This rumor might have teeth not sure. Some big Blu news tomorrow. Penton Man says everything should be on TARGET(big bold letters). He posted this on the blu ray site, and is pushing it here.

If this this is true, which it looks like it might, more trouble for HDDVD?

I don't know. I was just at Target today when I went to buy The Bourne Identity. Target didn't have it. But recently Target has been very good at keeping their selection updated, they started to carry more of the new recent releases on both formats and they continue to carry the big sellers.

Edit: Didn't realize it was past midnight, by "today" I meant yesterday

The more major retail chains that lean towards one format, the better.

If true, HDDVD is hosed in my opinion. I have a PS3 and HDDVD player, always wanted HDDVD to win, but it is what it is.

If not true, Penton Man's cred is hosed. He should never show his face again.

The more major retail chains that lean towards one format, the better.

Patently false. That's the dog wagging the tail. Retail establishments should seek to provide the product that an acceptable number of consumers want.

If true, HDDVD is hosed in my opinion. I have a PS3 and HDDVD player, always wanted HDDVD to win, but it is what it is.

If not true, Penton Man's cred is hosed. He should never show his face again.

How so? I've been in plenty of Targets and they've got the smallest HD section of any larger retailier. I think they're solid for buying DVD but they haven't really supported HDM with much floorspace at least here in the Seattle area.

Patently false. That's the dog wagging the tail. Retail establishments should seek to provide the product that an acceptable number of consumers want.

Well, I own both formats. I accept that one of them must fail before consumers stop worrying about buying into the wrong format. All my J6P friends think this is like VHS vs Beta, since that's what the media has portrayed it as. Many average consumers will sit on the sidelines until this war is over.

These past couple days I am feeling burned out by the format war, just kind of sick of it.

Anything at this point to get us closer to one format is great.

Until Target carries more HD product this does not mean too much. I really doubt at the current prices BD or HD DVD will last long with precious retail space.

But, I think the retailers are eager to end this war so to speed it up they may pull the plug on one side.

Also PaidGeek from SPHE has confirmed on another site that there will "be big news tomorrow".

So I'm not sure if its Target but another announcement is coming for Blu-ray only and it was not the Denon player. Something else is going to be announced.

Maybe the big news is the announcement of the Spiderman trilogy on BD. At least the first two were good.

Maybe the big news is the announcement of the Spiderman trilogy on BD. At least the first two were good.

lol! The first two were much better. The musical stuff in part 3 kind of threw me off.

I'll probably still get the BD though.

Wish we were getting a Fox announcement tommorrow but I doubt it. :(

Interesting spin of events if this rumor is indeed true. That would be a blow to HD-DVD, possibly more substantial than the Blockbuster announcement.

Regardless, we will find out soon enough.

Let me continue to beat the dead horse... ;)

If retailers are going to pick a side, do you think they would pick the side that has the least support from the major content providers and only one primary equipment manufacturer? I am talking majors. Let's not pull up some list with 3 majors and 20 some obscure companies that few have heard of unless you are into porn, anime, etc.

Denon chose Blu because do you think they are going to put out a $2k HD DVD player that is competing with low priced HD DVD player. I honestly thought that Denon would go for both sides at that price point, but they obvisously feel that it is not worth doing a dual format player when there really is only one HD DVD exclusive studio. HD DVDs best chance is coexistance, but if the retailers tell them to take a walk what are they (Universal) going to do? Do you think they are going to sit out of BD while the other majors resell their catalog again? The only color that really matters to any company is GREEN.

Maybe Targeaux is going to have a fire sale on 360 add-ons?

Another blow to HD DVD?

Why is it everytime good news comes to BD HD DVD always gets blown?

What is it with this obsession of blowing HD DVD?

Another blow to HD DVD?

Why is it everytime good news comes to BD HD DVD always gets blown?

What is it with this obsession of blowing HD DVD?

Good one ;)

kind of makes me wish I was HD DVD and the cheerleader from Heroes was doing the .... if you gotta go there are worst ways of going out

When sub $100 DVD players were available, Denon released the DVD-5910 for how much now? I can't see why they would not come out with an expensive HD DVD player despite Toshiba's cheapest costing under $300.

I don't mind Target deciding on a format but my only request is that they do so after having adequate information about the trends. Blu-ray offering a paltry 10 more titles and a 60/40 estimated split is simply not enough to standardize on one format IMO.

VHS was sold for years even when DVD was skyrocketing. I don't see why there needs to be such a decisive move in either direction.

Another blow to HD DVD?

Why is it everytime good news comes to BD HD DVD always gets blown?

What is it with this obsession of blowing HD DVD?

I think it's because the other side wanted BRD to suck so much.

I think it's because the other side wanted BRD to suck so much.
:D

Retail establishments should seek to provide the product that an acceptable number of consumers want.

In a free country, I would guess that it is up to the retail establishment's management to decide what they 'should' do. Shareholders can then decide whether they want that management. Customers can then decide whether they want to shop there. No?

I don't see how this would work well right away at least online. Target uses amazon.com for their DVD selections online. Its not like they can just tell amazon they don't want to sell HDDVD anymore.

Local walmart is blu only at this point. I was talking to the marketing guy for that area. He felt HD-DVD can't win. He has a BD player (via PS3) and no HDDVD player.

They carry the BDP-S300 and the PS3. They just got a dozen BDs as well. Although most were from the last few weeks. So if the 3 copys of each ever sell out I imagine they won't restock.


As far as HDDVD is not their in any form. The XBOX add-on never sold a single sale. In fact it was recalled do to low sales. But I think this is due to a commbnation of cheep standalones and they fact they don't have any HD-DVD media. Plus the xbox add on was stuffed in the regular xbox/gamecube os section.



As far as target. They can get rid of both format for all I care. The prices are only 5 bucks bellow best buy/ CC. And they've only got 18 discs on each side. Which if your lucky are updated once per month...

After seeing the amount of discs on each side, even Best buy CC disapoints me as they have about 1/4 of the over all discs. Plus they are way way to high on prices. If Best buy and such could get the prices down. The formats could take off.

Selling a player for $299/499 with 5 discs is great. But when the media averages 25-40 each how can they sell stuff. New dvds sell for $15.99 to $17.99. So this is almost a 1/3 of the cost...

Yes you can shop online. Many do, but a lot want the movie NOW. So they will shop in the store...

The major retailers make their Christmas season plans & major orders something on the order of four to six months ahead. What we are seeing now from the minor studios and here is positioning for the holiday season.

If Target goes Blu, it would most likely be more a symbolic than material change in the format war.

The impact on the overall balance of power would be hard to measure, but you have to wonder a bit about the thought processes of people making decisions. If they end up looking at the industry landscape and see both a major rental outfit (Blockbuster) and a major retailer (Target) throwing down the gauntlet and picking sides, one can only surmise that it's going to influence their future plans, especially if they're seeing internal sales data that corroborates those decisions.

Personally, I'd have thought Best Buy would be a more likely candidate to cave and declare Blu-ray exclusivity since they've apparently been leaning that direction since the start...

But hey, it's all conjecture until it happens. Let's not get too excited about it until and unless an official announcement is made.

Local walmart is blu only at this point. I was talking to the marketing guy for that area. He felt HD-DVD can't win. He has a BD player (via PS3) and no HDDVD player.

They carry the BDP-S300 and the PS3. They just got a dozen BDs as well. Although most were from the last few weeks. So if the 3 copys of each ever sell out I imagine they won't restock.


As far as HDDVD is not their in any form. The XBOX add-on never sold a single sale. In fact it was recalled do to low sales. But I think this is due to a commbnation of cheep standalones and they fact they don't have any HD-DVD media. Plus the xbox add on was stuffed in the regular xbox/gamecube os section.



As far as target. They can get rid of both format for all I care. The prices are only 5 bucks bellow best buy/ CC. And they've only got 18 discs on each side. Which if your lucky are updated once per month...

After seeing the amount of discs on each side, even Best buy CC disapoints me as they have about 1/4 of the over all discs. Plus they are way way to high on prices. If Best buy and such could get the prices down. The formats could take off.

Selling a player for $299/499 with 5 discs is great. But when the media averages 25-40 each how can they sell stuff. New dvds sell for $15.99 to $17.99. So this is almost a 1/3 of the cost...

Yes you can shop online. Many do, but a lot want the movie NOW. So they will shop in the store...

This sums up what I have seen at my local Wal-Mart as well. THe guys that work in the gaming section which is the same section as the SD-DVD's all say the same thing..Blu Ray is going to win..etc etc.. And point you to the Blu-Ray section and tell you the PS3 is the best player for it. I agree that the vast majority of people still see Blu-Ray and HD-DVD as too expensive not because of the players but the actual discs.. This is where Blockbuster will have a greater effect as time goes on, because people will see that it is as cheap to rent Blu-Ray's as regular SD-DVD's so switching get on their mind. Blockbuster's devotion to Blu-Ray will only help. It is obvious that once retailers start matching current SD-DVD prices or below the $20 range for new releases, it is all over for SD-DVD's... Target going blu-ray exclusive can only help the situation for Sony and hurt HD-DVD since this will be media worthy news as Blockbusters announcement was. I do agree that Target's in general have low supply's of HD DVD and BD discs, so them making a public announcement will fuel for mroe Blu-Ray releases and or a larger display section..

In a free country, I would guess that it is up to the retail establishment's management to decide what they 'should' do. Shareholders can then decide whether they want that management. Customers can then decide whether they want to shop there. No?

Yep, I think you're right. The couple of Target locations near me have minimal selection of Blu-ray and HD-DVD now, so I don't shop for movies there. If they go all Blu and expand their selection of Blu-ray and have timely stocking of new Blu-ray releases I'll start shopping there again.

Before we stopped buying DVDs, there were many Tuesdays when my wife would tell me to stop at Target and pick up a newly released DVD. They always had the new release on sale for a short period of time. If they start that practice with Blu-ray discs, I'll be buying more of my Blu-ray discs at B&M Target instead of on-line from Amazon which is my current practice.

On a somewhat related note.... if anyone listened to yesterday's HT Guys Podcast (http://www.htguys.com), there was an e-mail from a listener in Arkansas who said Walmart headquarters / stores were going to discontinue HD DVD and double the Blu-ray selection.

It *was* listener e-mal only, not an official word - but I thought it interesting. (A couple days ago, they had another listener e-mail who reported that the Star Wars trilogy was coming to Blu-ray.)

Even if none of these things turn out to be true, HD DVD needs to get something rolling or these types of rumours could do some damage.

*RUMOR*

Best Buy GOING HD DVD ONLY
CIRCUIT CITY GOING HD DVD ONLY
Ultimate Electronics going HD DVD only


See I can do it too....

I can't believe people are listening to the junior college drop outs that work at the Walmart entertainment section. WTF guys?

I can't believe people are listening to the junior college drop outs that work at the Walmart entertainment section....

Did they get as far as Junior College even?????

If Target goes Blu, it would most likely be more a symbolic than material change in the format war.

The impact on the overall balance of power would be hard to measure, but you have to wonder a bit about the thought processes of people making decisions. If they end up looking at the industry landscape and see both a major rental outfit (Blockbuster) and a major retailer (Target) throwing down the gauntlet and picking sides, one can only surmise that it's going to influence their future plans, especially if they're seeing internal sales data that corroborates those decisions.

Personally, I'd have thought Best Buy would be a more likely candidate to cave and declare Blu-ray exclusivity since they've apparently been leaning that direction since the start...

But hey, it's all conjecture until it happens. Let's not get too excited about it until and unless an official announcement is made.

I agree that it would probably be more important for symbolic reasons than for actual direct impact on software or hardward sales. But symbolic effects can be powerful. I also agree that celebration is premature until there is some actual announcement.

IF this happens, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Target and one or two other major retailers go exclusively Blu-ray. As mentioned above, I'm looking for BB to be the biggie.

Again IF this is true, things are looking really bad for HD-DVD. What amazes me is so many of the HD-DVD "fanboys" (and I hate that word) don't see see the walls collapsing around them. This Target announcement would be just another domino falling, no big deal by HD-DVD camp standards...

IF this happens, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Target and one or two other major retailers go exclusively Blu-ray. As mentioned above, I'm looking for BB to be the biggie.

Again IF this is true, things are looking really bad for HD-DVD. What amazes me is so many of the HD-DVD "fanboys" (and I hate that word) don't see see the walls collapsing around them. This Target announcement would be just another domino falling, no big deal by HD-DVD camp standards...

I think the term is "denial." And I really don't mean that in a flippant way. I have certainly exhibited denial in my own life. I imagine most of us have.

We already know what this announcement will be, and its not about Target going Blu-ray exclusive.

We already know what this announcement will be, and its not about Target going Blu-ray exclusive.

huh?

huh?

Same here.

Even if none of these things turn out to be true, HD DVD needs to get something rolling or these types of rumours could do some damage
They do nothing outside AVS, and this means nothing in the format desicion.

Heard this very same rumor for at least a month. Last time I heard it paidgeek was touting it along with the Blockbuster = so who knows?

As with the entire situation - only time will tell.

What's it about then?

BTW: I doubt you will see any B&M stores ever supporting one format over the other, until the near end of the war. '
Stores are still selling UMD.

Speaking of UMD, Target lost alot of money on supporting that format. I doubt they would support a Sony format exclusively again.

What amazes me is so many of the HD-DVD "fanboys" (and I hate that word) don't see see the walls collapsing around them. This Target announcement would be just another domino falling, no big deal by HD-DVD camp standards...Don't break out the champagne yet, I don't see a link...

This may be nothing more than Target getting it's own unique model number to sell - of a Sony BD Player. I am curious to see what is announced today....the corporate world is a strange brew sometimes :)

BD desperately needs a major PR event since sales are not too hot and growth is even lagging DVD and below itunes movie download. It is reaching the point where BDis looking a lot like UMD. Format for the PS3, hence the tremendous pressure on Sony to cut prices and move hardware....fast.

If this is true, just like the Blockbuster announcement, the headlines will do more damage than the actual act itself.

I just don’t get it, Blu-ray is such a rip-off…

BD desperately needs a major PR event since sales are not too hot and growth is even lagging DVD and below itunes movie download. It is reaching the point where BDis looking a lot like UMD. Format for the PS3, hence the tremendous pressure on Sony to cut prices and move hardware....fast.

