Everyone who sees it want a short demo. My teen-age kids love it. They'll probably make their projection of 10 million by 2008, and then some, especially if they open up foreign markets, which I believe they are planning to do.
Things I wish it had are a video camera (even something really simple, like my Razor has) and (blue-skying here) GPS navigation to mate with the excellent Google Maps and Satellite (Google Earth, basically). But the latter would no doubt push the price up at least a couple hundred more.
I can see the next generation iPhone being a real winner, and probably beginning a "dynasty" on the lines of what Apple did to MP3 players with the iPod. It won't be quite as dramatic, perhaps, as the playing field is so much larger, and the competition will not sit idly by as the "convergence leader" walks away with all the trophies. But, make no mistake, this is a big deal. Apple is onto something here. And, for what it's worth, I have never owned a MAC (thinking about replacing the Toshiba laptop with one in a year or so), and didn't buy an iPod until this year.

I got mine last night ( and on for the wife as well); She's absolutely entranced (not a techy). Showed it to some neighbors and their kids last night with drooling results... I must admit, this thing is addicting - very intuitive and behaves more like a computer in your hand, but with an elegant interface. The first time I've seen this level of integration - In one fell swoop - I'm browsing my music - watching movies - full internet - answering phone calls - etc. with relative ease of use. I'm not easily impressed, but got to admit - nit-picks aside... this thing is just too cool not to sell a ton...

ken
by the way; iPhone plays movies in both AR and the wide screen filled;
this post completely entered via iPhone!! Cool

Actually, I can click on a 720p trailer at Apple's trailer site, and start playing it about 5 seconds after it starts downloading, and it will never stall. The download proceeds faster than I need, in order to watch the whole thing. Running 8Mps cable internet. Download speeds for anybody in this range isn't a problem. If Apple and akamai can deliver trailers like this, there is no reason they can't do the same for full length movies. One-click at iTS, and start watching within 5 seconds. Everything is in place (delivery-wise) except for the desire by Apple and the studios to do so.

Thanks for the input, just switched over the 10meg cable and so far so good....... Got the Apple Extreame and picked up an Airport Express, sick of the horrible wireless my DSL was providing me.

I wouldn't expect anybody to admit error in public...; Usually by the time it's obvious those people just disappear!! :)

However some of the early research numbers are showing iPhone >> Mac Halo effects are virtually certain;

USA article:
30% of iPhone buyers are first Apple purchase buyers;
40% are first iPod buyers;
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/wireless/phones/2007-07-12-iphone_N.htm?csp=34

ken

I wouldn't expect anybody to admit error in public...; Usually by the time it's obvious those people just disappear!! :)

However some of the early research numbers are showing iPhone >> Mac Halo effects are virtually certain;

USA article:
30% of iPhone buyers are first Apple purchase buyers;
40% are first iPod buyers;
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/wireless/phones/2007-07-12-iphone_N.htm?csp=34

ken
While that is definately a good article for Apple, it doesn't show a Halo effect for Mac sales. All it's saying is that people are very happy with the iPhone. I don't see a connection between the iPhone and increased Mac sales.

Now, I do agree that iPhone buyers that are very happy with Apple may become Mac buyers in the future, but there's no evidence (as of yet) to support this.

ft

No it doesn't show it - as nothing can possible show something before it happens... In fact, we may never know for absolute sure since any research can be refuted and argued. We can only conjecture on whether it will happen or not.

I'm saying those who guessed there would be no Halo effect are looking to be up against long odds when such high percentages of buyers are new to Apple and extremely happy with the purchase to boot.

ken

No it doesn't show it - as nothing can possible show something before it happens... In fact, we may never know for absolute sure since any research can be refuted and argued. We can only conjecture on whether it will happen or not.

I'm saying those who guessed there would be no Halo effect are looking to be up against long odds when such high percentages of buyers are new to Apple and extremely happy with the purchase to boot.

ken
Gotcha. Now I understand what you're saying.

I do agree that all of this good publicity for the iPhone and iPod can do nothing but help sell Macs. Now it's up to Apple to put out some ridiculous Macs for people to buy!

I'm really itching for a C2Duo mini. And I could also use another Macbook to replace my iBook (currently auditioning for the role of print server).

ft

I'm really itching for a C2Duo mini. And I could also use another Macbook to replace my iBook (currently auditioning for the role of print server).

ft

I'm with you there! Waiting for the fall Mac releases to point a way forward - new mini or something else that will work just as well or better. Some are talking about a possible sub-notebook using all flash (ie no boot time) that could also work well... Can't wait!!

ken

I think we could devolve into arguing semantics here, if we're not careful.

