Wowza. Do the math.

Big bucks. Clearly, M$/HD DVD PRG had to do something to stem the tide, as HD DVDs death was to be confirmed shortly after XMAS (sans a blockbuster title other that "Transformers" -- sorry folks, "Knocked up" doesn't count).

But $500? $400? $300?

What's the correct projected figure?

Edit: Sorry, title should read "With $150M for ~300K HD DVD players, thats $500/user"

So you're saying they won't sell more players?

Drop the K from your title. It's $500 not $500K.

Your logic assumes that 0 more HD DVD players will ever be sold.

Want another giant but meaningless number.
Sony is losing about $200 per console * 5:1 ratio on PS3 to standalones.
Sony is "buying" the format war by paying $1000 per player.

Wowza. Do the math.

Big bucks. Clearly, M$/HD DVD PRG had to do something to stem the tide, as HD DVDs death was to be confirmed shortly after XMAS (sans a blockbuster title other that "Transformers" -- sorry folks, "Knocked up" doesn't count).


Bourne Ultimatum?

Wowza. Do the math.

Big bucks. Clearly, M$/HD DVD PRG had to do something to stem the tide, as HD DVDs death was to be confirmed shortly after XMAS (sans a blockbuster title other that "Transformers" -- sorry folks, "Knocked up" doesn't count).

But $500? $400? $300?

What's the correct projected figure?

Edit: Sorry, title should read "With $150M for ~300K HD DVD players, thats $500/user"Maybe you should ask Sony - they have more experience buying the allegiance of movie studios. :)

Seriously, as Amir said, if sales stay at current levels until the end of 2008, everyone is in trouble.

So you're saying they won't sell more players?

No, I am saying that it is totally amazing that M$/HD DVD has the big bucks to influence a tiny, tiny market, as evidenced by the current players stats.

Sure, my initial number of ~300K players may be off, but it still establishes a $/user ratio of several hundred $.

That's amazing ... either they are a) desperate, or b) they know something that the rest of us don't.

Peeps talk about subsidies of the Tosh player ($299, or *much* less with free movies), but at a new subsidy (as per the numbers $300 or so for Paramount), this pales by comparison.

It's fascinating!

Assuming Sony was offered a chance to counter the offer, can we surmise they didn't feel BD owners were worth as much as the HD DVD PRG reckoned HD DVD users were?

BD owners aren't you outraged by this slap in the face!?












Seriously though... wtf is this crap?

Maybe you should ask Sony - they have more experience buying the allegiance of movie studios. :)


Sorry, a "smiley" doesn't absolve you of your claim. Prove it ... we already have the proof on Paramount/DW taking a $150M payola ... can you please provide any proof against your Sony accusation... and good Lord man, Sony is not the BDA ...

Seriously, as Amir said, if sales stay at current levels until the end of 2008, everyone is in trouble.

... and why would we expect anything else from the company that wants physical media to be dead ASAP? Of course IMHO, M$ wants to control the DRM'ed, time-controlled media, just like DiVX did, when they competed against DVD.

No, I am saying that it is totally amazing that M$/HD DVD has the big bucks to influence a tiny, tiny market, as evidenced by the current players stats.

Sure, my initial number of ~300K players may be off, but it still establishes a $/user ratio of several hundred $.

That's amazing ... either they are a) desperate, or b) they know something that the rest of us don't.

Peeps talk about subsidies of the Tosh player ($299, or *much* less with free movies), but at a new subsidy (as per the numbers $300 or so for Paramount), this pales by comparison.

It's fascinating!

The #1 movie studio abandoned BD for the payment of $150M! A format is supposed to be the successor of DVD. If BD was truly strategic, they would not have taken the $150M, like apparently Universal did not take what the BDA gave them....simple as that.

You can think about $/user. But have you thought that there are 2 BD players for each BD disk sold? Perhaps even more!!!! That would put a cost of $400-$1000 (depending on who you go by) to Sony for each BD disk sold....that is not sustainable my friend :eek:

Assuming Sony was offered a chance to counter the offer, can we surmise they didn't feel BD owners were worth as much as the HD DVD PRG reckoned HD DVD users were?

BD owners aren't you outraged by this slap in the face!?



