Normal, non-insane, non-enthusiasts of respectable intelligence (so people who AREN'T us ;)) come to this conclusion: stay out of the format war (http://consumerist.com/consumer/format-wars/now-is-a-good-time-to-stay-out-of-the-hd-dvdblu+ray-war-291775.php).

Rationalize all you want, but this thinking is happening right now, it's very real, and it's killing HDM. The only place where people DON'T think the format war is a total joke is on this site. That's bad news.

Thanks Paramount.

Rule 1: If you think you've found the answer to things in a blog, reassessment is required.

Rule 1: If you think you've found the answer to things in a blog, reassessment is required.

But an enthusiast forum has all the answers, of course...

Multiple formats didn't stop 100M people buying the PS2.

I think many people (anyone who was paying attention, but not a big HD Movie fan) already had the idea to stay out. I agree that this latest move adds to the uncertainty. Had Uni went neutral instead, I suspect it would have sped up adoption and helped the industry as a whole; however the adoption is going to be slow regardless; so I don't know how much this war is slowing things. Most people don't have the interest or display to see an improvement over DVD; and certainly can't think of why they should pay more or be inconvenienced in any way by choosing HD. HDTV adoption has been very slow, and many people who have it don't have an HD feed.

So to say without the war everybody would be buying HD Media is just not realistic, IMO.

Multiple formats didn't stop 100M people buying the PS2.

US PS2 sales to date: 38 million
US DVD player sales to date: 130 million

Normal, non-insane, non-enthusiasts of respectable intelligence (so people who AREN'T us ;)) come to this conclusion: stay out of the format war (http://consumerist.com/consumer/format-wars/now-is-a-good-time-to-stay-out-of-the-hd-dvdblu+ray-war-291775.php).

Rationalize all you want, but this thinking is happening right now, it's very real, and it's killing HDM. The only place where people DON'T think the format war is a total joke is on this site. That's bad news.

Most of us want mass adoption of HD media, but I don't think the BD infrastructure can support it. I think that HD DVD can.

I also think that Paramount has looked into all of this, and they have very good reasons for doing what they have.

I think the BDA is a house of cards and lies, and I think Paramount has taken the first real step toward ending this format war by effectively causing the Blu Ray side to 'blink' first. Many people were waiting for one side to blink.

Having a huge formerly neutral studio like Paramount close up shop on Blu Ray is going to go a long way to convince people that HD DVD is the right choice, and that will increase HD media adoption above and beyond what it would have been otherwise.

Thanks Paramount

You are right to thank them (in a non sarcastic way) if you really care about mass adoption of HD media.

I don't want mass adoption. I want something slightly above niche. enough buyers to get the movies but not enough where studios can stop giving a damn about quality.

The format war rules. Better software and hardware at cheaper prices.

If people want something bad enough, they'll buy it regardless of the 'war' i.e. the hardcore enthusiasts.

There are also people who are not capable of rational thought and are using the 'war' as an excuse to stay out. The only excuse that's valid to me is the high prices.

Then there are people who just don't care/know enough about the differences to want to get in regardless of the 'war'. It's not the superior PQ/AQ that will draw them in. I think once they see interactivity, things will change.

I'm format neutral. I have HD-DVD and Blu-Ray.

I wanted Blu-Ray to win because their product has great storage capacity, etc. I thought it was the more advanced product, even if what was on your average movie disk was visually identical. However....

If HD-DVD had Blu-Ray by the short and curlies like Blu-Ray did HD then I would have been totally in favor of HD-DVD winning and would have been pissed by a similar move in favor of Blu-Ray(Paramount/DW). Why? IT PROLONGS THE FORMAT WAR!

Look, this just pulls HD-DVD back into the game when the game was about over. Joe Consumer is going to stay so far away from this its not even funny.

Shoot, Joe Consumer right now might not even know about the format war. A good number of "average Joe's" I talk to have no idea what HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are.

Both formats might be doomed ala Laserdisk. The war ending in a timely fashion was the only way HD media would catch on IMO. For that reason, this sucks. Congrats to the HD-DVD fanboys tho as this helps their choice of media. I just pray its not at the cost of HD media as a whole.