Wow plaz if you describe BD that way I wonder how your description of HD-DVD must sound, since HD-DVD has substantially lower sales each week, and millions fewer capable players in people's homes. It must really be at death's door.

This may be nothing more than Target getting it's own unique model number to sell - of a Sony BD Player. I am curious to see what is announced today....the corporate world is a strange brew sometimes :)

BD desperately needs a major PR event since sales are not too hot and growth is even lagging DVD and below itunes movie download. It is reaching the point where BDis looking a lot like UMD. Format for the PS3, hence the tremendous pressure on Sony to cut prices and move hardware....fast.


Thanks man, that got my morning started off well. I was really dragging, and you gave me a great laugh.

Wow plaz if you describe BD that way I wonder how your description of HD-DVD must sound, since HD-DVD has substantially lower sales each week, and millions fewer capable players in people's homes. It must really be at death's door.
But somehow he often omits how HD-DVD is doing much worse than BR... :rolleyes:

Wow plaz if you describe BD that way I wonder how your description of HD-DVD must sound, since HD-DVD has substantially lower sales each week, and millions fewer capable players in people's homes. It must really be at death's door.

Knock, knock, knockin' on heaven's door~

They do nothing outside AVS,

Sadly I would have to agree there. It seems all HD DVD information is posted here and pretty much nowhere else. Its no surprise people who dont visit forums like AVS have never heard of HD DVD and that could prove to be the undoing of HD DVD.

But somehow he often omits how HD-DVD is doing much worse than BR... :rolleyes:

Stay on topic.

Not sure what is funny about Sony and another format tied to a video game system. The comparison between UMD and BD can be made for that reason alone. Sales are lacking on both sides. However, Sony and its track history of failed formats makes people compare them. So, in the eyes of some, UMD and BD seems like the same format model with new bells and whistles. Could be a good thing in the end, or it could hurt it more than people realize.

This may be nothing more than Target getting it's own unique model number to sell - of a Sony BD Player. I am curious to see what is announced today....the corporate world is a strange brew sometimes :)

BD desperately needs a major PR event since sales are not too hot and growth is even lagging DVD and below itunes movie download. It is reaching the point where BDis looking a lot like UMD. Format for the PS3, hence the tremendous pressure on Sony to cut prices and move hardware....fast.


Yes for the self proclaimed FUD crusader you do a great job of spreading it. The past few weeks have been great for Blu Ray including continually outselling HD DVD in software and many small studios siding with BD. If BD looks like UMD than HD DVD looks worse. The market share news from Toshiba was garbage as well. They release a minuscule amount of titles in Q1 then more much more in Q2 and they want to throw a party because they increased sale? Sounds like common sense to me but as they say common sense is not so common.

lol, is it just me, or does anyone else see the pattern here. Many of the more adamant BD fans in this thread have started going off topic and going into the whole

"well.....um.....yeah.... well, HD DVD suxorz more than us at least!!!!!"

come on guys, we're talking about a target rumor here, not whose format d!ck is bigger

Actually, HD DVD strategy has always been to coexist with DVD. It is the BD game plan to replace DVD with a wholly new format...so it's not a valid comparison. I'd say we need to compare HD DVD + DVD v. BD. Now that is the real game. HD DVD was never about replacing DVD, it was to augment it....so in that regard, BD is so far failing badly. If anything it has rejuvenated studios confidence in DVD (i.e. Fox, Disney, MGM) v. BD.

lol, is it just me, or does anyone else see the pattern here. Many of the more adamant BD fans in this thread have started going off topic and going into the whole

"well.....um.....yeah.... well, HD DVD suxorz more than us at least!!!!!"

Are you kidding me? Its plazman that trys to derail almost every pro BD topic with is fudaganda.

BD desperately needs a major PR event since sales are not too hot and growth is even lagging DVD and below itunes movie download. It is reaching the point where BDis looking a lot like UMD. Format for the PS3, hence the tremendous pressure on Sony to cut prices and move hardware....fast.

Is this the same Plaz of old?

As I suspected, most BD fans know what I am saying is true and the truth hurts :)

I am not spreading rumors here about corporate decions that have not been made yet....Also, Tosh does not release HD DVD titles, studios do. The number of titles on both formats are even. showing a Q upon Q sales decline is just plain bad. No excuses needed.

Both formats are performing poorly and the average person could care less. They love their DVD. We all keep looking for a spark to ignite the masses but they are in love with mediocrity.

Sadly I would have to agree there. It seems all HD DVD information is posted here and pretty much nowhere else. Its no surprise people who dont visit forums like AVS have never heard of HD DVD and that could prove to be the undoing of HD DVD.
I guess that sounded bad :D What I meant was that both format are still in the enthusiast market, not too much awareness from the general public.

Lately I've seen more of Michael Imperioli than the BD commercials.

Are you kidding me? Its plazman that trys to derail almost every pro BD topic with is fudaganda.


By derail, you mean? He doesnt come in and hi-five or join in on all the BD is the best chants? Giving a alternate view of a said topic or event is not derailing a topic. Just because a view or comment does not follow someone elses, does not make it more or less valid or worthy. Thats what the forums are for. Giving views and opinons on topics, not just being sheep. People can make their own choices. Along with their own comments. So often people are attacked if they give a seperate view.

Actually, HD DVD strategy has always been to coexist with DVD. It is the BD game plan to replace DVD with a wholly new format...so it's not a valid comparison. I'd say we need to compare HD DVD + DVD v. BD. Now that is the real game. HD DVD was never about replacing DVD, it was to augment it....so in that regard, BD is so far failing badly. If anything it has rejuvenated studios confidence in DVD (i.e. Fox, Disney, MGM) v. BD.

That is the craziest thing I've seen you post.

So if BD wins and DVD continues on, as DVD isn't going anywhere, you now consider it a victory for HD DVD if DVDs outsell BRDs?? You're nuts, man. Nuts.

Actually, HD DVD strategy has always been to coexist with DVD. It is the BD game plan to replace DVD with a wholly new format...so it's not a valid comparison. I'd say we need to compare HD DVD + DVD v. BD. Now that is the real game. HD DVD was never about replacing DVD, it was to augment it....so in that regard, BD is so far failing badly. If anything it has rejuvenated studios confidence in DVD (i.e. Fox, Disney, MGM) v. BD.

It's strange that I've only started hearing this "coexistence" line being used the last couple of days. Before, I think a lot of people - obviously mistakenly - thought that HD DVD winning would be it selling more discs than Blu-ray. Obviously that's all based in error though, and actually so long as DVDs are outselling Blu-ray... then HD DVD is beating Blu-ray.

Thanks Plaz, I get it now.

Are you kidding me? Its plazman that trys to derail almost every pro BD topic with is fudaganda.
:D :D

Sorry but the irony of a "fudaganda" in a rumor thread is funny.

Aside - wouldn't the correct made up term be fudagenda?

That is the craziest thing I've seen you post.

So if BD wins and DVD continues on, as DVD isn't going anywhere, you now consider it a victory for HD DVD if DVDs outsell BRDs?? You're nuts, man. Nuts.

I'm completely speechless at his posts on this thread, and he often leaves me scratching my head. He's outdoing himself now, that's for sure.

Actually, HD DVD strategy has always been to coexist with DVD. It is the BD game plan to replace DVD with a wholly new format...so it's not a valid comparison. I'd say we need to compare HD DVD + DVD v. BD. Now that is the real game. HD DVD was never about replacing DVD, it was to augment it....so in that regard, BD is so far failing badly. If anything it has rejuvenated studios confidence in DVD (i.e. Fox, Disney, MGM) v. BD.

Cool, i didn't know hddvd was planning on remaining niche in relation to dvd.
What a plan !!!!!
So it goes from hddvd is next generation ---> hddvd and bluray will coexists --> hddvd will win along with dvd.
Interesting :rolleyes:

As an aside, there is a target right down the street from me being built. I'll wait a couple of months till they are complete to see if they are bluray only !

By derail, you mean? He doesnt come in and hi-five or join in on all the BD is the best chants? Giving a alternate view of a said topic or event is not derailing a topic. Just because a view or comment does not follow someone elses, does not make it more or less valid or worthy. Thats what the forums are for. Giving views and opinons on topics, not just being sheep. People can make their own choices. Along with their own comments. So often people are attacked if they give a seperate view.


This quote

"BD desperately needs a major PR event since sales are not too hot and growth is even lagging DVD and below itunes movie download. It is reaching the point where BDis looking a lot like UMD. Format for the PS3, hence the tremendous pressure on Sony to cut prices and move hardware....fast."

Is intended to make the thread go off topic and in no way furthers the course of conversation. It was stated to derail what could be seen as pro BD news to bad BD news.

How about you guys stop going off topic? If what he is saying is truly crazy then IGNORE IT and drive on. Geez....

How so? I've been in plenty of Targets and they've got the smallest HD section of any larger retailier. I think they're solid for buying DVD but they haven't really supported HDM with much floorspace at least here in the Seattle area.


Compared to whom?

Since DVD and HD DVD share the same production technologies and can come off the same lines, once it is shown BD cannot replace DVD, economically it will make sense to have HD DVD. There will be 2 formats, one HD and one SD. Both coming off the same factory....much easier, more profitable, more seamless for consumers in the end.

It's amazing to me that people believe that BD can replace DVD in the next 3 years or so...IMO it ain't gonna happen. Both HD DVD and BD look like they will be niche products for the next 3 years or so....beyond that it would be hard to predict. JMHO.

Folks, what you really need to scratch your heads about is the near zero growth of HD formats for all of 2007....HD DVD had some growth from Q1 to Q2, but BD went in reverse gear on ALL fronts! Is that supposed to be a positive, is that supposed to be comforting?

It is time to face up to facts....things can change in future, but now, both formats are very very very very much niche. Based on current trends there is no hope for BD or HD DVD to replace DVD....they should, but they aren't . It's not my fault that it is what it is.....

*RUMOR*

Best Buy GOING HD DVD ONLY
CIRCUIT CITY GOING HD DVD ONLY
Ultimate Electronics going HD DVD only


See I can do it too....

Value Electronics going HD DVD only!!

;)

How about you guys stop going off topic? If what he is saying is truly crazy then IGNORE IT and drive on. Geez....

Eh, some comments are just so hard to avoid not responding to. We'll get a new thread the second an official announcement is made anyway.

If this is true, just like the Blockbuster announcement, the headlines will do more damage than the actual act itself.

I just don’t get it, Blu-ray is such a rip-off…

Your sig is hilarious. The Disney Blu-ray discs and their 24-bit PCM audio tracks are definitely superior to the HD DVD releases.

That is the craziest thing I've seen you post.

So if BD wins and DVD continues on, as DVD isn't going anywhere, you now consider it a victory for HD DVD if DVDs outsell BRDs?? You're nuts, man. Nuts.

Not so much really. HD-DVD can survive with DVD with the combo disk. BD would have to outright beat both HD-DVD and DVD to become the norm. If HD-DVD were to win the HD media war. The next step would be to slowly fade out normal DVDs and go with the combo disks. One disk, one package, one production line. Nobody has to replace current dvd players, or buy a new HD player right away. This ,of course, would take more than a year or two to really come to pass. If BD wins the HD media war. The next step would to take on DVD directly. Two separate disks, 2 packages, 2 separate production lines. This is the long term problem BD would have. Sony wants to replace DVD all together. Thats a big task by itself. HD-DVD does not need to replace DVD, it can coexist. Of course Sony could be researching a combo disk of their own right now.

Since DVD and HD DVD share the same production technologies and can come off the same lines, once it is shown BD cannot replace DVD, economically it will make sense to have HD DVD. There will be 2 formats, one HD and one SD. Both coming off the same factory....much easier, more profitable, more seamless for consumers in the end.

Well it took seven years for DVD to out rent VHS and I'm sure they didn't use the same production lines there.

How long do you give Blu-ray then? Seven years, six years?

Since DVD and HD DVD share the same production technologies and can come off the same lines, once it is shown BD cannot replace DVD, economically it will make sense to have HD DVD. There will be 2 formats, one HD and one SD. Both coming off the same factory....much easier, more profitable, more seamless for consumers in the end.

It's not like you can just replicate an HD DVD at any DVD replication house, you know. They still need to upgrade their machinery...

The HD DVD talking point machine is certainly working overtime in this thread.

The HD DVD talking point machine is certainly working overtime in this thread.


Yep, with "coexistence" being the new word.

Neither Blu-ray nor HD-DVD expected DVD to go away for years, to suggest one had a co-existence strategy and the other didn't is wrong.

I'd say we need to compare HD DVD + DVD v. BD. Now that is the real game.

NICE :rolleyes:

Yes for the self proclaimed FUD crusader you do a great job of spreading it. The past few weeks have been great for Blu Ray including continually outselling HD DVD in software and many small studios siding with BD. If BD looks like UMD than HD DVD looks worse.


So far though BD is looking like UMD or worse. No matter what HD DVD does, BD does have to start doing better. In this case much better because the absurd amount of promotion and subsidy involved, and the ghost of UMD telling studios and retailers to give it a pass if it doesn't thrive.

With the disparaging remarks bandied about here of HD DVDs imminent failure, you would think already that sales of individual BD titles would be more respectable, and BD studios would be rolling out product like Universal to deliver a "killing blow." However, I there is ample evidence that BD partners are being conservative less because of HD DVD's prowess, and more because of BDs lackluster sales.

You can't buy a cup of coffee any more with six cents than you can with four. ;)

This rumor might have teeth not sure. Some big Blu news tomorrow. Penton Man says everything should be on TARGET(big bold letters). He posted this on the blu ray site, and is pushing it here.

If this this is true, which it looks like it might, more trouble for HDDVD?

there is a target around here right off a major highway in a very populated area in a fairly well-to-do area. the shoprite across the street for example is a top-3 revenue generator in the state.

their bluray/hd-dvd "section" is like a blip on the radar... ONE vertical BLURAY/HDDVD panel (about the width of 2 discs, the length of 5-6) with a few colums of blu/hd discs next to them.

there are 10x more kids PC games on the shelf. If there were a sale, you migth see more copies of SOPRANOS DVD SEASON 6 on shelves than the entire Bluray or HDDVD offerings.

if this is any indication (and i do believe it is) then Bluray/HDDVD are mostly IRRELEVANT to retailers.

lets not fool ourselves

This may be nothing more than Target getting it's own unique model number to sell - of a Sony BD Player. I am curious to see what is announced today....the corporate world is a strange brew sometimes :)

BD desperately needs a major PR event since sales are not too hot and growth is even lagging DVD and below itunes movie download. It is reaching the point where BDis looking a lot like UMD. Format for the PS3, hence the tremendous pressure on Sony to cut prices and move hardware....fast.