Do the math. For current users (assuming ~300K HD DVD players or so), they're paying ~$500 or so per user. Does this make any sense? If you believe that with a 2:1 sales ratio of movies currently in BDs favour, maybe they could have payed less ... ~$250, or so. Maybe they bid, maybe they didn't, but ~ $500/current-user, this must be desparation.

But who would fault this studio? It's free money. Take it. In a dozen or so months, release again. Rape 'em again?

Sorry, a "smiley" doesn't absolve you of your claim. Prove it ... we already have the proof on Paramount/DW taking a $150M payola ... can you please provide any proof against your Sony accusation... and good Lord man, Sony is not the BDA ...



... and why would we expect anything else from the company that wants physical media to be dead ASAP? Of course IMHO, M$ wants to control the DRM'ed, time-controlled media, just like DiVX did, when they competed against DVD.

Where is your proof? unnamed execs and Bill Hint don't count? These execs could be internal BDA lobbyists who lost their case....happens all the time. Viacom made a very deliberate decision. To go neutral and then exclusive is very critical....no one has EVER gone from that to neutral again!

Do the math. For current users (assuming ~300K HD DVD players or so), they're paying ~$500 or so per user. Does this make any sense? If you believe that with a 2:1 sales ratio of movies currently in BDs favour, maybe they could have payed less ... ~$250, or so. Maybe they bid, maybe they didn't, but ~ $500/current-user, this must be desparation.

But who would fault this studio? It's free money. Take it. In a dozen or so months, release again. Rape 'em again?

You are clearly in denial of reality....of the situation. This is BAD for the BDA. Did you notice - BDA and BAD have the same letters? :D

Do the math. For current users (assuming ~300K HD DVD players or so), they're paying ~$500 or so per user. Does this make any sense? If you believe that with a 2:1 sales ratio of movies currently in BDs favour, maybe they could have payed less ... ~$250, or so. Maybe they bid, maybe they didn't, but ~ $500/current-user, this must be desparation.

But who would fault this studio? It's free money. Take it. In a dozen or so months, release again. Rape 'em again?

But why oh why did Sony hang their beloved user base out to dry! oh god the humanity, just, can't, stop, sobbing. Oh god release me from this torture! BDA why hath thou forsaken me!

http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/5144/smurfocalypseol0.jpg


LOL, that's a funny picture.

What IS that smurf hollering?

STELLLLLLLLLLAAAAAAAA!

The #1 movie studio abandoned BD for the payment of $150M! A format is supposed to be the successor of DVD. If BD was truly strategic, they would not have taken the $150M, like apparently Universal did not take what the BDA gave them....simple as that.

You can think about $/user. But have you thought that there are 2 BD players for each BD disk sold? Perhaps even more!!!! That would put a cost of $400-$1000 (depending on who you go by) to Sony for each BD disk sold....that is not sustainable my friend :eek:

Hello???? Plazman ... as a marketing dude, I have rarely been able to understand your protestations.

Can you please try to re-phrase? Stuff like "A format is supposed to be the successor of DVD. If BD was truly strategic, they would not have taken the $150M, like apparently Universal did not take what the BDA gave them....simple as that."

Now, WTF does that mean? Hint to Plazman ... duh, BDA didn't take the $150M, Paramount did. etc.

Hello???? Plazman ... as a marketing dude, I have rarely been able to understand your protestations.

Can you please try to re-phrase? Stuff like "A format is supposed to be the successor of DVD. If BD was truly strategic, they would not have taken the $150M, like apparently Universal did not take what the BDA gave them....simple as that."

Now, WTF does that mean? Hint to Plazman ... duh, BDA didn't take the $150M, Paramount did. etc.

If I might be so bold, I think he's alluding to the BDA stating that Blu-ray would replace DVD within a few years. One would imagine that prospect would have easily been worth $150 mil; if they truly thought it was an attainable goal.

You are clearly in denial of reality....of the situation. This is BAD for the BDA. Did you notice - BDA and BAD have the same letters? :D

OK, BDA == BAD ... LOL.

And you claim that I am "clearly in denial of reality".

But seriously, how do you feel about a format that has to pay several hundreds of dollars (based on current numbers, ~$300-$500)to get just one studio to support current users?