People aren't staying out due to two formats. I believe they're staying out:
1. They don't have an HDTV
2. Price
3. They're love of dvd

Number 1 is rapidly changing. Number 2 is rapidly changing. Number 3 shows the importance of the combo disc.

If people want something bad enough, they'll buy it regardless of the 'war' i.e. the hardcore enthusiasts.

There are also people who are not capable of rational thought and are using the 'war' as an excuse to stay out. The only excuse that's valid to me is the high prices.

Then there are people who just don't care/know enough about the differences to want to get in regardless of the 'war'. It's not the superior PQ/AQ that will draw them in. I think once they see interactivity, things will change.

LOL, so now people no cooperating in this are irrational? Yikes.

These tie in deals should get reviewed by DG Competition and DoJ. Absolutely flys in the face of competition.

Most of us want mass adoption of HD media, but I don't think the BD infrastructure can support it. I think that HD DVD can.

I also think that Paramount has looked into all of this, and they have very good reasons for doing what they have.

I think the BDA is a house of cards and lies, and I think Paramount has taken the first real step toward ending this format war by effectively causing the Blu Ray side to 'blink' first. Many people were waiting for one side to blink.

Having a huge formerly neutral studio like Paramount close up shop on Blu Ray is going to go a long way to convince people that HD DVD is the right choice, and that will increase HD media adoption above and beyond what it would have been otherwise.



You are right to thank them (in a non sarcastic way) if you really care about mass adoption of HD media.


Para going to HD DVD is no more influential than Uni staying that way, or the other 3 staying with BR. If you think that this has honestly helped adoption, I am not sure what to even say to you.

I also think Para had good reasons for doing what they did, 150 million of them.

Normal, non-insane, non-enthusiasts of respectable intelligence (so people who AREN'T us ;)) come to this conclusion: stay out of the format war (http://consumerist.com/consumer/format-wars/now-is-a-good-time-to-stay-out-of-the-hd-dvdblu+ray-war-291775.php).

Rationalize all you want, but this thinking is happening right now, it's very real, and it's killing HDM. The only place where people DON'T think the format war is a total joke is on this site. That's bad news.

Thanks Paramount.

Nice. The format war is Paramounts fault. WTF? You are either a big BR fan or insane yourself. Blame the war on the groups behind BD and HD DVD for not getting together in the beginning. Paramount made a few hundred thousand people happy that their format will survive, and is forcing everyone to look at dual format players and a happy ending.

I personally believe that the war is good. It has brought prices down to where I could buy a player for $199, and the publicity around it is educating people as to what HDM is. Without it no one would have a clue.

US PS2 sales to date: 38 million
US DVD player sales to date: 130 million

Curious as to where you got that data? Sony has the PS2 as having sold 47 million copies in the U.S. to date . . .

And on the DVD player side, that number looks really, really low. There are 108 million U.S. households, so the average household has (or has had over the course of time) only 1.2 DVD players? While I understand there are some households (not many, I'd imagine) with 0 DVD players, how many households have 2, 3, 4 or more DVD players. A quick personal inventory says that our house has 5 DVD players, not counting PCs or non-C/E DVD players.

So, while I'm sorta' challenging the information, I'm guess I'm more curious to know where you got it, specifically, the U.S. DVD player sales number (I was looking for this data a while back and couldn't find it).

I don't believe either format has all the answers and I will continue to advise family and friends to stay out for another year. The last few months, I was suggesting they buy the PS3 as a stop-gap BD player as after the xmas '07 numbers, (for people with digital cameras, this is a no brainer - photo slideshows in HD), with the expected bloodbath in sales ratios, it would be difficult to conclude otherwise. The warning with the PS3 is that it is a funny shape and not possible for people with closed shelves.

At this point though, I see the sales going to only 60:40 for blu on months where comparable movies are out. Those who absolutely must watch the movie in highdef and can afford it would have to buy two players.

HD DVD's huge hole is their recordable media --- not a concern to many, but a big deal for those who use HD camcorders. If they have a 51GB TL media, then it's time to roll it out. Heck even a DL 30GB blank would be better than what they're showing now.

