View Full Version : If Warner goes HD-DVD exclusive, is it over for BD?


Lee Heytow
08-21-07, 12:45 PM
I am thinking that would give HD-DVD a vastly larger selection that BD and whatever Warner might lose in the short term it would be made up quickly and put and end to the format war.

JosephShaw
08-21-07, 12:55 PM
I am thinking that would give HD-DVD a vastly larger selection that BD and whatever Warner might lose in the short term it would be made up quickly and put and end to the format war.

I'm not exactly sure it would hurt BD in the short term, as Warner has been slow to release titles on BD as it is. In the long term, most likely yes.

MauneyM
08-21-07, 01:03 PM
If HD DVD were to gain another major exclusive studio, their hardware price advantage will take over.

Until now, it's been a relative stalemate: HD DVD in one corner with low hardware prices and 1 exclusive major studio (Universal); BD in the other corner with 3 exclusive major studios (Disney, Fox, Sony), but with Fox and Disney releasing very few actual titles.

Now, the field is tilted slightly toward HD DVD, with two exclusives & price against BDs three exclusives; Fox announcing a ramped-up release schedule for Q4 has kept it a fairly close horse race.

Warner could tip the scales either way.

Disney or Fox could tip the scales towards HD VERY quickly with a neutrality move.

The BDA could move the needle back in their direction with some low-cost hardware (but at the expense of their current CE mfg supporters).

Wal-Mart, however, holds all the cards. At this point, if they were to back one format or the other, the game would be over.

kevivoe
08-21-07, 01:15 PM
I am thinking that would give HD-DVD a vastly larger selection that BD and whatever Warner might lose in the short term it would be made up quickly and put and end to the format war.

You are right. It would be game over no matter how you slice it.

Howard Stringer would no longer be the CEO of Sony in 2 quarters and we will no longer hear outragous speeches from Andy Parsons.

Remember Warner was HD DVD exclusive before launch. Warner can end it RIGHT now if they choose.

Bailey151
08-21-07, 01:20 PM
Remember Warner was HD DVD exclusive before launch. Warner can end it RIGHT now if they choose.
Anyone else think maybe the studios got together & said "scew Sony with their royalties & disc prices.........heck they're a competing sutdio" = they just flat out decided to put a stop to this themselves?

It's just a thought, much along the lines that maybe they got a hint from Wallys & figured it behooved them to re-think.

JosephShaw
08-21-07, 01:22 PM
If HD DVD were to gain another major exclusive studio, their hardware price advantage will take over.

The non-videophiles that I know are waiting it out for a decisive winner. Even at sub-$300 hardware prices, they are not interested in investing in hardware or software if there is the chance that it will not be around in the next few years. So, even if Warner went HD-DVD exclusive, they'd still sit it out until there was a winner, or prices got insanely cheap, i.e sub-$200 hardware and DVD-priced software with first week discounts at B&M retailers, etc.

Timothy Ramzyk
08-21-07, 01:25 PM
Yes, there is no question in my mind.

I though this before the Paramount deal.

Blu-ray would not "die" in the sense that PS3 would keep going, but HD DVD would gain major support from all angles.

Swoosh-X
08-21-07, 01:26 PM
If that happened, then Sony/Matsushita/etc. would just turn around and pay Disney and 20th Century Fox similar amounts that Paramount got from Toshiba.

And then guess what. We're right back at square one. If HD-DVD is not going anywhere, neither is Blu-Ray.

I think the "dream" of one format devouring the other one is just about dead. We'll have to accept both and wait for dual-format readers to become the majority.

The price thing is overestimated too. There's a limit to how many people will spend even $200 on a player when it doesn't play all the movies they want on it and it might be obsolete a few years down the line.

Vriess
08-21-07, 01:44 PM
I think so, the only thing keeping Blu Ray afloat right now is the ps3 and their promise of greater studio support. Once they lose the studio support card it will be even harder for them to entice standalone users who are already buying into hd-dvd more.

Monty22001
08-21-07, 01:45 PM
Why not? How about a good compromise. Sony uses the supierior coating/disc tech and Toshiba/MS can get the hardware.

That way we can have 50gig higher bandwidth discs with the hddvd software.

Electone
08-21-07, 01:54 PM
Anyone else think maybe the studios got together & said "scew Sony with their royalties & disc prices.........heck they're a competing sutdio" = they just flat out decided to put a stop to this themselves?

It's just a thought, much along the lines that maybe they got a hint from Wallys & figured it behooved them to re-think.

This is a good point that I also raised in the past. Sony is not only a CE manufacturer, but they are also the owners of several studios exclusively aligned with Blu-ray. Is this not a conflict of interest? Is the European Union seeing something that we are not here in North America?

tomes
08-21-07, 01:55 PM
If BD keeps Sony, Fox and Disney, there is no way HDDVD will win, even with Warner. However, it means noone will win (which I believe is the case now with Paramount going HDDVD exclusive).

HDM is going to be a niche format, unless Paramount changes their mind in 18 months.

MidnightWatcher
08-21-07, 02:21 PM
Warner is already partially HD DVD exclusive. Once they announce that they are joining Universal, Paramount and DreamWorks in being fully HD DVD exclusive, it will be the beginning of the end for Blu-ray. Fox and Disney would be stupid to remain BD exclusive and will become neutral without a doubt.

Woodshed
08-21-07, 02:29 PM
Warner is already partially HD DVD exclusive. Once they announce that they are joining Universal, Paramount and DreamWorks in being fully HD DVD exclusive, it will be the beginning of the end for Blu-ray. Fox and Disney would be stupid to remain BD exclusive and will become neutral without a doubt.


You guys crack me up. Do you mean Warner isn't hd exclusive now??? LOL


They have been shafting BR from the start, and 300 was already released. Warner going exclusive would have little effect on "ending it quickly" You guys are dreaming.

If HD DVD can keep the boat afloat with only Uni, do you honestly think BR can't with Fox and Disney?:rolleyes:

JeffY
08-21-07, 02:32 PM
Blu Ray is already very close to being a high def version of UMD, no Warner would confirm it's place as a niche film format for PS3 players.

UxiSXRD
08-21-07, 02:33 PM
Warner is already partially HD DVD exclusive. Once they announce that they are joining Universal, Paramount and DreamWorks in being fully HD DVD exclusive, it will be the beginning of the end for Blu-ray. Fox and Disney would be stupid to remain BD exclusive and will become neutral without a doubt.


Heh, your sig looks just like rdjams. You must drink the same kool-aid, as well.

Unless MSFT has $150 more million to bribe GE with, they'll never allow Warner to go exclusive.

kowhite
08-21-07, 02:33 PM
If WB goes HD-DVD exclusive, it means total stalemate in my mind for the next couple years.

Woodshed
08-21-07, 02:34 PM
If WB goes HD-DVD exclusive, it means total stalemate in my mind for the next couple years.


/agree We may already be there.

Monty22001
08-21-07, 02:35 PM
If WB goes HD-DVD exclusive, it means total stalemate in my mind for the next couple years.

It means dual format players HAVE to come out cheap, or SD DVD will win for the next 10 years.

There was a good chance for HDM to take off. Not now.

Chris in SD
08-21-07, 02:37 PM
There was a good chance for HDM to take off. Not now.

So Sony failing to force their inferior format on the masses is a bad thing?

JAG1977
08-21-07, 02:43 PM
Warner is already partially HD DVD exclusive. Once they announce that they are joining Universal, Paramount and DreamWorks in being fully HD DVD exclusive, it will be the beginning of the end for Blu-ray. Fox and Disney would be stupid to remain BD exclusive and will become neutral without a doubt.