That's more than the current Tosh player @$299 ( with 5 free movies). Doesn't that smack of total desperation?

OK, BDA == BAD ... LOL.

And you claim that I am "clearly in denial of reality".

But seriously, how do you feel about a format that has to pay several hundreds of dollars (based on current numbers, ~$300-$500)to get just one studio to support current users?

That's more than the current Tosh player @$299 ( with 5 free movies). Doesn't that smack of total desperation?


Too funny. So BDA is not bad but MS and HDDVD PG is?

OK when BDA buys people off and provides marketing incentives, subisdies, etc but not OK for HD DVD?

It sounds like the only time that these subversive activities are ok is when BDA is doing them.

BTW, MS rumor is totally unsubstantiated and has been publicly denied by Amir who is an MS VP. Maybe you should call up your buddy Bill Hunt and tell him to do a retraction before his ass gets sued for libel.

But why oh why did Sony hang their beloved user base out to dry! oh god the humanity, just, can't, stop, sobbing. Oh god release me from this torture! BDA why hath thou forsaken me!

@ ~$300-$500 per current user? That's makes sense when a Tosh $299 player is available with 5 free movies ??? Desperation.

Paramount/DW must be laughing all the way to the bank. Timed release, without the real Spielberg meat ...; and get to rape-em again on the release on BD, once the market is bigger.

Hell, If I'd been at Paramount/DW, I'd think I'd take it too. Free money. Too easy.

Hell, If I'd been at Paramount/DW, I'd think I'd take it too. Free money. Too easy.

Exactly! Genius not desperation.

@ ~$300-$500 per current user? That's makes sense when a Tosh $299 player is available with 5 free movies ??? Desperation.

Paramount/DW must be laughing all the way to the bank. Timed release, without the real Spielberg meat ...; and get to rape-em again on the release on BD, once the market is bigger.

Hell, If I'd been at Paramount/DW, I'd think I'd take it too. Free money. Too easy.

Uh, did you find some source verifying that P/DW admitted taking $150M, or the "Viacom" insiders identifying who gave it? So far just more BD BS AFAIK

Too funny. So BDA is not bad but MS and HDDVD PG is?

OK when BDA buys people off and provides marketing incentives, subisdies, etc but not OK for HD DVD?

It sounds like the only time that these subversive activities are ok is when BDA is doing them.

BTW, MS rumor is totally unsubstantiated and has been publicly denied by Amir who is an MS VP. Maybe you should call up your buddy Bill Hunt and tell him to do a retraction before his ass gets sued for libel.

Stop! I wasn't the one who claimed BDA == BAD ...

As for HD DVD buying people off, good for them, we finally have a start-of-a-fight happening, because if they didn't do that, this war was gonna end post-XMAS. I'm not happy about it, but I understand it ... my main point was that this cost them some uber/major $$$ to do that (on order of $300-$500 per current user). This is unprecedented.

As for M$, ask them again if they have provided any direct or indirect support. You'll likely get a different answer, but of course, I don't know for sure ... similar to you, who can't prove for sure, that Sony is subsidizing Disney/Fox/etc.

Wowza. Do the math.

Big bucks. Clearly, M$/HD DVD PRG had to do something to stem the tide, as HD DVDs death was to be confirmed shortly after XMAS (sans a blockbuster title other that "Transformers" -- sorry folks, "Knocked up" doesn't count).

But $500? $400? $300?

What's the correct projected figure?

Edit: Sorry, title should read "With $150M for ~300K HD DVD players, thats $500/user"

OK, can you "do the math" for Disney and Fox now?

Thanks in advance. ;)


(Wait for it.....wait for it....)

As for M$, ask them again if they have provided any direct or indirect support. You'll likely get a different answer, but of course, I don't know for sure ... similar to you, who can't prove for sure, that Sony is subsidizing Disney/Fox/etc.
Amirm:
"Yes, I am denying that too. We didn't pay them. We didn't pay anyone else to pay them. We didn't give them $50M worth of MS software either. Nor did we pave their parking lot for them for free. We didn't buy an apartment for their execs in Paris. Or pay to have a pool put in their house for free. Or send their kids to college. Or give them free employment at Microsoft. Anything else I missed?

