Research Group: Blu-ray Still Wins
Understanding & Solutions says Paramount's backing of HD DVD will not change the final outcome.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (August 23, 2007) -- Blu-ray will still win the high-def disc format war against rival HD DVD despite Paramount's decision to back HD DVD exclusively.

That's the verdict from the UK-based research firm Understanding & Solutions, as reported by Video Business.

Paramount and DreamWorks Animation this week stunned the high-def world by announcing they will only release titles in HD DVD. Paramount had previously offered films in both formats while DreamWorks had yet to enter the high-def battle.

Some analysts have speculated that Paramount's decision will extend the format war for at least another year or two because both sides now have more than one studio behind it.

But Jim Bottoms, Understanding & Solutions' director, cautioned that Paramount's decision does not add any new titles to the HD DVD catalog; it only subtracts films from Blu-ray. He added that Blu-ray still has the exclusive backing of four major studios while HD DVD has only two.

“The weight of industry support is still very much behind Blu-ray,” said Bottoms, according to Video Business. “Fifty-eight percent of the high-def market comes from Blu-ray-exclusive business."

He said that Sony's PlayStation 3, which has a Blu-ray player inside, will continue to give the format a major edge in home penetration.

“We have gone on record before that BD format is most likely to succeed, and we don’t believe (the Paramount/DreamWorks decision) will change that outcome,” said Bottoms.

Bottoms said his research group had previously predicted that the format war would be decided by early next year. But he acknowledged that Paramount's decision could prolong the battle.
http://www.tvpredictions.com/blurayresearch082307.htm

~Josh

Usually reports from research groups are exclusive, private and cost an arm and a leg. Any chance BDA paid for this and told them what to say?

Wow, you are in serious damage control mode this morning beat..

/golfclap

Wow, Josh is kicking the damage control into overdrive today! He must be trying to win favor back over at blu-ray.com.

I'm neutral but if BR wins it'll be when a new UNIFIED format comes out 10+ yrs from now with DVD still the victor.

I'll be happy with my HD-A2 I purchased last night and waiting on the ps3 to drop below $400 and good games are out so I can enjoy the BR side as well.

:)

So BR yet again has the victory TODAY, based on TODAYS scenerio, an all to common trend - people simply refuse to acknowledge that the playing field will change again and again, this time next week could be an entirely different game...christ I hope Warner drives a steak through their heart already, but I suppose they'd still say they've won for the 6th time, lol...

Whatever helps you blu-boys sleep at night...

Who financed the 'study'?

How did they get good data after only a few days of 'research'?

I support both formats, and don't care which one wins. But to suggest that Blu-ray hasn't lost some momentum since Monday's announcement is ludicrous. Both formats will be around for a long time.

"Wow, Josh is kicking the damage control into overdrive today! He must be trying to win favor back over at blu-ray.com."

Yea you'd think after the beating he took on blu-ray.com, and the AVS forums on both HD-DVD and BLU-RAY he would want to lay low awhile.

Yesterday even an MS rep flat out called him a liar

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=11389695&postcount=70


" bkilian
Worshiper of TiVo

Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Kent, WA, 98031
Posts: 341

Quote:
Originally Posted by beatboy77 View Post
Around 1 hour a go. It appears Microsoft is offering a similar deal as they did to Paramount, although the number being thrown around is 225 Million.

~Josh


See, now I know you're lying. Microsoft offered no deal to Paramount. See, our team has this little thing called a budget, and it's a lot lower than $150 or $225 million. We're also part of the same division XBox is in, which has told investors it will be profitable this year. That would be difficult if we were spending, what, 375 million dollars according to you on studios that are already releasing on our format. With that kind of money we could have bought MGM, so why would we do this instead? Geez, some people will believe anything about Microsoft, but you have to realize that first and foremost, it's a business, and these deals would not make business sense for Microsoft.
__________________
Insider with Microsoft "

http://www.tvpredictions.com/blurayresearch082307.htm

~Josh

You are working over time since the Paramount anouncement. Are you sleeping at night? Was it really that much of a crushing blow?