HD-DVD's had a boost, but come on reality check, these threads are getting out of control.

HD-DVD is LOSING the format war, FOX has just announced a staggering line-up of titles, Disney has announced POTC 3 and big hitters from Pixar, Sony have the Spiderman Trilogy line-up..................:cool:

You guys also need to realise HD-DVD is effectively dead outside of the US!

Calm down, Jees!

Everdog
08-21-07, 02:43 PM
If WB goes HD-DVD exclusive, it means total stalemate in my mind for the next couple years.

If the studios are in a stalemate, then price will be the determining factor. Also, if one side would happen to keep chaning profiles making older players obsolete for various funtions, that would help (the other side) too.

So, who has the lower price and who has the more stable platform (one that is not scheduled to change every six months)?

Urza
08-21-07, 02:46 PM
HD-DVD's had a boost, but come on reality check, these threads are getting out of control.

HD-DVD is LOSING the format war, FOX has just announced a staggering line-up of titles, Disney has announced thePOT3 and big hitters from Pixar, Sony have the Spiderman Trilogy line-up..................:cool:

HD-DVD is losing? Really?

There must be MORE THAN MEETS THE EYE regarding this post.

dobyblue
08-21-07, 02:47 PM
Warner is not going HD DVD exclusive. They are staying neutral.

Without the agreement of Time Warner neither Warner Bros., HBO nor New Line can go HD DVD exclusive.

JE3146
08-21-07, 02:47 PM
HD DVD wasn't dead with Universal being the last to hold on.


But now Sony, Fox and Disney, without WB would be a dieing format?


Give me a break. :rolleyes:

Timothy Ramzyk
08-21-07, 02:51 PM
Everyone who thinks a Warner that is HD DVD only would be no skin, is completely leaving out the advantage of HD DVD's low price of entry.

They are also leaving out the fact that Disney likes $, and Disney has a habit of saying one thing but ultimately following the coin. Disney wouldn't go HD DVD exclusive, but they would go neutral so fast your tiara would spin.

JAG1977
08-21-07, 02:55 PM
HD-DVD is losing? Really?

There must be MORE THAN MEETS THE EYE regarding this post.

Of course it is, you could say HD-DVD IS dead in most markets outside of the US.

Cheap HD-DVD players failed to make a dent on Blu-rays software sales lead, why should Paramount going exclusive, especially with Fox returning and BD studios upping their output?

I simply cannot see how HD-DVD can stop Blu-ray increasing it's software lead to a solid 3-1 through Q4 and into 2008.

Get back to me when the sales figures are in.

cybereality
08-21-07, 03:04 PM
Hey, it could happen.

Lodef
08-21-07, 03:04 PM
[QUOTE=JAG1977;11372150]HD-DVD's had a boost, but come on reality check, these threads are getting out of control.

HD-DVD is LOSING the format war, FOX has just announced a staggering line-up of titles, Disney has announced POTC 3 and big hitters from Pixar, Sony have the Spiderman Trilogy line-up..................:cool:

You guys also need to realise HD-DVD is effectively dead outside of the US!

Calm down, Jees![/QUOTE

Have to give ya credit, your one of the few Blu folks that is holding their ground. Though I think you are completely wrong with your logic. :D

ryoohki
08-21-07, 03:12 PM
So Sony failing to force their inferior format on the masses is a bad thing?

LOL inferior... spec wise HD DVD is inferior.. media wise.. where's my : It cost less to produce.. then why the media are the same price (combo are more but it doesn't count). I mean yeah, the HD DVD spec are complete and work, but Toshiba doesn't seem to know how to make consistent player playback with 1 hardware manifacturer.

On PC, Bluray destroy HD DVD... why.. because there's no HD DVD Writer on the market, there's HD DVD-R SL media for 9$ and BR Media SL for 10$ (10 more gig). And both dropping

Japan market for HDM is low.. but HD DVD is non existant in that country, it's ruled by BR since they don't have cheap players, the PS3 is the cheapest of both ....

People are gonna be fuc*** up this Xmas.. they'll see : POTC3, Spiderman, Ratatouille, Cars, Die Hard, The Simpsons (theorically i mean) on BluRay and on HD DVD , Shrek 3, TF and Bourne...

Greg Kettell
08-21-07, 03:18 PM
People are gonna be fuc*** up this Xmas.. they'll see : POTC3, Spiderman, Ratatouille, Cars, Die Hard, The Simpsons (theorically i mean) on BluRay and on HD DVD , Shrek 3, TF and Bourne...

And they're gonna say screw it and stick with DVD.

wakashizuma
08-21-07, 03:18 PM
I dont think it will ever happen.
Warner is the one that advocating being format neutral means more money so why would they switch to being exclusive?
Their hit title "300" is the best selling HDM disc and it is because it is available on both formats; so it doesn't make sense for them letting go of Blu-ray (or HD DVD).
Good news for me is that studios are now more committed to HD media.
Instead of being so bitter about the news; lets be thankful that we are getting great looking and sounding HD titles and not be so negative >>
)Sony has been great in terms of video and audio quality in their releases
)Universal is abandoning DD+ in favor of TrueHD
)Warner has been innovative in special features and doing great releases
)Fox is back in the game with tons of awesome titles
)Disney seems motivated to deliver great releases in future
My point is that studios are now delivering excellent products regardless of their format of choice.
I believe there is more to celebrate than complaining.Yes there are issues like consumer confusion and lack of a unified format; I'm not denying that but I believe there is more good into it than bad. Nothing is perfect in this world so you always have to compromise somehow and right now I think HD market is going full steam
My 2 cents

JAG1977
08-21-07, 03:21 PM
Am I missing something?

Fox, Sony, Disney, Lionsgate, Anchor Bay etc exclusive, a 2-1 sales lead, PS3, cheaper standalones, a marketing budget HD-DVD cannot hope to match, retailer support, a Q4 release schedule that is on a different planet to HD-DVD's, while HD-DVD only has a foothold in North America.........

Why will that be overturned by an 18 month Paramount deal that may not even be 100% exclusive?

I'm fully aware this is a big boost for HD-DVD, I'm just trying to understand were this invincabilty complex has come from for HD-DVD?

I can only assume you're (as a whole) overcome with emotion and shouting off at the mouth.

Maybe you're also ignoring the fact the BDA has money and influence?

Can anyone give me a reasoned argument why HD-DVD will overcome Blu-ray, seeing as the loss of Paramount has been countered with a better than expected Fox release slate?

The emotion should now have died down on both sides, including admitedly myself, it's time to get a little perspective.

alinski
08-21-07, 03:23 PM
HD-DVD's had a boost, but come on reality check, these threads are getting out of control.

HD-DVD is LOSING the format war, FOX has just announced a staggering line-up of titles, Disney has announced POTC 3 and big hitters from Pixar, Sony have the Spiderman Trilogy line-up..................:cool:

You guys also need to realise HD-DVD is effectively dead outside of the US!

Calm down, Jees!

Studios have not come through for some announcement of title releases in the past. Won't believe it until a title is imminently released. This goes for both formats.

alinski...

Woodshed
08-21-07, 03:25 PM
And they're gonna say screw it and stick with DVD.



You sir, are today's winner.

Chris in SD
08-21-07, 03:27 PM
Am I missing something?

Fox, Sony, Disney, Lionsgate, Anchor Bay etc exclusive, a 2-1 sales lead, PS3, cheaper standalones, a marketing budget HD-DVD cannot hope to match, retailer support, a Q4 release schedule that is on a different planet to HD-DVD's, while HD-DVD only has a foothold in North Ammerica.........

Why will that be overturned by an 18 month Paramount deal that may not even be 100% exclusive!

