What Would Be Blu rays Worst Nightmare? [Text View]

nfinity

08-09-07, 05:13 AM

Unless Sony goes out of business I don't see Blu-ray going away any sooner than HD-DVD. I love my HD-DVD, but honestly I see that Blu-ray has many more exclusive studios and an instant 1,000,000+ user base via the Playstation 3. It is my belief that both formats will survive and coexist via universal players.

Mark

Sony will definitely not go out of business, but I see Blu-Ray being the same as UMD to PSP. Blu-Ray going away completely will never happen. Having a 6-7 million consumers with Blu-Ray player will drive the need to continue releasing games at least on Blu-Ray.

The reason why Blu-Ray has more studio advantage is because Sony alone freaking owns more then half of them. Sony has Sony Pictures, Columbia Pictures, MGM and TriStar. Disney and Fox support haven't really materialized and you know what, I don't see it happening for a WHILE. The reason? Well knowing studios way of thinking as I work with them and for them, I know that Fox and Disney are being VERY careful and are actually watching HD DVD with OPEN eyes.

They have released a few titles to legal back-up their contracts with Sony and BDA, but are not investing a lot of money at all. They see HD DVDs growth and BDs decline and want to see what will happen this holiday. If HD DVD comes out with a surprise like triples it's user's base, or Walmart goes HD DVD only, they want to make sure their investment will be justified. It's simple as that.

The second biggest burden of blu-rays financial support is being carried by electronics companies like Pioneer, Samsung, LG and others. Panasonic and Sony are investing the most amounts of course because Sony and Matsushita are main backers behind Blu-Ray. Others are pretty much "contractors" as they were sold money and glory at the beginning, they signed a contract and now they can't back-out that easily.

This is why you see Samsung and LG going neutral as they probably said "screw it, we want to start making some money" but they have to respect the contracts so they had to develop hybrids in order to legally say, well here, we still support Blu-Ray. Legal stuff is very tricky with these deals brotha, trust me. I wouldn't be surprised that a year after Blu-Ray launch Sony is strong-arming it's electronics hardware supporters. Pioneer is next on the list, I'm pretty sure they'll be coming out with some kind of hybrid soon enough.

What you say about having hybrids is not logical. For a regular person who wants hi-def movies, by the time hybrid players lower the price to acceptable levels, HD DVD will be at sub $100.

Now pay attention. Put yourself in a position of someone who doesn't have either.

Consumers will look at it this way..if hybrid players play both, I can go ahead and buy a $99 hd dvd player now and maybe a hybrid later when it comes to $99. This way, I can still use my collection of HD DVD movies on the new hybrids. This is how J6P thinks, not to say it's not logical, and they will continue buying HD DVD titles for their $99 HD DVD player and build their library with HD DVD only titles.

But if this is what they will most likely do, what will drive the prices of hybrids down? In this scenario, the need for hybrids is gone..as most people bought HD DVD player and slowly but surely more and more studios will start releasing HD DVD titles. By the time hybrids come down in price, we'll have a sea of HD DVD players and software, so existence of hybrids will not be warranted.

Hybrids will never live to see mass adoptation because Blu-Ray part of them still keeps the price too high.. Logical conclusion.. they all switch to HD DVD only before hybrids come down in price. Just watch.

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http://www.designbyinfinity.com/internet/avssig.jpg

Rooster-X

08-09-07, 07:16 AM

Universal release only combos at sd-dvd prices. No more Universal SD-DVD's ;)

Xylon

08-09-07, 07:38 AM

One of the BD exclusive studios suddenly went neutral.

Chilling.

JoeInNVa

08-09-07, 07:45 AM

PS3 tanks even worse...

Caurus

08-09-07, 07:52 AM

Street price of HD DVD combos drops to $19.99.

JeffY

08-09-07, 07:55 AM

Easy... Major PS3 recall and unable to ship new units due to patent issue. :D

vurbano

08-09-07, 07:57 AM

BD rot.

kkozma

08-09-07, 07:58 AM

Since we're all pulling crap out of our hoo-haa's...

Star Wars exclusive to HD DVD. Game over...

cdzie1

08-09-07, 08:00 AM

$199 HD DVD players sitting next to $499 Blu-ray players in Wal-mart & Target.

Wait a second, Sony can't let that happen, they'll make behind the scenes deals. Forget the customer, if they only see Blu-ray, they won't know they are getting ripped off. Man I hate Target.

martijua

08-09-07, 08:04 AM

Their worst nightmare is that the PS3 generation starts modding their PS3 (http://www.makezine.com/blog/archive/ps3grill_2006-11-21.jpg).

Goatspeed

08-09-07, 08:06 AM

Funny thread. If there were a "What is HD-DVD's worst nightmare" thread, the answer would have to be "how things are going right now".

Combo disk issues
Combo disk pricing
1 Exclusive studio
Major companies announcing BD backing
Squandered software sales lead
BD pulling away in software sales
Only cheapo player manufacturers
Only 1 player that is HDMI 1.3 and 1080p

properbostonian

08-09-07, 08:09 AM

On the software side, studio neutrality across the board.

On the hardware side, a player that mirrors BD specs for $199 and is backwards compatible.

realracer2

08-09-07, 08:46 AM

Nintendo putting an HD DVD player in the Wii.

turansformer

08-09-07, 08:49 AM

Good games start coming out on the PS3, and less movies are bought.

Lee Stewart

08-09-07, 08:50 AM

The media runs with the issue that current BD player are a work in progress and that no consumer who purchases (or has purchased) a BD SAL will be able to see future special features like PIP. It would kill sales of all BD SAL's and make 4 CEM's VERY angry - no sales = no revenue.

Goatspeed

08-09-07, 08:51 AM

Good games start coming out on the PS3, and less movies are bought.

Good games sell consoles. There would be more BD sales if there were more good games on PS3.

cybereality

08-09-07, 08:51 AM

BD+ getting cracked 1 week prior to official release.

jdsanko

08-09-07, 08:55 AM

You have it backwards. HD-DVD needed a quick win which they may have had if MS had put an HD-DVD drive in the XBox 360.

nfinity

08-09-07, 09:08 AM

Nintendo putting an HD DVD player in the Wii.

Actually that, but also

Nintendo selling a $99 HD DVD add-on for Wii :)

turansformer

08-09-07, 09:14 AM

Good games sell consoles. There would be more BD sales if there were more good games on PS3.

So, how do you explain the tanking of UMD movie sales after good games started coming out on the PSP?

Bailey151

08-09-07, 09:18 AM

Good games sell consoles. There would be more BD sales if there were more good games on PS3.
Yep, too bad games cut into movie purchases.

Knock out?

$14.99 combo disc day/date with no SD version released.

SugarBowl

08-09-07, 09:41 AM

import movies become more affordable

dad1153

08-09-07, 09:54 AM

A well-publicized Black Friday deal in which HD-DVD players go for $199 or less w/free movies (hopefully over the counter at the store so that Nielsen/Videoscan counts them). Even if Blu-ray wins the holiday season in market share (likely given its exclusive line-up of summer blockbusters) a "hot" HD-DVD seller during the Xmas season would cement the perception there are two high-def formats on the market. In 2008 the losses for Blu-ray accumulated from the years (2006 and 2007) of subsidizing the format hits Sony hard-enough that investors revolt at the crummy return for their investment the stock is providing (with BD and PS3 eating up what would have been big profits from CE and entertainment divisions).

It's Sony's unsustainable business plan of subsidizing Blu-ray and PS3 until BD replaces DVD as the primary source of royalty-providing format revenue (a pretty unlikely scenario even without HD-DVD in the picture) that in the end will do the format in. Either both formats co-exist and neutrality (from studios or players) becomes commonplace, or Sony will spend a fortune defeating HD-DVD only to have DVD continue to be the primary home video device in the land. The very real possibility that Sony could bankrupt its once-dominant videogame division to win the privilege over HD-DVD of getting squashed by DVD's towering presence is the stuff behind-the-scenes books like "Barbarians at the Gate" are made of. I can't wait to read the book on the behind-the-scenes Sony/Toshiba and Blu-ray/HD-DVD battles. :)

xolan99

08-09-07, 09:56 AM

How would cheaper imports significantly hurt Blu-ray? Even if imports went down to, say, $20 US dollars, Joe Average in Springfield isn't going to know or want to visit foreign sites just to buy a flick.

garien

08-09-07, 10:06 AM

$14.99 combo disc day/date with no SD version released. I concur. Although the List price should be something like $19.99 or $24.99. Basically mirror what they are doing to S-DVDs today, bait consumers to purchase the title during its first week run with a deal/sale.

Nintendo putting an HD DVD player in the Wii.ROFL - that would be a BR killer indeed.

rboster

08-09-07, 10:12 AM

Goatspeed

08-09-07, 10:34 AM

So, how do you explain the tanking of UMD movie sales after good games started coming out on the PSP?

Hmm, because watching $20+ movies on a 2 inch screen sucks?

browerjs

08-09-07, 10:48 AM

I know serveral have mentioned black friday deals....I don't see how that has a big impact on HD-DVD (maybe to some degree in terms of visability)...but the quanitites are always limited, so it's not like there are going to be a ton of new ppl now buying software. The only one that really benefits is the store (and the limit number of customers who get the player), since BF are meant to bring customers in the door to buy other items. But, the deal has such LIMITED NUMBER of players how does something like that turn the tide or have a big impact?