:eek:


, hence the tremendous pressure on Sony to cut prices and move hardware....fast.

Ahemmm... See this thread to learn about price cuts and desperate pressure to move hardware...fast.

" HD A2s now at $199 (shipping included: no mistake). Time to jump in!" http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=879457


Why is it that your rather well balanced ("I prefer HD-DVD for the following reasons...") views changed to a much more aggressive style ("I can't believe Blu-Ray is winning. How can this be? How can my beloved format loose against such a DRM contaminated, greedy and hard-to-manufacture mess of a format???") lately...I liked the good old "in touch with reality" plazman better...

Cool, i didn't know hddvd was planning on remaining niche in relation to dvd.

lol

Value Electronics going HD DVD only!!

LOL !!!

So far though BD is looking like UMD or worse. No matter what HD DVD does, BD does have to start doing better. In this case much better because the absurd amount of promotion and subsidy involved, and the ghost of UMD telling studios and retailers to give it a pass if it doesn't thrive.

With the disparaging remarks bandied about here of HD DVDs imminent failure, you would think already that sales of individual BD titles would be more respectable, and BD studios would be rolling out product like Universal to deliver a "killing blow." However, I there is ample evidence that BD partners are being conservative less because of HD DVD's prowess, and more because of BDs lackluster sales.

You can't buy a cup of coffee any more with six cents than you can with four. ;)


With all these companies fully supporting Blu-Ray publicly and all but one of the major studio's supporting it. As well as BD having the software lead for many months against HD DVD.. How in the world can you conclude that Blu-Ray is looking anything like UMD or worse?

:eek:



Ahemmm... See this thread to learn about price cuts and desperate pressure to move hardware...fast.

" HD A2s now at $199 (shipping included: no mistake). Time to jump in!" http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=879457


Why is it that your rather well balanced ("I prefer HD-DVD for the following reasons...") views changed to a much more aggressive style ("I can't believe Blu-Ray is winning. How can this be? How can my beloved format loose against such a DRM contaminated, greedy and hard-to-manufacture mess of a format???") lately...I liked the good old "in touch with reality" plazman better...


Now they are stretching to UMD for some sort of an attack..

UMD doesn't even compare. You've got BD stand alones out selling HD DVD stand alones if you are to believe the HD DVD PRG.

While PS3 is currently the primary way to play, you've got manufacturers making stand alones... and where I am @ they can't keep the BD standalones in stock.

I though Target were in the red. At last financially...

If retailers start choosing Blu-ray, it slows the advancement of high definition by a few years. $400 - $500 is just too much for the average family, and without HD DVD to push it, there is not much incentive for them to lower prices.

HD DVD is about ready for mass market pricing today, Blu-ray is a few years away.

Since DVD and HD DVD share the same production technologies and can come off the same lines, once it is shown BD cannot replace DVD, economically it will make sense to have HD DVD.

Hah! Now we get some more concrete arguments. However,
1) The PS3 games will always provide sufficient volume to give BD the scale and learning effects that it needs to drive costs down.
2) Given that, the costs of disc production is really a non-factor compared to, say, shelf-space or SKU-driven costs.

The only way how this argument makes sense is if HD DVD starts releasing combo discs at DVD prices: you buy a DVD and get the HD DVD for free. Then there is no issue of SKUs and no issues of shelf-space. But I don't think you want to suggest that? Or maybe you actually were suggesting that? It is true co-existence!

Yep, with "coexistence" being the new word.

I wonder what marketing whiz at the HD DVD PRG writes this material.

It's not like you can just replicate an HD DVD at any DVD replication house, you know. They still need to upgrade their machinery...

Which is a fraction of the cost of putting in a new BD line....

I though Target were in the red. At last financially...

Nearly $3 billion net income ...

With all these companies fully supporting Blu-Ray publicly and all but one of the major studio's supporting it. As well as BD having the software lead for many months against HD DVD.. How in the world can you conclude that Blu-Ray is looking anything like UMD or worse?
Maybe because BD disc sales are so anemic?

Which is a fraction of the cost of putting in a new BD line....


I also heard a rumor that the red ink is cheaper than the blue one.

So far though BD is looking like UMD or worse. No matter what HD DVD does, BD does have to start doing better. In this case much better because the absurd amount of promotion and subsidy involved, and the ghost of UMD telling studios and retailers to give it a pass if it doesn't thrive.Regardless of whether we always like the decisions the studios and retailers make or not one thing your not going to convince me of is that they are completely moronic. UMD or its ghost will not be the slightest factor in the decisions of studios and retailers when figuring out how they want to proceed with Blu-ray.

Which is a fraction of the cost of putting in a new BD line....

That cost is only for replication houses to incur. Small studios only care what the cost is to them.

Blu-ray replication vs HD DVD replication costs revealed (http://wesleytech.com/blu-ray-vs-hd-dvd-replication-costs-revealed/111/)

Blu-ray vs HD DVD replication costs analyzed again (http://wesleytech.com/blu-ray-vs-hd-dvd-replication-costs-analyzed-again/113/)

Which is a fraction of the cost of putting in a new BD line....

What are the costs these days? We knew them a year ago when it was a huge amount more, but these things are continually being refined. Anyone?

I just find it so ironic how many hard core HD DVD fans are calling Blu Ray says "slow, anemic, and worse than UMD"

Patently false. That's the dog wagging the tail. Retail establishments should seek to provide the product that an acceptable number of consumers want.

Exactly right. the suggestion is to shut out roughly 40% of the market for high def. Ridiculous.

Also PaidGeek from SPHE has confirmed on another site that there will "be big news tomorrow".

So I'm not sure if its Target but another announcement is coming for Blu-ray only and it was not the Denon player. Something else is going to be announced.

Big news? Sony Pictures announcing titles in HD DVD?

I just find it so ironic how many hard core HD DVD fans are calling Blu Ray says "slow, anemic, and worse than UMD"

They all seem to be singing from the same page.

Exactly right. the suggestion is to shut out roughly 40% of the market for high def. Ridiculous.

Not if they think that supporting 1 format and helping end the format war will mean more money tomorrow.

With all these companies fully supporting Blu-Ray publicly and all but one of the major studio's supporting it. As well as BD having the software lead for many months against HD DVD.. How in the world can you conclude that Blu-Ray is looking anything like UMD or worse?


Because all the kings horses and all the kings men aren't equaling respectable sales, or anything approaching "critical mass".

You also can't tell me that the studios supporting BD are putting their shoulders into it, and getting product out there. To me that says that it's not the split between HD DVD and BD that they care about, but sales of BD alone.

People predicted this before the format war began. Two formats would equal slow consumer adoption rate. And this is exactly what we are seeing. All things considered however, Blu-ray is actually looking pretty damn good in my opinion.

Which is a fraction of the cost of putting in a new BD line....

Is that why HD-DVD discs cost the same/more than Blu-Ray discs

They all seem to be singing from the same page.
No taste for reality I see. :rolleyes:

I have to admit that *if* Target were to go exclusive, it has widely perceived value among the average Joe. That still doesn't mean J6P is gonna jump into the HD war anytime soon, since it's so dang pricey. But perception is still reality, and for Target to go BD exclusive is arguably the largest exclusivity announcement outside of the studios'.

It's amazing to me how much money Tosh stands to lose if HD DVD withers on the vine, yet their efforts to buy off exclusivity with various B&Ms is abyssmally poor. HW pricing is important...but they don't seem to get the fact that subsidies of B&Ms, heck maybe even subsidies to lower combo costs, would have made a world of difference.

People can buy cheap players, but what good does it do them if they can't afford the movies? I wouldn't be surprised in the least if J6P buys a cheap HD DVD player as a great upconverter -- but what does that do for the format?

I just find it so ironic how many hard core HD DVD fans are calling Blu Ray says "slow, anemic, and worse than UMD"


No, Blu Ray is DRM laden, expensive, and lacks a finished standard, that's what most hard core HD DVD fans say. Truth hurts.

I'd say a rumor thread is about ripe for a lock and be sent back to Narnia. Open it back up *if* any rumor actually comes true...

I wonder if the HD DVD PRG sends out an e-mail saying something like, "Attention: there's a thread at AVS where we need reinforcements right away!"

Truth hurts.Avoid the truth much? :p

Mods, please go through and delete half of this OT thread.

Back to Target:

I'm doubtful that Target is going Blu exclusive, but who knows. One thing is pretty certain: Target will continue to sell HD DVD media. As I've said before, media gets people in the store and will generate more traffic which will lead to more sales. Target's online store uses Amazon.com for their media so it will always be there as well.

I recently was in the Target store connected to their world headquarters and their HDM selection for both sides sucked. Target is not a big player in the CE world either, at least not for HD players at this point. BB and CC are the biggies.

With all these companies fully supporting Blu-Ray publicly and all but one of the major studio's supporting it. As well as BD having the software lead for many months against HD DVD.. How in the world can you conclude that Blu-Ray is looking anything like UMD or worse?

Umm, because BR is less than 1/2 of 1% of the market? Granted HD DVD is less so, but then again Toshiba and clan don't have a history of failed formats, while Sony certainly does (some more recent, ehem, UMD, than others).

Public support of BR (or HD DVD) by Retailers and Studios will be there right up until it's not (just like UMD = day 927 "Yes, we carry and support UMD!"; day 928 "We're phasing out our UMD stock."). Don't get me wrong HAVING Retailer and Studio support is far, far better than NOT HAVING it, but don't paint Retailer support as the be-all, end-all because it's not. If consumers don't spend money in this segment (for either BR or HD DVD) relative to SD DVD or if consumers spend money on the competing format, HD DVD, Retailers will shift their focus and follow the money.

Is that why HD-DVD discs cost the same/more than Blu-Ray discs

Something that is truly puzzling to me, and anyone objective has to admit that either HD DVD is not really as cheap to produce as originally reported, or the HD DVD group (read: Tosh) is doing a horrible job of subsidizing the movies in order to sell the format.

This whole scenario has been a brilliant play by MSFT IMHO. Simply brilliant. If HD DVD wins, then they picked the right side from basically the beginning and they stand to make a killing on codec licensing. Plus they now have a foothold into a new arm of media.

If HD DVD loses, what do they stand to lose? An add-on for the Xbox? An unused HD DVD Promotional 18-wheeler? They caused insane bleeding for Sony (billions), they gained market share in the gaming industry, while also creating a foothold for a limited download model.

Truly MSFT has benefited the most from HD DVD vs. BD. And yet some people still don't respect them for possessing that American spirit of competition.

No, Blu Ray is DRM laden, expensive, and lacks a finished standard, that's what most hard core HD DVD fans say. Truth hurts.

I'd say a rumor thread is about ripe for a lock and be sent back to Narnia. Open it back up *if* any rumor actually comes true...

DRM has not yet effected me yet so Im not sure why it matters. It just seems like something that HD DVD fans want to complain about because there is little else to complain about. Of course maximum disc space and bandwidth dont matter, but if i want to copy my $20 movie to a $25 disc it might be a problem. :rolleyes:

Funny you mention its expensiveness when on average the discs are $5 cheaper on BD. After so many discs I will have saved the difference in price on player price.

Finished standard? My Blu Ray player works fine with all my discs. They may choose to add features like DVD with upsampling and playing WMV files.

And of course anyone anti BD would love to have this good news for BD topic locked.

When all else fails, there's always the "OT" line.

And of course anyone anti BD would love to have this good news for BD topic locked.

Indeed.

It's strange that I've only started hearing this "coexistence" line being used the last couple of days. Before, I think a lot of people - obviously mistakenly - thought that HD DVD winning would be it selling more discs than Blu-ray. Obviously that's all based in error though, and actually so long as DVDs are outselling Blu-ray... then HD DVD is beating Blu-ray.

Thanks Plaz, I get it now.

It seems to me that the Blu-ray fanboys back up their POV with things like studio support, sales data and Blockbuster announcements, while the HD-DVD fanboys come up with specualtive come-from-behind scenarios.

I also heard a rumor that the red ink is cheaper than the blue one.

hehe, Red ink is definitely cheaper than Black ink too :)

Which is a fraction of the cost of putting in a new BD line....
Yes, yes.... but what fraction?

1/10th is a fraction...but so is 9/10ths.

It costs me a "fraction" of the cost to buy a used movie as it does to buy a new one, but you know what? I don't buy used movies.

Not if they think that supporting 1 format and helping end the format war will mean more money tomorrow.

This is your Business Plan. You're coming dangerously close to penning a new economic proverb not seen since the infamous

"How do I plan to turn a profit on this product that sells below cost? Volume!"

What you posit makes no sense at all.

1. Target is a retail store whose speciality is selling product not ending wars.
2. You don't give up potential sales to a third of the market in the hopes that there may be gold at the end of the rainbow.
3. HD DVD is priced more closely to what the typical Target customer wants to pay.

If Target stops carrying HD DVD ...we'd just buy our movies from the local BB, CC or Wally Mart not to mention online. "Can't stop the signal"

Something that is truly puzzling to me, and anyone objective has to admit that either HD DVD is not really as cheap to produce as originally reported, or the HD DVD group (read: Tosh) is doing a horrible job of subsidizing the movies in order to sell the format.

This whole scenario has been a brilliant play by MSFT IMHO. Simply brilliant. If HD DVD wins, then they picked the right side from basically the beginning and they stand to make a killing on codec licensing. Plus they now have a foothold into a new arm of media.

If HD DVD loses, what do they stand to lose? An add-on for the Xbox? An unused HD DVD Promotional 18-wheeler? They caused insane bleeding for Sony (billions), they gained market share in the gaming industry, while also creating a foothold for a limited download model.

Truly MSFT has benefited the most from HD DVD vs. BD. And yet some people still don't respect them for possessing that American spirit of competition.

The only true loser in this whole fiasco in the end is going to be Toshiba. They sunk a lot of money into this and at this point the only hope is to try and minimize the loss.

