first of all- I own both an A1 and a Sony BDP300.
I don't have a vested interest in either side winning or losing. I'm just fine with competition continuing to elicit the best prices and quality and selection from both camps.

that said, I've always felt that due to its 'from the ground up' nature, and what HD offers in general over sd (a 'want' vs a 'need')- that it was going to be a lot hard row to hoe for Bd than most people assumed.

I guess there are two types of people- the ones that think that HD on disc has to supplant dvd quickly otherwise it will never catch on-
while there are those (like me) that think that HD on disc being the rule and not the exception, is going to be the result of a long, very slow- but steady- transition.

If you are in the first camp, then you probably have a very militant view on the format war already- and may want to continue to believe that a Bd win is inevitable.
If you are in the second camp though- you have to wonder, as I do, how long Sony can throw good money after bad to eventually emerge victorious. They are currently subsidizing both the software (Bd50s continue to have lousy yields and no independent replicators can produce them...which should speak volumes) and they continue to subsidze the primary Bd hardware(the PS3) which has a poor attach rate.
And the latest blow is a major studio going from neutral to HD DVD exclusive. Content is king, and they've just lost a major content provider.

So the question is- do you think Sony will endlessly fuel Bd...or do you think they are looking for a way to gracefully exit and cut their losses- and if so ...how would they do it?

No, it's way too early to quit yet.

Especially since Blu-Ray has out sold HD-DVD 2-1

That could change now, but still too early to switch.

Given the sales #'s, Paramounts move was somewhat of a head scratcher.

I think that's why we're seeing so many people shocked and upset.

Way too early is right. Blu-Ray is hurt, but not down for the count.

There will likely have to be many more blows before Sony would even consider an exit strategy.

I probably should have clarified that I don't believe that either of the two camps is going anywhere for the next couple of years.
I expect both to still be around at the end of 2009 at the very least.

I was thinking more along the lines of a long term plan to transition out of a money losing proposition, and concentrating more on Bd aspects that could provide a stronger ROI. An example would be moving away from costly Bd50s and using more Bd25s. or moving away from movies on Bdroms and more towards games (by selling off movie assets and aquiring 3rd party game production houses) etc.

I probably should have clarified that I don't believe that either of the two camps is going anywhere for the next couple of years.
I expect both to still be around at the end of 2009 at the very least.

I was thinking more along the lines of a long term plan to transition out of a money losing proposition, and concentrating more on Bd aspects that could provide a stronger ROI. An example would be moving away from costly Bd50s and using more Bd25s. or moving away from movies on Bdroms and more towards games (by selling off movie assets and aquiring 3rd party game production houses) etc.

Also, while I also think it too early for any side to 'quit'- I don't think it is too early for either of them to have an exit strategy in place and to be anticiapting market conditions that would force an exit strategy. That just seems to me like responsible stewardship of large enterprise- to anticipate and account for setbacks, and to be able to recognize when something has become a futile endevour

apologies for the double post- this new software seems unresponsive in editing or deleting posts.

No Blu-Ray still has the edge in exclusive studios. This announcement had huge a news factor for HD DVD, but don't think BDA will sit this one out, with out any kind of counter measures.

@Paulidan press edit and then delete on your double post.

No Blu-Ray still has the edge in exclusive studios. This announcement had huge a news factor for HD DVD, but don't think BDA will sit this one out, with out any kind of counter measures.
Exactly. Blu-ray still has more major studios supporting it than HD DVD, a fact which has gone oddly unmentioned by a lot of people over the past few days.

Exactly. Blu-ray still has more major studios supporting it than HD DVD, a fact which has gone oddly unmentioned by a lot of people over the past few days.

Maybe because it's no longer as big of a deal as it once was a few days ago. Studio support was BD's biggest attribute, and with one annoucement that argument took a big hit. Not even many BD supporters are mentioning it any longer.

Fact is, HD DVD didn't gain anything by a neutral company becoming exclusive, but BD lost support, which is something many never imagined happening.

No way!!!! End of story..

ok, then let me ask this-

do you think Sony/BdAs strategy- knowing full well they would be competing to become the DVD successor- was predicated on a quick kill with the PS3 or for was going to be the result after a long tough battle?

Do you think they budgeted this battle out based on a belief that there would be years of street fighting, or do you think they sunk most of their budget into a weapon of mass destruction (the PS3)?
Or do you think that money and a budget doesn't matter and they will just come up with whatever funds it takes for how ever long it takes?

ok, then let me ask this-

do you think Sony/BdAs strategy- knowing full well they would be competing to become the DVD successor- was predicated on a quick kill with the PS3 or for was going to be the result after a long tough battle?

Do you think they budgeted this battle out based on a belief that there would be years of street fighting, or do you think they sunk most of their budget into a weapon of mass destruction (the PS3)?
Or do you think that money and a budget doesn't matter and they will just come up with whatever funds it takes for how ever long it takes?

I think this is EXACTLY what Sony was counting on. And why not? Everyone assumed that there would be 9 or 10 million PS3's in living or game rooms by now. No one forsaw the low attach rate or the fast drop in the price of HD DVD players. Sony may have pulled off a rare double feat: losing both the console war and the format war in one fell swoop!

Why does this thread remind me of the equivalent of a thread at BluRay.com?:rolleyes:

I think they banked heavily on the PS3 to win this war. Once they saw that 4M+ consoles weren't swaying the software sales to anything more than 2-1, I'm sure they paused for concern.

Would any company be thrilled to know that having much more hardware available and sold to consumers were only yielding a 2-1 advantage in software sales at the end of the day?

But no, I don't think Sony is going anywhere anytime soon.

Sony may have pulled off a rare double feat: losing both the console war and the format war in one fell swoop!

What, like CD-i, co-developed by Philips and Sony? interactive CD based games and VCD playback (with a MPEG-1 addon for VCD playback on most models, only a few had this built in).. "ahead of its time" and quite expensive ... Hmmm.. :D

I think they banked heavily on the PS3 to win this war. Once they saw that 4M+ consoles weren't swaying the software sales to anything more than 2-1, I'm sure they paused for concern.

Would any company be thrilled to know that having much more hardware available and sold to consumers were only yielding a 2-1 advantage in software sales at the end of the day?

lol


You seem to be ignoring the fact that Blu-Ray had to play catch-up with HD-DVD. HD-DVD's launch began April 18, 2006 while Blu-Ray launched June 20, 2006 and AVC titles didn't appear until September 2006. You should compare the current lead in sales to what HD-DVD was pulling three to six months ago to get a more accurate advantage reading of software sales based on momentum. You'll discover the lead is increasing at a faster pace throughout if you match it month by month.. Blu-Ray had greater momentum and would have kept on extending the lead had it not been for Microsoft's payoff to Paramount...So yes this slows things down which is what HD-DVD wanted to accomplish long term before things looked far worse than 2:1...

A longer war......buy both!!!Or YOU lose.

ok, then let me ask this-

do you think Sony/BdAs strategy- knowing full well they would be competing to become the DVD successor- was predicated on a quick kill with the PS3 or for was going to be the result after a long tough battle?

Do you think they budgeted this battle out based on a belief that there would be years of street fighting, or do you think they sunk most of their budget into a weapon of mass destruction (the PS3)?
Or do you think that money and a budget doesn't matter and they will just come up with whatever funds it takes for how ever long it takes?