I think the "Black Friday" deals that you speak of are basically store run specials where they take a loss on a limited quantity on some big items. Now if Toshiba wanted to push HD DVD for the holiday season, they would just ramp up production over the coming months, lower MSRP starting on Black Friday and make sure the B&M stores had the stock. Retailers may slash that price a little bit more in hopes to sell some HDTVs or something, but if Toshiba wants to make some noise starting on BF, they'll need to make sure they are leading the way, not the retailers.

I think when the term Black Friday is thrown around here, concerning HD DVD and their plans, most people are referring to the holiday shopping season as a whole, not just one day.

garien

08-09-07, 10:54 AM

At this point in the war - I don't think HD-DVD can rely heavily on hardware sales to boost its side. No offense - but majority of people who shop at Target, Walmart, etc... are not interested in purchasing latest high tech gear. When you have a "movie player" for $299 (HD) vs another one sitting beside it for $99 (SD), they will more than likely pick the $99 player.

As for Black Friday deals - unless Toshiba can back up the stores by guaranteeing that there is going to be sufficient stock (because we can all agree here that Black Friday deals are bait to get customers into the store to purchase something else) I don't think it'll make a marketable difference.

That is why I believe that although Target is BR exclusive for hardware, it probably means less to HD camp compared to Blockbuster going BR exclusive for in-stores rentals.

I think the hated combo can end up benefitting HD-DVD if done so correctly. For example someone mentioned the "twin format". I personally like that idea.
And if you can market it as such:
- The single HD-DVD has everything on it, fully loaded to the brim (incl. all the IME, extras, commentaries, etc....)
- The second S-DVD only has the movie, but has to be the identical non-HD version of the movie.
- No standalone S-DVD version available.
- Price point identical to current S-DVD titles. (God knows manufacturing cost isn't the bane of HD-DVDs, just corporate greed)

This way a person who really loves the movie and wants to watch the extras can do so with a HD player, but Average Joe who wants to just watch the movie can do just that for the same $$. Then Average Joe will be happy with the fact that when he goes to the next generation player, he can still utilize the HD version for all the extras that he missed and get better PQ and AQ to boost (unless he's till RF'ing it) :p
And then guess what??? Blockbuster is going to start bartering a deal with HD-DVD because they can get 2 for 1 when it comes to rentals. After all they already strip out the original cases for BB ones, so now they can hit 2 rental markets for the price of one.

turansformer

08-09-07, 11:01 AM

Hmm, because watching $20+ movies on a 2 inch screen sucks?

I can agree with this. However, before the good games started being released for the PSP, UMD movie sales were huge. They were so huge that Sony issued a report claiming that UMD movie sales would account for 60% of all PSP media. Of course, we all know what happened soon afterwards. This clearly indicates that many people did enjoy watching $20+ movies on a small screen, but that their preferences soon changed.

link (http://www.pspworld.com/sony-psp/umd-movies/umd-sales-strong-sony-to-boost-production-001384.php)

kevivoe

08-09-07, 11:20 AM

A game console selling 4M worldwide when it was to be 12M worldwide by now. $$ matters to quite a few people I assume.

SugarBowl

08-09-07, 11:32 AM

Goatse

08-09-07, 11:37 AM

Actually that, but also

Nintendo selling a $99 HD DVD add-on for Wii :)

wii doesn't have the processing power to decode hd movies and what are you gonna listen to RCA two channel sound?

txfilmguy

08-09-07, 12:39 PM

If Netflix dropped Blu-ray, that would be a big blow. However, I don't see that happening. The discs are far more durable so they don't have to be re-surfaced or replaced as often, and the selection and demand keep rising.

joerod

08-09-07, 01:08 PM

Disney going Red... :)

nikonjava

08-09-07, 01:16 PM

Disney going Red... :)

Yes, and Warner not double-dipping and dropping Blue.

alpha21

08-09-07, 01:18 PM

*EU report comes back finding Sony/BD voilated regulations (if that's the term)
*BD+ broken almost immediately upon inception

announcements like these will negate all current propaganda type announcements from BD

bpsmith14

08-09-07, 01:24 PM

garien

08-09-07, 01:59 PM

PS3 sales dropping after they have reached their finite consumer base, while HD DVD players continue to sell strongly. IMHO this is exactly what will happen. And when it does, studios will take note and respond accordingly. Blu Ray couldn't pull off the quick win they needed. No worries.Don't know what the numbers are for HD-DVD players in the same timeframe, but did anyone take into account sales of standalone BD players in the same timeframe? I saw 100K untis somewhere. Not saying that it's big numbers, but it should be accounted for since it's a real player.

RGBHV

08-09-07, 02:56 PM

That company gets their injunction that include the destruction of all units that infringe on the patent in question. (AKA the destruction of all PS3s).

AustinSTI

08-09-07, 03:26 PM

This thread was great it made me laugh and made my jaw drop in a few places. The realistic things that could happen are only a few.

These things WON'T Happen/Aren't nightmarish for BD in the next 12 months:

Warner going Back to HD-DVD exclusive won't happen. Since they went neutral they have become the leading HD studio and 65% of HD sales are coming from BD. Going exclusive would be stupidity for them.
Disney won't go neutral and is still releasing (despite someone's comment to the contrary). They are the same as universal on the HD-DVD side; the staunchest backer of the format doing roadshows for it etc.
BD+ Will be hacked - how long who knows but DRM being hacked didn't stop studios from releasing on HD-DVD and the same will be said about any copy protection.
Cheaper imports won't happen - the dollar sucks against the euro so if anything imports will be more expensive in the future.
That company gets their injunction that include the destruction of all units that infringe on the patent in question. (AKA the destruction of all PS3s). If anything the suit will end up being a payout, they won't destroy all the units the logistics make it impossible and precedant says this won't happen.
Cheap Chinese HD DVD standalones - this is about as likely as FOX releasing Blu-Ray. We've all been hearing it for months but where is it? This could happen in the near term but it's been such vaporware that I'll believe it when I see it.
Cheaper players - Can't go much lower than it has been and the pricing between formats will even out over time. If a black friday deal comes out for HD-DVD you've got to believe based on history Sony will reduce pricing on their players too. The Sony standalone itself is due for a pricecut since its the same price as the PS3. I can't believe sony sold any of those; you get so much more with PS3.
Nintendo putting an HD DVD player in the Wii. This won't happen; who wants an HD-DVD player that only outputs 480p? May as well buy an SD player...
Studio neutrality across the board. Won't happen; Sony will NEVER go neutral and Disney is highly unlikely...
Star Wars on HD-DVD exclusively

Potential Nigthmare items that may occur:

universal publishing "jurassic park 1 +2", the "back to the future trilogy" and "E.T." While these are great movies catalogue titles to date haven't sold very well so who knows...but these movies TOGETHER as HD-DVD exclusives would be nightmarish; I know I'd buy HD-DVD if that happened.

Now for the things that would be VERY bad for BD:

walmart going hddvd exclusive - Possible though Walmart is as likely to go BD exclusive
ALL HD-DVDs released as combos at sd-dvd prices AND no more SD being released by said studios. One studio alone won't do it but all studios currently supporting the format doing this would be bad.
MS puts an HD-DVD drive in the XBox 360 (not an add on, but internal)

The items that are possible if they happened together could hurt BD. 2 or more is a nightmare but one alone is just like the blockbuster news for HD-DVD; it hurts but not a nightmare.

I realize this is a fantasy thread but just wanted to comment on what I felt were real threats or could help the format...

plazman

08-09-07, 03:34 PM

Worst nightmare? Panny no longer footing Disneys bills and Sony having to discount the PS3 further to keep the format alive. Wonder how much impact Sonys decision to cut subsidies to Fox had on their current BD release schedule? You can keep alive a unsustainable business model alive with cash infusion only for so long....at some point reality will bite you in the a$$.

Everdog

08-09-07, 03:37 PM

Universal release only combos at sd-dvd prices. No more Universal SD-DVD's ;)

+1

Warner might do this for a few titles too.

txfilmguy

08-09-07, 03:45 PM

Potential Nigthmare items that may occur:

universal publishing "jurassic park 1 +2", the "back to the future trilogy" and "E.T." and Star Wars exclusive to HD DVD. While these are great movies catalogue titles to date haven't sold very well so who knows...but these movies TOGETHER as HD-DVD exclusives would be nightmarish; I know I'd buy HD-DVD if that happened.
File that under Things that would never happen. Fox has Star Wars. BD only. Also, Spielberg seems to have an aversion to HD DVD. Whether that is just perceived or a fact has yet to be seen, but he has halted HD DVD releases of his films and Close Encounters is official on Blu-ray.

plazman

08-09-07, 03:49 PM

File that under Things that would never happen. Fox has Star Wars. BD only. Also, Speilberg seems to have an aversion to HD DVD. Whether that is just perceived or a fact has yet to be seen, but he has halted HD DVD releases of his films and Close Encounters is official on Blu-ray.

Halted? More FUD....

Which Spielberg movie is having a special DVD release this year?

txfilmguy

08-09-07, 03:53 PM

Halted? More FUD....

Which Spielberg movie is having a special DVD release this year?
Do your homework. It's on the HD DVD Promotions Group webpage.

http://www.hddvdprg.com/eng/list.html

article:
http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/461

Lee Stewart

08-09-07, 03:59 PM

File that under Things that would never happen. Fox has Star Wars. BD only. Also, Spielberg seems to have an aversion to HD DVD. Whether that is just perceived or a fact has yet to be seen, but he has halted HD DVD releases of his films and Close Encounters is official on Blu-ray.