BD's huge hole is that they didn't include the PiP. For many people, this is not a big deal as almost 200K people picked the BD 300 even without PiP. As for adding PiP, should samsung have added a P4 to the BDP1000 when the broadcomm 7411 chip couldn't handle the second video? (ie: the same thing HD-A1 did) I don't think it made sense --- especially if that's why the HD-A1 took 2 minutes to load a disk. But for some people, the PiP thing is a big deal, and in this case, the studios seem to want this PiP thing. As for the other interactive things, I don't know what you can do in html and javascripts that you can also do in java, I suspect it's more difficult though as you have to compile the java into binary executables.

Otoh, if you leave something in javascript, the processor cycles required to execute the same function at the same speed is going to be much higher - as interpreted code always runs slower than binaries. This could be why the HD-A2 continued to use a celeron even though the NEC chip inside already is supposed to be an SOC.

The gauntlet thrown at BD is simple, there's three ways to address this.

1. Have a blu title sell 500K in a week and that is a strong enough showing to make people think long and hard about this.

2. Whatever price delta there is in the manufacturing of disks, work harder to minimize it so that post-subsidy, your plan to take over from DVDs can still continue. A 90c cost difference would be too high, a 10c one acceptable in a year. In 3 years, it has to continue to decline. Anything else in between would be negotiable and cause you grief. I mean comparable features on both disks of course, with AACS vs AACS.

3. Work at the player pricing. Anyone who opened up the HD-A2 realizes that other than the drives, the electronics in there (with a celeron) is more expensive than what lives in a samsung or BDP-S300. This leaves the drive as the big question mark for everyone. Why is the price delta of the focusing mechanism of BD over the HD one higher than that of the cost to put a celeron and the x86 northbridge in? If this is all due to price subsidy, well, then you have to do the same won't you? It appears $450 for a BDP-S300 compared to $250 for a HD-A2 ($190 for a HD-A1) is still landing you in the wrong point in the demand curve. Your delta has to be within 10% of the red player.

Curious as to where you got that data? Sony has the PS2 as having sold 47 million copies in the U.S. to date . . .

And on the DVD player side, that number looks really, really low. There are 108 million U.S. households, so the average household has (or has had over the course of time) only 1.2 DVD players? While I understand there are some households (not many, I'd imagine) with 0 DVD players, how many households have 2, 3, 4 or more DVD players. A quick personal inventory says that our house has 5 DVD players, not counting PCs or non-C/E DVD players.
I found it somewhere, sorry can't seem to locate it again :mad: But the numbers I saw had US DVD players @ 126 million, US 43 Million PS2...........:confused:

Numbers are somewhere in that ballpark, but as with most anything they change all the time.

I found it somewhere, sorry can't seem to locate it again :mad: But the numbers I saw had US DVD players @ 126 million, US 43 Million PS2...........:confused:

Numbers are somewhere in that ballpark, but as with most anything they change all the time.

I'm not doubting you (well . . . I sorta' am, I guess :) ), but does that 130 million DVD player number seem low to you? It seems really low to me, just doing a reality check here (mine).

EDIT: Well maybe not, as of 2001 31.5 million DVD players had been sold according to: http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/WLCESfnl.ppt#11

RE-EDIT: Well, looks like around 147 million units through 2006 according to: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/glucksman/docs/Coplan.pdf -- go to page 7 and eyeball it, and given the sales rate decline, maybe 160-170 million cummulative unites by end of year 2006.

Guess my reality meter is off . . . .

Normal, non-insane, non-enthusiasts of respectable intelligence (so people who AREN'T us ;)) come to this conclusion: stay out of the format war (http://consumerist.com/consumer/format-wars/now-is-a-good-time-to-stay-out-of-the-hd-dvdblu+ray-war-291775.php).

Rationalize all you want, but this thinking is happening right now, it's very real, and it's killing HDM. The only place where people DON'T think the format war is a total joke is on this site. That's bad news.

Thanks Paramount.
Looking for an easy scapegoat isn't the answer, unless you are a rabid BD fan. The truth is, that the masses have stayed away becasue they don't care about HD, and don't want to pay more for it, and are happy with DVD.