Hello everyone, first post and long time lurker. I feel Sony knew they were in for a fight, but they did not expect it to be this big. The PS3 was and is their biggest gun, but so far, has turned out to be not so big afterall.

I probably should have clarified that I don't believe that either of the two camps is going anywhere for the next couple of years.




I keep hearing this and can't believe it's being said. 2 years is a very long time in this fast paced period of changing technologies. Of course my crystal ball is no better than anybody else's, but technology these days changes faster than you can say BOO. Don't believe... then have a look at the land fill sites filling up with old computers, cell phones, tv's... etc.

The point is that these 2 technologies most likely DON"T HAVE another couple of years. The whole idea here is to find the next gen format to eventually replace dvd. If one of these formats does not dig in and find some roots then they will be BOTH be VERY easy targets for any one of probably dozens of stronger, better, faster formats and delivery systems that are NO DOUBT being worked on as we speak.

If this war doesn't get settled soon then the chances are great that they will BOTH be sitting on the sidelines watching the new purple ray super-duper terabite nano drive player, that comes complete with the revolutionary optional "wash dishes during popcorn break" operation..... steals the show.

I keep hearing this and can't believe it's being said. 2 years is a very long time in this fast paced period of changing technologies. Of course my crystal ball is no better than anybody else's, but technology these days changes faster than you can say BOO. Don't believe... then have a look at the land fill sites filling up with old computers, cell phones, tv's... etc.

The point is that these 2 technologies most likely DON"T HAVE another couple of years. The whole idea here is to find the next gen format to eventually replace dvd. If one of these formats does not dig in and find some roots then they will be BOTH be VERY easy targets for any one of probably dozens of stronger, better, faster formats and delivery systems that are NO DOUBT being worked on as we speak.

If this war doesn't get settled soon then the chances are great that they will BOTH be sitting on the sidelines watching the new purple ray super-duper terabite nano drive player, that comes complete with the revolutionary optional "wash dishes during popcorn break" operation..... steals the show.

This seems to be Bill Hunts line of reasoning as well and I just don't subscribe to it.
For one thing- there will not be any other delivery system in the next five years that will offer a packaged hard copy for people whose hobby it is to 'collect' movies and build a library of software.
Also, there will not be a widespread system in place in the next five years that will offer a quality presentation on par with what HD on disc can offer- so for the the enthusiasts, this is a non argument.

When the infrastructure is in place and the masses all have high speed and high bandwidth access (again not anytime soon) then the market that is in trouble is the rental market- not the purchase market.

Supplanting DVD is something that will happen after many years (imo). It is certainly not going to happen in the next two- and I seriously doubt within the next five...but it will happen because there will always be some kind of market (barring some economic catastrophe) for people that want to own a legitimate copy of something they love and treasure. Adoption of color TVs were slow, but eventually they replaced B&W, and color programming replaced B&W programing.
It's going to happen at some point- it's not going to happen overnight.

The question becomes- can both studios whether a long, protracted adoption. can they both afford to lose money consistently until the corner is eventually turned?

Blu-Ray is too important to Sony; Sony is too important to Blu-Ray. There is no exit strategy. Blu-ray needs to find a way to live harmoniously with HD-DVD or squash them. There is no other way.

A longer war......buy both!!!Or YOU lose.

Maybe not even a war if Warner picks a side. There will just be two formats with separate but equal content. Buy both or you lose is right on.

Blu-Ray is too important to Sony; Sony is too important to Blu-Ray. There is no exit strategy. Blu-ray needs to find a way to live harmoniously with HD-DVD or squash them. There is no other way.

This about sums up how the format wars will NOT end up (Blu-ray's extinction). If Blu-ray dies, so does the PS3. I just can't see it happening anytime soon, unless maybe every other studio goes HD DVD exclusive (that thought would have been laughable up until the time the Paramount decision was announced).

They don't have an exit strategy. After the shock and awe of this week I imagine that they are digging spider holes as we speak.

No.

Everyone keeps quoting the 2-1 sales ratio like it is gospel. Does anyone have any hard proof that the sales the studios see mirrors the 2-1 reported by Nielsen? Nielsen's ratio is only as good as the % of market share it covers. If Nielsen is covering only 50% of the HDM market, then the 2-1 could be entirely in error.

2-1 seems to be a talking point of BD fans, but I've yet to hear a studio confirm this disparity. I do believe WB has said both formats sel equally as well. From the studio perspective, they may be counting a disc bought by Toshiba for freebies, the same as a disc bought at retail. Who's to say this doesn't make the ration 1-1 from a studios POV?

See the Nielson thread. 2:1 is what it is.

See the Nielson thread. 2:1 is what it is.

Curious, what is your take on how the ratio could look within the next say, month?

Will the Paramount announcement impact the ratio even a bit?

I don't think it will sway alot in the short term. Paramount isn't releasing a lot of movies... But it will defintely help HD DVD in the long term. No question.

See the Nielson thread. 2:1 is what it is.
a)According to Home Media Research, the totals through July are 2.2 million in Blu-Ray and 1.5 million in HD DVD, or roughly 1.46:1

b) with the hardware differential of 5:1 I wouldn't brag up the sale edge.

Blu-Ray is too important to Sony; Sony is too important to Blu-Ray. There is no exit strategy. Blu-ray needs to find a way to live harmoniously with HD-DVD or squash them. There is no other way.
Well they could target the storage & gaming (where it really belongs) - but Sony did have more in mind.

Exactly. Blu-ray still has more major studios supporting it than HD DVD, a fact which has gone oddly unmentioned by a lot of people over the past few days.

techincally hddvd has always had the more studio support and with the added dreamworks and paramount news i think hddvd has 31 studios, bluray only 27

This war will go on for some time, there will not be a great penetration during that period ,HDM will never replace DVD if DVD sales at it's peak is the benchmark.

I think we all need to consider why we buy movies and attempt to extrapolate a little out to what most folks do.The confluence of lots of new and catalog titles becoming availasble at low cost, a small convenient format and low cost players all resulted in the unexpected success of DVD. I for one will not rebuy like I did with SDDVD and I also know that the higher PQ and AQ afforded us through HDM will never happen with thousands of catalog titles that will never sell enough to afford restoration and high quality transfers. Additionally ,most folks ,IMO ,will have no reason to buy lots of catalog titles in HD that the convenient and inexpensive DVD allowed them to watch several times already.

I'm convinced that this whole HD thing is not going to touch DVD in it's prime it was a different time and that novelty is not possible to resurrect.

Art

I would love to see Sony and the BDA sit down with Toshiba and the DVD forum, and work something out.

Don't think it will happen tho.

PRICE...That is what will decide this thing. And stop believing that if 1 side wins we will have everything in HD it will not happen any sooner especially since BD is not finalized as a spec and most of the big BD studios want thier rootkits...I mean BD+ before they release any major titles. I laugh everytime i see the BD zealots post here when HD DVD makes a big move to counter all the FUD Sony spews out on a daily basis.

hahahahaha....let this war continue forever and ever...

ok, then let me ask this-

do you think Sony/BdAs strategy- knowing full well they would be competing to become the DVD successor- was predicated on a quick kill with the PS3 or for was going to be the result after a long tough battle?

Do you think they budgeted this battle out based on a belief that there would be years of street fighting, or do you think they sunk most of their budget into a weapon of mass destruction (the PS3)?
Or do you think that money and a budget doesn't matter and they will just come up with whatever funds it takes for how ever long it takes?