Speilberg does not have any say as to how Close Encounters is released. Just like Jaws. These were early films of his and he did not have the clout that he earned a bit latter in his career. His approval was not needed. It is Sony spinning another one of their FUD announcements.

txfilmguy

08-09-07, 04:03 PM

Speilberg does not have any say as to how Close Encounters is released. Just like Jaws. These were early films of his and he did not have the clout that he earned a bit latter in his career. His approval was not needed. It is Sony spinning another one of their FUD announcements.
Maybe they didn't need his ringing endorsement, but they got it. Spielberg is involved in the producing of the Blu-ray version, providing new material for the release including a new introduction:

http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/closeencounters.html

Also, Sony releasing a highly-anticipated title does not qualify as a FUD announcement.

I do not spread FUD. I'm just making sure information is accurate. I do the same on the Blu-ray forum.

JAG1977

08-09-07, 04:05 PM

Care to tell me why I should now buy a HD-DVD player, the Blu side have already convinced me to buy a Blu-ray player, other than Bourne there's not much on the horizon for HD-DVD!

angelo913

08-09-07, 04:10 PM

Care to tell me why I should now buy a HD-DVD player, the Blu side have already convinced me to buy a Blu-ray player, other than Bourne there's not much on the horizon for HD-DVD!

Stay on TOPIC!

...Angelo

JAG1977

08-09-07, 04:11 PM

Stay on TOPIC!

...Angelo

Your all hoping BD will shoot itself in the foot, fact is there is increrasing demand for BD, HD-DVD needs to SELL itself, not worry about another format.

angelo913

08-09-07, 04:13 PM

Blu-ray standalones now outsell HD-DVD standalones.

Can't stay on topic? It hurts doesn't it, thinking if any of these comes true. I'm having fun reading this.

...Angelo

turansformer

08-09-07, 04:14 PM

Care to tell me why I should now buy a HD-DVD player, the Blu side have already convinced me to buy a Blu-ray player, other than Bourne there's not much on the horizon for HD-DVD!

http://i185.photobucket.com/albums/x178/turansformer/troll2copy.jpg

Lee Stewart

08-09-07, 04:15 PM

Maybe they didn't need his ringing endorsement, but they got it. Spielberg is involved in the producing of the Blu-ray version, providing new material for the release including a new introduction:
http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/closeencounters.html

Also, Sony releasing a highly-anticipated title does not qualify as a FUD announcement.

I do not spread FUD. I'm just making sure information is accurate. I do the same on the Blu-ray forum.

Sorry - all I see this this: • New Introduction by Steven Spielberg

"Hey Steven, it's Dave Bishop form Sony - just wanted to let you know we are releasing Close Encounters - how about we pay you $100,000 for a 5 to 10 minute new intro to the film - do it right at your house on L.I. - no muss, no fuss"

"Sure Dave - might as well - can't stop you."

txfilmguy

08-09-07, 04:17 PM

Sorry - all I see this this: • New Introduction by Steven Spielberg

"Hey Steven, it's Dave Bishop form Sony - just wanted to let you know we are releasing Close Encounters - how about we pay you $100,000 for a 5 to 10 minute new intro to the film - do it right at your house on L.I. - no muss, no fuss"

"Sure Dave - might as well - can't stop you."
I offer documented fact and you rebute with speculation.

SamwisetheBrave

08-09-07, 05:40 PM

Can't stay on topic? It hurts doesn't it, thinking if any of these comes true. I'm having fun reading this.

...Angelo
They can't help themselves, can they? :p

Dahlsim

08-09-07, 05:47 PM

As long as BD holds out the promise that it could be profitable and also stifle piracy most of the industry is likely to prefer it. The nightmare scenario is that hd dvd stays alive for an extended period and becomes a longterm viable choice for consumers.

In a dual format survival scenario it may be hard to ever recover subsidies put in toward BD and make that a profitable format any time soon. I suspect this is why much of the industry is in a rush to put such a quick end to hd dvd format and the 'end of war has already happened' is trumpeted loud and often.

It's not at all certain that BD format can afford for hd dvd format to even survive very long, let alone flourish. BD most likely needs the high def optical arena all to itself to work.

txfilmguy

08-09-07, 05:50 PM

K-Dawg

08-09-07, 05:52 PM

FremontRich

08-09-07, 06:01 PM

As far as software sales, and positioning of HD DVD titles in Blu ray exclusive DVD only shops? This is a honest question Mods.

1. $99 Chinese HD DVD players
2. Fox and Disney go neutral.

FremontRich

08-09-07, 06:03 PM

5thDanMaster

08-09-07, 06:19 PM

As far as software sales, and positioning of HD DVD titles in Blu ray exclusive DVD only shops? This is a honest question Mods.
1) All studios including Universal going neutral...BDA loses.
2) New Line going HD DVD eclusive.
3) Fox or Disney going format neutral
4) HD DVD staying competitive for just 1 more year...BDA folds, everyone goes neutral.

5thDanMaster

08-09-07, 06:25 PM

Care to tell me why I should now buy a HD-DVD player, the Blu side have already convinced me to buy a Blu-ray player, other than Bourne there's not much on the horizon for HD-DVD!
Then if you really don't care or worry about HD DVD, you would remain content and above our petty HD DVD forum, you would stay in the BR forum and enjoy the vast emptiness and useless space that is BD50. :D

EatingPie

08-09-07, 06:27 PM

I said this was obvious in the "sister" thread. Wish this truly were a real topic though. No way this will last more than a day or two.

1) HD-DVD adding another level of UN-HACKABLE Copy Protection.
2) Increase in HD-DVD Software Marketshare by 300%.
3) Increase in HD-DVD Hardware Marketshare pushing it past 2x the sales of PS3 plus standalone BD players.
4) ALL Blu-Ray Only companies going Neutral

Note that price of HD-DVD players is irrelevant. What matters is marketshare, regardless of price.

Also, every single studio listed Copy Protection as their #1 requirement for a DVD successor. Every. Single. Studio. Regardless of how you or I feel about copy protection, I'm talking about the studios -- you know, the guys who aren't releasing Jaws and Jurrasic Park -- and new copy protection would be a windfall for HD-DVD after the AACS hack.

-Pie

5thDanMaster

08-09-07, 06:37 PM

I said this was obvious in the "sister" thread. Wish this truly were a real topic though. No way this will last more than a day or two.

1) HD-DVD adding another level of UN-HACKABLE Copy Protection.Blu-ray doesn't even have that yet. An "UN-HACKABLE Copy Protection" is a pipe dream.
2) Increase in HD-DVD Software Marketshare by 300%.
3) Increase in HD-DVD Hardware Marketshare pushing it past 2x the sales of PS3 plus standalone BD players.
Think rationally. There are 3.5 Million BD players out there to HD DVD's 500.000, yet BD was only able to sell "300" at less than a 2-1 market share? At that rate all HD DVD needs is HALF the anmount of BD hardware to bury BR. :D
4) ALL Blu-Ray Only companies going Neutral Nope, just one. If all go neutral, BR is dead in a month.

Note that price of HD-DVD players is irrelevant. What matters is marketshare, regardless of price.

-PieReally? Then why is the BDA so nervous? :D

avindustry

08-09-07, 06:45 PM

Disney going neutral IMO.

John Nelson

08-09-07, 06:53 PM

Universal release only combos at sd-dvd prices. No more Universal SD-DVD's ;)+1

+2

5thDanMaster

08-09-07, 06:56 PM

+2
+3

nfinity

08-09-07, 07:40 PM

Can't stay on topic? It hurts doesn't it, thinking if any of these comes true. I'm having fun reading this.

...Angelo

Pay no attention to that Blu-Ray troll...most of them are feeling the pressure and fear from how many times pronounced "dead format" and are scared as the smoke of FUD and PS3 is clearing out and they know once software sales fall to 1:1 (it was almost 4:1, then 3:1, then 2:1 so far from the beginning of PS3) it's pretty much over for BD and their "PWNED" argument won't hold water anymore. The only thing they have going is rage-filled outbursts on forums..just read around..

Special_FX_45

08-09-07, 07:59 PM

Simple. Just "ONE" of their exclusive studios going neutral. If that happens, the rest may follow.

Chris Rein

08-09-07, 07:59 PM

That the PS3's don't sell well....

Oops. Already happened.

;)

MichaelHDDVD

08-09-07, 08:00 PM

+3

+4

efxmaster

08-09-07, 08:11 PM

how about the fact that the new onkyo combo unit is 899 retail for fall and could be potentially be around 650-700 on sale potentially for christmas?

Favelle

08-09-07, 08:29 PM

Your all hoping BD will shoot itself in the foot, fact is there is increrasing demand for BD, HD-DVD needs to SELL itself, not worry about another format.

Likewise the other way around,.......OH..

kkozma

08-09-07, 08:30 PM

File that under Things that would never happen. Fox has Star Wars. BD only.

Wrong. Lucasfilms has Star Wars. Star Wars will get released on which ever format George decides to release it on.

nickoakdl

08-09-07, 08:42 PM

The general public becoming wiser

elvisizer

08-09-07, 08:43 PM

Otis Widlflower

08-09-07, 08:56 PM

+4

+5

IFF they iron out the combo disc bugs first though.

Otis Widlflower

08-09-07, 08:57 PM

how about the fact that the new onkyo combo unit is 899 retail for fall and could be potentially be around 650-700 on sale potentially for christmas?