I wonder if the HD DVD PRG sends out an e-mail saying something like, "Attention: there's a thread at AVS where we need reinforcements right away!"

I wonder if the BDA sends out an email to all the paid Hydras saying something like "Attention: Start a *RUMOR* Large Retail goes blu thread on AVS!"

UMD was directly tied to a game system. Just like PS3. Hence the comparison. Nuff said.

On topic.

If Target were to go exclusive. I see it only helps to show off BD and hide HD DVD. Not necessarily sell BD. Both HD DVD and BD have to deal with people actually having the HDTVs to view their products. This fact alone makes the sale of stand alones players and media slow. Its going to take alot to replace DVD players in homes. May not happen for years.

Something that is truly puzzling to me, and anyone objective has to admit that either HD DVD is not really as cheap to produce as originally reported, or the HD DVD group (read: Tosh) is doing a horrible job of subsidizing the movies in order to sell the format.
I am puzzled by this too.

They are selling the players at little or no (-ive?) profit. But the discs seem to not be subsidized. Any good reason?

Or are they actually subsidized already and thus, is the whole theory of hd-dvd being cheap to manufacture untrue?

Truly MSFT has benefited the most from HD DVD vs. BD. And yet some people still don't respect them for possessing that American spirit of competition.What they have done is brilliant, even casting Sony as the bad guy. I really am impressed. And while I'm not fond of tactics like these I'm aware that any of these companies would do the same thing, and in fact certainly are doing the same types of things on every level of business competition. I actually like MS, the problem is I care about the technology involved in this war. And this puts me firmly in the Blu-ray camp.

I have certainly exhibited denial in my own life. I imagine most of us have.


not me..............................







ted

So far though BD is looking like UMD or worse. No matter what HD DVD does, BD does have to start doing better. In this case much better because the absurd amount of promotion and subsidy involved, and the ghost of UMD telling studios and retailers to give it a pass if it doesn't thrive.

With the disparaging remarks bandied about here of HD DVDs imminent failure, you would think already that sales of individual BD titles would be more respectable, and BD studios would be rolling out product like Universal to deliver a "killing blow." However, I there is ample evidence that BD partners are being conservative less because of HD DVD's prowess, and more because of BDs lackluster sales.

You can't buy a cup of coffee any more with six cents than you can with four. ;)

I don't understand why people compare bluray to UMD. Was UMD not intended soley for the playstation portable ? Bluray is intended for everyone to use as their hd movie player. Many CE's manufacture bluray players. Only one manufactures for hddvd, with the exception of that horrible 360 add-on.

As for your "killing blow", you are right. Bluray is not doing enough to take an even more commanding lead. Although i would rather them not choose universals quantity over quality motto. Despite fox missing in action, disney barely releasing movies and a couple of titles missing from warner, bluray is still in the lead. Does this not bother you ? Whats going to happen when fox returns and disney releases its bigger hits ?

UMD was directly tied to a game system. Just like PS3. Hence the comparison. Nuff said.


Not nuff said and wrong. UMD was directly tied to the PSP. Bluray is not tied to the ps3 but much of its sales success is attributed to the ps3. Thats the difference. There wasn't stand alone UMD players available but there are more stand alone bd players than hddvd players.
Now, Nuff said :D

I am puzzled by this too.

They are selling the players at little or no (-ive?) profit. But the discs seem to not be subsidized. Any good reason?

Or are they actually subsidized already and thus, is the whole theory of hd-dvd being cheap to manufacture untrue?

hd-dvd makes profit on the discs to make up for loss on the players? cut the prices on the discs, and you narrow your margin even further?

BDA sponsors a lot of movie sale promotions, perhaps their model is to break even to slight loss on players, offset by a smaller than hd-dvd profit on discs?

What they have done is brilliant, even casting Sony as the bad guy. I really am impressed. And while I'm not fond of tactics like these I'm aware that any of these companies would do the same thing, and in fact certainly are doing the same types of things on every level of business competition. I actually like MS, the problem is I care about the technology involved in this war. And this puts me firmly in the Blu-ray camp.

Sorry, but Sony cast themselves as the bad guy in the ramp up and delivery of the PS3. I don't know if you followed their launch and the PR before it, but Sony spokespeople made asses of themselves when hyping their game system. This rubbed everyone save the die hard Sony Fanboys the wrong way. When a mediocre game system is being hyped up to the point of the Sont president saying PS3 will replace the computer it's hard for the general public in the know not to get fed up.

Any point of view can be justified when one is biased enough. Remove the Bias and the justification collapses.

Lets shed ourselves of this mind control. Emotion begone!

This is your Business Plan. You're coming dangerously close to penning a new economic proverb not seen since the infamous

"How do I plan to turn a profit on this product that sells below cost? Volume!"

What you posit makes no sense at all.

1. Target is a retail store whose speciality is selling product not ending wars.
2. You don't give up potential sales to a third of the market in the hopes that there may be gold at the end of the rainbow.
3. HD DVD is priced more closely to what the typical Target customer wants to pay.

If Target stops carrying HD DVD ...we'd just buy our movies from the local BB, CC or Wally Mart not to mention online. "Can't stop the signal"
Sorry, but I'm going to have to cry foul on this.

Response to 1:
Target is a retail store just like any other, and has to make their purchasing and inventory decisions like any floor-space conscious retailer. I'm sure most of us can agree that high definition discs are not impressing most box store retailers with their volume at this time.

Response to 2:
You do when that third of the market is losing you money due to taking up precious floor space for better performing product. Sometimes you leave the line in the water, but sometimes you just cut bait and try something else.

Response to 3:
Target wants to make money, and only a blind man would fail to notice that the price of Blu-ray and HD DVD players has been converging over the past six months. Since their margin on Blu-ray players seems undoubtedly higher than on HD DVD players (well, we can't confirm this without insider confirmation, but how much would you like to bet? :) ), and they're probably seeing the same sales trends everyone else seems to be, which horse do you think they'll back, if in fact they do pull the trigger and drop a format?

Your points would make sense if Target and other retailers were making substantial amounts of money on high definition players and media, but the volume right now is so low that it's more likely that these products are costing them money by their mere presence in the store. In that scenario, none of your points work, and in fact completely invert.

Not nuff said and wrong. UMD was directly tied to the PSP. Bluray is not tied to the ps3 but much of its sales success is attributed to the ps3. Thats the difference. Now, Nuff said :D

How am I wrong? BD is tied to PS3. So my statement is correct. It didnt need a stand alone player. It already had them in the form of the PSP. However, it was still tied in with a game system.

It's strange that I've only started hearing this "coexistence" line being used the last couple of days

It has been stated MANY times that HD DVD is "evolutionary", while Blu-ray is "revolutionary". Many things that HD DVD has done, from day one, have clearly shown that they expect the process of introducing HD DVD to be gradual and that clearly co-existence is part of the plan. Things such as incorporating an excellent SD DVD up-converter in their G1 players, things like combo discs, having affordable players from day one, the ease of adding HD DVD to existing DVD lines, etc. There has ABSOLUTELY been a different paradigm to the HD DVD implementation when compared to Blu-ray, one that recognizes that it can sit alongside DVD for a long time. and exist at the same time in people's houses who might have HD DVD in their main room, but SD DVD in the cars and smaller rooms. Whether or not it is promotoed this way, or whether this philosophy is an asset or a liability is another matter. But Plazman is more rirght about this than wrong, and everyone jumping on him could stand to think a bit about this and see clearly how these two formats differ in this regard. However, IMO, what can be questioned is the interpretation that HD DVD plus SD DVD is battling Blu-ray, rather than HD DVD alone.

not me..............................







ted


:D

The only true loser in this whole fiasco in the end is going to be Toshiba. They sunk a lot of money into this and at this point the only hope is to try and minimize the loss.

Sony stands to lose billions as well, and not just on the HD media front, also on the gaming console front. They have sacrificed a very lucrative industry (gaming) for BD. The blow to Tosh would at the least be equally as bad, possibly more if you consider their market cap versus Sony's.

It has been stated MANY times that HD DVD is "evolutionary", while Blu-ray is "revolutionary". What exactly does that mean to YOU? Many things that HD DVD has done, from day one, have clearly shown that they expect the process of introducing HD DVD to be gradual and that clearly co-existence is part of the plan. Things such as incorporating an excellent SD DVD up-converter in their G1 players, things like combo discs, having affordable players from day one, the ease of adding HD DVD to existing DVD lines, etc. There has ABSOLUTELY been a different paradigm to the HD DVD implementation when compared to Blu-ray, one that recognizes that it can sit alongside DVD for a long time. and exist at the same time in people's houses who might have HD DVD in their main room, but SD DVD in the cars and smaller rooms. Whether or not it is promotoed this way, or whether this philosophy is an asset or a liability is another matter. But Plazman is more rirght about this than wrong, and everyone jumping on him could stand to think a bit about this and see clearly how these two formats differ in this regard. However, IMO, what can be questioned is the interpretation that HD DVD plus SD DVD is battling Blu-ray, rather than HD DVD alone.

And yet at the same time it seems to have absolutely nothing to due with Target and is just another talking point that is completely OT in this thread.

Funny thing is that in the BD area he had an on-topic post and it was this:

AFAIK, Pentonman is NOT an insider. He posts stuff from the web and what he gets as PM from Paidgeek (who is an insider).

Also, Target sells more HD DVD players than BD standalones now, and are one of the largest retailers for the xbox add on. However, they could have an arrangement with Sony for instore end caps playing BD - but that is no different than what the current status at Best Buy is....Also, I haven't seen players other than the PS3 or xbox drive being sold at any Target B&M. I guess we will have to wait for the announcement from Target....

So, who else is waiting for the Target announcement?

I love when I'm told I'm being told I'm a bitter HD DVD spporter for pointing out that BD is doing poorly, in a "rumor thread" designed to elicit gloating posts about a "domino-effect" burying HD DVD and catapulting BD.

Who needs the reality check here? BD could have all of HD DVD's sales in hardware and software and still be considered to be doing poorly.

I love when I'm told I'm being told I'm a bitter HD DVD spporter for pointing out that BD is doing poorly, in a "rumor thread" designed to elicit gloating posts about a "domino-effect" burying HD DVD and catapulting BD.

Who needs the reality check here? BD could have all of HD DVD's sales in hardware and software and still be considered to be doing poorly.

No need to get bitter. :o

It has been stated MANY times that HD DVD is "evolutionary", while Blu-ray is "revolutionary". Many things that HD DVD has done, from day one, have clearly shown that they expect the process of introducing HD DVD to be gradual and that clearly co-existence is part of the plan. Things such as incorporating an excellent SD DVD up-converter in their G1 players, things like combo discs, having affordable players from day one, the ease of adding HD DVD to existing DVD lines, etc. There has ABSOLUTELY been a different paradigm to the HD DVD implementation when compared to Blu-ray, one that recognizes that it can sit alongside DVD for a long time. and exist at the same time in people's houses who might have HD DVD in their main room, but SD DVD in the cars and smaller rooms. Whether or not it is promotoed this way, or whether this philosophy is an asset or a liability is another matter. But Plazman is more rirght about this than wrong, and everyone jumping on him could stand to think a bit about this and see clearly how these two formats differ in this regard. However, IMO, what can be questioned is the interpretation that HD DVD plus SD DVD is battling Blu-ray, rather than HD DVD alone.

There is an enormous difference between trying to leverage existing infrastructure to launch a new product generation versus, and I'll quote plaz on this:
HD DVD strategy has always been to coexist with DVD. [...] HD DVD was never about replacing DVD, it was to augment it....

Patently false. That's the dog wagging the tail. Retail establishments should seek to provide the product that an acceptable number of consumers want.
Actually the falsehood here is your assertion that retail should only provide what customers want. In fact, they are free to follow customer desires with product offerings OR engage in developing new markets - or anything else. The customers ultimately determine if their actions were of value - as it should be. There is no one correct way to sell product.

HD DVD was never about replacing DVD, it was to augment it....

If you want to be sure to hit your target, you should shoot first and then pick your target. ;)

If you want to be sure to hit your target, you should shoot first and then pick your target. ;)

Very nice. ;)

Sorry, but I'm going to have to cry foul on this.

Response to 1:
Target is a retail store just like any other, and has to make their purchasing and inventory decisions like any floor-space conscious retailer. I'm sure most of us can agree that high definition discs are not impressing most box store retailers with their volume at this time.

Response to 2:
You do when that third of the market is losing you money due to taking up precious floor space for better performing product. Sometimes you leave the line in the water, but sometimes you just cut bait and try something else.

Response to 3:
Target wants to make money, and only a blind man would fail to notice that the price of Blu-ray and HD DVD players has been converging over the past six months. Since their margin on Blu-ray players seems undoubtedly higher than on HD DVD players (well, we can't confirm this without insider confirmation, but how much would you like to bet? :) ), and they're probably seeing the same sales trends everyone else seems to be, which horse do you think they'll back, if in fact they do pull the trigger and drop a format?

Your points would make sense if Target and other retailers were making substantial amounts of money on high definition players and media, but the volume right now is so low that it's more likely that these products are costing them money by their mere presence in the store. In that scenario, none of your points work, and in fact completely invert.


1. So why make a choice? If the pie is small then discarding %40 of it makes little sense if you're hungry doesn't it?

2. Targets HD section is amongst the smallest I've seen. Hell their DVD clearance section is larger. They've mitigated their risk by dipping their tow into the water. I doubt finances are a factor.

3. The sales trends are pointing to HD DVD pulling away from Blu-ray for dedicated players. Sure Target sells PS3 but nothing plays movies like a dedicated player. Again HD DVD is priced friendly. $200 is $200 folks...that'll buy a lot of extra stuff in Target.

The crux of your argument is "Target is losing money" which cannot be substantiated without insider information. Thus it does not render any of my points invalid nor does it make sense from the standpoint that Blu-ray is going to be just as expensive to assign space to as HD DVD and it frankly isn't performing at a level that warrants exclusive support IMO. 60/40 is nothing that's 10 pts away from being even steven.

Target??


That store is for girls.

Actually the falsehood here is your assertion that retail should only provide what customers want. In fact, they are free to follow customer desires with product offerings OR engage in developing new markets - or anything else. The customers ultimately determine if their actions were of value - as it should be. There is no one correct way to sell product.