Come on people. Don't you know that I anticipate folks being smart enough to ask me about every possibility before I made the first statement? I am confident of our stance and ethical conduct here or I would not risk my job under my real name to state such defentive answers.

For others coming to my defence, it is much appreciated. "

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=11370637&postcount=2370

Exactly! Genius not desperation.

Genius? Not! This is a major $$$ windfall for the studio ("mana from heaven", even without Spielberg), with little $$$ cost over the long term (especially later, when they re-release on BD).

Desperation on HD DVD PRG's part? I suspect so. Don't confuse Paramounts motivations vs. HD DVD PRg/M$.

No, I am saying that it is totally amazing that M$/HD DVD has the big bucks to influence a tiny, tiny market, as evidenced by the current players stats.

Sure, my initial number of ~300K players may be off, but it still establishes a $/user ratio of several hundred $.

That's amazing ... either they are a) desperate, or b) they know something that the rest of us don't.

Peeps talk about subsidies of the Tosh player ($299, or *much* less with free movies), but at a new subsidy (as per the numbers $300 or so for Paramount), this pales by comparison.

It's fascinating!

Simple minded post.

Its called LONG term strategy.

I'm not happy about it, but I understand it ... my main point was that this cost them some uber/major $$$ to do that (on order of $300-$500 per current user). This is unprecedented.

Dividing $150M by an estimated number of current users is not meaningful or useful at all. Look at the big picture and long term strategy. Try to put it into perspective by looking at how much "skin" the parties in question already have in the game and what they have to lose, not just in dollars but in reputation/status.

btp

Genius? Not! This is a major $$$ windfall for the studio ("mana from heaven", even without Spielberg), with little $$$ cost over the long term (especially later, when they re-release on BD).

Desperation on HD DVD PRG's part? I suspect so. Don't confuse Paramounts motivations vs. HD DVD PRg/M$.

Don't mistake laughter for confusion. Genius I tell you!

Ilka, there you have a quote from Microsoft VP answering your question...is that not enough for you?

Why don't you smurfs go back home to blu-ray.com?

Amirm:
"Yes, I am denying that too. We didn't pay them. We didn't pay anyone else to pay them. We didn't give them $50M worth of MS software either. Nor did we pave their parking lot for them for free. We didn't buy an apartment for their execs in Paris. Or pay to have a pool put in their house for free. Or send their kids to college. Or give them free employment at Microsoft. Anything else I missed?

Come on people. Don't you know that I anticipate folks being smart enough to ask me about every possibility before I made the first statement? I am confident of our stance and ethical conduct here or I would not risk my job under my real name to state such defentive answers.

For others coming to my defence, it is much appreciated. "

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=11370637&postcount=2370

OK, well ... let's take it at post value. My apologies, I stand corrected.

So, "We didn't pay anyone else to pay them."

This get curiouser and curiouser yet again.

Sounds like BillHunt and Amir need to have a chat ...

Dividing $150M by an estimated number of current users is not meaningful or useful at all. Look at the big picture and long term strategy. Try to put it into perspective by looking at how much "skin" the parties in question already have in the game and what they have to lose, not just in dollars but in reputation/status.

btp

Look, I am not going to argue about that crappy arguement about h/w players: the fact remains, Blu-ray is outselling 2+:1.

As to your good point of "skin" in the game, I agree ... most studios can be bought, but at what price/user?

Based on current (dismal HD DVD, vis a vis software sales stats), this is a great short-term move for Paramount. Rape 'em and run.

Ilka, there you have a quote from Microsoft VP answering your question...is that not enough for you?

Yes, it will, but based on some further deletes ...

Seems like my question, and your response are gone.

Quel surprise here.

Please post your earlier response again.

1 million HD DVD sold X $30/disc = $30 million gross for HD DVD
3 million HDM sold X $30/disc = $90 million gross for BD & HD DVD

If Paramount has 10% of the HDM market, then they have made $9 million. The $150 million payment is 16.7x what they have made so far. It's a sweet deal for Paramount.

Ilka, there you have a quote from Microsoft VP answering your question...is that not enough for you?

