This is a serious question, I need to know for a debate I am having with a friend and I figured the people here would know better than anyone. Has anyone credible (i.e. not some message board guy) picked HD DVD to win the war recently? I see columns all the time picking Blu Ray, but have there been any picking HD DVD to win? Thanks. :) If you could keep the answer to yes or no with a link it would be great, that way we can keep out all the excuses and commentary that will leak their way in.

I don't really think anyone credible has chosen Blu-Ray either....its just more that MOST articles written favor Blu-Ray. If you want a "credible" source the most credible to support BD would probably be BlockBuster right now.....and then youd go down to the movie studios as the other credible sources.....but other than that its just articles or blogs that seem to lean toward BD for the most part. Even if you wanted to use DigitalBits or some site liek that youll hear a backlash of "fanboy" or "shill".....the best thing you can do is just research yourself......its not as complicated as some people make it, look at the movies available to you, the software is the same price, are you willing to spend an extra couple hundred for Sony, Disney, Fox, Lionsgate, BVHE........If those interest you enough to spend an extra one itme cost of $200-$300 than you should buy into Blu Ray, if you think sacrificing the aforementioned studios for Universal titles and saving th emoney is worth it then invest in HD DVD. Good luck to you and your friend, and dont get caught up in the crazy "format war" i dont care which companys make what format, i want HD Movies and Blu Ray gives me more of the movies I want than HD DVD, to me thats totally wortht he extra one time investment cost of $300 for a BD player :)

EDIT: So id say you shouldnt need any "credible" source to prove an argument one way or another.....neither is "better" as far as HD viewing, one is better for storage but if youre arguing strictly movie viewing, th eonly solid case you can make is exclusive studios which helps BD in an argument. Kind of a catch-22, th eonly credible sources we have are teh corporations haha, so unless you want blogs your eleft with studio support

If you look at polls here, and number of section readers, you'll find HD-DVD is more popular among the cognoscenti

Someone 'credible' picking a format to win is an educated guess at best.

HD DVD seems to be more popular with the majority here, since a lot of us are early adoptors and are practical with our purchases. HD DVD was around first, offered a better feature set from the start, and a more competetive price.

If you look at polls here, and number of section readers, you'll find HD-DVD is more popular among the cognoscenti


Your statement is very bold. I think I'd like to see the proof of it.


Thanks!

This is a serious question, I need to know for a debate I am having with a friend and I figured the people here would know better than anyone. Has anyone credible (i.e. not some message board guy) picked HD DVD to win the war recently? I see columns all the time picking Blu Ray, but have there been any picking HD DVD to win? Thanks. :) If you could keep the answer to yes or no with a link it would be great, that way we can keep out all the excuses and commentary that will leak their way in.


I havent read anything from anyone credible predicting this on either side.

This is a serious question, I need to know for a debate I am having with a friend and I figured the people here would know better than anyone. Has anyone credible (i.e. not some message board guy) picked HD DVD to win the war recently? I see columns all the time picking Blu Ray, but have there been any picking HD DVD to win? Thanks. :) If you could keep the answer to yes or no with a link it would be great, that way we can keep out all the excuses and commentary that will leak their way in.

I think that Napoleon at Waterloo was overheard saying that HD-DVD would win. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Your statement is very bold. I think I'd like to see the proof of it.


Thanks!
Check out some of the poll threads. I haven't kept track but it sure seems to me that there are a lot more HD DVD supporters on this forum than BR.

Check out some of the poll threads. I haven't kept track but it sure seems to me that there are a lot more HD DVD supporters on this forum than BR.


Haven't read those early Blockbuster threads? It seemed to me most HD DVD "supporters" (to understate it) were severely outnumbered.

So again. Proof, please.

Your statement is very bold. I think I'd like to see the proof of it. Thanks!
Here http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=869704 and here http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/index.php? - scroll down to see number of viewers. They are closer than I though but HD-DVD is still ahead (when I last looked)

Here http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=869704 and here http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/index.php? - scroll down to see number of viewers. They are closer than I though but HD-DVD is still ahead (when I last looked)

When I looked, BD was ahead on hardware and HD DVD was ahead on software.

edit: IMHO, hardware is actually the more forward looking of the two.

Those numbers are quite different than when I first looked. Short term fluctuations may make it hard to tell.

Here http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=869704 and here http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/index.php? - scroll down to see number of viewers. They are closer than I though but HD-DVD is still ahead (when I last looked)

Looking at time frames and numbers at this second, I can interpret that AVSers bought into HD-DVD when it was launched and then now, as Blu-Ray is winning, are starting to buy into that format. Recent sales favor BD with the bulk happened pre Sept 07. Purchases in late 07 and early 08 continue the trend of skewing toward BD.

This is not really a valid poll unless we see real dates. Do AVSers prefer HD-DVD because it is better or first or because they believe it will win? Lots of motivations can lead to one end result.

Check out some of the poll threads. I haven't kept track but it sure seems to me that there are a lot more HD DVD supporters on this forum than BR.

Polls are pretty meaningless in forums, particularly of ones this size. How many people that read regularly even know there is apoll regarding interests, support, etc?

I'm sure it's true on both sides of the fence, but I know a good number of blu-ray supporters have gone elsewhere over the last year due to the atmosphere here. That only helps to skew things as well.

I havent read anything from anyone credible predicting this on either side.


+1 for this.

to add my own thought: as long as either or both formats do not offer the $99 player and movies that drop in price over time (as opposed to price-fixed $20 catalog titles and the up to $35 day and date releases that don't drop muc), there will be no winner and both will be relegated to niche status. For example: Batman Begins HD DVD is $24.99 at retail stores and $19.99 online while the SD version is $6.88 at Sam's Club. Or the same is true for The LAst Samurai BD or any other High Def release. Price is holding both back. Day and date titles are going to cost more at launch, but over time in the real world market forces will make price drops a reality. Both high def formats are not doing what the market demands and as such are stuck where they are today.