That's still $250-300 too expensive.. $400 should buy you one of each player.

The Doctor

08-09-07, 09:36 PM

Worst nightmare means to me, something they arent expecting.

They are expecting chinese players on the cheap, hybrids and so on and so forth. What they arent expecting are all of the unforeseen risks. Patent infringement that sticks or some type of PS3 liability that cripples a feature or something.

Good point. If just one of the Patent infringement cases gets an injunction it will cripple blu.

If HD gets cheap players on the market before Christmas and then has combo's permanently replace DVD, I can see Blu being relegated as another gaming system media, like UMD.

The Doctor

08-09-07, 09:36 PM

+5

IFF they iron out the combo disc bugs first though.
+6

JayCT-34WX15

08-09-07, 09:55 PM

BR worst nightmare would be if people didn't buy their propaganda and if...

HD consumers would educate themselves about HD DVD vs. Blu Ray formats.

Period.

Joon TV

08-09-07, 10:00 PM

BR worst nightmare would be if people didn't buy their propaganda and if...

HD consumers would educate themselves about HD DVD vs. Blu Ray formats.

Period.

It is lonely on that island with so few friends to share your frustration with huh?

JayCT-34WX15

08-09-07, 10:08 PM

It is lonely on that island with so few friends to share your frustration with huh?

hahaha

Please. I am not lonely at all. As you can see, I'm in good company! After all, you are here! :)

Although, I wonder, perhaps you are the one that is lonely....after all, aren't you the one who wandered into our forum.

:)

txfilmguy

08-09-07, 10:28 PM

Wrong. Lucasfilms has Star Wars. Star Wars will get released on which ever format George decides to release it on.
I am perfectly aware of the Lucasfilm factor with the Star Wars movies. Look at my previous posts and you'll find many a time that I made the same arguement that Fox may be the studio, but George pulls the trigger. He has always waited until market saturation to release his opus. That said, it is bound to Fox, which is Blu-ray exclusive. Lucas has not given any indication of favoritism towards either format, but one can predict that if Fox happens to support the format that is ahead and reaches critical mass first, that format will see Star Wars. Anyhoo... neither format is anywhere near critical mass at this point, so it's silly to argue. Fox is Blu for now. Leave it at that.

bourke

08-09-07, 10:56 PM

BD rot.

yes - nobody yet knows how long blu-ray discs will last... could last 2 years, could last 5... then after that they could all rot!

Blumoon

08-09-07, 11:50 PM

Hmmm... I would think Blu-ray's biggest fear would be disney and or fox going neutral. While I certainly love Lionsgate, it certainly doesnt have the mass appeal and name recognition that fox or disney has.

ILJG

08-10-07, 12:24 AM

BD Nightmares:

1) Base an entire format's success on the shoulders of an overpriced game console, and having it not come even close to expectations because of said price and deplorable lack of games.

Oh, wait....

2) Rush to market something, (anything!)...like horrible looking titles and really expensive hardware to go with them so the competition can't get a leg up.

Um....

3) Rush the format to market without a finalized spec, so $1000+ players without interactivity will be obsolete, thus alienating 1st and 2nd gen adopters.

Err....

4) Bribe Blackmail Threaten Subsidize Beg Hoodwink Convince studios to use your format, just to have them release few, if any, titles of consequence due to the disarray of the format launch.

No, wait, I've got it...

5) Have loyal hardware manufacturers go neutral with hybrid players.

D'oh!

I give up!! :p :D

5thDanMaster

08-10-07, 12:46 AM

cybereality

08-10-07, 01:11 AM

http://www.cybereality.com/images/hddvd_walmart.jpg

Reginald Trent

08-10-07, 01:16 AM

I must say that everyone has good scenarios for a Sony/BDA nightmare........However, I believe their absolutely worst nightmare would be for the European Union investigation finding to force Sony/BDA to go neutral with the U.S. Justice dept following suit with fines etc, etc. Gee that would really give the blu team the blues. ;)

angelo913

08-10-07, 01:19 AM

That the PS3's don't sell well....

Oops. Already happened.

;)

BR hardware specs need redoing.

Sorry, I forgot about BR Profile 1.1; I read BR has another Profile 2.0 man BR isn't looking too good. ;)

...Angelo

angelo913

08-10-07, 01:23 AM

http://www.cybereality.com/images/hddvd_walmart.jpg

That is just Hilarious! :D :D :D

...Angelo

Reginald Trent

08-10-07, 01:28 AM

That is just Hilarious! :D :D :D

...Angelo

Yep :)

grant7311

08-10-07, 01:57 AM

Worst Scenario:

MS & Toshiba buying Warner or Disney.

vikingfan

08-10-07, 01:59 AM

http://www.cybereality.com/images/hddvd_walmart.jpg

Wow! a deal like that and only one person waiting to get in the store. The rest of the shoppers must have looked at the Amazon rankings ;)

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx?TYPE=10&SPAN=7

Joon TV

08-10-07, 02:42 AM

vikingfan, priceless....

snavem

08-10-07, 03:26 AM

I think Bluray's worst nightmare would be if one or more of their exclusive studios became format neutral. They really hype the exclusive angle and a couple studios changing would legitimize the HD DVD format for the long run. Something Bluray refuses to do.

cybereality

08-10-07, 04:10 AM

Wow! a deal like that and only one person waiting to get in the store.This better?

http://www.cybereality.com/images/hddvd_walmart2.jpg

gorthocar

08-10-07, 08:54 AM

That's easy. Blu-Ray's worst nightmare would be that all of the studios go exclusively HD DVD.

Content will be the key for the long term survival of the next gen players. Prices for players and media will go down over time.

However, present reality is almost opposite Blu-Ray's worst nightmare: only 1 major exclusive studio with HD DVD, and several major exclusive studios for Blu-Ray, with a couple doing releases for both.

Chris_TC

08-10-07, 09:06 AM

Their worst nightmare would be fairly easy to achieve.

If all HD DVD supporting studios stopped selling SD DVD versions of their movies and instead released everything on SD/HD DVD combo discs for the standard SD price this war would be over in no time.

Schils

08-10-07, 09:19 AM

RE: What Would Be Blu rays Worst Nightmare?

...losing Bill Hunt as a cheerleader! :eek: :p

Everdog

08-10-07, 09:23 AM

How about the rest of the BR fans having a complete meltdown like krinkle did yesterday.

AustinSTI

08-10-07, 10:16 AM

Wrong. Lucasfilms has Star Wars. Star Wars will get released on which ever format George decides to release it on.

Actually he's right 100%. Fox has exclusive rights to distribution. Lucasfilm would need to contract with a new distributor which is highly unlikely to happen because they've been partnered up for so long and Fox won't let such a profitable franchise go easily. Lucasfilm is the production house...

Deja Vu

08-10-07, 10:30 AM

How about the rest of the BR fans having a complete meltdown like krinkle did yesterday.

Got a link to the breakdown? I'd like to read that thread! Maybe we should have a thread rating the hardcore BD supporters as to their mental stability. A score out of 1 to 10 with 10 being a total melt down - an insane brain. :D

Cheers,

Grant

HomerJay

08-10-07, 10:43 AM

Got a link to the breakdown? I'd like to read that thread! Maybe we should have a thread rating the hardcore BD supporters as to their mental stability. A score out of 1 to 10 with 10 being a total melt down - an insane brain. :D

Cheers,

GrantI would enjoy reading this, too. I find this war to be doubly entertaining. I get what I paid for with HD DVD and the added bonus of reading about BD supporters who are in need of padded rooms...who said BD isn't entertaining...;)

alpha21

08-10-07, 10:45 AM

Goatse

08-10-07, 10:48 AM

hows ONE day black friday sale gonna win anything?? They keep very few in stock to get people in the doors, walmart kept 15 laptops they advertised for 399.

Woodshed

08-10-07, 10:50 AM

I would say BR exclusive studios all going neutral would be.

Everdog

08-10-07, 11:14 AM

Got a link to the breakdown? I'd like to read that thread! Maybe we should have a thread rating the hardcore BD supporters as to their mental stability. A score out of 1 to 10 with 10 being a total melt down - an insane brain. :D

Cheers,

Grant

It was spread out over several threads. He just kept posting the same rant everywhere claiming that people should be banned for disagreeing with him, which got him banned. I know they rolled back some threads to remove most of his posts, but then he kept creating new IDs and posting more crazy stuff. They may have then blocked his IP.

whippersnapper

08-10-07, 11:14 AM

http://www.cybereality.com/images/hddvd_walmart.jpg

This IS funny (as is the "Pigs Fly" modification to it).

I'd seen so many references to Walmart that I went to check out my local Walmart (in Maryland) and they weren't carrying EITHER Blu-ray or HD-DVD movies. Did the same thing where I'm vacationing in Indiana and this local Walmart is not carrying either format. I guess Walmart may be experimenting with certain combinations of formats in some of their stores, but I haven't seen it yet.

Anyway, thanks for the laughs with the two photoshopped Walmart photos. Glad to see folks keeping their senses of humor. :) :)

Now just where are those Nielsen reports for today?

Lee Stewart

08-10-07, 11:43 AM

Actually he's right 100%. Fox has exclusive rights to distribution. Lucasfilm would need to contract with a new distributor which is highly unlikely to happen because they've been partnered up for so long and Fox won't let such a profitable franchise go easily. Lucasfilm is the production house...

