I think that a lot of the focus (especially since the Paramount announcement) has been on the format war between HD DVD and Blu Ray, but in reality this is all hinging on the fact that HD media will eventually take over from DVD.

In this sense, how HD DVD and Blu Ray are doing relative to each other is of little consequence. Consider what would happen at a ~ $200 price point at the big box stores (Best Buy, Circuit City, etc.): at that price it becomes difficult to justify buying an upconverting DVD player rather than a player that plays HD media. This is especially true considering that HD Media players tend to have very good upconverting relative to mid-range DVD players. I think at that point the HD playback becomes a feature, rather than the main attraction of HD Media players and to me this is the easiest way to push them into the mainstream in the midst of a format war.

Essentially the cost of HD playback becomes the marginal cost between an upconverting DVD player and an HD Media player. Really, who cares if I don't have all the studios on board if it costs me an extra $50 to play HD titles? Then you bundle in one A-list title with a great transfer (300, Casino Royale, the Departed, whatever) instead of 5 crappy ones and hope that the consumer will appreciate the difference enough to start buying the available HDM titles when available.

Honestly, I think this is the best way to finally get HDM into the mainstream, and end this useless format war. In my mind, content matters, but price is the true determining factor as long as you pitch it correctly.

When all DVD players sold support one or both HD formats, just like you can't buy a tube TV (over 27") anymore.

When everyone has a HDTV.

when there is one format, or when all studios are neutral.

Very simple, when was the last time you picked up a betamax player cheap from stores when VHS is widely available?

Desirable and aboundent movie titles means more player sells. More players sold means cheaper production cost for players. More players sales also means more movie titles coming out for that format. It goes back to the loop again and again.

Without movies ppl want to watch, even if HD players cost only $10, most ppl won't buy it. Release a movie costs $$$ for studios. Without a guaranteed consumer base, they won't do it.

When you have two competing formats, ppl tends to wait until it all settles. Without large customer based, movie studios won't risk release movies to any formats.

This can be clearly seen from DVD-Audio vs SACD format wars. Now both formats are effectively dead.

When DVD first showed up, there is a competing format called DIVX. Not until DIVX was killed, we saw DVD movie really took off. I still remember all the BBs have more than ten shelfs of VHS movies and less than one shelf of DVD movie back then.

If the current format war continues, we will see less and less HD movie release in either formats. Studios are happy to release regular DVD movies forever.

After HDDVD is dead.

After HDDVD is dead.
Just a bit off - after HD DVD has made BD dead.

After Blu-ray is dead.

Fixed for you. ZING!

When everybody in these forums shuts their mouths for a second and thinks.

Translation? Never.

Very simple, when was the last time you picked up a betamax player cheap from stores when VHS is widely available?

Desirable and aboundent movie titles means more player sells. More players sold means cheaper production cost for players. More players sales also means more movie titles coming out for that format. It goes back to the loop again and again.

Without movies ppl want to watch, even if HD players cost only $10, most ppl won't buy it. Release a movie costs $$$ for studios. Without a guaranteed consumer base, they won't do it.

When you have two competing formats, ppl tends to wait until it all settles. Without large customer based, movie studios won't risk release movies to any formats.

This can be clearly seen from DVD-Audio vs SACD format wars. Now both formats are effectively dead.

When DVD first showed up, there is a competing format called DIVX. Not until DIVX was killed, we saw DVD movie really took off. I still remember all the BBs have more than ten shelfs of VHS movies and less than one shelf of DVD movie back then.

If the current format war continues, we will see less and less HD movie release in either formats. Studios are happy to release regular DVD movies forever.

All this would be true if HD players were incompatible with standard def titles. It would also be true if the perceived value in getting an HD player was 0.

I think that what killed DVD-A and SACD in the end is not a format war but the fact that there's no perceived value from the consumer. On most sound systems and in all but pristine listening conditions, there is no appreciable difference between SACD, DVD-A, and CD.


This is not so with HD media and DVDs however, where anyone with an HDTV can see an appreciable step up in quality. Basically, it comes to this for an average consumer. Buy a new DVD player, get HD playback for $50; I think this is a difficult value proposition to turn down. For a modest premium, I have difficulty believing that the average consumer wouldn't want to watch a couple of HD movies if only to see what the hype is about. Hopefully, they will like what they like what they see and will start consuming whatever HD media is available to them (vs consuming only DVD content).

Of course, this also assumes that HD media prices will also slowly fall out of the stratosphere :)

Very simple, when was the last time you picked up a betamax player cheap from stores when VHS is widely available?

Desirable and aboundent movie titles means more player sells. More players sold means cheaper production cost for players. More players sales also means more movie titles coming out for that format. It goes back to the loop again and again.