This is a serious question, I need to know for a debate I am having with a friend and I figured the people here would know better than anyone. Has anyone credible (i.e. not some message board guy) picked HD DVD to win the war recently? I see columns all the time picking Blu Ray, but have there been any picking HD DVD to win? Thanks. :) If you could keep the answer to yes or no with a link it would be great, that way we can keep out all the excuses and commentary that will leak their way in.


To my knowledge no one credible has ever picked HD DVD to win. When I was looking at these formats back in April/June '06 it was Blu Ray this Blu Ray that and it clearly was the favored format which is why I knew very little of HD DVD and wasn't interested in it. Until...the reviews for the 1st gen sammy player started coming out. The magazine I subscribed to Home Theatre had a scathing review of it plus there was the poor first few transfers. So in July '06 when I was seriously looking to buy here I saw a poorly reviewed product at $1199 here in Canada compared to the A1 and XA1, which, notwithstanding the slow start times had stellar reviews of picture and sound. The A1 was $492 so it was an easy choice. Things have since come a long way from those days and Blu Ray has turned it around in many respects.

There have been quite a few "in"credible people in positions of responsibility who have said BD has already won. Baghdad Bobs I like to call them.

Purchases in late 07 and early 08 continue the trend of skewing toward BD.2008? How much does it cost for this time machine of yours? I want one.

Those numbers are quite different than when I first looked. Short term fluctuations may make it hard to tell.

... so they're not very good evidence that 'HD DVD is more popular among the AVS cognocenti '.

Has anyone credible (i.e. not some message board guy)

The problem is that nobody "credible" has picked any format to win yet. Those that do pick now (given such a short time frame) are all speculating and extrapolating without seeing the big picture financials. What you will mostly see is people and sites who have advertising dollars at work picking sides.

We have to wait for a completely neutral studio to tell us which they prefer from a business standpoint based on actual costs. Then we will have a good idea of what is going on.

Keep in mind that Toshiba and Sony are each pumping max dollars into their corners. If you'll notice, not many other CE companies are dropping prices as fast or as low. Some studios have even pulled back a bit. In the early days I had seen $49.99 MSRP on some of the HD disks. Even Best Buy had $35.99 on catalog titles! Not anymore ... whomever thought HDM was going to be a big "cash cow" was mistaken.

The problem with all of the predictions is trying to weed out those by parties with a vested interest in the outcome, or an agenda of some sort. It's a minefield...

This is a serious question, I need to know for a debate I am having with a friend and I figured the people here would know better than anyone. Has anyone credible (i.e. not some message board guy) picked HD DVD to win the war recently? I see columns all the time picking Blu Ray, but have there been any picking HD DVD to win? Thanks. :) If you could keep the answer to yes or no with a link it would be great, that way we can keep out all the excuses and commentary that will leak their way in.

there is never anything credible to anyone's statements. it's all a marketing campaign and hearsay. but if you look at which format has the most exposure, CE mfg's, and studio support. and then take that info and compare it to when each of these formats were introduced and who's involved. the answer is written clearly on the wall. one of them is a stepping stone to get to 1080p but don't hold that against me. i don't know sheeet. i just love to read.

The problem with all of the predictions is trying to weed out those by parties with a vested interest in the outcome, or an agenda of some sort. It's a minefield...

Anyone that owns one player or the other has a vested interest and therefore an agenda. It's amusing how many people pretend to be above the fray.

Check out some of the poll threads. I haven't kept track but it sure seems to me that there are a lot more HD DVD supporters on this forum than BR.

I ran a poll here a month of so back and asked which side do you WANT to win..

the HDDVD folks won the poll over 2 to 1...

I think the question of winning is meaningless without defining what "win" means. Who's winning in the Coke vs Pepsi war? I would assume that each company feels that they are being successful so long as their beverage continues to sell.

To my knowledge, only one of the formats based their strategy on the opposition being totally obliterated within a few months. So, it could be argued that format has already lost when weighed against its own stated projections. The other format, on the other hand, is weighing success on the same scale as Coke and Pepsi. So long as their products continue to sell, there is no reason to consider the existence of a likewise successful rival in the market a "defeat."

I think the question of winning is meaningless without defining what "win" means. Who's winning in the Coke vs Pepsi war? I would assume that each company feels that they are being successful so long as their beverage continues to sell.

To my knowledge, only one of the formats based their strategy on the opposition being totally obliterated within a few months. So, it could be argued that format has already lost when weighed against its own stated projections. The other format, on the other hand, is weighing success on the same scale as Coke and Pepsi. So long as their products continue to sell, there is no reason to consider the existence of a likewise successful rival in the market a "defeat."

Good post - makes a ton of sense. Winning = selling products.

This thread shows people on either side will argue all day long who's winning/won, even when hard sales figures are presented to them.

Even the HD-DVD camp like to include PS3 in one set of stats but not the other, spin and more spin.

You only need take a quick glance over the HD forums on AVS to see which group are confident about the future, it's pretty clear for all to see.

Some people would consider HD-DVD with 15% of the market in five years time a victory.

stevenmh I agree very much.

even with lack of most Studio support HD-DVD is still hanging in there. I just wish we could make the choice instead of the Studio's trying to make it for us.

As Far as the OP - IMO - you are going to be hard pressed to find a reliable source that picked or will pick HD DVD to outright win the war. That doesn't mean it can't happen. It just means that you have to take into account the PS3. It is not uncommon to have 10 million consoles worldwide. I believe there are that many 360's already. If the PS3 is supported with new games that will only work on it's platform - then it too will join the ranks of the 10 million+ club. As we know - there is a BRD player in every PS3 and eventually 80% of the world will go to HDTV - so every PS3 becomes a potential HD movie player.

In war there seem to be 2 ways to fight battles:

1. The Arc Light program - send up 1000 B52's and drop 50,000 bombs - just blast the crap out of everything

2. Grurrila Warfare - smal bands of fighters attacking a larger enemy.

In Vietnam - #1 was unsuccessful by us. And #2 was very successful against us.

Is BRD #1 and HD DVD #2? I don't know - from a first look it seems so doesn't it. And it has been successful for BRD as it has been successful for HD DVD - both in their repesctive quantities.