That group is clearly just another BR supporter. "Bottoms said his research group had previously predicted that the format war would be decided by early next year." No one except Sony and these clowns really believed that, oh and you too.

Remind me not to use this firm to predict the market.

Is THIS the big news? :)

Another "research group", called PARAMOUNT and DREAMWORKS, concluded this week that HD DVD will be the winner. :)

Is THIS the big news? :)

haha

Bottoms said his research group had previously predicted that the format war would be decided by early next year. But he acknowledged that Paramount's decision could prolong the battle.
Early next year? Even without the Paramount decision to go HD DVD exclusive there was very little chance it was going to be decided by early next year.

I wonder how much this prediction cost?

josh, really give it a rest. This study means nothing, just like all these studies do. It also totally ignores the fact that Paramount will be releasing many films on HD only. The fact that it says the new deal will not result in any new titles for HD is laughable. Come on, lets have a modicum of reliablity.

Another "research group", called PARAMOUNT and DREAMWORKS, concluded this week that HD DVD will be the winner. :)


Or they concluded, "Holy ****, they are giving us how much? Where do I sign?"

You know, 1 of those 2 conclusions.........:D

No matter how much you seem to really dislike Josh, you guys hang on every word he types. It's fascinating.

On the subject of the study, I'd be interested to see who funded it and what data they used. That's usually more important than the results, especially with anything that isn't peer reviewed. It's extremely easy to manipulate statistics to say whatever you want to say. It's why I love pre-qualifying questions before a survey.

damn! i wasted 3 min. of my time removing josh from the ignore list, reading the useless BD propaganda and adding josh back on, then typing this post...

wast of banwith all around.

where is the big news??:mad:

"Bottoms said his research group had previously predicted that the format war would be decided by early next year. But he acknowledged that Paramount's decision could prolong the battle."

In other words: "We've been wrong before about this very issue. And we're really looking at this whole situation in a vacuum with no info about what happens with hardware sales in Q4 or studio affiliations in 2008."

In clearer words: "We're completely guessing here."



beat... you know full well that these firms that predict stuff like this are full of crap. I can link to a half dozen from early 2006 that said that HD DVD was going to win. Then, when it fell behind, they all said BD was going to win. Soon, they'll change again. It's a racket.

There's one floating around from a couple of years back that says that HDTV won't catch on with consumers. They're a joke.

Joseph
^^nice sig

just wait until warner chooses a side. ;)

the problem with the ps3 is that some people dont even know they have a BD player....

Joseph
^^nice sig

just wait until warner chooses a side. ;)

Thank you. If Warner chooses a side, and it's HD-DVD, I will be buying a player as soon as the Harry Potter titles are announced. It'd be suicide in my house not to. ;)

I'm shure they were able to study the impact of the P/DW move 'thouroughly' in half a day.

Took them at least a day to let it sink in that this actually happened.
Look around, most blu ray fanclowns are still running around like headless chickens with their pants on fire. :)

How much did they get for this bit of 'research'? 150,000 gbp? :p

Thank you. If Warner chooses a side, and it's HD-DVD, I will be buying a player as soon as the Harry Potter titles are announced. It'd be suicide in my house not to. ;)
I already have Goblet of Fire on HD DVD. Great disc. :)

http://www.satelliteguys.us/voom/Ilya/HDDVD/HarryPotterHDDVD.jpg

how do you have a real study only after two days of an announcement? wouldn't they need more than 48 hours of data in order to make an informed decision?

also isn't the studio breakup 4 to 3 (or 4 to 4 if you count paramount/DW as separate studios)

I already have Goblet of Fire on HD DVD. Great disc. :)

http://www.satelliteguys.us/voom/Ilya/HDDVD/HarryPotterHDDVD.jpg

Yes, I know. :)

http://i32.photobucket.com/albums/d3/consolenexus/HPGOF3.jpg

I sold it on ebay when I went BD only. BTW, it was one of the primary reasons why I went dual-format. We love Potter at my house.

^^^ Is the frame rate on GoF correct for US (NTSC) use, or does it have the Euro (PAL) framing with the attendant pitch shift?