Without movies ppl want to watch, even if HD players cost only $10, most ppl won't buy it. Release a movie costs $$$ for studios. Without a guaranteed consumer base, they won't do it.

When you have two competing formats, ppl tends to wait until it all settles. Without large customer based, movie studios won't risk release movies to any formats.

This can be clearly seen from DVD-Audio vs SACD format wars. Now both formats are effectively dead.

When DVD first showed up, there is a competing format called DIVX. Not until DIVX was killed, we saw DVD movie really took off. I still remember all the BBs have more than ten shelfs of VHS movies and less than one shelf of DVD movie back then.

If the current format war continues, we will see less and less HD movie release in either formats. Studios are happy to release regular DVD movies forever.

RED: ID for DVD - 3/97. . . ID for DIVX 11/98 (dies 6/99)

7-8/99 - BBI announces DVD will be for rent (previously buy only) and DVD takes off.

DIVX was nothing more than a small speed bump in the road of DVD's success. A tempest in a teacup.

All this would be true if HD players were incompatible with standard def titles. It would also be true if the perceived value in getting an HD player was 0.

I think that what killed DVD-A and SACD in the end is not a format war but the fact that there's no perceived value from the consumer. On most sound systems and in all but pristine listening conditions, there is no appreciable difference between SACD, DVD-A, and CD.


This is not so with HD media and DVDs however, where anyone with an HDTV can see an appreciable step up in quality. Basically, it comes to this for an average consumer. Buy a new DVD player, get HD playback for $50; I think this is a difficult value proposition to turn down. For a modest premium, I have difficulty believing that the average consumer wouldn't want to watch a couple of HD movies if only to see what the hype is about. Hopefully, they will like what they like what they see and will start consuming whatever HD media is available to them (vs consuming only DVD content).

Of course, this also assumes that HD media prices will also slowly fall out of the stratosphere :)

And you real think that people have the money, the patient, the space and the sense to buy 2 player´s?
You real think that retailers have the money, the patient, the space and the sense to buy the same movie in 3 different formats?

And what about the perceived value of security, right now it doesn’t exist, it´s like going to a country that it´s a war, no one wants to be shot, and only guy’s like you, with the money, the patient, the space and no sense at all, will risk being shot.

This war is over, neither format will succeed, DVD has won.

When everybody in these forums shuts their mouths for a second and thinks.

Translation? Never.

+infinity.

it will never be hdm vs dvd. they will coexist, and which hd format you have will determine how it coexists. (i.e. no maintream family is going to methodically replace each of their dvd players with an hd player, the same way they won't replace each of their sd set with hd sets. there will always be 150 million (or whatever) dvd players out there that work perfectly fine, and content providers, whether rental stores or whatever will have to cater to that lowest common denominator)

so, if you have bd as the only hd format, it will be a successful niche format, but there will still be bd and dvd skus to cater to the entire market. if the only "successful" penetration of bd was to replace dvd, i don't think bd could be successful.

if you have hd as the only hi def format, studios may still only have a niche market of people looking specifically for hi def, but with combos they can repackage the next iteration of triple-dipped catalog titles as the "special hi def director's unrated special edition". so they can cater to this niche hd market, but they also follow the time honored tradition of selling mainstream dvd customers the same movie yet again.

and (as i believe) we will have a mixed hd dvd/bd hdm market, the latter combo-based approach will still be an option.

Both formats are here to stay. Just like the game consoles, there are multiple platforms for HDMovies. Also, just like the gaming consoles, you have to buy games (movies) that play on your platform (format). Luckily, there are companies that produce games (movies) for both platforms.

If you want exclusive content from both the PS3 and Xbox360, you have to buy both machines. If you want exclusive content from both HD DVD and Blu-ray, you are going to have to buy both players.

Our only hope is that someday (soon) most if not all studios produce content for both formats (go Warner!).

My choices:
Gaming platform: Xbox360
HDM platform: HD DVD
Funds are limiting me from buying more than 1 platform for gaming or more than 1 platform for HDMovies. :(

And you real think that people have the money, the patient, the space and the sense to buy 2 player´s?
You real think that retailers have the money, the patient, the space and the sense to buy the same movie in 3 different formats?

And what about the perceived value of security, right now it doesn’t exist, it´s like going to a country that it´s a war, no one wants to be shot, and only guy’s like you, with the money, the patient, the space and no sense at all, will risk being shot.

This war is over, neither format will succeed, DVD has won.

Well, I don't expect people to buy both formats. For me, as soon as someone buys into one format, that's a win for HDM.