I'm fully aware this is a big boost for HD-DVD, I'm just trying to understand were this invincabilty complex has come from for HD-DVD?

I can only assume you're (as a whole) overcome with emotion, and shouting off at the mouth.

Maybe you're also ignoring the fact the BDA has money and influence?

Can anyone give me a reasoned argument why HD-DVD will overcome Blu-ray, seeing as the loss of Paramount has been countered with a better than expected Fox release slate?

The emotion should now have died down on both sides, including admitedly myself, it's time to get a little perspective.

The fact that with a 10:1 hardware advantage, paid off retailers, paid off rental outfits, paid off studios.... BD has only manage a 2:1 sales lead due to PS3's shoving the format down peoples throats. HD DVD, despite all these disadvantages, has held 33% of the market. That is VERY telling if you'd let go of your emotions, J6P.

dobyblue
08-21-07, 03:37 PM
Warner is already partially HD DVD exclusive. Once they announce that they are joining Universal, Paramount and DreamWorks in being fully HD DVD exclusive, it will be the beginning of the end for Blu-ray.


Hate to disappoint you, but that's not happening.

Lodef
08-21-07, 03:37 PM
The fact that with a 10:1 hardware advantage, paid off retailers, paid off rental outfits, paid off studios.... BD has only manage a 2:1 sales lead due to PS3's shoving the format down peoples throats. HD DVD, despite all these disadvantages, has held 33% of the market. That is VERY telling if you'd let go of your emotions, J6P.

That is pretty much it in a nutshell. And the more HD DVD players that sell translates into higher attach rates based on the current figures at which I'm sure these studios were following closely which also helped prompt them into this announcement.

Bob Black
08-21-07, 03:50 PM
The fact that with a 10:1 hardware advantage, paid off retailers, paid off rental outfits, paid off studios.... BD has only manage a 2:1 sales lead due to PS3's shoving the format down peoples throats. HD DVD, despite all these disadvantages, has held 33% of the market. That is VERY telling if you'd let go of your emotions, J6P.

Actually, it isn't even a 2:1 sales lead. According to Home Media Research, the totals through July are 2.2 million in Blu-Ray and 1.5 million in HD DVD, or roughly 1.46:1! Debate the recent sales figures all you want, but these are the actual totals sold to date. So BD fans have been gushing over an extra 700K discs, claiming the format war is over! What a joke! Then factor in the handful of BOGO and 50%-Off sales at BB, CC, Fry's and amazon for Blu-Ray, and the disparity shrinks even more.

Woodshed
08-21-07, 03:56 PM
That is pretty much it in a nutshell. And the more HD DVD players that sell translates into higher attach rates based on the current figures at which I'm sure these studios were following closely which also helped prompt them into this announcement.


Yeah, that or $150 million.

Chris in SD
08-21-07, 03:57 PM
Yeah, that or $150 million.

Same reason Target, Blockbuster, 21st, Disney etc "preferred" BD.

Chris in SD
08-21-07, 03:58 PM
Hate to disappoint you, but that's not happening.

Got some lotto numbers for me?

Woodshed
08-21-07, 03:58 PM
Actually, it isn't even a 2:1 sales lead. According to Home Media Research, the totals through July are 2.2 million in Blu-Ray and 1.5 million in HD DVD, or roughly 1.46:1! Debate the recent sales figures all you want, but these are the actual totals sold to date. So BD fans have been gushing over an extra 700K discs, claiming the format war is over! What a joke! Then factor in the handful of BOGO and 50%-Off sales at BB, CC, Fry's and amazon for Blu-Ray, and the disparity shrinks even more.


As opposed to the HD DVD slingers who are pronouncing the war will soon be over when....

1. Disney goes neutral, or exclusive
2. Warner goes exclusive
3. FOX goes exclusive
4. Chinese players that cost .25 come and WM goes exclusive.

It works both ways, get over yourselves.

Woodshed
08-21-07, 03:59 PM
Same reason Target, Blockbuster, 21st, Disney etc "preferred" BD.



And?

b.greenway
08-21-07, 04:02 PM
Hate to disappoint you, but that's not happening.

Would you have said the same if I'd told you Paramount was dropping BD last week?

Chris in SD
08-21-07, 04:04 PM
And?

Quit shilling.

wei2008
08-21-07, 04:07 PM
It is really imperative for BDA to keep money rolling into Warner's account. Once the money dries, who knows what will happen?

Urza
08-21-07, 04:10 PM
[QUOTE=JAG1977;11372150]HD-DVD's had a boost, but come on reality check, these threads are getting out of control.

HD-DVD is LOSING the format war, FOX has just announced a staggering line-up of titles, Disney has announced POTC 3 and big hitters from Pixar, Sony have the Spiderman Trilogy line-up..................:cool:

You guys also need to realise HD-DVD is effectively dead outside of the US!

Calm down, Jees![/QUOTE

Have to give ya credit, your one of the few Blu folks that is holding their ground. Though I think you are completely wrong with your logic. :D


Gotta hand it to him to, his total meltdown is consistant.

ITS ONLY A FLESH WOUND!

Woodshed
08-21-07, 04:10 PM
Quit shilling.

Umm, yeah not sure what that is and I am sure what you are getting at. but ok?

kowhite
08-21-07, 04:15 PM
Would you have said the same if I'd told you Paramount was dropping BD last week?

And would you say the same thing if I started a thread asking if WB would go neutral? At this point, it's reasonable to assume anything can happen. The only studio that's 100% safe at this moment...is Sony.

JAG1977
08-21-07, 04:19 PM
The fact that with a 10:1 hardware advantage, paid off retailers, paid off rental outfits, paid off studios.... BD has only manage a 2:1 sales lead due to PS3's shoving the format down peoples throats. HD DVD, despite all these disadvantages, has held 33% of the market. That is VERY telling if you'd let go of your emotions, J6P.

There we go again, vast exagerations.

Since when has every PS3 sold been used as a Blu-ray player?

Blu-ray had a big push early this year and gained a 2-1 lead, during the summer Blu-ray has had zero Fox releases and a reduced Disney slate, Sony have been propping things up virtually alone.

At the same time Toshiba slashed the price of standalone players and Univesal flooded the market with exclusive titles.

In the face of this Blu-ray comfortably maintained a 2-1 lead.

Moving into Q4 Blu-rays lost Paramount (Transformers, Shrek 3, Top Gun etc..) but Fox are back on board BIG style, Disney and Sony have lined-up their big hitters, and the likes of Lionsgate and Anchor Bay have a nice release list.

We can also take for granted dual format releases will sell 2-1 better on Blu-ray.

In addition PS3 will sell better with a few AAA game releases and standalone players will continue to reduce in price.

We'd also be naieve to think the BDA don't have a big announcement or two lined-up, what form it takes who knows, maybe Universal, Walmart, $199 player...........?

JAG1977
08-21-07, 04:23 PM
[QUOTE=Lodef;11372471]


Gotta hand it to him to, his total meltdown is consistant.

ITS ONLY A FLESH WOUND!

Either respond to my points sensibly or you fall into the 'shouting off at the mouth' bracket.

Do you expect HD-DVD to draw level with Blu-ray?

Simple yes or no question?

My cards are on the table, I expect Blu-ray to gain a 3-1 lead this Christmas, and I've given the reasons for it.

Caurus
08-21-07, 04:28 PM
@JAG1977: HD DVD is doing just fine in Europe. It is the preferred format of the educated people who import all (sic!) of their HD DVDs from the US (that saves them about 30%). Bluray is a PS3 only format in Europe. The sales of bluray standalones in Europe you cannot even call mediocre - they are hardly existing. So don't worry, HD DVD is doing fine outside the US.