I don't hold a guy that openly trashes the competition (recently taunting the Blu-Ray insiders to reveal their names) in very high regard. I know he and his subordinates are worshiped on this forum but I have no use for giant egos and dishonest politicking.

Microsoft didn't write a check but anyone that thinks they aren't involved in this payoff doesn't know Microsoft very well.

I don't hold a guy that openly trashes the competition (recently taunting the Blu-Ray insiders to reveal their names) in very high regard. I know he and his subordinates are worshiped on this forum but I have no use for giant egos and dishonest politicking.

Microsoft didn't write a check but anyone that thinks they aren't involved in this payoff doesn't know Microsoft very well.


Oh yes, lets slam the guy who doesn't hide behind an anonymous handle. Most BD insiders won't even indicate which company they work for. Every "insider" should post the company they work for and a general description of the work they do for them.

And the biggest voice of BD on the Internet, Bill the Shill Hunt is just a total fool now. HD DVD will cease to be by year's end, he loudly claims, and now he's trying to save face because he looks like an ass.

That crow must taste pretty good because you BD guys keep slurping it up. I remember all the grave dancing going on at AVS by BD and PS3 fanbois when the Blockbuster and Target deals were announced while the majority of HD DVD fans here kept their composure about the whole thing. Certainly not much "waaaaa, I'm going to boycott the alternative format till the end of time" or "HDM is doomed" crying we've been hearing from ticked off PS3 owners since yesterday.

The Blockbuster/Target thing was a weak opening salvo in a battle for this holiday sales season. The shot fired today was more of a 100 megaton bunker buster.

I can't wait to hear what Cedia offers us. We've already been hearing there will be more good news. If Warner announces they are dropping BD I'm going to laugh my nuts off while the BD brain trust goes into a total melt down.

while the BD brain trust goes into a total melt down.
Oxymoron - like jumbo shrimp. :D


And the biggest voice of BD on the Internet, Bill the Shill Hunt is just a total fool now.
Now? I thought the video of him asking questions to the HD DVD folks pretty much sealed that deal.

Justifying the $150mm as a cost per disc sale makes no sense.

The BDA loses

. $1-1.5B in gaming due to PS3 loses

. Delayed start of PS3 by including Blu-ray player will also cost billions

. Replication subsidies

. Intensive advertising and promotion for a year

. Incentives to studios, Blockbuster, etc.

Total BDA funding and opportunity losses - well over $3B+

It makes the $150MM look llike peanuts.

This thread is headed for closing IMO.

Geez, you guys are slow.

$150M for one major.

How much will it cost now for BDA to keep Warner, Fox, or Disney? HD DVD has 18 months of Paramount/DW, and they only have one other exclusive major studio to fund in the near future - Universal. OTOH, BDA would have to pay off Fox, Lionsgate, Disney, and Warner, whose deals are likely to be expiring shortly.

BDA burned their marketing capital early, on a bunch of low-value targets. Much of the value gained from those efforts is about to expire. HD DVD waited until there was enough of a market to matter, then spent a big chunk of it on one VERY high-profile target.

Examples:

> PS3 as a loss-leader. Great impact at the outset, but as SA players become more popular, the PS3 effect will fade. In the long-run, the impact of the PS3 vs SA players will be a footnote. Given the subsidies, they'd better hope they sell a bunch of games for it.
> Endcaps at BB/CC, etc. Why would you spend big $$$ to get a buzz around a product that's priced at 3x the mainstream buyers' budget? Mass adoption won't happen at $1K/player, so why waste the effort? You real market (early adopters) learn from other outlets, anyway.
> Target - Makes for a decent press release, but how many people actually buy video players at Target? Of those, how many are high-end? What's the targeted demographic here?
> Blockbuster - Nice try, but now they've backed BB into a corner. BB can't be happy now that they have no HD solution for Universal, Weinstein (their DVD exclusive partner), Paramount, and Dreamworks. Expect BB to either renege on the deal or back out of HD completely for a while.