I don't want mass adoption. I want something slightly above niche. enough buyers to get the movies but not enough where studios can stop giving a damn about quality.

The format war rules. Better software and hardware at cheaper prices.
Good post. I agree with this.
J

This war is no good except for those who want HD media to remain a niche format. People and manufacturers will continue to sit on the sidelines if this war remains unresolved. Paramount just pumped life back into a format war which seemed inevitably to be leaning Blu-Ray's way (still is, but I'm waiting for some other shoe to drop). Now there is decent shot HD media will take hammer blows from HD VOD before it can get any real traction in the mass market.

I guess I can wait until we have 2Terabyte storage media but then the Studios may be loath to release Master quality video discs to your average home owner

Yes, it seemed low to me (given how many TVs there are) - I was suprised.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html

I make now claims as the accuracy of the numbers, just what I found

Yes, it seemed low to me (given how many TVs there are) - I was suprised.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html

I make now claims as the accuracy of the numbers, just what I found

Wow, that's in pretty stark contrast to the data here: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/glucksman/docs/Coplan.pdf in terms of the growth curve. Trying to figure out if www.thedigitalbits.com has an agenda in showing a less-sloped growth curve (I'm pretty sure a professor or doctorial candidate at NYU doesn't have an agenda, but I could be wrong).

Audioholics once again hits one out of the park with their take on the war (soon to make it to AVS' front page) which mirrors the OP's main theme: http://www.audioholics.com/news/editorials/but-i-already-have-a-dvd-player. The Luke Skywalker picture and caption almost made me spill my OJ into the computer keyboard (too funny!). :D

LOL, so now people no cooperating in this are irrational? Yikes.
If their primary reason is because they don't want to end up with a boat anchor, yes. They're thinking back to the days of the Beta/VHS wars where dual format players/recorders, if they existed, were bulky and too difficult/expensive to build.

That's not an issue with today's optical formats. The longer HD DVD/BD wars continue, the more likely universal players will become the norm, thus, no format will become obsolete. Sure, universal players will be expensive at first but prices will come down quickly. The best example I can give you is back in 2002/2003, Pioneer came out with the first universal SACD/DVD-A players at around $1200. The following year, they came out with budget models around $250. Also, think about the DVD+-R/RW formats. Universal burners eliminated that issue.

Thus, to stay out simply because of fears of obsolence, is irrational. All you're doing by staying out is ensuring the death of HDM because the studios will not continue to invest in the technology if no one is buying.

And it's not helping that some people, who are supposedly knowledgeable about the situation, are advising people to stay out. They're doing more harm than good.

The fallacy for the argument in favor of universal players is that Sony's multi-billion dollar/yen investment (manufacturing facilities, R&D, PS3 subsidies, etc.) in Blu-ray requires for that format to not only come ahead of HD-DVD but to thrive and replace DVD in order to be profitable. If universal players become the norm it means co-existence with HD-DVD, which has an infrastructure in place (the more-affordable-to-convert-to-HD-format DVD pressing lines, proven and already-recouped R&D expenses, etc.) that no studio would be foolish enough to use if the alternative are non-subsidized expenses associated with BD-50 manufacturing. And the expense of BD-50 manufacturing can only come down in price hard and fast if Blu-ray takes off, which it was poised to do after December when its sales would have dwarfed the Paramount-less HD-DVD offerings.

I'm all for universal players taking over at a cheap price (I want some BD exclusives to go with my HD-DVD addiction) but let's not kid ourselves. Universal players gaining traction is bad news for Sony and BD, period. :cool:

Wow, that's in pretty stark contrast to the data here: http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/glucksman/docs/Coplan.pdf in terms of the growth curve. Trying to figure out if www.thedigitalbits.com has an agenda in showing a less-sloped growth curve (I'm pretty sure a professor or doctorial candidate at NYU doesn't have an agenda, but I could be wrong).

That chart was started on day 1 - March 1997 with data provided by the CEA. It is updated monthly.

There are 210 million DVD players in the world of which approx 125 million reside in the USA.

This help you?

The format war will be over soon enough and people can dive in.

Thanks Paramount.

So to say without the war everybody would be buying HD Media is just not realistic, IMO.