I think this all is a big chess game. And the HD DVD side (playing white) impresses me very much. If they continue I can imagine following scenario:

A. In one month: Warner goes HD DVD exclusiv (not right now - timing is very important)

B. In two month: chinese HD DVD player in the price range $99-$149 show up.

C. In three month: the BD 1.1 disaster comes to effect - people are wondering why their $1k BD player have become doorsteps overnight

D. Holiday season. People can choose between two formats. HD DVD with the best movies, better features, lowest prices and the movies that have proven to have the best picture quality or bluray, which is expensve, half-baked and there will be rumors that the new BD 1.1 is not enough because some BD 2.0 is on the way...

Well you tell me, what this would mean for the format war. But it is just one possible scenario. As I said the HD DVD side surprised my in the past by having much better ideas then the one I can imagine. ;)

JAG1977
08-21-07, 04:29 PM
[QUOTE=Lodef;11372471]


Gotta hand it to him to, his total meltdown is consistant.

ITS ONLY A FLESH WOUND!

Either respond to my points sensibly or you fall into the 'shouting off at the mouth' bracket.

Do you expect HD-DVD to draw level with Blu-ray?

Simple yes or no question?

My cards are on the table, I expect Blu-ray to gain a 3-1 lead this Christmas, and I've given the reasons for it.

Strange quote BTW, a FLESH WOUND is eaxctly what the Paramount deal is.

Should be healed in 18 months, lol

Bailey151
08-21-07, 04:30 PM
My cards are on the table, I expect Blu-ray to gain a 3-1 lead this Christmas, and I've given the reasons for it.
But since the 2:1 number isn't correct what can we say about the reasons?

According to Home Media Research the totals through July are 2.2 million in Blu-Ray and 1.5 million in HD DVD discs sold.

(FWIW - that's more like 1.46:1 than 2:1)
:D

Slim GoodBooty
08-21-07, 04:30 PM
@JAG1977: HD DVD is doing just fine in Europe. It is the preferred format of the educated people who import all (sic!) of their HD DVDs from the US (that saves them about 30%). Bluray is a PS3 only format in Europe. The sales of bluray standalones in Europe you cannot even call mediocre - they are hardly existing. So don't worry, HD DVD is doing fine outside the US.

I think this all is a big chess game. And the HD DVD side (playing white) impresses me very much. If they continue I can imagine following scenario:

A. In one month: Warner goes HD DVD exclusiv (not right now - timing is very important)

B. In two month: chinese HD DVD player in the price range $99-$149 show up.

C. In three month: the BD 1.1 disaster comes to effect - people are wondering why their $1k BD player have become doorsteps overnight

D. Holiday season. People can choose between two formats. HD DVD with the best movies, better features, lowest prices and the movies that have proven to have the best picture quality or bluray, which is expensve, half-baked and there will be rumors that the new BD 1.1 is not enough because some BD 2.0 is on the way...

Well you tell me, what this would mean for the format war. But it is just one possible scenario. As I said the HD DVD side surprised my in the past by having much better ideas then the one I can imagine. ;)
Even if all of that happens BD won't be dead. I do agree that the unfished BD spec is an issue to people here, but the average guy has no clue about it.

JAG1977
08-21-07, 04:34 PM
@JAG1977: HD DVD is doing just fine in Europe. It is the preferred format of the educated people who import all (sic!) of their HD DVDs from the US (that saves them about 30%). Bluray is a PS3 only format in Europe. The sales of bluray standalones in Europe you cannot even call mediocre - they are hardly existing. So don't worry, HD DVD is doing fine outside the US.



Walk into your local HMV or Virgin Megastore and Blu-ray shellf space is 3-4 times greater than HD-DVD, depsite being equal a few months back. Software sales are also 3-1+ greater.

PS3 is the dominant Blu-ray player in Europe, it would have been the same in the US if the PS3 was available when Blu-ray launched.

As for your other points, what if Universal supported Blu-ray at CES 2008, what if Walmart supported Blu-ray exclusively with a sub $200 player?

We can all play those games, assumming the BDA will sit back when they are batting from a position of strength is rather presumptious.

Only time will tell whether the Paramount deal is a last throw of the dice for HD-DVD, or the begining of something bigger.

lymzy
08-21-07, 04:36 PM
It is really imperative for BDA to keep money rolling into Warner's account. Once the money dries, who knows what will happen?

According to videobusiness, the only reason WHV went neutral was because of pressure from the biggest share holder to find new revenue source. One year later, WHV might be able to turn back and said instead of getting new revenue we are losing money in the HDM business. If we go exclusive, we might loss less money, not boost competitor's format, and getting more incentive/roylaty down the road.

kevivoe
08-21-07, 04:39 PM
Hate to disappoint you, but that's not happening.

Beatboy counted Paramount Marketing as "sources" and was totaly blind sided. I doubt you have any better source from within Warner.

lymzy
08-21-07, 04:41 PM
PS3 is the dominant Blu-ray player in Europe,


I don't know if 2-3:1 is dominate or not, but I do know Paramount or any other studios doesn't give a xxxx to the so called lead in the niche market. They are lossing money in this HDM business to the extent that "150M" could make them dump one format for "two holiday seasons".

Maybe they are tired of waiting in the line for DL-50GB and BD-J CE to catch up?

burbank
08-21-07, 04:43 PM
Would you have said the same if I'd told you Paramount was dropping BD last week?


Actually Warner corporate seems to be loosening the reigns over the various entities within Time Warner, according to people I know. Living here in Midtown Atlanta I know several longtime CNN and Turner corporate employees. These range from corporate compliance lawyers to segment producers to admins for the exec vps just one or two layers down from the CEO or Time Warner. No one I know directly deals with home video releases.

But their observations are more along the lines of how corporate is treating individual business units. About two years ago there was a lot of involvement from corporate with each individual business entity. Corporate really stressed a more unified strategy. Recently there seems to be less of a single strategy and more of a tolerance for whatever (within reason) makes sense for an entity's business. So, Warner Home Video could now, especially with the Paramount move have a lot of ammunition to change their position.

Still, Time Warner is big, and as a rule they tend to thumb their nose at outside influences. Unless it is a really sweet offer :D So the rumored $150 million probably wouldn't get their attention...from what I've been told.

Chris in SD
08-21-07, 04:45 PM
Walk into your local HMV or Virgin Megastore and Blu-ray shellf space is 3-4 times greater than HD-DVD,

What a load of BS. Fry's, Best Buy, hell ANYWHERE in San Diego shelf space is EXACTLY EQUAL.

todrigo
08-21-07, 04:47 PM
Everybody keeps talking about payments made by the BDA to entities for exclusivity, can anybody back this us with facts, I'm not talking about buying endcaps at Target or Bestbuy either. There is a news article saying Paramount / Dreamworks got $150M to do this, is there any similar evidence pointing to BDA doing the same? I suppose we will know more as financial statements are released during the fiscal year as large payments will be annotated.

plazman
08-21-07, 04:47 PM
Beatboy counted Paramount Marketing as "sources" and was totaly blind sided. I doubt you have any better source from within Warner.

paramount marketing probably has hundreds of employees and his contact could be a low level person who makes brochures for BD or something to that effect...

Caurus
08-21-07, 04:48 PM
Walk into your local HMV or Virgin Megastore and Blu-ray shellf space is 3-4 times greater than HD-DVD, depsite being equal a few months back. Software sales are also 3-1+ greater.

PS3 is the dominant Blu-ray player in Europe, it would have been the same in the US if the PS3 was available when Blu-ray launched.