No, I think they are waiting to dump a truckload of FOX titles in stores just before Christmas.

Everyone keeps quoting the 2-1 sales ratio like it is gospel. Does anyone have any hard proof that the sales the studios see mirrors the 2-1 reported by Nielsen? Nielsen's ratio is only as good as the % of market share it covers. If Nielsen is covering only 50% of the HDM market, then the 2-1 could be entirely in error.

2-1 seems to be a talking point of BD fans, but I've yet to hear a studio confirm this disparity. I do believe WB has said both formats sel equally as well. From the studio perspective, they may be counting a disc bought by Toshiba for freebies, the same as a disc bought at retail. Who's to say this doesn't make the ration 1-1 from a studios POV?

Assuming it's accurate, 2-1 looks very good on paper but is fairly paltry when you consider the 9-1 advantage in Blu Ray hardware out there.

I certainly doubt Sony has an exit strategy regarding BD. They have really bet the farm on the technology, especially integrating the transport into a popular gaming device and being the primary developer of the format. They have much revenue to lose if they exited based on hardware, software, and royalties on the BD technology. If there would be an exit (not saying there will be), it will be when the PS4 comes out and not a moment sooner.

FOX is a company that I seriously believe (my opinion) has an exit strategy. If the reports are to be believed, they stopped releasing any movies on the BD platform due to BD+ being tested and finalized. Now that it's done, they have again announced titles. If BD+ is broken (and I believe a workaround will be in place quickly), they will more than likely stop all releases rather than offer them in another format. FOX is very protective of it's property, and I feel this would be their exit from all HD formats for the forseeable future, not just an exit from BD.

Disney I feel has the most possibility of becoming format neutral if anything happens. They have stated they are BD centric, and that's fine. They have held off releasing many of the jewels of their catalog, more than likely due to BD+ as well, as if there's any company out there more protective of their property than FOX, it's Disney. However, my belief is that if BD+ fails *and* something else happens to BD, then they would become format neutral and focus on developing some proprietary method to hinder rips, such as what they do with DVD today.

Warner has the best strategy, specifically with their TotalHD platform. I, for one, am really not sure about the technology stability, knowing full well how combos have been faring, but they seem to be the most flexible company in regards to going one way or another, or staying neutral. I think they have the best exit strategy going with either format.

I also have a hard time with the internet delivery of HD movies in the US. The United States has the lowest number of households with broadband *available* to them. And our broadband doesn't even match the bandwidth available in other countries. I doubt the infrastructure will be available for quite some time. Also, with the announcements today regarding a 1TB disc with red laser technology (5TB with blue laser) on a single optical disc, I believe the optical disc is far from dead. Also, after experiencing more than one HDD failure (one as recently as yesterday...yes, there are backups), I can't see downloads being a primary delivery mechanism.

Ed

If OP didn't own both formats, I would have thought this post was yet another HDDVD fanboy attempt at kicking the rival format - but I guess I'll have to buy that you are "neutral".

Anyways, BD sells more hardware (not to mention much better CE support), more software sales, they have (slightly) better studio support, retail and rental businesses support them more than HDDVD (Blockbuster, Target).

Even if the roles were reversed and HDDVD was leading the way, Sony would be extremely hard pressed to pull out. Not only have they made a huge gamble(..) on BD as a movie format, they even own studios using it, and based Playstation3 around it (The successor to one of the best selling consoles in history).

Assuming it's accurate, 2-1 looks very good on paper but is fairly paltry when you consider the 9-1 advantage in Blu Ray hardware out there.

Not sure why you think Sony was expecting great attach rates. Attach rates mean very little anyways. Total Sales is what counts, and let's see what attach rates toshiba will have when "all their laptops will have hddvd" as the hddvd camp is touting. If they truly ship 10 million laptops with hddvd, their attach rate will be horrible, unless of course they conveniently forget to add in laptops when counting attach rates...

Presumably, and this is a big if, Sony would have to see compelling evidence that the sales are going against them. Note that the red camp didn't flinch in April when sales were going 3:1 against them, so the expectation is that Sony and the BDA were to flinch, the sales numbers have to really turn against them.

There's some scenarios we can study from the top 20 box office of 2007 (including the scenario where Warner also flips).

Top 20 box office as per http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2007&p=.htm

All top 20
1 Spider-Man 3 Sony $336,530,303
2 Shrek the Third P/DW $321,012,359
3 PotC3 BV $307,771,457
4 Transformers P/DW $306,996,948
5 Harry Potter 4 WB $279,874,898
6 300 WB $210,614,939
7 Ratatouille BV $197,322,082
8 Bourne 3 Uni. $169,117,385
9 Wild Hogs BV $168,273,550
10 Simpsons Movie Fox $167,381,653
11 Knocked Up Uni. $147,391,295
12 DieHard 4 Fox $132,742,742
13 F4-2 RotSS Fox $131,176,060
14 BoG P/DW $118,245,842
15 Ocean's 13 WB $116,708,183
16 Ghost Rider Sony $115,802,596
17 Chuck and Larry Uni. $111,454,340
18 Hairspray 2007 NL $102,560,000
19 Evan Almighty Uni. $98,521,525
20 Meet the Robinsons BV $97,755,357

Blu-Exclusive movies
1 Spider-Man 3 Sony $336,530,303
3 PotC3 BV $307,771,457
7 Ratatouille BV $197,322,082
9 Wild Hogs BV $168,273,550
10 Simpsons Movie Fox $167,381,653
12 DieHard 4 Fox $132,742,742
13 F4-2 RotSS Fox $131,176,060
16 Ghost Rider Sony $115,802,596
20 Meet the Robinsons BV $97,755,357

Total : $1.655B blu-exclusive

Red-Before Paramount
8 Bourne 3 Uni. $169,117,385
11 Knocked Up Uni. $147,391,295
17 Chuck and Larry Uni. $111,454,340
19 Evan Almighty Uni. $98,521,525

Total : 0.5265B red-exclusive (pre-Paramount)
--- Primarily the reason why pundits thought xmas 2007 was going to be a bloodbath.

Red - After Paramount flips to red
2 Shrek the Third P/DW $321,012,359
4 Transformers P/DW $306,996,948
8 Bourne 3 Uni. $169,117,385
11 Knocked Up Uni. $147,391,295
14 BoG P/DW $118,245,842
17 Chuck and Larry Uni. $111,454,340
19 Evan Almighty Uni. $98,521,525
Total : 1.273B red exclusive (post-paramount)
--- Why I think the sales numbers will be 60:40 with Paramount gone from the blue-camp.

If Warner also flips.
2 Shrek the Third P/DW $321,012,359
4 Transformers P/DW $306,996,948
5 Harry Potter 4 WB $279,874,898
8 Bourne 3 Uni. $169,117,385
11 Knocked Up Uni. $147,391,295
14 BoG P/DW $118,245,842
15 Ocean's 13 WB $116,708,183
17 Chuck and Larry Uni. $111,454,340
18 Hairspray 2007 NL $102,560,000
19 Evan Almighty Uni. $98,521,525
Total : $1.772B (Paramount and if Warner goes red)
In this scenario, the sales ratios will probably flip to 45:55 in red's favor --- ignoring the types of movies, installed player base etc etc.