Let's put to bed FINALLY the Star Wars rumor. Lucas waited 7 YEARS to release the SW's trilogy on DVD, The population of players was 80 million!. He is not going to relase SW's on ANY format until the pop. of players is about the same.

philnerd

08-10-07, 12:16 PM

hows ONE day black friday sale gonna win anything?? They keep very few in stock to get people in the doors, walmart kept 15 laptops they advertised for 399.

Well, if every Walmart in the country sold 15 HD DVD (or BD for that matter) players in one day that would equate to nearly 60,000 units. I don't know if that will "win" anything, but that would sure be a huge boost to either side's installed player base. Not a bad haul for a single day.

8ohms

08-10-07, 12:18 PM

Man! Some of you guys are really funny. Flying pigs and all..But seriously. I think both format will be with around for a long time to come and neither is going anywhere anytime soon. And all the studios will all go neutral. Well! Maybe not Sony. So whatever title was released exclusively on HD DVD or Blu ray will be available later for the other format. But in the end it will all come down to the price of entry into the HD arena. Your typical Wal Mart/Target (the targets) consumer, with some knowledge of HD, will most likely walk in and out of a store with a $199.00 HD DVD player than a $499.00 PS3. We all know the reason why PS3 has a BD player built in. But never forget that's is first and foremost a HD game console. And kids and teenagers are the ones who play games more often than, say a 45 year old mom and dad with a 47" HD TV in the bedroom or the living room. How many of you really believe the older, more educated, consumer will actually buy a game console for such a high price just to watch HD movies???

So! While the PS3 may be a very good BD player and a entertainment hub for a Home Theater System, this will (IMO) not matter to the average consumer that the BD camps is courting, when they prefer to buy a STD DVD player from $79.99 or just might be willing to take the chance and spend $199.99 for HD player.

quantumred

08-10-07, 12:24 PM

This better?

http://www.cybereality.com/images/hddvd_walmart2.jpg

Hilarious!

Tspeer

08-10-07, 12:45 PM

Wrong. Lucasfilms has Star Wars. Star Wars will get released on which ever format George decides to release it on.

true. and everything we've heard is that star wars won't be out in HD until there's one format that's as dominant as DVD is now. So don't hold your freaking breath for that series. bah.

Even if the format war ended today, it would likely be 5 years before we got a nice star wars box set in high-def. Besides, the first 3 looks great upconverted, and the second three have so much dirt already that alot of work would need to be done (see Star Trek TOS) to make it high-def ready. In other words, it's going to be a long time.

SamwisetheBrave

08-10-07, 01:20 PM

How about the rest of the BR fans having a complete meltdown like krinkle did yesterday.
Where, how? (He's on my ignore list)

(oh, was it the math thing?)

FenixP3D

08-10-07, 01:37 PM

So, how do you explain the tanking of UMD movie sales after good games started coming out on the PSP?

The following is just my theory and theory alone, whether right or wrong it is just my observation of what's there....

Where else can you watch umd movies??? nowhere else but the psp... i don't care to watch a movie on a screen as small as the PSP's.... if i want to watch movies it'll have to be on at least a 20inch widescreen... i got other things to than carry the psp where ever i go and watch movies off a small screen making me squint until my eyes go red and blurry.... watching movies by myself isn't much fun anymore anyhow... another thing to consider is if i already have a library of SD-DVDs, why should I shell out additional income on the same movies on umd just so i can watch on the psp...
you can't honestly really enjoy watching a umd movie on a psp with more than 1 person can you.... DVD's are the more common medium with more common universal hardware to play them spread out almost everywhere... look how the MiniDisc died off... why pay so much more such a proprietary format that is less flexible and requires special equipment (sony branded well equipped electronics only) to read or write to it, when you could pay pennies on the dollar for cd-r's at the time....

my cousin has a psp and bought several UMD movies but could never enjoy it with a crowd of friends cause only one set of eyes and ears could enjoy such... i told him, we have those movies in dvd, why not just come over and watch and laugh with us on the big screen??

hope this all makes sense as to one reason why UMD's tanked....

txfilmguy

08-10-07, 01:50 PM

Movies on UMD were just a bad idea. Plain and simple. Pay a premium price for a disc with 1/4 the resolution of DVD (and claim it's DVD quality) with only stereo sound and minimal extras... that you can only play on a handheld device that doesn't link to a TV? No thanks. I bought a PSP. It is strictly a gaming machine. My PS3 on the other hand is an entertainment hub in my home theater. CD's, DVD's, SACD's, games and Blu-rays and digital meda all get much loving from me there.

bigbrain28

08-10-07, 04:16 PM

Wow! a deal like that and only one person waiting to get in the store. The rest of the shoppers must have looked at the Amazon rankings ;)

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx?TYPE=10&SPAN=7

I might be on crack, but if you look closely at these graphs (see Link) the HIGHER numbers on the left are nearer to the baseline. And every graph i ran showed HD DVD ahead... Am I right?

Rainier2

08-10-07, 04:56 PM

universal publishing "jurassic park 1 +2", the "back to the future trilogy" and "E.T.". those titles could really give a pump to HD DVD and create positive momentum

Ya, that would be pretty good and is a pretty realistic goal.

JAG1977

08-10-07, 05:35 PM

Then if you really don't care or worry about HD DVD, you would remain content and above our petty HD DVD forum, you would stay in the BR forum and enjoy the vast emptiness and useless space that is BD50. :D

My first player was a HD-DVD A1, rather than going dual format I went all in with Blu-ray and have since bought a Samsung and PS3.

Thats lost business for HD-DVD, other than Hot Fuzz and Bourne there isn't musch I crave on HD-DVD, yet I'm guessing many who are HD-DVD exclusive will be yearning for Spiderman, POTC, CARS, Rattouilee (sp) etc.

HD-DVD players are now affordable even as an impulse purchase, but HD-DVD doesn't have much on the horizon that will make people jump.

Rather than hoping Blu-ray implodes, explain how HD-DVD can sell itself to the public.

This thread so far is a series of posts grasping at staws!

I Superman I

08-10-07, 06:19 PM

Spider-Man has a list price of $49.99, it will probally sell 1/2 the amount of copies Knocked Up will sell on HD-DVD, which I expect will be a huge seller.

The best thing HD-DVD could do is put out a $199 Walmart player, and pair it with Universal flooding Combo Discs at affordable prices and not releaseing the DVD counterpart. If they did this with knocked up, the whole software numbers in general just for units sold would be just insane, I could easily see walking into Walmart or Best Buy and seeing only the HD-DVD combo for Knocked up availible, and with the affordable price point set, it would automatially sell, especially if advertised clearly as HD and DVD on the same disc, people would buy it, and would be interested in player prices.

The Price reduction of say the 2nd gen players once the 3rd gen players could also be huge, getting that A2 down to 200-250 would sell alot of units aswell.

Really I think getting standalone prices low enough for high adoption is the real key. Just becuase Warner and Paramount arn't exclusive does not mean they are not availible, and most consumers would be perfectly fine buying a $150-200 HD-DVD player to get the exact same content ( and with better interactive features ) then having to pay $500+ for the same content on BD. That initiation fee right there to get started means everything. Aswell as the fact that Standalone players insure software sales. These players are being baught with the intent of software purchases, not games.

Say Walmart is able to get out a cheap HD-DVD player, say it's similar to Fu-Yan talks and they get 1million, that would be absolutly enormous for HD-DVD. That is not only the hardware install base, but it would be a garenteed of an equal number in software sales, each person is buying that player for HD movies, and eac person would be expect to buy at least one, that would put HD-dVD software sales well ahead of BD software in just a day, and with new releases the BD versions would pale in comparison to HD-DVD's. Look at how things are right now, including the PS3 BD outnumbers HD-DVD at what margin on hardware? 5:1? but can barley keep a 2:1 in software, if affordable players are announced and HD-DVD can even get half the hardware base of BD it will destroy it in software sales, and this is what will matter, and will cuase neutrality for studios. Which will continue an upward future for HD-DVD.

loganhunter2002

08-10-07, 06:20 PM

My first player was a HD-DVD A1, rather than going dual format I went all in with Blu-ray and have since bought a Samsung and PS3.

Thats lost business for HD-DVD, other than Hot Fuzz and Bourne there isn't musch I crave on HD-DVD, yet I'm guessing many who are HD-DVD exclusive will be yearning for Spiderman, POTC, CARS, Rattouilee (sp) etc.

HD-DVD players are now affordable even as an impulse purchase, but HD-DVD doesn't have much on the horizon that will make people jump.

Rather than hoping Blu-ray implodes, explain how HD-DVD can sell itself to the public.

This thread so far is a series of posts grasping at staws!

Your lost for not going dual format. At least people who have both formats can enjoy all the glory.

vikingfan

08-10-07, 06:24 PM

I might be on crack, but if you look closely at these graphs (see Link) the HIGHER numbers on the left are nearer to the baseline. And every graph i ran showed HD DVD ahead... Am I right?

Your not on crack, but your not right either. The closer to 0 the higher your average ranking would be. Right now the titles in the top 10 for BD rank 10,40,82,97,99,144,169,210,256 and 319 for an average rank of 142 (1426 div by 10)

HD DVD titles in the top 10 rank 18,27,109,202,251,255,331,348 and 415
for an average rank of 207 ( 2077 div by 10)

cybereality

08-10-07, 06:24 PM

I'm guessing many who are HD-DVD exclusive will be yearning for Spiderman, POTC, CARS, Rattouilee (sp) etc.Well you guessed wrong, my friend. I wouldn't watch any of those movies if you *paid* me. In fact, I think it is actually a *feature* for HD DVD players to be spared from the bubblegum hollywood "lacklusters" that so plague modern cinema. McDonald's sure does sell a lot of hamburgers, doesn't mean they taste any good.