As I said, the people import their HD DVDs. They cannot do this by walking into a store. Why should someone buy a HD DVD for 25 Euro in a store when he can order the HD DVD for less then 18 Euro (including shipping) from the US? Check the local european ebays and you see that imported HD DVDs already flooded the European market.

Even if all of that happens BD won't be dead. I do agree that the unfished BD spec is an issue to people here, but the average guy has no clue about it.

I agree. BD won't be dead, because Disney and Fox probably have similiar contracts with Sony as Paramount with HD DVD. :)

Oh, I missed "E" in the scenario: E. CES 2008, Triple layer 51 GB HD DVD gets announced, with increased bitrate and fully compatible with the existing HD DVD and hybrid players.

And then... yada, yada, yada... Disney goes neutral and "format war" will be known to be the description of the "war" between HD DVD and DVD. Which HD DVD can win because of the combo discs.

Good prospects for HD enthusiasts. But it is just a scenario.

But since the 2:1 number isn't correct what can we say about the reasons?

According to Home Media Research the totals through July are 2.2 million in Blu-Ray and 1.5 million in HD DVD discs sold.

(FWIW - that's more like 1.46:1 than 2:1)
:D

Wasn't the ratio 4:1 or 3:1 at the beginning of the year? So bluray is consistently loosing ground? Good news.

Urza
08-21-07, 04:48 PM
[QUOTE=Urza;11373573]

Either respond to my points sensibly or you fall into the 'shouting off at the mouth' bracket.

Do you expect HD-DVD to draw level with Blu-ray?

Simple yes or no question?

My cards are on the table, I expect Blu-ray to gain a 3-1 lead this Christmas, and I've given the reasons for it.

Strange quote BTW, a FLESH WOUND is eaxctly what the Paramount deal is.

Should be healed in 18 months, lol

INSERT BABY CRYING PIC HERE


Answer is Yes I do, not by Dec perhaps, but I beleive it will because of the current news.

As for 3 to 1, BD can barely to 2 do 1 now with all the players they have.

There you go, I answered. You may now continue your angry meltdown.

JAG1977
08-21-07, 04:50 PM
What a load of BS. Fry's, Best Buy, hell ANYWHERE in San Diego shelf space is EXACTLY EQUAL.

The discussion is about the UK.

Blu-ray is routinely favoured 3-1/4-1 in terms of shelf space, there will obviously be excpetions.

Major stores like Comet/Dixons have prominent Blu-ray displays, HD-DVD is often placed amongst regular DVD players, if stocked at all.

HD-DVD has a foothold in the US thanks to it's early launch, in the rest of the world both formats launched at the same time, with PS3 not far behind.

aka_dnv
08-21-07, 04:50 PM
It would not kill BR, but it would put main stream adoption of HD media in serious trouble.

Even if Sony sells 1/4 the number of PS3's as they sold ps2's, (and they are a lot more ambitious than that), there will be 50,000,000 Blu Ray players out there! in 18 months projections indicate that HD display units will be in half of all homes, meaning movie attach rates for ps3 owners will also rise.

Its delusional to think Blu ray is going to disappear.

To Illustrate further, If Disney and Sony were the only studios producing
Blu ray movies, that is, all other studios were HD DVD exclusive, Stand alone blu ray players would be called "Disneys", and they would sell, because parents want Disney, it's the only studio people ask for by name.

My point is Sony will always have a critical mass of players, and Disney is a very strong supporter of the Blu Ray format.

JAG1977
08-21-07, 04:52 PM
[QUOTE=JAG1977;11373883]

INSERT BABY CRYING PIC HERE



Yeh, real clever, got me there. :rolleyes:

Once again trot out the '10-1' player advantage and ignore the Q4 release slate.

At least you won't be able fudge the eventual sales figures............

Urza
08-21-07, 04:54 PM
[QUOTE=Urza;11374142]

Yeh, real clever, got me there. :rolleyes:

At least you can't fudge the sales figures............

Poor Jag. I still have cheese corn left, want some?:D

Chris in SD
08-21-07, 04:57 PM
Yeh, real clever, got me there. :rolleyes:

Once again trot out the '10-1' player advantage and ignore the Q4 release slate.

At least you won't be able fudge the eventual sales figures............

You have faith Fox will follow it's release schedule? What's this based on?

Bailey151
08-21-07, 04:59 PM
Even if Sony sells 1/4 the number of PS3's as they sold ps2's, (and they are a lot more ambitious than that), there will be 50,000,000 Blu Ray players out there! in 18 months projections indicate that HD display units will be in half of all homes, meaning movie attach rates for ps3 owners will also rise.
.
First - 50 mill when, 2025? But lets take the fantasy. 50 mil with an attach rate of 1 = 50 mil movies. Take SA players with an attach rate of 3 would mean you'd only need to sell 16.6 mil player to get the same movie sales.

Catch the drift here? It's not possible to sell enough consoles.

IIRC there are 126 mil DVD players in the US, that would mean you'd only need to sell 378 mil consoles to be equal.

And there is no reason to think attach rates would go up given historically they go down as more games become available.

JAG1977
08-21-07, 05:00 PM
You have faith Fox will follow it's release schedule? What's this based on?

The fact they've been waiting for BD+ and HAVE to deliver, just like HD-DVD HAD to make a major move otherwise the format would be no more after this Christmas.

We all have our prefared formats but, and I know I'm generallising here, HD-DVD owners seem to only see good for 'their' format, and dissaster for Blu-ray.

Maybe it's because HD-DVD's been given a short term reprieve, but Blu-ray owners seem to be the only ones seeing the bigger picture!

Chris in SD
08-21-07, 05:02 PM
The fact they've been waiting for BD+ and HAVE to deliver, you know like HD-DVD HAD to make a major move otherwise the format would be no more after this Christmas.

LOL @ all the useless BD players when BD+ hits. Fox doesn't HAVE to do anything. HDM sales suck. Why are you comparing Fox to HD DVD? Cocaine?

SamwisetheBrave
08-21-07, 05:06 PM
[QUOTE=Urza;11373573]

Either respond to my points sensibly or you fall into the 'shouting off at the mouth' bracket.

Do you expect HD-DVD to draw level with Blu-ray?

Simple yes or no question?

Okay: NO .... HD DVD will pull away.

My cards are on the table, I expect Blu-ray to gain a 3-1 lead this Christmas, and I've given the reasons for it.

Christmas might too soon for the big turn-around, but if there is a low-cost Toshiba or Chinese player under the tree, it will surely come.

ab2ab
08-21-07, 05:07 PM
Wal-Mart, however, holds all the cards. At this point, if they were to back one format or the other, the game would be over.

Nuff said! It's as simply as that! Trust me, those Chinese HD DVD players are on the way!

JAG1977
08-21-07, 05:11 PM
LOL @ all the useless BD players when BD+ hits. Fox doesn't HAVE to do anything. HDM sales suck. Why are you comparing Fox to HD DVD? Cocaine?

I can see I'm fighting a losing battle here, you guys obviously know what your talking about, lol :rolleyes:

Guess I should cancel my pre-orders for Ratatouille, Cars, Die Hard 4.0, Spidermman Trilogy etc., while I'm at it I'll ebay my PS3. :cool:

Urza
08-21-07, 05:13 PM
I can see I'm fighting a losing battle here, you guys obviously know what your talking about, lol :rolleyes:

Guess I should cancel must pre-orders for Ratatouille, Cars, Die Hard 4.0,. Spidermman Trilogy etc. and ebay my PS3. :cool:

Dont forget to cancel all your Paramount stuff to!:D, oops Im sorry, it was already done for you!:p

SamwisetheBrave
08-21-07, 05:14 PM
Nuff said! It's as simply as that! Trust me, those Chinese HD DVD players are on the way!