But the PS3 is a wild card - it is a game console and a BRD player. You can't do both at the same time with it. If some really hot games come out - how does that affect the sales of movies?

The SAL's are dedicated machines - they only play movies. Will it be a case where some new game becomes the Star Wars or LOTR of the game crowd - everyone wants it - everyone buys it - everyone is playing it?

Questions with no answers.

Your statement is very bold. I think I'd like to see the proof of it.

Here it is. At the end of May, AVSer's favored HD DVD over Blu-ray by 2:1.


http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=854714&highlight=poll

wow. 278 votes. That's definitive.

wow. 278 votes. That's definitive.

In this thread, it was claimed that HD DVD was more popular among AVSer's then Blu-ray. Someone asked for proof. I went to the trouble of searching out pages of polls to find this. I never said it was definitive. I never said nothng. Someone asked for proof and it was the closest I could find. FWIW, I would imagine that 278 votes is a reasonable sample of this forum, and 2:1 clearly indicates that HD DVD is favored. If you have a better example of some proof, then post it

There have been quite a few "in"credible people in positions of responsibility who have said BD has already won. Baghdad Bobs I like to call them.

That makes no sense. Baghdad Bob became an ironic figure because he was stating that they (Iraq) were winning the war against America when in reality they were getting destroyed, hence the irony and why it is funny.

Blu-ray has not been losing even remotely during the entire time the people you mention have stated that the war was over.

A far more analogous scenario would be the HD-DVD promo group acting like they are winning. See, they are losing very badly in just about everything. Household penetration, movie studio support, corporate support, consumer electronics backing, rental support, and worst of all, MOVIE SALES. Yet any press release that gives the impression that they are in fact winning is therefore a perfect Baghdad Bob analogy. It fits perfectly. They are losing badly in just about every facet yet they are acting like there is no problem and they are in fact winning. HD-DVD *IS* Baghdad Bob.

http://www.velvetrevolution.us/images/07-minister.jpg
"We are winning. There is no such thing as Blockbusters and I never even heard of these Blu-rays. Don't listen to them. "

BD companies telling us the war is over is more akin to George Bush's speech of Mission Accomplished on national TV. Though we did in fact demolish Iraq by that time and it was pretty clear to everyone who indeed was going to win the war, it was obviously premature to pronounce battlefield operations OVER. This is a perfect analogy to the premature declaration that the BD companies made that there is no longer a format war.

http://www.rogerbrandwein.com/images/mission-accomplished.jpg
"Huhuh... the war is over. Mission accomplished."

Either way I think it is pretty clear to everyone that the war is not over by any means, yet at the same time it is pretty clear who is winning.

You guys do realize that this thread now contains thirty-some posts, pretty much none of which answer the OPs question, and all of which ignore his request to post a simple yes or no and a link?

wow. 278 votes. That's definitive.

Aren't there at least some 100,000 registered members for AVS? (The member list is more than 4000 pages and the first few pages each have more than 40 members ...)

Anyone that owns one player or the other has a vested interest and therefore an agenda. It's amusing how many people pretend to be above the fray.
I agree with you for the most part. The only opinions that should be taken seriously at all are the from the people that own BOTH formats. Even some of these people may still have an agenda and own one of the formats just to trash it, but overall I think that neutral owners have the most objective opinions.

Some people would consider HD-DVD with 15% of the market in five years time a victory.There are folks on both sides of this issue who MIGHT think that a 15% market share in 5 years was something they could spin positively.

And, of course, they'd have little credibility. But this baseless enthusiasm would not be something unique to one format's fans.

People should stop belittling others simply because they (the others) find a certain development encouraging. If the PS3 is creating a lead for BD, then that's something that camp should be able to "brag" about without being belittled. And if the HD DVD camp thinks that an ongoing lead in stand alone player sales is something that might start to make a difference, then they ought to be able to express that without the resulting antagonistic, sarcastic posts from the other side.

All just my opinion.

In this thread, it was claimed that HD DVD was more popular among AVSer's then Blu-ray. Someone asked for proof. I went to the trouble of searching out pages of polls to find this. I never said it was definitive. I never said nothng. Someone asked for proof and it was the closest I could find. FWIW, I would imagine that 278 votes is a reasonable sample of this forum, and 2:1 clearly indicates that HD DVD is favored. If you have a better example of some proof, then post it

my response is not directed to you but these polls really mean nothing. only to the guys that need or want to prove a particular format is up and ahead. it does not encourage buying decisions for most of us.

here is the question. how many of us actually voted and agree? i know i didn't and i frequent this forum just about everyday to see what's new in terms of a/v, learn something new, and possibly lend a hand to members that may have some questions about equipment/suggestions. i usually skim right past the nonsense and rarely partake in any of these hddvd vs bd discussions. so i can speak for some of us bd folks. i'm no cheerleader and no fanboy but logic and anguish sets in after reading so many thread attacks, excuses, and bickering from primarily hddvd supporters(they are coming from the bd side too). everyday is a different excuse and then the slandering begins. but out of all this, i still fail to see any supporting views for hddvd and this is coming from someone as neutral as possible. i want both to prosper but hddvd is fighting a serious uphill battle ever since the introduction of the ps3. the firesale is on the hd-dvd side and i am 100% serious. i see hddvd's purpose in personal store all content and replacing cd/dvd's. bd's will be primarily for movies. so pick one or both...

As best as I can tell, no one is picking HD-DVD to win other than HD-DVD proponents who already have made an investment in the format. More recently, there is the appearance of evidence that Blu-Ray is clearly winning the format war because of the sales edge and studio support and the appearance of apparent media and B&M support for the format; how much of this is truth and how much is a possibly carefully orchestrated Blu-ray FUD/propaganda campaign remains to be seen.

The winner of the format war (if any) will primarily be driven by studio support. At the moment, Blu-Ray has the majority of the studio support. That may or may not change in the future though I serious doubt it.

I'd recommend no investment in the HD formats to my non-videophile friends until the format war is settled. I'd suggest to the video nuts to do careful research before they pick one side or the other. I'd also suggest to them Blu-Ray is the far "safer" (?) investment because of Sony's investment in the format, it's technically superior specs, and the majority of Studio support.