HD DVD, its the high-brow choice!

vikingfan

08-10-07, 06:26 PM

Well you guessed wrong, my friend. I wouldn't watch any of those movies if you *paid* me. In fact, I think it is actually a *feature* for HD DVD players to be spared from the bubblegum hollywood "lacklusters" that so plague modern cinema. McDonald's sure does sell a lot of hamburgers, doesn't mean they taste any good.

HD DVD, its the high-brow choice!

Chuck and Larry is highbrow :D

nfinity

08-10-07, 06:48 PM

;) My first player was a HD-DVD A1, rather than going dual format I went all in with Blu-ray and have since bought a Samsung and PS3.

Thats lost business for HD-DVD, other than Hot Fuzz and Bourne there isn't musch I crave on HD-DVD, yet I'm guessing many who are HD-DVD exclusive will be yearning for Spiderman, POTC, CARS, Rattouilee (sp) etc.

HD-DVD players are now affordable even as an impulse purchase, but HD-DVD doesn't have much on the horizon that will make people jump.

Rather than hoping Blu-ray implodes, explain how HD-DVD can sell itself to the public.

This thread so far is a series of posts grasping at staws!

It's funny how Blu-Ray people keep including titles that are not even out yet.

But let's see..Spiderman and POTC right now are the only titles Blu-heads are yelling about..

I don't see how these hits are not worth your attention. And these are only those "blockbuster" type of movies that are currently available only to HD DVD.

Batman Begins, Matrix Trilogy, Meet the Folkers 1/2, Heroes: Season One , Hot Fuzz, Bourne Trilogy, Smokin' Aces, Knocked Up, The Fast & The Furious trilogy, King Kong, Serenity, Pitch Black and Chronicles of Riddick, The Mummy 1/2 etc etc

Universal has an incredible list of movies that are yet to come out on HD DVD and some really great movies for people who appreciate GREAT movies not just (wham bam smoke and guns and superheros) like:

Caddyshack, Brokeback Mountain, Being John Malkovich, Casino, Cinderella Man, The Deer Hunter, Children of Men, The Game, The Good Shepard etc etc.

These are more movies for adults and do not cater to "gamer" crowd, but in order for a format to become mainstream it needs to cover EVERYONE, not just gamers.

Not that I'm trying to pursade you or anything. ;)

EatingPie

08-10-07, 06:55 PM

Wow. Most of this has become a "rag on Blu-Ray" thread. References to the PS3 selling badly. The BD Group lieing, cheating and bribing. The BD Group Propoganda.

I believe the OP said "be serious." Saying the BD Group's "lieing, cheating, bribing" and using "propoganda" and (implying) the HD-DVD Group isn't doing the same? That's serious?

1) HD-DVD adding another level of UN-HACKABLE Copy Protection.
2) Increase in HD-DVD Software Marketshare by 300%.
3) Increase in HD-DVD Hardware Marketshare pushing it past 2x the sales of PS3 plus standalone BD players.
4) ALL Blu-Ray Only companies going Neutral

Note that price of HD-DVD players is irrelevant. What matters is marketshare, regardless of price.

Also, every single studio listed Copy Protection as their #1 requirement for a DVD successor. Every. Single. Studio. Regardless of how you or I feel about copy protection, I'm talking about the studios -- you know, the guys who aren't releasing Jaws and Jurrasic Park -- and new copy protection would be a windfall for HD-DVD after the AACS hack.

-Pie
Blu-ray doesn't even have that yet. An "UN-HACKABLE Copy Protection" is a pipe dream.

Think rationally. There are 3.5 Million BD players out there to HD DVD's 500.000, yet BD was only able to sell "300" at less than a 2-1 market share? At that rate all HD DVD needs is HALF the anmount of BD hardware to bury BR. :D
Nope, just one. If all go neutral, BR is dead in a month.

Really? Then why is the BDA so nervous? :D

Case in point: Where is the "serious" response here? The BDA is "nervous"? I cite software adoption rates and am countered with the 300 "selling 2-1" in favor of Blu-Ray? I explain why added copy protection WOULD BE a format killer, and I get "it's a pipe dream"?

Copy Protection can win the format war. If you don't understand that, you don't understand the industry. I do realize "UN-HACKABLE" isn't realistic, but I was citing a "nightmare" scenario -- one that would win the war immediately.

Adoption rates swinging RADICALLY in favor of HD-DVD, will also win the format war. Not halving (sheesh). Not matching. Not eeking out. Not even doubling -- otherwise the war would be over now... That's how it stands right now -- look at the cited 300 disk... Two-to-One in FAVOR of Blu-Ray, and the format war continues with no clear winner. (And note that the 300 disk was cited as a counter to my statements.)

I just don't see how anyone believes that selling LESS HD-DVD players than BD players will win the war at all. Realistically?

I get the impression my post was taken as "anti-HD-DVD" and treated thusly. No. I made statements about what would win the war... and they apply equally to the BD side of things. They're not easy to swallow, but I challenge anyone to give me a serious counter.

-Pie

tusloj

08-10-07, 06:59 PM

haha this place is full of unsecured idiots.

Otis Widlflower

08-10-07, 07:28 PM

Lucasfilm would need to contract with a new distributor which is highly unlikely to happen because they've been partnered up for so long and Fox won't let such a profitable franchise go easily..

In other words, Lucas says "I want _everyone_ to be able to watch my films on any format", and Fox says "Yes sir!!"

I posit that Fox's interest in the sales of _Star Wars_ is more important than any 'loyalty' to formats. Then again, I doubt Lucas is breathing down any necks at this point...

Sean_O

08-10-07, 08:05 PM

unsecured

They aren't secured against loss?

Who is the idiot again?

h0mi

08-10-07, 08:50 PM

Bluray's worst nightmares? Most of these are unrealistic but one can hope.

TL-51 becomes reality and is backwards compatible with firmware upgrades
QL-68 becomes reality and is backwards compatible with firmware upgrades (quad layer)
Single sided, DVD9-HD34 combo discs come to fruition, & are troublefree
HD-DVD is able to bump up bandwidth to 1.5x without compatibility issues on all disc formats (single layer, dual, etc.)

BD+ is cracked
BDMark is cracked or otherwise workarounds are discovered
ps3 firmware or hardware is sufficiently hacked or cracked to allow rampant piracy of protected bluray discs
BD+ protection/countermeasures on certain titles bricks players, resulting in lawsuits

The VMD format is used by some Bluray exclusive studios, and HD-DVD is upgraded to support this format.

Ok that's on the hardware side

Warner, Disney and/or Fox abandons Bluray
Disney and/or Fox goes Neutral
Universal releases dominate the 2008 movie charts and Sony releases fail to crack the top 20.

h0mi

08-10-07, 08:57 PM

hows ONE day black friday sale gonna win anything?? They keep very few in stock to get people in the doors, walmart kept 15 laptops they advertised for 399.

Walmart put an HDTV on sale last year and it had a tremendous impact on the marketplace for HDTVs, sparking a price war that's caused a lot of retailers to lose a ton of money or close up shops (tweeter, compusa) Tthe fact that they had a handful of these TVS (or players) wouldn't matter- best buy et al are going to match the price (or come very close) so suddenly every walmart AND best buy AND circuit city AND sears AND kmart AND target have ~15 HD-DVD players for $89-129. And sell them. Plus discs, plus "ok they're out of the $89 player but this one's $120/150/170".

ResOGlas

08-10-07, 09:01 PM

Worst for Blu?

If combo discs always worked properly and weren't ridiculously overpriced.

gilham1

08-10-07, 09:08 PM

One thing.....more games for ps3, thats it.They have played this very smart if you ask me .

gluvhand

08-10-07, 09:08 PM

Worst for Blu?

If combo discs always worked properly and weren't ridiculously overpriced.

Ouch. Too true.

JaylisJayP

08-10-07, 09:25 PM

I can agree with this. However, before the good games started being released for the PSP, UMD movie sales were huge. They were so huge that Sony issued a report claiming that UMD movie sales would account for 60% of all PSP media. Of course, we all know what happened soon afterwards. This clearly indicates that many people did enjoy watching $20+ movies on a small screen, but that their preferences soon changed.

link (http://www.pspworld.com/sony-psp/umd-movies/umd-sales-strong-sony-to-boost-production-001384.php)

I think all that indicates is that like with most things...people are drawn to the novelty of something new and "cool." And then when they realized that they were expensive and impractical, they stopped buying them.

quantumred

08-10-07, 09:52 PM

Blu Rays worst nightmare is the clock. Every day HD-DVD standalones outsell BR standalones. When the G3 players hit, it will be even worse. And let's not even talk about inexpensive Chinese players. Things have been set in motion that cannot be undone.

As Chris Berman would say, TICK..tick.tick.tick..TICK

fistofsouth

08-10-07, 10:10 PM

Thats lost business for HD-DVD, other than Hot Fuzz and Bourne there isn't musch I crave on HD-DVD, yet I'm guessing many who are HD-DVD exclusive will be yearning for Spiderman, POTC, CARS, Rattouilee (sp) etc.

Nope. There isn't one film listed there with a target audience beyond puberty. Exclusives like The Usual Suspects would attract that average HD DVD supporter, but they are few and far between on Blu-ray and that's why we are HD DVD supporters to begin with.