Notes
(1) -- 300 not counted as it is already released for both.
(2) -- Evan and Meet the Robinsons could both get bumped off top 20 but they essentially are close to cancelling each other out.
(3) -- I'm assuming NewLine being controlled by Warner essentially is going to follow WB.
Summary --- It looks like it will be a long dark winter for those waiting for unification.

I don't see many people addressing the OP's most significant points dealing with how much Sony is (possibly) losing on BR, and I think those are valid and important. I don't know how much data is known for certain, so I'm just speculating, but it does seem to me that Sony is losing a lot more on BR than Toshiba (I'm assuming they're the main player willing to shell out money and/or lose money on hardware). It's well known that Sony is losing money on the PS3 hardware. Their cheapest BR standalone player probably earns them a profit, but possibly not a big one, and I suspect it doesn't sell real well (personally, if I was going to buy a BR player for movies, I'd just pay the extra cash for a PS3).

If Sony's also subsidizing disc production, etc. then it gets worse. Eventually, they've got to answer to their shareholders.

I doubt they're talking exit-strategy now. It's still a bit early for that, they're stubborn, and they've still got some big-name studios as exclusives. But they're probably concerned about losing any other studio support and have been making the rounds to secure those agreements. This holiday could be big. I suspect we'll see Toshiba get the A3 under $200 at B&M's and spend some big marketing dollars. I don't see Sony getting their cheapest player down to that point. But I have a feeling that even $199 isn't cheap enough, given the split studio situation, Sony's better BR-support in places like Best Buy, and what I suspect is a mass-market apathy (i.e., DVD's still look awful good to them), for it to break through in a huge way this Xmas. Still, I predict the momentum is going in HD DVD's favor and a $199 player will result in HD DVD passing BR by a good margin after the holiday's are over.

At that point (Q1 2008), I predict we'll see one or more format-neutral studios go HD DVD exclusive and/or one or more Blu-ray exclusive studios go neutral. I further predict a change in Blockbuster's stance.

Full disclosure: I own a Toshiba D2 (i.e., Costco's branded version of the A2) and one movie. I can return the player to Costco for a full refund whenever I want. I have little desire to buy movies and am happy to rent them online, so while I would prefer to see HD DVD win, I don't really care that much either way.

I forgot to add...even if Blu-ray loses the war, Sony can take solace in the fact that their PS3 is still a viable game machine, music player, and can play downloaded videos/movies. So they're certainly not going to give up on the PS3 anytime soon. I do think that if they're spreading themselves too thin, their shareholders may want them to focus more on the gaming side of the PS3 and less on the movie side of Blu-ray. If they don't focus enough on that and sales of the PS3 fall too far behind the competition (which I know nothing about since I'm not really a gamer - so I'm not stating that they *are* falling behind expectations), this would hurt them significantly. So, bottom line...IMO, they *need* the PS3 to do well (even if it means throwing good money after bad) more than they *need* Blu-ray movies to survive.

If by continue to pile up 2-3x disc sales, and build on it, then yes, that is a good "exit" aka "victory" strategy that Sony, if not BDA, should be planning for.

This war will go on for some time, there will not be a great penetration during that period ,HDM will never replace DVD if DVD sales at it's peak is the benchmark.

I think we all need to consider why we buy movies and attempt to extrapolate a little out to what most folks do.The confluence of lots of new and catalog titles becoming availasble at low cost, a small convenient format and low cost players all resulted in the unexpected success of DVD. I for one will not rebuy like I did with SDDVD and I also know that the higher PQ and AQ afforded us through HDM will never happen with thousands of catalog titles that will never sell enough to afford restoration and high quality transfers. Additionally ,most folks ,IMO ,will have no reason to buy lots of catalog titles in HD that the convenient and inexpensive DVD allowed them to watch several times already.

I'm convinced that this whole HD thing is not going to touch DVD in it's prime it was a different time and that novelty is not possible to resurrect.

Art

Your lack of faith is disturbing.. ;) I hope you are wrong with this prediction Art. As it stands, I will have to say that the more HDTV's sell and the more space Blu-Ray and HD-DVD gets alloted at Best Buy, Circuit City, Target, Walmart.. etc etc.. I believe it is inevitable that the transition to replace SD-DVD shelf space will occur. SD-DVD discounted box bins are all over the place and seem to work very well for releases that aren't selling. What this format war does is make people curious and ask questions to salesmen at the stores whom will try and push HD-DVD and Blu-ray when someone purchases an HDTV. Both Sony and Toshiba pay for end-caps and people get exposed. I do agree that most folks can't see a real difference with the store demo's vs regular SD-DVD's, however most people who buy a new HDTV in the next couple of years and in greater numbers each year will be able to see a difference with once SD-television switches over to HD. Perhaps a combo player and Warner becoming HD-DVD exclusive will mean both formats will survive and thrive independently if a stalemate between studio's continue. Personally I don't want it to come to that, however if TL51GB comes into existence and both would be even in bandwidth/space... Then I wouldn't care and be format neutral myself as well and accept combo players as the standard. However what I don't ever want to see is Warner's TotalHD hybrid frankendiscs. However it makes sense for them to use it if they remain neutral.

Presumably, and this is a big if, Sony would have to see compelling evidence that the sales are going against them. Note that the red camp didn't flinch in April when sales were going 3:1 against them, so the expectation is that Sony and the BDA were to flinch, the sales numbers have to really turn against them.

There's some scenarios we can study from the top 20 box office of 2007 (including the scenario where Warner also flips).

Top 20 box office as per http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2007&p=.htm

All top 20
1 Spider-Man 3 Sony $336,530,303
2 Shrek the Third P/DW $321,012,359
3 PotC3 BV $307,771,457
4 Transformers P/DW $306,996,948
5 Harry Potter 4 WB $279,874,898
6 300 WB $210,614,939
7 Ratatouille BV $197,322,082
8 Bourne 3 Uni. $169,117,385
9 Wild Hogs BV $168,273,550
10 Simpsons Movie Fox $167,381,653
11 Knocked Up Uni. $147,391,295
12 DieHard 4 Fox $132,742,742
13 F4-2 RotSS Fox $131,176,060
14 BoG P/DW $118,245,842
15 Ocean's 13 WB $116,708,183
16 Ghost Rider Sony $115,802,596
17 Chuck and Larry Uni. $111,454,340
18 Hairspray 2007 NL $102,560,000
19 Evan Almighty Uni. $98,521,525
20 Meet the Robinsons BV $97,755,357

Blu-Exclusive movies
1 Spider-Man 3 Sony $336,530,303
3 PotC3 BV $307,771,457
7 Ratatouille BV $197,322,082
9 Wild Hogs BV $168,273,550
10 Simpsons Movie Fox $167,381,653
12 DieHard 4 Fox $132,742,742
13 F4-2 RotSS Fox $131,176,060
16 Ghost Rider Sony $115,802,596
20 Meet the Robinsons BV $97,755,357

Total : $1.655B blu-exclusive

Red-Before Paramount
8 Bourne 3 Uni. $169,117,385
11 Knocked Up Uni. $147,391,295
17 Chuck and Larry Uni. $111,454,340
19 Evan Almighty Uni. $98,521,525

Total : 0.5265B red-exclusive (pre-Paramount)
--- Primarily the reason why pundits thought xmas 2007 was going to be a bloodbath.