Yes but most people would posit that eschewing the needs of %40 of your core market is foolhardy at best. You are welcome to sell what you want but if you do not align your product line and strategy with your consumers you will not find success.

So, who else is waiting for the Target announcement?

Yeah, that quote from Plazman says it all, to say that Penton is not an "Insider." Hell, Penton's the reason PaidGeek's even here! And at the same time you have Plaz trying to burnish his 'insider' credentials with inside lines to shipment activity and this and that. I swear his story is ever-changing; for someone who claims to have achieved some pinnacle of business understanding or be some top exec at his company, constantly am I seeing posts that reflect a thinking totally detached from economic/business sense or reason.

1. So why make a choice? If the pie is small then discarding %40 of it makes little sense if you're hungry doesn't it? To jump in when the going's good. Why this argument all of the sudden doesn't apply just because it could happen with Blu-ray is ludicrous.
2. Targets HD section is amongst the smallest I've seen. Hell their DVD clearance section is larger. They've mitigated their risk by dipping their tow into the water. I doubt finances are a factor. See above.
3. The sales trends are pointing to HD DVD pulling away from Blu-ray for dedicated players. Really? All the data seems to be pointing the other way, since they're ahead 55 to 45, not 60 to 40 or higher.

hd-dvd makes profit on the discs to make up for loss on the players? cut the prices on the discs, and you narrow your margin even further?

BDA sponsors a lot of movie sale promotions, perhaps their model is to break even to slight loss on players, offset by a smaller than hd-dvd profit on discs?

Assuming this is the case, then they are sacrificing more by trying to eek out a minute profit on <1% of the DVD market now, than taking a loss in order to make more later. This is exactly the bet Sony is hedging, and (in terms of this war *only*) it's paying off.

Would it surprise anyone if Target had a press release saying...

"HD DVD and Blu-Ray cut from stores, DVD selection to be expanded"

Yes but most people would posit that eschewing the needs of %40 of your core market is foolhardy at best. You are welcome to sell what you want but if you do not align your product line and strategy with your consumers you will not find success.

It depends. For a second-tier player (in the DVD retail market), it may make sense to position itself as a leader in one of the up-and-coming formats, especially in the best selling format.

To jump in when the going's good. Why this argument all of the sudden doesn't apply just because it could happen with Blu-ray is ludicrous.
See above.
Really? All the data seems to be pointing the other way, since they're ahead 55 to 45, not 60 to 40 or higher.


Depends on how you view "the going good" I see nigh 2 million players that aren't generating a substantial alottment of movie sales in comparsion to HD DVD which is delivering more movies per player.

The information I've seen thus far doesn't backup that assertion. There's likely almost 200k HD DVD STB and I'm doubting that BD STB has broken 150k units.

When Sony's $500 player is the low end for BD STB compared to $300 for HD DVD I don't think consumers are suddenly going to move en masse to the more expensive player.

It depends. For a second-tier player (in the DVD retail market), it may make sense to position itself as a leader in one of the up-and-coming formats, especially in the best selling format.

Target's current investment in HD regarding shelf space doesn't portend a large push into becoming a market leader in HDM sales.

The information I've seen thus far doesn't backup that assertion. There's likely almost 200k HD DVD STB and I'm doubting that BD STB has broken 150k units.


Current reports from Toshiba indicates that there is a 45% Blu-ray 55% HDDVD split in the US for standalone players.

http://www.current.com.au/2007/07/17/article/IJABMCUABX.html

It has been stated MANY times that HD DVD is "evolutionary", while Blu-ray is "revolutionary". Many things that HD DVD has done, from day one, have clearly shown that they expect the process of introducing HD DVD to be gradual and that clearly co-existence is part of the plan. Things such as incorporating an excellent SD DVD up-converter in their G1 players, things like combo discs, having affordable players from day one, the ease of adding HD DVD to existing DVD lines, etc. There has ABSOLUTELY been a different paradigm to the HD DVD implementation when compared to Blu-ray, one that recognizes that it can sit alongside DVD for a long time. and exist at the same time in people's houses who might have HD DVD in their main room, but SD DVD in the cars and smaller rooms. Whether or not it is promotoed this way, or whether this philosophy is an asset or a liability is another matter. But Plazman is more rirght about this than wrong, and everyone jumping on him could stand to think a bit about this and see clearly how these two formats differ in this regard. However, IMO, what can be questioned is the interpretation that HD DVD plus SD DVD is battling Blu-ray, rather than HD DVD alone.

And, even with all those advantages, the major question to your average consumer (heck, to me as well) still remains: WHY ARE HD DVDs SO FRIGGING EXPENSIVE? They've had how long now to fine-tune the production process...yet they still can't get combo disk manufacturing right, and all the other disks, while certainly cheap-ER, are nowhere near the prices for a potential mass adoption.

If all the above advantages are indeed advantages (and I agree with you that they appear to be), then HD DVD has all the components it needs to end this. My bet is they will NOT lower HD DVD media prices, and they will NOT roll out combo disks en masse.

Do I want to see HD DVD hang around with authority? Of course I do, it's my prefered format. But I still think Christmas is going to be its Day of Reckoning, and it will become a permanent niche format -- that is, unless things change dramatically. You can only overcome so many PR victories.

1. So why make a choice? If the pie is small then discarding %40 of it makes little sense if you're hungry doesn't it?

2. Targets HD section is amongst the smallest I've seen. Hell their DVD clearance section is larger. They've mitigated their risk by dipping their tow into the water. I doubt finances are a factor.

3. The sales trends are pointing to HD DVD pulling away from Blu-ray for dedicated players. Sure Target sells PS3 but nothing plays movies like a dedicated player. Again HD DVD is priced friendly. $200 is $200 folks...that'll buy a lot of extra stuff in Target.

The crux of your argument is "Target is losing money" which cannot be substantiated without insider information. Thus it does not render any of my points invalid nor does it make sense from the standpoint that Blu-ray is going to be just as expensive to assign space to as HD DVD and it frankly isn't performing at a level that warrants exclusive support IMO. 60/40 is nothing that's 10 pts away from being even steven.
(1) Target knows there's a market out there for high def, but it's not very big yet, and if indeed they aren't making money on it, then the only reason to stay in is because they see the future potential. I agree there's ostensibly not many convincing reasons for them to not support both formats if they're going to support either one, but if they do decide to drop one (and knowingly shift the market by their actions), then the choice is obvious as to which one they'll drop at this time.

(2) Correct, which is why in my first post in this thread I talked about why any decision on Target's part is more symbolic than anything else since their high definition presence is thus far very low. That doesn't mean they're not going to micromanage that exposure, but I agree with you in principle that this shouldn't be a prime motivating factor; where I disagree with you is that they're somehow leaving money on the table if they do drop HD DVD from their stores.

(3) Au contraire.

HD DVD PRG press release in June:
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6450990.html

Following a reduction in pricing, HD DVD players command 60% of the high-definition stand-alone market, according to the North American HD DVD Promotional Group.

So HD DVD PRG says they have 60:40 standalone advantage in June, right?

OK, fast forward to this week:

http://www.itwire.com.au/content/view/13561/532/

Despite a slow start, Toshiba expects HD DVD players to outsell Blu-ray players in Australia by Christmas, says Toshiba Australia's information systems division general manager Mark Whittard. He is confident HD DVD has already reached this goal, but his figures do not include computers and games consoles such as Sony's Blu-ray enabled PlayStation 3.

Whittard stopped short of claiming HD DVD has won the high definition format war, a claim Sony made about Blu-ray as early as January. Even so, Whittard cited research giving HD DVD players a 55 per cent market share in the US and 73 per cent in Europe.

How does a shrink of 60% to 55% presence over one month constitute "pulling away from Blu-ray standalone sales"?

Bear in mind, I'm NOT quoting Sony or the BDA. These numbers are coming straight from Toshiba and the HD DVD PRG.

Would it surprise anyone if Target had a press release saying...

"HD DVD and Blu-Ray cut from stores, DVD selection to be expanded"

Not in the least. Both are -- at least for the foreseeable future -- relegated to niche status. I work in the IT industry and with a bunch of videophiles at that. I don't know of a single person that owns an HD player of any kind, and only one that owns a PS3. One!!! Noone cares about either of them with the current insane disk prices. That's all I ever hear from anyone, both IRL and on the web..."Is the war over yet?"..."Have disk prices come down?"

(1) Target knows there's a market out there for high def, but it's not very big yet, and if indeed they aren't making money on it, then the only reason to stay in is because they see the future potential. I agree there's ostensibly not many convincing reasons for them to not support both formats if they're going to support either one, but if they do decide to drop one (and knowingly shift the market by their actions), then the choice is obvious as to which one they'll drop at this time.

(2) Correct, which is why in my first post in this thread I talked about why any decision on Target's part is more symbolic than anything else since their high definition presence is thus far very low. That doesn't mean they're not going to micromanage that exposure, but I agree with you in principle that this shouldn't be a prime motivating factor; where I disagree with you is that they're somehow leaving money on the table if they do drop HD DVD from their stores.

(3) Au contraire.

HD DVD PRG press release in June:
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6450990.html



So HD DVD PRG says they have 60:40 standalone advantage in June, right?

OK, fast forward to this week:

http://www.itwire.com.au/content/view/13561/532/



How does a shrink of 60% to 55% presence over one month constitute "pulling away from Blu-ray standalone sales"?

Bear in mind, I'm NOT quoting Sony or the BDA. These numbers are coming straight from Toshiba and the HD DVD PRG.

Pretty convincing. It kinda points to the speculation that, of those 1% of the DVD market that are willing to invest in HD/BD, the player prices aren't as important as media prices. HD needs to lower disk prices somehow, someway...while simultaneously currying favor for a positive PR spin.

Not in the least. Both are -- at least for the foreseeable future -- relegated to niche status. I work in the IT industry and with a bunch of videophiles at that. I don't know of a single person that owns an HD player of any kind, and only one that owns a PS3. One!!! Noone cares about either of them with the current insane disk prices. That's all I ever hear from anyone, both IRL and on the web..."Is the war over yet?"..."Have disk prices come down?"

I work in the IT industry, but alas, don't have videophiles work directly with me or for me. You must work with some poor videophiles because for me, i'd rather spend the extra $5 on a movie in HD rather than a dvd and get 1080p and lossless audio.

(1) Target knows there's a market out there for high def, but it's not very big yet, and if indeed they aren't making money on it, then the only reason to stay in is because they see the future potential. I agree there's ostensibly not many convincing reasons for them to not support both formats if they're going to support either one, but if they do decide to drop one (and knowingly shift the market by their actions), then the choice is obvious as to which one they'll drop at this time.

(2) Correct, which is why in my first post in this thread I talked about why any decision on Target's part is more symbolic than anything else since their high definition presence is thus far very low. That doesn't mean they're not going to micromanage that exposure, but I agree with you in principle that this shouldn't be a prime motivating factor; where I disagree with you is that they're somehow leaving money on the table if they do drop HD DVD from their stores.

(3) Au contraire.

HD DVD PRG press release in June:
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6450990.html



So HD DVD PRG says they have 60:40 standalone advantage in June, right?

OK, fast forward to this week:

http://www.itwire.com.au/content/view/13561/532/



How does a shrink of 60% to 55% presence over one month constitute "pulling away from Blu-ray standalone sales"?

Bear in mind, I'm NOT quoting Sony or the BDA. These numbers are coming straight from Toshiba and the HD DVD PRG.

Everyone likes to make the assumption that the same people/methods are used for these studies, so the fact that on says 60/40 and another says 55/45, must mean market share is shrinking. However, what it really means is that two different groups, conducted two different studies, using two different methods, and arrived at two different answers, with somewhat similar results.

Who here is in a position to say which study is closer to the truth? No one, that's who.

Didn't Sony do a study that said something like 40-50% of PS3's are used for hi-def playback. With a few million units sold now, why aren't disc sales better? Should I conclude that PS3 owners just rent movies and will never purchase them (and if so, does that really benefit studios? Or should I conclude that the study had flawed results? If I take the logical approach of the Blu-ray fanboy, I should conclude that the numbers and methods must be ideal and beyond question, and only the flawed conclusion is to be believed.

DRM has not yet effected me yet so Im not sure why it matters. It just seems like something that HD DVD fans want to complain about because there is little else to complain about. Of course maximum disc space and bandwidth dont matter, but if i want to copy my $20 movie to a $25 disc it might be a problem. :rolleyes:

Funny you mention its expensiveness when on average the discs are $5 cheaper on BD. After so many discs I will have saved the difference in price on player price.

Finished standard? My Blu Ray player works fine with all my discs. They may choose to add features like DVD with upsampling and playing WMV files.

And of course anyone anti BD would love to have this good news for BD topic locked.

Exactly true

Didn't Sony do a study that said something like 40-50% of PS3's are used for hi-def playback. With a few million units sold now, why aren't disc sales better? I don't remember if Sony did such a study, regardless the answer is easy. Disc sales aren't better because the majority of these 40-50 percent of PS3 owners are not buying as many movies on average as those who are buying stand alone players are. Perhaps half of these 40-50 percent of ps3 owners have only bought between 1-4 movies. Or some other low number. Isn't this common sense?

I work in the IT industry, but alas, don't have videophiles work directly with me or for me. You must work with some poor videophiles because for me, i'd rather spend the extra $5 on a movie in HD rather than a dvd and get 1080p and lossless audio.

Naw, they're good guys with wads of dough to spend. However, they choose to spend their money "wisely". I use the word "wisely" very loosely. :lol: For instance, they choose to spend it on 1080p/24 displays for future-proofing. Right now they're content with crappy cable HD content. So in essence they have money and are willing to spend it, but not on something they feel will be less useful or niche in a few years' time, or that is "too pricey for what it is".

And the common sentiment I hear isn't so much of "Is the war over?" That primarily comes from the average Joes like my old man. I commonly hear from the videophiles that disks are too expensive for what they are. Why pay $34.95 plus tax for The Devil Wears Prada at Best Buy for instance, or $27.95 plus S&H on Amazon? While I am willing to pay it, they don't see those movies as HD reference -- yet they WANT to have the content on the newest format.

See the dilemma?

Everyone likes to make the assumption that the same people/methods are used for these studies, so the fact that on says 60/40 and another says 55/45, must mean market share is shrinking. However, what it really means is that two different groups, conducted two different studies, using two different methods, and arrived at two different answers, with somewhat similar results.