I don't trust you...:)...but I DO believe they are coming!;)

Chris in SD
08-21-07, 05:14 PM
I can see I'm fighting a losing battle here, you guys obviously know what your talking about, lol :rolleyes:

Guess I should cancel my pre-orders for Ratatouille, Cars, Die Hard 4.0, Spidermman Trilogy etc., while I'm at it I'll ebay my PS3. :cool:


What does that have to do with Fox? Oh, nothing.

MauneyM
08-21-07, 05:16 PM
Am I missing something?

[...], cheaper standalones, [...]

?!?!?!? There's nothing in the BD line that comes close to competing with HD DVD on hardware price. What were you thinking?

Q4 release schedule that is on a different planet to HD-DVD's

That remains to be seen. We haven't seen Universal's Q4 lineup yet, and we already know that Paramount has some good stuff in play. I would also state that Fox announced a few good titles along with some junk (like most of the studios have been doing). Right now, this one is a toss-up.

Why will that be overturned by an 18 month Paramount deal that may not even be 100% exclusive?

Paramount and Dreamworks exclusivity through two holiday seasons, combined with Universal exclusivity, combined with Warner's already solid HD DVD lineup, combined with players that are significantly cheaper then BD is a pretty solid package for HD DVD.

Can anyone give me a reasoned argument why HD-DVD will overcome Blu-ray, seeing as the loss of Paramount has been countered with a better than expected Fox release slate?

Hardware price. Think Wal-Mart, and the casual CE shopper who sees a $149 player next to The Matrix, 300, Shrek3, Bourne Ultimatum, etc. These are serious titles, and might well serve to push the consumer over the edge for the lower-priced HD player.

Far too soon to tell, though.

nithr
08-21-07, 05:23 PM
considering how paramounts deal have backfired on them (pissing off both consumers and directors) i doubt wb would be as stupid

besides it's not like wb have been a big supporter of bd as it so i doubt anyone would really notice if they did go hd dvd exclusive...

Chris in SD
08-21-07, 05:24 PM
considering how paramounts deal have backfired on them (pissing off both consumers and directors) i doubt wb would be as stupid

.

Pff, Paramounts deal has not backfired on them. Wow Michael Bay got pissed, along with rabid PS3 fanboys. Big freaking deal.

nithr
08-21-07, 05:29 PM
Pff, Paramounts deal has not backfired on them. Wow Michael Bay got pissed, along with rabid PS3 fanboys. Big freaking deal.

yeah and that dude who made that shark movie... steve something...

Chris in SD
08-21-07, 05:31 PM
yeah and that dude who made that shark movie... steve something...

So? I couldn't care less wtf Steven Spielberg thinks about HDM.

nithr
08-21-07, 05:36 PM
So? I couldn't care less wtf Steven Spielberg thinks about HDM.

im sure a lot of studios and directors do care what steven thinks

aka_dnv
08-21-07, 05:36 PM
First - 50 mill when, 2025? But lets take the fantasy. 50 mil with an attach rate of 1 = 50 mil movies. Take SA players with an attach rate of 3 would mean you'd only need to sell 16.6 mil player to get the same movie sales.

Catch the drift here? It's not possible to sell enough consoles.

IIRC there are 126 mil DVD players in the US, that would mean you'd only need to sell 378 mil consoles to be equal.

And there is no reason to think attach rates would go up given historically they go down as more games become available.

First I gave the low number of 50 million units which represents just 25% of the ps2's sold. The numbers are expected to be higher than that. As far as stand alone players are concerned, who knows when or, if, they will ever catch on, they certainly haven't so far, even at $199.

Attach rates are low for the PS3, because it does not make any sense to buy a HD movie if you do not own a HD display. When HD display saturation level rise so will movie attach rates for the PS3.

Next year Toshiba will be adding HD DVD drives to many of their laptop models. What do you think movie attach rates will be on those? do you think the lower attach rates for "HD DVD Players" will cause Paramount to flip their position of which formats to support ?

Chris in SD
08-21-07, 05:38 PM
im sure a lot of studios and directors do care what steven thinks

Not on the subject of HDM.

JAG1977
08-21-07, 05:47 PM
?!?!?!? There's nothing in the BD line that comes close to competing with HD DVD on hardware price. What were you thinking?




'Increasingly' cheaper Blu-ray standalones, not cheaper than HD-DVD.

Price will soon be a non issue for both formats, prices are crashing for both.

borland502
08-21-07, 05:48 PM
HD DVD boys, you have a bit of karmic justice against all that eagerly proclaimed the format dead. But this thread makes me smile, because I remember all the shrill complaints against Blu fanatics proclaiming HD DVD dead. So what happens when some good news comes your way?

The same wild victory dance over a house of cards. Speculation is fun, but fabrication is useless.

ab2ab
08-21-07, 05:49 PM
I don't trust you...:)...but I DO believe they are coming!;)

I guess you're right, I wouldn't trust me either. But I do know that when Walmart comes into play, Boo-Ray discs will be in the $5.00 video bin next to toiletries. And because I'm gonna have the new Samsung dual player, I'm gonna have a $hit load of those $5.00 boo-ray movies in my shopping cart.

JAG1977
08-21-07, 05:50 PM
Not on the subject of HDM.

It is when he insists his Paramount titles are also released on Blu-ray.

What if Lucas gives the go ahead for Star Wars on Blu-ray, not relevant to HDM?

bunkaroo
08-21-07, 06:07 PM
I'd actually be OK with WB going HD DVD exclusive as long as they canned both combos and TotalHD.

gaukaren
08-21-07, 06:58 PM
The discussion is about the UK.

Blu-ray is routinely favoured 3-1/4-1 in terms of shelf space, there will obviously be excpetions.

Major stores like Comet/Dixons have prominent Blu-ray displays, HD-DVD is often placed amongst regular DVD players, if stocked at all.This is more or less true for all B&M stores I've seen around Europe. It's quite ironic that being region free, the HD-DVD feature that is most desirable from the point of view of an European early-adopter movie fanatic (who isn't interested in localized features), might in fact be hurting it rather than helping it.

The PS3-buying crowd (those not primarily getting it as a HDM player) seems much more likely to pick up a title or two at their nearest HMW (or whatever) than those buying HD-DVD and shelf space has followed. This will again impact HD-DVD negatively when/if cheap standalones roll about because J6P won't be buying them if there aren't any media to be found easily available near the counter at his local Tesco.

deez
08-21-07, 11:47 PM
Again, I will say what I have always said......HD DVD will have a $149.00 player by xmas....1080i but the average consumer wont care cus he has 720p.

deez
08-21-07, 11:50 PM
I'd actually be OK with WB going HD DVD exclusive as long as they canned both combos and TotalHD.


How about all studios go neutral and like Champ Kind said in "Anchorman"..."You know ..see what happens":)

Rowlander
08-22-07, 06:03 AM
"Yes, yes. And what if the core was made of cheese?"

You´ll have plenty of time discussing that if it ever happens. No use in thinking about it now.

Woodshed
08-22-07, 08:23 AM
Again, I will say what I have always said......HD DVD will have a $149.00 player by xmas....1080i but the average consumer wont care cus he has 720p.


The average consumer has 480i, not 720p.

Bailey151
08-22-07, 09:09 AM
First I gave the low number of 50 million units which represents just 25% of the ps2's sold. The numbers are expected to be higher than that. As far as stand alone players are concerned, who knows when or, if, they will ever catch on, they certainly haven't so far, even at $199.

Attach rates are low for the PS3, because it does not make any sense to buy a HD movie if you do not own a HD display. When HD display saturation level rise so will movie attach rates for the PS3.