Red - After Paramount flips to red
2 Shrek the Third P/DW $321,012,359
4 Transformers P/DW $306,996,948
8 Bourne 3 Uni. $169,117,385
11 Knocked Up Uni. $147,391,295
14 BoG P/DW $118,245,842
17 Chuck and Larry Uni. $111,454,340
19 Evan Almighty Uni. $98,521,525
Total : 1.273B red exclusive (post-paramount)
--- Why I think the sales numbers will be 60:40 with Paramount gone from the blue-camp.

If Warner also flips.
2 Shrek the Third P/DW $321,012,359
4 Transformers P/DW $306,996,948
5 Harry Potter 4 WB $279,874,898
8 Bourne 3 Uni. $169,117,385
11 Knocked Up Uni. $147,391,295
14 BoG P/DW $118,245,842
15 Ocean's 13 WB $116,708,183
17 Chuck and Larry Uni. $111,454,340
18 Hairspray 2007 NL $102,560,000
19 Evan Almighty Uni. $98,521,525
Total : $1.772B (Paramount and if Warner goes red)
In this scenario, the sales ratios will probably flip to 45:55 in red's favor --- ignoring the types of movies, installed player base etc etc.


Notes
(1) -- 300 not counted as it is already released for both.
(2) -- Evan and Meet the Robinsons could both get bumped off top 20 but they essentially are close to cancelling each other out.
(3) -- I'm assuming NewLine being controlled by Warner essentially is going to follow WB.
Summary --- It looks like it will be a long dark winter for those waiting for unification.

Nice summary :) However if Warner stays neutral and uses its TotalHD hybrids, then Blu-Ray's advantage and sales lead remain, even though it does slow down the rate at which the lead has been growing..

Disney I feel has the most possibility of becoming format neutral if anything happens. They have stated they are BD centric, and that's fine. They have held off releasing many of the jewels of their catalog, more than likely due to BD+ as well, as if there's any company out there more protective of their property than FOX, it's Disney. However, my belief is that if BD+ fails *and* something else happens to BD, then they would become format neutral and focus on developing some proprietary method to hinder rips, such as what they do with DVD today.

Ed

No way Disney will be neutral, especially now that Pixar is part of Disney. Steve Jobs hates MS.

Before the Paramount switch, HD-DVD would've eventually died if no move was made. Now with Paramount's move, it's anyone's ballgame. So, Blu-ray won't go away unless HD-DVD makes another big move, such as securing Warner.

If Warner does switch, the prediction is that the video scan numbers will flip towards the red side probably after Harry Potter ships.

But the ratios will be close to parity as then you have 3 majors vs 3 majors (if we consider MGM, Dreamworks, NewLine as satellite studios of their parent). And their box office grosses are close. Now, if 300 was not already released, that would be a different scenario.

Under either scenarios, we could go back a few years in their boxoffice grosses of the two sides to work this out, but a casual check of the numbers and I see basically everything split near the middle.

If Warner stays on I see things staying on near 60:40 if we take the simplistic approach and divide their boxoffice gross. (PS3 & all Player penetration not-witstanding)

Of course if any more studios were to play musical chairs with either side, this equation changes.

So there you have it. If Warner flips, the thing goes in favor of red probably around 45:55, but would be pretty much too close to call, If Warner stays neutral the thing stays in favor of blu, but would still be a close match of 60:40.

That's my theory.

Regardless of the logistics or business sense, the blue team likely has to roll out the 199 player just to answer the cost differential being floated around.

Anyone with a screw driver, can read chip part numbers, and enough sources to price out parts can have a good guess of the total component cost of say, a HD-A2 vs a BDP-S300. (Or any SOC reference board from SIGM/BRCM) except for the drive.

So unless the price delta in the optics of the drives are more expensive than a celeron with a host->PCI bridge+celeron-system dram, I would be very surprised if a HD-A2 costs a lot less to build than a BDP-S300. But the business side of it is something else though, there's usually reasonable expectation of profits and there's usually a markup when people build these things. But given the claims going around now, I expect BD would have to do something about the price of their cheapest player. Maybe they just need a new cheaper player.

Btw, there was a leaked number recently about > 200K/wk of BD sales in week of 08/05. That week is probably an anomaly (300) but if every week was 200K BD disks sold, that would be 10M BD disks/yr, which wouldn't be a small number. If I still need VC money, this is when I'd spin this as a annual run-rate of 10M disks. ;)

Despite being completely Anti-sony (not necessarily BD, just anti-sony) I don't see them doing this what so ever. It is going to take Warner going HD Ex, and at least one of Fox or Disney to go neutral or exl for them to wave the white flag.

IF Warner does go excl to HDDVD, then the battle is virtually even, and not lopsided to HDDVD favor.

Blu Ray's demise?

"Even if the format were to fail, it will still be useful as a conventional DVD player, with excellent up-conversion of discs for your HDTV," rationalized Universal exec Ken Graffeo.

I see Universal rationalizing HD DVD's demise...

It also sounds like Universal is going Blu Ray with that less-than-enthusiastic HD DVD comment!!!:D:D

Sony has a lot invested in BD. If BD goes down, the company will be in a LOT of trouble. The put a lot of eggs in the BD basket, and they can't really afford to have it fail.

I am completely neutral as I own neither BluRay or HD DVD (though I am very interested in getting one or the other quite soon).

But from a purely business standpoint, I think an earlier post summed it quite well.
Sony went out to conquer the next-gen DVD market, hoping for a big weapon in the PS3.
They never really clarified the marketing on the PS3 (game machine or movie player), and so they ended up fighting two battles.
Also, they didn't seem to take into account the popularity of Wii cutting into their projections.

So now they are fighting off xBox360 and Wii on one hand, while fighting off HD DVD on the other (with the same machine).

That's a lot to take on, esp. if your profits are already low or negative.

But another post points out (and I agree), that Sony has simply put too much resource into the Bluray technology to let it go so easily....

Oh well, I guess I'll stick with my upconverting player for now :)

Blu Ray's demise?

"Even if the format were to fail, it will still be useful as a conventional DVD player, with excellent up-conversion of discs for your HDTV," rationalized Universal exec Ken Graffeo.

I see Universal rationalizing HD DVD's demise...

It also sounds like Universal is going Blu Ray with that less-than-enthusiastic HD DVD comment!!!:D:D

Wow Bland, you really like that one huh? You keep saying that means Uni is turning BD, god thats funny. Now why on earth would they do that, if they did not BEFORE Paramount?

No way is Sony thinking any exit strategy at this time. I think the next big move will be theirs anyways, like someone said early they have too much invested and can't afford yet another failure on their part. This year and next are write offs for anyone folding, I think next year all of the cards will be played by both camps and late 2009 or early 2010 will the formula of a exit strategy come into play.

I am completely neutral as I own neither BluRay or HD DVD (though I am very interested in getting one or the other quite soon).

But from a purely business standpoint, I think an earlier post summed it quite well.
Sony went out to conquer the next-gen DVD market, hoping for a big weapon in the PS3.
They never really clarified the marketing on the PS3 (game machine or movie player), and so they ended up fighting two battles.
Also, they didn't seem to take into account the popularity of Wii cutting into their projections.

So now they are fighting off xBox360 and Wii on one hand, while fighting off HD DVD on the other (with the same machine).

That's a lot to take on, esp. if your profits are already low or negative.