I totally agree. I had made the argument in some other posts that with BD in the "lead", people werent exactly embracing this stuff. Hardly that.

If one format were to disappear tomorrow, its not like all of the J6Ps are gonna run out to BB or CC and load up on HD optical players and discs.... No way!

:rolleyes:

HD DVD/BD = Laserdisc Part 2

That make it simple enough?

So much angst. So much chatter. So many impassioned arguments. People dividing into champions of one format or another. What if they gave a format war and nobody came?

I admit, I have been playing HD-DVD for some months now, but only because the ubiquitous Xbox 360 drive was available for $200. But the problem is, up until the announcement this week, there was about 40% of the HD media exclusive to one format or the other. Now the percentages will shift a few points, but the war will continue.

You must still choose both formats, or watch some movies in SD instead of HD. As soon as I can get a Blu-Ray player for a reasonable price, I'll have one. If one format becomes predominant months or years from now, I won't care then anymore than I care now.

I don't double dip, I never have. Occasionally I feel the urge to watch one of my old movies on -gasp- VHS. I'd rather buy new films than replace old ones.

It really is OK if you don't give a hoot about a format war. You don't have to be a proponent of either media. They both produce wonderfull audio and video in your Home Theater.

If their primary reason is because they don't want to end up with a boat anchor, yes. They're thinking back to the days of the Beta/VHS wars where dual format players/recorders, if they existed, were bulky and too difficult/expensive to build.

That's not an issue with today's optical formats. The longer HD DVD/BD wars continue, the more likely universal players will become the norm, thus, no format will become obsolete. Sure, universal players will be expensive at first but prices will come down quickly. The best example I can give you is back in 2002/2003, Pioneer came out with the first universal SACD/DVD-A players at around $1200. The following year, they came out with budget models around $250. Also, think about the DVD+-R/RW formats. Universal burners eliminated that issue.

Thus, to stay out simply because of fears of obsolence, is irrational. All you're doing by staying out is ensuring the death of HDM because the studios will not continue to invest in the technology if no one is buying.

And it's not helping that some people, who are supposedly knowledgeable about the situation, are advising people to stay out. They're doing more harm than good.

I agree. Simply staying out because of the fear of obsolence is indeed irrational. If one recognizes true value in one of the formats and the pricing is within reach, why not enjoy this new technology since it is better than the current media. If enough people did this, HDM would not die. Why let fear control our lives?

Though regular DVD lives on, IMO HDM will survive because it is a superior media. Price is the real issue. I agree with a recent article in the Audioholics online magazine that "The general public doesn't by quality, they buy value". Since the best "bang for the buck" has been HD DVD, as prices continue to drop, I believe eventually the public will embrace HD DVD.

You really and truely don't even have to pick one.

I will have HD-DVD and Blu-Ray and DVD, all three - I'm a Home Theater enthusiast. I also will keep my VHS and S-VHS hardware, since I still have some old movies.

I know Gaming enthusiasts who own PS3 and Xbox 360 and Wii. I don't own any of those, or care about that format war.

Come February 2009, the analog TV broadcasts will be gone. I own an OTA antenna and a couple of DSS DVRs, and cable is in my house ready to be activated, so I guess I won't be drafted into that format war either.

He** No, I Won't Go!

Why sit it out? Seriously. I just cancelled my satellite subsciption because the compresion was so bad and the random audio drop outs were distracting as hell. I dont watch non-HD anymore that much so from my point of view it is better to get an HD-DVD or (gasp) Blu ray - at the end of the month I have some real movies instead of nothing. I stopped getting new releases on DVD ( HD is not much more on release day ) because I believe its better to be stuck with an HD copy than a subpar DVD. Even if one format tanks its better to have those flicks on HD than DVD No?

That chart was started on day 1 - March 1997 with data provided by the CEA. It is updated monthly.

There are 210 million DVD players in the world of which approx 125 million reside in the USA.

This help you?

For what is worth the DVD Entertainment Group (promotional group for DVD) had different #s.

From their midyear review:
http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/071106.html

US Hardware Sales (through Q2-2006): 175 million.

For what is worth the DVD Entertainment Group (promotional group for DVD) had different #s.