I'd also suggest to them Blu-Ray is the far "safer" (?) investment because of Sony's investment in the format, it's technically superior specs, and the majority of Studio support.

Hmmm...to me it was all financially based. I could wait 2-3 years and not enjoy any HD media or spend $250 now and start watching HD movies now.

My worst case scenario.

Buy HD DVD player in 2007 for $250....format goes away, buy BD player in 2009 for about $250 (my thinking of when they will hit that price point). Total out of pocket $500

Buying BD player in April 2007 (when I bought the HD DVD player) would have cost me $600-$900


So in the end, I will spend less money on hardware and get an extra 18-36 months of HD enjoyment...was a no brainer for me....plus I'm not a big Harry, Marvel, Pirate fan.

To the OP,

In short no, HDDVD has always been considered the underdog in the fight. With more corporate backing, you will see Bluray becoming more and more prevalent in the media and general public's mindset.

There is a difference between whom you want to win and whom you think will win, as many a fan of a minor sports team will tell you.

Hmmm...to me it was all financially based. I could wait 2-3 years and not enjoy any HD media or spend $250 now and start watching HD movies now.

My worst case scenario.

Buy HD DVD player in 2007 for $250....format goes away, buy BD player in 2009 for about $250 (my thinking of when they will hit that price point). Total out of pocket $500

Buying BD player in April 2007 (when I bought the HD DVD player) would have cost me $600-$900


So in the end, I will spend less money on hardware and get an extra 18-36 months of HD enjoyment...was a no brainer for me....plus I'm not a big Harry, Marvel, Pirate fan.

that is definitely good logic. buy one now and get the latter later, there is nothing wrong with that. it's a personal investment and each consumer has that choice. it's just all the negative format discussions that come day to day that make a deciding factor difficult for the new consumer. the mods need to monitor and delete them. i think we all pretty much decided on which format we'd like to go with and there's no convincing otherwisre until they wake up one day and say.... phuck! i need/want hddvd or bluray!!! it's all psychological...

What would the criteria be for finding someone credible and unbiased going in to the evaluation? I just see a bunch of people out there with opinions that have been developed largely with incomplete information/data. Consider the following:

1. We don't really know how entrenched the majority of the studios are in their current support models.

2. We don't have complete and accurate sales totals for software, especially when looking at actual volume of titles moved. Is it enough for studios to remain in the game at their current levels?

3. We don't know internally what it happening with Toshiba and Sony in regards to how much they can stomach in taking losses to win this war.

4. We don't know how other CE manufacturers are going to respond to slow hardware sales. Will there be a drive to continue/start support for the formats?

There are probably many other questions that could be considered. Without this knowledge, credibility will be hard to come by.

What would the criteria be for finding someone credible and unbiased going in to the evaluation? I just see a bunch of people out there with opinions that have been developed largely with incomplete information/data. Consider the following:

1. We don't really know how entrenched the majority of the studios are in their current support models.

2. We don't have complete and accurate sales totals for software, especially when looking at actual volume of titles moved. Is it enough for studios to remain in the game at their current levels?

3. We don't know internally what it happening with Toshiba and Sony in regards to how much they can stomach in taking losses to win this war.

4. We don't know how other CE manufacturers are going to respond to slow hardware sales. Will there be a drive to continue/start support for the formats?

There are probably many other questions that could be considered. Without this knowledge, credibility will be hard to come by.

Where are these losses that Toshiba is incurring?

http://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/finance/segment.htm

Hmmm...to me it was all financially based. I could wait 2-3 years and not enjoy any HD media or spend $250 now and start watching HD movies now.

My worst case scenario.

Buy HD DVD player in 2007 for $250....format goes away, buy BD player in 2009 for about $250 (my thinking of when they will hit that price point). Total out of pocket $500

Buying BD player in April 2007 (when I bought the HD DVD player) would have cost me $600-$900


So in the end, I will spend less money on hardware and get an extra 18-36 months of HD enjoyment...was a no brainer for me....plus I'm not a big Harry, Marvel, Pirate fan.
My purchasing decision was based on similar logic. I wanted to enjoy HDM now and HD DVD reached a price point that I liked so I bought it. I have favored HD DVD from the beginning but I am not a fan boy. As soon as a BR player is available under $300 I will buy one. I may even buy a PS3 before then.

Well, theres the polls...theres also the idiots with "HDDVD" and "Bluray" in their screen names just to show what format they support.

define credible for me please.

The way I see how little the HD market has penetrated the mass market... most people making predictions now are throwing their credibility on the line for the sake of making predictions. There a lot of parallels you can draw to a presidential campaign. In this case the public as a whole doesn't even know who the candidates are yet. So we just have a lot of pundies and people with money invested talking either out of their butts or their wallets. "well the american people will vote this way cuz their values are this or that" - maybe we should just wait for the primaries? This is coming from someone who leans towards the perceived candidate/format in the lead mind you. My desire to have one side win doesn't change the fact that the vast majority of people I know don't even own an HDTV yet and think Bluray is something Smurf related.

This is a serious question, I need to know for a debate I am having with a friend and I figured the people here would know better than anyone. Has anyone credible (i.e. not some message board guy) picked HD DVD to win the war recently? I see columns all the time picking Blu Ray, but have there been any picking HD DVD to win? Thanks. :) If you could keep the answer to yes or no with a link it would be great, that way we can keep out all the excuses and commentary that will leak their way in.

I'd say Blockbuster choosing to stock BD and not hd dvd in its retail stores is an endorsement by a credible 3rd party for BD to win.

Also the EU is investigating the BDA for possible anti competitive practices. To me that says the EU thinks the BDA is in a position of much greater power over hd dvd.

Hmmm...to me it was all financially based. I could wait 2-3 years and not enjoy any HD media or spend $250 now and start watching HD movies now.

My worst case scenario.

