It's interesting to me that both camps don't know how to position the PS3 in the format war. Since I believe I have a good grasp on this, as opposed to pretty much every other aspect of this format war, I thought I should share it.

HD-DVD supporters claim Blu-Ray has a n-to-1 advantage in hardware, and still can only do 2-to-1 in software.
Blu-Ray supporters claim that a large percent of the PS3s out there aren't used as blu-ray players.

Well, both are wrong!

The PS3 is an expensive machine. Thus, in order to justify the purchase, consumers must consider its value as a game machine AND a blu-ray player, I know I (and some people I know) did. As both a game machine and a blu-ray player, it *may* be worth the $500 price tag.

Now, if someone (like myself) buys a PS3, it doesn't mean he is really participating in the format war or taking a stand. Like the great majority of people out there, PS3 owners do not need to actively buy movies (specially considering HDM SW prices). Yep, you guessed it, they rent them! So a person who buys the expensive machine the PS3 is, can not only play its very few good games, but also rent blu-ray movies instead of DVDs at NO ADDITIONAL COST. That's how the PS3 becomes a justifiable purchase.

Furthermore, the format war in itself (with all its uncertainties) prevents PS3 owners, who didn't actually buy into the format (don't want to bet), from purchasing blu-ray discs. Simply, because they don't care, or they don't care enough. Avs aficionados should understand that they are not the norm. Interesting enough, PS3 owners are more "the norm" than HDM stand alone owners atm.

Considering the now millions of PS3s out there, is Blockbuster's decision that far-fetched? Isn't looking at software sales exclusively too simplistic a view to understand the format war?

You thoughts?

* PS3 owner who watches blu-ray movies every weekend. Own a single blu-ray disc, remastered Fifth Element (as a demo) and won't buy a single movie until the format war is over (with the possible exception of a <$20 blade runner).

And what is the percentage of PS3 owners who even know they can watch HD movies on it...50%-60%? I think you are overestimating the PS3 factor. It makes a difference by the amount of BD's install base, but it is not reflected in the amount of software sold.

Wow! Did you read my post?

The whole point is that there is no reason (considering the uncertainties and software price) for PS3 owners to actually buy software... They just rent BR movies, cause it's the same price.

Whether it is BD or HD DVD... it is very hard to walk into a B&M like Best Buy and pay the price of HDM... The problem with the whole HD market is the price of media is freaking rediculous. I was in Best Buy last night. Not one single bargain priced HD DVD. I just walked out like so many times before. I ended up buying Hustle and Flow at Walmart for $18.95.. their HD DVD section was almost completely wiped out again.

HD media needs to be at most a couple of dollars premium to SD DVD. When you can walk in to Best Buy and see a whole section of nearly new titles at $9.99 like you can with DVD then the whole market will explode. But when there is not a single HD DVD in Best Buy for less than $24.95 forget about HDM ever really going anywhere. People say HDM will stay a niche market because of Paramounts defection. I day HDM will stay a niche market until the media pricing has some kind of sanity. You know I am always amazed at how little of anything most Best Buy stores really seem to be selling.

Wow! Did you read my post?

The whole point is that there is no reason (considering the uncertainties and software price) for PS3 owners to actually buy software... They just rent BR movies, cause it's the same price.

your right on this issue,ps3 buyers don't = sales of blu-ray disk ,the numbers bare that out and the studios are beginning to see it in attach rates for both formats, 5x the installed base and yet only 2x the sales on a big movie like 300

studios are gonna switch,imo or go neutral from blu rays side ,especially once hddvd gets an installed base of 1 million players

watch for more major news shortly,this is not over yet

it's 10-1 install base, about 4M PS3s and 400K HD-DVD players.

HD DVD has a 5X attach rate compared to Blu Ray.

I know true Gamers who own PS3 and Xbox 360 and Wii. (And of course everything back until the original NES or maybe even Pong.) They just decided not to fight a format war.

True Home Theater enthusiasts will own HD-DVD and Blu-Ray and DVD and VHS and S-VHS and have antennas and satellite dishes on the roof and cable TV sneaking into their homes.

What format war? More toys to buy.

it's 10-1 install base, about 4M PS3s and 400K HD-DVD players.

HD DVD has a 5X attach rate compared to Blu Ray.

First from sales perspective who cares about attach rates, except for making future projections, you still have to apply market factors in order for the numbers to mean anything.