Is the "halo effect" just increased purchases of Macs because of the iPhone's widespread media coverage and x amount of iPhone purchases? Or is the halo effect really just an increased awareness of Apple and it's products in the market? An effect greater than the sum of its parts?

If you look at the latter, you'll see that there are many who speculate that the iPhone hype generated over $400 million dollars in free advertising (just go to Google and type in iphone 400 million). And as any good market analyst knows, this generates sales for a product that is worthy (didn't work for "Snakes on a Plane" or the Zune for instance). In this case it is directly related to sales of iPhones.

I would offer that the halo effect really just broadens and intensifies the efforts by Apple to market its products through its traditional means. And looked at in that way, it will inevitably increase the likelihood of a consumer purchasing an Apple product. Halo effect can be quantified in the way that it provides free marketing, as the Google hits will show.

How to quantify and verify if a halo effect actually translates into Mac sales, though is a very difficult thing to do. And it can only be done in hindsight. So, can prelaunch iPhone hype, and the halo generated there be responsible for many Mac sales ("oh, the iPhone is being released next month, and it's going to be so great I'm going to run out and buy a new Mac")? Probably not many. But once a bunch of iPhone customers new to Apple get a taste of the Apple/Mac way of doing things, it is likely that when presented with the choice when looking for a new computer, when before that choice never really existed, one might choose a Mac. And Apple's releasing Safari for PC (and being available through iTunes), will only contribute to this effect--let's get as much Mac mindshare in front of PC iPhone purchasers as possible.

In time the numbers will come out about who is buying iPhones, and how many of them use Macs vs. PC's. One of the great things about Apple's controlling activation and software updates via iTunes is that they will get a ton of marketing data that will identify and track iPhone customers' use of computers--and a whole lot more. After a while, I'm sure we'll see some nice numbers shown off in one of those slick Apple PR graphs (maybe at MacWorld '08) that x% of virgin iPhone purchasers used PC's, and that 6 months later, y% of those users had switched to using a Mac to manage their iPhone.

Now that's an advantage that no other cell phone manufacturer has. And market data like that is priceless, and undoubtedly will prove to Apple if the halo effect works for iPhone purchasers when they buy their next computer. Whether Apple will release the full extent of this market data, of course is anybody's best guess. But it is what the market analysts will be looking for.

And Apple has another ace up its sleeve that it hasn't used yet. I think that it is inevitable that Apple will use the iTunes Store to begin to advertise Macs. Plug your iPhone into your PC, iTunes boots up, and as it begins to sync, you're presented with an ad for the shiny new Mini Max--the ultimate AV supercomputer for the masses, complete with a pink pony. That would only make sense (not the xMac--but that's a story for another thread). And that will generate some sales. Pure halo effect in action. iTunes is the trojan horse in this whole equation, and the extent to which it will be used to leverage iPhone, iPod, and appleTV sales into greater Mac market share is yet unseen. Where iTunes goes, Mac sales are sure to follow, I believe is the mantra spoken in the back rooms of Apple.

Now the last question remains: will iPhone hype or halo influence non iPhone purchasers? Probably not directly, as it will with iPhone purchasers. But to the extent that it sways a computer purchaser to even look at a Mac, when they wouldn't have done so before, it is a huge bonus for Apple, and will probably translate into some sales--though probably not significant numbers. After all, you'll never buy a BMW if all you do is look at Fords. But if everybody is wow'ing about the new BMW, you might stop in and see what all the buzz is. And if you can afford one, the product will sell itself. Such be Mac vs. PC.

Very interesting analhysis (http://www.comscore.com/press/release.asp?press=1518) from comScore about iPhone marketing hype. Here's an excerpt:

"iPhone-Related Searches Generate More Than 2 Million Click-Thrus to Apple.com Since Beginning of 2007


RESTON, VA, June 29, 2007 – comScore, a leader in measuring the digital world, today released a study on U.S. search activity related to the Apple iPhone, revealing that Americans have conducted an average of 274,000 iPhone-related searches per week since the beginning of the year. iPhone-related search activity is defined as all searches containing any derivation of the term “iPhone.”

January iPhone Announcement and June Advertising Campaign Cause Spikes in U.S. Search Activity

Product-specific search activity can provide an important gauge of consumer demand. comScore’s study of iPhone-related search activity since the beginning of the year revealed some interesting insights into consumer demand and interest surrounding the iPhone.