Who here is in a position to say which study is closer to the truth? No one, that's who.

Didn't Sony do a study that said something like 40-50% of PS3's are used for hi-def playback. With a few million units sold now, why aren't disc sales better? Should I conclude that PS3 owners just rent movies and will never purchase them (and if so, does that really benefit studios? Or should I conclude that the study had flawed results? If I take the logical approach of the Blu-ray fanboy, I should conclude that the numbers and methods must be ideal and beyond question, and only the flawed conclusion is to be believed.
You missed the point of the exercise, which was to refute hmurchison's assertion that HD DVD standalone sales were "pulling away from" Blu-ray standalone sales. If even Toshiba isn't willing to say it, what is the likelihood of it being true? The correct answer is: it's not true.

I'm sure a good portion of the activity was due to the sales rush on the newer units (Panny 10A, Sony S300), but even a generous interpretation such as you're using indicates that HD DVD standalones are at best holding their own even if you assume a margin of error in HD DVD's favor. There's no logical way to interpret it as "pulling away from" in any sense of the phrase.

I work in the IT industry, but alas, don't have videophiles work directly with me or for me. You must work with some poor videophiles because for me, i'd rather spend the extra $5 on a movie in HD rather than a dvd and get 1080p and lossless audio.

Very true. But how many of us are really out there? Very few have jumped in on either side. So many, sit on the sidelines. I think disk prices and lack of day and date on every release hurts more than 2 seperate formats at the moment.

Everyone likes to make the assumption that the same people/methods are used for these studies, so the fact that on says 60/40 and another says 55/45, must mean market share is shrinking. However, what it really means is that two different groups, conducted two different studies, using two different methods, and arrived at two different answers, with somewhat similar results.


You're forgetting: "who worked for the same employer, and who dealt with market percentage numbers of the same item"

Now maybe you start to see my frustration with Toshiba! Even if they aren't buffoonish, they certainly come across that way.

Naw, they're good guys with wads of dough to spend. However, they choose to spend their money "wisely". I use the word "wisely" very loosely. :lol: For instance, they choose to spend it on 1080p/24 displays for future-proofing. Right now they're content with crappy cable HD content. So in essence they have money and are willing to spend it, but not on something they feel will be less useful or niche in a few years' time, or that is "too pricey for what it is".

And the common sentiment I hear isn't so much of "Is the war over?" That primarily comes from the average Joes like my old man. I commonly hear from the videophiles that disks are too expensive for what they are. Why pay $34.95 plus tax for The Devil Wears Prada at Best Buy for instance, or $27.95 plus S&H on Amazon? While I am willing to pay it, they don't see those movies as HD reference -- yet they WANT to have the content on the newest format.

See the dilemma?


I have 2 friends that plan on jumping ship and grabbing the $499 PS3. They've both had HDTVs for a long time...

Man, I tell ya', I jumped at HDM as soon as I could afford it! :D

Very true. But how many of us are really out there? Very few have jumped in on either side. So many, sit on the sidelines. I think disk prices and lack of day and date on every release hurts more than 2 seperate formats at the moment.

And the fact that $5 is a ton of money per disk, even for HD content. If someone likes to purchase movies and isn't making 6 figures, that $5 per disk adds up.

I have 2 friends that plan on jumping ship and grabbing the $499 PS3. They've both had HDTVs for a long time...

Man, I tell ya', I jumped at HDM as soon as I could afford it! :D

Wait until you start buying content and see how pricey it is. If you're waiting for a price cut on a one-time only purchase like a player/PS3, you're gonna have your socks knocked off when you start calculating how few movies you can buy compared to DVD.

Wait until you start buying content and see how pricey it is. If you're waiting for a price cut on a one-time only purchase like a player/PS3, you're gonna have your socks knocked off when you start calculating how few movies you can buy compared to DVD.
I have over 30 BDs so far, but true, now I'm counting the days until release dates. ;)

Yes but most people would posit that eschewing the needs of %40 of your core market is foolhardy at best. You are welcome to sell what you want but if you do not align your product line and strategy with your consumers you will not find success.
The devil is always in the details. No retailer or vendor considers their market to be 100% of people. Retailers are constantly looking at shelf space, profit, image, complementary sales, branding, traffic, availability, delivery, relationships and on and on to determine their product offerings. There is a very good chance that a decision to carry only one format is well thought out, correct and very prudent.

Target choosing one format would be like them choosing to support one gaming platform. It won't happen.

Yeah, that quote from Plazman says it all, to say that Penton is not an "Insider." Hell, Penton's the reason PaidGeek's even here! And at the same time you have Plaz trying to burnish his 'insider' credentials with inside lines to shipment activity and this and that. I swear his story is ever-changing; for someone who claims to have achieved some pinnacle of business understanding or be some top exec at his company, constantly am I seeing posts that reflect a thinking totally detached from economic/business sense or reason.

Someone give me the skinny on this Penton guy. Either a link to his credentials or someone post up who he is. I never heard of him before this thread. How does he relate to Paidgeek?

Target choosing one format would be like them choosing to support one gaming platform. It won't happen.
Unlikely? Yes. But it's certainly possible and plausible despite being unlikely.

This isn't the gaming world where multiple standards are the norm. The last time home video had a bitter dispute about a video standard was DVD vs. DivX; there you had not only studios but retailers like Circuit City choosing sides, so any categorical denial that it would be impossible for retailers to choose sides is dubious at best.

I think we are more likely to see a retailer go exclusive after the holiday season. At the moment, I think its foolish for any retailer to go exclusive. Combined there isnt enough HD hardware and media sales to warrant it. It could happen. I just dont think this soon.

Someone give me the skinny on this Penton guy. Either a link to his credentials or someone post up who he is. I never heard of him before this thread. How does he relate to Paidgeek?

Ask Plazman, lol :eek:

Lets keep in mind that target, as well as other retail chains, probably won't be making any money off HD downloads. And so I assume that they would like HD optical (a medium that they will profit from) to own as much of the HD media market as possible. It may be in their interests to pick a side and help end the war.

I think we are more likely to see a retailer go exclusive after the holiday season. At the moment, I think its foolish for any retailer to go exclusive. Combined there isnt enough HD hardware and media sales to warrant it. It could happen. I just dont think this soon.Maybe the sales data at their hand say it's not so foolish. We see in online stores like Amazon HD DVD gets not bad sales, but it's likely offline retailers are feeling the PS3 effect by now.

From the Blockbuster Master thread,

I have heard from a reliable source that Target will go BD hardware exclusive...
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10814547&&#post10814547

So, Target just might not sell HD DVD players. Which is much less of a big deal than not selling HD DVDs.

So, Target just might not sell HD DVD players. Which is much less of a big deal than not selling HD DVDs.

True, except maybe for people who claim that success can only be measured by the sales of standalone players?

From the Blockbuster Master thread,


http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10814547&&#post10814547

So, Target just might not sell HD DVD players. Which is much less of a big deal than not selling HD DVDs.

So now an unsubstantiated rumor from today is being followed up by an unsubstantiated rumor from over a month ago? This is a great way to keep the flame war alive.

So now an unsubstantiated rumor from today is being followed up by an unsubstantiated rumor from over a month ago? This is a great way to keep the flame war alive.

The unsubstantiated rumour from today was kind of started by the same person that started the one a month ago.

According to the thread on blu-ray.com anyway.

wasn't there supposed to be an announcement sometime soon?

Still waiting for the news to break. Waiting...

On another note, Target seems to be a decent investment. I haven't been in "the game" in years but the company (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TGT) seems solid.

I am certain if and when the news arrives their stock price will skyrocket! :)

wasn't there supposed to be an announcement sometime soon?

P-M says to expect it late in the day in one of the BD software threads on this subject.

So now an unsubstantiated rumor from today is being followed up by an unsubstantiated rumor from over a month ago? This is a great way to keep the flame war alive.

The OP has generally been an HD DVD supporter, which suggests that this was posted with honest intentions. It looks more and more like this may indeed have been just a rumor, but many of us are interested in honest (non-FUD) rumors. The thread title also clearly reflected the content.

I don't mind Target deciding on a format but my only request is that they do so after having adequate information about the trends. Blu-ray offering a paltry 10 more titles and a 60/40 estimated split is simply not enough to standardize on one format IMO. Come on, hmurchison, you're well aware that the slowdown in BD title releases from certain studios relates to the availability of additional copy protection, and the floodgates will open in the near future. If not for the compromises of AACS (so ably-enabled by the Xbox 360 add-on) BD would have an overwhelming lead in titles right now.
1. So why make a choice? If the pie is small then discarding %40 of it makes little sense if you're hungry doesn't it?If you're hungry it seems like planting seeds (for those who are analogy-impaired, investing in future success of the more-promising format) makes more sense than continuing to hunt for table scraps.
The sales trends are pointing to HD DVD pulling away from Blu-ray for dedicated players.Even if this is true (and I suspect sales figures from the new lower-priced Sony and Panasonic models will impact this), it's a meaningless datapoint. It may be convenient to ignore PS3 sales, but it makes absolutely no sense when measuring the success of the format. You're trying to have it both ways - ignoring the PS3 when counting players, but including it when figuring attach rate. If you're going to ignore the PS3 then BD has an attach rate at least double HD DVD since title sales are double and there are fewer standalone players in the market.
Again HD DVD is priced friendly. $200 is $200 folks...that'll buy a lot of extra stuff in Target.Show me where an HD DVD player can be bought at Target for $200 (or for that matter anywhere else, given that Value Electronics' firesale is over)?

- Talk

The OP has generally been an HD DVD supporter, which suggests that this was posted with honest intentions. It looks more and more like this may indeed have been just a rumor, but many of us are interested in honest (non-FUD) rumors. The thread title also clearly reflected the content.

My post wasn't really about the initial rumor in this thread. I was actually interested to see if it was true and have monitored the thread all day. Then this turned into another battle thread, and as it seemed to be dying down, an old rumor was thrown in, adding more fuel. Round and round it goes...

If retailers start choosing Blu-ray, it slows the advancement of high definition by a few years. $400 - $500 is just too much for the average family, and without HD DVD to push it, there is not much incentive for them to lower prices.How about greater consumer adoption? The BD camp understands the need to ensure consumer migration to high-def, but dropping prices below sustainable levels immediately (as has Toshiba) only craters the format and ensures H/W vendors can never profit in the market. The Blu-ray camp has taken an approach which better maps to early adopter behavior, hence a continued flow of new vendors supporting the format.

Which is a fraction of the cost of putting in a new BD line....And does little to help the fact that DVD replication is a commodity business. Those willing to invest in a Blu-ray line will likely find much better margins and hence a more compelling business model.

Show me where an HD DVD player can be bought at Target for $200 (or for that matter anywhere else, given that Value Electronics' firesale is over)?

- Talk

Firesale, mistakes, misprints whatever. This price point has been breached several times now with the same overwhelming response. $199 seems to be a magic number. Get HD DVD in Brick and Mortars at that price and watch what happens. Even at Target :)

Exactly right. the suggestion is to shut out roughly 40% of the market for high def. Ridiculous.It's 33% of the high-def market (since BD sales are consistently 2x HD DVD sales), and losing that 33% of the market would quickly be compensated by greatly enlarging the size of the Blu-ray market (given the very high percentage of people sitting on the sidelines until a clear format victor has emerged).

Talk

The $200 is the price delta between the MSRP of the Sony BD Players (including the PS3 and the Toshiba HD-A2)

As cool as Blu-ray is I'm convinced that the exclusive studios for Blu-ray are analogous to a breathing ventilator. Without them Blu-ray dies a quiet death.

Current DVDs look damn good on upscaling DVD players. These formats only hope of replacing DVD is going to be with pricing and HD DVD seems far more suited to that goal from a platform standpoint.

Karma may have it that the shenanigans that the studios are pulling will likely kill these formats. Consumers tend to know when they've been bamboozled.

BDA sponsors a lot of movie sale promotions, perhaps their model is to break even to slight loss on players, offset by a smaller than hd-dvd profit on discs?BDA sponsors no promotions - it creates and supports a format specification. Any promotions are undertaken by individual companies or groups of companies who are fully-independent from the BDA.

My post wasn't really about the initial rumor in this thread. I was actually interested to see if it was true and have monitored the thread all day. Then this turned into another battle thread, and as it seemed to be dying down, an old rumor was thrown in, adding more fuel. Round and round it goes...

When there are many guns with nothing to shoot at, all damage is collateral damage.

How about greater consumer adoption? The BD camp understands the need to ensure consumer migration to high-def, but dropping prices below sustainable levels immediately (as has Toshiba) only craters the format and ensures H/W vendors can never profit in the market. The Blu-ray camp has taken an approach which better maps to early adopter behavior, hence a continued flow of new vendors supporting the format.
Yeah like Denon coming board with their $2k offering. LOL!

As cool as Blu-ray is I'm convinced that the exclusive studios for Blu-ray are analogous to a breathing ventilator. Without them Blu-ray dies a quiet death.


So bluray has many breathing ventilators while hddvd has only 1, Universal.
Great analogy :rolleyes:

Edit : 1000 posts. Very nice !

If not for the compromises of AACS (so ably-enabled by the Xbox 360 add-on)
You will need to provide proof that the compromises were not, in fact, ably-enabled by WinDVD and PowerDVD, before getting away with disinformation like this.

Get your digs in if you like, but be truthful and factual.

The $200 is the price delta between the MSRP of the Sony BD Players (including the PS3 and the Toshiba HD-A2)Fair enough.
As cool as Blu-ray is I'm convinced that the exclusive studios for Blu-ray are analogous to a breathing ventilator. Without them Blu-ray dies a quiet death. And without Toshiba OR Universal OR Microsoft HD DVD dies a noisy death. What's the point?
Current DVDs look damn good on upscaling DVD players. These formats only hope of replacing DVD is going to be with pricing and HD DVD seems far more suited to that goal from a platform standpoint. Anyone with proper equipment can see (and hear) an obvious difference from upscaled DVD. Without the consumer confusion of a format war a single high-definition format can grow in the same way DVD did, co-existing with VHS for many many years while showing significant year-over-year gains. Blu-ray's vastly greater vendor support makes it the obvious candidate to succeed DVD. Don't confuse Toshiba's more aggressive (some might call it "desparate") pricing strategy with
underlying fundamentals which actually support that pricing.