The majortiy of ps3's aren't attached to a high def display, it would make no sense to buy HD movies for those people, while ALL stand alone players are attached to hd displays.

Next year Toshiba will include millions of hd dvd dirves in their portable computers, would you include those drives in attach rate calculations?

I would say the actual attach rate is closer to 2X not 5X, for people with Ps3s and HD displays. And that is based on the early adpoter crowd, don't expect the same high % from the bargain basement generation of buyers.

It matters because by the end of the year when HD DVD will have around 1M players, Blu Ray will have had to have sold 10M just to stay still at 2:1.

Now, if someone (like myself) buys a PS3, it doesn't mean he is really participating in the format war or taking a stand. Like the great majority of people out there, PS3 owners do not need to actively buy movies (specially considering HDM SW prices). Yep, you guessed it, they rent them! So a person who buys the expensive machine the PS3 is, can not only play its very few good games, but also rent blu-ray movies instead of DVDs at NO ADDITIONAL COST. That's how the PS3 becomes a justifiable purchase.


I agree with you 100%. You're the first person I've seen that actually understand the market. PS3 owners are renting BD at a record rate.

Blockbuster did not make their decision to go BD for rentals without much consideration -- much like Paramounts decision to support only HD-DVD. These are giant corporations with one goal. Make the most profit possible.

If you are a studio, you are trying to make your money by selling the most copies for the least money.

If you are Blockbuster, you are trying to make your money by renting the least copies you can but making the most money.

Movie studios want people to own movies. Not rent them. 150 people can rent the same exact disc over the span of a year. That means they made 1 sale instead of 75 sales. (Yes I know that not everyone that rents a movie would buy it -- but for argument sake)

YMMV but I do not subscribe to this frame of reference. I own a PS3 more for the BD aspect than the game aspect, I researched all available players and found this to be the most competent player on the market in a cost/feature comparison, and it's multifunction. I own 2 games waiting on GT5, and own 10 movies, and I recently got into the game.
In the end it comes down what your motivation for the purchase was. Anecdotally I recommend to other people I know who are in the same decision process my points of consideration and those who ended up purchasing a HDM machine ended up with a PS3, The black does not clash with the HT decor good for the significant other, and the up conversion of SD is on par with some of the best converters.

YMMV but I do not subscribe to this frame of reference. I own a PS3 more for the BD aspect than the game aspect, I researched all available players and found this to be the most competent player on the market in a cost/feature comparison, and it's multifunction. I own 2 games waiting on GT5, and own 10 movies, and I recently got into the game.
In the end it comes down what your motivation for the purchase was. Anecdotally I recommend to other people I know who are in the same decision process my points of consideration and those who ended up purchasing a HDM machine ended up with a PS3, The black does not clash with the HT decor good for the significant other, and the up conversion of SD is on par with some of the best converters.

This is the interesting thing with the PS3, you have some people that bought it primarily as a BD player like manikin here, and other like me that bought it primarily as a game machine. I got a BD player free with my PS3. I own 7 games and 3 movies, but that's probably going to go up by 2 movies shortly as I make sure to pick up Paramount titles I'm interested in. It's a testament to the quality of the machine as an entertainment device that people are able to enjoy in such a variety of ways.

It matters because by the end of the year when HD DVD will have around 1M players, Blu Ray will have had to have sold 10M just to stay still at 2:1.

That is a big assumption on two points: A greater percentage does not employ their PS3 as a Blu Ray player and that Blu Ray standalone sales remain static. You also make the assumption that HD DVD players get purchased at a rate that equals or exceeds the ratio of people using the PS3 as a Blu Ray player.

You might be right. But really, it's not a fact right now. Like the GP, I rent most of my Blu Ray. But my rate of purchases is increasing from when I first got the PS3. My latest is pre-ordering the Spider Man trilogy (currently at #17 on Amazon).

it's 10-1 install base, about 4M PS3s and 400K HD-DVD players.

HD DVD has a 5X attach rate compared to Blu Ray.Are you using worldwide for both or worldwide for hardware and US or NA for software (basically using Nielsen numbers)?
It matters because by the end of the year when HD DVD will have around 1M players, Blu Ray will have had to have sold 10M just to stay still at 2:1.The Paramount announcement will change things, but for the 2:1 ratio in the US your attach rate calculation doesn't apply. In the US it is under 2 million PS3s now and probably over 400k HD DVD players counting XBOX360 add-ons, with probably over 100k Blu-ray standalones, and software sales running at around 2:1.

--Darin