When the product was first announced by Apple CEO Steve Jobs at Macworld on January 9, iPhone-related search activity jumped to more than 1.1 million searches during the week ending January 14. From February through May, the number of weekly searches ranged between 80,000 and 200,000, which still represented very high levels of search activity for an individual product. By comparison, even during the post-announcement period the number of iPhone-related searches was comparable with the number of searches for Motorola’s “Razr,” a well-established and popular cell phone already available to consumers.

As Apple’s major iPhone advertising campaign touched off in June, search activity once again spiked with 704,000 iPhone-related searches for the week ending June 10, followed by 727,000 during the week ending June 17, and finally peaking with 1.2 million for the week ending June 24.

“The iPhone launch is likely to be one of the biggest product launches in history, and the activity we’re seeing online clearly reflects widespread consumer interest,” said James Lamberti, senior vice president of search solutions at comScore. “This study also helps underscore the significant role search plays in both online and offline retail, since many of those researching the product online will be lining up at the bricks-and-mortar retailers to purchase their new iPhones.”"

wildrock-
I agree with virtually everything in your post.... iTunes is also an incredible advantage over existing phone makers none of which have anything like this kind of content access, management, syncing, etc. etc. etc.-

If Apple manages to make a couple more 'Living Room' appliance moves and content deals - they will be in a position to finally deliver on this 'Integrated Life' thing that so many have just verbalized for years... BTW I think revamped .mac services will come on strong soon to carry iTunes to a more global form of integration...

ken

I like the iPhone so far, my only gripe is it does not have a TV output, which really blows in my case.. I remember Steve Jobs saying it could do video out, when I saw his last presentation, is there going to be a firmware update for this? Also anyone that has a Mini, do not use the new updated software... 10.4.10, seems to be causing all sorts of problems, for me and many others. Works fine on my MacPro....

I like the iPhone so far, my only gripe is it does not have a TV output, which really blows in my case.. I remember Steve Jobs saying it could do video out, when I saw his last presentation, is there going to be a firmware update for this? Also anyone that has a Mini, do not use the new updated software... 10.4.10, seems to be causing all sorts of problems, for me and many others. Works fine on my MacPro....

No, what he said during the keynote where he introduced it was that the iPhone he was using had a special video board in it so he could demonstrate it on the big screen in front of the auditorium. You can download the keynote on itunes and see for yourself - it had a big ole connector running out the dock connector area. They could have yanked the battery pack out for room and rigged external power for that demo unit for all we know. I have no such need for a large screen link as most of the demos I have been forced to do have been up close and personal with members of the fairer sex who seem to be drawn to the iPhone like moths to a candle lol :D


As to the halo effect or whatever you want to call it, it doesn't really matter. If you make good quality products for a price people like they will be impressed and look at your other offering most likely. You can't put a price on giving a customer a good experience.

-Jerry C.

As to the halo effect or whatever you want to call it, it doesn't really matter.Except that the OP (Ted, back from the beach yet?) was asking about effects of a successful iPhone on the rest of the Apple ecosystem, and everybody and their brother are looking to see how the halo effect from it plays out this year. Could add another 10-15% to Apple's bottom line. That's huge.

most of the demos I have been forced to do have been up close and personal with members of the fairer sex who seem to be drawn to the iPhone like moths to a candle lol :DAnd as to this, it gives me another reason to be p****d that the iPhone isn't available in my state yet. :D But I don't think anyone has quantified the babe magnet factor on Apple's bottom line yet. It might even be greater than the halo effect. :rolleyes:

If you make good quality products for a price people like they will be impressed and look at your other offering most likely. You can't put a price on giving a customer a good experience.

-Jerry C.

I'll second that - Halo or not, that's job one!!


Didn't think about the Babe magnet part - a lot easier than carrying a baby around..!
Load it up with puppy dog pics...

ken

If you make good quality products for a price people like they will be impressed and look at your other offering most likely. You can't put a price on giving a customer a good experience.
Except that the OP (Ted, back from the beach yet?) was asking about effects of a successful iPhone on the rest of the Apple ecosystem, and everybody and their brother are looking to see how the halo effect from it plays out this year. Could add another 10-15% to Apple's bottom line. That's huge.
Exactly -- it would be great if the world worked how Jerry thinks it does, but a good quality product isn't enough. Look at Apple before iPod -- Steve Jobs' Apple was putting out great product after great product -- OS X, iLamp iMac, heck -- the G4 Cube -- and Apple's market share was going nowhere, 3rd party support was if anything worse than before Jobs took over.