From their midyear review:
http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/071106.html

US Hardware Sales (through Q2-2006): 175 million.

What's the difference? Is it the exact number? Or is it the fact that DVD is THE most successful CE product in history as far as adoption?

HD DVD/BD = Laserdisc Part 2

That make it simple enough?

I agree.

If their primary reason is because they don't want to end up with a boat anchor, yes. They're thinking back to the days of the Beta/VHS wars where dual format players/recorders, if they existed, were bulky and too difficult/expensive to build.

That's not an issue with today's optical formats. The longer HD DVD/BD wars continue, the more likely universal players will become the norm, thus, no format will become obsolete. Sure, universal players will be expensive at first but prices will come down quickly. The best example I can give you is back in 2002/2003, Pioneer came out with the first universal SACD/DVD-A players at around $1200. The following year, they came out with budget models around $250. Also, think about the DVD+-R/RW formats. Universal burners eliminated that issue.

Thus, to stay out simply because of fears of obsolence, is irrational. All you're doing by staying out is ensuring the death of HDM because the studios will not continue to invest in the technology if no one is buying.

And it's not helping that some people, who are supposedly knowledgeable about the situation, are advising people to stay out. They're doing more harm than good.


So you are saying don't wait, but wait for cheaper dual-format players??

What's the difference? Is it the exact number? Or is it the fact that DVD is THE most successful CE product in history as far as adoption?

It doesn't really make any difference if the number is 126 million, 140 million,175 million or 210 million. What the disparty does do, IMHO, is to shed a little light on all the conflicting stories around unit sales for HD DVD and BD. If the data around (undisputed) DVD is sketchy or conflicting or at minimum, inexact, the conflicting data and trends for the (much lower) volumes of HD DVD and BD is a lot more understandable, with fewer precise conclusions to be drawn. That's all.

Normal, non-insane, non-enthusiasts of respectable intelligence (so people who AREN'T us ;)) come to this conclusion: stay out of the format war (http://consumerist.com/consumer/format-wars/now-is-a-good-time-to-stay-out-of-the-hd-dvdblu+ray-war-291775.php).

Rationalize all you want, but this thinking is happening right now, it's very real, and it's killing HDM. The only place where people DON'T think the format war is a total joke is on this site. That's bad news.

Thanks Paramount.

Anyone not insane or irrational would not come to such a conclusion, thus your argument is moot as the people who are irrational and possibly insane are the only ones who would let themselves miss out on all this HD goodness just because of some illogical love interest in their platform of choice.

DVD took almost five years to get off the ground, everybody wants instant gratification these days....
Consumers aren't confused, they're just cheap and low priced hardware should clear up that confusion.

DVD took almost five years to get off the ground, everybody wants instant gratification these days....
Consumers aren't confused, they're just cheap and low priced hardware should clear up that confusion.

It's not true. Take a look at the numbers.
http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/071106.html

First thing is that in 1997 for the first 5 months it was a test in 7 cities only. A limited number of players and titles were made because studios were skeptical that DVD would be any more of a hit than LD was. Nationwide launch of DVD didn't start until Q3-1997.

Player Sales (excluding game systems)
1997 - 0.3 mil
1998 - 0.9 mil
1999 - 3.6 mil
2000 - 9.9 mil
2001 - 16.7 mil

Software Sales
1997 - 5.5 million (partial year only sales from Q3 & Q4 shown)
1998 - 25 million
1999 - 98 million
2000 - 182 million
2001 - 364 million

In it's first 6 months DVD sold 2x as many discs as HD DVD & BD sold combined in over a year. Not only are player sales lagging behind software sales and ATTACH RATES are far behind. Not including PS3 (DEG# don't include the PS2 or xbox) there are about 600K players and there are about 3.7 million discs = attach rate of 6-7 (actually lower when you factor in the PS3). Compare that to DVD that had an attach rate of 18-20 for the first 3 years and still had an attach rate of 12 in 2000 when player sales exploded into mainstream.

1) Consumer's don't care about HD media
2) Players sales greatly lag DVD (which also was in format war w/ divx)
3) Even consumers who do buy HD players are buying a lot less HD discs
4) Currently HD media is not even 1%

Lots of people draw the conclusion that HD now represents 2-3% of the market. Try 1/3rd of 1% (0.3%) 2.4 million HD discs in 2007 vs 741 million DVD in 2007.