“The weight of industry support is still very much behind Blu-ray,” said Bottoms, according to Video Business. “Fifty-eight percent of the high-def market comes from Blu-ray-exclusive business."

just to mince words....how does
58% = Weight of the Industry anyways...

lol... slightly more than half of a very small market = "weight of industry support".

These people are apparently trained to look at trends, yet can't see past what's right in front of them.

^^^ Is the frame rate on GoF correct for US (NTSC) use, or does it have the Euro (PAL) framing with the attendant pitch shift?

Not to threadjack, but I didn't notice any speedup on the 360 w/ add-on. Would it have been subtle or pretty pronounced?

I stop listening to research groups a long time ago, these are the same guys that stated that the PS3 would lead the industry with a few months and that the Wii had no chance, its obivous their research is flawed at best.

“The weight of industry support is still very much behind Blu-ray,” said Bottoms, according to Video Business. “Fifty-eight percent of the high-def market comes from Blu-ray-exclusive business."

just to mince words....how does
58% = Weight of the Industry anyways...


Reading comprehension people...

58% = BD Exclusive

that leaves 42%, right? How much of that 42% is neutral? I.e both formats...

READ AND THINK PEOPLE. SLOW DOWN AND THINK. dont just post junk.

Not to threadjack, but I didn't notice any speedup on the 360 w/ add-on. Would it have been subtle or pretty pronounced?
All European HD DVD discs are correctly mastered in 24p, just as the US discs are. So they should all be perfectly fine without any speedup.

Unfortunately the first wave of Studio Canal HD DVD discs were faulty and had high pitched audio, although they were also mastered at 24p. This is supposed to be fixed with the 2nd wave (not sure). Since GoF is Warner and not Studio Canal, there's no problem. GoF is perfectly fine.

^^^ Is the frame rate on GoF correct for US (NTSC) use, or does it have the Euro (PAL) framing with the attendant pitch shift?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that it's actually a North American disc, but sold in Europe.

Not that it matters though, since 1080p and NTSC/PAL have nothing to do with each other.

Understanding & Solutions and Bottom are the paid off consultants tht were therent a quote for the "Blu-ray wins" flyer from CES las January.

Their estimates were off by a factor of 10 IIRC.

I wonder how much this prediction cost? THey seemed to be also paid to be the only analysts quoted in the "Blu-Ray Wins" BDA flyer from CES

Reading comprehension people...

58% = BD Exclusive

that leaves 42%, right? How much of that 42% is neutral? I.e both formats...

.


... more than meets the eye apparently!

"Correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that it's actually a North American disc, but sold in Europe."

That is correct, I have the disc and there is an FBI warning at the start. Why would a disc originating in Europe have an FBI warning?

WB redirected these discs to Europe after deciding to release the Harry Potter series as a box set.

“The weight of industry support is still very much behind Blu-ray,” said Bottoms, according to Video Business. “Fifty-eight percent of the high-def market comes from Blu-ray-exclusive business."

just to mince words....how does
58% = Weight of the Industry anyways...

The guy is living in BR fantasy land (He said he predicted HD DVD would be dead by the beginning of next year!). There is no way that Warner, Universal, Paramount, Dreamworks, etc. make up only 42% of the market. 300 probably out sold Disney by itself!

Another "research group", called PARAMOUNT and DREAMWORKS, concluded this week that HD DVD will be the winner. :)

:D

I don't think the studios themselves count, the true power to win this war lies in the hands of BDA sponsored researchers...things are compelled to turn out any way that these "masters of mental mayhem" wish that they do. :D :D

I have just been given an urgent news bulletin....Betamax has won the war with VHS, our troubles are over.

~Josh


lmao

Wow, Josh is kicking the damage control into overdrive today! He must be trying to win favor back over at blu-ray.com.


LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
They kicked the **** out of him over there!!!!! :D

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
They kicked the **** out of him over there!!!!! :D no way :eek:

you have to be kidding

He is still there

from the site that shall not be named

I can understand your frustrations guys. Yesterday I heard from a reliable source that WB was seriously considering HD-DVD exclusivity, however, today that possibility seems to have cooled off quite a bit.

The original Blu-ray rumor remains and I have been discussing it with other insiders as we speak. I WILL NOT report it until I am sure it will go down.