BACK ON TOPIC: All HD DVD needs to do to give Sony nightmares is what they have been doing: keep selling hardware.

kowhite

08-10-07, 10:21 PM

I think all that indicates is that like with most things...people are drawn to the novelty of something new and "cool." And then when they realized that they were expensive and impractical, they stopped buying them.

I would imagine so, since I doubt it was the "good" games that caused sales to drop off. Since well, to date, the PSP still doesn't have good games.

cybereality

08-10-07, 10:23 PM

I challenge anyone to give me a serious counter.http://www.cybereality.com/images/hddvd_knockout.jpg

EyeCrave

08-10-07, 10:39 PM

The Digital Bits closes its doors ;)

5thDanMaster

08-10-07, 11:29 PM

My first player was a HD-DVD A1, rather than going dual format I went all in with Blu-ray and have since bought a Samsung and PS3.

Thats lost business for HD-DVD, other than Hot Fuzz and Bourne there isn't musch I crave on HD-DVD, yet I'm guessing many who are HD-DVD exclusive will be yearning for Spiderman, POTC, CARS, Rattouilee (sp) etc.

HD-DVD players are now affordable even as an impulse purchase, but HD-DVD doesn't have much on the horizon that will make people jump.

Rather than hoping Blu-ray implodes, explain how HD-DVD can sell itself to the public.

This thread so far is a series of posts grasping at staws!
I was going to respond to your post, but I just can't seem to hear above all that echo and static noise caused by the BD50's empty, and useless space. :p

nfinity

08-11-07, 12:51 AM

...

LOL, That was awesome..

Here I made a bit nicer version for when we need an HDDVD knock-out.. :)

http://www.designbyinfinity.com/internet/hddvdcounter.png

Joon TV

08-11-07, 01:05 AM

I was going to respond to your post, but I just can't seem to hear above all that echo and static noise caused by the BD50's empty, and useless space. :p

No you were probably having a hard time hearing when someone is talking down to you cause there is such a big gap between the top and the bottom.....How's the weather down there by the way? It is nice a sunny up here, sorry about the shadow that BD has casted, probably makes it a bit cold down there in the dark.....

alfbinet

08-11-07, 01:28 AM

oliverjg

08-11-07, 01:43 AM

...

Copy Protection can win the format war. If you don't understand that, you don't understand the industry. I do realize "UN-HACKABLE" isn't realistic, but I was citing a "nightmare" scenario -- one that would win the war immediately.

Adoption rates swinging RADICALLY in favor of HD-DVD, will also win the format war. Not halving (sheesh). Not matching. Not eeking out. Not even doubling -- otherwise the war would be over now... That's how it stands right now -- look at the cited 300 disk... Two-to-One in FAVOR of Blu-Ray, and the format war continues with no clear winner. (And note that the 300 disk was cited as a counter to my statements.)

I just don't see how anyone believes that selling LESS HD-DVD players than BD players will win the war at all. Realistically?

...

some (not all) consumers will buy one format instead of another because it has less copy protection. however, some (not all) studios don't want to sell to those customers. how does copy protection necessarily win the war? the sword cuts in both directions. in the case of dvd (basically no protection) vs. hdm, clearly studios are currently following the money and giving consumers dvd.

to win you can't just stay ahead with the same sales ratio and you can't loose ground. bd folks were claiming 3:1 and 4:1 sales advantage in q1 now they seem happy with less then 2:1 on the biggest title yet on hdm. if the same type of market share shift continues in q3, q4, ... bd has lost already and it is just a matter of time. the definition of having won is an overwhelming market share advantage. IMO it makes little sense to say overwhelming market share is the way to win when it is the definition of having won. ie. duh.

you can win with less players if the opposing side has lower attach rates.

Deja Vu

08-11-07, 11:42 AM

I started this thread.

My thoughts would be for Universal to use the utmost care, to release a highly anticipated remastered title or well received current film to be released on HD DVD and DVD combo only at SD prices or a buck or two more. I think this would at least start few "phones" ringing, no matter what time of day or night. Getting software into peoples homes that have bought an inexpensive DVD player that just happens to play "HD DVDs." That would be a nightmare.

There must be a reason for these combos?

I agree! The Bourne Ultimatum on HD DVD only (no DVD release) would tell us once and for all whether or not the combo is really a WMD for HD DVD. I think greed will stop this from happening (studio greed - it's O.K. for Toshiba to cut hardware prices to drive software, but it's not O.K. to cut software prices to drive hardware?). If the combo isn't more effectively used (asset rather than a liability) then I don't think HD DVD will be anything more than a niche within a niche product at best. Sony is intent on shutting down HD DVD's distribution network and is succeeding little by little. The combo not only counters this but hammers BD with the massive power of DVD! I'll bet the BD group is wondering if they will be able to dodge the combo bullet. I don't think they have anything to worry about - there's no real vision in the HD DVD promotional group.

Cheers,

Grant

THE DU3C3

08-11-07, 12:45 PM

If the combo disks continue to be released then they need to have a cheaper price point. $30-$34 for a combo is a rip-off. J6P isn't going to drop that much on a combo disk when he can either buy the DVD for less than half that amount or get the BD version for $25. The combo is useless when the studios continue to release the SD-DVD version alongside the HD-DVD combo. The only advantage to the combo for HD-DVD owners is that we have the ability to play our movie in any old DVD player. It all comes down to money. If HD-DVD is going to win it must continue to be the lowest price option in hardware and more importantly software.

txfilmguy

08-11-07, 01:50 PM

I don't believe combo discs are an answer to anything. Unless they are released as a bonus feature on the standard DVD editions, they don't benefit anybody.

JAG1977

08-11-07, 01:51 PM

I was going to respond to your post, but I just can't seem to hear above all that echo and static noise caused by the BD50's empty, and useless space. :p

Don't worry, in your own little way you've confirmed what I already believed, HD-DVD is out of ammunition.

BrandonJF

08-11-07, 03:07 PM

I was going to respond to your post, but I just can't seem to hear above all that echo and static noise caused by the BD50's empty, and useless space. :p

Only on WB titles since WB encodes to the lowest common denominator (HD-DVD). Well, at least they finally did learn that they can use that space with the upcoming Smallville release. They somehow needed one less disc for the Blu-Ray version. I really can't believe some of you can make these desperate arguments that somehow having more space is "bad" or "unnecessary". If they announced a 50GB HD-DVD disc tomorrow, you'd all be going nuts.

The echo and static you're hearing is more likely from trying to play a BD50 in your HD-DVD drive. No matter how hard you try, it's not going to work. I can see the confusion, though, since some HD-DVD combos will offer the same result as sticking a Blu-Ray disc in your player (neither work).

ECH

08-11-07, 03:13 PM

What Would Be Blu rays Worst Nightmare?
More BD-j titles?

dysfunction26

08-11-07, 03:18 PM

As far as software sales, and positioning of HD DVD titles in Blu ray exclusive DVD only shops? This is a honest question Mods.

When we see $149 MSRP Chinese players in Wal-mart in November/December. That will be Sony's worst nightmare. The sales of the PS3 are a nightmare as well. The Wii has almost passed the X-Box sales in less than half the time. The Wii is putting a hurt on the PS3.

darinp2

08-11-07, 03:18 PM

I think greed will stop this from happening (studio greed - it's O.K. for Toshiba to cut hardware prices to drive software, but it's not O.K. to cut software prices to drive hardware?).As far as "greed" employees get paychecks to look out for the good of the companies paying them, so I would put in that responsibility would be a more appropriate way to describe why a company employee is unlikely to try to hurt his own company by doing something like this. If Universal was getting more of the payoff at the end it would make more sense for them to do something like this that would be a money loser on its own compared to releasing for both. But if Toshiba wants it bad enough they can offer to pay Universal to do it. From what Craig Kornblau said, he seems open to doing deals that help Universal (part of what he gets paid for), so if Toshiba or Microsoft want it done bad enough, they could probably get it done. Although replicating close to 10 million combos at this point might take a lot of investment and planning also.

--Darin

darinp2

08-11-07, 03:42 PM

Don't worry, in your own little way you've confirmed what I already believed, HD-DVD is out of ammunition.Would it make any difference if you found out you were talking to "Oshodi", but about 4 logins later after not only getting banned previously, but having all posts deleted?

--Darin

Deja Vu

08-11-07, 03:56 PM

As far as "greed" employees get paychecks to look out for the good of the companies paying them, so I would put in that responsibility would be a more appropriate way to describe why a company employee is unlikely to try to hurt his own company by doing something like this. If Universal was getting more of the payoff at the end it would make more sense for them to do something like this that would be a money loser on its own compared to releasing for both. But if Toshiba wants it bad enough they can offer to pay Universal to do it. From what Craig Kornblau said, he seems open to doing deals that help Universal (part of what he gets paid for), so if Toshiba or Microsoft want it done bad enough, they could probably get it done. Although replicating close to 10 million combos at this point might take a lot of investment and planning also.