But another post points out (and I agree), that Sony has simply put too much resource into the Bluray technology to let it go so easily....

Oh well, I guess I'll stick with my upconverting player for now :)

Yeah..what he said.

You generated numbers for hd-dvd exclusive + warner, but you never generated the blu-ray numbers for if warner stays neutral, which as of right now is the status quo. If you are going to quote these kinds of numbers, you should at least quote them based on the status-quo as we know it now.

Sony losing money
- on PS3's
- BD-50's
- players
- promotions

BD
- losing studios
- implementing BD+
- profiling players
- lacking consistent interactivity
- generally bad attitudes

Sony should have an exit strategy - oh computer storage!

A huge fallacy in your logic is that the studio-difference is what is accounting for the ratio difference. That is not the case. The ratio difference is caused primarily by the larger number of blu-ray players. Just look at dual-format movies like 300 to confirm that blu-ray is outselling hd-dvd 2:1 based purely on installed base, not on studio support.

Sony = The Titanic

Appearing on HD DVD in the near future ;)

first of all- I own both an A1 and a Sony BDP300.
I don't have a vested interest in either side winning or losing. I'm just fine with competition continuing to elicit the best prices and quality and selection from both camps.

that said, I've always felt that due to its 'from the ground up' nature, and what HD offers in general over sd (a 'want' vs a 'need')- that it was going to be a lot hard row to hoe for Bd than most people assumed.

I guess there are two types of people- the ones that think that HD on disc has to supplant dvd quickly otherwise it will never catch on-
while there are those (like me) that think that HD on disc being the rule and not the exception, is going to be the result of a long, very slow- but steady- transition.

If you are in the first camp, then you probably have a very militant view on the format war already- and may want to continue to believe that a Bd win is inevitable.
If you are in the second camp though- you have to wonder, as I do, how long Sony can throw good money after bad to eventually emerge victorious. They are currently subsidizing both the software (Bd50s continue to have lousy yields and no independent replicators can produce them...which should speak volumes) and they continue to subsidze the primary Bd hardware(the PS3) which has a poor attach rate.
And the latest blow is a major studio going from neutral to HD DVD exclusive. Content is king, and they've just lost a major content provider.

So the question is- do you think Sony will endlessly fuel Bd...or do you think they are looking for a way to gracefully exit and cut their losses- and if so ...how would they do it?


Sony subsidizing the PS3 is pretty much normal. Every game console ever made was sold for a loss upon release because they make the money back on the game sales. Sure, in the case of the PS3 it was estimated that 8 games needed to be sold before they would break even, but I suspect after more than a year, with various production cost reductions, that number is probably down to 3 or 4 games.

Let me make this clear, just because Sony is selling the player for a loss, doesn't mean they are losing money. Gillette sells really nice razors for dirt-cheap because they make all their money on the replacement blades. Ever notice that you can buy a really nice ink-jet printer now days for about $50? That isn't because they are that cheap to make, it's because the manufacturer makes all their money selling the ink afterwards.

This notion that Sony can't continue to subsidize the PS3 forever is nonsense. In fact, I expect that Sony will continue to sell the PS3 at a loss for years to come.

The same can likely be said for blu-ray players too, especially at this point in the market.

The PS3 will always use blu-ray. The PS3 will probably sell at least 50 million units over the next 5 years. Do you think HD-DVD is going to be anywhere near that high? The longer this format war goes on and consumers sit on the side-lines not sure which format is going to win, the slower stand-alone player sales will occur. The PS3 on the other hand is likely to experience accellerating sales growth as more games come into the market.

I expect Sony will match HD-DVD on price within 6 months (without any more subsidizing than Toshiba does). The only chance HD-DVD has would be to get another studio to go hd-dvd exclusive. Getting another studio to go neutral would do little for HD-DVD except give it another 6 months of life.

As I've always said, even a pitifully poor selling PS3 is going to dominate the hi-def player market and decide this war. The only chance HD-DVD has is to get Warner to go exclusive. If they pull that off, then they stand a chance, otherwise, it's just a matter of time.

Some people are funny..don't you understand that Warner's TotalHD was a SCAM..a distraction to Blu-Ray camp. They were in the HD DVD corner the WHOLE time.

This is why they WILL announce their back to the roots very soon. I'm 200% sure.

This was all part of the plan. Warner gets some money from the Blu-Ray crowd to offset the costs of testing HD DVD and continues to favor HD DVD in their releases. And now it will send a DEATH blow to Blu-Ray.

Nighty night! :D ;)

Sony is an expert at losing format wars and if the past is any indicator, they will continue to produce a dead format for all of eternity. They lie to their consumers about the BD HDDVD war being over but maybe we can accept it as ignorance because they probably sincerely believe it. Anyone remember UMD :D They still make those things.

A huge fallacy in your logic is that the studio-difference is what is accounting for the ratio difference. That is not the case. The ratio difference is caused primarily by the larger number of blu-ray players. Just look at dual-format movies like 300 to confirm that blu-ray is outselling hd-dvd 2:1 based purely on installed base, not on studio support.

That's a good point. But longer term, software does drive sales, and price of player is a concern if the players are priced below the PS3.

I expect even if Warner does flip, we might still be surprised by the nielsen numbers for many weeks to xmas as 300-BD has proven there's a lot of BD players out there.

But, even if there are $199 players in BD, it's likely the next milestone will be $150, $99, the price goalpost is a red herring, and Toshiba just keeps lowering the price of that player, maybe at some point, even the people who got coupons for that $99 HD-A2 could end up overpaying as the street pricing of those things just keep going down, or maybe it'll be about ethernet. Or maybe persistent storage.

The player can't be priced lower than the Paramount MSRP though, or that would be a bizarre scenario of people buying the player to get the free movies and chucking the player on ebay.

But, even if there are $199 players in BD, it's likely the next milestone will be $150, $99, the price goalpost is a red herring, and Toshiba just keeps lowering the price of that player, maybe at some point, even the people who got coupons for that $99 HD-A2 could end up overpaying as the street pricing of those things just keep going down, or maybe it'll be about ethernet. Or maybe persistent storage.

The player can't be priced lower than the Paramount MSRP though, or that would be a bizarre scenario of people buying the player to get the free movies and chucking the player on ebay.

I don't think it is safe to assume that Toshiba will always be able to price their player lower than any BD player. I know if I saw a $200 BD player and a $150 HD-DVD player, which one I bought would have absolutely nothing to do with price (at that point), it would be all about which one I think was best supported (ie, had the most movies I wanted).

The PS3 will probably sell at least 50 million units over the next 5 years.

A wet dream

The PS3 will probably sell at least 50 million units over the next 5 years.What?

Sony doesn't need one. They will stay exclusive for a year or two like they did with Betamax. Then with the players,software and recorders debugged, it will become the successor to the outdated equipment in the broadcasting industry.

The real question is whether or not Sony will support HD DVD playback on the PS3 and Blu-ray players when a dual HD Format world becomes an inescapable reality. I'm pretty sure that none of their DVD players support DVD-Audio, but HD audio is a slight different animal altogether.

Edit: And you could say the same thing about Toshiba and MS supporting BD playback for that matter.

A wet dream

Hasn't Sony sold twice that many PS2s worldwide?

I can't wait to photograph the 1st PS3 HD DVD addon and link it to all these posts when it comes.

I can't wait to photograph the 1st PS3 HD DVD addon and link it to all these posts when it comes.

