The format war is over when?

The answer to that questions depends (in part) on if one of the HD optical formats replaces dvd. That's why the stakes are so high for consumers that don't want downloads.

I'd say 30+ years. Downloads don't really compete with the buying of movies, but rather the renting of movies. Having a bunch of bits on server machines with massive storage that require regular backups isn't the stuff that average people want to deal with. You can't also easily watch the download in the car or loan it to the grandparents.

I'd say 30+ years. Downloads don't really compete with the buying of movies, but rather the renting of movies.

I have no stats to back this up, but I think that the vast majority of movie watchers rent 99% of their movies, wouldn't you agree? Rental just seems to be king with the unwashed masses, and the rental market is ripe for replacement with downloads.

There's huge demand for rentals, but at least in the USA, broadband simply doesn't have enough presence (or infrastructure) to handle widespread proliferation of massive data transfer of this nature.

My vote definitely goes for 5+ years (I'd peg it around 10 years).

I'd say 30+ years. Downloads don't really compete with the buying of movies, but rather the renting of movies. Having a bunch of bits on server machines with massive storage that require regular backups isn't the stuff that average people want to deal with. You can't also easily watch the download in the car or loan it to the grandparents.

Interesting. DLs compete if it costs $7-8 to buy (or less). Also if one can DL then no need to loan it out, someone else can DL it too.

500GB drives cost $130, solid-state drives are getting cheaper too.

As for watching in the car/loaning, what's a 4gb thumbdrive cost?

There's huge demand for rentals, but at least in the USA, broadband simply doesn't have enough presence (or infrastructure) to handle widespread proliferation of massive data transfer of this nature.

My vote definitely goes for 5+ years (I'd peg it around 10 years).

+1, for similar reasons, and again I say this as someone who has actually worked on a large scale VOD project with large companies (Blockbuster, etc.) and telcos (Qwest, SBC, etc.).

The bandwidth and infrastructure isn't there, and the death of net neutrality is only going to make trying to get content from one end of the network to another that much more difficult unless you own the entire network.

Even in the heart of Silicon Valley, downloading gigantic (multi-gigabyte) files is a painful experience. And it hasn't improved much in the last five years, so I'm not expecting big leaps in the next five.

Downloadable video will compete with optical media side by side for years (exactly as has been happening with the music industry). My guess is that in about five years the industries will be of equal size. In 12 years 98 percent of video purchased and rented will be downloaded.

Apple is readying a video download service to be available in the fall. It seems to me that this is what will really put video downloads on the map, who knows how big it will be. I assume it will immediately (even only being a rental service) begin eating into physical media revenues. How long before they, or someone else, strikes a deal with studios allowing actual purchases? I'm guessing between 1 to 2 years from now. And the question I care about is how long before HD becomes available at perhaps a premium? My guess would be also between a year or two from now.

Even in the heart of Silicon Valley, downloading gigantic (multi-gigabyte) files is a painful experience. And it hasn't improved much in the last five years, so I'm not expecting big leaps in the next five.

Ironically enough, Silicon Valley is a backwater when it comes to internet infrastructure rollout. I remember waiting painfully for DSL rollout to Sunnyvale at the end of the 90s. But that shows how I feel about the overall glacial pace of progress in the US as of late.

I give it 10+ years to be the majority way for content delivery.

As soon as the infrastructure is there it is over. See the difficulties that Verizon Fios and ATT Lightspeed is having rolling out. Unless some new technology comes out enabling faster speeds to more people in a timely manner, nothing will change. My guess is ten or more years.

JUNE 14 | SANTA MONICA, Calif.—Executives from leading movie download companies said their business is 10 years or more away from becoming a mainstream consumer offering, with an unlimited range of movies that can be viewed easily on the TV

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6452274.html

There's huge demand for rentals, but at least in the USA, broadband simply doesn't have enough presence (or infrastructure) to handle widespread proliferation of massive data transfer of this nature.

My vote definitely goes for 5+ years (I'd peg it around 10 years).


Me too. I've got Fios installed and the basic package is fast at 5Mbs download 2Mbps upload. In 5-10 years 15Mbps connections should be commonplace (I know the exist now but not in every locality)

That and swarm technology will make downloading HD movie content fairly easy. A decade ago downloading an MP3 would have been somewhat difficult now I download them in a blink of the eye.