OTOH:

> HD DVD has waited until recently to start pushing their hardware at the B&M stores, with apparent good results. They waited until their price was getting into the range of the BB/CC target demographic, then started hitting hard with $100 off deals, throwing in the player with a HDTV, endcaps, weekend sale flyers, etc.
> HD DVD has continued to push prices down to move to mass adoption as quickly as possible. Given their volumes and the sales of the A20 and XA2, it's likely that they have operated fairly close to break-even (though they may have subsidized somewhat). Certainly, they haven't given up anywhere near as much $$$/player as Sony has.
> After waiting for enough of an installed base of players to be in the market, they have gotten the #1 studio on board as an exclusive.

It would take an awful lot of endcap purchases to make up for the impact of the Paramount/DW announcement. Given that Sony/BDA has already burned a lot of $$$ out of their war chest, I think (speculation) that it's doubtful that they could respond, and certainly not with enough to continue to buy the exclusivity of their whole current slate of major studios.

I can't wait to see the next moves - this is a fantastic marketing case study.

This thread is headed for closing IMO.

Hope it is closed. Another worthless thread. Bunch of them on the board lately isn't there?

Geez, you guys are slow.

$150M for one major.

How much will it cost now for BDA to keep Warner, Fox, or Disney? HD DVD has 18 months of Paramount/DW, and they only have one other exclusive major studio to fund in the near future - Universal. OTOH, BDA would have to pay off Fox, Lionsgate, Disney, and Warner, whose deals are likely to be expiring shortly.

BDA burned their marketing capital early, on a bunch of low-value targets. Much of the value gained from those efforts is about to expire. HD DVD waited until there was enough of a market to matter, then spent a big chunk of it on one VERY high-profile target.

Examples:

> PS3 as a loss-leader. Great impact at the outset, but as SA players become more popular, the PS3 effect will fade. In the long-run, the impact of the PS3 vs SA players will be a footnote. Given the subsidies, they'd better hope they sell a bunch of games for it.
> Endcaps at BB/CC, etc. Why would you spend big $$$ to get a buzz around a product that's priced at 3x the mainstream buyers' budget? Mass adoption won't happen at $1K/player, so why waste the effort? You real market (early adopters) learn from other outlets, anyway.
> Target - Makes for a decent press release, but how many people actually buy video players at Target? Of those, how many are high-end? What's the targeted demographic here?
> Blockbuster - Nice try, but now they've backed BB into a corner. BB can't be happy now that they have no HD solution for Universal, Weinstein (their DVD exclusive partner), Paramount, and Dreamworks. Expect BB to either renege on the deal or back out of HD completely for a while.

OTOH:

> HD DVD has waited until recently to start pushing their hardware at the B&M stores, with apparent good results. They waited until their price was getting into the range of the BB/CC target demographic, then started hitting hard with $100 off deals, throwing in the player with a HDTV, endcaps, weekend sale flyers, etc.
> HD DVD has continued to push prices down to move to mass adoption as quickly as possible. Given their volumes and the sales of the A20 and XA2, it's likely that they have operated fairly close to break-even (though they may have subsidized somewhat). Certainly, they haven't given up anywhere near as much $$$/player as Sony has.
> After waiting for enough of an installed base of players to be in the market, they have gotten the #1 studio on board as an exclusive.

It would take an awful lot of endcap purchases to make up for the impact of the Paramount/DW announcement. Given that Sony/BDA has already burned a lot of $$$ out of their war chest, I think (speculation) that it's doubtful that they could respond, and certainly not with enough to continue to buy the exclusivity of their whole current slate of major studios.

I can't wait to see the next moves - this is a fantastic marketing case study.

Brilliant analysis!

Ilka,

I dont understand the point you are trying to make. Most BD supporters saw nothing wrong with the BDA apparently "buying" the exclusive support of some studios.

2nd, MS is awash in cash. $150 million is chump change.

3rd, $150 million is a very small investment for the potential payoff. Whether it succeeds is a different story, but a one time investment of $150 million for a share of a multi-billion dollar market is a reasonable gamble.

b) they know something that the rest of us don't.

why would that surprise you? I always found prounouncements of "there is no way HD can reverse the tide of BD" or "What is HD going to do to reverse the situation, - there is nothing they can do" amusing because it was narrow thinking and we are, for the most part, a bunch of ignorant outsiders, blowing a lot of hot air (myself included). Even the supposed insiders are only inside in a limited manner. The "real" insiders arent talking.