You will need to provide proof that the compromises were not, in fact, ably-enabled by WinDVD and PowerDVD, before getting away with disinformation like this.

Get your digs in if you like, but be truthful and factual.There's no lack of truth in my post. What drive did the hackers use to read the HD DVD media? Xbox 360 add-ons, intended only for the Xbox but in no way disabled from use on a PC. And what drive did they learn to reflash to ignore key revocation? Xbox 360 add-ons. Yes, weakness in WinDVD / PowerDVD implementations played a part, but without the Xbox 360 add-ons this would have taken far longer.

Come on, hmurchison, you're well aware that the slowdown in BD title releases from certain studios relates to the availability of additional copy protection, and the floodgates will open in the near future. If not for the compromises of AACS (so ably-enabled by the Xbox 360 add-on) BD would have an overwhelming lead in titles right now.
- Talk

I've seen this posted as fact in many threads around here but nobody can produce any link to the reason this is why some studios have not been releasing titles on BD. Can you provide a link? Are you speaking in an official status on this matter or is it a hunch like everyone else?

How about greater consumer adoption? The BD camp understands the need to ensure consumer migration to high-def, but dropping prices below sustainable levels immediately (as has Toshiba) only craters the format and ensures H/W vendors can never profit in the market. The Blu-ray camp has taken an approach which better maps to early adopter behavior, hence a continued flow of new vendors supporting the format.
Toshiba has dropped priced below sustainable levels? Says who?

First off, without PS3 owners casually buying Blu-ray, HD DVD would have already won. HD DVD is a superior technology and it’s cheaper to produce. The extra 20 GB Blu-ray can hold is meaningless, a lot of HD movies can fit on only 15 GB and even collections like Planet Earth shipped on 4 discs for each format. HD DVD can access the web and to picture in picture TODAY. Who knows with Blu-ray, certainly it’s not something we’ve seen yet. So it’s pretty clear that right now, HD DVD gets the nod in technology.

Blu-ray is like 3DO game system from the mid 90s. Many hardware producers (with high price points). Many software publishers (with very little standout content). And yet, 3DO got killed by $99 SNES and Sega Genesis machines (both had only 1 manufacturer each), which is where Toshiba is positioning itself.

Perhaps the funniest thing is that once Blu-ray machines are finally required to adhere to a standard (October of this year?), manufacturing costs will actually go up! Blu-ray hardware is moving in the wrong direction!

Toshiba has dropped priced below sustainable levels? Says who?

First off, without PS3 owners casually buying Blu-ray, HD DVD would have already won. HD DVD is a superior technology and it’s cheaper to produce. The extra 20 GB Blu-ray can hold is meaningless, a lot of HD movies can fit on only 15 GB and even collections like Planet Earth shipped on 4 discs for each format. HD DVD can access the web and to picture in picture TODAY. Who knows with Blu-ray, certainly it’s not something we’ve seen yet. So it’s pretty clear that right now, HD DVD gets the nod in technology.

Blu-ray is like 3DO game system from the mid 90s. Many hardware producers (with high price points). Many software publishers (with very little standout content). And yet, 3DO got killed by $99 SNES and Sega Genesis machines (both had only 1 manufacturer each), which is where Toshiba is positioning itself.

Perhaps the funniest thing is that once Blu-ray machines are finally required to adhere to a standard (October of this year?), manufacturing costs will actually go up! Blu-ray hardware is moving in the wrong direction!

Superior Technology? I don't know but who has the higher bitrate, more GBs, a reliable coating....to call HD-DVD superior technology spews of fanboyism.

Cheaper? Yes I can agree with that, but even then the disc are NOT that much cheaper to produce. With increase in volume production of the Bluray disks, their costs witll go down.

How about greater consumer adoption? The BD camp understands the need to ensure consumer migration to high-def, but dropping prices below sustainable levels immediately (as has Toshiba) only craters the format and ensures H/W vendors can never profit in the market. The Blu-ray camp has taken an approach which better maps to early adopter behavior, hence a continued flow of new vendors supporting the format.

It's 33% of the high-def market (since BD sales are consistently 2x HD DVD sales), and losing that 33% of the market would quickly be compensated by greatly enlarging the size of the Blu-ray market (given the very high percentage of people sitting on the sidelines until a clear format victor has emerged).

And yet the US marketplace has demonstrated that this is a complete fallacy time & time again. The US market is about cost & convenience. The market is quiet happy with their DVDs & until the next product is a) similar in cost b) similar in convenience then it's on a bullet train to oblivion.

It would be nice if they had the luxury of time to reap profits & get market share, but they don't - HDLite downloads are breathing down their necks and the US market would like nothing more than "click & go". It's the ultimate in convenience.

As for the CE profits....who cares? Somebody will step in to fill the void. And their will always be a market for "more $$$ than brains" products that give a nice profit. Let's not forget to factor in that licensing fees also come along with HDM. Some CEs may lose out, but many stand to profit. As with the current DVD players CEs can have their products built at competitive prices - many consumers will pay a bit extra for a name they know.

BD desperately needs a major PR event since sales are not too hot and growth is even lagging DVD and below itunes movie download. It is reaching the point where BDis looking a lot like UMD. Format for the PS3, hence the tremendous pressure on Sony to cut prices and move hardware....fast.

If BD needs a major PR event because it is behind UMD. Where does that put HD DVD??? :D

If BD needs a major PR event because it is behind UMD. Where does that put HD DVD??? :D
That's an easy one. Universal is likely to lose more money on ONE picture (Evan Almighty) than ALL of the HDM sales since inception.

Shows where both are :D

There's no lack of truth in my post. What drive did the hackers use to read the HD DVD media? Xbox 360 add-ons, intended only for the Xbox but in no way disabled from use on a PC. And what drive did they learn to reflash to ignore key revocation? Xbox 360 add-ons. Yes, weakness in WinDVD / PowerDVD implementations played a part, but without the Xbox 360 add-ons this would have taken far longer.
I would categorize the early work with the software players as the flash point to the rest. Those were able-enablers to say the least since they exposed the hidden elements to look for elsewhere. Will any PC-connected drives be safe? Or is 360 singled out because they were first?

And, I don't think the PS3 will be immune from similar issues for much longer.

What drive did the hackers use to read the HD DVD media? Xbox 360 add-ons, intended only for the Xbox but in no way disabled from use on a PC. And what drive did they learn to reflash to ignore key revocation? Xbox 360 add-ons. Yes, weakness in WinDVD / PowerDVD implementations played a part, but without the Xbox 360 add-ons this would have taken far longer.So let me guess, those same hackers also rip BluRay movies with the Xbox 360 add-on as well? I'm not even going to bring up the fact that people are ripping BDs using the PS3 (wait, I just did!). At least Microsoft is charging $200 extra for those capabilities. I'm sure that was Microsoft's plan all along; to have people pirate the format they support. I really don't know what you are trying to get at, but the point is clearly lost on me.

It's 33% of the high-def market (since BD sales are consistently 2x HD DVD sales), and losing that 33% of the market would quickly be compensated by greatly enlarging the size of the Blu-ray market (given the very high percentage of people sitting on the sidelines until a clear format victor has emerged).

Since inception it's roughly 60-40. And should stores stop selling Mac computers because Apple has only 5% of the market? Ridiculous as I stated.

Finally, your comment about "greatly enlarging" is speculative and not workable as long as Blu players are priced at what they are.

How about greater consumer adoption? The BD camp understands the need to ensure consumer migration to high-def, but dropping prices below sustainable levels immediately (as has Toshiba) only craters the format and ensures H/W vendors can never profit in the market. The Blu-ray camp has taken an approach which better maps to early adopter behavior, hence a continued flow of new vendors supporting the format.

WOW! Does that sound good for consumers or what? Man do you know what consumers want. Hmm, lets see does the consumer want: a) a format that is low cost to produce with a manufacturer content on making their living on licensing fees and royalties (i.e., very thin margins) and therefore less costly for consumers, or b) a format that encourages vendor support because margins are better? Tough call.

Seriously this post and the one after it don't sound like things I want as a consumer. I WANT commoditized models because they result in lower prices for me. I am completely and totally unconcered with whether or not the C/E manfuacturer makes 3% GM or 30% GM, as long as they make enough to stay in business and crank out the stuff I wanna' buy. Your perspective has a very strong "you should like this because it's good for the companies that produce it slant", which makes abso-freakin-lutely no sense to me. We're consumers, we wan the best possible product at the lowest possible price, bounded on both sides by "I can tell the difference" and "as long as it is sustainable and ethical" -- ok, maybe some folks don't have those boundaries, but I do.

In general, while I don't own a next gen HD disc format yet, it's exactly this sort of approach by Sony and the BR group that has turned me off to their product (even thought I've historically been a Sony supporter). I find Toshiba's approach and strategy far more consumer friendly, which is why I hope they stick it out and at least co-exist.

...Current DVDs look damn good on upscaling DVD players...
99+% of us "normal" ~HD people (advanced J6P'ers) watch HD lite or digital SD on little HDTVs across the room. Compare hours watching broadcast to hours watching DVDs. So, we will sit at a distance that makes SD/HD-lite work and HDM irrelevant. It's a waste of time & money to bother with HDM.

When BD+ DRM is broken and the DRMstudios(Sony, Fox, Disney,...) throw in the towel, the format war will be over. DVD will be declared the winner. Until then, DVD will simple win all the money.

Now back to picking an HDTV that does the best upconversion of SD.

P-M says to expect it late in the day in one of the BD software threads on this subject.

Somehow I think if this gets announced today, I won't have to look further than this thread for it, until then, still waiting.

Fair enough.
Anyone with proper equipment can see (and hear) an obvious difference from upscaled DVD. Without the consumer confusion of a format war a single high-definition format can grow in the same way DVD did, co-existing with VHS for many many years while showing significant year-over-year gains. Blu-ray's vastly greater vendor support makes it the obvious candidate to succeed DVD. Don't confuse Toshiba's more aggressive (some might call it "desparate") pricing strategy with
underlying fundamentals which actually support that pricing.

Of course you can see the difference between HD media and upscaled DVD. The VHS to DVD conversion was a considerable upgrade in sound and picture performance. While still using your old tv. However, to gain the picture performance of the HD media, you need a new HDTV. Which many do not have. Sound performance has its own issue. Many do not take advantage of it on DVD, much less have a set up for HD media.

Many companies make major announcements after the market closes for what its worth.

Toshiba has dropped priced below sustainable levels? Says who?
...
HD DVD is a superior technology and it’s cheaper to produce. The extra 20 GB Blu-ray can hold is meaningless, a lot of HD movies can fit on only 15 GB and even collections like Planet Earth shipped on 4 discs for each format.

I know that this sort of nonsense doesn't represent the majority, better-informed HD DVD enthusiast at AVS, but having posts like this on the board doesn't do serious HD DVD enthusiasts any favors either.

I know that this sort of nonsense doesn't represent the majority, better-informed HD DVD enthusiast at AVS, but having posts like this on the board doesn't do serious HD DVD enthusiasts any favors either.

Whatever. I like how you left off internet capabilities and PIP arguments, which are not on Blu-ray at the moment. The only thing Blu-ray has is bigger disc size, which has been meaningless so far.

Somehow I think if this gets announced today, I won't have to look further than this thread for it, until then, still waiting.

The news thread probably has a better S/N ratio though :)

Target beefing up their HDM support is pretty important to me, since once my 10% Amazon discount and Prime membership expire, I will likely go back to buying my Tuesday releases on the way to work. Target opens at 8, which always works out great for me.

Right now the Targets around here tend to carry about 15 Blu-Ray and 15 HD-DVD titles at one time. If they plan to double that space and go all Blu, that would mean more like 60 Blu-Ray titles (just guessing here). Target has never been a place to go for catalog movies long-term, but they have always been very good about having many new releases of both new films and catalog titles on release day for a good sale price.

If they can get their 1st week sale prices on new Blu-Ray's somewhere between $20 and $23, they'll definitely be getting some of my business.

Whatever. I like how you left off internet capabilities and PIP arguments, which are not on Blu-ray at the moment. The only thing Blu-ray has is bigger disc size, which has been meaningless so far.

PIP on BD is on the way. And many of Disney's discs (Chicago, Pirates) could not be duplicated on HD DVD without dropping bit-rate or features because of the lower bandwidth/capacity.

Whatever. I like how you left off internet capabilities and PIP arguments, which are not on Blu-ray at the moment. The only thing Blu-ray has is bigger disc size, which has been meaningless so far.

The bigger disc size is not meaningless. The new Fifth Element has both a PCM and TrueHD track, and plenty of room for the AVC encode. I doubt this would be possible on 30GB.

There is no way you can rationally argue less disk space is better in the long run. Sure, HD-DVD gets by with 30Gb quite well right now, but to say an extra 20GB is "meaningless" is just myopic.

PIP on BD is on the way. And many of Disney's discs (Chicago, Pirates) could not be duplicated on HD DVD without dropping bit-rate or features because of the lower bandwidth/capacity.

I read this over at blu-ray.com. For those that care about extra's this is something to look forward too.

Watching 300 with a video feed of the original bluescreen video is quite frankly a badass experience. But early next year Blu-ray will be able to do the same thing - but it will do so with a hi-def feed. Something HD-DVD can't and won't do. All around, next year, Blu-ray will be better, stronger and faster than HD-DVD is

24bit/48kHz, 6.9Mbps, inefficient as hell but it is light years beyond any compressed lossy format. This is the sound that I remember from 2.0 PCM laserdisc days.

6.9Mbps, some DVDs never even hit that peak with audio and video.

If DolbyTrueHD becomes the norm for lossless, please just say no to Dialog Normalization and that goes for both formats.

Whatever. I like how you left off internet capabilities and PIP arguments, which are not on Blu-ray at the moment. The only thing Blu-ray has is bigger disc size, which has been meaningless so far.

Don't forget higher bandwidth and more exclusive studios.
PIP and internet capabilities have not been proven to be a factor in this war. PIP is like a human appendix, some have it(hddvd), some currently don't(bluray). In the end, its still useless.
Even when BD gets that ability, i doubt it'll entice many more people to go blu simply because of this.

I read this over at blu-ray.com. For those that care about extra's this is something to look forward too.