I will never DL any movies. I want to be able to hold my movie in my hand. I dont want to lose all of my movies because my computer crashed or the server gpoes down in the middle of a DL. I like to show off my movie collection, I dont want to say "hey look at my computer and see how many movies I have on there"

People like to collect things.

We are clearly paying more for the priviledge of building a collection than we would pay using some PPV scheme for the number of times we watch a film.

The studios have figured this out and will want to keep this revenue stream going.

As big as downloading may become, people will still want to collect.

I will never DL any movies. I want to be able to hold my movie in my hand. I dont want to lose all of my movies because my computer crashed or the server gpoes down in the middle of a DL. I like to show off my movie collection, I dont want to say "hey look at my computer and see how many movies I have on there"

I didn't say you'll not be able to buy them, but you will pay much more to fulfill that need. There's a lot of work involved in a physical disc.

o disc pressing
o someone has to design the mold for the plastic container
o raw materials are needed for disc and packaging
o someone has to design the inserts and liner notes
o someone has to decide what image to put on the disc
o some B&M has to place an order for the discs
o someone has to fill the order
o someone pays for the shipping container
o the order must be shipped, fuel,labor
o someone accepts the order and unpacks
o the inventory is entered in the DB
o the inventory is placed in the B&M
o you have to go to the store to buy it


You get the idea. Compared with an DL the cost of distribution for a physical disc is very high. If you buy online you might make it worse since then it ships twice, unless the fulfillment process is really good. Not many online stores have that part well managed. If I'm DL my media I don't want to pay the costs so you can get your physical copy. I've said before in other threads but smart money is moving away from B&M to sell movie or music bits on plastic and toward all digital, all the time. Google's bought up a bunch of unused fiber (dark cable) and they have also bought youtube. Hmmm, what do you suppose they intend to do? Apple's pushing videos already. Some people are pushing technology ahead with all the legacy-lovers kicking and screaming but coming along since the tide's turning.

There's huge demand for rentals, but at least in the USA, broadband simply doesn't have enough presence (or infrastructure) to handle widespread proliferation of massive data transfer of this nature.

My vote definitely goes for 5+ years (I'd peg it around 10 years).

Yup - this sounds about right to me. Bandwidth (at least in the US) for HD movies just isn't ready yet.

It's probably not a popular idea around here, but IMO, downloads will be vastly better overall. I'm a huge collector myself, with literally thousands of DVDs, HD DVDs, BDs & CDs, but there's no logical reason for it. It's some sort of mental handicap.

Downloads vastly reduce cost, completely eliminate waste of physical materials, storage space & redundant manufacturing resources. They also greatly increase availability and offer great new potentials for content accessibility. (Think of being able to play your movie collection from anywhere at anytime via mass wireless networks.)

Physical media has essentially no benefit what-so-ever when compared to well designed electronic distribution - the only one being to appease our irrational desire to amass large quantities of shiny discs for show. I'm a collector too, but there's no way I can deny that our habits *should* fall by the wayside once electronic distribution is feasible.

I don't think downloading will ever over take disc based media. We may get to 40/60 .

I think it will be awhile. They have to make a PC free box that hooks directly to you TV and incommin internet. No media servers or HTPCs. This box will either have to have a large HDD or download speeds will have to reach a point that the movie is downloaded in minnites.

Their has to be a way to store the movie or remmber the movie in the event of a system crash or HDD loss. So you can get all your movies back. Said down loads need to offer every thing on disc. All audio and video. Extras everything.
Basicly it operates like a disc.

Theirs still a lost of folks with just dial-up no way they can use this. Many areas don't offer land based high speed. Only in the forn of dial-up or sat.

JUNE 14 | SANTA MONICA, Calif.—Executives from leading movie download companies said their business is 10 years or more away from becoming a mainstream consumer offering, with an unlimited range of movies that can be viewed easily on the TV

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6452274.html
iTunes already offers movie downloads. Jobs has some ties (Disney/Pixar) so it's not the same battle for iTunes as for others (like the ones in that article), who are outsiders in the movie biz.

Most people only watch a movie once so who cares if your HD crashes. BD and DH DVD are both niche formats and thats all they will ever be.