Buy HD DVD player in 2007 for $250....format goes away, buy BD player in 2009 for about $250 (my thinking of when they will hit that price point). Total out of pocket $500

Buying BD player in April 2007 (when I bought the HD DVD player) would have cost me $600-$900


So in the end, I will spend less money on hardware and get an extra 18-36 months of HD enjoyment...was a no brainer for me....plus I'm not a big Harry, Marvel, Pirate fan.

".....Buy HD DVD player in 2007 for $250....format goes away, buy BD player in 2009 for about $250 (my thinking of when they will hit that price point). Total out of pocket $500 ...."

Alternative scenario:
Buy Blu-ray player in 2007 for $450 (that price is available if one searches).....HD-DVD format goes away (that's unchanged from your scenario), buy HD-DVD player off eBay in 2009 for (including shipping costs) $50 (my thinking of when they will hit that price point). Total out of pocket $500.

So, if "out of pocket" is your only consideration, you could go either Blu-ray or HD-DVD for the same costs.

I'd say Blockbuster choosing to stock BD and not hd dvd in its retail stores is an endorsement by a credible 3rd party for BD to win.

Also the EU is investigating the BDA for possible anti competitive practices. To me that says the EU thinks the BDA is in a position of much greater power over hd dvd.

First, I haven't considered blockbuster a credible source even of SD DVD material for years. Second, they carry MOVIES. That's a conflict of interest that prevents them from being considered third party to the war.

There's a big difference between picking sides vs being qualified to make reasonable and unbiased predictions on the outcome of the war.

As far as EU goes, it has nothing to do with greater power. It has to do with abuse of power. There's a difference.

Finally, the OP has mentioned all the columns indicating BR to win. What are the qualifications of the authors of those columns? What are their ties to, or compensation from, the BDA, if any? Without asking those questions, and finding the answers, these columns should be considered as authoritative as personal blogs. One of BDA's strategy has been dissemination of "war is over" mantra through the media. HD DVDs strategy has been to advertise their product like any other without all the bluster. If anything, all the ranting by the BDA and BDA-biased columnists against HD DVD is a good indicator of the ongoing health of HD DVD. You don't ever see anyone ranting against UMD.

You don't see UMD ranting anymore. Go back to when it came out and there was plenty of articles about it and its poor health.

It's like saying ,"You don't ever see anyone ranting against DIVX"

Where are these losses that Toshiba is incurring?

http://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/finance/segment.htm
Probably better to wait until this Friday when Toshiba announces its recent quarterly results. The information we have today stops in March, and does not include the period where Toshiba slashed its player prices.

Buy Blu-ray player in 2007 for $450 (that price is available if one searches).....HD-DVD format goes away (that's unchanged from your scenario), buy HD-DVD player off eBay in 2009 for (including shipping costs) $50 (my thinking of when they will hit that price point). Total out of pocket $500.

So, if "out of pocket" is your only consideration, you could go either Blu-ray or HD-DVD for the same costs.

The only problem with that is that in April, the $450 price point wasn't there. The cheapest at that time was the Sony PS3 at $600....but with 7 pieces of Sony home theater gear dying on me just outside of warranty in the past 5 years, I refuse to buy any of their products (or re-badged products).

I also factored into that the best case (HD DVD survives) and I'm only out $250. So $500 (worst) vs $500 (best) and $500 (worst) vs $250 (best). The choice was obvious. Then again, the "$500 best for BD" wasn't available in April when I was in the market.

If you look at polls here, and number of section readers, you'll find HD-DVD is more popular among the cognoscentiIt is wrong to use AVS format supporters or AVS poll results as a way of determining which format the majority of the cognoscente support. This poll from last year here on AVS demonstrates this. http://archive2.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=700247

Over 63 percent of AVS'ers who participated in this poll (236 people) claimed to believe that Blu-ray would NEVER match the quality of HD-DVD. Even at the time this was ridiculous. Cognoscente might be the last word I would use for describing these 236 people. I have personally witnessed an extraordinary degree of irrational HD-DVD bias on these forums over the last year, despite all the claims to the contrary. There are level headed people on both sides I'm sure. And I'll call the percentage of cognoscente on either side equal.

Where are these losses that Toshiba is incurring?

http://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/finance/segment.htm

Since the street price of the A2 has been cut in half in the past 3 months, I made an assumption about the cuts putting stress on their financials (unless HD hardware was their greatest markup item prior to price cuts). We know first gen players were sold below build cost based on break downs of components at the time.

Toshiba is selling the HD DVD players below cost (HD-A1) (http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/06/23/toshiba-is-selling-the-hd-dvd-players-below-cost/)

The financial data you link tells us nothing about the effect of HD hardware on their bottom line, especially in light of price cuts.

In a thread seeking a credible source for choosing a format winner, we're pointing to internet polls? Incredible.

Since the street price of the A2 has been cut in half in the past 3 months, I made an assumption about the cuts putting stress on their financials (unless HD hardware was their greatest markup item prior to price cuts). We know first gen players were sold below build cost based on break downs of components at the time.

Toshiba is selling the HD DVD players below cost (HD-A1) (http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/06/23/toshiba-is-selling-the-hd-dvd-players-below-cost/)

The financial data you link tells us nothing about the effect of HD hardware on their bottom line, especially in light of price cuts.

The isupply story is old news - everyone knows about it. The A2 is a totally differnt machine than the A1. There has never been any proof that the A2 is being sold for a loss.

Also think about the fact that they have sold about 300,000 world wide.

You want to wait for the 26th - no problem - that happens to be the same day that Sony announces its's financials . . . THAT will be interesting.

You cannot make assumptions on the A2 because you do not know what it cost to manufacturer.

Since the street price of the A2 has been cut in half in the past 3 months, I made an assumption about the cuts putting stress on their financials (unless HD hardware was their greatest markup item prior to price cuts). We know first gen players were sold below build cost based on break downs of components at the time.

Toshiba is selling the HD DVD players below cost (HD-A1) (http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/06/23/toshiba-is-selling-the-hd-dvd-players-below-cost/)

The financial data you link tells us nothing about the effect of HD hardware on their bottom line, especially in light of price cuts.
No matter how much Toshiba is losing on their HD DVD players, that's got to be only a tiny, tiny, tiny fraction of how much Sony is losing out on their PS3. What is it? 300,000 HD DVD players against 7-8,000,000 PS3?