Correct, i've been saying this as well in many, many threads. Blurays PIP will surpass the lame pip that hddvd currently has. Anyway, bluray needs things that will sell more discs. Like fox and more blockbuster hits from disney and sony. But looks like the fourth quarter is looking real good for bd according the MGM announcement made on blu-ray.com

The bigger disc size is not meaningless. The new Fifth Element has both a PCM and TrueHD track, and plenty of room for the AVC encode. I doubt this would be possible on 30GB.

There is no way you can rationally argue less disk space is better in the long run. Sure, HD-DVD gets by with 30Gb quite well right now, but to say an extra 20GB is "meaningless" is just myopic.

TrueHD AND PCM...holy repugnant redundancy Batman. What was Sony thinking? Perhaps:

Sony: This damn codec is too efficient. We have all this space ..what shall we do? Aha...lets toss in that PCM track.

The extra 20GB is meaningful in a way that delivers no added value to me. But I'm glad it's there..perhaps someday someone will actually do something useful with the space.

perhaps someday someone will actually do something useful with the space.

Yup, its called Lord of the Rings : Extended Edition.
Even Troy : Directors cut but again, it'll probably get the hddvd scraps

Correct, i've been saying this as well in many, many threads. Blurays PIP will surpass the lame pip that hddvd currently has. Anyway, bluray needs things that will sell more discs. Like fox and more blockbuster hits from disney and sony. But looks like the fourth quarter is looking real good for bd according the MGM announcement made on ban-ray.com


Man ..just how excited are we supposed to get with Pip? While I'm sitting there watching the movie with Pip function on ..I can't tell you how much it is "killing" me knowing that that 5" square box isn't in HD. Ohhh horrors the resolution I am giving up is an abomination!

Yup, its called Lord of the Rings : Extended Edition.
Even Troy : Directors cut but again, it'll probably get the hddvd scraps

Troy is Warner and New Line is owned by Warner. Don't count on scraps kemosabe. Just what am I going to be missing?

I'm sure Target will sell plenty of these movies in both formats.

Man ..just how excited are we supposed to get with Pip? While I'm sitting there watching the movie with Pip function on ..I can't tell you how much it is "killing" me knowing that that 5" square box isn't in HD. Ohhh horrors the resolution I am giving up is an abomination!

Look i'm not that crazy about it either but ...
Ever heard of swapping and resizing ?

Troy is Warner and New Line is owned by Warner. Don't count on scraps kemosabe. Just what am I going to be missing?

I'm sure Target will sell plenty of these movies in both formats.

You missed the point. You said, perhaps someone will do something useful with the extra space on bd.
I said, lord of the rings extended edition seems to fit the bill. I can't wait to see how new line handles this 4 hour movie with lossless audio and a pip encode onto a 30GB disc.
A) It'll be extremely crappy video
B) The feature movie will be on 2 discs (like the dvds)
C) Or it'll be the theatrical cut.

BD Supporters don't want any one of these 3.

Man ..just how excited are we supposed to get with Pip? While I'm sitting there watching the movie with Pip function on ..I can't tell you how much it is "killing" me knowing that that 5" square box isn't in HD. Ohhh horrors the resolution I am giving up is an abomination!

Funny, I feel the same about the Pip feature in general. Oh man it is "killing" me that i can't have a 5" box with someone talking to me as I am trying to WATCH THE MOVIE. What a concept.

TrueHD AND PCM...holy repugnant redundancy Batman. What was Sony thinking? Perhaps:

Sony: This damn codec is too efficient. We have all this space ..what shall we do? Aha...lets toss in that PCM track.

The extra 20GB is meaningful in a way that delivers no added value to me. But I'm glad it's there..perhaps someday someone will actually do something useful with the space.

Oh boy.

If HD-DVD had 50GB and Blu-Ray 30GB we would never hear the end of it from HD-DVD supporters.

When the Extended Edition of LOTR comes to HDM, that is when it will start to make a difference. That goes for pretty much any 3 hour+ movie.

King King would have been nice with TrueHD, but I'm sure it just wasn't possible on 30GB without compromising PQ.

Again, you can say HD-DVD does well with 30GB, but to say the extra 20GB is meaningless is partisan rhetoric at its worst.

Lots of "gonna'" and "next year" and "will" in them there posts . . .

As far as the 20 GB of space, until you can compare the same movie side by side using the same codec with two different-sized encodes, trying to quantify whether or not a 50 GB AVC encode is perceptually, noticeably better than a 30 GB AVC encode is a completely theoretical discussion. Truth be told, no one (other than a compressionist who has seen them both) actually knows for certain.

Funny, I feel the same about the Pip feature in general. Oh man it is "killing" me that i can't have a 5" box with someone talking to me as I am trying to WATCH THE MOVIE. What a concept.

+1

Look i'm not that crazy about it either but ...
Ever heard of swapping and resizing ?

+1

Lots of "gonna'" and "next year" and "will" in them there posts . . .
As far as the 20 GB of space, until you can compare the same movie side by side using the same codec with two different-sized encodes, trying to quantify whether or not a 50 GB AVC encode is perceptually, noticeably better than a 30 GB AVC encode is a completely theoretical discussion. Truth be told, no one (other than a compressionist who has seen them both) actually knows for certain.


Yes because HD'ers never say onkyo and meridian are "gonna" have players "next year"

Please man, it happens on both sides.

Funny, I feel the same about the Pip feature in general. Oh man it is "killing" me that i can't have a 5" box with someone talking to me as I am trying to WATCH THE MOVIE. What a concept.
Yeah? I love it. I've watched a couple movies twice, once with it on and once with it off. It's added value to the movie. It's like pop-up video was on VH1.

TrueHD AND PCM...holy repugnant redundancy Batman. What was Sony thinking? Perhaps:

Sony: This damn codec is too efficient. We have all this space ..what shall we do? Aha...lets toss in that PCM track.

The extra 20GB is meaningful in a way that delivers no added value to me. But I'm glad it's there..perhaps someday someone will actually do something useful with the space.


The format war brought BD the best of both worlds. Higher disc capacity combined with newer more efficient codecs. Yes currently there is space going unused on some titles, but others like PotC releases are maximizing BD video and audio potential. So much that they put the extras on a separate BD25. Now is this marketing to certain extent, but if Disney could have put all this content on a single BD50, don't you think they would have done it to show off what can be done with a single BD50?

Theoretically speaking the HD DVD release would need three discs, to try and match it, but HD DVD is already BW limited compared to BD.

Funny, I feel the same about the Pip feature in general. Oh man it is "killing" me that i can't have a 5" box with someone talking to me as I am trying to WATCH THE MOVIE. What a concept.

I have said the same thing many times. If I want to watch the movie, I want to watch the movie. If I want to watch a "making of" extra, I want to watch the "making of" extra. I don't want to try to watch both at the same time in a format that makes neither one satisfactorily watchable.

Whatever. I like how you left off internet capabilities and PIP arguments, which are not on Blu-ray at the moment. The only thing Blu-ray has is bigger disc size, which has been meaningless so far.

you forgot much higher bandwidth, which is the most important factor for good sound and picture quality. OH BUT WHO NEEDS THAT WHEN YOU HAVE LOW RES PIP RITE????

Yeah? I love it. I've watched a couple movies twice, once with it on and once with it off. It's added value to the movie. It's like pop-up video was on VH1.


Of course you do, I am sure many people do, the post I was responding to had an irrelevant argument, so I gave mine.

I have said the same thing many times. If I want to watch the movie, I want to watch the movie. If I want to watch a "making of" extra, I want to watch the "making of" extra. I don't want to try to watch both at the same time in a format that makes neither one satisfactorily watchable.

CRACK! ITS OUT OF THE PARK!! HOME RUN! HOME RUN!

you forgot much higher bandwidth, which is the most important factor for good sound and picture quality. OH BUT WHO NEEDS THAT WHEN YOU HAVE LOW RES PIP RITE????

remember the goal is to compress and smear the PQ as much as possible so that we can eventually use the encodes for downloads instead.

Oh boy.

If HD-DVD had 50GB and Blu-Ray 30GB we would never hear the end of it from HD-DVD supporters.

When the Extended Edition of LOTR comes to HDM, that is when it will start to make a difference. That goes for pretty much any 3 hour+ movie.

King King would have been nice with TrueHD, but I'm sure it just wasn't possible on 30GB without compromising PQ.

Again, you can say HD-DVD does well with 30GB, but to say the extra 20GB is meaningless is partisan rhetoric at its worst.

Of course I can say it. It's well supported with empirical fact. I wouldn't say the extra 20GB is meaningless without providing some context.

"The extra 20GB of data available to Blu-ray is qualitatively meaningless" The movie could and should look the same whether it resides on a 30 gigger or a 50 gigger. The Prestige kind of backs this up.

By the time Lord of the Rings hits it's likely that HD DVD sizing will be 17/34/51GB which corresponds to single/double/triple layer discs.

Microsoft will continue to improve VC-1 the AVC will continue to improve and Target will continue to support both formats happily.

Watching 300 with a video feed of the original bluescreen video is quite frankly a badass experience. But early next year Blu-ray will be able to do the same thing - but it will do so with a hi-def feed. Something HD-DVD can't and won't do. All around, next year, Blu-ray will be better, stronger and faster than HD-DVD is

The beauty of 1080p PIP is that you could "swap" the images and watch the special-effects or whatever was in the minimized window (like a work-print) in full 1080. Nice.

You could also use the 2ndary video 1080p stream for 3-D encoding... both video streams having full 1080p24 quality. REAL 3-D on HD consumer media. IMAX. Think about it.

remember the goal is to compress and smear the PQ as much as possible so that we can eventually use the encodes for downloads instead.

Apparently Warner's strategy.

By the time Lord of the Rings hits it's likely that HD DVD sizing will be 17/34/51GB which corresponds to single/double/triple layer discs.


You base this on what?

By the time the LOTR hits I'll take it the way it will be presented best, on Blu-ray disc.

35+ Mbps AVC/MPEG-4 encode
9.216 Mbps 7.1 24/48 PCM audio

Two disc set for main feature. One disc for extras.

Thank you. HD DVD need not even apply with its 30GB and 30 Mbps ceiling because it will only ruin what could be one of the best looking HD experiences of a lifetime.

Of course I can say it. It's well supported with empirical fact. I wouldn't say the extra 20GB is meaningless without providing some context.

"The extra 20GB of data available to Blu-ray is qualitatively meaningless" The movie could and should look the same whether it resides on a 30 gigger or a 50 gigger. The Prestige kind of backs this up.

By the time Lord of the Rings hits it's likely that HD DVD sizing will be 17/34/51GB which corresponds to single/double/triple layer discs.

Microsoft will continue to improve VC-1 the AVC will continue to improve and Target will continue to support both formats happily.


I thought the 1 time I read an argument against more capacity was the last time, obviously not............. /wrists

By the time Lord of the Rings hits it's likely that HD DVD sizing will be 17/34/51GB which corresponds to single/double/triple layer discs.

Even if those mythical discs become reality and somehow manage to not render those discs unplayable on previous generation players:rolleyes: , what about the bandwidth on the ROM ?

I think the best solution is to give hddvd a low bitrate encode of LOTR: theatrical version and the bluray version gets a high bitrate AVC/VC1 encode of LOTR : extended. Problem solved :D

30 > 50, it is the new math and the reason Americans are falling behind the rest of the world in technological innovation.

The beauty of 1080p PIP is that you could "swap" the images and watch the special-effects or whatever was in the minimized window (like a work-print) in full 1080. Nice.

You could also use the 2ndary video 1080p stream for 3-D encoding... both video streams having full 1080p24 quality. REAL 3-D on HD consumer media. IMAX. Think about it.

That's a sweet feature David. Target certainly is going to love demoing that feature at the least.

Lots of "gonna'" and "next year" and "will" in them there posts . . .

As far as the 20 GB of space, until you can compare the same movie side by side using the same codec with two different-sized encodes, trying to quantify whether or not a 50 GB AVC encode is perceptually, noticeably better than a 30 GB AVC encode is a completely theoretical discussion. Truth be told, no one (other than a compressionist who has seen them both) actually knows for certain.
Not after September 11th. Nature's Journey - two maxed out separate VC-1 encodes by R&B Films. Since we're all enthusiasts here at AVS, the HD DVD encode better be a perfect match to the BD version. Anything less is not acceptable, otherwise they'll need to change the slogan to "The Look and Sound of Almost Perfect."

You base this on what?

By the time the LOTR hits I'll take it the way it will be presented best, on Blu-ray disc.

35+ Mbps AVC/MPEG-4 encode
9.216 Mbps 7.1 24/48 PCM audio

Two disc set for main feature. One disc for extras.

Thank you. HD DVD need not even apply with its 30GB and 30 Mbps ceiling because it will only ruin what could be one of the best looking HD experiences of a lifetime.

Based on economics. New Line isn't going to do seperate encodes for those of you who like to engage in specification flagellation. Stop beating yourself up...just enjoy the movie. I bet you watch movies with the bitrate meter up don't you :D

Hope it's true. Anything that will move us closer to a single format, and sooner, is a good thing! (Apologies to Martha Stewart).

Even if those mythical discs become reality and somehow manage to not render those discs unplayable on previous generation players:rolleyes: , what about the bandwidth on the ROM ?

I think the best solution is to give hddvd a low bitrate encode of LOTR: theatrical version and the bluray version gets a high bitrate AVC/VC1 encode of LOTR : extended. Problem solved :D

Didn't hurt CD-R to go from 650MB to 700MB did it?

Bandwidth? Not a problem with VC-1 and AVC improvements. Plus aren't we still waiting for some Muxing improvements in VC-1. I know that you are desirious to make a absolute connection between higher bitrate and quality but it's a bit more complex than that.

Hope it's true. Anything that will move us closer to a single format, and sooner, is a good thing! (Apologies to Martha Stewart).


I have a single format. HD DVD and Target carries the movies for my player.

Based on economics. New Line isn't going to do seperate encodes for those of you who like to engage in specification flagellation. Stop beating yourself up...just enjoy the movie. I bet you watch movies with the bitrate meter up don't you :D

I enjoy movies more when they are encoded properly for the better format, not when they are handicapped by being encoded to fit within HD DVD's rather lowly specs.

Paramount can do seperate encodes, who says New Line won't?