Next year Toshiba will be adding HD DVD drives to many of their laptop models. What do you think movie attach rates will be on those? do you think the lower attach rates for "HD DVD Players" will cause Paramount to flip their position of which formats to support ?
Expected to be higher? By whom? And when? In this century? Is the "higher" stated by the same people who said 6 million by last March? Or the PS3 fanboys who thought (& laughed when I disagreed) the PS3 would easily surpass the 360 @ 10 million by Xmas '07? If & when the PS3 see 50 million it will be long after it's generation - about where the PS2 is now.

One can't say the attach rate will go anywhere - it hasn't in nearly a year. It looks the same as it's always been & that is that the avg consumer simply doesn't want a console to be the media player. They don't have the interest in games & aren't willing to pay the $$$ for the functionality.

Difference - the overall attach rate will go down....but (a big one)....the flag bearer will be the SAs & not the laptops - the reverse of the PS3.

bunkaroo
08-22-07, 07:44 PM
How about all studios go neutral and like Champ Kind said in "Anchorman"..."You know ..see what happens":)

As long as I can get the movies I want with PQ and AQ not compromised by lack of space, I really don't care which format it's on.

The ability to shop or stuff like that while I'm watching the movie means exactly squat to me so I don't care either way about interactivity.

Emannikcufesin
08-22-07, 08:14 PM
LOL inferior... spec wise HD DVD is inferior.. media wise.. where's my : It cost less to produce.. then why the media are the same price (combo are more but it doesn't count). I mean yeah, the HD DVD spec are complete and work, but Toshiba doesn't seem to know how to make consistent player playback with 1 hardware manifacturer.

On PC, Bluray destroy HD DVD... why.. because there's no HD DVD Writer on the market, there's HD DVD-R SL media for 9$ and BR Media SL for 10$ (10 more gig). And both dropping

Japan market for HDM is low.. but HD DVD is non existant in that country, it's ruled by BR since they don't have cheap players, the PS3 is the cheapest of both ....

People are gonna be fuc*** up this Xmas.. they'll see : POTC3, Spiderman, Ratatouille, Cars, Die Hard, The Simpsons (theorically i mean) on BluRay and on HD DVD , Shrek 3, TF and Bourne...

Spec wise Blu Ray is superior... LOL! Let me laugh for awhile at this notion before I respond.

So can you explain to me why I'm enjoying PIP (dual stream video) and you're not. Why I'm connecting to the internet and you're not. Why all HD DVD players are standardized and I have no fear of having to buy a new player. A very real fear for Blu Ray owners considering that BD-J eneabled features won't be compatible with exsisting Blu Ray players. Finally, why some Blu Ray players aren't even capable of lossless audio (Samsung anyone). Really, think about this and tell me with a straight face that Blu Ray is "technically superior". Think about about all of the money you're going to be spending to purchase your new BD player to get all the features I'm currently enjoying on HD DVD because your current "re - old" BD Player isn't compatible with the new BD-J enabled features that should be available shortly.

Can you post one link the Blu Ray is killing HD DVD with on the PC with their $999 price point. Again your speculation is pure comic relief.

Japan adopting BD over HD DVD? It's possible, the country is known for it's gamers, but that matters to us here, how? Did that stop Paramount and Dreamworks from dumping Blu Ray? Yeah, I didn't think so.

Anyways unto the actual topic. If Warner dumps Blu Ray it will have a huge impact on public perception. Blu Ray losing ANOTHER studio would cause a paradigm shift. Paramount dumping them has already started the ripple in the water.

_Avarice_
08-22-07, 08:19 PM
Again your speculation is pure comic relief.

As is your juvenile attitude.

Emannikcufesin
08-22-07, 08:35 PM
As is your juvenile attitude.

Don't you have a video game to play? Oh wait, there are no good ones on the PS3. Well isn't there a movie you could be watching now like Gladiator or Beverly Hills Cop....ouch, I almost forgot those are going to be HD DVD exclusive. Gee, I can understand the biterness....$600 later and you have no good video games and studios are dropping Blu Ray.

Did you keep the receipt?

_Avarice_
08-22-07, 08:41 PM
As is your juvenile attitude.
Don't you have a video game to play? Oh wait, there are no good ones on the PS3. Well isn't there a movie you could be watching now like Gladiator or Beverly Hills Cop....ouch, I almost forgot those are going to be HD DVD exclusive. Gee, I can understand the biterness....$600 later and you have no good video games and studios are dropping Blu Ray.

Did you keep the receipt?

Thanks.

lip
08-22-07, 08:44 PM
This is more or less true for all B&M stores I've seen around Europe. It's quite ironic that being region free, the HD-DVD feature that is most desirable from the point of view of an European early-adopter movie fanatic (who isn't interested in localized features), might in fact be hurting it rather than helping it.

The PS3-buying crowd (those not primarily getting it as a HDM player) seems much more likely to pick up a title or two at their nearest HMW (or whatever) than those buying HD-DVD and shelf space has followed. This will again impact HD-DVD negatively when/if cheap standalones roll about because J6P won't be buying them if there aren't any media to be found easily available near the counter at his local Tesco.

This is not what I have seen in France or Germany...HD-DVD has equal or more prominant displays when I have been to MediaMarket and FNAC...

Regards,
LIP

Milt99
08-22-07, 09:04 PM
Ahhh, the AVS forum that I know and loathe is back to "normal" again.;)
At least a couple BR diehards haven't committed harakiri.
My prediction is that by Saturday everyone will have recovered and the pointless argument will be back, full on.

trgraphics
08-22-07, 09:46 PM
CEDIA is when we will here from WB. Several insiders are saying big news then and I bet that's what it will be. WB, exclusive to HD DVD. FOX is a joke, who cares what they do and Disney isn't much better. They don't support their own format, why does HD DVD need them. But, they will come around as well next year.

Michael Mullis
08-22-07, 10:13 PM
CEDIA is when we will here from WB. Several insiders are saying big news then and I bet that's what it will be. WB, exclusive to HD DVD. FOX is a joke, who cares what they do and Disney isn't much better. They don't support their own format, why does HD DVD need them. But, they will come around as well next year.


I think Warner will stay neutral UNLESS they feel all the moaning and complaining about their TotalHD stuff comes from the BDA side and they become angry about it.

That said, Warner has been preaching the benefits of neutrality for a LONG time now. And they are the ones trying to develop the dual-format discs. I don't see them going back to exclusivity unless they get pissed at one side or another.

cityscapex5
08-22-07, 10:38 PM
It would not kill BR, but it would put main stream adoption of HD media in serious trouble.

Even if Sony sells 1/4 the number of PS3's as they sold ps2's, (and they are a lot more ambitious than that), there will be 50,000,000 Blu Ray players out there! in 18 months projections indicate that HD display units will be in half of all homes, meaning movie attach rates for ps3 owners will also rise.

Its delusional to think Blu ray is going to disappear.

To Illustrate further, If Disney and Sony were the only studios producing
Blu ray movies, that is, all other studios were HD DVD exclusive, Stand alone blu ray players would be called "Disneys", and they would sell, because parents want Disney, it's the only studio people ask for by name.

My point is Sony will always have a critical mass of players, and Disney is a very strong supporter of the Blu Ray format.

well maybe the PS3 will do what it's supposed to do...play video games.

GizmoDVD
08-22-07, 10:52 PM
I think Warner will stay neutral UNLESS they feel all the moaning and complaining about their TotalHD stuff comes from the BDA side and they become angry about it.

That said, Warner has been preaching the benefits of neutrality for a LONG time now. And they are the ones trying to develop the dual-format discs. I don't see them going back to exclusivity unless they get pissed at one side or another.