--Darin

A decision such as this comes from the top not from an "employee". What's the risk factor in releasing one big title on a HD DVD combo (assuming they've worked all the bugs out) since according to Universal's president Universal is being subsidized with respect to HD DVD. "Money loser" or do you mean less profit - two completely different things I'd say. Would Universal lose money if the Bourne Ultimatum was released as an HD DVD combo only priced a few dollars more than a standard DVD? I doubt it - it may not make the same "profit" as a DVD release and an HD DVD release, but then again you'd need to factor in the benifit to HD DVD a combo only release could have for the format. It might just surprise everyone and make more money - you'll never know if you don't try. You once asked why Universal should do something to drive sales for Toshiba players. I would think player sales also drive software sales which benefit Universal - one supports the other. I thought it was the risk takers that drove a free market economy - if everyone is afraid of losing his/her job for being innovative and thinking out of the box then that business is just going to stagnate. Limit the risk and give it a try. What's HD DVD got to lose? Really nothing at this point and maybe everything to gain.

Hey, Darin how about some positive suggestions for HD DVD. Lots of criticism of the format, and some of it deserved, but I've yet to hear anything positive from you - why's that?

Cheers,

Grant

5thDanMaster

08-11-07, 04:07 PM

Would it make any difference if you found out you were talking to "Oshodi", but about 4 logins later after not only getting banned previously, but having all posts deleted?

--Darin

I have no idea why you spend all of your time in the "dead" HD DVD forum Mr. Blu-ray advocate. You used to be a smart and intelligent arguementator, now you have degenerated to name-calling, threatening members who disagree with you, and blackmailing members. Must be the fear of turning your $1200 BD player into a door stop. :p
Your threats are old and tired frankly. :p

darinp2

08-11-07, 04:11 PM

A decision such as this comes from the top not from an "employee".Those people are employees whether you want to consider them that or not and you know as well as I do that your attempt at misdirection there doesn't even address the, "get paychecks to look out for the good of the companies paying them" at all.
What's the risk factor in releasing one big title on a HD DVD combo (assuming they've worked all the bugs out) since according to Universal's president Universal is being subsidized with respect to HD DVD. "Money loser" or do you mean less profit - two completely different things I'd say.I don't consider it much different when it is money loser compared to a smarter decision. There is risk and there is reward. You seem to want Universal to take risk (although I'm not sure I would even call it that as it isn't so much risk as just less money), but then Toshiba gets most of the reward. Why do you think Universal should spend the money to do something like this? Do you honestly believe that it is in their best interest, or is it because you want them to do it to help HD DVD? Of course there are things they will do to help their side win, but it is a matter of degrees. I doubt they want HD DVD to win so badly that they will take your suggestion with the biggest movie they've had in close to 2 years.
Hey, Darin how about some positive suggestions for HD DVD. Lots of criticism of the format, and some of it deserved, but I've yet to hear anything positive from you - why's that?I've given suggestions to the HD DVD camp before, but after some sleazy stuff I've seen behind the scenes, I'm not as free with my suggestions for things they can do to try to win anymore. If I thought your suggestion was a smart business move for Universal I would say so though. I don't think it is unless Toshiba or Microsoft finance it. I know Toshiba and Microsoft want Universal to pull a heavy load to help them, but it needs to be in Universal's best interest. Universal has shown that they are willing to release a lot of content, but they haven't even shown they are willing to support sale prices on their discs to try to move hardware at this point. And at this point I would like to see one format be the end of CES 2008 and no matter which side a person prefers, IMO if they look at it intelligently I think it will be obvious to them that there is little the HD DVD camp can do to end this war anytime soon. Sony alone would hold out for quite a while. On the other hand, if the HD DVD camp adds 51GB discs with 1.5x spin rate and ups their bandwidth limitations, maybe I'll start passing ideas I think of to them.

--Darin

CochiseGuy

08-11-07, 04:14 PM

What Would Be Blu rays Worst Nightmare?

How 'bout a couple -

- Universal announcing it will stop releasing on DVD for new Day & Date releases - only HD DVD / DVD combos.

- Fox announcing it will be re-introducing a "Divix style" Pay Per View / Time Limited Viewing via BD+.

- BD+ starts bricking legit players. :eek:

RainZagrada

08-11-07, 05:07 PM

Sony selling a HD-DVD add-on for the PS3

Toshiba sending a team of super-ninjas to the Blu Ray camp and eliminating the Blu Ray team with extreme prejudice

Apple includes a HD DVD drive in the next line up of Mac computers

All the studios decide to start releasing everything in Laserdisc and say to hell with HD DVD and Blu Ray

Three Words: Alf on HD-DVD

King Kong gets revived by scientist and he climbs the Sony building and eat the Sony CEO. game over.

quantumred

08-11-07, 06:00 PM

Worst BR nightmares:

1) The EU Antitrust Investigators narrow their probe to Blu Ray
http://www.videobusiness.com/index.asp?layout=article&articleid=CA6458096

2) Blu Ray disks start to rot (more than they already do)
http://www.engadget.com/2007/06/16/blu-ray-disc-coatings-starting-to-rot/
http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/hd-dvd-loves-this/blu+ray-disc-rot-269554.php

3) Washington Post publishes an article indicating HD DVD alive and well
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/09/AR2007080900775.html

4) HD DVD standalones outsell BR standalones by a wide margin
http://img235.imageshack.us/img235/903/amazonplayerso8.png

5) Toshiba announces G3 players - Amazon trumpets them as top pick for holidays:
http://hd.broadcastnewsroom.com/articles/viewarticle.jsp?id=170313

Wait a minute, all of these nightmares for BR have already come true!! YIKES!!

5thDanMaster

08-11-07, 07:13 PM

bassmonkeee

08-11-07, 08:59 PM

Excellent post, 5 Stars. :) :) :)

Of course, considering that the both disc rot articles reference one thread here on AVS (that pretty much confirmed quickly that the disc rot was limited to a single batch from a single pressing plant), and the standalones aren't the only Blu-Ray player when it comes to total numbers (you might of heard of the Playstation 3), the post isn't quite as impressive as it would like to be.

But, by all means, don't let that get in the way of the little rose-colored circle jerk...

Here's my contribution to this wishful thinking thread.

Blu-Ray's worst nightmare? A single exclusive studio....

You kids have fun!

aod

08-11-07, 09:09 PM

alfbinet

08-11-07, 09:13 PM

fistofsouth

08-11-07, 09:20 PM

Of course, considering that the both disc rot articles reference one thread here on AVS (that pretty much confirmed quickly that the disc rot was limited to a single batch from a single pressing plant), and the standalones aren't the only Blu-Ray player when it comes to total numbers (you might of heard of the Playstation 3), the post isn't quite as impressive as it would like to be.

But, by all means, don't let that get in the way of the little rose-colored circle jerk...

Here's my contribution to this wishful thinking thread.

Blu-Ray's worst nightmare? A single exclusive studio....

You kids have fun!

Yes we've heard of the PS3. We also heard that over 60% of those PS3 owners don't know their system plays BDs:
PS3 users is real edumicated (http://games.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/08/09/1925237&from=rss)

You can expect more instances of Blu-rot. Many companies have tried protective coatings in the past and they have failed and based on what we know there is little reason to believe BD will be any different. I mean with HD DVD we have the 10 year history of DVD to fall back on; we know that those disks are not prone to laser-rot or separation. BD has had a year and we already have reports of Blu-rot, I wonder how those BDs will work in 10 years? Will they rot? Will they separate? The simple answer is that no one knows.

Interesting that you avoided mentioning the anti-trust issue or any of the other valid points that were made.

5thDanMaster

08-11-07, 09:38 PM

Yes we've heard of the PS3. We also heard that over 60% of those PS3 owners don't know their system plays BDs:
PSs users is real edumicated (http://games.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/08/09/1925237&from=rss)

You can expect more instances of Blu-rot. Many companies have tried protective coatings in the past and they have failed and based on what we know there is little reason to believe BD will be any different. I mean with HD DVD we have the 10 year history of DVD to fall back on; we know that those disks are not prone to laser-rot or separation. BD has had a year and we already have reports of Blu-rot, I wonder how those BDs will work in 10 years? Will they rot? Will they separate? The simple answer is that no one knows.

Interesting that you avoided mentioning the anti-trust issue or any of the other valid points that were made.
Funny. :D

EatingPie

08-13-07, 02:18 PM

some (not all) consumers will buy one format instead of another because it has less copy protection. however, some (not all) studios don't want to sell to those customers. how does copy protection necessarily win the war? the sword cuts in both directions. in the case of dvd (basically no protection) vs. hdm, clearly studios are currently following the money and giving consumers dvd.

to win you can't just stay ahead with the same sales ratio and you can't loose ground. bd folks were claiming 3:1 and 4:1 sales advantage in q1 now they seem happy with less then 2:1 on the biggest title yet on hdm. if the same type of market share shift continues in q3, q4, ... bd has lost already and it is just a matter of time. the definition of having won is an overwhelming market share advantage. IMO it makes little sense to say overwhelming market share is the way to win when it is the definition of having won. ie. duh.

you can win with less players if the opposing side has lower attach rates.

I've stated why copy protection is important... here goes again.

Studios consider Copy Protection the #1 most important factor of the "next gen" optical format. That comes from Widescreen Review reporting on the DVD group right around the time Sony broke off and formed the BDA. Every studio in the DVD group put copy protection as their number one concern.

If one format had unhackable copy protection, every studio would jump there. Then the "choice" for consumers becomes elementary... since there'd be only one format with movies being released.

That's winning the war from the studio side. The OTHER side of things is the consumer side. Winning the war by massive sales. That's why I cited big sales numbers as being the other "worse nightmare."

And one again, 2:1 sales in favor of Blu-Ray on one title is not a convincing argument for big HD-DVD numbers. Not convincing at all... to the point that I must ask... are you really serious?

-Pie