The fallacy for the argument in favor of universal players is that Sony's multi-billion dollar/yen investment (manufacturing facilities, R&D, PS3 subsidies, etc.) in Blu-ray requires for that format to not only come ahead of HD-DVD but to thrive and replace DVD in order to be profitable. If universal players become the norm it means co-existence with HD-DVD, which has an infrastructure in place (the more-affordable-to-convert-to-HD-format DVD pressing lines, proven and already-recouped R&D expenses, etc.) that no studio would be foolish enough to use if the alternative are non-subsidized expenses associated with BD-50 manufacturing. And the expense of BD-50 manufacturing can only come down in price hard and fast if Blu-ray takes off, which it was poised to do after December when its sales would have dwarfed the Paramount-less HD-DVD offerings.

I'm all for universal players taking over at a cheap price (I want some BD exclusives to go with my HD-DVD addiction) but let's not kid ourselves. Universal players gaining traction is bad news for Sony and BD, period. :cool:

Not if it sells movies. The HDM adoption rates are still at trace levels compared to DvD. If Blu Ray sells Sony gets royalty money, and money is money. I am sure they would rather split the pie with Toshiba than see it all go down the tube, and I'm sure Toshiba feels the same way.

Worse case for Sony is to have to watch rival MicroSoft take over the majority of the HD distribution market.

Sony, unlike Toshiba, does have a safety net, there will be millions of ps3's out there for years to come, so worse case, they will still be able to release physical HD media from their own studios, at a HD premium price, of course.

So you are saying don't wait, but wait for cheaper dual-format players??
No, I'm saying that assuming the current price levels is within your means and you believe that you are getting value, the fear of obsolesence should not be a reason to hold you back. By picking a format, doesn't matter which, you are helping to ensure that HDM will survive. Since it doesn't look like either side is going away soon, the inevitability of universal players should allay any fears of picking the wrong side, should one side eventually lose. If everyone just sits back to see what happens, then we all lose because the lack of sales will cause the studios to stop supporting either format.

People aren't staying out due to two formats. I believe they're staying out:
1. They don't have an HDTV
2. Price
3. They're love of dvd

Number 1 is rapidly changing. Number 2 is rapidly changing. Number 3 shows the importance of the combo disc.

You say #2 is rapidly changing but HiDef DVD's still don't even have price breaks when they are initially released and the consumer can get the same movie on SD for 1/2 price or less.

And don't forget the most important,

4. Can't get all the movies they like on one format.

The way it's going, it will be at least a year or longer before we see either side cave to a defeat.

I see people looking/browsing at the HD DVD and BD movies at the CE stores all the time.
They like movies on both formats but they know if they choose only a single format player, they can only get 1/2 of the HiDef DVD movies on the market.
They they happily walk over to the SD DVD's and make a purchase.

Also, there's one big factor the HDM enthusists are missing, you do get better PQ and AQ on HiDef but the outcome, suspence and drama of a movie on SD and HiDef DVD are the same.

Thanks for the numbers namechamps, what I take from the chart is PS3 is diluting the market more than I thought. They've sold more blu-ray players than dvd did its first 3 years combined yet they get a 60% slice of the 2.4 million discs sold. Amazing.

No, I'm saying that assuming the current price levels is within your means and you believe that you are getting value, the fear of obsolesence should not be a reason to hold you back. By picking a format, doesn't matter which, you are helping to ensure that HDM will survive. Since it doesn't look like either side is going away soon, the inevitability of universal players should allay any fears of picking the wrong side, should one side eventually lose. If everyone just sits back to see what happens, then we all lose because the lack of sales will cause the studios to stop supporting either format.

I get what you are saying, but the fear of obsolesence is real, whether you want it to be or not. But I see no reason to contribute in any way ($) wise to these 2 baboons that are forcing consumers to buy both if they want to enjoy all of the HD movies.

So much angst. So much chatter. So many impassioned arguments.

...so many cut n' paste duplicate posts across multiple threads ;)