JeffY
08-21-07, 06:24 AM
We all know that Paramount was originally an HD DVD exclusive company and were swayed by DBA to go neutral. For what ever reason Warner also bought this argument but Universal didn’t and remained HD DVD exclusive.
At the time of this announcement everything was going well for Blu Ray, massive CE support and now they had nearly all the major studios behind them. The PS3 was due to be released and was destined to sell by the millions.
Perhaps the biggest stumbling block for Blu Ray studio support was BD replication, not just higher per disc costs and potentially much greater setup costs too. This is where Sony steps in again, they already had to bare the brunt of all the setup costs to make games discs for the PS3, making a few extra discs for Paramount and Warner was no big deal.
So what has happened in the last year or so?
Blu Ray gets released in mid 2006 without the much anticipated PS3, initial response is poor. Sony blame Samsung‘s player (the only player at this stage). Later it is confirmed that it was in fact poor transfers to blame and while the Samsung had a few issues it is actually quite a good player and stands up well against today’s efforts.
Eventually the PS3 is released towards the end of the year in the US and Japan, but not Europe. Sales are initially OK but soon drop off because of the high cost and lack of software. In March 07 the PS3 is released in Europe but apart from the initial week sales have dropped off considerably.
The much touted CE support hasn’t really materialised. Basic, over prised players have sold very poorly and the return of investment simply isn’t there. A CE company would be lucky to sell 20’000 Blu Ray players. Hardly enough to crawl any of the R&D costs back.
Fox and MGM pull Blu Ray support after the copy protection gets hacked.
It emerges that the current Blu Ray players won’t be able to support new BDJ interactive features, making all players bar the PS3 obsolete in the near future.
In the mean time HD DVD had to good release, yes it has had some set backs like the delay of the 2nd gen players and issues with combo disc compatibility, slowly but surely Toshiba and HD DVD have worked through these issues. Player development hasn’t halted and 3rd gen players are due out by the end of the year, at the same time they have brought down the price of the basic player from $499 to $299.
Attachment rates on HD DVD remain high to the extent that despite being 10 – 1 down in the player count they are only 2 – 1 down in software. HD DVD players sell 5 times more software the Blu Ray players.
So why has Paramount and Dreamworks gone HD DVD exclusive? Surely they were bought off by Microsoft or Toshiba? Well we know Microsoft didn’t do it. I wouldn’t be so sure Toshiba did either. Maybe they had a deal with Blu Ray that has just expired?
The only way Blu Ray can reach mass market quickly is via the PS3 which means very low attach rates. HD DVD on the other hand already has cheap standalone players that are selling very well compared to Blu Ray. The Chinese having chosen a variant of HD DVD for there own market are already well positioned to manufacturer and sell even cheaper HD DVD players. Crucially as the number of discs being made goes up considerably, HD DVD replication costs are still much cheaper and have no capacity issues.
Toshiba are not a threat or competitor to Paramount, Sony are. I’m sure this was part of the equation. It suites Paramount more that the DVD forums backed HD DVD format wins rather than the rogue format pushed by Sony.
At the time of this announcement everything was going well for Blu Ray, massive CE support and now they had nearly all the major studios behind them. The PS3 was due to be released and was destined to sell by the millions.
Perhaps the biggest stumbling block for Blu Ray studio support was BD replication, not just higher per disc costs and potentially much greater setup costs too. This is where Sony steps in again, they already had to bare the brunt of all the setup costs to make games discs for the PS3, making a few extra discs for Paramount and Warner was no big deal.
So what has happened in the last year or so?
Blu Ray gets released in mid 2006 without the much anticipated PS3, initial response is poor. Sony blame Samsung‘s player (the only player at this stage). Later it is confirmed that it was in fact poor transfers to blame and while the Samsung had a few issues it is actually quite a good player and stands up well against today’s efforts.
Eventually the PS3 is released towards the end of the year in the US and Japan, but not Europe. Sales are initially OK but soon drop off because of the high cost and lack of software. In March 07 the PS3 is released in Europe but apart from the initial week sales have dropped off considerably.
The much touted CE support hasn’t really materialised. Basic, over prised players have sold very poorly and the return of investment simply isn’t there. A CE company would be lucky to sell 20’000 Blu Ray players. Hardly enough to crawl any of the R&D costs back.
Fox and MGM pull Blu Ray support after the copy protection gets hacked.
It emerges that the current Blu Ray players won’t be able to support new BDJ interactive features, making all players bar the PS3 obsolete in the near future.
In the mean time HD DVD had to good release, yes it has had some set backs like the delay of the 2nd gen players and issues with combo disc compatibility, slowly but surely Toshiba and HD DVD have worked through these issues. Player development hasn’t halted and 3rd gen players are due out by the end of the year, at the same time they have brought down the price of the basic player from $499 to $299.
Attachment rates on HD DVD remain high to the extent that despite being 10 – 1 down in the player count they are only 2 – 1 down in software. HD DVD players sell 5 times more software the Blu Ray players.
So why has Paramount and Dreamworks gone HD DVD exclusive? Surely they were bought off by Microsoft or Toshiba? Well we know Microsoft didn’t do it. I wouldn’t be so sure Toshiba did either. Maybe they had a deal with Blu Ray that has just expired?
The only way Blu Ray can reach mass market quickly is via the PS3 which means very low attach rates. HD DVD on the other hand already has cheap standalone players that are selling very well compared to Blu Ray. The Chinese having chosen a variant of HD DVD for there own market are already well positioned to manufacturer and sell even cheaper HD DVD players. Crucially as the number of discs being made goes up considerably, HD DVD replication costs are still much cheaper and have no capacity issues.
Toshiba are not a threat or competitor to Paramount, Sony are. I’m sure this was part of the equation. It suites Paramount more that the DVD forums backed HD DVD format wins rather than the rogue format pushed by Sony.