No need. The PS4 will be HD-DVD. :p

Sony had a good run with PS1 and PS2, the PS3 is the flop of the century, worse than the Dreamcast or Saturn.

I don't think it is safe to assume that Toshiba will always be able to price their player lower than any BD player. I know if I saw a $200 BD player and a $150 HD-DVD player, which one I bought would have absolutely nothing to do with price (at that point), it would be all about which one I think was best supported (ie, had the most movies I wanted).

Toshiba's price advantage will be short lived. There is no technical reason why both players should not be similar in price.

Sony had a good run with PS1 and PS2, the PS3 is the flop of the century, worse than the Dreamcast or Saturn.

Shouldn't you put a smiley face on that since your comment is a complete joke?

Hasn't Sony sold twice that many PS2s worldwide?

There are 100 million PS2s worldwide and still growing.

Many of those people will eventually upgrade. Gee, wouldn't it be nice to get an amazing high-tech machine that a) works b) is backwards compatible? Sounds like Sony has a winning strategy

Toshiba's price advantage has already lasted 1.5 years, and is going to last another year at the least.

The value represented by HD DVD is far better than BD, and this will lead more consumers into the fray. Having two additional HD DVD-exclusive studios has given massive validation to the longevity of HD DVD as a viable format.

The bluray camp's strategy was always predicated on a very "quick win" - with the PS3 doing massive initial sales and very high software sales to PS3 owners. The BDA forcasts to the Studios was that BD would be outselling HD DVD by 3.5 to 1 by the end of this year. This prediction, while certainly unattainable before, has now COMPLETELY gone up in smoke as a result of the decisions by Paramount and Dreamworks.

The Nielsen First Alert numbers include Sony.com's Bluray movie sales, which they push very heavily by email broadcasts (I know this, as I am on their email list). As such, it may APPEAR that, because BD sales were 65:35 in BD's favour, that neutral studios were making more profit on BD disc sales...

However, that assumption would probably be wrong... given the higher authoring and mastering costs for the BD format, more of the profits would be destroyed for the BD sales than for the HD DVD sales.

EDIT - forgot this point - Furthermore, the Nielsen First Alert numbers could be skewed by the Sony.com bluray sales, and actual overall sales of the formats could be MUCH closer to 50:50 than they currently *seem* to be. This would mean that there is actually far more profit being made by the HD DVD sales, and could EASILY explain Paramount's and Dreamworks' decisions.

Also, the only place where a studio could get 50 gig dual-layer BDs manufactured right now has been Sony. Not good for most of the other studios - let's not forget that Sony Pictures is a competitor. And the yields on BD 50s are still said to suck royally - so which independent replication company in their right mind would invest many millions of dollars to install BD 50 production lines when yields are so bad, and while Sony itself is subsidising BD50 replication on their own lines.

Once again, it would seem that Sony is the victim of flawed and incomplete technology...

Had the technology been ready when the war started, they would have likely "won" - but it wasn't. The manufacturing was unresolved, and is still not working properly. The players weren't ready, and they settled for "stopgap" specs which could not compete. And the prices and costs were too high to compete, not only from the perspective of the consumers, but also from that of the manufacturers and, as we now see with paramount and Dreamworks, even for the studios.

Unfortunately, I do not think that Sony has even *remotely* considered an exit strategy, even tho it would be irresponsible of them not to. I feel that they will continue to throw A LOT of good money after bad, no matter how bad that may turn out to be for the company and the shareholders in the long run.

Let's not forget, Sony's attitude towards controlling the media for distribution of these HD films does not appear to be different to their attitude towards DRM and consumers. The distrust of their motives and "limits" to their actions may not just be shared by a few familiar consumers, but by some big studios also, who may feel that they, ultimately, may be at the mercy of Sony, or their continued "incentives".

Sony's past is littered with attempts to create dominant distribution media standards, in order to tap IP revenue - and I don't see how this could go un-noticed by the more savvy players in the market.

The Paramount and Dreamworks decisions have truly *rocked* the BDA players, particularly Sony. This decision has come FAR earlier than ANYONE had reasonably expected. And it is from two studios that many people here were not even considering to be "at risk". And it has put an arrow right thru the heart

It cannot be long before some BD-exclusive studios move to place one foot into the HD DVD side, to protect themselves for the future. I don't want to speculate who these studios might be, but news will come quicker than we suspected...

Yes, competition is very good...

I probably should have clarified that I don't believe that either of the two camps is going anywhere for the next couple of years.
I expect both to still be around at the end of 2009 at the very least.

I was thinking more along the lines of a long term plan to transition out of a money losing proposition, and concentrating more on Bd aspects that could provide a stronger ROI. An example would be moving away from costly Bd50s and using more Bd25s. or moving away from movies on Bdroms and more towards games (by selling off movie assets and aquiring 3rd party game production houses) etc.
Dear Paulidan,

If you know technology advancement, BD50 will be just a common and cheap one within few years. You know how much 1G byte flash worth few years ago ?

Best regards,

Curious, what is your take on how the ratio could look within the next say, month?

Will the Paramount announcement impact the ratio even a bit?


There should be spike in Blu-ray sales in the next month, as Blu-ray owners grab as many Paramount Blu-ray titles as they can get before they go extinct.

Toshiba's price advantage will be short lived. There is no technical reason why both players should not be similar in price.
Actually, that is incorrect.

There are a couple of very good reasons why the BD players will be more expensive...

First, the Bluray optical pickup assemblies have to be manufactured to be able to change focus to handle a wider range of focal depths in the disk, since they have to handle the deeper DVD layers, in addition to the shallower BD layers. HD DVD players only have to handle the DVD depths. The other way for BD players to circumvent this is to have TWO (and sometimes THREE) pickup lasers, which is still more expensive.

Second, the "reference designs" used by the HD DVD camp ensure that development and "bringing to market" of HD DVD player designs is less complicated and less expensive than that of the various BD designs.

In the HD DVD camp, the players are now running Windows CE and Microsoft appears to have worked closely with Broadcom to create designs that can be dropped very easily into a variety of configurations. This is in direct contrast to the "eclectic" mix (to be kind) of design philosophies now sen in the bluray camp. All these different CPUs and parts, and chipsets, with all sorts of versions of OS software - NOT to Mention, all the different compilations of Java code - all of which still have to be tested with lots of different movies that aren't yet released.

This is FURTHER compounded by THREE different players specs - 1.0, 1.1 and 2.0 - which call for different hardware and software capabilities, and which ALL have to yet be independently developed and tested. In addition, the VERY minimal "minimum player requirements" of the BD player specs still do not mandate TruHD or DTS decoding, nor network ports - causing further fracturing of development efforts, and dividing the testing capabilities of the respective manufacturers.

Contrast this with the HD DVD player specs, which seem purpose-designed to get *directly* to core reference designs that can by cheaply and easily brought to market. All HD DVD players must have 2 channel TruHD decoding - yet almost *no-one* makes a chipset that *only* decodes 2 channels - so this effectively forces all manufacturers to have 5.1 TruHD as a minimum.

Therefore, the only real product differentiation that manufacturers of HD DVD players will have to deal with are perhaps: (1) Configuration of analog outputs (2.0, 5.1, 7.1) (2) Additiona of DTS HD decoding (3) Playback of DVD-A and/or SACD (4) Playback of BD (5) Network Media Player functionality

This makes the cost of entry to HD DVD much less expensive, yet still leaves plenty of scope for development of higher end products.