My main point was not how much, if any, Toshiba was losing. What we don't know is how long Toshiba or Sony or the studios will be committed to this format war. We can (and do) speculate, but it's all really guesswork.

The point of my post was, IMO, it is hard to determine what analyst might be credible based on the extremely incomplete information available.

My main point was not how much, if any, Toshiba was losing. What we don't know is how long Toshiba or Sony or the studios will be committed to this format war. We can (and do) speculate, but it's all really guesswork.

The point of my post was, IMO, it is hard to determine what analyst might be credible based on the extremely incomplete information available.

We are at the beginning of the format war - not the end as many would like to believe. HD DVD has too many cards left to play and they want to see how each card plays out.

The market for HDM both in players and movies is so small that almost anything can happen. You dont spend the millions of dollars to prefect a new format - then fold your hand when the first sign of dominance from the competitor comes around.

We have less than 600 titles between the two formats. There are less than 500,000 SAL players world wide. They sell 1 million DVD players per month. In the first half of 2007 they released over 700 new DVD titles - not retreads like HDM is doing.

You can't come to any conclusions - you are absolutely right - because when a market is this small - in 3 to 6 months - anything can happen.

The stats for DVD - 10 years old SID

210 million players sold

8 BILLION DVD's sold

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i46597294f152ad2d488998feb0840ffe

You guys do realize that this thread now contains thirty-some posts, pretty much none of which answer the OPs question, and all of which ignore his request to post a simple yes or no and a link?

The question is not really answerable since there is no truly unbiased opinions in the world about formats. I think post #2 answered the OP and then the war took over.

We are at the beginning of the format war - not the end as many would like to believe. HD DVD has too many cards left to play and they want to see how each card plays out.

The market for HDM both in players and movies is so small that almost anything can happen. You dont spend the millions of dollars to prefect a new format - then fold your hand when the first sign of dominance from the competitor comes around.


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i46597294f152ad2d488998feb0840ffe

That's how HD-DVD like to spin it but the reality is retailers, CE's, studio's and consumer's will be making long term decision's about which format to back based on sale's this Christmas.

We've had 12 months with an uneasy stalemate, each format has been given a fair crack of the whip, but the point is quickly approaching when it makes sense to pick one HD format and work on challenging DVD long term.

The HD-DVD camp are fond of claiming this is a marathon, not a sprint, but the irony is HD-DVD needed a quick end to the format war, standalone prices are almost rock bottom and studio support is getting ever stronger for Blu-ray, frankly HD-DVD are out of ammunition.

That's how HD-DVD like to spin it but the reality is retailers, CE's, studio's and consumer's will be making long term decision's about which format to back based on sale's this Christmas.

We've had 12 months with an uneasy stalemate, each format has been given a fair crack of the whip, but the point is quickly approaching when it makes sense to pick one HD format and work on challenging DVD long term.

The HD-DVD camp are fond of claiming this is a marathon, not a sprint, but the irony is HD-DVD needed a quick end to the format war, standalone prices are almost rock bottom and studio support is getting ever stronger for Blu-ray, frankly HD-DVD are out of ammunition.

It does not pay to continue this discussion. The BRD fans say "we have won" ever month yet the war continues. Whatever I say will make no difference to you.

We agree to disagree

That's how HD-DVD like to spin it but the reality is retailers, CE's, studio's and consumer's will be making long term decision's about which format to back based on sale's this Christmas.

And this is not spin. You have direct knowledge that retailers, CEs, and studios will be making long term decisions based on Q4 performance?

You don't see UMD ranting anymore. Go back to when it came out and there was plenty of articles about it and its poor health.

It's like saying ,"You don't ever see anyone ranting against DIVX"

You're right, I wasn't clear on what I meant.

Were the rants against UMD by direct competitors? i.e. were DVD studios claiming "UMD is dead, we won" every month? Or were they so unconcerned about UMD supplanting DVD that there was no need to wage a PR battle to state the obvious?

And this is not spin. You have direct knowledge that retailers, CEs, and studios will be making long term decisions based on Q4 performance?... and with regards to Mr. Stewart's post above as well ...

You both express my feelings. I don't care who wins ... or if any side wins ... but, IMO, there does seem to be a complete arrogance in the BD camp. How many times have they pronounced the "war" over. It's just funny at some point.

They should all learn how to type the following three chars on their computers ... "IMO" .. and stop making these bold proclamations.

Credibility usually turns on whether you agree with the speaker, but here's a prediction from April: http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback184.html

Credibility usually turns on whether you agree with the speaker, but here's a prediction from April: http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback184.htmlYou see, this proclamation is one that I can live with. First of all, it's laiden with qualifiers. The author clearly states that this is not certain yet and that there are some possible uknowns. I don't remember, having just read it, if he used the phrase "IMO" ... but clearly it is written with some diffidence.

No bluster here. Just reporting and perhaps opinion.

And this is not spin. You have direct knowledge that retailers, CEs, and studios will be making long term decisions based on Q4 performance?

I would've thought that was just a common sense thing...after all, why wouldn't they?

You're right, I wasn't clear on what I meant.

Were the rants against UMD by direct competitors? i.e. were DVD studios claiming "UMD is dead, we won" every month? Or were they so unconcerned about UMD supplanting DVD that there was no need to wage a PR battle to state the obvious?

That's just it, UMD was never viewed as a direct competitor for DVD. With smaller space and far less ability to it for interactive features, it was a gimmick. Some studios jumped on the bandwagon to gain some extra short term cash, basically a money grab for small marketshare, and then dropped out when the entire thing crashed in terms of movie playback. Since then it's found a nice little niche with proper pricing but from all the studio folks I've talked to and the numerous industry rags I go through, it was never seriously thought to be a competitor to DVD. If it had any kind of competition it was from the memorystick and the ability to rip DVD movies to those and play them in there.

I would've thought that was just a common sense thing...after all, why wouldn't they?