~Josh If he heard that , possible about the VP stepping down, gotta give him slack as that would have many any BD fan freak. Warner going HD DVD only would be a tough one for Blu-ray.

Oh I see.

I thought you meant kicked him off the board.

They did beat him up though like in the barracks towel party scene form Full Metal Jacket

"But Jim Bottoms, Understanding & Solutions' director, cautioned that Paramount's decision does not add any new titles to the HD DVD catalog; it only subtracts films from Blu-ray."

Wow, thats one way of looking at it. So HD-DVD won't win the war, BD will just get subtracted from the market.

http://crave.cnet.com/8301-1_105-9763526-1.html

They were the only analyst rent a quote in the CES 2007 Blu-ray Today propaganda flyer too.

"Understanding & Solutions" has only been a paid hack for the BDA camp since the beginning.

They were dead wrong in their last big "prediction" about BD's "certain victory". And their new prediction will likely be shown to be just as wrong.

It's nothing but some quickly rustled-up "damage control" PR spin, IMO. The BD camp looks to be in complete panic, and desperate to get something out fast to get some press. Only a shame that the quickest thing they could get out was from these guys...

I have just been given an urgent news bulletin....Betamax has won the war with VHS, our troubles are over.

~Josh

lmao
HAH! :D :p Thank you - I enjoyed the levity!

Understanding & Solutions, Bill Hunt, beatboy77.... the BDA's project Hydra is on overdrive!

LOL

"But Jim Bottoms, Understanding & Solutions' director, cautioned that Paramount's decision does not add any new titles to the HD DVD catalog; it only subtracts films from Blu-ray."

Wow, thats one way of looking at it. So HD-DVD won't win the war, BD will just get subtracted from the market.
Understanding & Solutions's director, then, clearly has a problem reading his mother tongue.

It has been widely reported that Paramount will be launching an avalanche of HD DVD titles - and this was cited as being a reason for their HD DVD exclusive position. I think something like 30 new titles will be added this year.

He also seemed to have missed their press statement that they will NOT be replenishing ANY of the existing Bluray titles. This means that Bluray IS LOSING a lot of BD titles on sale.

U&S are a bunch of idiots for making statements like that in public, IMO. Bottoms up, Jim!

since there have yet to be any true consumer effects to the announcement (you can still buy titles, and no would have been BD titles have been released), how can you conduct a research survey that fast.

In less than a couple of days....with no time for the effects to take place. Try again in 6 months and we'll say. Not saying it isn't right, just seems way to early to do research on an announcement that has really had no effect on the average consumer (or even early adopter)

I already have Goblet of Fire on HD DVD. Great disc. :)

http://www.satelliteguys.us/voom/Ilya/HDDVD/HarryPotterHDDVD.jpg

Yepper, it's a doozy!::D

Time to change the BDA strategy.

Stop spending so much money on endcaps, media onslaughts and purchasing/contracting foreign research groups and put the money into R&D to get your players up to speed! Studios (even Sony's) are starting to release movies with TRUE-HD and hardly any of your players support it yet.

Isn't Josh the same punk that gave teh glowing review of a non-existant T2 disc on BD?

So where's an analyst firm that declares HD DVD victory after the Paramount news?

I already have Goblet of Fire on HD DVD. Great disc. :)

http://www.satelliteguys.us/voom/Ilya/HDDVD/HarryPotterHDDVD.jpg

got mine from Xploited long time ago as well..... :)

Project Hydra . . . .

So much for the myth of cutting off a head and two grow back in it's place!

:D

http://www.tvpredictions.com/blurayresearch082307.htm

~Josh


It's a supply and demand problem. There are way too many analyst firms and not enough analysts to go around. Hence why we find such poor analysis. I just read it and almost every point they make is poorly thought out - like they were paid to come up with a conclusion and then back-tracked from there. The goal was to find why BD will win. This is part of the BD marketing campaign....wonder how much all these guys are being paid to put out such BS.