Geez, you guys are slow.

$150M for one major.

How much will it cost now for BDA to keep Warner, Fox, or Disney? HD DVD has 18 months of Paramount/DW, and they only have one other exclusive major studio to fund in the near future - Universal. OTOH, BDA would have to pay off Fox, Lionsgate, Disney, and Warner, whose deals are likely to be expiring shortly.

BDA burned their marketing capital early, on a bunch of low-value targets. Much of the value gained from those efforts is about to expire. HD DVD waited until there was enough of a market to matter, then spent a big chunk of it on one VERY high-profile target.

Examples:

> PS3 as a loss-leader. Great impact at the outset, but as SA players become more popular, the PS3 effect will fade. In the long-run, the impact of the PS3 vs SA players will be a footnote. Given the subsidies, they'd better hope they sell a bunch of games for it.
> Endcaps at BB/CC, etc. Why would you spend big $$$ to get a buzz around a product that's priced at 3x the mainstream buyers' budget? Mass adoption won't happen at $1K/player, so why waste the effort? You real market (early adopters) learn from other outlets, anyway.
> Target - Makes for a decent press release, but how many people actually buy video players at Target? Of those, how many are high-end? What's the targeted demographic here?
> Blockbuster - Nice try, but now they've backed BB into a corner. BB can't be happy now that they have no HD solution for Universal, Weinstein (their DVD exclusive partner), Paramount, and Dreamworks. Expect BB to either renege on the deal or back out of HD completely for a while.

OTOH:

> HD DVD has waited until recently to start pushing their hardware at the B&M stores, with apparent good results. They waited until their price was getting into the range of the BB/CC target demographic, then started hitting hard with $100 off deals, throwing in the player with a HDTV, endcaps, weekend sale flyers, etc.
> HD DVD has continued to push prices down to move to mass adoption as quickly as possible. Given their volumes and the sales of the A20 and XA2, it's likely that they have operated fairly close to break-even (though they may have subsidized somewhat). Certainly, they haven't given up anywhere near as much $$$/player as Sony has.
> After waiting for enough of an installed base of players to be in the market, they have gotten the #1 studio on board as an exclusive.

It would take an awful lot of endcap purchases to make up for the impact of the Paramount/DW announcement. Given that Sony/BDA has already burned a lot of $$$ out of their war chest, I think (speculation) that it's doubtful that they could respond, and certainly not with enough to continue to buy the exclusivity of their whole current slate of major studios.

I can't wait to see the next moves - this is a fantastic marketing case study.

Agree with most of that . . . and this is fascinating to watch. IMHO, Sony/BDA were going for the early round knockout with big punches early. HD DVD survived and Sony/BDA look like they're (potentially) outta' gas (or $).

But seriously, how do you feel about a format that has to pay several hundreds of dollars (based on current numbers, ~$300-$500)to get just one studio to support current users?

That's just silly. If the total market for HD DVD players is just a couple of hundred thousand, and HD DVD doesn't sell any additonal players which seems to be your assumption, it would be a crazy stupid deal. This is not a deal for today's users. It is a deal for tomorrow's masses. If the market gets up in the 10's of millions in the near future and starts to replace DVD, which is the only reason they would make this deal. then the cost for future users may be $10 or less.

One thing I think the reported $150 million could put into perspective is what Toshiba could do if they want to up the bandwidth or space in the base spec and the only thing holding them back is gen one units (HD-A1 and HD-XA1). Even if it cost them $300 on average each to replace 66,000 of those it would be under $20 million. And might help them get Disney. At the very least I would like to see them go to DL34 discs and up their overall bandwidth limitation, but would prefer to see them go up to something at least close to equivalent to 1.5x spin rate with increased bandwidth. I don't know what would be compatible with what, but if it is just the gen one units that would be a problem, I would like to see them go ahead and do it and finance it in some way.

If they told me that by sending my HD-A1 in with a receipt for a new unit I would get a rebate for $150 or $200, I would be happy to do it if that allowed them to improve their limitations for mastering movies going forward. I would even be happy with a $100 rebate, but others would probably need something closer to the cost of a new player to be happy.