Interesting how they delayed their TotalHD disc a few weeks ago...maybe they knew this was going on or planned to be HD DVD exclusive...?

Newport Peter
08-24-07, 01:28 AM
who cares about anything outside the U.S.?

tsb
08-24-07, 06:14 AM
lots of people

I have a feeling all releases will be BD only here in Taiwan. I don't think HD DVD has a chance and I doubt it even launches outside of the 360 AO. Since they will need to make separate encodes that could be a good thing. I'm sure I'll still buy loads of HD DVD catalog titles that have little chance of being released here regardless. Catalog titles aren't even available on DVD here in most rental stores. I'd bet there will be a few regoins where only one format exists. HD DVD is region free and most of Asia is region A on BD, so people in the US have a big interest in the rest of the world. Besides, what's with the nationalist view anyway?

rdjam
08-24-07, 06:24 AM
"If Warner goes HD-DVD exclusive, is it over for BD?"

...Yes.

samcan07
08-24-07, 06:30 AM
"If Warner goes HD-DVD exclusive, is it over for BD?"

...Yes.


But what if they went Blu exclusive?
That has just as much chance of happening!!!!


:rolleyes:

Haroon Malik
08-24-07, 06:34 AM
But what if they went Blu exclusive?
That has just as much chance of happening!!!!


:rolleyes:

HD-DVD has already shown that it can survive under pressure. Now they have Universal, Dreamworks, Paramount and Weinstein as exclusives.

Nobody knows if Blu-Ray can survive under pressure as they have not been in that situation.

rdjam
08-24-07, 06:35 AM
We'll see...

Noggin1980
08-24-07, 06:45 AM
But what if they went Blu exclusive?
That has just as much chance of happening!!!!


:rolleyes:

I think Warner going exclusive either way would win the war unless the other side responded with something very strong of their own.

I'm not talking about instant death for a format just that month by month the format that gets warner (if anyone) will have things swing further and further their way.

Losing Warner would destroy my faith in my format and would dramatically drop my disk buying. At the moment I recommend to friends to stay out of the format war, if HD-DVD get warner I'll be recommending they jump in right away. If Blu-ray get Warner I'll recommend they go Blu-ray but to wait for a better value and fully featured Blu-ray player unless they are happy with a games console for a DVD player.

nithr
08-24-07, 07:24 AM
not at all

sony, disney and fox is just as big if not bigger than universal, warner and paramount

sales are still in favor of blu-ray and they're only looking to increase

unless hd dvd outsells blu-ray by a lot it won't be over

and until that happens i really think the hd dvd fanboys should stop acting like ignorant *******s

MauneyM
08-24-07, 07:26 AM
At the moment I recommend to friends to stay out of the format war, if HD-DVD get warner I'll be recommending they jump in right away. If Blu-ray get Warner I'll recommend they go Blu-ray but to wait for a better value and fully featured Blu-ray player unless they are happy with a games console for a DVD player.

I think you just summed up the reason that Paramount/DW went HD DVD. HD DVD is ready for mass adoption today, while BD is still 6-12 months away from having a hardware product that can compete in the mass market. The entire industry knows that if we go through this holiday season without making a significant push towards replacing DVD, it simply won't happen. BD has nothing on the horizon that is priced to move in large numbers. Thus, the only possible way for HD media to make any real progress this year and avoid becoming stale is for the content producers to line up behind HD DVD and hope for Wal-Mart to jump in.

MauneyM
08-24-07, 07:27 AM
and until that happens i really think the hd dvd fanboys should stop acting like ignorant *******s


Why? They're just mimicing what the BD guys have been doing for the past 6 months.:confused:

lyris
08-24-07, 07:46 AM
who cares about anything outside the U.S.?
People who live outside the US, or people who might ever import a disc or two from there :rolleyes:

For the record, I live in the UK and import all my HD DVDs and Blu-ray Discs from the USA (in fact thanks to Blu-ray's region locking, I have to buy them from America to guarantee they'll play on my American BD player ;) ), but I am very much in the minority. Most people want to just walk into a store and buy discs off the shelf.

rlwimi
08-24-07, 07:54 AM
I think you just summed up the reason that Paramount/DW went HD DVD. HD DVD is ready for mass adoption today, while BD is still 6-12 months away from having a hardware product that can compete in the mass market. The entire industry knows that if we go through this holiday season without making a significant push towards replacing DVD, it simply won't happen. BD has nothing on the horizon that is priced to move in large numbers. Thus, the only possible way for HD media to make any real progress this year and avoid becoming stale is for the content producers to line up behind HD DVD and hope for Wal-Mart to jump in.

Hilarious!

BluRay continues to destroy HD-DVD in both hardware and software and the margins continue to grow for BluRay.

LOL, 'jump in'. Stupid fanboys.

sknight1
08-24-07, 07:54 AM
HD-DVD has already shown that it can survive under pressure. Now they have Universal, Dreamworks, Paramount and Weinstein as exclusives.

Nobody knows if Blu-Ray can survive under pressure as they have not been in that situation.

The P-man has stated that Grindhouse will be out on Blu-ray -- so I think Weinstein will be format neutral soon.

LiquidX
08-24-07, 07:57 AM
Hilarious!

BluRay continues to destroy HD-DVD in both hardware and software and the margins continue to grow for BluRay.

LOL, 'jump in'. Stupid fanboys.

Destroy? I'd like what you're smoking. Blu Ray has much more players sold to consumers, but a 2-1 margin in software is hardly destroyed.

Ironic you called some "stupid fanboys"... :rolleyes:

rlwimi
08-24-07, 08:01 AM
Destroy? I'd like what you're smoking. Blu Ray has much more players sold to consumers, but a 2-1 margin in software is hardly destroyed.

Ironic you called some "stupid fanboys"... :rolleyes:

Oh yes, the rallying cry of a dead format's fans. You're only kicking our ass by X but you really should be by Y.

Losers, terminal losers.

LiquidX
08-24-07, 08:06 AM
Oh yes, the rallying cry of a dead format's fans. You're only kicking our ass by X but you really should be by Y.

Losers, terminal losers.

Clearly your IQ is no better than a retarded mouse on PCP.

Welcome to my ignore list, troll.

nithr
08-24-07, 08:27 AM
Why? They're just mimicing what the BD guys have been doing for the past 6 months.:confused:

not really

the hd dvd fanboys started it before bd took over in sales, now it's like they've gotten a adrenaline injection and is back to how you were then

SamwisetheBrave
08-24-07, 08:31 AM
Oh yes, the rallying cry of a dead format's fans. You're only kicking our ass by X but you really should be by Y.

Losers, terminal losers.

Typical blu fan behavior.

CPR Jose Ortiz
08-24-07, 08:36 AM
You can sell less HD DVD movies and make more of a profit than selling double the Blu Ray titles. Just ask Warner Bros. in their sale of 300 HD DVD vs Blu Ray.

Even when selling less HD DVDs...they made more money.

WayneL
08-24-07, 08:38 AM
Warner does't seem to need Regional Coding, BD+, nor expensive BD-50's. They would like to support low-cost, fully-functional, interactive players that have some hope of being widely purchased.

If they want to end this war quickly, and to their benefit, they should go exclusive HD DVD now.

Lee Stewart
08-24-07, 09:21 AM
So what happens if today comes and goes with no WB announcement?

Damed
08-24-07, 09:22 AM
So what happens if today comes and goes with no WB announcement?

All eyes and ears will be focused on CEDIA.

sivartk
08-24-07, 09:22 AM
I think that the word "IF" should be banned from thread titles, its really tiresome :(