-------------------

The above was a response to the issue of whether BD players could ever realistically hope to match HD DVD player prices.

However, one must ALSO consider the higher development costs inherent to Bluray production for the studios. Not only are there THREE (as opposed to ONE) player specs with Bluray, but the various different CPU and OS platforms mean a much more convoluted production and testing process for the studios.

Furthermore, the low standards for minimum requirements for BD players have been a factor in most BD releases to date having only a old-tyme DD track, with PCM as a backup, as well as for the lack of advanced interactive content on BD discs, even when the equivalent HD DVD release DOES.

Sony cannot keep the production subsidies going for very long, because the sales volumes are starting to increase to VERY meaningful levels. It's going to start hurting a lot...

Dear Paulidan,

If you know technology advancement, BD50 will be just a common and cheap one within few years. You know how much 1G byte flash worth few years ago ?

Best regards,
Dare I suggest (or is that "Dear I" :) ) that "a few years" will be FAR too late...?

There will be Chinese Blu-Ray players. They will be cheap. And no, no one that buys a $200 player cares if they have PIP. They just want the movie to play. And every Blu-Ray movie will play in every BD player made (something that likely won't be true of HD-DVD if they introduce a triple-layer disc).

Again, I'm pained by all the pining for cheap hardware on an enthusiast board.

There are 100 million PS2s worldwide and still growing.

Many of those people will eventually upgrade. Gee, wouldn't it be nice to get an amazing high-tech machine that a) works b) is backwards compatible? Sounds like Sony has a winning strategy

Backwards compatible?! LOL! Are you kidding me? Is that why the compatibility on new PS3s will be like 60% since they took out the Emotion engine. Face it they are losing compatibility just like XBox 360 did, the only difference is that 100 million PS2s were sold because of the $99 price.

You are delusional if you think that at the rate they selling PS3 now they will be able to come anywhere near $99 or even $199. You are very optimistic to assume that the whole industry will keep pushing a format that is already failing miserably.

If this year Sony gets only 5 games it's over for PS3 as a gaming console. Supporting your console almost exclusively with your own games is a recipe for a disaster. Just ask SEGA.

As I said many times, being a jack of all trades assures that you are not great at any of them individually. This is life's truth and famous saying.

How in the world Sony management thought they will make PS3 a succesful gaming platform, a media center, a computer, a hi-def player and make it successful in all of them. No wonder it's a flop.

There will be Chinese Blu-Ray players. They will be cheap. And no, no one that buys a $200 player cares if they have PIP. They just want the movie to play. And every Blu-Ray movie will play in every BD player made (something that likely won't be true of HD-DVD if they introduce a triple-layer disc).

Again, I'm pained by all the pining for cheap hardware on an enthusiast board.

Jesus, I just can't believe that people can make statements like this.

I guess denial and Blu kool-aid did the irreversible damage. I don't have other explanation.

There will be Chinese Blu-Ray players. They will be cheap. And no, no one that buys a $200 player cares if they have PIP.

This being the next gen, for $200 it damn well better have PIP! To sell to me with fewer features, you need an even CHEAPER price!

Sony subsidizing the PS3 is pretty much normal. Every game console ever made was sold for a loss upon release because they make the money back on the game sales. Sure, in the case of the PS3 it was estimated that 8 games needed to be sold before they would break even, but I suspect after more than a year, with various production cost reductions, that number is probably down to 3 or 4 games.

Let me make this clear, just because Sony is selling the player for a loss, doesn't mean they are losing money. Gillette sells really nice razors for dirt-cheap because they make all their money on the replacement blades. Ever notice that you can buy a really nice ink-jet printer now days for about $50? That isn't because they are that cheap to make, it's because the manufacturer makes all their money selling the ink afterwards.

This notion that Sony can't continue to subsidize the PS3 forever is nonsense. In fact, I expect that Sony will continue to sell the PS3 at a loss for years to come.

The same can likely be said for blu-ray players too, especially at this point in the market.

The PS3 will always use blu-ray. The PS3 will probably sell at least 50 million units over the next 5 years. Do you think HD-DVD is going to be anywhere near that high? The longer this format war goes on and consumers sit on the side-lines not sure which format is going to win, the slower stand-alone player sales will occur. The PS3 on the other hand is likely to experience accellerating sales growth as more games come into the market.

I expect Sony will match HD-DVD on price within 6 months (without any more subsidizing than Toshiba does). The only chance HD-DVD has would be to get another studio to go hd-dvd exclusive. Getting another studio to go neutral would do little for HD-DVD except give it another 6 months of life.

As I've always said, even a pitifully poor selling PS3 is going to dominate the hi-def player market and decide this war. The only chance HD-DVD has is to get Warner to go exclusive. If they pull that off, then they stand a chance, otherwise, it's just a matter of time.

This analysis seems pretty much, if not totally, off the mark...:rolleyes:

ze the PS3 forever is nonsense. In fact, I expect that Sony will continue to sell the PS3 at a loss for years to come.


Sony doesn't need to. The PS3 will break even on manufacturing costs at the end of this year just like the PS2 did at the one year mark. The BluRay manufacturing prices have are will continue to plummet as the volume continues to go up, the removal of the EE hardware, and the usual chip shrinks/manufacturing improvements that Sony is so good at.

There will be Chinese Blu-Ray players. They will be cheap. And no, no one that buys a $200 player cares if they have PIP. They just want the movie to play. And every Blu-Ray movie will play in every BD player made (something that likely won't be true of HD-DVD if they introduce a triple-layer disc).

Again, I'm pained by all the pining for cheap hardware on an enthusiast board.
Like this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gQG4OFgrpA

That should make the consumer happy.

I can't wait to photograph the 1st PS3 HD DVD addon and link it to all these posts when it comes.

I remember seeing the very first Sony VHS player. Never thought I'd see that either.

Sony losing money
- on PS3's
- BD-50's
- players
- promotions

BD
- losing studios
- implementing BD+
- profiling players
- lacking consistent interactivity
- generally bad attitudes

Sony should have an exit strategy - oh computer storage!

My profitable Sony stock says otherwise. And PiP doesn't seem to matter as much as some HD-DVD campers thought. Therefore, a profile 1.0 player will still let you enjoy the 1.1 movie and non-Pip extras.

It's funny, the string of good news in the last few months for Blu Ray had many supporters claiming the end of HD DVD, which was shrilly opposed. The Paramount switch is good news for HD DVD, but it is hardly a killing blow or even a serious one until Paramount starts churning out content at a prodigious rate. I'd at least wait until the ratio flips to your favor to begin talk such as this thread.

Again, I'm pained by all the pining for cheap hardware on an enthusiast board.
It's because cheap pricing means widespread adoption and success of the format - which will result in far more releases, which benefits us all.

Don't worry, there will still be some great high-end HD DVD equipment available - just be thankful that the HD DVD minimum player specs mean that even the cheapest player will be an absolute marvel :)

Actually, that is incorrect.

There are a couple of very good reasons why the BD players will be more expensive...


Let's see, componentwise, both players are extremely similar except for the optical pickup unit. Do you really believe that the BD OPU is $200 more expensive than hd dvd? In fact, hd dvd players actually seem like they should be more expensive since they all have a secondary video decoder as well as persistant storage.