I trust Apple to keep putting out quality Macs -- but if thanks to the iPhone phenomenon, Mac market share goes from 5-6% to 20%+ the world will change in a HUGE way, all to our benefit. Does anyone here think BBC would DARE put out Windows Only broadcasts (as they are about to start doing) in a 20% Mac universe? All those DVR dongles will come with Mac support, etc. etc.

And to deny a Halo effect at this point (or keep demanding evidence -- same thing) considering the Billions with a B dollars of free advertising Apple is getting due to the iPhone, is just silly. It is tantamount to saying that all advertising is worthless -- there are more than one industry that would cease to exist if that were true.

Really the Halo (and Mac market share) question right now isn't if it exists, it is how far it will go, and what the results will be.

There is a possibility that the iPhone will break into business in a major way against massive IT/MIS resistance. IF it does, it might start a moving Macs back into the workplace. A lot of IFs. We'll see.

Oh yes, I'm sort of back from the beach -- I'm posting from a Rome hotel. To my surprise you can buy stuff from iTunes ) or get freebees from Europe so long as you have your US Apple ID -- I guess that's all they check -- not IPs. Now if only the battery lasts long enough on the plane back to watch all this stuff :)

Oh yes, I'm sort of back from the beach -- I'm posting from a Rome hotel. To my surprise you can buy stuff from iTunes ) or get freebees from Europe so long as you have your US Apple ID -- I guess that's all they check -- not IPs. Now if only the battery lasts long enough on the plane back to watch all this stuff :)

Interesting, and good to know - thanks; I agree with your post - in fact Marketing in general plays an even stronger role that the product in many cases. When you can do both, you get the success Apple has seen in recent times; and well deserve IMO.

They need a few more moves to really shine, and for this crowd, need to make some serious upgrades in audio and HD; but I think they will do just that...

ken
Good flight, welcome back, and luck on the battery life!!
--Rome is fantastic--

Really the Halo (and Mac market share) question right now isn't if it exists, it is how far it will go, and what the results will be.

It can go quite far when you are standing further back. In my town (Amsterdam), the last Mac store closed about 6 years ago. About 2-3 years ago, Apple(NL) partnered with some people and we now have three Mac/Apple-only stores. Six years ago, we had only one or two.

IAC, an upscale department store here has open an Apple store (leased) inside and computer/electronic stores have, for the past year or two, been selling (a lot of!) iPods. A few weeks ago, one of the largest electronic stores (which had been selling iPods) announced the opening of a Mac section.

IOW, the change here is huge. If someone wanted to buy a Mac four years ago, mail order was the only possibility. Today, there are stores in several parts of the city (I've got two stores within walking distances and a Mac-only repair shop also in walking distance). While the Apple/Mac stores are usually filled with people looking at the iPods, there are also many looking at the computers. I would guess that sales of Macs here have gone up several hundred percent over several years ago.

Mobile phones have been very popular here for a long time. Once the iPhone hits here, I expect the same thing to happen -- more people come into the Apple stores to look at and/or buy.

How much all this will turn to HT, I don't know. But more people have Mac now here, I think, than ever before.

That's a great concrete testament Further - and probably more indicative than most. I think the timing could hardly be better for Apple. With a clearly successful iPhone launch (marketing wise and otherwise) leading right into a (strongly rumored) new fall line up of iMacs and Leopard....
Which in turn leads right into the holiday shopping season... Hard to imagine a better series of synergies.... and all serviceable with the slew of recent new Apple stores.

As others have said - I really hope this gets us (AVS crowd) something we can sink our teeth into for media serving.

ken
http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/index.cfm?RSS&NewsID=18539

Of course there is a downside to huge Apple success -- and I think we are starting to see it now.

The entertainment industry is obsessed with control. The RIAA was willing to do a deal with Apple/iTunes initially because it was Mac only with a tiny marketshare. That no longer being the case, Universal is attempting to bolt in fear of Apple's power.

The movie studios are dragging their feet to a much greater degree than I would have anticipated in selling through iTunes. Again, they are obsessed with becoming to dependent on all mighty Apple. Nothing short of Napster scale piracy may push them to sell their entire catalogs (in DVD to HD quality) through iTunes.

The bright side is that an angry Apple might end up catering to our requirements -- DVR support, ignoring region coding, providing for DVD import in iTunes even.

Then again, I got an iPhone and if my awful experience with AT&T customer support is any guide (took 36 hours to activate) this whole discussion may be academic :) Of course now everyone in the office wants one...