--Darin

I personally think if Tosh/MS paid paramount that much money that it will give them free rain to include those movies of paramounts with there players, kinda like giving a free copy of transformers with every player sold this holiday season to kinda sweetin a 199 deal. or something like that.

darin,

Even if it cost them $300 on average each to replace 66,000 of those it would be under $20 million. And might help them get Disney. At the very least I would like to see them go to DL34 discs and up their overall bandwidth limitation, but would prefer to see them go up to something at least close to equivalent to 1.5x spin rate with increased bandwidth. I don't know what would be compatible with what, but if it is just the gen one units that would be a problem, I would like to see them go ahead and do it and finance it in some way.

No one, except the people here know the specs at all, and even fewer care about spin rates, even though they may be important. What you suggest would not have changed much, and as such, would not have been a good investment. Besides, the basic argument has been BD will win on content - content is king, etc. So it was smart to buy a couple of studios.

If they told me that by sending my HD-A1 in with a receipt for a new unit I would get a rebate for $150 or $200, I would be happy to do it if that allowed them to improve their limitations for mastering movies going forward. I would even be happy with a $100 rebate, but others would probably need something closer to the cost of a new player to be happy.

again, your average consumer doesnt know and doesnt care.

I personally think if Tosh/MS paid paramount that much money that it will give them free rain to include those movies of paramounts with there players, kinda like giving a free copy of transformers with every player sold this holiday season to kinda sweetin a 199 deal. or something like that.

I want some free rain, I'm parched! :)

Isn't the 300,000 HD DVD number outdated? It was ~170,000 HD DVD stand alones when last announced and ~155,000 360 HD DVD add-ons back in late June BEFORE sales spiked due to the promotional push. We're probably closer to 400,000 by now, if not 500,000.

No one, except the people here know the specs at all, and even fewer care about spin rates, even though they may be important. What you suggest would not have changed much, and as such, would not have been a good investment. Besides, the basic argument has been BD will win on content - content is king, etc. So it was smart to buy a couple of studios.

again, your average consumer doesnt know and doesnt care.Did you miss that Disney knows about the bitrate difference and has publicly given this as one of the reasons they support Blu-ray? Care to address that?

--Darin

One thing I think the reported $150 million could put into perspective is what Toshiba could do if they want to up the bandwidth or space in the base spec and the only thing holding them back is gen one units (HD-A1 and HD-XA1). Even if it cost them $300 on average each to replace 66,000 of those it would be under $20 million. And might help them get Disney. At the very least I would like to see them go to DL34 discs and up their overall bandwidth limitation, but would prefer to see them go up to something at least close to equivalent to 1.5x spin rate with increased bandwidth. I don't know what would be compatible with what, but if it is just the gen one units that would be a problem, I would like to see them go ahead and do it and finance it in some way.

If they told me that by sending my HD-A1 in with a receipt for a new unit I would get a rebate for $150 or $200, I would be happy to do it if that allowed them to improve their limitations for mastering movies going forward. I would even be happy with a $100 rebate, but others would probably need something closer to the cost of a new player to be happy.

--Darin


Darin, IMO there is a strong possibility that you may get your wish....it is NOT a concidence that Disney said they were supporting BD for space and bit rate...Toshiba and the DVD Forum have the work cut out for them. I believe it will be Q1 next year....JMHO.

Did you miss that Disney knows about the bitrate difference and has publicly given this as one of the reasons they support Blu-ray? Care to address that?

--Darin

Come on Darin. In the interview with an Australian Disney executive who gushes about BD the bitrate and storage capacity only get a brief mention. He even makes an ass of himself claiming that when there are explosions onscreen and such that only the BD bitrate can keep up. That's just flat out not true although apparently it makes for good marketing buzz speak at Disney.

He spends much more time talking about the interactive BD Live aspects of BD, internet connectivity, etc. All features that HD DVD has today and BD won't have for some time.

darin,

Did you miss that Disney knows about the bitrate difference and has publicly given this as one of the reasons they support Blu-ray? Care to address that?

I did address it. I said your average consumer didnt care, and they dont care about spin rate. As a result, spending money to give HD DVD owners a new player with a higher spin rate isnt going to do anything to change the situation.