To give you an example of how I see things going, my dad recently had to replace a CD player that died. He ended up buying a DVD player which plays a whole slew of formats including DVD-A and SACD as no one makes pure CD players any more unless you want an enthusiast-level deck. When he bought the DVD player, I bought one DVD-A disc. I could not hear enough of a difference to justify buying more vs putting up with the added cost and DRM hassles of DVD-A.

Given the same situation of a DVD player dying and being replaced with a HD player, I think the quality difference would have been enough for me to keep buying HD discs once I have the hardware when available. I wouldn't have bought both BD and HD DVD players, but whichever one I have, I would buy the media.

The recent 'rebalancing' of studio support means that the format war will now be protracted; which, in turn, means that a large number of consumers who otherwise might go HD will continue to sit on the sidelines. Combo players priced north of $1K will entice very few of them to buy in. So, until there is a format winner, or we see combo players in the $300-$400 range, comparing HDM to DVD is irrelevent.

Curious that the recent Paramount annoucement might actually breathe more years of life into the DVD format - given the claim of dwindling revenues from DVD, how can that be good for the studios?

For me, as soon as someone buys into one format, that's a win for HDM.
Ditto. Well put, sir.

Both formats are here to stay. Just like the game consoles, there are multiple platforms for HDMovies. Also, just like the gaming consoles, you have to buy games (movies) that play on your platform (format). Luckily, there are companies that produce games (movies) for both platforms.

If you want exclusive content from both the PS3 and Xbox360, you have to buy both machines. If you want exclusive content from both HD DVD and Blu-ray, you are going to have to buy both players.

Our only hope is that someday (soon) most if not all studios produce content for both formats (go Warner!).

My choices:
Gaming platform: Xbox360
HDM platform: HD DVD
Funds are limiting me from buying more than 1 platform for gaming or more than 1 platform for HDMovies. :(

And do real think retailer´s want and have the space to have the same movie in 3 different formats? No, they will always choose the format with better sales (DVD) and will have some copies for the most popular movies of the moment for both HD versions; while independent movies, older movies and less know movies will not even be considered for shelf space.
And besides a movie it´s not a video game, enough with this analogy. There are a lot more movies than videogames and videogames have a limlted time period for selling, you do not see Sonic 3 at a regular store, but you do see Seven.

Friday is not going to be a happy day for Blu-ray.

Found another Beatboy77 prediction that was confrimed by a 2nd source.

Look in the HD DVD SW forum.

It never stops. Both are on going. These are two very different battles. Blu-Ray vs HD DVD is the HD format war and HDM vs DVD is the HD vs SD war. One HDM sold is one less DVD sold.

jer

When there is one format.

At what point does it stop being HD DVD vs Blu Ray and start becoming HDM vs DVD?

Q4 2007.

Warner will be HD DVD exclusive, Disney will be neutral. And the first HD DVD combo discs without a DVD counterpart will show up. Star Trek will be the first one. Once new movie releases show up on HD DVD combo discs (without a seperate DVD release), the next format war HD DVD vs DVD has begun. Bluray will become a sidekick and diminish to just another proprietary Sony format.

Q4 2007.

Warner will be HD DVD exclusive, Disney will be neutral. And the first HD DVD combo discs without a DVD counterpart will show up. Star Trek will be the first one. Once new movie releases show up on HD DVD combo discs (without a seperate DVD release), the next format war HD DVD vs DVD has begun. Bluray will become a sidekick and diminish to just another proprietary Sony format.

if all that does happen it wouldnt be in q4 2007.

Q4 2007.

Warner will be HD DVD exclusive, Disney will be neutral. And the first HD DVD combo discs without a DVD counterpart will show up. Star Trek will be the first one. Once new movie releases show up on HD DVD combo discs (without a seperate DVD release), the next format war HD DVD vs DVD has begun. Bluray will become a sidekick and diminish to just another proprietary Sony format.

That's very interesting that studios are considering producing HD DVD combo discs without a separate DVD release (or is this just speculation?). I would think that the cost of a double-sided disc would be significantly higher than a single sided disc and would be undesirable at this point in time (in addition to losing artwork and lowering yield).

BTW, hasn't Warner said before that both the Blu-Ray and HD DVD sides of their business are profitable? I don't see why they would want to drop one side of it unless they are given heavy incentives from one side or the other.

BTW, hasn't Warner said before that both the Blu-Ray and HD DVD sides of their business are profitable? I don't see why they would want to drop one side of it unless they are given heavy incentives from one side or the other.
I'll not comment on such wild speculation (prefer hard announcement).......but.....just from an objective view -

If you owned a business how would you feel if a direct competitor controlled your supply line? Would this not make you a tad nervous?