For fear of making the wrong decision. You don't dump products that you are selling because they are in demand. That means you are making money. You dump products that aren't selling at all to make room for other more profitable products . . Retailing 101

Toshiba has every intention of making that goal of 1 million players by the end of the year. I believe that is world wide - but because the USA consumes 60% of all HDTV sales and we are talking about HDM - that means there will be approx. 600,000+ Toshiba HD DVD players in the USA. It may go as high as 750,000 depending on the pricing and giveaways.

So come 1/1/08 - you may see the movie sales % change - not in favor of HD DVD - but more towards a 50/50 split.

Retailers always cry. Now they are crying about having to have 3 of a movie instead of 2. They will get over it. As long as they continue to sell product.

I would've thought that was just a common sense thing...after all, why wouldn't they?

Because the volume of players sold and media moving may be too small to make long term plans? It's just my opinion, but when I see that BD media sales volume actually declined from Q1 to Q2, it makes me see BD as something less than a runaway train.

Yes, there is a percentage gap as reported by Nielsen VideoScan, but the actual number of units separating the two formats is quite small at this time from all we've been able to ascertain around here.

It may change significantly in the next 4 months, but there's been nothing in this format war that seems to be shaking the confidence of any of the major players. Now if the holiday season is absolutely disastrous for one format, that would be major, but there's nothing to make it seem to me that that will be the case.

That's just it, UMD was never viewed as a direct competitor for DVD. With smaller space and far less ability to it for interactive features, it was a gimmick. Some studios jumped on the bandwagon to gain some extra short term cash, basically a money grab for small marketshare, and then dropped out when the entire thing crashed in terms of movie playback. Since then it's found a nice little niche with proper pricing but from all the studio folks I've talked to and the numerous industry rags I go through, it was never seriously thought to be a competitor to DVD. If it had any kind of competition it was from the memorystick and the ability to rip DVD movies to those and play them in there.

Exactly my point. If HD DVD was dead or dying as some suggest, then it would not be a direct competitor to BR at this point, and therefore would not require the ongoing PR onslaught by the BDA. The constant declaration of victory, the demeanor of some of the BDA execs during interviews, and the crusading and campaigning that some BR fans exhibit on this forum, all point to signficant frustration by the BR side that HD DVD remains healthy. Which all goes back to the OPs question. If HD DVD's mortal enemy is making it obvious that HD DVD is still alive and well, then is there any real reason to look for third party input?

Credibility usually turns on whether you agree with the speaker, but here's a prediction from April: http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback184.html

You might want to google Rob Enderle.... he lacks credibility for other reasons. Usually he's busy attacking Apple (http://www.siliconvalley.com/ci_6167728?nclick_check=1 Apparently the iPhone isn't that great, news to me) and supporting Microsoft. I really don't think most people would be surprised that he's backing HD-DVD if you've read his work.

[Edit] So no one has to ask, I'm a Blu-ray owner. Since last Christmas, when the PS3 launched, Blu-ray discs have outsold HD-DVDs by 2:1. HD-DVD standalones have outsold Blu-rays by a narrowing margin.

And everyone here argues over how many of the millions of PS3s are used for watching movies - the only other really 'legitimate' debate that rages here is the relative importance of rentals. BD has the edge here, but there's no real proof of what that means.

To be honest, the rest is mostly fanboy bickering from both sides.

Credibility usually turns on whether you agree with the speaker, but here's a prediction from April: http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback184.html

Rumors of rumors; none of which has come to pass in the subsequent 1/4 year. The rumor of hoards of Chinese HD-DVD players pouring across the Yalu to be the salvation of HD-DVD has not been substantiated and is, in my opinion, pure wishful thinking and "smoke".

That's how HD-DVD like to spin it but the reality is retailers, CE's, studio's and consumer's will be making long term decision's about which format to back based on sale's this Christmas.

We've had 12 months with an uneasy stalemate, each format has been given a fair crack of the whip, but the point is quickly approaching when it makes sense to pick one HD format and work on challenging DVD long term.

The HD-DVD camp are fond of claiming this is a marathon, not a sprint, but the irony is HD-DVD needed a quick end to the format war, standalone prices are almost rock bottom and studio support is getting ever stronger for Blu-ray...
Agreed, it's time to end this madness. 2008 should be a new chapter in HDM. :)

Agreed, it's time to end this madness. 2008 should be a new chapter in HDM. :)

So the CED versus LD format war lasted 3 years . . . the VHS versus Betamax lasted over 10 years . . .

But the HD DVD versus BRD will only last 2 years?

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So the CED versus LD format war lasted 3 years . . . the VHS versus Betamax lasted over 10 years . . .

But the HD DVD versus BRD will only last 2 years?

?

I think yes.

It all comes down to what the retailers are going to do post Christmas. It is about space in the stores, space = $. If you devote as much space to a format that is only generating 25-30% of the dollars, what do you think?

So the CED versus LD format war lasted 3 years . . . the VHS versus Betamax lasted over 10 years . . .

But the HD DVD versus BRD will only last 2 years?

?
No Lee, since you seem to be one of the larger HD-DVD jealous, I'm sure this war will linger on in your mind for many decades to come. :rolleyes:

In 2006 HD-DVD had a sizable lead. So far this year BR has overtaken HD-DVD and is currently holding a nice 2:1 lead in software sales. Given all the data we have today, which indicates BR should have a good Q3 and Q4, it's not that unthinkable that BR could have a 80:20 lead by the end of the year. If so, it doesn't take a PhD. in economics to see this war could be over sometime in 2008 (for all practical purposes). I for one certainly hope so as I believe this war has now become counterproductive for mass adoption of optical HDM.

Given all the data we have today, which indicates BR should have a good Q3 and Q4, it's not that unthinkable that BR could have a 80:20 lead by the end of the year.

According to Grubert's last numbers, June sales were estimated at the following:

BD: 358k (67%)
HD: 176k (33%)

In order to be at 80% in June, BD would have had to have sold 704k discs, or 96.64% more discs than they sold. If you add BD May and June totals together, it wouldn't be 80% of HD's June sales.