It's a supply and demand problem. There are way too many analyst firms and not enough analysts to go around. Hence why we find such poor analysis. I just read it and almost every point they make is poorly thought out - like they were paid to come up with a conclusion and then back-tracked from there. The goal was to find why BD will win. This is part of the BD marketing campaign....wonder how much all these guys are being paid to put out such BS.

Plazman:

"You get what you pay for" - old addage. So for $500 you get a misinformed analysist.

But for $150 million - you get two studios!:p

I know the fans of the red format have been circling like flies on stink this past week. They haven't been able to win a week all year and now they want to wallow in the only good news they've had in ages. Go ahead fellas...lets see how long it lasts.

I know the fans of the red format have been circling like flies on stink this past week. They haven't been able to win a week all year and now they want to wallow in the only good news they've had in ages. Go ahead fellas...lets see how long it lasts.

This is only the beginning and if you think different I have a bridge to sell you and guess what? You can collect tolls!

CEDIA is coming up in two weeks. The official release of the Gen3 HD DVD players. How about the new Onkyo HD DVD player - could be there.

Samsung has already announced their Gen3 - Oops! . . . no Profile 1.1 yet. Pioneer just released it's Gen2 - the 94HD (sorry - no 1.1). Denon - the $2000 Profile 1.1 player (and ONLY 1.1 BD player announced to date BTW)

Phillips? In a world of hurt. Panasonic? Maybe something from them but the 10A is the 10 only with a factory firmware upgrade and 5 BD's in the box - still a Gen1 player. LG? They just cut the price of the DF player by $200 and it is neither HD DVD compliant nor BD compliant (no 1.1)

So that leaves Sony. What a pickle they are in. Sell a less expensive player and they kill PS3 sales. And will a new player actually be 1.1 compliant? At what cost?

I know the fans of the red format have been circling like flies on stink this past week. They haven't been able to win a week all year and now they want to wallow in the only good news they've had in ages. Go ahead fellas...lets see how long it lasts.

Out of curiosity, how long will this bitterness last?

Plazman:

"You get what you pay for" - old addage. So for $500 you get a misinformed analysist.

But for $150 million - you get two studios!:p

Very true. Very true.

Toshiba I heard are very good negotiators (not good marketers). I do expect other annoucements in Oct. :)

If we get a Batman Begins annoucement soon then Warner is neutral, if not....I'd be worried if I were the BDA. Remember WB was supposed to have closed out their BD backlog by now. Yet I believe they haven't made any progress at all, with The Matrix adding to the deficit.

Since you brought up the $150M deal, I believe WB is negotiating their BD 50 deal with Sony - and now WB definitely hold all the cards. So, I wonder how much they will ask to stay neutral (remember WB does everything on HD DVD first and then port to BD) ....BD-J and BD-Live etc are simply negotiating ploys to get further concessions and perhaps a bigger cut of the royalty pie, to compensate them for any loss on the DVD Forum side. So, between Fox, Disney and Warner....Sony and Panny will have to pony up some serious cash IMO. In fact the longer the format war drags on, the less leverage Sony has over the studios. I can bet Fox gets an extra compensation for every catalog title they are putting out.

Like they say, the king is usually killed by those who are close to him, rather than his enemy. The danger lies within. :)

Out of curiosity, how long will this bitterness last?

Until the next Pro HD DVD announcement - then it will get worse!:eek:

Most people on this forum can analyze the situation better than all these analysts which get paid to do it.

Very true. Very true.

Toshiba I heard are very good negotiators (not good marketers). I do expect other annoucements in Oct. :)

If we get a Batman Begins annoucement soon then Warner is neutral, if not....I'd be worried if I were the BDA. Remember WB was supposed to have closed out their BD backlog by now. Yet I believe they haven't made any progress at all, with The Matrix adding to the deficit.

Since you brought up the $150M deal, I believe WB is negotiating their BD 50 deal with Sony - and now WB definitely hold all the cards. So, I wonder how much they will ask to stay neutral (remember WB does everything on HD DVD first and then port to BD) ....BD-J and BD-Live etc are simply negotiating ploys to get further concessions and perhaps a bigger cut of the royalty pie, to compensate them for any loss on the DVD Forum side. So, between Fox, Disney and Warner....Sony and Panny will have to pony up some serious cash IMO. In fact the longer the format war drags on, the less leverage Sony has over the studios. I can bet Fox gets an extra compensation for every catalog title they are putting out.