It can go quite far when you are standing further back. In my town (Amsterdam), the last Mac store closed about 6 years ago. About 2-3 years ago, Apple(NL) partnered with some people and we now have three Mac/Apple-only stores. Six years ago, we had only one or two. I'm afraid the Apple wave hasn't reached Bulgaria yet. Ironically, during Apple's darkest days, the late 90's, early '00s there was a full service, Apple only store two blocks from my Dad's house with a knowledgeable and helpful staff. That store has been gone for a while, and at least according to Apple.bg's links it hasn't been replaced.

Some interesting thoughts there Ted and I can see the validity in them. Although I think iTunes generally signs non-exclusive deals with the studios (music and movie). Not sure they see Apple as a distribution market controller since they can offer to any other service concurrently and do in nearly all cases.

You're right - the relatively poor AT&T service has to be the known thorn in the Apple achilles heal. Mostly out of their control - at least until the exclusive contract is up.... :)

ken

From today's record Apple results: "- Mac business represents ~60% of Quarterly revenue. 33% year-over-year growth."

Again, I think that it is fair to say that the Halo is already in full effect -- Mac sales are rocketing. What's even more telling is that now they represent a substantially larger portion of Apple revenue than in the recent past -- up from ~50% to ~60%. For all the endless iPod/iTunes/iPhone hype, the Mac, more than ever, is the heart of Apple's revenue/profit stream.

And this is with an ancient iMac line and hardly updated MacPro line (just at the top end). Imagine after some serious updates in the non-laptop line, without LED display shortages, etc. I see more Mac records in the future.

EDIT: Fixed typo.

I agree. This holiday season may be a real blockbuster for Apple:
with the pending new iMac designs, leopard, iPod updates and now a rumored 3G iPhone in time for christmas sales...

a lot of things coalescing this year for them. May not ever have this many things coming together at once... I'm really hopeful that this crowd may finally see a resolution to the audio issues, improved DVD player, and at least some basic HD support. If so, we'll be in good shape for mac based HTPCs....(or not :) )

ken

Well Ted, I think this ChangeWave article (http://www.changewave.com/freecontent/viewarticle.html?source=/freecontent/2007/08/alliance-consumerPC-082107.html) puts the icing on your iPhone halo effect cake:

Great News for Apple (http://www.changewave.com/freecontent/viewarticle.html?source=/freecontent/2007/08/alliance-consumerPC-082107.html)

"Past 90 Days: A Mac Laptop Attack

In an ongoing alteration of the consumer PC landscape, Apple laptop sales surged to a new all-time high over the past 90 days -- up from 12% in June to 17% currently. This was an unprecedented five-point move. ...

Going Forward

We also looked at planned Apple Mac purchases for the next 90 days, and found more of the same ahead for Apple. Twenty-eight percent of respondents who said they plan to purchase a laptop said it will be a Mac -- mirroring the brisk momentum we saw in June. Another 23% said they'll buy an Apple desktop -- up one point from previously.

"These results are great news for Apple," says Tobin Smith, founder of ChangeWave Research and editor of ChangeWave Investing. "They serve as powerful evidence that the aforementioned 'halo effect' is indeed translating into real world Mac computer sales for Steve Jobs and company."

Much more in the article, including lots of fancy charts and colors, and statements like the following: "If the news for Apple can be described as great, then the news for Dell would certainly be described as ominous."

And:

"Perhaps the most impressive finding for Apple in this survey was its outstanding customer satisfaction rating. ... On the flipside, Dell was dead last among PC makers when it came to customer satisfaction."

Sell it off Michael. Game over.

Sell it off Michael. Game over.
That should be: "Close it and return the money to your shareholders, Mr. Dell." :)

I've never heard of Change Wave, so I'm not too sure about how reliable the info is, but plenty of other indicators are pointing in the same direction, and APPL has been up up up.

Another interesting point -- the PC segments where Apple actually competes: the $600+ home market; schools; laptops they have a rather high market share (12% to 25%). The question is whether they wish to go after even higher market share in those same markets or pursue new markets like big business and .gov

There was a recent John Siracusa article in Ars Technica arguing that Apple succeeds specifically by ignoring big business which allows it develop user centric, revolutionary products, while the Dells of the world are stuck making IT dept. centric, evolutionary (if that) products. But in the home market Apple has one glass ceiling -- inferiority in gaming. Which is rather ironic considering all the years people spent calling Macs "toys".

So does Apple go after the business or gaming markets, or just depend on continued growth under the present model?