For the first half of the year, it's 67/33, with little change in BD's favor since March.

The only way 80:20 is not unthinkable is if you assume that HD DVD basically shuts down operations. But if you consider that there are still many people buying HD DVD players, and if you look at last year's December numbers compared to earlier in '06, it would be conservative to estimate HD disc sales at 500k for the month of December. If HD sells 500k, then BD would need to sell 2 million discs in December to be at 80:20.

There's nothing in the trend data over the first half of the year to suggest we will be looking at numbers like that at the end of the year.

I think yes.

It all comes down to what the retailers are going to do post Christmas. It is about space in the stores, space = $. If you devote as much space to a format that is only generating 25-30% of the dollars, what do you think?

Compared to what? You mean there are not other products at retailers that sell less?

According to Grubert's last numbers, June sales were estimated at the following:

BD: 358k (67%)
HD: 176k (33%)

In order to be at 80% in June, BD would have had to have sold 704k discs, or 96.64% more discs than they sold. If you add BD May and June totals together, it wouldn't be 80% of HD's June sales.

For the first half of the year, it's 67/33, with little change in BD's favor since March.

The only way 80:20 is not unthinkable is if you assume that HD DVD basically shuts down operations. But if you consider that there are still many people buying HD DVD players, and if you look at last year's December numbers compared to earlier in '06, it would be conservative to estimate HD disc sales at 500k for the month of December. If HD sells 500k, then BD would need to sell 2 million discs in December to be at 80:20.

There's nothing in the trend data over the first half of the year to suggest we will be looking at numbers like that at the end of the year.
Agreed, but given the info we have regarding forecasting for Q3 & Q4, it would not be far fetched for BR to improve this lead during the second half of the year.

Maybe we won't see 80/20 by the end of the year, but if gets to say 75/25 or better on a weekly basis (which I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see), I still don't see this ridiculous war continuing much longer. I'll be amazed if the HD-DVD walls haven't basically collapsed by this time next year.

This is a serious question, I need to know for a debate I am having with a friend and I figured the people here would know better than anyone. Has anyone credible (i.e. not some message board guy) picked HD DVD to win the war recently? I see columns all the time picking Blu Ray, but have there been any picking HD DVD to win? Thanks. :) If you could keep the answer to yes or no with a link it would be great, that way we can keep out all the excuses and commentary that will leak their way in.
Yes, the immortal B. Greenway.

I just typed the following into Google: credible source hd-dvd versus blu-ray.

This is the first hit (from 06/26/06). http://www.hometheaterblog.com/hometheater/2006/06/bluray_vs_hddvd.html*

You can do your own search and find folks over at MS and Toshiba who think HD-DVD will win.

We all know the definition of credible. The problem is associating the word with a person. And this problem is not isolated to the HD-DVD/BD issue.

*Please note: I did not read the article and cannot confirm the credibility or validity of it. :)

The only credible evidence we'll really have that one side or the other (or both!) has won is when we can walk into a convenience store and purchase a disc with a red or blue case.

Relying on the opinions of others isn't a logical approach. If you're really interested in what's happening on the ground, you need to look at what's being reported by neutral observers (NPD, Nielsen) and by the movers and shakers who aren't directly involved (Wal-Mart, Target, Netflix, Blockbuster, Best Buy, Circuit City, etc.).

Right now, Nielsen's data shows Blu-ray ahead in software sales, but not really pushing its advantage, and that both formats are really struggling to make inroads into the public mainstream.

Of the major retailers, only Blockbuster has chosen sides at this time, and people on this forum are still pontificating about whether or not Blockbuster is an important factor.

At any rate, I'm sure we'll know a lot more in a few months as more retailers firm up their decision making. It'll be interesting to see if Blockbuster's decision provides enough of an excuse for other major North American retailers to follow suit on one side or the other, or whether the retailers will continue to stand pat for another Christmas season.

No Lee, since you seem to be one of the larger HD-DVD jealous, I'm sure this war will linger on in your mind for many decades to come. :rolleyes:

.

MOD: - Oh I see - I respond in a very subdued manner to this - and you delete my post because you may call it bickering - but this post stands.

?

I havent read anything from anyone credible predicting this on either side.
Lets just say that Blockbuster and Target dont seem to think HD DVD is doing great. Does HD DVD have anything close, cause at this point this post is one excuse after another and just won me an ARGUMENT big time. Thanks guys. :D


The question is not really answerable since there is no truly unbiased opinions in the world about formats. I think post #2 answered the OP and then the war took over.If post 2 is the best answer you got, I will show it to my HD DVD friend and see if he thinks its an answer. I already showed him MANY pro blu ray articles. It looks of spin to me, but this will prove to him that nobody could provide one link. I showed him Blockbuster, Target, Sales data, the studio support and recent comments from MS on HD DVD. I think I won the argument. :D Again thanks to all who answered, you helped more than you know.

Lets just say that Blockbuster and Target dont seem to think HD DVD is doing great.
I wouldn't be surprised to learn that BDA (aka Sony) is giving them free disks.

In this thread, it was claimed that HD DVD was more popular among AVSer's then Blu-ray. Someone asked for proof. I went to the trouble of searching out pages of polls to find this. I never said it was definitive. I never said nothng. Someone asked for proof and it was the closest I could find. FWIW, I would imagine that 278 votes is a reasonable sample of this forum, and 2:1 clearly indicates that HD DVD is favored. If you have a better example of some proof, then post it


http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=879709

In my poll there are 179 votes for Blu-ray, 175 for HD-DVD, and 61 who don't care. Looks like Blu-ray wins. ;)

Retailers always cry. Now they are crying about having to have 3 of a movie instead of 2. They will get over it. As long as they continue to sell product.They may have something to cry about if HD download services cut into the retail market. If I were them I would be hoping for an end to the war.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=879709

In my poll there are 179 votes for Blu-ray, 175 for HD-DVD, and 61 who don't care. Looks like Blu-ray wins. ;)

Statistically insignificant...unless of course this is an election with 100% reporting :p