Like they say, the king is usually killed by those who are close to him, rather than his enemy. The danger lies within. :)

WOW! That is really a profound statement! And True!

Very true. Very true.

Toshiba I heard are very good negotiators (not good marketers). I do expect other annoucements in Oct. :)

If we get a Batman Begins annoucement soon then Warner is neutral, if not....I'd be worried if I were the BDA. Remember WB was supposed to have closed out their BD backlog by now. Yet I believe they haven't made any progress at all, with The Matrix adding to the deficit.

Warner did announce one of their former HD DVD exclusives for Blu-Ray release, The Polar Express (http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Disc_Announcements/Warner/Polar_Express_to_Arrive_on_Blu-ray_this_Fall/868) however there is still no news on The Matrix, Batman, V for Vendetta, etc

They also announced Troy: Directors Cut for both formats, however the original Troy still doesn't have a Blu-Ray release date and since the directors cut is coming, well why both with Troy?

Warner did announce one of their former HD DVD exclusives for Blu-Ray release, The Polar Express (http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Disc_Announcements/Warner/Polar_Express_to_Arrive_on_Blu-ray_this_Fall/868) however there is still no news on The Matrix, Batman, V for Vendetta, etc

They also announced Troy: Directors Cut for both formats, however the original Troy still doesn't have a Blu-Ray release date and since the directors cut is coming, well why both with Troy?

So of the 21 remaining WB exclusive HD DVD titles . . . how many have IME?

So of the 21 remaining WB exclusive HD DVD titles . . . how many have IME?

I know V for Vendetta, Batman Begins and The Matrix Trilogy, and Smallville: Season 5 have IME (though Smallville only has IME on one episode). Forbidden Planet, Casablanca, and The Adventures of Robin Hood don't have IME.

Most people on this forum can analyze the situation better than all these analysts which get paid to do it.

Indeed. This seems to be the consulting companies web site (http://www.uands.com/) for those that are interested.

Very true. Very true.

Toshiba I heard are very good negotiators (not good marketers). I do expect other annoucements in Oct. :)

If we get a Batman Begins annoucement soon then Warner is neutral, if not....I'd be worried if I were the BDA. Remember WB was supposed to have closed out their BD backlog by now. Yet I believe they haven't made any progress at all, with The Matrix adding to the deficit.

Since you brought up the $150M deal, I believe WB is negotiating their BD 50 deal with Sony - and now WB definitely hold all the cards. So, I wonder how much they will ask to stay neutral (remember WB does everything on HD DVD first and then port to BD) ....BD-J and BD-Live etc are simply negotiating ploys to get further concessions and perhaps a bigger cut of the royalty pie, to compensate them for any loss on the DVD Forum side. So, between Fox, Disney and Warner....Sony and Panny will have to pony up some serious cash IMO. In fact the longer the format war drags on, the less leverage Sony has over the studios. I can bet Fox gets an extra compensation for every catalog title they are putting out.

Like they say, the king is usually killed by those who are close to him, rather than his enemy. The danger lies within. :) You write very good shakesperean plots :)

I know the fans of the red format have been circling like flies on stink this past week. They haven't been able to win a week all year and now they want to wallow in the only good news they've had in ages. Go ahead fellas...lets see how long it lasts.

You mean like this?
Engineers who’ve worked with both formats say Blu-ray is a pig to program. While extremely flexible, its programming language, BD-Java, requires lots of low-level code for even the simplest of instructions. The highly skilled programmers needed to do the job don’t exactly grow on trees. And because of the program’s complexity, even the best produce their share of bug-ridden software.

By comparison, writing software for HD DVD using Microsoft’s HDi interactive technology is a doddle—with one simple command doing the task of scores of lines of BD-Java. More importantly, HDi is the key to HD DVD’s better navigation around menus, and its instinctive ability to interact with the outside world.

So where's an analyst firm that declares HD DVD victory after the Paramount news?


.....perhaps the marketing department at Paramount did enough analysis to keep the DVD Forum satisfied?